Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen and Diana Liverman Frontmatter More Information

Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-19836-3 - Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen and Diana Liverman Frontmatter More information

CLIMATE CHANGE: GLOBAL RISKS, CHALLENGES AND DECISIONS

This book provides an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to climate change, from the fundamental science of the climate system to the approaches and actions needed to deal with the challenge. This broad synthesis is unique in that the topics dealt with range from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and cultural issues constraining the societal response to climate change are also discussed. As scientific evidence and understanding accumulate, it becomes ever more convincing that the global climate system is moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which human civilisations have developed and thrived. The good news is that many of the tools and approaches necessary to deal effectively with climate change already exist. The challenge of the twenty-first century is to integrate these instruments into the development trajectories of contemporary societies. This book provides a handbook for those who want to understand and contribute to meeting this challenge. The book covers a very wide range of disciplines: core biophysical sciences involved with climate change (geosciences, atmospheric sciences, ocean sciences, and ecology/ biology) as well as economics, political science, health sciences, institutions and governance, sociology, ethics and philosophy, and engineering. As such it will be invaluable for a wide range of researchers and professionals wanting a cutting-edge synthesis of climate change issues, and for advanced student courses on climate change. The book was written by a team of authors led by Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen and Diana Liverman. Additional authors are Terry Barker, Frank Jotzo, Daniel M. Kammen, Rik Leemans, Timothy M. Lenton, Mohan Monasinghe, Balgis Osman-Elasha, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Nicholas Stern, Coleen Vogel and Ole Wæver.

katherine richardson is Vice-Dean at the Faculty of Science at the University of Copenhagen and Professor in Biological Oceanography. She has been active both as a member and chairman of several national and international research committees and advisory bodies including the scientific steering committee of the International Geosphere- Biosphere Programme. She is Chairman of the Danish Government’s Commission on Climate Change Policy. She was also chairman of the Scientific Steering Committee for the international scientific congress Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions. The focus of her research is carbon cycling in the ocean and how changing climate con- ditions influence biodiversity in the ocean and the ability of biological processes in the

ocean to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Richardson has authored over 75 scientific

© in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-19836-3 - Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen and Diana Liverman Frontmatter More information

publications and a large number of popular scientific works, including Our Threatened Oceans (2009, Haus Publishing; with Stefan Rahmstorf).

will steffen is Executive Director of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University (ANU), Canberra, and is also Science Adviser, Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Australian Government. From 1998 to mid-2004, he served as Executive Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, based in Stockholm, Sweden. His research interests span a broad range within the fields of climate change and Earth System science, with an emphasis on incorporation of human processes in Earth System modelling and analysis; and on sustainability, climate change and the Earth System. Both Will Steffen and Katherine Richardson were authors on the book Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure (2004, Springer). diana liverman holds appointments at the University of Arizona (where she directs the Institute of the Environment) and Oxford University (working with the Environmental Change Institute). Her main research interests include climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, and climate policy, especially the role of the developing world and non-state actors in both mitigation and adaptation. She has written numerous books and articles on the environment, climate and development and advised government, business and NGOs on climate issues. Currently she chairs the scientific advisory committee of the International Global Environmental Change and Food Security Program, co-chairs the US National Academies panel on Informing America’s Climate Choices and edits the Annual Review of Environment and Resources.

CLIMATE CHANGE: GLOBAL RISKS, CHALLENGES AND DECISIONS

KATHERINE RICHARDSON University of Copenhagen, Denmark

WILL STEFFEN Australian National University, Canberra

DIANA LIVERMAN University of Arizona and University of Oxford

and Terry Barker, Frank Jotzo, Daniel M. Kammen, Rik Leemans, Timothy M. Lenton, Mohan Munasinghe, Balgis Osman-Elasha, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Nicholas Stern, Coleen Vogel, Ole Wæver With contributions to chapters by

