DOCSLIB.ORG

Applied Climatology: the Golden Era

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Applied Climatology: the Golden Era APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY: THE GOLDEN ERA Stanley A. Changnon* Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, Illinois 1. INTRODUCTION of the relationships between weather-climate conditions and those in other parts of the Applied climatology has been the physical and socioeconomic worlds, and 4) foundation upon which the world’s weather- operation of weather-sensitive systems that sensitive activities and infrastructure have been employ climatic information in making developed. Applications of climate data and decisions. I will not dwell on the long history of information have likely contributed more to the applied climatology since it is addressed development of most nations than any other elsewhere (Changnon 1995) function of the atmospheric sciences. Today weather forecasts are very useful and important 2. GOLDEN ERA but these only became available in the 20th The era since about 1970 has seen a Century, more than 150 years after applied series of scientific and technological changes climatology had been in service. that have vastly enhanced the field of applied Applied climatology describes, defines, climatology. Coupled with these advances have interprets, and explains the relationships been national and global economic conditions between climate conditions and countless that acted to increase the demand for climate weather-sensitive activities. Applied clima- products. The golden age of applied tology does not include fundamental, basic climatology has begun. studies of the climate system, but it does The agricultural economy became global embrace causation as a functional part of and with this expansion came huge economic explaining climatic relationships to other pressures. American firms searched for every phenomena. activity that would give them an advantage. One The field of applied climatology has of these was use of climate predictions. Firms evolved over the past 60 years, into interactive that had previously ignored use of uncertain groups embracing three functional areas. First, climate outlooks now shifted and became users. is the inner core of applied climatology, Other business sectors also became global, and focusing on instruments and data. Functions the net effects was more use of climate data and found in the second group relate to the information. interpretation and generation of climate Another factor enhancing wide interest information generally based on interactions and use of climate information were major with users. The third group consists of users of global climate anomalies of the 1970s and early applied climatology products, and is easily the 1980s and their severe impacts. This included largest group. Applications of climate the devastating Sahel drought, the record cold information fall into four classes: 1) design of winters of 1976-1980 in the U.S., and the structures and planning activities, 2) droughts of 1980, 1983, and 1988. Climate and assessments of current and past conditions the problems it created, including escalation of including evaluation of extreme events, 3) study federal relief payment for weather-climate _____________________________________ disasters, got the attention of the federal * Corresponding address: Illinois State Water government, and Congress passed the National Survey, 2204 Griffith, Champaign, IL 61820; e- Climate Program Act in 1978. This program mail: [email protected] fostered new climate institutions, enhanced growth of private sector providers of climate applied research, and funded new data information. The development of these new collection-transmission systems. However, at institutions with expertise and systems to serve the federal level the program became the needs of users of climate data and overshadowed in the late 1980s by the rapidly information led to other advances in applied expanding national climate change endeavors. climatology. Concerns over a climate change related to Interdisciplinary research of clima- global warming became the new thrust tologists and other physical and social scientists enveloping most of the atmospheric sciences. increased and this led to a new level of An era of numerous weather extremes sophisticated climate-effect models (crops, and large global losses during the 1990s has led water, transportation, etc.). Further, these applied climatologists to pursue climatological models, when fed with real-time data, allowed assessments. Some have assessed whether these their use in operational settings. Thus, near real- increasing losses were due to the start of a time estimates of current and projected climate climate change due to global warming, to effects were generated for decision makers. increasing societal vulnerability to climate, These activities moved forward in the right and/or to inadequate government policies. arenas based on assessments of user needs that Recent major urban droughts in the U.S. began during the 1970s, a form of market initiated new societal problems, indicating the analysis for climate products. future of water supplies, particularly for major Since the 1970s the nation and world urban areas, looks questionable. have seen an increase in society’s sensitivity to Development during the 1960s and climate conditions and especially extremes. 1970s of reasonably inexpensive computer Population growth coupled with demographic systems capable of handling large volumes of changes and growth of wealth have created climate data was another key factor in the recent greater vulnerability and hence higher costs growth of applied climatology. The systems from climate anomalies. These impacts in the allowed continual updates of information, and U.S. have further promoted the growth in the the development and delivery of near real-time use of climate data and information to more climate information, coupled with wide use of effectively react, manage, and compete. PCs. Everyone could access a wealth of climate Climate information has taken on greater value. information quickly and at low cost. This One reflection of this in the business world has enhanced use of climate information has helped been the development and use of “weather create greater awareness of the value of applied derivatives” during the 1990s, a means of climatology. insuring against climatological risk (Zeng The above-mentioned fast access was 2000). The growing “weather market” of today facilitated by