july 2009 . Vol 2 . Issue 7

The Status of Conflict in functioning regimes of their own. As a result, these regions consist of a the Southern and Central patchwork of local authorities composed Regions of of factions allied to the TFG with varying degrees of affiliation, and factions of the By Michael A. Weinstein armed opposition that engage in tactical cooperation. These “local authorities” since april 2009, the southern and central function in cities, towns and villages regions of Somalia have been drawn into within the regions to maintain security a more generalized civil conflict between (such as the removal of extortionate the country’s internationally-recognized roadblocks) and implement forms of Transitional Federal Government Shari`a law that vary according to the (TFG) and its loosely affiliated allies, ideological proclivities of the factions and a coalition of armed opposition in control who consult with clan elders groups composed primarily of the and local clerics. There are also regional transnational Islamic revolutionary authorities with varying degrees of group al-Shabab1 and the Islamist- effectiveness. nationalist Hisbul Islamiyya (HI).2 Figure 1. Map of central and southern Somalia. The broadening of the conflict to the At the micro-level, political conditions regions from its epicenter in Somalia’s the opposition on May 19, 2009. are exceedingly complex, with capital has disrupted Moreover, the armed opposition overlapping and cross-cutting relations relatively fixed power configurations has encircled Mogadishu by gaining among clans, clerics, and political that had crystallized beginning in dominance to the north in Middle groups. The many and varied actors late 2007. This has created a highly Shabelle and to the south in Lower evince greater and lesser degrees of fluid situation in which projections Shabelle. coordination and contention with one about the nature of a more stable another, depending on whether one balance of forces can only be tentative. This article will examine the recent turn faction or coalition dominates an area, of events in Somalia’s regions before or whether the balance of power is more Overall, the armed opposition to the identifying the current balance of power equal. Through the spring of 2009, TFG currently has the upper hand. The in the country. the southern and central regions have opposition’s Islamic administrations in become increasingly contested, making the south are secure. In the center, the Recent Turn of Events any assessment of the balance of power 3 Hiraan region is no longer a stronghold Within the context of post-independence in each one provisional and problematic. of TFG President Shaykh Sharif Shaykh Somalia, the southern and central Ahmad’s allies in the Islamic Courts. regions belong to the territories under The political picture in the southern The Galgadud region is dominated by the the nominal authority of the TFG. and central regions, which resembles traditional Sufi Islamist organization The TFG is presently confined on the the fragmented conditions of the Ahlu-Sunna wal-Jama (ASWJ), which ground to precincts of Mogadishu that period between the fall of the Siad is only a TFG ally of convenience. The are protected by a 4,300-strong African Barre dictatorship in 1991 and the region, which is Shaykh Union Peacekeeping Mission (AMISOM). Islamic Courts revolution in 2006, is Sharif’s base, moved into the column of Although the TFG’s juridical authority most directly a result of the Ethiopian theoretically extends through the occupation of southern and central whole of post-independence Somalia, Somalia that occurred at the end of 2006 the northwestern and northeastern 1 During the period of the Courts movement’s domi- and ousted the Courts from control of regions are respectively under the de nance in 2006, al-Shabab was the movement’s military most of the regions. Almost immediately, facto control of the self-declared and spearhead and championed an irredentist program of factions in the Courts began regrouping unrecognized Republic of Somaliland incorporating ethnic Somali populations in and launched an insurgency against and the provisionally autonomous into an Islamic emirate encompassing all ethnic Somali the occupation that was centered state of , both of which have populations and governed by a Salafist interpretation of in Mogadishu and achieved limited insulated themselves with relative Shari`a law. success and an effective stalemate. The success from the conflict to the south. 2 Hisbul Islamiyya is an Islamic party founded in Janu- resistance movement altered its strategy ary 2009. It is composed of four factions opposed to decisively in autumn 2007, shifting its The southern4 and central5 regions Shaykh Sharif’s new govern­ment: the hard-line Asmara focus to the regions, where Ethiopian lack both the presence of the TFG and wing of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia led forces were either absent or stretched by Shaykh Hassan Dahir Aweys; Harakat Ras Kamboni, thin. The opposition’s aim was to take a southern Somali Isla­mist group affiliated with Shaykh 3 Somalia gained independence in 1960. territory, establish administrations Hassan “Turki,” who has had ties with al-Shabab; the 4 The southern regions consist of Bay, , , in cities, towns and localities, and Islamic Front of Jabhatul Islamiyya, an insurgent group Middle and Lower Jubba, and . eventually encircle Mogadishu, formed in 2007 to oppose Ethiopian troops in Somalia; 5 The central regions consist of Hiraan, Galgadud, Mid- where the insurgency continued. and a little-known, clan group called Anole and dle Shabelle and , the latter of which has an au- based in Kismayo. It has largely allied itself to al-Shabab, tonomous administration that has not yet been drawn Through 2008, the insurgency