To: Interested Parties

From: Stephen Clermont, Change Research

Date: October 3, 2018

RE: Fight Back PAC/California Labor Federation Orange County Swing Congressional District Polling

Recent polling from Change Research, commissioned by Fight Back California SuperPAC and the California Labor Federation, show the level of frustration and anger women share about the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh in the four Republican-held competitive congressional districts in Orange County that could determine control of the United States House of Representatives (#39, #45, #48, and #49). Specifically:

● Republicans candidates for the U.S. House will be in peril with women voters if they come out in favor of the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. ○ 43% in District 39 will be less likely to vote for Young Kim if she comes out in favor of Kavanaugh. Just 25% say they would be more likely to support her. ○ 49% in District 45 will be less likely to vote for Mimi Walters if she comes out in favor of Kavanaugh. Just 25% say they would be more likely to support her. ○ 38% in District 48 will be less likely to vote for if he comes out in favor of Kavanaugh. Just 29% say they would be more likely to support him. ○ 45% in District 39 will be less likely to vote for if she comes out in favor of Kavanaugh. Just 24% say they would be more likely to support her.

● Women will be more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House if Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed to the Supreme Court. ○ 39% in District 39 say they would be more likely to vote for Democrats. Only 29% say they would be more likely to vote for Republicans. ○ 43% in District 45 say they would be more likely to vote for Democrats. Only 23% say they would be more likely to vote for Republicans.. ○ 44% in District 48 say they would be more likely to vote for Democrats. Only 27% say they would be more likely to vote for Republicans.

○ 45% in District 39 say they would be more likely to vote for Democrats. Only 23% say they would be more likely to vote for Republicans.

● Women don’t believe Brett Kavanaugh should be confirmed to the Supreme Court. ○ 35% in District 39 agree with the statement “Judge Kavanaugh should be confirmed ​ to the United States Supreme Court.” 57% disagree. ​ ○ 43% agree with this in District 45. 52% disagree. ○ 41% agree with this in District 48. 57% disagree. ○ 38% agree with this in District 49. 52% disagree.

● Women believe Brett Kavanaugh lied to the Senate Judiciary Committee. ○ 56% in District 39 agree with the statement “Judge Kavanaugh lied to the Senate ​ Judiciary Committee.” 34% disagree. ​ ○ 56% agree with this in District 45. 39% disagree. ○ 53% agree with this in District 48. 39% disagree. ○ 58% agree with this in District 49. 35% disagree.

● Women are angry at the way Dr. Blasey Ford was treated. ○ 61% in District 39 agree with the statement “I am angry at the disrespectful way ​ Christine Blasey Ford has been treated in this process.” 36% disagree. ​ ○ 56% agree with this in District 45. 39% disagree. ○ 57% agree with this in District 48. 42% disagree. ○ 58% agree with this in District 49. 39% disagree.

● Women don’t believe Brett Kavanaugh is qualified to be on the Supreme Court. ○ 39% in District 39 agree with the statement “Judge Kavanaugh is qualified to be on ​ the United States Supreme Court.” 49% disagree. ​ ○ 44% agree with this in District 45. 55% disagree. ○ 41% agree with this in District 48. 48% disagree. ○ 42% agree with this in District 49. 49% disagree.

● Women largely believe Dr. Blasey Ford was assaulted in high school by Brett Kavanaugh. ○ 46% in District 39 believe her account. Only 33% believe alternative theories. ○ 55% in District 45 believe her account. Only 36% believe alternative theories. ○ 46% in District 48 believe her account. Only 35% believe alternative theories. ○ 58% in District 49 believe her account. Only 28% believe alternative theories.

● Women overwhelmingly support the Democratic candidates for U.S. House ○ In district 39, Gil Cisneros leads Young Kim 58% to 39%. ○ In district 45, leads Mimi Walters 53% to 42%. ○ In district 48, Harley Rouda leads Dana Rohrabacher 56% to 43%. ○ In district 49, Mike Levin leads Diane Harkey 59% to 36%.

Polling was conducted online from October 2nd through 3rd, 2018. Using its Bias Correct Engine to attain a sample reflective of the electorate in each district, Change Research polled 337 likely voters

in District #39, 324 likely voters in District #45, 312 voters in District #48, and 292 likely voters in District #49. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, and 2016 Presidential vote.