Weather • Climate • Water Vol. 59 (2) - 2010 BulletinFeature articles | Interviews | News | Book reviews | Calendar www.wmo.int

60 years and Beyond

Interview with IMO Prize winner: Eugenia Kalnay 64

Stories from WMO Fellows around the world 67

World Meteorological Organization

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ISSN 0042-9767 Climate services for Chronicle of the Haiti 87 forecasting revolution 75 Boosting food security 82 youth Vwww.wmo.int/ Bulletin Contents The journal of the World Meteorological In this issue ...... 58 Organization The World Meteorological Organization in a changing world by Osvaldo F. Canziani ...... 59 Volume 59 (2) - 2010 Predictions will get sharper – Interview with Eugenia Kalnay ...... 64 Secretary-General M. Jarraud Deputy Secretary-General J. Lengoasa Assistant Secretary-General E. Manaenkova WMO Fellowship Programme builds a global cadre ...... 67 The United Republic of Tanzania: a wider lens for climate assessment The WMO Bulletin is published twice per year by Habiba I. Mtongori ...... 68 in English, French, Russian and Spanish The Gambia: new seasonal predictions put to work by Fatou Sima ...... 69 editions. Lithuania: new windows for European cooperation by Izolda Marcinonien˙e Editor J. Lengoasa and Judita Liukaityt˙e ...... 70 Associate Editor N. Domeisen From Sri Lanka to the world by G.B. Samarasinghe ...... 72

Editorial board Paraguay: promoting meteorology by Julián Báez Benítez ...... 73 J. Lengoasa (Chair) N. Domeisen (Secretary) Weather and climate forecasting: chronicle of a revolution G. Asrar (climate research) L. Barrie (atmospheric research and by Peter Lynch ...... 75 environment) G. Love (weather and disaster risk reduction) E. Manaenkova (policy, external relations) Improving cyclone warning R. Masters (development, regional activities) Case study: Philippines by Paula McCaslin, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Richard Swinbank B. Ryan (satellites) M. Sivakumar (climate) and Zoltan Toth ...... 79 A. Tyagi (water) J. Wilson (education and training) Wenjian Zhang (observing and information Boosting food security by Jim Salinger ...... 82 systems) Climate services can reverse downward spiral Subscription rates Case study: Haiti by Andrew Thow ...... 87 Surface mail Air mail 1 year CHF 60 CHF 85 2 years CHF 110 CHF 150 Index to WMO Bulletin 59 (2010) ...... 91 3 years CHF 145 CHF 195

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By any standards, the science of Sixty years… and beyond weather and climate has made outstanding progress. From Hippocrates to the climate challenges ahead, former Intergovern- 60 By the time WMO was created in the mental Panel on Climate Change mid-20th century, scientists had just official Osvaldo Canziani sketches a generated the first computer-based history of meteorology. This is comple- Agricultural meteorologists are forecasts. In 2010, weather forecasts mented by a chronicle of the revolution part of teams everywhere – from and climate predictions continue to in forecasting by Peter Lynch of the global to local levels – addressing protect millions of lives every day. University College Dublin. food security issues. Trends in the field over the last 60 years, and an From tracking ash from the Icelandic Researchers from the US, the UK and outlook for the future is shared by volcanic eruption, to restoring fore- Japan who tracked Typhoon Lupit in Jim Salinger, who recently headed casting services after the tragic 2009 give an example of the forecast- the WMO Commission for Agricultural Haitian earthquake, providing warn- ing revolution, sharing the experience Meteorology. ings for floods in Pakistan, research of the power of ensemble forecast- on the ozone hole, the state of the ing for cyclones. Getting such valuable information world’s climate and more – WMO, to the right users, in the right way, is national weather services, and a Eugenia Kalnay, winner of the a thread that runs through many of global network of meteorologists are 2009 International Meteorological these articles. on the front lines daily, with essen- Organization prize, provides insight tial information for decision-makers. on future trends – in “nowcasting” The WMO Bulletin team is listening, and seasonal forecasts – and tackles and adapting its own approach to This revolution in forecasting is broader societal issues like gender meet changing needs. We hope read- backed by rapid advances in tech- and demographics along the way. ers enjoy this issue and find it useful, nology, meteorological theory and and welcome suggestions for future applications that affect our daily lives. Encouraging the meteorological editions. Today, a forecast for ten days ahead community to share experiences is as accurate as the five-day fore- has been a success story. This issue cast of 1980. Meteorological data is captures what training and capacity Global Framework for regularly used to predict weather building has meant for six meteor- Climate Services conditions at sea, to chart the path ologists around the world who were of forest fire smoke or volcanic ash, to granted WMO fellowships over the The next important chapter in service assess road ice conditions, to advise years. to communities for WMO and partners on crop viability and much more. is the Global Framework for Climate Such cooperation, using state-of-the- Services. It captures the progress The forecasting revolution is also art prediction, is essential to address and aspirations of the world meteor- backed by a track record of interna- high-profile issues such as disaster ological community, and responds to tional collaboration. Many projects are risk reduction and food security. user needs, with a road map for the in development to harmonize, share years ahead. More on this topic will and communicate information, using In Haiti, people are more vulnerable be featured in our next issue. the power of high-speed computers, than ever after the January earth - the Internet and innovative dissemi- quake. This issue recounts how nation techniques. WMO and national weather serv - ices worked with Haitians to restore This story of scientific progress, coop- weather services before the hurri- eration and climate-related advocacy cane season, and continue to enable is recounted in our second WMO Haitians to develop a range of weather Bulletin 60th anniversary edition. and climate services.

58 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 The World Meteorological Organization in a changing world by Osvaldo F. Canziani1

People have always been interested Egyptians knew the periodicity of way to weather and climate services, in weather and climate. Climate the Nile floods. Pre-scientists, from operating today under the patronage defines the feasibility of farming, those of Chaldea and Mesopotamia, of WMO. cattle-raising, forestation and fish- to those of India and China, devoted ing. That no caravan of camels is time to assess weather situations. The history of meteorology moved seen in the Antarctic, nor schools Pre-Colombian civilizations were even faster, creating conditions under of piranhas in Titicaca Lake, means also busy with understanding rainfall which Professors Karl Bruhns of that different species require specific variations, particularly in arid regions Germany, Karl Jelinek of Austria and environments. It goes without saying of Mexico and the Andean plateau. Heinrich Wild of Switzerland proposed that deep changes in meteorological a preparatory meeting for a perma- conditions, whether through climate The winds of Kronos 2, blowing nent international body responsible variability or extreme events, create with the speed of this swift histor- for meteorological matters. hazards affecting the productivity of ical summary, bring us to the plants and animals. Renaissance. Meteorological instru- The First International Meteorological ments – such as the barometer, Congress was convened in Vienna thermometer, pluviometer, hygro- in 1873, approving a Permanent A quick history of meter and others – enabled isolated Committee which is the precursor meteoro logical measurements. of today’s WMO Executive Council. meteorology The International Meteorological Science developed faster in the 17th Organization was born. People too are adversely affected and 18th centuries. Boyle, Mariotte, by climate. The father of medicine, Franklin, Hadley, Lavoisier, Descartes, IMO worked successfully until a new Hippocrates, stated in 5th century BC Newton, as well as the earlier scien- global scenario, resulting from the that weather and climate are factors tists da Vinci, Galileo, Fibonacci, second World War, led politicians of illness or well-being. Euler, Ahmid al Buni, al Uqlidic si and to build new international bodies to others paved the road to scientific resolve socio-economic and political Until then, weather issues had been advancement and the development issues left by the world conflict. a matter of gods and demigods. In of meteorology as a science. the 4th century BC, Aristotle, in his The United Nations was created, and Meteorologica, took it out of myth- In the 1780s, the S o c i e t a s immediately afterwards the World ology, with the first scientific approach Meteorologica Palatina laid down the Meteorological Organization replaced to our atmosphere. basis of what is now a raison d´ être the International Meteorological of WMO: observation networks. The Organization. Ancient civilizations handled their invention of the electric telegraph by environmental questions quite well. Morse in 1843 further opened the It was an exciting time. The war had left a legacy of outstanding scien- tific and technological developments. 1 Based on a presentation by Osvaldo F. Canziani, former Co-Chair, Working Group II of Meteorological services – useful in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), on the occasion of the World Meteorological Day 2010. planning and operating activities of 2 Greek god of time armed forces on the ground, in the

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 59 The 1970s were marked by severe regional events, the worst of which was the Sahelian crisis, with recur- rent drought affecting 14 countries in western Africa. Rising oil prices created a political crisis. Local and regional pollution had global impli- cations. The most important were the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer – with the so-called Antarctic ozone hole – and global warming.

These events led to new pressures on the UN family of specialized agencies – the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United

© U.S. Weather Bureau Nations (FAO), the United Nations The 1960s marked progress in technology. This computer was used to process weather Educational, Scientific and Cultural data for forecasts and research in 1965. Organization (UNESCO), the World Health Organization (WHO) and WMO. sea and in the air – were recognized data processing systems opened new as a scientific undertaking in their vistas to exchange real-time infor- For the WMO agenda, it became own right. mation. These innovations brought increasingly clear that climate was the further adjustments to WMO’s likely factor influencing the amount responsibilities. of water, food and energy available to 1950-1980: WMO’s the growing world population. Many challenges emerged at this evolving role time, which WMO addressed using WMO had already created regional procedures in its Convention. offices in Africa, in Latin America In the early days, WMO’s responsibili- Hydro-meteorological processes and the Caribbean, and in Asia in ties, outlined in the WMO Convention, highlighted a need to improve 1967. This base proved helpful in served the basic purposes of this new water management due to climate the 1970s to serve regional needs. agency: change and better monitor its qual- The United Nations Development ity. The “green revolution” made Programme (UNDP) financed WMO • Coordinate, standardize and new demands on balancing water technical assistance missions and improve the global meteoro- needs, with demand for reliable, the UN Special Fund financed special logical and allied activities and better-distributed information on programmes to develop the national enhance the effective exchange rain-fed lands, surface and ground hydrometeorological services in many of meteorological and related water availability and improved developing countries. information between coun- water management. Changes in air tries, for the benefit of human quality led to a spread of infectious activities. diseases; this brought demand for Scientists track more meteoro logical information WMO immediately surpassed its to address health crises. WMO also climate change risks initial goal of providing weather data addressed urban issues (from heat and forecasts. The 1950s marked the islands to air conditioning to floods); The socio-economic impact of grow- beginning of the emancipation of rural floods and droughts affecting ing weather and climate events led colonial territories; WMO member- crops; and forestry issues. WMO to organize conferences on ship grew and the Organization the social and economic value of expanded activities to meet devel- To meet these challenges, WMO deep- meteorology and hydrology, and oping country needs. ened its partnership with multilateral to produce WMO technical notes bodies such as the United Nations on the importance of meteorology The 1960s marked progress in tech- Environment Programme (UNEP), the and climatology. The World Weather nology and interest in environmental United Nations Economic and Social Watch did its part, producing publi- sciences. The remarkable improve- Council (UN-ECOSOC) and the United cations to teach the organization ment of weather satellites and related Nations General Assembly. of meteorological and hydrological

60 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 observation, communications and Research showed that variations in The WMO Conference on the data processing systems; facilitating climate among regions were more Changing Atmosphere: Implications exchanges; and providing real-time critical than initially thought, with for Global Security (Toronto, 1988), data. These systems now support the vulnerability to increasing tempera- put the threatening panorama of United Nations International Strategy tures and rises in sea levels. global warming in black and white. for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) risk The final statement of the Toronto management activities. The impact of climate change started Conference pointed out: moving out of the domain of scientists. The Executive Committee (now Political and public awareness grew “Humanity is conducting an Executive Council) established a Panel regarding the socio-economic impact unintended, globally pervasive of Experts on Climate Change and of environmental changes. These experiment whose ultimate Variability to study climate change included loss of biodiversity due to consequences could be second trends and effects. Based on the deforestation and air and water pollu- only to a global nuclear war. conclusions, WMO organized a World tion; soil erosion and desertification; The Earth’s atmosphere is being Climate Conference in 1979. acid precipitation and depositions; changed at an unprecedented and global warming. rate by pollutants resulting from In the 1980s, the WMO Congress human activities, inefficient and approved the World Climate wasteful fossil fuel use and Programme, which became quickly WMO helps put the effect of rapid population operational. growth in many regions. These climate change on the changes represent a major The UN Vienna Convention (1985) and international agenda threat to international security its Montreal Protocol (1987) commit- and are already having harmful ted WMO to work on data processing WMO contributed to research on the consequences over many parts and archiving of ozone measure - causes of climate change in research of the globe...” ment networks. Valuable technical papers and in the conclusions of the assistance was provided to many UNEP/WMO/International Council for WMO held Regional Climate developing countries. Science (ICSU) Conferences. Conferences, convened by the World Climate Programme, in Asia and Western Pacific, Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. Success was possible due to the tight coor- dination WMO had developed with other UN agencies, particularly UNEP.