although it is a distinct organization. into the wider conflict. increasingly made advances and gained july 2009 . Vol 2 . Issue 7 momentum. This was especially true in forces proved to be weak. In response and Galgadud has continued to be the south, to the point that when Ethiopia to the opposition’s gains, the TFG contested. The southern regions remain terminated its occupation at the end of has attempted to mobilize any groups dominated by the armed opposition, but that year, the insurgency was dominant opposed to a takeover by the opposition, they are being challenged by forces of in the southern regions. In the south, al- including former warlords, religious former TFG administrations that have Shabab, which had separated itself from groups fronting for clan militias, figures massed on the border with Ethiopia in the Courts movement, was strongest. In in former TFG administrations in the Gedo and Bakool, and issue continuous two of the central regions—Hiraan and regions and their clan militias, and threats to attack the current Islamist Middle Shabelle—factions of the Islamic frontline states Ethiopia and Kenya. administrations. Ethiopia is widely Courts held sway. In all regions, other The mobilization of elements allied by reported to have set up bases in Hiraan factions were present, disputing or convenience to the TFG has triggered and Galgadud to monitor and contain collaborating with the major players. a counter-mobilization by the armed the armed opposition, and to have opposition, resulting in the current crossed into Bakool.6 Ethiopia has At the end of 2008, the most powerful fluid and volatile political conditions. also harbored former warlords from Courts factions in the central regions the regions, such as Barre Hirale Shire allied themselves with the movement’s The Current Balance of Power in the Regions from Gedo and Yusuf Dabaged from former executive chairman, Shaykh Shifting week by week, the current Hiraan, and has trained their forces and Sharif, who became president of the balance of power in the regions is forces loyal to the pro-Sharif Islamic internationally-supported TFG in determined by the status of forces of Courts.7 In the deep south, Kenya December 2008 through a power- pro-TFG factions and the factions of has moved soldiers to the borders of sharing agreement with the old TFG the armed opposition. In each region, the Gedo and Lower Jubba regions, in which his faction was incorporated the elements composing the contending triggering threats and counter-threats. into the transitional government. The coalitions and their relative strength vary. faction of the Courts movement led by its The strategic Hiraan region is former shura chairman, Shaykh Hassan Most generally, there is a marked currently the most unstable, with its Dahir Aweys, which later entered the difference between the central and capital Beledweyne divided between HI coalition, rejected any deal with the southern regions. The former— the Islamic Courts and HI, and many TFG and turned to armed opposition, including Hiraan on the west, Galgadud of its towns under the control of al- forming tactical alliances with al- in the center, and Middle Shabelle Shabab. In an attempt to reverse the Shabab. With the factions of the original to the east—were, before the armed momentum of the armed opposition, Courts movement divided between those the TFG’s minister of internal security who accepted and those who rejected “The timing of the and close ally of Shaykh Sharif, Colonel power-sharing, the stage was set for Omar Hashi Adan, returned to his conflict between the two coalitions. opposition’s May offensive home region to mobilize forces on the in Mogadishu was based border with Ethiopia at the end of May. During the first half of 2009, the Having crossed into Hiraan, Hashi’s conflict in the southern and central on its judgment that the forces were unable to make headway, regions mutated from resistance to TFG might receive military and he was killed in a suicide bombing the Ethiopian occupation and growing on June 18.8 Since then, al-Shabab has control of territory by factions of the support from external taken the town of Jalalaqsi, and ongoing Courts movement, to confrontation powers and international mediation efforts mounted by Hashi’s between those factions willing to replacement, Mohamed Daqane Elmi, participate in the new TFG, if only organizations that would have failed.9 On July 2, the security expediently, and those that abjure shift the balance of power.” chief of the Islamic Courts in Hiraan, participation. The situation took a Shaykh Ibrahim Yusuf, defected to drastic turn in May 2009 when the HI, stating that he could no longer armed opposition to the TFG launched “work with the government” after it a major offensive in Mogadishu that opposition’s May 2009 offensive, appealed to foreign troops for help.10 succeeded in taking most of the city. The mainly in the hands of Islamic Courts offensive was halted only by the wall of forces affiliated with Shaykh Sharif, or heavy weapons deployed by AMISOM clan militias contested by al-Shabab in 6 “Ethiopian Forces Conduct Operations in Central So- forces protecting key infrastructure and the case of Galgadud. In contrast, the malia,” Radio Simba, June 25, 2009; “Ethiopian Troops government installations. latter, comprising the southwestern Allowed in by Somali Government – Official,” Radio Bay, Bakool, and Gedo regions—and the Shabelle, June 23, 2009. The timing of the opposition’s May southeastern Middle and Lower Jubba, 7 “Ethiopia Training Fighters Loyal to Moderate Somali offensive in Mogadishu was based and Lower Shabelle regions—were Islamist Group,” Midnimo.com, July 1, 2009. on its judgment that the TFG might dominated by the armed opposition. 8 The identity of the suicide bomber is still disputed. receive military support from external 9 “Somalia: MPs Say They Have Talks With Islamist Or- powers and international organizations Through the spring and into the summer ganizations in Hiran Region,” Shabelle Media Network, that would shift the balance of power. of 2009, the grip of the pro-TFG forces June 24, 2009. Resistance to the offensive by pro-Sharif in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle has 10 “Senior Somali Islamist Figure Quits Pro-Government factions of the Courts movement and TFG been broken by the armed opposition, Group,” Radio Simba, July 2, 2009. july 2009 . Vol 2 . Issue 7

