MINISTRY OF

EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OF ӨКМ THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC Agency on Hydrometeorology

Bishkek, 2015 #1 Newsletter Current climate status and change in the Kyrgyz Republic Statement page 1 Zarylbek Itibaev / Director of Kyrgyzhydromet In 2015 the Agency on Hydrometeo- ganizations. In this connection I would Introduction rology under the Ministry of Emergency Sit- like to express thanks to UNDP Sustainable uations of the Kyrgyz Republic has started Development Programme for support re- page 3 issuing informational and analytical News- lated to improvement of meteorological letter on the regular basis. The Newsletter observations and data analysis system Climatic should be the source of true and reliable based on innovative methodologies. characteristics information where the most part of mate- rials will be based on the data collected by Meteorological reports submitted by page 5 Kyrgyzhydromet. Kyrgyzhydromet on the regular basis consist of valuable tactic information and already Following by the slogan of World Mete- are actively used in decision-making pro- Air orological Day 2015 — “Climate Knowledge cesses. But, the climate knowledge will temperature for Climate Action” we devoted the first be used for development of strategies and Newsletter’s issue specifically to the plans ensuring climate resilience, disasters page 7 climate change and analysis of meteoro- risks mitigation and climate-oriented man- logical observations in the country under agement of country’s economic sectors Atmospheric the common topic “Current status and for the medium— and long–term perspec- Precipitation climate change in the Kyrgyz Republic”. tives. I sincerely hope that present issue of official Kyrgyzhydromet’s Newsletter page 17 Preparation of this document in the devoted to the climate change will make same time is contribution to the prepa- its important contribution to this process. Synoptic ration of the Kyrgyz Republic’s position for conditions the forthcoming 21st Session of the Con- ference of the Parties to the United Na- for weather tions Framework Convention on Climate conditions Change (COP21) that is planned to be formation held by the end of 2015 in Paris. In this connection, within this publication we page 24 tried to emphasize the analysis of tradi- tional meteorological data, as well as to Extreme weather introduce new for Kyrgyzstan, but already events internationally recognized methods for climate change assessment, such as esti- page 26 mation and mapping of SPI (Standardized Precipitations Index) and introduction of News early warning mechanisms, etc. Most of these initiatives became feasible due to page 32 our joint activities with international or-

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 1 The Kyrgyz Republic: meteorological figures and facts for 2014. Due to specific physical and geographical conditions, climatic changes observed in the Kyrgyz Republic slightly differ from the global trends. According to the WMO statement on the status of the global climate (# 1152), 2014 has been ranked as the warmest year for the Earth since modern instrumental measurements began.

At that, 2014 for Kyrgyzstan took only the 28th place in the rating of the warmest years with temperature anomaly within the limits of climatological norm. In general, January and April were the warmest months; February and December were abnormal cold months in 2014 for Kyrgyzstan. Alternation of abnormal warm and abnormal cold months within the seasons did not cause significant seasonal temperature anomalies. Due to this reason the year was within the limits of climatological norm.

The average annual air temperature rising tendency for 1976–2014 by 0,18°C per each 10 years has been observing on the territory of Kyrgyzstan. This growth rate is in line with the global air temperature rise for the same period by 0,167°С for 10 years (according to the data of University of East Anglia). However, sea- sonal temperature change is not equable. The maximal temperature rise has been registered during spring and autumn periods by 0,42 and 0,24° C for 10 years accordingly. Sites with the highest rise of average annual temperature in Kyrgyzstan are such large cities as Jalal—Abad by 0,37°C for 10 years and Bishkek by 0,35°C for 10 years.

The total precipitations in Kyrgyzstan in 2014 were within the 96% norm. Winter period 2013/14 was enough wet; spring and summer periods – extremely droughty for the most part of areas. There were more precipitations against norm on the territory of Kyrgyzstan in autumn. The last winter period 2014/15 in comparison with winter period 2013/14 was more droughty, but compared to long—term annual average – within the limits.

In general, tendency of annual precipitation rise by 2,9% for 10 years has prevailed in Kyrgyzstan for period 1976–2014. At that, the maximal rise has been registered in summer and winter periods – by 7,0 and 5,2% for 10 years accordingly; insignificant rise – by 1,9% for 10 years has been registered in autumn. The total precipitation decrease has been registered in spring period – by 1,6% for 10 years. Annual precipitation regime change across the territory of Kyrgyzstan in general is similar – within 0...5% limits for 10 years. Notwithstanding common trend of precipitation rise, there are some sites with precipitation decrease – Suusamyr valley – by 4% for 10 years; Jalal—Abad Meteorological Station– by 2% for 10 years.

In 2014, 56 local dangerous weather events have been registered across the territory of Kyrgyzstan. The most number of strong fogs has been registered in Chui Oblast, and strong atmospheric precipitations – in Jalal—Abad Oblast and about half of all windsquall cases – in Issyk—Kul Oblast.

Meteorological drought caused by significant shortage of precipitations in comparison with norm and enough high temperature on the most part of country during long—term period (May—September) was the distinctive feature for 2014. Hydrological drought, when significant shortage of water resources affected water inflow to Toktogul water—storage reservoir (the lowest since 2008), has been registered alongside with meteorological drought.

Newsletter has been prepared by the Agency on Hydrometeorology under the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic under support of UNDP Programme “Environment Protection for Sustainable Development” and UNDP Project “Climate Risk Management in the Central Asia”.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the UN, UNDP, its programmes/projects or governments. The designations employed do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area, or its frontiers or boundaries.

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 2 Introduction

Assessment of current climate status and Hydrometeorology and Environmental Mon- its variability on the territory of Kyrgyzstan itoring and Russian Academy of Science” to- compatible with assessments of regional and gether with Scientific and Research Institution world climate centers is the priority task of ROSHYDROMET. toward improvement of climate servicing of the National Hydrometeorological Service of Newsletters on Climate status are planned Kyrgyzstan (Kyrgyzhydromet). to be issued annually, completing them with reliable results of new investigations. In 2015, Kyrgyzhydromet has started is- suing Newsletter on Climate Change Moni- Current issue includes climate conditions toring on the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. description observed since December 2013 Materials for Newsletter have been also pre- till February 2015 and historical data related pared in accordance with methodology for to variability and tendencies that took place preparation of summary annual report of In- starting from the middle 1970th of the last terstate Hydrometeorology Council on climate century. Also the analysis of SPI (Standardized status and change on the territories of states – Precipitations Index) territorial distribution CIS members, developed by the Federal State that currently is the most commonly used Budget Institution “Global Climate and Ecology index for draught monitoring based on global Institute of the Russian Federal Service for practice, is presented in Newsletter.

Authors’ team Zarylbek S. Itibaev — Director of the Agency on Hydrometeorology under the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic (Kyrgyzhydromet). Ryskeldi G. Asankhodzhaev — Deputy Director, Kyrgyzhydromet. Tatiana G. Chernikova — Head of Hydrometeorological Observations, Forecasting and Information Administration (HOFIA), Kyrgyzhydromet. Zoya A. Kretova — Chief of Meteorology and Climate Unit, HOFIA, Kyrgyzhydromet. Vladimir V. Grebnev — Coordinator of the UNDP “Environment Protection for Sustainable development” Programme. Yulia V. Radchenko — Specialist of Meteorology and Climate Unit, HOFIA, Kyrgyzhydromet. Makhbuba R. Kasymova — Chief of Meteorological Forecasts Unit. Elvira A. Omorova — Chief of Hydrological Forecasts Unit. Vera A. Kokulova — Senior Specialist of Meteorology and Climate Unit. Gulshat B. Kadyrova — Chief of Strategic Planning and Information-Analytical Work of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic. Bolot B. Sharshenov — Leading Specialist of Nature processes Observations Unit of Disasters Monitoring and Forecasting Department of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic.

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 3 Ms. Tatiana Chernikova, the Initial data and calculation methods Head of Hydro- meteorological The long—terms air temperature and precip- Interpolation. Geostatistics is widely used Observations, Forecasting and itations archive data of Kyrgyzhydromet’s me- for forecasting, analysis and presentation of Information teorological stations have been used for prepa- space—distributed information in many areas; Administration, ration of Bulletin. it also includes spatial statistics. It is possible Kyrgyzhydrom- to create interpolated surfaces for measured et is analyzing Norms of climate variables have been cal- data with assistance of geostatistical methods distribution of culated as average for basic period since 1961 air temperature that also will consist of uncertainty in the form anomalies till 1990 according to the recommendations of of forecast. In present Bulletin, geostatistical WMO. Anomalies have been determined as de- interpolation methods have been used for pre- viations of observed value from norm; precipi- cipitation anomalies and temperature anom- tation anomalies are considered as percentage alies mapping; precipitation and temperature ratio of precipitations fallen to norm value. anomalies trends; and also for Standardized Precipitations Index (SPI). Among different in- As climate change indicator the linear trend terpolation methods, the determined interpo- coefficient, determined based on the least lation method of radial basis functions has been square method, is used. The trend significance selected by final statistics. It creates surface measure is determination coefficient (R2) rep- that covers global trends within presented set resenting dispersion share from total dispersion of data outlining local changes. Data of Hy- (in percentage). Assessment of precipitations dromet observations have been used for above- and air temperature changes trends was done mentioned mapping (Figure 1.1.1). In general, based on data from operating stations by ap- average interpolation error for precipitation proximation of observation series linear function anomalies mapping has amounted to 0,298%, for with assistance of the least square method. temperature anomalies mapping — 0,015°С, for Values of meteorological variables anomalies precipitation anomalies trends — 0,004°С, and that are average for territory have been calcu- for SPI — 0,02. lated by averaging of anomalies data from me- teorological stations. Calculations for currently operating meteorological stations have been made for 1976–2014.

