City of Valdez, Alaska
Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan Update
May 30, 2018
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TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Maps ...... 5 1.0 Introduction ...... 8 1.1 Goals ...... 9 1.2 Plan Area ...... 10 1.3 Plan Organization ...... 11 2.0 Planning Process ...... 13 2.1 Plan Research ...... 14 2.2 Public Involvement ...... 18 2.3 Community Resources ...... 19 2.4 State Resources ...... 21 2.5 Other Funding Sources and Resources ...... 22 2.6 Local Resources ...... 22 3.0 Risk Assessment ...... 26 3.1 Avalanche Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska ...... 59 3.1.1 Hazard Profile ...... 59 3.2 Dam Failure Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska ...... 68 3.2.1 Hazard Profile ...... 68 3.3 Earthquakes Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska ...... 72 3.3.1 Hazard Profile ...... 72 3.4 Floods Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska ...... 86 3.4.1 Hazard Profile ...... 86 3.5 Landslide Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska ...... 95 3.5.1 Hazard Profile ...... 95 3.6 Severe Weather Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska ...... 97 3.6.1 Hazard Profile ...... 97 3.7 Tsunami/Seiche Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska ...... 115 3.7.1 Hazard Profile ...... 115 2
3.8 Volcano Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska ...... 124 3.8.1 Hazard Profile ...... 124 3.9 Wildfire Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska ...... 128 3.9.1 Hazard Profile ...... 128 4.0 Mitigation Strategy ...... 133 4.1 Mitigation Strategy Approach ...... 133 4.2 FEMA Requirements Addressed in this Section ...... 133 4.3 Developing Goals and Objectives ...... 134 4.4 Identification and Analysis of Mitigation Actions ...... 136 5.0 Plan Maintenance ...... 152 5.1 Introduction ...... 152 6.0 Formal Adoption ...... 159 7.0 Bibliography ...... 163
TABLE OF TABLES Table 1—Hazard Mitigation Planning Team ...... 13 Table 2— Legal and Technical Capability ...... 22 Table 3—Personnel Capability ...... 23 Table 4—Administrative and Technical Capability ...... 24 Table 5—City of Valdez In Town Subdivisions ...... 29 Table 6—City of Valdez Out of Town Subdivisions ...... 32 Table 7—Vulnerability Overview for the City of Valdez ...... 34 Table 8—City of Valdez 2017 Certified Real Property Tax Rolls ...... 35 Table 9—Identified Critical Facilities ...... 35 Table 10—Hazard Vulnerability Summary ...... 43 Table 11—Hazard Risk Assessment Summary ...... 44 Table 12—City of Valdez Summer Trails ...... 50 Table 13—Extent of Hazard Ranking ...... 54 Table 14—Probability Criteria Table ...... 55 Table 15—Hazard Matrix ...... 56 Table 16—Previous Occurrences of Hazards from 1978 to Present ...... 57 Table 17—Hazards Identification and Decision to Profile ...... 57 Table 18—NOAA Avalanche Data ...... 60 Table 19—Avalanche Damage Summary ...... 61 Table 20—Largest Recorded Earthquakes ...... 72 Table 21—Magnitude and Intensity Comparison ...... 73 Table 22—MMI Scale Rating ...... 73 Table 23—Major Active Fault Systems ...... 81 Table 24— All 6.0 Magnitude Earthquakes within 100 Miles of Valdez since 1957 ...... 82 3
Table 25—FIRM Zones ...... 87 Table 26—Land Use Types Located in the High Velocity Flood Zones ...... 89 Table 27—NFIP Statistics ...... 90 Table 28—NOAA Recorded Events ...... 91 Table 29—Valdez Temperature Data from 1964 to 2012 ...... 98 Table 30—Valdez Precipitation Data from 1964 to 2012 ...... 99 Table 31—NOAA Severe Weather Data ...... 99 Table 32—Sieberg‐Ambraseys Tsunami Intensity Scale ...... 118 Table 33—Twelve Point Tsunami Intensity Scale ...... 119 Table 34—History of Fire Events from 1939 to 2017 in Valdez ...... 129 Table 35—2008 Hazard Mitigation Plan Goals ...... 134 Table 36—Hazard Mitigation Goals and Objectives ...... 135 Table 37—2008 Avalanche Mitigation Actions ...... 139 Table 38—2018 Dam Failure Mitigation Actions ...... 139 Table 39—2008 Earthquake Mitigation Actions ...... 141 Table 40—2008 Flood/Erosion Mitigation Actions ...... 141 Table 41—2008 Landslide Mitigation Actions ...... 145 Table 42—2008 Severe Weather Mitigation Actions ...... 145 Table 43—2008 Tsunami/Seiche Mitigation Actions...... 147 Table 44—2018 Volcano Mitigation Actions ...... 149 Table 45—2008 Wildland Fire Mitigation Actions ...... 149
TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1—Limits of Planning Area ...... 10 Figure 2—Locations of the In‐Town Subdivision ...... 30 Figure 3—Locations of the In‐Town Subdivision ...... 31 Figure 4—Subdivisions Outside of the Central Business District ...... 33 Figure 5—Valdez Town Center Critical Infrastructure ...... 39 Figure 6—Valdez Outside of the Town Center Critical Infrastructure ...... 40 Figure 7—Airport and Float Plane Base ...... 46 Figure 8—City of Valdez Police and Fire Stations ...... 47 Figure 9—Providence Health & Services Alaska ...... 48 Figure 10—Educational Facilities within the City of Valdez ...... 49 Figure 11—Copper Valley Electric Association Facilities ...... 52 Figure 12—City of Valdez Avalanche Areas ...... 64 Figure 13—City of Valdez Avalanche Areas ...... 65 Figure 14—Thompson Pass Avalanche FAA Control Zones ...... 66 Figure 15—Location of the Solomon Gulch Reservoir and Dam ...... 69 Figure 16—Epicenters of Historic Earthquakes in Alaska with Magnitudes of 6.0 or Higher ...... 80 Figure 17—Valdez Earthquake Probability (USGS 2017) ...... 84 Figure 18—Areas Affected by Ash Fals ...... 125 Figure 19—Alaska Interagency Fire Management Plan ‐ Fire Risk Map ...... 128 Figure 20—Valdez Wildland Fire Locations ...... 130
4 Figure 21—Hazard Mitigation Planning Cycle ...... 152
APPENDICES A. Acronym List B. Glossary C. Public Involvement Documentation D. FEMA Review Tool E. Benefit‐Cost Analysis F. Plan Maintenance
List of Maps
Map 1. Location Map Map 2. Ownership Map Map 3. FEMA Flood Zones Map 4. Coastal Habitats Map 5. Mineral Creek Flats and Canyon Map 6. Old Town Area Map 7. Lowe River Map 8. Valdez Glacier Lake and Stream Map 9. Avalanche Zones
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6 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION I INTRODUCTION
7 1.0 Introduction The City of Valdez is a small city within South Central Alaska, located in the Northeast corner of Prince William Sound and is situated alongside a deep‐water port which makes it susceptible to tsunami and seiche wave events. It is a fjord; the steep mountain sides extend directly down into the ocean in many instances. The small areas of flatland that have been developed are generally on gravel alluvial fans formed from three large glacier rivers that drain into the port. This makes the developed areas susceptible to flooding, erosion, liquefaction during earthquakes and landslides and avalanches from the adjacent mountain slopes. Valdez is in an active earthquake zone; there are multiple volcanoes nearby that are capable of affecting the city, and, although rare, Valdez can suffer from wildfires in hot, dry weather. In cold, wet weather Valdez can accumulate more than 500 inches of snow. To compound these risk factors, there is only one road that leads in and out of Valdez, and it is 120 miles away from the next sizeable city. Valdez can easily become isolated from immediate help. It is therefore essential for the community to recognize natural hazard risks with the potential to affect Valdez and plan to be resilient to them.
For this reason, the City of Valdez Community Development Department and the Planning & Zoning Commission led the development of this 2018 City of Valdez Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan Update (HMP). The State of Alaska Department of Military & Veterans Affairs, Division of Homeland Security & Emergency Management (DHS&EM) obtained a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) grant and contracted with LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. This 2018 HMP assesses the natural hazard risks and vulnerabilities within the Valdez community, identifies opportunities to mitigate those hazards, and identify funding options to move forward with the possible mitigation projects. This plan synthesized input from a myriad of local community organizations, groups, and individual citizens and was truly a public, cooperative effort. Additionally, this plan meets all requirements for HMPs under the Stafford Act. It is a living document and will be refined and updated every five years.
WHAT IS NATURAL HAZARD MITIGATION?
Natural disasters often trigger a cycle of human responses that include four phases of emergency management: Response, Recovery, Mitigation, and Preparedness. Emergency Response plans often carry checklists of responsibility and outline the internal structure for setting up Emergency Operation Centers. Recovery often involves State and Federal funding to rebuild communities to a higher standard of resiliency. Mitigation, the prevention‐related concept of natural disaster, is often overlooked in Emergency planning, but it is absolutely critical to protecting communities and saving lives and money before a natural disaster by mitigating potential damage. Preparedness is often focused on educating individuals and families on hazards and advocates keeping emergency kits, knowing the location of shelters, and recognizing what to do under different risk circumstances. 8 Natural Hazard Mitigation is any action that reduces the effects of future disasters. It has been demonstrated over time that hazard mitigation is most effective when based on an inclusive, comprehensive, long‐term plan that is developed before a disaster actually occurs. It is impossible to predict exactly when and where disasters will occur, or the extent to which they will impact Valdez. However, with careful planning and collaboration among community agencies, stakeholders, citizens, and the City of Valdez, it is possible to minimize losses that can occur from disasters.
WHY IS A HMP IMPORTANT?
A FEMA‐approved HMP is required before communities can receive hazard mitigation funds from the Federal government. These Federal funds are often crucial to successfully implementing pre‐ and post‐ disaster projects. The Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA 2000) amended the Stafford Act to reinforce the importance of mitigation planning and emphasize planning for disasters before they occur. States and communities must have an approved HMP to be eligible to apply for and receive hazard mitigation funds. Approved HMPs must demonstrate the proposed mitigation actions are based on a sound planning process, account for all risks, and take into account the individual capabilities of the community.
To facilitate HMP development, FEMA issued guidelines for plan requirements under DMA 2000 regulations. As the State representative for the HMP, the Alaska DHS&EM supports development of HMPs for jurisdictions within the State though various types of planning assistance. This 2018 HMP for the City of Valdez meets the DMA 2000 regulations. 1.1 Goals
HMPs help communities reduce the risk from natural hazards by identifying vulnerabilities and developing strategies to lessen and sometimes eliminate the effects of a hazard. The City of Valdez built this 2018 HMP with the following five goals in mind:
1. Create an awareness of hazard vulnerabilities and facilitate risk reduction actions. Hazard mitigation planning is a systematic process of learning about the hazards that can affect Valdez; setting clear goals; and identifying and implementing policies, programs, and actions that reduce losses from disasters. 2. Improve communication. Hazard mitigation planning requires collaboration and communication between the municipal government, community agencies, industry, small business, and private citizens to ensure all aspects of the community are addressed. Communication between stakeholders sets clear expectations, closes gaps, and reduces the duplication of efforts among organizations with similar or overlapping goals. 3. Create a more sustainable and disaster‐resistant community. There is an intrinsic link between the concept of sustainability and natural hazard risk reduction. An essential characteristic of a sustainable community is its resilience to disasters.
9 4. Establish project and funding priorities. A HMP allows Valdez to better identify and articulate its needs to State and Federal officials when funding becomes available, particularly after a disaster. With an HMP in place and approved by FEMA, Valdez can propose projects as an integral part of an overall, agreed‐upon strategy, rather than as projects that exist in isolation. Mitigation planning coordinates existing and potential mitigation actions into a unified mitigation strategy. Only those states and communities with approved plans that meet DMA 2000 criteria are eligible to receive Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP) funds for mitigation projects. 5. Increase public awareness of natural hazards. Mitigation planning serves to help residents better understand the threat to public health, safety, welfare, economic vitality, and the operational capability of critical infrastructure. 1.2 Plan Area The limits of this 2018 HMP correspond with the Valdez City Limits, encompassing 277 square miles of land and water (Figure 1). Figure 1—Limits of Planning Area
10 1.3 Plan Organization This 2018 City of Valdez HMP represents this community’s unique approach to mitigating adverse impacts of natural disasters. This HMP is organized into the following sections:
Section I: Introduction The Introduction provides a brief overview of the HMP’s background and purpose.
Section II: Planning Process The Planning Process section outlines the manner in which Valdez created the 2018 HMP. It identifies which organizations and entities were involved in the process, how they were involved, and the methods of public participation that were employed. It also provides a detailed description of the decision‐making and prioritization process.
Section III: Risk Assessment The Risk Assessment section includes an analysis of the hazards and risks facing Valdez. It contains detailed hazard profiles, loss estimates, and vulnerability assessments. The Risk Assessment section provides a scientific and technical basis to guide the Mitigation Strategy.
Section IV: Mitigation Strategy The Mitigation Strategy section describes how the City of Valdez intends to reduce losses identified in the Risk Assessment. It includes goals and objectives to guide the selection of activities to mitigate and reduce potential losses. The section contains a prioritized list of cost‐ effective, environmentally‐sound, and technically feasible mitigation actions. It identifies current and potential sources of funding and other resources needed to implement the mitigation actions.
Section V: Plan Adoption The Plan Adoption section establishes that the City of Valdez will formally adopt the Plan by Resolution. This ensures comprehensive mitigation planning, strong program management, and a commitment to mitigation planning.
Section VI: Plan Maintenance The Plan Maintenance section describes how the City of Valdez will monitor, evaluate, and update this 2018 HMP. It establishes a review process and method for measuring progress. FEMA requires HMP updates every five years.
Section VII: Bibliography The Bibliography section contains references to documents used during preparation of this HMP.
11 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION II PLANNING 2.0 Planning Process The planning process began in November 2017 with Jennifer LeMay, PE, PMP contacting the City of Valdez via email to introduce the planning update process. The Planning Team was led by Planning Director Rochelle Rollenhagen of the City of Valdez. Table 1 identifies the Planning Team. Table 1—Hazard Mitigation Planning Team Name Title Organization Phone Rochelle Rollenhagan Planning Director City of Valdez 907.834.3451 Sheri Pierce City Clerk City of Valdez 907.202.0712 Bart Hinkle Police Department City of Valdez 907.202.0348 Rob Comstock Public Works City of Valdez 907.202.0412 Nathan Duval Capital Facilities City of Valdez 907.202.0683 Andrew Keeton Small Boat Harbor City of Valdez 907.831.1879 Paul Nylund Community Development City of Valdez 907.831.2327 [email protected] Kate Huber Community Development City of Valdez dez.ak.us April Mattheus GIS Manager City of Valdez 907.834.3485 Stan Porritt Building Maintenance City of Valdez 907.831.0112 Jay Yunker Community Development City of Valdez 907.707.9285 Sue Moeller Community Development City of Valdez 907.834.3401 Economic Development Martha Barberio City of Valdez 907.834.3490 Director/Emergency Manager Elke Doom Administration City of Valdez 907.835.4313 Local Emergency Planning James McIntyre City of Valdez 907.831.9102 Committee Ken Lares Resident Valdez 907.255.2164 Sam Lares Resident Valdez 907.831.1530 Planning and Zoning Roger Kipar City of Valdez 907.255.3552 Commissioner Planning and Zoning Harold Blehm City of Valdez 907.255.2842 Commissioner Planning and Zoning Victor Weaver City of Valdez 907.461.2031 Commissioner Planning and Zoning Brandon Reese City of Valdez 907.255.4105 Commissioner Planning and Zoning Jess Gondek City of Valdez 907.831.1425 Commissioner Planning and Zoning Don Haase City of Valdez 907.831.3608 Commissioner LeMay Engineering & Patrick LeMay, PE Planner/Consultant 907.250.9038 Consulting, Inc. LeMay Engineering & Jennifer LeMay, PE, PMP Planner/Consultant 907.350.6061 Consulting, Inc. Department of Homeland Brent Nichols, CFM State Hazard Mitigation Officer Security & Emergency 907.428.7085 Management (DHS&EM) The Planning Team met in two meetings on January 24, 2018 (see Section 2.2) and discussed 13 the HMP update process, asked participants to help identify hazards that affect the City and discuss updates to the hazard profiles since development of the 2008 HMP, identified impacts to residential and critical facilities, and identified and prioritized mitigation actions for potential future mitigation project funding. In summary, the following five‐step process took place from November 2017 through May 2018:
1. Organize resources: Members of the Planning Team identified resources, including staff, agencies, and local community members, who could provide technical expertise and historical information needed in updating the HMP. 2. Monitor, evaluate, and update the plan: The Planning Team monitored the HMP to ensure it was used as intended while fulfilling community needs. The team then updated their process to evaluate the plan to compare how their decisions affected hazard impacts. They then outlined a method to share their successes with community members to encourage support for mitigation activities and to provide data for incorporating mitigation actions into existing planning mechanisms and to provide data for the 2018 HMP. 3. Assess risks: The Planning Team identified the hazards specific to Valdez, and with the assistance of a hazard mitigation planning consultant (LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc.), updated the risk assessment. Climate change was evaluated as a new hazard, and the Planning Team decided not to include it as a potential hazard. Inclusion of climate change will be discussed during the 2023 HMP Update. The Planning Team reviewed and updated the risk assessment, including the vulnerability analysis, prior to and during the development of the mitigation strategy. 4. Assess capabilities: The Planning Team reviewed current administrative and technical, legal and regulatory, and fiscal capabilities to determine whether existing provisions and requirements adequately address relevant hazards. 5. Develop a mitigation strategy: After reviewing the risks posed by each hazard, the Planning Team updated the comprehensive range of potential mitigation goals and actions developed in the 2008 HMP and also in 2014 during an interim update.
2.1 Plan Research The City of Valdez Community Development Department staff reviewed several other cities’ HMPs and conducted an extensive literature review of plans from across the country. From this research, Staff determined the 2007 City of Valdez HMP was strikingly deficient in comparison. Using the New York City (NYC) HMP as a model, staff proposed a new plan format and multiple improvements to the 2018 HMP’s content. The 2007 City of Valdez HMP fell significantly short in proper explanation of different disasters and documentation of historic occurrences of hazards within the community. The Community Development staff spent several months gathering the content and historic information needed to improve the Risk Assessment & Mitigation Strategy sections of the 2018 HMP. There are still some data gaps. It is important to note that plans and studies that are in progress now will be completed before the 2023 HMP Update. The results of these plans and studies will be extremely beneficial to incorporate into
14 the 2023 HMP Update to fill the data gaps that are present in the 2018 HMP. These studies include:
1. RiskMap Report for the City of Valdez. by FEMA, RiskMap, and Resilience Action Partners. Currently, in progress by FEMA, RiskMap, and Resilience Action Partners. The scope of work of the City of Valdez Risk MAP Study includes: A detailed coastal flood hazard analysis including the collection of storm surge (coastal hydrology) and overland wave height analysis (coastal hydraulics), as well as floodplain boundaries for 1‐percent and 0.2‐percent‐annual‐chance (100‐ and 500‐year) flood events. A draft map will be developed for the coastal analysis. A riverine analysis will also be performed to include: o hydrology and hydraulic modeling for 3.8 miles of detailed riverine study on Mineral Creek; o 11.7 miles of detailed riverine study on Lowe River; o 4.6 miles of detailed riverine study on Valdez Glacier Stream; o 2.2 miles of detailed riverine study on Robe River; and o 18.7 miles of approximate riverine modeling on various streams. A draft map will be developed for the riverine analysis. Floodplain delineations and the Flood Insurance Study will be updated for the entire City. The 90‐day appeal period for the Preliminary Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) and Flood Insurance Study (FIS) ended February 27, 2018. FEMA expects to issue a Letter of Final Determination in July 2018 approximately. The FIRMs and FIS will become effective around November 2018 ‐ February 2019. 2. Landslide Hazard Assessment; Avalanche Hazard Map; Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard Map Currently, in progress by Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys (DGGS); Executive Summary in progress, awaiting written statement of support from City of Valdez (DGGS has verbal support and have been working with the City for several years on avalanche and outburst flood hazards, but several key individuals have left employment with City of Valdez and the new employees are adapting to the changes. 3. In February 2017, the City Council granted approval to enter into a Feasibility Cost Sharing Agreement with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for a Section 22 Planning Assistance to States (PAS) Study. The City Council provided approval of the written request to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to initiate a PAS of eligibility of a Lowe River 10‐Mile Area Project for a Continuing Authorities Program, Section 205, Small Flood Damage Reduction Project. It has taken the USACE additional time to work through the new guidance for providing technical assistance. They are now at a point where they are ready to execute signing for the PAS for technical assistance on Valdez Glacier Stream and Mineral Creek although the Lowe River is not included in this study. 4. The USADE recommended adding Valdez on the National Level for a Continuing Authorities Program (Cap 205) project. The project area would be focused on a portion of the Lowe River in the vicinity of the Alpine Woods and Nordic Village subdivisions, and the project will most likely involve design and construction of a levy system incorporating existing
15 structures with new structures to reduce the risk of flooding of low areas in the subdivisions.
This 2018 HMP was developed utilizing existing Valdez plans and studies as well as outside information and research. The following list contains the most significant of the plans, studies, and websites that were used in preparing this document. Please see the bibliography for additional sources.
1. Alaska State Hazard Plan. Prepared by and for DHS&EM. 2013.
2. City of Valdez Local Hazards Mitigation Plan. Prepared by Bechtol Planning & Development, 2007.
3. Draft City of Valdez Emergency Operation Plan. Prepared by the City of Valdez on August 15, 2008.
4. City of Valdez Comprehensive Plan. Prepared by the City of Valdez in December 2007.
5. Community of Valdez Strategic Plan 2013‐2018. Prepared by the City of Valdez.
6. Flood Insurance Manual. Prepared by the National Flood Insurance Program. April 2017, and revised in April 2018.
7. DHS&EM Cost Disaster Index; 2016; lists State and FEMA declared disasters for Alaska.
8. Avalanche Hazard Evaluation & Mitigation Recommendations for Town Mountain and Duck Flats Avalanche Areas; evaluated avalanche hazards and recommended mitigation actions.
9. Avalanche Hazard Phase 2 Report, Supplemental Avalanche Dynamics Analysis and Mitigation Design for the Porcupine Street Avalanche Area; evaluated avalanche hazard for the Porcupine Street area and recommended mitigation design.
10. Cvea.org/resources/pdfs/ruralite2/pg4Augst11DamSafety.pdf; provided information on Copper Valley Electric Association’s Solomon Gulch Hydroelectric Project in Valdez.
11. Alpine Woods Estates Detailed Flood Evaluation; 1984; provided recommendations to make this area of Valdez less prone to flood hazards.
12. Evaluation of Stream Stability in the Valdez, Alaska Area; 1989; detailed the flood potentials of Lowe River, Valdez Glacier Creek and Mineral Creek.
13. Effects of the Earthquake of March 27, 1964 at Valdez, Alaska ‐ A Geological Survey Professional Paper 542 C. 16 14. Federal Emergency Management Agency How to Guides a. Getting Started: Building Support for Mitigation Planning (FEMA 386‐1) b. Understanding Your Risks: Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses (FEMA 386‐2) c. Developing the Mitigation Plan: Identifying Mitigation Actions and Implementing Strategies (FEMA 386‐3) d. Bringing the Plan to Life: Implementing the Hazard Mitigation Plan (FEMA 386‐4) e. Using Benefit‐Cost Review in Mitigation Planning (FEMA 386‐5)
15. Department of Commerce, Community, and Economic Development (DCCED) Division of Community and Regional Affairs (DCRA) Community Information: https://www.commerce.alaska.gov/web/dcra/
16. FEMA Benefit‐Cost Analysis Website: https://www.fema.gov/benefit‐cost‐analysis
17. American Planning Association: http://www.planning.org
18. Association of State Floodplain Managers: http://www.floods.org
19. Federal Emergency Management Agency: http://www.fema.gov/plan/hazard‐mitigation‐planning/
20. Community Rating System: https://www.fema.gov/community‐rating‐system
21. Flood Mitigation Assistance Program: https://www.fema.gov/hazard‐mitigation‐assistance
22. Hazard Mitigation Grant Program: https://www.fema.gov/hazard‐mitigation‐grant‐program
23. Individual Assistance Programs: http://www.fema.gov/individual‐assistance‐program‐tools
24. Interim Final Rule: https://www.fema.gov/media‐library/assets/documents/4590
25. National Flood Insurance Program: http://www.fema.gov/national‐flood‐insurance‐program
17 26. Public Assistance Program: http://www.fema.gov/public‐assistance‐local‐state‐tribal‐and‐non‐profit/
2.2 Public Involvement Newsletters #1 and 2 were posted at Safeway, A Rogue’s Garden, U.S. Post Office, City Hall, and the Library inviting Valdez residents to attend a public meeting in January and a work shop/Planning & Zoning Commission Meeting in May. Then, Patrick LeMay of LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. held two meetings on January 24, 2018. The first meeting occurred from 1:00‐3:30 pm with City staff to conduct an introductory meeting, review past and potential mitigation strategies, and update the critical facilities within the community. From 6:00‐7:00 pm was a Planning and Zoning work session devoted to updates of the 2008 HMP mitigation strategies and identification of future mitigation action ideas. Six of the seven Commissioners were present, and a total of 17 people from the community were in attendance.
The Draft HMP was posted on the City’s web‐site with an invitation for all interested parties to review. An invitation was also posted on the City’s web‐site to provide comment at the May 9 Workshop. Twelve people attended the Workshop on May 9, 2018. Due to a lack of quorum of Commissioners, the 7 pm meeting did not occur. However, Jennifer LeMay summarized the plan at 7 pm via a PowerPoint presentation as everyone from the 6 pm Workshop stayed for the presentation. At the meeting, Jennifer LeMay summarized the Draft HMP. Input received was incorporated into the Draft HMP before submission of the HMP Update to DHS&EM and FEMA. Appendix C includes public involvement documentation such as newsletters, a commitment letter, meeting sign‐in sheets, and comments.
18 2.3 Community Resources This section outlines the resources available to Valdez for mitigation and mitigation‐related funding and training.
The federal government requires local governments to have an HMP in place to be eligible for funding opportunities through FEMA, such as through the Pre‐Disaster Mitigation Assistance Program and the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. The Mitigation Technical Assistance Programs available to local governments are also a valuable resource. FEMA may also provide temporary housing assistance through rental assistance, mobile homes, furniture rental, mortgage assistance, and emergency home repairs. The Disaster Preparedness Improvement Grant also promotes educational opportunities with respect to hazard awareness and mitigation.
FEMA, through its Emergency Management Institute, offers training in many aspects of emergency management, including hazard mitigation. FEMA has also developed documents that address implementing hazard mitigation at the local level. Five key resource documents are available from the FEMA Publication Warehouse (1‐800‐480‐2520) and are briefly described below:
How‐to Guides. FEMA has developed a series of how‐to guides to assist states, communities, and tribes in enhancing their hazard mitigation planning capabilities. The first four guides mirror the four major phases of hazard mitigation planning. The last five how‐to guides address special topics that arise in hazard mitigation planning such as conducting cost‐benefit analysis and preparing multi‐jurisdictional plans. The use of worksheets, checklists, and tables make these guides a practical source of guidance to address all stages of the hazard mitigation planning process. They also include special tips on meeting DMA 2000 requirements.
Post‐Disaster Hazard Mitigation Planning Guidance for State and Local Governments. FEMA DAP‐12, September 1990. This handbook explains the basic concepts of hazard mitigation and shows state and local governments how they can develop and achieve mitigation goals within the context of FEMA’s post‐disaster hazard mitigation planning requirements. The handbook focuses on approaches to mitigation, with an emphasis on multi‐objective planning.
Mitigation Resources for Success CD. FEMA 372, September 2001. This CD contains a wealth of information about mitigation and is useful for state and local government planners and other stakeholders in the mitigation process. It provides mitigation case studies, success stories, information about Federal mitigation programs, suggestions for mitigation measures to homes and businesses, appropriate relevant mitigation publications, and contact information.
19 A Guide to Federal Aid in Disasters. FEMA 262, April 1995. When disasters exceed the capabilities of state and local governments, the President’s disaster assistance program (administered by FEMA) is the primary source of federal assistance. This handbook discusses the procedures and processes for obtaining this assistance and provides a brief overview of each program.
The Emergency Management Guide for Business and Industry. FEMA 141, October 1993. This guide provides a step‐by‐step approach to emergency management planning, response, and recovery. It also details a planning process that businesses can follow to better prepare for a wide range of hazards and emergency events. This effort can enhance a business’s ability to recover from financial losses, loss of market share, damages to equipment, and product or business interruptions.
Department of Agriculture. Assistance provided includes: Emergency Conservation Program, Non‐Insured Assistance, Emergency Watershed Protection, Rural Housing Service, Rural Utilities Service, and Rural Business and Cooperative Service.
Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Weatherization Assistance Program. This program minimizes the adverse effects of high energy costs on low‐income, elderly, and handicapped citizens through client education activities and weatherization services such as an all‐around safety check of major energy systems, including heating system modifications and insulation checks.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Homes and Communities, Section 108 Loan Guarantee Programs. This program provides loan guarantees as security for federal loans for acquisition, rehabilitation, relocation, clearance, site preparation, special economic development activities, and construction of certain public facilities and housing.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Community Development Block Grants. Administered by the Alaska DCRA, Division of Community Advocacy, this program provides grant assistance and technical assistance to aid communities in planning activities that address issues detrimental to the health and safety of local residents, such as housing rehabilitation, public services, community facilities, and infrastructure improvements that would primarily benefit low‐and moderate‐income persons.
Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Disaster Unemployment Assistance. Provides weekly unemployment subsistence grants for those who become unemployed because of a major disaster or emergency. Applicants must have exhausted all benefits for which they would normally be eligible.
20 Federal Financial Institutions. Member banks of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or Federal Home Loan Bank Board may be permitted to waive early withdrawal penalties for Certificates of Deposit and Individual Retirement Accounts.
Internal Revenue Service, Tax Relief. Provides extensions to current year’s tax return, allows deductions for disaster losses, and allows amendment of previous tax returns to reflect loss back to three years.
United States Small Business Administration (SBA). May provide low‐interest disaster loans to individuals and businesses that have suffered a loss due to a disaster. Requests for SBA loan assistance should be submitted to the Alaska DHS&EM.
The following are websites that provide focused access to valuable planning resources for communities interested in sustainable development activities.
FEMA, http://www.fema.gov – includes links to information, resources, and grants that communities can use in planning and implementation of sustainable measures.
American Planning Association, http://www.planning.org – is a non‐profit professional association that serves as a resource for planners, elected officials, and citizens concerned with planning and growth initiatives.
Institute for Business and Home Safety, http://ibhs.org – an initiative of the insurance industry to reduce deaths, injuries, property damage, economic losses, and human suffering caused by natural disasters. Online resources provide information on natural hazards, community land use, and ways citizens can protect their property from damage.
2.4 State Resources Alaska DHS&EM is responsible for coordinating all aspects of emergency management for the State of Alaska. Public education is one of its identified main categories for mitigation efforts.
Improving hazard mitigation technical assistance for local governments is a high priority item for the State of Alaska. Providing hazard mitigation training, current hazard information, and the facilitation of communication with other agencies would encourage local hazard mitigation efforts. DHS&EM provides resources for mitigation planning on their website at https://ready.alaska.gov/.
DCRA, Division of Community and Regional Affairs: Provides training and technical assistance on all aspects of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and flood mitigation.
21 Department of Health and Human Services: Provides special outreach services for seniors, including food, shelter, and clothing.
Division of Insurance: Provides help in obtaining copies of policies and provides information regarding filing claims. Department of Military and Veteran’s Affairs: Provides damage appraisals and settlements for Veterans Administration‐insured homes and assists with filing for survivor benefits. 2.5 Other Funding Sources and Resources Real Estate Business. Real estate disclosure is required by state law for properties within flood plains.
American Red Cross. Provides for the critical needs of individuals such as food, clothing, shelter, and supplemental medical needs. Provides recovery needs such as furniture, home repair, home purchasing, essential tools, and some bill payment.
Crisis Counseling Program. Provides grants to State and Borough mental health departments, which in turn provide training for screening, diagnosing, and counseling techniques. Also provides funds for counseling, outreach, and consultation for those affected by disaster. 2.6 Local Resources Valdez has a number of planning and land management tools that will allow it to implement hazard mitigation activities. The resources available in these areas have been assessed by the City and are summarized in the following tables.
Valdez is capable of initiating all the processes in Tables 2, 3, and 4 in order to implement mitigation projects: Table 2— Legal and Technical Capability Do we HAVE these items…and Comments (Year of most recent update; Regulatory Tools (ordinances, codes, plans) the Local problems administering it, etc.) Authority to administer them? Building code Yes Ongoing Update, as necessary Zoning ordinance Yes Ongoing Update, as necessary Subdivision ordinance or regulations Yes Ongoing Update, as necessary Special purpose ordinances (floodplain management, storm water management, Yes Part of the NFIP hillside or steep slope ordinances, wildfire ordinances, hazard setback requirements) Growth management ordinances (also called No “smart growth” or anti‐sprawl programs) Site plan review requirements Yes Comprehensive plan Yes 2007 22 A capital improvements list Yes An economic development plan 2013‐2018 Prince William Sound Yes Economic Strategy that includes the Valdez/Cordova region An emergency response plan Yes 2008 Draft A post‐disaster recovery plan No Real estate disclosure requirements State No local requirement
Table 3—Personnel Capability Does this manager have Staff/Personnel Resources the fiscal Department/Agency and Position responsibility Y/N City Administration City Manager, Elke Doom Yes- city wide Chief Administrative Officer City Planning Department City Planning Director, Rochelle Rollenhagen Yes- for dept. Planning Director City Police Department Police Chief, Bart Hinkle Yes City Clerk City Clerk, Sheri Pierce Yes Department Head City Public Works Public Works Director, Rob Comstock Yes Department Head City Fire Department Fire Department, Tracy Raynor Yes Fire Marshal, Department Head
Emergency Management Coordinator, Yes Economic Development Director/Emergency Martha Barberio Manager
Engineer trained in construction practices related to buildings and/or infrastructure, Nathan Duval Yes Capital Facilities Director Fire Department, Tracy Raynor, Bart Hinkle, Emergency Management Coordinator, Martha Barberio, Rob Comstock and others Planners or Engineer(s) with an in Public Works, Planning Department, understanding of natural and/or human- Rochelle Rollenhagen, Capital Facilities caused hazards Yes Director, Nathan Duval Planning Director Floodplain Manager Yes Rochelle Rollenhagen No certified surveyors, staff with surveying Surveyors No training and experience Fire Department, Tracy Raynor, Bart Hinkle, EMC Coordinator, Martha Barberio, Rob Comstock and others in Public Works, Staff with education or expertise to assess Planning Department, Rochelle Rollenhagen, the community’s vulnerability to hazards Yes Capital Facilities Director, Nathan Duval IT Department Personnel skilled in GIS and/or HAZUS Yes April Mattheus, GIS Manager
Individuals familiar with the hazards of the Various City personnel, local agencies and community Yes organizations Various local non-profits and governmental Environmental Advisory Council Yes agencies exist for this role
23 Table 4—Administrative and Technical Capability Financial Resources Accessible or Eligible to Use (Yes or No) Yes, but very limited due to Valdez’s Community Development Block Grants (CDBG) high median income Yes, Pubic Works mostly but others as Capital improvements project funding approved by City Council Authority to levy taxes for specific purposes Yes Fees for sewer Yes Impact fees for homebuyers or developers for new No developments/homes Incur debt through general obligation bonds With Voter Approval Incur debt through special tax and revenue bonds With Voter Approval Incur debt through private activity bonds No Withhold spending in hazard-prone areas Yes
24 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION III RISK ASSESSMENT 3.0 Risk Assessment The City of Valdez carefully reviewed the history of natural disasters and the potential for future disasters. What follows is an overview of the community, broken down into the following subsections: Natural Environment, Social Environment, and Critical Infrastructure. Following the overview, there is a breakdown of each of the nine identified natural hazards with the potential to affect Valdez: Avalanche, Floods and Erosion, Dam Failure, Earthquake, Landslide, Severe Weather, Tsunami, Volcano, and Wildfire. The individual Hazard Risk Assessment sections contain detailed hazard profiles. The Risk Assessment section provides a scientific and technical basis to guide the Mitigation Strategy.
I. THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT
Geography The City of Valdez is located on the north shore of Port Valdez, an 11‐ mile long deep‐water fjord at the northeastern tip of Prince William Sound. Prince William Sound is separated from the Gulf of Alaska by two barrier islands, Hinchinbrook and Montague. The community lies 305 road miles east of Anchorage, and 364 road miles south of Fairbanks. It lies at approximately 61.130830° North Latitude and ‐ 146.34833° West Longitude (S32, T008S, R006W, Copper River Meridian). Valdez sits at Mile ‐4 of the Richardson Highway. Mile 0 is located at the entrance to Old Town Valdez. The mile markers have not been recalculated since the community was relocated four miles to the west following the 1964 Earthquake. The municipal boundaries encompass 277.1 square miles, including 222.0 square miles of land and 55.1 square miles of water.
