Food Security and Nutrition F FSAU Food Security Analysis Unit March 2005 Monthly Brief Issued Highlights March 9, 2005

Political Developments: The newly elected President, Prime Minister, and several ministers concluded a peaceful ten day tour to Jowhar, Beletweyne, Galkayo, Garowe, Bossasso, and Baidoa during the first week of March. The continued progress towards establishing a government within the country is encouraging and will have profound effects on food and livelihood security.

Climate Climate: Most of the country remained dry during February as expected (middle of the long dry season-Jilaal). In the northwest, Todob rains began in the last few days of February, which is an indication of the start of the Gu rainy season in the area. Climate exprets at the Fifteenth Annual Markets Climate Outlook Forum (March 1-5) predict a high probablity of near to below normal Gu 2005 rains (page 2). Nutrition Markets: The Somalia and Somaliland shilling remained fairly constant for the last two months, i.e. 15,500 SOSH/US$ and 6,100 SLSH/US$. Both shillings are still lower in value than in 2000 (50% and 100% for SOSH and SLSH, respectively), but have steadily gained in value since they reached a Agriculture peak depreciated value. Imported commodities (i.e. petrol, sugar, vegetable oil, etc.) tend to follow the overall trend of both exchange rates (page 2).

Livestock Nutrition: Acute malnutrition rates continue to remain high in Juba Valley, about 23% MUAC <12.5cm) and over a quarter of the children screened are at risk of malnutrition (MUAC 12.5-13.4 cm) (Jan.2005). Rapid nutrition assessments in Galgadud region (Harale and Balanbale) indicate high levels of acute Emerging malnutrition, between 19.5% and 24% (MUAC <12.5cm) (Nutrition Update, Feb. 2005) (page 2). Regional Agriculture: Harvesting of off season crops (sesame and maize) in Shabelle and Juba regions is Issues ongoing and expected to continue through March and early April, however, production levels are less than anticipated due to insect damage, hot winds, and moisture stress. Deyr season sorghum production is in the markets and prices are significantly reduced. This has led to a significant improvement in terms of trade (sorghum to daily wage rates), a 70% increase over December 2004 (page 3).

Livestock: Rangeland resources throughout the region remain adequate, despite being in the middle of the long dry season (Jilaal). Livestock body conditions are good and improving overall. Shoat exports declined 54% in February over January, following the end of the peak Hajj demand season. Export quality shoat prices fell, following the decline in demand (page 3).

Emerging Regional Issues:

• Many pastoralists in Humanitarian Emergency areas in the North are unable to benefit fully from adequate dry season rangeland resources due to significantly reduced herd sizes, excessive debt levels and widespread and diffuse destitution (page 4). • An estimated 22,000 people along the northern coast line require sustained resource transfer for the next 8 months, according to the Inter-agency Tsunami Assessment Mission report (page 4). FSAU - Somalia • Civil insecurity continues to disrupt pastoral and agropastoral livelihoods in parts of Kalson Towers, (page 4). Parklands • Clan conflict intensified from Luuq and Garbaharey, thus worsening the Box 1230 Village Market Humanitarian Emergency in this area by disrupting markets and livelihoods (page 4). Nairobi, Kenya

Tel.: +254 20 374 5734 Gu Rains Hagaa Deyr Rains Jilaal Dry Season Fax: +254 20 374 5098 2005 email: 2004 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr [email protected] www.unsomalia.net/ Above normal Deyr Above normal rainfall FSAU/ Poor rains following three rains in most of the leads to livestock successive years of Humanitarian country leads to deaths in drought drought in the north. eme rgency above averge cereal affected Northwest and Pockets of poor rainfall in identified in production and increased risk to the Central and Southern four areas. improved pastoral flooding in the South. regions. conditions.

Somalia Seasonal Timeline & Key Events

1 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Monthly Brief, March 2005 Map 2: IGAD Annual Climate Forum Map1: February rainfall as a Climate Outlook for the Greater Horn of Africa percent of long term mean (March- May 2005) ost of the country remained dry during

MFebruary, which is normal since it is the middle of the long dry season (Jilaal) and little or no rainfall is normally received during this month (Map 1).