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 4 1. Climatic characteristics of Kyrgyzstan’s territory

Significant complexity of Kyrgyzstan’s Mid—mountain zone/belt (from 900–1200 up terrain — deep roughness, various expositions to 2000–2200 m) has typical moderate climate of mountain slopes for sun and airflows cause with warm summer and moderate —cool, exclusive variety of climate characteristics and enough stable snowy winter. Temperatures reg- determine well—defined vertical climate zoning. istered here are lower — summer is warm, the There are four notably different climatic zones/ temperature in July is 18–19°С, and winter is belts (Atlas of Kyrgyz SSR, 1987). enough cold –7–8°С below zero point in January and 3–5°С below zero point in December and Valley—piedmont zone/belt (from 500–600 up February. to 900–1200 m) is characterized by hot summer (up to 28°С), moderate cool and snowless winter At 1000–1500 m elevations the freeze—free with high precipitation deficit. This zone, es- period lasts 7 and more months. A cumulative pecially in Subfergana area has sub—tropical temperature is 3500–4000°С that under enough climate characteristics. In the upper part of rate of humidity creates favorable conditions valley—piedmont zone, the climate is warm and for various species of thermophytes. even hot, also with non—cold winter. Summer temperatures (July) have amounted to 20–25°С, In the upper part of mid—mountain zone, the winter temperatures (January) — 4–7°С below freeze—free period lasts about 6 months, and zero point. the cumulative temperature above zero point achieves 2700–3800°С. These are conditions of In this area, extremely high temperatures typical moderate climate. during summer could achieve 44°С and de- Figure 1.1.1 — crease to 27–30°С with elevation growth. Ab- High—mountain zone/belt ((from 2000–2200 Topographical solute minimum during winter are registered up to 3000–3500 m) is characterized by cool map of the Kyrgyz within 22–30°С below zero point and only in summer and cold, sometimes heavy snowy winter. Registered July temperature is 11– Republic with some areas it could be below –40°С (Toktogul, Kyrgyzhydromet’s Chui). A cumulative temperature is 3600– 16°С. Winter is long—term (November—March) with January temperatures of 8–10°С below observation points 4900°С in this zone. as of 2014.

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 5 The personnel of zero point, and during the rest cold months erage annual temperature values fall to -8°С Hydrometeorolog- -3—7°С below zero point. In the upper part (Ak-Sai, Chatyr-Kul, Tien-Shan, etc.). The ical Observations, of high—mountain zone, the freeze—free lowest air temperature (-53,6°С) has been Forecasting and Information period reduced to 3—4 months and less. And registered at the meteorological station Ak— Administration, at the higher elevations there could be no Sai (3135 m above sea level). Kyrgyzhydromet freeze-free period at all. I.e. freezing period is also characterized for the warmest summer During cold seasons, the influence of (in right to months. A cumulative temperature here terrain conditions is more evident due to cold left order) air stagnation and flow in hollow forms of Ms. T. Chernikova, amounts to 600–2600°С. Ms. R. Yangura- terrain. Since, January temperature (–21,5°С) zova, Nival zone/belt (from 3500 m and more) is in Suusamyr basin at the 2060 m altitude cor- Ms. M. Kasymova, characterized by sever, very cold climate with responds to the temperature at Tien—Shan hy- and 0–500°С cumulative effective temperature. drometeorological station located at the 3610 Ms. M. Ashakeeva This zone is the zone of snowfields, rocks, gla- m altitude. By summer, air in basin gradually are in room for ciers, and humidity accumulation. Even in the warms—up and temperature starts to comply the meteorologi- lowest art of this zone, the July temperatures with the average temperature values for this cal forecasting are not above 4–7°С, and January tempera- altitudinal belt. tures achieves 19–22°С below zero point. In climatic terms, Kyrgyzstan is charac- terized by wide variety. The warmest area is valley—piedmont zone/belt of Jalal—Abad Oblast, where the average annual air tem- perature is 11–13°С (Massy, Jalal—Abad). In high mountain regions of Kyrgyzstan, the av-

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 6 2. Air temperature

2.1 Changes of air temperature observed on the Earth and in Kyrgyzstan in 2014.

According to the statement of the World One of the largest drivers of year—to— Meteorological Organization (WMO # 1152), 2014 year changes in global temperature is the El Figure 2.1.1 – the global—average over land and sea—surface Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Years that Global annual temperature for 2014 was comparable to the start during an El Niño episode are typically average warmest years in the 165—year instrumental warmer than those that start with neutral ENSO temperature anomalies record. After consolidation of the leading conditions or a La Niña episode. Sea—surface (relative to international set of data, WMO has noted that temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific at the 1961–1990 difference in temperatures among the warmest the end of 2013 were only slightly cooler than average) for years is only some hundredths of a degree average, indicating that the global temperature 1950–2014. The Celsius. The global—average near—surface of 2014 would not be strongly influenced by El colouring of the bars indicates temperature for 2014 was 0 57 ± 0 09 °C above Niño or La Niña. The average temperature for whether a year the 1961–1990 average of 14 °C. It was 0 08 °C 2014 was above the long—term mean for most was classified above the average anomaly of 0,50 °C for the land areas. as an El Niño- past 10 years (2005–2014). influenced year Air temperatures averaged over land were (red), an ENSO- neutral year (grey) Nominally, the three other warmest years 0,88 ± 0,20 °C above the 1961–1990 average or a La Niña- are 2010 (0,55 ± 0,09 °C), 2005 (0,54 ± 0,09 °C) according to United States National Climatic influenced year and 1998 (0,52 ± 0,09 °C) (Figure 2.1.1) Data Center (NCDC) estimates, nominally the (blue).

0.6 El Nino Neutral La Nina 0.4

0.2

0.0

- 0.2 Global average temperature anomalies (°C) temperature Global average

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 7 1,40 С

о 1,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 0,00 -0,20 -0,40 -0,60 -0,80 -1,00 -1,20

Anomaly of average annual air temperature, annual air temperature, Anomaly of average Year -1,40

195019521954195619581960196219641966196819701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014

Figure 2.1.2 fourth warmest on instrumental record. Areas Due to specific physical and geographical – Year to year where the warmth was particularly notable conditions of Kyrgyzstan location (in the center distribution of were western North America including Alaska, of Eurasian continent, remoteness from large over land -surface temperatures, western Eurasia (many countries in Europe water bodies, predominance of mountain averaged across experienced record warmth), eastern Eurasia, terrain) climatic changes observed in Kyrgyzstan the territory much of Africa, large areas of South America, differ from global changes observed. One of the of Kyrgyzstan and southern and western Australia. Notably evidences served is that abnormal warm years for for 1950 -2014 cooler—than—average conditions for the year the Earth and Kyrgyzstan very often are not the (relative to the baseline period were recorded across large areas of the United same — only 5 the warmest years in Kyrgyzstan 1961–1990) States and Canada. got in the tenth of the Global warmest years (blue color). 2010 took the second place in the For comparison analysis of climatic changes rating of both the global warmest years and occurred on the Earth and on the territory of warmest years for Kyrgyzstan (Table 2.1.1). Kyrgyzstan, anomalies of average annual air temperature have been calculated for each year In general, 2014 was the Global warmest starting from 1950 till 2014 (relative to the 1961– year in the instrumental record. At that, 2014 1990) for 30 operating meteorological stations. for Kyrgyzstan took only the 28th place in the Annual temperature anomalies averaged for rating of the warmest years (temperature the territory of Kyrgyzstan have been ranked anomaly was 0,09°C). Probability of average in descending order with numbering of each annual temperature anomaly non—exceedance year. 10 abnormal warm years for the Earth and was 58% — frequency of related anomaly value Kyrgyzstan with related anomalies are presented on record since 1950. in Table 2.1.1. The Figure 2.1.2 shows year to year distribution of over land—surface average temperatures anomalies across the territory of 2014 has been ranked as the warmest Kyrgyzstan for 1950—2014 (blue color – negative year for the Earth since modern anomaly and red color — positive anomaly). The instrumental measurements began. Figure 2.1.3 shows the same data ranked.