Other international efforts added social dimensions to WMO’s work. Among them were ICSU’s International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme and later, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, UN Human Development Reports, the Human Development Programme and the Millennium Development Goals.

New political context for environmental issues

In 1983, the United Nations Secretary- General, alerted by the critical regional and global events linked to human development, established the WMO research and conferences on the implications of the changing atmosphere helped UN Commission on Environment and put climate change on the international agenda. Development.

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 61 The commission published its report, (NASA) and the World Bank (1998) “What is not measured is not known as the Brundtland Report, in published Protecting Our Planet, known”, once said Niels Bohr, 1922 1987. It meant a remarkable step Securing Our Future, which linked Nobel Prize winner for Physics. The forward in the consideration of the global environmental issues and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate host of problems deriving from the human needs. Change (IPCC), in each of its four development path chosen by differ- assessment periods, commented ent social groups. on the lack of basic geophysical and WMO and climate biological information, especially in The interest of WMO in the environ- developing regions. WMO is help- ment crystallized before the United change ing to address this gap through the Nations convened the Conference on following programmes: the Human Environment in Stockholm Climate change is closely linked to in 1972. WMO as the UN agency responsible • World Climate Programme, for coordinating efforts on: a landmark in WMO’s action This leading action was initiated more in the science of climate than a decade before pollution, in • Meteorological data: genera- change; different environments and scales, tion, collection, transmission • World Weather Watch, would become the cause of prob - and processing; directly and through technical lems such as ozone depletion, climate • Common frameworks: creation commissions and regional change and technological disasters. and adoption of common associations, designs methods and practices for observation, communication After the United Nations Conference meteorological data; and data processing systems; on Environment and Development • Research and development: on • Global Climate Observation Conference (Rio, 1992), new UN weather and climate; System, which WMO also Conventions and secretariats were • Scientific development: for designs and operates. created, such as the United Nations atmospheric and hydrological Convention to Combat Desertification operational sciences and allied (UNCCD) and the United Nations applications (agrometeorology, The need for outreach Framework Convention on Climate pollution meteorology, etc.); Change (UNFCCC). WMO has • Education and training: for Climate change falls into the “think worked closely with them. The scientific, technical and global, act local” axiom. The regional UN Commission on Sustainable operational staff; implications vary greatly. This is Development (UNCSD) widened the • The promotion of research why the IPCC conclusions are scien- WMO responsibilities. and technological activities tifically relevant but not politically involving atmospheric and compulsory. At the end of the 20th century, hydrological sciences and UNEP, the National Aeronautics their applications (i.e. urban Greater outreach initiatives are and Space Administration (USA) hydrology). needed to brief decision-makers – especially from developing regions – on the degree of certainty of the IPCC conclusions, as well as the need Manage risk and seize opportunities for research based on sound meteoro- Invest in climate information logical information.

The transference of conclusions reached in the northern hemisphere to developing regions – where even the current climate and envi- ronmental conditions are not well known – are the origin of apocalyp- tic messages. As people leap to the wrong conclusions, this confuses and troubles the efforts of WMO and other UN agencies to solve crises resulting from wrong practices to WMO and its partners have an important outreach role to address climate challenges. produce and consume water and Above, image from a campaign to support the Global Framework for Climate Services. food resources.

62 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 These words do not aim to negate the WMO’s contribution to the climate challenge precautionary actions governments and private groups must undertake As an active participant in the IPCC endeavour for over 20 years, and for the sake of sustainability. They a developing country professional involved for more than 27 years in only make more evident that the three UN activities under the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), drivers of climate change are lead- WMO, UNDP, UNESCO and WHO, I have the obligation to express that ing to unacceptable carbon, water I see this 60th anniversary as the open door for a stronger WMO partic- and ecological footprints. These driv- ipation in addressing climate change, the definitive challenge to be ers are: faced by humanity during this century. • Population growth; WMO is a founding and supporting IPCC agency. It has made remarka- • Over-consumption; and ble contributions to address climate change through the World Climate • Lack of technology to produce Programme and World Weather Watch, as well as its departments of or consume resources and Hydrology and Water Resources, Education and Training and many services. other valuable programmes. Against this backdrop, sustainability WMO must work to better integrate its activity with the IPCC and their must be carefully considered by the allied research and technological bodies, of governmental and non- UN agencies, under the scientific governmental institutions. Social participation movements and NGOs and technological guidance of UN should be included. specialized agencies, where WMO and sister bodies and agencies are I see WMO’s role as follows. included.

1. Advocacy in scaling back. Recognize the limits of growth and help society adjust properly to global climate change, and its different regional and local implications.

2. Integrated, interdisciplinary scientific and social approaches. Lead action to integrate and encourage interdisciplinary treatment to define sustainable development trajectories based on good science, better technology, improved equity and greater world solidarity.

3. Risk management advocacy. Encourage national hydrometeoro- logical services to adhere to UNISDR risk management practices and ICSU efforts to improve its scientific aspects.

4. Adaptation and mitigation strategies for weather and water serv- ices. Help national hydrometeorological services – and through them, their governments and business sector – to develop appro- priate, nationally-specific adaptation and mitigation strategies for sustainable development.

5. Scientific assistance. Provide scientific analysis for climate engi- neering proposals, as was the case for weather modification techniques.

6. Legal aspects. Advise on the development of legal aspects related to weather and climate modification.

7. International coordination. Improve WMO’s already-strong connections with sister UN agencies and related programmes and projects.

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 63 Predictions will get sharper Title Interview with Eugenia Kalnay

Better forecasts are a great scientific Q: Could you give some real – just like in the northern hemisphere. achievement, and will get sharper, instances where your modelling That is a very important achievement. says Eugenia Kalnay, winner of the and predictions made a noticeable I come from Argentina, so it’s espe- 2009 International Meteorological difference to people? cially important for me. Organization Prize. WMO has been in the forefront of the scientific collabo- Dr Kalnay: As Director of the ration to make this possible. Getting Environmental Modelling Centre of Q: What are the challenges in news about forecasts to the right audi- the US Weather Service (National making forecasts for the southern ences is the next challenge. Centers for Environmental Prediction), hemisphere versus those in the I was in charge of improving models northern hemisphere? and data assimilation – the use of Q: How do you relate your the satellite and regular data – for Dr Kalnay: Forecasters did not have scientific work to the real world? improving forecasts. enough information. In the north, And how do you see it evolving in about 80 per cent was covered with the future? When I started, forecasts in the south- good observations; in the south - ern hemisphere were not very good ern hemisphere, 15-20 per cent Dr Kalnay: I’m lucky to be working in because we were not using satellite was covered. We have a very good atmospheric sciences. It’s a fascinat- data properly. Forecasts for the north- network of radiosondes in the north, ing subject. Working in meteorology ern hemisphere were good for three to except over the oceans. In the south, is like working in physics, but without five days, whereas those in the south- except for a few areas of land in South the danger of anybody saying, “So ern hemisphere were good for one to America, bits of southern Africa and why are you doing that? What is the three days. Thanks to the work of the Australia and New Zealand, there are use?” What we do is incredibly useful, world community of scientists, and no radiosondes. especially since it is not national or in particular the National Centers for regional, but global. I always feel Environmental Prediction, we were Another challenge is the way we used fortunate that I do physics and math- able to improve the forecasts in the satellite data until the early 1990s – ematics of the atmosphere and my southern hemisphere so that they it was trying to make satellite data work contributes to the betterment became essentially as good as those look like radiosondes. This was a of humanity. in the northern hemisphere. People in wrong approach. At the US National the southern hemisphere now benefit Weather Service, we pioneered use Meteorology has shown leader - from good five to seven day forecasts of satellite data without treating it as ship very early in having a world organization, when that was a new thought for science. But meteorol- WMO is totally essential for weather prediction. The ogy has always been international. WMO is totally essential for weather leadership of WMO in collating observations and prediction. The leadership of WMO in collating observations and in shar- sharing data and forecasts is unique in the world. ing data and forecasts is unique in the world.

64 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 radiosondes. That was a major break- through, introduced by my colleague Dr Eugenia Kalnay is winner of the 2009 John Derber. Nowadays, all the major International Meteorological Organization centres are similar – the southern Prize. The prize is WMO’s highest scientific hemisphere has the same level of distinction, and has been awarded annually accuracy as the northern hemisphere for over 50 years. – which is almost a miracle. Dr Kalnay is a leader in global numerical weather and climate prediction and analysis, Q: Do you think we’ve reached the including data assimilation and ensemble pinnacle in our ability to predict forecasting. Born in Argentina, she stud- the weather and climate? ied at the University of Buenos Aires. She then went on to the Massachusetts Institute Dr Kalnay: That’s a very good ques- of Technology in the USA, where she was the first woman to obtain a tion. In 1963, Lorenz introduced the PhD in meteorology, and the first female professor in the Department of idea that the atmosphere is chaotic and Meteorology there. therefore cannot be predicted forever, showing that we cannot go beyond two She is currently Distinguished University Professor in the Department weeks. Weather forecasts in the north- of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science at the University of Maryland. ern hemisphere were for one or two Previously she served as a director within the US National Weather days; a two-week forecast was out of Service, where she launched many successful projects related to seasonal the question. Nowadays, ten days is to interannual predictions, ensemble forecasting, variational data assim - the norm. So we are getting close to ilation and coastal ocean forecasting. Author of numerous publications, the limit of theoretically-based predict- she has received numerous awards, and is a member of the US National ability that is still true. Academy of Engineering.