Myles R. Allen, Giles Atkinson, Marilyn Averill, Jonathan Bamber, Paul M. Barker, Jørgen Bendtsen, Pam Berry, Roberto Bertollini, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Edward Blandford, Sarah G. Bonham, Niel H. A. Bowerman, Maxwell Boykoff, Ronald D. Brunner, Gregory Buckman, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Josep G. Canadell, Benjamin Cashore, Lynda Chambers, Nakul Chettrin, John A. Church, Kerry H. Cook, Paul Crutzen, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Peter Dann, Simon Dietz, Catia M. Domingues, Harry Dowsett, S. S. Drijfhout, Jeff R. Dunn, Hallie Eakin, Thomas Elmqvist, Matthew England, Polly Ericksen, Kirsten Findell, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Mette Kildegaard Graversen, Nicolas Gruber, Stephen J. Hall, Christian Pilegaard Hansen, Alan M. Haywood, Kieran P. Helm, Jennifer Helgeson, Cameron Hepburn, Daniel J. Hill, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Larry Horowitz, John Ingram, Arne Jacobson, Chris D. Jones, Peter Kanowski, Sylvia I. Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Lance Kim, Brigitte Knopf, Niels Elers Koch, Katrine Krogh Andersen, Paul Leadly, Hiram Levy II, Valerie N. Livina, Jason Lowe, Jens Friis Lund, Daniel J. Lunt, Amanda H. Lynch, Ariel Macaspac Penetrante, Omar Masera, Constance Mcdermott, Warwick J. McKibbin, Anthony J. McMichael, Anders Melin, Kevin J. Noone, Jørgen E. Olesen, Jisung Park, Donald Perovich, Per F. Peterson, Jonathan Pickering, Stefan Rahmstorf, V. Ramaswamy, Michael R. Raupach, Leanne Renwick, Johan Rockström, Dominic Roser, Minik Rosing, Håkon Sælen, Ulrich Salzmann, Marko Scholze, Thomas Schneider Von Deimling, M. Daniel Schwarzkopf, Frances Seymour, Eklabya Sharma, Drew Shindell, Pete Smith, David A. Stainforth, Konrad Steffen, Martin Stendel, Hanne Strager, Carol Turley, Chris Turney, Paul J. Valdes, S. L. Weber, Neil J. White, Susan E. Wijffels, Mark Williams, Peter J. Wood, Jan Zalasiewicz, Robert J. Zomer

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First published 2011

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Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication data Richardson, Katherine, 1954- Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions / Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen, Diana Liverman; additional authors, Terry Barker [and ten others]; with contributions to chapters by Myles R. Allen [and many others]. p. cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-521-19836-3 1. Climatic changes. 2. Climatic changes – Government policy. I. Title. QC903.R48 2011 363.738´74–dc22 2010042731

ISBN 978-0-521-19836-3 Hardback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

To the memory of climate scientist Steve Schneider (1945–2010), a committed climate change communicator and important mentor to many whose work is represented in this book.

Contents

Writing team page ix Foreword xv Preface xvii List of acronyms and abbreviations xix Part I Climatic trends 1 Identifying, monitoring and predicting change in the climate system 3 2 The oceans and the climate system 30 3 Sea-level rise and ice-sheet dynamics 50 4 Carbon cycle trends and vulnerabilities 75 Part II Defining ‘dangerous climate change’ 5 The impact of climate change on human societies 101 6 Impacts of climate change on the biotic fabric of the planet 134 7 Tipping elements: jokers in the pack 163 8 Linking science and action: targets, timetables and emission budgets 202 Part III Equity issues 9 The equity challenge and climate policy: responsibilities, vulnerabilities and inequality in the response to climate change 229 10 A long-term perspective on climate change: values and ethics 260 Part IV Mitigation and adaptation approaches 11 Low-carbon energy technologies as mitigation approaches 281 12 Economic approaches and instruments 317

vii

viii Contents

13 Geopolitics and governance 344 14 Adapting to the unavoidable 388 Part V Meeting the challenge 15 Integrating adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development 415 16 Mobilising the population 451 17 The human–Earth relationship: past, present and future 472 Index 494

Colour plate section between pages 298 and 299.

Writing team

Professor Katherine Richardson (lead author) Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate Faculty of Science University of Copenhagen Tagensvej 16 DK-2200 Copenhagen Denmark

Professor Will Steffen (lead author) ANU Climate Change Institute Coombs Extension The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200 Australia

Professor Diana Liverman (lead author) Institute of the Environment The University of Arizona PO Box 210158b Tucson Arizona 85721 USA and Institute of the Environment Oxford University OXI 3QY UK

x Writing team

Dr Terry Barker Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research Department of Land Economy University of Cambridge 19 Silver Street Cambridge CB3 9EP UK

Dr Frank Jotzo Research Fellow Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies The Australian National University Coombs Building Canberra ACT 0200 Australia

Professor Daniel M. Kammen Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL) University of California, Berkeley 4152 Etcheverry Hall Berkeley, CA 94720–1731 USA

Professor Rik Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis Group Wageningen University Droevendaalsesteeg 4 PO Box 47 6700AA WAGENINGEN The Netherlands

