Rail freight in (South) Wales: How resilient is it?

Andrew Potter, University [email protected] Re-distributed Manufacturing for the Resilient, Sustainable City • We will study the impact of the move to smaller-scale and local manufacturing with a focus on a city - Bristol - and its region, including Cardiff. • The regions have strengths in high value manufacturing, aerospace, defence, silicon design and creative industries. • There is also increased policy collaboration between the two regions • We will be able to study from multiple perspectives: engineering, economic, geographic, supply chain, resilience, sustainability.

• By focusing on logistics flows, a better picture of the nature of the products moved into, within and out of a region emerges, and the wider geography of this Presentation Overview

• Rail freight in Wales – what data exists?

• What freight moves in South Wales? And where?

• How resilient is the industry to future changes? Presentation Overview

• Rail freight in Wales – what data exists?

• What freight moves in South Wales? And where?

• How resilient is the industry to future changes? Rail Freight Data for Wales

Source: Monitoring the NTP 2012 Rail Freight Data for Wales

Source: Network Rail Wales Route Study 2015 Source Data for our Research

• Data is collected from http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk – Provides real time information on train schedules – As well as timings, also includes detail on motive power and trailing loads – Shows all trains that are timetabled, with real time data for those that actually run – Raw data is taken from Network Rail • Nature of products based on knowledge of rail services and other Internet based sources • Covers 13/7/15 to 19/7/15 Some Comments on the Data

• Only freight trains that have run are included – This includes empty movements – This excludes engineering trains and light loco movements • Some trains pick up and drop off on the way – E.g. Margam to Tees Yard, which can change load at Llanwern • Some products feed through a ‘hub and spoke’ type network – E.g. Ford go to/from Newport, and use ‘trunking’ to reach London • Weights based on trailing loads – Wagon and cargo combined (not locomotive) – A maximum rather than the actual amount on a wagon Presentation Overview

• Rail freight in Wales – what data exists?

• What freight moves in South Wales? And where?

• How resilient is the industry to future changes? Rail Freight – Overview

The dataset contains the details of 417 trains, with a total trailing load of circa 569,000t

Bristol Cardiff Combined Origin Number of trains 35 86 116 Trailing Load (000t) 33.7 88.3 115.9 Destination Number of trains 34 87 115 Trailing Load (000t) 56.1 146.7 196.8 Origin and Destination Number of trains 0 69 75 Trailing Load (000t) 0 83.4 89.4 Transit Number of trains 74 127 112 Trailing Load (000t) 98.6 188.5 167.0 Rail Freight – Overview

Trailing weight Average trailing No. of trains (000t) weight (t) Aggregates 24 30.7 1270 Automotive 15 10.6 710 Coal 75 93.4 1250 Intermodal 34 46.0 1350 Metals 174 255.8 1470 Mixed 23 34.4 1500 Petroleum 21 32.4 1540 Timber 4 3.6 900 Grand Total 370 506.9 1370 Where do the freight trains go?

Towards Hereford Towards Gloucester 28 5 19 74 44

28 Towards 74 15 Cardiff 77 City Region

19 Total Number of trains/wk 50 1-20 trains 15 Through 21-40 trains Severn 41-60 trains 61-80 trains Tunnel Location Freight Yard O D kT kT Customer Location Product(s) Freight Locations Cwmbargoed O D Alex Dock Jn 19.4 6 O D Coal 22 20.8 Mixed Tower O D East Usk 22 6 O D Coal 7.2 5.4 Coal

Llanwern O D 25.9 47.1 Barry Docks Metals O D 6.5 6.6 Intermodal Birdport Ford Bridgend O D O D 3.1 11 2.9 2.9 Metals Automotive Newport Port O D 10.5 18 Coal, Metals

Aberthaw Cardiff Port Celsa Pengam Wentloog O D O D O D O D O D 14.4 57.2 4 3.4 12.0 24.3 4.8 4.8 16.2 16.6 Coal Agg., Petro Metals Aggregates Intermodal UK Distribution

Mossend Origin = from point on map to CCR O D 1.8 Destination = from CCR to point on map Metals Tyne Dock O D 0.6 Metals Port Clarence Hope O D O D 2 0.4 0.6 Petroleum Coal Masborough Warrington Lincoln O D O D O D Kingsbury O D 0.6 6.9 3.7 4 4.8 O D 1.8 0.8 Automotive Metals Metals 1.6 Metals Bescot Metals O D Handsworth 0.7 2.2 Beeston O D Mixed O D Chaddeston 1.8 0.6 1.8 0.6 Metals O D Metals 2.8 Round Oak Metals O D Saltley 0.6 Daventry Wembley O D Metals O D O D 3.6 1.4 8.6 8.6 1.4 1.2 Metals Onllwyn Intermodal Intermodal O D Angerstein Wf 13.2 1.2 O D Margam Coal 0.6 O D Aggregates Tilbury 64.3 28.6 O D Coal, Metals Avonmouth 0.8 O D Metals 4.2 1.8 Dollands Moor Agg.,., CoalO O D 1.2 St Blazey Intermodal O D 0.8 Colnbrook Swindon Didcot Crawley Mixed Exeter O D O D O D O D O D O D 7.9 7.6 1.8 3 4.8 9 8 0.6 5.4 3.6 0.7 Intermodal Aggregates Metals Mixed Aggregates Metal,Mix UK Distribution

Road Rail Leaving Entering Leaving Entering North n/a n/a 1 2 East North 131.52 117 0.6 West Yorks & 19 33 8.5 10.9 Humber East 26.98 24 10 15.6 Midlands West 111.08 91 4.2 8.3 Midlands East of 22.86 27 0.8 England London n/a 8 1.2 2.6 South 28.92 28 22.8 18.7 East South 122.1 130 8.1 10.8 West 000t/wk; road for all of Wales, rail = trailing weight Presentation Overview

• Rail freight in Wales – what data exists?