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 8 Rank For the Earth Global Anomaly, For Kyrgyzstan Anomaly for °C Kyrgyzstan, °C

1 2014 0,57 1997 1,23 2 2010 0,55 2010 1,16 3 2005 0,54 2013 1,14 4 1998 0,52 2007 1,13 5 2003 0,51 2004 1,10 6 2002 0,51 2006 1,02 7 2013 0,51 2002 1,00 8 2007 0,49 1980 1,00 9 2006 0,48 2001 0,91 10 2009 0,48 2008 0,79 … … … … … 28 … … 2014 0,09

As it is known, the most intensive warming— Since 1997 till 2012, the period of stable Table 2.1.1 – up for Earth in general has been registering positive temperature anomalies has been Rating of since the middle of 1970th (Figure 2.1.1). registered on the territory of Kyrgyzstan. abnormal warm years for the Approximately, since 2000 there was timeout in Significant variability of average annual Earth (1850…2013 the process of global warming-up: temperature temperature anomalies has been registered period) and is ranged at the level of high values achieved. In for the last three years. Since, 2014 was at the Kyrgyzstan the result, notwithstanding that decade 2001- level of 1970 (0,09°C) when there was no such (1950…2014 2010 is the warmest on instrumental record, the intensive climate warming-up. period), relative to the anomalies monotone warming-up within this period has for 1961—1990. not been observed.*

On the territory of Kyrgyzstan, the year to year variations character of temperature anomalies differs from global trends. Local warming-up is not consistent: from 1977 till 1981 the period with stable positive temperature anomalies was registered. Then, within 1982- 1996, there was no similar stable tendency of temperature change: warm years alternated by cold years and some years were within the norm.

* (The source: IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. Publication on Climate change, 2013: Physical scientific basis. Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (WGI AR5)).

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 9 1,40 1997 2010 2013 2007 1,20 2004 2006 2002 1980

1,00 2001 2008 1990 1998

0,80 2000 2005 1999 2011 1988 1977 1963 1983 2009 1973

0,60 1971 1979 1978 0,40 1981 2003 2014 1970 1995 1991

0,20 1966 1985 1987 1965 1986 0,00 1994 -0,20 1956 2012 1992 1976 1961 1955 1962

-0,40 1950-1969 1968 1958 1982 1975 1996 1967 1952 -0,60 1970-1989 1959 1953 1993 1989

-0,80 1990-2009 1974 1969 1984 1951

-1,00 2010-2014 1960

-1,20 1964 1950 Anomaly of average annual air temperature (°C) annual air temperature Anomaly of average -1,40 1972 1954 1957

Figure 2.1.3 – Ranked anomalies 2.2 Air temperature anomalies on the territory of average annual over land -surface of Kyrgyzstan in 2014. temperatures, averaged across the territory temperatures and precipitations anomalies and of Kyrgyzstan Average annual air temperature in trends of their changes for 1976—2014, presented for 1950 -2014 Kyrgyzstan was within the limits of below. (relative to the climatic norm. baseline period 1961–1990). In general, the year was moderately warm Calculation of average monthly (for the (anomaly is 0...0,5°C) on the most part of period from December 2013 till February 2015), Kyrgyzstan’s territory (69% of observatory seasonal and annual (January – December 2014) network). Weak negative anomaly (to - 0,6°C) air temperature deviations against norm of has been registered predominantly in the baseline period 1961-1990 has been made for 32 north-west of Kyrgyzstan and also in the northern meteorological stations of Kyrgyzhydromet. and central parts of Jalal-Abad Oblast.

Temperature anomaly for Kyrgyzstan in 2014 Winter 2013/14. Temperature regime for was 0,09°C. Geographical distribution of warm Kyrgyzstan winter 2013/14 was insignificantly and cold areas across the territory and by seasons lower then norm ( -0,6°C). Geographical is shown on Figure 2.2.1. The legend presented distribution of anomalies across the territory on the figure has the similar values in gradation was inhomogeneous. The most parts of at the border, meaning that the maximal interval Issyk-Kul and Naryn Oblasts (territories the value is approximated and lowest value. E.g., 0,5 are usually blocked for intervention of cold in the interval of 0…0,5 – 0,499 and in interval arctic air), the winter season was within 0,5…1 – minimal value is nominal and equal to normal limits, and in some district - over norm 0,5. Such gradations segregation relates also to limits (Naryn Meteorological Station +0,9°C). other figures with geographical distribution of Air temperature values on the territories of

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 10 Chui, Talas, Jalal-Abad and Batken Oblasts Spring 2014. In general, average seasonal air were lower than norms. The coldest conditions temperature for the territory of Kyrgyzstan was were in the eastern and piedmont parts of within the normal limits (+0,5°C). Anomalies Chui valley (seasonal anomalies to -1,7°C). distribution across the territory was relatively equable.

The temperature in December 2013 Temperature regime of spring was within the normal limits; January was period was within the norm limits with abnormally warm, February – abnormally insignificant positive anomaly 0,5°C. cold with longstanding freeze period Temperature in March was within the across the whole territory of Kyrgyzstan. normal limits; in April it was lower than Therefore, winter period 2013/14, in norm; and in May it was abnormally high general, was insignificantly colder than for the whole territory of Kyrgyzstan. norm with -0,6°C total anomaly.

In March, the air temperature was about norm In December, the temperature in general for the most part of territory (total anomaly was for region was within the normal limits (- +0,4°C). In some districts (10% of territory), the 0,4°C). The most negative anomalies have been monthly air temperature was lower than norm: registered on piedmont and medium-altitude northern part of Sukuluk district of Chui Oblast mountains zones of Chui (- 1,2...- 1,8°C) - 1,3°C, bottom part of Suusamyr basin - 1,2°C, and Jalal-Abad Oblasts (- 1,3...- 2,2°C). The Toktogul basin - 1,4°C. weather in Naryn Oblast was warmer than usual (anomaly 0,5....0,8°C). April, in average for the territory of Kyrgyzstan was insignificantly colder then norm - 0,9°C. January for the whole territory of Kyrgyzstan The coldest, in comparison with norm, was the was abnormally warm with deviation from norm north (anomaly was from —0,5°C according to by +1,8°C. Significant positive anomalies have the date of Suusamyr Meteorological Station been registered in the areas with traditionally to —2,2°C according to the date of Issyk-Ata lowest winter temperatures – Suusamyr basin Meteorological Station). +3,6°C, Jumgal and Naryn districts +3,5 and 3,3°C accordingly, Kumtor stow +2,5°C. There were abnormal high air temperatures in May for whole territory of Kyrgyzstan (by 2°C After long-term thawing weather in January, above norm). The most significant deviations the freeze period started in Kyrgyzstan – have been registered in the central part of February was the abnormally cold for whole Chui valley (Bishkek Meteorological Station Kyrgyzstan. Temperature deviation from norm +2,7°C, Tokmok Meteorological Station +2,8°C), across whole territory was - 3,1°C. The highest in valley and piedmont zones of Osh Oblast negative anomalies have been registered in the (Uzgen Meteorological Station +2,9°C, Nookat north and north-west of Kyrgyzstan (Jany-Jer Meteorological Station +2,7°C). Meteorological Station, - 6,9°C). Summer 2014. In general for Kyrgyzstan, the summer 2014 was moderately warm with The “coldest” winter in comparison with norm has been registered in Chui, total anomaly +0,6°C. The hottest weather Talas, Jalal-Abad and Batken Oblasts. (+1,1…+1,5°C) was in Chui valley and also in some districts of Kyrgyzstan: Naryn Meteorological Station, Jalal-Abad Meteorological Station In February, the longstanding freeze (+1,2°C), Karakol Meteorological Station period lasted 18 days that was exceptionally (+1,1°C). rare phenomena. According to the data of Jany-Jer Meteorological Station, the minimal The summer was moderately warm temperature during some days was decreased with insignificant positive anomalies for to - 29,8°C (similar extreme values of air all months. Chui valley was “the warmest” temperature have been registered in 1989). in comparison with norm.

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 11 Temperature anomaly for June and July Autumn 2014. In general, the temperature was +0,5°C, and for August it was +0,9°C. Cli- regime on the country’s territory in autumn matic characteristic of summer period was that season was within the normal limits (0°C). Some the area with the highest positive anomalies warm sites have been registered in Suusamyr in June and August has been formed in Chui and Alai valleys (Suusamyr Meteorological valley (June anomalies were +1,8..+.2,3°C, Station +1,5°C and Sary-Tash Meteorological Figure 2.2.1 – August anomalies were +1,7...+2,2°C). In July, Station +1,1°C, correspondingly). Insignificant Anomalies of average annual the local abnormally warm areas were: Naryn and seasonal Meteorological Station (+2,3°C) and Gulcha Me- temperature teorological Station (+1,7°C); in August: Isfana Temperature regime of autumn period of over land Meteorological Station (+1,7°C), Jalal-Abad Me- was within the normal limits (0°C). September was warmer, October was -surface air on teorological Station (+1,8°C). Across the rest the territory of within the normal limits and November Kyrgyzstan for territory of Kyrgyzstan, temperature regime was colder than climatic norm. 2014. was within the limits of climatic norm.