Yet there are areas within predictabil- ity with a lot of room for improvement. and that knowledge is growing every become scientists when they have Short-range forecasts can become day due to more research. the inner desire to do research. They more precise, with more research, have a lot to contribute. Humankind better models and data assimilation. is much better off because the brain Instead of saying it will rain in the Q: Any message for women productivity in research has doubled afternoon, we should be able to say researchers and scientists in this by including women. rain from 1 to 3 p.m., or a severe storm field? will arrive the next day at 5.30 p.m. in a precise area. Dr Kalnay: I was the first woman Q: For the 60th anniversary to get a PhD in meteorology at of WMO, what would be your On longer-range forecasts, we have MIT, the Massachusetts Institute of message? a lot yet to exploit by doing research Technology. That was a big surprise to on the predictability of much slower me, because I come from Argentina, Dr Kalnay: Meteorology is so wonder- anomalies. El Niño is an example, and 30 to 40 per cent of students in ful in being global and interactive. where we make forecasts for six sciences were women. So I assumed We should all be proud of what WMO months, but should be able to make that the United States of America, has accomplished in its 60 years of good forecasts for at least a year. I being more advanced, would have existence. WMO has to be proud of think the next 20 years will see a major about 50 per cent women. But I was everything done in an international improvement in the current forecast the only one. arena - having countries share data, of the coupled ocean-atmosphere. and helping countries with less access The longer predictability for El Niño The world has changed so much for to technology and forecasts. The comes from the longer time scales of the better. I really believe women have sharing of data spells progress for the oceans, which has coupled insta- so much to give – both as scientists everybody. For instance, countries in bilities with the tropical atmosphere, and as people. The situation of women South America got access to global namely the El Niño phenomenon that has improved immensely. More than forecasts made in the northern hemi- influences the whole world. half of the university students in the sphere, and now some make their own USA tend to be women. But there are global and regional forecasts. With respect to long-term climate lower expectations, given that lead- prediction like climate change, we ership is still mainly in the hands of One of the highest triumphs in science also have a lot of knowledge already, men. Women should not hesitate to has been the way forecasts have

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 65 The most important challenge is to convey the information of forecasts, climate change and demographics – helping people understand why we must limit population growth and greenhouse gas emissions. © Alfred-Wegener-Institut © improved – from two days in the developing world so that people can northern hemisphere and half a day make use of this localized information. in the southern hemisphere, to being It is a responsibility from both sides. In other words accurate for a week or more. Education for girls is absolutely Radiosonde At the same time, we have so much essential for the welfare of developing Small measuring device with a more to give to humanity by doing countries. If girls do not go to school, radio transmitter and sensors research in climate change and extend- we miss half of our possibilities to for pressure, temperature and ing the forecasts to longer ranges by improve our society. The best way to humidity, carried by weather using predictability associated with address issues of demographics and balloons filled with helium or phenomena like the El Niño Southern climate change is through outreach hydrogen. Oscillation, the Madden-Julian to women and girls. Oscillation, soil moisture and snow El Niño/Southern Oscillation cover. The aim is to extract predict- Often called simply El Niño, this ability in every possible way. Q: How can we make stronger links climate pattern causes extreme between climate predictions and w e a t h e r s u c h a s fl o o d s , d r o u g h t s The most important challenge is to related services for people? and other weather disturbances convey the information of forecasts, in many regions around the climate change and demographics – Dr Kalnay: First, climate services and world. It occurs across the trop- helping people understand why we knowledge that people need is best ical Pacific Ocean, on average must limit population growth and provided by “chains of knowledge,” every five years (the period greenhouse gas emissions. We have where large research and operational varies from three to seven to transmit that information to all organizations carry out the research years). Surface temperature countries, and help those with the and model computations on a global variations of the tropical east- least opportunities and resources. scale. Regional climate centres can ern Pacific Ocean are coupled then explore these global products to with changing atmosphere, develop specific regional forecasts. cloud and rainfall patterns in Q: How can countries improve the tropical Indo-Pacific region. their response to better forecasts? Second, it is essential for each country What causes the swings is still to have organizations that can trans- under study. Dr Kalnay: The developed world late the results in a way that is useful has to help the developing coun - to users, such as farmers. Madden-Julian Oscillation tries, for a more fair distribution of This climate pattern is marked wealth. With the Internet, even poor Finally, it is important to convey both by a 30 to 60 day swing in the countries can get access, and have the forecasts and their uncertainties. tropical atmosphere, mainly knowledge distributed at least through For example, rather than stating, “this over the Indian and Pacific government institutions. We should summer will be dry,” we can say, “the Oceans. Unlike El Niño, it is a collaborate with multinational organ- odds that the summer will be dry have travelling pattern, moving east- izations and developed countries to increased to 60 per cent.” ward, with both enhanced and provide user-friendly information. suppressed tropical rains. The For example, farmers in develop - Knowledge moves in both directions oscillation has a strong impact ing countries should get short- and of the chain, where the understand- on Indian summer monsoons, medium-term forecasts for droughts, ing of local climate anomalies in a and a lesser one on North floods and temperatures. We also need country contributes to general under- American tropical cyclones. to support capacity-building in the standing of climate change.

66 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 WMO Fellowship Programme builds a global cadre

WMO has always put an accent on WMO Trust Fund, with considerable just entered their profession to those education and training – a key to support through coordination who are leaders in their institutions. success for technical development, as between WMO and development Some of the fellowships were granted well as for management, public affairs, partners and institutions. decades ago, while others were and administrative support. Training granted very recently. people in National Meteorological and These training partnerships are Hydrological Services to influence very useful, and demand is always Together, the stories show the their governments and citizens has greater than supply. The next priority impact that the WMO Fellowship become especially critical. for WMO is to reinforce training for Programme is making around the regional hubs in developing countries. world. The exchanges made possible The WMO Fellowship Programme has by fellowships enrich the candidates trained many managers in developing The WMO fellows featured in these and their organizations, as well as countries. Core funding is from the articles range from those who have their host institutions.

The United Republic of Tanzania

Sri Lanka

The Gambia

Lithuania

Paraguay

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 67 The United Republic of Tanzania: a wider lens for climate assessment by Habiba I. Mtongori, Tanzania Meteorological Agency

My career in meteorology started in 2002 when the Tanzania Meteorological Agency hired me as a trainee, after graduating with a bachelor’s degree in education, physics and mathematics. My subsequent postgraduate course in meteorology led me to be approved as meteorologist at the agency. Since then, I have worked as a weather fore- caster at the Central Forecasting Office.

Until recently, I never thought to take part in other branches of meteorology beyond weather forecasting, such as climatology, agrometeorology and hydrometeorology. Now I have been given a unique opportunity through WMO to develop my career in other fields, and am reaping great rewards for myself and for my country. Habiba I. Mtongori WMO aims to ensure there are enough trained staff for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services at global, scientists from different countries and to climate change. Among them is regional and national levels. I consider exchanged ideas. From agriculture to the Centre for Energy, Environment, myself lucky to be awarded a scholar- architecture, I learned just how multi- Science and Technology. The centre, ship from WMO that enabled me to disciplinary the climate issue is. through grants from Norway, has pursue a master’s degree in Applied offered a consultancy to assess and Meteorology in 2008. Through this Climatology has broadened my work develop climate change scenarios remarkable scholarship, I am proud substantially. After receiving my for Tanzania. As our institution is a to say that, apart from improving my master’s degree, I worked on various collaborating partner in this project, capacity in handling meteorological aspects of climate change impact I make sure the right meteoro logical issues scientifically and logically, my assessments for my institution, includ- information is applied to produce attitude towards being a meteorologist ing analysis and projection. realistic and reliable output for and a weather forecaster has changed adapta tion and mitigation measures. completely. I can now take charge in I’m an active member of our agency’s We also collaborate with the Sokoine different aspects of meteorology, climate change project research team. University of Agriculture under their such as climatology, agrometeoro- Our major task is to prepare project climate change project on adaptation logy, hydrometeorology and research. proposals on climate change impact and mitigation. assessments, study the impacts and This award enabled me to attend World design national adaptation measures. Frankly speaking, I consider these Climate Conference 3 in 2009, a major I am also an instructor at our National achievements a direct result of my benefit for me. I participated in a poster Meteorological Training Institute, Dar WMO fellowship. More than ever, I presentation, featuring my work to use es Salaam campus. am enjoying and am confident in my a regional climate model to project career. The knowledge and skills I have climate change for Tanzania for the I also work with Tanzanian institutions been acquiring are important to our years 2071 - 2100. I interacted with that assess adaptation and mitigation institution and to our country.

68 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 The Gambia: new seasonal predictions put to work by Fatou Sima, The Gambia Meteorological Services

Climate affects all facets of so ciety. The training has already helped deliver new seasonal The Gambia’s economy thrives on climate-sensitive sectors, making predictions for The Gambia… and increased my forward planning of utmost importance. Historically, though, understanding of large scale ocean-atmosphere decision-makers and the public rarely used climate science information - variability. due to a gap between providers and users. New tools and techniques are vital to improve climate forecasts Improving services, and drought monitoring; data compi- and apply meteorological informa- building capacity lation, analysis, development and tion to socio-economic planning and dissemination of a 10-day agro - development. I joined The Gambia Meteorological meteorological bulletin; coordination Services in 1976 and currently head of a national multidisciplinary work- I hope to be part of the process of the climate unit. In 2007, I obtained ing group, with technical departments improving such climate information a Bachelor of Science degree in concerned with food security and for The Gambia, where I work for the agrometeo rology at the AGRHYMET natural resources management; meteorological service, as well as the Regional Training Centre in Niamey, management of the climate data - rest of the global community. This Niger. bank; and staff supervision. I conduct aim is challenging. My recent WMO lectures for staff at the Department of fellowship with the National Oceanic I am responsible for smooth running Water Resources Training School, vet and Atmospheric Administration of the unit. This includes monitor - publications and supervise student (NOAA) will undoubtedly help me in ing performance of the crop-growing research at the University of The my endeavours. season, using early warning systems Gambia.

In 2009, I was offered a four-month fellowship at the African Desk of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction at NOAA, as part of the United States contribution to the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Program.

The training has already helped deliver new seasonal predictions for The Gambia. I learned new tools and techniques, and increased my understanding of large scale ocean- atmosphere variability.

Understanding climate variability is key to addressing global environ- mental problems. Longer time-scale variability, for example, might include a series of abnormally mild or excep- tionally severe winters. Year-to-year variations in weather patterns are often Fatou Sima associated with changes in weather

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 69 elements (such as wind, air pressure, Through my training to better under- WMO also awarded me a fellowship for storm tracks and jet streams) that go far stand and produce assessments of climatology training at RMTC, Cairo, beyond a particular country or region. current and historic climate conditions sponsored by Norway. I would like For example, El Niño and La Niña result in The Gambia, I had the opportunity to to thank WMO and the African Desk from weather pattern changes linked work with several institutions. I worked at NOAA for building my capacity to to specific weather, temperature and with the National Environmental meet current and future challenges rainfall patterns throughout the world. Agency of The Gambia on climate and better address climate change In the training programme, I learned change scenarios and adaptation to and extreme events. how to better understand and react to climate change, as well as Concern the El Niño that was predicted to last Universal on adaptation to climate through Northern Hemisphere winter change, among others. of 2009-2010.

