26/4/2016

Inclusive Resilience - Learnings after

Knowledge Partnership Day: From Recovery to Resilience GFDRR, IFC, Washington, April 26, 2016

Dipl.-Kfm. Matthias Niggel | Senior Advisor GIZ [email protected]

Page 1

(In Million EUR)

Environment and Rural Development (EnRD) Program 24 Commission throughout Program Lifetime Yolanda (3.00) 22 Phase 1: 10.05 M Phase 2: 23.53 M = 23.53 20 DIPECHO 8 (.80) + EEF (.20) = 20.53 DW Integration (1.27) = 19.53 18 Biodiv Reserve 2 (3.00) + 16 DIPECHO (0.41) = 18.26

14 RD/ LE (1.3) = 14.86 12 EFOS (2.6) = 13.56

10 BioDiv Reserve 1 (3.00) = 10.95 8 6 Original Allocation = 7.95 4 2 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Page 2

1 26/4/2016

A Typical Watershed-Ecosystem Landscape in the Philippines

Covers the total area of a ridge to reef landscape inclusive of all types of lands of the public domain, agricultural lands, private lands, foreshore areas.

Page 3

POLICY ENVIRONMENT

DENR (FMB, BMB, MGB, NAMRIA,EMB) NCIP DOT NCCA NDRRMC-OCD DOST (PHIVOLCS, PAGASA) CCC DILG (for LGU territorial jurisdiction)

DA (BSWM) DAR DA (BFAR)

Page 4

2 26/4/2016

HLURB COOPERATION LANDSCAPE FOR CLUP 2013-2014 with National Technical Agencies

FORESTRY CODE MINING ACT NIPAS ACT ECOLOGICAL SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT ACT CLIMATE CHANGE ACT DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND MANAGEMENT ACT IPRA LAW NATIONAL CULTURAL HERITAGE ACT LOCAL GOVERNMENT CODE UDHA LAW WATER CODE

AFMA

CARPER FISHERIES CODE

26/04/2016 Page 5

CLUP Guidebook Series 2013-2014

Page 6

3 26/4/2016

Evolving Adaptation & Resilience Program..

29.02 M (12.2015) +14.1 M (2016/17(?))

Climate change, forests and REDD+ 26.04.2016 Page 7

Building Back Better (BBB) Learnings after Typhoon Haiyan

.

Graphic by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Page 8

4 26/4/2016

Additional 3 Mio Euros Technical Assistance 2014-2015 Support to OPARR, Region 8, 6 Provinces, 25 LGUs

• Basey • La Paz • Marabut • Mayorga • • MacArthur • City • Javier • • • Palo • Dulag • Pastrana • • • • • Lau-an • Tolosa • • Tanauan • Valderrama • Julita • Belison • 26/04/2016 Page 9

1. Rehab Planning

Page 10

5 26/4/2016

Linked to.. Provincial Framework Critical Watersheds

25-27 March 2013 Donors Forum – Region 8 Page 11

Linked to.. Municipal Development Concept

Page 12

25-27 March 2013

25-27 March 2013 6 26/4/2016

LRRP Presentation: (April 26), Tacloban City (May 10), LRRP Approval President: Leyte, Tacloban City (July 25), CRRP Approval President: (Oct 29, 2015)

“The Rehabilitation Plan became the “Out of the programs identified, ”(..) Different funding arrived bases of support of other donors like around 80-90% in the PPAs were including DILG-Ray 1 plus other UNICEF, UNDP.” funded for recovery.” projects (…).” Engr. Rosalinda A. Alsonado, Mun. Engineer, Javier Fortunato B. Serafina, MPDC, Mc Arthur Cecilio Marilla, MPDC, Tolosa Page 13

2. Getting Back to the Feet

From Rice Farming To (Rice) SEED Growing

418t Certified rice seeds 20 t certified rice seeds 5,000 Vegetable Seed Packs (Equivalent to 800t certified 625t Urea fertilizer rice seeds!) 2,300t Organic fertilizer 54 Beneficiaries/Recipients 12,179 Beneficiaries 13 Municipalities 21 Municipalities 3 Seed Grower Associations 25 Irrigators Associations

Page 14

7 26/4/2016

Selecting beneficiaries and sites Selecting beneficiaries versus sites From Beneficiary.. To Producer.. From Choice.. To System.. From Fragmentation.. To Scale & Visibility.. From Uninsured.. To Insured.. From Standardized.. To Customized..