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 12 cold area has been registered in the east of Figure 2.2.2 – Chui valley (Issyk-Ata Meteorological Station — Temperature regime of winter 2014/15 Anomalies of average annual 1,2°C). in comparison with similar period of the last year was warmer. December was and seasonal temperature In September, the deviation of average colder than norm; January and February of over land monthly temperature from norm was +0,9°C. were significantly warmer than norm. -surface air on The most notable deviations have been regis- the territory of Kyrgyzstan for tered in certain districts of Osh and Jalal-Abad The abnormal warm local areas (up to 2,7°C) winter period Oblasts (the highest positive anomaly on Ja- have been registered in the south-west, north 2014/15. lal-Abad Meteorological Station +2,4°C, Uzgen and north-west of country. The central part of Meteorological Station +2,1°C). Kyrgyzstan was within the normal limits and only insignificant cold local area (anomaly - 0,7°C) The temperature regime of October in Kyr- has been registered in the area of Toktogul gyzstan was within the limits of climatic norm water-storage reservoir. (-0,2°C) and similar for whole territory. Maximal deviations were from -1,2°C (Chon-Ashuu Mete- December 2014 was colder than norm (in orological Station) up to 0,8°C (Sary –Tash Mete- average - 1,2°C). The abnormal cold local orological Station). areas have been registered in some piedmont and high-mountain districts of Kyrgyzstan In comparison with other autumn months – (Suusamyr Meteorological Station — 3,0°C, November was the coldest month against norm Naryn Meteorological Station — 4,7°C, Chaek (—0,9°C). Negative anomalies prevailed territo- Meteorological Station — 2,6°C, It-Agar rially with the highest values in the east part Meteorological Station - 2,3°C) and in Toktogul of Chui valley (Tokmok Meteorological Station — basin - 3,6°C. 2,2°C, Issyk-Ata Meteorological Station — 2,3°C). The local warm area (+3,0°C) has been January 2015 was abnormally warm for the registered in the high-mountain Suusamyr basin. whole territory of Kyrgyzstan. Total anomaly was 2,1°C. The highest positive deviations from Winter period 2014/15. Temperature regime climatic norm was registered in the south-west of winter 2014/15 in comparison with similar of Kyrgyzstan - Jalal-Abad Meteorological period of the last year was warmer (Figure Station (+3,9°C), Gulcha Meteorological Station 2.2.2). In general for Republic, the temperature (+3,2°C), Uzgen and Nookat Meteorological anomaly was 1,5°C (for 2013/14 it was -0,6°C). Stations (+3,1°C).

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 13 Figure 2.3.1 — February was the second abnormally warm Meteorological Station +5,3°C, anomaly by Geographical distribution of month in succession, but with more significant meteorological stations of Chui Valley was in linear trends temperature deviations in comparison with average +5°C), the most part of Osh Oblast coefficients of January – in average +3,6°C. The local areas (maximum at Sary-Tash Meteorological Station average annual with abnormal high temperatures were: +4,4°C). and seasonal air north and north-west of Republic (Kyzyl-Adyr temperature anomalies on the territory of Kyrgyzstan for 1976—2014 (deviations from average values for 1961—1990)

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 14 2.3 Modern changes of air temperature on the territory of Kyrgyzstan.

Year Winter Spring Summer Autumn

b D b D b D b D b D 0,18 15 0,10 2 0,42 15 0,05 6 0,24 9

And over the land surface of the Northern hemi- Table 2.3.1 – Average annual air temperature in sphere it amounts to 0,324°С/10 years for the Assessment of Kyrgyzstan rises at the rate of 0,18°C per same period. linear trend of each 10 years. Global temperature rise over land -surface amounts to 0,17°С per each 10 years; air temperature In general for the territory of Kyrgyzstan, the anomaly (relative temperature rise over the land surface of average annual temperature change amounts to to 1961—1990), the Northern hemisphere amounts 0,32°С 0,18°C per each 10 years according to the linear averaged per per 10 years. trend (linear trend contribution to dispersion year and by amounts to 15%). seasons across the territory Climatic changes, observed on the Earth and of Kyrgyzstan territory of the Kyrgyz Republic in current and for 1976—2014: last centuries, have similar tendency to the rise of The highest temperature rise is regis- b – linear trend tered in spring and autumn – by 0,42 and average annual air temperature since the middle coefficient (°C/10 0,24°C for 10 years correspondingly. of 1970th (beginning of the modern warming-up). years), D — trend contribution to Taking this fact into account, the value of linear dispersion (%) trend slope for 1976 — 2014 is used for charac- For all year seasons, trend of air temperature teristic of climate change intensity. Assessment change is positive (Table 2.3.1). The highest of modern temperature changes trends on the changes are in the spring period when territory of Kyrgyzstan has been obtained by the temperature rise amounts to 0,42°C/10 years station time series of average annual tempera- and in autumn period when temperature rise tures from operating meteorological stations by is 0,24°C/10 years with 15 and 10% contribution the means of least square method and expressed to cumulative dispersion correspondingly. In in degree Celsius for decade (°С/10 years). summer and winter periods, there was no such intensive air temperature rise. Information about trend anomaly of global temperature and temperature over the land All-round rise of average annual air surface of the Northern hemisphere has been temperature is registered on the territory of received from the web-site of University of Kyrgyzstan. The most notable local areas with East Anglia (www.cru.ue.ac.uk/cru/data/tem- temperature rise during all seasons are the perature ). For assessment of global temperature most populated districts of Kyrgyzstan - the trend anomaly the HadCRUT4 database has been central part of Chui valley (Bishkek, Kara-Balta, used. This database is based on combination of Jany-Jer Meteorological Stations) and valley global historical temperature anomalies in each zone of Jalal-Abad and Osh Oblasts (Jalal-Abad 5°С over the land surface (CRUTEM4) and over and Uzgen Meteorological Stations). sea surface (HadSST3) relative to 1961—1990. Database consists of total 100 samples for ac- During winter period, the temperature rise counting of data uncertainties. is registered for t 67% of observatory network with the highest values in the areas of following Since, global temperature trend anomaly Meteorological Stations locations: Uzgen shows 0,167°С/10 years growth for 1976—2014. (0,36°C/10 years), Kyzyl-Adyr (0,32°C/10 years),

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 15 Ms. K. Djakipova, is cooling-down by 0,1...0,2°C/10 years; at 26% the Head of State The highest temperature rise for all of stations there is no any temperature changes Observation seasons is registered in the central part of and at 48% of stations there is season tem- Network Unit, Chui valley and valley zone of Jalal-Abad perature rise. The highest rise 0,26...0,34°C/10 Kyrgyzhydromet and Osh Oblasts. is making air years is registered according to the data from temperature meteorological stations located in cities: observations Jalal-Abad and Naryn (0,30°C/10 years), Toktogul Bishkek, Jalal-Abad, Kara-Balta, Talas and (0,28°C/10 years), Kara-Balta (0,27°C/10 years). Uzgen. Cooling –down by 0,17...0,23°C/10 years There are no any changes in temperature regime is registered according to the data from mete- at 19% of stations – predominantly eastern part of orological stations located, in general, in mid- Kyrgyzstan. Some local areas with cooling-down mountain zone of Kyrgyzstan: Ak-Terek, It-Agar, (-0,16…-0,19°C/10 years ) are registered in the Suusamyr, Chaek Meteorological Stations and in region of Chon-Ashuu mountain pass, Ala-Archa Toktogul basin. stow and according to data from Issyk-Ata Mete- orological Station. During autumn period as well as in spring, all- round temperature rise is registered. According During spring period, intensive temperature to 77% of observatory network temperature rise rise within the range of 0,25…0,71°C/10 years is is more than 0,2°C/10 years, at 19% of meteoro- observed all-round. The local areas with highest logical stations – more than 0,4°C/10 years. The temperature rise are registered near Kyzyl-Adyr local areas of intensive autumn temperature Meteorological Station (0,71°C/10 years) and rise are again Bishkek Meteorological Station Bishkek (0,59°C/10 years). (+0,48°C/10 years), Kara-Balta Meteorological Station (+0,48°C/10 years), Jalal-Abad Meteo- Changes of summer temperatures across the rological Station (+0,45°C/10 years). territory are not similar. At 29% of stations there

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 16 3. Atmospheric Precipitation 3.1 Precipitations changes observed over the Earth and in Kyrgyzstan in 2014.