Lithuania: new windows for European cooperation by Izolda Marcinonien˙e and Judita Liukaityt ˙e, Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service

Lithuania’s Hydrometeorological and biometeorological data in weather institutes for their help. We encourage Service has many ways to upgrade forecasting. colleagues from other countries to the qualifications of its staff. One such take advantage of these fellowships method, not explored previously, is We are grateful to WMO’s Education to improve their qualifications and the WMO fellowship. We benefited and Training Department for providing career opportunities at their own from this unique on-the-job training these opportunities to study at the most institutes. We believe these Lithuanian in 2008 and 2009. These fellowships renowned institutes in Europe, and fellowships were advantageous for our helped us improve the use of satellite want to thank specialists from these institution, and were also interesting experiences for our host organizations in Germany and Austria.

European networking for satellite data

Izolda Marcinonien˙e

My fellowship, dedicated to interpreting satellite data, lasted for three months at the Central Institute of Meteorology and Geodynamics in Vienna, Austria. The institute is a European leader for satellite information analysis for severe weather case studies.

Satellite information is useful in every- day weather forecasting. Lithuanian forecasters are accustomed to studying SatRep materials online. Izolda Marcinonien˙e SatRep combines satellite imagery

70 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 We encourage colleagues from other countries was an outstanding institution for me to explore biometeorology. to take advantage of these fellowships… these Biometeorology is a new branch of Lithuanian fellowships were advantageous for our meteorology in Lithuania. Forecasters lack basic knowledge in the subject, institution, and were also interesting experiences for which studies interactions between the biosphere and the atmosphere. our host organizations in Germany and Austria. I learned about biometeorological forecasts, methodology and theory. In the wake of my fellowship, bio meteorological forecasting is being and conceptual models to diagnose now training to use it. I continue to reorganized and improved in Lithuania. weather phenomena and get a quali- participate in international updates tative view of developments up to of the latest software and collabora- I gained practical experience and 12 hours ahead. It’s easy to access tive data-sharing practices, thanks to excellent background in operational, and quick to use. WMO and the opportunities of this biometeorological forecasting of ther- fellowship. mal stress, pollen, weather classes, Lithuania often suffers from rain ultraviolet radiation and heat waves. and hail, especially in the summer. I also reviewed the impact of different Because scientists still do not have a Biometeorology brings weather on human health in various full understanding of physical atmos- countries. pheric parameters reflected in satellite new health partnerships data, any additional information is Major updates were completed for very valuable. Rich knowledge in Judita Liukaityt ˙e Heat-Health Warning Systems Europe. this field – such as correct concep- Thirty countries participated in 2009, tual models from satellite images My six-month fellowship took but many use different heat wave defi- – enables forecasters to maintain place in Freiburg, Germany, at the nitions, regional specific thresholds close collaboration and keep pace German national weather service, and lead times (from one to five days). with advanced European national in the Department of Climate and We found problems with Lithuanian meteorological and hydro logical Environment Human Biometeorology. ultraviolet radiation data from Kaunas. services. Finding a host institute for a fellow- Ultraviolet doses measured in Kaunas ship in biometeorology posed some were too high (close to those in On-the-job training provided by the challenges, as many institutions did Munich) and we had to check and WMO fellowship gave me greater not have slots for trainees. This group calibrate instruments. We learned an self-confidence and even allowed me to teach colleagues. During this fellowship, I analysed and posted data related to two days of intensive rain in Lithuania, on the EUMeTrain Website (http://www.zamg.ac.at/ etrainwiki/doku.php). I then presented the case during a SatRep workshop in Zagreb, Croatia. I analysed three other hazardous weather events in Lithuania, developed a case study on catastrophic heavy snowfall on the Baltic coast, and presented and analysed the case in sessions with my colleagues.

Lithuania has been a member of SatRep programme since 2009. As a Lithuanian representative, I partici- pate in board meetings. Recently a new software Web Map Service was demonstrated, and our institution is Judita Liukaityt˙e

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 71 important lesson – to verify ultravio- Knowledge of biometeorology working with the Ministry of Health let data on the ground. acquired during the internship of Lithuania in implementing climate helped to expand cooperation with change strategy and creating Heat- During the training period, I also was the health sector of Lithuania: a coop- Health Warning Systems for the next able to go to the Training School in eration agreement with the Centre heat season. Warsaw, attend a climate and health of Health Emergency Situations was workshop in Boulder, Colorado (USA), signed to inform people about possi- What I got from this fellowship: new and give a lecture about weather ble health effects under hazardous ideas to improve and modernize the forecasting at Freiburg University. I hydrometeoro logical conditions. forecaster’s work; closer international also contributed to the demonstra- cooperation between our institution tion of multi-hazard early warning I will soon defend my doctoral thesis and those in other countries; and systems for the World Expo 2010 in on the need for biometeorological knowledge and contacts with highly- Shanghai, China. forecasts in Lithuania. I have been qualified specialists.

From Sri Lanka to the world by G.B. Samarasinghe, Department of Meteorology of Sri Lanka and Permanent Representative of Sri Lanka to WMO

The first exposure to the wider inter- fellowship, funded through its Regular professors, including R.P. Pearce, Brian national meteorological community Budget. I was very fortunate, as it was Hoskins, James Milford, Mike Pedder was at the University of Reading an exceptional case, with extremely of the University of Reading, and S. (United Kingdom), where I studied short notice. Though the award was for Dube and U.S. Mohanty of the India for my master’s degree in meteor - two years, I completed it in a year and Meteorological Department. Through ology in 1982-83. That was quite some returned to Sri Lanka’s Department of weekly weather discussions, we inter- time after my 1975 graduation from Meteorology (DOM). This was to be the acted not only with one another but the University of Kelaniya, where I first of many unique training opportu- also with the European Centre for studied mathematics and physics. nities afforded to me through WMO. Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Met Office at Bracknell. The My time at the University of Reading During my fellowship, I had the privilege discussions centred on understanding was made possible by a WMO of working with several distinguished the vagaries of weather and forecasts, as well as the importance of the right analytical processes.

This idea would follow me throughout my career. Even today, I keep abreast of the latest developments in meteorol- ogy, while remaining acutely aware of the many uncertainties. The drive continued unabated through participa- tion in many programmes, workshops and seminars in meteorology and related fields, sponsored by WMO and other agencies. These opportu- nities benefited me greatly, giving me more confidence in what I was practicing.

Three of these events were distinct milestones in my career: two agro- G.B. Samarasinghe meteorology training seminars

72 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 Climate change raised the visibility of the Similarly, study visits for Permanent Representatives with WMO led to me meteorological community to the general public and to form friendships with counterparts, and links between our department, policy-makers. Meteorologists now have a duty to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Japan Meteorological convey to government leaders the reality. Agency. Already, JMA has trained a meteorologist to introduce numerical weather prediction-based medium- – in Alma-Ata, Kazakhstan, and in on Tropical Cyclones, enhanced my range forecasts to us. We are also Nanjing, China – and an aeronau - capacity to deal with administrative reviving a training programme for tical meteorology workshop in matters, first as Director-in-Charge meteorological observers and tech- Singapore, jointly organized by WMO of operational meteorological serv- nicians with IMD, which motivates and the International Civil Aviation ices and then as the head of the our managers. Organization. I am the longest serv- Department of Meteorology. ing meteorologist at the international “Hot” issues like climate change airport in Sri Lanka, having left there Two WMO Public Weather Service have raised the visibility of the to work as meteorologist-in-charge training seminars in Bahrain and meteoro logical community to the of the agrometeorology division at Geneva helped me use the media general public and policy-makers. DOM. The Airport Meteorological to communicate meteorology to the Meteorologists now have a duty Office’s standards, methodology, general public. When I led the National to convey to government leaders and use of agrometeorological Meteorological Centre from 1999 to the reality of climate and its vagar- data were initially developed and 2004, we added new features to daily ies, and help them take appropriate introduced based on such training weather forecasts that were instru- actions through remedial measures opportunities. mental in television, radio and print collectively taken by WMO and other media. United Nations and non-govern - The two weeks I trained at the National mental bodies. Meteorologists from Hurricane Center in Miami still serve Also important was involvement developing countries must be espe- me today, providing invaluable back- in the programmes of Advisers on cially resourceful and contribute to ground during cyclone season. External Relations, in which my any adaptation and mitigation meas- Subsequent collaboration since 2005 contemporaries came from around the ures. Without joint efforts of both in the WMO/Economic and Social world to improve relationships with developed and developing countries, Commission for Asia, for its Panel national and international parties. global survival cannot be guaranteed.

Paraguay: Promoting meteorology by Julián Báez Benítez, Meteorological and Hydrological Administration of Paraguay and Permanent Representative of Paraguay to WMO

In Paraguay, a small country of just Due to the fellowship, I completed WMO, and it allowed me to continue 406 000 square kilometres in the my first meteorology course at the my studies and obtain a degree in middle of South America, meteor- University of Costa Rica, as a mete- meteorology, again at the University ology is a profession that is not orological technician. This course of Costa Rica. promoted very much, despite its enor- awakened my interest in gaining mous importance to the country’s more scientific knowledge of mete- In 1995, I returned to Paraguay with economy and society. Twenty-three orology. Shortly thereafter, thanks to my degree in hand and a great deal of years ago, as a result of a fellowship the strong support of Wilfredo Castro, enthusiasm to apply this new knowl- from Germany managed by the WMO my former director and Permanent edge and contribute to the development Voluntary Cooperation Programme, Representative of Paraguay with WMO of meteorology in Paraguay. I imagine I had my first opportunity to get at that time (1992), I was granted a that all of the former fellowship recipi- acquainted with the many ways mete- second fellowship. This time, the fund- ents return with this same enthusiasm. orology benefits our society. ing came from the regular budget of It can fade little by little, in the face of

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 73 Relationships with scientists in the region have enabled me to maintain a broad vision of the realities of data producers, the meteorological serv- ices and scientists’ data requirements. There is not always convergence among their viewpoints.

In 2004, I began working as a teacher and researcher at the Universidad Católica Nuestra Señora de la Asunción with an emphasis on envi- ronmental engineering. This new experience allowed me to bring together a research group with environmental engineering gradu- ates; we are developing projects in climate modelling and agricultural modelling, and just getting started on hydrological modelling. Our aim Julián Báez Benítez is to incorporate climate and hydro- climate prediction into applications for agriculture, hydrological resources the realities of countries with a rela- and the continuation of my academic and natural disasters, all of which tively lower level of development. development. After weighing the costs are very important for Paraguay’s and benefits, I decided to take advan- development. Fortunately, the year of my return, I tage of the opportunity to influence became acquainted with an enthusias- the development of our institution, In 2009, I assumed responsibility for tic hydrologist, Roger Monte Domecq, and accepted the position of Technical management of the Meteorological a professor at a local university. With Manager, combining work in obser- and Hydrological Administration him, I had the opportunity to pursue vation networks, climatology and and became the Permanent the first research study, to apply my hydrology. Representative of Paraguay with knowledge of meteorology in a tangi- WMO. I took on this challenge with ble way. We developed the first rainfall I maintained an active relationship confidence that I could consolidate intensity–duration–frequency curves with meteorological services and our institution’s development. This for eight locations in Paraguay. This academics in the region. I partici pated confidence is based on growing experience was so successful that we in major research projects with groups demand for services in our country, maintained our enthusiasm to further from universities in the region and in and is reinforced by ongoing support our knowledge of hydro meteorology the USA, including a MERCOSUR* from WMO in terms of standards, and make these advances known regional climate programme. It was training and assistance for institu- through publications. To this day, we headed up by the University of Buenos tional development projects. continue to develop projects related Aires; the Pan American Climate to this topic. Studies Sounding Network project (http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ Soon after my return to the pacs/), led by Michael Douglas of the Meteorological and Hydrological National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under the National Administration Severe Storms Civil Aeronautics Administration, I Laboratory in the United States; and had my first major challenge, when I the South American Low-level Jet had to choose between a position of Experiment (http://www.eol.ucar.edu/ responsibility within the institution projects/salljex).