Pockets in the south, especially in Juba Valley, received some light showers, which improved the off-season crop conditions, especially in parts of Bu’aale district ( Region). In the northwest, Todob rains began the last few days of February, which is an indication of the start of the Gu rainy season in the area.

Climate experts predict near to below normal Gu 2005 rains. Climate experts in the Fifteenth Climate Outlook Forum (March 1- Source:NOAA /FEWSNET Source:NOAA /FEWSNET 5, 2005) concluded that there is a high probability for near to below normal rainfall be below normal (Map 2). Gu rains contribute to 70-75% of total annual food and fodder in Somalia during the coming Gu 2005 season. production, therefore are of significant importance to overall food security. If the Gu 2005 There is a 40% probability that Gu rains will rains are below normal this will likely reverse the limited recovery achieved following the be normal and a 35% probability that they will exceptionally good Deyr 2004/05 rains. Nutrition Markets alkayo: The limited services available for the malnourished Gchildren in Somalia have forced families with severely he Somalia and the Somaliland Shilling remained nearly constant malnourished children to travel long distances to Galkayo in Tagainst the US dollar for the last two months (January and February search of thereapeutic care. An increasing trend in the TFC 2005). Values ranged between 15,900 and 15,400 SOSH/US$ and 6,020 admissions (from 51 in September 2004 to 176 in December and 6,150 SLSH/US$. The Somali Shilling gained value at about 4% 2004) was observed. Deaths within the TFC was also recorded in February with respect to January, while the Somaliland Shilling lost with about 21 deaths reported in January 2005. value slightly at about 2% over the same time period (Figure 1). Galgadud: Rapid nutrition assessments conducted in Harale and Balanbale villages of Galgaduud Region in December 2004 Both currencies are still lower in value than they were in 2000, around indicate high levels of acute malnutrition (MUAC < 12.5cm or 50% and 100% depreciation for SOSH and SLSH, respectively. The oedema) of 19.5% and 24% respectively. overall trend for both shillings, however, is that they are steadily gaining in value since they reached peak depreciation levels. The SOSH peaked Juba Valley: An FSAU rapid assessment in Badhadhe town at 23,500 SOSH/US$ in October 2001, while SLSH peaked much later (January 2005) using MUAC indicates total acute malnutrition rate in July 2003 at 7,870 SLSH/US$ (Figure 1). of about 23% (MUAC <12.5 cm) and over a quarter of the children screened are at risk of malnutrition (MUAC 12.5-13.4 cm). Imported commodities such as sugar, vegetable oil, rice, and petrol are Qualitative information indicates an increased prevalence of markets - nutrition climate closely linked with exchange rate. For instance, in Shabelle Valley most common diseases in Badhadhe such as diarrhoea, malaria, ARI, imported commodity prices increased significantly following the SOSH skin infections and intestinal parasites. Bilharziasis cases have also devaluation, but began to decrease when the shilling gained value. It is been reported. MCH attendance numbers slightly declined since expected that prices of imported commodities would continue their September 2004, but this is mainly due to exhaustion of some of moderate decline in most markets if the shillings continue to appreciate. the drugs and vaccines provided to the facility. Map 3: Current Overall Nutrition Situation

Figure 1: Fluctuation of Somali Shilling in Mogadishu Market, Alula Kandala DJIBOUTI

Zeylac Gulf of Aden Las Qoray/ Bosaso February 2005 Badhan Lughaye Awdal Baki Berbera Sanag Borama Erigavo Iskushuban W.Galbeed Sheikh El Afwein 25,000 20 Gabiley Bari Exchange Rate: Sosh per Dollar Odweine Hargeisa Caynaba Xudun Gardo Burco Taleh Bender Beila Percent Change as compared to Jan 0 Togdheer Sool Buhodle Garowe Lasanod Nugal Eyl 20,000 Burtinle

-20 Galkayo Jariban r Goldogob h PIA Adado -40 IO H Abudwaq Hobyo T 15,000 E Dusa Mareb

n Galgadud a e El Bur Haradhere c -60 El Barde Belet W eyne O n Bakol ia d Rab-Dhuure Hudur Hiran n El Der I Dolo Bulo Burti 10,000 Luuq Wajid Tieglo -80 Belet Hawa Jalalaqsi Aden Yabal Baidoa

