8 / 0 / 83 EuroChem FY 2017 23 / 55 / 94 IFRS Results Conference Call 8 February 2018 34/21/124
Start time: 10:00 NY / 15:00 London / 16:00 Zug / 18:00 Moscow 96 / 74 / 123 Dial-in details https://cossprereg.btci.com/prereg/key.process?key=P9DF3TP9P
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235 / 241 / 222 This presentation has been prepared by EuroChem Group AG (“EuroChem” or the “Company”) for informational purposes, and may include forward-looking statements or projections, These forward-looking statements or projections include matters that are not historical facts or statements and reflect the Company’s intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, the Company’s results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, performance, prospects, growth, strategies, and 23 / 55 / 94 the industry in which the Company operates, By their nature, forward-looking statements and projections involve risks and uncertainties as they relate and depend on events and circumstances that may or may not occur in the future, The Company therefore cautions you that forward-looking statements and projections are not guarantees of future performance and that the actual results of operations, financial condition and liquidity of the Company and the development of the industry in which 0 / 176 / 240 the Company operates may differ materially from those made in or suggested by the forward-looking statements or projections contained in this presentation, Factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements or projections in this presentation may include, among other things, 198 / 217 / 241 general economic conditions in the markets in which the Company operates, the competitive environment in, and risks associated with operating in, such markets, market change in the fertilizer and related industries, as well as many other risks affecting the Company and its operations, In addition, even if the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and liquidity and the development of the industry in which the Company operates are consistent with the forward-looking statements or projections 127 / 127 / 127 contained in this presentation, those results or developments may not be indicative of results or developments in future periods, The Company does not undertake any obligation to review or confirm expectations or estimates or to update any forward-looking statements or projections to reflect events that occur or circumstances that 242 / 242 / 242 arise after the date of this presentation,
96 / 74 / 123 This document does not constitute or form part of any advertisement of securities, any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of the Company in any jurisdiction, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation, communication or distribution form the basis of, 230 / 224 / 236 or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision, No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on assumptions made as to its completeness, No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by the Company, its subsidiaries or any of their respective advisers, officers, employees or agents, as to the accuracy of the information or opinions or for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of 255 / 192 / 0 this presentation or its contents,
Due to rounding, some totals may not correspond with the sum of the separate figures
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2 EuroChem Group Overview Vertically integrated global business supporting regional market commitment
Own raw materials, production facilities, and logistics assets create unique global offering. . 2017 total fertilizer production up 2% y-o-y of 10.6 MMT (2016: 10.4 MMT) Raw material mining Fertilizer production
Sales to more than 100 countries supported by EuroChem sales . Vertical integration: own raw materials, port terminals, rail stock, 2 Kovdorskiy GOK 6 Antwerpen 10 Novomoskovskiy Azot platform construction/repair works, Europe/CIS/Americas distribution capacity 3 VolgaKaliy (UC) 7 Lifosa 11 BMU