* Common market comprising Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay

74 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 Weather and climate forecasting: chronicle of a revolution by Peter Lynch*

Today people know sooner whether The birth of scientific than the weather advances… But that to carry an umbrella for a rainy day, is a dream,” he said in 1922. Today, thanks to a revolution in weather and forecasting forecasts are prepared routinely climate forecasting. on powerful computers running The study of thermodynamics – which algorithms remarkably similar to Remarkable advances in weather fore- took a great leap in the nineteenth Richardson’s scheme. His dream has casts during the past half-century century – completed the set of funda- indeed come true. have brought great benefits to human- mental principles governing the flow ity. Accurate forecasts save many of the atmosphere. By about 1890, While Richardson’s dream appeared lives, and early warnings mitigate the great American meteor ologist unrealizable at the time his book was the worst effects of extreme weather Cleveland Abbe recognized that mete- published, key developments in the events, when they are available. orology is simply the application of ensuing decades set the scene for Detailed, accurate forecasts are of hydrodynamics and thermodynam- progress. huge economic value, with numerous ics to the atmosphere. studies showing that the benefits of Profound developments in the theory forecasts outweigh the costs many Shortly afterwards, the Norwegian of meteorology provided crucial times over. scientist Vilhelm Bjerknes analysed understanding of atmospheric weather more explicitly with a two- dynamics. Advances in numerical Advances in climate modelling over step plan. In the diagnostic step, analysis enabled the design of stable the past fifty years have also been the initial state of the atmosphere is algorithms. The invention of the radio- outstanding. General circulation determined using observations; in the sonde, and its introduction in a global models have been developed and prognostic step, the laws of motion network, meant that timely obser- applied to examine the factors caus- are used to calculate how this state vations of the atmosphere in three ing changes in our climate, and their changes over time. Bjerknes saw no dimensions were becoming availa- likely timing and severity. possibility to put his ideas to prac- ble. Finally, the computer provided tical use. a means of attacking the enormous When the European Centre for computational task involved in Medium-Range Weather Forecasts The English scientist Lewis Fry weather forecasting. was established in 1976, forecast skill Richardson was bolder. Richardson’s ten days ahead was little more than a forecasting amounts to implementa- In the mid-1930s, John von Neumann dream. The centre’s stated goal was tion of Bjerknes’ prognostic step. As became interested in turbulent to produce weather forecasts in the Richardson observed, his scheme fluid flows. Von Neumann knew of range of four to ten days. In February is complicated because the atmos- Richardson’s pioneering work, and 2010, the “ten-day barrier” became phere is complicated. It involved a saw that progress in hydrodynam- reality. phenomenal volume of numerical ics would accelerate if a means computation, quite impractical in the were available of solving complex pre-computer era. But Richardson equations. It was clear that very fast * Director of the Meteorology and Cli- was undaunted. “Perhaps some day automatic computing machinery was mate Centre, School of Mathematical in the dim future it will be possible required. Von Neumann recognized Sciences,University College Dublin, Ireland. E-mail: [email protected] to advance the computations faster weather forecasting – a problem of

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 75 art computer simulations of the Earth’s Weather forecasting pioneers past, present, and future climate states (http://ecearth.knmi.nl/).

Comprehensive atmospheric models are among the finest achievements of meteorology in the twentieth century. These models are constantly refined and extended, and are ever more sophisticated and comprehensive. They simulate the atmosphere and oceans as well as geophysical, chem- ical and biological processes and feedbacks. The models, now called Earth System Models, are applied to weather prediction and also to the study of climate variability and Courtesy of Oliver Ashford © Nora Rosenbaum humankind’s impact on it. Lewis Fry Richardson (left) and Jule Charney (right) Numerical weather prediction today great practical significance and intrin- The ENIAC forecasts were made sic scientific interest – as an ideal using a highly simplified model. It is no exaggeration to describe the problem for a computer. In the ensuing years, several more advances made over the past half sophisticated and realistic models century as revolutionary. Thanks Von Neumann discussed the prospects were developed. to this work, meteorology is now for numerical weather forecasting with firmly established as a quantitative Carl Gustaf Rossby, who arranged science, and its value and validity are for Jule Charney to participate in a Climate models grow demonstrated daily by the acid test weather prediction project. Charney of any science, its ability to predict directed the Princeton Project (USA) in sophistication the future. for eight years, and led the team who performed the first computer weather The impact of climate change is of Operational forecasting today uses forecasts. enormous importance for our future, guidance from a wide range of models. and global climate models are the In most centres, a combination of best means we have of anticipating global and local models is used. By Computers, motor likely changes. way of illustration, consider the global model of the European Centre for of the forecasting Norman Phillips (Princeton University, Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. revolution USA) carried out the first long-range The centre aims to deliver weather simulation of the general circulation forecasts of increasingly high quality Arrangements were made to run the of the atmosphere in 1956, for about and scope from a few days to a few integration on the only computer then a month. seasons ahead. Operational since 1979, available, the Electronic Numerical the centre continues to develop fore- Integrator and Computer (ENIAC) in Following Phillips’ seminal work, casts and other products of steadily the late 1940s. The ENIAC integra- several models were developed. Solar increasing accuracy and value, main- tions were truly ground-breaking; heating, terrestrial radiation, convec- taining its position as a world leader. indeed, weather forecasting had tion and small-scale turbulence and been regarded as a Grand Challenge other processes are now included in problem throughout the history of these models. Modern models include The rise of ensemble computing. Four 24-hour forecasts the oceans, ice and land processes. The were made. Each 24-hour integration EC-Earth model, being developed by a forecasting took about 24 hours of computation – community of European scientists, has that is, the team was just able to keep the Integrated Forecast System as its The chaotic nature of the atmospheric pace with the weather. base. It is used to provide state-of-the- flow is now well understood. It imposes

76 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 a limit on predictability – unavoidable have been impressive. However, in charts of the sea-state, and other errors in the initial state grow rapidly, temperate latitudes, and in particular specialized products can be auto - and render the forecast useless after for the European region, no significant matically produced and distributed some days. The most successful means skill has yet been achieved. Indeed, to users. to overcome this obstacle is to run a seasonal forecasting for middle lati- series, or ensemble, of forecasts, each tudes is one of the great problems Road ice prediction is based on starting from a slightly different initial facing us today. models using forecasts of temper- state. To allow for uncertainty, the phys- ature, humidity, precipitation, ics parameters of the forecast model cloudiness and other parameters to are also perturbed at random. The From road ice to estimate road surface conditions. combined result is used to deduce Applications exist to model pollu- future changes in the atmosphere. forest fire smoke, tion drift, nuclear fallout, smoke from applications abound forest fires and other phenomena. Since the early 1990s, ensemble fore- casting has been operational at both Short-range forecasting requires Aviation benefits significantly from the European Centre for Medium- detailed guidance, updated frequently. numerical weather prediction guid- Range Weather Forecasts and at the Many National Meteorological ance, with warnings of hazards such National Centers for Environmental Services run limited-area models with as lightning, icing and clear air turbu- Prediction in Washington. At ECMWF high resolution to provide such fore- lence. Many airports can be serviced they perform an ensemble of 51 fore- cast guidance. from a central forecasting facility casts, each having a resolution half based on automatic generation of that of the deterministic forecast. Timely warning of weather extremes terminal aerodrome forecasts. may be the most important applica- Probability forecasts have emerged tion. Many lives can be saved and Looking forward as the key guide for medium-range property losses averted through these prediction. They are generated and warnings. Transportation, energy Computers have enabled a revo - disseminated for use in operational consumption, construction, tourism lutionary leap in forecasting. The centres. The European Centre, for and agriculture sectors, all sensitive eminent Norwegian meteorologist example, prepares seasonal forecasts, to weather conditions, are increasing Sverre Petterssen noted that, prior with a range of six months. They are their demand for accuracy and detail to the computer, advances occurred made using a coupled atmosphere- of short range forecasts, as decisions in homeopathic doses. ocean model, and a large number of with heavy financial implications must forecasts are combined in an ensem- continually be made. Yet formidable challenges remain. ble each month. Sudden weather changes and The marine community also uses extremes cause much human hard- These ensemble forecasts have numerical weather prediction. ship and damage to property. These demonstrable skill for tropical Predicted winds are used to drive rapid developments have fast and regions. Recent predictions of the wave models, which estimate sea and slow time scales, with intricate inter- onset of El Niño and La Niña events swell heights and periods. Forecast actions between dynamic processes and physical parameters. Computing these complex interactions is a signif- icant challenge.

Protecting air traffic. With the recent eruption of the Icelandic Eyjafjallajokul volcano, many weather services cooperated to produce forecasts that helped airlines determine whether it was safe to fly in Europe. Ten million travellers were grounded when European airspace was closed for five days in April. Such volcanic ash advisory services are

© Marco Fulle/www.stromboli.net based on complex forecasting models.

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 77 Nowcasting is the process of predict- ing changes over periods of a few hours. Guidance from current numer- Accuracy: Gaining a day per decade ical models can fall short of what is needed to take effective action to Forecasts have improved by around one day per decade in the last avert disasters. For now, the best thirty years, and by 2010 forecasts have been made with 10-day accu- results systematically combine racy. numerical weather prediction prod- ucts with conventional observations, Forecast skill is judged by the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) radar imagery, satellite imagery and of the 500 hPa height forecast field. The useful range is estimated as other data. But much remains to be the forecast day on which the ACC drops to 60 per cent. On average, done to develop optimal nowcasting the 60 per cent level is now reached at around day 8. In February 2010, systems, and we can be optimistic the average monthly ACC remained above 60 per cent throughout the that future developments will lead 10-day range of the deterministic forecast for the northern hemisphere. to great improvements in this area. See http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/cms/get/ecmwfnews/255 At the opposite end of the time scale, the atmosphere’s chaotic nature puts a limit on what standard forecasts can achieve. While the ensemble predic- tion technique provides probabilistic guidance, so far it has proved diffi- cult to use in many cases. Interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean becomes a dominant factor at longer forecast ranges. Although there is good progress in seasonal forecasting for the tropics, useful long-range forecasts for temperate regions remain to be tackled by future modellers. Another great challenge is the modelling and prediction of climate change, a matter of increas- ing importance and concern.

Developments in atmospheric dynam- Richardson an everyday reality. grown apace, and progress contin- ics, instrumentation and observing Numerical weather prediction models ues on several fronts. practice and digital computing have are now at the centre of operational made the dreams of Bjerknes and forecasting. Forecast accuracy has

An enormous computing task made easier. A century ago, weather predictions were a dream. Today, weather predictions have broken the ten-day barrier. Behind this revolution are the invention of the radiosonde, plus spectacular progress in meteorological theory, numerical analysis and

© Bigstock/Ronald Hudson the power of supercomputers.

