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Joint Cooperation Program (JCP)
Activity Report January 2011 – March 2013
Eelco van Beek Kees Bons Janjaap Brinkman
1201430-000
Title Joint Cooperation Program (JCP)
Client Project Reference Pages Water Mondiaal / PvW 1201430-000 1201430-000-VEB-0047 1 Netherlands Embassy Jakarta
Keywords Indonesia, IWRM planning, climate change, floods, droughts, lowlands, FEWS, DEWS
Summary This document presents the Activities and Results of the Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) from January 2011 till March 2013.
References 1. Joint Cooperation Program 2010-2015, Outline Program – Project Digest, July 2009 2. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) 2010-2015, Project Document - Work plan Initiation phase (Yr-1 and Yr-2), October 19, 2010 3. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Inception Report, May 2011 4. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Progress Report 2011.01, November 16, 2011 5. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Year Plan 2012, December 2011 6. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Financiële voortgangsrapportage 2011, 15 Maart 2012 7. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Progress Report 2012.01, April 3, 2012 8. Joint Cooperation, A Vision on Sustainability, memo, July 2012 9. Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Year Plan 2013, January 2013
Version Date Author Initials Review Initials Approval Initials 0.1 May 2013 Eelco van Beek Rinus Vis Hans Vissers Kees Bons 1.0f July 2013 Eelco van Beek Rinus Vis Hans Vissers
State Final
Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) - Activity Report January 2011 – March 2013
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Contents
1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background and objective of JCP 1 1.2 Approach of first phase of JCP – towards sustainable cooperation 2 1.3 Project components 2 1.4 Set-up of this report 3
2 WRM planning and Development of IWRM Tools 5 2.1 Supporting the Pola process for the EDB river basin in Papua 5 2.2 Setting up a Training-of-Trainers programme for Pola and Rencana development 10 2.3 Supporting PusAir in establishing a WMO Regional Training Centre on Hydrology 12 2.4 Summary of outcome of activity 13
3 Jakarta Extreme Precipitation 14 3.1 PhD research on Jakarta Extreme Precipitation 14 3.2 Other activities 15 3.3 Summary of outcome of activity 16
4 Water Management Datasets for River Basins 18 4.1 Activities 18 4.2 Deliverables and technical training / workshops 20 4.3 Recommended next steps 21 4.4 Summary of outcome of activity 22
5 Assessing Lowland / Peatland subsidence and future drainability 23 5.1 Activities 23 5.2 Deliverables and technical training / workshops 26 5.3 Recommended next steps 27 5.4 Summary of outcome of activity 28
6 Drought Mapping and Drought Early Warning 29 6.1 Activities 31 6.2 Deliverables and technical training / workshops 33 6.3 Recommended next steps 35 6.4 Summary of outcome of activity 36
7 Flood Forecasting and Operational Management 37 7.1 Activities 38 7.2 Deliverables, training and workshops 41 7.3 Indirect spin-off of activities and on-going activities 44 7.3.1 Application of the Flood Forecasting System 44 7.3.2 Jakarta Floods 2013 44 7.4 Future developments – towards the National System 45 7.5 Summary of outcome of activity 48
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8 What has been achieved? – How to continue JCP? 49 8.1 Organizational set-up JCP – towards a sustainable cooperation 49 8.1.1 Extending JCP with new partners 49 8.1.2 Future organizational set-up of JCP 50 8.1.3 Funding 52 8.2 Preparing for JCP-II 53 8.2.1 Activities for JCP-II 53 8.2.2 Securing funding 56 8.3 Summarizing evaluation of first phase JCP 57
Annex
A Overview of documents prepared by JCP during first phase 60 A.1 Component A – Management and Institutional Development 60 A.2 Component B – WRM planning and IWRM tools 60 A.3 Component C2 – Datasets for River Basins 61 A.4 Component C3 – Lowland / peatland subsidence – future drainability 61 A.5 Component D1 – DEWS 61 A.6 Component D2 – FEWS 61
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Table of Figures
Figure 1-1 Context of activities JCP ...... 3 Figure 2-1 The place of Pola and Rencana in the IWRM process ...... 5 Figure 2-2 Oldeman agro-climatic zones based on TRMM bias-corrected precipitation input showing that the southern part of the basin is relatively dry ...... 7 Figure 2-3 Discussion with local authorities in Merauke during a field visit ...... 8 Figure 2-4 Comparison of dependable rainfall with water requirements for oil palm ...... 9 Figure 2-5 Discussion during the first workshop in Citeko, Bogor...... 10 Figure 3-1 Time evolution of the fraction of precipitation in 4 different intensity classes. ... 14 Figure 3-2 Mean diurnal cycle of rainfall for different time periods (all year round)...... 15 Figure 4-1 Prototype of hydrometeorological database with map interface as implemented in Delft-FEWS...... 19 Figure 4-2 Participants workshop on the use of global datasets for hydrometeorological analysis in areas with sparse data’ ...... 20 Figure 5-1 Sei Ahas, project area in Central Kalimantan...... 