Global average precipitation in 2014 was Jalal-Abad Oblast (It-Agar Stow - 115%) and the close to the long-term average of 1 033 mm, ac- mid- and high-mountain areas of the northern cording to the United States National Climatic slope of the Kyrgyz Ala-Too of Chui Oblast (Ala- Data Center. As usual, the pattern of precip- Archa Stow and Teo-Ashuu Pass - 112% of normal itation anomalies was marked by areas of un- value). usually low and high precipitation. In 2014, precipitation in Kyrgyzstan Areas of notably low precipitation (drought) was within the normal limits of 96%. included particularly the south-west of the United States, north-east China and eastern Brazil, which all experienced drought in 2014. During the year precipitations fell rather un- Areas of high annual precipitation for 2014 in- evenly - dry months and seasons were followed cluded northern Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, by abnormally humid months. The most arid the south of Brazil, and the Balkans. ones, for the territory of Kyrgyzstan in general, were: March - 57%, May - 32%, July - 36%, Au- gust-September - 72%, December - 70% of the The annual amount of on-land norm. The abnormally humid were: January - precipitation in 2014 was close to long- term annual average of 1033 mm. 120%, October - 200%, November - 166% of the norm; the amount of precipitation in February, April and June was close to normal. The calculation of precipitation anomalies in Kyrgyzstan was made for the period from December 2013 to February 2015 by 31 mete- Precipitation during the year fell orological stations, except for Balykchy mete- rather unevenly - dry months and seasons were followed by abnormally humid ones. orological station, the rate of precipitation for The most arid ones were March, May, which in some months is very small and the in- July, August, September and December; terannual variability gives too high or low values the abnormally humid - January, October, of anomalies in relation to other meteorological November. stations. The deviation of precipitation from norm was calculated as a percentage mainly for the baseline period of 1961-1990. For a Winter. Winter period of 2013/14 was quite number of stations another period of time was humid - the amount of precipitation in Kyr- chosen as the base one. Thus, in connection with gyzstan amounted to 119% of the norm (Figure shifting of meteorological stations Ala-Archa, 3.1.1). The precipitation excess (more than Kara-Balta, Toktogul, the period of 1978-2000 120%) was observed in the eastern part of Talas was taken as the baseline period, 1999-2013 for Oblast, on the most part of Chui and Jalal-Abad Tien-Shan; due to a later opening of It-Agar Me- Oblasts and the northern part of Osh Oblast. teorological Station the period of 1966-1990 was The snowiest areas (over 140%) were the north selected, 1968-1990 - for Chon-Ashuu Meteoro- of Chui Valley (Bishkek, Jany-Jer Meteoro- logical Station. logical Stations), the high-mountain area at the junction of Chui, Talas and Jalal-Abad Oblasts In 2014, in Kyrgyzstan there was precipitation (Suusamyr Basin, Teo-Ashuu Pass, It-Agar Stow) within the normal limits of 96% (Figure 3.1.1). and the piedmont area of Jalal-Abad Oblast (Ak- The moistest area was the mid-mountain zone in Terek Meteorological Station).

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 17 Figure 3.1.1 During all three winter months there was anomaly of 220% has been registered at Isfana – Anomalies an excess of precipitation observed: December Meteorological Station (Batken Oblast, Lyailyak of annual and seasonal 2013 — 127%, January 2014 — 120%, February — district). A significant precipitation shortage has precipitation 111%. been recorded at some stations located above totals (% of the 1500 meters: Meteorological Stations Suusamyr - normal values 50%, Sary-Tash - 63%, Chaek - 65%, Cholpon-Ata - Winter period 2013/14 was quite for 1961-1990) 67%, Chatkal - 70%. on the territory humid - total precipitation in Kyrgyzstan of Kyrgyzstan for amounted to 119% of the norm. 2014. In January, the spatial distribution of pre- cipitation was uneven - some areas were ex- In December, heavy precipitation (more than tremely dry: whole territory of Issyk-Kul Oblast 120%) and in some places extreme ones (more (12 ... 63% of the normal value), some areas of than 170%) were registered over a wide area - Osh (Meteorological Stations Sary-Tash - 56% about 60% of the observatory network. Maximum and Kara-Suu - 77%) and Batken Oblasts (Isfana

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 18 Meteorological Station - 71%). The precipitation Chon-Ashuu - 65%, Tien-Shan - 59%) and in the excess - more than 200% has been observed in Kara-Buura district of Talas Oblast (Kyzyl-Adyr some districts of Chui (Meteorological Stations Meteorological Station - 64%). Jany-Jer - 214%, Suusamyr - 267% and Teo-Ashuu - 258%) and Jalal-Abad Oblasts (Meteorological In May, there was a devastating lack of Stations Toktogul - 229%, Ak-Terek - 206% and humidity – on 90% of the territory, precipitation Chatkal - 208%). was less than 50%, on 25% - less than 20% of the norm. The greatest deficiency of humidity (8% In February, over the whole Kyrgyzstan, the of the normal value) has been observed in some precipitation made up 111% of the long-term areas of the northern and south-eastern shore average. The deficit of precipitation has been of Issyk-Kul Lake (Cholpon-Ata and Kyzyl-Suu observed on 10% of the territory (Meteoro- Meteorological Stations). logical Stations Kyzyl-Adyr - 64%, Isfana - 62% and Cholpon-Ata - 53%), on 58% of the stations Summer. The summer period again proved the precipitation was within the normal limits to be abnormally dry for the most territory of (from 80 to 120%), on 32% of the territory – pre- Kyrgyzstan (77% of the norm). The deficit of cipitation excess (more than 120%). The largest precipitation has been registered on 65% of the amount of precipitation has been observed in territory, the valley and piedmont areas of Chui the northern part of Sokuluk district - Jany-Jer oblast were the most arid - 21 ... 48%, Kara- Meteorological Station 155% and in the eastern Buura district of Talas Oblast - 39% of the norm. part of Sub Issyk-Kul area - Karakol Meteoro- The territory of Batken Oblast turned out to logical Station 166% of the norm. be moistened enough (131 ... 141%). On 1/2 of the territory of Jalal-Abad and Osh Oblasts, the precipitation was within the normal limits. Spring and summer periods were droughtly across the whole territory of Kyrgyzstan. In June, the precipitation, generally over the whole territory, was within the normal limits. Regional distribution of anomalies was Spring. The season was very droughtly for the extremely uneven: in the valley and piedmont whole territory of Kyrgyzstan - 67% of the norm. areas of Chui Oblast, the precipitation deficit has On almost 1/3 of the observatory network - been observed - 21 ... 50% of the norm, in Sub mainly in Issyk-Kul and Naryn Oblasts - there was Issyk-Kul area - 55 ... 94% of the normal value. a significant shortage of precipitation (less than On most part of the south-west of Kyrgyzstan - 60%), on 19% of the territory (some areas of Osh Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken Oblasts – there were and Batken Oblasts) the amount of precipitation much more precipitations (maximum anomalies was close to the long-term average (80... 94%). were registered on the Meteorological Stations Kara-Suu - 273%, Pacha-Ata - 209% of the In March, precipitation deficit (an average norm). In Naryn Oblast, the precipitation excess of 57%) was observed in the most parts of amounted to 118 ... 128%. Kyrgyzstan. Issyk-Kul and Naryn Oblasts turned out to be the most vulnerable areas - 8 ... 53% In July, the situation with precipitations of the norm. The moisture regime within the shortage was again an emergency for the entire normal limits (80 ... 105%) has been noted mainly territory of the country. Total anomaly was 36% in the south-west and the west of Kyrgyzstan - of the normal value. For 68% of the territory, in some areas of Jalal-Abad, Talas and Batken the precipitations were less than a half of the Oblasts and on the most part of Osh Oblast. long-term norm. On the eight stations (26% of the observatory network) there were almost no In April, almost everywhere in Kyrgyzstan precipitation - 0 ... 10% of the norm. the precipitation regime was favorable. For 39% of the territory the precipitation was In August, the situation with the catastrophic within the normal limits (from 80 to 120%) and lack of precipitation occurred again on the for 48% it was over the norm (121 ... 147%). northern part of Kyrgyzstan. The lack of The shortage of precipitation was recorded atmospheric moistening was particularly acute by the meteorological stations located in the in the Chui Valley - 4 ... 30% and Sub Issyk-Kul eastern part of Issyk-Kul Oblast (Karakol - 78%, are - 26 ... 61%. August for the south-western