78 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 Improving cyclone warning Case study: Philippines by Paula McCaslin1, Tetsuo Nakazawa2, Richard Swinbank3 and Zoltan Toth1

Better cyclone prediction is a focus of international weather research. This case study of a 2009 typhoon that narrowly missed the Philippines gives a portrait of the scope for ensemble ECMWF forecasting. CMC UKMO CMA Météo NCEP JMA Weather Forecasts NCAR France KMA A key challenge for meteorologists of NCDC the 21st century is to improve predic- tion of severe weather events like Archive centre Medium-Range Typhoon Parma, so that people can Data provider protect themselves through timely LDM CPTEC warnings. FTP BOM HTTP

When Typhoon Parma struck in © European Centre for September 2009, it was the worst storm Ensemble forecasting archives open to researchers. Ten of the world’s leading in four decades in the Philippines, weather forecast centres contribute ensemble forecasts to the THORPEX Interactive affecting more than 3 million people, Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) project. The ten data providers transmit forecasts to killing 288 and causing over US$ 600 three archive centres, available to scientific researchers worldwide. One project that million of damage. uses this data is the Global Interactive Forecast System, which helps the international community to improve cyclone warnings. Tropical cyclones, also known as hurri- canes and typhoons, are the most powerful and destructive weather forecasting, TIGGE is an example of This project is part of a WMO inter- systems on the planet. While success the world’s leading weather fore - national research programme, in achieved with numerical weather cast centres, collaborating together place since 2003, called THORPEX, prediction is one of the most signif- with the global meteorological The Observing System Research icant scientific achievements of the community. and Predictability Experiment. The 20th century, there is room to improve programme is part of the WMO World forecasting for rare but severe events The aim is to develop Global Weather Research Programme, and a that cause catastrophic damage. Interactive Forecast System to key research component of the WMO provide the best possible forecasts Disaster Risk Reduction Programme. Building on the foundations of numer- for tropical cyclones and other high- ical weather prediction and ensemble impact weather events. To illustrate how the system can help with tropical cyclone fore - casts, Typhoon Lupit makes a good case study. Just as people in the 1 Global Systems Division, Earth Systems Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Philippines were responding to Atmospheric Administration, USA Typhoon Parma, Typhoon Lupit 2 Typhoon Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan 3 Ensemble Forecasting Group, UK Met Office raged in the western Pacific Ocean

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 79 In other words

Numerical weather prediction Modern weather forecasts are based on the technique known as numerical weather prediction:

- First, observations are collected to determine weather conditions; - Next, advanced high-speed computers solve complex sets

of numerical equations, using Courtesy of Tetsuo Nakazawa, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan the weather observations as Regional distribution hubs. New forecast products, based on data from several variables; ensemble prediction systems, aim to produce the best possible forecasts of tropical - This representative model cyclones. These are delivered to regional centres, which in turn deliver them to the of the atmosphere is used to national weather forecast services. They inform emergency services about strong predict the future state of the winds, severe rain and storm surges associated with tropical cyclones, and together atmosphere at specific time issue public warnings as required. Above, a forecaster at the regional centre in Tokyo. intervals.

in mid-October 2009, and threatened The storm’s path and whether it Ensemble Forecasting further devastation. will hit land are important to know. Ensemble probabilistic fore- Equally important to determine casting is an advanced appli- The satellite image of Typhoon Lupit are the amount of rain and how cation of numerical weather of 17 October 2009 came at a time strong the destructive winds will prediction. This powerful new when TIGGE data providers had been be. Typhoons also often cause vast tool can improve early warning running their ensemble prediction damage to coasts and islands, due of high-impact events: systems, and were starting to produce to storm surges and flooding. Some track forecasts (see image of ensem- of Lupit’s towering thunderstorms - Typically, 20 or more numer- ble forecasts for the typhoon). Most reached as high as 15 kilometres ical model predictions are forecasts showed that the cyclone (more than 9 miles high), indicating generated for a given time; would track westwards to strike the very powerful storms with heavy - Each individual prediction Philippines, compounding recent rainfall. Future forecast products will is known as an ensemble devastation from Typhoon Parma. highlight risks from intense rainfall member; Over the next few days, Lupit did and winds associated with severe - The ensemble of multiple indeed track westwards, as shown tropical storms. predictions captures the by the black line. range of possible weather The case shows how ensemble fore- events and impact scenarios; Ensemble forecast information was casts can give estimates of likely - Decision-makers use the also used to calculate strike probabil- forecast outcomes, as well as early information to issue warnings ity maps, helping forecasters make indications of possible scenarios, to with longer lead times, reduc- decisions for issuing warnings. While alert decision-makers to a range of ing losses and increasing most tracks showed that Lupit could scenarios for severe weather. safety. strike the northern Philippines, some showed that the typhoon could turn Quality is constantly improving, Ensemble Prediction Systems northeast. though some inaccuracy will always are now common at most of remain. The atmosphere is complex the major operational weather Later ensemble forecasts showed and there are theoretical and practical prediction facilities worldwide. in creasing probability that Lupit limits to predictability. Probability would turn northeast, sparing the forecasts have uncertainty factored Philippines this time – which is what into them. This is the very reason that actually happened. probabilistic forecasts are useful.

80 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 Would Typhoon Lupit strike the Philippines?

The question for the Philippines, two weeks after the devastating Typhoon Parma of 2009, was whether a second typhoon would strike the country’s northeast- ern corner.

By continuously generating and analysing ensemble fore- casts, a global network of expert centres provided the best possible analysis as the second typhoon unfolded. In the first set of images, an ensemble forecast gave an early indication of two completely different possible tracks that Lupit could follow. Later information showed increasing probability that the Philippines would be spared.

Typhoon Lupit, 17 October 2009. This Japanese satellite image, processed by the National Institute of Informatics of

© Japanese satellite MTSAT-1R Japan, shows Typhoon Lupit moving towards the Philippines.

Predicting the course of Typhoon Lupit. The ensemble forecasts of Typhoon Lupit’s cyclone track come from several TIGGE data providers. The colour changes every 24 hours

© Composed McCaslin, by P. NOAA. Source: http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/ along each forecast track.

Early ensemble forecasts indicated two completely different tracks that Lupit could follow. This later version showed that it was more likely that the typhoon would veer northeast, sparing the Philippines. This picture shows a NOAA Website display of hurricane forecasts tracks from three TIGGE data providers for Lupit (in

©Created McCaslin, by P. NOAA. Source: http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ colour, with actual track in black).

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 81 Boosting food security Title by Jim Salinger*

Dr Salinger, former President of the • Devise strategies to cope with Early years: linking WMO Commission for Agricultural climate variability and change scientific disciplines Meteor ology (2006-2010), outlines the for agriculture, forests and Commission’s challenges in contrib- fisheries. When the Commission was created in uting to food security, building on its the 1950s, it focused on inter-agency role over the last 60 years. cooperation with agencies such as Population growth FAO, the United Nations Educational, At the latest Millennium Development Scientific and Cultural Organization Goals Summit in New York in outstrips food supplies (UNESCO) and the International September 2010 developing coun- Population growth is outstripping Society of Soil Science. Building try leaders pointed to climate change food supplies. Today there are links between weather services and as a real threat to attaining food 6.8 billion people. By 2050, the world’s agriculture at the national level was security. WMO and its network of population is expected to reach nearly a priority. National coordinating national weather agencies contribute 9.2 billion, with growth concentrated committees were set up between by providing key weather and climate in developing countries. Food produc- agencies for meteorology, agricul- information that is adapted to local tion will need to increase by more ture, animal husbandry and soil agricultural conditions, for farmers than 50 per cent by 2030, and nearly science. This led to the inception of and decision-makers. double by 2050. agro meteorological services.

The modern challenge for WMO’s Meanwhile, food stocks, production Later in the 1950s, water experts were Commission for Agricultural Mete- and development assistance for agri- included. Semi-arid regions clearly orology is to contribute to greater culture are on the downswing. The needed to link hydrology to agricul- food security, in context of skyrock- cereal stocks-to-utilization ratio, at ture. The concept of water balance for eting population growth and climate 19.6 per cent in 2008, is at its lowest crop yield was globally recognized, change. level in 30 years, according to the as agrometeorologists were able to United Nations Food and Agriculture compute aspects of the hydrological The Commission has developed a very Organization (FAO). Developing coun- cycle. This allowed them to deter- important mandate for the decade tries only increased cereal production mine when and how much irrigation 2010-2020 to assist food and fibre by 1.1 per cent in 2008. If China, would be needed, by examining plant production so as to: India and Brazil are excluded from root systems and soil for their water the group, production in the rest of capacity. • Enhance food security; the developing world actually fell by • Reduce natural disaster 0.8 per cent. Agriculture’s share of The firstGuide to Agrometeorological impacts on agriculture, forestry Official Development Assistance fell Practices soon followed. It included and fisheries; from 17 per cent in 1980 to 3 per cent the collection of weather and climate • Promote sustainable land in 2006. data with agriculture applications. management; and It also examined weather forecast Food security has been a theme of applications, such at how weather * School of Environment, University of development for the Commission since forecasts were used for crop planting, Auckland, New Zealand. it was conceived sixty years ago. agricultural spraying, cutting of hay

82 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 of crops grown in the various areas 15 Population growth: were described. Studies centred on 14 13 weather factors influencing plant 12 moving up, fast pests and diseases, such as desert 11

10 Food production will need to locusts, apple scab and wheat rusts. 9 increase by 30 per cent by 2030 Some regional agroclimatologies 8 and by nearly 100 per cent by were carried out. 7 6 2050, to feed the world’s growing

Billions of people 5 population . 4 3 National 2 From one billion people in 1820, 1 today we have 6.8 billion people. agrometeorological 0 1820 1860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 2100 Over 9 billion are expected by services take shape Estimated UN High UN Medium UN Low Actual 2050. During the 1970s, with rapid popula- tion growth and a worsening world food situation, the Commission for silage and severe weather warn- weather events, and applications for embarked on a comprehensive ings for newborn livestock. food production. WMO programme at the national level. Shortcomings existed in appli- Other developments included During the 1960s, agroclimatol - cations of weather and climate to weather-related forecasting for potato ogy grew, with the first concerted food production. The programme blight, other plant diseases and pests; approach using climate data. Maps helped countries anticipate weather and prediction of below-zero temper- were developed with climatic factors and climate variability’s impact on atures for frost-sensitive crops. The affecting crops, such as rainfall and food production. It examined crop/ emphasis in these early days was very water balance factors, heat and light. climate relationships determining much on one to two-day time scale Climate requirements for a range yield and development, as well as © Romeo Ranoco/Reuters Food security will be critical in the years ahead, against the twin challenges of population growth and climate change. WMO is part of the United Nations team addressing food security.

