Productivity in Indian Banking: 2017 HIDDEN TREASURE How Data Can Turn the Fortunes for Indian Banks
November 2017
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Productivity in Indian Banking: 2017
HIDDEN TREASURE How Data Can Turn the Fortunes for Indian Banks
| Manoj Ramachandran
| Saurabh Tripathi The authors gratefully | Siddhant Mehta acknowledge data and analytical insights from | Varun Kejriwal | Deep N Mukherjee | Yashraj Erande (TransUnion CIBIL)
November 2017 | The Boston Consulting Group CONTENTS
FINANCE IN DIGITAL ERA - NAVIGATING THE KNOWNS 04 AND THE UNKNOWNS 08 REVENUE POOLS AT AN INFLECTION – NEED TO ADJUST STRATEGIES 21 INDIA’S EDGE IN DIGITAL & DATA – TIME TO EMBRACE NEW PARADIGMS "Without data, you're just another person RETAIL & AGRI CREDIT – TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE with an opinion." 33
COMMERCIAL CREDIT – NEW MODELS NEEDED ― W. Edwards Deming 44 48 SMARTER USE OF DATA – RS. 3 LAC CRORE OPPORTUNITY 59 GLOSSARY 60 FOR FURTHER READING 61 NOTE TO THE READER CONTENTS
FINANCE IN DIGITAL ERA - NAVIGATING THE KNOWNS 04 AND THE UNKNOWNS 08 REVENUE POOLS AT AN INFLECTION – NEED TO ADJUST STRATEGIES 21 INDIA’S EDGE IN DIGITAL & DATA – TIME TO EMBRACE NEW PARADIGMS "Without data, you're just another person RETAIL & AGRI CREDIT – TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE with an opinion." 33
COMMERCIAL CREDIT – NEW MODELS NEEDED ― W. Edwards Deming 44 48 SMARTER USE OF DATA – RS. 3 LAC CRORE OPPORTUNITY 59 GLOSSARY 60 FOR FURTHER READING 61 NOTE TO THE READER FINANCE IN DIGITAL ERA - NAVIGATING THE KNOWNS
• r t d t s str t i ss t nd ri riti t n y in t n sti t d in r AND THE UNKNOWNS in st nts t t ns id t nd n ti d t n ny r r n s n st dy it r du in in u inst n s banks’ int rn d t s t su nt d it d in u n y r t s r in t in is is t rn s ur s t dri i u d nt rtn rs i s r s i y isi in t ist ri y s id ns s nt ssin d t i n d t st nd rd tur r int ur s s n u ti in d in u n i s in ns NEED FOR TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE • Savings deposits will increase their significance in the revenue str t y in t in d ys dis urs d in t st u rt rs mix, since rising balances in Jan Dhan accounts, rising • r d t r r dit d isi ns ud nt s i it ti ns in Most Indian banks are under major profitability pressure and need balances due to greater prosperity, and increased digital r d n yti r dit d s i t titi n s n int ns t n y st n s us d a significant boost. While major capital infusion by the transactions will reduce the need for cash withdrawals. Banks su nt n s tr diti n i iti s n r t i r t ut s s d si ni i nt inr ds in government will give the Public Sector Banks the breathing space, that digitize customer on-boarding and transactions will enjoy • r is y nd r n t n d d r us s d ys t st t r y rs it will not be sufficient to restore health of the system. Banks will lower break even costs and access a much broader market. in r s s sts nd i s s rt r ns r r ss s need to adopt new strategies and restructure their business • SME credit will grow from 20% to 25% of the lending revenue it n int nt t t s str i t t r u s ssi s r n n r i ndin r r t n fundamentally. This performance transformation is going to be mix for the system. This will be driven by substitution of it n y t st ss nti u n int r nti n t t is sti t d dis urs nt t n nd challenging for three reasons: informal credit triggered by the introduction of GST, increasing n d d s r in t nu r unts n d r r t • Customer needs are changing; industry’s revenue profile will be digital point of sale (POS) payments and rising sophistication of • st r d isi ns r tt r d isi ns y i y d isi ns t t n sti t d t n sti t d n very different in five years. surrogate data-based credit analytics. t n r r t n s t t s u d n d in d ut r r u ust rs in t s ti r r tin t ir • Unprecedented new competition from NBFCs and Fintech. • Retail credit growth has been steady. It is expected to stabilize usti i d it ri us r u nts r ti r d in n in s r