Corporate Research and Consultation Team

Quarterly Economic Briefing: November 2012 Published: 28 November 2012 Issue number 4

This briefing presents a broad overview of the economy in South Gloucestershire. It presents key economic information from a range of national and local sources including a selection of qualitative measures and a round up of local news and views. This quarterly briefing supplements the monthly Labour Market Briefing.

Some key findings for South Gloucestershire: • 77.3% of the working age population are in employment, higher than the national rate of 70.4% • The official unemployment rate is 5.9%, considerably lower than the national rate of 8.1% • In October 2012, 201 new small businesses started up in the district • The number of live applications on the council’s housing register stands at 8,234 • During the second quarter of 2012/13 the council (via a contract with South Gloucestershire Advice Consortium) helped residents to manage £2,070,363 of debt

Headline labour market indicators

July 2011 to June 2012 October 2012 2010 2011 Employment Unemployment Claimant count Labour Demand Earnings Total residents in Rate aged Total number Unemployment Number of Claimant Jobs Job density Average employment (aged 1664 (%) unemployed Rate (%) claimants Rate (%) 1664 (ratio) gross weekly 16+) (aged 16+) proportion of pay economically residents active South Gloucestershire 136,600 77.3 8,600 5.9 3,617 2.1 155,000 0.90 509.8 Bath and North East Somerset 86,900 72.0 5,800 6.2 2,368 2.0 97,000 0.82 479.5 228,500 70.6 18,800 7.6 12,410 4.0 265,000 0.85 483.8 North Somerset 98,900 72.4 6,700 6.3 3,201 2.5 88,000 0.67 549.4

West of England 550,900 72.7 40,100 6.8 21,596 2.9 604,000 0.82 NA South West 2,514,700 73.6 167,600 6.2 84,997 2.6 2,706,000 0.82 473.4 England 24,497,300 70.4 2,148,100 8.1 1,270,722 3.8 26,295,000 0.78 507.6 Source: NOMIS (Annual Population Survey, Jobcentre Plus administrative system, Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings)

Employment levels

In the year to June 2012, 77.3% of South Gloucestershire’s working age population (those aged 1664) were in employment. This is a slight increase on the rate reported in the last quarterly report (76.4%) and the local employment rate remains above the subregional and national rates.

Proportion of working age population in employment

85

83

81

79

77 77.3%

75

73 72.7%

71

% of working age population age working %of 70.4% 69

67 Apr Jul 2007 Oct Jan Apr Jul 2008 Oct Jan Apr Jul 2009 Oct Jan Apr Jul 2010 Oct Jan Apr Jul 2011 2007Mar Jun 2008 2007 2008 2008Mar Jun 2009 2008 2009 2009Mar Jun 2010 2009 2010 2010Mar Jun 2011 2010 2011 2011Mar Jun 2013 2008 Sep Dec 2009 Sep Dec 2010 Sep Dec 2011 Sep Dec 2012 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Bath and North East Somerset Bristol North Somerset South Gloucestershire West of England England

Source: NOMIS (ONS, Annual Population Survey)

Employment by sector

Approximately 30% of jobs in South Gloucestershire are within public administration, education and health sectors (SIC 2007 codes OQ), which is on a par with the national and subregional averages. The banking, finance and insurance sectors (at 19%) and the distribution and hospitality industry (at 17.5%) were the second and third highest employment groups respectively during this reporting period.

Percentage breakdown of employment by major goup (SIC 2007): June 2011 - July 2012

1.2 13.6 6.2 17.6 7.9 19.0 29.9 4.2 South Gloucestershire

0. 1 9.1 6.5 16.8 9.3 19.3 31.8 5.4 West of England 1.3

1. 0 9.9 7.3 18.5 9.0 16.7 29.7 5.6 England 1.6

A: agriculture and fishing B,D,E: energy and water C: manufacturing F: construction G,I: distribution, hotels and restaurants H,J: transport and communications KN: banking, finance and insurance OQ: public admin. education and health RU: other services

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey – workplace analysis (NOMIS)

ONS: Model based unemployment rate - the official unemployment rate

From July 2011 to June 2012, the official unemployment rate in South Gloucestershire was 5.9% of the economically active population. This was the lowest rate of all the West of England authorities and is considerably lower than the rate for England (8.1%). The graph shows that the unemployment rate in South Gloucestershire has consistently remained below the national and subregional averages.