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 83 Reaching out to farmers. Weather and climate information seminars help rural West African farmers manage risk and use natural resources sustainably, with over 100 one-day seminars in 11 countries. Farmers also provide crucial feedback to the weather services through the seminars. The WMO project is funded by the State Agency for Meteorology of

© R. Stefanski/WMO Spain.

crop diseases, animal diseases, soil most suitable crops to climatic condi- degradation, aerobiology, agroclima- tions in specific areas. Services grew The divide in services between tology and international experiments for agriculturalists, especially for developing and developed countries to acquire crop-weather data. drought and desert-prone areas. became clear. In developed coun - tries, food production was mainly During the lead up to the World Food In the 1960 and 1970s, the WMO for income. Management techniques Conference in Rome in 1974, the Congress established an inter- focused on increasing production Commission’s role aiding food produc- agency coordinating group on an per hectare through new varieties, tion was emphasized, and WMO fully Agrometeorological Programme fertiliser application and monocul- participated in preparations for this in Aid of World Food Production. tures – the “green revolution” which landmark conference. This led to the The group consisted of representa - enabled food production per capita decision at Congress to strengthen tives from WMO, FAO, UNESCO and to rise. WMO activities in aid of food produc- the United Nations Development tion. With this came crop-weather Programme (UNDP). Farmers were technologically modelling for the first time. advanced and they made good use of The 1982-83 El Niño/Southern weather and climate information. But This decade produced many publica- Oscillation hurt food production in concentrated agricultural production tions dealing with the meteorological many countries. Droughts in south- was harming soil and water quality. aspects of crop and animal produc- ern Africa brought crop failure and The Commission focused on decreas- tion and protection, forecasting yields, famine; drought led to crop failure ing inputs into agriculture to reduce soil and land use, water balance, and in Australia; and Peruvian ancho - environmental damage. Satellite agroclimatologies of areas. The work veta fisheries collapsed because of technologies and Geographical of the Commission in the late 1970s warmer coastal waters. However, Information Systems were used for established a WMO programme fully the Commission’s activities to cope agroclimatic mapping; rapid improve- supporting food production. with climate variability were to wait ments numerical weather prediction another decade, as this was coupled improved in forecasts influencing Addressing climate impact with the development of seasonal agriculture for several days, as well on food production to inter-annual climate predictions. as crop/climate predictions.

Many work threads came to fruition In the developing world, food produc- during the 1980s – a decade when Bridging a divide tion challenges came from increasing climatic variability started to have a climate variability, drought and deser- big impact on agriculture and food With the 1990s, the Commission tification, wind and water erosion and production. Developing country developed work programmes to environmental degradation of land participation grew rapidly. assist sustainable agricultural owing to population pressures. In production. Global climate devel- response, the Commission promoted Weather and climate factors were fed opments also had their influence. microclimate management for small- into models that helped determine The 1997-98 El Niño and the 1998-99 scale crop and soil protection; regional crop scheduling and assess yields. La Niña again affected agriculture climate forecasting to diversify large- Agroclimatologies were carried out in a major way, and the effects of scale cropping and farming; online for specific crops. Agroclimatic zoning global warming were becoming more advice for countries, regarding sowing techniques emerged, matching the widely recognized. time and irrigation scheduling from

84 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 crop water balances; and indigenous scale prediction in India, Pakistan and knowledge from farmers to increase Indonesia, bringing greater under- In other words yield while protecting the environ- standing of climate variables and their ment, which had been overlooked impact on agriculture. Agricultural Meteorology with the previous boom in scientific Examines the impact of weather agricultural research. Climate predictions in Tamil Nadu, and climate on crops, rangeland, India, have shown that the value of livestock, and agricultural oper- forecasts in smallholder systems ations. It deals with water, heat, Climate science: new depends on prediction skill, the air and related biomass develop- Southern Oscillation Index phase, ment – above and below ground services for agriculture and types of decisions and respon- – in agriculture, including the siveness to climate predictions. impact of pests and diseases. In the last decade, three major advances Summer monsoon forecasts are The term first came into use have shaped the Commission’s contri- concurrent and moderately skil - in the 1920s. Since the 1980s, butions to food and fibre production. ful, but are valuable for groundnut the field has changed rapidly. These are the growth of seasonal to and cotton management. Winter A rise in natural disasters, inter-annual climate forecasting; better monsoon rainfall forecasts are pests, diseases, climate varia- supercomputers to simulate climate more skilful but have low value for bility and climate change has scenarios; and mobile phone and inter- sorghum management. brought more demand for agro- net technologies to get weather and meteorology services. climate information to farmers. A network of research teams is building capacity to analyse agricul- The Commission on Agricultural The Commission consequently organ- tural systems, evaluate options and Meteorology ized its contributions in three project manage climate risk. Crop simula- One of eight WMO technical streams: tion modelling has been the essential commissions, the Commission bond connecting several disciplines, promotes weather and climate • Services for agricultural with results useful to farming commu- developments, applications and production; nities. A multi-country network of standards that relate to agricul- • Support systems for scientists working in different disci- ture, soil conservation, animal agrometeorological services; plines is creating useful climate husbandry and plants, forests • Climate change and variability knowledge, building partnerships and fisheries. and natural disasters. with farming communities.

Climate predictions have been pivotal The collective understanding of in climate services for agriculture. For climate variability and its prediction example, from seasonal climate fore- for the agricultural sector has grown. webserver to share products issued casts, information and prediction, a More sophisticated climate prediction by WMO Members. course has been plotted for large- procedures are emerging rapidly and finding greater use. With crop simu- Recently two international workshops lation models in a decision systems were held on reducing vulnerability framework, alternative decisions are of agriculture and forestry to climate being generated. There is a need to variability and change, and devising further refine and promote climate coping strategies such as crop risk prediction tools. It is equally impor- insurance. These workshops provided tant to find out why current products capacity building for scientists from are not being adapted and used more developing countries with scientists widely. from developed countries.

Spreading agrometeorological

© D. Diarra/Direction Nationale de la Météorologie, Mali information begins with scientific The road ahead: Crop yields are higher, and farm knowledge and understanding, incomes can be 10 to 80 per cent higher, and ends with evaluation. For infor- combining efforts for when farmers use agrometeorological mation to be useful, it must be global food security information to take management accurate, timely, and cost-effective. decisions. Here, national experts Towards this end, the Commission The Commission’s contributions in Mali train farmers to use a rain set up the World AgroMeteorological to world food production over six gauge during a WMO seminar. Information Services, a dedicated decades have been many. But just as

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 85 to climate change. Planning, early Influencing food security policies warning and well-prepared response strategies are the major tools for miti- More and more, people will be gating crop losses due to climate Resource adapting to climate change, rather management variability. New, quantitative infor- than preventing or limiting its effect. mation about the environment within Agrometeorologists are exploring which farmers operate – or about the integrated adaptation science to likely outcome of relief management improve food security and liveli- Improved options – will reduce uncertain - livelihoods hoods. By integrating the results of ties in crop productivity. Computer weather and agricultural research simulations are particularly useful Integrated Well-informed policy with social science research, scien- adaptation science development to quantitatively compare alterna- tists can inform policy and practice tive management and relief options more effectively. in areas where seasonal climatic Diagram source: Meinke et al., 2009 variability is high and/or prone to extremes. many challenges lie ahead, because Last year’s World Climate Conference-3 We hope it can be said in another of the twin challenges posed by popu- proposed a Global Framework for 60 years, what the Commission for lation growth and climate change. Climate Services. This framework can Agrometeorology can say in 2010: help the world face climatic risks and “Although what we as members of The Commission has an extremely uncertainties for agriculture. A key this Commission do may seem insig- important role in assisting food and strategy is better use of climate knowl- nificant, our combined efforts have fibre production to adapt to climate edge and climate risk technologies. produced crucial improvements for variability and change, especially in agro meteorology and global food the Americas, Africa, Asia and small The Commission for Agrometeorology security.” island states. To enhance this role, the will contribute by linking and integrat- Commission has forged new links with ing information between providers For more information the World Food Programme. and users of climate services. The WMO has several brochures outlining farming community and the National its work in agricultural meteorology. During the past four decades, weather Meteorological and Hydrological These cover the Commission and the role of national services, as well as and climate risks such as droughts, Services will need to be more active climate change topics related to food floods, storms, tropical cyclones, heat in communicating this information. security, desertification, land degrada- waves, wildland fires and windstorms tion, agriculture, drought monitoring and early warning. See http://www. have caused major losses in the agri- Another key strategy to cope with wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/agm/publica- cultural sector. Communities most food security includes better climate tions/agm_brochures.html exposed to risks are those with the knowledge and technology to adapt least access to technological resources and infrastructure.

Natural disasters are a real threat to the 450 million smallholder farms worldwide. By way of example, in 2009 alone, China suffered its worst drought in five decades, affecting 4 million people; India experienced its weakest monsoon season since 1972, with rainfall 23 per cent below normal across the nation; east African drought led to massive food short- ages in Kenya, with 150 000 livestock lost and a 40 per cent decline in maize harvests, affecting 23 million people; and record-breaking heatwaves © www.sxc.hu/Oktaviani Marvikasari across southern Australia combined Climate tools are important to manage fisheries, as part of the focus on sustainable food with very dry conditions to spark security. The Commission for Agricultural Meteorology will address this issue in 2011 deadly wildfires. with an international workshop on climate and ocean fisheries.

86 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 Climate services can reverse downward spiral Case study: Haiti by Andrew Thow*

Climate services are a key to support- It was not the power of the earthquake poorest citizens – highly vulnerable to ing Haiti’s effort to rebuild its country, alone that killed so many Haitians, but increases in international food prices. after the devastating earthquake the chronic poverty and vulnerabil- early this year. ity of the population as well. Haitian Deforestation and environmental society has struggled throughout degradation make things worse, its history to plan for and manage increasing flooding and landslide 35 seconds of frequent extremes in weather, partic- risks and reduces soil cohesion, so ularly hurricanes and intense rainfall. that fertile farmland is lost to erosion. devastation, decades While devastating, the earthquake Only two per cent of Haiti’s original of vulnerability has offered an opportunity not just forest cover remains, as most has to reconstruct, but to “re-found” the been cut for charcoal, timber and agri- The earthquake that hit Haiti on country, as its President has said. culture. More than 80 per cent of the 12 January 2010 was the strongest country’s watersheds are critically earthquake in 200 years. Measuring or totally deforested. Approximately 7.0 on the Richter scale, it lasted Climate, linked to Haiti’s 1 600 hectares of agricultural land are 35 seconds. What emerged after that lost to soil erosion each year. Infertile short time was a different country – development challenges areas make up a quarter of all land transformed by a disaster of almost under cultivation. unprecedented scale and complexity. Haiti’s semi-arid tropical climate, frequent hurricanes and mountain- Nearly a third of the population – ous terrain have combined with some 3 million people – were affected. environmental degradation, politi- More than 230 000 lost their lives and cal instability and extreme poverty. another 300 000 were injured. The In this context, it is understandable earthquake crippled Haiti’s capital that planning for climate risks has and economic heart, Port-au-Prince, historically been weak. and destroyed hundreds of thousands of homes in the city and elsewhere. Food security is an issue. About two There were 1.3 million people who thirds of Haitians work in agricul - sought refuge in makeshift settle - ture – mainly subsistence farming ments in and around the capital, while – yet the sector only accounts for a half a million more sought refuge with third of GDP. Agriculture is acutely family and friends in other parts of the vulnerable to damage from frequent country. Damage and economic losses hurricanes, floods and landslides. The from the earthquake are estimated to rough, mountainous terrain limits the be US$ 7.9 billion – over 120 per cent land available for cultivation and irri- of Haiti’s 2009 GDP. gation. Local production provides just

45 per cent of Haiti’s food consump- © UN Photo/Sophia Paris tion. Dependence on food imports Water in Haiti: A case of too much, * Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) makes the country – especially its too little.