ti t nsu r dur s t rs • The rules of the game are now dramatically in favor of those at this stage with penetration reaching high levels in certain • rtn rs i s r riti n s n d t n u t s usin ss s nd d ns who fully embrace digital segments/select geographies and slower new-to-credit rtn rs i s it t r y rs r d t ss distri uti n customer growth. Smaller ticket borrowing has proliferated in r r ust r r siti n n n nt is is n t ut n s nn t n t ir ts n y n r t i r t i is r in Thankfully for banks, digital infrastructure in India has matured consumer durables and gold loans. Share of youth (< 35 years) tr diti n str n t n its i its r t ur u d t s s t t rt in st t s and is deployable at scale. Most importantly, banks have a huge, among new borrowers grew from 25% to an estimated 40% r d s ur u n tr ti n r t i largely unexploited, advantage on data. between 2013 and 2017. — t r st t s r in ind s r y i r t t • There is a major structural shift from deposits to mutual funds dditi n t r dit ust rs u d n d stru tur r r s MAJOR SHIFTS IN CUSTOMER PREFERENCES — REVENUE for savings. Fee income will be a major profitability booster for t t r du r i dis riti s in n i d nt nd PROFILE OF INDUSTRY SET TO CHANGE DRAMATICALLY banks who play a role in advising their clients on investments. s n u s t t n in in r stru tur ndin risis r ti n st y rs d id d t n t ir ts n r t i t i There are a few fundamental changes in the revenue profile of ADVANCED DIGITAL AND DATA PLATFORMS IN INDIA — ndin s n t y t dis int d r st i y rs t r s — Indian banking:. BANKS NEED TO EMBRACE A PARADIGM SHIFT n n sti t d nnu r t in dis urs nt nd r • Large and mid-corporate businesses that today bring 39% of nnu r t in in uiri s ittin t ur us d d ts lending revenue will bring only 27% by 2022, driven by Indian banks have access to world class platforms to meet their d u nd t ur u s r r i ust rs s in r i ndin t n in industry r movement of large ticket credit to wholesale markets and challenges. The India stack platform has already reduced the cost r i in ns s st y d r d y n ist ri in s r rd d nt r i s s s t t t id r r t lingering bad debts in corporate segments. As high rated of customer on-boarding and transactions dramatically. The cost nd r r s nts t n t i st it ur u d t borrowers switch to capital markets, banks will be left with of on-boarding a customer for investment advisory is down by 90%. r industry is st t t i its st it n r is s t i i t si ni i nt un unts t t r lesser rated clients on their books and will require sharper Many banks have over 80% of new customer on-boarding purely t r dit ust rs s r rti n n ns i n d in n n ut n t d in n t r si ni i nt rt credit processes. Corporate banking will have to be much more through e-KYC. The quality of India's credit bureau infrastructure d n st di y y r r in t n t nt s u d s i in n t u rt rs r nu working capital and transaction oriented. Staff productivity is rated higher than that in OECD countries by the World Bank and sti t d in ur u d t s s s t t ust rs r id nd r r r t s i r y st y su du d r t n t have to be upgraded to the next level with data analytics. is now reaching coverage of over 40%. There are few key paradigm r r ssi y r r d r rti n ust rs it y rs du t str ss in t ndin s shifts that banks need to embrace in such context: t r r in s r dit nd i in t ird n nt u r
4 | HIDDEN TREASURE THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP FICCI IBA | 5 FINANCE IN DIGITAL ERA - NAVIGATING THE KNOWNS