Model based unemployment rate - proportion of economically active 9 8 8.1%

7 6.8% 6 5.9% 5 4 3 2 1 Proportion of economically active (%) active economically of Proportion 0 Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012

Bath and North East Somerset Bristol North Somerset South Gloucestershire West of England England

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey, Workplace analysis

Adult qualifications

Qualifications of working age residents 100 90.3% 88.6% 90 87.4% 85.6% 80.7% 81.6% 82.8% 80 75.2% 76.4% 74.3% 70.5% 69.5% 70 64.7% 60 57.7% 57.6% 57.9% 53.8% 52.4% 50 64) 64) 41.4% 42.2% 37.8% 40 35.1% 32.7% 29.3% 30

20 12.5% 9% 10.4% 10 7.4% 5.6% 5.8%

0 Proportion populationof resident (16- aged of area South Gloucestershire Bath and North East Bristol North Somerset West of England England Somerset NVQ4 and above NVQ3 and above NVQ2 and above NVQ1 and above No qualifications

Source: NOMIS ONS Annual population survey (December 2011)

The proportion of residents in South Gloucestershire who attained the equivalent of an NVQ Level 4 or above qualification increased from 28% in 2010 to 29.3% in 2011. This is lower than the rest of the West of England and the national figure. NVQ Level 3 or above skills are also lower in South Gloucestershire than the rest of the West of England, although slightly higher than across England.

NEETS – young people not in education, employment or training

In September 2012, the proportion 16 to 19 year olds who were classed as NEET stood at 5.9% (712 young people). This is an increase of 0.9% in the second quarter of 2012. The increase in the proportion of 1619 year olds who are NEET during this period can be explained by a falling employment rate for young people. In addition to this, the trend each year shows the highest number in August and September while young people wait to commence school sixth form or college. The provisional figure for October 2012 of 5.1% (436 young people) suggests a continuation of this annual pattern.

Proportion of young people not in education, employment or training

7 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.9 6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.0 5 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.1 4 3.6 3.5 3

2

1

0 Proportion ofyoung people (%) Jul08 Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jun08 Jun09 Jun10 Jun11 Jun12 Apr08 Apr09 Apr10 Apr11 Apr12 Oct08 Nov08 Oct09 Nov09 Oct10 Nov10 Oct11 Nov11 Mar08 Feb09 Mar09 Feb10 Mar10 Feb11 Mar11 Feb12 Sep08 Dec08 Sep09 Dec09 Sep10 Dec10 Sep11 Dec11 Sep12 Aug08 Aug09 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 May08 May09 May10 May11 May12 ** Mar12 ** ** Mar12 Oct12 Oct12 Provisional figure ← 16 18 year olds → 1619 year olds

Source: South Gloucestershire Council, Children and Young People Department via the local authority Client Caseload Information SystemCCIS

* The figures shown from March 2012 are not comparable to those preceding this which measured 1618 year olds only.

Small business start ups

In South Gloucestershire 201 new small businesses started up in October 2012.

According to the data from a BankSearch survey, there was 1.7% fewer business startups during the first ten months of this year compared with the corresponding period last year.

South Gloucestershire accounted for 4.9% of all startups across the South West.

In October 2012, across all the English districts the average number of starts was 96.

Small business Limited Other Start- Commercial Sole Traders Not For Profit Total start-ups Companies ups Enterprises

October 2012 93 68 15 176 25 201

Kings Chase saw the most business startups, The top three industries (illustrated below) accounted followed by Emersons Green. Pilning and Severn for 64.7% of the starts. Beach and Parkwall saw the fewest.

Top 3 industries October 2012

Real estate, professional services & 59 support activities Recreational, personal & 47 community service Construction 24

Source: BankSearch, 2012

Housing

House Price Index – September 2012

House Price Index Average house price (£) Annual change

South Gloucestershire 272.4 £177,934 2.6% England and Wales 261 £162,561 0.3%

Source: Land Registry: October 2012

Average house price and sales volumes

The average house price in South Gloucestershire has remained fairly static over the last quarter. Sales volumes for June 2012 and July 2012 were 261 and 300 respectively. South Gloucestershire average house price and sales volumes 250,000 500 450 200,000 400 350 150,000 300 250 100,000 200 Sales volume 150

