APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY: THE GOLDEN ERA

Stanley A. Changnon* Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, Illinois

1. INTRODUCTION of the relationships between weather-climate conditions and those in other parts of the Applied climatology has been the physical and socioeconomic worlds, and 4) foundation upon which the world’s weather- operation of weather-sensitive systems that sensitive activities and infrastructure have been employ climatic information in making developed. Applications of climate data and decisions. I will not dwell on the long history of information have likely contributed more to the applied climatology since it is addressed development of most nations than any other elsewhere (Changnon 1995) function of the atmospheric sciences. Today weather forecasts are very useful and important 2. GOLDEN ERA but these only became available in the 20th The era since about 1970 has seen a Century, more than 150 years after applied series of scientific and technological changes climatology had been in service. that have vastly enhanced the field of applied Applied climatology describes, defines, climatology. Coupled with these advances have interprets, and explains the relationships been national and global economic conditions between climate conditions and countless that acted to increase the demand for climate weather-sensitive activities. Applied clima- products. The golden age of applied tology does not include fundamental, basic climatology has begun. studies of the climate system, but it does The agricultural economy became global embrace causation as a functional part of and with this expansion came huge economic explaining climatic relationships to other pressures. American firms searched for every phenomena. activity that would give them an advantage. One The field of applied climatology has of these was use of climate predictions. Firms evolved over the past 60 years, into interactive that had previously ignored use of uncertain groups embracing three functional areas. First, climate outlooks now shifted and became users. is the inner core of applied climatology, Other business sectors also became global, and focusing on instruments and data. Functions the net effects was more use of climate data and found in the second group relate to the information. interpretation and generation of climate Another factor enhancing wide interest information generally based on interactions and use of climate information were major with users. The third group consists of users of global climate anomalies of the 1970s and early applied climatology products, and is easily the 1980s and their severe impacts. This included largest group. Applications of climate the devastating Sahel drought, the record cold information fall into four classes: 1) design of winters of 1976-1980 in the U.S., and the structures and planning activities, 2) droughts of 1980, 1983, and 1988. Climate and assessments of current and past conditions the problems it created, including escalation of including evaluation of extreme events, 3) study federal relief payment for weather-climate ______disasters, got the attention of the federal * Corresponding address: Illinois State Water government, and Congress passed the National Survey, 2204 Griffith, Champaign, IL 61820; e- Climate Program Act in 1978. This program mail: [email protected] fostered new climate institutions, enhanced growth of private sector providers of climate applied research, and funded new data information. The development of these new collection-transmission systems. However, at institutions with expertise and systems to serve the federal level the program became the needs of users of climate data and overshadowed in the late 1980s by the rapidly information led to other advances in applied expanding national climate change endeavors. climatology. Concerns over a climate change related to Interdisciplinary research of clima- global warming became the new thrust tologists and other physical and social scientists enveloping most of the atmospheric sciences. increased and this led to a new level of An era of numerous weather extremes sophisticated climate-effect models (crops, and large global losses during the 1990s has led water, transportation, etc.). Further, these applied climatologists to pursue climatological models, when fed with real-time data, allowed assessments. Some have assessed whether these their use in operational settings. Thus, near real- increasing losses were due to the start of a time estimates of current and projected climate climate change due to global warming, to effects were generated for decision makers. increasing societal vulnerability to climate, These activities moved forward in the right and/or to inadequate government policies. arenas based on assessments of user needs that Recent major urban droughts in the U.S. began during the 1970s, a form of market initiated new societal problems, indicating the analysis for climate products. future of water supplies, particularly for major Since the 1970s the nation and world urban areas, looks questionable. have seen an increase in society’s sensitivity to Development during the 1960s and climate conditions and especially extremes. 