National Drought Management Authority KITUI COUNTY LARGER MWINGI SUB COUNTY EWS DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN SEPTEMBER2014
Mwingi Region, Kitui County
Livelihood Warning Trend Zone stage
Mixed Alert Worsening farming
Marginal Alarm mixed Stable farming
DISTRICT Alert Worsening
Time line activities Short rain harvest Long rains Long dry spell Short rains Jan Feb March Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Land Long rains Land preparation, cereal preparation, planting /legume planting Lambing harvests Kidding/lambing and kidding coldest month is July
Early warning September 2014 Mwingi bulletin Page 1
Situation overview No rainfall was reported in September and this is normal at this time of the year. The condition of natural vegetation and pasture is fair to poor in quality and quantity across all livelihood zones with a deteriorating trend. Market prices of major food commodities declined in September compared to last month. Livestock body condition is fair for all the species with the exception of Tharaka ward where the body condition is poor for large species. Milk production and consumption declined in September compared to last month. The main source of water for households is traditional river wells. The average walking and grazing distances to water points remained stable in September compared to last month. The return time from water points to households also increased compared to last month. Water stress is mainly experienced in Nguni, Tseikuru and Ngomeni wards. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition rose in September to stand at 10% from 9% last month. The current level of malnutrition is below normal. No major crops pests and disease outbreak were reported. Suspected cases of human-wildlife conflicts and CCPP disease in goats were reported in Ngomeni ward. Pastoralists from the neighboring Tana-River County have migrated into the grazing fields within the County. There was an outbreak of diarrhea cases in Waita Ward suspected to be caused by contaminated water used for drinking. The early warning stage for the month of September is Alert and worsening. Recommendations Promotion small holder horticultural production through development of irrigation infrastructure. Repair of soil and water conservation/water harvesting structures and integrated soil fertility management and relief seed distribution Repair and rehabilitation of key strategic Community boreholes. Livestock breed improvement. De-worming, vaccination and treatment of livestock against notifiable diseases Servicing of piped water supply system and fuel subsidy for selected community boreholes.
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Provision of water treatment drugs in Waita Ward to curb the spread of water borne diseases. Sensitization to the Community on how to practice good hygiene standards by the Public Health Department should be enhanced. Enhanced security surveillance across the common border of Kitui and Tana River Counties boundary Distribution and replacement of worn out rain gauges 1.0 Environmental indicators 1.1 Rainfall
Mwingi Central rainfall in year 2013 and 2014 vs long term average 2006-2013 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40
Rainfall inmm Rainfall 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2006-2013) 42.5 15.6 52.4 119.3 9.1 3.1 0 1 0 52.3 187.1 81.6 Rainfall 2013 18.9 0 77 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.5 84.2 Rainfall 2014 0 55.3 64.1 85.5 0 0 0 0 0 Data source: Ministry of Agriculture
Figure 1 No rainfall was received in the month of September and this is normal at this time of the year as shown in figure 1 above. 1.2 Condition of natural vegetation and pasture 1.2.1 Quality and Quantity of natural vegetation and pasture The quality and quantity of natural vegetation and pasture is fair to poor across livelihood zones with a deteriorating trend.
