New Horizons for Energy Efficiency: Major Opportunities to Reach Higher Electricity Savings by 2030
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New Horizons for Energy Efficiency: Major Opportunities to Reach Higher Electricity Savings by 2030 Dan York, Steven Nadel, Ethan Rogers, Rachel Cluett, Sameer Kwatra, Harvey Sachs, Jennifer Amann, and Meegan Kelly September 2015 Report Number U1507 © American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy 529 14th Street NW, Suite 600, Washington, DC 20045 Phone: (202) 507-4000 • Twitter: @ACEEEDC Facebook.com/myACEEE • aceee.org NEW HORIZONS © ACEEE Contents About the Authors ............................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments ..............................................................................................................................iii Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................ v Chapter 1. Overview of Methodology, Energy Savings, Costs, and Opportunities .................. 1 Chapter 2. Residential Appliances: Refrigerators, Clothes Washers, and Dryers .................... 21 Chapter 3. Residential LED Lamp Replacement for Incandescent Lamps ................................ 32 Chapter 4. Real-Time Energy Use Feedback and Behavioral Response .................................... 42 Chapter 5. Smart Residential Thermostats ..................................................................................... 53 Chapter 6. Advanced Residential Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps ...................................... 62 Chapter 7. Heat Pump Water Heaters ............................................................................................ 78 Chapter 8. Residential Retrofits ....................................................................................................... 88 Chapter 9. New Construction Programs Targeted Beyond Current Codes .............................. 96 Chapter 10. Miscellaneous Energy Loads .................................................................................... 107 Chapter 11. Advanced Commercial Lighting Design and Controls ........................................ 118 Chapter 12. Advanced Commercial Rooftop Air-Conditioning Units .................................... 124 Chapter 13. Smart Commercial Buildings .................................................................................... 135 Chapter 14. Comprehensive Commercial Retrofits .................................................................... 145 Chapter 15. Commercial and Industrial Strategic Energy Management ................................. 154 Chapter 16. Energy Performance Labels for Commercial and Industrial Equipment ........... 165 Chapter 17. Smart Manufacturing ................................................................................................. 174 Chapter 18. Conservation Voltage Reduction ............................................................................. 187 Chapter 19. Combined Heat and Power Systems ....................................................................... 199 Chapter 20. The Way Forward ...................................................................................................... 213 Appendix A. Adjustment for Overlap of Energy Savings among Measures .......................... 221 i NEW HORIZONS © ACEEE About the Authors Dan York has more than 20 years of experience in researching, analyzing, and implementing energy efficiency policies and programs. He is widely recognized for his work tracking and analyzing trends and emerging issues in utility-sector energy efficiency programs. He joined ACEEE in 2001. Steven Nadel has served as ACEEE’s executive director since 2001. He has worked in the energy efficiency field for more than 30 years and has over 100 publications. He was a major contributor to national energy legislation passed by Congress in 1987, 1992, 2005, and 2007. His current research interests include utility-sector energy efficiency programs and policies, state and federal energy and climate change policy, and appliance and equipment efficiency standards. He joined ACEEE in 1989. Ethan Rogers joined ACEEE in February 2012 and is responsible for directing the day-to- day activities of the Industry Program. The industry team conducts in-depth analyses of energy use and investments in efficiency by manufacturing, mining, agricultural, and construction facilities and systems, including combined heat and power. Ethan also leads ACEEE’s research and annual conference on intelligent efficiency Rachel Cluett conducts research on residential sector energy efficiency, including labeling and energy use disclosure, efficiency program design, and product standards and labeling. She is a BPI-certified building analyst and envelope