Average houseprice (£) houseprice Average 50,000 100 50 0 0 Jul08 Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12 Jun08 Jun09 Jun10 Jun11 Jun12 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Apr08 Apr09 Apr10 Apr11 Apr12 Oct08 Nov08 Oct09 Nov09 Oct10 Nov10 Oct11 Nov11 Feb08 Mar08 Feb09 Mar09 Feb10 Mar10 Feb11 Mar11 Feb12 Mar12 Sep08 Dec08 Sep09 Dec09 Sep10 Dec10 Sep11 Dec11 Sep12 Aug08 Aug09 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 May08 May09 May10 May11 May12

Average Price (£) Sales Volume

Source: Land Registry: October 2012 Live applications on the South Gloucestershire housing register

In October 2012, there were 8,234 live applications on the Live applications on the South Gloucestershire Housing Register South Gloucestershire housing 12,000 register. The graph shows that since April 2012, there has been 10,000 a reduction in the number of 8,234 applicants on the register. Whilst 8,000 the overall number has decreased, the number of new 6,000 applications received per month has remained high. The reduction 4,000 in the overall number can be of applicantsNumber attributed to a recent policy 2,000 change. During April, the council amended the HomeChoice 0 lettings policy, so that Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12 Jun09 Jan10 Jun10 Jan11 Jun11 Jan12 Jun12 Apr09 Apr10 Apr11 Apr12 Oct09 Nov09 Oct10 Nov10 Oct11 Nov11 Oct12 Feb10 Mar10 Feb11 Mar11 Feb12 Mar12 Sep09 Dec09 Sep10 Dec10 Sep11 Dec11 Sep12 Aug09 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 May09 May10 May11 applications are cancelled if a May12 household has not bid during the preceding 12 months. Source: South Gloucestershire Council, Community Care & Housing

Housing benefit and council tax benefit claims in South Gloucestershire

It is currently taking 31 days to process new housing benefit and/or council tax benefit claims and the caseload continues to increase.

Accepted homelessness applications in South Gloucestershire

The number of households Accepted homelessness applications in South Gloucestershire approaching the council with housing problems continues to 30 be high although the number of 25 homeless duties accepted during the last three months 20 has reduced slightly when compared with the same period 15 in 2011. The HomeChoice team continues to work closely with 10 9 households approaching the applicants of Number service and aims to prevent 5 homelessness wherever possible. The main cause of 0 homelessness remains Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jun09 Jun10 Jun11 Jun12 Apr09 Apr10 Apr11 Apr12 Oct09 Nov09 Oct10 Nov10 Oct11 Nov11 Mar09 Feb10 Mar10 Feb11 Mar11 Feb12 Mar12 Sep09 Dec09 Sep10 Dec10 Sep11 Dec11 Sep12 Aug09 Aug10 Aug11 Aug12 May09 May10 May11 households being asked to May12 leave properties in the private Source: South Gloucestershire Council, Community Care & Housing rented sector.

Inward investment

In October 2012, the council’s South Gloucestershire inward investment property economic development team enquiries recieved was handling 178 live enquiries 35 32 from businesses about 30 23 available business property in 25 21 20 20 19 20 16 17 16 17 161616 the district. 15 14 14 15 12 13 12 12 15 1111 10 11 10 11 8 9 8 9 8 8 Between July and October 10 7 2012, there were 66 new 5 Number of Number enquiries of enquiries compared to 45 in the 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 10 1 11 11 11 11 1 1 r-1 - -1 -10 -10 -10 -1 -1 r- - -1 -1 -11 -1 -1 -12 -12 -12 l-1 previous quarter. g ct v- c b g- p ct v-11c n b r-12pr-12y- n u ct-12 Jul e Jul a e u J ug-ep-12 Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10ApMay-10Jun Au Sep-10O No De Jan-F MarApMayJun Au Se O No De J F Ma A Ma J A S O

Source: South Gloucestershire Council, Economic Development Team

Debt advice

Debt management is measured via a council contract with South Gloucestershire Advice Consortium. The measure relates to the number of South Gloucestershire clients advised and is a snapshot of the overall need . A total of 780 residents were advised on welfare benefit and debt issues during the second quarter of 2012/13.

During the period £2,070,363, of debt was managed. This is recorded as the total debt that the client owed at the start of the case, which was ‘under control’ at the end of the process.