Access to international customers through EuroChem Agro and trade 4 Usolskiy (UC) 8 Phosphorit 12 Nevinnomysskiy Azot companies o 3 Nitrogen plants (2 in Russia, 1 in Belgium) – nutrient capacity of 5 EuroChem Fertilizers 9 Northwest (UC) 13 EuroChem-Migao 2.6 MMT of N, increasing to 3.4 in 2018 with launch of new NH3
plant. 16 Growing global distribution platform with series of acquisitions over 2 14 15 4 9 34 o 3 Phosphate plants (2 in Russia and 1 in Lithuania) – nutrient 7 8 10 the last 24 months: 31 6 24 32 30 11 3 capacity of 1.27 MMT of P O (phosphoric acid) 23 25 2 5 1 29 5 • Bentrei (US) 26 27 17 12 22 (1) 28 33 o Apatite (Russia) - P2O5-rich (37%-38%) and low-MER content 36 • Tocantins (Brazil) 19 (0.057) apatite ore (2.8 MMT per year) covers c.75% of own 13 18 • Agricola (Bulgaria) production needs for all phosphate plants and Antwerp, additional
• volumes from Kazakhstan: 600 KMT phosphate flour Hispalense de Liquidos (Spain) 35 • Emerger Fertilizantes (Argentina) o Iron ore as a co-product of apatite mining: up to 5.8 MMT of iron ore (Fe content 63.5%) • New offices/centres in Hungary, Moldova, Russia 20 o Logistics assets include transshipment capacity of c.10.2 MMT, of
which c.3.5 MMT in the EU, ~ 6,400 own rail stock/depot
Months away from start of commissioning operations of 2 potash 21 o Sales : global platform anchored on EuroChem Agro and CIS position Sales projects in Russia (8.3 MMT of KCl per year) with expanding footprint across the Americas 18 Mexico 25 Switzerland 31 Belarus
. Projects Logistics 19 US 26 Italy 32 Ukraine
o Potash (K) : 2 greenfield projects in Russia with targeted capacity of 20 Brazil 27 Hungary 33 Turkey 14 Sillamae over 8.3 MMT of KCl per year (5 MMT K2O). First product Q1 2018 21 Argentina 28 Greece 34 Russia 15 Ust-Luga (UC) Increasing product offering with innovative solutions o Ammonia – 1 MMT facility in close proximity to Phosphorit 22 Spain 29 Bulgaria 35 Singapore 16 Murmansk (Russia/Baltic Sea), startup 2018 23 France 30 Moldova 36 China 17 Tuapse 24 Germany • Total employees: >25,000 Expected 1H 18
1 Global headquarters (Zug) Romania Serbia
UC = under construction (1) Minor element ratio 3 EuroChem Group Overview Key strategy pillars
Cost leadership through Vertically integrated business model Growth through potash vertical integration Target raw material self- Nitrogen Phosphate Potash Build leading low-cost potash sufficiency (ammonia, phosphate production rock, potash) Natural gas Potash ore reserves (access to several Phosphate rock & resources in excess Enhance cash cost position and deposits in proximity (1) to Group assets) of 10 BMT reduce risk/volatility of earnings Maximize internal processing of Iron ore potash for NPK, NK, SOP production 1mmt pa Ammonia Phosphoric project (NH3) acid
3 Nitrogen 3 Phosphates 2 potash projects fertilizer fertilizer plants plants underway in Russia with a combined c.12.9MMT of c.4.0 MMT of Proximity to Customers nitrogen phosphates targeted capacity Value-added product range capacity(3)(4) capacity(2)(4) of over 8MMT MOP The proximity to customers in Maximize specialty products and key home markets provided via distribution allows the Group to emphasize the de- sell at a premium and exploit commoditization of the Group’s Maritime transhipment facilities in Russia, Estonia, seasonality patterns Ust-Luga fertilizer product portfolio Belgium and c.6k rail cars and 43 locomotives
Obtain valuable market Expand industrial portfolio knowledge from direct end-user Sales to more than 100 countries supported by own distribution contact with regards to product quality, R&D, and services Ongoing and potential investment projects By-products Premium product R&D
Source: Company data; (1) MI&I resources in accordance with Russian classification system; (2) Phosphate and complex mineral fertilizers; (3) Nitrogen mineral fertilizers and organic synthesis products; (4) The capacity data represents theoretical capacity as certain production units can produce several types of products, for example, certain production units can be configured to produce either DAP or MAP – but not both at the same time. Final production volumes ultimately depend on how the production units are configured 4 Fertilizer Sector Market backdrop
