1 Original research paper

2

3 Mega infrastructure and implication to regional

4 tourism: case study of and

5

6 Jason M.C. Ni1 *

7

8 1 Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, City University of Hong Kong

9

10 Abstract

11 With a rapid growth of gaming market, the number of tourists to Macau increased at exponential rate

12 in recent years. To ensure a desirable environment, many mega infrastructure projects have been

13 proposed and constructed. Internally, the Macau Light Rail (LRT) system is now under construction to

14 facilitate local transportation. Externally, Hong Kong--Macau Bridge (HZMB) is constructed to

15 link Macau with Delta (PRD) region. In a broader sense, above infrastructure development

16 affected not only Macau, but also Hong Kong.

17 Some key questions are to be answered – How can destinations cope with rapid tourism growth,

18 especially by considering future infrastructure? To understand people’s response to future mega

19 infrastructures, a large-scale stated preference (SP) survey has been conducted in 2010 by Macau

20 government. The survey aimed to several important issues; for example, how would travel

21 behavior change after the opening of mega infrastructures (e.g., LRT, HZMB)? Initial findings indicate

22 that; in terms of external transportation, most visitors (54%) would still choose ferry; even when HZMB

23 is available. In terms of internal transportation, LRT attracts more “walking” people (50%) than public

24 bus or casino shuttle riders.

25 Similar to above study, there is another survey done by University of Hong Kong with specific focus

26 on HZMB. In that survey, 300 respondents show their expectation on time saving from HZMB (vs.

27 existing Ferry) is around 1~1.5 hour; correspondingly, the predicted money to save is roughly from

28 HKD $41~100. The 300 respondents were also asked their preference in reducing total travelling time

29 or money (if can only choose one) under different time/money saving scenarios. Such question is

30 designed to test the price sensitivity versus time sensitivity. A trend can be observed from survey

31 results – with more time/money to be saved (as % to total trip), people more likely to choose time-

32 saving, instead of money-saving.

33

34 Keywords:

35 Mega Infrastructure, , LRT, HZMB, Stated Preference, Implication

36 37 1 Introduction

38 With a rapid growth since the liberalization of gaming market in 2002, the number of tourists to Macau

39 increased at exponential rate in recent years. In 2012, the visitors to Macau reached more than 28

40 million/year, brought about 38 billion USD gross gaming revenue. In 2015, the visitors to Macau even

41 achieve a peak of 30.7 million/year. As a city with 30.5 km2 and local population of 652,500 (2016),

42 massive number of visitors means high density as well as challenge on the capacity of

43 accommodation.

44 To ensure a desirable living and tourism environment, mega infrastructure projects have been

45 proposed by Macau government. Internally, in order to balance and re-distribute the population

46 density, big development projects were proposed in Taipa1; including the Strip Project2 and

47 Government Public/Economic Housing Program. Taking advantage of the new reclamation in Taipa,

48 such projects contain development from the scratch, including the zoning plan and road network

49 system. Besides, the Macau Light Rail Transit (LRT) project was constructed to facilitate the local

50 transportation and to replace the casino shuttles to certain extent. In addition to three existing bridges,

51 the 4th linkage between Macau and Taipa was planned for better internal connection. Externally,

52 various transportation mega projects were proposed (or already under construction) to strengthen the

53 linkage between Macau and the outside world, including: Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (HZMB),

54 Regional Rail System, and undersea tunnel to , etc.

55 In a broader sense, above infrastructure development affected not only Macau, but also Hong

56 Kong. Several key questions are to be answered in this paper, including – How can destinations (like

57 Hong Kong and Macau) cope with rapid tourism growth, especially by taking into consideration of

58 future infrastructure? Are all mega-infrastructure developments driven by mobility and/or tourism?

59 Thus, this paper aims for a strategic analysis and for addressing issues in two aspects. First, this

60 study intends to provide a deep understanding of regional transportation blueprint, related

61 government policies, and current status of major infrastructure building in Pearl River Delta (PRD)

62 region. Second, this study attempts to understand the influence of the planned new projects,

63 especially on their impacts in the regional transportation scale, based on travel behavior survey.