Climate Valdez is the northern most tip of the temperate rainforest. Its summers are moist and cool, and its winters are cold and snowy. Valdez averages 360 inches of snow each year (12 feet). In 2004, there were 33 days above 70℉. The average summer high temperature is 60.8℉, and the average summer low temperature is 46.1℉. The average winter high temperature is 27.9℉, and the average winter low temperature is 17.9℉.
Topography Most of the roads, residences, and business are built at or just slightly above sea level. Directly adjacent to the City infrastructure, the Chugach Mountains rise steeply and generally reach 26 between 3,000 – 4,500 feet. Most roads, residences, and businesses are built at or within 200 feet of sea level.
II. THE SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT The social environment in Valdez includes its history, demographics, neighborhoods, and economy. These things influence how the community plans for and responds to natural disasters.
History Valdez was a seasonal fishing village for native Alaskans and did not have permanent residents until the late 1800s when the gold rush started in the Klondike, and prospectors began looking for an All‐American route to the gold. The original town began as a tent city at the bottom of the Valdez Glacier as people attempted the difficult ascent. Permanent structures were eventually erected there, and a small, resident population remained until 1964, when a devastating earthquake caused a massive underwater landslide adjacent to the precarious town. The town ended up subsiding several feet as a result of the landslide. A combination of the devastation, the tidal flooding due to the subsidence, the emotional trauma from the loss of life during the earthquake, and a recommendation from the USACE, convinced Valdez residents to pack up their town and move it four miles to the west. Two local families with large land holdings, the Hazelets and the Meals, donated much of their land for the new townsite. The majority of downtown remains within the originally donated land parcels, and the two main streets are named Hazelet Avenue and Meals Avenue, in honor of these families. The bedrock outcropping south of town offers the town protection, and the new site is said to be much more geologically stable than the old site.
Setting up in a new place allowed Valdez to plan the structure of their town. Where in “old town”, things had happened more haphazardly and accounting for snow removal and other Alaskan trials was not often considered, “new town” created large open park space and structured all roads and lots to facilitate quick and easy snow removal. Some houses from “old town” were saved and moved over; many were burned, and many more new houses were constructed on the new townsite. This history plays a large role in both the geography of “new town” and the psyche of Valdez residents. Most people who live here know the story of “old town” being a dangerous place to live and understand that Valdez had to move, and most people will tell you that “new town” is safer. Structures that were moved from “old town” mean a little something more to the community. People that lived in “old town” as children or young adults are remembered, and families from that time frame still carry a lot of weight in Valdez.
PLANNING TIP: Valdez is used to natural disasters. They have a unique history of surviving natural disasters, overcoming them, and building a new and safer town. The community remembers the danger and generally understands that hazards still exists. This helps in hazard mitigation and training. The community is constantly reminded of its past, and most people are ready to help prepare for a safer future. 27 Demographic The 2010 Decennial Census estimated the population of Valdez to be 3,976. The 2017 Commissioner Certified population was 3,937. The summer population (including tourists and seasonal workers) is estimated by the Fire Department to be approximately 8,000.
PLANNING TIP: Although Valdez falls somewhere in the 12 or 13th largest community in the State of Alaska, this is generally a small, rural town. Much of the populations intersects at the grocery store and through town events. There seems to be a high turnover of resident population in Valdez; among the nearly 4,000 population, there are often new faces.
As of the 2010 U.S. Census, the median age in Valdez was 36.7. This is older than the statewide median of 33.8 but younger than most state median populations. Approximately 75% of the population is 18 or older, leaving one quarter of the population between birth and school age. Five and one‐half percent (5.5%) of the population is over 65 years of age. Valdez can be considered a racially homogenous community with nearly 82% being White; 8% Alaska Native or American Indian; 2% Asian; 1% Black or African American; 1% Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander; 1% Some Other Race; and 5% a combination of two or more races. Fifty‐three percent (53%) of the population is male, and 47% of the population is female.
The American Community Survey five‐year averages for the years 2009‐2013 indicates Valdez is home to 7.8% of the population living below the poverty level. Conversely, the same data show a median household income of $93,625. Nearly 94% of the community has an education level equal to or greater than a high school diploma, and 8% of the Valdez population are veterans.
PLANNING TIP: The majority of people that live in Valdez are well‐educated and have a decent level of income. Most are affluent enough to be connected into the local social media, if not the radio station. The homogeneity makes it easy for the City to get a single message across to the majority of the population relatively quickly.
Neighborhoods The City is comprised of 42 distinct residential, commercial, and industrial subdivisions, and a number of different individual federal and state land survey parcels spread throughout the City limits. With the exception of one, all subdivisions are accessible by road between Mile ‐4 and Mile 18 of the Richardson Highway.
“In Town” Subdivision The majority of subdivisions in the City of Valdez are west of a long stretch of road that crosses a tidal drainage area known locally as the duck flats. These subdivisions are considered to be “in town” and share similarities. Being “in town” means having quick accessibility to convenience stores, restaurants, gas stations, as well as generally living in the “safe area” of “new town” that was built to protect people from subsidence.
Within “in town”, each subdivision has its own particular character, largely created from the
28 conditions when the majority of houses were built. Black Gold subdivision was built by Alyeska in the 1980s to house their staff, and Alyeska built similar looking modular homes across the entire subdivision. Mineral Creek subdivision has the most diverse homes, as some of them were moved from “old town” and some were built after the move. Blueberry Hill, Homestead Road, and Cottonwood subdivisions are more removed from the town core and have a more rural feel. Blueberry Hill homes are affluent and charismatic, and the subdivision has its own rules such as no cutting down of the giant spruce trees. Homestead Road has no street lights and feels more like an outlying subdivision. Cottonwood feels like town except residents have to cross a significant bridge to get to their homes and that creates a bit of separation.
PLANNING TIP: “In Town” subdivisions can generally be lumped into one category, although special care should be taken to reach the three most westerly subdivisions: Blueberry Hill, Homestead Road, and Cottonwood, because they are the most removed from the core of town.
Some of the bigger and better known “In Town” subdivisions are shown in Table 5. Table 5—City of Valdez In Town Subdivisions SUBDIVISION HOUSING TYPE / AGE NOTES Black Gold Mostly modular, some stick‐ Originally Alyeska employee housing. built homes Blueberry Hill Mostly new construction, stick Outlying “In Town” Subdivision ‐Bedrock built homes outcroppings and lots of large spruce trees Cottonwood New Construction Outlying “In Town” Subdivision – Adjacent to Mineral Creek Evergreen Vista 3 large Apartment Buildings, 20 units each, 20 years old Harbor Subdivision Commercial Buildings This is largely the S Harbor Dr Spit, with all the fishing buildings and SERVS. Large population of migrant workers housed in the dorms in the summer. Johnson Trailer Court 10+ mobile homes Mineral Creek Trailer 20+ mobile homes Court Mineral Creek Heights Stick built, newer homes Subdivision does have some topographic relief Mineral Creek Residential Core of town housing, this subdivision has many houses moved from old town Mt Logan, Tazlina Vista, St New construction, zero lot line These are large houses with small yards and Elias homes can suffer from snow removal issues Port Valdez Spread throughout “in town” subdivisions, mostly commercial land or undeveloped Homestead Rd: Including Outlying “In town” subdivision, can be cut off Raven, D‐8, USS 5113 from town with loss of Mineral Creek bridge. Sleepy Hollow Commercial, some residences Large RV parks in the summer time Woodside (Pacific Ave Townhouses. 12 units. Apartments) Winterpark New construction Single family Adjacent to Elementary School homes, residential
29 Figure 2—Locations of the In‐Town Subdivisions
30 Figure 3—Locations of the In‐Town Subdivisions
31 “Out of Town” subdivisions Once across the duckflats, there are several categories of “Out of Town” subdivisions. The closest is the Loop Road /Airport Area. About four miles away are the Corbin Creek and Robe River subdivisions. About six miles out is a group of subdivisions around a “Robe Lake” Subdivision that include Cummings Way, Corbin Loop, and Deep Lake Drive addresses. The farthest subdivision within City limits is known as the “10‐mile area” or Alpine Woods. Past our City limits, through the Keystone Canyon but just before Thompson Pass is a small community of people in a subdivision called Heiden View. Although outside City limits, they rely on the City for most of their needs and should be considered in large scale disasters.
Some of the bigger and better known “Out of Town” subdivisions are shown in Table 6. Table 6—City of Valdez Out of Town Subdivisions SUBDIVISION HOUSING TYPE / AGE NOTES Airport Industrial Varies, some new residents Currently this subdivision has a population of mixed in with old mobile home about 6 people. Dirt roads. Wells and Septic. and heavy industrial Corbin Creek New Construction Larger lots, new homes, some concern for liquefaction. Dirt Roads. Wells and septics. Aleutian Village 90 mobile home spaces – older Many of these mobile homes are past their mobile homes (20‐30+ years) life expectancy and collapse during heavy winters. Of the 90 original spaces, there are only about 60 trailers left. Water and sewer. Glacier View Trailer Park 20 mobile home spaces This is a more transient mobile home park, mostly used for Harris employees. Water and sewer. Alpine Village 3 four‐plex housing units. Multi‐ Apartment complex around mile 6 of family residential Richardson Highway. Adjacent to Rainbow Apartments / Dunning property. Well and septic. Lowe River Undeveloped State subd. Northern portion very susceptible to flooding. Currently, no houses. City should attempt to avoid development there. 10‐Mile Area: Including Varies – Mobile Homes, Stick‐ Farthest subdivision from town within City Alpine Woods, Nordic built and modular. Rural limits. Susceptible to flooding, protected by Residential. levees. Dirt Roads. Wells and septic. Northern Lights Residential Adjacent to Robe River. Dirt roads. City water, septic Richardson Business Park Commercial / Residential Some City water, some wells, septic. Robe Lake Rural Residential State Subdivision, Dirt roads, no city services. Very steep in places. Wells and septic. Robe River Residential Most populous outlying subdivision. Water and septic. Susceptible to groundwater flooding and overland flooding from Robe River. Switzerland 8 duplex housing units Native housing project. Valdez Industrial Park Undeveloped 1 commercial gravel extraction operation, otherwise non‐developed. Valdez Mobile Home Park 100+ Mobile Homes Susceptible to high winds. (VHMP, South Central) Valdez Townsite (Old Light Industrial, several In condemnation area of Army Corps of Town) residences in Northern areas Engineers. Susceptible to liquefaction, 32 tsunami/seiche wave inundation, and flooding. Zook Commercial / residential. The south side of this subdivision is very low Mobile homes & stick built lying and susceptible to coastal flooding and tsunami/seiche wave inundation.
Figure 4—Subdivisions Outside of the Central Business District
Economy
For its efforts in rebuilding, Valdez was voted an All‐America City in 1965. Valdez was once again named an All‐America City in 1982 for its diversified economic growth, which has stabilized encompassing the oil industry, fishing, and tourism.
III. Vulnerability Analysis The vulnerability analysis is a summary of the City of Valdez’s vulnerability to hazards profiled in this HMP. This summary includes the types of hazard and the types of structures, infrastructure, and facilities potentially affected by the hazards. Some of the hazards are area‐wide in scope while others impact certain area of the community to a greater or lesser extent. Table 7 provides an overview of the City’s vulnerability.
33 Table 7—Vulnerability Overview for the City of Valdez Percent of Percent Percent of City’s Percent of of Community Hazard Geographic Population Building Facilities and Area Stock Utilities Avalanche 15% 15% 15% 15% Dam Failure 5% 5% 5% 5% Earthquake 50% 50% 50% 50% Flood & Erosion 20% 20% 0% 0% Landslides 5% 0% 0% 5% Severe Weather 50% 50% 50% 50% Tsunamis 50% 50% 50% 50% Volcanic Hazards 50% 50% 50% 50% Wildfire 25% 25% 25% 25%
Overview of the Vulnerability Analysis A vulnerability analysis predicts the extent of exposure that may result from a hazard event of a given intensity in a given area. The analysis provides quantitative data that may be used to identify and prioritize potential mitigation measures by allowing communities to focus attention on areas with the greatest risk of damage. A vulnerability analysis is divided into five steps: 1. Asset Inventory; 2. Methodology; 3. Data Limitations; 4. Exposure Analysis for Current Assets; and 5. Areas of Future Development. The requirements for a vulnerability analysis, as stipulated in DMA 2000 and its implementing regulations, are described here. A summary of the community’s vulnerability to each hazard that addresses the impact of each hazard on the community. An identification of the types and numbers of existing vulnerable buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities and, if possible, the types and numbers of vulnerable future development. Estimate of potential dollar losses to vulnerable structures and the methodology used to prepare the estimate. Vulnerability Analysis: Specific Steps
Asset Inventory Asset inventory is the first step of a vulnerability analysis. Assets that may be affected by hazard events include population (for community‐wide hazards), residential buildings (where data is available), and critical facilities and infrastructure. The assets and associated values throughout Valdez are identified and discussed in detail in the following subsections. 34 Population and Building Stock The 2010 Decennial Census estimated the population of Valdez to be 3,976. The 2017 Commissioner Certified population was 3,937. The summer population (including tourists and seasonal workers) is estimated by the Fire Department to be approximately 8,000. The total land and building appraised value of $779,250,144 is based on the City of Valdez 2017 certified real property tax rolls. Table 8 summarizes the City of Valdez 2017 certified real property tax rolls. Table 8—City of Valdez 2017 Certified Real Property Tax Rolls Acres Land Appraisal Building Appraisal Total Land and Building Appraisal 176,562.5 $206,162,050 $573,088,094 $779,250,144
Existing Critical Facilities and Infrastructure A critical facility is defined as a facility that provides essential products and services to the general public, such as preserving the quality of life in Valdez and fulfilling important public safety, emergency response, and disaster recovery functions. The critical facilities profiled in this HMP include the following: Government facilities, such as City administrative offices, departments, or agencies; Emergency response facilities, including police and fire; Educational facilities, including K‐12; Care facilities, such as medical clinics, congregate living health, residential and continuing care, and retirement facilities; Community gathering places, such as community and youth centers; and Utilities, such as electric generation, communications, water and waste water treatment, and landfills. Critical facilities are identified in Table 9. Table 9—Identified Critical Facilities
Facility Name Location Wildfire Tsunami Avalanche Earthquake Landslides Dam Failure Flood & Erosion Severe Weather Occupancy Type Volcanic Hazards
City Hall 212 Chenega Ave. Court Building 213 Meals Ave. Post Office 221 Tatitlek Ave. Facility Public Works Shop 220 Pioneer Dr. Government
Valdez Pioneer Field 300 Airport Rd. Seaplane Base 4099 Robe Lake Rd. Heliport Hospital 911 Meals Ave. Facilities City of Valdez Transportation 300 Airport Rd. Heliport
35 Facility Name Location Wildfire Tsunami Avalanche Earthquake Landslides Dam Failure Flood & Erosion Severe Weather Occupancy Type Volcanic Hazards
AK MHS 520 Ferry Way Terminal/Dock John Kelsey Muni 460 Ferry Way Dock Valdez Container 1460 Container Terminal Terminal Rd. Valdez Small Boat 300 N. Harbor Dr. Harbor New Boat Harbor 198 S. Harbor Dr. Trans‐AK Pipeline 300 Dayville Rd. Terminal Valdez Police 212 Chenega Ave. Department Fire 1 220 Pioneer Dr.
Fire 2 300 Airport Rd. Fire 3 124 River Dr. Fire 4 7111 Richardson Hwy. Facility Alaska State 213 Meals Ave. Trooper
Emergency Response Alaska Wildlife 214 Meals Ave. Trooper 321 Egan Ave. Suite Valdez Preschool 109 Herman Hutchens 1009 W. Klutina St. Elementary Gilson Middle 357 Robe River Dr. School Valdez High School 319 Robe River Dr. Prince William
Educational Facility Sound Community 303 Lowe St. College PWSCC Dorms Pioneer & Alatna
Providence Valdez 911 Meals Ave. Medical Center Valdez Medical 1001 Meals Ave. Clinic PWSCC Wellness Care Facility 303 Lowe St. Center
R o a City‐owned Roads 393,339 linear ft
36 Facility Name Location Wildfire Tsunami Avalanche Earthquake Landslides Dam Failure Flood & Erosion Severe Weather Occupancy Type Volcanic Hazards
State‐owned Roads 305,595 linear ft
Solomon Gulch 61.0838 N, Bridge ‐145.8939 W Richardson Highway 61.1373 N, Bridge‐ Glacier ‐146.3445 W
Bridges Stream Mineral Creek 61.1296 N, Bridge ‐146.3546 W City of Valdez 720 Glacier Haul Rd. Landfill Jess & Maxine 303 Lowe St. Whitney Museum Valdez Museum & 217 Egan Ave. Historical Archive Valdez Museum 436 Ferry Way Annex Old Town Valdez 2380 7th Ave. Historic Cemetery 2880 Richardson Hwy. Community Valdez Salmon 1561 Dayville Rd. Hatchery Keystone Canyon Shootout Site AK 4 (Tunnel) Senior Center 1300 E. Hanagita St. Valdez City Library 212 Fairbanks Dr. Copper Valley 329 Fairbanks Dr. Telephone Coop CVEA CoGen Plant 2501 Dayville Rd. Alyeska Pipeline 300 Dayville Rd. Service Company Solomon Gulch Hydroelectric 1550 Dayville Rd. Facility
Utilities Valdez Diesel Plant/Don Smith 527 W. Egan Dr. Substation Water and Wastewater 800 Sawmill Dr. Treatment Facility Mineral Creek 1231 Mineral Creek 37 Facility Name Location Wildfire Tsunami Avalanche Earthquake Landslides Dam Failure Flood & Erosion Severe Weather Occupancy Type Volcanic Hazards
Canyon Reservoir Rd. Blueberry Hill (West 1080 W. Egan Dr. Egan) Reservoir Airport Industrial Subdivision 300 Atigun Dr. Reservoir Robe River Subdivision 311 Dylen Dr. Reservoir City‐wide piped 235,606 linear ft water City‐wide piped 204,642 linear ft wastewater Crowley Petroleum 105 Airport Rd.
North Pacific Fuel 201 Hazelet Ave. Commercial
38 Figure 5—Valdez Town Center Critical Infrastructure
39 Figure 6—Valdez Outside of the Town Center Critical Infrastructure
Future Critical Facilities and Infrastructure The City of Valdez will be relocating its main fire department building, Fire Station #1, to a downtown location that has yet to be decided in 2019‐2020. Petro Star Inc. will be expanding its existing tank farm to include an additional 50,000‐gallon unleaded gasoline tank and associated infrastructure in 2019. The new City of Valdez small boat harbor will open in 2019.
The City has future plans to run water and sewer lines out the Richardson Highway to serve the Corbin Creek, Robe Lake, and Blue Spruce subdivisions. This infrastructure improvement will also spur other residential and commercial development along the Richardson Highway. New road and street paving and expansion will also take place in various locations as development occurs.
Land Development Trends The City of Valdez is a unique community as its location was moved four miles to the west of the existing town site after the 1964 earthquake. Some of the historical buildings from “old town” were relocated but the majority of existing structures were built after 1965. This has enabled the community to redesign itself, creating subdivisions located on collector streets with many cul‐de‐sacs and diverse housing, from single‐family residences and zero lot line homes to multi‐family housing and mobile homes. Housing outside of the town proper is also diverse and typically on larger tracts of land that are mostly served by on‐site water and sewer. However, larger subdivisions with smaller lot sizes that have grown up along the Richardson Highway now desire City sewer and water, and it is a City priority to eventually accommodate these citizens. Lack of adequate and affordable housing continues to be a problem, even when 40 the population of Valdez remains relatively steady at approximately 4,000 permanent residents. This figure increases substantially in the summer with seasonal employment. The City has encouraged filling in when possible, and the most logical expansion continues to be in the Cottonwood Subdivision, located west of the Betty Cato Bridge across Mineral Creek. This expansion has been discussed since 1991 but recent interest in building the area out has increased. Edison Chouest, the oil tanker escort and spill response company, built 10 new single‐family homes for their employees in 2017. Although the shortage in housing continues to be an obstacle to growth and development, the City has plans for increased land sales where feasible.
Commercial land use is centered in the central business district and the area around the boat harbor. The City has maintained a beautification effort of the downtown district and is attempting to create a friendly, healthy shopping atmosphere for citizens and tourists alike. Large snow lots double as City parks in the summer and host a variety of events and activities. There are not many retail sales outside of the City proper, only a small convenience store located approximately four miles east of town towards the airport. However, light industrial use exists along the Richardson Highway, and on West Egan Drive, most notably the currently expanding Petro Star tank farm.
The prominent industrial land use in Valdez is the Alyeska Terminal Facility that supports the Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). This facility occupies 576 acres of land across Port Valdez and remains the largest employer and industrial land use in Valdez. The proposed Trans Alaska Gas System (TAGS) would require an additional 650 acres of industrially zoned land. The area south of and adjacent to Anderson Bay is the location most often recommended for the TAGS. Other industrial uses include gravel extraction, cement processing, and fish processing operations.
Methodology A conservative exposure‐level analysis was conducted to assess the risks of the identified hazards. This analysis is a simplified assessment of the potential effects of the hazards on values at risk without consideration of probability or level of damage.
Critical facilities were identified by the Planning Team and were compared to locations where hazards are likely to occur. If any portion of the critical facility fell within a hazard area, it was counted as being exposed and vulnerable to the particular hazard.
Replacement structure and contents values were developed for physical assets. These values were obtained from the City of Valdez.
For each physical asset located within a hazard area, exposure was calculated by assuming the worst‐case scenario (that is, the asset would be completely destroyed and would have to be replaced). Finally, the aggregate exposure, in terms of replacement value or insurance coverage, for each category of structure or facility was calculated. A similar analysis was used to
41 evaluate the proportion of the population at risk. However, the analysis simply represents the number of people at risk; no estimate of the number of potential injuries or deaths was prepared.
Data Limitations The vulnerability estimates provided herein use the best data currently available, and the methodologies applied result in an approximation of risk. These estimates may be used to understand relative risk from hazards and potential losses. However, uncertainties are inherent in any loss estimation methodology, arising in part from incomplete scientific knowledge concerning hazards and their effects on the built environment as well as the use of approximations and simplifications that are necessary for a comprehensive analysis.
It is also important to note that the quantitative vulnerability assessment results are limited to the exposure of people, buildings, and critical facilities and infrastructure to the identified hazards. It was beyond the scope of this HMP to develop a more detailed or comprehensive assessment of risk (including annualized losses, people injured or killed, shelter requirements, loss of facility/system function, and economic losses).
Exposure Analysis The results of the exposure analysis for loss estimations in City of Valdez are summarized in Tables 10 and 11.
42 Table 10—Hazard Vulnerability Summary Flood & Severe Volcanic Avalanche Dam Failure Earthquake Landslides Tsunami Wildfire Erosion Weather Hazards Extent Critical Critical Critical Limited Limited Critical Critical Negligible Negligible Probability Highly Likely Unlikely Likely Likely Possible Highly Likely Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely Location Primarily Areas below Entire Valdez Riverine and Coastal Entire Valdez Coastal Areas Volcanic Ash Primarily Thompson the Dams Area glacier‐ areas Area within the fallout with during Pass 25‐miles and the dammed Earthquake inundation an easterly extremely dry North of road into outburst created zone prevailing weather Valdez on the Alyeska flooding on landslides wind only road Glacier into the into the Stream, Lowe Ocean Community River, and resulting in Mineral Creek. a Tsunami. Alpine Woods Subdivision. Port and Harbor facilities. At‐Risk 596 199 1,988 795 199 1,988 1,988 1,988 994 Population At‐Risk $85,963,214 $28,654,404 $286,544,047 $155,850,028 $28,654,404 $286,544,047 $286,544,047 $286,544,047 $194,812,536 Building Value
43 Table 11—Hazard Risk Assessment Summary Dam Flood & Volcanic Avalanche Earthquake Severe Weather Tsunami Wildfire Failure Erosion Landslides Hazards Consequence Possible loss Possible Injuries or Damage or Possible High winds can Injuries or Illness & Illness & to People of shelter, loss of deaths, loss of loss of shelter, loss of cause injury or deaths, loss of death from death from injury, or shelter, shelter, hardship due shelter, death, delays in shelter, respiratory respiratory death; road injury, or disruption of to disruption injury or ferry or air disruption of distress; distress; blockage and death vital services of death service. Severe vital services injuries & Injuries or its such as transportation. cold can cause such as death caused death due consequences medical, Loss of some hypothermia medical, by accidents to fire, as there is water, sewer, medical and frostbite. water, sewer, due to lower heat, only one road power, and services. power, and visibility; smoke and in/out of transportation transportation Disruption of structure Valdez transportation collapse. and services Consequence Loss or Loss or Damage to Water erosion Loss or Damage to Damage to Structural Loss or to Property damage of damage of structures, undercuts damage of roofs, utility structures, damage due damage of structures, structures, roads, foundations, structures, lines, disruption roads, and to weight of structures, vehicles vehicles utilities, footings, and vehicles, of fuel and utilities ash, damage vehicles runways stream banks. roads essential to electronic Flooding can supplies, equipment & close roads disruption of machinery and cause well communications. contamination.
44 Road System Valdez is accessible by only one road, the Richardson Highway. In fact, Valdez sits at Mile ‐4 of the Richardson Highway. Mile 0 is located at the entrance to Old Town Valdez. The mile markers have not been recalculated since the community was relocated four miles to the west following the 1964 Earthquake.
Air Transportation Valdez has one airport, Valdez Pioneer Field. It is operational and open to the public. There is one air traffic control tower at this airport, but there is not any fuel. The apron and runway are owned and operated by the State of Alaska, Department of Transportation and Public Facilities (ADOT&PF). The airport building is owned and operated by the City of Valdez, Port Department. The 6,500‐foot‐long runway is capable of serving large jet traffic. It has a single wheel 75,000 lbs. weight limit, a 200,000 lbs. dual wheel weight limit, and a 300,000 lbs. double tandem wheel weight limit. For fuel, 100LL and Jet A is available from Vertical Solutions with prior arrangements (907‐835‐0643), and Jet B is available from Maritime Helicopters (907‐835‐4501).
Currently, the community is served by one statewide commuter airline, RAVN Alaska. They provide a few commercial flights daily. There are several commercial helicopter companies that operate out of Valdez. In the summer, they often run sightseeing tours. In the winter, there are heli‐skiing companies. In the summer, Valdez is also a popular destination for floatplane owners. The State of Alaska has leased a dock in Robe Lake for use as a seasonal floatplane landing site, but there is currently no one maintaining it.
Figure 7 shows the airport and floatplane base.
45 Figure 7—Airport and Float Plane Base
ADOT&PF AIRPOT MANAGER: (907) 835‐5658
Water Transportation Valdez has four main water transportation sites: The Alaska Marine Highway Ferry Terminal, the John Kelsey Municipal Dock, the Valdez Container Terminal, and the Valdez Small Boat Harbor. The City is currently constructing a fifth site, an additional boat harbor that is scheduled for completion in 2020. The Trans‐Alaskan pipeline oil terminal, or the Valdez Marine Terminal, is a private terminal on the South side of the Port of Valdez that serves as a private marine terminal for the loading of oil tankers.
Emergency Services The City of Valdez emergency services include the Valdez Police Department (VPD) and the Valdez Fire Department (VFD). Other agencies in the community also provide emergency assistance, if necessary. This includes the Alaska Wildlife Trooper and the Alaska State Parks Ranger stationed in Valdez. Winter search and rescue operations are aided by members of the Alaska Avalanche Information Center and the Valdez Snowmachine Club. The American Red Cross has a field representative in Valdez to assist persons with post‐disaster relief.
Valdez also has one Community Emergency Response Team for Alpine Woods and its vicinity. In 46 the event an incident requires the activation of an Emergency Operations Center, City staff members are assigned to fill the roles of Incident Management Team members within the National Incident Management System Incident Command System structure. Figure 8 shows the locations of the police and fire stations within the community. Figure 8—City of Valdez Police and Fire Stations
POLICE STATION (907) (Emergency 9‐1‐1): 10 Police officers, minimum 2 on duty at all times.
FIRE STATION 1 (907) 835‐4560 (Emergency 9‐1‐1): 5 bays housing 2 engines, 1 squad car and 2 advance life support ambulances. Full time staff working 24‐hour shifts, 365 days a year. Minimum of two people staffing at all times. There are a total of 27 firefighters (10 full‐time and 17 volunteers, and 33 EMS).
FIRE STATION 2: Located within airport building, only used for storage of disaster supplies, hazmat trailers, spare hazmat gear, firefighting foam.
FIRE STATION 3: 1 engine and 1 tanker. Manned by volunteers when responding to calls. FIRE STATION 4: 1 engine, 1 tanker and an advance life support ambulance. Manned by volunteers when responding to calls. Across the road, there is 1,100 gallons per minute (gpm) well house utilized for a water supply to assist in fire suppression.
47 Hospitals and Healthcare Valdez has one hospital, Providence Valdez Medical Center (PVMC). The facility is owned by the City of Valdez and is operated by Providence Health & Services Alaska. PVMC has 11 acute‐ care/swing beds and has a 10‐bed assisted living center. Connected to PVMC is the Valdez Medical Clinic with three to four full time general care physicians. Figure 9 shows the location of the hospital and clinic. Figure 9—Providence Health & Services Alaska
Severe cases are usually medevac’d to Anchorage via the Airport. There is a helicopter landing pad beside the emergency room.
The Valdez High School is the alternate hospital in the event the facility is damaged beyond use.
PROVIDENCE MEDICAL CENTER, 911 Meals (907) 835‐2249
BEHAVIORAL HEALTH CONTACT INFO, (907) 835‐2838
Educational Facilities Valdez City Schools serves just over 600 school‐aged children ages 5‐18. The District is
48 comprised of three different facilities: Herman Hutchens Elementary School, Gilson Middle School, and Valdez High School. The school facilities may also serve as emergency shelters.
Valdez is also home to Prince William Sound Community College (PWSCC) that is now part of the Alaska University System. PWSCC serves three communities including the Copper Basin in Glennallen, Cordova, and Valdez. In Valdez, the campus has two separate locations, the three residence halls situated between Pioneer and Alatna Streets, and the main academic facility. The main Valdez campus includes the Wellness Center, a full‐service community health club facility; and the Jess & Maxine Whitney Museum, a collection of Alaska Native artifacts and artwork and Alaska animal mounts.
The locations of these educational facilities are shown in Figure 10: Figure 10—Educational Facilities within the City of Valdez
HERMAN HUTCHENS ELEMENTARY (907) 835‐4728: 305 students, 40 staff GILSON JUNIOR HIGH (907) 835‐2244: 140 students, 20 staff VALDEZ HIGH SCHOOL (907) 835‐4767: 176 students, 25 staff PWSCC (907) 834‐1600: 100 full time students, 55 Staff
49 Cultural Facilities/Locations & Recreational Infrastructure Although a small community, Valdez is proud of its amazing cultural treasures. Additionally, a myriad of recreational opportunities exists, especially when considering the City’s trail system. The cultural facilities include the Valdez Museum & Historical Archive, the Valdez Museum Annex, and the Jessie & Maxine Whitney Museum located at PWSCC. Two other important locations include Old Town Valdez – the original site of the community prior to the 1964 Earthquake, and the Historic Cemetery.
Recreation abounds in Valdez. The Valdez Trail System is vast (50.85 Round Trip Miles). Table 12 lists the City’s summer access trails. The City also grooms many miles of trails for winter ski, snowshoe and hiking use.
Table 12—City of Valdez Summer Trails Trail Length (Round Trip) Dock Point Trail 0.75 Miles Mineral Creek Trail 12.2 Miles Solomon Gulch Trail 3.8 Miles Shoup Bay Trail: Section A 6.5 Miles Shoup Bay Trail: Section B 12.6 Miles Keystone Canyon Pack Trail 5.2 Miles Goat Trail 3.2 Miles Wagon Road Trail 6.6 Miles
Maps of all Valdez summer and winter trails can be found on the City of Valdez Parks and Recreation web‐page at: http://www.ci.valdez.ak.us/index.aspx?nid=149.
Other areas of recreational significance include four State Parks, two of which are just outside the City limits, including Mineral Creek State Park and Shoup Bay State Park. Two parks are located on Thompson Pass outside of the City limits, but are considered part of the greater Valdez area, include Blueberry Lake Campground State Park and Worthington Glacier State Park. There are many State of Alaska maintained trails and parks within the Valdez area. Trail and Park maps can be located on the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of Parks & Outdoor Recreation web‐page at: http://dnr.alaska.gov/parks/aktrails/explore/trailmapguide.htm
Energy Copper Valley Electric Association (CVEA) is the member‐owned cooperative providing electrical service to all residential and commercial users within Valdez and the Copper Basin. The exception is Alyeska Pipeline Service Company (APSC) at the Valdez Marine Terminal for the Trans‐Alaska Pipeline. The Terminal generates its own power supply. Electrical power is created through a combination of hydro, diesel generators, and a co‐generation facility.
Solomon Falls provides hydro power through the Solomon Gulch Hydroelectric Facility. The 12‐ megawatt Solomon Gulch hydroelectric facility is located on Dayville Road in Valdez. Power is 50 generated by two Fuji Francis water turbines. The facility began providing power to CVEA customers in 1982. CVEA operates its dispatch center from this facility. The plant is manned 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Plant operators are responsible for the operation of up to four generation plants at one time via remote control operations. From the hydro plant, operators can start and stop units in any or all of CVEA's three generation facilities: Glennallen diesel, Valdez diesel, or the cogeneration plant, as well as the hydro project.
The Valdez Diesel Plant (VDP)/Don Smith Substation was constructed after the 1964 Good Friday Earthquake that caused the City of Valdez to relocate to its present location. The plant houses one Fairbanks Morse 38D8 1/8 opposed piston unit, three Enterprise DSR 46 units, and a trailer‐mounted Solar Centaur turbine unit. The available generation capacity of this plant is 8.9 megawatts. The three largest units are remotely‐controlled from the Solomon Gulch hydroelectric facility.
The CVEA Cogeneration Plant is a state‐of‐the‐art facility located at the Petro Star Valdez Refinery. It is a five‐megawatt Solar turbine and heat recovery unit that utilizes "light straight run" as its fuel source and provides exhaust heat to the attached crude heater, for Petro Star's use in the refining process. The plant was completed in the spring of 2000 and is remotely‐ controlled from the Solomon Gulch hydroelectric facility.
The Glennallen Diesel Plant (GDP) is the oldest of CVEA's three thermal plants. It has expanded over the years to meet the needs of customers. The available generation capacity of the plant is 11 megawatts. The GDP houses a total of seven diesel engines; three Fairbanks Morse 38D8 1/8 opposed piston units, two Enterprise DSR 46 units, one Caterpillar 3516B, and one EMD unit with a capacity of 2.8 megawatts. The five largest units are remotely‐controlled from the Solomon Gulch hydroelectric facility.
CVEA's service areas are tied together with a 106‐mile, 138‐kilovolt transmission line that is owned and operated by CVEA. The transmission line provides the link to all four generating plants. Power can flow from any of the generating facilities to end consumers. Historically, power flows from the Solomon Gulch hydro plant to the Copper Basin district during the summer months. The transmission line traverses severe terrains between the two districts, and parts of it, in the Thompson Pass area, have severe avalanche risk. The transmission line was last damaged by an avalanche in December 2009. CVEA is currently going through the process to relocate part of the transmission line.
The vast majority of heat and hot water, for both residential and commercial users, is through diesel fuel‐powered furnaces and boilers. There are two local providers of heating fuel, Crowley Petroleum and North Pacific Fuel. Crowley’s product is shipped to Valdez via truck. North Pacific Fuel receives its diesel supply from the local Petro Star Refinery. Fuel is delivered via truck to individual homes and businesses, usually on a monthly basis. Both companies also supply propane. Some household and small commercial customers use propane for cooking or to power other appliances like dryers. 51 Natural gas is not available in Valdez.
Figure 11 shows the local CVEA infrastructure locations and the office locations of the two fuel supply company offices. Figure 11—Copper Valley Electric Association Facilities
Telecommunications For over 50 years, Copper Valley Telephone Cooperative (CVTC), dba Copper Valley Telecom, has served the Valdez and Copper River Basin areas, providing high quality communication services including landline telephone for residents and businesses, calling features, long distance, high speed Internet connectivity, and wireless voice and data. In addition, CVTC provides high capacity special access services for businesses and telecommunication carriers their robust fiber and microwave network.
Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment The Water and Sewer Treatment Utility is comprised of four full‐time staff who are responsible for the daily operations of providing quality drinking water and treating domestic waste for the community. There are three Class A and one Class B public drinking water systems providing over 1.8 million gallons of water a day to the residents of Valdez. Eight pump stations are capable of moving approximately 920,000 gallons of sewage a day to the Valdez Sewer Treatment Plant facility where it is treated in an aerated, complete‐mix, three‐stage lagoon system. The staff also maintains a certified laboratory for performing microbiological analysis of drinking water. 52 The Utility maintains four water reservoirs located on lower Town Mountain near the entrance to Mineral Creek Canyon, Blueberry Hill, Airport Industrial Subdivision, and Robe River Subdivision. Approximately three quarters of the community are served by the public water system. Valdez is currently trying in 2018 to add another in‐town City well. The other quarter is served by private on‐site wells. These Class C wells are not regulated by the State or the City.