1970s of reasonably inexpensive computer Population growth coupled with demographic systems capable of handling large volumes of changes and growth of wealth have created climate data was another key factor in the recent greater vulnerability and hence higher costs growth of applied climatology. The systems from climate anomalies. These impacts in the allowed continual updates of information, and U.S. have further promoted the growth in the the development and delivery of near real-time use of climate data and information to more climate information, coupled with wide use of effectively react, manage, and compete. PCs. Everyone could access a wealth of climate Climate information has taken on greater value. information quickly and at low cost. This One reflection of this in the business world has enhanced use of climate information has helped been the development and use of “weather create greater awareness of the value of applied derivatives” during the 1990s, a means of climatology. insuring against climatological risk (Zeng The above-mentioned fast access was 2000). The growing “weather market” of today facilitated by another critical step forward—the is a fixture of private firms who supply a variety development of inexpensive means to quickly of climate products, including derivatives and collect data, and to transmit climate data and risk models, to weather-sensitive firms. information. This included satellites and the One of the applied climate products long Internet. These allowed real time transmittal of sought by weather-sensitive entities has been data and quick access to it, a huge step forward. accurate long-term climate predictions. The past Closely coupled with this advance were the 15 years have seen major advances in climate establishment of new climate service/research prediction quality, related to a greater centers, which had been fostered by the understanding of the climate system such as the National Climate Program, as well as the effects of El Nino on the nation’s climate. Government predictions have improved, both in agencies involved in climate services and by accuracy and formats needed by users. Private private sector partners is needed to educate and forecasters now work more closely with firms demonstrate how to use climate information and to interpret predictions to meet specific needs. the potential values apt to be realized from usage to manage climate risks. 3. SUMMARY There is no systematic collection of As stated, applied climatology has data on the impacts of climate extremes, and a moved into its golden age in service to society. national effort to begin such data collection is In a recent book, Thompson and Perry (1997) needed (NRC 1999). Uncertainty over impacts provide a broad, all-encompassing view of the under a changing future climate due to global world of applied climatology. They and 27 warming is a current challenge and one that will other applied climatologists prepared chapters continue. Some have predicted future climate on wide-ranging topics like climate effects on conditions exceed extremes sampled in the past tourism, glaciers, fisheries, and air pollution. 100 years, making use of existing climate- Hobbs (1997), in a sweeping assessment of impact regression models as predictors of future applied climatology, points to the growing impacts invalid. The implications of future awareness of applied climatology and climate changes remain a major challenge for increasing use of climate information. applied climatologists. However, not all things are occurring at Resolution of these four issues: better an optimum level. Some problems still face the training, stabilization of weather measurements, field. Ironically, teaching of applied climatology better information on climate impacts, and is too limited and often not done at many effects of global warming induced climate colleges and universities. To be effective, change need to accomplished to realize the full quality instruction in applied climatology potential of applied climatology. requires interdisciplinary training and Regardless, applied climatology is the experience (Changnon 1998). oldest atmospheric sciences activity in service A second concern relates to the to society and its most successful, now realizing adequacy of weather instrumentation and data its golden era. collection. Since the structure of weather data collection endeavors in the U.S. is still References dominated by the needs of forecasters, there are continuing problems with sustaining adequate Changnon, D., 1998: Design and test of a spatial sampling of climate conditions and with “hands-on” applied climate course in an the use of instruments that allow continuity undergraduate meteorology program. with historical data (NRC 1998). For example, Bull. Amer. Meteoro. Soc., 79, 79-84. the automated surface observation system Changnon, S.A., 1995: Applied climatology: A installed during the 1990s for measuring many glorious past, and uncertain future. weather conditions at nation’s first-order Historical Essays in Meteorology, weather stations has led to alterations in the Amer. Meteoro. Soc., 379-393. quality of certain data. Hobbs, J.E., 1997: Introduction: The emergence As noted above, the use of climate data of applied climatology and climate and information has grown rapidly in the past impact assessment. Applied 30 years, but sampling reveals many potential Climatology Principles and Practice, users are still not served and often unaware of Routledge, New York, 1-12. applications. An outreach effort by government National Research Council, 1998: Future of NWS Cooperative Network, National Academy Press, Washington, DC. National Research Council, 1999: Costs of Natural Disasters: A Framework for Assessment, National Academy Press, Washington, DC. Thompson, R.D., and A. Perry, 1997: Applied Climatology Principles and Practice, Routledge Press, New York, NY. Zeng, L., 2000: Weather derivatives and weather insurance: Concept, application, and analysis. Bull. Amer.Meteoro. Soc.,81, 2075-2082.