Models for a Sustainable World
- Reflections on prospects for integrated modelling -
Bert de Vries
Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL)
Utrecht Centrum voor Aarde en Duurzaamheid (UCAD) Universiteit Utrecht
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Ecole Thématique du CNRS Rétroactions dans les systèmes environnementaux La Rochelle 1. Scenarios: world models, model-supported narratives (‘storylines’) and worldviews
2. Continuation de la présentation du 7 juin * Ecosystem dynamics: regime shifts and critical transitions * Exploring competition vs. coordination in a climate-resource constrained world economy
3. Preliminary proposal for IAM platform Epistemological notes
Don’t expect a Unified Theory of Socio-Natural Systems, nor any exact knowledge…
... precision is not always what we are looking for:
Joachim went to the famous Museum of Natural History where, he was told, one could see many dinosaurs.
Seeing one of them, the provost standing nearby told him ‘This dinosaur is very old, 65 million and 15 years.’
‘Very old indeed’ replied Joachim, ‘… but how do you know its age with such precision?‘
‘Well’ the man replied ‘When I came here to do this work, it was 65 million years old and that was 15 years ago…’ World(3) Trends until 2020
1: population 1 2: food 87 3: industrial outp… 4: ppoll index 143 5: nr resources … 1: 1.30e+10 5 2: 6.00e+12 3: 4.00e+12 4: 40.00 Nonrenewable 5 5: 2.00e+12 Resources 3
Food 1: 6.50e+09 2: 3.00e+12 2 4 3: 2.00e+12 1 Industrial 1 4: 20.00 5 5: 1.00e+12 Production
4 Population 5 1 2 3 Pollution 3 1: 0.00 2: 0.00 1 3: 0.00 2 2 4: 0.00 3 4 5: 0.00 4 1900.00 1950.00 2000.00 2050.00 2100.00 Years
(Meadows et al. 1972, 1992, 2005) World3 Standard model run
1: population 1 2: food 87 3: industrial outp… 4: ppoll index 143 5: nr resources … 1: 1.30e+10 5 2: 6.00e+12 3: 4.00e+12 4: 40.00 Nonrenewable 5 5: 2.00e+12 Resources 3
Food 1: 6.50e+09 2: 3.00e+12 2 4 3: 2.00e+12 1 1 4: 20.00 5 5: 1.00e+12 Industrial Production 4 Population 5 1 2 3 Pollution 3 1: 0.00 2: 0.00 1 3: 0.00 2 2 4: 0.00 3 4 5: 0.00 4 1900.00 1950.00 2000.00 2050.00 2100.00 Years
(Meadows et al. 1972, 1992, 2005) Present, past and future of global change: TARGETS1.0
Population Economic & Health Activity
Land & Food Water Energy
Biogeochemical Cycles
TARGETS1.0 : Integrated Modelling and Assessment approach
(Rotmans and De Vries (Eds.) The TARGETS model. Cambridge University Press (1997)) Socio-cultural dynamics
Out of control marginalization Risk-control strong grid dependent excluded established elites [fatalist] [hierarchist]
n io n at o ra z n i d ti io t t ic a a a v ari iz weak groupz p l t i clumsy institutionsiz (Thompson)a strong group l acr
a ut a io n e n i ur g b
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successful opportunists collective identity [individualist] common property[egalitarian] regimes (Ostrom) Risk-taking weak grid Risk-avoiding
e e e e e Worldview: how does the world ‘work’? Individualist Hierarchist Egalitarian
Individualist Hierarchist Egalitarian utopia crisis nightmare Individualist Individualist
Too much Hierarchist Too little, bureaucracy utopia too late bureaucracy Hierarchist
World of World of Egalitarian ‘missed ‘anarchist utopia opportunities’ threat’ Management style: according style: Management to whose interpretation the world ‘managed’? is Egalitarian Individualist Hierarchist Egalitarian
(Delayed) Club of Rome Business-as- Usual ‘doomsday scenario’
A dystopian future - the egalitarian nightmare: population decline due to the integrated feedback from greenhousegas emissions->climate change->declining food availability Fig. 18.2a Rotmans and De Vries 1997 Sensitivity of utopias to discrepancies between worldview and policy style
Perspective (proneness to the risk of:) Hierarchist* Egalitarian Individualist overestimation of the robustness of the natural system ++++ ---- ++ overestimation of the number of cheap, good-quality natural resources +- -- +++ overestimation of the extent/rate at which efficiency technology can/will be used +- ++ ++++ overestimation of the extent to which people are prepared to accept [govern- ment-induced] changes in lifestyle +- ++++ ----
*) +: sensitive to overestimation in the sense of [serious] undesirable consequences occurring ive at Tellus Institute 2009 tit an models qu scenarios e tiv stories ta ali qu
(IPCC 2000) Value orientations (NL 2000)... Other oriented
Big worldhigh To give Geëngageerden old education engaged Ruimdenkersbroad thinking unemployed women Zorgzamencaring rich businessZakelijken Evenwichtigen Conservation Development balanced poor men luxury Luxezoekers seeking employed conservativeBehoudenden