Approximately 60% of the community is served by the public sewer system. The remaining users (almost exclusively residential) are served by domestic on‐site wastewater treatment systems, commonly known as septic systems. Installation of septic systems is regulated by both the State and the City. The City of Valdez has jurisdictional authority over plan review and inspection for conventional septic system installation. The State of Alaska, Department of Environmental Conservation retains jurisdictional authority over engineered systems.
Structural Vulnerability to Natural Hazards The physical assets in Valdez are vulnerable to a variety of hazards. Valdez is located in one of the most seismically‐active locations on the globe. Increasingly stringent building codes help mitigate potential damage from seismic activity. Yet structures built under previously‐adopted codes are at risk for earthquake damage. Winter weather, specifically snow and wind loading, cause stress to the built environment. The strain of annual near capacity snow loading, and seasonally high (hurricane equivalent) winds may shorten commonly accepted building life‐ spans and the ability to withstand these hazards over time. High wind events can cause tree felling and debris to fly into the air. Buildings and infrastructure within the floodplain are susceptible to flooding. These are just some examples of how, overall, a structure’s geographic and physical attributes generally affect its susceptibility to certain natural hazards.
City of Valdez Building, Zoning and Subdivision Codes The City of Valdez adopted the 2009 International Building (IBC) and 2009 International Residential (IRC) Code in December 2012. The City will continue to update its codes by adopting the International Building and Residential Codes as updated versions are released and as the City can accommodate revisions. The City has also adopted local revisions addressing areas of local concern. Many of the code provisions address natural hazard mitigation including standards to protect buildings from hazards of concern to Valdez like earthquakes, floods, and winter weather including snow and wind. The Zoning and Subdivision codes also include aspects necessary to address local hazard mitigation.
53 Risk Assessment Requirements
Section 201.6(c)(2) of the mitigation planning regulation requires local jurisdictions to provide sufficient hazard and risk information from which to identify and prioritize appropriate mitigation actions to reduce losses from identified hazards. (FEMA 386‐8)
The goal of mitigation is to reduce the future impacts of a hazard including loss of life, property damage, and disruption to local and regional economies, environmental damage and disruption, and the amount of public and private funds spent to assist with recovery. Mitigation efforts begin with a comprehensive risk assessment. A risk assessment measures the potential loss from a disaster event caused by an existing hazard by evaluating the vulnerability of buildings, infrastructure, and people. It identifies the characteristics and potential consequences of hazards and their impact on community assets.
Federal regulations for HMPs outlined in 44 CFR Section §201.6(c)(2) include a requirement for a risk assessment. This risk assessment requirement is intended to provide information that will help the community identify and prioritize mitigation activities that will prevent or reduce losses from the identified hazards. The federal criteria for risk assessments and information on how the Valdez HMP meets those criteria are outlined below
The description of each of the identified hazards includes a narrative, and, in some cases, a map of the following information:
The location or geographical areas in the community that would be affected. The location of identified hazards is described by a map wherever appropriate or in some cases with a narrative statement.
The extent (i.e. magnitude or severity) of potential hazard events is determined. The following table is used to rank the extent of each hazard. Sources of information to determine the extent include the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Mitigation Plan, historical or previous occurrences, and information from the location of the hazard. Table 13—Extent of Hazard Ranking Magnitude/Severity Criteria to Determine Extent
□ Mul ple deaths 4 ‐ Catastrophic □ Complete shutdown of facilities for 30 or more days □ More than 50% of property severely damaged □ Injuries and/or illnesses result in permanent disability 3 ‐ Critical □ Complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two weeks □ More than 25% of property is severely damaged □ Injuries and/or illnesses do not result in permanent disability 2 ‐ Limited □ Complete shutdown of critical facilities for more than one week □ More than 10% of property is severely damaged
54 Magnitude/Severity Criteria to Determine Extent
□ Injuries and/or illnesses are treatable with first aid □ Minor quality of life lost 1 ‐ Negligible □ Shutdown of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less □ Less than 10% of property is severely damaged
The impact of the hazard or its potential effects on the community is described.
The probability of the likelihood that the hazard event would occur in an area. The following table, taken from the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Mitigation Plan, categorizes the probability of a hazard occurring. Sources of information to determine the probability include the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Mitigation Plan, historical or previous occurrences, and information from the location of the hazard. Table 14—Probability Criteria Table Probability Criteria Event is probable within the calendar year. Event has up to 1 in 1 year’s chance of occurring (1/1=100%). 4 ‐ Highly Likely History of events is greater than 33% likely per year. Event is "Highly Likely" to occur. Event is probable within the next three years. Event has up to 1 in 3 year’s chance of occurring (1/3=33%). 3 ‐ Likely History of events is greater than 20% but less than or equal to 33% likely per year. Event is "Likely" to occur. Event is probable within the next five years. Event has up to 1 in 5 year’s chance of occurring (1/5=20 %). 2 ‐ Possible History of events is greater than 10% but less than or equal to 20% likely per year. Event could "Possibly" occur. Event is possible within the next ten years. Event has up to 1 in 10 year’s chance of occurring (1/10=10%). 1 ‐ Unlikely History of events is less than or equal to 10% likely per year. Event is "Unlikely" but is possible of occurring.
The previous occurrences of natural events are described for identified natural hazards. The information was obtained from the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Mitigation Plan, 2016 State Disaster Cost Index, City records, other state and federal agency reports, newspaper articles, web searches, etc.
55 Section 1. Identifying Hazards This section identifies and describes the hazards likely to affect Valdez. The community used the following sources to identify the hazards present in the community: the 2013 Alaska All‐ Hazard Risk Mitigation Plan, interviews with experts and long‐time residents, and previous occurrences of events.
Table 15 is taken from the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Mitigation Plan. Data for Table 16, the Previous Occurrences Matrix, comes from the DHS&EM Disaster Cost Index, including data from 1978 to 2016 and major events such as the 1964 earthquake. It may not include events known to the community or from other sources discussed in the sections describing specific hazards. This table refers to the Chugach Regional Educational Attendance Area (REAA). Table 15—Hazard Matrix Hazard Matrix – Chugach REAA
Flood Wildland Fire Earthquake Volcano Avalanche
Y‐H Y‐M Y – H Y‐L Ground Tsunami & Severe Weather Erosion Y‐H Failure Seiche Y‐M Y‐L Y‐M Y‐H Source: 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Mitigation Plan Hazard Identification: Y: Hazard is present in jurisdiction but probability unknown Y‐L: Hazard is present with a low probability of occurrence within the next ten years. Event has up to 1 in 10 year’s chance of occurring. Y‐M: Hazard is present with a moderate probability of occurrence within the next three years. Event has up to 1 in 3 year’s chance of occurring. Y‐H: Hazard is present with a high probability of occurrence within the next one year. Event has up to 1 in 1 year’s chance of occurring.
56 Table 16—Previous Occurrences of Hazards from 1978 to Present Previous Occurrences – Chugach REAA
Wildland Avalanche Flood Earthquake Volcano Fire 3‐L 3 ‐ L 0 1‐L 0
Severe Ground Tsunami & Seiche Erosion Weather Failure
0 4 ‐ L 1 ‐ L 0
Source: 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Mitigation Plan Identification of Natural Hazards Present in Valdez Based on consultation with the Alaska DHS&EM, Tables 15 and 16 from the 2013 Alaska All‐ Hazard Risk Mitigation Plan, Valdez plans and reports and interviews, Valdez community members identified the following hazards to be profiled. Table 17—Hazards Identification and Decision to Profile Hazard Yes/No Decision to Profile Hazard
Designated as a hazard in the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Flood Yes Mitigation Plan. Designated as a hazard in the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Wildland Fire Yes Mitigation Plan. Designated as a hazard in the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Earthquake Yes Mitigation Plan. Designated as a hazard in the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Volcano Yes Mitigation Plan. Designated as a hazard in the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Avalanche Yes Mitigation Plan. Designated as a hazard in the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Tsunami & Seiche Yes Mitigation Plan. Designated as a hazard in the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Severe Weather Yes Mitigation Plan. Designated as a hazard in the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Landslide Yes Mitigation Plan. Designated as a hazard in the 2013 Alaska All‐Hazard Risk Erosion Yes Mitigation Plan. The community of Valdez decided to eliminate Climate Change as Climate Change Yes a hazard at the January 24, 2018 public meeting.
57 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION III RISK ASSESSMENT
AVALANCHE
58 3.1 Avalanche Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska 3.1.1 Hazard Profile
A. Hazard Description The climate of a region strongly influences both the amount of snow found in the area’s potential avalanches’ paths and the type of snow pack structure. These, in turn, affect the characteristics (e.g., the run‐out distance, velocities, and impact pressures) of the avalanches, which are likely to occur. Valdez has primarily a maritime snow climate. This means the region is typically wet and warm. Because of its coastal location, Valdez is subject to prolonged storms and frequent cloud cover. Snow accumulations of great depth are likely, and winter rains are common. Valdez can receive exceptionally heavy amounts of precipitation in short periods of time. During the winter of 1989‐1990, total snowfall measured 561”, with 47.5” measured in a single day in January 1990. The maximum snow depth at sea level, also recorded in January 1990, was 107”.
Avalanches affecting lower elevations in the Valdez area (although there are marked annual variances) can typically be expected to occur between November and May, with the greatest potential for larger avalanches between January and April. From available historical records, February appears a prime month. Generally, in a maritime snow climate, the overall snow pack is often relatively strong with short‐lived periods of instability associated primarily with storm events or spring warming. Even relatively small amounts of rain or cold, dry snow pack can lead to widespread instability. A snow pack that received consistent rain is less sensitive to additional rain. Glide cracks are common in maritime snow packs, particularly during deep snow pack years. Prone to develop mostly on steep, smooth, lubricated slopes, glide cracks are tensile failures, which can lead to slab avalanches releasing to the ground weeks, or even months after the glide crack forms.
It is important to note that maritime snow climates are often subject to pronounced changes in snow pack conditions with elevation due to differences in temperature, precipitation, and wind. This is especially true at northern latitudes. At higher elevations in the Valdez area, it is common to find colder temperatures, drier snow, and greater deposition of new and wind‐ loaded snow than at sea level. Colder conditions, more typical of a “continental” type climate, can be conducive to the formation of weak, poorly‐bonded layers. The importance of this is that these weak layers can persist for long periods of time and become deeply buried under successive layers of heavier, more typically maritime snow. The result, often months later, can be large, deep slab releases. Even in a maritime climate, it is possible to have relatively‐dry, cold snow layers at all elevations, a factor that allows avalanches to easily accelerate and entrain additional snow in their descent.
The time required for a large avalanche, which descends in a bounding, wave‐like manner, to flow past a given point in the tract is estimated to be roughly 10‐20 seconds, depending upon topography and snow conditions. Typically, the dynamic impact pressures reach a level two to five times as high as the norm, with subsequent peaks somewhat less. Each peak may last only 59 one‐tenth of a second, while the power blast itself (i.e., the leading edge of the avalanche) may precede the core by only a fraction of a second or by many seconds depending upon the topography, the consistency of the snow pack, and the character of the climate. Generally, however, the elapsed time from initial to maximum impact is less than a second. Such large, dry snow avalanches typically tend to descend in a straight line, regardless of small terrain barriers, and are capable of exerting tremendous thrust pressures, horizontally, vertically, and laterally.
In general, colder, drier snow avalanches will tend to travel longer distances, obtain greater velocities, and cover larger areas than will warmer, wetter avalanche events of similar initial size in a given path. This is not to imply that wetter slides, which involve denser snow than dry slides, are lacking in force or scope. Under the right conditions of low surface adhesion, wet slides are able to travel long distances and alter their direction of travel by 90° or more.
Information and data for this section was taken from the following two sources:
Avalanche Hazard Evaluation & Mitigation Recommendations for Town Mountain and Duck Flats Avalanche Areas. Prepared by Doug Fesler and Jill Fredston, Alaska Mountain Safety Center, Inc. for the City of Valdez. May 1, 2000
Avalanche Hazard Phase 2 Report, Supplemental Avalanche Dynamics Analysis and Mitigation Design for the Porcupine Street Avalanche Area. Prepared by: Doug Fesler and Jill Fredston, Alaska Mountain Safety Center, Inc. for the City of Valdez. September 19, 2000
B. Previous Occurrences Annually, in mid to late spring, dozens of avalanches can be seen and heard on the higher elevations of the south‐facing peaks surrounding the basin of Port Valdez. As a rule, the run‐ outs of these avalanches come nowhere near the mountain bases; and consequently, nowhere near developed areas of Valdez.
In the area north of Valdez, beginning in Keystone Canyon (Richardson Highway Milepost (MP ~15) and ending near MP 50, there is significant potential for avalanche activity that can reach and block the Richardson Highway which is the only means of surface transportation in and out of Valdez.
The historical record of major avalanches affecting the Valdez area is incomplete (i.e., avalanches have occurred for which no records exist) and of short duration. Avalanche data from NOAA 2017 is summarized in Table 18. Table 18—NOAA Avalanche Data EVENT DAY YEAR MONTH TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE Anecdotal memory – a house was taken out that stood near 1996 Avalanche where the Crooked Creek Interpretative Center currently is. 5 2006 February Avalanche 131 Rapid warming conditions consisted of heavy snow and rain over 60 northern Prince William Sound. This resulted in unstable snow loading in the Chugach mountains which in turn resulted in avalanches in Thompson Pass. The Richardson Highway was closed for nearly 12 hours while ADOT crews cleared the avalanches off the highway. An avalanche occurred near Mile 28.5 in Thompson Pass resulting 7 2008 April Avalanche 131 in the fatality of one man. A very warm and wet weather pattern for a couple of weeks over South‐Central Alaska resulted in numerous avalanches in the Chugach Mountains. Of note was the avalanche down Snow Slide Gulch, about 16 miles northeast of Valdez. Five to six inches of rainfall in the days prior to the avalanches are likely the reason these avalanches were so massive. The first avalanche occurred on the afternoon of January 24, resulting in nearly 40 feet of snow blocking the Lowe River and Richardson Highway. This resulted in the water damming behind the avalanche about 1 to 1.5 miles upstream across the Richardson Highway. This was followed by a larger avalanche the afternoon of the 25th that added to the previous snow depth increasing the blockage to over 70 feet of snow. The lake that formed behind the avalanche took over five days to drain low enough to allow ADOT crews to begin removing the avalanche snow from the road. The only known damages from this were some road signs and guard rail damaged. The cost for removal of the snow to reopen the road was in the thousands of 24 2014 January Avalanche 131 dollars.
Though outside the municipal boundaries of Valdez, slides along Thompson Pass can have a very real impact on Valdez residents. The Richardson Highway is the only surface transportation route in and out of Valdez. The electrical transmission line between Valdez and the Copper Basin region runs parallel to the highway through Thompson Pass. Since 1998, five destructive avalanches have resulted in $2.675 million in damage to the support towers and transmission line. A summary of those damages is shown in Table 19. Table 19—Avalanche Damage Summary Date Towers Damaged by Avalanche Repair Period Repair Cost December 1998 45‐2* 39 Weeks $1,500,000 January 2000 46‐3, 47‐2 5 Weeks $350,000 January 2003 46‐2 7 Weeks $280,000 February 2006 46‐3 4 Weeks $340,000 December 2009 46‐3 5 Weeks $205,000 Damavalanche 2014 This event occurred on the other side of the pass and did not damage any towers.
*The 1998 avalanche hit and carried Tower 45‐2 260 feet downhill. Six adjacent towers were also damaged due to the high‐strength conductor not breaking. The high‐strength conductor has since been replaced with a weaker conductor in this area.
61 C. Location, Extent, Impact, and Probability of Future Events Location Valdez is known for snow. Thompson Pass receives an average of 600 inches per year. During the winter of 1952, 974.1 inches of snow fell in Thompson Pass, the most ever recorded in the U.S., according to the City. Thompson Pass is located on the Richardson Highway between Valdez and Glennallen. The Richardson Highway is the only road into Valdez from the rest of Alaska. Figures 12 and 13 show identified avalanche areas within Valdez, and Figure 14 shows the avalanche control zones for Thompson Pass.
Extent Avalanches tend to occur repeatedly in localized areas and can sheer trees, cover communities and transportation routes, destroy buildings, and cause death. The amount of damage is related to the type of avalanche, the composition and consistency of the material in the avalanche, the force and velocity of the flow, and the avalanche path. Avalanches usually occur on slopes between 25 and 50 degrees, with most starting between 30 and 40 degrees. They can be triggered by both natural and human factors.
Alaska leads the nation in avalanche accidents per capita. This is because some of the most‐ traveled roads pass through avalanche‐prone areas and because there is a high frequency of backcountry avalanches triggered by the many hikers, skiers, and snowmachine users. There is growing exposure to this hazard as participation in winter recreational activities increases.
Based on past events and the criteria identified in Table 13 (Extent of Hazard Ranking), the magnitude and severity of erosion impacts in the City are considered critical in that injuries that result from the hazard could result in permanent disability, with the potential for critical facilities to be shut down for at least two weeks, and more than 25% of property or critical infrastructure being severely damaged.
Impact Snow avalanches are swift, downhill‐moving snow masses. Even moderate‐sized avalanches are capable of producing impact loads 10 to 20 times greater than the typical lateral loading capacity of wood‐framed structures. For example, an avalanche traveling at a speed of approximately 65 mph with a flow density of approximately 100 kg/m (typical dry Powder snow) could exert a lateral pressure of 940 lbs./ft. By comparison, a force of 40‐80 lbs./ft. is sufficient to break windows in houses while forces ranging from 400‐600 lbs./ft. are capable of breaking mature trees and destroying wood frame structures. The problem of avalanche impact is exacerbated when structures are built broadside to the direction of the flow.
The Richardson Highway is the only road in and out of Valdez as the City is tucked between the Chugach Mountains and Prince William Sound. As recently as December 6, 2017, a winter storm produced more than 40 inches of snow on Thompson Pass and triggered an avalanche that shut down the highway to Valdez. In just 90 minutes, 15 inches of snow had fallen. The Richardson Highway was closed from Miles 12 to 42. The avalanche was 20 feet deep and 200 62 feet long. It was estimated to take about five hours to clear, but "depending on conditions, it could be a couple days before we get there," ADOT&PF Spokesperson Meadow Bailey said (Anchorage Daily News, Snowstorm triggers avalanche in Thompson Pass, closing road to Valdez, December 7, 2017). In 2014, two giant avalanches closed the road, one of which created a snow dam and backed up the Lowe River, complicating efforts to clear the highway of the massive avalanche debris. Probability Based on the Planning Team’s statements concerning previous occurrences and the criteria identified in Table 14 (Probability Criteria), it is highly likely that an avalanche will occur within the calendar year, has up to 1 in 1 year’s chance of occurring (1/1=100%), and history of events is greater than 33% likely per year.
D. Vulnerability Assessment The City of Valdez has created an Avalanche Zoning District for specific areas of the community at risk to avalanche danger. Development and use within the zoning district is limited to low‐ density, seasonal use to mitigate the potential for life safety issues and property destruction.
Per the risk assessment, avalanche is a highly likely hazard with a hazard ranking of critical. However, the only critical facility impacted is the Richardson Highway preventing road access into and out of the community. This hazard affects access the Valdez community and an unknown amount of people outside the Valdez community trying to access Valdez. DGGS is presently working on an Avalanche Hazard Map. This map will be completed before the 2023 HMP Update and will be incorporated into the hazard profile.
Impacts to future populations, residences, critical facilities, and infrastructure are anticipated at the same impact level.
63 Figure 12—City of Valdez Avalanche Areas
64 Figure 13—City of Valdez Avalanche Areas
65 Figure 14—Thompson Pass Avalanche FAA Control Zones
66 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION III RISK ASSESSMENT
DAM FAILURE 3.2 Dam Failure Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska 3.2.1 Hazard Profile
A. Hazard Description Dam failure is the uncontrolled release of impounded water resulting in downstream flooding which can affect life and property. Valdez has one dam within its City limits, and no other dams affecting the community or the watershed.
The Solomon Gulch Hydroelectric Project (SGHP) is a 12‐megawatt facility serving Valdez and the Copper Basin. It is located on Solomon Gulch Creek, on Valdez Bay, directly across from the City of Valdez. The project was developed by constructing a dam and dike at the outlet of Solomon Lake, raising the elevation of this natural lake by 77 feet. The project consists of: a dam and dike on Solomon Gulch Creek, approximately 3,800 feet upstream of the bay, and 600 feet above the powerhouse, impounding some 31,650 acre‐feet of water in a 660‐acre reservoir; a powerhouse located near tidewater; and two 48‐inch diameter, above‐ground steel penstocks to convey water down slope to the powerhouse turbines.
The Valdez Salmon Hatchery, owned and operated by Valdez Fisheries Development Association, is located immediately below the Solomon Gulch Powerhouse, just across Dayville Road. Dayville Road connects the Project Powerhouse with the City of Valdez. It also connects the City of Valdez with the Alyeska Marine Terminal facility, located approximately two miles west of the SGHP. The Dayville Road Bridge crossing Solomon Creek is immediately west of the SGHP Powerhouse.
In addition to Copper Valley Electric’s internal procedures, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) sets standards for Solomon Gulch Dam, and these standards are governed by regulations and guidelines that are used every day at the SGHP. The plant is staffed 24 hours a day, 365 days per year with a qualified operator. The operator controls all the shutoff valves necessary to stop water from flowing down the two pipes (penstocks). If there was a break in the penstock or a malfunction at the turbine, the operator can stop the water with remotely‐controlled switches. This gives the operator a chance to immediately address penstock related problems at the first indication of any leaks or unusual changes in water flow.
To assist the operator, highly‐technical arrays of sensors and monitors that provide real time feedback have been installed. These sensors tell the operator about any problems such as too much volume coming down Solomon Gulch Creek or the penstock. In addition, the sensors tell the operator about high temperature/fire warnings, vibration warnings, lake level readings, and other variables all related to the safety of the equipment and the personnel in the vicinity of the plant.
This array of sensors feed into the Early Warning System and the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system. In additional to monitoring water conditions, Copper Valley Electric has a strict inspection standard to look at the dam and other structures. As an 68 example, there are 32 monuments built into the dam, dike, and spillway. A professional surveyor regularly visits these monuments and measures for movements to one hundredth of an inch. The structures are measured for front and back movement. Any movement larger than 0.02 inches requires action or increased inspection.
Routine inspections of the dam are conducted every week, but the dam is also inspected when earthquakes occur. The dam has an Emergency Action Plan, and training is conducted at least twice a year with Valdez emergency response agencies.
Information and data for this section was taken from the following source: www.Cvea.org/resources/pdfs/ruralite2/pg4Augst11DamSafety.pdf Figure 15—Location of the Solomon Gulch Reservoir and Dam
B. Previous Occurrences The dam has not failed in its history.
69 C. Location, Extent, Impact, and Probability of Future Events Location The dam is located on the south shore of the Valdez Arm, approximately four miles southeast of Valdez. A paved road provides access to the dam.
Extent Based on past events and the criteria identified in Table 13 (Extent of Hazard Ranking), the magnitude and severity of dam failure to the City are considered critical.
Impact Per the 2013 Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan, the hazard potential is high if the dam failed. Approximately 31,650 acre‐feet of water would be released.
Probability Based on the criteria identified in Table 14 (Probability Criteria), it is unlikely that a dam failure will occur within the next ten years, the event has up to 1 in 10 year’s chance of occurring (1/10=10%) with history of events less than or equal to 10% likely per year. This event is "Unlikely" but is possible of occurring.
D. Vulnerability Assessment Per the risk assessment, dam failure is an unlikely hazard with a hazard ranking of critical. Impacts to future populations, residences, critical facilities, and infrastructure are anticipated at the same impact level.
70 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION III RISK ASSESSMENT
EARTHQUAKE 3.3 Earthquakes Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska 3.3.1 Hazard Profile
A. Hazard Description Approximately 11% of the world’s earthquakes occur in Alaska, making it one of the most seismically active regions in the world. As reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquakes Hazard Program, three of the 10 largest quakes in the world since 1900 have occurred in the state, including the second largest in 1964 with an epicenter located just 30 miles from Valdez. Earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater occur in Alaska on average of about once a year; magnitude 8 earthquakes average about 14 years between events. The dates and magnitudes for the largest earthquakes recorded worldwide and in Alaska are shown in Table 20. Table 20—Largest Recorded Earthquakes Worldwide Magnitude Alaska Magnitude 1960 Chile 9.5 1964 Prince William Sound, Alaska 9.2 1964 Prince William Sound, Alaska 9.2 1965 Rat Islands 8.7 2004 Sumatra, Indonesia 9.1 1957 Andreanof Islands 8.6 2011 Japan 9.0 1938 Shumagin Islands 8.3 1952 Kamchatka, Russia 9.0 1949 Queen Charlotte Fault 8.1 2010 Chile 8.8 1986 Andreanof Islands 8.0 1906 Ecuador 8.8 1899 Cape Yakataga 8.0
Most large earthquakes are caused by a sudden release of accumulated stresses between crustal plates that move against each other on the earth’s surface. Some earthquakes occur along faults that lie within these plates. The dangers associated with earthquakes include ground shaking, surface faulting, ground failures, snow avalanches, seiches and tsunamis.
Ground shaking is due to the three main classes of seismic waves generated by an earthquake. Primary waves are the first ones felt, often as a sharp jolt. Shear or secondary waves are slower and usually have a side‐to‐side movement. They can be very damaging because structures are more vulnerable to horizontal than vertical motion. Surface waves are the slowest, although they can carry the bulk of the energy in a large earthquake. The damage to buildings depends on how the specific characteristics of each incoming wave interact with the buildings’ height, shape, and construction materials.
The severity of earthquakes is usually measured in terms of their magnitude and intensity. The severity of an earthquake depends on the amount of energy released at the epicenter, the distance from the epicenter, and the underlying soil type. All these factors affect how the ground shakes, known as Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), and what a building experiences, known as Spectral Acceleration (SA) during an earthquake.
72 Magnitude is related to the amount of energy released during an event while intensity refers to the effects on people and structures at a particular place. According to the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program – Earthquake Glossary, the magnitude is a number that characterizes the relative size of an earthquake. Magnitude is based on measurement of the maximum motion recorded by a seismograph. Several scales have been defined, but the most commonly used are (1) local magnitude (ML), commonly referred to as "Richter magnitude," (2) surface‐wave magnitude (Ms), (3) body‐wave magnitude (Mb), and (4) moment magnitude (Mw). Scales 1‐3 have limited range and applicability and do not satisfactorily measure the size of the largest earthquakes. The moment magnitude (Mw) scale, based on the concept of seismic moment, is uniformly applicable to all sizes of earthquakes but is more difficult to compute than the other types. All magnitude scales should yield approximately the same value for any given earthquake. Earthquake magnitude is usually reported according to the standard Richter scale for small to moderate earthquakes. Large earthquakes, like those that commonly occur in Alaska are reported according to the moment‐magnitude scale because the standard Richter scale does not adequately represent the energy released by these large events.
Intensity measures the effects of an earthquake at a particular place and is usually reported using the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale. This scale has 12 categories ranging from not felt to total destruction. Different values can be recorded at different locations for the same event depending on local circumstances such as distance from the epicenter or building construction practices.
Table 21 below shows the approximate comparison between Richter scale magnitude and Modified Mercalli Intensity. Table 21—Magnitude and Intensity Comparison Richter Magnitude Typical Maximum MMI Scale 1.0 to 3.0 I 3.0 to 3.9 II to III 4.0 to 4.9 IV to V 5.0 to 5.9 VI to VII 6.0 to 6.9 VII to IX 7.0 and Higher VIII or Higher
Table 22 describes the effects of the various intensity ratings of the MMI scale. Table 22—MMI Scale Rating MMI Damage/Perception I Not felt except by a very few under especially favorable conditions II Felt only by a few people at rest, especially on upper floors of buildings Felt quite noticeably by people indoors, especially on upper floors of buildings III Many people do not recognize it as an earthquake Standing motor cars may rock slightly
73 Vibrations similar to the passing of a truck Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day At night, some wakened IV Dishes, window, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound Sensation like heavy truck striking building Standing motor cars rocked noticeably Felt by nearly everyone, many awakened Some dishes, windows broken V Unstable objects overturned Pendulum clocks may stop Felt by all; many frightened Some heavy furniture moved VI Few instances of fallen plaster Damage slight Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction Slight to moderate damage in well‐built ordinary structures VII Considerable damage in poorly‐built or badly‐designed structures Some chimneys broken Damage slight in specially‐designed structures Considerable damage in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse VIII Damage great in poorly‐built structures Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls Heavy furniture overturned Damage considerable in specially‐designed structures Well‐designed frame structures thrown out of plumb IX Damage great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse Buildings shifted off foundations Some well‐built wooden structures destroyed X Most masonry and frame structures destroyed with foundations Rails bent Few, if any, masonry or frame structures remain standing XI Bridges destroyed Rails bent greatly Total damage XII Lines of sight and level are distorted Objects thrown into the air
Soil conditions are a major factor on the severity of an earthquake at a given location. Seismic waves propagate out from the earthquake epicenter and travel outward through the bedrock up into the soil layers. As the waves move into soils, how stiff or soft the soil is affects the wave speed and velocity. Generally, in a stiff or hard soil, the wave will travel at a higher velocity. With soft soils, the wave will slow, traveling at lower velocities. With slower waves, the seismic energy is modified, resulting in waves with greater amplitude. The amplification results in greater earthquake damage.
The National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program is in the process of collecting soil 74 classifications from the USGS to map area soil strata to show its propensity for ground motion. Such mapping is currently not available for this part of Alaska. Upon its completion, it will be added to this section of the HMP.
Surface faulting is the differential movement of the two sides of a fault. There are three general types of faulting. Strike‐slip faults are where each side of the fault moves horizontally. Normal faults have one side dropping down relative to the other side. Thrust (reverse) faults have one side moving up and over the fault relative to the other side.
Earthquake‐induced ground failure is often the result of liquefaction, which occurs when soil (usually sand and course silt with high‐water content) loses strength as a result of the shaking and acts like a viscous fluid. Liquefaction causes three types of ground failures: lateral spreads, flow failures, and loss of bearing strength. In the 1964 Alaska earthquake, over 200 bridges were destroyed or damaged due to lateral spreads. Flow failures damaged the port facilities in Seward, Valdez, and Whittier.
Similar ground failures can result from loss of strength in saturated clay soils, as occurred in several major landslides that were responsible for most of the earthquake damage in Anchorage in 1964. Other types of earthquake‐induced ground failures include slumps and debris slides on steep slopes.
B. Previous Occurrences Alaska is the most seismically active state and has had seven of the 10 largest earthquakes in the U.S. Every location in Alaska has some level of earthquake hazard, but the level of earthquake hazard varies significantly with location within the state. Valdez is located in the very high earthquake hazard area of Alaska
Historically, awareness of seismic risk in Alaska has generally been high, among both the public at large and public officials. This high level of awareness reflects the high level of seismic activity in many parts of Alaska as well as the long‐lasting memory of the Good Friday earthquake of March 27, 1964, which was one of the largest earthquakes experienced anywhere in the world in the past 100 years.
The awareness of seismic risk in Alaska has increased because of the devastating earthquakes and tsunamis in Indonesia in 2004 and Japan in 2011. The geologic settings for the Indonesia and Japan earthquakes are very similar to the Aleutian Subduction Zone along the Alaska coast.
Earthquakes are described by their magnitude (M), which is a measure of the total energy released by an earthquake. The most common magnitude is the “moment magnitude” which is calculated by seismologists from the amount of slip (movement) on the fault causing the earthquake and the area of the fault surface that ruptures during the earthquake. Moment magnitudes are similar to the Richter magnitude, which was used for many decades but has now been replaced by the moment magnitude.
75 Since 1900, Alaska has had an average of: One "great" earthquake (magnitude 8 or larger) every 13 years; One magnitude 7 to 8 earthquake every year; Six magnitude 6 to 7 earthquakes per year; Forty‐five magnitude 5 to 6 earthquakes per year; Three hundred twenty magnitude 4 to 5 earthquakes per year; and An average of 1,000 earthquakes are located in Alaska each month.
Six earthquakes are reported to have seriously affected Port Valdez from 1899‐1964. During each of these earthquakes, events indicating submarine slides or possible liquefaction of the bottom sediments of Port Valdez were reported. “Seismic sea waves” (seiching) were also reported during four of these earthquakes. The following is a brief summary of the effects of these events at Port Valdez (Coulter and Migliaccio, 1966).
September 3, 1899 ‐ A magnitude 8.3 earthquake occurred near Yakutat Bay (60° N 142° W). Strong ground shaking and “earthquake water waves” were reported in Valdez. It was also reported that a ship, which was anchored in 40 feet of water at the mouth of the Lowe River in 1898, was unable to reach bottom with 200 feet of cable at the same location after the 1899 earthquake. If these reports are factual, a massive submarine slide must have occurred in the deltaic sediments at the mouth of the Lowe River. The distance from Port Valdez to the reported epicenter of the 1899 event (165 miles) is such that bedrock accelerations were probably on the order of 0.05 g’s, and rich with low frequency vibrations. Moreover, the depth of the sediments and their probable density leads one to believe the amplitude of shaking experienced by the soil deposit was also quite small. However, due to the magnitude of this earthquake, the duration of shaking was probably on the order of several tens of seconds. Seismic excitation of this nature is more apt to induce liquefaction in loose fine sand deposits such as those found at the mouth of the Lowe River, rather than slope failure due to over‐ stressing associated with inertial forces generated in the rather flat slope. It is probable that excess pore pressures gradually increased in the fine‐grain non‐cohesive sediments during this event until the soil’s effective shear strength was reduced below that required for stability of the slope, thus precipitating a massive sub‐aqueous flow slide.
February 14, 1908 – The second reported earthquake to significantly affect the Port Valdez occurred just north of Port Fidalgo (61°N 146.25°W). No magnitude has been assigned to this event; however, Modified Mercalli Intensity of VI is attributed to the assigned epicenter. Again, violent ground shaking and sea waves were reported at Valdez. Additionally, the submarine communications cables linking Valdez and Sitka, and Valdez and Seward were broken and buried in several places along the bottom of Port Valdez. No evidence of submarine slides was reported; therefore, faulting was thought to be the culprit. However, no manifestations of faulting could be detected anywhere on shore. It is very unlikely that faulting could have occurred across narrow Port Valdez, and not left a trace along the shore; therefore, a more probable explanation for burial of several sections of the cable is liquefaction of the sediments 76 in Port Valdez. Liquefaction within these sediments is probable for the same reasons stated for the 1899 earthquake. The effects on the cables due to liquefaction would be much like those reported. That is, a complete loss of bearing (shear strength) due to liquefaction of the sediments supporting the cables would cause the cables to sink below the mud line. If only isolated areas along the continuously supported cable lost all bearing capacity, the cables would sag and stretch between the remaining sections supported in competent soil, would break, and would be buried by the surrounding sediments as they sunk into the “liquefied” soil. Furthermore, another phenomenon directly attributable to the submarine cables is a sub‐ aqueous flow slide in the soft upper sea bottom sediments. Flow slides within gently sloping sea bottom sediments have been reported during previous earthquakes in other regions of the world. “Flow slides”, as the term implies, occur when saturated soil attains the consistency of a very thick viscous fluid with very little, if any, shear strength, and actually flows down slope. Flow slides have been known to occur in very flat slopes, and to have traveled overland great distances. Some slides of this nature have progressed down slope very slowly such that people could literally move out of their path on foot, and some have traveled at speeds in excess of 100 mph. It is quite possible that shallow flow slides could have been triggered in the sediments of Port Valdez by earthquake induced liquefaction and could have traveled along the sea bottom for enough to break and bury the submarine communications lines sometime after strong ground shaking ceased. It is also possible that the topographic effects of slides of that nature could go undetected during routine bathymetric surveys. Therefore, it is more probable that liquefaction of the fine sands within Port Valdez was the cause of the cable breaks rather than sub‐aqueous faulting.
September 21, 1911 – A magnitude 6.5 earthquake and three aftershocks occurred between Seward and Whittier (60.5°N 149.0°W). Moderate ground motion was reported at Valdez, and minor talus slides were observed on Valdez Glacier. However, no cracking or distress of the glacier was observed. The submarine cables were again severed as in the 1908 event; however, the separation of the cables did not take place until “several seconds” after the earthquake stopped. The severing and burial of the cables was again attributed to faulting at the bottom of Port Valdez; however, no faulting was observed on shore. The fact that the cables were not broken until some moments after shaking subsided almost forces one to reject faulting as a cause of the cable breaks and accept some manifestation of liquefaction as the applicable phenomenon. The strongest evidence is that liquefaction quite often is manifested after ground shaking ceases, yet surface faulting must always be accompanied by near‐field ground shaking. Non‐liquefaction‐induced sub‐aqueous slides could have been the cause of cable burial; however, the probability is remote because the slope of the bottom fjord was only 50 feet to the mile (<1%) in the location where the cable was buried. It is very unlikely that accelerations at the mud line of the sediments associated with the magnitude and epicenter distance of this earthquake could have generated appreciable down slope movement of the sediments near enough to affect the cable.