Source: South Gloucestershire Council, Safer and Stronger Division

Crime

Crime has been falling in South Gloucestershire for the last five years and current crime rates are lower than both the national and regional averages. Acquisitive crime has not increased as a result of the current economic situation and due to a combination of dealing with local offenders and crime prevention initiatives there were 171 fewer serious acquisitive crimes during the last twelve months than there were in the twelve months previous. However, levels of Acquisitive crime have been slightly higher over the last three months and this trend will be monitored on an ongoing basis.

Recorded crime in South Gloucestershire

1800 All crime Acquisitive crime 1600

1400

1200 1078 1000

800

600 Number of offences Number 400 311 200

0

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 09 0 0 10 10 10 1 10 11 11 11 11 1 G* 1 12 12 l0 v 1 1 v10 l1 t11 v 1 1 pr b pr11 n p11 c IN b pr12 ul un0Ju Oct0 Jul ug Oct1 Ju e O J A May J Aug09Sep No Dec Jan Fe Mar1Apr May Jun10 A Sep No Dec10Jan Feb11MarA May1Ju Aug S No Dec11ISS Fe Mar12A May Jun12 Aug Sep M

DATA * 12 n Ja Note: Acquisitive crime includes burglary, robbery and vehicle crime (Source Avon and Somerset Police)

Key headlines from news and local press (September – November 2012) Please note: This is a summary of local press coverage. The press clippings are uncorroborated and are shown only to inform readers of local economic media coverage.

TWO DEFENCE GIANTS DISCUSS SUPER MERGER Western Daily Press 13/09/12 Defence giant BAE Systems last night confirmed it was in talks about a potential merger with Airbus aircraft manufacturer EADS to create the world’s biggest aerospace and defence company. M&S MOVES INTO TOWN’S EXPANDING SHOPPING The Post 13/90/12 CENTRE Bosses at Yate Shopping Centre have announced that three new tenants will be arriving at the complex by next spring. The work will start next month on a new 50,000 sq ft extension directly opposite the new Tesco Extra in East Walk. The new building will be home to a branch of M&S Simply Food, a Costa cafe and a new Sports Direct store. CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM FOR ONE OF WORLDS BIGGEST Evening Post 14/09/12 FIRMS The deal to merge aviation companies EADS and BAE made headline news across the world yesterday. The proposed multi billion pound merger between Airbus owner EADS and BAE could be great news for Bristol’s vitally important aviation sector, according to industry experts. NEW BASE IS RIGHT FIT FOR OUR AMBITIOUS PLANS The Post 19/09/12 Financial service firm Jelf has relocated its head office to the newly refurbished Hillside Court in Chipping Sodbury. PLANS TO KNOCK DOWN FORMER PUB REJECTED Western Daily Press 21/09/12 Councillors have welcomed a planning inspectorate decision against the development of an old pub. South Gloucestershire council refused permission to demolish the Highwayman pub on Hill Street in Kingswood and replace it with flats and a small shop. FINAL WHISTLE AS SPORTSWEAR FIRM CALLS IN The Post 25/09/12 RECEIVERS Dozens of jobs in the Bristol area are under threat after the recession claimed its latest victim on the high street. JJB Sports, which has branches in Abbey Wood and , announced yesterday it was calling in the receivers. A third shop in the Avon Meads Retail Park has already closed its doors. BAE MERGER COULD FALL FOUL OF GLOBAL The Post, WDP 25/09/12 WRANGLES Doubt has been cast on a multibillionpound merger going ahead which would see two of Bristol’s biggest firms joining forces. As reported, defence firm BAE Systems has been talking to Airbus parent company EADS about a £30bn merger. But BAE yesterday warned it would walk away from the deal if it threatened its contracts in America with the US Defence Department. TIDAL TURBINE FIRM IS SOLD Western Daily Press 27/09/12 Tidal Generation Ltd (TGL) based in Bristol, has been sold for an undisclosed amount. Parent company RollsRoyce is expected to seal the deal with Alstom in the next few months. NO ORDINARY BANK – THIS IS AN M&S BANK The Post 01/10/12 Marks & Spencer has now opened one of its first bank branches at Cribbs Causeway. The instore bank is one of the first in the country. SPORTS STORES CLOSE WITH LOSS OF 40 JOBS The Post 02/10/12 Two JJB Sports stores in the Bristol area have closed, with the loss of around 40 jobs. Administrators were called in last week by the sportswear firm. There were high hopes that rival firm Sports Direct would step in and rescue the ailing company but that failed to materialise in Bristol. Sports Direct has bought around 20 of the firm’s store but 133 branches including the two in Bristol Cabot Circus and Abbey Wood are to close. SCIENCE PARK ALREADY SPARKLING IN FIRST YEAR The Post 03/10/12, WDP 04/10/12 Bristol’s Science Park is already way ahead of schedule even though it has been open for just 12 months. The centre has just celebrated its first anniversary with the unveiling of a new solar powered sculpture. The first phase of the Science Park is more than half full. Just one year after opening, space at the park has been snapped up twice as fast as anticipated with over threequarters of the first phase already let. SUPERMARKET TO BE BUILT ON FORMER KLEENEZE The Post 05/10/12 SITE A singlestorey Tesco store will be built on a derelict patch of land which was the former Kleeneze site in Hanham, despite a long campaign by local residents to stop it. STATION PLAN FOR PARK-AND-RIDE The Post 05/10/12 Plans to create a railway halt at the Portway parkandride have been given the goahead. The £500,000 project will see a platform created on the Severn Beach line. DEFENCE FIRMS’ MERGER DASHED WDP, The Post 11/10/12 A multimillion pound merger between two of the West Country’s biggest companies, BAE Systems and EADS parent firm Airbus, has collapsed with unions accusing the German government of scuppering the deal. CHAIN STORE MASSACRE CONTINUES Western Daily Press 18/10/12 Retail chains are shutting shops at a rate of more than 30 a day across the UK, new research reveals. Figures show that nationwide retailers closed 32 stores a day in July and August, up from 20 a day in the first six months of 2012. The South East was the worst affected in the first half with 215 net closures, followed by the West Midlands with 160 and the South West with 129. THORNBURY PLANNING PROPOSAL GETS GO AHEAD BBC News 23/10/12 FOR 500 HOMES Outline planning permission has been granted for 500 new homes on fields to the north of Thornbury. The fields totalling 64acres (26 hectares) are located near Thornbury Castle. HITACHI BUYS UK NUCLEAR PROJECT FROM E.ON AND BBC News 30/10/12, WDP, The Post 31/10/12 RWE The UK’s nuclear expansion plans have been boosted after Japan’s Hitachi signed a £700m deal giving it rights to build a new generation of power plants. Hitachi is to buy Horizon Nuclear Power, which was intending to build reactors on existing sites at Wylfa, Anglesey and Oldbury, near Bristol. It means the West could see a second major development following Hinkley Point in Somerset.