another critical step forward—the is a fixture of private firms who supply a variety development of inexpensive means to quickly of climate products, including derivatives and collect data, and to transmit climate data and risk models, to weather-sensitive firms. information. This included satellites and the One of the applied climate products long Internet. These allowed real time transmittal of sought by weather-sensitive entities has been data and quick access to it, a huge step forward. accurate long-term climate predictions. The past Closely coupled with this advance were the 15 years have seen major advances in climate establishment of new climate service/research prediction quality, related to a greater centers, which had been fostered by the understanding of the climate system such as the National Climate Program, as well as the effects of El Nino on the nation’s climate. Government predictions have improved, both in agencies involved in climate services and by accuracy and formats needed by users. Private private sector partners is needed to educate and forecasters now work more closely with firms demonstrate how to use climate information and to interpret predictions to meet specific needs. the potential values apt to be realized from usage to manage climate risks. 3. SUMMARY There is no systematic collection of As stated, applied climatology has data on the impacts of climate extremes, and a moved into its golden age in service to society. national effort to begin such data collection is In a recent book, Thompson and Perry (1997) needed (NRC 1999). Uncertainty over impacts provide a broad, all-encompassing view of the under a changing future climate due to global world of applied climatology. They and 27 warming is a current challenge and one that will other applied climatologists prepared chapters continue. Some have predicted future climate on wide-ranging topics like climate effects on conditions exceed extremes sampled in the past tourism, glaciers, fisheries, and air pollution. 100 years, making use of existing climate- Hobbs (1997), in a sweeping assessment of impact regression models as predictors of future applied climatology, points to the growing impacts invalid. The implications of future awareness of applied climatology and climate changes remain a major challenge for increasing use of climate information. applied climatologists. However, not all things are occurring at Resolution of these four issues: better an optimum level. Some problems still face the training, stabilization of weather measurements, field. Ironically, teaching of applied climatology better information on climate impacts, and is too limited and often not done at many effects of global warming induced climate colleges and universities. To be effective, change need to accomplished to realize the full quality instruction in applied climatology potential of applied climatology. requires interdisciplinary training and Regardless, applied climatology is the experience (Changnon 1998). oldest atmospheric sciences activity in service A second concern relates to the to society and its most successful, now realizing adequacy of weather instrumentation and data
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses
    Climate change and human health RISKS AND RESPONSES Editors A.J. McMichael The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia D.H. Campbell-Lendrum London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom C.F. Corvalán World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland K.L. Ebi World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Rome, Italy A.K. Githeko Kenya Medical Research Institute, Kisumu, Kenya J.D. Scheraga US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA A. Woodward University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION GENEVA 2003 WHO Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data Climate change and human health : risks and responses / editors : A. J. McMichael . [et al.] 1.Climate 2.Greenhouse effect 3.Natural disasters 4.Disease transmission 5.Ultraviolet rays—adverse effects 6.Risk assessment I.McMichael, Anthony J. ISBN 92 4 156248 X (NLM classification: WA 30) ©World Health Organization 2003 All rights reserved. Publications of the World Health Organization can be obtained from Marketing and Dis- semination, World Health Organization, 20 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland (tel: +41 22 791 2476; fax: +41 22 791 4857; email: [email protected]). Requests for permission to reproduce or translate WHO publications—whether for sale or for noncommercial distribution—should be addressed to Publications, at the above address (fax: +41 22 791 4806; email: [email protected]). The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
    [Show full text]
  • Aristotle University of Thessaloniki School of Geology Department of Meteorology and Climatology
    1 ARISTOTLE UNIVERSITY OF THESSALONIKI SCHOOL OF GEOLOGY DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY School of Geology 541 24 – Thessaloniki Greece Tel: 2310-998240 Fax:2310995392 e-mail: [email protected] 25 August 2020 Dear Editor We have submitted our revised manuscript with title “Fast responses on pre- industrial climate from present-day aerosols in a CMIP6 multi-model study” for potential publication in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. We considered all the comments of the reviewers and there is a detailed response on their comments point by point (see below). I would like to mention that after uncovering an error in the set- up of the atmosphere-only configuration of UKESM1, the piClim simulations of UKESM1-0-LL were redone and uploaded on ESGF (O'Connor, 2019a,b). Hence all ensemble calculations and Figures were redone using the new UKESM1-0-LL simulations. Furthermore, a new co-author (Konstantinos Tsigaridis), who has contributed in the simulations of GISS-E2-1-G used in this work, was added in the manuscript. Yours sincerely Prodromos Zanis Professor 2 Reply to Reviewer #1 We would like to thank Reviewer #1 for the constructive and helpful comments. Reviewer’s contribution is recognized in the acknowledgments of the revised manuscript. It follows our response point by point. 1) The Reviewer notes: “Section 1: Fast response vs. slow response discussion. I understand the use of these concepts, especially in view of intercomparing models. Imagine you have to talk to a wider audience interested in the “effective response” of climate to aerosol forcing in a naturally coupled climate system.