1 The territory of Macau contains and the Taipa island. 2 It is a project with a goal of developing a Las Vegas type of “Strip” containing more than 20 casinos/resorts.

64 2 Literature review

65 2.1 Planning Study on the Coordinated Development of the Great Pearl River Delta Township

66 As a joint effort between Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of

67 Province, Development Bureau of Hong Kong SAR, and Secretariat for Transport and Public Works of

68 Macau SAR, the “Planning Study on the Coordinated Development of the Great Pearl River Delta

69 (PRD) Township” was released in 2009. Having the function as a high level planning guidance, the

70 planning study defined Hong Kong as International Metropolis, and International Finance, Trading,

71 Shipping, Logistic Center; and Macau as Global Tourism and Leisure Center. Other major cities in the

72 PRD region were also defined based specific function and development potential.

73 In terms of overall land development concept, “Master Spatial Layout Coordination” was

74 emphasized in the planning study. The PRD was defined as a region with 50 million people, 9 major

75 cities, and 3 metropolitan circles (Fig. 1). In addition, other spatial planning ideas; such as: “one area

76 three regions, three axes and four layers” were also addressed in this planning study.

77

78

79 Fig. 1 Planned Township Development of Pearl River Delta (Source: Planning Study on the

80 Coordinated Development of the Great Pearl River Delta Township, 2009)

81 In terms of transportation, the concept of cooperated development was mentioned in the PRD

82 planning study. “1-hour Traffic Circle” is defined as the urban/metropolitan area, which can be

83 internally accessible within an hour by using different travel means (Fig. 2). Furthermore, five major

84 transportation systems of PRD were specifically highlighted, including: 85 1. Multi-airport System: open (low-altitude) air for 5 regional airports, shared resources/labor,

86 helicopter system, etc.

87 2. Integrated Port System: coordinate function of ports through negotiation between operators,

88 improve cargo transfer efficiency, etc.

89 3. Regional Railway System: Strengthen Macau-HK Route, Multi-modal coordination with port

90 and airport

91 4. Regional Expressway System: Further connect Guangdong with Hong Kong, Macau, and

92 other provinces

93 5. Waterway Passenger System: Make full use of waterway transportation, especially during

94 peak season (Chinese New Year, Golden week, etc.)

95

96 Fig. 2. Concept of 1-hour Traffic Circle (Source: Planning Study on the Coordinated Development of

97 the Great Pearl River Delta Township, 2009)

98 2.2 Cross-boundary travel survey

99 In addition to the aforementioned PRD Township Planning Study, Hong Kong Planning Department

100 has been conducting the Cross-boundary Travel Survey since 1999 to collect statistical information

101 about the characteristics of cross-boundary trips and trip makers on a regular basis. A Cross-

102 boundary Travel Survey was conducted during October 28 to November 10, 2011. The publication

103 entitled “Northbound Southbound 2011” presents the findings of the Cross-boundary Travel Survey

104 2011, with statistical tables contain detailed statistics of the 2011 and the past Cross-boundary Travel

105 Surveys.

106 Generally speaking, with strong tie between Hong Kong, China and Macau, tremendous

107 growth in cross-boundary travel was observed over the years. The average daily number of 616,500

108 cross-boundary passenger trips3 in 2011 as recorded in the two-week survey period, was about 1.7

109 times that of 357,400 in 2001 (Fig. 3). Similarly, according to the administrative records, there were

110 also rapid increases in the average daily cross-boundary vehicle trips, from 31,000 per day in 2001 to

111 42,800 per day in 2011 (Fig. 4).

112

113 Fig. 3. Average Daily Cross-Boundary Passenger Trips (Source: Cross-boundary Travel Survey, 2011)

114

115 Fig. 4. Average Daily Cross-Boundary Vehicle Trips (Source: Cross-boundary Travel Survey, 2011)

116

117 The trip between Hong Kong and Macau is one focus in the Cross-boundary Travel Survey. During

118 the two-week survey period in 2011, there were an average daily of 54,100 passenger trips between

3 The definition of cross-boundary trip was one-way movement between Hong Kong, China and Macau in either direction. 119 Hong Kong and Macau made through China Ferry Terminal, Hong Kong-Macau Ferry Terminal and

120 Tuen Mun Ferry Terminal in both directions, representing an increase of 16.0% over the 46,600 trips

121 per day recorded in 2009.