24 Figure 5-2 The different steps used to create a peat thickness map...... 25 Figure 5-3 The concept of drainage limit, not all available peat carbon is available for oxidation...... 25 Figure 6-1 Examples of monthly generated drought map...... 30 Figure 6-2 Validation regions for calibration of satellite precipitation data ...... 31 Figure 6-3 Calibration of the different regions ...... 31 Figure 6-4 Working on FEWS/DEWS configuration at Deltares (right) and visit to the Maeslantkering during the study tour to the Netherlands (left)...... 32 Figure 6-5 Some screenshots of the Android application developed by BMKG, in this example the bias-corrected precipitation total for January 2013 is shown...... 33 Figure 7-1 Floods in the city of Jakarta...... 37 Figure 7-2 Floods in the city of Jakarta...... 38 Figure 7-3 National Water Information System under development by JCP ...... 39 Figure 7-4 Data collection from telemetry networks Jakarta basin ...... 39 Figure 7-5 Hydrodynamic modelling in Flood forecasting ...... 40 Figure 7-6 Explaining the FEWS/DEWS system to Public Works Deputy Minister Achmad Hermanto Dardak by PusAir employees...... 41 Figure 7-7 Real-time imported radar images ...... 42
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Figure 7-8 Views of data and forecasts ...... 42 Figure 7-9 On the job training course with PusAir and BMKG employees ...... 43 Figure 7-10 J-FEWS client in the BMGK Control Room ...... 43
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1 Introduction
1.1 Background and objective of JCP
This document presents the results of the first phase of the Joint Cooperation Program (JCP). Initiatives to set-up JCP started in 2010, with the aim to formalize the existing cooperation between the four institutes KNMI, BMKG, PusAir and Deltares. The objective of JCP as stated in the Joint Cooperation Agreement of JCP is to carry out a long-term knowledge sharing and capacity building program between the institutes. The ultimate aim is to increase the state of the art of the knowledge base of all the institutes involved and to strengthen the capacity in Indonesia to plan, develop and manage their (marine and fresh) water resources systems. The institutional strengthening applies not only to the separate Indonesian institutes BMKG and PusAir but also to the very important cooperation between these two institutes. The institutional strengthening applies as well to the two Netherlands institutes KNMI and Deltares as the cooperation provides an opportunity for them to further develop their knowledge, tools and experience. The growing socio-economic pressures have made that climate change and the closely related water resource management have become global issues and requires that KNMI and Deltares continue to be important international players in their respective fields.
Long-standing relations exist between the 4 partners of the Joint Cooperation Programme. The meteorological agencies of BMKG and KNMI have had knowledge exchange programmes for decades. The water management institutes PusAir and Deltares have had joint research and advisory programmes since the 1970s, including the BTAs (Bilateral Technical Assistance projects such as BTA-60 and BTA-155) that were funded by the Netherlands in the 1980s and 1990s. Such Technical Assistance was in some ways a rather one-directional process: international experts had a lead role in the definition of topics, research areas and approaches, in analyses, and in the reporting of results. In the JCP, the approach is more collaborative and two-way. Many of the topics and research areas were defined primarily by the Indonesian counterparts, who are also equal partners in analyses and reporting. This approach aims to enhance the capacity at PusAir and BMKG to independently carry out tasks for Indonesian Government. It also suits the aim of preparing Indonesian organizations for a role as professional counterparts in international projects, with organizations like KNMI and Deltares.
The activities of the JCP are described in the project document of JCP, version October 19, 2010. The project document has been discussed with the Netherlands Embassy and Water Mondiaal. By letter of January 5, 2011 the Netherlands has informed Deltares, as lead partner of the JCP, about their support for the activities of the JCP by means of a subsidy of 1 million Euro. This amount was later increased to 1,2 million Euro when the Partner for Water program added 0,2 million Euro. In the final stages of the first phase an addendum to JCP was provided by the Netherlands Embassy for the involvement of JCP in the analysis of the floods in Jakarta in January 2013. The Indonesian Government on its side provided the financial resources for BMKG and PusAir through increases in their yearly budgets. Upon confirmation of the financial arrangements the JCP partners have started to mobilize their resources. This resulted in the organization of an Inception workshop in Indonesia in the week 24 – 28 January 2011. Day 1 and 2 of that week consisted of joint meetings at PusAir in
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Bandung, followed by 2 days of bilateral meetings and concluded with a wrap-up meeting on day 5 at BMKG in Jakarta. Based on the results of that week an Inception report was drafted and presented to the Indonesian and Netherlands authorities for discussion and approval.
