ELECTION 2014 • NOVEMBER 4 KANSAS Sen. Mark Begich (D) Sen. Pat Roberts (R) vs. Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Greg Orman (I)

BATTLEH H H H H H H H H H H H Begich Sullivan FOR THE Roberts Orman » The storyline: Begich barely won » The storyline: Roberts has lost in 2008 against Sen. , who favor with his home state voters for was damaged by an indictment just spending too much time in Washing- weeks before Election Day. Republi- ton, and not enough back home. But cans have expanded their edge in the questions about which party Orman state since then, and Sullivan will get a will support has voters wary. And Rob- last-minute visit from Mitt Romney. erts recently got a boost from popular » Who’s up? Most polls have Sullivan former Sen. Bob Dole. ahead, but some give Begich a shot. SENATE » Who’s up? Orman, but narrowing. ARKANSAS BY JASON SNYDER • BH MEDIA NEWS SERVICE KENTUCKY Sen. Mark Pryor (D) Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) vs. ix years ago, Democrats expanded their Senate majority thanks in large part to the voter vs. Rep. Tom Cotton (R) Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) enthusiasm spurred by then-Sen. Barack Obama’s historic campaign for the White House. S Typical tossup Senate seats in Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina swung the Democrats’ way behind a wave of support from left-leaning and independent voters. Six years later, the Senate map heading into the 2014 midterm elections paints a much dif- Pryor Cotton ferent, and much more red, picture. The Democrats who surged to power in 2008 because of McConnell Grimes » The storyline: This was always » The storyline: Minority leader going to be a heavy lift for Pryor, on the Obama’s popularity are now being weighed down by the president’s slumping approval. McConnell is in the unique position ballot for the first time since casting Longtime moderate Democrats who control seats in traditionally Republican states like of potentially winning the seat that his vote for Obamacare in deep red Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana are finding the comforts of incumbency being tested by their will ultimately make him majority Arkansas. Cotton has battled some leader. He can’t seem to shake Grimes, likability problems in a state that voted right-leaning constituents’ frustration with the president. though, who calls herself a Clinton for Romney, 61-37, in 2012. Signs are Add to those headwinds the retirements of popular Democratic senators in Iowa, Montana, Democrat. Both Clintons have made voters may be cozying up to him. multiple stops to support her. » Who’s up? Cotton, comfortably. South Dakota and West Virginia, and Republicans enter Election Night primed for a Senate » Who’s up? McConnell, consistently. takeover that has eluded them the past two cycles. COLORADO Here’s a look at the 10 tossup seats that will determine which party controls the Senate for the LOUISIANA Sen. Mark Udall (D) final two years of Obama’s presidency. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) vs. Rep. Cory Gardner (R) vs. Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) The race to 50 ... or 51 Short of a major Election Night surprise, control of the U.S. Senate will come down to 10 tossup races, where the latest polling has these states’ candidates separated by single digits. Republicans need to win six of the Udall Gardner tossups in order to control the 51 seats they need to take the majority. Democrats need to win five of the Landrieu Cassidy » The storyline: Udall is being tossups to retain the majority, thanks to a tie-breaking vote in the hands of Vice President Joe Biden. » The storyline: With three legitimate accused of focusing too much on candidates in the race and rules re- Gardner’s stance on abortion, which THE TOSSUPS quiring a candidate get to 50 percent, some say is the reason behind the this likely is headed to a runoff Dec. 6. Republican’s gains in the polls. Udall, In this deep red state, Landrieu is fight- though, is counting on a boost from ALASKA ARK. COL. GA. IOWA KAN. KY. LA. N.H. N.C. ing off ties to the president. A runoff the state’s new voting laws, which have favors Cassidy, who is being weighed made voting easier — even by mail. down by a tea party-backed candidate. » Who’s up? Gardner in all polls. DEMOCRATIC SEATS (two uncontested independents caucus with Democrats) » Who’s up? Landrieu, but not at 50.

GEORGIA 34 UNCONTESTED 11 SAFE NEED 5 NEW HAMPSHIRE David Perdue (R) DEM SAFE SEATS: DEL., HAWAII, ILL., MASS., MICH., MINN., N.J., N.M., ORE., R.I., VA. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs. Michelle Nunn (D) REPUBLICAN SEATS vs. Scott Brown (R)

32 UNCONTESTED 13 SAFE NEED 6 GOP SAFE SEATS: ALA., IDAHO, MAINE, MISS., MONT., NEB., OKLA., S.C., S.D., TENN., TEXAS, W. VA., WYO. Perdue Nunn Shaheen Brown » The storyline: Nunn is using her Where they’re leaning » The storyline: Brown is find- popular last name in Georgia (she’s ing some momentum behind voter the daughter of former senator Sam If polling is accurate, Republican candidates are ahead in seven of the 10 tossup races, one more than what concerns over Ebola. Shaheen is riding Nunn) and some outsourcing com- is needed to gain control of the Senate. Democrats need to hold on to their advantages in New Hampshire, her favorability among New Hampshire ments from Perdue to turn a safe red North Carolina and Kansas, then find two other states now leaning Republican to retain their majority. voters and her contention that Brown, state into a tossup. The winner will fill who served as Massachusetts senator the seat being vacated by Sen. Saxby just two years ago, views this Senate Chambliss (R). A runoff is likely. Safe Republican seat as a “consolation prize.” » Who’s up? Perdue hanging on. Safe Democrat » Who’s up? Shaheen, but tightening. “Safe”: In politics, nothing’s for sure, IOWA but polling shows candidates in these NORTH CAROLINA states with double-digit leads. Rep. Bruce Braley (D) Sen. Kay Hagan (D) vs. Jodi Ernst (R) Tossup leaning Republican vs. Thom Tillis (R) Tossup leaning Democrat Tossup leaning Independent “Tossup”: Candidates in these states are separated in polls by just a few points, if that. Braley Ernst Hagan Tillis » The storyline: The retirement Not up this cycle » The storyline: Hagan is pound- of longtime Sen. Tom Harkin gives ing Tillis with negative ads in a state Republicans a chance to steal. Ernst is WILD RACE IN SOUTH DAKOTA: POSSIBLE RUNOFFS: THE NEW, BLUE VIRGINIA?: Democratic that’s turned against Obama since his running as a gun-shooting, hog-cas- Democrats were encouraged by polling For those expecting to Sen. Mark Warner maintains a lead in the surprise win here in 2008. Tillis, the trating Iowa farm girl looking to shake in early October that showed a surge by know on Election Night polls over Ed Gillespie, although it’s nar- face of an unpopular state legislature, up Washington. She faces a three-term independent candidate Larry Pressler. which party will control rowed recently. A Warner win would give is pounding Hagan for her support of congressman trying to tag her as too Speculation that Democrats turned the Senate, not so fast. Democrats their sixth straight statewide Obama. Libertarian Sean Haugh, also extreme for Iowa, citing her support of against their own candidate in the race Key races in Georgia and victory (president, governor, lieutenant gov- on the ballot, could be a wild card. a state “personhood” amendment. caused infighting that has resulted in a Louisiana could be head- ernor, attorney general, two Senate races) » Who’s up? Hagan was up, but Tillis » Who’s up? Ernst by a hair. resurgence by Republican Mike Rounds. ing to runoffs this winter. in the once reliably red commonwealth. is rallying and some polls are tied.

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