122 Fig. 5 presents “average daily passenger trips between Hong Kong and Macau – by direction, and

123 by usual place of residence”. Four different groups of passengers on the basis of their usual places of

124 residence (e.g., Hong Kong, Macau, China, and Other) were distinguished for analytical purposes.

125 Several interesting patterns can be observed. The majority of trips between Hong Kong and Macau

126 were made by people living in Hong Kong. They took up 61.6% of all trips in 2011. In terms of number

127 increase, trips made by people living in Hong Kong actually rose by 15.6%, from an average daily of

128 28,800 in 2009 to 33,300 in 2011.

129 Another group with rapid growth of cross-boundary travel is people living in the Mainland. The

130 number of passenger trips between Hong Kong and Macau made by people living in the Mainland

131 increased by 21.6% from an average daily of 5,700 in 2009 to 6,900 in 2011. It is noted that departure

132 trips to Macau significantly outnumbered arrival trips, suggesting that it was common for people living

133 in the Mainland to travel from Hong Kong to Macau and then returned to the Mainland direct from

134 Macau rather than through Hong Kong.

135

136 Fig. 5. Average Daily Passenger Trips between Hong Kong and Macau

137 by Direction by Usual Place of Residence (Source: Cross-boundary Travel Survey, 2011)

138

139 Trip purpose was also recorded in the Cross-boundary Survey. For example, a large proportion of

140 People Living in Hong Kong visited Macau for leisure. Of the average of 33,300 trips they made per

141 day in 2011, 73.9% were for leisure, 13.7% for visiting relatives and friends and 8.6% for business.

142 Compared with the 2009 Survey, the average daily of leisure trips increased by 17.2% from 21,000 to

143 24,600 in 2011.

144 2.3 Long-range transportation master plan of Macau (2010-2020)

145 With an initiative of Macau Department of Transportation (DSAT) and involvement from international

146 transportation consultants and experts, the “Long-range Transportation Master Plan of Macau (2010-

147 2020)” was completed in 2010. Taking into consideration of mega infrastructure development in the

148 future, this transportation master plan described not only future projects, but also how those mega

149 developments affect travel pattern, living environment, even the economy of Macau.

150 Using “Long-range Transportation Master Plan of Macau (2010-2020)” as a policy whitepaper,

151 Macau government is gradually implementing its short-term, mid-term and long-term goals, including:

152 restructuring public transport in 2012 to enhance commuting, opening light rail in 2015 4 to

153 comprehensively prioritize public transport, and interconnecting regional transport in 2020 to realize

154 the vision of green transportation, etc. Several of the key infrastructures were described in the

155 following.

156 3 Status of infrastructure projects in pearl river delta

157 3.1 Macau light rail transit (LRT)

158 Adopting a holistic concept of public transport networks, Macau government consider the Light Rail

159 (LRT, Fig. 6) as the backbone; supported by buses and taxis (for the first and last mile), to create a

160 better commuting environment for residents and tourists. Macau LRT is designed to be 21 km long

161 with 21 stations, with headway of 3~6 minutes, average speed of 33km/hr, and maximum capacity of

162 8,000 people/hr/direction.

4 The Macau LRT was under significant delay. Only the Taipa section is currently under construction and expected to open no early than 2019. 163

164 Fig. 6. Macau Light Rail Transit (Source: Macau government)

165

166 Construction of the Light Rail Transit (LRT) system began in 2011 – starting from the LRT Taipa

167 section; then LRT Macau (peninsula) section. The construction of the “heart” of LRT system (i.e., the

168 depot) commenced on November 23, 2011. This represents an important milestone for light rail

169 project. The whole LRT project was expected to be completed in May, 2015, as originally planned.

170 However, due to various reasons (e.g., shortage of labour, design and procedure flaws) the whole

171 LRT construction was under significant delay. So far, only the LRT Taipa section is under construction.

172 The LRT Macau section is now paused (i.e., all the primary design is completed, but not entering the

173 construction) due to labour issues and protest of local residents.