    [Show full text]
  • Geography and Atmospheric Science 1
    Geography and Atmospheric Science 1 Undergraduate Research Center is another great resource. The center Geography and aids undergraduates interested in doing research, offers funding opportunities, and provides step-by-step workshops which provide Atmospheric Science students the skills necessary to explore, investigate, and excel. Atmospheric Science labs include a Meteorology and Climate Hub Geography as an academic discipline studies the spatial dimensions of, (MACH) with state-of-the-art AWIPS II software used by the National and links between, culture, society, and environmental processes. The Weather Service and computer lab and collaborative space dedicated study of Atmospheric Science involves weather and climate and how to students doing research. Students also get hands-on experience, those affect human activity and life on earth. At the University of Kansas, from forecasting and providing reports to university radio (KJHK 90.7 our department's programs work to understand human activity and the FM) and television (KUJH-TV) to research project opportunities through physical world. our department and the University of Kansas Undergraduate Research Center. Why study geography? . Because people, places, and environments interact and evolve in a changing world. From conservation to soil science to the power of Undergraduate Programs geographic information science data and more, the study of geography at the University of Kansas prepares future leaders. The study of geography Geography encompasses landscape and physical features of the planet and human activity, the environment and resources, migration, and more. Our Geography integrates information from a variety of sources to study program (http://geog.ku.edu/degrees/) has a unique cross-disciplinary the nature of culture areas, the emergence of physical and human nature with pathway options (http://geog.ku.edu/geography-pathways/) landscapes, and problems of interaction between people and the and diverse faculty (http://geog.ku.edu/faculty/) who are passionate about environment.
    [Show full text]
  • Earth System Climatology (ESS200A)
    EarthEarth SystemSystem ClimatologyClimatology (ESS200A)(ESS200A) Course Time Lectures: Tu, Th 9:00-10:20 Discussion: 3315 Croul Hall Text Book The Earth System, 2nd Edition, Kump, Kasting, and Crane, Prentice-Hall Global Physical Climatology, Hartmann; Academic Press Meteorology Today, 7th Edition, Ahrens, Brooks Cool. Grade Homework (40%), Final (60%) Homework Issued and due every Thursday ESS200A Prof. Jin-Yi Yu ESS200A Prof. Jin-Yi Yu CourseCourse DescriptionDescription A general description of the Earth climate system and its subcomponents: the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, ice, and solid earth. ESS200A Prof. Jin-Yi Yu SyllabusSyllabus Week 1 - Global Energy Balance Week 3-4: Ocean Planetary Energy Balance Basic Structure and Dynamics Greenhouse Effect Surface Ocean Circulation: Wind-Driven Atmospheric Composition and Structure Deep Ocean Circulation: Density-Driven Role of Cloud Week 4: Land Surface and Cryosphere Week 2 - Atmospheric General Circulation Land Surface Properties (Soil and Vegetation) Hydrostatic Balance Surface Energy and Water Balance General Circulation in the Troposphere Sea Ice and Land Ice General Circulation in the Stratosphere Climate Roles of Land Surface and Ice Jetstreams Regional Circulation Systems Week 5 – Climate Change and Variation Week 2-3 - Weather Past Climate Change Air Masses and Fronts Short-term Climate variation (ENSO, NAO) Mid-Latitude Cyclones Ozone Hole Tropical Hurricane *** FINAL (October 27, Thursday) *** ESS200A Prof. Jin-Yi Yu GlobalGlobal EnergyEnergy CycleCycle Planetary energy balance Energy absorbed by Earth = Energy emitted by Earth Role of the atmosphere Greenhouse effect Role of oceans Polarward energy transport Role of land surface not significant due to its low heat capacity (from Climate Change 1995) ESS200A Prof.
