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The Bay of Bengal in the Emerging Indo-Pacific

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The Bay of Bengal in the Emerging Indo-Pacific OCTOBER 2020 ISSUE NO. 416 The Bay of Bengal in the Emerging Indo-Pacific C. RAJA MOHAN ABSTRACT This brief looks at the growing strategic significance of the Bay of Bengal within the emerging and increasingly contested geography of the Indo-Pacific. In three parts, the brief outlines the historic evolution of the littoral, examines the implications of its strategic location at the heart of the Indo-Pacific, and ponders the unfolding challenges to regionalism in the Bay of Bengal. It concludes with a call on India to intensify its efforts to construct a more secure and cooperative Bay of Bengal littoral. Attribution: C. Raja Mohan, “The Bay of Bengal in the Emerging Indo-Pacific,” ORF Issue Brief No. 416, October 2020, Observer Research Foundation. Observer Research Foundation (ORF) is a public policy think tank that aims to influence the formulation of policies for building a strong and prosperous India. ORF pursues these goals by providing informed analyses and in-depth research, and organising events that serve as platforms for stimulating and productive discussions. ISBN: © 2020 Observer Research Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, copied, archived, retained or transmitted through print, speech or electronic media without prior written approval from ORF. The Bay of Bengal in the Emerging Indo-Pacific THE BaY OF BENGAL: A BRIEF HISTORY in the modern era as European powers arrived in the East and began to connect At first look, the Bay of Bengal seems a the littoral to global markets.1 There was placid sea, but for the seasonal cyclones intense competition among the European that disturb life in the littoral. It is almost powers for the resources and markets a closed sea with just three countries of the region, eventually leading to the bordering its northern reaches—Burma, colonisation of the Bay of Bengal territories Bangladesh and India. The northern waters and beyond. of the Bay are also far from the main sea lines of communication in the Indian Ocean In the early 19th century, the rivalries that connect the dynamic economies of East among the European great powers ended Asia with the traditional markets of Europe after the Napoleonic Wars with the triumph via the oil rich Gulf and rapidly growing of Great Britain. Its Dutch and French Africa. The region has not seen any serious rivals accepted British primacy and arrived great-power rivalries nor major conflicts at territorial accommodations in the littoral in the recent past. Over the last decade, of the Bay of Bengal and, more broadly, in however, this sense of calm in the waters the region now known as the Indo-Pacific. of the Bay of Bengal has begun to erode. It The 19th century, however, saw the political is poised to become, once again, a zone of and administrative integration of the geopolitical rivalry among major powers Subcontinent into a coherent territorial and of regional conflict. entity under the British Raj. The Raj anchored in Calcutta annexed Burma and Throughout the ancient times, the Bay extended its sway over the Malay Peninsula. of Bengal was the natural bridge between To the north, it continued to probe trans- the Subcontinent and the abutting regions Himalayan regions, including Tibet and to the east right up to the southern coast of Yunnan, and test the Qing empire’s control China. The movement of people, goods and of these regions. ideas across the Bay of Bengal was extensive and enriched all civilisations along the On the maritime side, the entire Bay of littoral. Its hinterland included the vast Bengal littoral—from Ceylon to Singapore— Gangetic Plain and the trans-Himalayan came under the political and commercial spaces of inner Asia, as well as the remote hegemony of the Raj. This, in turn, allowed northern regions of Burma. The spread of the more purposeful political and strategic Hindu and Buddhist influences across the direction of the subcontinent's massive littoral was later followed by the spread of material and manpower resources all across Islam, both of which were helped by the the littoral. The political hegemony of the movement of trading communities along Raj also facilitated the integration of the the Subcontinent’s coast. The interaction littoral into the framework of economic across the littoral gained greater intensity globalisation that reshaped the Indian 2 ORF ISSUE BRIEF No. 416 OCTOBER 2020 The Bay of Bengal in the Emerging Indo-Pacific Ocean and broader Asia. It paved the way States and Nationalist China—is a reminder for the movement of Indian capital and that the actors shaping the Bay of Bengal labour through the Bay of Bengal and today remain mostly the same. beyond in the Indian Ocean.2 Notwithstanding the success of the Raj The primacy of the