• What freight moves in South Wales? And where?

• How resilient is the industry to future changes? What is resilience?

• The ability of a ‘system’ to withstand ‘shocks’

• Nature of system may evolve over time

• ‘Output’ returns to a positive trajectory What could affect rail freight resilience?

Road Sea transport Range of transport Modal Steel Services providers competition Industrial Intermodal Operators change Biomass Coal Factors affecting Freight Electrification resilience Policy strategy Capacity Attitude Infrastructure Line to freight Severn Sidings closure Passenger Tunnel for empty Services Long term Terminals wagons growth Metro IEP Timetable Changes in the steel industry

• Steel accounts for almost 50% of rail freight in SE Wales • Tata Steel account for over 80% of this – Extensive UK wide network – Moving materials for further processing and finished goods • Celsa Steel create almost all the remaining demand – Mostly moving scrap steel to South Wales • Clearly the pressures in the industry will impact on demand for rail freight services A precedent from elsewhere…

• The closure of Ravenscraig in 1992 accounted for 40% of rail freight in Scotland

• However, the volume of 16 14 tonnes lifted in Scotland 12 has recovered 10 8 6 4 2

Freight Lifted (Million t) Lifted Freight 0

1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08 2009-10 2011-12 Growth from Intermodal

• Intermodal has been a key growth area in Scotland • As a comparison – Scotland, around 8 intermodal trains each way daily – Wales, 2 intermodal trains each way daily • Could Wales grow its intermodal services? Growth from Intermodal

• Current services – Daily services to Southampton and Daventry – Bristol sees daily services to Felixstowe and Tilbury • Domestic retail distribution likely to be limited by location of Regional Distribution Centres • Felixstowe and London Gateway would be natural growth areas • But will there be suitable train paths? – Steel trains tend to head towards Birmingham/North East – , IEP timetable, capacity around London South Wales Metro

• The Metro will see substantial changes to passenger services on the rail network • This has a number of potential conflicts with rail freight operations South Wales Metro and rail freight

South Wales Metro Implications for Rail Freight Potential light rail operations Will the solution be compatible with coal on Valley Lines (North) movements? Will it matter by the time the scheme is implemented? Development of services on Competition for Barry Docks and Bridgend Vale of line traffic, however currently relatively few trains per day. More services and stations on While ‘revenue’ freight requires around 1 the South Wales mainline path per hour in each direction (assuming 24 hours access), when other non-passenger trains are included there are potential capacity issues. Enhanced services on Potential conflicts for capacity, and also Abergavenny line operational issues for trains heading towards Hereford based on current layout South Wales Metro and rail freight

• But these issues then link to resilience issues – Changes in industry – Policy attitudes – Capacity So how resilient is rail freight?

• To some extent, there is resilience in the rail freight industry – Infrastructure improvements – Multiple operators – Reasonable mix of commodities • However, there are also challenges to that resilience – Conflicts with passenger operations – Reliance on particular commodities/customers – Potential challenges in developing new customers • Operators, infrastructure operators and policy makers can help to mitigate these Any Questions?

Andrew Potter, Cardiff University [email protected]

Rail freight resilience in CCR

Potential changes Impact on rail freight in CCR Resilience implications

Medium term Reduction in the number of freight trains, Frees up capacity, particularly on Valley future of coal particularly within the CCR Lines where significantly more passenger mining services are desired Medium term Reduction in the number of freight trains, Frees up capacity, particularly on Valley future of particularly within the CCR Lines where significantly more passenger Power Station services are desired Long term future of Significant reduction in rail freight Releases significant capacity for Port Talbot requirements passenger/freight use. Significant impact on logistics operations. Long term future of Less significant risk to rail freight volumes Removes some conflicting moves and Llanwern as many trains come from Port Talbot. could releases some capacity. Opportunities for rail connected terminal for other freight Growth of Generate new traffic flows, although extra Requires extra train paths, although may intermodal terminals might be needed be constrained by availability of terminals in the long term Growth of service Creates a greater pressure for the Freight potentially marginalised to off economy movement of people, leading to tension peak/night time workings, which don’t between passenger and freight services align with customer requirements. Rail freight resilience in CCR

Potential changes Impact on rail freight in CCR Resilience implications

Development of Cardiff Some impact on coal flows and Limited, except for coal terminals, although Metro services – Valley availability of paths impact dependent upon final solution. Lines (North) Development of Cardiff Competition for paths, impacting Needs a solution that can accommodate rail Metro – Valley Lines on Aberthaw, Barry Docks and freight. Ford traffic less affected as runs at (South) Ford Bridgend night. Development of Cardiff Competition for paths, particularly Tension between passenger and freight Metro – other routes on South Wales Main Line. aspirations. Extra capacity likely to be needed Number and nature of movements to maintain existing freight operations. unsuited to evening/night time focused operations Electrification – Slightly enhanced gauge for trains, Gives more options for traction, although most infrastructure opportunities for electric haulage trains would still need diesel until line to Birmingham electrified. Electrification – More frequent and faster services Conflicts for longer distance flows to SE and services to London leading to pressure on ports. Some diversion opportunities, but apart GWML from Southampton, these would add time