January 31, 1912 – The fourth earthquake, not as well documented, is known to have affected Port Valdez. The earthquake has been assigned a magnitude 7.25 and epicentral location at 77 61°N 147.5°W (40 miles west of Valdez). Once again, the submarine cables were broken in Port Valdez.
February 23, 1925 – The fifth earthquake occurred, west of Glennallen and Copper Center. No magnitude determinations were made for this event, but a Modified Mercalli Intensity of VII was assigned at the epicentral location (NOAA). Strong ground shaking caused structural damage to buildings and the dock at Valdez. Power lines were broken, and the submarine cables were severed once more. Seiching in Port Valdez also caused extensive damage to the boardwalk along Water Street.
March 27, 1964 The magnitude of this quake measured 8.4 ‐ 8.6 on the Richter scale and was reported as a 9.2 Moment Magnitude (Mw). The massive shock waves ripped streets apart, damaged homes and destroyed buildings in town. Two docks in town were completely destroyed. $15 million dollars in damage was reported.
The most distinctive phenomenon in Port Valdez caused by this earthquake was a massive submarine slide involving approximately 98 million cubic yards of soil at the face of the Valdez Glacier Stream / Lowe River outwash delta. The slide destroyed the harbor facilities and many near‐shore facilities. Several people were killed by the collapse of the docks and the incoming sea waves generated by the slide. The loss of material at the face of the outwash delta also contributed to a seaward ground stretching and subsidence of part of the shore area to an elevation below high tide level.
Alaskan Hotel at Old Town Valdez, March 27, 1964
Several subordinate phenomena were imitated by the massive slide at the face of the delta outwash. A wave with a reported height of 40 feet was generated within Port Valdez. The wave
78 traversed the length of the embankment several times at the approximate first mode period of the “basin.” The run up of these waves caused further damage in Valdez beyond that associated with ground shaking. Subsidence, and ground cracking, and stretching linked to mass soil loss at the face of the delta also contributed heavily to the destruction within the city. Utilities (“life lines”) were hard hit by this form of ground failure.
The true cause of the submarine slide, which contributed so heavily to the destruction of old Valdez; and which precipitated ground failure and general seaward progression of the landmass immediate to the pre‐quake shoreline, is not precisely known. However, both liquefaction of sand layers and lenses, and failure of sensitive fine grain soil (silt, clay) could have produced similar effects as those that were reported to have occurred. According to aerial photo interpretation and published results of ground reconnaissance performed by members of the USGS soon after the 1964 earthquake, most of the surface distress was generally limited to an area within 5,000 feet of the pre‐quake shoreline. The exception to these limits was the area southwest of Knife Ridge along the dike (Dike Road) south of Valdez Glacier Stream. In that area, ground cracking and evidence of liquefaction were noted as far as 8,000 feet inland from the pre‐quake shoreline.
Surface features accompanying some of the fissures and cracks on the outwash delta were indicative of liquefaction at depth. Sand and occasional gravel particles were ejected as far as 100 feet along extensive fissures. Graben‐like depressions between fissures were also noted in areas of no reported ground stretching, indicating that the loss of ejected material at depth resulted in localized surface depressions of up to 12 inches deep. Test borings made by the Alaska Highway Department indicated that the soil fabric in the affected areas was generally coarser than that which is usually considered to be sensitive to liquefaction. The fact that the ground surface was frozen, and therefore, impermeable when the earthquake struck may have been the important contributing factor which made the critical difference and allowed a relatively permeable soil to “liquefy.” It is, of course, also recognized that the 1964 seismic event was unique in its own right. That is, it was extremely violent and of unusually long duration (four to six minutes). All of these unusual factors may have combined under just the right circumstances to cause the reported ground failures in and about old Valdez.
The Valdez that exists today is a town rebuilt four miles west of the original Old Town. Valdez now is located near the mouth of Mineral Creek. Geologists recommended the Mineral Creek site because it sits on bedrock rather than on silty, water‐drenched soil. Fifty‐two buildings were moved and the other structures were burned and the ground razed.
The geologic instability of Old Town, which was constructed in the flood plain of Valdez Glacier, was noticed in 1899 by Edward Gillette. Gillette was an engineer working with Capt. W.R. Abercrombie. "Where the small town of Valdez has been hastily built, there is danger at any time of having the buildings swept into the Bay by swift and quickly changing channels formed by the numerous streams flowing from uncertain and ever‐changing parts of the Valdez Glacier situated some four miles north of town," Gillette wrote. 79 The drainage of Valdez Glacier not only put the town at flood risk, the water‐saturated silt, fine sand, and gravel created an unstable foundation that proved disastrous when the big earthquake hit.
Saturated, fine‐grain soils often feel as solid as concrete until violently shaken. In a process called liquefaction, solid ground suddenly acts as a liquid when earthquake movement alters the delicate structure of fine‐grained soils that are buttressed by water. Liquefaction of the underlying soil of the Old Valdez waterfront caused an underwater landslide. The rapid sloughing of 97 million cubic yards of soils under the ocean surface caused a giant wave. The wave, estimated to be at least 30 feet high, slammed into the Valdez waterfront. As the wave bounced off the other side of the bay, Old Town was pummeled repeatedly. According to a plaque now standing on the Post Office foundation at the Old Town site, 32 people died as a result of the underwater landslide and resulting waves.
It took from two to four years for the new Valdez to become home for Valdez residents. Approximately 52 buildings were moved from the old Valdez to the new town site. Homeowners paid a fee of $400 for lots because the Corps of Engineers, along with Urban Renewal funds, replaced public facilities. For its efforts in rebuilding the new Valdez, the City was voted an All‐America City in 1965.
Figure 16 shows major historical earthquakes in Alaska with magnitudes of 6.0 or higher. Figure 16—Epicenters of Historic Earthquakes in Alaska with Magnitudes of 6.0 or Higher
80 C. Location, Extent, Impact, and Probability of Future Events Location Earthquake damage would be area‐wide with potential damage to critical infrastructure up to and including the complete abandonment of key facilities. Priority would be given to critical infrastructure to include: public safety facilities, health care facilities, shelters and potential shelters, and finally public utilities.
There are eleven major active fault systems within 150 miles of Port Valdez that are capable of producing earthquakes strong enough to affect Valdez. The dominant earthquake source is the plate boundary that underlies the region around Valdez at a depth of approximately 12 kilometers. Table 23 shows the active fault system within the Valdez area. Table 23—Major Active Fault Systems Nearest Approach Maximum Probable Fault System Fault Length (mi) To Site (mi) Magnitude (M) Denali 1,600 150 8.5 Castle Mountain 350 90 8.0 Knik 135 90 7.5 Aleutian Megathrust 1,800 25 8.6 Patton Bay & Hanning Bay 60 90 7.4 Chugach – St. Elias 200 80 8.3 Ragged Mountain 20 80 6.9 Galena Bay 22 18 6.9 Jack Bay 32 14 7.1 Whalen Bay 12 22 6.6 Fairweather 650 150 8.5 Source: Denise Schanbeck (formerly with the Valdez Fire Department) compiled the table information from the 1992 Coastal Management Plan, Alaska Department of Natural Resources Public Data File 87029, and the Mineral Creek Site Investigation Report of 1982.
Extent The extent of damage is dependent on the magnitude of the quake, the geology of the area, distance from the epicenter, and structure design and construction. A main goal of an earthquake hazard reduction program is to preserve lives through economical rehabilitation of existing structures and construct safe new structures. Ground acceleration caused by earthquakes has the potential to destroy buildings and infrastructure and cause loss of life or serious injury. Aftershocks are typically smaller than the main shock, and can continue over a period of weeks, months, or years after the initial earthquake is felt.
Since 1957, there have been 44 earthquakes greater than 5.0 M within 100 miles of Valdez. Table 24 shows all 6.0 Magnitude earthquakes since 1957 within 100 miles of Valdez.
81 Table 24— All 6.0 Magnitude Earthquakes within 100 Miles of Valdez since 1957 Date Time (Zulu) Latitude Longitude Depth MAG 28‐Mar‐64 3:36 AM 60.908 ‐147.339 25 9.2 28‐Mar‐64 2:47 PM 60.206 ‐146.767 12.5 6.4 28‐Mar‐64 2:49 PM 60.201 ‐146.842 12.5 6.3 30‐Mar‐64 7:09 AM 59.758 ‐145.854 10 6.4 4‐Apr‐64 4:54 AM 59.92 ‐146.813 20 6 18‐Aug‐70 5:52 PM 60.538 ‐145.537 25 6 12‐Jul‐83 3:10 PM 61.031 ‐147.286 37 6.6 7‐Sep‐83 7:22 PM 60.976 ‐147.5 45 6.4 Source: USGS, 2017
Based on past events and the criteria identified in Table 13 (Extent of Hazard Ranking), the magnitude and severity of erosion impacts in the City are considered critical in that injuries that result from the hazard could result in permanent disability, with the potential for critical facilities to be shut down for at least two weeks, and more than 25% of property or critical infrastructure being severely damaged.
Impact In preparation for the Alaska Shield Exercise in March of 2014, the USGS created scenario “shake maps” for Valdez depicting the severity of an earthquake at a magnitude of 6.4 and 7.5. Those maps follow.
Probability PGA measures the rate of change in motion of the earth’s surface and expresses it as a percent of the established rate of acceleration due to gravity (9.8 m/sec2). Seismic hazard maps, or PGA maps, project the likelihood of an earthquake at a certain location over a given period. SA is approximately what is experienced by a building during an earthquake, as modeled by a particle mass on a mass‐less vertical rod having the same natural period of vibration as the building.
82 Using the USGS map shown below, Valdez has a 2% probability of a ground exploration of 0.40 to 0.60 g occurring in 50 years.
Based on the Planning Team’s statements concerning previous occurrences and the criteria identified in Table 14 (Probability Criteria), it is likely that an earthquake will occur within the next three years, has up to 1 in 3 year’s chance of occurring (1/3=33%), and history of events is greater than 20% likely but less than or equal to 33% likely per year.
83 Figure 17—Valdez Earthquake Probability (USGS 2017)
D. Vulnerability Assessment Based on earthquake probability (PGA) maps produced by the USGS, the new City area is at risk of experiencing earthquake impacts as this is a risk common to Alaska. The IBC and the IRC place Valdez in Seismic Zone D. This requires residential and commercial construction to meet specific standards for earthquake protection of structures. The community was relocated to the present town site after the 1964 earthquake. Impacts to the community such as significant ground movement that may result in infrastructure damage are unlikely. Although all structures are exposed to earthquakes, buildings within the City constructed with wood have slightly less vulnerability to the effects of earthquakes than those with masonry. Impacts to future populations, residences, critical facilities, and infrastructure are anticipated at the same impact level as the City currently experiences.
84 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION III RISK ASSESSMENT
FLOOD & EROSION
85 3.4 Floods Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska 3.4.1 Hazard Profile
A. Hazard Description Flood hazards in Valdez are created by storm surges, voluminous rainfall, snow and glacier melt, and release of glacier‐dammed lakes.
Storm Surge Flooding Storm surges are relatively long‐term, local increases in water level resulting from offshore storms. The highest damage occurs when such a surge coincides with a maximum tide. Estimated combined storm surge and tide elevation in Port Valdez with a 100‐year recurrence interval is 10.6 feet above sea level. Such flooding can occur along the entire Port Valdez shoreline. Because most of the Port Valdez coast is steep mountainside, the area affected by the hazard is generally small. The relatively flat land of the river deltas has the greatest storm surge flooding.
Rainfall, Snowmelt, Glacier Melt Flooding Floods occur in rivers as a result of a large input of water to the drainage basin in the form of rainfall, snowmelt, glacier melt, or a combination of these inputs. In the Valdez area, as well as most coastal areas of Southcentral and Southeast Alaska, the floods due to snowmelt are typically lower in magnitude than those due to rainstorms in late summer or fall. Glacier melt is typically largest in late summer, increasing the potential magnitude of late summer rainfall floods in glacial streams.
Flood and Erosion Hazards Deposition Deposition is the accumulation of soil, silt, and other particles on a river bottom or delta. Deposition leads to the destruction of fish habitat and presents a challenge for navigational purposes. Deposition also reduces channel capacity, resulting in increased flooding or bank erosion.
Erosion Erosion is a process that involves the wearing away, transportation, and movement of land. Erosion rates can vary significantly as erosion can occur quite quickly as the result of a flash flood, coastal storm or other event. It can also occur slowly as the result of long‐term environmental changes. Erosion is a natural process but its effects can be exacerbated by human activity.
Stream bank erosion involves the removal of material from the stream bank. When bank erosion is excessive, it becomes a concern because it results in loss of streamside vegetation, loss of fish habitat, and loss of land and property. This also can cause undermining of bridge supports.
Contaminated Water Floodwaters pose a health hazard by picking up contaminants and disease as they travel. Outhouses (although rare in Valdez), sewers, septic tanks, and dog yards are all potential sources of disease transported by floodwaters. Individual wells in Valdez could be contaminated during flood events. The private well systems must be tested and disinfected after a flood. Lack of a water source is a
86 significant concern for flood victims, especially if the flood has been extensive enough to contaminate the public water supply. In such a case, outside bottled water is at times the only source of clean water.
The primary factors that affect the magnitude of riverine flooding include the size of the drainage basin contributing flow to the river; the amount and distribution of the precipitation that falls on the basin; the size and location of lakes, wetlands, or other water storage basins within the drainage basin; and the size and location of glaciers within the drainage basin. Frequent river flooding should be expected in the unvegetated flood plains of all the rivers in the area. Less frequent flooding occurs in overbank areas adjacent to the rivers. Glacier‐damned lake release can cause significant flooding and form when a stream is blocked by a glacier. Flooding occurs when lake water develops an escape route through, under, or over the glacier dam. The escape route enlarges, allowing the lake to drain rapidly.
Little is known about factors affecting flooding from glacier‐dammed lakes. Some potential factors include the mechanism by which the lake releases, the volume of water in the lake, and the route through which the lake water travels before reaching the area subject to flooding. The frequency of glacier‐dammed lake releases is likely related to the time necessary for the lake to fill and for a drainage channel to become blocked, and the position and movement of the damming glacier.
Estimates of flood discharges resulting from glacier‐dammed releases combined with potential concurrent rainstorm floods in the basins of Valdez Glacier Stream and Lowe River are 46,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) and 59,900 cfs, respectively.
The City of Valdez participates in the NFIP. The function of the NFIP is to provide flood insurance to homes and businesses located in floodplains at a reasonable cost. In trade, the City of Valdez regulates new development and substantial improvement to existing structures in the floodplain. The program is based upon mapping areas of flood risk and requiring local implementation to reduce flood damage primarily through requiring the elevation of structures above the base (100‐year) flood elevations. Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) Zones are explained Table 25. Table 25—FIRM Zones Firm Explanation Zone A Areas of 100‐year flood; base flood elevations and flood hazard not determined.
AO Areas of 100‐year shallow flooding where depths are between one (1) and three (3) feet, average depths of inundation are shown but no flood hazard factors are determined. AH Areas of 100‐year shallow flooding where depths are between one (1) and three (3) feet; base flood elevations are shown but no flood hazard factors are determined. A1‐A30 Areas of 100‐year flood; base flood elevations and flood hazard factors determined.
87 B Areas between limits of the 100‐year flood and 500‐year flood; or certain areas subject to 100‐year flooding with average depths less than one (1) foot or where the contributing drainage area is less than one square mile; or areas protected by levees from the base flood. C Areas of minimal flooding. D Areas of undetermined, but possible, flood hazards.
Flood hazard high velocity zones (zones with an A in the table above) in the community encompass only a few areas within the Valdez city limits. These areas are Alpine Woods, two lots in Robe River, and some undeveloped land.
In 1984, Woodward‐Clyde Consultants prepared ALPINE WOODS ESTATES DETAILED FLOOD EVALUATION for the City of Valdez. The report made the following finding.
Flooding of the Alpine Woods Estates is primarily a function of flood discharge, channel shifting, and logjams. When the main channel of the Lowe River is near the subdivision, flooding may occur in the subdivision at relatively low discharges. For example, the May 1983 flow of 3200 cfs was sufficient to cause localized flooding. However, the 1982 flood flow of 15,000 cfs was less than one‐third of the 1981 peak flows of 49,000 cfs. No flooding was observed in the 1981 flood because the main channel was on the far side of the floodplain. Should the main river channels shift and remain on the far side of the floodplain, the subdivision could be trouble‐free for many years. Such changes are, unfortunately, impossible to predict.
The 1989 Evaluation of Stream Stability in the Valdez, Alaska Area was prepared by GEOMAX, P.C. for the City of Valdez and detailed the flood potentials of Lowe River, Valdez Glacier Creek, and Mineral Creek. Brief excerpts from that report, edited only for ease of reading, follow.
It was observed that Lowe River was almost universally pulled to areas where riprap or rock structures had been placed in the floodplain. This was first observed where the bank had been riprapped upstream from the small secondary road crossing. From there, the river moves across the floodplain to a riprapped section of the Alaska pipeline. The channel then is drawn back across the floodplain to the rock structures, which have been placed in front of the Alpine Woods Subdivision. Next the stream continues northwesterly until it reaches the riprapped section of the highway. Downstream from this location, the channel seems to generally follow its old path until it reaches the bridge crossing for the highway, which connects Valdez with the oil terminal. The channel is drawn to riprap or jetties on both Glacier Creek and Mineral Creek in a similar fashion.
The following specific site descriptions for Lowe River will begin at the mouth of Keystone Canyon and continue downstream. The river develops very high velocity as its flows through Keystone Canyon. Because of the steep gradient, the river displays an erosive pattern. As soon as the river leaves the canyon, however, the grade flattens abruptly, and the pattern immediately changes to a braided condition after it flows underneath the secondary road bridge. Extreme scouring has occurred along the riprap and threatens to cause damage to both the riprap and the downstream bridge. A possible solution would be the use of barbs in this area to keep the stream from attacking 88 the riprap and bridge abutments. This treatment also would be desirable along the riprap projects along the Alaska pipeline.
Valdez Glacier Stream in the vicinity of the Richardson Highway Bridge has serious instability problems. There is a large dike extending northeasterly along a secondary road which joins the highway. The stream has been pulled to the road by turbulence along the riprap. The stream then makes a perpendicular bend paralleling the highway before it passes underneath the Richardson Highway Bridge. This portion or stream has numerous places where the riprap has already been damaged by toe scour. The stream is folded in on the bridge and makes an extreme right‐angle entry under the bridge, which has caused a gravel bar to form along the inside of the bend. This deposition seriously reduces the capacity of the already undersized bridge opening. Higher velocities and turbulences develop on the outside or the bend as a result. Loss of bridge capacity is critical because Glacier Creek is subject to periodic surge release flooding. Measures should be taken to maintain adequate bridge capacity so that the highway will not be jeopardized. Again, the use of bank barbs might be the most cost‐effective method of reestablishing a more typical braided flow through this reach, thereby improving the bridge entry.
Mineral Creek entering into Valdez harbor has produced a typical fan‐delta with one modification. There is a significant bedrock outcrop, which lies off the mouth of Mineral Creek in the bay. The fan delta has entirely filled the area between the mouth of the Mineral Creek Canyon and this bedrock outcrop. The new Valdez townsite lies between the bedrock outcrop and the mouth of Mineral Creek on a portion of the fan delta. Before development occurred, Mineral Creek moved laterally, filling the area on both sides of the bedrock outcrop. A diking system was installed which keeps Mineral Creek confined to the northwestern part or the fan‐delta. There was a bridge crossing Mineral Creek near the mouth or the canyon, but a new, larger bridge was built well out on the fan delta. This bridge allows access to the western half of the fan delta. It is clear that strong developmental pressures are occurring which could result in more construction of houses and increased density in this area. Table 26 provides the land use types located in the High Velocity Flood Zones. Table 26—Land Use Types Located in the High Velocity Flood Zones Land Use Type Number of Uses Residential < 50 homes Commercial < 10 commercial business Public 0 public structures, some utilities Source: Valdez CED Department
89 Table 27 compares the Valdez community NFIP with state figures. Table 27—NFIP Statistics Total # of NFIP Emergency Program Date Regular Program Map Revision CRS Rating Current Community Identified Entry Date Date Number Policies Number (09/30/17) 12/1/1983; new maps will be 5/12/1975 9/3/1980 020094 8 36 available in 2019
AK Total Loss Total Total Loss Dollars Average AK State # of AK State Total Dollars Premiums Paid Value of Loss Current Policies Premiums Paid $40,643 $336,500.67 $11,603 2,499 $2.2 million $3.4 million AK State Average Repetitive Dates of Rep. Total Average Valdez Average Premium Premium Loss Claims Losses Rep. Loss Rep. Loss 1994 1 property $1,129 $893 1986 $34,859 $11,620 – 3 losses 1981
Valdez Kate Huber Floodplain P.O. Box 307 Coordinator Valdez, AK 99686 Email: [email protected]
State of AK Jimmy C. Smith, Floodplain Management Program Coordinator Department of Floodplain Commerce, Community & Economic Development Division of Community Coordinator Advocacy 550 W. 7th Avenue, Suite 1640 Anchorage, AK 99501 (907) 269‐4132 (907) 269‐4539 (fax) Website: http://www.commerce.alaska.gov/web/dcra/localgovernmentonline/planningla nduse/floodplainmanagement.aspx
90 B. Previous Occurrences September 1995. Flooding in the Valdez area was included in a State (AK‐1072‐DR) and FEMA declared (DR‐1072) disaster. There was severe damage up and down the Richardson Highway. Many of the City of Valdez flood control dikes and levees were threatened. Statewide restitution for this flooding disaster totaled $10.2 million.
December 1999. A coastal storm caused extensive damage throughout the state. This was declared a disaster by State and FEMA (DR‐1316). Statewide communities received $15.66 million in funds to repair after this disaster.
October 2006. Record rainfall, mudslides and snowmelt caused waters to overtop the Richardson Highway through Keystone Canyon and beach the 12‐mile Levee. The Levee breach caused flooding of residences in the Alpine Woods area of the City of Valdez. 4.6 inches of rain fell in a single day, breaking the City's 24‐hour record. Spots along the closed section of highway ‐‐ from 12 miles northwest of Valdez to MP 79 ‐‐ recorded even greater accumulations.
Table 28 contains NOAA 2017 recorded events. Table 28—NOAA Recorded Events EVENT DAY YEAR MONTH CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE TYPE A glacier dammed lake on the eastern margin of the Valdez Glacier released sometime around midnight on August 15th. Water rose approximately two feet in the eastern channel of the Valdez River. There were some Flash 14 2001 August 131 indications that the higher than normal flow moved into Flood an old channel or breached a dike, causing concern to several residents who lived along that reach of the river. A bike path was inundated; however, there were no other reports of flooding or damage. Flooding along the Richardson Highway resulted in road 9 2006 October Flood 131 wash outs through Keystone Canyon. Flood waters from the Lowe River closed the Richardson 21 2012 September Flood 131 Highway east of Valdez from MP 12 to MP 16.
C. Location, Extent, Impact, and Probability of Future Events Location Riverine and glacier‐dammed outburst flooding have historically occurred on Valdez Glacier Stream, Lowe River, and Mineral Creek. All activities within the floodway and floodway fringe are subject to the Valdez Flood Plain Management Ordinance. Gravel extraction within the floodway and floodway fringe, if conducted improperly, could cause the Valdez Glacier Stream to seek a new channel. Downstream damage from such an occurrence could be substantial.
The main riverine flows in the developed and developable areas of Valdez come from three sources: Valdez Glacier Stream, Mineral Creek, and Lowe River. In addition, development has occurred adjacent to Robe River and Corbin and Slater Creeks.
Currently, several studies are underway and will be beneficial to the flooding/erosion profile section for the 2023 HMP Update. These studies include:
1. RiskMap Report for the City of Valdez. by FEMA, RiskMap, and Resilience Action Partners. Currently, in progress by FEMA, RiskMap, and Resilience Action Partners. The scope of work of the City of Valdez Risk MAP Study includes: A detailed coastal flood hazard analysis including the collection of storm surge (coastal hydrology) and overland wave height analysis (coastal hydraulics), as well as floodplain boundaries for 1‐percent and 0.2‐percent‐annual‐chance (100‐ and 500‐year) flood events. A draft map will be developed for the coastal analysis. A riverine analysis will also be performed to include: o hydrology and hydraulic modeling for 3.8 miles of detailed riverine study on Mineral Creek; o 11.7 miles of detailed riverine study on Lowe River; o 4.6 miles of detailed riverine study on Valdez Glacier Stream; o 2.2 miles of detailed riverine study on Robe River; and o 18.7 miles of approximate riverine modeling on various streams. A draft map will be developed for the riverine analysis. Floodplain delineations and the FIS will be updated for the entire City. The 90‐day appeal period for the Preliminary FIRMs and FIS ended February 27, 2018. FEMA expects to issue a Letter of Final Determination in July 2018 approximately. The FIRMs and FIS will become effective around November 2018 ‐ February 2019. 2. Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard Map. Currently, in progress by DGGS; Executive Summary in progress, awaiting written statement of support from City of Valdez (DGGS has verbal support and have been working with the City for several years on avalanche and outburst flood hazards, but several key individuals have left employment with City of Valdez and the new employees are adapting to the changes. 3. In February 2017, the City Council granted approval to enter into a Feasibility Cost Sharing Agreement with the USACE for a Section 22 PAS Study. The City Council provided approval of the written request to the USACE to initiate a PAS of eligibility of a Lowe River 10‐Mile Area Project for a Continuing Authorities Program, Section 205, Small Flood Damage Reduction Project. It has taken the USACE additional time to work through the new guidance for providing technical assistance. They are now at a point where they are ready to execute signing for the PAS for technical assistance on Valdez Glacier Stream and Mineral Creek although the Lowe River is not included in this study. 4. The USACE recommended adding Valdez on the National Level for a Cap 205 project. The project area would be a stretch of the Lowe River in the vicinity of the Alpine Woods and Nordic Village subdivisions, and the project will most likely involve design and construction of a levy system incorporating existing structures with new structures to reduce the risk of flooding of lowly areas in the subdivisions.
92 Extent The City of Valdez is exposed to the hazard of combined storm surge/high tide flooding due to winter storms in the Gulf of Alaska. Factors affecting storm surges include coastline topography and climatologically characteristics, such as atmospheric pressure, speed and direction of the storm center relative to the coastline, and the stage of frontal development. Storm surges at Valdez may be affected by local conditions such as the dissipative effect of flow through Valdez Narrows or the potential effects of local winds amplifying or damping the water level of the storm surge.
Estimated combined storm surge and tide elevation in Port Valdez with a 100‐year recurrence interval is 10.6 feet above sea level. Such flooding can occur along the entire Port Valdez shoreline. Because of the steep terrain, the area affected by the hazard is generally small. The relatively flat land of the river deltas allows for greater flooding.
Based on past events and the criteria identified in Table 13 (Extent of Hazard Ranking), the magnitude and severity of flooding/erosion to the City are considered limited with injuries and/or illnesses not resulting in permanent disability, complete shutdown of critical facilities for a week, and more than 10% of property is severely damaged.
Impact Flooding events, even for those properties unaffected directly, will suffer due to road closures, impacts to public safety (access and response capabilities), limited availability of perishable commodities, and isolation.
Probability Based on the Planning Team’s statements concerning previous occurrences and the criteria identified in Table 14 (Probability Criteria), it is likely that a flood/erosion event will occur within the next three years. An event has up to 1 in 3 year’s chance of occurring (1/3=33%), and a history of events is greater than 20% but less than or equal to 33% likely per year.
D. Vulnerability Assessment While Alpine Woods Subdivision, and Cottonwood and Homestead Subdivisions located on Mineral Creek are the only areas in Valdez located within the high velocity flood zone, Valdez is located on the water, and, therefore, the Port and Harbor facilities and areas near the shore are always vulnerable to flooding/erosion. Impacts to future populations, residences, critical facilities, and infrastructure are anticipated at the same impact level. Chapter 15.30 of the Valdez Municipal Code (Flood Hazard Protection Regulations) has been in place since the year 2000. The State Floodplain Coordinator has advised the City the code needs to be revised to maintain compliance with updated federal flood regulations. The revision is in process with a completion scheduled for 2018.
93 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION III RISK ASSESSMENT
LANDSLIDE
94 3.5 Landslide Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska 3.5.1 Hazard Profile
A. Hazard Description A landslide is a natural event that causes damage when human activities interface with slide areas. Landslides occur naturally when inherent weaknesses in the rock or soil combine with one or more triggering events such as heavy rain, snowmelt, changes in groundwater level, and seismic or volcanic activity, or erosion. Human activities such as road construction, excavation, and mining can also cause landslides.
Landslides are a potential hazard in Valdez because of the climate, topography, and the presence of other hazards such as earthquakes that might increase the likelihood of a landslide.
B. Previous Occurrences There is no record of previous occurrences on the 2016 State’s Disaster Cost Index.
C. Location, Extent, Impact, and Probability of Future Events Location Currently, a study is underway and will be beneficial to updating this landslide profile section for the 2023 HMP Update. This study includes a Landslide Hazard Assessment; Avalanche Hazard Map; Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard Map and is currently in progress by DGGS.
Extent There have been no past events per the 2016 State’s Disaster Cost Index. Based on the criteria identified in Table 13 (Extent of Hazard Ranking), the magnitude and severity of landslides to the City are considered limited with injuries and/or illnesses not resulting in permanent disability, complete shutdown of critical facilities for a week, and more than 10% of property is severely damaged.
Impact Landslide events, even for those properties unaffected directly, will suffer due to road closures, impacts to public safety (access and response capabilities), limited availability of perishable commodities, and isolation.
Probability Based on the Planning Team’s statements concerning previous occurrences and the criteria identified in Table 14 (Probability Criteria), it is possible that a landslide event will occur within the next five years. An event has up to 1 in 5 year’s chance of occurring (1/5=20%), and a history of events is greater than 10% but less than or equal to 20% likely per year.
D. Vulnerability Assessment Impacts to future populations, residences, critical facilities, and infrastructure are anticipated at the same impact level. 95 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION III RISK ASSESSMENT
SEVERE WEATHER
96 3.6 Severe Weather Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska 3.6.1 Hazard Profile
A. Hazard Description Severe weather in Alaska is more likely to be blizzards and wind chill temperatures far below zero. Valdez is particularly susceptible to heavy snows, blizzards, periods of extreme cold, ice storms, and high winds. Quick snow thaws and summer rain storms that bring inches of rain in several hours occur and often cause flooding, but this is addressed in the flooding section of the HMP.
Winter Storm Heavy snow can accumulate as fast as 72 inches in 24 hours in Valdez. Winds and snow can combine to create white out, blizzard conditions in small pockets or across the entire Port of Valdez. Rain on top of snow or ice can create extremely icy, wet conditions. These kinds of storms can occur weekly throughout the winter in Valdez. Residents and City staff are used to this weather and can handle a good deal of snow, wind and ice on their own. It is only when one of these conditions becomes abnormally extreme that hazard mitigation planning for severe weather is important.
Heavy snow: More than three feet in 24 hours The City of Valdez does not plow until a snow storm totals at least four inches, and often times if that four inches of snow falls in prime commuting times, the plow trucks will delay until a better time to clear the roads. School buses, resident cars, and commercial vehicles are used to and can easily operate in four to eight inches of accumulated snow on the road.
Extreme cold: Colder than ‐20 degrees (including wind chill) Extreme cold events are uncommon in Valdez because the ocean keeps the temperature pretty stable in the winter. However, when arctic air from the north comes down and winds picks up in Valdez, cold air can become quite deadly, especially in Thompson Pass.
Ice Storms: More than 1/8” layer of ice Ice storms result from the accumulation of freezing rain into a thin layer of ice. Freezing rain most commonly occurs in a narrow band within a winter storm that is also producing heavy amounts of snow and sleet in other locations. They can be the most devastating of winter weather phenomena and are often the cause of automobile accidents, power outages, and personal injury.
High Winds Another major weather factor in the community is high winds. The wind chill factor can bring temperatures down to ‐50°F, which can lead to frozen pipes and dangerous conditions for outdoor activities. While most home and business owners are prepared for the heavy winds and low temperatures, construction practices must be followed to protect against the high winds. 97 Tables 29 and 30 show the local Valdez weather station data from 1964 to 2012 for Temperature and Precipitation. Table 29—Valdez Temperature Data from 1964 to 2012
98 Table 30—Valdez Precipitation Data from 1964 to 2012
B. Previous Occurrences Table 31 lists previous Severe Weather occurrences from NOAA 2017. Table 31—NOAA Severe Weather Data DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE A 1008 mb low moved into western Prince William Sound Monday morning. The low then moved to the northeast Gulf of Alaska Tuesday afternoon. A 1040 mb high over the eastern Alaskan Interior resulted in a strong gradient over northern portions Blizzard/High of Prince William Sound. The snow and blowing 13 2001 February 131 Wind snow in Thompson Pass caused the DOT crew to close the Pass due to blizzard conditions. Winds reached warning levels at both Valdez city and the airport beginning around 10 am Tuesday and ending around 5 pm. Winds peaked at 63 mph at 12:55 pm Tuesday at the Valdez Airport.
99 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE Around Valdez, in the northeast Prince William Sound area, both Thompson Pass and the city 25 2001 February Heavy Snow 131 received 22 inches of snow from Sunday afternoon through early Monday. In Valdez, peak winds reached 64 mph at the Valdez airport between 10:15 and 10:35 pm Sunday. Poor 18 2001 March High Wind 131 visibility and winds "northeast 30 gust 52" were reported at 7:55 am Monday from an observer in Thompson Pass. The Valdez Weather Service Office (WSO) reported, at about 6 pm AST Saturday that there were "poor 17 2001 November Blizzard 131 driving conditions and low visibilities in the Pass, with 10" of new snow. Another 8" of snow fell thereafter in the Pass for a total of 18". A strong front approaching the area was preceded by locally strong easterly winds and heavy Winter 20 2001 December 131 precipitation along east and southeast exposures.13 Storm inches of new snow and poor visibilities were observed by the DOT in Thompson Pass. Valdez reported peak east wind 31 mph 1:00 am Winter AST Sat indicating stronger winds in Thompson 22 2001 December 131 Storm Pass. Heavy snow was reported in Thompson Pass (17 inches). A frontal band, associated with complex areas of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, moved into Prince William Sound. Precipitation fell as freezing 29 2002 January Ice Storm 131 rain in both Valdez and along Thompson Pass, as cold air slowly moderated at ground levels. No reports of significant ice accumulation from Valdez WSO. Heavy snow fell in the Thompson Pass area of the zone from early Sunday through Monday afternoon. 22 2002 December Heavy Snow 131 Snowfall totals reached 51 inches during this period. In the Valdez area, gusts at the airport reached an estimated 100+ mph, ripping roofs off several structures and breaking glass in buildings and cars. Overall, at least 14 vehicles around the Valdez airport were damaged. In addition, temperatures 12 2003 March High Wind 131 around zero combined with the strong winds to produce wind chills near 45 below zero. The cold air, driven into buildings by the strong winds, also froze many water pipes...which then burst, adding to the damage estimates.