In the more isolated Galgadud region, the Islamist administrations in the This has left the TFG struggling to clan militias under the umbrella of southwest have strengthened security retain control of the capital, while the ASWJ, which has allied itself by establishing checkpoints. Shaykh the opposition—al-Shabab, HI and its loosely with the TFG, have succeeded Mukhtar Robow, a leader of al-Shabab supporters—continue to consolidate in marginalizing al-Shabab, but have in Bay and Bakool, said on June 23: “We and contest control over the central and not been able to eliminate it as a have issued an order to kill [Muhammad southern regions. Uncertainty prevails fighting force. ASWJ, which represents Ibrahim] Habsade.”14 The new al-Shabab and changes will depend on myriad traditional Somali Islam, is suspicious of commander leading the Bay and Bakool factors. Most importantly, changes Shaykh Sharif, who has not committed administrations, Shaykh Mahad Umar to the current balance of power will to its interpretation of the religion. In Abdikarim, said on June 30 that his depend on the willingness of external May, ASWJ political spokesman Kaliph forces would continue to fight the TFG.15 governments to intervene militarily Mahamud Abdi said that his group was on behalf of the TFG. Changes also prepared to support the TFG on the More insulated, the southeastern depend on the relative ability of broad condition that Shaykh Sharif promised regions, which include Lower and coalitions, each composed of factions to stop cooperating with foreign Islamic Middle Jubba and Lower Shabelle, have pursuing their own agendas and often ideologies, especially Salafism.11 more secure Islamist administrations. A at cross-purposes with one another, to coalition of opposition groups composed hold together and coordinate efforts. The TFG has suffered its greatest loss of al-Shabab, Harakat Ras Kamboni (led in the Middle Shabelle region. Middle by Shaykh Hassan Turki) and the Anole Dr. Michael A. Weinstein is Professor Shabelle borders the Banadir region, militia are in control of southern and of Political Science at Purdue which encompasses Mogadishu. central Somalia’s second largest city University. He received his Ph.D. from Moreover, it is Shaykh Sharif’s home and capital of Lower Jubba, the strategic Case Western Reserve University. region and has provided his major base port of Kismayo. Tensions on the border of support. On May 19, al-Shabab forces, with Kenya, which are heightened by commanded by Shaykh Abdirahman Nairobi’s support for the TFG and hints Hasan Husayn, captured the capital of that it will intervene, have triggered Middle Shabelle, , and have since threats by the Kismayo administration gained control of most of the region’s to attack targets in Kenya.16 To the north, districts. Fighting has continued as pro- the Lower Shabelle region is controlled Sharif Islamic Courts forces attempt to by al-Shabab, which holds the port of oust al-Shabab administrations, but the Merka, and HI, which is dominant in Courts have not yet been successful.12 Afgoe, abutting the Banadir region.

In contrast to the central regions that Conclusion are actively contested, the Islamist A review of the status of the general administrations in the south, which are conflict in southern and central Somalia controlled by various factions of the specified by region reveals a fluid armed opposition or alliances among situation marked by precarious balances them, have not yet faced military attack. of power, factionalization, loose Nevertheless, they are threatened by coalitions and, at present, tentative forces on the border with Ethiopia that intervention by external powers. Each are led by former warlord Barre Hirale, region has its own particular power whose home region is Gedo, and the configuration that favors the TFG or the former TFG administrations of Bakool armed opposition. and Bay, led by former Bay commissioner Hasan Mohammed Bikole, who has said The armed opposition consummated that their forces would include “foreign its strategy adopted in late 2007 of troops.”13 The power figure behind encircling Mogadishu by gaining Bikole is former warlord Mohammed dominance to the north in Middle Ibrahim Habsade, the current minister Shabelle and to the south in Lower of ports and sea transport of the TFG. In Shabelle. In addition, both Middle and response to the heightened threat level, Lower Shabelle do not border external powers and, as a result, are relatively 11 Scott Baldauf, “After Five Days of Assault by Better- insulated from external intervention. Armed Al Shabab Militiamen, Pro-Government Fighters Have Apparently Begun to Retreat,” The Christian Science 14 “Somali Islamist Group Threatens to Kill Cabinet Min- Monitor, May 12, 2009. ister Over Remarks,” Garowe Online, June 23, 2009. 12 “Islamic Courts, Al-Shabab Battle in Southern Soma- 15 “Somalia: Hardline Islamist Official Vows to Continue lia Town,” Shabelle Media Network, June 25, 2009. Fighting Government,” Shabelle Media Network, June 13 “Somali Government to Use Foreign Troops in Oust- 30, 2009. ing Al-Shabab from Regions,” Allpuntland.com, June 29, 16 “Militia to Target Kenya and Ethiopia,” The Nation, 2009. June 30, 2009.