Changing Skies Over Central North Carolina VOLUME 13, ISSUE 3 SUMMER 2016 NOAA’S NATIONAL WEAT HER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC

INSIDE THIS An In-depth Look at the 2016 Season ISSUE: The 2016 Atlantic hurricane How is a seasonal forecast these anomalies are felt glob- Hurricane 2 season got off to an early created? ally throughout the atmos- Preparedness start with the development of phere. Subtropical Storm Alex on We’ve all heard it said: “You GSO Upper Air 3 January 13th. Alex intensified can’t get today’s forecast Across the tropical Atlantic, Site Receives to hurricane status the fol- right; how can you make a an El Niño (associated with a Perfect Score lowing day, becoming only forecast for the next five positive Oceanic Niño Index, the second Atlantic hurricane months?!” We can debate the or ONI) is typically associat- NWS Raleigh 6 on record to form in January. former point, but the ques- ed with stronger vertical Welcomes New Following Alex, three addi- tion is certainly worth ad- wind shear. This shear is det- Meteorologist in tional tropical storms formed Charge in the Atlantic in May and June: Bonnie, Colin, and Dan- NWS Raleigh 6 ielle. Two of these storms— Bids Farewell to Bonnie and Colin—impacted Forecaster portions of the Carolinas, Katie Dedeaux with Bonnie making landfall as a tropical depression near Ten Dangers at 7 Charleston, SC on May 29th. the Beach Alex and Danielle steered clear of the United States, though Danielle did impact portions of Mexico. Latest forecasts indicate that The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and runs near to above-normal activity through November 30. is anticipated through the remainder of the Atlantic dressing. rimental to the development hurricane season. NOAA is or strengthening of tropical forecasting that 10-16 named Producing seasonal forecasts . Accordingly, an El cyclones (tropical storm requires a different paradigm Niño is generally thought to strength or greater, 39-73 than day-to-day operations, coincide with below average mph sustained winds), 4-8 focusing on hemispheric pat- tropical activity in the hurricanes (greater than 74 terns that change on longer Atlantic. On the other hand, mph sustained winds), and 1- time scales than those that a La Niña (associated with a 4 major hurricanes (130 mph tend to impact our daily negative ONI) tends to coin- or greater sustained winds) weather variations. One such cide with an above average can be expected, including pattern that is well-known is Atlantic hurricane season, as the four named storms that the El Niño-Southern Oscilla- wind shear tends to be weak- have already occurred. For tion (ENSO). Although El er across the tropical Atlan- comparison, the average sea- Niño’s phase (positive or tic. son sees approximately 12 negative) is directly related to named storms, 6 hurricanes, sea surface temperature Taking a look back at the ten and 3 major hurricanes. anomalies in the tropical Pa- strongest El Niños and cific, effects stemming from (continued on Page 4) P A G E 2 Preparedness is Paramount During Hurricane Season

your area, you can increase and storm shutters. your chance of survival. 4. Review your insurance What to Do Before the policy to ensure that Tropical Storm or Hur- you have adequate cov- ricane erage for your home. The best time to prepare 5. Understand NWS fore- for a hurricane is before cast products, especially hurricane season begins on the meaning of NWS June 1. It is vital to under- watches and warnings. stand your home's vulnera- Actions to Take When a Hurricanes are among na- bility to storm surge, flood- Tropical Storm or Hurri- “While the risk for ture's most powerful and ing, and wind. Here is your destructive phenomena. On checklist of things to do cane Threatens devastating hurri- average, 12 tropical storms, BEFORE the hurricane sea- When a hurricane threatens 6 of which become hurri- your community, be pre- cane hazards is son begins. canes form over the Atlantic pared to evacuate if you live 1. If you live or have Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or in a storm surge risk area. greatest along and property near the Gulf of Mexico during the Allow enough time to pack coast, know your zone. near the coast, the hurricane season which runs and inform friends and family Find out if you live in a from June 1 to November if you need to leave your entire state of hurricane evacuation 30 each year. Over a typical home. 2-year period, the U.S. area by contacting your North Carolina is 1. Secure your home: Cov- coastline is struck by an local government/ er all of your home's susceptible to hur- average of 3 hurricanes, 1 of emergency manage- windows. Permanent which is classified as a major ment office or by storm shutters offer the ricane hazards hurricane (winds of 111 checking their evacua- best protection for win- mph or greater). While the tion website. such as inland dows. A second option risk for devastating hurri- 2. Before an emergency is to board up windows flooding from cane hazards is greatest happens, sit down with with 5/8 inch exterior along and near the coast, your family or close grade or marine ply- heavy rains, de- the entire state of North friends and decide how wood, built to fit and Carolina is susceptible to you will get in contact structive winds, ready to install. Buy sup- hurricane hazards such as with each other, where plies before the hurri- inland flooding from heavy you will go and what and tornadoes.” cane season rather than rains, destructive winds, and you will do in an emer- waiting for the pre- tornadoes. Hazards specific gency. Keep a copy of to our state’s coastal areas this plan in your emer- storm rush. include storm surge flood- gency supplies kit or 2. Stay tuned in: Check the ing, high surf and rip cur- another safe place websites of your local rents. It’s important to where you can access it National Weather Ser- remember that while hurri- in the event of a disas- vice office and local gov- canes pose the greatest ter. Start at the ernment/emergency threat to life and property, Ready.Gov emergency management office. Find tropical storms and depres- plan webpage. out what type of emer- sion also can be devastating. gencies could occur and 3. Put together a basic By knowing what actions to how you should re- disaster supplies kit and take before the hurricane spond. Listen to NOAA consider storage loca- season begins, when a hurri- Weather Radio or other tions for different situa- cane approaches, what ac- radio or TV stations for tions. Check emergency tion to take when the storm the latest storm news. is in your area, and what to equipment, such as do after a hurricane leaves flashlights, generators 3. Follow instructions is-