The cooperation should be seen as an elaboration of the Water Mondiaal program (Water at a world wide scale) of the Dutch Government which is an integral part of their policy as defined by the National Water Plan (2010-2015). Water Mondiaal establishes long term collaborative partnerships with 5 delta areas in the world, among others in Indonesia. These partnerships aim to search for effective adaptation strategies in the light of climate change and exchange knowledge and experience to achieve sustainable development objectives (incl. the MDGs). The Ministry Infrastructure and Environment (I&M, Formerly Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management) is the lead Netherlands organisation to establish the cooperation with Indonesia. The two Netherlands partners have close ties with this Ministry as their mandates and their funding are for a large extent determined by this Ministry. The Joint Cooperation described in this document fits perfectly in the intended collaborative partnerships of Water Mondiaal and support the Ministry of I&M in their task in this program.
Two phases have been identified for JCP: a first phase (Initiation Phase) of 2 years and a second phase of 3 years. This report describes the activities and results of the first phase.
1.2 Approach of first phase of JCP – towards sustainable cooperation
The identified JCP components have been defined based on priorities set by BMKG and PusAir during the proposal and Inception period. These components were our starting point. However, given the fact that the main objective of the JCP is to support BMKG and PusAir in their formal governmental tasks with respect to meteorology, hydrology and water management, JCP remained flexible and adjusted its activities when priorities changed or emergencies came up that BMKG and PusAir needed to address. Regular management contacts between the Indonesian and Netherlands partners ensured that priorities were addressed and activities were adjusted accordingly. Each 6 months a formal adjusted planning was made and agreed upon in a management meeting with all JCP partners.
An important element of the first phase of JCP was to lay the foundation for a continued and sustainable cooperation between Netherlands and Indonesian knowledge partners. The primary condition for a sustainable cooperation is the technical and financial added value that the partners see in the cooperation. Showing that added value has been the a major point of the first phase. The cooperation by itself has been successful. First attempts have been made to translate this into a more sustainable organizational structure for JCP.
1.3 Project components
The activities of the first phase of JCP are structured in 5 components: A till E. Some components distinguished 2 or 3 sub-components. Planning and progress reporting on JCP have been based on these (sub) components: x Component A: Management and Institutional Development x Component B: WRM planning (IWRM) and development of IWRM tools x Sub-component C1: Jakarta Extreme Precipitation x Sub-component C2: Water Management Datasets for River Basins x Sub-component C3: Lowland / Peatland subsidence – future drainability
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x Sub-component D1: Drought Mapping and Drought Early Warning (DEWS) x Sub-component D2: Flood Forecasting and Operational Management (FEWS) x Component E: New activities
The JCP components have been placed in context of the overall responsibilities that the Government of Indonesia has for water management. This is illustrated in Figure 1-1. A distinction is made between two perspectives: policy support (mid and long-term planning such as for the Pola and Rencana) and operational support (event and day-to-day decisions). Component B and C focus on the first perspective and Component D on the latter. Component A focuses on the institutional aspect of the JCP and aim at connecting the individual components where relevant. Component E was a budget reservation for new activities that could not be placed (yet) in the other components.
Operational Policy support support Integrated RBM B Flood early Floods warning - flooding D2 - water shortage - water quality End user Drought early Approaches & warning Drought Tools D1
Weather Climate C2 forecast scenarios Historic Data C1 database Real-time data Historic data
Figure 1-1 Context of activities JCP
Most activities defined for the Initiation phase of JCP were completed by the end of 2012.
Component A took care of the managerial tasks involved in JCP. This includes the coordination of the activities of the various sub-components and the contacts with the ‘clients’ of JCP. This component covers also the more general JCP activities such as the study tours. As such this component can be considered to be the ‘engine’ of JCP.
Jointly the partners were responsible for progress reporting, year plans, the report on sustainable JCP cooperation (2013-2015), the development of JCP-II and this report.
1.4 Set-up of this report
This report describes the results of first phase of JCP. Chapters 2 till 7 describe the activities, major achievements and specific deliverables of the various components B, C and D of JCP.
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These are described as rather stand-alone activities but where appropriate connections are made between the different components. In Chapter 8 a kind of assessment is given of these in light of our over-arching aim to establish a more permanent cooperation and possible organizational structure for JCP. This includes the developments of extending JCP with new partners, our finding on possible organizational structures for JCP and the foreseen activities for JCP-II.