    [Show full text]
  • A Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Size in the Western North Pacific Using an Alternative Metric Thomas B
    Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2017 A Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Size in the Western North Pacific Using an Alternative Metric Thomas B. (Thomas Brian) McKenzie III Follow this and additional works at the DigiNole: FSU's Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected] FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES A CLIMATOLOGY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SIZE IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC USING AN ALTERNATIVE METRIC By THOMAS B. MCKENZIE III A Thesis submitted to the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science 2017 Copyright © 2017 Thomas B. McKenzie III. All Rights Reserved. Thomas B. McKenzie III defended this thesis on March 23, 2017. The members of the supervisory committee were: Robert E. Hart Professor Directing Thesis Vasubandhu Misra Committee Member Jeffrey M. Chagnon Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and certifies that the thesis has been approved in accordance with university requirements. ii To Mom and Dad, for all that you’ve done for me. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I extend my sincere appreciation to Dr. Robert E. Hart for his mentorship and guidance as my graduate advisor, as well as for initially enlisting me as his graduate student. It was a true honor working under his supervision. I would also like to thank my committee members, Dr. Vasubandhu Misra and Dr. Jeffrey L. Chagnon, for their collaboration and as representatives of the thesis process. Additionally, I thank the Civilian Institution Programs at the Air Force Institute of Technology for the opportunity to earn my Master of Science degree at Florida State University, and to the USAF’s 17th Operational Weather Squadron at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, HI for sponsoring my graduate program and providing helpful feedback on the research.
    [Show full text]
  • The Climatological Revolution of the Eighteenth Century (Until 2016) Franz Mauelshagen Over the Last Decade Or So, the History O
    The Climatological Revolution of the Eighteenth Century (until 2016) Franz Mauelshagen Over the last decade or so, the history of meteorology and climatology has developed rapidly, pushed, to some degree, by the question of anthropogenic global warming and its scientific foundations. Naturally, much of this research focuses on the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, while the early days of climatology around 1800 are still somewhat obscure. Reviewing the literature reveals that, up to this point, studies in the history of climate ideas and climate science before 1800 have focused exclusively on meteorology, turning the history of climatology into a by-product of technological progress in meteorological measurement (instruments, their standardization and homogenization) and data collection from about 1700 onwards. This approach has taken for granted that “climate” has always been a meteorological category—an assumption that does not withstand the test. In the context of Antique geography, from which the idea emerged, “climate” referred to a new method of determining the location of a certain place on the globe; the term’s invention parallels the invention of geography, in which context it continued to have little to do with meteorology or the atmosphere. Apparently, the traditional geographic definition of “climate” remained stable well into the eighteenth century. This raises the question of why “climate” finally emerged from its niche in geography to represent the abstract and complex “statistics of weather.” The answer will come from a thorough study of the early modern geographic tradition, particularly the development of physical geography from Varenius to Humboldt, which will change the narrative as well as the chronology of the emergence of climatology as a scientific discipline.
    [Show full text]
  • GEOG 321: Climatology
    Geography 321: Climatology Spring 2018, 4:00-5:20p, Monday and Wednesday, 220 Chapman (CRN 32334) Instructor: Patrick J. Bartlein, 154 Condon Hall, x6-4967, [email protected], OH: Th 2:00-3:30p. GTF: TBA Overview: The climate system is a set of environmental systems including the atmosphere, ocean, and biosphere, that are coupled to one another and vary over time and space, and climatology is the study of that system. This course covers the basics of energy and moisture in the climate system, atmospheric circulation processes and patterns, and the spatial and temporal variations of climate, including those produced by human action. The course will also trace the development of our understanding of the physical basis of climatology, the development of conceptual and numerical models of climate, and how complex systems like the Earth’s climate system are studied. Text: No textbook; .pdfs and URLs will be posted on Canvas, including links to current assessments of climate variations. We will also use entries from the Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences (2nd Ed), available electronically from the UO Library [link]. Prerequisites: Geog 141 (or similar preparation, with consent of instructor) Web Pages: Course web page: http://canvas.uoregon.edu/ Weather and climate page: http://geog.uoregon.edu/weather/ Supplemental materials page, syllabus, etc.: http://geog.uoregon.edu/bartlein/courses/geog321/ Grading: 100 pts. total. Two examinations (20 pts each, weeks 5 and 10), four quizzes (5 pts each), plus completion of ten exercises that involve the analysis of information from the Internet that illustrates the day-to-day and seasonal variations of weather and climate (4 pts each, 40 pts total for the exercises).