100 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE Northeast wind gusted to 69 mph shortly after midnight September 18th, a combination of strong low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and high pressure 18 2003 September High Wind 131 over the interior produced the gusty winds. In Valdez, a temporary tent was destroyed and a sign for a local restaurant was also destroyed by the gusty winds. A dissipating low in the North Gulf Coast region resulted a brief period of heavy snow over the community of Valdez. Snow fell at a rate of 2 to 3 20 2003 December Heavy Snow 131 inches per hour for 3 hours with the storm total of 16.1 inches from the morning of the 20th into the afternoon of the 20th. A storm over the south‐central region of Alaska resulted in a continuous onshore flow over northern Prince William Sound overnight through the early evening of December 21st and 22nd. Heavy snow fell over Thompson Pass accumulating 23 inches over 8 hours from midnight to 8 am. Snow then let up and temperatures warmed 22 2003 December Heavy Snow 131 resulting in an additional 5 inches into the evening. Snow was very wet and heavy over Thompson Pass resulting in significant avalanche activity that prompted the Alaska Department of Transportation to close Thompson Pass to traffic so that they could conduct avalanche control activity until the early afternoon of the 22nd. Low pressure in the northern Gulf of Alaska combined with a deep cold air mass and high pressure in the interior resulted in gusty offshore wind along the north gulf coast region. Data is very sparse across this region, however, examination of satellite data in conjunction with limited observation results in a reasonable assessment that 25 2003 December Blizzard 131 blizzard conditions were very likely occurring in the Portage Pass and Portage Valley area as well as across channeled terrain like Thompson Pass near Valdez. Wind reports from Thompson Pass of 30 to 40 mph following over 3 feet of recent snowfall very likely produced blizzard conditions at the top of the pass as well as along the corridor down into the city of Valdez. A storm over southern Cook Inlet and persistent southwest flow into northern Prince William Sound 9 2004 January Heavy Snow 131 resulted in Heavy snow over the Valdez area. Snow fell at a rate of 5 inches per hour for several hours. 101 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE Storm total snow fall was 44 inches for Valdez from Friday evening through Saturday evening. Building high pressure over interior Alaska combined with moderate low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska resulted in the typically strong outflow winds along the Chugach mountains. Winds are 13 2004 January High Wind 131 estimated to have peaked around 80 mph out of the channeled terrain of northern Prince William sound based upon surface observations and satellite interpretation. Valdez Airport measure winds gusts peaking at 70 mph. A 983 MB south of Seward caused strong winds through Thompson Pass gusting to 35 mph as reported by the Alaska DOT at Thompson Pass. Visibility was reduced to near zero at times in 2 2004 April Blizzard 131 white‐out conditions. Snow also fell at an inch per hour during the morning hours. Visibility in Valdez was reduced to 1/4 mile with east winds peaking at 22 mph. No damage was reported. A storm in the Gulf of Alaska and high pressure over interior Alaska resulted in strong outflow winds off mainland Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska beginning Monday afternoon, December 27th. The recent snowfall across the North Gulf Coast was re‐ suspended by the strong wind creating blizzard 28 2004 December Blizzard 131 conditions from just east of the city of Valdez through Keystone Canyon into Thompson Pass. The wind peaked at 94 mph through the pass several times overnight Monday into Tuesday Morning. The blowing snow abated Tuesday and the wind slowly diminished through Tuesday afternoon. Strong high pressure building over northern and eastern Alaska combined with low pressure in the northern Gulf of Alaska resulted in strong gap 20 2005 March High Wind 131 outflow wind in northern Prince William Sound. The north wind peaked at 82 mph at the Valdez Airport at 940 am. A strong low in the Gulf of Alaska combined with high pressure in the eastern interior produced the typical strong gap winds through the Chugach 5 2005 November High Wind 131 Mountains. Wind peaked an estimated 87 mph in the vicinity of the Valdez Airport. Strong wind produced minor damage around Valdez and in the USCG housing area. A low in the northern Gulf of Alaska produced snow 30 2006 January Blizzard 131 and strong gusty northeast wind across northern 102 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE Prince William Sound. White out conditions were frequent along the Richardson Highway Valdez into Thompson pass. Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska combined with strong high pressure over the Canadian Yukon and deep cold air over the eastern interior of Alaska 14 2006 March High Wind 131 resulted in extreme wind channeled through the mountains along the gulf coast of Alaska. The northerly wind peaked at 115 mph in Valdez Tuesday morning. Strong northerly winds through Thompson Pass 8 2007 January Blizzard 131 created a ground blizzard that dropped visibilities to near zero. A moderately strong pressure gradient on the north and west side of the low in Prince William Sound 14 2007 January Blizzard 131 caused gusty winds especially in and below mountain passes. Gusts to 54 mph reduced visibility in Thompson Pass to a quarter mile or less. A strong pressure gradient along the North Gulf 26 2007 February High Wind 131 Coast produced high gap wind in Valdez and out of the mouth of the Copper River. DOT personnel in Thompson Pass reports wind 5 2007 March High Wind 131 gusts to 94 mph. A strong, cold high‐pressure center was positioned over the Interior and strong low pressure was 2 2007 December High Wind 131 centered over the northeastern Gulf of Alaska. Gust to 71 kts (82 mph) recorded on Valdez HANDAR at the Port of Valdez at 0700 AST 2 Dec 07. A storm in the Gulf of Alaska brought snow and wind to Northern Prince William Sound in 4 2007 December Blizzard 131 Thompson Pass to Keystone Canyon and in Portage Valley. Heavy snow fell across the region with 17 inches of snow reported in Thompson Pass. The combination of high pressure in the interior and a low in the northern Gulf of Alaska created a tight pressure gradient over the North Gulf Coast of Alaska. The combined strong pressure gradient and cold air out flow from the interior along with one and a half feet of new snow in the pass resulted in 26 2008 January Blizzard 131 high winds over 100 mph re suspending the snow creating a blizzard in Thompson Pass. Blizzard conditions were created throughout Thompson Pass as winds to 111 mph picked up and drifted snow through the area. Less than 1/4‐mile visibilities and white‐out conditions were reported
103 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE from DOT officials. These conditions persisted through approximately 7pm on the 26th. Strong winds continued to affect the area as late as 11pm but visibilities had improved to greater than 1 mile as early as 7 PM. At 10:30am on the 2nd. A report from a citizen of Valdez that gusty winds at Alpine Woods (MP 10) were being witnessed. The 12‐mile Road Weather Information System (RWIS) was reporting 32 mph gusts and falling snow with poor visibility on the cameras. In Valdez: Reduced visibilities to 1/4 mile 2 2008 February Blizzard 131 were being reported from NWS employees at WSO Valdez as early as 12 PM. In the Pass: Observations started coming in at 6pm with white‐out conditions and strong winds to 92 mph occurring at 5:44 pm on the 2nd of February. These conditions persisted through the night until 6am on the 3rd when the last report from Thompson Pass came in. During the morning of February 7th, the RWIS 6 2008 February High Wind 131 sensor at MP 26, recorded Gusts to 84 mph. Cold Air flowing out of the Copper River Basin was funneled through Thompson Pass. The strong outflow wind combined with snow produced blizzard conditions through the pass. Accompanying the blizzard were very cold temperatures producing 11 2008 February Blizzard 131 dangerous wind chill conditions. Multiple Motorist reported White out conditions while in travel. The ADOT worker in the Pass also reported blizzard conditions in Thompson Pass and at Keystone Canyon. A 970 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska moved north to the Kenai Peninsula. As it moved inland snow fell across the mountains and in Thompson Pass. The front produced strong wind across Valdez into 15 2008 February Blizzard 131 Thompson Pass resulting in a Blizzard. Blizzard conditions also occurred behind this front in the strong west wind and snow over the southern Kenai Peninsula. A Gulf of Alaska storm moved to the north gulf 30 2008 September Blizzard 131 coast producing snow and wind in Thompson Pass that resulted in a blizzard. An intense storm moved into the northern Gulf of Alaska producing high wind and snow in the 8 2008 December Blizzard 131 Chugach Mountains. The combination of high wind and snow resulted in blizzard conditions through
104 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE Thompson Pass.
A weak low in the Gulf of Alaska coupled with a strengthening high in the Copper River Basin produced strong gap wind through the channeled 11 2008 December Blizzard 131 terrain of the Chugach Mountains. The strong gusty wind produced blowing snow due to the re suspension of the freshly fallen snow that resulted in a blizzard in the Thompson Pass area. A strong pressure and temperature gradient along the North Gulf Coast between a strong Arctic high and Gulf of Alaska low produced high wind through 4 2009 January High Wind 131 the gaps in the Chugach Mountains. The peak measured wind was 86 mph through Thompson Pass. Freezing rain created chaos across the south‐central region on the 14th and 15th resulting in many vehicles sliding off the road and numerous roll‐over 18 2009 January Blizzard 131 accidents. The rapid warming combined with heavy rain resulted in localized flooding in the Anchorage area, Valdez and Girdwood. 20 2009 February High Wind 131 Thompson Pass RWIS reported 80 mph gust. The previous night’s snowfall of eleven inches set the stage for this blizzard March 7th. Strong north 6 2009 March Blizzard 131 wind on the 7th re suspended the snow producing blizzard conditions through Thompson Pass on the 7th. Strong high pressure in the interior of Alaska combined with a low in the northern Gulf of Alaska 29 2009 October High Wind 131 produced a strong pressure gradient that resulted in high wind in Valdez. The peak measured gust was 79 mph in Valdez during this event. A storm in the northern Gulf of Alaska produced heavy snow and localized strong wind. Snow fall totaled over 7 feet in Thompson Pass from 15 2009 December Blizzard 131 December 14th through December 16th. Along with the snow gusty wind created blizzard conditions through the pass. A storm in Prince William Sound produced heavy 17 2009 December Blizzard 131 snow and strong wind in Thompson Pass that resulted in a blizzard through the pass. An intense front moved into the North Gulf Coast. 5 2010 February Blizzard 131 This produced strong wind in Cordova and blizzard conditions in Thompson Pass. 105 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE Heavy snow fell in Thompson Pass, 24 inches in 3 2010 November Blizzard 131 about 24 hours, coupled with strong wind produced blizzard conditions through the pass overnight. A strong storm in the Gulf of Alaska coupled with high pressure and cold air in interior Alaska produced strong outflow gap wind through the Blizzard/High Chugach Mountains. Recent snow in the Chugach 15 2010 November 131 Wind Mountains was suspended in the intense north wind through the Thompson Pass. The peak gust for this event was measured at 108 KT at the Thompson Pass RWIS. A strong Gulf of Alaska low combined with a strong cold high over interior Alaska produced intense outflow gap wind along the north gulf coast of 29 2010 November High Wind 131 Alaska. Peak wind gust of 114 mph was measured in Thompson Pass and record high wind gusts of 94 and 97 mph were measured at the Valdez airport during this event. A Gulf of Alaska low moved to Prince William Sound producing snow over the Chugach Mountains along with strong wind. The combination of the wind and 10 2010 December Blizzard 131 snow resulted in blizzard conditions from Keystone Canyon through Thompson Pass December 10th. The Thompson Pass DOT crew reported around 1.5 feet of snow in the pass during this event. A strong storm in the Gulf of Alaska combined with deep cold arctic air and high pressure over interior 14 2010 December High Wind 131 Alaska resulted in strong north gap winds across south central Alaska. Peak wind gust was measured to 91 mph through Thompson Pass. A strong Gulf of Alaska storm coupled with deep cold arctic air over interior Alaska produced strong 22 2010 December High Wind 131 north gap winds through the Chugach Mountains. Peak wind gusts of 94 mph were observed at the Valdez airport during this event. A storm moved into south central Alaska Friday, December 31st that produced strong wind and 31 2010 December Blizzard 131 snow through the Thompson Pass area resulting in a blizzard. A strong Gulf of Alaska storm produced snow followed by strong wind in the northern and 11 2011 February Blizzard 131 western portions of Prince William Sound that resulted in blizzards in Whittier and Thompson Pass.
106 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE A strong storm in the northern Gulf of Alaska produced snow and strong wind through Thompson 19 2011 February Blizzard 131 Pass that resulted in a blizzard through the pass Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Strong low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska combined with intense high pressure over interior Alaska produced winds in excess of 100 mph through the Thompson Pass area. The strong wind re suspended Blizzard/High 26 2011 February 131 snow in the area to produce blizzard conditions. Wind The intense wind in Valdez resulted in closing of the Alyeska Pipeline terminal. Peak wind at the terminal was 95 mph and the peak wind in the Valdez harbor was 87 mph. A low in the Gulf of Alaska combined with strong high pressure over interior Alaska produced strong gap winds through the passes of the Chugach Mountains. The peak wind in the pass was 73 mph. Strong gusty wind around 60 mph blew in Valdez. 2 2011 March High Wind 131 The strong gusty wind in Valdez blew a dumpster down a polished ice street. The wind also blew over a container in the airport that hit a parked helicopter causing $200,000 of damage to the helicopter. The gusty wind also damaged a local sign. Blizzard conditions occurred in the Chugach 7 2011 April Blizzard 131 Mountains through Thompson Pass. An intense low in the northern Gulf of Alaska produced moderate to heavy snow in the Chugach Mountains along with strong outflow gap winds. Blizzard/High The Strong wind and snow resulted in blizzard 1 2011 November 131 Wind conditions through Thompson Pass. The peak wind in the pass was 103 KT measured at the DOT site. Valdez had strong wind peaking around 72 KT in town. A potent low in the northern Gulf of Alaska 8 2011 November Blizzard 131 produced snow and strong gap outflow wind through Thompson Pass resulting in a blizzard. Thompson Pass RWIS reported a peak gust of 117 mph. The peak may have possibly reached 152 mph 15 2011 November High Wind 131 in the pass, although it appears the equipment was having problems from icing. An intense storm in the North Gulf Coast of Alaska produced high wind and blizzard conditions through 15 2011 November Blizzard 131 Thompson pass along with high wind in Valdez through eastern Prince William Sound to the Cordova Area. The peak wind measured in 107 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE Thompson pass was 117 mph.
A storm in the Gulf of Alaska produce gusty west wind and blowing snow resulted in blizzard 22 2011 November Blizzard 131 conditions in the Whittier area. Strong northeast wind with snow resulted in blizzard conditions through Thompson Pass. An intense storm brought high wind to the south‐ central region of Alaska and Prince William Sound. 17 2011 December Blizzard 131 Along with the high wind, snow and blowing snow in Portage Valley and Thompson Pass produced blizzard conditions. A strong storm moved into southwest Alaska bringing snow and strong wind to the Bristol Bay region that spread east as the front moved north and east. The Heavy snow continued to the east 20 2011 December Blizzard 131 and blanketed the Thompson Pass area. High wind in the pass combined with 30 inches of snow resulted in a blizzard through the pass and extreme avalanche threat. A storm over Bristol Bay moved east and brought snow and wind to northern Prince William Sound 20 2011 December Blizzard 131 resulting in a blizzard through Thompson Pass. Twenty‐six inches of snow fell in the pass with strong wind. A strong storm moved into the northern Gulf of Alaska producing wind gusting as high as 146 mph 21 2011 December Blizzard 131 in Thompson pass along with snow resulting in a blizzard. A strong low moved into the northern Gulf of Alaska resulting in snow in the Chugach Mountains 26 2011 December Blizzard 131 and strong wind through Thompson Pass. Blizzard conditions occurred through Thompson Pass during this storm. A strong Gulf of Alaska low coupled with deep cold arctic air and high pressure of the Alaska mainland 30 2012 November High Wind 131 produced the typical strong cold advection outflow gap winds along the coast. Winds peaked at 97 mph in Valdez. A strong pressure gradient along the northern Gulf of Alaska coast resulted in the typical strong gap 18 2012 December High Wind 131 wind through the Chugach Mountains in Valdez. The peak wind reached 92 mph at the Valdez
108 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE airport.
High pressure in the interior of the state and low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska produced strong winds through Thompson Pass near Valdez. Falling and recently fallen snow provided the source of the blowing snow that reached blizzard conditions. Blizzard conditions were expected in Thompson Pass from 1 AM Monday, February 18 through late that evening due to strong winds developing through the pass and recent snowfall providing transportable snow. At 3:40 AM the state DOT plowing the pass reported less than 1/4‐mile visibility in moderate snow and northeast winds sustained at 33 mph and gusting between 40 and 18 2013 February Blizzard 131 55 mph. The report from the DOT camp at 6 AM had light snow with 5 plus miles visibility and Northeast winds 10 gusting 30 mph. Due to the sporadic observations and the fact that conditions can be much better at the DOT camp, the timing of this event is an estimate. Looking at surface maps from this time it appears reasonable that the blizzard peaked from around 1 AM to 5 AM on the 18th, but conditions may have remained much lower through the pass itself well into the day. Blizzard criteria is estimated to have been reached at 4 AM on February 18th. No reports of damage or injuries. There were multiple reports of high winds across the entire Valdez area in this event. The gust recorder at the Valdez airport recorded a gust of 94 12 2013 March High Wind 131 mph at 10:22 PM AKDT on March 12. Wind gusts to 74 mph were reported in the city of Valdez with Thompson Pass reaching 71 mph. The Valdez WSO reported no injuries or damages in the event. A strong pressure gradient between high pressure over the interior of the state and low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska resulted in strong winds through the channeled terrain of Thompson Pass. Recent 12 2013 April Blizzard 131 snowfall in that area created a large amount of transportable snow in the pass which created blizzard conditions on April 12th. Blizzard conditions developed early in the morning on Friday, April 12th and by 4 AM AKDT the DOT reported blizzard
109 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE conditions. Visibility reported by DOT was less than 100 feet from mile 23 to mile 27 of the Richardson Highway. Blizzard conditions persisted through around 5 PM AKDT and then rapidly improved by 6 PM AKDT. The event peak was at 4 AM to 6 AM when there was 100‐mile visibility in blowing snow driven by north winds gusting to 60 MPH. There were no reports of damage or injuries. A typical winter pattern set up with High pressure and cold air inland and a Low‐ pressure center in the northern Gulf of Alaska. The pressure and thermal gradients were sufficient to accelerate winds to warning levels through Thompson pass. Winds were close to warning levels in the City of Valdez. Thompson Pass gusted over 70 mph for 25 2013 April High Wind 131 around three hours the morning of April 25. The peak gust was at 10:43 AM AKDT when a peak wind gust of 77 mph was recorded at the RHYA2 Road Weather Information System sensor run by the DOT. The Valdez airport and Valdez harbor both reported peak wind gusts of 67 mph that morning. There were no reports of damage or injuries. A storm over the northern Gulf of Alaska pushed moisture over the arctic front into the Chugach Mountains. This resulted in over two and a half feet of snow in the mountains. Strong high pressure 11 2013 November Blizzard 131 over interior Alaska produced the typical strong outflow winds through the passes of the coastal mountains. The combination of the snow and wind resulted in a blizzard through Thompson Pass. Blizzard conditions in Thompson Pass to MP 82 21 2013 November Blizzard 131 resulted in the Alaska DOT closing the road during this event. Strong high pressure over interior Alaska combined with low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska resulted in 30 2013 November High Wind 131 the typical strong outflow gap winds through the Chugach Mountains. The peak wind was around 74 mph. Alaska DOT Thompson Pass crew reported blizzard 13 2013 December Blizzard 131 conditions through the region of the Pass.
110 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE At about 2 p.m. AKDT, February 5, CWOP station EW6804 located near the Valdez harbor reported a gust of 96 mph. The Richardson Highway DOT station RHRA2 measured a gust of 96 mph. The 5 2015 February High Wind 131 Sugarloaf Mountain SNOTEL station SUGA2 at an elevation of 550 feet reported a gust of 92 mph.||Meals avenue in Valdez was closed to traffic due to hazardous flying debris. ||Minimal damage to boats and equipment in harbor was reported. At Valdez airport, peak winds reached 75 mph 28 2015 August High Wind 131 between 1356 and 1535 on 28 Aug 2015. No power outages or damage was reported. DoT observer reported Blizzard conditions in 28 2015 December Blizzard 131 Thompson Pass. Thompson Pass DOT reported blizzard conditions at 30 2015 December Blizzard 131 the top of Thompson Pass. Two to three feet of snow had fallen and motorists were stranded. Thompson Pass DOT reported 2 to 3 feet of new snow in the pass with blizzard conditions. Several motorists were stranded. Alaska Dept. of 2 2016 January Blizzard 131 Transportation in Thompson Pass reported near whiteout conditions. Observed winds were 40 mph to 55 mph during this time. A low‐pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska brought a front through the Prince William Sound region. Blizzard conditions were observed in Thompson 8 2016 December Blizzard 131 Pass. Alaska Dept. of Transportation in Thompson Pass reported near whiteout conditions. Observed winds were 40 mph to 55 mph during this time. High pressure over the western mainland and a weak trough over the North Gulf Coast caused channeling through northerly passes, bringing strong gap winds to Prince William Sound. 6 2017 January High Wind 131 Dispatcher reported widespread minor wind damage across Valdez. Multiple light poles have been blown over or damaged...multiple buildings with siding removed and several other structures across town damaged or destroyed. A strong low in the Gulf of Alaska intensified as it moved into the Panhandle. An accompanying trough moved across Prince William Sound from the 2 2017 March High Wind 131 east and brought high winds through Thompson Pass to Valdez. RWIS measured winds to 93 mph. Numerous windows were blown out in town.
111 DAY YEAR MONTH EVENT TYPE CZ_FIPS EPISODE_NARRATIVE A high over the Bering Sea retrograded to the west and ushered in low pressure from the east. This produced a tightened gradient over the Prince 5 2017 March High Wind 131 William Sound. A transiting trough generated high winds through Valdez. RWIS reported a gust to 82 mph at 10:20 p.m. A winter storm produced more than 40 inches of snow on Thompson Pass and triggered an avalanche 6 2017 December Snow 131 that shut down the highway. In just 90 minutes, 15 inches of snow had fallen. The Richardson Highway was closed from MP 12‐42.
C. Location, Extent, Impact, and Probability of Future Events Location Under certain conditions, all areas within the City are considered to be vulnerable to severe weather.
Extent Based on past severe weather events and the criteria identified in Table 13 (Extent of Hazard Ranking), the magnitude and severity of severe weather to the City are considered critical with injuries and/or illnesses resulting in permanent disability, complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two weeks, and more than 25% of property is severely damaged.
Impact Heavy snowfall can lead to isolation in the winter. If enough snow falls to impact or close down the Airport and the Richardson Highway, the flow of food and supplies as well as emergency and medical services is disrupted. Accumulations of snow can cause roofs to collapse and knock down trees and power lines. Heavy snow can also damage light aircraft and sink small boats. A quick thaw after a heavy snow can cause substantial flooding. The cost of snow removal, repairing damages, and the loss of business can have severe economic impacts on cities and towns. Injuries and deaths related to heavy snow usually occur as a result of vehicle accidents. Casualties also occur due to overexertion while shoveling snow and hypothermia caused by overexposure to the cold weather.
Extreme cold interferes with a community’s infrastructure. It causes fuel to congeal in storage tanks and supply lines, stopping electric generation. Without electricity, heaters do not work, causing water and sewer pipes to freeze or rupture. If extreme cold conditions are combined with low or no snow cover, the ground’s frost depth can increase, disturbing buried pipes.
The greatest danger from extreme cold is its effect on people. Prolonged exposure to the cold can cause frostbite or hypothermia and become life‐threatening. Infants and elderly people are most susceptible. The risk of hypothermia due to exposure greatly increases during episodes of 112 extreme cold, and carbon monoxide poisoning is possible as people use supplemental heating devices.
Freezing rain is often the cause of automobile accidents, power outages, and personal injury.
The wind chill factor can bring temperatures down to ‐50°F, which can lead to frozen pipes and dangerous conditions for outdoor activities.
Probability Based on the Planning Team’s statements concerning previous occurrences and the criteria identified in Table 14 (Probability Criteria), it is highly likely that severe weather will occur within the calendar year, event has up to 1 in 1 year’s chance of occurring (1/1=100%), and the history of events is greater than 33% likely per year.
D. Vulnerability Assessment
The entire community is obviously vulnerable to severe weather. The citizens of Valdez are vulnerable to bitter cold weather, heavy snowfall and high winds. Valdez is known in Alaska for its self‐efficiency and hardy behavior in the face of often inclement weather. Citizens must be able to survive without outside assistance several times throughout most winters. Impacts to future populations, residences, critical facilities, and infrastructure are anticipated at the same impact level.
113 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION III RISK ASSESSMENT
TSUNAMI
114 3.7 Tsunami/Seiche Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska 3.7.1 Hazard Profile
A. Hazard Description The City of Valdez developed the following Tsunami/Seiche Mitigation Plan in March 2005, which was reviewed and approved by the State of Alaska DHS&EM. Then employee, Denise Schanbeck of the Valdez Fire Department wrote the plan. It is included here in its entirety.
A tsunami is a series of ocean waves generated by any rapid large‐scale disturbance of the seawater. These waves can travel at speeds of up to 600 mph in the open ocean. Most tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, but they may also be caused by volcanic eruptions, landslides (above or under sea in origin), undersea slumps, or meteor impacts.
Tsunami damage is a direct result of three factors: 1. Inundation (the extent to which the water covers the land); 2. Wave action that will impact structures and moving objects that become projectiles; and 3. Coastal erosion.
Tsunamis are categorized in one of two ways: • Distant‐source tsunamis; and • Locally generated tsunamis.
This distinction is made based on the time it takes the tsunami to leave the source disturbance and reach land.
A distant‐source tsunami (Tele‐tsunami) is the term for a tsunami observed at places 600 miles, or more, from the source of origin. Distant tsunamis are more likely to occur in the Pacific Ocean and are capable of traveling across the entire ocean in less than one day. Since distant‐ source tsunamis make such long trips with a relatively constant speed, experts can predict their arrival with a fair degree of accuracy. This allows time for warnings and evacuation.
A locally‐generated tsunami is a term for a tsunami that is generated near the coast, thus the first waves may reach the shore within minutes of the event. This gives little or no time for warning or evacuation.
A seiche is a wave that oscillates in partially or totally enclosed bodies of water. They can last from a few minutes to a few hours as a result of an earthquake, underwater landslide, atmospheric disturbance or avalanche. The resulting effect is similar to bathtub water sloshing repeatedly from side to side. The reverberating water continually causes damage until the activity subsides. The factors for effective warning are similar to a local tsunami, in that the onset of the first wave can be a few minutes, giving virtually no time for warning.
115 B. Previous Occurrences September 3, 1899 ‐ At the time of the Yakutat earthquake, the shaking in Valdez was reportedly so strong “that men were made dizzy and could not stand, houses and forests were disturbed, and there were earthquake water waves in Port Valdez” (Tarr and Martin, 1912, pg. 66).
There is also a fugitive report that a ship which had anchored off the mouth of the Lowe River in 40 feet of water in 1898 was unable to reach bottom with 200 feet of cable in the same spot late in the fall of 1899. (Effects of the Earthquake of March 27, 1964 at Valdez, Alaska ‐ A Geological Survey Professional Paper 542 C written by Henry W. Coulter and Ralph R. Migliaccio, pg. C7)
February 14, 1908 ‐ It was variously reported by eyewitnesses that at 1:41 a.m. local time, an earthquake that lasted from three seconds to about two minutes occurred. Several witnesses who were former residents of San Francisco stated that it seemed to be as violent as any of the shocks felt there on April 18, 1906.
It was also noted that the submarine cable in the Port of Valdez was broken. In a report by Grant and Higgins (1913, p. 12), the following statement concerning the 1908 quake was made: (It seems quite probable that slumping is taking place occasionally along the seaward edge of the delta. On February 14, 1908, an earthquake of considerable magnitude visited this district and broke in several places both the Seattle‐Valdez and the Valdez‐Seward cables, which run east and west through Port Valdez. Accompanying the earthquake, there seems to have been a slumping of the delta front, which buried sections of the cables. The cause of the earthquake is not known, but it is thought to have been minor faulting, for one of the cables was broken in deep water on the flat bottom of the fjord 11 miles from Valdez.)
It was further stated that the steamer Northwestern, which was approaching the dock at Valdez, encountered a “tidal wave” and “felt as though the ship struck on the bottom”. (Effects of the Earthquake of March 27, 1964 at Valdez, Alaska ‐ A Geological Survey Professional Paper 542 C written by Henry W. Coulter and Ralph R. Migliaccio, pgs C7 and C8)
September 21, 1911 ‐ A series of four earthquakes occurred between 7 and 8:30 p.m. The first was at 7:01 p.m. and lasted 20 seconds. The second happened at 7:13 and lasted between five and 10 seconds. The third occurred at 7:28 and lasted three to five seconds. The fourth and final came at 8:38 and lasted about two seconds. (Tarr and Martin, 1912, pg. 100)
Once again, it is noted that the submarine cables in the Port of Valdez were broken. The report by Tarr and Martin (1912, pg. 100) states the following: During this earthquake, the submarine cable from Valdez to Sitka was broken just north of Fort Liscum, at a point 3 3/16 mile west of the dock at Valdez, near latitude 61°06’08” N., and longitude 146°19’23” W., and was buried for 1,650 feet. This is almost exactly at one of the points where the cable was broken during the 116 earthquake of February 14, 1908, when twice as great a length of cable was buried near this break. The water here is 700 to 750 feet deep and the slope of the fjord bottom is less than 50 feet to the mile. The break at this same point on 1911 seems to verify our suggestion made in 1908 (p.98) that a fault exists there.
A.J. Burr, a former Valdez resident states: “that was the first time that we had ever observed Valdez Bay so literally covered with dead fish as a result of the concussions in the water that in most of the patches, the dead fish were so thick it was difficult to see much of the water” (written communication., July 29, 1964). (Effects of the Earthquake of March 27, 1964 at Valdez, Alaska ‐ A Geological Survey Professional Paper 542 C written by Henry W. Coulter and Ralph R. Migliaccio, pgs C8 and C9)
January 31, 1912 ‐ An earthquake occurred at 8:11 p.m. and though there are no eyewitness accounts of tsunami waves, it is documented again that submarine cables were broken in the Port of Valdez. (Effects of the Earthquake of March 27, 1964 at Valdez, Alaska –A Geological Survey Professional Paper 542 C written by Henry W. Coulter and Ralph R. Migliaccio, pg. C9)
February 23, 1925 – An earthquake occurred at 1:55 p.m. Many electric lines were broken, and the front wall of the vacant Valdez Brewery collapsed. More significantly, a part of the dock collapsed; an unusual wave accompanying the tremors tore up a section of the boardwalk along Water Street, and the submarine cables were again broken. (Gov. William A. Egan, oral communication., August, 1964) (Effects of the Earthquake of March 27, 1964 at Valdez, Alaska – A Geological Survey Professional Paper 542 C written by Henry W. Coulter and Ralph R. Migliaccio, pg. C9)
March 27, 1964 – An earthquake of magnitude 9.2 occurred in Prince William Sound. The first tremors were felt in Valdez at approximately 5:36 p.m. The shocks lasted from three to five minutes and were reported to have been accompanied by a low‐pitched rumbling sound. The single most disastrous event caused by the earthquake at Valdez was the submarine landslide, which occurred on the waterfront. There were two other landslides reported near the Shoup Bay area. These slides and their concomitant waves were responsible for the loss of 30 lives.
Exact details of the wave sequence at Valdez have been difficult to determine; however, four major waves have been distinguished. During the first two waves, most eyewitnesses state, the turbulence in the harbor area generated a mist or haze that obscured the bay beyond the shoreline.
The first major wave at Valdez closely followed the submarine slide. Without doubt, it was caused by the sudden transfer of approximately 98 million cubic yards of unconsolidated deposits from the face of the delta out into the bay. This first wave, estimated to have been from 30 to 40 feet high, surged onto the Valdez waterfront with destructive violence.
The second major wave to strike the waterfront at Valdez arrived approximately 10 minutes 117 after the strong ground motion ceased; it has been described as a violent surging wave only slightly smaller than the first.
The seismic energy plus the submarine landslides seem to have generated a complex multimodal seiche in Port Valdez that persisted until early the following morning.
At approximately 11:45 p.m. and 1:45 a.m., just before and just after high tide, waves three and four, described as rapidly moving tidal bores, advanced into the town. These two waves are presumed to have been the result of long‐period seiche waves with high tide. (Effects of the Earthquake of March 27, 1964 at Valdez, Alaska –A Geological Survey Professional Paper 542 C written by Henry W. Coulter and Ralph R. Migliaccio, pg. C14)
C. Location, Extent, Impact, and Probability of Future Events Location Currently, all coastal areas below 100 feet elevation and/or within one mile of Prince William Sound’s edge. Tsunami inundation mapping may lead to a revision of vulnerable areas. Property That May Be Affected: Port and harbor facilities, public works facilities, structures, vehicles, equipment, transportation facilities such as docks, float systems, hospital, animal shelter, and roads. Environment That May Be Affected: Wetlands with inclusive flora and fauna, coastal vegetation. Unusual Conditions: Locations containing Hazardous Materials including the Trans Alaska Pipeline Marine Terminal, and multiple fish processing facilities containing by example but not exclusively the following hazardous materials: Ammonia, Freon, Crude Oil, etc.; Psychological impacts due to major loss of life and traumatic injuries. Sheltering for displaced populations. The Trans Alaska Pipeline Marine Terminal sits on the Port of Valdez, which if impacted could affect the economy of the entire U.S., most notably the West Coast to which it supplies 60% of the coasts oil.
Extent Research indicates there is no formally adopted U.S. or international intensity scale for tsunamis. Although two scales do exist, and two additional have been proposed for adoption in recent years. According to www.geology.about.com,the first tsunami severity scale was developed in 1927 by August Sieberg and was modeled after scales used for earthquakes. This scale was modified in 1962 by Nicholas Ambraseys and is now referred to as the Sieberg‐ Ambraseys Tsunami Intensity Scale. This scale has six levels. Table 32 describes these levels. Table 32—Sieberg‐Ambraseys Tsunami Intensity Scale Intensity Description 1. Very Light Wave so weak as to be perceptible only on tide‐gauge records Wave noticed by those living along the shore and familiar with the sea 2. Light On very flat shores generally noticed
118 Generally noticed Flooding of gently sloping coasts 3. Rather Strong Light sailing vessels carried away on shore Slight damage to light structures situated near the coasts In estuaries reversal of the river flow some distance upstream Flooding of the shore to some depth Light scouring on man‐made ground Embankments and dikes damaged 4. Strong Light structures near the coasts damaged Solid structures on the coast injured Big sailing vessels and small ships drifted inland or carried out to sea Coasts littered with floating debris General flooding of the shore to some depth Quay‐walls and solid structures near the sea damaged Light structures destroyed Severe scouring of cultivated land and littering of the coast with floating items and sea animals 5. Very Strong With the exception of big ships all other type of vessels carried inland or out to sea Big bores in estuary rivers Harbor works damaged People drowned Wave accompanied by strong roar Partial or complete destruction of manmade structures for some distance from the shore Flooding of coasts to great depths 6. Disastrous Big ships severely damaged Trees uprooted or broken Many casualties
Geology.about.com reports the Sieberg‐Ambraseys scale was felt by some to be inadequate. In 2001, Gerassimos Papadopoulos and Fumihiko Imamura proposed a 12‐point scale of tsunami intensity. It is meant to correspond to current earthquake intensity scales. It is arranged according to a tsunami’s effects on (a) humans, (b) effects on objects including boats, and (c) damage to buildings. It should be noted that intensity‐I events on the tsunami scale, like their earthquake counterparts, would still be detected, in this case by tide gauges. The authors of the tsunami scale proposed a tentative, rough correlation with tsunami wave heights, which are also noted below. Damage grades are 1, slight damage; 2, moderate damage; 3, heavy damage; 4, destruction; 5, total collapse. Details can be found in the IASPEI Manual of Seismological Observatory Practice. The Twelve Point Tsunami Scale is shown in Table 33. Table 33—Twelve Point Tsunami Intensity Scale Intensity Description I. Not Felt None Felt by few people onboard small vessels and not observed on the coast II. Scarcely Felt No effect
119 No damage Felt by most people onboard small vessels and observed by a few people on the coast III. Weak No effect No damage Felt by all onboard small vessels and by few people onboard large vessels and Largely observed by most people on the coast IV. Observed Few small vessels move slightly onshore No damage Felt by all onboard large vessels and observed by all on the coast and few people are frightened and run to higher ground Many small vessels move strongly onshore, few of them crash into each other Strong V. or overturn (1 meter) Traces of sand layer are left behind on ground with favorable circumstances Limited flooding of cultivated land Limited flooding of outdoor facilities (such as gardens) of near‐shore structures Many people are frightened and run to higher ground Slightly Most small vessels move violently onshore, crash strongly into each other, or VI. Damaging overturn (2 meters) Damage and flooding in a few wooden structures Most masonry buildings withstand Many people are frightened and try to run to higher ground Many small vessels damaged Few large vessels oscillate violently Damaging Objects of variable size and stability overturn and drift VII. (4 meters) Sand layer and accumulations of pebbles are left behind Few aquaculture rafts washed away Many wooden structures damaged, few are demolished or washed away Damage of Grade 1 (slight damage) and flooding in a few masonry buildings All people escape to higher ground but a few are washed away Most of the small vessels are damaged and many are washed away Few large vessels are moved ashore or crash into each other Big objects are drifted away Erosion and littering of the beach Heavily Extensive flooding VIII. Damaging Slight damage in tsunami‐control forests and stop drifts (4 meters) Many aquaculture rafts washed away, few partially damaged Most wooden structures are washed away or demolished. Damage of Grade 2 (moderate damage) in a few masonry buildings Most reinforced‐concrete buildings sustain damage, a few damage of Grade 1 (slight damage) and flooding is observed Many people are washed away Most small vessels are destroyed or washed away Destructive Many large vessels are moved violently ashore, few are destroyed IX. (8 meters) Extensive erosion and littering of the beach Local ground subsidence Partial destruction in tsunami‐control forests and stop drifts 120 Most aquaculture rafts washed away, many partially damaged Damage of Grade 3 (heavy damage) in many masonry buildings Few reinforced‐concrete buildings suffer from damage Grade 2 (moderate damage) General panic Most people are washed away Most large vessels are moved violently ashore, many are destroyed or collide with buildings Very Destructive Small boulders from the sea bottom are moved inland X. (8 meters) Cars overturned and drifted. Oil spills, fires start. Extensive ground subsidence Damage of Grade 4 (destruction) in many masonry buildings Few reinforced‐concrete buildings suffer from damage Grade 3 (heavy damage) Artificial embankments collapse Port breakwaters damaged Lifelines interrupted Extensive fires Water backwash drifts cars and other objects into the sea Devastating XI. Big boulders from sea bottom are moved inland (16 meters) Damage of Grade 5 (total collapse) in many masonry buildings Few reinforced‐concrete buildings suffer from damage Grade 4 (destruction) and many suffer from damage Grade 3 (heavy damage) Completely Practically all masonry buildings demolished XII. Devastating Most reinforced concrete buildings suffer from at least damage Grade 3 (heavy (32 meters) damage)
Based on past events (and the town being relocated four miles after the most recent event) and the criteria identified in Table 13 (Extent of Hazard Ranking), the magnitude and severity of tsunamis to the City at its new location is considered critical in that injuries that result from the hazard could result in permanent disability, with the potential for critical facilities to be shut down for at least two weeks, and more than 25% of property or critical infrastructure being severely damaged.