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2 WRM planning and Development of IWRM Tools
This chapter describes the results of Component B. On request of DGWRD of the Ministry of PU this component has focused it activities on the on-going river basin planning process in Indonesia, i.e. the development of Pola (strategic) and Rencana (operational) plans. The activities involved: x The support of the Pola process for the Eiland-Digul-Bikuma (EDB) river basin in Papua (described in section 2.1); and x The set-up of a Training-of-Trainer programme for Pola and Rencance development (section 2.2) In addition support has been provided to PusAir to establish a WMO regional training center on hydrology in the institute (section 2.3).
2.1 Supporting the Pola process for the EDB river basin in Papua
This activity has addressed the development of an Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) study in the Einlanden-Digul-Bikuma (EDB) basin in eastern Papua Province as a case study to develop tools and capacity for IWRM. The study involved desk research and computation, and three field visits to the basin. The catchment has been selected to prepare a hydrological assessment of available water resources to serve as a support tool for the revision of the strategic management plan developed at the river basin scale – the Pola. Developing the Pola is a responsibility of the local water basin authority (Balai Wilayah Sungai or BWS), and it is an obligation following the implementation of the 2004 Water Law of the Government of Indonesia. Development of the Pola is requested by the Water Resources Directorate General (DG-WR) of the Indonesia Ministry of Public Works (PU), which ultimately decides on the quality of the submitted plan, accepting or rejecting the final document. DG- WR has requested JCP to support revision of the existing draft Pola for the EDB basin.
Figure 2-1 The place of Pola and Rencana in the IWRM process
The Einlanden-Digul-Bikuma (EDB) river basin is situated in the South Eastern part of Papua province in Indonesia. The surface area of the basin is approximately 133,000 km2, and the current population living in the basin amounts to about 524,000 inhabitants. The EDB is a river basin unit covering the administrative boundaries of 8 kabupaten. Of these, the Merauke
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district is the one where the bulk of the commercial and agricultural activity is currently taking place in the basin.
At present, it is reported that the area for rice cultivation is about 37,000 hectares, where at least one rice harvest a year is obtained from rainfed paddy cultivation. On approximately half of this area a second, irrigated crop is cultivated during the dry season.
The analytical approach for the implementation of the EDB case study has involved four phases, namely:
x the sourcing of global datasets containing the information to generate the input maps for the hydrological modelling, and the consequent preparation of the input maps (global data sets where used in the absence of sufficient local data on hydrology and meteorology); x the construction of the W-Flow hydrological model for the EDB basin with parameterization of model inputs; x the generation of the model discharge series with validation of model results; x the setting up of a multi-criteria analysis to evaluate different water development strategies as foreseen by local and national government authorities
Where applicable, the assessment of the selected criteria for the multi-criteria evaluation has taken into account the outcome of the water availability assessment resulting from the hydrological analysis.
The main inputs used for the analysis have been global datasets providing information for topography (SRTM from NASA), land cover (GlobCover from ESA), soil types (HWSD from FAO), precipitation (TRMM from NASA) and potential evapotranspiration (Global-PET from CSI-CGIAR). These datasets provided the input to elaborate the required maps for the running of the hydrological model that generated the discharge series: the W-Flow model.
17 river sub-catchments have been identified in the EDB basin. River discharge series for the EDB sub-catchments have been generated for the period March 2002 – December 2011, based on the availability of TRMM precipitation data.
The EDB basin is located in the inter-tropical climatic zone, with one dry and one wet season a year. Usually the dry season runs from June to October, and the wet season from November to May. Based on the TRMM input data for precipitation, the average rainfall in the EDB catchment has been estimated to reach 2,760 mm/year. Yet, rainfall patterns show high variability, both in terms of time and space. Over the same observation period (2002-2011), average annual rainfall varies between a total of 1,650mm/year for sub-catchments located in the south-eastern part of the basin (Sakiramke sub-catchment), to 4,240 mm/year for catchments which are more upstream (Lorentz sub-catchment). A positive correlation between precipitation on the one hand, and elevation and distance from the coast on the other has been detected, with precipitation being higher in the mountainous area as compared to coastal areas.
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Figure 2-2 Oldeman agro-climatic zones based on TRMM bias-corrected precipitation input showing that the southern part of the basin is relatively dry
Model output revealed that, for the time period considered, average annual discharge at the EDB catchment scale can be estimated as 7,960 m3/s varying in a range between 4,400 and 10,500 m3/s in the dry and wet season respectively.
