Corporate Research and Consultation Team
Quarterly Economic Briefing: November 2012 Published: 28 November 2012 Issue number 4
This briefing presents a broad overview of the economy in South Gloucestershire. It presents key economic information from a range of national and local sources including a selection of qualitative measures and a round up of local news and views. This quarterly briefing supplements the monthly Labour Market Briefing.
Some key findings for South Gloucestershire: • 77.3% of the working age population are in employment, higher than the national rate of 70.4% • The official unemployment rate is 5.9%, considerably lower than the national rate of 8.1% • In October 2012, 201 new small businesses started up in the district • The number of live applications on the council’s housing register stands at 8,234 • During the second quarter of 2012/13 the council (via a contract with South Gloucestershire Advice Consortium) helped residents to manage £2,070,363 of debt
Headline labour market indicators
July 2011 to June 2012 October 2012 2010 2011 Employment Unemployment Claimant count Labour Demand Earnings Total residents in Rate aged Total number Unemployment Number of Claimant Jobs Job density Average employment (aged 16 64 (%) unemployed Rate (%) claimants Rate (%) 16 64 (ratio) gross weekly 16+) (aged 16+) proportion of pay economically residents active South Gloucestershire 136,600 77.3 8,600 5.9 3,617 2.1 155,000 0.90 509.8 Bath and North East Somerset 86,900 72.0 5,800 6.2 2,368 2.0 97,000 0.82 479.5 Bristol 228,500 70.6 18,800 7.6 12,410 4.0 265,000 0.85 483.8 North Somerset 98,900 72.4 6,700 6.3 3,201 2.5 88,000 0.67 549.4
West of England 550,900 72.7 40,100 6.8 21,596 2.9 604,000 0.82 NA South West 2,514,700 73.6 167,600 6.2 84,997 2.6 2,706,000 0.82 473.4 England 24,497,300 70.4 2,148,100 8.1 1,270,722 3.8 26,295,000 0.78 507.6 Source: NOMIS (Annual Population Survey, Jobcentre Plus administrative system, Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings)
Employment levels
In the year to June 2012, 77.3% of South Gloucestershire’s working age population (those aged 16 64) were in employment. This is a slight increase on the rate reported in the last quarterly report (76.4%) and the local employment rate remains above the sub regional and national rates.
Proportion of working age population in employment
85
83
81
79
77 77.3%
75
73 72.7%
71
% of working age population age working %of 70.4% 69
67 Apr Jul 2007 Oct Jan Apr Jul 2008 Oct Jan Apr Jul 2009 Oct Jan Apr Jul 2010 Oct Jan Apr Jul 2011 2007 Mar Jun 2008 2007 2008 2008 Mar Jun 2009 2008 2009 2009 Mar Jun 2010 2009 2010 2010 Mar Jun 2011 2010 2011 2011 Mar Jun 2013 2008 Sep Dec 2009 Sep Dec 2010 Sep Dec 2011 Sep Dec 2012 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Bath and North East Somerset Bristol North Somerset South Gloucestershire West of England England
Source: NOMIS (ONS, Annual Population Survey)
Employment by sector
Approximately 30% of jobs in South Gloucestershire are within public administration, education and health sectors (SIC 2007 codes O Q), which is on a par with the national and sub regional averages. The banking, finance and insurance sectors (at 19%) and the distribution and hospitality industry (at 17.5%) were the second and third highest employment groups respectively during this reporting period.
Percentage breakdown of employment by major goup (SIC 2007): June 2011 - July 2012
1.2 13.6 6.2 17.6 7.9 19.0 29.9 4.2 South Gloucestershire
0. 1 9.1 6.5 16.8 9.3 19.3 31.8 5.4 West of England 1.3
1. 0 9.9 7.3 18.5 9.0 16.7 29.7 5.6 England 1.6
A: agriculture and fishing B,D,E: energy and water C: manufacturing F: construction G,I: distribution, hotels and restaurants H,J: transport and communications K N: banking, finance and insurance O Q: public admin. education and health R U: other services
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey – workplace analysis (NOMIS)
ONS: Model based unemployment rate - the official unemployment rate
From July 2011 to June 2012, the official unemployment rate in South Gloucestershire was 5.9% of the economically active population. This was the lowest rate of all the West of England authorities and is considerably lower than the rate for England (8.1%). The graph shows that the unemployment rate in South Gloucestershire has consistently remained below the national and sub regional averages.
