EPP suffered by not finding forward-looking answers to attacks from within
Media image of the candidates for Juncker succession Sept 1 – Oct 29, 2018
Roland Schatz Basis: 327 reports on Jean-Claude Juncker, 138 reports on Manfred Weber, [email protected] 24 reports on Alexander Stubb +41-79-2553636 Media image of the parties in international TV news Media presence and rating of European Parliament groups, 2012 - 2018
EPP lost momentum one year ahead of the elections
EPP EPP S&D
ALDE S&D
ENF ECR ECR
GUE-NGL ENF
EFDD 2012-2017 ALDE 1-10/2018 Greens–EFA
0 50 100 150 0 10 20 30
number of reports negative no clear rating positive
All parties failed to actively communicate on an ongoing basis with their constituents. Only 316 reports on EU TV primetime news since 2012 underlined why problems like Brexit happen: people don’t see themselves represented. EPP suffered dramatically from CSU in Bavaria.
Basis: 316 reports on European Parliament groups in 10 international TV news media 2 Media image of the EPP in international TV news Presence and rating of EPP by topics, 2012 - 2018
EPP hardly receives visibility on factual issues any more
EU in general, other topic Parties: internal affairs European elections Election outcomes Relation EU/member countries Internal democracy Internal democracy Events Relation EU/member countries Party politics, other Parliamentary work Party politics, other Parliamentary work Personnel decisions Political platform 95% German Election campaigns TV media EU in general Tendency/Competence Management, other Parties: internal affairs European elections Political platform European policy coded country Politicians: relation to party Tendency/Competence 2012-2017 Asylum/deportation 1-10/2018 EU budget in general Coalitions and cooperations EU budget in general 0 10 20 30 40 0 2 4 6 8
number of reports negative no clear rating positive
Reporting on the EPP in 2018 has been largely limited to Manfred Weber's candidacy and German TV news. The debate is perceived as a German topic. At present, debates on factual issues do not play a role.
Basis: 148 reports on EPP in 10 international TV news media 3 Media image of the candidates for Juncker succession Media presence of Juncker, Weber, and Stubb, Sep 1 – Oct 29, 2018
No fair competition in regards to candidate visibility
Jean-Claude Juncker Jean-Claude Juncker
Manfred Weber Manfred Weber
Alexander Stubb Alexander Stubb
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 200 400 600 number of reports negative no clear rating positive
While EPP in general receives the bulk of the limited media attention, the choice regarding who should follow Juncker is so far not presented as such. During the decisive two months ahead of the elections on Nov 8, Weber has received four times more visibility.
Basis: 550 reports on Jean-Claude Juncker, 225 reports on Manfred Weber, 44 reports on Alexander Stubb 4 Media image of the candidates for Juncker succession Media presence of Juncker, Weber, and Stubb with regard to media markets, Sep 1 – Oct 29, 2018
So far media show little interest in who will lead Europe
German Austrian Italian Spanish French Belgian
0 50 100 150 200
German German Spanish Austrian Austrian Spanish Italian Belgian French Italian Belgian French
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Opinion leading media give the German candidate most visibility. This is surprising. Martin Selmayr, the Secretary General of the Commission, is one of several Germans already in a top post in Brussels. Why would MPs in Strasbourg vote for another German next May?
Basis: 550 reports on Jean-Claude Juncker, 225 reports on Manfred Weber, 44 reports on Alexander Stubb 5 Media image of the candidates for Juncker succession Topic Structure of Weber’s and Stubb’s media image, Sep 1 – Oct 29, 2018
Candidates’ solutions for key EU topics not visible
EU Personality Personality Party politics Values EU Domestic policy Values Elections Elections PR/Image/Scandals Regulation/Politics Domestic policy Foreign policy Technology/science Minorities Minorities International economy PR/Image/Scandals Society in general International economy Economic policy International conflicts International conflicts Budget Domestic security/crime Social policy State of the economy Foreign policy Currency/EURO Markets Evaluation business location HR Marketing/clients Marketing/clients Budget Parties: Management Domestic security/crime Social policy Regulation/Politics Labor market Labor market Parties: Strategy History in general Technology/science Media Nazi history Economic policy 0 100 200 300 0 20 40 60 80 number of mentioned topics (>1) number of mentioned topics
Europe is under attack in regards to how the continent is handling the challenges related to migration, financing education, infrastructure, fair pension systems for all members, and the future of its health system, but the candidates’ perspectives remain unseen.