• r t d t s str t i ss t nd ri riti t n y in t n sti t d in r AND THE UNKNOWNS in st nts t t ns id t nd n ti d t n ny r r n s n st dy it r du in in u inst n s banks’ int rn d t s t su nt d it d in u n y r t s r in t in is is t rn s ur s t dri i u d nt rtn rs i s r s i y isi in t ist ri y s id ns s nt ssin d t i n d t st nd rd tur r int ur s s n u ti in d in u n i s in ns NEED FOR TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE • Savings deposits will increase their significance in the revenue str t y in t in d ys dis urs d in t st u rt rs mix, since rising balances in Jan Dhan accounts, rising • r d t r r dit d isi ns ud nt s i it ti ns in Most Indian banks are under major profitability pressure and need balances due to greater prosperity, and increased digital r d n yti r dit d s i t titi n s n int ns t n y st n s us d a significant boost. While major capital infusion by the transactions will reduce the need for cash withdrawals. Banks su nt n s tr diti n i iti s n r t i r t ut s s d si ni i nt inr ds in government will give the Public Sector Banks the breathing space, that digitize customer on-boarding and transactions will enjoy • r is y nd r n t n d d r us s d ys t st t r y rs it will not be sufficient to restore health of the system. Banks will lower break even costs and access a much broader market. in r s s sts nd i s s rt r ns r r ss s need to adopt new strategies and restructure their business • SME credit will grow from 20% to 25% of the lending revenue it n int nt t t s str i t t r u s ssi s r n n r i ndin r r t n fundamentally. This performance transformation is going to be mix for the system. This will be driven by substitution of it n y t st ss nti u n int r nti n t t is sti t d dis urs nt t n nd challenging for three reasons: informal credit triggered by the introduction of GST, increasing n d d s r in t nu r unts n d r r t • Customer needs are changing; industry’s revenue profile will be digital point of sale (POS) payments and rising sophistication of • st r d isi ns r tt r d isi ns y i y d isi ns t t n sti t d t n sti t d n very different in five years. surrogate data-based credit analytics. t n r r t n s t t s u d n d in d ut r r u ust rs in t s ti r r tin t ir • Unprecedented new competition from NBFCs and Fintech. • Retail credit growth has been steady. It is expected to stabilize usti i d it ri us r u nts r ti r d in n in s r ti t nsu r dur s t rs • The rules of the game are now dramatically in favor of those at this stage with penetration reaching high levels in certain • rtn rs i s r riti n s n d t n u t s usin ss s nd d ns who fully embrace digital segments/select geographies and slower new-to-credit rtn rs i s it t r y rs r d t ss distri uti n customer growth. Smaller ticket borrowing has proliferated in r r ust r r siti n n n nt is is n t ut n s nn t n t ir ts n y n r t i r t i is r in Thankfully for banks, digital infrastructure in India has matured consumer durables and gold loans. Share of youth (< 35 years) tr diti n str n t n its i its r t ur u d t s s t t rt in st t s and is deployable at scale. Most importantly, banks have a huge, among new borrowers grew from 25% to an estimated 40% r d s ur u n tr ti n r t i largely unexploited, advantage on data. between 2013 and 2017. — t r st t s r in ind s r y i r t t • There is a major structural shift from deposits to mutual funds dditi n t r dit ust rs u d n d stru tur r r s MAJOR SHIFTS IN CUSTOMER PREFERENCES — REVENUE for savings. Fee income will be a major profitability booster for t t r du r i dis riti s in n i d nt nd PROFILE OF INDUSTRY SET TO CHANGE DRAMATICALLY banks who play a role in advising their clients on investments. s n u s t t n in in r stru tur ndin risis r ti n st y rs d id d t n t ir ts n r t i t i There are a few fundamental changes in the revenue profile of ADVANCED DIGITAL AND DATA PLATFORMS IN INDIA — ndin s n t y t dis int d r st i y rs t r s — Indian banking:. BANKS NEED TO EMBRACE A PARADIGM SHIFT n n sti t d nnu r t in dis urs nt nd r • Large and mid-corporate businesses that today bring 39% of nnu r t in in uiri s ittin t ur us d d ts lending revenue will bring only 27% by 2022, driven by Indian banks have access to world class platforms to meet their d u nd t ur u s r r i ust rs s in r i ndin t n in industry r movement of large ticket credit to wholesale markets and challenges. The India stack platform has already reduced the cost r i in ns s st y d r d y n ist ri in s r rd d nt r i s s s t t t id r r t lingering