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Minnesota State Hazard Mitigation Plan 2014 Department of Public Safety

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Minnesota State Hazard Mitigation Plan 2014 Department of Public Safety Minnesota State Hazard Mitigation Plan 2014 Department of Public Safety Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management Approved: March 11, 2014 Adopted: March 14, 2014 MINNESOTA ALL-HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Section 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Hazard Mitigation Programs 4 1.2 Plan Organization 5 1.3 Hazard Mitigation Funding 6 2. Section 2: Planning Process 8 2.1 Plan Update Process 8 2.2 Agency Coordination 12 2.4 Monitoring, Evaluating, and Updating the Plan 14 2.5 Monitoring Progress of Mitigation Activities 16 3. Section 3: State Profile 21 3.1 Geographic Characteristics 21 3.2 Climate 24 3.3 Demographic Characteristics 25 3.4 Development Trends 29 3.5 Climate Change 30 3.5.1 Historical Trends 30 3.5.2 Climate Change Risks 32 3.5.3 Climate Change Adaptation 33 4. Section 4: Natural Hazards Risk Assessment 35 4.1 Organizational Update 35 4.2 Presidential Disaster Declaration History 36 4.3 Identifying Hazards 42 4.3.1 Methodology for Ranking Hazards 43 4.4 Vulnerability Assessment by County 46 4.4.1 Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Collection and Integration 47 4.5 Natural Hazards 52 4.5.1 Flooding 52 4.5.2 Dam / Levee Failure 76 ii MINNESOTA ALL-HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN 4.5.3 Wildfire 85 4.5.4 Windstorms 104 4.5.5 Tornadoes 116 4.5.6 Hail 129 4.5.7 Lightning 139 4.5.8 Winter Storms 142 4.5.9 Erosion 146 4.5.10 Land Subsidence (Sinkholes and Karst) 153 4.5.12 Drought 158 4.5.13 Extreme Heat 166 4.5.14 Extreme Cold 171 4.5.15 Earthquake 174 4.6 Other Hazards 182 4.6.1 Terrorism 182 4.6.2 Infectious Disease Outbreak 184 4.6.3 Fires (Structures and Vehicles) 188 4.6.4 Nuclear Generating Plant Incidents 190 4.6.5 Hazardous Material Incidents 191 4.6.6 Transportation Incidents 194 4.6.7 Ground and Surface Water Supply Contamination 199 4.7 Vulnerability of State Facilities 204 5. Section 5: Mitigation Strategy 215 5.1 Update 215 5.2 State Plan Goals, Strategies and Actions 217 5.3 Natural Hazard Mitigation 221 5.4 Mitigation Project Implementation 232 5.5 Inventory of Hazard Mitigation Programs, Policies, and Funding 235 5.6 State Capability Assessment 253 5.7 Repetitive and Severe Repetitive Loss 260 5.8 Local Capability Assessment 261 6. Section 6: Coordination of Local Mitigation Planning 264 iii MINNESOTA ALL-HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN 6.1. Local Funding and Technical Assistance 264 6.2 Local Mitigation Plan Updates 267 6.3 Mitigation Success Stories in Minnesota 269 6.4 Funding Update 271 6.5 Local Plan Integration 278 6.6 Prioritizing Local Assistance 281 INDEX OF FIGURES Figure 1 Minnesota Location Map ..............................................................................................................21 Figure 2 Land Cover in Minnesota ..............................................................................................................23 Figure 3 State of Minnesota Population Density .........................................................................................27 Figure 4 Projected Population Change for 2010-2025 ................................................................................28 Figure 5 Upper Midwest Precipitation Extremes, 1910-2012 .....................................................................32 Figure 6. FEMA Disaster Declarations by Region, 1964-2013. .................................................................38 Figure 7 Region 1, FEMA Disaster Declarations by County ......................................................................39 Figure 8 Region 2, FEMA Disaster Declarations by County ......................................................................39 Figure 9 Region 3, FEMA Disaster Declarations by County ......................................................................40 Figure 10 Region 4, FEMA Disaster Declarations by County ....................................................................40 Figure 11 Region 5, FEMA Disaster Declarations by County ....................................................................41 Figure 12 Region 6, FEMA Disaster Declarations by County ....................................................................41 Figure 13 County perceived risk of top four Minnesota Natural Hazards ..................................................51 Figure 14 Statewide Flood Risk Assessment: Flood Boundary Analysis Source. ......................................59 Figure 15 100-year floodplains in Minnesota, as defined by DFIRM, Q3, or HAZUS Model ...................60 Figure 16 Potential Economic Loss by County, 100-year flood .................................................................65 Figure 17 Potential Estimated Building Loss to Total Building