enjoyingGenieters low young Small To take educationworld Self and socio-demographic characteristics oriented Source: NIPO/RIVM Global Market SafeRegion
Emphasis on Efficiency, wealth Individualization A1 A2 Fail solutions •Feasible •Breakdownrisks problems •Perceived futures •Possible strengthen okfrwnwnsrtge n outpolicies androbust strategies win-win look for mhsso regionalisation on Emphasis mhsso globalisation on Emphasis your own taei approach: Strategic atsnapproach: Partisan solutions ‘robust’ Possible position by orientation+system) belief (worldview= value imagining the GlobalSolidarity enemy B1 Caring Region Caring B2
Emphasis on Solidarity, wellbeing Collecitivity Global Market SafeRegion
Emphasis on Efficiency, wealth Individualization A1 A2 niiuloriented Individual otk:aheefrself for To take: achieve Self-enhancement eforiented Self Performance Performance Achievement Me Me i,ulmtdworld Big, unlimited mhsso regionalisation on Emphasis mhsso globalisation on Emphasis Universalism Freedom Conservation Conformism Stagnation Order Order pnesfrchange for Openness ml. iie world limited Small., idyu w way own your Find Conformity Freedom Family life Family Progress ogv:aheefrothers for To give: achieve Self-transcendence oiloriented Social te oriented Other Benevolence Relations Relations We We GlobalSolidarity B1 Caring Region Caring B2
Emphasis on Solidarity, wellbeing Collecitivity
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i t VALUES THE ECONOMY THE It It is TECHNOLOGY stup.. governments immaterialism globalization regionalization Storylines : markets materialism evolution over time subjective well-being
e e behaviour scenarios
functionings
e value world orientation interpretation e
capabilities
natural available ‘autonomous’ resources technology dynamics
e e e e e Van Vuuren, De Vries et al. 2008 Van Vuuren, De Vries et al. 2008 Van Vuuren, De Vries et al. 2008 (De Vries et al. 2006) A1, 2050
None Wind+PV Wind PV+Biomass Areas suitable (i.e. generation cost < PV Wind+Biomass 0,1 $/kWh electricity) for Wind Solar- Biomass All PV Biomass options WSB (Wind Solar Biomass)options (elec&trp fuel) with interaction, A1 world 2050 (De Vries et al. 2006) A2, 2050
None Wind+PV Areas suitable (i.e. generation cost < Wind PV+Biomass 0,1 $/kWh electricity) for Wind Solar- PV Wind+Biomass Biomass All PV Biomass options WSB (Wind Solar Biomass)options (elec&trp fuel) with interaction, A2 world 2050
From inner to outer, from ME to US
bridging micro and macro
e e e e world internal subjective mental/spiritual attitude: constructivism
ignorance
wisdom and between interaction weak science
system elements system
iest/eeoeet of Diversity/heterogeneity
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and uncertainty anduncertainty r g
g a andsocial sciences bridgingnatural the attitude: positivism ‘strong science’: observation-theory cycle with controlled experiments world external material objective an increasing need to deal with complexity deal complexity with increasing needan to low consensus on knowledge high al tutrdproblem: structured badly ntutrdproblem: unstructured optto in azero- competition rbe recognizer problem cec asmediator science break upindisarray teams and projects teams low low problem recognizer problem problem recognizer problem low problem: scienceas problem: problem: scienceas problem: POLITICS zone structured problem: problem: structured structured sciencescienceas as CHAOS zone breakbreakupupdisarraydisarrayinin TeamsTeamsandandprojectsprojects cec as science u game sum unstructured unstructured unstructured unstructured CompetitionCompetitiona a inin Chaos zonezone Chaos Chaos zero-sumzero-sum gamegame PoliticsPoliticszonezone badly badly - rdigscience bridging consensus on values values on consensus mediator mediator and and policy agreement agreement rbe solver asproblem science problem: scienceas problem: problem: scienceas problem: structured problem: structured structured problem: structured oeaeystructured moderately scienceas scienceas sharedshared vision,sharedvision,shared goal seekingseekinggoalgoal controlcontrol cec asadvocate science Planning, Planning, budgets,budgets, problem solver problem problem solver problem defineddefinedoutcomes,outcomes, tutrdproblem: structured Missions,Missions,values,values, olseigcontrol goal seeking Planning, budgets, Planning, budgets, missions, values, defined outcomes, outcomes, defined RationalRationalzonezone VisionVisionzonezone structured structured structured structured moderately moderately hrdculture shared RATIONAL zoneRATIONAL hrdvision, shared VISION zone VISION cultureculture problem: advocate advocate high high