bad debts in corporate segments. As high rated of customer on-boarding and transactions dramatically. The cost nd r r s nts t n t i st it ur u d t borrowers switch to capital markets, banks will be left with of on-boarding a customer for investment advisory is down by 90%. r industry is st t t i its st it n r is s t i i t si ni i nt un unts t t r lesser rated clients on their books and will require sharper Many banks have over 80% of new customer on-boarding purely t r dit ust rs s r rti n n ns i n d in n n ut n t d in n t r si ni i nt rt credit processes. Corporate banking will have to be much more through e-KYC. The quality of India's credit bureau infrastructure d n st di y y r r in t n t nt s u d s i in n t u rt rs r nu working capital and transaction oriented. Staff productivity is rated higher than that in OECD countries by the World Bank and sti t d in ur u d t s s s t t ust rs r id nd r r r t s i r y st y su du d r t n t have to be upgraded to the next level with data analytics. is now reaching coverage of over 40%. There are few key paradigm r r ssi y r r d r rti n ust rs it y rs du t str ss in t ndin s shifts that banks need to embrace in such context: t r r in s r dit nd i in t ird n nt u r
4 | HIDDEN TREASURE THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP FICCI IBA | 5 s a s n n n a s s n a estimate stomer pri e elasti it to introd e al e based pri in • tilit bill pa ment in ormation s a n s ans s as b n a s ab k n n n a s banks a n ss s n and ontrol al e t at is destro ed b indis riminate dis o ntin • ario s ta pa ment in ormation n s ba an an a a a a s n as a b s s a a n n b t e ront line • ransa tions and pa ments data s s n n n a n n s s n banks’ b ks n sk s ana n s n n an n n ass a k n s n a s anks need to le era e n b a s b n a k a a n order to s pport a n s a n n n b s anks n n s n a an na s b di ital models to reate lo ost ad isor plat orms it i to t e de elopment o olesale ndin a ess to b rea ma be a n s b s n ss s n s a ss sa a k s s pport t e mass market in in estin t eir sa in s in m t al pro ided to instit tional in estors in bond market and on ersel n a bank n n k n nds and ot er non deposit prod ts bond market data s bmitted to b rea b s a b n s nn b a n s a a a nan an as ana n b a k ab a nan a s s n an n n an n a a n n n s ns a ab s an n as lar e se ment o ns n a a a a a ss s a a a a a a n s b n a a ab a an n a an ana s n an t e bankin ind str does not a e stron te nolo and ere is si ni i ant inno ation takin pla e in retail as ell as banks s b s ss b a n n an a n s a a a ss a anal ti s enabled olle tion pro esses s retail lendin ro s into ommer ial lendin — espe iall at t e lo er end o t e ti ket s a a s n s na n an s an a n a k n s n s a ma or part o bank balan e s eets and t e n mber o loans size spe tr m inno ation is e tremel elp l or t e e plodes it smaller ti ket lendin proli eratin it is important in l sion a enda o e er t e most pre io s el or s n as b n n ns n s an n bank n t at banks deplo te nolo enabled and anal ti s dri en inno ation is not risk apital or entreprene rial spirit b t t e a a a n s n b n n s n s n s n n s a entralized approa to olle tions a ailabilit o data o ernment and e lator a e to reate an n n s b s n s b n b s s a n s a a a b a n a n an enablin en ironment to ens re t at data is made a ailable to t e ba b as as a s an ana s n banks’ a ab s n ass ss n in e start ps is o ld take orm in t o a s s n as s n s a a a k s a b n a an n a a n n s na s • pedite t e ele troni onsent ar ite t re so t at an s banks a n s stomer an pro ide ele troni onsent or a potential lender a na s a n n n s a to a ess er transa tion re ords ele troni all it t e n as n n a as a an s ab a s a enetration o retail or redit aries er customer’s transa tion bank and tilities a aa n as s ss b a si ni i antl a ross states some states rea er ad an ed • n o ra e banks and b rea s to pro ide data as p bli ood — banks’ — n s b a n s a ab s ss b n sa penetration ile ot ers trail be