Page 15

2. Building Back Better – Where? 2.1 From hazard to suitability mapping

Page 16

8 26/4/2016

RISK-INFORMED LAND USE PLANNING PROCESS

A Case Study of Abuyog, Leyte, , Philippines

Page 17

From (Multi-) Hazard Map

PHIVOLCS map. Slightly modified by the City of Tacloban in 2012

Tsunami Hazard Map of Southern Tacloban by GIZ

Susceptibility maps These maps show whether a hazard can have an impact on a certain location and how strong this impact may be, but there is no temporal element in the map. It shows neither probabilities nor The “classical” hazard map return periods. This means a susceptibility map This map integrates into the gives no information on the likelihood of an map how likely it is that a extreme natural event happening. hazard strikes. Page 18

9 26/4/2016

To Risk Map

Multi Hazard Risk Map for a part of Leyte

Risk Maps Most risk maps are based on land use. This means the vulnerabilities of different forms of land use (e.g. settlements, forest, crops) are applied depending on a land use map. The resulting risk map shows the expected statistical annual damage per area unit (Pesos/year/ha).Page 19

To Suitability Mapping

Multi hazard risk for concrete/brick buildings [expected annual damage in %]

Suitability Maps Suitability maps show the risk for one specific type of land use for a complete area. This enables a planner to assess the hypothetical risk, whether or not the area is already utilized for the planned type of land use. Page 20

10 26/4/2016

Because of risk-informed CLUPS, the LGU, explore the potential of their territorial jurisdiction with long term disaster resiliency perspective Open the mind set of local stakeholders to build LGU alliances based watershed configuration Page 21

What place is suitable for buildings?

Multi hazard, but only one, simple map for normal residential buildings! Page 22

11 26/4/2016

4/26/2016 Page 23

From administrative units to eco-systems From several eco-systems within one municipality to several sevela municipalities within one eco-system. From municipalities to eco- systems as planning unit.

From Flood Early Warning From fragmented EW to integrated EW From technical EW to multi-sensorial EW

saving lives and empowering people.

12 26/4/2016

PAGASA provided technical assistance to LGUs in organizing and PAGASA Hydro-met Division is responsible strengthening the for the national level forecasting and NetFLOWS monitoring hydro-met related hazards

The entire cooperation mechanism helps NDRRMC in the strengthening of PAGASA Regional offices are responsible for the end to end EWS in the Philippines management, forecasting and monitoring of major river basin (with drainage capacity more than 1,000 sq.km.) in the Philippines

Complement the gap of PAGASA in small river basins

Flood monitoring for small watersheds/river basin was not given priority by PAGASA due to resources and manpower constraints. Extend PAGASA warning Provincial and Municipal/City LGUs (have to) systems to more LGUs take responsibility. (strengthen inclusiveness)

Support to PAGASA in upscaling School Hydrological SHINe compliment LGUs in flood information Network as school based risk informed forecasting once technical problem information for weather and flood forecasting in LFEWS occurs

LFEWS Cooperation Mechanism

Efficient early warning system will reach to the LGUs thru DILG, NetFLOWS/ LFEWS in real time

National Flood Forecasting University of Potsdam to provide technical assistance to PAGASA to link Flood warning information from LFEWS to doppler weather radars of PAGASA and vice versa PAGASA Regional Monitoring for Major Watershed/River Basin

Provincial/Municipal/City Monitoring for Small watershed/River Basin LFEWS Opportunity to enhance the end to end localized early warning system Community Resiliency/Disaster prepared country

13 26/4/2016

• Enhance the disaster awareness of the school’s populace through its regular hydrological monitoring. • Provide evidenced based weather information system as basis for suspension of classes during occurrence of weather disturbances not classified as tropical storm (where official suspension of classes was raised) • Develop long-term strategies not only on a school level but national as well based on the data and information collected  The essence of SHINe is disaster from the network of observations by the SHINe school awareness through the school’s groups. hydrological monitoring activities. It empowers the school and community to protect, prepare and make them resilient against the disastrous effects of floods.