Model based unemployment rate - proportion of economically active 9 8 8.1%
7 6.8% 6 5.9% 5 4 3 2 1 Proportion of economically active (%) active economically of Proportion 0 Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012
Bath and North East Somerset Bristol North Somerset South Gloucestershire West of England England
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey, Workplace analysis
Adult qualifications
Qualifications of working age residents 100 90.3% 88.6% 90 87.4% 85.6% 80.7% 81.6% 82.8% 80 75.2% 76.4% 74.3% 70.5% 69.5% 70 64.7% 60 57.7% 57.6% 57.9% 53.8% 52.4% 50 64) 64) 41.4% 42.2% 37.8% 40 35.1% 32.7% 29.3% 30
20 12.5% 9% 10.4% 10 7.4% 5.6% 5.8%
0 Proportion populationof resident (16- aged of area South Gloucestershire Bath and North East Bristol North Somerset West of England England Somerset NVQ4 and above NVQ3 and above NVQ2 and above NVQ1 and above No qualifications
Source: NOMIS ONS Annual population survey (December 2011)
The proportion of residents in South Gloucestershire who attained the equivalent of an NVQ Level 4 or above qualification increased from 28% in 2010 to 29.3% in 2011. This is lower than the rest of the West of England and the national figure. NVQ Level 3 or above skills are also lower in South Gloucestershire than the rest of the West of England, although slightly higher than across England.
NEETS – young people not in education, employment or training
In September 2012, the proportion 16 to 19 year olds who were classed as NEET stood at 5.9% (712 young people). This is an increase of 0.9% in the second quarter of 2012. The increase in the proportion of 16 19 year olds who are NEET during this period can be explained by a falling employment rate for young people. In addition to this, the trend each year shows the highest number in August and September while young people wait to commence school sixth form or college. The provisional figure for October 2012 of 5.1% (436 young people) suggests a continuation of this annual pattern.
Proportion of young people not in education, employment or training
7 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.9 6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.0 5 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 4 3.6 3.5 3
2
1
0 Proportion ofyoung people (%) Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Oct 08 Nov 08 Oct 09 Nov 09 Oct 10 Nov 10 Oct 11 Nov 11 Mar 08 Feb 09 Mar 09 Feb 10 Mar 10 Feb 11 Mar 11 Feb 12 Sep 08 Dec 08 Sep 09 Dec 09 Sep 10 Dec 10 Sep 11 Dec 11 Sep 12 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 May 08 May 09 May 10 May 11 May 12 ** Mar 12 ** ** Mar 12 Oct 12 Oct 12 Provisional figure ← 16 18 year olds → 16 19 year olds
Source: South Gloucestershire Council, Children and Young People Department via the local authority Client Caseload Information System CCIS
* The figures shown from March 2012 are not comparable to those preceding this which measured 16 18 year olds only.
Small business start ups
In South Gloucestershire 201 new small businesses started up in October 2012.
According to the data from a BankSearch survey, there was 1.7% fewer business start ups during the first ten months of this year compared with the corresponding period last year.
South Gloucestershire accounted for 4.9% of all start ups across the South West.
In October 2012, across all the English districts the average number of starts was 96.
Small business Limited Other Start- Commercial Sole Traders Not For Profit Total start-ups Companies ups Enterprises
October 2012 93 68 15 176 25 201
Kings Chase saw the most business start ups, The top three industries (illustrated below) accounted followed by Emersons Green. Pilning and Severn for 64.7% of the starts. Beach and Parkwall saw the fewest.