2017 Backdrop Nitrogen (US$/tonne)
• More supportive fertilizer pricing backdrop following launch of new $ 500
capacity $ 400 Key themes: • Chinese costs / $ 300 • Chinese fertilizer production rates decline on rising input costs and exports / capacity rationalization $ 200 stricter environmental controls – exports significantly lower • New capacity $ 100 year-on-year. • Indian subsidies • Acreage plans $ 0 o Urea exports down 47% y-o-y to 4.7 MMT, (2015: 13.7 MMT)
o DAP exports 6% lower y-o-y to 6.4 MMT , (2015: 8 MMT) Prilled urea (FOB Yuzhniy) Ammonia (FOB Yuzhniy) o Structural changes in Chinese cash costs (higher domestic AN (FOB Black Sea) UAN (FOB Black Sea) Phosphates (US$/tonne) tariffs/prices for electricity, rail/truck transportation, coal) $ 500 • Global nutrient demand $ 450 $ 400 • N: slight increase to 106.5 MMT of N Key themes: • India / Brazil subsidy $ 350 • P: stable at 48.2 MMT P2O5 and currency $ 300 • MEA capacity • K: up 2% to 35.4 MMT K2O • Producer discipline $ 250
$ 200
Average market prices for key products (US$/tonne) MAP (FOB Baltic) DAP (FOB Baltic) NPK 16:16:16 (FOB Baltic) Iron ore (US$/tonne) Y-o-Y, Y-o-Y, Q4-17 Q4-16 2017 2016 chng % chng % $ 120 Ammonia $283 $190 +49% $265 $236 +12% (FOB Yuzhny) Key themes: Prilled urea $246 $206 +19% $220 $198 +11% • China steel demand $ 80 (FOB Yuzhny) • Global supply AN $216 $179 +21% $191 $165 +15% dynamics (FOB Black Sea) • $ 40 MAP CNY movements $360 $320 +13% $348 $338 +3% (FOB Baltic) MOP $235 $221 +7% $228 $235 -3% (FOB Baltic, spot) $ 0 Iron ore $67 $72 -7% $73 $60 +22% (63.5% Fe, CFR China) Iron ore (CFR China)
Averages are derived from weekly prices 5 EuroChem Group Overview Selected key events
Brazil Distribution Acquisition of Fertilizantes Tocantins with
2016 blending facilities and established network Strategically located in Brazil’s emerging fertile farming regions in the North, of 2,000 customers in the North, Northeast Northeast and Mid-West. Blending facilities, market expertise and established and Mid-West of Brazil. network of 2,000 customers. Double digit sales growth for 7 consecutive years.
Distribution Centre in Hungary New center to mainly distribute EuroChem products and specialty fertilizers from Fertilia Ltd., a leading Hungarian producer and distributor. Acquisition of a minority interest (50%-1 share) in Hispalense de Liquidos, a family-owned producer of liquid NPK blends located in the Completed tender on 2017 LPNs ($426m) south of Spain. The deal gives EuroChem access to additional and placed $500m Eurobonds issue production capability and technical know-how, enabling the Group to expand the scope of its premium product offering. First Ural-20 mining machine starts at Usolskiy
Acquisition of a minority interest (50%-1 2017 share) in Hispalense de Liquidos The acquisition of the privately-owned distributor of premium and standard fertilizers in Argentina will further strengthen EuroChem’s footprint in Latin America which is an important region currently accounting for 11% of the EuroChem acquires Argentinian Fertilizer Group’s fertilizer sales. The market for fertilizers in Argentina is expected to
Distributor Emerger Fertilizantes increase by 40% to 5.5 MMT in 2020.
EuroChem Places US$ 500m Eurobond
EuroChem Group AG obtains Unsecured In November 2017 the Group divested its Severneft-Urengoy gas operator – future oil & gas focus to center on the $750 Million Facility exploration and development of gas condensate fields in the Astrakhan and Saratov regions in Russia, and the Kamenkovsky gas field in Kazakhstan.
EuroChem launches new subsidiary in Bulgaria
EuroChem sells Severneft-Urengoy
2018 Usolskiy beneficiation system filled with ore and brine as of early EuroChem Usolskiy Potash readies for February. Initial production to begin in the second half of commissioning of MOP production mill February/early March, with regular production and sustained
ramping-up of operations to follow from early May.