    [Show full text]
  • Introduction to Climatology
    © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC. NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC NOT FOR SALE Inc. © Eyewire, OR DISTRIBUTION NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION CHAPTER 1Introduction to Climatology © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTION those specializingNOT FOR in glaciology, SALE OR as wellDISTRIBUTION as special- Chapter at a Glance ized physical geographers, geologists, and ocean- Meteorology and Climatology ographers. The biosphere, which crosscuts the Scales in Climatology lithosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, and atmo- Subfields of Climatology sphere, includes the zone containing all life forms © Jones & BartlettClimatic Learning, Records andLLC Statistics © Joneson the& Bartlettplanet, including Learning, humans. LLC The biosphere NOT FOR SALE SummaryOR DISTRIBUTION NOT FORis examined SALE by OR specialists DISTRIBUTION in the wide array of life Key Terms sciences, along with physical geographers, geolo- Review Questions gists, and other environmental scientists. Questions for Thought The atmosphere is the component of the system © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLCstudied by climatologists ©and Jones meteorologists. & Bartlett Ho- Learning, LLC NOT FOR SALE OR DISTRIBUTIONlistic interactions betweenNOT the FORatmosphere SALE and OR DISTRIBUTION Climatology may be described as the scientific each combination of the “spheres” are important study of the behavior of the atmosphere—the contributors to the climate (Table 1.1), at scales thin gaseous layer surrounding Earth’s surface— from local to planetary. Thus, climatologists must integrated over time. Although this definition is draw on knowledge generated in several natural © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC © Jones & Bartlett Learning, LLC certainly acceptable, it fails to capture fully the and sometimes social scientific disciplines to un- NOTscope FOR of SALE climatology.
    [Show full text]
  • Geologic, Climatic, and Vegetation History of California
    GEOLOGIC, CLIMATIC, AND VEGETATION HISTORY OF CALIFORNIA Constance I. Millar I ntroduction The dawning of the “Anthropocene,” the era of human-induced climate change, exposes what paleoscientists have documented for decades: earth’s environment—land, sea, air, and the organisms that inhabit these—is in a state of continual flux. Change is part of global reality, as is the relatively new and disruptive role humans superimpose on environmental and climatic flux. Historic dynamism is central to understanding how plant lineages exist in the present—their journey through time illuminates plant ecology and diversity, niche preferences, range distributions, and life-history characteristics, and is essential grounding for successful conservation planning. The editors of the current Manual recognize that the geologic, climatic, and vegetation history of California belong together as a single story, reflecting their interweaving nature. Advances in the sci- ences of geology, climatology, and paleobotany have shaken earlier interpretations of earth’s history and promoted integrated understanding of the origins of land, climate, and biota of western North America. In unraveling mysteries about the “what, where, and when” of California history, the respec- tive sciences have also clarified the “how” of processes responsible for geologic, climatic, and vegeta- tion change. This narrative of California’s prehistory emphasizes process and scale while also portraying pic- tures of the past. The goal is to foster a deeper understanding of landscape dynamics of California that will help toward preparing for changes coming in the future. This in turn will inform meaningful and effective conservation decisions to protect the remarkable diversity of rock, sky, and life that is our California heritage.
    [Show full text]
  • Climatology and Landfall of Tropical Cyclones in the South- West Indian Ocean
    Western Indian OceanCLIMATOLOGY J. Mar. Sci. & Vol.LANDFALL 8, No. OF 1, T ROPIpp. 15–36,CAL CYC LONES2009 IN SW INDIAN OCEAN 15 © 2009 WIOMSA Climatology and Landfall of Tropical Cyclones in the South- West Indian Ocean Alberto F.Mavume1, Lars Rydberg2, Mathieu Rouault3 and Johann R.E. Lutjeharms4 1Universidade Eduardo Mondlane, Faculdade de Ciências, Departamento de Física, PO Box 257, Maputo, Mozambique; 2University of Gothenburg, Department of Earth Sciences, Oceanography, Box 460, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden; 3Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, 7700 Rondebosch, South Africa; 4Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, 7700 Rondebosch, South Africa Keywords: Tropical cyclones, Indian Ocean, Mozambique Channel, global change, sea surface temperatures, ENSO, landfall Abstract—The climatology of cyclone formation and behaviour in the South-West Indian Ocean, including landfall in Mozambique and Madagascar, has been investigated. The records used were obtained by merging track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre with data from La Reunion – Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre. During the period 1980-2007, 12.5 cyclones per year were formed; 85% of which in November-April (the cyclone season). The number of intense tropical cyclones increased from 36 during 1980-1993 to 56 during 1994-2007, parallel to a simultaneous but smaller decrease in the number of tropical storms. This increase in intense tropical cyclones occurred at the same time as an increase in the mean sea surface temperature of 0.12˚C. This temperature increase seems insufficient to explain the increased activity. In addition, investigating a longer record (1952-2007) from the same sources indicates a long-term decrease in cyclone frequency as well as in landfall, although this was simultaneous with a substantial increase (about 0.3˚C) in sea surface temperature.