professional and a certified HERS rater. She joined ACEEE in November 2012. Sameer Kwatra conducted research on energy efficiency in buildings to inform policy and to advance stakeholder understanding during his 2012–2015 tenure at ACEEE. He now works with the international team at the Natural Resources Defense Council as a climate change and energy policy analyst. Harvey Sachs works on building codes, standards, and market transformation in the residential and commercial sectors. His market transformation activities include evaluating emerging technologies and investigating programs for energy-saving technologies and practices. He joined ACEEE in 2001. Jennifer Thorne Amann promotes residential and commercial whole building performance improvements, explores behavioral approaches to improving energy efficiency, and analyzes the impacts of stronger appliance efficiency standards. She has authored dozens of publications and articles on appliances, lighting, consumer electronics, equipment installation practices, emerging residential and commercial building technologies, and the progress of market transformation initiatives. She joined ACEEE in 1997. Meegan Kelly conducts research, analysis, and outreach on energy efficiency policies and programs impacting the industrial sector. Since joining ACEEE in 2014, she has contributed to numerous reports and authored a white paper on the role of combined heat and power in EPA’s Clean Power Plan. ii NEW HORIZONS © ACEEE Acknowledgments This research was made possible through the generous financial support of the following organizations: Commonwealth Edison, Energy Trust of Oregon, National Grid, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, Ontario Power Authority, Pacific Gas and Electric, and Southern California Edison. We thank these organizations for supporting this project. Representatives from each of the sponsoring organizations served on the project advisory committee. They are: Michael Brandt and George Malek, Commonwealth Edison Fred Gordon, Energy Trust of Oregon Benjamin Rivers, National Grid Mark Rehley, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance Bronwen Smith, Ontario Power Authority Aaron Berndt, Rafael Friedmann, and Siva Sethuraman, Pacific Gas and Electric Marissa Barrera, Southern California Edison These individuals played a vital role in guiding the research. We thank them for their input. The New Horizons research spans a full spectrum of markets, technologies, and programs that affect energy efficiency. Consequently we relied on the following large set of experts to review our work. Doug Ahl, Seventhwave Aidan Gilbert, ComEd Kathleen Arthur, National Grid Chad Gilles, EnerNOC John Ballam, Massachusetts DOER Ethan Goldman, VEIC Mathias Bell, OPower Fred Gordon, Energy Trust of Oregon Michael Blasnik, Nest Labs, Inc. Jim Grevatt, Energy Futures Group Lara Bonn, VEIC Anne Hampson, ICF International Robert Boteler, Nidec Motor Corporation Jeff Harris, Alliance to Save Energy Stephen Brooks, BPA Bruce Hedman, IIP Michael Brandt, ComEd Cathy Higgins , New Buildings Institute Chris Calwell, Ecos Research Glenn Hourahan, ACCA Leo Carillo, PG&E Sherry Hu, PG&E Mananya Chansanchai, PG&E Marjorie Isaacson, Elevate Energy Rahul Chatterjea, ComEd John Jennings, NEEA Sue Coakley, NEEP Jennifer Kefer, AIE Pierre Delforge, NRDC Rob Kelter, ELPC John Dralle, ComEd Neil Kolwey, SWEEP Jim Edelstein, New Buildings Institute Steven Labarge, ComEd Drake Erbe, AirExchange Nick Lange, VEIC Halley Fitzpatrick, PG&E Francois Lebrasseur, General Electric Rebecca Foster, VEIC Dana Levy, NYSERDA Rafael Friedmann, PG&E Dave Lis, NEEP iii NEW HORIZONS © ACEEE Erin Martin, PG&E Tom Short, EPRI Scott McGaraghan, Nest Labs, Inc Rodney Sobin, NASEO Claire Mizilolek, NEEP Amanda Stevens, SCE Chris Neme, Energy Futures Group Peter Turnbull , PG&E John Nicols, SAIC Puja Vohra, National Grid Jeff Perkins, ERS Caroline Weiner, PG&E Jessica Rackley, ICF International Dale Williams, Commonwealth Edison Danielle Sass-Byrnett, US DOE Raymond Wong, PG&E John Scheihing, US DOE We thank all the above experts for their input, and we regret any omissions. We greatly valued and benefitted from the perspectives and experience of our expert reviewers. At the same time, the findings, conclusions, and recommendations in this report are ACEEE’s alone; external review does not imply affiliation or endorsement. We also thank our colleagues and associates at ACEEE who played important roles in completing and publishing this report. Neal Elliott and Maggie Molina served as research advisors and reviewed our progress throughout the project. Fred Grossberg managed the large and complex editorial process, working with senior editor Elise Marton and a team that included Kate Hayes, Sean O'Brien, and Roxanna Usher. Eric Schwass and Nathan