Year-end 2020

SPOTLIGHT Market Watch Savills Research Office Mumbai Market Watch - Office – Year-end 2020 Mumbai Market Watch - Office – Year-end 2020

GDP growth (annual % change) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 -12 China, People's Republic of United Kingdom United States Asia Pacific World

Source IMF World Economic Outlook (graph represents IMF WEOs till Oct 2020)

COVID impact on sectoral GDP (%)

-47.0% -50.3% Trade, Hotels -15.6% Construction -8.6% -5.3% -39.3% Finance, -8.1% Manufacturing 0.6% INDIAN Real Estate

Q1 FY 21 The crash Among the numerous features of these Projections and hope 3.4% Q2 FY 21 ECONOMY By the middle of the year, global agencies Atma Nirbhar Bharat Schemes, the At its peak, the pandemic-induced like the IMF projected deep fall in growth infusion of INR 6,000 crores equity by the compulsions wiped off about one-fourth of Agriculture 3.4% across the world, and indeed, in India too. government in National Infrastructure the GDP, as demand plummeted. While the Investment Fund (NIIF) debt platform slide has been arrested significantly third Source Statista (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107798/india-estimated-economic-impact-of-coronavirus-by-sector/) India’s second quarter GDP growth deserves special mention, as core quarter onwards, damage control persists showed a decline of 23.9% (Q-o-Q). The 2020 infrastructure development is a key focus as 2020 ends. next quarter’s -7.5% meant that India was area. Similarly, the announcement of in recession. It is important to note that INR 18,000 crores as additional outlay for In spite of this adversity, forecasts by the infections peaked in India on Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana - Urban various agencies present hopes of a sharp In a major achievement, India’s GST collections September 17th 2020*. (PMAY – U), is another key feature worth and V-shaped recovery for several economies, including India. IMF’s October recorded a peak of INR 1.15 lakh crores in The four key areas which were deeply noting. This was provided over and above World Economic Outlook estimates India’s Follow through of 2019 dented at the height of COVID were the INR 8,000 crores already given in the December 2020. growth rate in 2021 to be in the range of As 2019 ended, the economic slowdown was being countered consumption, employment, supply chain year. The estimated benefit is launch of 12 10.5%-11.5%, which is among the highest. deftly by a strong set of policy measures by the Indian and government income. The strongest lakh and completion of 18 lakh houses. RBI and most agencies forecast remarkable government. These measures were neatly categorized in nine declines were registered in consumer The Reserve contributed Incidentally, 2019 was considered to have sets, as highlighted in our 2019 Year End Market Watch. The durables, auto sales and exports. (COVID significantly during the crisis by according delivered the best ever 12-months for office economic growth in 2021. initial two months of 2020 did present a glimmer of hope for Impact on sectoral GDP graphic on p.3) high priority to keeping the economy leasing in India for a second successive recovery, though the task appeared uphill. By the end of afloat. From 5.15% benchmark lending rate year. 2020 was expected to create a new Packages & policy support Two key events occurred at the height of March, however, the contours of an unprecedented economic at the beginning of the year, the repo rate record. However, the socio-biological pandemic in July. India’s second REIT got listed, storm, a true black-swan event of global scale, began revealing In a proactive fiscal measure, the Central was brought down to 4% by December. It is catastrophe broke the flow and left an the enormous problem that lay ahead. The COVID-19 Government announced three Atma reported that the transmission to the indelible scar. TIME magazine chose to as Mindspace Business Parks REIT was pandemic, which appeared a distant malaise to most Indians Nirbhar Bharat schemes, between May and consumer also improved during the year as famously cancel 2020 on its iconic cover. It oversubscribed 12.96 times. till a month ago, was already at the doorsteps. November. We had issued the details of compared to earlier times. is from this rubble that 2021 will rise. these from time to time, in our fortnightly Armed with vaccinations developed in In no time thereafter, the follow-through of 2019 became a Savills Round Ups. Together, these record time, the human race gets up again. Around the same time, the government floated closed chapter, as the virus spread swiftly across the country. amounted to a commendable 15% of the Affordable Rental Housing Complexes (ARHC) Almost all businesses, some more than others, slipped into country’s GDP (refer Annexure for specific * https://indianexpress.com/article/ survival and cash preservation mode. Staying afloat became explained/india-coronavirus-numbers- details), though mostly by way of debt and explained-covid-2020-cases-deaths-testing- Operational Guidelines to provide a boost to the theme from then on. loans. recoveries-7128525/ rental housing. savills.in 2 3 Mumbai Market Watch - Office – Year-end 2020 Mumbai Market Watch - Office – Year-end 2020