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1.2.2 Distance to grazing areas
Average grazing distances in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean 2007-2013 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Distances in in km Distances 0.5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2007-2013) 2.4 2.6 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 4 4.1 3.9 1.7 1.8 Grazing distances 2013 2 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.7 2.4 1.8 Grazing distances 2014 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.3 3.2 3.7 3.8 4 4 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 36 Communities Figure 2 Average grazing distances from household to the grazing fields remained at 4km in September as it was last month. The average grazing distances for Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were 4.2km and 3.7km respectively. The current grazing distances are almost normal as shown in figure 2 above. 1.3 Water sources and availability
Main water sources by percentage
Boreholes Natural Rivers 11% 3% Natural Ponds 0% Springs 8% Traditional River wells 49%
Shallow wells Rock 20% Catchments Pans and Dams 6% 3% Figure 3: 1.3.1 Water sources The current major water sources are traditional river wells, shallow wells and boreholes at 49%, 20%and 11% respectively as shown in figure 3 above. Many open water surface facilities have dried up across the livelihood zones. The quality of the water in open sources such as shallow wells and dams is also deteriorating due to congestion by both humans and livestock. The colour and purity
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of the water has been affected. Other sources are suspected to have been contaminated by microorganisms leading to outbreak of water borne disease in Waita Ward. Other water sources are springs, rock catchments, natural rivers and pans and dams Water stress is mainly experienced in Nguni, Tseikuru and Ngomeni wards following dryness of some open water sources and decreasing water levels. 1.3.2 Household access to water
Average walking distances to water points in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean 2009-2013 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1
Distance in Distance km 0.5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2009-2013) 2.5 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.4 3.4 4 4 4.3 3.8 1.9 1.7 Walking distance 2013 2 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.1 2.6 2 Walking distance 2014 2.5 3.2 3.3 2.5 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 36 Communities Figure 4 The average walking distances to water points remained at4.5km in September as it was last month. The marginal mixed farming and mixed farming livelihood zones posted average walking distances of 5.3km and 3.7km respectively. The current average walking distances is above normal as shown in figure 4 above. 1.3.3 Return time to water points
Average time to house in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean (2007 -2013) 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 Time in hrs in Time 0.50 0.00 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Mean (2007 -2013) 1.43 1.66 3.21 1.71 1.96 2.07 2.09 2.59 2.65 4.40 1.20 1.41 2013 0.95 1.25 1.9 1.1 2.1 2.1 2.45 3 2.9 3.5 1.75 1.25 2014 1.65 1.45 2.05 1.6 2.35 3.25 2.65 3.35 3.75 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 36 Communities Figure 5
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The average return time from households to water points increased from 3.4 hours in August to 3.75 hours in September. The Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone had the highest return time of 4.4 hours while the Mixed farming livelihood zone had 3.1 hours of return time. The increase has been caused by both an increase in distances to water points as well as increase in waiting time at water points due to congestion. The current return time from households to water points is above normal as seen in figure 5 above. 1.4 Emerging issues 1.4.1 Conflict Suspected cases of human-wildlife conflict were reported in Ngomeni ward. 1.4.2 Migration Pastoralists from neighbouring Tana River County have migrated into the grazing areas within the county. 1.5 Implication on food security Water situation is expected to worsen until mid October whereby we expect the beginning of short rain season. This will deteriorate livestock body condition and have a negative impact on livestock productivity and human health. Concentration of livestock around few water points is likely to lead to a spread of communicable diseases. 2 Rural indicators (food availability) 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition is fair for all the species across the livelihood zones with a deteriorating trend with the exception of Tharaka ward where the body condition is poor for large species. Livestock are currently feeding on dry fallen matter and acacia pods. 2.1.2 Livestock diseases Suspected cases of CCPP were reported in Ngomeni ward.
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2.1.3 Milk production
Percentage Milk Production 2013 and 2014 vs Long term mean 2010-2013 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
in 750Ml bottles 750Ml in 10 % Milk Production Milk % 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2010-2013) 34 55 32 51 50 61 52 26 23 18 22 30 Milk production 2013 73 69 65 71 56 56 52 46 39 34 35 75 Milk production 2014 66 54 57 63 77 60 50 41 34 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 360 households Figure 6 There was a decline in milk production per household by 7% in September compared to the previous month. Most of the milk produced was from goats that have short lactating period. The current milk production is below normal as shown in figure 6 above. 2.2 Crop production 2.2.1 Timeliness and condition of various crop production activities Land preparation and planting is ongoing across the livelihood zones and this is normal at this time of the year. 2.2.2 Pests and diseases No serious crop pests and disease outbreaks were reported. 2.2.3 Implication on food security Livestock body condition is expected to deteriorate further due to insufficient pasture and water. Reduction in milk production will have a negative impact on human health leading to incremental cases of malnutrition in the county.