Basis: 225 reports on Manfred Weber, 44 reports on Alexander Stubb 6 Media image of the candidates for Juncker succession Concrete media outlets of Weber’s and Stubb’s media image, Sep 1 – Oct 29, 2018
Friendly tone of fair race reflected in the media rating so far
Süddeutsche Presse FAZ Der Standard Handelsblatt
El Pais FAZ ABC Süddeutsche El Mundo Handelsblatt Expansion
Presse El Pais Der Standard Expansion ABC La Repubblica El Mundo Corriere della Sera Il sole 24 ore Le Soir Le Monde Le Figaro Les Echos Les Echos
Le Soir La Repubblica 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 2 4 6 8 10
number of reports negative no clear rating positive
As both candidates have a good relationship with each other, they treat their competition respectfully. This is reflected in the media. Questions for Weber on whether recent developments in Germany call him to the helm of his CSU to follow Seehofer need answers.
Basis: 225 reports on Manfred Weber, 44 reports on Alexander Stubb 7 Media image of the candidates for Juncker succession Reference area of Weber’s and Stubb’s media image, Sep 1 – Oct 29, 2018 Media show hardly any concrete breakdown by country on how the candidates plan to lead the EU
European Union
Germany European Union
Hungary
Italy Germany Eastern and Western Europe
Africa, several countries
no country Eastern and Western Europe
UK
Greece Hungary Bulgaria
0 50 100 150 200 0 10 20 30 40
number of reports negative no clear rating positive
So far, reporting on both candidates is more general without highlighting concrete options for individual countries or the challenges Europe is facing with Africa. This is a result of the limited coverage both candidates have received so far.
Basis: 225 reports on Manfred Weber, 44 reports on Alexander Stubb 8 Media image of the candidates for Juncker succession Sources of Weber’s and Stubb’s media image, Sep 1 – Oct 29, 2018
Little perspective presented from experts so far
Journalist Manfred Weber Hans Maier Journalist Peter Altmaier Günther Öttinger Horst Seehofer Pablo Casado Sebastian Kurz German Government Alexander Stubb Hannes Swoboda Christian Lindner Alexander Stubb Angela Merkel Yascha Mounk EPP Pablo Casado Viktor Orban Stefan Lehne 0 50 100 150 200 0 10 20 30 40
number of reports negative no clear rating positive
So far, neither candidate is presented in a way that tells media audiences how relevant and trusted experts and partners see the candidates and their ability to lead the continent in times of challenge. None of Stubb’s colleagues as former heads of state are quoted so far.
Basis: 225 reports on Manfred Weber, 44 reports on Alexander Stubb 9 Media image of the candidates for Juncker succession Time reference of Weber’s and Stubb’s media image, Sep 1 – Oct 29, 2018
Perspective is missing when media report on the candidates
present present present and future equally present and future equally past and present
conditional future past and present developments
forecast: next 12 months conditional future developments forecasts (future)
forecasts/future past since 1989
0 50 100 150 200 0 10 20 30 40 number of reports
Whoever wins the vote on Nov 8 will most likely be the leader of Europe for five years. So far the media have provided little information on their plans to create a solid future for the continent. This forces the audience to do its own research about Finland and Germany.
Basis: 225 reports on Manfred Weber, 44 reports on Alexander Stubb 10 Media Set
International print media: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Handelsblatt Die Presse, Der Standard Le Monde, Le Figaro, Les Echos La Repubblica, Corriere dela Sera, Il sole 24 ore El Pais, El Mundo, ABC, Expansion Het Latste Nieuws, Le Soir, De Standard
International TV news: ARD Tagesschau and Tagesthemen, ZDF heute and heute-journal, TF 1 Le Journal, RAI 1 TG1, BBC 10 o'clock, SRF Tagesschau, TVE 1 Telediario, CBS Evening News, FOX Special Report
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