6 EuroChem Group Overview Global market presence
Group sales geography (2017) Group sales volumes (KMT)
32% Group Europe Russia 5638 5460 +2% 20,909 5 516 -3% 20% 20,534 -6% 5 181 17% 12% 10% 7% 2%
2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017
• Top 2 in Russia/CIS with more than 55% North America CIS 1389 2 396 -6% 1300 of Russian domestic sales directly to -11% 2 125 farmers • Top 2 in Europe, anchored by Europe EuroChem Antwerpen / Agro
• Entering transformational 2016 2017 2016 2017 stage with potash
Latin America Africa Asia • Growing presence in the Americas and +56% 498 2602 +56% 3872 -6% 3659 319 Europe supported by several 1 663 acquisitions
• Diversified presence in non-domestic From 2018, added focus on Brazilian market with markets 2016 2017 world’s2016 lowest cost2017 potash 2016 2017
• Mining products split between Russia and Asia
• Growing industrial product offering
7 EuroChem Group Overview Key 2017 figures
Revenues (US$bn), Gross margin (%) EBITDA (US$m), EBITDA margin (%)
41% 32% 40% 36% 37% 37% 37% 35% 35% 35% 27% 34% 26% 26% $4,866 23% 23% 22% 22% 22% $4,375 21%
$1,133 $1,130
$1,336 $1,255 $1,172 $1,296 $1,013 $1,054 $1,053 $1,061 $402 $286 $349 $286 $210 $234 $241 $254
Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 2016 2017
Revenues ($m) Gross margin (%) EBITDA ($m) EBITDA margin (%)
Key ratios (LTM) Geography of sales (% of total)
1% 1% 2% 5% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 2% 12M-16 3M-17 6M-17 9M-17 12M-17 7% 10% 10% 6% 8% 8% 7% 8% 7% 4% 11% 12% 11% 13% 15% 15% 16% 22% 17% 20% 1 18% 11% 14% 15% Net debt / EBITDA 2.85x 2.82x 2.87x 2.90x 2.88x 10% 8% 12% 6% 15% 11% 10% 10% 15% 12% 8% 12% 10% 16% 9% 9% 1 Funds from operations / Gross debt 20% 18% 18% 17% 18% 20% 21% 19% 18% 18% 19% 17% 20% 24%
EBITDA / interest coverage 5.36x 5.00x 4.80x 4.46x 4.43x 44% 31% 34% 35% 35% 33% 32% 36% 32% 25%
Return on capital employed 17% 16% 16% 16% 17%
Europe Russia Asia Pacific North America Latin America CIS Africa
(1) Defined as per bank covenants. 8 EuroChem Group Overview EBITDA development
RUB/USD Exchange rate • EBITDA remained in line y-o-y at $1,130m 90 85 • Despite higher prices, profitability adversely affected by impact of rouble 80 appreciation and one off items. 75 70 EBITDA, $m 65 60 55 50 45 40 +34 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 +170
-21 Rouble appreciation overshadowing stronger product -30 pricing environment
Y-o-Y, Product 2017 2016 -66 -5 chng % Ammonia $265 $236 +12% (FOB Yuzhny) Prilled urea -67 $220 $198 +11% -18 (FOB Yuzhny) AN $191 $165 +15% (FOB Black Sea) MAP $348 $338 +3% (FOB Baltic) Iron ore $73 $60 +22% (CFR China) $1,133 $1,130 EuroChem products only
Selected sales Y-o-Y, Y-o-Y, 2017 2016 2017 2016 volumes (KMT) chng % chng %
Fertilizer products 13,470 13,415 +0% 9,678 10,022 -3%
Feed phosphates 348 300 +16% 336 289 +16% EBITDA Sales Prices (incl. Other sales Variable Fixed costs Effects of FX FX gain/loss Other EBITDA 12M-16 volumes and FX) (incl. 3rd production (excl. effects rates on from items 12M-17 Mining products 5,927 6,029 -2% 5,916 6,022 -2% mix party costs of FX rates) fixed costs operations net* (EuroChem) products) Industrial products 1,512 1,494 +1% 1,512 1,494 +1%
* Other items (net) mainly comprised of bad debt provisions of $14.3m, VolgaKaliy write-off of $5.7m, iron ore swap losses of $3.9m, and Murmansk Port disposal effect of $23m. 9 EuroChem Group Overview History of prudent financial policy backed by shareholder commitment
Highlights / recent developments Debt(1) mix as of 31 December 2017 • Commitment to conservative financial policy:
• To keep Net debt/LTM EBITDA within a conservative range throughout the Bond/bilateral loans/syndicated 46.0% 33% 21% various stages in the fertilizer cycle facility • Ample liquidity proportionate to short-term debt • Debt structure with a balanced maturity and interest rate profile Long-term/short-term 75% 25% • EuroChem’s LT ratings (Fitch/S&P): «BB» (negative) / «BB-» (stable) recently affirmed Unsecured/secured 99% 1% • Very modest refinancing needs in 2018-2019; in 2020 new EBITDA from new projects should exceed $300m $/RUB/BRL 64% 36% 1% • Sizeable and committed shareholder support:
• Agreement with AIM Capital SE for perpetual debt financing with a limit of up Float/Fixed 34% 66% to $1.5bn ($250mm drawn as of now) • 2 significant investment projects financed through non-recourse project financing facilities (Northwest and Usolskiy) Covenant/Off-covenant 78% 22% 2022 and Project finance repayment ($m) 2019 2020 2021 Total Covenant debt: $3.48n beyond Usolskiy Project Finance 150 200 200 200 750 Northwest (Baltic ammonia) 40 71 73 483 666 Net covenant debt(1)/ EBITDA dynamics (x) Covenant debt(1) maturity profile as of 31 December 2017, $m
Bank debt covenant level As of 31 Jan-2017: 3.5x • c.$203m undrawn committed lines • c.$356m cash 1 136
2.85x 2.87x 2.90x 2.88x 2.75x 2.82x 858 2.34x 745 Undrawn committed lines
410 +$296m 344
249
Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Cash and equiv. 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 $100m
(1)Defined as per bank covenants (does not include project finance facilities) Unsecured syndicated facility Eurobonds Rouble bonds Bilateral loans 10 EuroChem Group Overview Strategic projects largely funded
Group CAPEX (US$m) Project Finance (US$m)
Usolskiy potash project
• Despite large-scale projects the Group maintains the flexible Amount of total investment funded to date: c. 60% CAPEX outlay c. $1,191m c. $3,000m • 29% of 2017 CAPEX from non-recourse project financing $1,809m • $160m: EuroChem Usolskiy (potash) 1,496 • €221m : EuroChem Northwest (ammonia) 1,323 $750m • Annual Group sustaining CAPEX requirements: c.$150m CAPEX spent to date CAPEX outstanding Total 378 2018 - 2026 estimated CAPEX²
PF Usolskiy
519
257 EuroChem-Northwest ammonia project
$417m Amount of total investment funded to date c. 68%
74 160 Projectfinance c.$297m c.$977m 443 458 312 395 $680m $270m 380 341 274 326 610 224 185 140 211 221 177 102 100 91 355 $286m 216 211 156 186 208 194 182 110 CAPEX spent to Remaining CAPEX Total estimated date CAPEX Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 2016 2017
PF Northwest Mining PF Usolskiy PF Northwest Fertilisers Oil&Gas Logistics Sales Other
Excluding temporarily unallocated CAPEX 2- including all development phases and all social infrastructure 11 EuroChem Group Overview Competitive advantages rooted in low-cost raw materials
Assets benefiting from advantageous location and upstream integration Nevinnomysskiy urea cost (FOB Black Sea), US$/tonne • From Q3-18, self sufficiency in ammonia following launch of Northwest project $300 • Internal phosphate rock production covers c.75% of annual consumption $250 • By-products (iron ore, baddeleyite ) further improve cost competitiveness of the business $200 $217
Additional cost efficiency through vertical integration in logistics and $150 distribution • Own port facilities with annual capacity of 8.8MMT (Russia) and 3.5MMT $100 (EU) $50 • Fleet of 6,400 railcars and 43 locomotives
• Distribution network covering CIS, US, Latin America, Europe and Asia $0
Jul-16 Jul-17
Jan-16 Jan-17
Jun-16 Jun-17
Oct-16 Oct-17
Apr-16 Apr-17
Feb-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Sep-17