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3 Access to food 3.1 Cattle prices
Average household cattle prices in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean 2010-2013 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
Prices in Ksh/head in Prices 5,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2010-2013) 14,685 20,593 17,888 16,951 23,765 23,717 22,859 23,310 19,162 17,955 22,567 22,854 Cattle prices 2013 21,286 30,400 36,347 32,850 27,417 33,325 33,333 26,750 24,500 21,838 23,500 25,333 Cattle prices 2014 31,875 34,700 40,726 33,671 31,500 35,333 31,292 34,417 30,792 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 360 households Figure 7 The current average household cattle prices is above normal as seen in figure 7 above. The average cattle price wasKshs.30,792@head in September down from Kshs.34,417@head last month. The average household cattle prices for both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.37,333@head and Kshs.24,250@head respectively. 3.2 Goat prices
Average household goat prices in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean 2011-2013 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500
Prices in in Ksh /head Prices 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2010-2013) 2311 2703 2709 2509 2540 2556 2559 2501 2537 2529 2512 2746 Goat prices 2013 3,040 3,839 3,273 2,830 2,775 3,139 2,941 2,667 2,723 2,828 2,903 2941 Goat prices 2014 3,092 3,054 2,766 2,779 2,866 2,547 2,741 2,956 2,961 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 360 households Figure 8 The average household goat prices rose from Kshs.2, 956@head last month to Kshs.2,961@head in September. The average household goat prices for both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.3,027@head and Kshs.2,895@head respectively. The current average household goat prices are above normal as seen in figure 8 above.
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3.3 Livestock sales 3.3.1 Cattle sales
Average sales rate for cattle in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean 2007-2013 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Sales rate in % 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2007-2013) 1.3 2 1.6 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 1 Cattle sales rate 2013 1.1 1 1.8 1.9 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.9 Cattle sales rate 2014 1.5 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.3 0.6 1.6 2.2 0.8 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 360 households Figure 9 Average sales rate for cattle declined to 0.8% in September from 2.2% last month an implication that few cattle were sold in September compared to last month. More cattle were sold in Mixed farming livelihood zone compared to Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. The current sales rate for cattle is below normal as seen in figure 9 above. 3.3.2 Goat sales
Average sales rate for goat in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean 2007-2013 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Sales rateSales % in 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2007-2013) 3 3 2.8 2.3 3 3 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 3.2 2.9 Goat sales rate 2013 3 1.9 1.4 1.8 2 1.4 2.4 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.4 Goat sales rate 2014 3 2.1 2.3 1.8 2.2 2.9 2.5 3.8 2 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 360 households Figure 10 Average sales rate for goat declined to 2% in September from 3.8% last month. This implies that few goats were sold in September compared to last month. More goats were sold in Mixed farming livelihood zone compared to Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. The current sales rate for goat is below normal as shown in figure 10 above.
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3.4 Milk consumption
Average household milk consumption in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean 2007-2013 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4
0.2 bottle per household per bottle Consumption in 750ml in Consumption 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2007-2013) 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.9 Milk consumption 2013 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 Milk consumption 2014 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 360 households Figure 11 3 The average household milk consumption declined to a bottle (750ml) per 10 2 household per day in September from last month and this is below normal as seen in 5 figure 11 above. Milk consumption was higher in Mixed farming livelihood zone compared to Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. 3.5 Crop prices. 3. 5.1Maize
Average household maize prices in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean 2009-2013 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10
Prices in Ksh/kg Prices 5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2009-2013) 30 31 30 31 32 35 35 33 32 32 33 33 Maize prices 2013 36 35 33 32 33 33 33 34 35 38 38 37 Maize prices 2014 37 36 37 37 38 41 39 34 32 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 360 households Figure 12 The average household maize prices declined toKshs.32@kg in September from Kshs.34@kglast month. The average prices in the Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.30@kg and Ksh.34@kg respectively. Maize prices are normal at this time of the year as shown in figure 12above.
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3.5.2 Posho
Average household posho prices in 2014 vs long term mean 2009-2013 60 50 40 30 20
10 Prices in Ksh Prices /kg 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2009-2013) 36 37 36 37 39 39 42 38 39 38 39 38 Posho prices 2013 42 42 40 39 40 40 41 38 43 45 45 44 Posho prices 2014 44 43 40 44 45 48 46 41 38 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 360 households Figure 13 The average household posho prices declined to Kshs.38@kg in September from Kshs.41@kg last month. The prices in Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones wereKshs.37@kg and Kshs.40@kg respectively. Posho prices are slightly below normal at this time of the year as seen in figure 13above. 3.5.3 Beans
Average household beans prices in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean
100 2009-2013 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
Prices in Ksh/kg Prices 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2009-2013) 62 60 62 64 68 69 67 68 69 70 74 66 Beans prices 2013 68 62 64 65 66 67 71 73 72 75 94 71 Beans prices 2014 71 74 76 79 80 79 72 70 69 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 360 households Figure 14 The average price of beans declined toKshs.69@kg in September from Kshs.70@kglast month. The average prices in Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.65@kg and Kshs.72@kg respectively. Beans prices are normal at this time of the year as shown in figure 14 above.