ind ite se erel learl to t e in e ind str in a sand bo model b b a bank n n s as n a n a a n a n s n n s n a n despite t e o erall n mbers o redit penetration bein lo or t e a a a as ansa n a n s s an ns n s s b s ss o ntr t ere is a nat ral limit to at banks an p s on t eir n n a n n s an a s an a anks dis ar e n a n as a ss b a a a anks a a a n an a a n n n s a o n t eir role it elp o s pportin e os stem — ontra t b s a a n s s a an n s an a an n s n n an bank n n en or ement and bankr pt resol tion redit ratin in ormation s n b ‘most personalized’ s n n n s a ns a n n s s s s a a a a a ab rea in rastr t re in t e b rea and a o ntin a dit ser i e pro iders oli makers s s s ba b n s s s a o ntr is orld lass — t anks to po er l enablin le islation need to ind a s to take t e alit and a t enti it o t e a dit n n n an banks s an a a a as n anks and poli makers are et to ll re o nize its al e and and a o ntin ser i e to t e ne t le el to pro ide bankers it s a s s s a banks an n n ass s n s n s n n a as deplo t e insi ts into strate and poli orm lation rea s more reliable in ormation on i to take de isions b as as s a a a a n n n as a s n s n s an n s n n pro ide data t at is in al able to banks or lendin in t e absen e s a ns s an s a a s na a n an n s a b s a n o reliable inan ials oli makers need to stren t en banks and a a a an a a s banks and man ot er n a n s n s a ann s s a n banks a a s n b rea s it additional data ields to bolster t e alit o insi ts ind stries start apt rin and le era in stomer data to a ess a an a a n n s na s an ns s a s n s a a s n a a sk bas t e an arner re ardin t e redit alit o potential borro ers risk and b siness potential it is riti al t at la s re ardin pri a ana s n a n s a ass s an n bank n ab b bas s e additional areas are o stomer in ormation and litera o stomer re ardin t eir ana a ns s an n s n s a bank banks n s ri ts is stren t ened in parallel to pre ent mis se
6 | HIDDEN TREASURE THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP FICCI IBA | 7 s a s n n n a s s n a estimate stomer pri e elasti it to introd e al e based pri in • tilit bill pa ment in ormation s a n s ans s as b n a s ab k n n n a s banks a n ss s n and ontrol al e t at is destro ed b indis riminate dis o ntin • ario s ta pa ment in ormation n s ba an an a a a a s n as a b s s a a n n b t e ront line • ransa tions and pa ments data s s n n n a n n s s n banks’ b ks n sk s ana n s n n an n n ass a k n s n a s anks need to le era e n b a s b n a k a a n order to s pport a n s a n n n b s anks n n s n a an na s b di ital models to reate lo ost ad isor plat orms it i to t e de elopment o olesale ndin a ess to b rea ma be a n s b s n ss s n s a ss sa a k s s pport t e mass market in in estin t eir sa in s in m t al pro ided to instit tional in estors in bond market and on ersel n a bank n n k n nds and ot er non deposit prod ts bond market data s bmitted to b rea b s a b n s nn b a n s a a a nan an as ana n b a k ab a nan a s s n an n n an n a a n n n s ns a ab s an n as lar e se ment o ns n a a a a a ss s a a a a a a n s b n a a ab a an n a an ana s n an t e bankin ind str does not a e stron te nolo and ere is si ni i ant inno ation takin pla e in retail as ell as banks s b s ss b a n n an a n s a a a ss a anal ti s enabled olle tion pro esses s retail lendin ro s into ommer ial lendin — espe iall at t e lo er end o t e ti ket s a a s n s na n an s an a n a k n s n s a ma or part o bank balan e s eets and t e n mber o loans size spe tr m inno ation is e tremel elp l or t e e plodes it smaller ti ket lendin proli eratin it is important in l sion a enda o e er t e most pre io s el or s n as b n n ns n s an n bank n t at banks deplo te nolo enabled and anal ti s dri en inno ation is not risk apital or entreprene rial spirit b t t e a a a n s n b n n s n s n s n n s a entralized approa to olle tions a ailabilit o data o ernment and e lator a e to reate an n n s b s n s b n b s s a n s a a a b a n a n an enablin