low understanding high
1. Scenarios: world models and model-supported narratives (‘storylines’)
2. Continuation de la présentation du 7 juin * Ecosystem dynamics: regime shifts and critical transitions * Exploring competition vs. coordination in a climate-resource constrained world economy
3. Preliminary proposal for IAM platform
Members/partners, a.o.: •Klaus Hasselmann (MP Hamburg) •Julian Hunt (HofL) •Carlo Jaeger (PIK) •Kristian Lindgren (Chalmers) •Bert de Vries (PBL/UU) •Dum (EU Sci Officer) •… www.globalsystemdynamics.eu Interacting with complex systems: models and games for a sustainable economy. http://www.pbl.nl/nl/publicaties/2010/Interactie-met-duurzame-systemen-modellen-en- spellen-voor-een-duurzame-economie.html or www.globalsystemdynamics.eu. New ways in humans-on-earth systems (or social-ecological systems [SES])
Away from the lonely, isolated optimizing representative agent…
•Choice processes: MNL en positive returns (Polya generator) •Evolutionary games (Lindgren) •Segregation and integration (Schelling) (NetLogo) •Extended utility functions (Magnuszewski) •Consumatten (Jager et al 2000) •Evolutionaire economie: producent-consument interaction (Dosi, vdBergh) •Competition and cooperation in social dilemmas (Ostrom, Janssen) •Random and scale-free network dynamics (NetLogo) •Social networks (Weisbuch, Brede) •Business: system dynamics (Sterman) •Markets and prices (Gintis) •Optimize and MSY (Clark) •Regime shifts in multi-stable systems (Scheffer, Rietkerk) •Cartesians and stochasts (Allen/McGlade) •Fishing strategies (Brede/De Vries) •Climate strategies: competition vs. cooperation (Brede/De Vries) •Sustainable livelihood (Engelen, Hein) •CLIMEX interactive (De Vries/Apetrei) (website) •Experimental economics (Janssen) •Participatory modelling (ComMod – Etienne et al) Resource scarcity and dominant strategy Dependence on the exploitation ratio Balance between COIN and MG an indicator of exploitation ratio?
under-exploited over-exploited • Far above tipping point: uncoordinated and community-based strategies • Around tipping point: cycles short- and long term planning • Below tipping point: “Communism” of team games (Brede and de Vries 2009) Catastrophic regime shifts
The possibility of more than one equilibrium state has drawn increasing attention in the search for adaptive resource management. The same class of nonlinear equations as in the bistable oscillator:
2 α=-5 XXdtdX −−= α)(/ diff eqn dx/dt=-x(x*x-a) α=0 α=5 20 can generate bifurcations:
1: state variable X 2: attractor1 3: attractor2 0
4 dx/dt -3 0 3
1 2 2 -20 x 0 1 2 3 1
3
3 a (X(0)=1,RF=0) -4 0.00 25.00 50.00 1: state variable X 2: attractor1 3: attractor2 4 A multi-equilibrium system: bifurcations with a change in slow 2 1 variables (α from -2 to +4) and 2 external random influences (RF=6) 2 3 0 1 1 1: state variable X 2: attractor1 3: attractor2 3 4 3 c (X(0)=1, RF=12) 2 -4 0.00 25.00 50.00 2 Page 11: state variable X 2: attractor1 Time 3: attractor2 4 0 1 2 3 1 3 b (X(0)=1, RF=6) 1 3 2 2 2 1 1 -4 0 0.00 25.00 50.00 Page 1 Time 3 1 3 3
d (X(0)=1, α=1, RF=12) -4 0.00 25.00 50.00 Lake dynamics in De Wieden
Hein 2010; Scheffer et al. 1997 (Scheffer et al. 2009) Slow Response of Societies to New Problems: Causes and Costs Marten Scheffer, Frances Westley and William Brock Ecosystems (2003) 6: 493–502
active public attitude The degree of hysteresis in public attitude towards the need to regulate a problem is predicted to be larger in situations with: - high peer pressure - lack of strong opinion leaders
switch to activeto switch - complex problems - relatively homogeneous switch to passive to switch
Public Attitude Public populations. passive public attitude
Passive Active Perceived Seriousness of the Problem
Magnuszewski 2010 (Kefi, Rietkerk et al. 2007) Coupling microscale vegetation-infiltration and macroscale vegetation-precipitation feedbacks
Stefan C. Dekker, Max Rietkerk and Marc F.P. Bierkens Utrecht University, The Netherlands (Accepted for Global Change Biology)
Spatial model r ∂ txO ),( = [][][rainfall − oninfiltrati ± overland flow] ∂ t
v ∂ txW ),( = [][][][oninfiltrati uptake −− ± waternevaporatio movement] ∂t
r ∂ ,txP )( [][][]growth loss ±−= dispersal ∂t
Hillerislambers et al Ecology 2001; Rietkerk et al AmNat 2002 Renewable water Population density Infrastructure density res s ource
- Wa ter Water supply ove Soft and hard ru s infrastructure e Infant mortality
+ Agricultural +
+ Income production + and its distribution se ru ove
- Soil Soil quality +
Agro-potential Soil erosion Per cap. income (avg.)