Professor Timothy M. Lenton School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ UK

Professor Mohan Munasinghe Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND) 10/1, De Fonseka Place Colombo 5 Sri Lanka

Writing team xi

Dr Balgis Osman-Elasha Climate Change Unit Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources HCENR – Gamaa Street- Khartoum /Sudan Khartoum, 10488 Sudan

Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) P.O. Box 60 12 03 14412 Potsdam Germany

Professor Nicholas Stern Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines London School of Economics and Political Science Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE UK

Professor Coleen Vogel School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies University of the Witwatersrand 1 Jan Smuts Avenue Private Bag 3 Wits 2050 Johannesburg South Africa

Professor Ole Wæver Center for Advanced Security Theory Department of Political Science University of Copenhagen Øster Farimagsgade 5 1353 Copenhagen K Denmark

Contributors: expert boxes

Myles R. Allen, Oxford University Giles Atkinson, London School of Economics Marilyn Averill, University of Colorado at Boulder Jonathan Bamber, Bristol University Paul M. Barker, CSIRO Jørgen Bendtsen, VitusLab Denmark

xii Writing team

Pam Berry, Oxford University Roberto Bertollini, World Health Organization Nathaniel L. Bindoff, University of Tasmania Edward Blandford, University of California, Berkeley Sarah G. Bonham, Leeds University Niel H. A. Bowerman, Oxford University Maxwell Boykoff, University of Colorado Ronald D. Brunner, University of Colorado Gregory Buckman, Australian National University Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, World Health Organization Josep G. Canadell, CSIRO Benjamin Cashore, Yale University Lynda Chambers, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia Nakul Chettrin, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development John A. Church, CSIRO Kerry H. Cook, University of Texas at Austin Paul Crutzen, Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, University of Copenhagen Peter Dann, Phillip Island Nature Parks, Australia Simon Dietz, London School of Economics Catia M. Domingues, CSIRO Harry Dowsett, U.S. Geological Survey S. S. Drijfhout, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut Jeff R. Dunn, CSIRO Hallie Eakin, Arizona State University Thomas Elmqvist, Stockholm University Matthew England, University of New South Wales Polly Ericksen, Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi Kirsten Findell, NOAA Jean-Pierre Gattuso, l’Observatoire Océanologique de Villefranche-sur-Mer Mette Kildegaard Graversen, Fødevareøkonomisk Institut Nicolas Gruber, ETH Zurich Stephen J. Hall, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research Christian Pilegaard Hansen, Copenhagen University Alan M. Haywood, Leeds University Kieran P. Helm, University of Tasmania Jennifer Helgeson, London School of Economics Cameron Hepburn, Oxford University Daniel J. Hill, British Geological Survey Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Queensland Larry Horowitz, NOAA John Ingram, Oxford University

Writing team xiii

Arne Jacobson, Humboldt State University Chris D. Jones, Met Office UK Peter Kanowski, Australian National University Sylvia I. Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Finland Future Research Centre, Turku School of Economics Lance Kim, University of California, Berkeley Brigitte Knopf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Niels Elers Koch, University of Copenhagen Katrine Krogh Andersen, Danish Meterological Institute Paul Leadly, Université Paris-Sud 11 Hiram Levy II, NOAA Valerie N. Livina, University of East Anglia Jason Lowe, Met Office UK Jens Friis Lund, University of Copenhagen Daniel J. Lunt, Bristol University Amanda H. Lynch, Monash University Ariel Macaspac Penetrante, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Omar Masera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Constance McDermott, Oxford University Warwick J. McKibbin, Australian National University Anthony J. McMichael, Australian National University Anders Melin, Lund University Kevin J. Noone, ITM Stockholms Universitet Jørgen E. Olesen, University of Aarhus Jisung Park, Oxford University Donald Perovich, US Army Corps of Engineers Per F. Peterson, University of California, Berkeley Jonathan Pickering, Australian National University Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research V. Ramaswamy, NOAA Michael R. Raupach, CSIRO Leanne Renwick, Phillip Island Nature Parks Johan Rockström, Stockholm Environment Institute Dominic Roser, University of Zurich Minik Rosing, University of Copenhagen Håkon Sælen, Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research Ulrich Salzmann, British Antarctic Survey Marko Scholze, Bristol University Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research M. Daniel Schwarzkopf, NOAA Frances Seymour, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research Eklabya Sharma, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Drew Shindell, NASA

xiv Writing team

Pete Smith, University of Aberdeen David A. Stainforth, London School of Economics Konrad Steffen, University of Colorado Martin Stendel, Danish Meterological Institute Hanne Strager, University of Copenhagen Carol Turley, Plymouth Marine Laboratory Chris Turney, University of New Southwales Paul J. Valdes, Bristol University S. L. Weber, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut Neil J. White, CSIRO Susan E. Wijffels, CSIRO Mark Williams, University of Leicester Peter J. Wood, Australian National University Jan Zalasiewicz, University of Leicester Robert J. Zomer, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Foreword