Top 3 industries October 2012
Real estate, professional services & 59 support activities Recreational, personal & 47 community service Construction 24
Source: BankSearch, 2012
Housing
House Price Index – September 2012
House Price Index Average house price (£) Annual change
South Gloucestershire 272.4 £177,934 2.6% England and Wales 261 £162,561 0.3%
Source: Land Registry: October 2012
Average house price and sales volumes
The average house price in South Gloucestershire has remained fairly static over the last quarter. Sales volumes for June 2012 and July 2012 were 261 and 300 respectively. South Gloucestershire average house price and sales volumes 250,000 500 450 200,000 400 350 150,000 300 250 100,000 200 Sales volume 150
Average houseprice (£) houseprice Average 50,000 100 50 0 0 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Oct 08 Nov 08 Oct 09 Nov 09 Oct 10 Nov 10 Oct 11 Nov 11 Feb 08 Mar 08 Feb 09 Mar 09 Feb 10 Mar 10 Feb 11 Mar 11 Feb 12 Mar 12 Sep 08 Dec 08 Sep 09 Dec 09 Sep 10 Dec 10 Sep 11 Dec 11 Sep 12 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 May 08 May 09 May 10 May 11 May 12
Average Price (£) Sales Volume
Source: Land Registry: October 2012 Live applications on the South Gloucestershire housing register
In October 2012, there were 8,234 live applications on the Live applications on the South Gloucestershire Housing Register South Gloucestershire housing 12,000 register. The graph shows that since April 2012, there has been 10,000 a reduction in the number of 8,234 applicants on the register. Whilst 8,000 the overall number has decreased, the number of new 6,000 applications received per month has remained high. The reduction 4,000 in the overall number can be of applicantsNumber attributed to a recent policy 2,000 change. During April, the council amended the HomeChoice 0 lettings policy, so that Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jun 09 Jan 10 Jun 10 Jan 11 Jun 11 Jan 12 Jun 12 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Oct 09 Nov 09 Oct 10 Nov 10 Oct 11 Nov 11 Oct 12 Feb 10 Mar 10 Feb 11 Mar 11 Feb 12 Mar 12 Sep 09 Dec 09 Sep 10 Dec 10 Sep 11 Dec 11 Sep 12 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 May 09 May 10 May 11 applications are cancelled if a May 12 household has not bid during the preceding 12 months. Source: South Gloucestershire Council, Community Care & Housing
Housing benefit and council tax benefit claims in South Gloucestershire
It is currently taking 31 days to process new housing benefit and/or council tax benefit claims and the caseload continues to increase.
Accepted homelessness applications in South Gloucestershire
The number of households Accepted homelessness applications in South Gloucestershire approaching the council with housing problems continues to 30 be high although the number of 25 homeless duties accepted during the last three months 20 has reduced slightly when compared with the same period 15 in 2011. The HomeChoice team continues to work closely with 10 9 households approaching the applicants of Number service and aims to prevent 5 homelessness wherever possible. The main cause of 0 homelessness remains Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Oct 09 Nov 09 Oct 10 Nov 10 Oct 11 Nov 11 Mar 09 Feb 10 Mar 10 Feb 11 Mar 11 Feb 12 Mar 12 Sep 09 Dec 09 Sep 10 Dec 10 Sep 11 Dec 11 Sep 12 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 May 09 May 10 May 11 households being asked to May 12 leave properties in the private Source: South Gloucestershire Council, Community Care & Housing rented sector.
Inward investment
In October 2012, the council’s South Gloucestershire inward investment property economic development team enquiries recieved was handling 178 live enquiries 35 32 from businesses about 30 23 available business property in 25 21 20 20 19 20 16 17 16 17 161616 the district. 15 14 14 15 12 13 12 12 15 1111 10 11 10 11 8 9 8 9 8 8 Between July and October 10 7 2012, there were 66 new 5 Number of Number enquiries of enquiries compared to 45 in the 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 10 1 11 11 11 11 1 1 r-1 - -1 -10 -10 -10 -1 -1 r- - -1 -1 -11 -1 -1 -12 -12 -12 l-1 previous quarter. g ct v- c b g- p ct v-11c n b r-12pr-12y- n u ct-12 Jul e Jul a e u J ug-ep-12 Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10ApMay-10Jun Au Sep-10O No De Jan-F MarApMayJun Au Se O No De J F Ma A Ma J A S O
Source: South Gloucestershire Council, Economic Development Team
Debt advice
Debt management is measured via a council contract with South Gloucestershire Advice Consortium. The measure relates to the number of South Gloucestershire clients advised and is a snapshot of the overall need . A total of 780 residents were advised on welfare benefit and debt issues during the second quarter of 2012/13.
During the period £2,070,363, of debt was managed. This is recorded as the total debt that the client owed at the start of the case, which was ‘under control’ at the end of the process.
Source: South Gloucestershire Council, Safer and Stronger Division
Crime
Crime has been falling in South Gloucestershire for the last five years and current crime rates are lower than both the national and regional averages. Acquisitive crime has not increased as a result of the current economic situation and due to a combination of dealing with local offenders and crime prevention initiatives there were 171 fewer serious acquisitive crimes during the last twelve months than there were in the twelve months previous. However, levels of Acquisitive crime have been slightly higher over the last three months and this trend will be monitored on an ongoing basis.