“Strengthening the Disaster Resilience of Small and Medium Enterprises”

“SME Development and Disaster Resilience in the Philippines

February 19, 2016 (Friday), 09:30 – 16:30

Sage Function Room, City Garden Grand Hotel 8008 Makati Ave. cor. Kalayaan Ave., Makati City

14 26/4/2016

To flood management and mitigation Results of Binahaan Flood Modeling Study and Flood Mitigation Options 7th TWG Meeting 15 April 2016

Engr. Omar P. Jayag VSU Phil-LiDAR 1

Study Site and Boundary Conditions Hydrologic Model

Hydraulic Model Area = 25,794 ha

30

15 26/4/2016

Validated Hydraulic Model

31

Typhoon Senyang Dec 2014

• Max flood extent

32

16 26/4/2016

Typhoon Senyang Dec 2014

• Max flood extent • Dredging of San Joaquin River

33

Typhoon Senyang Dec 2014

• Max flood extent • Dredging of San Joaquin River • 2m elevated dike

34

17 26/4/2016

2. Building Back Better – Where? 2.2 From ‘have to’ to ‘want to’

Page 35

Regulatory Framework Promotion of Pro-poor Insurance Markets in Asia (RFPI Asia)

Building Resilience . Analysis of Microinsurance & NatCat . Findings from MSMEs insurance needs assessment . Implementation of a diagnostic toolkit for insurance against NatCat for SMEs

26/04/2016 Page 36

18 26/4/2016

Claims paid after the typhoon

www.microinsurancenetwork.org

Page 37

3. Rebuilding – How? 3.1 Infrastructure

Page 38

19 26/4/2016

DILG RAY 1 Up to 3 municipality structures Php 2.012 billion

DILG RAY 3 Up to 3 structures per (!) Php 2 billion

KfW, Worldbank, DepEd, JICA, Humedia,……………

Prepared by Architect Ramon L. Abiera ,uap

Municipality Income Classificati on SamarProvince 1st Class th 1-5 class Municipalities: Basey (51 brgys) 1st 1 Position: City/Municipality Engineer Marabut (24 brgys) 5th Multiple heads/many assignments Leyte Province 1st Class Few (or no staff) Abuyog (63 brgys) 1st nd 1-2 construction projects per year Alangalang (54 brgys) 2 Albuera (16 brgys) 3rd (77 brgys) 4th Barugo (37 brgys) 4th Bato (32 brgys) 4th City (92 brgys) Burauen (77 brgys) 1st 4th 4th 2nd

Prepared by Architect Ramon L. Abiera ,uap

20 26/4/2016

Barangay Hall Template

Fom Overwhelmed > To Handheld

BARANGAY HALL WITH RESILIENT AND SUSTAINABLE FEATURES 2 storey with future mezzanine ,size flexible,

Prepared by Architect Ramon L. Abiera ,uap

Barangay Hall Template

Prepared by Architect Ramon L. Abiera ,uap

21 26/4/2016

26/04/2016 Page 43

CIVIC /EVACUATION CENTER

Prepared by Architect Ramon L. Abiera ,uap Page 44

22 26/4/2016

CIVIC /EVACUATION CENTER

Prepared by Architect Ramon L. Abiera ,uap Page 45

Barangay Multi purpose civic center Template BARANGAY MULTI PURPOSE CIVIC CENTER(features-character same with barangay hall,2 storey with future mezzanine ,size flexible,WITH RESILIENT AND SUSTAINABLE FEATURES

Prepared by Architect Ramon L. Abiera ,uap

23 26/4/2016

MUNICIPAL Hall

Resilient multi story Municipal Hall

Prepared by Architect Ramon L. Abiera ,uap

CIVIC /EVACUATION CENTER

Prepared by Architect Ramon L. Abiera ,uap

24 26/4/2016

Prepared by Architect Ramon L. Abiera ,uap Page 49

From vulnerable To resilient

Prepared by Architect Ramon L. Abiera ,uap

25 26/4/2016

3. Rebuilding – How? 3.2 Data management

Page 51

ESTABLISHMENT OF A GIS WEBMAP SERVER AT THE VISAYAS STATE UNIVERSITY

From Laptop To Server From Local To Crowd From Lay(wo)man To Professional From Fragment To Aggregate

26 26/4/2016

BACKGROUND INFORMATION Recover and resilience = multi-stakeholder responsibility coordination >> For all cooperation and coordination process accessible, reliable, fast information is extra important. Data compatibility extra important for vertical coordination and cooperation processes (i.e. with national government)! Data management must be safe (back-up), Efficient (data is fast converted into information, available fast and reliable) and effectivity (supports cooperation (compatible = can be aggregated), updated..)