COMPLETIONS & VACANCY Supply addition: 2020 vs 2019 HIGHLIGHTS 2020 2019 YoY Change 16 10% New completions also declined by 35% YOY to about 30.6 mn sq.ft, with major fall of about 14 0% INDIA 60% YOY noted in cities namely Delhi-NCR, 12 -10% Pune and Mumbai. While Bengaluru and 10 -20% Hyderabad saw relatively lesser YOY decline of . t f .

14% and 21%. Interestingly, Chennai q

s 8 -30% maintained similar levels of new completions at n m OFFICE 6 -40% about 3.6 mn sq.ft. during 2020. Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Delhi-NCR together comprised 4 -50% of 80% of the new completions this year as most supply that had come was committed in 2 -60% previous years. 0 -70% i i e u d a MARKET a r n a C R n u u b l The overall India vacancy levels have n m b a a P e r u g e

marginally increased to 11.7% in 2020 as new n M C h d e y B supply exceeded the pace of leasing activity this Delhi- N H year. Most cities have witnessed rise in vacancy SUMMARY Rental trends levels as the demand remained subdued. The rental value change across micromarkets varied The year 2020 saw a temporary within a city compared to last year, with an average slowdown in office markets with both decline of about 7% YOY noted in a few micromarkets in NCR and Bengaluru, while Chennai and Hyderabad saw leasing activity and new completions Deal size categories New completions in Chennai declining from the previous year, as the a 3% YOY decline. However, Mumbai and Pune markets 50,000-99,999 sq.ft. were at similar levels as 2019 sustained similar rental ranges as last year. pandemic impacted business activities 13% unlike other cities that saw Interestingly, Mumbai sustained rental values similar as across sectors. However, the confidence 2019 despite its low leasing volumes as vacancy levels decline and deferment of is expected to return soon as there are witnessed a marginal declined of 1% in 2020 compared planned supply. to the previous year. announcements of vaccinations to less than 25,000 sq.ft. 25,000- contain infections and return to 49,999 sq.ft. 12% Overall the markets saw stable rents with normalcy. 15% certain pockets dragging overall decline in favor of occupiers.

Vacancy levels ABSORPTION HIGHLIGHTS Absorption: 2020 vs 2019 2020 2019 Fall (2019-2020) 100,000 sq.ft. or more 60% Cities 2019 2020 The office space absorption across India’s six major cities1 18.00 0% % stood at 31.9 mn sq.ft. in 2020, driven by Bengaluru that 16.00 % Bengaluru 7.0% 10.0%

2 -10% 0 9 0 14.00 . continued to lead the pack. While absorption fell by 43% . Demand split by sectors % 6

9 -20% % % Chennai 12.4% 13.0%

12.00 2 2

YOY, it is important to note that the year 2019 saw a record . 2 5 3 e - . t - n f 3 . i . 10.00 -30% l high of leasing in 2019 at about 55.7 mn sq.ft. in the last q c % 4 2 Hyderabad 4.5% 10.8% e s - % 4 6 0 n 8.00 D - decade. -40% 7 1 8 m .