Impact A large tsunami could create major property damage. Facilities and on‐shore structures are adjacent to the shoreline. It is assumed that a tsunami could damage or destroy most of the infrastructure throughout the area. Transportation infrastructure could suffer from road damage, damage to the harbor, and damage to docking facilities. However, no tsunamis have occurred since 1964 when the town location was moved.
Probability Based on the Planning Team’s statements concerning previous occurrences and the criteria identified in Table 14 (Probability Criteria), it is unlikely that a tsunami will occur within the next 10 years, the event has up to 1 in 10 year’s chance of occurring (1/10=10%) with history of events less than or equal to 10% likely per year. This event is "Unlikely" but is possible of occurring. 121 D. Vulnerability Assessment A tsunami warning signal system has been installed throughout the populated areas to alert the public of a tsunami warning or watch for Valdez. These warning signals are tested every Friday at 5:00 p.m. The tsunami‐warning signal for the City of Valdez is a wavering tone for a three‐ minute repeating period. This signal indicates that according to the best available information a tsunami wave is coming. Whenever this signal is sounded (except Friday at 5:00 p.m.), local residents should follow the evacuation procedures outlined in the Warning Annex of the Emergency Operations Plan.
122 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION III RISK ASSESSMENT
VOLCANO
123 3.8 Volcano Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska 3.8.1 Hazard Profile
A. Description Alaska is home to more than 80 major volcanic centers, 41 of which have been active in the last 250 years. On average, there are one or two eruptions or reports of volcanic unrest each year. Over half of the State’s population lives within 100 miles of an active volcano.
A volcano is a vent at the Earth’s surface through which magma (molten rock) and associated gases erupt, and also the landform built by effusive and explosive eruptions. Volcanoes display a wide variety of shapes, sizes, and behavior; however, they are commonly classified among three main types: cinder cone, composite, and shield.
The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), which is a cooperative program of the USGS, DNR/DGGS, and the UAF/GI, monitors the seismic activity at 23 of Alaska’s 41 active volcanoes in real time. In addition, satellite images of all Alaskan and Russian volcanoes are analyzed daily for evidence of ash plumes and elevated surface temperatures. Russian volcanoes are also a concern to Alaska as prevailing winds could carry large ash plumes from Kamchatka into Alaskan air space. AVO also researches the individual history of Alaska’s active volcanoes and produces hazard assessment maps for each center. The Alaska Tsunami Warning Center, located in Palmer also monitors volcanic and earthquake activity throughout the Pacific region.
The single greatest volcanic hazard in Valdez is airborne ash, fine fragments of rock blown high into the atmosphere during explosive volcanic eruptions. Coarse particles fall near the volcano, but the fine particulates are carried downwind as an eruption cloud posing a hazard to aircraft and populations even hundreds or thousands of miles away. Ash is extremely abrasive, does not dissolve in water, and is heavy and slippery when wet. Inhaling ash is dangerous, especially for children, the elderly, and those with breathing problems. Ash can also affect machinery such as cars and electrical generators. Volcanic ash nearly caused the greatest loss of life of any disaster event in Alaska. During the 1989 eruption of Mount Redoubt, a commercial airliner, with 245 passengers and crew aboard, flew into an ash cloud resulting in a loss of power to all four engines. The following figure shows ashfall from the 1912 Novarupta eruption compared to other Alaska eruptions.
B. Previous Occurrences Valdez has been impacted by one volcanic ashfall event – 1992 Redoubt eruption. Air travel was impacted, and fishing vessels were out in the grounds unable to run through ash to return to the harbor.
C. Location, Extent, Impact, and Probability of Future Events Location No active volcanoes exist in the immediate Valdez area. Active volcanoes nearest to Valdez are 124 Mount Redoubt and Mount Spurr.
Extent Based on past events and the criteria identified in Table 13 (Extent of Hazard Ranking), the magnitude and severity of ash fall to the City is considered negligible where injuries and/or illnesses are treatable with first aid; minor quality of life is lost; shutdown of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less; and less than 10% of property is severely damaged. Figure 18 shows the extent of the affected areas for Ash Fall within the State of Alaska. Figure 18—Areas Affected by Ash Falls
Impact Heavy ash fall can reduce sunlight causing a peak electrical demand resulting in brown‐outs. Ash can clog watercourses and sewage treatment facilities and may affect electronic equipment and all kinds of machinery. A one‐inch layer of ash weighs 10 pounds per square foot – ash accumulation on structures may cause damage. Fresh ash is extremely slippery, especially when wet, and can hamper both driving and walking. Ash can damage the lungs of infants, the very old or infirm, and those already suffering from respiratory illness. Under most circumstances, Valdez residents will be “sheltered in place” and be instructed in the use of alternative filtering materials.
Probability Based on the Planning Team’s statements concerning previous occurrences and the criteria identified in Table 14 (Probability Criteria), it is unlikely that ash fall will occur within the next 10 years, the event has up to 1 in 10 year’s chance of occurring (1/10=10%) with history of events less than or equal to 10% likely per year. This event is "Unlikely" but is possible of occurring.
125 D. Vulnerability Assessment Impacts to future populations, residences, critical facilities, and infrastructure are anticipated at the same impact level.
126 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION III RISK ASSESSMENT
WILDFIRE
127 3.9 Wildfire Hazard Analysis for Valdez, Alaska 3.9.1 Hazard Profile
A. Hazard Description In Alaska, there are between 600 and 800 wildfires each year. Most occur between March and October. Many wildfires can be beneficial to ecosystems and are essential to maintaining biodiversity and long‐term health and regeneration in forests. However, one in every 10 wildfires causes extensive damage to residences or communities. For this reason, it is important to know when the danger is high, where the danger is greatest, and have a plan to protect homes and lives whenever they are at risk.
According to the Alaska Interagency Fire Management Plan, Valdez has a moderate probability of wildfire occurrence as shown in Figure 19. It is listed as a critical protection area, which means it has full protection under the state protection options. Should there be a wildfire in Valdez, the suppression objective is to control the fire at the smallest acreage reasonably possible. The allocation of suppression resources to fires receiving the full protection option is second in priority only to fires threatening a critical protection designation from the State. Figure 19—Alaska Interagency Fire Management Plan ‐ Fire Risk Map
B. Previous Occurrences The community of Valdez has experienced several wildland fire events. The following table proves information on past fire events, impacts, and estimated losses. There have been 21 fires within the Valdez area. The table below shows the history of all wildland fires since 1939, and the figure on the following page shows this information pictorially. (AICC, 2017)
To date, there has been no recorded evidence of a wildfire event that threatened lives or infrastructure in Valdez. A summary of wildland fire events from 1939 to 2017 for the Valdez area is shown in Table 34. 128 Table 34—History of Fire Events from 1939 to 2017 in Valdez Fire Fire Name Year Estimated Acres Latitude Longitude Specific Cause NINE MILE LAKE 1957 0.1 61.0666656 ‐146.0833282 RECREATION UPPER MENDELTNA 1957 0.1 61.1666679 ‐146.6666718 LIGHTNING VALDEZ W‐4 1959 3 61.1500015 ‐146.3333282 DEBRIS BNG GOLD STREA 1993 1 61.1333351 ‐146.4666595 OTHER VALDEZ #1 1994 0.1 61.1333351 ‐146.3166656 COOKING FIRE TownMountain 1999 104 61.13334 ‐146.3667 Children ROBE LAKE SE 2000 0.1 61.08333 ‐146.1667 FIREWORKS DOCK POINT 2000 0.1 61.13334 ‐146.3667 Campfire Valdez # 1 2000 10 61.13334 ‐146.4 LAND CLEAR 12 Mile Richardson 2000 1 61.06667 ‐145.9667 POWERLINE Valdez # 2 2000 0.1 61.13334 ‐146.3333 Campfire DOCK PT. TRAIL 2001 0.1 61.11666 ‐146.3 SMOKING Robe Lake VFD 2004 0.1 61.08333 ‐146.1333 Cooking/Warming Fire Dock Point VFD 2004 0.1 61.11666 ‐146.3167 Smoking Valdez #1 2006 0.1 61.1333351 ‐146.3666687 Children Deck Point Fire 2006 0.1 61.1166649 ‐146.3166656 Campfire Homestead Road 2007 0.1 61.1349983 ‐146.3874969 Debris Burning Valdez # 1 2007 0.1 61.1333351 ‐146.3999939 Other False Alarm #4 2015 0 61.1266667 ‐146.5852778 False Alarm Dock Point 2016 0.1 61.1270833 ‐146.3275 Human Valdez #1 2016 0.1 61.1316667 ‐146.3793333 Human
C. Location, Extent, Impact, and Probability of Future Events Location Under certain conditions, wildland fires may occur in any area with fuel surrounding the City. Since fuels data is not readily available, for the purposes of this HMP, all areas outside City limits are considered to be vulnerable to wildland fire impacts. From 1939 to 2017, there have been 21 fires near Valdez (AICC, 2017).
Extent Generally, fire vulnerability dramatically increases in the late summer and early fall as vegetation dries out, decreasing plant moisture content and increasing the ratio of dead fuel to living fuel. However, various other factors, including humidity, wind speed and direction, fuel load and type, and topography can contribute to the intensity and spread of wildland fires. The common causes of wildland fires in Alaska include lightning strikes and human negligence.
Fuel, weather, and topography influence wildland fire behavior. Wildland fire behavior can be erratic and extreme causing fire whirls and firestorms that can endanger the lives of the firefighters trying to suppress the blaze. Fuel determines how much energy the fire releases, how quickly the fire spreads and how much effort is needed to contain the fire. Weather is the most variable factor. Temperature and humidity also affect fire behavior. High temperatures 129 and low humidity encourage fire activity while low temperatures and high humidity help retard fire behavior. Wind affects the speed and direction of a fire. Topography directs the movement of air, which can also affect fire behavior. When the terrain funnels air, like what happens in a canyon, it can lead to faster spreading. Fire can also travel up slope quicker than it goes down. Figure 20 shows the wildland fires from Table 34 within the Valdez area. Figure 20—Valdez Wildland Fire Locations
Recent wildland fires appear to burn much smaller acreage per event. This may be due to the fact that the State’s Division of Forestry much more efficiently manages wildland fires using a four‐tired suppression methodology based on infrastructure criticality which uses more modern resources as they respond to wildland fires which potentially threaten populated areas. Based on past wildland fire events and the criteria identified in Table 13 (Extent of Hazard Ranking), the magnitude and severity of wildland fire to the City are considered negligible with potential injuries and/or illnesses treatable with first aid, minor quality of life lost, shut down of critical facilities and services for 24 hours or less, and less than 10% of property severely damaged.
Impact Impacts of a wildland fire that interfaces with the population center of the City could grow into 130 an emergency or disaster if not properly controlled. A small fire can threaten lives and resources and destroy property. In addition to impacting people, wildland fires may severely impact livestock and pets. Such events may require emergency watering and feeding, evacuation, and alternative shelter.
Indirect impacts of wildland fires can be catastrophic. In addition to stripping the land of vegetation and destroying forest resources, large, intense fires can harm the soil, waterways, and the land itself. Soil exposed to intense heat may lose it capability to absorb moisture and support life. Exposed soils erode quickly and enhance siltation of rivers and streams, thus increasing flood potential, harming aquatic life, and degrading water supply.
Probability Fire is recognized as a critical feature of the natural history of many ecosystems. It is essential to maintain the biodiversity and long‐term ecological health of the land. The role of wildland fire as an essential ecological process and natural change agent has been incorporated into the fire management planning process. The full range of fire management activities is exercised in Alaska, to help achieve ecosystem sustainability, including its interrelated ecological, economic, and social consequences on firefighters, public safety and welfare; natural and cultural resources threated; and the other values to be protected dictate the appropriate management response to the fire.
Based on the Planning Team’s statements concerning previous occurrences and the criteria identified in Table 14 (Probability Criteria), it is unlikely that a wildland fire will occur within the next 10 years, event has up to 1 in 10 year’s chance of occurring (1/10=10%), history of events is less than or equal to 10% likely per year, and event is "Unlikely" but is possible of occurring.
D. Vulnerability Assessment Impacts to future populations, residences, critical facilities, and infrastructure are anticipated at the same impact level.
131 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION IV MITIGATION STRATEGY
132 4.0 Mitigation Strategy
The Mitigation Strategy section of the City of Valdez 2018 HMP describes how the City will reduce or eliminate potential losses from hazards identified in the Risk Assessment section. The strategy focuses on existing and potential mitigation actions that will mitigate the effects of a natural hazard event on the population, economy, and property of Valdez. The Mitigation Strategy is a comprehensive range of inventive and effective natural hazard mitigation actions.
4.1 Mitigation Strategy Approach 1. Establish mitigation goals and objectives that aim to reduce or eliminate Valdez’s long‐term vulnerability to natural hazard events. 2. Identify and analyze a comprehensive range of hazard‐specific mitigation actions that aim to achieve the goals and objectives of the Mitigation Strategy. 3. Describe how Valdez will prioritize, implement, and administer mitigation actions.
4.2 FEMA Requirements Addressed in this Section The City of Valdez developed the mitigation strategy consistent with the process and steps presented in FEMA’s Local Mitigation Planning Handbook (March 2013). As outlined in the Handbook, the mitigation strategy is comprised of three components: Mitigation Goals: General guidelines that explain what the community wants to achieve with the plan. They are usually broad policy‐type statements that are long‐term, and they represent visions for reducing or avoiding losses from the identified hazards. Mitigation Actions: Specific projects and activities that help achieve the mitigation goals. Mitigation Action Plan: Describes how the mitigation actions will be implemented, including how those actions will be prioritized, administered, and incorporated into the community’s existing planning mechanisms. The following FEMA requirements are addressed in this section: Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(i): The hazard mitigation strategy shall include a description of mitigation goals to reduce or avoid long‐term vulnerabilities to the identified hazards. Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(ii): The mitigation strategy shall include a section that identifies and analyzes a comprehensive range of specific mitigation actions and projects being considered to reduce the effects of each hazard, with particular emphasis on new and existing buildings and infrastructure. The mitigation strategy must also address the jurisdiction’s participation in the NFIP and continued compliance with NFIP requirements, as appropriate. Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(iii): The mitigation strategy section shall include an action plan describing how the action identified in section (c)(3)(ii) will be prioritized, implemented, and administered by the local jurisdiction. Prioritization shall include a special emphasis on the extent to which benefits are maximized according to a cost benefit review of the proposed projects and their associated costs.
133 4.3 Developing Goals and Objectives The first step in developing a hazard mitigation strategy is to establish goals that aim to reduce or eliminate Valdez’s long‐term vulnerability to natural hazard events. Mitigation goals are general guidelines explaining what the City of Valdez wants to achieve in terms of hazard and loss prevention. Developing clear goals will help the City of Valdez reinforce the overall purpose and mission for undertaking a mitigation planning process.
In Valdez’s 2008 HMP, only goals and projects (mitigation actions) were developed. The goals pertained directly to each natural hazard identified in the hazard risk assessment. There were no comprehensive goals. These goals are outlined Table 35. Table 35—2008 Hazard Mitigation Plan Goals Flood/Erosion Goals Reduce flood damage. Support elevation, flood proofing, buyout or relocation of Goal 1 structures that are in danger of flooding or are located on eroding banks. Prevent future flood damage. Continue to enforce the NFIP through City ordinances and Goal 2 regulations. Discourage development in areas subject to flood/erosion damage. Increase public awareness. Increase public knowledge about mitigation opportunities, Goal 3 floodplain functions, emergency service procedures, and potential hazards. Severe Weather Goals Mitigate the effects of extreme weather by instituting programs that provide early Goal 1 warning and preparation. Goal 2 Educate people about the dangers of extreme weather and how to prepare. Goal 3 Develop practical measures to warn in the event of severe weather. Earthquake Goals Goal 1 Obtain funding to protect existing critical infrastructure from earthquake damage. Tsunami/Seiche Goals Goal 1 Increase public education about Tsunamis and Seiches. Goal 2 Tsunami Ready community designation. Goal 3 Develop accurate inundation maps for the Port of Valdez. Goal 4 Update the Valdez Emergency Operations Plan. Avalanche/Landslide Goals Reduce Valdez’s vulnerability to avalanche and landslide hazards in terms of threat to Goal 1 life and property. Have comprehensive information regarding avalanche and landslide hazards and Goal 2 unstable soils throughout Valdez’s developed area, including areas that will be developed in the future. Goal 3 Increase public awareness of avalanche and landslide dangers and hazard zones. Wildland Fire Goal 1 Establish building regulations to mitigate against fire damage. Goal 2 Conduct outreach activities to encourage the use of Fire Wise development techniques. Goal 3 Encourage the evaluation of emergency plans with respect to wildland fire assessment. Goal 4 Acquire information on the danger of wildland fires and how best to prepare.
In 2018, two new potential hazards (dam failure and volcano ash) were added to the HMP. Additionally, the Planning and Zoning Commission, in concert with City administrative staff, developed a new 134 preliminary set of comprehensive hazard mitigation goals based on the 2008 goals, the findings of the Risk Assessment, the New York City HMP, and the State of Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan. These goals and objectives were distributed for review by the community and input was sought at public hearings. Based on recommendations and suggestions from the public and community stakeholders, the Planning & Zoning Commission revised and refined the goals and objectives into the final list in Table 36.
The goals and objectives set forth below provide the necessary frame work to develop a mitigation strategy. The City of Valdez will re‐evaluate its hazard mitigation goals each plan maintenance cycle to ensure they continue to represent the community’s natural hazard mitigation priorities. Table 36—Hazard Mitigation Goals and Objectives Goal 1: Protect public health and safety Objective 1.1 Improve systems that provide warning and emergency communications. Objective 1.2 Reduce the impacts of hazards on vulnerable populations. Objective 1.3 Strengthen local building code education and enforcement. Objective 1.4 Minimize social dislocation and stress. Objective 1.5 Strengthen evacuation and sheltering plans/procedures. Objective 1.6 Improve training of emergency responders. Objective 1.7 Save lives and reduce injuries. Objective 1.8 Form partnerships to leverage and share resources. Goal 2: Protect Property Protect critical facilities and services; minimize impacts to operations; and expedite Objective 2.1 recovery in an emergency. Consider known hazards when identifying sites for new development and Objective 2.2 construction. When possible, create redundancies for crucial networks such as water, sewer, power, Objective 2.3 communications, and digital data. Objective 2.4 Maintain critical facilities and infrastructure in functional order. Integrate new hazard and risk information into building and subdivision codes, and Objective 2.5 land use planning mechanisms. Educate public officials, developers, realtors, contractors, land and building owners, Objective 2.6 and the public about hazard risks and building requirements. Promote appropriate mitigation actions for all public and privately‐owned property within the City’s jurisdiction including, but not limited to, residential units, commercial Objective 2.7 structures, educational institutions, healthcare facilities, cultural facilities, and infrastructure systems. Incorporate effective mitigation strategies into the City of Valdez Capital Objective 2.8 Improvement Project and Major Maintenance programs. Objective 2.9 Promote post‐disaster mitigation as part of restoration and recovery. Goal 3: Promote a sustainable economy Objective 3.1 Form partnerships to leverage and share resources. Objective 3.2 Continue critical business operations. Objective 3.3 Restore non‐critical business operations as soon as possible. Partner with private sector, including small businesses, to promote structural and Objective 3.4 non‐structural hazard mitigation as part of standard business practice. Educate businesses about city‐wide contingency planning, targeting small businesses, Objective 3.5 and those businesses located in high risk areas. 135 Partner with private sector to promote employee/employer education about disaster Objective 3.6 preparedness while at work and at home. Goal 4: Protect the environment and natural resources Objective 4.1 Develop hazard mitigation policies that protect the environment. Develop mitigation strategies that lessen the impact of natural hazards on natural Objective 4.2 resources. Goal 5: Maintain local government and non‐government organization operations Develop mitigation strategies that lessen the impacts of natural hazards on local Objective 5.1 government services. Develop mitigation strategies that lessen the impacts of natural hazards on the service Objective 5.2 delivery of local non‐governmental agencies, especially the providers of social services. Goal 6: Increase public preparedness for disasters Objective 6.1 Enhance understanding of natural hazards and the risks they pose. Objective 6.2 Improve hazard information, including databases and maps. Improve public knowledge of hazards and protective measures allowing individual to Objective 6.3 appropriately prepare for and respond to hazard events. 4.4 Identification and Analysis of Mitigation Actions Mitigation actions include programs, project, or policies that help reduce or eliminate the long‐ term risk to human life and property from natural hazards. The Planning & Zoning Commission, with the assistance of City administrative staff, identified and analyzed a comprehensive range of hazard‐specific mitigation actions with particular emphasis on actions that affect new or existing buildings and infrastructure within Valdez. The actions were prioritized among the group by use of Social, Technical, Administrative, Political, Legal, Economic, and Environmental (STAPLEE). Using that method the group came to a concensus on which actions to prioritze. A. Identification Planning and Zoning Commission members identified both existing and potential actions that have the following criteria: Reduce or eliminate the long‐term risk to human life and property from at least one of the nine natural hazards identified in the Risk Assessment Section; Fall under one or more of the six FEMA mitigation action categories; and Achieve one or more of the six hazard mitigation goals and 30 objectives.
B. Mitigation Action Categories FEMA organizes mitigation actions into six broad categories. These categories allow similar types of mitigation actions to be compared and provides a standard method for eliminating unsuitable actions. All mitigation actions identified in this strategy fall within one of the following FEMA mitigation categories: 1. Prevention: Government administrative or regulatory actions or processes that influence the way land and buildings are developed and built. These actions also include public activities that reduce hazard losses. Examples from this strategy include building and construction code revisions, zoning regulation changes, and computer‐hazard modeling. 2. Property Protection: Actions that involve the modification of existing buildings or structures to protect them from a hazard, or removal from the hazard area. Examples from this 136 strategy include retrofitting or rehabilitation, floodproofing, and community protective works. 3. Public Education and Awareness: Actions to inform and educate citizens, elected officials, and property owners about the hazards and potential ways to mitigate them. Examples from this strategy include hazard mapping, public outreach, availability of hazard resources, and programs targeting vulnerable populations. 4. Natural Resource Protection: Actions that, in addition to minimizing hazard losses, also preserve or restore the functions of natural systems. Examples from this strategy include projects to create open space, greenbelts, bluebelts, or wetlands. 5. Emergency Services: Actions that protect people and property during and immediately after a disaster or hazard event. Examples from this strategy include enhancements that provide advanced warning and redundant communications. 6. Structural Projects: Actions that involve the construction of structures to reduce the impact of a hazard. Examples from this strategy include levy systems and seawalls.
C. Existing Mitigation Actions Existing mitigation actions are the City of Valdez’s programs, plans, projects, and policies currently underway that mitigate hazards. By assessing what the City has accomplished, and what the City is currently doing to mitigate natural hazards, the Planning and Zoning Commission was able to determine how the City might expand or improve upon these programs. Tables 37 thru 44 provide an updated status of the 2008 mitigation actions. Priorities have remained the same since the 2008 plan.
D. New Mitigation Actions During the 2018 plan update, the City of Valdez developed new Mitigation Actions for hazards not included in the 2008 plan. The new mitigation actions are shown in Tables 38 and 44.
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138 Table 37—2008 Avalanche Mitigation Actions Goal 1: Reduce Valdez’s vulnerability to avalanche and landslide hazards in terms of threat to life and property. Goal 2: Have comprehensive information regarding avalanche and landslide hazards and unstable soils throughout Valdez’s developed area, including areas that will be developed in the future. Goal 3: Increase public awareness of avalanche and landslide dangers and hazard zones. Project Estimated Possible Responsible Support Action Description Timeframe/ Project Funding Status Party Parties Duration Cost Sources Prohibit new construction in avalanche zones. Code 2018/ A/L‐1 Construction in avalanche zones means bigger losses in the future should an avalanche City Planner Enforcement $1,000 City Budget Porcupine Street is closed, and existing homes were moved in 2000. Complete/On‐going Ongoing occur. New construction in hazard zones should be discouraged or prohibited, even if Officer structures are not intended for habitation. Utilize appropriate methods of structural avalanche control. Containment structures, depending on their design, can prevent snow loads from releasing and forming an avalanche, and/or protect structures by diverting or Public The high school was hit by an avalanche in 2000; the gym walls were reinforced in either 2001 or 2002. A/L‐2 containing avalanche debris. Such structures include snow fences, Works City Planner 2019 $250,000 City Budget The City monitors the outburst flooding on Glacier Stream. diversion/containment structures, snow nets, and reforestation. The City is supporting Department the DGGS in its Valdez Snow Avalanche, Landslide, and Glacial Outburst Flood Hazard Assessment that will help in determining mitigation efforts. Enact buyout of homes in avalanche paths. A buyout could be implemented to reduce the number of people living in avalanche Code zones. Update existing structures within the avalanche zone to avalanche impact A/L‐3 City Planner Enforcement Complete N/A N/A Complete. This mitigation action will be deleted in the 2023 plan update. standards. Structures that already exist can be made safer with structural Officer reinforcements. The City bought six homes on Porcupine Avenue after the avalanche of 2000 and relocated them to the Corbin Creek Subdivision. Public disclosure of risk linked to deed or title of property and require owners to notify Code renters of hazard prior to occupancy. A/L‐5 City Planner Enforcement 2020 $1,000 City Budget Incomplete; need to implement Many residents, especially renters, are not aware of the locations of landslide zones or Officer the potential dangers inherent in living with them. Continue to educate the public about avalanche and landslide hazards. Information can In Progress. The City remodeled part of a well house on West Egan and worked with the NWS to install be disseminated to the public through the City web site, press releases, media ads, and a weather station in 2015 for the Valdez Avalanche Center staff to record measurements. Additionally, Valdez other methods. Continue to support the Avalanche Awareness Center. since 2012 the City of Valdez has been providing a small amount of financial assistance to the Valdez Avalanche City of A/L‐6 Ongoing $500 City Budget Avalanche Information Center. The volunteers for this organization obtain, and disseminate avalanche Information Valdez safety information, conditions and forecasting as a preventative measure against urban avalanche Center damage and injury and back country recreational injury or death due to avalanche. The City also provides them with space for their snow monitoring equipment in the wellhouse off West Egan. Table 38—2018 Dam Failure Mitigation Actions Goal 1: None. Not included as a hazard in the 2008 plan. Project Possible Responsible Support Estimated Action Description Timeframe/ Funding Status Party Parties Project Cost Duration Sources New in 2018: Evaluation of all dams after a 5.0 Magnitude Earthquake within 100 miles Copper New in 2018 plan update. On‐going for structural issues. The earthen dams should be checked for structural failures within Valley City of Dam D‐1 after a 5.0 $0‐$5,000 the soil structure which includes water weeping through the dams. Electric Valdez Owners earthquake Association
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140 Table 39—2008 Earthquake Mitigation Actions Goal 1: Obtain funding to protect critical infrastructure from earthquake damage. Project Possible Responsible Support Estimated Action Description Timeframe/ Funding Status Party Parties Project Cost Duration Sources If funding is available, perform an engineering assessment of the earthquake City Buildings have been assessed and improved over the years. Complete. This mitigation action will be E‐1 vulnerability of each identified critical infrastructure owned by the City of Valdez. Engineering City Planner Complete N/A N/A deleted in the 2023 plan update. Department Identify buildings and facilities that must be able to remain operable during and City The old middle school gymnasium, an evacuation facility, has been replaced. The new gymnasium is E‐2 following an earthquake event. Engineering City Planner 2019 $5,000 City Budget larger and has an emergency generator. Department Contract with a structural engineering firm to assess the identified buildings and City Not Started due to staff transitions. The City will implement this mitigation action before the 2023 E‐3 facilities to determine their structural integrity and strategy to improve their Engineering City Planner 2019 $95,000 City Budget Update. earthquake resistance. Department
Table 40—2008 Flood/Erosion Mitigation Actions Goal 1: Reduce flood damage. Support elevation, flood proofing, buyout or relocation of structures that are in danger of flooding or are located on eroding banks. Goal 2: Prevent future flood damage. Continue to enforce the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) through City ordinances and regulations. Discourage development in areas subject to flood/erosion damage. Goal 3: Increase public awareness. Increase public knowledge about mitigation opportunities, floodplain functions, emergency service procedures, and potential hazards. Project Possible Responsible Support Estimated Action Description Timeframe/ Funding Status Party Parties Project Cost Duration Sources Riprap Valdez Glacier Stream. Continue replacing and enhancing existing riprap barrier of Valdez Glacier Stream. In 2016, the City constructed a revetment north of the bridge and plans to extend it to fill the gap Bank erosion along the Glacier Haul Road that abuts the Valdez Glacier Stream between it and the ADOT project in Summer 2018. In 2016, riprap was installed along the road to the City of FLD‐1 continues. Riprap armor material has been staged in the vicinity. Additional riprap is AK DOT&PF 2018 $100,000 City Budget landfill. The ADOT River Encroachment project will armor the area along the Valdez Glacier Stream Valdez added in the event of any emergency flood/erosion when the river threatens to break Bridge and will replace lost rip‐rap along the bike path north of the bridge. In 2017, two new dikes through the road endangering approximately three residences and the integrity of the were constructed downstream of the bridge. Valdez Landfill. Rechannelization of Valdez Glacier Stream. Continue efforts to rechannel Valdez Glacier Stream to undeveloped areas. The City applied and was granted a gravel extraction permit by the USACE in Fall 2013 to extract up to 100,000 cubic yards of material annually from the Valdez Glacier The City plans on excavating up to 50,000 cubic yards of gravel in Summer 2018 south of the Glacier Stream. The gravel was used to build several revetments along the stream and the Stream Bridge to keep the river in the middle of the channel. Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) dike. Gravel extraction to steer the City of FLD‐2 water bodies away from developed areas has a proven track record of mitigating AK DOT&PF 2018 $100,000 City Budget Valdez potential flooding/erosion events. The City obtained a NRCS Emergency Watershed Protection grant in 2017 for the construction of a 1,975‐foot training dike and revetment along Copper Avenue south of The project was completed in the fall of 2017. This mitigation action will be deleted in the 2023 plan the Glacier Stream Bridge. The City also purchased the property along Copper Avenue update. to gain site control as a portion of the right of way had migrated onto private property. This dike will protect the KCHU radio tower, power poles, and Copper Avenue itself. Dike Repair and Expansion – Alpine Woods Subdivision. Improve and expand the subdivision dike to protect against the Lowe River. The existing dike system was extended at the downstream end both in 2015 and 2016. Groins 1 and 2 were also extended in 2015. In 2010, Groin #3 of the Alpine Woods Levy System was taken from a piece of City of FLD‐3 infrastructure hastily constructed during the 2006 Flood and improved to be a third AK DOT&PF Completed $100,000 City Budget All three phases have been completed. This mitigation action will be deleted in the 2023 plan update. Valdez groin at the east end of Nordic Subdivision. Phase II joined Groin #1 and Groin #3 together. Groin #3 was constructed in 2013. The section between it and the freeboard work. The project began in 2013 and was completed in the early summer of 2014. Phase III included maintenance on Groin #1 and Groin #2. This phase was completed in 2015. Freeboard was raised from #1 to #3 in 2017. 141 This Page Is Intentionally Blank
142 Table 38—2008 Flood/Erosion Mitigation Actions (Continued) Project Possible Responsible Support Estimated Action Description Timeframe/ Funding Status Party Parties Project Cost Duration Sources Mineral Creek Flood Management Diking System Maintenance and Gravel Removal. In 2012, URS (now AECOM) conducted an assessment of the Mineral Creek dike system and noted deficiencies and areas for improvement. Those recommendations were not incorporated into any capital improvement project plan at that time. The City had a City of The system was inspected, and a list of erosion areas to be repaired was created. Repairs will be made FLD‐4 ten‐year extraction permit from the USACE for extraction in Mineral Creek for up to AK DOT&PF 2018 $100,000 City Budget Valdez in 2018. 30,000 cubic yards annually that expired in 2012. A gravel extraction plan was prepared in 2017, and 25,000 cubic yards were removed from Mineral Creek that year. Gravel extraction to steer the water bodies away from developed areas has a proven track record of mitigating potential flooding/erosion events. Gravel Extraction‐Valdez Glacier Creek and Mineral Creek. City of FLD‐5 AK DOT&PF 2018 $100,000 City Budget 17, 210 cubic yards of gravel were removed from Mineral Creek in 2017. Mineral Creek is covered under Mitigation Action FLD‐4. Valdez Structure Elevation and/or Relocation. A list of homes, commercial structures, and critical facilities that are in danger of flooding and in erosion danger should be identified and mitigation projects for elevating and/or relocating the structures should be determined. City of FLD‐6 The list of structures was completed in 2009. The one flood repetitive loss property in FEMA Completed Unknown FEMA Complete. This mitigation action will be deleted in the 2023 plan update. Valdez Valdez was raised/elevated in Fall 2013. Another structure in Alpine Woods with repetitive flooding was the recipient of a Soil & Water Conservation Grant. In early 2013, the grant money was used to construct a diversion structure used to move water away from the property. Valdez Maps. Accurate flood maps should be prepared that delineate areas of flooding 2019/ 90% Complete. The 90‐day appeal period for the Preliminary Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) and and upland areas. Ongoing as FEMA & City of Flood Insurance Study (FIS) ended February 27, 2018. FEMA expects to issue a Letter of Final FLD‐7 The City of Valdez has been working with FEMA and the State of Alaska under FEMA’s the risk Unknown FEMA DHS&EM Valdez Determination in July 2018 approximately. The FIRMs and FIS will become effective around November RiskMap program to obtain updated flood maps. The last FIRM maps were completed in mapping is 2018 ‐ February 2019. the early 1980s. finished. Public Education. Increase public knowledge about mitigation opportunities, floodplain functions, emergency service procedures, and potential hazards. This would include The City’s CFM distributes a quarterly flood newsletter. The Community Development Office is a library 2018/ FLD‐8 advising property owners, potential property owners, and visitors about the hazards. In City Planner City Budget of material regarding floods, flood proofing, and flood mitigation. A more comprehensive approach to Ongoing addition, dissemination of a brochure or flyer on flood hazards could be developed and information dissemination is planned, specifically including social media opportunities. distributed to all households. Install new streamflow and rainfall measuring gauges. Complete. The stream gage for the Lowe River is https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ak/nwis/uv/?site Public FLD‐9 NOAA 2019 $20,000 City Budget no=15226620. The stream gage for Glacier Stream is https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ak/nwis/uv/?site Works no=15227090. Apply for grants/funds to implement riverbank protection methods. City FLD‐10 City Planner Ongoing $5,000 City Budget The USACE PAS Study will be implemented. Manager Pursue obtaining a CRS rating to lower flood insurance rates. City FLD‐11 City Planner 2021 $5,000 City Budget A CRS rating of 8 has been obtained. Manager Continue to obtain flood insurance for all City structures and continue compliance with City FLD‐12 City Planner 2021 $5,000 City Budget The City will continue to comply with the NFIP. NFIP. Manager Require that all new structures be constructed according to NFIP requirements and set City Zoning FLD‐13 City Planner 2021 $5,000 City Budget City Zoning laws will be checked to ensure that this is met and enforced. back from the river shoreline to lessen future erosion concerns and costs. Board In 2016, the City submitted to FEMA for levee certification/accreditation for the Lowe River Levee System through a Letter of Map Revision (LOMR). In the spring of 2017, 80% Complete. The City anticipates levee certification or accreditation in 2018. AECOM is currently FEMA required additional data to support the LOMR, including documentation of City of FLD‐14 AK DOT&PF 2018 $100,000 City Budget working on this. 2018/2019 completion. This Mitigation Action was added after the 2008 Plan was freeboard. The City authorized the adoption of the Lowe River Levee System Operation, Valdez published. Maintenance and Repair Manual. Alpine Woods Levee requires certification.
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144 Table 41—2008 Landslide Mitigation Actions Goal 1: Reduce Valdez’s vulnerability to avalanche and landslide hazards in terms of threat to life and property. Goal 2: Have comprehensive information regarding avalanche and landslide hazards and unstable soils throughout Valdez’s developed area, including areas that will be developed in the future. Goal 3: Increase public awareness of avalanche and landslide dangers and hazard zones. Project Possible Responsible Support Estimated Action Description Timeframe/ Funding Status Party Parties Project Cost Duration Sources Prohibit removal of vegetation in areas prone to landslides. Code Removal of vegetation from slopes can compromise the integrity of the soil and lead to L‐1 City Planner Enforcement 2020 $1,000 City Budget The mountainside above Valdez High School was lit on fire by arson twice (1985 and 2000). landslides. Requests to remove vegetation should be handled through a permit process Officer that involves an assessment of the area for landslide hazard. Public disclosure of risk linked to deed or title of property and require owners to notify Code renters of hazard prior to occupancy. L‐2 City Planner Enforcement 2020 $1,000 City Budget Property owners are being informed at the counter when applying for building permits. Many residents, especially renters, are not aware of the locations of landslide zones or Officer the potential dangers inherent in living with them. Install warning signage in mapped landslide zones. Code L‐3 City Planner Enforcement 2020 $1,000 City Budget The City is waiting for the new DGGS study results to implement this action. Officer Continue to educate the public about avalanche and landslide hazards. Information can Code The City uses its website, newspaper ads, Community Development handout library to disperse L‐4 be disseminated to the public through the City web site, press releases, media ads, and City Planner Enforcement 2020 $1,000 City Budget information. other methods. Officer Conduct additional study of unstable soils and avalanche or landslide prone areas. Specifically, those areas that have not yet been studied and might present additional City L‐5 dangers in the form of underwater landslides, or landslides that may cause tsunamis. Engineering City Planner 2019 $95,000 City Budget New Mitigation Action for 2018 The City supports the AGGS in its proposed Valdez Snow Avalanche, Landslide, and Department Glacial Outburst Flood Hazard Assessment.