Figure 4.10 Condensed influence diagram of the pattern of vulnerability of smallholder farmers in drylands. Grey boxes and arrows: important vulnerability elements. Blue arrows: influence of production factors. Black arrows: general influences. +/- sign at the arrows: positive or negative influence. Green text and lines: indicators and their relation to the vulnerability elements. Kok et al. 2011 www.pbl.nl/en 1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 y ity ce on tal tial i r our n o ros income e m re densit l a u r res ant e Soi Inf truct wat Agropote as e Population densityr Inf enewabl Average per capit R
Figure 4.11 Eight typical vulnerability profiles in drylands worldwide as arising from the cluster analysis. The lines show the indicator values of the respective cluster centers, normalized (min/max) to emphasize the ranking of indicators amongst the different clusters. The line colors fit to the colors used in Figure 4.4 depicting the geographical distribution of the clusters. Kok et al. 2011 www.pbl.nl/en Figure 4.12 Distribution of the eight vulnerability profiles in drylands worldwide. For the respective vulnerability profiles see Figure 3 Kok et al. 2011 www.pbl.nl/en
Pousser… mais où? PBL (2009). Growing within Limits Without global cooperation, ambitious climate SusClimprotection : growth will be in virtually a climate-constrained impossible world e e e e e e
Country 2
250 [mln] people in 1990 Technology transfer : Rich, little oil Alternative Energy
Country 1 850 [mln] people in 1990 Trade : Oil for Poor, much oil Goods Country 3 The Commons :
atmospheric CO2-sink
Country 4 Real world?
(i) agents optimize a country specific utility function Ui = U(Ci, Pi), where the index i specifies the consumption and population in country i. It is based on regional planning in a competitively managed world. (ii) agents strife to optimize the world utility function U = U(Pi Ci,Pi Pi). The latter is based on global planning in a cooperatively managed world
Simulated world in IAMs for climate policy
(Brede and De Vries 2009) (Brede and De Vries 2009)
(Brede and De Vries 2009) (Brede and De Vries 2009) Objective 1: examine the real-world tradeoffs between countries, given differences in oil resources and climate change vulnerability Objective 2: develop a platform on which complex system methods can be tried out and stakeholders can be nteractively involved. Objective 3: staying below 2oC Climate change policy: the role of coordination
…our findings for a situation without climate change: treating the oil resource or the knowledge stock as a common pool resource has a similar effect: it intensifies the ToC by promoting early use of oil and making the transition to renewables more abrupt
…there are situations in which energy demand cannot be met and the economy suffers from energy shortages.
…with climate change, that is: the atmosphere is treated as a common pool too, the situation worsens significantly… with more than 2 or 3 agents, the scramble for oil intensifies and over-all utility falls with 20-30% as compared to the cooperative world… energy shortage become more severe as the transition to renewable energy becomes even more abrupt. P PROBABILITY P YOU LOOSE INSURANCE SAVINGS ALL SAVINGS IN THE END FUND
€ IN FUND
ANNUAL INCOME: Inspired by Milinksky et al. 2006 and work by Marco Janssen and Francois Bousquet http://www.sustainabilityscience.eu/climex/ Given Decision Situation Independent Intervening Dependent variables variables variable
problem actual malignancy damage
uncertainty external- individual risk risk discourse perception individual intention individual (worry) economiceconomic collective risk behaviour discourse behaviour (t)(t) solvability degree of control over (collective) perception risk (motivation )
Previous information and attitudes related to climate change General trust in media, trust in government Risk attitude, self-efficacy, trust in others Demographics: age, sex, education level, income
Background variables External Context
e e e e e e e e e Research questions, for instance: *what is the role of problem malignancy? *what is the role of uncertainty? … How far away from rational (optimizing) behaviour? Cristina Apetrei 2010 •Coordination vs. competition •Archetypical patterns •Ecosystem regime shifts •Trade network interactions •Non-linear climate-economy dynamics •Agri-indus-serv sectoral dynamics •Scaling laws in space •Simulation games & interactive mod
2 5 4 1 countries 3 6
‘platform’ for experiments ‘black box representation’
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