LRRP Presentation: Leyte (April “Big help, if it were not for the “We are very thankful (..) 26), Tacloban City (May 10), LRRP approved rehabilitation plan, the We have hoped that GIZ Approval President: Leyte, identified LGU projects for was able to help more rehabilitation will not be Tacloban City (July 25), CRRP LGUs as Capoocan for incorporated / highlighted for example was not able to Approval President: (Oct 29, 2015) funding by the Provincial formulate a rehabilitation Government and the National. “The maps generated before the plan as no other agency Because of it, funds are pouring in.” Yolanda disaster with the help of provided support in EnRD served as reference for the Ms. Meldy B. Adel, MPDC , MDRRMO, Basey rehabilitation planning at Municipality in COORDINATING that time.” “For me it was like a can opener, rehabilitation efforts of other NGOs Judith M. Borrel, MPDC, Barugo because a lot of funds were and CSOs.” poured in after the Rehabilitation “We are satisfied with the quality Verwena C. Bibar, Executive Assistant to the Plan was formulated.” Mayor, Alang-Alang of rehabilitation plan (..). We are Joeban R. Paza, MDRRMO, Burauen aware that it is not a perfect plan but EnRD helped us meet the “The EnRD supported hazard “The LGU was able to gather demands and urgency of the maps have also been useful to around 23M grant of Farm to situation at that time especially various development partners Market Road (with 2M that all of us were in distress and such as World Vision, UNICEF, counterpart); all because of were demanded by various KALAHI, OPAR, DENR-MGB in their the Rehabilitation Plan that GIZ agencies to perform our rehabilitation efforts.” has supported.” functions” Antonio L. Varona, MPDC, Alang-Alang Adleo C. Go, MPDC, Dagami Roger S. Ramos, MPDC, MEO, Tabon- Tabon

27 26/4/2016

Collaborative efforts in the Binahaan Watershed..

“The maps generated before the Yolanda disaster with the help of EnRD served as reference for the Municipality in COORDINATING rehabilitation efforts of other NGOs and CSOs.” Verwena C. Bibar, Executive Assistant to the Mayor, Alang-Alang Project: Philippines: IWRM Tools, Guidelines; and Capacity Building Training on Application of the IWRM Planning guidelines for the Binahaan Basin Organizers: UNESCO-IHE, Deltares, DPWH-IWRMCT, UP-NHRC Date: 1 December to 4rd December, 2015 Venue: To be decided (Palo Leyte) Details on the Program and Contents (Tentative) Resource Date/Day Time Table Topic/Activity personshttp://gisserver.vsu.edu.ph To be Tuesday, 1st Welcome and Opening decided/Roy/D December, 08:30-09:00 Remarks olores, please fill 2015) in the names

MAIN PAGE OF VISAYAS STATE UNIVERSITY WEBGIS

The main page allow guest or public user to view the map in which is publicly shown by the map or data owner.

http://gisserver.vsu.edu.ph

28 26/4/2016

WORKSHOP OUTPUT (FEBRUARY 28-29, 2015)

WHAT DATA/INFORMATION DO YOU WANT TO GET FROM THE WEB SERVER?

- High resolution maps -Online-courses - Map analysis / data analysis -“Forum” section - LIDAR remote sensing data -Good practices - LIDAR maps and data  watersheds -Maps should be HLURB compliant - Hazard maps -Muncipal profile of every LGU - Cadastral maps -Weather data  localized, ??? - Existing and proposed infra facilities -Climate data (past & projection) - Academic researches, -Accurate weather update -Journals on LAM (local, international) (intelligible to all)-Flood, Storm -Flood, Storm surge, Tsunami modelling surge, Tsunami modelling -Accessibility / availability to appstore / -Accessibility / availability to android appstore / android

WORKSHOP OUTPUT (FEBRUARY 28-29, 2015)