An important pinnacle was reached in the journey towards addressing one of the great- est global challenges of our time at the UNFCCC climate change conference (COP15) in Copenhagen in December 2009. For the first time since the climate change agenda left the offices of scientists and envi- ronmentalists, and moved onto the agendas of heads of governments, world leaders on a large scale recognised the need to contain the human-induced global warming to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. On the basis of that recognition, world leaders agreed to take action to meet this challenge. The path to this recognition was not without obstacles; it was a steep climb, but a climb inspired and fuelled by the increasing force of the scientific findings mounting and developing. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its Fourth Assessment Report, which gave a thorough and comprehensive review of the science of climate change. This report played an immensely important role in creating global awareness of the urgency of a global response to climate change. However, scientists produce new results and publish new findings every day. It was thus very timely that the International Alliance of Research Universities (IARU) in March 2009, only nine months before COP15, organised the congress ‘Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions’. A uniquely wide scope of scientific disciplines focusing on climate change was represented at this congress. The discussions emphasised the vast knowledge base available regarding climate change, and provided a forum in which to present and discuss the newest scientific results. The scope of the global challenge clearly requires the combined efforts of scientific disciplines; natural climate science integrated with the social, political and economic sciences in order to be addressed. In many areas, new results presented at the congress and in this book have continued to document trends of climate change, as well as its current and anticipated impacts. The global community must deal effectively with climate change, both through mitigation and adaptation. Fortunately, we already have a large variety of tools at hand to do so. This book provides updated information on the existing tools as well as potential pathways to reach our climate goals, including that of limiting the human-induced increase in global temperature to a maximum of 2 °C.

xvi Foreword

Addressing the climate change challenge is not only an issue for natural scientists, engineers and economists. It is a task that cannot be detached from the geopolitical context of energy and climate security. Contributions on this issue from relevant areas of the social sciences and humanities are a great asset of this book. It is important that we now make our utmost effort to retain climate change issues at the very top of the political agenda. With every year of delayed progress, there is the danger that societies will continue to invest in outdated technologies. This book is more than a testimony of just another congress or climate event. It com- prises an essential resource in explaining the current scientific understanding of climate change. The book is underpinned by an unprecedented breadth of scientific disciplines and expertise and, as such, constitutes a solid source of incentives for politicians and others who wish to develop a thorough understanding of climate change. It conveys the call for humankind to take action.

Lars Løkke Rasmussen Prime Minister of Denmark

Preface

Human activities impact many of the Earth’s natural functions and cycles. Local and regional impacts of human activity on the planet are easily seen, while global impacts are not so immediately obvious. Nevertheless, studies in Earth System science carried out in recent decades have unequivocally demonstrated impacts of human activity that reverber- ate at the global level. This recognition has led to the suggestion that we may have moved out of the geological period referred to as the Holocene – an epoch that covers the past approximately 12 000 years and in which human societies have flourished – and have now entered a new era, where human impacts are changing Earth System functioning. The knowledge that human activities can and do influence planetary functioning implies an obligation to actively moni- tor and manage the relationship between humans and the planet. This paradigm shift in the relationship between humans and the planet actually started with the Montreal Protocol (ratified in 1989), which limits the global emission of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) gases that lead to a reduction in the ozone layer that surrounds the Earth and shields it from dangerous ultraviolet radiation. Dealing with human-induced climate change can be viewed as the next step in this redefinition of the human–Earth relationship. Managing the human activities that lead to climate change is more difficult than regu- lating the emission of CFC gases, as it will require radical changes in the very fabric of most societies: a change in attitude with respect to energy use as well as changes in global society’s primary energy source, use of natural resources, methods of food production and modes of transport. How we as a global society deal with the knowledge that human activities influence the Earth’s climate system can be viewed as a harbinger for our species’ future relationship with the planet. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in four reports, system- atically assessed and presented the evolving scientific understanding of human-induced climate change. Especially the latest of the reports (from 2007) has been instrumental in increasing public and political awareness concerning climate change. Thanks to extensive research activities across the globe, the scientific understanding of climate change has continued to advance since the last IPCC assessment.