174 Considering above situation, Macau government would try to ensure the LRT Taipa section open in

175 2019. For the LRT Macau section, due to its significant delay, there is emerging voice from local

176 politicians urging the stop of construction. Thus, one reasonable short-term scenario is the “half-LRT”

177 serving the Taipa island (where is located), up to Barra temple in Macau peninsula. With

178 this compromised route, the usage of LRT (for both tourists and local residents) will be affected.

179 Besides, other issues will further lower tourists’ intention of using LRT, including: insufficient room for

180 luggage inside LRT cars, no direct linkage from all LRT stations to resort properties, etc. Eventually,

181 we may expect more local residents using LRT than tourists – especially casino/resort employees

182 living in Taipa island.

183 3.2 Regional rail system

184

185 Fig. 7 Regional Rail System of PRD (Source: Hong Kong government)

186

187 Fig. 7 describes the Regional Rail System of Pearl River Delta. One important section is the High-

188 speed Rail (HSR) extension from to Hong Kong (shown in purple). This project was also

189 delayed due to the boycotted funding mechanism in Hong Kong. Another critical section is the

190 “-Zhuhai Intercity Rail” (Fig. 8). To fulfill the seamless transfer between Taipa and Zhuhai

191 (through Hengqin Border), the “Guangzhou-Zhuhai Intercity Rail” and “Macau LRT Hengqin Extension”

192 (shown in orange, Fig. 6) need to be both finished.

193 Fig. 8 shows the route map of Guangzhou-Zhuhai Intercity Rail, the route between Zhuhai CBD to

194 Zhuhai airport (circled in GREEN) started from 2012 and expected to be finished by end of 2016. By

195 then, we can expect some very different ways of entering Macau from Mainland China. 196

197 Fig. 8 Route map of Guangzhou Zhuhai intercity rail (Source: Guangdong Province government)

198

199 3.3 Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge (HZMB)

200 As discussed, the LRT system enhances transport within Macau and connects to railways in mainland

201 China, promoting integration of Macau and the Pearl River Delta region. The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-

202 Macau Bridge is another crucial transport link with mainland China. Total length of HZMB Main Bridge

203 is about 29.6 km, including an under-sea tunnel of 6.7 km; and two artificial . The east end of

204 HZMB connects to Hong Kong (near Hong Kong International airport); the west end connects to both

205 Zhuhai and Macau – to form a “Single Y” alignment (Fig. 9).

206 According to current plan, the HZMB’s landing point will be at the east-north corner of Macau

207 peninsula (i.e., near the “arc”). However, the current environment (i.e., high-rise buildings with high

208 density, narrow and complicated road network) of that location is not perfect to accommodate the

209 HZMB traffic. In terms of construction, the bridge construction on the Zhuhai-Macau artificial island is

210 now progressing satisfactorily. The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge is expected to be completed for

211 operation in 2017.

212 There will be vehicle control on HZMB. For private vehicle to use the bridge; the dual-license (i.e.,

213 Hong Kong-Guangzhou) is needed, and the toll is around 100 ~ 150 RMB/car. Vehicle without dual-

214 license can apply daily quota for day-pass of HZMB use; according to senior government official of

215 Hong Kong. For tourism shuttle bus or limo; there will be quota control on using the bridge as well.

216 However, a lot of the vehicle control policies are still under discussion between Hong Kong, Macau

217 and Chinese government.

218

219

220

221

222

223

224

225

226

227

228 Fig. 9 Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (Source: Hong Kong government)

229 3.4 Hengqin development

230 The development of Hengqin island can be considered as another type of infrastructure. On August

231 14, 2009, the China State Council approved the implementation of the Overall Development Plan of

232 Hengqin, which incorporates Hengqin Island into Zhuhai Special Economic Zone, aimed at developing

233 Hengqin into a demonstration area for exploring new mode of cooperation between Guangdong,

234 Hong Kong and Macao under the policy of “One Country, Two Systems”.

235 On December 16, 2009, Hengqin New Development Zone was officially established. It is the third

236 national-level New Development Zone, founded after Shanghai Pudong and Tianjin Binhai New