. Engineering &

6.00 o Y IT Mumbai 13.9% 13.4% 0

Y Manufacturing 5 8 -50%

Bengaluru recorded the highest office absorption of 11.4 mn 6 - 4.00 - 48.7% 12.7% sq.ft. in 2020, despite a drop of 27% compared to the NCR 18.0% 21.4% 2.00 -60% previous year. Following Bengaluru closely, Hyderabad 0.00 -70% i i Pune 4.2% 6.5% e u registered leasing of 5.4 mn sq.ft. in 2020. Hyderabad took d a a r n a C R n u u l b over Delhi-NCR while the latter stood at the third place with n m b a P a - N e i r Co Healthcare u g BFSI h e l approximately 4.4 mn sq.ft. absorption in 2020. Like the n working M C h d e e 4.5% Rental range in 2020 y 12.3% B previous year, the top three cities of Bengaluru, Hyderabad D 8.4% H and Delhi-NCR constitute around 66% of the total leasing In INR psf pm Low High Average YOY Change* activity in 2020. Mumbai, India’s financial capital, recorded Markets continue to witness Technology occupiers continue to Bengaluru 40 156 -7% approximately 2.9 mn sq.ft. leasing through 2020, the least large deals drive demand absorption witnessed among the six cities, while Chennai Consumer Goods Transport & Chennai 36 110 -3% As demand continued to be driven by the Banking, Financial Services and Insurance & Services Logistics witnessed an annual decline of about 29%. technology sector constituting 48.7% of (BFSI) occupiers’ share in 2020 increased 2.8% 2.6% Hyderabad 40 90 -3% total leasing in 2020 compared to 46.3% in too and was recorded at 12.3% compared to 2019, there were some large consolidation 10.6% in 2019. Engineering and Mumbai 50 370 0% and expansion deals noted. Of the total manufacturing, as well as transport and The trio – Bengaluru, Delhi-NCR and NCR-Delhi 100 290 -3% office leases in 2020, around 60% logistics, two of India’s growing sectors Consulting Real & Research Estate Others Hyderabad continued to lead the leasing comprised of large deals that were more accounted for 12.7% and 2.6% respectively, NCR-Gurugram -7% 1.8% 0.3% 5.7% 45 145 activity in 2020. than 100,000 sq.ft. each. Bengaluru noted which was more than double of their the highest share of large deals at 67% respective shares in 2019. On the other NCR-Noida 50 93 -8% followed by Hyderabad and Chennai. hand, co-working segment’s share declined Demand from coworking segment Pune 50 107 0% to 8.4% in 2020 from 14% in 2019 as a declined in 2020, while technology 1. Bengaluru, Chennai, Delhi-NCR, Hyderabad, result of occupiers widely adopting work *Averages do not reflect YOY changes within micromarkets or select premium buildings in certain Mumbai and Pune from home policy. occupiers continued to lead. localities savills.in 4 5 Mumbai Market Watch - Office – Year-end 2020 Mumbai Market Watch - Office – Year-end 2020

Office absorption (mn sq.ft.) in Mumbai MUMBAI MARKET OUTLOOK 5.5 DEMAND 2021F Mumbai could possibly to see an increase of about 85-90% in leasing activity in 2021 as recovery is anticipated in latter 2.9 part of 2021. However, a great deal hinges 2020 on the situation in the first quarter. New leasing is likely to continue to be driven by mid-sized transactions of up to 50,000 sq.ft.

MUMBAI SECTORS

BFSI and technology occupiers are highly likely to drive the office demand in 6.9 2021. The city is also well positioned to gain OFFICE 2019 preference from global in-house centers in Source Savills India Research 2021, as quality supply gets completed.

Average rents (INR/sq.ft./month) RENT MARKET 350 Despite additional supply of Grade-A 300 office space, increased demand could result 250 in stabilized vacancy or a marginal decline, 200 by the end of 2021. Nevertheless, we expect rentals to be largely stable across most 150 UPDATE micromarkets, as the city progressively 100 recovers from its current position. 50 0 SUPPLY

The year 2021 is expected to see 5.8 mn sq.ft. of new Grade-A supply in MUMBAI’S KEY Old CBD HIGHLIGHTS micromarkets of Central Mumbai, Navi Navi Mumbai Navi Mumbai, II and Eastern New CBD BKC BKC Periphery