In terms of annual mean discharge, the main 4 rivers in the basin are the Einlanden (3,133 m3/s), Digul (2.127 m3/s), Mappi (580 m3/s) and Lorentz (380 m3/s). All the other rivers in the basin have an estimated average annual discharge below the 250 m3/s. Variability in discharge pattern between the dry and the wet season is higher for those sub-basins whose catchments are located in the south-eastern and coastal areas. In these parts of the catchment total rainfall amounts are lower, and so is the rainfall contribution to river discharge.
Given the small size of commercial and industrial activities in the basin, most of the current water demand in the Einlanden-Digul- Bikuma catchment is represented by domestic water use and irrigation. No large demand for water by the energy or industrial sector has been identified.
Comparing water availability with water demand in the basin, it appears that at present there are sufficient water resources available to meet water demand. This statement however makes reference to the basin as a whole, and does not take into consideration water availability and water demand patterns at the
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sub-catchment level, nor water quality aspects, which overall may limit actual water availability in time and space (i.e. river water in the coastal area of Merauke cannot be used for irrigation purposes during the dry season because of salinity intrusion from the sea shore).
The Indonesian government is trying to push the development process of Papua through a number of programmes. A large initiative to accelerate economic growth in the EDB basin is the Merauke Integrated Food and Energy Estate (MIFEE). The initiative was officially launched in August 2010 and currently foresees the development of an area of about 1.2 million hectares for food and energy crops, among which oil palm and sugar cane would cover at least 50% of all allocated area for cultivation.
Figure 2-3 Discussion with local authorities in Merauke during a field visit
In view of the agro-business development envisaged in the MIFEE project, it is expected that sufficient availability of fresh water will determine the actual development potential in the area. Based on the model results and available information in terms of allocated area per type of crop, a comparison between water availability from river discharge and net crop water requirements based on local precipitation patterns has been computed for rice, oil palm and sugar cane.
Results show that for the foreseen extent of agricultural land allocated to rice crops (40,000 ha), effective rainfall will not be sufficient to obtain more than one annual harvest. For cultivation of oil palm plantations (255,000 to 550,000 hectares) severe yield loss is expected in the absence of irrigation. Given the estimated plant water requirements and the location of the plantations, it appears that for 5 to 6 months in a year, precipitation in the Merauke area will not be enough to satisfy the oil palm water requirement. For an average precipitation year, it is expected that sugar cane will not require irrigation. Yet, should a dry year occur in which annual precipitation is 30% lower than the average value, sugarcane plantations would also require supplementary irrigation at the beginning of sowing (October), in the month of February, and in the last 2 months of the development crop stage (May and June).
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400
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t 250 c n e r o p
200 P80th m / e l m b 150 a m
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Figure 2-4 Comparison of dependable rainfall with water requirements for oil palm
Overall, it can be concluded that the selected location for MIFEE in south Papua is not optimal due to the limited amount of rainfall in the area. This is expected to result in lower yields, especially for oil palm and rice, than can be expected for other areas in Indonesia.
A multi-criteria analysis (MCA) has been performed within the IWRM study for the EDB basin to provide an example of an IWRM tool that can be used for the evaluation of different strategies. The scope of the MCA has been that of providing an example to show the impact that different use and management of the water resources can have on society as a whole, not only in economic terms, but also considering social, financial, technical and environmental aspects.
From these considerations it can be concluded that, despite the physical availability of water resources at the basin scale, current and future land development in the catchment should carefully take into account the local availability of sufficient volumes of water at the time period where water demand is higher, also considering the water demand of other water users who rely on the same source for supply.
These considerations should particularly be instructive for policy makers and private sector investors, who should carefully take into account the reduced availability of water in the southern areas of the catchment during the dry season, and the influence that this reduced availability might have on the long-term sustainability of the foreseen agro-business development project in the area.
Workshop activities
The data collection, development of tools and building of capacity for the EDB case study has been carried out jointly by staff of PusAir and Deltares during a number of field visits and workshops: x Workshop on ‘the use of global datasets for hydrometeorological analysis in areas with sparse data’ at BMKG training centre in Citeko, Bogor (13-17 February 2012), with 28 participants (3 from BMKG, 9 from PusAir, 16 from other (governmental) organizations)
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with component C2 (http://www.pusair-pu.go.id/index.php/hal-utama/427-workshop-of- use-of-global-datasets-for-hydro-meteorological-analysis-in-areas-with-sparse-data-). The workshop introduced the various global datasets available and through exercises practiced the processing of these datasets with QGIS. Furthermore, the participants were introduced to the open source distributed hydrological model WFLOW for which the processed global datasets (https://publicwiki.deltares.nl/display/OpenS/wflow+-+PCRaster-Python+ based+distributed+hydrological+models) formed the input.