237 Development Zone.

238 The CIQ (Custom, Immigration, Quarantine) process is a key for the Hengqin development. The

239 CIQ management is implemented on the principles of “easing first tier/hierarchy, controlling second 240 tier/hierarchy, separating passengers from goods, and managing by classification”. On April 11, 2013,

241 the “Supervision and Administration Measures” for Entry-Exit Inspection and Quarantine in Hengqin

242 was issued. The document clearly defined the CIQ procedures under “first tier” and “second tier”:

243 “First Tier”: The ports between Hengqin and Macau are defined as “the first tier”. People need to go

244 through a simple CIQ process in the First Tier. The border crossing between Hengqin and Macau can

245 be further simplified in the future, which would justify Hengqin’s integration with Macau.

246 “Second Tier”: The channels connecting Hengqin and downtown Zhuhai are defined as “the

247 second tier”. Starting from August 1st 2013, the Hengqin new development zone started to implement

248 new measures to facilitate entry into the district for Macau vehicles and tax exemptions for Macau

249 products.

250 4 Response to mega infrastructure

251 4.1 Macau DSAT’s trip survey

252 To understand people’s behavioral response to future mega infrastructures, a large-scale trip survey

253 has been conducted in 2010 by Macau Department of Transportation (DSAT). Total 2,400 valid

254 samples were collected containing local residents (1200) and tourists (1200). The residents were

255 further categorized by trip type (internal vs. external), and the tourists were separated according to

256 their locations of residence. The sample composition of DSAT’s trip survey is shown in Table 1.

257

258 Table 1 Sample composition of Macau DSAT’s trip survey

Sample Size

Making Internal Trip 900 RESIDENT Making External Trip 300 (total 1200) (Cross-Border) (With Car = 232; Without Car = 68)

TOURIST From HK and Shenzhen 496

(total 1200) Others 704

259

260 The survey aimed to address one important research question – how would people’s travel

261 behavior change after the opening of all mega infrastructures (e.g., LRT, HZMB)? Taking HZMB as

262 one example, the competition between current ferry services and the bridge is important for future

263 transportation planning in PRD region. In a hypothetical question asking how people will travel after

264 the opening of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (HZMB), 54% of tourists and 66% no-car residents

265 remain on ferry, while only 44% of car-owning resident still choose to take ferry after the opening of

266 HZMB (Fig. 10).

267

268 Fig. 10 Travel Mode Share after opening of HZMB (Source: Macau DSAT’s Trip Survey, 2011)

269

270 One thing to be noted, in the survey of 2011, many details of HZMB remained unsure (e.g., toll,

271 speed limit, permission on private vehicle entering Macau); thus, respondents answered “hypothetical

272 questions” purely based on their initial knowledge on future mega infrastructure (no hint was given to

273 respondents during the survey). People’s travel response might change after they fully realize after

274 experiencing the HZMB, and after the perceived utility getting constructed.

275 4.2 HKU study: expected saving of time and money after the opening of HZMB

276 University of Hong Kong conducted a series studies about the travel behavior change after the

277 opening of HZMB. By collecting 300 survey responses from 5 majors ferry terminals in Hong Kong,

278 Macau and Zhuhai, it is shown that the average time people spend on a PRD trip (self-reported) is

279 around 3.3 hours, and the total money spend on this trip is around HKD $344. Clearly, the current 280 ferry journey between Hong Kong and Macau is only part of people’s trip chain, because above time

281 and money spending are both more than a typical “HK-Macau” ferry trip.

282 In the survey, the 300 respondents also show their expectation on time saving from HZMB (vs.

283 Ferry) is around 1~1.5 hour; correspondingly, the predicted money to save is roughly from HKD

284 $41~100 (Fig. 11). The implication is – for people expecting to save HKD $100 on using HZMB, if the

285 general cost (e.g., toll) of HZMB is more than HKD $69, they would be likely to still choose ferry,

286 considering a typical ferry ticket of HKD $169.