Rank slips in 2020: From being the fourth Central Mumbai Suburbs. The new completions are expected

largest leasing market in 2019, Mumbai Western Suburbs I to be almost thrice the quantum of 2020. Western Suburbs II LEASING AND Vacancy rate slipped to the last place among top six 2018 2019 2020 This is so because significant supply infusion got deferred during the lockdown in 2020. COMPLETIONS Limited new supply during the year led to cities* of India. Mumbai bore the brunt of 2018 2019 2020 rampant infections at the peak of pandemic Source Savills India Research After a notable leasing activity decline in overall city vacancy levels, from Absorption: in India, leading to an adverse impact on of 6.9 mn sq.ft. in 2019, there has been a 59% about 13.9% in 2019 to approximately 13.4% economic activity and business continuity. decline in new space take-up to about 2.9 in 2020. Micromarkets like BKC, Central Vacancy levels declined marginally as new MAJOR TRANSACTIONS IN 2020 mn sq.ft. This comes about as occupiers Mumbai, Thane & Western Suburbs completions remained limited, keeping the delayed decisions owing to the pandemic. witnessed vacancies in the range of 10-13%. However, as of Q4 2020, Navi Mumbai saw rentals stable. Pre-commitments for office Transacted Micromarkets of Eastern Suburbs and Tenant Micromarket Building area Grade – A office stock & vacancy higher vacancy levels of 23%. spaces did not feature during 2020. Thane constituted over 45% of the total (sq.ft.)* leasing activity in the city, compared to 25% Leasing mainly driven by small & Rents Deloitte Shared Services India Thane Lodha i-Think - Tower A 183,322 in 2019, followed by Western Suburbs II and mid-sized deals: Small & mid-sized Limited Liability Partnership 124.1 125.6 Western Suburbs I with 15% and 14% shares In spite of the drop in absorption, overall deals (up to 50,000 sq.ft.) contributed respectively. rental values remained stable in 2020 over about 60% of the total leasing this year. HDFC Bank Limited Western Suburbs I Akruti Business Port 139,194 the previous year. The overall fall in vacancy Larger deals (>100,000 sq.ft.) contributed GPRO Services India Private Sector split: Demand for commercial office Eastern Suburbs Godrej Two 125,703 13.9% 13.4% seems to have delicately balanced the rents. about 28% to the leasing activity, and were Limited space in 2020 was primarily driven by The rental values in Old CBD market, witnessed in micromarkets of Eastern Blackrock Services India Private Nesco IT Park (IT 2019 2020 financial services and technology, along however, declined by 6% YoY. Western Suburbs II 118,204 Suburbs, Thane & Western Suburbs II. Limited Building No.4) with consumer goods & services which Infrastructure development to aid real Schneider Electric India Private L&T Business Park - constituted over 70% of total leasing Eastern Suburbs 112,707 activity. The share of coworking segment estate activity in select corridors: Limited Tower A declined notably from 20% in 2019 to mere Mumbai’s infrastructure upgrade remains 131.4 Stock 2% in 2020. robust, with upcoming trials of metro 2A MUMBAI MICROMARKETS Old CBD - , , Ballard Estate, , Churchgate in mn sq.ft. and 7 lines, development of Navi Mumbai New CBD - BKC - G Block and Other than G Block Supply: The city market saw completions of airport, Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link, the Central Mumbai - Mahalaxmi, Worli, Lower , Prabhadevi, Dadar West, Dadar East and Parel 13.0% about 1.5 mn sq.ft., of which almost 90% was coastal road, Versova- Sea Link, Vacancy in Navi Mumbai and Eastern Suburbs, BKC Periphery – Bandra E, Bandra W, Kalina, Vakola, Khar E, Khar W, , Santacruz E and Santacruz among other developments. These are W Western Suburbs I - E, Vile Parle W, Andheri E, Andheri W, Jogeshwari E Jogeshwari W 2021F compared to 2019 that had new completions expected to have a positive impact on Western Suburbs II - Goregaon E, Goregaon W, Malad E, Malad W, Kandivali E, Kandivali W, Borivali E and in Thane & Western Mumbai II markets leasing and investment