Dec-16 Dec-17
Aug-16 Aug-17
Nov-16 Nov-17
Mar-16 Mar-17
May-16 May-17
Gas price Conversion cost Transportation FCA-FOB FOB Price BS
Low-cost nitrogen and phosphate operations on DDP basis Lifosa DAP costs (FOB Baltic), US$/tonne, with iron ore credit UreaUrea global global cost cost curve curve in 2016 in 2017 DAP global cost curve in 2017 $500 350 600
300 $400 $378 500 250 NAK NEV 400 $300 200 Azot Azot Lifosa 300 $200
150 Fe 200 100 $100
50 100 Urea Urea cost on DDPbasis, $/t
DAPcost on DDP/FCA basis, $/tonne $0
0 0
4 8
2 3 5 6 8 9
13 17 21 26 30 34 38 43 47
12 14 15
MMT 11 Jul-17
MMT Jul-16
Jan-16 Jan-17
Jun-16 Jun-17
Oct-16 Oct-17
Apr-16 Apr-17
Feb-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Sep-17
Dec-16 Dec-17
Aug-16 Aug-17
Nov-16 Nov-17
Mar-16 Mar-17 May-17 Phosphate rock Ammonia Sulphur Conversion May-16 Gas/Coal Conversion cost Transportation FCA-FOB Freight Transport to port Freight Import duties PhosRock Apatite Ammonia Sulphur Sulphuric acid Conversion cost Import duty 100Rmb export duty DAP cost based on mix phosrock price
12 Potash projects Potash Gradual introduction of potash
Key considerations Potash sourcing, 2017 (KMT)
c.440 • Usolskiy initial start-up sequence delayed to mid-Q1 2018, VolgaKaliy online MOP SOP from summer 2018. Production to initially phase out 310 rd • Base case ramp-up assumes 3 years for each development phase to reach full current 3 party purchases for processing capacity 184
• Long-term target to channel over 1 million tonnes of potash for downstream complex fertilizer production 145 126
• Balanced approach - the Group will seek to maximize shareholder returns, Nevinnomysskiy EuroChem Trading of while remaining mindful of market dynamics as capacity is commissioned and Azot Antwerpen 3rd-party product operationally tested
Potential for higher internal consumption from complex fertilizer production in Kazakhstan and China Expected capacity ramp-up (KMT)
2017/18 capacity and production estimates impacted 8,300 by delayed start at Usolskiy. 7,100 Limited revision to ramp-up plan beyond that. 6,000 4,600 3,500 2,100
580 -
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024/25 Usolskiy VolgaKaliy
14 Potash Favorable positioning
Potash assets conveniently located for intragroup logistics… …and beyond within global EuroChem sales network…
Global HQs CIS HQs Oil and gas Mining Logistics …supporting expected global cost leadership position Fertilizers Distribution Sales market in 2017
Potash global cost curve (delivered to market, 2022) 64 MMT 350 estimated 2017 KCl demand* 69 MMT :
300 estimated 2022 KCl
demand
250 ICL (EU)
Intrepid
(DSW)
Expected average price range 2018-2022 K+S
200 ICL
Others
K+S Legacy
APC
Agrium Agrium
Mosaic
PotashCorp PotashCorp
PotashCorp PotashCorp
150 SQM
China
Uralkali
Usolskiy
Uralkali Uralkali
Belaruskali
Belaruskali VolgaKaliy 100
50
0
Potash Potash cost on DDPbasis, $/t
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Global potash capacity, MMT
Site Cost Delivery to port Freight Capacity additions *Interger: 62.4 MMT, IFA: 66.5 MMT
15 VolgaKaliy Update
Capacity (KCL, MMT)
4.6
2.3 2.3
2.3 2.3
Phase 1 Phase 2
• Average KCl content of 39.5% and modern mining operations • Approximately 500km to EuroChem’s Tuapse port facilities
16 Usolskiy Update
Capacity (KCL, MMT)
3.7
2.3 1.4
2.3 2.3
Phase 1 Phase 2
Eight continuous mining machines operating underground
17 Usolskiy Update
Ore in storage prior to beneficiation
18 Thank you – and now time for our Q&A session….
Please visit www.eurochemgroup.com for further details or contact our Investor Relations. [email protected]