Percent Changeof Sos Jowhar Adale Qansah Dere Somali Shilling per Dolla per Somali Shilling Wanle W eyne El Waq Bay M.Shabelle Bur Hakaba Balad -100 Afgoye Bardera Dinsor %[ Banadir FSAU Qoryoley MOGADISHU Kurtun W arrey 5,000 Sakow Marka M. Juba L.Shabelle Buale Sablale Brava

-120 KENYA Jilib Afmadow

L. Juba Jamame

0 -140 Kismayo

0 2 4 4 Badhadhe -00 -0 -02 -0 -04 0 ul an-01 n an-03 n ec- Jan-0 J J Jul-01 Ja Jul J Jul-03 Ja Jul D Feb-05 Month/Year

2 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Monthly Brief, March 2005

Agriculture Figure 2: Average Cereal Prices (aggregated across markets) 0.6 ff season crop production (maize and sesame) in Shabelle and Juba Juba Valley (Maize White) Shabelle Valley (Maize White) regions is expected to be less than anticipated due to losses incurred NorthWest (Imported Rice) O 0.5 NorthEast (Imported Rice) Sorghum Belt (Sorghum Red) from dry hot winds, insect damage, and moisture stress. Off season crop Central (Rice Imported) harvesting is ongoing and is expected to increase through March and 0.4 April. 0.3

In Shabelle, harvesting off season rainfed sesame is underway, but overall Kg $) per (US Price 0.2 production is expected to be less than anticipated. Early planted sesame, especially irrigated sesame, was damaged by insects (antigastara spp.) 0.1

that were prevalent due to high mist levels during January and early 0 February. Farmers attempted multiple replanting, but without success. Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Late planted sesame is reported to be performing better in some areas. In Month pockets, off season standing maize crops, particularly where irrigation Figure 3: Terms of Trade Cereal To Labour infrastructure is readily accessible, is at different stages of development (aggregated across markets) 25.00 and is performing well. In Wanle-weyn area harvesting of rainfed sorghum Sorghum Belt Shabelle Valley (the main crop for this area) is ongoing and is easily seen in heaps drying Juba Valley 20.00 NorthEast in the sun. Price of red sorghum is around 1,500 SOSH/kg, while maize NorthWest Central is 2,500 SOSH/kg. 15.00

In Juba, harvesting off season maize and sesame crops is ongoing, but 10.00 production is also less than anticipated because of heavy losses due to