xvii

xviii Preface

This book summarises the highlights of this new research and provides an up-to-date overview of the current state of scientific understanding of climate change, its known and projected impacts, and the options we have available for responding to the challenges it presents. While not being a complete report of the proceedings, this book is developed from presentations and discussions that took place at the open scientific congress,CLIMATE CHANGE: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen, 10–12 March 2009, and organised by the International Alliance of Research Universities.1 Although the presentations made at the congress were not peer reviewed, they are some- times used as examples in the book to illustrate more generic points being made. In add- ition to drawing upon contributions to the congress, the book draws upon peer-reviewed papers that have appeared in the scientific literature in recent years and subsequent to the congress. The book has been written by a team of authors led by Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen, and Diana Liverman. Each author has contributed to the sections of the book where he/she has expertise.

1 Australian National University, ETH Zürich, National University of Singapore, Peking University, University of California – Berkeley, University of Cambridge, University of Copenhagen, University of Oxford, The University of Tokyo, Yale University. For further information, please visit http://www.IARUni.org.

Acronyms and abbreviations

ACF autocorrelation function AIDS acquired immunodeficiency syndrome AIM Action Impact Matrix AR4 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report AR5 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report ASE Amundsen Sea Embayment AWG Ad hoc Working Group C carbon CAFE Corporate Average Fuel Economy CCS carbon capture and storage CDM Clean Development Mechanism CDR carbon dioxide removal CER certified emission reduction CFC chlorofluorocarbon CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research

CH4 methane CHP combined heat and power

CO2 carbon dioxide

CO2-e carbon dioxide equivalent COP15 15th Conference of the Parties CRU Climate Research Unit CWC cumulative warming commitment DALY disability-adjusted life-years DFA detrended fluctuation analysis DNA deoxyribonucleic acid EAIS East Antarctic Ice Sheet EBAMM Energy Resources Group Biofuel Meta-Analysis Model EE energy efficiency EEP eastern equatorial Pacific EETS European Emissions Trading System

xix

xx Acronyms and abbreviations

EMIC Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity ENGO environmental non-governmental organisations ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation EPA Environmental Protection Agency ESSP Earth System Science Partnership EU European Union FAO United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization FIT feed-in tariff GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GCM General Circulation Model; in non-technical discussions, often replaced by Global Climate Model GDP gross domestic product GECAFS Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GFC global financial crisis GHG greenhouse gas GIS Greenland Ice Sheet Gl gigalitres Gt gigatonne GWI global warming intensity HIV human immunodeficiency virus HKH Hindu Kush–Himalaya HKHT Hindu Kush–Himalaya–Tibetan HVAC heating, ventilation and cooling IARU International Alliance of Research Universities ICU initial condition uncertainty IMF International Monetary Fund IOD Indian Ocean Dipole IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IR infrared ISA Integrated Sustainability Assessment ISM Indian Summer Monsoon K kelvin

kWe kilowatts of electric power LED light-emitting diode LPJ Lund-Potsdam-Jena (dynamic global vegetation model) MEF Major Economies Forum MT megatonnes MW megawatt

MWe megawatts of electric power NADW North Atlantic deep water NAMA nationally appropriate mitigation action NAO North Atlantic Oscillation

Acronyms and abbreviations xxi

NAPA National Adaptation Programmes of Action NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NBER National Bureau of Economic Research NGO non-governmental organisation

NOx nitrogen oxide NRDC Natural Resources Defense Council OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OEED Office of Economic Employment and Development OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PACE Property Assessed Clean Energy PACJA Pan African Climate Justice Alliance P–E precipitation–evaporation PEAC Pacific ENSO Applications Center PETM Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum p.p.m. parts per million PTC production tax credit R&D research and development RE renewable energy REDD Reducing Emissions From Deforestation and Forest Degradation RPS Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards SAM Southern Annular Mode

SOx sulphur oxide SRM solar radiation management SST sea surface temperature SWNA Southwest North America THC thermohaline circulation UCDP Uppsala Conflict Dataset Program UEA University of East Anglia UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UK United Kingdom USA United States of America VA vulnerability areas VMT vehicle miles travelled WAIS West Antarctic Ice Sheet WAM West African Monsoon WTO World Trade Organization WWF World Wildlife Fund XBT eXpendable BathyThermographs