Figure 2-5 Discussion during the first workshop in Citeko, Bogor
x Follow up workshop on ‘global datasets and hydrological modelling’ at hotel Permata, Bogor (7-11 May 2012), with 24 participants (1 from BMKG, 6 from PusAir and 17 from other (governmental) organizations) with component C2. In this workshop hydrological models for 5 (sub)catchments were setup in WFLOW using global datasets prepared during the previous workshop.
Specific products of this activity
x Report: Einlanden-Digul-Bikuma basin Case Study Report – September 27, 2012 x Powerpoint: IWRM WS Einlanden–Digul–Bikuma – Jakarta, October 18, 2012 x Workshop material 13-17 February 2012 on Use of Global Datasets for hydro- meteorological analysis in areas with sparse data o Powerpoints of presentations x Workshop material 7-11 May 2012 of 2nd session Use of Global Datasets for hydro- meteorological analysis in areas with sparse data o Powerpoints of presentations o Report: Instruction Manual and exercises, May 2012
2.2 Setting up a Training-of-Trainers programme for Pola and Rencana development
DG Water Resources of Ministry PU, ir. Moh. Hassan, has requested the Joint Cooperation Programme (JCP) to provide a Training-of-Trainers (ToT) in IWRM planning. This training should be based on the planning approach (Pola, Rencana) that is presently being followed in
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Indonesia. This planning approach is still evolving and, where needed, can and will be adjusted based on the experiences with the first Pola’s and Rencana’s.
Initially, only a ToT has been asked for. The idea was that a one-week ToT would be given by Netherlands experts to about 10 senior governmental officials, the trainers. This should be followed by a 2 week training provided by the trained seniors to one or more groups of governmental staff members and consultants involved in Pola and Rencana development. During discussions with various PU staff, a broader need for training was brought up, and options were identified. In order to make use of the experiences with developing the present generation of Pola’s and Rencana’s it was decided to organize an assessment workshop. This workshop was organized on 12 and 13 November 2012 in Bandung. The workshop aimed to bring forward the lessons learned from the first Pola’s and Rencana’s and possible ways to improve the current approach. In total about 40 people participated in and contributed to the workshop. The participants all had been involved in developing the present Pola’s and Rencana’s and came from DGWRD, various BWS/BBWS, provinces, academia and consultants. In addition some resource persons were invited with more general experience in IWRM planning in Indonesia.
The conclusion of the workshop was that the implementation of the IWRM planning of the Pola and Rencana should be seen as a learning process. This workshop itself was a step in that learning process: the participants learned from each other’s issues and they heard suggestions for improvements. Based on these lessons learned suggestions were made on improvements of the approach and process. An overview of the most important suggestions were the following: x Focus the Pola on main strategic issues, incl. o move the selection of strategy to the end of the Pola process o include benefit and cost information of the main infrastructural measures in the Pola x Adjust the Pedoman on Pola and draft Pedoman on Rencana o to reflect the above o to simplify the process o to describe the required minimum level of detail for information collection x Provide analytical support for the preparation of Pola and Rencana (data, tools, etc.) x Provide capacity building and training x Specify the relation with plans of other sectors and the national objectives (top down from national to islands to basins)
Based on the outcome of the workshop specific suggestions were made on needed training in IWRM Planning. First of all the conclusion was that training is needed at various levels. The following target groups for this training can be distinguished: x senior ‘trainer’ level (ToT) x senior governmental level, involved in decision making about Pola’s and Rencana’s x medior and senior governmental level, involved in the guidance of preparing the Pola’s and Rencana’s x junior governmental staff and consultants, involved in the preparation of the Pola’s and Rencana’s Each group requires a separate training program. First outlines were made for four training programs.
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Specific products of this activity x Report: Assessment Workshop on Pola and Rencana development in Indonesia (Bandung – 12-13 November 2012) and Recommendations for Training
2.3 Supporting PusAir in establishing a WMO Regional Training Centre on Hydrology
Within the Joint Cooperation Programme, Component B has also supported PusAir in the initial steps for the establishment of a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Training Center on Hydrology (RTC-H) at the PusAir premises in Bandung. JCP has assisted in the strategic thinking about the regional hub role of both institutes and has contributed directly to the preparation of curricula and training materials.
The background is that PusAir is already responsible for organizing and conducting national training in hydrology as a yearly program since 1985. The training program has focused mainly on surface water monitoring and water resources research activities. On the basis of this national experience and capabilities and a willingness to collaborate with other national and international institutions, Indonesia is now embarking on actions towards the establishment of a Regional Training Centre for Hydrology for the Southwest Pacific (RA V).