2. IF THE LGUs ARE TO SHARE DATA & INFORMATION, WHAT ARE THESE DATA?

-Spatial framework -Agriculture & fishery data -Strategy & investment thrusts -CBMS / LGPMS data (socio-economic -Potential (existing & proposed) data) -Tourism development -LGU proposals (project proposals) -Business investment sites -Pool of expert -Real estate development -Agriculture & fishery data -Development plans -CBMS / LGPMS data (socioeconomic -LGU proposals (project proposals) data) -Pool of expert

29 26/4/2016

WORKSHOP OUTPUT (FEBRUARY 28-29, 2015)

3. WHAT ARE THE PRE-CONDITIONS IN SHARING THESE DATA/INFORMATION?

- Account limit per LGU - Individualized account - Equal sharing of income - Data security - Copyright file system - Training webserver management

3. Rebuilding – How? 3.3 Insurance Protection

From insuring the past.. To insuring the future..! What we have accumulated What does it take to start in the past all-over again

Page 60

30 26/4/2016

Regulatory Framework Promotion of Pro-poor Insurance Markets in Asia (RFPI Asia)

Building Resilience . Analysis of Microinsurance & NatCat . Findings from MSMEs insurance needs assessment . Implementation of a diagnostic toolkit for insurance against NatCat for SMEs

26/04/2016 Page 61

Microinsurance is growing!

Insurance Coverage 2014

Traditional Insurance 28% Microinsur ance 62%

Source: Insurance Commission Philippines

Page 62

31 26/4/2016

Claims paid after the typhoon

www.microinsurancenetwork.org

Page 63

3. Rebuilding – How? 3.4 Economic Life (and financing)

Page 64

32 26/4/2016

Philippine Administrative System 2 sources (!) of public funding!

Public funds source 1: National Government (GA) Administered by national government (by line agencies)

Allocated based on regional planning > Total NLA > LGUs

Public funds 2: Local Government (IRA) Administered by LGUs (Province, Cities, Municipalities Allocated based on local planning

Page 65

5TH Regional Business Conference 31 July 2015 CCE Hall, VSU, Baybay City

33 26/4/2016

Memorandum Order No. 79, s. 2015 Institutional Framework NEDA Secretary as Vice Chair of NDRRMC*

NDRRMC Chair: DND

Rehab and Mitigation Preparedness Response Recovery Vice Chair: DOST Vice Chair: DILG Vice Chair: DSWD Vice Chair: NEDA

*National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council

Formulation of the EASTERN VISAYAS RESULTS FRAMEWORK 1 FOR RECOVERY & REHABILITATION

34 26/4/2016

NEDA VIII, RDC VIII & Yolanda Rehabilitation

NEDA VIII, RDC VIII & Yolanda Rehabilitation

35 26/4/2016

GIZ EnRD + NEDA VIII 1 2

Workshop Schedule 12-13 May 2015 Provinces of Eastern , Samar and ; 21-22 May 2015 , Leyte and 28-29 May 2015 Eastern Visayas Region

I. Integrate IEM approach & Hazard WAY FORWARD mapping in Regional (and Provincial) Physical Framework Plan

I. Alignment of Provincial (, Local) and Regional Socio-Economic Planning (the REGIONAL PHYSICAL higher an FRAMEWORK PLAN (arithmetic) 2015 – 2045 aggregate of the other II. Alignment national to local government spending III. Alignment public to private sector spending  Leverage  Economies of scale!

36 26/4/2016

INCLUSIVE GROWTH WORKSHOP TIMELINE

2014 Sept 2014 Sept 2014 Oct 27 2014 Nov 27 2014 Dec 18 29

• PCCI-EV • Submitted PCCI- • Endorsement by • RDC VIII SECCOM • Consultative Resolution on EV Resolution RDC VIII of Special Meeting with “INCLUSIVE to newly PCCI-EV Consultative NEDA DG Sec. Meeting Balisacan GROWTH appointed RDC Resolution on • Dec 6 meeting STRATEGY VIII Chair Gov. the conduct of cancelled due to FORMULATION Dominic Petilla the “INCLUSIVE Super typhoon WORKSHOP” GROWTH Ruby approved in STRATEGY • NEDA DG mass motion by WORKSHOP” authorized local chamber engagement of presidents PIDS