pest damage and moisture stress. Standing dsheks crops are at different Day's Labour per kg Cereal 5.00 stages (between vegetative to filing stages) and farmers are continuing to 0.00 plant maize in areas where water is receding. Farmers are no longer Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 05 05 planting sesame in recessional areas, since the longer production cycle of agriculturelivestock - * North and Central - Bossaso, Garowe,Month Galkayo, Hargesia,Lasanod; sesame means it is at greater risk to spoilage if the Gu rains start in April. Juba Valley - Afmadow, Buale, Kismayo, Jamame, Hagar; Sorghum Belt - Bardera, Belet Weyne, Hudur, Baidoa; Shabelle Valley - Afgoye, Merka, Deyr season sorghum from Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Hiran is in the Qoryoley, Jowhar markets, leading to significantly reduced prices (Figure 2). For the poor, the drop in sorghum prices translates into a dramatic improvement in agricultural activities are fairly good as threshing panicles of terms of trade, i.e. a daily wage now secures 21 kgs of sorghum, a 70% sorghum, harvesting maize and sesame, as well as some planting increase from December 2004 (Figure 3). Labour opportunities in and weeding are ongoing. Livestock eneral pasture and water conditions throughout Somalia are In the northwest Todob rains began in the last few days of February, which Gstill adequate despite being in the middle of the Jilaal (dry) is an indication of the start of the Gu (long) rainy season in the area. season. Generally this Jilaal season for pastoralists is mild compared Localized rains were received in the northwest in the areas adjacent to the with similar past seasons. Livestock body conditions are reported Somali region of Ethiopia, such as Borama, Hargeysa, and Gabiley Districts to be good throughout in response to the improved range resources. on the 26th – 28th of February. The late February rains have replenished dry river beds and boreholes along the coastal belt of Awdal Region. In the Humanitarian Emergency areas in the north, many pastoralists are unlikely to reap the full benefits from these positive In the second week of February the immigrant livestock from Shinile area trends because extremely reduced herd sizes have negatively of the Somali region of Ethiopia left the coastal areas of Awdal region and impacted on herd and pastoral livelihood recovery. The general returned to their own areas. This has relieved the additional pressure on scarcity of pack camels is limiting pastoral mobility and is forcing the pasture and water conditions in Awdal. Livestock body condition and many to stay near main water points. This limited mobility in turn reproduction in Awdal Region is encouraging. Calving of camels has is exerting excessive pressure on range resource around these already begun and shoats are kidding. As a result of these positive points. Goat milk is reported to be available and supply is developments, milk production and livestock marketability is reported to improving, but other essential livestock products, like camel milk be normal. are still not available in these areas. Given the large camel losses (up to 80%) camel milk is not anticipated until the end of 2005 In mid-February localized showers were received in parts of Sako and when camel calving begins. southern and western rangelands of Buale in southern Somalia. While water and pasture resources have improved, most areas are under warm, dry, and windy conditions associated with the Jilaal spell. Pastoralists in Figure 4: Livestock Exports from Berbera and Bossaso Buale, Hagar, and Sakow Districts are moving to areas of better water and Export Quality Prices resources. In Hagar District, for example, pressure exerted on range 450 40 Camel resources is mounting, thus worsening the condition of these vital Cattle 400 Shoats 35 resources. Availability and prices of milk are regarded normal in the area. Bossaso 350 Burao 30 Galkayo As expected, livestock exports from Berbera and Bossaso ports are 300 Hargeisa s 25 declining following the end of the booming Hajj season. A total of 60,556 250 20 and 70,834 sheep and goats were exported in February from the Berbera 200 and Bossaso ports, respectively. This is a decline of nearly 54 percent 15 150 $) (US Head per Price over the number exported in January. Cattle exports declined in Berbera Volume in Thousand 10 100 port from 14,695 head in January to 11,303 head in February (23%

50 5 decline), while exports from Bossaso increased from 5,218 head to 8,658

0 0 head (66% increase). No camels were exported from Berbera in the months

4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ------l- - - t- - - - - of January and February, while Bossaso exported 19 and 128 camels during n b r r y n u g p c v c n b a e a p a u J u e o e a e J F M A M J A S O N D J F Months the same period, respectively (Figure 4).

3 FSAU Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Monthly Brief, March 2005 Integrated Food Security Analysis: Emerging Regional Issues

Northwest Region Northeast Isolated solitary adult locusts are reported on the northern coast of Karin area (120 km east of Despite being in the middle of the Jilaal Berbera). The Emergency Prevention System for Trans Boundary Animal and Plant Pests and (dry) season, pasture and water Disease (EMPRES) in Hargeisa is planning a mission to assess the incidence and infestation conditions in most areas are good. levels. Overstretched rangeland resources in coastal areas of Awdal were relieved of in-migrated Many pastoralists, however, are unable livestock when pastoralists from the Shinile area of the Somali Region of Ethiopia returned to their to benefit fully as the result of home areas in mid-February. decimated livestock herds, excessive debt levels, depleted assets and wide-

CALUULA # spread and diffuse destitution. # # QANDALA # # Hiran Region # ZE YLAC BOSSAS O # # LAASQORAY # Bargaal # # An inter-agency Tsunami Assessment

# LUG HAYE Social support activities in the Awdal CEERIGAA# BO # Xaafuun estimates 22,000 people along the Tsu- # BER BERA # BAKI ISKUSHUBAN # # region are at its peak due to Zakat # Sanag # BORAMA Bari # nami affected coastal areas are in need # W. Galbeed # SHEIK H CEEL #AFWEYN payments on saved capitals in kind GE BILEY # # QARDHO BANDARBEYL A #BURCO # of sustained resource transfer for the OWDWEYNE # # # HARGEY SA XUDUN TALE EX and in cash. Farmers (middle and # # next 8 months. The most affected ar- CAYNABO# Sool better-off wealth groups) have Togdheer # eas include , Bender Beyla, # # th BUUHOODLE LAAS CAANOOD GA ROO W E donated 1/10 of their harvested # Kulub and Dharin Raqas. EYL Nugal ## grains to poor wealth groups for BURTINLE # #