Exposure by County, 100-year flood ......66 Figure 18 Percent increase in very heavy precipitation from 1958-2011 ....................................................75 Figure 19 Percent per decade trend in the sum of the top 10 wettest days in a year for 1901- 2000. .........76 Figure 20 Dams by Owner Type in Minnesota ...........................................................................................79 Figure 21 Minnesota Wildland Urban Interface 2000 .................................................................................87 Figure 22 Firefighters at a Peat Fire in Gully, MN .....................................................................................88 Figure 23. Peatlands and peatland inventory data in Minnesota .................................................................90 iv MINNESOTA ALL-HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN Figure 24 Average wildfires per Month in Minnesota, 1985-2012 .............................................................91 Figure 25 Size and Cause of Wildfire in 2012: Campfire, Equipment, Arson/Incendiary, Railroad, and Smoking ..............................................................................................................................................93 Figure 26 Size and Cause of Wildfire in 2012: Debris, Lightning, Power line, Misc. and Unknown ........94 Figure 27 Losses from wildfire by county, 2003-2012 ...............................................................................95 Figure 28. Acres burned by year in Minnesota, 1985-2012 ........................................................................96 Figure 29 Number of wildfires by year in Minnesota, 1985-2012 ..............................................................97 Figure 30 Reported sustained winds or wind gusts 65+ knots, 1955-2012 ...............................................106 Figure 31 Wind Zones in the United States ...............................................................................................108 Figure 32 Annual Frequency of Wind Speeds greater than 65 Knots, 1955-2012 ....................................109 Figure 33 Tornado Tracks and Touchdowns, 1950-2012 ..........................................................................119 Figure 34 Historical Tornado Frequency per Year, 1950-2012 ................................................................120 Figure 35 Severe Hail Events by County, 1955-2012 ...............................................................................132 Figure 36 Severe Hail Event Frequency, 1955-2012 ................................................................................133 Figure 37 Mean Annual Snowfall in Minnesota .......................................................................................143 Figure 38 Winter Precipitation Percentage of 1982-2012 Climatological Average ..................................145 Figure 39 Example of Bluff Erosion .........................................................................................................150 Figure 40 Example of Streambank erosion before event and after restoration, Rapidan Township .........151 Figure 41 Karst Drainage and Related Landforms ....................................................................................155 Figure 42 Karst Features in Minnesota .....................................................................................................155 Figure 43 Karst Landforms in Minnesota..................................................................................................156 Figure 44 Sequence of drought occurrence and impacts for commonly accepted drought types..............159 Figure 45 U.S. Drought Monitor for Minnesota, June 25, 2013 ...............................................................160 Figure 46 Drought Severity Index by Division, Week of June 29, 2013 ..................................................161 Figure 47 Crop Moisture Index by Division, Week of June 29, 2013 .......................................................162 Figure 48 Estimated amount of crop loss in dollars due to drought, by county, 2010-2012 .....................163 Figure 49 Palmer Drought Severity Index for Minnesota .........................................................................165 Figure 50 Upper Midwest Maximum Temperature Extremes, 1910-2013 ...............................................169 Figure 51 Peak Ground Acceleration with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years .............................175 Figure 52 Historical Earthquake Magnitudes on the Richter Scale ...........................................................179 Figure 53 Minnesota Freight Railroad Map ..............................................................................................196 Figure 54 Vulnerable Aquifers in Minnesota ............................................................................................200 v MINNESOTA ALL-HAZARD MITIGATION
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