CHANGING SKIES VOLUME 13, ISSUE 3 P A G E 3

sued by local officials. NOAA Weather Radio or 6. Carbon monoxide poison- Leave immediately if or- the local news for the ing is one of the leading dered! latest updates. causes of death after storms in areas dealing 4. If NOT ordered to evac- 2. If you evacuated, return with power outages. Nev- uate: home only when officials er use a portable genera- a. Take refuge in a small say it is safe. tor inside your home or interior room, closet 3. Once home, drive only if garage. Review generator or hallway on the low- necessary and avoid flood- safety. est level during the ed roads and washed-out 7. Use battery-powered storm. Put as many bridges. If you must go flashlights. Do NOT use walls between you and out, watch for fallen ob- candles. Turn on your the outside as you can. jects in the road, downed flashlight before entering a electrical wires, and weak- b. Stay away from win- vacated building. The bat- ened walls, bridges, roads dows, skylights and tery could produce a and sidewalks that might glass doors. spark that could ignite collapse. leaking gas, if present. c. If the eye of the storm 4. Walk carefully around the passes over your area, For more information outside of your home to there will be a short about hurricane safety and check for loose power period of calm, but at preparedness, please visit lines, gas leaks and struc- the other side of the the following web sites: eye, the wind speed tural damage. rapidly increases to 5. Stay out of any building if www.weather.gov/hurricane hurricane force winds you smell gas, if floodwa- Ready.Gov coming from the oppo- ters remain around the ReadyNC.org site direction. building or if the building or home was damaged by -Nick Petro After the Storm fire and the authorities 1. Continue listening to a have not declared it safe. Greensboro Upper Air Achieves Perfect Performance Score rank isn't everything, but that curate as possible. Every number one spot is not month, 92 upper air earned by accident- it is a sites around the country team effort; owing to every launch 5,700 balloons in aspect of the operation com- support of the National ing together just right. Sup- Weather Service’s mis- plies must be fresh, equipment sion to save lives and must be well-maintained, and property. In June, the all the people involved must Greensboro upper air be skilled, reliable, and 100% site achieved a perfect committed to excellence,” performance score of said GSO Station manger 300, tied for best in the Chris Gatti. The NWS in Ra- Weather balloon at GSO nation. The performance leigh salutes the staff of the Weather balloons are an ex- score was developed in 1998 GSO upper air site for their tremely important part of the as an aid to help evaluate hard work and commitment network of global observa- NWS upper-air station per- to reliable weather data. formance nationwide and tions that go into the models -Ryan Ellis to help them establish the improve data availability, initial conditions that will al- quantity, and quality. low the forecast to be as ac- “I understand that the station P A G E 4 2016 Hurricane Outlook (continued from page 1)

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is somewhat similar to ONI, as it is an index based upon sea-surface temperature (SST) anoma- lies. However, the AMO “Latest three-month varies from -averaged values of the ONI in two respects. the ONI (averaged First, its phase (warm or over April-May-June) cool) is deter- suggested a weak El mined by SST anomalies in Niño was still in pro- the Atlantic, rather than gress. However, val- the Pacific. Further, the ues have since trend- AMO tends ed toward neutral, to vary over a longer time and the Climate Pre- period than ONI—on the diction Center sug- order of dec- gests that a transi- ades rather than year-to- tion to La Niña con- year. ditions could occur A warm phase of the this summer. ” AMO is asso- ciated with warmer-than- average SSTs across much of the Atlan- tic, while a cool phase is correlated La Niñas during hurricane conditions. Only two of the with below-average Atlantic seasons since 1950, there is ten strongest El Niños were SSTs. Given that tropical cy- indeed—on average—a gen- associated with ten or more clones thrive on warm wa- eral decrease in the total Atlantic tropical or subtropi- ters, it stands to reason that number of tropical or sub- cal cyclones, compared to there would be a positive tropical cyclones developing eight of the ten strongest La correlation between the in the Atlantic during El Niño Niñas.