Recorded crime in South Gloucestershire
1800 All crime Acquisitive crime 1600
1400
1200 1078 1000
800
600 Number of offences Number 400 311 200
0
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 09 0 0 10 10 10 1 10 11 11 11 11 1 G* 1 12 12 l 0 v 1 1 v 10 l 1 t 11 v 1 1 pr b pr 11 n p 11 c IN b pr 12 ul un 0Ju Oct 0 Jul ug Oct 1 Ju e O J A May J Aug 09Sep No Dec Jan Fe Mar 1Apr May Jun 10 A Sep No Dec 10Jan Feb 11Mar A May 1Ju Aug S No Dec 11ISS Fe Mar 12A May Jun 12 Aug Sep M
DATA * 12 n Ja Note: Acquisitive crime includes burglary, robbery and vehicle crime (Source Avon and Somerset Police)
Key headlines from news and local press (September – November 2012) Please note: This is a summary of local press coverage. The press clippings are uncorroborated and are shown only to inform readers of local economic media coverage.
TWO DEFENCE GIANTS DISCUSS SUPER MERGER Western Daily Press 13/09/12 Defence giant BAE Systems last night confirmed it was in talks about a potential merger with Airbus aircraft manufacturer EADS to create the world’s biggest aerospace and defence company. M&S MOVES INTO TOWN’S EXPANDING SHOPPING The Post 13/90/12 CENTRE Bosses at Yate Shopping Centre have announced that three new tenants will be arriving at the complex by next spring. The work will start next month on a new 50,000 sq ft extension directly opposite the new Tesco Extra in East Walk. The new building will be home to a branch of M&S Simply Food, a Costa cafe and a new Sports Direct store. CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM FOR ONE OF WORLDS BIGGEST Evening Post 14/09/12 FIRMS The deal to merge aviation companies EADS and BAE made headline news across the world yesterday. The proposed multi billion pound merger between Airbus owner EADS and BAE could be great news for Bristol’s vitally important aviation sector, according to industry experts. NEW BASE IS RIGHT FIT FOR OUR AMBITIOUS PLANS The Post 19/09/12 Financial service firm Jelf has relocated its head office to the newly refurbished Hillside Court in Chipping Sodbury. PLANS TO KNOCK DOWN FORMER PUB REJECTED Western Daily Press 21/09/12 Councillors have welcomed a planning inspectorate decision against the development of an old pub. South Gloucestershire council refused permission to demolish the Highwayman pub on Hill Street in Kingswood and replace it with flats and a small shop. FINAL WHISTLE AS SPORTSWEAR FIRM CALLS IN The Post 25/09/12 RECEIVERS Dozens of jobs in the Bristol area are under threat after the recession claimed its latest victim on the high street. JJB Sports, which has branches in Abbey Wood and Cabot Circus, announced yesterday it was calling in the receivers. A third shop in the Avon Meads Retail Park has already closed its doors. BAE MERGER COULD FALL FOUL OF GLOBAL The Post, WDP 25/09/12 WRANGLES Doubt has been cast on a multi billion pound merger going ahead which would see two of Bristol’s biggest firms joining forces. As reported, defence firm BAE Systems has been talking to Airbus parent company EADS about a £30bn merger. But BAE yesterday warned it would walk away from the deal if it threatened its contracts in America with the US Defence Department. TIDAL TURBINE FIRM IS SOLD Western Daily Press 27/09/12 Tidal Generation Ltd (TGL) based in Bristol, has been sold for an undisclosed amount. Parent company Rolls Royce is expected to seal the deal with Alstom in the next few months. NO ORDINARY BANK – THIS IS AN M&S BANK The Post 01/10/12 Marks & Spencer has now opened one of its first bank branches at Cribbs Causeway. The in store bank is one of the first in the country. SPORTS STORES CLOSE WITH LOSS OF 40 JOBS The Post 02/10/12 Two JJB Sports stores in the Bristol area have closed, with the loss of around 40 jobs. Administrators were called in last week by the sportswear firm. There were high hopes that rival firm Sports Direct would step in and rescue the ailing company but that failed to materialise in Bristol. Sports Direct has bought around 20 of the firm’s store but 133 branches including the two in Bristol Cabot Circus and Abbey Wood are to close. SCIENCE PARK ALREADY SPARKLING IN FIRST YEAR The Post 03/10/12, WDP 04/10/12 Bristol’s Science Park is already way ahead of schedule even though it has been open for just 12 months. The centre