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Voltage / 3639 Voltage / 3639 COVERAGE INITIATED ON: 2021.04.27 LAST UPDATE: 2021.05.10 Shared Research Inc. has produced this report by request from the company discussed in the report. The aim is to provide an “owner’s manual” to investors. We at Shared Research Inc. make every effort to provide an accurate, objective, and neutral analysis. In order to highlight any biases, we clearly attribute our data and findings. We will always present opinions from company management as such. Our views are ours where stated. We do not try to convince or influence, only inform. We appreciate your suggestions and feedback. Write to us at [email protected] or find us on Bloomberg. Research Coverage Report by Shared Research Inc. Voltage / 3639 RCoverage LAST UPDATE: 2021.05.10 Research Coverage Report by Shared Research Inc. | https://sharedresearch.jp INDEX How to read a Shared Research report: This report begins with the trends and outlook section, which discusses the company’s most recent earnings. First-time readers should start at the business section later in the report. Executive summary ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 Key financial data ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Recent updates ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 Highlights ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6 Trends and outlook ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Quarterly trends and results ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Business ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 18 Business model --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 E-books, video, and consumer operations business ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 Analysis of profitability ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 Market and value chain---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 Main competitors ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 34 Strengths and weaknesses ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 38 Historical performance and financial statements ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 41 Income statement ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 41 Balance sheet ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 44 Cash flow statement -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 45 Historical performance ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 46 Other information ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 51 History -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 51 News and topics ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 52 Top management and corporate governance --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 53 Dividend policy -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 54 Major shareholders --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 55 Employees --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 55 Terminology (alphabetical) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 57 Profile ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 57 02/58 Voltage / 3639 RCoverage LAST UPDATE: 2021.05.10 Research Coverage Report by Shared Research Inc. | https://sharedresearch.jp Executive summary Business overview ◤ Voltage’s business centers on entertainment content, chiefly stories about love and the challenges associated with it. The company plans, produces, develops, sells, and manages this content. The core platform is smartphone apps that distribute romance stories for women. The company classifies its businesses by target audience. The majority of its revenue comes from the distribution of smartphone game apps for Japanese-speaking women. In FY06/20, this business generated revenue of JPY4.0bn (60.3% of total revenue). ◤ Voltage’s romance apps for women are interactive. In the mainstay written story apps, the player herself is the heroine, and she chooses the storyline and character, building her own romance adventure. The company also provides avatar-based apps (game-like apps, the player dresses up her avatar) and card-based apps (players build up card collections and cultivate the characters). Some content is available for free, but the company charges for higher-end content and information services. Players purchase stories, gacha (lottery) prizes, and in-game items, then create virtual romances by choosing a side story and paying to move events along in a favorable way. ◤ The company produces all its own content. Nearly 50% of revenue comes from three core titles: (1) 100 Love Scenes+ (written story, average monthly revenue of around JPY70mn, launched in 2017, with the underlying romance story app launched in 2006); (2) Tenka Touitsu Koi no Ran‒Love Ballad (avatar-based, around JPY80mn, launched in 2014); and (3) Roppongi Sadistic Night (card-based, around JPY90mn, launched in 2015). The company sustains readership of its main titles by offering daily, complete-in-one issues and longer, serial pieces. ◤ In addition to its smartphone game apps offering content for Japanese-speaking women, the company distributes content for English-speaking and Asian women (revenue of JPY1.5bn in FY06/20), and content for men (JPY1.0bn). Voltage also concentrates on building up its intellectual property used in in-person events and merchandise (JPY82mn), as well as console games and videos. In 2019, the company moved into a new genre: e-books. The company runs its own e-comics label and stores (in FY06/20, JPY41mn in revenue from e-books, videos, and consumer operations). ◤ The company’s billing model in Japan is to provide free-to-play mobile content, charging for in-game items mainly on a pay-as-you-go basis (more than 80% of revenue). The remainder (less than 20% of revenue) comes from unit billing, by the story. Voltage says more than 100,000 people download its apps each month, and on average 60,000 of these (in Japan) become paying users. Average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) amounts to JPY7,000 to JPY8,000 per month. Shared Research calculates the company’s average monthly revenue at nearly JPY550mn (JPY6.6bn in FY06/20), including content for English-speaking and Asian women. ◤ Voltage’s target customers are women who enjoy fictional stories (aged 19–44, about 20mn people in Japan). The company estimates its potential market in Japan at around JPY100bn (around 2016–2017). The company breaks down this market into casual customers (market value of JPY10.0bn, monthly average ARPPU of several thousand JPY), casual core customers (JPY40.0bn, several thousand JPY to JPY10,000), and core customers (JPY50.0bn, JPY10,000 to tens of thousands of JPY). Including overseas customers, the company estimates that casual customers (players of written story apps) account for more than 30% of total revenue, casual core customers (avatar-based and card-based apps) for more than 40%, core customers (card-based and voice actor-type apps) for around 20%, and others (in-person events, e-books, consumer operations, and others) for less than 5%. ◤ The company aims to generate sustainable growth by cycling earnings from existing titles back into recently released titles and new areas. By “existing titles,” the company refers to the story apps business (excluding content for Asian women).
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