religious Zakat payments. Cereal JA RI# IB AN GA LDO# GOB # GAALKACYO prices have dropped due to the # # Central Regions

good deyr harvest in the south and CABUDWAAQ# # CADAADO Mudug In response to Jilaal (dry) season, Somali region of Ethiopia. # DHUUSAMARREEB# livestock are migrating from HOBYO ## southern to northern Mudug areas BELET W EY NE Galgadud # # CEEL BARDE # # XARARDHEERE# CEEL BUUR of Jariban and Goldogob. Warring Rab Dhuure Bakol DOOLOW # XUDUR Hiran # # # TAYEEG LO W CEEL DHEER factions in the region have agreed to Bakool # BULO BURTO BEL ET XAAWO LUUQ # # # # # WAAJID # # ADAN YABAAL an unconditional ceasefire, GA RBA HAAREY JALALAQSI Civil insecurity continues to # # BAYDHABA # M. Shabelle separation of the militia and BUUR HAKABA # QANSAX DHEERE JOW HAR disrupt pastoral and agro- CEEL WAQ # # # # CADALE# WANLA W EYN # # nomination of committees from both Gedo DIINSOOR BAL CAD # pastoral livelihoods in parts # # Bay BAARDHEERE AFGOOYE # LEGEND: # # # MOGADISHU sides for peaceful negotiations. of the region. Abnormal QORYOOLEY PHASE CLASSIFICATION # SAAKOW # MARKA # KURTUNWAAREY # # livestock migration is M. Juba SAB LAALE Humanitarian Emergency (level 1) BU'AALE # # L. Shabelle # BAR AA WE # reported in Rabdhure and El- Xagar # # Humanitarian Emergency (level 2)

JI L IB Barde. Sorghum is in the AFMADOW # # L. Juba JA MAA ME Acute Livelihood Crisis markets and prices are # Shabelle # KISMA AYO# Alert falling, leading to large # The Shabelle river is at its lowest BADHAA DHE improvements in terms of # Non-Alert, with chronic vulnerability level resulting in limited and trade between shoats/ # # Chronic conditions (sustained degree of difficult gravity irrigations in sorghum and labour/ food insecurity for over three years Janale, Qoryoley and sorghum. Shopkeepers and Areas with IDPs Kurtunwarey (), traders report debt levels are as well as in Jowhar (Middle reducing. Map Source: FSAU Technical Series Report No.IV.3, March 2005 Shabelle). Off-season crops are significantly reduced due to hot emerging regional issues emerging regional winds and outbreaks of insect Gedo pests. The export of dry immature Juba Poor agro-pastorals received around Juba limes and over 6000 MT of 3-5 bags of sorghum and 2-3 heads A high level of off-season crop loss (maize and charcoal through El-ma’an Port of shoats as religious Zakat sesame) is reported due to high infestation levels were reported, indicating further donations. Juba river water levels of insect pests. Some livestock movements in environmental degradation in Gedo dropped in February as search of water and pasture is reported in Salagle, between Shabelle Valley and Bay compared to last month. Clan Nusdunia, and Basra. Civil insecurity has regions. conflict intensified from Luq to deteriorated and incidents of car hijacking, looting resulting in properties, and shootings have intensified in disruption of markets and other Bu’ale and Hagar districts. activities in the region.

FSAU's website: FSAU's website will be launched int he first week of April (www.fsausomalia.org)

Recent Reports: FSAU 2005 Post Deyr Analysis, Technical Series Report No. IV.3, March 2, 2005. Tsunami Inter Agency Assessment Mission Report - Hafun to Gara'ad, Northeast Somalia, to be released 2nd week of March 2005.

Workshops: FSAU Nutrition Team Capacity Building and Planning Meeting, Nairobi , February 21- March 7, 2005.

** Agencies are encouraged to submit information on reports, surveys and forthcoming workshops to be highlighted in this section**

Technical and Managerial Support Funding Agencies Technical Partners

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