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3.5.4Green grams
Average household green grams prices in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean 2010-2013 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Prices in Ksh/kg Prices 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2010-2013) 67 66 66 72 67 68 67 71 75 84 84 86 Green grams prices 2013 54 54 46 54 46 53 52 53 49 66 70 72 Green grams prices 2014 56 69 79 85 82 81 66 61 81 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 360 households Figure 15 The average household green grams prices rose toKshs.81@kg in September from Kshs.61@kglast month. The prices in both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.97@kg and Kshs.65@kg respectively. The increase in prices is due to high demand for planting seeds. Green gram prices are above normal at this time of the year as shown in figure 15 above. 3.6 Household Income
Household income sources by percentage, September 2014
Crop sales Sale of charcoal 0% Gifts items 2% 1% Petty trading 11% Formal empolyment Casual 11% labour 49%
Livestock sales 10% Remittances 16% Figure 16 3.6.1 Crop income Crop sales remained at 0% of the total household income in September as it was last month.
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3.6.2 Livestock income Livestock sales declined to 10% of the total household income in September from 12% last month. Livestock sales were higher in Mixed farming livelihood zone compared to Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. 3.6.3 Other sources of income Casual labour was the main source of income at 49% followed by remittances at 16% and formal employment salary at 11%as shown in figure 16 above. 3.7 Cereal: Meat price ratio
Purchasing power:Cereal-meat ratio in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean 2007-2013 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Percentage 10 5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2007-2013) 36 36 38 34 35 40 40 45 45 45 47 42 Cereal:meat ratio 2013 39 25 30 29 35 29 32 33 38 38 45 40 Cereal:meat ratio 2014 40 38 34 37 46 43 41 35 36 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 360 households Figure 18 Terms of trade between cereal and meat products rose to 36% in Septemberfrom35%last month. The terms of trade for both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were 30% and 43% respectively. The current terms of trade is below normal as seen in figure 16 above. 3.7 Implications on food security Markets are expected to function normally and stabilize food commodity prices. The decline in food prices is due to good supplies from outside the county. Terms of trade are currently in favour of livestock producers.
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4 Welfare 4.1 Nutritional status of children (Expressed in terms of MUAC)
Nutritional status of children under five years old(MUAC <135mm) in 2013 and 2014 vs long term mean 2007-2013 14 12 10 8 6 4 malnutrition 2 0 % of children atrisk of atrisk children of % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Mean (2007-2013) 13 12 11 10 10 11 11 12 11 13 12 12 MUAC 2013 8 10 10 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 MUAC 2014 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 9 10 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 1855 children Figure 18 The number of children at risk of malnutrition rose to 10% in September from 9% last month. The average rate was at 10.3% and 9.2% in the Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. The current level of malnutrition (Number of children with MUAC<135MM) is below normal as seen in figure 18 above. 4.2 Human health There was an outbreak of diarrhoea cases in Waita Ward within Mwingi Central Sub County. It is suspected that this could have been caused by contaminated water and the failure of Community members not observing proper hygiene standards. 5 Current intervention measures and coping strategies 5.1 Coping strategies
Average coping strategy index in 2013 and 2014 vs long term average 2007-2013
10 1.6 - 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
Coping strategy index 0 index strategy Coping Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Mean (2007-2013) 1 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 Coping strategy index 2013 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1 1.1 1.1 1 Coping strategy index 2014 0.9 0.7 0.8 1 1.1 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 Data source: National Drought Management Authority Sample size (N) = 360 households Figure 19
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The coping strategy index rose to 1.4% in September from 1.3%last month. The coping strategy index in both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were 1.6% and 1.1% respectively. The index is above normal as shown in figure 18 above. 5.2 Ongoing Non food interventions Repair and rehabilitation of key strategic Community boreholes. Servicing of piped water supply system. Issuance of drought tolerant seeds by the Kenya Red Cross in Tseikuru Ward Fuel subsidy for selected community boreholes. Peace building and reconciliation. Repair of roads. Outpatient Therapeutic Programme (OPT). 5.3 Ongoing Food interventions Cash distribution for PRRO programme. Supplementary feeding program. School feeding programme. Relief seed distribution.
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