activity in Borival W too. However, the CBD markets, both the Source Savills India Research micromarkets of Western Suburbs, BKC, Eastern Suburbs - Sion, Wadala, Chembur, Ghatkopar, Mulund, Kanjurmarg, Powai and Vikhroli, Thane Old CBD and New CBD, witnessed no new * Bengaluru, Chennai, Delhi-NCR, Hyderabad, Navi Mumbai - Airoli, Vashi, CBD Belapur, Mahape and Turbhe Mumbai & Pune BKC Periphery and Navi Mumbai. completions during 2020. *Approximate and indicative areas only savills.in 6 7 Mumbai Market Watch - Office – Year-end 2020 Mumbai Market Watch - Office – Year-end 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic stifled both the demand and supply side of INR 18,000 Cr. additional outlay for PMAY (U) – An various sectors of the economy ANNEXURE additional outlay of INR 18,000 Cr was announced for including real estate for majority of the urban housing scheme in November 2020, to help the first half of 2020. A sudden complete real estate projects that would eventually KEY STIMULUS create jobs and boost the economy. The additional nationwide lockdown brought the outlay was over and above the INR 8,000 Cr spent production machinery to almost a earlier in the year. The allocation was expected to sudden and abrupt standstill. Despite PACKAGES TIMELINE benefit grounding and completion of 12 lakh and 18 the initial bruises to the economy, the lakh houses respectively. government put up a brave fight to Income tax relief measure for developers and home reduce the overall economic fallout of 2020 buyers for houses up to INR 2 Cr. – As part of ANB 3.0 stimulus measures to push economic growth, the pandemic. Various stimulus first-time buyers of houses costing up to INR 2 Cr. packages and reform measures were were entitled to get income tax relief of up to 20% till announced by the government from June 2021. The move was expected to incentivize time to time in 2020. The Reserve people to buy homes and bring down the excess inventory in the residential segment. The maximum Bank also played a significant part, Special Refinancing facilities of INR 50,000 Cr. of NHB, SIDBI & di‹erence allowed between circle rate and agreement orchestrating a downward revision in NABARD - (Including INR 10,000 Cr. to NHB) –In April 2020, the Karnataka’s new industrial policy of INR 5 Lakh Cr. - The value for primary sale of residential units of up to lending rates and injection of liquidity Reserve Bank of India announced a special refinance facility for a new state industrial policy aims to facilitate greater invest- INR 2 crore was increased from 10% to 20% as well. into the system. total amount of INR 50,000 Cr to National Bank for Agriculture and ments in advanced manufacturing, research and develop- INR 6,000 Cr. infusion in the NIIF debt platform – Rural Development (NABARD), Small Industries Development Bank ment (R&D), and innovation. The main objective of the policy The government in November 2020 also approved of India (SIDBI) and National Housing Bank (NHB) to help them is to attract INR 5 lakh Cr. of investment in the state and to equity infusion of INR 6,000 Cr. in a debt platform Pain points meet financing needs of housing finance companies, regional rural create at least 2 million employment opportunities. The new sponsored by National Investment and Infrastructure banks, cooperative banks and microfinance companies, which had industrial policy intends to promote the development of Fund (NIIF). The debt platform was announced as an tier-2 and tier-3 cities in Karnataka, increase merchandise • Decline in consumption been hit hard due to the stringent nationwide lockdown. The overall extension of the ANB 3.0 package and aims at allocation of INR 50,000 Cr. included a special carve out of INR exports in the next five years, and maintain a yearly industrial funding infrastructure projects under the National • Loss of employment 10,000 Cr. for the housing segment. growth rate of 10%. Infrastructure Pipeline of INR 1.10 lakh Cr. • Stress on supply chain Apr 2020 Jul 2020 Nov 2020 • Steep fall in government revenue