INCLUSIVE GROWTH WORKSHOP TIMELINE

2015 Feb 2015 Jan 8 2015 Feb 20 2015 Mar 12 2015 Mar 25 17-18

• RDC VIII • Consultative • Consultative • Consultative • Consultative Consultative Meeting with Meeting with Meeting and Meeting with Meeting with SUC’s in Region Northern and briefing of all selected MPDO’s, SECCOM Chairs, 8, PSA and their Members of the MAO’s, PPDO’s from PSR’s, RDC role in Governors House of Region 8 Regular supporting Representatives Members and Inclusive from Region 8 PCCI-EV Growth

37 26/4/2016

INCLUSIVE GROWTH WORKSHOP TIMELINE

2015 May 2015 May 2015 May 2015 Jun 2015 Jul 12-13 22-23 28-29 15/17 2-3 • Samar Island • Biliran and • Regional • Consultation • Consultation Provinces Leyte Island Consolidation Meeting with Meeting with DBM, Workshop Provinces Workshop DBM, DILG, DILG, NEDA and ASSURE Workshop NEDA on integration & institutionalization

INCLUSIVE GROWTH WORKSHOP TIMELINE 2015 2015 2015 Jul 8-10 2015 Jul/Aug Aug/Sept Aug/Sept

• Southern Leyte • Engagement of • Draft Investment • Draft Policy Action Planning Ateneo de Brief Template Recommendation Workshop and initial set of s for RDC Sectoral University School projects/ Committees of Social Sciences programs per Endorsement and ASSURE on province with further DTI-BOI, NEDA framework PPDO’s & local enhancements chambers

38 26/4/2016

INCLUSIVE GROWTH WORKSHOP TIMELINE

2016 and 2015 Sept 2015 Oct/Nov 2015 Nov 2015 Dec beyond

• Submit Formal • PCCI National • Actual Pilot Use • Integrate with • Review & Policy Endorsement for Tacloban proposed IEM Evaluation Recommendation during PBC Economic Approach • Improvements to DBM, DILG, Development Workshop & Revisions NEDA & DOF- Framework • For use during BLGF (TEDF) planning actual planning of with next PDP’s / RDP development partners for 2017 onwards • Propose • Fine tuning

METHODOLOGY FOR PRIORITIZATION OF ECONOMIC PPA’S BASED ON INCLUSIVE GROWTH I. WHAT IS HINDERING INCLUSIVE GROWTH? PUSHING FACTOR HINDERING FACTORS POSSIBLE SOLUTION What current factors in my area What are the challenges/problems (per hindering factor) promotes inclusive growth? the hinder inclusive growth?

II. CREATE AN OPERATIONAL ACTION AGENDA

ACTION AGENDA STRATEGIC INDICATORS ACTION TO RESPONSIBLE REQUIREMENTS/ TIMELINES (KRAs) OBJECTIVES (quota/measures) TAKE/ACTIVITIES PARTNERS REMARKS

39 26/4/2016

III. PRIORITIZING ACTIVITIES = INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY

CRITERIA FOR SELECTION PRIORITIZATION STRATEGIC OPTIONS

SECTORS COMPETITIVE CONTRIBUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE SPECIFIC TYPE OF ACTIVITY ADVANTAGE ECONOMIC GROWTH RESILIENCY REQUIREMENTS

AGRICULTURE / Why do people buy from How much will household FISHERIES me instead of my income/month increase? (Low/Medium/High) • INTENSIFY? competitors? (Low/Medium/High) • EXPAND? What makes me different • DIVERSIFY? and better? INDUSTRY / MANUFACTURING

TRADE & SERVICES

WAYS FORWARD • ACTION PLAN: PILOT USE of Inclusive Growth Framework In Actual Planning For Tacloban North Economic Development Framework (TEDF) Supported by a multi-stakeholder core planning team: UNDP, OXFAM, GIZ, Chamber and other INGO’s/Development Partners PILOT INTEGRATION of TEDF with new CLUP (based on the new Enhanced CLUP Guidelines) PILOT INTEGRATION with Integrated Ecosystems Management Approach Workshop

40 26/4/2016

ILLUSTRATING, MODERATING, INTEGRATING the INTERPLAY IN A SPATIAL DIMENSION

Page 81

Thank you

Page 82

41