has just celebrated its first anniversary with the unveiling of a new solar powered sculpture. The first phase of the Science Park is more than half full. Just one year after opening, space at the park has been snapped up twice as fast as anticipated with over three quarters of the first phase already let. SUPERMARKET TO BE BUILT ON FORMER KLEENEZE The Post 05/10/12 SITE A single storey Tesco store will be built on a derelict patch of land which was the former Kleeneze site in Hanham, despite a long campaign by local residents to stop it. STATION PLAN FOR PARK-AND-RIDE The Post 05/10/12 Plans to create a railway halt at the Portway park and ride have been given the go ahead. The £500,000 project will see a platform created on the Severn Beach line. DEFENCE FIRMS’ MERGER DASHED WDP, The Post 11/10/12 A multi million pound merger between two of the West Country’s biggest companies, BAE Systems and EADS parent firm Airbus, has collapsed with unions accusing the German government of scuppering the deal. CHAIN STORE MASSACRE CONTINUES Western Daily Press 18/10/12 Retail chains are shutting shops at a rate of more than 30 a day across the UK, new research reveals. Figures show that nationwide retailers closed 32 stores a day in July and August, up from 20 a day in the first six months of 2012. The South East was the worst affected in the first half with 215 net closures, followed by the West Midlands with 160 and the South West with 129. THORNBURY PLANNING PROPOSAL GETS GO AHEAD BBC News 23/10/12 FOR 500 HOMES Outline planning permission has been granted for 500 new homes on fields to the north of Thornbury. The fields totalling 64 acres (26 hectares) are located near Thornbury Castle. HITACHI BUYS UK NUCLEAR PROJECT FROM E.ON AND BBC News 30/10/12, WDP, The Post 31/10/12 RWE The UK’s nuclear expansion plans have been boosted after Japan’s Hitachi signed a £700m deal giving it rights to build a new generation of power plants. Hitachi is to buy Horizon Nuclear Power, which was intending to build reactors on existing sites at Wylfa, Anglesey and Oldbury, near Bristol. It means the West could see a second major development following Hinkley Point in Somerset.
APRIL’S LOCAL RELOCATION Western Daily Press 08/11/12 Insurance business April UK has relocated its headquarters to Almondsbury Business Centre. The company has taken 5,544 sq ft of space on the ground and first floors of a property renamed April House on a ten year lease. NHS DIRECT JOBS THREAT The Post 12/11/12 More than 100 Bristol employees at NHS Direct face an uncertain future. Unison claimed NHS Direct was shutting 24 out of 30 call centres, including its base in Almondsbury with the loss of 106 jobs, but the NHS Direct boss rubbished the trade union’s claim. FANCY SETTLING DOWN IN A HOUSE FIT FOR A The Post 19/11/12 HOBBIT? A homeowner with a taste for something different can snap up their very own hobbit on the outskirts of Bristol. A former underground reservoir, which already has full planning permission for an underground home complete with three bedrooms, has been put up for sale to the highest bidder somewhere in the region of between £250,000 and £300,000. The land is on a hillside on the outskirts of the South Gloucestershire village of Alveston. DEAL SIGNED FOR MASSIVE NEW HOUSING ESTATE The Post 21/11/12 A property deal has been signed which is likely to see 2,000 new homes built in Emersons Green. Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey has agreed to buy 150 acres of land between the Avon Ring Road and the M4 motorway in South Gloucestershire. THE BILLION POUND BUSINESS The Post 21/11/12 Out sourcing firm Mitie has seen revenues pass the £1bn mark for the first time ever this week. The Bristol based company is one of the fastest growing in the south west and is in the FTSE 250.
Disclaimer: This report has been For further information contact: prepared by South Gloucestershire Council’s Corporate Research and The Corporate Research and Consultation Team: Consultation Team, with all reasonable skill, care and diligence. We accept no 01454 863990 / 01454 863862, email responsibility of any nature to any third [email protected] parties to whom this profile, or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies on the report at their own risk.