    [Show full text]
  • Tropical Cyclone: Climatology
    ESCI 344 – Tropical Meteorology Lesson 5 – Tropical Cyclones: Climatology References: A Global View of Tropical Cyclones, Elsberry (ed.) The Hurricane, Pielke Tropical Cyclones: Their evolution, structure, and effects, Anthes Forecasters’ Guide to Tropical Meteorology, Atkinsson Forecasters Guide to Tropical Meteorology (updated), Ramage Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, Holland (ed.) Reading: Introduction to the Meteorology and Climate of the Tropics, Chapter 9 A Global View of Tropical Cyclones, Chapter 3 REQUIREMENTS FOR FORMATION In order for a tropical cyclone to form, the following general conditions must be present: Deep, warm ocean mixed layer. ◼ Sea-surface temperature at least 26.5C. ◼ Mixed layer depth of 45 meters or more. Relative maxima in absolute vorticity in the lower troposphere ◼ Need a preexisting cyclonic disturbance. ◼ Must be more than a few degrees of latitude from the Equator. Small values of vertical wind shear. ◼ Disturbance must be in deep easterly flow, or in a region of light upper- level winds. Mean upward vertical motion with humid mid-levels. GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGY Note: Most of the statistics given in this section are from Gray, W.M., 1985: Tropical Cyclone Global Climatology, WMO Technical Document WMO/TD-72, Vol. I, 1985. About 80 tropical cyclones per year world-wide reach tropical storm strength ( 34 kts). About 50 – 55 each year world-wide reach hurricane/typhoon strength ( 64 kts). The rate of occurrence globally is very steady. Global average annual variation is small (about 7%). Extreme variations are in the range of 16 to 22%. Variability within a particular region is much larger than global variability. Most (87%) form within 20 of the Equator.
    [Show full text]
  • Isotopes in Climatological Studies Environmental Isotopes Are Helping Us Understand the World's Climate by Kazimierz Rozanski and Roberto Gonfiantini
    Features Isotopes in climatological studies Environmental isotopes are helping us understand the world's climate by Kazimierz Rozanski and Roberto Gonfiantini X he fundamental motivation for the recent explosion radiation, which otherwise would escape into space. of interest in climate studies is the growing scientific Carbon dioxide and methane are the most important concern that rapidly expanding human impact on the greenhouse gases, the concentration of which in the air global ecosystem may significantly alter the world's has been increasing since the middle of last century, climate in the near future. The major source for this con- mQiniw K»nr tint nnhf Hii£» tr\ the* nmwrinn /»ftncnrnn_ cern is the observed change in the earth's atmosphere, tion of fossil fuels. (See Table 1.) probably the most vulnerable component of the entire The predictions on the onset and extent of the green- ecosphere. house effect are, however, admittedly imprecise due to Observation data clearly show that the concentration the complexity of environmental interactions, and the in air of some trace constituents such as carbon dioxide, still incomplete knowledge of global meteorological and methane, carbon monoxide, ozone, chlorofluoro-hydro- climatological mechanisms. For instance, we are still far carbons (CFCs), nitrogen and sulphur oxides, is chang- from achieving a thorough understanding of the pro- ing as a result of anthropogenic emissions. These cesses regulating the composition of the atmosphere and changes may have harmful, far-reaching consequences the feedback mechanisms that operate between the major in the near future via direct effects on the biosphere — compartments (atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, including human beings—and, indirectly, via the altera- geosphere) of the global ecosystem, and determine its tion of the life-supporting conditions.
    [Show full text]