CHANGING SKIES VOLUME 13, ISSUE 3 P A G E 5

while, 80% of the Atlantic hurricane seasons associated with the ten lowest average AMO val- ues saw less than ten tropical cy- clones. How do current values compare? Latest three-month -averaged values of the ONI (averaged over April-May- June) suggested a weak El Niño was still in progress. However, values have since trended toward neutral, and the Climate Prediction Center suggests that a transition to La Niña conditions could occur this summer. The latest monthly averaged AMO value (from May) was 0.359, which corresponds to a fairly strong positive AMO. Generally positive conditions are ex- pected to continue through the hurri- cane season. Based on the previous analysis, current trends are con- sistent with the forecasts of above average activity during this Atlantic hurricane season.

-Keith Sherburn

AMO and Atlantic tropical cy- ten highest average AMO values clone activity. Indeed, the Atlan- were all associated with ten or tic hurricane seasons with the more tropical cyclones. Mean- P A G E 6 NWS Raleigh Welcomes New Meteorologist-in-Charge

1993. He then moved to ments. In 2008, he was pro- Weather Forecast Office moted to Warning Coordi- (WFO) Mt. Holly, NJ and nation Meteorologist at then to WFO Taunton, MA WFO Charleston, WV. Two as a General Forecaster. In years later he moved on to 2003, he became the Weather Service Headquar- Mesoscale/Regional Aviation ters, serving on the Direc- Meteorologist (RAM) in East- tor’s staff as the agency’s ern Region’s Meteorological Chief Negotiator. Jason as- Jason Franklin Services Division on Long sisted with on-site Decision Island, NY. As RAM, Jason Support Services at FEMA This July, the National Weath- helped to coordinate access Region II during Hurricanes er Service Forecast Office in to Federal Aviation Admin- Irene and Sandy. In 2012, Raleigh, NC welcomed its istration (FAA) Terminal Jason returned to Eastern newest team member, Mete- Doppler Weather Radars Region as the Meteorologist- orologist-in-Charge, Jason (TDWRs). He was a key in-Charge of WFO Buffalo, Franklin. Jason started his member of the Center NY. He is a graduate of career with the National Weather Service Unit Re- SUNY Albany. Weather Service as an Intern quirements Team, helping at Weather Service Office NWS formulate a response -Jason Tuell (WSO) Atlantic City, NJ in to FAA’s CWSU require- Eastern Region Director

NWS Raleigh Bids Farewell to Forecaster Katie Dedeaux During her time at program, Katie spent many the Raleigh fore- shifts working on the office’s cast office, Katie storm data program which has worked a wide helps to verify and document variety of weather every severe weather warning events including that occurs in central NC. the April 16, 2011 Foreshadowing her current outbreak, promotion, Katie worked several winter with the current hydrologist storms and a few to help survey river gauges Katie Dedeaux tropical events as and make presentations to well. NWS Raleigh’s hydrology This August, the National Katie led the aviation weather Weather Service in Raleigh partners. program at the Raleigh office will say farewell to journey- Above all, Katie’s infectious and brought the outreach man forecaster Katie De- personality and compassion program to new heights, giv- deaux who has accepted a for others made her a favorite ing several talks at flying clubs promotion to the NWS fore- of the entire staff and we will around central NC and run- cast office in San Angelo, Tex- ning several workshops sorely miss her. as where she will begin a new geared towards general avia- From all of us here at WFO adventure as the senior ser- tion pilots. She is also in- Raleigh, congratulations Katie vice hydrologist. While still volved in an ongoing research and best of luck in your new spending some of her time project which is looking at forecasting, her new position position! low level wind shear events in will include duties related to -Ryan Ellis flooding and as well central NC. as other water related duties. In addition to the aviation