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 19 Figure 3.1.2 part of Kyrgyzstan was quite favorable in the In October, on 90% of the territory of – Precipitation humidity regime. Since, in arid region - Batken Kyrgyzstan, the precipitation excess (over anomalies (% Oblast, the amount of precipitations was from 134%) has been observed, while according to of the norm for 1961-1990) on 181 to 330% of the normal value, in some areas 48% of the stations the amount of precipitation the territory of of Osh and Jalal-Abad Oblasts the precipitation was more than 200% (maximum anomaly on Kyrgyzstan excess has been also registered- 126 ... 181%. Cholpon-Ata Meteorological Station - 310% of in winter the normal value). 2014/15. On the most parts of Kyrgyzstan in In November, the overall precipitation autumn, the precipitation was much above the norm - 146%. has been registered to be significantly higher than the norm - 166% of the normal value. A significant excess of the norm (200%) has been Autumn. In autumn in Kyrgyzstan, there recorded by the 1/3 of the observatory network was significantly more precipitation than the (on the most parts of Osh and Issyk-Kul Oblasts, norm - 146%. The distribution of precipitation in some places of Jalal-Abad and Naryn Oblasts). anomalies over the territory was unequal. The The maximum precipitation excess has been precipitation excess has been observed in Naryn registered on Naryn Meteorological Station - and Issyk-Kul Oblasts. The deficit of precipitation 332%. has been observed in the central part of the south-western Kyrgyzstan (meteorological The winter period 2014/15 compared stations Batken - 49%, Sary-Tash - 68% and with the winter period 2013/14 turned out Pacha-Ata - 79%). to be drier, but within the normal limits with respect to the long-term averages. In September, the distribution of precipitation over the territory was extremely uneven: a significant lack of precipitation (less than 80%) Winter 2014/15. В The Bulletin includes an has been registered on more than a half of the analysis of precipitation anomalies over the past territory (58% of the stations), while in some winter 2014/15 (Figure 3.1.2), which, compared areas of Naryn, Issyk-Kul and Chui Oblasts there with the winter period 2013/14 turned out to was significant excess of the norm - the piedmont be drier, but within the normal limits with and high-mountain areas of the northern slope respect to the long-term averages (101%). In the of the Kyrgyz Ala-Too: meteorological stations north-west of Kyrgyzstan (Talas, Chui Oblasts) Baitik - 166%, Ala-Archa - 222%). and in Jalal-Abad Oblast, the precipitation was significantly higher than the norm - 122 ...

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 20 139%. On the territory of the central part of maximum 188% of the norm) and Jalal-Abad Sub Issyk-Kul and in the eastern part of Naryn Oblasts (Toktogul Meteorological Station — oblast (Naryn Meteorological Station) – the maximum 174% of the normal value), as well precipitation shortage has been recorded (40 as in some areas of Issyk-Kul and Naryn Oblasts ... 61%). (meteorological stations Chaek - 142%, Karakol — 137% and Chon-Ashuu - 133% of the norm). The In December 2014, the deficit of snowfall precipitation deficit (less than 80% of the norm) was on the most of areas (70% of the normal has been recorded by 1/3 of the stations, the value). On 58% of the territory, the precipitation most arid areas turned out to be those where was below normal. The largest deficit has been the meteorological stations Cholpon-Ata (4% of registered in Issyk-Kul and Naryn Oblasts — the norm) and Kyzyl-Suu (57% of the norm) are 22 ... 34% (except for Karakol meteorological located, Batken Oblast 49 ... 54% of the normal station - 112%). The precipitation above normal value. has been recorded by meteorological stations Bishkek — 134% and Ak-Terek — 132% of the February, generally for Kyrgyzstan was humid normal value. enough — 128% of the normal value and the territorial distribution of anomalies was quite The amount of precipitations in January 2015 similar. According to 58% of the observatory was within the norm (104%), but the distribution network, the precipitation was more than 150% of anomalies over the territory was quite uneven. of the long-term average. Maximum anomaly The highest level of humidity rate for Kyrgyzstan has been registered by the meteorological has been registered in the most parts of Chui stations Suusamyr — 183%, Chatkal — 173% and (according to Suusamyr meteorological station Tien-Shan — 170%.

3.2 The current changes in precipitation regime in Kyrgyzstan

• with little precipitation (Balykchy Me- In general, across the territory of teorological Station – the norm of pre- Kyrgyzstan for the period 1976-2014, cipitations is very low and little pre- every 10 years an increase in annual cipitation results in greater interannual precipitation by 2.9% is observed, with variability). the largest growth registered in summer and winter periods - by 7.0 and 5.2% for The numerical estimates of trends (the 10 years, respectively. linear trend coefficients and the percentage of dispersion series justified thereby) for the seasons and the year as a whole are presented Figure 3.1.2 shows the territorial distribution in Table 3.2.1 in percentage (%) of the norm for of coefficients of precipitation linear trends 10 years. in Kyrgyzstan for the year as a whole and the seasons of the year. The estimates were On the territory of Kyrgyzstan as a whole the presented according to the station time series upward trend in annual precipitation prevails of annual and seasonal precipitation anomalies (by 2.9% for the period of 10 years), with the for the period 1976-2014 at the locations of the largest growth observed in summer and winter stations. The trend lines were calculated for 27 periods - by 7.0 and 5.2% for 10 years, respec- stations of Kyrgyzhydromet. tively (contribution to total dispersion - 3.6 and 3.9%). In autumn, there is an insignificant in- The calculation excludes stations: crease in precipitation - 1.9% for 10 years. In spring, there was an overall reduction in precip- • with observational data gaps (meteoro- logical stations Gulcha, Chatkal) itation - 1.6% for 10 years. • with locations changed (meteorological It should be noted that the precipitation stations Karakol, Tien-Shan) events are characterized by a high interannual

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 21 variability. Therefore, it would be wrong to say Issyk-Kul Lake (Cholpon-Ata Meteorological with a complete certainty about the availability Station — by 1.2% for 10 years). of a trend, but not a particular phase of oscillation. In spring, the reduction of precipitation is registered on 60% of the territory. The most in- The greatest increase in precipitation tensive reduction is observed in piedmont and has been registered in Nookat district high-mountain areas of Chui Oblast: Suusamyr of Osh Oblast - 8% for 10 years and in Basin by 10%, Ala-Archa Gorge by 6.7%, Baitik Toktogul district of Jalal-Abad )Oblast - Pass by 5.7% for 10 years. In the western part of 7% for 10 years. Kyrgyzstan and the central part of Naryn Oblast the rise of precipitation is noted within the range of 0 ... 5% for 10 years, with a maximum The changes in annual precipitation over the value of 3.5% for 10 years, according to Naryn territory of Kyrgyzstan are generally uniform - Meteorological Station. within the range of 0 ... 5% for 10 years (Figure 3.2.1). The greatest increase in precipitation The change of the amount of summer pre- is registered in Nookat district of Osh Oblast cipitation on the territory of Kyrgyzstan is (Nookat Meteorological Station - 8% for 10 extremely uneven. The areas of the biggest years), in Toktogul district of Jalal-Abad Oblast increase are in the western part of Kyrgyzstan — (It-Agar Meteorological Station - 7% for 10 meteorological stations Nookat 29% for 10 years). Smaller increase in precipitation - 6% for years, Isfana 23% for a 10-year period. The rise 10 years, is noted in Kara-Buura district, Talas of values within 1.3 ... 23% for 10 years, is noted Oblast (Kyzyl-Adyr Meteorological Station) and on 78% of the territory. Moving from the west Aksy district of Jalal-Abad Oblast (Pacha-Ata eastwards, the level of precipitation increase Meteorological Station). is getting lower reaching negative values of 0 ...- 7% for 10 years (the areas with reduced pre- Together with the overall rise of precipi- cipitation) in the east of Issyk-Kul Oblast. There tation, there are some local areas of reduction are also local areas of precipitation reduction in thereof: Suusamyr Basin - 4% for 10 years, Ja- Chui Oblast - Ala-Archa Stow - 5.9% for 10 years, lal-Abad Meteorological Station – by 2% for 10 Suusamyr Meteorological Station - 5.2% for a years. 10-year period.

Table 3.3.1 – For the seasons of the year the rate of change Estimates of in precipitation in Kyrgyzstan is very uneven. Reduced precipitation is noted in the linear trend of Suusamyr Basin - 4% for 10 years, and precipitations Jalal-Abad city - 2% for 10 years. anomalies In winter, in most parts of Kyrgyzstan (about (relative to 1961- 60% of the observatory network) the rise of 1990), averaged precipitation within the range of 5 ... 10% for for the year and 10 years is observed. The biggest change in The character of changes in precipitation in the seasons over the territory precipitation is registered in the eastern part autumn is almost the opposite of that in summer — of Kyrgyzstan of Kyrgyzstan, according to Chon-Ashuu Mete- the reduction of precipitation is observed for 1976-2014: orological Station — by 13% for 10 years. The in the west of the territory, and the rise - in b - linear trend reduction of winter precipitation is recorded in the east. According to 37% of the observatory coefficient (° C / the western part of Batken Oblast (Isfana Me- network, there is precipitation reduction 10 years) D - trend contribution to teorological Station — 1.1% for 10 years) and from 2.1 to 8.8% for 10 years. The areas of dispersion (%) the central part of the northern shore of the the most rapid reduction in precipitation are

Precipitation

Year Winter Spring Summer Autumn

b D b D b D b D b D 2,9 2,8 5,2 3,9 —1,6 1,5 7,0 3,6 1,9 2,2

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 22 Figure 3.2.1 – the meteorological stations Batken (-8.8% for of a maximum rise are the central and eastern Geographical distribution of the 10 years), Jalal-Abad (-7.5% for 10 years) and parts of Sub Issyk-Kul (meteorological stations linear trend coef- Suusamyr (-7.1% for 10 years). The increase in Cholpon-Ata +15.7 and Kyzyl-Suu + 15.5% for 10 ficients of anoma- lies of the annual precipitation is observed in the eastern part of years). and seasonal pre- Naryn Oblast and in Issyk-Kul Oblast. The areas cipitation totals (% for a 10-year period) on the ter- ritory of Kyrgyz- stan for 1976-2014 (deviation from the average for 1961-1990) on the territory of Kyr- gyzstan for 1976- 2014 (deviation from the average for 1961- 1990).