en ironment to ens re t at data is made a ailable to t e ba b as as a s an ana s n banks’ a ab s n ass ss n in e start ps is o ld take orm in t o a s s n as s n s a a a k s a b n a an n a a n n s na s • pedite t e ele troni onsent ar ite t re so t at an s banks a n s stomer an pro ide ele troni onsent or a potential lender a na s a n n n s a to a ess er transa tion re ords ele troni all it t e n as n n a as a an s ab a s a enetration o retail or redit aries er customer’s transa tion bank and tilities a aa n as s ss b a si ni i antl a ross states some states rea er ad an ed • n o ra e banks and b rea s to pro ide data as p bli ood — banks’ — n s b a n s a ab s ss b n sa penetration ile ot ers trail be ind ite se erel learl to t e in e ind str in a sand bo model b b a bank n n s as n a n a a n a n s n n s n a n despite t e o erall n mbers o redit penetration bein lo or t e a a a as ansa n a n s s an ns n s s b s ss o ntr t ere is a nat ral limit to at banks an p s on t eir n n a n n s an a s an a anks dis ar e n a n as a ss b a a a anks a a a n an a a n n n s a o n t eir role it elp o s pportin e os stem — ontra t b s a a n s s a an n s an a an n s n n an bank n n en or ement and bankr pt resol tion redit ratin in ormation s n b ‘most personalized’ s n n n s a ns a n n s s s s a a a a a ab rea in rastr t re in t e b rea and a o ntin a dit ser i e pro iders oli makers s s s ba b n s s s a o ntr is orld lass — t anks to po er l enablin le islation need to ind a s to take t e alit and a t enti it o t e a dit n n n an banks s an a a a as n anks and poli makers are et to ll re o nize its al e and and a o ntin ser i e to t e ne t le el to pro ide bankers it s a s s s a banks an n n ass s n s n s n n a as deplo t e insi ts into strate and poli orm lation rea s more reliable in ormation on i to take de isions b as as s a a a a n n n as a s n s n s an n s n n pro ide data t at is in al able to banks or lendin in t e absen e s a ns s an s a a s na a n an n s a b s a n o reliable inan ials oli makers need to stren t en banks and a a a an a a s banks and man ot er n a n s n s a ann s s a n banks a a s n b rea s it additional data ields to bolster t e alit o insi ts ind stries start apt rin and le era in stomer data to a ess a an a a n n s na s an ns s a s n s a a s n a a sk bas t e an arner re ardin t e redit alit o potential borro ers risk and b siness potential it is riti al t at la s re ardin pri a ana s n a n s a ass s an n bank n ab b bas s e additional areas are o stomer in ormation and litera o stomer re ardin t eir ana a ns s an n s n s a bank banks n s ri ts is stren t ened in parallel to pre ent mis se
6 | HIDDEN TREASURE THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP FICCI IBA | 7
• re e ue oo m c e s c t o er e t e rs – re u r ustme ts str te es ll fi res in s s r us ess mo e s • or or te se me t c s o ces re e ues to to s r to – r e mo eme t o etail c ar es reas ry er r e cor or tes to e t m r ets er e ts etail cor or te se me ts • et e re e ue oo ro t s c ose to ts e rocessin fees ecovery sust e r te ecte to st e t curre t r te avin s • s re e ue oo to et ue to er ri t t o r s ces ccou ts rofit on sale e ects o r s ros er t o ces of assets – ot er inco e • to o er rom s u s e s s re e orporate rrent re e ues cre ses rom to to – r e su st tut o o orm cre t t re orms e t me ts t eposits dvances ee inco e t er inco e istrib tion • o ut o s s ts to r s mutu u s provide an inflection in bank’s fee and advisory come – s cou s re o er o str utors to s ore u t e r ro t t ankin reven e pools stood at s lacs r at end of bo t t o t irds of t is reven es ca e fro conventional b siness of e tendin advances acceptin deposits ile re ainin as acco nted for by fee distrib tion advisory and ot er inco es t is interestin to note t at t er inco e co prisin of non rec rrin inco e s c as treas ry ains recovery fro rite offs and profit on sale of assets acco nted for of entire reven e pool – lar er t an entire distrib tion inco e