The Centre will act as coordination and support hub for training, furthering education and capacity building as well as information networking activities on hydrology and water resources at national and international levels in the region. A strong link with WMO enables the Centre to disseminate and utilize the experience, knowledge and technologies represented by the international network of WMO. The RTC-H (Regional Training Centre for Hydrology) will be created with the aim to bridge the large gap between hydrologic scientific research and its applications as solutions to important social problems that involve water in particular with respect to River Basin Organizations (RBO). Moreover, by bringing together hydrologists from the various countries of RA V it is expected that the participants will stimulate each other with experiences and innovative ideas. In this way RTC-H might function as a platform for an exchange of knowledge, experience and development for the region in the field of hydrology. A series of teaching modules, SGM (Standard, Guidance, and Manual) prototype systems and demonstration projects offered by the RTC-H will enhance, inspire, and form the basis for successful hydrological and water resources management services that preserve natural resources, support economic interests, and save lives. The RTC-H will be a public non-profit organization to be operated under the Research Centre for Water Resources (RCWR, PusAir) of the Ministry of Public Works.
The establishment of RTC-H is mainly a responsibility of PusAir. They will do this in close collaboration with BMKG which represents Indonesia in WMO. The Netherlands partners in JCP (KNMI and Deltares) may provide support to the establishment of RTC-H as well as to the actual training activities of RTC-H once it is officially established.
Specific products of this activity x Project Document / Proposal for WMO Regional Training Centre for Hydrology (RTC- H) for the Southwest Pacific (RA V), PusAir, December 2010 x Document on Integration of the Joint Cooperation Program with the WMO RA5 Training Center for Hydrology, WMO, Deltares, May 2011
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2.4 Summary of outcome of activity
x PusAir has revived their role in supporting Pola and Rencana activities x PusAir and BWS staff have been introduced to new data sources and assessment methods, especially suitable for areas with limited data x The required update of the Pola for Einlanden-Digul-Bikuma basin has been supported by a hydrological analysis based on global data sets and an outline of an IWRM approach x Experiences with present generation of IWRM plans are assessed, recommendations for improvement are made and suggestions for training (incl. ToT) has been provided to the Ministry of PU x PusAir is established as a WMO regional training center on hydrology (RTC-H)
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3 Jakarta Extreme Precipitation
3.1 PhD research on Jakarta Extreme Precipitation
The activity ‘Jakarta Extreme Precipitation’ is carried out under sub-component C1. The research is set-up as a PhD-project. The selection of the PhD student has taken a lot of time and for that reason the real activity could only start on 1 May 2012. The PhD student (Siswanto) was recruited from BMKG, and the schedule of expected activities and results produced included: x an analysis of trends in observed (extreme) precipitation in the Jakarta area, bearing in mind the significance of this for flood forecasting and trends x explaining the origin of the trends in precipitation extremes, in the context of climate change, urbanisation and other phenomena x executing model simulations and scenario construction for the expected extreme precipitation in this area.
The PhD programme will be continued after the finalization of this first JCP phase. At the end of the first phase the precipitation trend analysis has been completed and is presently being documented in a set of scientific publications.
A wealth of high quality precipitation data has become available through the DiDaH digitization programme being executed. From this programme hourly precipitation data are available for the period between 1866–1980, and these data is complemented by operational observations obtained from BMKG for the recent period 2000 – 2010. Two major results have become clear from analysis of these data.
First, over the past century the total annual precipitation shows a reduction in the period prior to 1960 and an increase in the recent decades, but regarded over the entire century the rianfall does not show a strong trend. However, the fraction of rain that fall as extreme precipitation (>50 mm/day) does show a marked increase since the mid ’60-ies (see Figure 3-1). This implies that more rain falls in heavy rainfall events, but the total rainfall is not changing markedly.
Figure 3-1 Time evolution of the fraction of precipitation in 4 different intensity classes. As the intensity increases from 0.1 mm/day to >50 mm/day the fraction of rain falling in this class shows an increase over time.
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An analysis of the mean diurnal cycle of the precipitation, shown in Figure 3-2, points at clear differences between the early 20th century and the recent decade. During the monsoon season rainfall is related to northwesterly inflow of moist air, and this inflow does not show a strong variation during the day. In the most recent decade, however, a clear peak of precipitation is observed in the early morning hours. It is speculated that this may be related to an intensified land-breeze circulation in opposite direction of the mean monsoonal inflow, which may generate more moisture convergence and thus rainfall at the time of the highest land-breeze wind speed. This hypothesis needs to be verified in later studies.
During the dry season, a clear late afternoon rainfall peak is related to local convection, generated by high surface temperatures. In the recent decade this peak is intensified and delayed with about two hours. This phenomenon is possibly related to the strong increase in urbanization, that may generate additional surface heating or affect the aerosol load of the atmosphere. Also this hypothesis needs to be verified.