Table 42—2008 Severe Weather Mitigation Actions Goal 1: Mitigate the effects of extreme weather by instituting programs that provide early warning and preparation. Goal 2: Educate people about the dangers of extreme weather and how to prepare. Goal 3: Develop practical measures to warn in the event of severe weather. Project Possible Responsible Support Estimated Action Description Timeframe/ Funding Status Party Parties Project Cost Duration Sources Research and consider implementing National Weather Service “Storm Ready” City 2019/ Research is complete. The Planning Department will consider whether to implement this action in SW‐1 program. City Planner NOAA $5,000 Budget, Ongoing 2019 with City Council support. NOAA Conduct special awareness activities, such as Winter Weather Awareness Week, Flood City SW‐2 Awareness Week, etc. City Planner NOAA Ongoing $500 Budget, The City will prioritize this in 2019 with City Council support. NOAA Expand public awareness about NOAA Weather Radio for continuous weather City 2020/ SW‐3 broadcasts and warning tone alert capability. City Planner NOAA $1,000 Budget, KCHU provides complete NOAA forecasts three times a day. Ongoing NOAA Encourage weather resistant building materials and practices. City 2018/ SW‐4 City Planner NOAA $0 Budget, Complete. The Building Inspector suggests this to all applicants. Ongoing NOAA
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146 Table 43—2008 Tsunami/Seiche Mitigation Actions Goal 1: Increased public education about tsunamis and seiches. Goal 2: Tsunami Ready community designation. Goal 3: Develop accurate inundation maps for the Port of Valdez. Goal 4: Update Valdez Emergency Operations Plan. Project Possible Responsible Support Estimated Action Description Timeframe/ Funding Status Party Parties Project Cost Duration Sources Continued participation in the Tsunami Awareness Program. Participation in the Tsunami Ready program. Residents and visitors will be educated about the threat of tsunamis to the City of Valdez, as well as being informed about 2019/ NOAA The City and the Museum have annual speakers on the subject and are responsible for information T/S‐1 tsunami evacuation areas, routes and safe areas. Community members will be City Planner NOAA $5,000 Ongoing DHS&EM booths at public events. encouraged to develop a Family Disaster Plan and an Emergency Survival Kit for their home and vehicles. The City has the educational materials for a proactive public awareness campaign. Continued participation Tsunami Ready Community Designation. Tsunami Ready community designation. Participate in the NWS/WC&ATWC Tsunami Ready Program. The City of Valdez is actively pursuing Tsunami Ready Certification. The Tsunami Ready Community program promotes tsunami hazard preparedness as an 2019/ NOAA T/S‐2 active collaboration among Federal, State, and local emergency management agencies, City Planner NOAA $5,000 The tsunami warning system is tested every Wednesday at 5 pm. Ongoing DHS&EM the public, and the NWS tsunami warning system. This collaboration supports better and more consistent tsunami awareness and mitigation efforts among communities at risk. The main goal is improvement of public safety during tsunami emergencies. An annual evaluation is necessary. Obtain tsunami inundation maps for the Port of Valdez. As stated earlier the National Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) identified Valdez as a participant in the tsunami inundation‐mapping project, which will help refine DHS&EM evacuation areas. The State of Alaska Department of Natural Resources Division of T/S‐3 City Planner DCRA Complete Unknown Complete This mitigation action has been completed but is awaiting further information from the DGGS study. Geological and Geophysical Services has produced an inundation map for the Port of FEMA Valdez. The Potential Maximum Permanent Flooding map was created in 2017 and provides up‐to‐date accurate information. This map will be used for better evacuation route planning, new zoning or rezoning and emergency planning. Update Emergency Operations Plan Update Emergency Operations Plan as mapping and other geological information 2019/ The new Emergency Manager is updating the plan in 2018 and the plan is expected to be finished in T/S‐4 City Planner NOAA $25,000 becomes available. This is an ongoing dynamic process. The last complete update was Ongoing DHS&EM 2019. in 2011, and it was partially updated in 2016.
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148 Table 44—2018 Volcano Mitigation Actions Goal 1: None. Not included as a hazard in the 2008 plan. Project Estimated Possible Responsible Support Action Description Timeframe/ Project Funding Status Party Parties Duration Cost Sources Valdez experienced ash fall of significant quantities in the fall of 1992 and in the spring City of V‐1 of 2007. Consider having masks available to vulnerable populations. City Planner Valdez Fire 2018 $1,000 City Budget New Mitigation Action for 2018 Department Update public emergency notification procedures and emergency planning for ash fall Emergency V‐2 City Planner 2019 $1,000 City Budget New Mitigation Action for 2018 events. Operations Evaluate vulnerability of water and electric power systems to ash falls and mitigate Power Plant 2019/ V‐3 City Planner $5,000 City Budget The systems have filters. Seven wells are underground (submersible), and one well is aboveground. risks when cost effective. Owners Ongoing
Table 45—2008 Wildland Fire Mitigation Actions Goal 1: Establish building regulations to mitigate against fire damage. Goal 2: Conduct outreach activities to encourage the use of Fire Wise Development techniques. Goal 3: Encourage the evaluation of emergency plans with respect to wildland fire assessment. Goal 4: Acquire information on the danger of wildland fires and how best to prepare. Project Estimated Possible Responsible Support Action Description Timeframe/ Project Funding Status Party Parties Duration Cost Sources Continue to support the fire department with adequate firefighting equipment and Valdez Fire 2019/ City Budget WF‐1 City Planner $100,000 Complete/Ongoing. training. Department Ongoing DOF Promote Fire Wise building design, siting and materials for construction. Code The Alaska Fire Wise Program is designed to educate people about wildland fire risks Valdez Fire 2018/ WF‐2 Enforcement $5,000 City Budget Complete/Ongoing. and mitigation opportunities. It is part of a national program that is operated by the Department Ongoing Officer Alaska Wildfire Coordinating Group (AWCG). Continue to enforce building codes and requirements for new construction. Code Valdez Fire 2018/ $80,000/ WF‐3 The City will be hiring a Code Enforcement Officer in 2018. Enforcement City Budget The City will post for this position in June 2018. Department Ongoing Annually Officer Enhance public awareness of potential risk to life and personal property. Encourage Code Valdez Fire 2018/ City Budget The Fire Department is represented at every City‐hosted event, and they always educate the public WF‐4 mitigation measures in the immediate vicinity of their property. Enforcement $5,000 Department Ongoing DOF about fire risks and how they can reduce the danger on their property. Officer
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150 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION V PLAN MAINTENANCE
151 5.0 Plan Maintenance 5.1 Introduction The Plan Maintenance section of this City of Valdez 2018 HMP describes the formal process that will ensure the Plan remains an effective and relevant document. This section establishes the method and schedule for monitoring, evaluating, and updating the HMP during a five‐year plan revision cycle. It also establishes how the City of Valdez will maintain community involvement in the Plan.
The HMP will be updated every five years, after a Federally‐Declared Disaster, or as required by DHS&EM. The schedule for the HMP update is to start the following tasks before the end of the five‐year cycle shown in Figure 21. The City Planning Director is the responsible City employee assigned to this task.
Figure 21—Hazard Mitigation Planning Cycle
Year 1 Year 5
State and FEMA review HMP. Revise Beginning of 5‐year Cycle: HMP was the plan if necessary. Return to City approved by State and FEMA, and Council for adoption. adopted by City Council Resolution.
Year 2
Annual review of HMP and report to City Year 4 Council.
Review HMP, develop planning process, and begin update.
Year 3
First Quarter: Contact DHS&EM regarding plan update funding and procedures. Third Quarter: Contract for technical or professional services (if applicable). Fourth Quarter: Annual review of HMP and report to City Council.
152 1. Plan Maintenance Approach
Incorporate hazard mitigation into existing planning mechanisms. Determine how mitigation projects and actions will be monitored. Establish indicators of effectiveness or success. Develop an evaluation and revision schedule to ensure the HMP is current at the end of the five‐year cycle. Establish a process for internal input and review from City Departments. Establish a process for public input and community involvement during the planning cycle.
2. FEMA Requirements Addressed in this Section
The City of Valdez created the plan maintenance strategy consistent with the process and steps presented in FEMA’s Local Mitigation Planning Handbook (March 2013). As outlined in the Handbook the plan maintenance strategy is designed to: Ensure that the mitigation strategy is implemented according to the plan. Provide the foundation for an ongoing mitigation program in your community. Standardize long‐term monitoring of hazard‐related activities. Integrate mitigation principles into community officials’ daily job responsibilities and department roles. Maintain momentum through continued engagement and accountability in the plan’s progress.
The following FEMA requirements are addressed in this section:
Requirement §201.6(c)(4)(i): The plan maintenance process shall include a section describing the method and schedule of monitoring, evaluating, and updating the mitigation plan within a five‐year cycle.
Requirement §201.6(c)(4)(ii): The plan shall include a process by which local government incorporate the requirements of the mitigation plan into other planning mechanisms such as comprehensive or capital improvement plans, where appropriate.
Requirement §201.6(c)(4)(iii): The plan maintenance process shall include a discussion on how the community will continue public participation in the plan maintenance process.
153 3. Monitoring The Planning and Zoning Commission with staff support from the Community Development Department of the City of Valdez will take the lead role in monitoring the implementation of the mitigation actions identified in the Plan. To facilitate HMP maintenance, the Community Development Director is designated as the staff member to serve as the City’s Hazard Mitigation Coordinator (HMC). The HMC will be the point of contact for natural hazard mitigation‐related issues and serve as the lead coordinator on the HMP revision. The Valdez City Manager will designate a working group to assist in overseeing HMP updates. This working group will include the members of the City’s executive management team. Further, the staff of the Community Development Department will support the HMC and working group in monitoring and evaluating the HMP. During the five‐year planning cycle, the HMC will undertake the following initiatives:
Collect annual reports from the departments or organizations involved in implementing mitigation projects or activities identified in the Mitigation Strategy section of this HMP. Maintain and update the Mitigation Action Table. Conduct site visits and obtain reports of completed or initiated mitigation actions to incorporate in the HMP revision as needed. Research and document new natural disaster information pertaining to Valdez during the planning cycle and incorporate into a revised Risk Assessment section as needed. Organize annual (or more frequent as necessary) meetings with the Planning and Zoning Commission to discuss relevant hazard mitigation issues, provide status updates, and discuss viable grant opportunities. Convene a meeting of the Planning and Zoning Commission following a natural disaster to assess whether updates to the Plan are necessary based on lessons learned from the disaster. Convene meetings of the Planning and Zoning Commission to prioritize and submit potential mitigation actions for funding through the Strategic Plan Milestone process, the Capital Improvement Project Budget process, the annual City of Valdez Budget process, or when the State of Alaska offers grant funding for mitigation programs and projects.
The HMC will be responsible for compiling, documenting and incorporating all changes derived from the activities listed above into an updated HMP.
154 4. Evaluation The Valdez HMP will be evaluated annually to determine the effectiveness of its projects, programs, and policies. The HMC will be responsible for scheduling and organizing the meetings, collecting, analyzing and incorporating annual reports, and providing revised drafts to the Planning and Zoning Commission. Each year, the HMC and Planning and Zoning Commission will assess the current version of the Plan and determine the improvements necessary for the HMP update. The HMC will develop a process for public review of annual revisions.
A thorough examination of the HMP will take place during the fifth year (May 2022‐May 2023) of the process to ensure Valdez has an Updated HMP at the end of the planning cycle. The Planning & Zoning Commission and Working Group will review the goals and action items to determine their relevance to changing situations in the community, as well as changes in state or federal policy, and to ensure they are addressing current and expected conditions. The PZC and WG will look at any changes in City resources that may influence the Plan implementation (such as funding or staff changes) and program changes to determine need for reassignment. The PZC will review all portions of the HMP to determine if this information should be updated or modified, given any new available data. The PZC will evaluate the content of the HMP using the following criteria:
Are the mitigation actions effective? Are there any changes in land or waterfront development that effect mitigation priorities? Do the goal, objectives, and action items meet social, technical, administrative, political, legal, economic, and environmental criteria as defined in FEMA’s STAPLEE analysis? Are the goals, objectives, and mitigation actions relevant given any changes in Valdez? Are the goals, objectives, and mitigation actions relevant given any changes to state or federal regulations or policy? Is there any new data that affects the Risk Assessment portion of the HMP?
5. Update The Planning & Zoning Commission will update the HMP every five years to reflect the results of the annual reports and on‐going plan evaluation by the Hazard Mitigation Coordinator. Throughout the planning cycle, the HMC will compile new information and incorporate it into the HMP. The HMC will also assess and incorporate recommended comments expressed by FEMA and the State of Alaska DHS&EM in the initial review of the HMP revision. At the end of the Planning Cycle, the PZC will submit the Updated HMP to DHS&EM and FEMA for review. After FEMA has approved the HMP, the City will again formally adopt the Plan by Resolution.
6. Incorporation into Existing Planning Mechanisms As part of the local capability assessment conducted during the planning process, the Planning and Zoning Commission identified current plans, programs, policies, sections of the Valdez Municipal Code, and studies/reports that will augment or help support mitigation planning efforts. At least annually, the Planning and Zoning Committee will convene to ensure the City of Valdez integrates natural hazard mitigation into its future planning activities. The City of Valdez capability assessment is located in Section 2. Following the HMP approval and adoption, the
155 Planning and Zoning Commission will work to incorporate, where applicable, the HMP into the planning mechanisms identified in Table 2 of Section 2: Planning.
Throughout the plan maintenance cycle, the Planning and Zoning Commission and HMC will work to integrate hazard mitigation goals and actions into the general operations of City departments. Through City Administration and the City Council, the Planning and Zoning Commission and HMC will work with departments to identify opportunities as outlined below:
Update work plans, policies, or procedures to include hazard mitigation concepts. Establish mitigation funding within capital, major maintenance, and operational budgets. Issue plans, policies, resolutions, code revision ordinances, or other directives to carry out mitigation actions. Add hazard mitigation elements to redevelopment plans.
7. Continuing Review and Plan Development The Valdez HMP will be reviewed on an annual basis to determine whether the plan reflects the current situation in regards to natural hazards.
The HMP will be available for public review, and input will be accepted by the City Planning Department. Below is a list of the places where the plan will be available to the public.
1. City website http://www.ci.valdez.ak.us/. 2. A hard copy will be kept in the Planning Department at City Hall. 3. On an annual basis, the Planning Department will review the plan at an annual meeting following all public notice procedures. HMP Maintenance Forms are located in Appendix F. 4. Once a year in March, a natural hazard survey will be included on the City’s webpage. A reminder link will be included on the water bill. Received surveys will be compiled in a folder and included in the annual report and considered during future plan updates. See Appendix F for survey.
8. Continued Public Involvement The City of Valdez is dedicated to continued public involvement in the hazard mitigation planning and review process. During all phases of plan maintenance, the public will have the opportunity to provide feedback. The 2018 Plan will be maintained and available for review on the City of Valdez website. Individuals will have an opportunity to submit comments for the Plan update at any time by email. The HMC will compile all comments and present them to the Planning & Zoning Commission regularly for consideration for incorporation into the revision. To help publicize the Plan revision, a media campaign, including the City web page, local radio and newspaper advertisements will begin airing the beginning of November. The PZC will hold public hearings to take input on the proposed revisions. Members of community organizations and groups will be given individual invitations to participate and will be provided copies of the proposed plan revision to review.
156 157 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION VI PLAN ADOPTION
158 6.0 Formal Adoption Formal plan adoption is a required part of the planning process and demonstrates the commitment by the City of Valdez to fulfilling the mitigation goals and objectives outlined in the HMP. In addition to fulfilling the requirements of the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000, the City Council adoption of the HMP establishes it as a policy for the City that defines the actions departments should take to comply with or implement the HMP.
1. Plan Adoption Process. 2. Obtain approval of the final pre‐approved version from the Valdez City Council. 3. Obtain “Record of Approval” from DHS&EM. 4. Obtain “Approval Pending Adoption” from FEMA. 5. Draft an adoption resolution to meet plan requirements and demonstrate the commitment by the City of Valdez to protect its residents and the built environment from the effects of natural hazards. 6. Adopt City of Valdez 2018 HMP through resolution approved by the Valdez City Council.
159 Local Adoption Resolution
Insert copy of local adoption resolution here.
160 FEMA Approval Letter
Insert copy of FEMA Approval Letter here.
161 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
SECTION VII BIBLIOGRAPHY
162 7.0 Bibliography Alaska State Hazard Plan. Prepared by and for DHS&EM. 2013.
Alpine Woods Estates Detailed Flood Evaluation; 1984; provided recommendations to make this area of Valdez less prone to flood hazards.
Anchorage Daily News, Snowstorm triggers avalanche in Thompson Pass, closing road to Valdez, December 7, 2017.
Avalanche Hazard Evaluation & Mitigation Recommendations for Town Mountain and Duck Flats Avalanche Areas; evaluated avalanche hazards and recommended mitigation actions.
Avalanche Hazard Phase 2 Report, Supplemental Avalanche Dynamics Analysis and Mitigation Design for the Porcupine Street Avalanche Area; evaluated avalanche hazard for the Porcupine Street area and recommended mitigation design.
City of Valdez Local Hazards Mitigation Plan. Prepared by Bechtol Planning & Development, 2008.
Draft City of Valdez Emergency Operation Plan. Prepared by the City of Valdez on August 15, 2008.
City of Valdez Comprehensive Plan. Prepared by the City of Valdez in December 2007.
Cvea.org/resources/pdfs/ruralite2/pg4Augst11DamSafety.pdf; provided information on Copper Valley Electric Association’s Solomon Gulch Hydroelectric Project in Valdez.
Community of Valdez Strategic Plan 2013‐2018. Prepared by the City of Valdez.
DHS&EM Cost Disaster Index; 2016; lists State and FEMA declared disasters for Alaska.
Effects of the Earthquake of March 27, 1964 at Valdez, Alaska – A Geological Survey Professional Paper written in 1966. Written by Henry W. Coulter and Robert R. Migliaccio.
Evaluation of Stream Stability in the Valdez, Alaska Area; 1989; detailed the flood potentials of Lowe River, Valdez Glacier Creek and Mineral Creek.
Flood Insurance Manual. Prepared by the National Flood Insurance Program. April 2017, and revised in April 2018.
163 164 List of Maps
Map 1. Location Map Map 2. Ownership Map Map 3. FEMA Flood Zones Map 4. Coastal Habitats Map 5. Mineral Creek Flats and Canyon Map 6. Old Town Area Map 7. Lowe River Map 8. Valdez Glacier Lake and Stream Map 9. Avalanche Zones
165
167 168 169
172 173 174 APPENDICES
City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
APPENDIX A ACRONYM LIST
ACRONYM LIST
Acronym List Acronym Definition
ADOT&PF Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities APSC Alyeska Pipeline Service Company AVO Alaska Volcano Observatory BCA Benefit Cost Analysis BCR Benefit Cost Ratio BFE Base Flood Elevation (100 Year Flood) CAP Continuing Authorities Program CDBG Community Development Block Grant CEDD Community & Economic Development Department (City of Valdez) CERT Community Emergency Response Team CFR Code of Federal Regulations CFS Cubic Feet per Second CVEA Copper Valley Electric Association CVTC Copper Valley Telephone Cooperative DCRA Division of Community and Regional Affairs (State of Alaska) DCCED Department of Commerce, Community & Economic Development (State of AK) DGGS Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys DHS&EM Division of Homeland Security & Emergency Management (State of Alaska) DMA 2000 Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 EMS Emergency Management System ℉ Degrees Fahrenheit FDIC Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission FHLBB Federal Home Loan Bank Board FIRM Flood Insurance Rate Map FIS Flood Insurance Study FPS Feet per Second ‘ feet GDP Glennallen Diesel Plant GPM Gallons per minute HMC Hazard Mitigation Coordinator HMP Hazard Mitigation Plan HMGP Hazard Mitigation Grant Program HMPG Hazard Mitigation Planning Grant “ inches IBC International Building Code IRC International Residential Code Kg/m Kilograms per meter KT Knot Lbs/ft Pounds per foot M Magnitude Mw Moment magnitude
ACRONYM LIST MP Mile Post MMI Modified Mercalli Intensity MPH Miles per Hour m/s² Meters per Second Squared NFIP National Flood Insurance Program NOAA National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration NWS National Weather Service NYC New York City PAS Planning Assistance to States PDMG Pre-Disaster Mitigation Grant PGA Peak Ground Acceleration PVMC Providence Valdez Medical Center PWSCC Prince William Sound Community College PZC Planning & Zoning Commission (City of Valdez) REAA Regional Educational Attendance Area RWIS Road Weather Information System SA Spectral Acceleration SBA Small Business Administration SCADA Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition SGHP Solomon Gulch Hydroelectric Project T/S Tsunami/Seiche Projects UAF/GI University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute USACE United States Army Corps of Engineers USCG United States Coast Guard USFS United States Forest Service USGS United States Geological Survey VDP Valdez Diesel Plant VFD Valdez Fire Department VPD Valdez Police Department WSO Weather Service Office
ACRONYM LIST City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
APPENDIX B GLOSSARY
Glossary of Terms
A-Zones Type of zone found on all Flood Hazard Boundary Maps (FHBMs), Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and Flood Boundary and Floodway Maps (FBFMs).
Acquisition Local governments can acquire lands in high hazard areas through conservation easements, purchase of development rights, or outright purchase of property.
Asset Any manmade or natural feature that has value, including, but not limited to people; buildings; infrastructure like bridges, roads, and sewer and water systems; lifelines like electricity and communication resources; or environmental, cultural, or recreational features like parks, dunes, wetlands, or landmarks.
Base Flood A term used in the National Flood Insurance Program to indicate the minimum size of a flood. This information is used by a community as a basis for its floodplain management regulations. It is the level of a flood, which has a one-percent chance of occurring in any given year. Also known as a 100-year flood elevation or one-percent chance flood.
Base Flood Elevation (BFE) The elevation for which there is a one-percent chance in any given year that flood water levels will equal or exceed it. The BFE is determined by statistical analysis for each local area and designated on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps. It is also known as 100-year flood elevation.
Base Floodplain The area that has a one percent chance of flooding (being inundated by flood waters) in any given year.
Building A structure that is walled and roofed, principally above ground and permanently affixed to a site. The term includes a manufactured home on a permanent foundation on which the wheels and axles carry no weight.
Building Code The regulations adopted by a local governing body setting forth standards for the construction, addition, modification, and repair of buildings and other structures for the purpose of protecting the health, safety, and general welfare of the public.
Community Any state, area or political subdivision thereof, or any Indian tribe or tribal entity that has the authority to adopt and enforce statutes for areas within its jurisdiction.
Community Rating System (CRS) The Community Rating System is a voluntary program that each municipality or county government can choose to participate in. The activities that are undertaken through CRS are awarded points. A community’s points can earn people in their community a discount on their flood insurance premiums.
Critical Facility Facilities that are critical to the health and welfare of the population and that are especially important during and after a hazard event. Critical facilities include, but are not limited to, shelters, hospitals, and fire stations.
Designated Floodway The channel of a stream and that portion of the adjoining floodplain designated by a regulatory agency to be kept free of further development to provide for unobstructed passage of flood flows.
Development Any man-made change to improved or unimproved real estate, including but not limited to buildings or other structures, mining, dredging, filling, grading, paving, excavation or drilling operations or of equipment or materials.
Digitize To convert electronically points, lines, and area boundaries shown on maps into x, y coordinates (e.g., latitude and longitude, universal transverse Mercator (UTM), or table coordinates) for use in computers.
Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA) DMA 2000 (public Law 106-390) is the latest legislation of 2000 (DMA 2000) to improve the planning process. It was signed into law on October 10, 2000. This new legislation reinforces the importance of mitigation planning and emphasizes planning for disasters before they occur.
Earthquake A sudden motion or trembling that is caused by a release of strain accumulated within or along the edge of the earth’s tectonic plates. Elevation The raising of a structure to place it above flood waters on an extended support structure.
Emergency Operations Plan A document that: describes how people and property will be protected in disaster and disaster threat situations; details who is responsible for carrying out specific actions; identifies the personnel, equipment, facilities, supplies, and other resources available for use in the disaster; and outlines how all actions will be coordinated.
Erosion The wearing away of the land surface by running water, wind, ice, or other geological agents.
Federal Disaster Declaration The formal action by the President to make a State eligible for major disaster or emergency assistance under the Robert T. Stafford Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, Public Law 93-288, as amended. Same meaning as a Presidential Disaster Declaration.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) A federal agency created in 1979 to provide a single point of accountability for all federal activities related to hazard mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery.
Flood A general and temporary condition of partial or complete inundation of water over normally dry land areas from (1) the overflow of inland or tidal waters, (2) the unusual and rapid accumulation or runoff of surface waters from any source, or (3) mudflows or the sudden collapse of shoreline land.
Flood Disaster Assistance Flood disaster assistance includes development of comprehensive preparedness and recovery plans, program capabilities, and organization of Federal agencies and of State and local governments to mitigate the adverse effects of disastrous floods. It may include maximum hazard reduction, avoidance, and mitigation measures, as well policies, procedures, and eligibility criteria for Federal grant or loan assistance to State and local governments, private organizations, or individuals as the result of the major disaster. Flood Elevation Elevation of the water surface above an establish datum (reference mark), e.g. National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, North American Datum of 1988, or Mean Sea Level.
Flood Hazard Flood Hazard is the potential for inundation and involves the risk of life, health, property, and natural value. Two reference bases are commonly used: (1) For most situations, the Base Flood is that flood which has a one-percent chance of being exceeded in any given year (also known as the 100-year flood); (2) for critical actions, an activity for which a one- percent chance of flooding would be too great, at a minimum the base flood is that flood which has a 0.2 percent chance of being exceeded in any given year (also known as the 500-year flood).
Flood Insurance Rate Map Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) means an official map of a community, on which the Administrator has delineated both the special hazard areas and the risk premium zones applicable to the community.
Flood Insurance Study Flood Insurance Study or Flood Elevation Study means an examination, evaluation and determination of flood hazards and, if appropriate, corresponding water surface elevations, or an examination, evaluations and determination of mudslide (i.e., mudflow) and/or flood-related’ erosion hazards.
Floodplain A "floodplain" is the lowland adjacent to a river, lake, or ocean. Floodplains are designated by the frequency of the flood that is large enough to cover them. For example, the 10-year floodplain will be covered by the 10-year flood. The 100-year floodplain by the 100-year flood.
Floodplain Management The operation of an overall program of corrective and preventive measures for reducing flood damage, including but not limited to emergency preparedness plans, flood control works and floodplain management regulations.
Floodplain Management Regulations Floodplain Management Regulations means zoning ordinances, subdivision regulations, building codes, health regulations, special purpose ordinances (such as floodplain ordinance, grading ordinance and erosion control ordinance) and other applications of police power. The term describes such state or local regulations, in any combination thereof, which provide standards for the purpose of flood damage prevention and reduction.
Flood Zones Zones on the Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) in which a Flood Insurance Study has established the risk premium insurance rates.
Flood Zone Symbols A - Area of special flood hazard without water surface elevations determined. A1-30 - AE Area of special flood hazard with water surface elevations determined. AO - Area of special flood hazard having shallow water depths and/or unpredictable flow paths between one and three feet. A-99 - Area of special flood hazard where enough progress has been made on a protective system, such as dikes, dams, and levees, to consider it complete for insurance rating purposes. AH - Area of special flood hazard having shallow water depths and/or unpredictable flow paths between one and three feet and with water surface elevations determined. B - X Area of moderate flood hazard. C - X Area of minimal hazard. D - Area of undetermined but possible flood hazard.
Geographic Information System A computer software application that relates physical features of the earth to a database that can be used for mapping and analysis.
Governing Body The legislative body of a municipality that is the assembly of a borough or the council of a city.
Hazard A source of potential danger or adverse condition. Hazards in the context of this plan will include naturally occurring events such as floods, earthquakes, tsunami, coastal storms, landslides, and wildfires that strike populated areas. A natural event is a hazard when it has the potential to harm people or property.
Hazard Event A specific occurrence of a particular type of hazard.
Hazard Identification The process of identifying hazards that threaten an area. Hazard Mitigation Any action taken to reduce or eliminate the long-term risk to human life and property from natural hazards (44 CFR Subpart M 206.401).
Hazard Mitigation Grant Program The program authorized under section 404 of the Stafford Act, which may provide funding for mitigation measures identified through the evaluation of natural hazards conducted under §322 of the Disaster Mitigation Act 2000.
Hazard Profile A description of the physical characteristics of hazards and a determination of various descriptors including magnitude, duration, frequency, probability, and extent. In most cases, a community can most easily use these descriptors when they are recorded and displayed as maps.
Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis The identification and evaluation of all the hazards that potentially threaten a jurisdiction and analyzing them in the context of the jurisdiction to determine the degree of threat that is posed by each.
Mitigate To cause something to become less harsh or hostile, to make less severe or painful.
Mitigation Plan A systematic evaluation of the nature and extent of vulnerability to the effects of natural hazards typically present in the State and includes a description of actions to minimize future vulnerability to hazards.
National Flood Insurance The Federal program, created by an act of Congress in Program (NFIP) 1968 that makes flood insurance available in communities that enact satisfactory floodplain management regulations.
One Hundred (100)-Year The flood elevation that has a one-percent chance of occurring in any given year. It is also known as the Base Flood.
Planning The act or process of making or carrying out plans; the establishment of goals, policies, and procedures for a social or economic unit.
Repetitive Loss Property A property that is currently insured for which two or more National Flood Insurance Program losses (occurring more than ten days apart) of at least $1000 each have been paid within any 10-year period since 1978.
Risk The estimated impact that a hazard would have on people, services, facilities, and structures in a community; the likelihood of a hazard event resulting in an adverse condition that causes injury or damage. Risk is often expressed in relative terms such as a high, moderate, or low likelihood of sustaining damage above a particular threshold due to a specific type of hazard event. It can also be expressed in terms of potential monetary losses associated with the intensity of the hazard.
Riverine Relating to, formed by, or resembling rivers (including tributaries), streams, creeks, brooks, etc.
Riverine Flooding Flooding related to or caused by a river, stream, or tributary overflowing its banks due to excessive rainfall, snowmelt or ice.
Runoff That portion of precipitation that is not intercepted by vegetation, absorbed by land surface, or evaporated, and thus flows overland into a depression, stream, lake, or ocean (runoff, called immediate subsurface runoff, also takes place in the upper layers of soil).
Seiche An oscillating wave (also referred to as a seismic sea wave) in a partially or fully enclosed body of water. May be initiated by landslides, undersea landslides, long period seismic waves, wind and water waves, or a tsunami.
Seismicity Describes the likelihood of an area being subject to earthquakes.
State Disaster Declaration A disaster emergency shall be declared by executive order or proclamation of the Governor upon finding that a disaster has occurred or that the occurrence or the threat of a disaster is imminent. The state of disaster emergency shall continue until the governor finds that the threat or danger has passed or that the disaster has been dealt with to the extent that emergency conditions no longer exist and terminates the state of disaster emergency by executive order or proclamation. Along with other provisions, this declaration allows the governor to utilize all available resources of the State as reasonably necessary, direct and compel the evacuation of all or part of the population from any stricken or threatened area if necessary, prescribe routes, modes of transportation and destinations in connection with evacuation and control ingress and egress to and from disaster areas. It is required before a Presidential Disaster Declaration can be requested.
Topography The contour of the land surface. The technique of graphically representing the exact physical features of a place or region on a map.
Tribal Government A Federally recognized governing body of an Indian or Alaska native Tribe, band, nation, pueblo, village or community that the Secretary of the Interior acknowledges to exist as an Indian tribe under the Federally Recognized Tribe List Act of 1994, 25 U.S.C. 479a. This does not include Alaska Native corporations, the ownership of which is vested in private individuals.
Tsunami A sea wave produced by submarine earth movement or volcanic eruption with a sudden rise or fall of a section of the earth's crust under or near the ocean. A seismic disturbance or landslide can displace the water column, creating a rise or fall in the level of the ocean above. This rise or fall in sea level is the initial formation of a tsunami wave.
Vulnerability Describes how exposed or susceptible to damage an asset it. Vulnerability depends on an asset’s construction, contents, and the economic value of its functions. The vulnerability of one element of the community is often related to the vulnerability of another. For example, many businesses depend on uninterrupted electrical power – if an electrical substation is flooded, it will affect not only the substation itself, but a number of businesses as well. Other, indirect effects can be much more widespread and damaging than direct ones.
Vulnerability Assessment The extent of injury and damage that may result from hazard event of a given intensity in a given area. The vulnerability assessment should address impacts of hazard events on the existing and future built environment.
Watercourse A natural or artificial channel in which a flow of water occurs either continually or intermittently. Watershed An area that drains to a single point. In a natural basin, this is the area contributing flow to a given place or stream.
City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan
APPENDIX C PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT DOCUMENTATION
Hazard Mitigation Plan Update for Valdez, Alaska Newsletter #1: January 21, 2018
The State of Alaska, Department of Military and Veterans Affairs, Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management (DHS&EM) was awarded a Pre-Disaster Mitigation Program grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to update the 2008 hazard mitigation plan (HMP) for the City of Valdez. This plan will assist Valdez as a valuable resource tool in making decisions. Additionally, communities must have a State- and FEMA-approved and community-adopted HMP plan to receive FEMA pre- and post- disaster grants.
LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. was contracted to assist the City with preparing a 2018 HMP update. The HMP will identify all applicable natural hazards. The plan will identify the population and facilities potentially at risk and actions to mitigate damage from future hazard impacts.
The purpose of this newsletter is to introduce this project and encourage public involvement during this process. The goal is to receive comments, identify key issues or concerns, and improve mitigation ideas.
Attend the January 24, 2018, Work Session at 6:00 pm at City Hall: The agenda will be a summary of the hazard mitigation plan process by Patrick LeMay, PE. You’re invited to provide input to the planning process. Specifically, we’ll be discussing which natural hazards are realistic for your community. Also, what facilities are critical to your community? What mitigation actions should be implemented to prevent damage from potential hazards?
For more information, contact: Rochelle Rollenhagen (907) 834-3451 Patrick LeMay, PE, Planner (907) 250-9038 Jennifer LeMay, PE, PMP, Lead Planner (907) 350-6061 Brent Nichols, DMVA, DHS&EM Project Manager (907) 428-7085 Valdez Hazard Mitigation Plan City Department Head Meeting
January 24, 2018
1 :30 pm at City Hall
Name Organization Contact Information (phone or email)
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January 24, 2018
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January 24, 2018
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City of Valdez January 24, 2018 Patrick M. LeMay, PE How and Why LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. is involved in the City of Valdez Hazard Mitigation Plan Update?
LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. was hired by the State of Alaska Department of Homeland Security & Emergency Management to assist communities within the State of Alaska with their Hazard Mitigation Plan Updates. Hazard Mitigation Planning Process
Updates to existing plans Plans must be updated every five years and approved by DHS&EM and FEMA and then adopted by the community by resolution for the community to remain eligible for FEMA grant funding. January 24, 2018 Public Mitigation Action Planning Meeting Goals: 1) Review the 2008 Mitigation Actions and provide progress updates for each action.
2) Review the proposed new Mitigation Actions to determine if they are actionable items the community would like to include In the 2018 Hazard Mitigation Plan Update. Which hazards are applicable for your community?
FEMA Hazards Valdez HMP Update Flood Flood/Erosion Erosion Severe Weather Wildland Fire Earthquake Tsunami/Seiche Tsunami/Seiche Earthquake Avalanche/Landslide Volcano Volcano Avalanche Wildland Fire Ground Failure/Landslide Dam Failure Permafrost Degradation Climate Change Severe Weather Technological (1989 Exxon Valdez Spill) Climate Change 2008 Mitigation Action Review
See Handout 2018 Proposed Mitigation Actions
See Handout This is a public process. Everyone who wants to be involved will be given the opportunity to be involved in this process. Send Rochelle Rollenhagen an email if you’d like more information at [email protected] or call her at (907) 834-3451.
We welcome public input and will have a public comment hearing at a public meeting for you to provide input on the plan. Patrick M. LeMay, P.E. President 4272 Chelsea Way Anchorage, AK 99504 (907) 250-9038 [email protected]
January 24, 2017
Brent A. Nichols, EMSII, CFM Emergency Management Specialist (EMS) II & Certified Floodplain Manager (CFM) Department of Military and Veterans Affairs (DMVA) Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management (DHS&EM) P.O. Box 5750 JBER, AK 99505-5750
Subject: Hazard Mitigation Planning Process Trip Report City of Valdez, Alaska
On January 24, 2018, Patrick M. LeMay, PE of LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. traveled to Valdez, Alaska. The purpose of this trip was to conduct an introductory meeting, review past and potential mitigation strategies, and update the critical facilities within the community. Two meetings were held in the City of Valdez.