CHANGING SKIES VOLUME 13, ISSUE 3 P A G E 7

Ten Dangers at the Beach

Rip Currents are substantial buildings and Too much heat and sun can hard-topped vehicles. Rain shel- spoil a vacation. Heat is the Rip currents account for more ters, small sheds, and open vehi- leading weather-related killer than 80 percent of rescues per- cles are not safe. Wait 30 in the United States, causing formed by surf beach lifeguards. minutes after the last thunder more deaths than floods, light- They are powerful, channeled crack before going back to the ning, , and hurricanes currents of water flowing away combined. Heat disorder from shore that quickly pull beach. symptoms include sunburn, swimmers out to sea. Rip cur- heat cramps, heat exhaustion, rents typically extend from the A is a series of ocean and heat stroke. Spending the shoreline, through the surf zone, waves generated by any rapid day at the beach can lead to and past the line of breaking large-scale disturbance of waves. The best way to stay the sea water. Most are safe is to recognize the danger generated by earthquakes, of rip currents. If caught in one, but may also be caused by don't fight it! Swim parallel to volcanic eruptions, land- the shore and swim back to land slides, undersea slumps, or at an angle. Always remember to meteor impacts. The tsuna- swim at beaches with lifeguards. mi wave may come gently Shorebreak ashore or may increase in height to become a fast A shorebreak is an ocean condi- moving wall of turbulent tion when waves break directly water several meters high. on the shore. Both small and Although we can’t prevent high waves can be equally as them, the effects can be unpredictable and dangerous reduced through prepared- and typically form when there is ness, timely warnings, and a rapid transition from deep to shallow water. The power of a effective response. shorebreak can cause injuries to Jellyfish extremities and the cervical Keep an eye out spine. Spinal cord injuries most for jellyfish. All jellyfish often occur when diving head- sting, but not all have ven- first into the water or being om that hurts humans. Of tumbled in the waves by the the 2,000 species of jelly- force of the waves. Be sure to fish, only about 70 serious- ask a lifeguard about the wave ly harm or may occasional- conditions before going into the ly kill people. When on the water. beach, take note of jellyfish Lightning warning signs. Be careful around any of these disorders but the jellies washed up on the sand as most visible is sunburn, which Since 2006, an average of 33 some still sting if their tentacles can take up to 24 hours be- people have been killed annually are wet. Tentacles torn off a fore the full damage is visi- by lightning in the United States. jellyfish can sting, too. If you are ble.When a burn is severe, Already in 2014, seven people stung, don't rinse with water, accompanied by a headache, have died due to lightning which could release more poi- chills, or a fever, seek medical strikes. There is no safe place son. Lifeguards usually give first outside when are help right away. aid for stings. See a doctor if you in the area. When thunder (continued on page 8) roars, go indoors! The safest have an allergic reaction.

places during lightning activity Heat and Sunburn NOAA’s National Weather Service Raleigh, NC 1005 Capability Drive Suite 300 Centennial Campus Raleigh, NC 27606 Phone: 919-515-8209 Fax: 919-515-8213

Beach Dangers (continued from page 7)

Harmful Algal Blooms poor water quality often prevent Often this debris, or litter, ends the public from enjoying these Harmful Algal Blooms up on our beaches damaging resources. As water flows from (HABs) (popularly referred to as habitats, harming wildlife, and land to coastal waters, it is often red tides) are dense populations making it unsafe for beach goers contaminated by untreated sew- or "blooms" of algae that form in to walk along the shoreline and age from boats, pets, failing sep- coastal waters. A small percent- swim in the water. tic systems, fertilizers, and spills age of these blooms can be toxic from hazardous substances. High Sharks to marine animals and humans. levels of bacteria and other People can get sick by swimming Shark attacks, though rare, are chemicals in the water can cause directly in the water and by eat- most likely to occur near shore, gastrointestinal illnesses in those ing contaminated shellfish. If a typically inshore of a sandbar or that swim directly in the water. sufficient amount of toxins are between sandbars, where sharks When visiting the beach, be ingested, the results can be fatal. can become trapped by low tide, aware of all beach closures and Scientists can forecast the timing and near steep drop offs where advisories. and location of blooms. This al- shark’s prey gather. The relative lows coastal managers and public Marine Debris risk of a shark attack is very health officials to make desicions small but should always be mini- Our oceans are filled with items regarding shellfish harvesting and mized whenever possible. To that do not belong there. Huge beach closures to ensure the reduce your risk don’t swim too amounts of consumer plastics, health of both residents and visi- far from shore, stay in groups, metals, rubber, paper, textiles, tors. avoid being in the water during derelict fishing gear, vessels, and darkness or twilight, don’t go in Water Quality other lost or discarded items the water if bleeding from a enter the marine environment Coastal beaches are among the wound, leave the shiny jewelry at every day, making marine debris most treasured natural re- home, and avoid brightly-colored one of the most widespread pol- sources in the nation, but beach swimwear. lution problems facing the closures or advisories caused by world's oceans and waterways. -National Ocean Service