Calibrated counter-measures

• Atma Nirbahar Bharat Packages - 15% of overall GDP • Reserve Bank of India- 115 bps rate cuts throughout 2020 with an accommodative stance

February – 2020 May 2020 Aug 2020

INR 13,750 Cr. for Smart City & AMRUT – Smart city INR 3 Lakh Cr. collateral free automatic loans for MSME – The government Aordable Rental Housing Complexes (ARHCs) mission is a mission to develop smart cities across the announced a slew of liquidity measures, which included collateral-free automatic operational guidelines - Taking cognizance of country, making them citizen friendly and sustainable. loan worth INR 3 lakh Cr. The scope of the credit guarantee scheme was also various bottlenecks and realising that the full While 100 cities have been identified in the Smart City widened by doubling the upper ceiling of outstanding loans from INR 25 Cr. to INR potential of rental housing in the country is yet to be programme, the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and 50 Cr. and including certain individual loans given to professionals like doctors, tapped, the government in August 2020 came up Urban Transformation (AMRUT) scheme is targeted at lawyers and chartered accountants for business purposes under its ambit. with specific guidelines under the ARHC scheme. upgrading urban infrastructure across 500 towns and Under the scheme, existing vacant government-fund- INR 45,000 Cr. Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme 2.0 for NBFC – The government cities. The government in its budgetary presentation of ed housing complexes across major cities will be extended the scope of the Partial Credit Guarantee Scheme (PCGS) to provide 2020 had allocated INR 13,750 Cr. for the Smart Cities converted into ARHCs and o‹ered to concessionaires greater flexibility to state-owned banks in purchasing bonds and commercial papers Mission and AMRUT, which was around 40% more than for 25 years to rent out the units to urban poor and of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs). As a part of the Atma Nirbhar Bharat the amount set aside in 2019. The increased allocation migrant workers. The government will incentivise (ANB) initiative, the scheme now covered primary market issuances with lower was in a way a soft signal showcasing the govern- private and public entities to develop such housing credit ratings as well. The centre provided 20% first loss sovereign guarantee to ment’s commitment towards expedition of real estate complexes on their own available vacant land also. public sector banks for purchase of these lower rated instruments, resulting in and infrastructure development in the urban areas of Incentives include viability gap funding, technology liquidity infusion of INR 45,000 Cr. into the system. the country. innovation grant, additional floor space, lending at INR 70,000 Cr. boost to housing sector and middle - income group through concessional rates and tax reliefs. INR 27,000 Cr. for PMAY – The Pradhan Mantri Awas extension of CLSS – For the middle-income class (INR 6 – 18 lakh income per year) a Yojana (PMAY) is a flagship initiative of the Govern- Stamp duty reduction in & Karnataka credit linked subsidy scheme (CLSS) was introduced by the Government of India in ment of India which aims at providing a‹ordable –To revive housing sales and address the demand May 2017. It was subsequently extended up to 31st March 2020. In the second housing to economically challenged sections of the side, various state governments slashed stamp duties tranche of economic package under the ANB programme, the CLSS for a‹ordable society. The programme aims to meet a steep but across housing segments. Maharashtra was one of housing was extended again till March 2021 with a liquidity boost of INR 70,000 Cr. noble target of “Housing for All” by 2022. In 2020, the the first states to do so, reducing stamp duty from Around 2.5 lakh middle income families were expected to benefit from the extension PMAY received grants of INR 27,500 Cr. as against INR 5% to 2% from September- December 2020 and 3% of the scheme. 25,328 Cr. in 2019, an 8.5 % YoY increase. from Jan- March 2021. Later, Karnataka also followed INR 30,000 Cr. liquidity facility for NBFC/HFCs/MFIs – The Union Cabinet in May suit, lowering the rates by 2-3% depending upon the INR 50,040 Cr. for Ministry of Housing & Urban 2020 also gave its nod to launch a special liquidity scheme worth INR 30,000 Cr. for housing segment. Aairs – The ministry was allocated INR 50,040 Cr., a stressed non-banking financial companies and housing finance companies, whose 18.4 % increase from the earlier allocation. financials had deteriorated further due to COVID-19 crisis. savills.in 8 9 Savills Savills India Savills India provides services across office Savills plc is a global real estate services provider Savills India is a group company of Savills leasing, project management, capital markets, listed on the London Stock Exchange. We have an Plc. and is a premier professional international valuations, research, consulting, industrial and international network of more than 600 offices and property consulting firm. With full-service offices logistics, and residential services. Starting in 39,000 associates throughout the Americas, the in Bengaluru, Mumbai, Delhi-NCR, Chennai, India in 2016, the company employs over 350 UK, continental Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and Pune and Hyderabad, the firm serves Occupiers, professionals. the Middle East, offering a broad range of specialist Investors and Developers of Real Estate. advisory, management and transactional services to clients all over the world.

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