One meeting occurred from 1:00 PM to 3:30 PM with City Staff which represents the Hazard Mitigation Planning Team:
Patrick M. LeMay, PE LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. Rochelle Rollenhagen Senior Planner (City of Valdez) Paul Nylund Senior Planning / GIS Technician (City of Valdez) Nathan Duval Capital Facilities Director (City of Valdez) Rob Comstock Public Works Director (City of Valdez) Bart Hinkle Chief of Police (City of Valdez) Andrew Keeton Small Boat Harbor (City of Valdez) Sheri Pierce City Clerk (City of Valdez)
This meeting time was used to update the 2008 Mitigation Strategies and Actions. Ms. Rollenhagen took notes as Patrick LeMay facilitated the meeting to draw out Mitigation Actions implemented and their statuses during the last 10-years by the community.
From 6:00 PM to 7:00 PM was a Planning and Zoning work session devoted to Future Mitigation Action ideas. Six of the seven Commissioners were present; a total of 17 people from the community were in attendance.
If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to call me at (907) 250-9038.
1/24/18 Patrick M. LeMay, P.E./Date LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. Hazard Mitigation Plan Update for Valdez, Alaska Newsletter #2: May 1, 2018
LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. was contracted to assist Valdez with preparing a 2018 HMP update. The HMP will identify all applicable natural hazards. The plan will identify the people and facilities potentially at risk and ways to mitigate damage from future hazard impacts.
Offer your comments on the Draft HMP Update: The goal of Newsletter #2 is to announce the availability of the draft update and invite you to provide comments, identify key issues or concerns, and improve mitigation ideas. This plan has been posted at the Valdez City Office Planning Department for your review. Comments can be provided verbally to Rochelle Rollenhagen at (907) 834-3451 or emailed to: [email protected].
Attend the Wednesday, May 9, Workshop at 6 pm or the Planning & Zoning Commission Meeting in Council Chambers at 7 pm. The Workshop will be devoted to the Draft HMP Update. One of the agenda items at the PZC meeting will be a summary of the Draft Plan Update by Jennifer LeMay. You can request a copy of the plan be emailed to you now by emailing [email protected]. The plan is also available on the City’s webpage. You’re invited to provide input to the plan and can present your comments verbally. We’ll be discussing:
• 2018 Plan Hazards, which include:
o Avalanche, o Dam Failure, o Earthquake, o Flood and Erosion, o Landslide, o Severe Weather, o Tsunami, o Volcano, o Wildfire.
What would be your top three hazards from the above list?
• Critical Infrastructure • Vulnerability Overview • Mitigation Projects
For more information, contact: Rochelle Rollenhagen, City of Valdez Planning Director (907) 834-3451 Patrick LeMay, PE, Planner (907) 250-9038 Jennifer LeMay, PE, PMP, Lead Planner (907) 350-6061 Brent Nichols, DMVA, DHS&EM Project Manager (907) 428-7085 Search
City Council Work Session: Physican Recruitment & Retention City Council will hold a work session on Tuesday, May 8th at 6pm in Council Chambers. The purpose of the work session is to discuss a potential physician recruitment and retention program for Valdez. All Council work sessions are open to the public. Click to View Agenda... Draft Valdez Natural Disaster Hazard Mitigation Plan The Community Development Dept. and Planning & Zoning Commission seek public input on the COV Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan Update at the May 9th P&Z meeting. The update assesses natural hazard risks & identifies funding options for mitigation projects. Click to View the Draft Update... Final 2018 Municipal Election Results City Council will certify election results May 2nd. Newly elected School Board members will be sworn in during the School Board meeting on May 14th. Newly elected City Council members & the Mayor will be sworn in during the Council meeting on May 15th. Click to View Results... The Parks & Recreation 2018 Summer Fun Guide is available online! Read on...
Home | Contact Us | News | Events | Sitemap | Accessibility | Disclaimers | Copyright | Powered by CivicPlus Draft Hazard Mitigation Plan Public Work Shop
May 9, 2018
6 pm at City Hall
Name Organization Contact Information (phone or email)
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550-&0(p\ J~ NN\sr~ 1.£ N\.A'l LeMA~ frJt11J£6<-\>.!C +GJJ~ 1.v&i:rNc -\ em @levno.y~ ~i'.:"1V ~ r--~~~~~~~-+-~~~~~~~-+-~~--,,7~_,_~~---;' CcJW. c -\ (_ tl C,07- ~ '1- q27 May 9, 2018 7 pm at City Hall Name Organization Contact Information (phone or email) Prepared by LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. for the Community of Valdez The City updated the previous HMP in 2008. FEMA requires HMPs to be updated every 5 years. The State of Alaska, Department of Military and Veterans Affairs, Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management (DHS&EM) was awarded a Pre-Disaster Mitigation Program grant from FEMA to assist the City in updating the HMP. LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. was contracted to assist the City with updating the HMP in 2017. Work started in November. HMPs are community plans which include: 1. Profiles of natural hazards that affect a community. 2. An assessment of the community’s vulnerability to hazards. 3. Mitigation actions to reduce the community’s vulnerability to hazards. Hazard profiles detail the: Nature of the hazard; History of the hazard’s impacts on the community; Location (proximity to the community); Extent (magnitude and severity); Impact on the community; and Probability of future events. The Valdez HMP Update identifies and profiles the following hazards: ◦ Avalanche ◦ Dam Failure ◦ Earthquakes ◦ Floods ◦ Landslides ◦ Severe Weather ◦ Tsunami ◦ Volcanic Ash ◦ Wildland Fire The Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys (DGGS) is working on an Avalanche Hazard Map. This map will be completed before the next HMP Update in 2023. This hazard has a highly likely probability of occurring per the 2013 Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan. The extent of this hazard could be critical in that injuries could result in permanent disability, complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two weeks, and more than 25% of property could be severely damaged. Mitigation Actions 1. Prohibit new construction in avalanche zones. (The City has an Avalanche Zoning District. Development and use within the District is limited to low-density, seasonal use). 2. The City will enact via code a public disclosure of the risk linked to deed or title of property and require owners to notify renters of potential hazards prior to occupancy. (This action will be implemented prior to 2023). 3. The City will use appropriate methods of structural avalanche control. (The City will develop mitigation actions after the DGGS map has been completed). 4. The City will continue to educate the public about avalanche hazards and support the Avalanche Awareness Center. (The City has supported the Center since 2012). The Solomon Gulch Hydroelectric Dam is a 12- Megawatt facility serving Valdez and the Copper Basin. The dam has no history of failure. If the dam failed, approximately 31,650 acre-feet of water would be released. This hazard has an unlikely probability of occurring per the 2013 Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan. The extent of this hazard could be critical in that injuries could result in permanent disability, complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two weeks, and more than 25% of property could be severely damaged. Mitigation Actions 1. The City is proposing the following mitigation action: Evaluate the dam’s structural integrity after a 5.0 Magnitude Earthquake within 100 miles of Valdez. Earthquakes have a likely probability of occurring in Valdez. The vulnerability zone includes the entire census area including the port. In 1964, there was a 9.2 Magnitude earthquake on Good Friday. The epicenter was located 30 miles from Valdez. 32 people died, and Old Town was destroyed. It took two to four years for the New Valdez to become home for Valdez residents. There are 11 major active fault systems within 150 miles of Valdez that are capable of producing earthquakes strong enough to affect Valdez. Mitigation Actions 1. Perform an engineering assessment of the earthquake vulnerability of each identified critical infrastructure owned by the City of Valdez. (The City has completed this action). 2. Contract a structural engineering firm to assess the identified buildings and facilities to determine their structural integrity and strategy to improve their earthquake resistance. Retrofit or upgrade critical structures as recommended by Structural Engineer. (The City will work to implement this mitigation action by 2023). 3. Identify buildings and facilities that must be able to remain operable during and following an earthquake event. (The City has replaced the old middle school gymnasium. The new gymnasium will be used as an evacuation center, is larger than the old one, and has an emergency generator). The City has participated in the NFIP since 1980. There are 36 insurance policies in place, and one repetitive loss property in Valdez. The City’s Flood Insurance Rate Maps were updated on December 1, 1983. The vulnerability zone in Valdez includes riverine and glacier-dammed outburst flooding on Glacier Stream, Lowe River, and Mineral Creek. Alpine Wood Subdivision and the Port/Harbor facilities are also susceptible. This hazard has a likely probability of occurrence. FEMA, RiskMAP, and Resilience Action Partners are currently working on a City of Valdez RiskMap Study. This study will be completed in 2019 and will include: ◦ A detailed coastal flood hazard analysis including the collection of storm surge (coastal hydrology) and overland wave height analysis (coastal hydraulics) as well as floodplain boundaries for 1-percent and 0.2-percent- annual chance (100- and 500-year) flood events. ◦ A riverine analysis will also be performed to include: hydrology and hydraulic modeling for 3.8 miles of Mineral Creek, 11.7 miles of Lowe River, 4.6 miles of Valdez Glacier Stream, 2.2 miles of Robe River, and 18.7 miles of various streams. ◦ The City’s Flood Insurance Rate Maps and floodplain delineations will be updated. Additionally, in February 2017, the City Council granted approval to enter into a Feasibility Cost Sharing Agreement with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) for a Section 22 Planning Assistance to States (PAS) Study. This study will be a small flood damage reduction project on Valdez Glacier Stream and Mineral Creek and should be completed before the 2023 HMP Update. The City is working with the USACE on a Continuing Authorities Program to design and construct a levy system to protect the Alpine Woods and Nordic Village subdivisions. DGGS is working on a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard Map. This study should be completed before the 2023 HMP Update. Mitigation Actions 1. Riprap Valdez Glacier Stream. Continue replacing and enhancing existing riprap barrier. (In 2016, the City constructed a revetment north of the bridge and plans to extend it to fill the gap between it and the ADOT project in Summer 2018. In 2016, the riprap was installed along the road to the landfill. The ADOT River Encroachment Project will armor the area along the Valdez Glacier Stream Bridge and will replace lost rip-rap along the bike path north of the bridge. In 2017, two new dikes were constructed downstream of the bridge.) 2. Continue efforts to rechannel Valdez Glacier Stream to undeveloped areas. (The City plans on excavating up to 50,000 cubic yards of gravel in Summer 2018 south of the Glacier Stream Bridge to keep the river in the middle of the channel.) 3. In 2012, an assessment of the Mineral Creek dike system was conducted, and deficiencies were noted. Repairs will be made in 2018. Mitigation Actions 4. Gravel Extraction of Valdez Glacier Creek and Mineral Creek. Does anyone know if this has occurred or when it will occur? 5. Increase public knowledge about mitigation opportunities, floodplain functions, emergency service procedures, and potential hazards. (The City distributes a quarterly flood newsletter.) 6. Install new streamflow and rainfall measuring gauges. 7. Apply for grants/funds to implement riverbank protection methods. 8. Continue to obtain flood insurance for all City structures and continue compliance with the NFIP. 9. Require all new structures to be constructed according to NFIP requirements and set back from the river shoreline to lessen future erosion concerns and costs. Mitigation Actions 10. The City is working on levee certification for the Lowe River Levee System. Completion is estimated in 2019. 11. Chapter 15.30 of the Valdez Municipal Code (Flood Hazard Protection Regulations) has been in place since 2000. The State Floodplain Coordinator has advised the City the code needs to be revised to maintain compliance with updated federal flood regulations. The revision is in process with completion scheduled for late 2018. DGGS is working on a Landslide Hazard Assessment. This map will be completed before the next HMP Update in 2023. This hazard has a possible probability of occurring per the 2013 Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan. The extent of this hazard could be limited in that injuries do not result in permanent disability, complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least one week, and more than 10% of property could be severely damaged. Mitigation Actions 1. Prohibit removal of vegetation in areas prone to landslides. (The City will implement a permit process that involves an assessment of landslide hazard areas for requests made to remove vegetation). 2. The City will enact via code a public disclosure of the risk linked to deed or title of property and require owners to notify renters of potential hazards prior to occupancy. (This action will be implemented prior to 2023). 3. Install warning signage in mapped landslide zones. (The City will install signs after the DGGS study/map has been completed). 4. The City will continue to educate the public about landslide hazards. (This action will be implemented prior to 2023). Severe weather for Valdez includes: ◦ Heavy Snow ◦ Ice Storms ◦ High Winds Severe weather has a “highly likely” probability of occurring. The extent of this hazard could be critical in that injuries could result in permanent disability, complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two weeks, and more than 25% of property could be severely damaged. The entire census area is vulnerable with roads, utilities, airports, residences, and water sources possibly being affected. Mitigation Actions 1. Research and consider implementing the National Weather Service’s “Storm Ready” program. 2. Conduct special awareness activities, such as Winter Weather Awareness Week, Flood Awareness Week, etc. 3. Expand public awareness about NOAA Weather Radio for continuous weather broadcasts and warning tone alert capability. 4. Encourage weather resistant building materials and practices. No tsunamis have occurred since the 1964 Good Friday Earthquake when the town location was moved. Tsunamis are considered to have an unlikely probability of occurring in Valdez. The vulnerability zone would be the immediate coastal zone below 50 feet in elevation. The extent of this hazard could be critical in that injuries could result in permanent disability, complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two weeks, and more than 25% of property could be severely damaged. Mitigation Actions (note these 3 are ongoing) 1. Continued participation in the Tsunami Awareness Program. 2. In 2017, DGGS created an inundation map for the Port of Valdez. This map will allow for better evacuation route planning, new zoning or re-zoning, and emergency planning. 3. Update the Emergency Operations Plan. Alaska is home to 41 historically active volcanoes stretching across the entire southern portion of the State from the Wrangell Mountains to the far Western Aleutians. An average of 1-2 eruptions per year occurs in Alaska. Valdez is vulnerable to ash fall based on wind direction. This hazard has an unlikely probability of occurring. The vulnerability zone is the entire census area. The extent of this hazard could be critical in that injuries could result in permanent disability, complete shutdown of critical facilities for at least two weeks, and more than 25% of property could be severely damaged. Mitigation Actions 1. Update public emergency notification procedures and emergency planning for ash fall events. 2. Evaluate the vulnerability of water and electric power systems to ash falls and mitigate the risks. 3. Ensure a Local Supply of Ash Masks and Store at Emergency Shelters. The vulnerability zone is the entire census area. The probability of future wildland fires is unlikely, and the extent is considered negligible. Mitigation Actions (note these 4 are ongoing) 1. Continue to Support the Local Fire Department with Adequate Firefighting Equipment and Training. Has a MOU been signed with the USFS? 2. Promote Fire Wise Building Design, Siting, and Materials for Construction. 3. Continue to enforce building codes and requirements for new construction. 4. Enhance Public Awareness of Potential Risk to Life and Personal Property. Ensure Mitigation Measures in the Immediate Vicinity of Their Property. A mitigation action is a planned activity that will reduce the community’s vulnerability to natural hazards. Mitigation actions are broadly categorized as: ◦ Prevention; ◦ Property Protection; ◦ Public Education and Awareness; ◦ Natural Resource Protection; ◦ Emergency Services; and ◦ Structural Projects. Remember the HMP is a plan. It is ultimately the responsibility of the community to initiate projects and seek out funding. The HMP should be also be referenced and incorporated into other community planning mechanisms to create a cohesive strategy for future actions. Perform annual reviews using the review sheet in Appendix F of plan. Gather public information about hazards using survey in Appendix F of plan. Initiate HMP update process before 2023. May 9: Workshop at 6 pm and Planning & Zoning Commission Meeting at 7 pm ◦ Provide overview of Planning Team’s progress in updating the HMP ◦ The plan has been available for review on the City’s website. Comment on plan 1.Commenting at May 9 meetings 2. Email your comments to [email protected] 3. Call Jennifer LeMay with your comments-907-350-6061 May 14 – 18: State of Alaska reviews 2018 Valdez HMP Update May 21 – June 30: FEMA reviews 2018 Valdez HMP Update July – Valdez City Council adopts plan by resolution Jennifer LeMay, PE, PMP Vice President 4272 Chelsea Way Anchorage, AK 99504 (907) 350-6061 [email protected] May 11, 2017 Brent A. Nichols, EMSII, CFM Emergency Management Specialist II & Certified Floodplain Manager Department of Military and Veterans Affairs Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management P.O. Box 5750 JBER, AK 99505-5750 Subject: Draft Hazard Mitigation Plan Public Comment Hearing Trip Report City of Valdez, Alaska On May 9, 2018, Jennifer LeMay, PE, PMP of LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. traveled to Valdez, Alaska. The purpose of this trip was to attend a 6 pm Workshop for the Draft Hazard Mitigation Plan as well as the 7 pm Planning & Zoning Commission meeting. Sign in sheets are included in Appendix C of the Draft HMP Update. The Workshop was well-attended. Due to a lack of quorum of Commissioners, the 7 pm meeting did not occur. However, I summarized the plan at 7 pm via a Powerpoint presentation as everyone from the 6 pm Workshop stayed for the presentation. My presentation is also included in Appendix C. Comments received during the Workshop were: 1. Fix two misspellings of names in Table 1 and add two people to Table 1. 2. On page 9, item #4, last sentence, change lowly to low. 3. On page 18, under Geography, New Valdez begins at MP -4 as Old Town began at MP 0. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to call me at (907) 350-6061. 5/11/18 Jennifer LeMay, PE, PMP/Date LeMay Engineering & Consulting, Inc. City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan APPENDIX D FEMA REVIEW TOOL APPENDIX A: LOCAL MITIGATION PLAN REVIEW TOOL The Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool demonstrates how the Local Mitigation Plan meets the regulation in 44 CFR §201.6 and offers States and FEMA Mitigation Planners an opportunity to provide feedback to the community. • The Regulation Checklist provides a summary of FEMA’s evaluation of whether the Plan has addressed all requirements. • The Plan Assessment identifies the plan’s strengths as well as documents areas for future improvement. • The Multi‐jurisdiction Summary Sheet is an optional worksheet that can be used to document how each jurisdiction met the requirements of the each Element of the Plan (Planning Process; Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment; Mitigation Strategy; Plan Review, Evaluation, and Implementation; and Plan Adoption). The FEMA Mitigation Planner must reference this Local Mitigation Plan Review Guide when completing the Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool. Jurisdiction: Title of Plan: Date of Plan: Valdez, Alaska (Region 10) City of Valdez Hazard Mitigation Plan Update May 30, 2018 Local Point of Contact: Address: Rochelle Rollenhagen 212 Chenega Ave Title: Valdez, AK 99686 Director Agency: City of Valdez Phone Number: E‐Mail: (907) 843-3451 [email protected] State Reviewer: Title: Date: FEMA Reviewer: Title: Date: Date Received in FEMA Region 10 Plan Not Approved Plan Approvable Pending Adoption Plan Approved Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool A‐1 SECTION 1: REGULATION CHECKLIST INSTRUCTIONS: The Regulation Checklist must be completed by FEMA. The purpose of the Checklist is to identify the location of relevant or applicable content in the Plan by Element/sub‐element and to determine if each requirement has been ‘Met’ or ‘Not Met.’ The ‘Required Revisions’ summary at the bottom of each Element must be completed by FEMA to provide a clear explanation of the revisions that are required for plan approval. Required revisions must be explained for each plan sub‐element that is ‘Not Met.’ Sub‐ elements should be referenced in each summary by using the appropriate numbers (A1, B3, etc.), where applicable. Requirements for each Element and sub‐element are described in detail in this Plan Review Guide in Section 4, Regulation Checklist. 1. REGULATION CHECKLIST Location in Plan (section and/or Not Regulation (44 CFR 201.6 Local Mitigation Plans) page number) Met Met ELEMENT A. PLANNING PROCESS A1. Does the Plan document the planning process, including how it PDF 13‐18, 193‐245 was prepared and who was involved in the process for each X jurisdiction? (Requirement §201.6(c)(1)) A2. Does the Plan document an opportunity for neighboring PDF 18, 210 communities, local and regional agencies involved in hazard mitigation activities, agencies that have the authority to regulate development as well as other interests to be involved in the planning X process? (Requirement §201.6(b)(2)) A3. Does the Plan document how the public was involved in the PDF 13‐18, 193‐245 planning process during the drafting stage? (Requirement X §201.6(b)(1)) A4. Does the Plan describe the review and incorporation of existing PDF 14-18 plans, studies, reports, and technical information? (Requirement X §201.6(b)(3)) A5. Is there discussion of how the community(ies) will continue public PDF 156, 259-263 participation in the plan maintenance process? (Requirement X §201.6(c)(4)(iii)) A6. Is there a description of the method and schedule for keeping the PDF 152-156, 255-263 plan current (monitoring, evaluating and updating the mitigation plan within a 5‐year cycle)? (Requirement §201.6(c)(4)(i)) X ELEMENT A: REQUIRED REVISIONS A‐2 Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool 1. REGULATION CHECKLIST Location in Plan (section and/or Not Regulation (44 CFR 201.6 Local Mitigation Plans) page number) Met Met ELEMENT B. HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT B1. Does the Plan include a description of the type, location, and PDF 56-131, 165-174 extent of all natural hazards that can affect each jurisdiction(s)? X (Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(i)) B2. Does the Plan include information on previous occurrences of PDF 60-61, 63, 69-70, hazard events and on the probability of future hazard events for each 75-84, 91-93, 95, 99- X jurisdiction? (Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(i)) 113, 116-121, 124-125, 128-131 B3. Is there a description of each identified hazard’s impact on the PDF 43-44, 62-63, 70, community as well as an overall summary of the community’s 82-83, 93, 95, 112-113, X vulnerability for each jurisdiction? (Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii)) 121, 125, 130-131 B4. Does the Plan address NFIP insured structures within the PDF 90 jurisdiction that have been repetitively damaged by floods? X (Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(ii)) ELEMENT B: REQUIRED REVISIONS ELEMENT C. MITIGATION STRATEGY C1. Does the plan document each jurisdiction’s existing authorities, PDF 22-24 policies, programs and resources and its ability to expand on and X improve these existing policies and programs? (Requirement §201.6(c)(3)) C2. Does the Plan address each jurisdiction’s participation in the NFIP PDF 90, 143 and continued compliance with NFIP requirements, as appropriate? X (Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(ii)) C3. Does the Plan include goals to reduce/avoid long‐term PDF 134-136 vulnerabilities to the identified hazards? (Requirement X §201.6(c)(3)(i)) C4. Does the Plan identify and analyze a comprehensive range of PDF 137-149 specific mitigation actions and projects for each jurisdiction being X considered to reduce the effects of hazards, with emphasis on new and existing buildings and infrastructure? (Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(ii)) C5. Does the Plan contain an action plan that describes how the PDF 137-149 actions identified will be prioritized (including cost benefit review), X implemented, and administered by each jurisdiction? (Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(iv)); (Requirement §201.6(c)(3)(iii)) Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool A‐3 C6. Does the Plan describe a process by which local governments will PDF 155-156 X integrate the requirements of the mitigation plan into other planning mechanisms, such as comprehensive or capital improvement plans, when appropriate? (Requirement §201.6(c)(4)(ii)) ELEMENT C: REQUIRED REVISIONS 1. REGULATION CHECKLIST Location in Plan (section and/or Not Regulation (44 CFR 201.6 Local Mitigation Plans) page number) Met Met ELEMENT D. PLAN REVIEW, EVALUATION, AND IMPLEMENTATION (applicable to plan updates only) D1. Was the plan revised to reflect changes in development? PDF 40‐41 (Requirement §201.6(d)(3)) D2. Was the plan revised to reflect progress in local mitigation PDF 137-149 efforts? (Requirement §201.6(d)(3)) D3. Was the plan revised to reflect changes in priorities? PDF 137 (Requirement §201.6(d)(3)) ELEMENT D: REQUIRED REVISIONS ELEMENT E. PLAN ADOPTION E1. Does the Plan include documentation that the plan has been Adoption Letter formally adopted by the governing body of the jurisdiction requesting X approval? (Requirement §201.6(c)(5)) E2. For multi‐jurisdictional plans, has each jurisdiction requesting N/A approval of the plan documented formal plan adoption? X (Requirement §201.6(c)(5)) ELEMENT E: REQUIRED REVISIONS ELEMENT F. ADDITIONAL STATE REQUIREMENTS (OPTIONAL FOR STATE REVIEWERS ONLY; NOT TO BE COMPLETED BY FEMA) F1. F2. A‐4 Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool ELEMENT F: REQUIRED REVISIONS Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool A‐5 SECTION 2: PLAN ASSESSMENT A. Plan Strengths and Opportunities for Improvement This section provides a discussion of the strengths of the plan document and identifies areas where these could be improved beyond minimum requirements. Element A: Planning Process Plan Strengths: Opportunities for Improvement: Element B: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Plan Strengths: Opportunities for Improvement: Element C: Mitigation Strategy Plan Strengths: Opportunities for Improvement: B. Resources for Implementing Your Approved Plan The Region 10 Integrating Natural Hazard Mitigation into Comprehensive Planning is a resource specific to Region 10 states and provides examples of how communities are integrating natural hazard mitigation strategies into comprehensive planning. You can find it in the FEMA Library at http://www.fema.gov/media‐library/assets/documents/89725. The Integrating Hazard Mitigation Into Local Planning: Case Studies and Tools for Community Officials resource provides practical guidance on how to incorporate risk reduction strategies into existing local plans, policies, codes, and programs that guide community development or redevelopment patterns. It includes recommended steps and tools to assist with local integration efforts, along with ideas for overcoming possible impediments, and presents a series of case studies to demonstrate successful integration in practice. You can find it in the FEMA Library at http://www.fema.gov/library/viewRecord.do?id=7130. The Mitigation Ideas: A Resource for Reducing Risk from Natural Hazards resource presents ideas for how to mitigate the impacts of different natural hazards, from drought and sea level rise, to severe winter weather and wildfire. The document also includes ideas for actions that communities can take to reduce risk to multiple hazards, such as incorporating a hazard risk assessment into the local development review process. You can find it in the FEMA Library at http://www.fema.gov/library/viewRecord.do?id=6938. The Local Mitigation Planning Handbook provides guidance to local governments on developing or updating hazard mitigation plans to meet and go above the requirements. You can find it in the FEMA Library at http://www.fema.gov/library/viewRecord.do?id=7209. The Integration Hazard Mitigation and Climate Adaptation Planning: Case Studies and Lessons Learned resource is a 2014 ICLEI publication for San Diego with a clear methodology that could assist in next steps for integration impacts of climate change throughout mitigation actions. http://icleiusa.org/wp‐content/uploads/2015/08/Integrating‐Hazard‐Mitigation‐and‐Climate‐ Adaptation‐Planning.pdf The Local Mitigation Plan Review Guide and Tool resource is available through FEMA’s Library and should be referred to for the next plan update. http://www.fema.gov/library/viewRecord.do?id=4859 The Tribal Multi‐Hazard Mitigation Planning Guidance: This resource is specific to tribal governments developing or updating tribal mitigation plans. It covers all aspects of tribal planning requirements and the steps to developing tribal mitigation plans. You can find the document in the FEMA Library at http://www.fema.gov/media‐library/assets/documents/18355 National Fire Adapted Communities Learning Network Volcanic Eruption Mitigation Measures: For information on Mitigation Actions for Volcanic Eruptions that would satisfy the C4 requirement, please visit: http://earthzine.org/2011/03/21/volcanic‐crisis‐management‐and‐mitigation‐strategies‐a‐multi‐risk‐ framework‐case‐study/ and http://www.gvess.org/publ.html. The FEMA Region 10 Risk Mapping, Analysis, and Planning program (Risk MAP) releases a monthly newsletter that includes information about upcoming events and training opportunities, as well as hazard and risk related news from around the Region. Past newsletters can be viewed at http://www.starr‐team.com/starr/RegionalWorkspaces/RegionX/Pages/default.aspx. If you would like to receive future newsletters, email rxnewsletter@starr‐team.com and ask to be included. The mitigation strategy may include eligible projects to be funded through FEMA’s hazard mitigation grant programs (Pre‐Disaster Mitigation, Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, and Flood Mitigation Assistance). Contact your State Hazard Mitigation Officer, Brent Nichols at [email protected], for more information. Local Mitigation Plan Review Tool A‐7 City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan APPENDIX E BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS Benefit-Cost Analysis Fact Sheet Hazard mitigation projects are specifically aimed at reducing or eliminating future damages. Although hazard mitigation projects may sometimes be implemented in conjunction with the repair of damages from a declared disaster, the focus of hazard mitigation projects is on strengthening, elevating, relocating, or otherwise improving buildings, infrastructure, or other facilities to enhance their ability to withstand the damaging impacts of future disasters. In some cases, hazard mitigation projects may also include training or public-education programs if such programs can be demonstrated to reduce future expected damages. A Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) provides an estimate of the “benefits” and “costs” of a proposed hazard mitigation project. The benefits considered are avoided future damages and losses that are expected to accrue as a result of the mitigation project. In other words, benefits are the reduction in expected future damages and losses (i.e., the difference in expected future damages before and after the mitigation project). The costs considered are those necessary to implement the specific mitigation project under evaluation. Costs are generally well determined for specific projects for which engineering design studies have been completed. Benefits, however, must be estimated probabilistically because they depend on the improved performance of the building or facility in future hazard events, the timing and severity of which must be estimated probabilistically. All Benefit-Costs must be: Credible and well documented Prepared in accordance with accepted BCA practices Cost-effective (BCR ≥ 1.0) General Data Requirements: All data entries (other than Federal Emergency Management Agency [FEMA] standard or default values) MUST be documented in the application. Data MUST be from a credible source. Provide complete copies of reports and engineering analyses. Detailed cost estimate. Identify the hazard (flood, wind, seismic, etc.). Discuss how the proposed measure will mitigate against future damages. Document the Project Useful Life. Document the proposed Level of Protection. The Very Limited Data (VLD) BCA module cannot be used to support cost-effectiveness (screening purposes only). Alternative BCA software MUST be approved in writing by FEMA HQ and the Region prior to submittal of the application. Damage and Benefit Data Well documented for each damage event. Include estimated frequency and method of determination per damage event. Data used in place of FEMA standard or default values MUST be documented and justified. The Level of Protection MUST be documented and readily apparent. When using the Limited Data (LD) BCA module, users cannot extrapolate data for higher frequency events for unknown lower frequency events. Building Data Should include FEMA Elevation Certificates for elevation projects or projects using First Floor Elevations (FFEs). Include data for building type (tax records or photos). Contents claims that exceed 30 percent of building replacement value (BRV) MUST be fully documented. Method for determining BRVs MUST be documented. BRVs based on tax records MUST include the multiplier from the County Tax Assessor. Identify the amount of damage that will result in demolition of the structure (FEMA standard is 50 percent of pre-damage structure value). Include the site location (i.e., miles inland) for the Hurricane module. Use Correct Occupancy Data Design occupancy for Hurricane shelter portion of Tornado module. Average occupancy per hour for the Tornado shelter portion of the Tornado module. Average occupancy for Seismic modules. Questions to Be Answered Has the level of risk been identified? Are all hazards identified? Is the BCA fully documented and accompanied by technical support data? Will residual risk occur after the mitigation project is implemented? Common Shortcomings Incomplete documentation. Inconsistencies among data in the application, BCA module runs, and the technical support data. Lack of technical support data. Lack of a detailed cost estimate. Use of discount rate other than FEMA-required amount of 7 percent. Overriding FEMA default values without providing documentation and justification. Lack of information on building type, size, number of stories, and value. Lack of documentation and credibility for FFEs. Use of incorrect Project Useful Life (not every mitigation measure = 100 years). City of Valdez, Alaska Hazard Mitigation Plan APPENDIX F PLAN MAINTENANCE DOCUMENTS Community Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey Community Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey This survey is an opportunity for you to share your opinions and participate in the mitigation planning process. The information that you provide will help us better understand your concerns for hazards and risks, which could lead to mitigation activities that will help reduce those risks and the impacts of future hazard events. The hazard mitigation process is not complete without your feedback. All individual responses are strictly confidential and will be used for mitigation planning purposes only. Please help us by taking a few minutes to complete this survey and return it to: Valdez Planning Director, City Hall Vulnerability Assessment The following questions focus on how vulnerable the community or its facilities are to damage from a particular hazard type using the following vulnerability scale: 0= Don't Know 1 =Minimally Vulnerable 2=Moderately Vulnerable 3=Severely Vulnerable 1. How vulnerable to damage are the structures in the community from: a. Flooding? 0 1 2 3 b. Wildfire? 0 1 2 3 C. Earthquakes? 0 1 2 3 d. Volcanoes? 0 1 2 3 e. Snow Avalanche? 0 1 2 3 f. Tsunami/Seiches? 0 1 2 3 g. Severe weather storms? 0 1 2 3 h. Ground failure (landslide, permafrost)? 0 1 2 3 i. Coastal erosion? 0 1 2 3 j. Climate change? 0 1 2 3 k. Other hazards? 0 1 2 3 Please Specify: Valdez Hazard Analysis 1 Community Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 2. How vulnerable to damage are the critical facilities within our community from: [Critical facilities include airport, community shelter, bulk fuel storage tanks, generators, hospital, law enforcement office, school, public works, reservoir/water supply, satellite dish, communications tower, landfill, and stores.] a. Flooding? 0 1 2 3 b. Wildfire? 0 1 2 3 C. Earthquakes? 0 1 2 3 d. Volcanoes? 0 1 2 3 e. Snow Avalanche? 0 1 2 3 f. Tsunami/Seiches? 0 1 2 3 g. Severe weather storms? 0 1 2 3 h. Ground failure (landslide, permafrost)? 0 1 2 3 i. Coastal erosion? 0 1 2 3 j. Climate change? 0 1 2 3 k. Other hazards? 0 1 2 3 Please Specify: 3. How vulnerable to displacement, evacuation or life-safety is the community from: a. Flooding? 0 1 2 3 b. Wildfire? 0 1 2 3 C. Earthquakes? 0 1 2 3 d. Volcanoes? 0 1 2 3 e. Snow Avalanche? 0 1 2 3 f. Tsunami/Seiches? 0 1 2 3 g. Severe weather storms? 0 1 2 3 h. Ground failure (landslide, permafrost)? 0 1 2 3 i. Coastal erosion? 0 1 2 3 j. Climate change? 0 1 2 3 k. Other hazards? 0 1 2 3 Please Specify: 4. Do you have a record of damages incurred during past flood events? Yes No If yes, please describe:______ Valdez Hazard Analysis 2 Community Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey Preparedness Preparedness activities are often the first line of defense for protection of your family and the community. In the following list, please check those activities that you have done, plan to do in the near future, have not done, or are unable to do. Please check one answer for each preparedness activity. Have Plan to Not Unable Have you or someone in your household: Done do Done to do Attended meetings or received written information on natural □ □ □ □ disasters or emergency preparedness? Talked with family members about what to do in case of a □ □ □ □ disaster or emergency? Made a "Household/Family Emergency Plan" in order to decide □ □ □ □ what everyone would do in the event of a disaster? Prepared a "Disaster Supply Kit" extra food, water, medications, □ □ □ □ batteries, first aid items, and other emergency supplies)? In the last year, has anyone in your household been trained in □ □ □ □ First Aid or CPR? 5.Would you be willing to make your home more resistant to natural disasters? □ Yes □ No 6. Would you be willing to spend more money on your home to make it more disaster resistant? □ Yes □ No □ Don't know 7. How much are you willing to spend to better protect your home from natural disasters? (Check only one) □ Less than $100 □ Desire to relocate for protection □ $100-$499 Other, please explain □ $500 and above □ □ Nothing I Don't know □ Whatever it takes Valdez Hazard Analysis 3 Community Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey Mitigation Activities A component of the Local Hazard Mitigation Plan activities is developing and documenting additional mitigation strategies that will aid the community in protecting life and property from the impacts of future natural disasters. Mitigation activities are those types of actions you can take to protect your home and property from natural hazard events such as floods, severe weather, and wildfire. Please check the box for the following statements to best describe their importance to you. Your responses will help us determine your community's priorities for planning for these mitigation activities. Very Somewhat Neutral Not Very Not Statement Important Important Important Important Protecting private property □ □ □ □ □ Protecting critical facilities (clinic, school, washeteria, police/fire department, □ □ □ □ □ water/sewer, landfill) Preventing development in hazard areas □ □ □ □ □ Protecting natural environment □ □ □ □ □ Protecting historical and cultural landmarks □ □ □ □ □ Promoting cooperation within the community □ □ □ □ □ Protecting and reducing damage to □ □ □ □ □ utilities, roads, or water tank Strengthening emergency services (clinic workers, □ □ □ □ □ police/fire) 8. Do you have other suggestions for possible mitigation actions/strategies? ______ General Household Information 9. Please indicate your age: ______ and Gender: □ Male □ Female Valdez Hazard Analysis 4 Community Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Survey 10. Please indicate your level of education: □ Grade school/no schooling □ College degree □ Some high school □ Postgraduate degree □ High school graduate/GED Other, please specify □ □ Some college/trade school 11. How long have you lived in Valdez? □ Less than 5 years □ 5 to 10 years □ 11 to 20 years □ 21 or more years 12. Do you have internet access? □ Yes □ No 13. Do you own or rent your home? □ Own □ Rent If you have any questions regarding this survey or would like to learn about other ways that you can participate in the development of the Local Hazard Mitigation Plan, please contact the Valdez Planning Director. Thank You for Your Participation! This survey may be submitted anonymously; however, if you provide us with your name and contact information below we will have the ability to follow up with you to learn more about your ideas or concerns (optional): Name: ______Address: ______Phone: ______Valdez Hazard Analysis 5