Raj in the littoral in ousting Imperial Japan from the littoral, was threatened briefly during the First the Bay of Bengal would not return to its World War, when the German cruiser status as the “the British lake”. It would Emden spread mayhem in the waters of Bay simply disappear from the geopolitical and of Bengal. That brief interlude presaged the geo-economic view in the second half of the kind of challenges that would eventually 20th century. It was only at the turn of the undo the Raj. That threat was key in the new millennium that the Bay would regain Second World War, as a rising Japan ousted some of its strategic significance. Britain from Malaya and Burma and reached the eastern land gates of the Raj, occupied THE INDo-PACIFIC FULCRUM the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and set up a provisional government of India in While the decline of the Raj—and in parallel, Port Blair. The Raj needed all the resources the decolonisation of the subcontinent— of the Subcontinent and assistance from partly explain the decline in the importance afar to reverse the Japanese occupation of the Bay of Bengal, three factors rooted of South East Asia and its ingress towards in the politics of the littoral itself proved India. more crucial. One was the partition of the Subcontinent that resulted in the If the Indian Army swelled to more fragmentation of the region’s energies. The than two million soldiers in the Second Undivided India that was key in shaping World War, nearly 800,000 troops had to the politics of the Indian Ocean and the be deployed to the so-called Burma-China- Pacific in the 19th century found itself India (BCI) theatre. The Allied triumph having to cope with internal conflicts. If the in the Bay of Bengal, at great cost, and military energies of the Raj were focused the enormous sacrifices of the people of outward, those of its successor states were, the Subcontinent would soon fade from unfortunately for India, directed at each memory amidst the shifting great-power other. The territorial disputes between India alignment, the wave of decolonisation, and and Pakistan and the enduring conflicts crucial internal changes in key nations of they generated helped diminish the the littoral. The massive battles in the BCI standing of the new states. This tragic turn theatre were called, by then, the 'forgotten was further complicated by the impact of war'.3 The anti-Japan alliance forged in the Cold War power politics among the that war—between the Raj, Britain, United United States, Soviet Russia and China. ORF ISSUE BRIEF No. 416 OCTOBER 2020 3 The Bay of Bengal in the Emerging Indo-Pacific The second development of consequence economic autarky gained ground in South was India’s refusal to partner with Great Asia and South East Asia after the Second Britain and other Western nations in World War, the commercial significance of moulding the post-War regional order. the Bay of Bengal began to diminish. As India’s determination to pursue a non- Partition erected new borders within the aligned foreign policy meant that New Subcontinent, the emphasis on economic Delhi would have nothing to do with the self-reliance hindered engagement. The new security arrangements, including political fascination with state socialism the Cold War alliances such as the Central within the Subcontinent, for example, Treaty Organisation (CENTO) and South resulted in the disruption of multiple trade East Asia Treaty Organisation (SEATO). and financial links that were forged during Pakistan, for its part, decided to join these the globalisation of the region under the alliances—underlining the sharp divergence Raj. in world views of the two successor states to the Raj. It also dampened any prospects To be sure, the South East Asian for nurturing a cooperative relationship nations changed course from the 1970s between India and Pakistan.4 and abandoned state socialism, and began reconnecting with the global markets. As CENTO and SEATO, however, could not the Subcontinent and Burma persisted in survive the vicissitudes of post-Cold War their isolationist ways, the interest of the regional politics in the Indian Ocean and Association of South East Asian Nations beyond. With the breaking up of the 'India (ASEAN), founded in the late 1960s, in Centre' that provided the basis for regional looking west to the Bay of Bengal began security until the middle of the 20th century, to diminish. If, under the Raj, South Asia there was no easy way of supplanting and South East Asia were seen as part of it without an effective participation of a commercial continuum, they became independent India.5 In any event, the focus increasingly different regions with little of geopolitical contestation during the Cold economic engagement. The deep disconnect War was riveted on Central Europe and between the two regions inevitably led to North East Asia.
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