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 23 4. Synoptic conditions for weather conditions formation

The synoptic conditions that have shaped In May, the territory of Kyrgyzstan was under the certain weather conditions are presented the influence of low-pressure gradients, which for the period of 2014, including December resulted in warm, dry weather. The rise of 2013, as well as January and February 2015. the average daily temperature above +15°C, marking the beginning of summer weather, In the first half of December 2013, the was recorded a week earlier than usual in most weather was determined by the north-western areas. In lowland areas of Osh, Jalal-Abad and invasions and a series of cyclonic waves of small Batken Oblasts - in the third decade of April, vertical power, which resulted in moderate in the Chui, Talas valleys, farming areas of precipitation and a decrease in air temperature. Issyk-Kul, Naryn Oblasts and piedmont areas In the second half of the month, the southern of the southern parts of the country - at the periphery of anticyclone and a high-pressure beginning, and in the rest of the agricultural gradient prevailed. areas - in the third decade of May.

The weather in January was conditioned The weather conditions of summer months by the wave action on the cold fronts of the (June-August) were conditioned by low- western invasion and a series of western pressure gradient fields in the surface layer and outbreaks. A cloudy weather with precipitation the predominance of the south-western and was prevalent. western streams in the troposphere. Relatively hot, dry weather has been observed during all In February, the territory of Kyrgyzstan was three months. under the influence of the southern, south- western peripheries of anticyclone and slowly Dry and hot weather in September was travelling cyclone over the northern parts of the conditioned by low-pressure gradients fields, Central Asia, which was formed in the first half weak western outbreaks and influence of the of the month, and also series of weak western southern, south-western periphery of the outbreaks in the second half of the month. anticyclone.

In March, latitudinal migration prevailed in The onset of meteorological autumn (the fall the troposphere, the global wave activity and of the average daily temperature below +15°C) western invasions gave way to the southern and happened at the beginning of the first decade south-western periphery of the anticyclone. of October. At the end of the third decade of the month, the north-western and northern cold invasion Unstable weather in October was conditioned occurred on the territory of Kyrgyzstan, which by a high frequency of the western, north- contributed to a decrease in temperature to western invasions and wave action. At the end of abnormally low levels and intense precipitation. the first and third decades of the month, a series of north-western and western cold invasions Unstable weather in April was caused mainly occurred on the territory of the Republic, which by a series of western and north-western contributed to a great drop in air temperature invasions. During the month, the intrusion of and heavy precipitation. In agricultural regions cold air masses from the north and west was on October 8 the rain-to-snow precipitation has extremely intensive, which led to a decrease in been registered, on October 9-10 early frosts air temperature and heavy precipitation. have been observed, that is two weeks earlier than usual.

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 24 In late October, vegetation crops stopped The weather in January was conditioned Ms. Yu. Alkina, growing in the majority of agricultural areas. by the wave action on the cold fronts of the Senior specialist of Meteorological western invasion and a series of western Forecasts Unit is The weather in November was mainly outbreaks. A cloudy weather with precipitation at the automa- contributed by the wave action and a series of was prevalent. tion-equipped western outbreaks. working place for In February, the territory of Kyrgyzstan was meteorological During the month, the intrusion of cold air under the influence of the southern, south- forecaster masses from the north was extremely intensive, western peripheries of anticyclone and slowly which led to a decrease in air temperature and travelling cyclone over the northern parts of the heavy precipitation. Central Asia, which was formed in the first half of the month, and also series of weak western In the first half of December, the weather outbreaks in the second half of the month. was determined by the north-western invasions and a series of cyclonic waves of small vertical power, which resulted in moderate precipitation and a decrease in air temperature. In the second half of the month, the southern periphery of anticyclone and a high-pressure gradient prevailed.

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 25 5. Extreme weather events 5.1 Dangerous (sever) meteorological events

Snow fallen on March 30, 2015 Bishkek, Chui Oblast

According to data of Kyrgyzhydromet obser- Territorial distribution of dangerous mete- vatory network, 56 local dangerous meteoro- orological events for 2014 is presented on the logical events have been observed in Kyrgyzstan Figure 5.1.1. in 2014: The most distribution of heavy fogs (7 cases • 12 cases with heavy fog (meteorological ob- of 12 registered) in Kyrgyzstan for 2014 has been served range less than 50 m, durability - 6 recorded in Chui Oblast. About half of windsqualls hours and more); have been observed in Issyk-Kul Oblast according • 18 cases with heavy precipitations (liquid or to Balykchy Meteorological Station registering mixed precipitations in amount of 30 mm and strong and cold western gravity wind (Ulan) more, solid precipitation in amount 20 m and blowing from Boom Gorge toward Issyk-Kul Lake. Figure 5.1.1 – more for 12 hours and less); The most frequency of heavy precipitations – Distribution • 25 cases with very strong wind (windspeed 10 cases of 18 – has been registered in Jalal-Abad of dangerous more than 25 m/c); meteorological Oblast. events by Oblasts • 1 case with deposition of wet snow (35 mm in 2014. and more).

Fog Wind Precipitations 1 2 3 4 2 6 3 10 1 1 7 1 12 2

Jalal-Abad Oblast Naryn Oblast Jalal-Abad Oblast Talas Oblast Jalal-Abad Oblast Osh Oblast Osh Oblast Chui Oblast Chui Oblast Issyk-Kul Oblast Chui Oblast Batken Oblast Naryn Oblast Issyk-Kul Oblast

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 26 5.2 Lack of water and drought Figure 5.2.1 – Precipitations The main characteristic of 2014 was that the Figures 5.2.1 and 5.2.2 show territorial dis- anomalies (% of meteorological draught, caused by significant tribution of air temperature and precipitations norm 1961—1990) averaged for May- shortage of precipitations and enough high tem- anomalies averaged for May-September 2014 on September 2014 perature, has been observed on the most part of the territory of Kyrgyzstan. on the territory of country for long-term period (May-September). Kyrgyzstan.

Precipitation amount for May-September of valley zone of Talas Oblast. Temperature Figure 5.2.2 – 2014, according to data of 68% of regime in totals on territory for May-September Air temperature anomalies Kyrgyzhydromet’s Meteorological Stations was higher than climatic norm by 1,0°C. The (deviation from was less than 80%, at that significant deficit warmest areas with temperature norm excess norm 1961—1990) of precipitations have been registered on 26% up to 1,7°C, were Chui valley, land farming zone averaged for May- September 2014 of Stations (less than half of norm). The most of Osh and Jalal-Abad Oblast and area of Naryn on the territory of vulnerable was the land farming zones of Chui, Meteorological Station location. Kyrgyzstan. Osh, Jalal-Abad Oblasts and the eastern part

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 27 Figure 5.2.3 – Different draught indexes are the auxiliary is based on precipitations probability for certain Territorial aid for draught monitoring and taking of period (more than 30 years) and then proba- distribution of SPI mitigation decisions. One of the most wide- bility of observed precipitations is converted to in total for May- September and by spread draught monitoring indexes in world index. SPI has been developed for calculation months from April practice is SPI (Standardized Precipitations of precipitations deficit for different time pe- till September Index) that has been developed in 1993 by riods (1, 3, 6, 9, 12 months) that show draught 2014. Colorado University (McKee et al., 1993). SPI influence on provision underground, surface

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 28 run-off control flow and soil with water. The It should be noted that more than 60% of shorter periods (1-3 months) demonstrate me- agricultural lands of Kyrgyzstan are in the area teorological and soil draught while long-term of irrigated farming where the soil draught was periods are suitable for hydrological draught often reduced by irrigation. This factor has not monitoring. been considered within present analysis.