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 87 With 75 per cent of the popula - tion dependent on precarious rural WMO’s post-disaster support to Haiti employment, many Haitians have sought employment in urban areas, The Haiti National Meteorological Service and the National Water but there are no new jobs. Resources Service lost office facilities, equipment and a staff member during the earthquake. WMO coordinated an international effort among The poor often have no choice but W MO M emb er s, i t s ow n te c hnic al programme s, UN b odie s and other inter- to occupy the lowest valued land in national partners to help these Haitian institutions dealing with weather, disaster-prone areas such as river- water and climate. The aim was to support humanitarian response and banks, unstable hillsides, flood plains, early recovery during the 2010 rainy and hurricane seasons, with a view coastal areas and deforested lands. to longer-term reconstruction. A WMO-led task team provided assistance, Poor quality housing is prevalent, and including Canada, Cuba, Dominican Republic, France, UK and USA. WMO it is not constructed to withstand the also explored fund-raising opportunities for these Haitian institutions by impacts of natural hazards. including the assessment results in consolidated UN disaster manage- ment appeals, the Haiti Reconstruction Fund and by approaching bilateral Feeling climate change donors. This has resulted in stronger Haitian services.

Haiti has a hot and humid tropical climate. Rainfall occurs throughout the year, with major rains in April to June and August to November. The average annual rainfall is 140 to 200 cm, unevenly distributed. On the path of tropical storms that orig- inate in the Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, Haiti is hit by one tropical storm every 2-3 years on average and by a major hurricane every 6-7 years. Drought-prone areas are on the rise, due to environmental degradation and subsequent desertification.

Haiti is feeling the impact of climate change. The percentage of days with very warm temperatures has increased considerably since the 1950s, with the number of consecutive dry days decreasing and the number of heavy rainfall events increasing. Sea-level rise is expected to increase the risks of floods, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, and develop economic, governmental Improved forecasting and early warn- putting settlements and people at risk. and social activity while reduc - ing systems are vital. Observations, ing Haiti’s vulnerability to natural historical data and modelling stud- hazards. ies for hurricanes, floods, rainfall, Climate services soil moisture and hill slope stabil - Climate services are vital to this ity are essential to reduce disaster for recovery and effort. Management of climate risks. Climate services are needed development risks – and now the new risks to support agriculture, in order to presented by climate change – is not improve rural livelihoods and reduce Rebuilding Haiti does not – and cannot peripheral to Haiti’s development. food insecurity. Better water resource – mean returning to the situation that Improved access to climate infor- management is also key, focusing on existed before the earthquake. To mation is needed to guide recovery rainwater absorption, soil retention rebuild the country on new founda- and development in disaster risk in watersheds and protecting drink- tions will require addressing first the management, agriculture, natural ing water sources. Information about urgent humanitarian situation, and resources management and infra- rainfall patterns and other climate then sustaining the effort to restart structure development. variables are needed to guide river

88 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 Recurrent disasters hold back Haiti’s development

The daunting task facing the Haitian Government and Recurrent disasters have consequently been a its partners after the catastrophic earthquake is to defining feature of Haiti’s faltering development. rebuild a country already weakened by two centuries Underdevelopment makes Haiti very vulnerable to of political instability, natural disasters and environ - natural hazards. Between 1980 and 2008, floods, storms mental devastation. and landslides affected over seven million Haitians.

Haiti, the least developed country in the Western Flash floods from hurricanes, tropical storms or heavy Hemisphere, occupies the westernmost third of the rainfall are devastating. Exacerbated by deforestation, Caribbean island of Hispaniola, which it shares with landslides often occur after heavy rain. Eroded water- the Dominican Republic. Its rapidly-growing popula- sheds wash down on poor floodplain communities in tion is approximately 10 million, densely packed into river valleys or on the coast. a land area of 27 750 km2. In 2004 the United Nations intervened to help establish security, re-launching For example, in less than one month in 2008, two democratic politics with peaceful elections that tropical storms and two hurricanes devastated Haiti, produced a legitimate, accountable government. killing 793, leaving 800 000 people destitute, and caus- ing economic losses equivalent to 15 per cent of GDP, Poverty is widespread and natural resources are badly particularly in agriculture and road infrastructure. With depleted. More than 70 per cent of the population the entrenched problems that have faced the coun- survives on less than US$ 2 per day, and 46 per cent try for decades, the most vulnerable members of the are undernourished. Nearly half the population has population have been consigned to a vicious circle of inadequate access to clean water. Haiti’s health indi - poverty and increasing disaster risk. cators are the worst in the Western Hemisphere, with nearly half of deaths attributable to HIV/AIDS, respi- ratory infections, meningitis and diarrhoeal diseases, including cholera and typhoid.

© UN Photo/Marco Dormino

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 89 basin development projects, refor- estation, soil conservation and other ecosystem management projects.

Climate services are critical for rebuild- ing devastated areas and constructing new settlements and development centres, as well as for supporting infrastructure such as ports, airports and energy facilities. Weather fore- casts are needed for operating Haiti’s airports and ports, which are vital for the development of tourism and industry.

Towards stronger climate services

Responsibility for climate services is divided between the National

Meteorological Centre (CNM) and the © UN Photo/Pasqual Gorriz Service National des Resources en Eau These Haitian children playing with kites are among the 45 000 at a displaced persons (SNRE), the later operating the hydro- camp, following the January earthquake. They are among the many who will benefit from climatological network and related stronger climate services. data management. Unfortunately, their relatively limited operational capac- ities were weakened further by the Training and long-term educational climate information require signifi- disaster. The capacity to access essen- opportunities are needed for Haitian cant improvement. tial local data and produce forecasts, technical staff, forecasters and early warnings for hydrometeorolog- management. An example is the need Access to effective climate serv - ical hazards and other services was to spend time in an advanced climate ices is vital to Haiti’s recovery and severely constrained, compounded centre where research is undertaken long-term sustainable development. by unreliable telecommunications. the impact of climate change in the The Global Framework for Climate Caribbean. They also need adequate Services will provide a mechanism to Since the earthquake, several coun- basic resources, including computers sustain climate services in Haiti even tries and organizations have supported and communications facilities. when current international attention the Haitian national meteorological eventually decreases. It can bring services, especially to prepare for Access to local data from a modern, experts together, prioritise actions, the 2010 hurricane season. However, sustainable observing system is raise funds and coordinate spend- sustained capacity building efforts are also very important. Water and rain ing. As it evolves, it may also provide required to improve national capabili- measurement networks need to be technical help to carry out regional ties and strengthen regional links. For upgraded, and an agroclimatological programmes, while leveraging instance, Haiti would benefit greatly network established. Databases are regional networks and resource. from being part of a regional cooper- needed to store current and histori- ation framework, in order to leverage cal observational data, and archives resources, expertise, data exchange need to be digitised. Systems to and forecasting capabilities. forecast and spread weather and

90 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 The World Meteorological Organization

Elected members of the Executive Council Working together for monitoring, understanding and predicting weather, climate and water M.A. Abbas (Egypt) G. Adrian (Germany)* A.C. Anuforom (Nigeria)* The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a specialized agency of G.P. Ayers (Australia)* the United Nations. It is the UN system’s authoritative voice on the state O.M.L. Bechir (Mauritania) and behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere, its interaction with the oceans, B.-S. Chun (Republic of Korea)* H.H. Ciappesoni (Argentina) the climate it produces and the resulting distribution of water resources. C. De Simone (Italy)* J.C. Fallas Sojo (Costa Rica)* W. Gamarra Molina (Peru) R. García Herrera (Spain)* N.D. Gordon (New Zealand)* D. Grimes (Canada) The World Meteorological Executive Council J.L Hayes (USA)* Congress J. Hirst (United Kingdom)* President F. Jacq (France)* is the supreme body of the A.I. Bedritsky (Russian Federation) L. Makuleni (Ms) (South Africa) Organization. It brings together First Vice-President J.R. Mukabana (Kenya) delegates of all Members once every A.M. Noorian (Islamic Republic of Iran) M. Ostojski (Poland) four years to determine general Second Vice-President K. Sakurai (Japan)* policies for the fulfilment of the T.W. Sutherland (British Caribbean P. Taalas (Finland)* purposes of the Organization. Territories) A. Tyagi (India)* Third Vice-President F. Uirab (Namibia) A.D. Moura (Brazil) K.S. Yap (Malaysia) The Executive Council G. Zheng (China) is composed of 37 directors Ex officio members of the Executive * acting of National Meteorological or Council (presidents of regional Hydrometeorological Services associations) serving in an individual capacity; it Presidents of technical meets once a year to supervise the Africa (Region I) commissions programmes approved by Congress. M.L. Bah (Guinea) Aeronautical Meteorology Asia (Region II) C.M. Shun V. Chub (Uzbekistan) Agricultural Meteorology The six regional associations South America (Region III) B. Lee are each composed of Members M. Araneda Funtes (Ms) (Chile) Atmospheric Sciences whose task it is to coordinate North America, Central America and M. Béland meteorological, hydrological the Caribbean (Region IV) Basic Systems and related activities within their A.W. Rolle (Bahamas) F.R. Branski respective Regions. South-West Pacific (Region V) Climatology S. Woro B. Harijono (Ms) (Indonesia) T.C. Petersen Europe (Region VI) Hydrology The eight technical commissions I. Čačič (Croatia) B. Stewart are composed of experts designated Instruments and Methods of by Members and are responsible Observation for studying meteorological and B. Calpini hydrological operational systems, Oceanography and Marine applications and research. Meteorology P. Dexter and A.V. Frolov

WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 | 91 Index WMO Bulletin 59 (2010) An index for articles appearing in the WMO Bulletin issues for 2010

Feature articles Paraguay: Promoting meteorology ...... 73 Pioneering the collection and exchange of meteorological Boosting food security ...... 82 data ...... 12 Building a legacy through World Climate Conference-3 .... 27 Public weather services for disaster risk reduction ...... 21 Building capacity around the world ...... 46 Sri Lanka to the world, From ...... 72 Climate services can reverse downward spiral: Tanzania: a wider lens for climate assessment ...... 68 Case study: Haiti ...... 87 WCC-3 High-level Segment: in their own words ...... 30 Evolution of operational hydrology within WMO, The ...... 40 Weather and climate forecasting: chronicle of a revolution 75 Gambia: new seasonal predictions put to work, The ...... 69 WMO Fellowship Programme builds a global cadre ...... 67 Global Atmosphere Watch, The: a history of contributing to Working to standardize instruments and methods of climate monitoring ...... 35 observation ...... 18 Global Satellite Observing System, The: a success story .. 7 World Meteorological Organization in a changing world, Improving cyclone warning: Case study: Philippines ...... 79 The ...... 59 Lithuania: new windows for European cooperation ...... 70 Message from the Secretary-General on the occasion of Interview World Meteorological Day ...... 4 Milestones ...... 54 Kalnay, Eugenia ...... 64

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92 | WMO Bulletin 59 (2) - 2010 youth Vwww.wmo.int/ Weather • Climate • Water Vol. 59 (2) - 2010 BulletinFeature articles | Interviews | News | Book reviews | Calendar www.wmo.int

60 years and Beyond

Interview with IMO Prize winner: Eugenia Kalnay 64

Stories from WMO Fellows around the world 67

World Meteorological Organization

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ISSN 0042-9767 Climate services for Chronicle of the Haiti 87 forecasting revolution 75 Boosting food security 82