APRIL’S LOCAL RELOCATION Western Daily Press 08/11/12 Insurance business April UK has relocated its headquarters to Almondsbury Business Centre. The company has taken 5,544 sq ft of space on the ground and first floors of a property renamed April House on a ten year lease. NHS DIRECT JOBS THREAT The Post 12/11/12 More than 100 Bristol employees at NHS Direct face an uncertain future. Unison claimed NHS Direct was shutting 24 out of 30 call centres, including its base in Almondsbury with the loss of 106 jobs, but the NHS Direct boss rubbished the trade union’s claim. FANCY SETTLING DOWN IN A HOUSE FIT FOR A The Post 19/11/12 HOBBIT? A homeowner with a taste for something different can snap up their very own hobbit on the outskirts of Bristol. A former underground reservoir, which already has full planning permission for an underground home complete with three bedrooms, has been put up for sale to the highest bidder somewhere in the region of between £250,000 and £300,000. The land is on a hillside on the outskirts of the South Gloucestershire village of Alveston. DEAL SIGNED FOR MASSIVE NEW HOUSING ESTATE The Post 21/11/12 A property deal has been signed which is likely to see 2,000 new homes built in Emersons Green. Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey has agreed to buy 150 acres of land between the Avon Ring Road and the in South Gloucestershire. THE BILLION POUND BUSINESS The Post 21/11/12 Outsourcing firm Mitie has seen revenues pass the £1bn mark for the first time ever this week. The Bristolbased company is one of the fastest growing in the south west and is in the FTSE 250.

Disclaimer: This report has been For further information contact: prepared by South Gloucestershire Council’s Corporate Research and The Corporate Research and Consultation Team: Consultation Team, with all reasonable skill, care and diligence. We accept no 01454 863990 / 01454 863862, email responsibility of any nature to any third [email protected] parties to whom this profile, or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies on the report at their own risk.