287

288 (a) Expcted time saving (b) Expected money saving

289 Fig. 11 Expected Time and Money Saving after HZMB (vs. Ferry)

290

291 In this research, the 300 respondents were also asked their preference in reducing total travelling

292 time or money (if can only choose one) under different time/money saving scenarios. Such question is

293 designed to test the price sensitivity versus time sensitivity. As shown in Fig. 12, a trend can be

294 observed – the more time/money saving (as % to total trip), people more likely to choose time, instead

295 of money. For example, the HZMB will be more likely absorb the “HK-Macau Commuters”, instead of

296 people traveling from Mainland China, since the time saving of HZMB would be a larger % for those

297 HK-Macau Commuters.

298

299 Fig. 12 People’s choice on 30%, 50%, 70% “time vs. money” saving scenarios

300 4.3 LRT maximization

301 In addition to HZMB as infrastructure for external trip, DSAT’s Trip Survey also explored people’s

302 travel pattern change after the LRT (internal trip). Results shows, in terms of internal transportation,

303 the “walk group” is main customer for LRT. That is, LRT will attract more “walking” people (50%) than

304 bus or casino shuttle riders.

305 As previously discussed, the LRT is introduced as a backbone transportation system in Macau.

306 The existing taxies, public buses, casino shuttles would all become supplement with the LRT. Casino

307 shuttles, especially, were considered as potential issues by local government, although this unique

308 system does/did take critical function in transportation. Regarding to casino shuttle, Macau DSAT’s

309 policy direction is to regulate the service by setting fixed parking locations, increasing the parking

310 turnover, and making Express Line along the less busy corridor. After the completion of LRT, the

311 casino shuttle might be further limited.

312 In a study about “Optimization of Transportation at Gongbei Border Gate”, a “LRT Maximization”

313 scenario is modeled (Fig. 13). In that scenario, the casino shuttles are generally not allowed to pick up

314 passengers in border gates. Instead, casino shuttle serves as feeder bus for LRT and pick up people

315 from every LRT stations. By doing so, the forecasted market share (in 2020) of casino shuttle at

316 Gongbei Border Gate will be reduced from 10% to 4%; with LRT growing from 18% to 38%.

317

318 Fig. 13. LRT maximization scenario at Gongbei border gate (Macau) 319 5 Conclusions

320 This paper first presented an overview of planning concepts in PRD region, deep understanding of

321 regional transportation blueprint, and current status of major infrastructure building. To understand the

322 influences of those new builds, this paper analyzed the results of Macau DSAT’s travel behavior

323 survey. As results show, the “competition effect” between new and existing travel mode is not obvious.

324 For example, the ferry will still be a prevailed mode even after the opening to HZMB. The Macau LRT

325 will not affect the bus and casino shuttle, but make the “walking people” as its main customers. Only

326 after the “LRT Maximization” scenario, the LRT would start to pick up the right mode share as a

327 “planned” backbone transportation system. From this study, it is very obvious that – “behavior change

328 always takes time”. The infrastructure development may not even guarantee the behavior change.

329 Taking Macau as example, its visitors reached a peak of 30.7 million/year in 2015; which is close to

330 the total population of Malaysia. With the current policy of promoting mass market and non-gaming,

331 the annual visitors should be increased in the future – 50 million/year is the number being discussed;

332 which is close to total population of whole PRD region. We all believe that a city cannot have infinite

333 tourism carrying capacity (TCC). However, using the infrastructure development to improve the TCC

334 may have two issues. First, the building of infrastructure can very easily be delayed, and will

335 undermine its original functionality (e.g., improving TCC). Second, even the infrastructure is

336 completed on time, people’s behavior won’t easily change as we planned.

337 However, people’s travel response can change after realizing more policy detail of those new

338 builds. Thus, the survey and modeling should be refined/calibrated after the finalization of some

339 important detail (e.g., vehicle control on HZMB, Fare of LRT).

340 One important things to be noted, in discussion of cross-regional transportation in PRD area, the

341 size (land, population) difference among China, Hong Kong, and Macau make it very hard to achieve

342 one universal planning paradigm. The better we understand specific concern (including: policy, current

343 behavior, etc.) of various regions in PRD, the more precisely we can foresee the implication (or impact)

344 of future mega infrastructure.

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