Calculations of SPI for short-term period Meteorological draught observed in 2014 (3 months) for 30 stations, each month from had negative affect on crop farming and cattle April till September have been used in present breeding productivity. analysis. Figure 5.2.3 shows territorial distri- bution of SPI in total for May-September and by Notwithstanding that the moisture regime months from April till September 2014. for the year was in genera within the normal limits – 96% (chapter 3), deviation of monthly SPI in April 2014 has been presented across precipitations from long-term annual average the territory of Kyrgyzstan in the norm, while moisture regime within the year negatively af- from May till September the strong draughts fected hydrological regime of country. have been observed in certain districts (in May and July widely). In May, the strong draught has been registered in the area of Talas and Naryn Due to insufficient snow accumulation Meteorological Stations location and in the in October - November 2013 and March eastern part of Issyk-Kul Oblast. In June, the 2014, the Kyrgyz Republic suffered from significant water resources deficit in 2014, strong draught affected only the eastern part one of the consequences of which was of Issyk-Kul basin. The most spatial distribution catastrophic shortage of water inflow to of draught across the territory of Kyrgyzstan Toktogul water-storage reservoir. has been registered in July when the strong draught affected the whole eastern part of Kyrgyzstan and the extreme draught has been The Kyrgyz Republic with significant reserves registered in some areas (Bishkek Meteoro- of water resources, accumulated in seasonal logical Station and the eastern part of Issyk-Kul snow, snowfields and glaciers, suffered from basin). In August, the strong draught has been significant water resources deficit in 2014 (due observed in the north-west of Chui valley and to insufficient snow accumulation in October — south-east of Issyk-Kul basin. In September the November 2013 and March 2014), one of the strong draught has affected western part of consequences of which was catastrophic Talas Oblast, south-east part of Naryn Oblast shortage of water inflow to Toktogul water- and northern part of Chui Oblast, where the ex- storage reservoir. treme draught has been registered also. It is necessary to note that period from Consequently, the northern and eastern October 1 till March 31 is used in hydrology parts of Kyrgyzstan were the most vulnerable for forecasting of water content for upcoming to draught in 2014 vegetation period. Hydrological year 2013/14 (October 2013-March 2014) in total was more droughtly than hydrological year 2014/15 May-September 2014 has been (October 2014 — March 2015). characterized by moderate draught across the whole eastern part of Kyrgyzstan and by strong draught in the central part of Figure 5.2.4 shows annual distribution of Chui Oblast and in the eastern part of water consumption in Toktogul water—storage Issyk-Kul basin. reservoir for 2008-2014.

For the last 7 years the least inflow to In general, May-September 2014 has been Toktogul water—storage reservoir has been characterized by moderate draught across the registered in 2008 and 2014. whole eastern part of Kyrgyzstan and by strong draught in the central part of Chui Oblast and in the eastern part of Issyk-Kul basin.

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 29 Average monthly water inflow (m3/s) to Toktogul water-storage reservoir 1800 1600 1400 /s)

3 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Average monthly water consumption (m 0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Norm 157 154 166 296 631 971 838 582 330 237 202 168 2008 157 161 191 234 691 693 469 476 273 227 200 185 2009 154 166 188 273 510 1125 1000 732 482 405 287 226 2010 209 201 230 550 1109 1676 1248 933 487 356 264 228 2011 204 217 219 476 806 886 707 503 373 284 252 227 2012 190 188 203 515 563 820 689 567 398 261 236 204 2013 151 209 217 251 451 923 714 670 380 265 225 209 2014 223 218 220 234 558 709 579 380 277 250 192 193

Figure 5.2.4 – Crisis of Kyrgyzstan’s hydroenergetic system tangible during winter season 2014/2015 in Average monthly as the direct negative consequence of water case of cold winter conditions 2013/2014 water inflow (m3/s) to Toktogul resources scarcity for hydrological year 2014 reoccurrence. water-storage (October 2013 – March 2014) could be more reservoir for 2008-2014.

5.3 Trend of nature – climate emergency situations changes

More than 20 dangerous nature and weather which originally are hydrometeorological, events and processes: earthquakes, mudflows meaning directly depending on weather and cli- and flood flows, snow avalanches, landslides matic changes. and rockslides, firn-ice avalanches, storms, ice jam, hail, freezings, draught, rainfall, Mudflows and flood flows due to their soilfluction, glacier pulsations and surge of exclusive distribution and frequency take the glacier, soil subsidence, karst and thermokarst, first place among other natural disasters in fires, etc. are observed on the territory of Kyr- terms of composite damage. Almost whole gyzstan. The most frequently registered events territory of republic is affected by mudflows. are mudflows and flood flows, heavy precipita- There 3130 rivers with mudflow risk in Kyr- tions, winds, fogs, late spring and early autumn gyzstan. The most number of them is located in freezings, significant weather changes, draught, the basins of Chu river – 479, Talas river – 254,

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 30 Naryn river – 789, Kara–Dariya river – 666 and appearance of late spring freezings is signif- Issyk–Kul Lake — 375. icant weather changes recorded within period from March 30 till April 3, 2015 when after For the recent years an activation of mud- long—term period with high daily tempera- flows and flood processes is occurred due to: tures, the cold northern outbreak with heavy snowfall and severe temperature decreasing • Precipitation amount causing water sat- uration increasing of mountain slopes occurred on the whole territory of Kyrgyzstan. feeding mudflows At the most part of meteorological stations this fact was registered as the over—limit of his- • Number of lakes with v risk located at torical minimum – according to Bishkek Mete- the places of retreating glaciers; orological Station, the minimal temperature • Amount of friable fragmental materials on March 30 was -10,3°С (preceding minimum (large accumulation of moraine at the has been recorded in 1949 and amounted to places of retreating glaciers). -4,1°С), on March 31 the minimum was close to historical minimum registered in 1941 Snow avalanches are the most dangerous (-13,1°С), in 2015 minimum was -13,2°С. The hydrometeorological disasters that pose signif- most dangerous temperature fall for agriculture icant threat for people, constructions, trans- was in the areas of land farming. In cultivated portation lanes, energy bridges and communi- areas of Osh, Jalal–Abad and Batken Oblasts, cation lines. There are a lot of cases associated freeze with intensity of -5…-12°С caused loss with cattle death and forests damage caused by of apricot set at the blooming stage. -10…-17°С avalanches. 105 thousand square kilometers — freeze in Chui Oblast that was lasting for 2-3 53% of whole territory of Kyrgyzstan are sub- days, caused loss of the most part of horticul- jected to avalanche influence. Within 779 areas tural crops. In certain areas the loss of potato, of avalanche formation there are more than cabbage and sow winter wheat sproutings, and 30 000 avalanche site, 3% of which constitute some seedlings has been registered. specific threat to people. Avalanches and landslides mainly occur on Late spring and early autumn freezings, the territory of south—west Kyrgyzstan (3500 sharp weather changes are not harmful for the of 5000 existing landslide zones), where up to Figure 5.3.1 – 30—40 landslides per 1 km2 are observed. The Natural-climatic life and health of population, but they cause most vulnerable are motor roads and Mailuu– disasters caused direct and indirect exclusively significant financial or Suu, Suliukta and Min–Kush towns. Long-term damage to agriculture – the basis of Repub- economic damage observations show that the most number of in 2014. lic’s economy. The bright example of negative

Ice blocking Freezing (7 cases) Snowfall (4 cases) Landslides (11 cases) (3 cases)

Hail showers Avalanches (6 cases) (52 cases) Hurricanes and strong winds (14 cases)

Underflooding (5 cases) Mud ows and ood ows (42 cases)

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 31 landslides are formed during years with abun- damage (data of the the MES of KR and dance of water (such as 1969, 1978-79, 1988, Kyrgyzhydromet). 1994, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004). However, the large landslides formed under influence In 2014, the avalanches (52 cases), mud- of underground waters can occur during low flows and flood flows (42 cases) represented water years also, independently on season. In the most number of natural-climatic emer- general, the most intensive activation of land- gency situations. It should be noted that there slides is registered in spring – period of snow also was a considerable amount of freezing melting and atmospheric precipitation. events (4). Figure 5.3.1 shows number of natural-cli- matic disasters caused financial or economic

NEWS

In April 2015, the Regional UNDP Programme “Climate Risks Management in the Central Asia” has been completed Delegation from Kyrgyzstan, including representatives of Kyrgyzhydromet took part in final Conference of UNDP Programme “Climate Risks Management in the Central Asia” that was held on April 7-8, 2015 in Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan. The main tasks of UNDP Programme were decrease of climate risks level, strengthening of adaptation ca- pacity, encouragement of early warning measures development, and establishment of fundraising basis for at- traction of long-terms investments in order to increase climate change resilience. The activity of Programme in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, as well as poster exhibition demonstrating results achieved in each country, have been presented within the Conference.

In June 2015, the Programme on Adaptation to Climate Change in “Emergency Situations” Sector has been adopted. Programme on Adaptation to Climate Change in “Emergency Situations” Sector for 2015-2017 and Action Plan on Adaptation to Climate Change for 2015-2017 have been adopted by the Order of the Minister of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic # 693 dated July 7, 2015. This document has been developed under support of UNDP Programme “Environment Protection for Sustainable development” and aimed at implementation of adaptation activity by 3 main directions: • Dangerous Weather Events Monitoring and Forecasting System; • Early Warning Systems for population and organizations in order to prevent human losses and minimize economic damage; • Construction norms for ensuring of infrastructure resistance to dangerous climate effects. According to the order, the Agency on Hydrometeorology under the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MES of KR) should collect information on planned activities implementation progress from structural, territorial and subordinated units of MES on a quarterly basis.

Newsletter #1, August 2015 / page 32