Figure 3-2 Mean diurnal cycle of rainfall for different time periods (all year round). During the recent decade (red line) the afternoon peak is shifted to later hours, and the morning peak is intensified.
3.2 Other activities
The PhD research described above is carried out as part of the cooperation between KNMI and BMKG. Ultimately the PhD graduation will take place at the University of Utrecht. KNMI and BMKG have been cooperating for many years at various activities. At the start of JCP KNMI has expressed that for organizational reasons and for the time being they would keep the on-going activities between KNMI and BMKG outside JCP. At the other end KNMI realized that some of their cooperation activities have a strong relation with JCP and a good exchange of information on these activities was established between KNMI and JCP. This was in particular the case with the DiDaH project. Based on the successful cooperation in the first phase of JCP KNMI has decided to include also their ‘other’ activities with BMKG in the next phase of JCP.
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SACA&D / DiDaH During the course of the JCP the DiDaH project continued in full operation. Originally it was planned to conclude the DiDaH project early 2012, but it was decided to extend its duration to allow more time for implementation of the SACA&D historical data system, additional training of Indonesian staff, and prepare for extension to other South-East Asian countries, which is highly supported by WMO. These activities are formally not affiliated to the Joint Cooperation Programme but will be embedded in JCP if a second phase will be executed.
Lectures and Visits A closing workshop of DiDaH in Citeko in April 2012 was combined with a kick-off workshop of the Extreme Precipitation project. Invited speakers from Indonesian universities and ministries, from universities in Australia and Singapore, and from Dutch institutes were exchanging information and experience on many hydro-climatological aspects relevant for West Java.
Another activity in this flied was the participation of KNMI in a specific Climate Information course for BMKG that was given by the University of Twente. Guest lectures from KNMI staff were given at this course, including a work session on using web-based climate data explorers.
Research Proposal on hydrometeorological information and food security In the context of a research call from NWO (Urbanizing Deltas in the World) a research proposal was developed aiming at improved usage of hydrometeorological and agricultural information for improving crop yield and food security. All JCP partners plus partners from Wageningen & Bogor University and ELEAF have formed a solid consortium. This research will be included in the next phase of JCP, also in case the application for NWO funding will not be successful.
Results and Products The following reports and documents have been produced: x Poster presentation “Extreme precipitation trends in Jakarta” by Siswanto, GL van Oldenborgh and B van den Hurk at the European Geophysical Union Conference in Vienna, april 2013 x A draft version of a manuscript “Extreme precipitation trends in Jakarta” by Siswanto et al, to be submitted to the peer-reviewed Journal of Climatology x Presentations at the kick-off workshop in Citeko by Siswanto, Prof. B van den Hurk and Dr GJ van Oldenborgh x Guest lectures by A Kattenberg, Siswanto and B van den Hurk at the Climate Change training course of ITC-BMKG x Article at KNMI website: Floods in Manila August 2012” by Siswanto, G.J. van Oldenborgh and G. Lenderink x Presentation for Vietnam delegation visiting KNMI (nov 2012): “Manila Floods and Extreme precipitation event” by Siswanto.
3.3 Summary of outcome of activity
x Start of a PhD research, strengthening the academic quality of the activities of BMKG. x KNMI to strengthen their involvement in JCP, extending their cooperation with other institutes in Indonesia.
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x Development of further research activities (PhD and applied) to be carried out by staff members of JCP partners
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4 Water Management Datasets for River Basins
PusAir, with BMKG, has a responsibility to support river basin and water management organizations throughout Indonesia through A) provision of data and B) capacity building. For this, they need to develop and disseminate information that is i) accurate, ii) up to date, iii) comprehensive and iv) available for all major river basins and lowland areas in Indonesia.
Such data are generally not available for most areas in Indonesia, whereas the number and accuracy of useful global datasets has increased rapidly in recent years. Rather than just focussing on the collection of these datasets for specific river basins as was discussed during the Inception phase of the project, these datasets were also used for other support activities: (i) hydrological modelling to support PusAir in Pola and Rencana development (with component B) and (ii) application of datasets from Global Circulation Models (GCM) to support BMKG in answering questions on climate change impacts on Indonesia. This activity is carried out under component C.1.
4.1 Activities
Global spatial datasets on surface elevation (SRTM-90), landcover (GlobCover), soils (Digital Soil Map of the World), potential evapotranspiration (CGIAR-PET) and precipitation (TRMM- 3B42RT) were collected for the whole of Indonesia and processed to 7 different catchments for use in hydrological modeling (together with Component B). Processing included change of data formats and resampling to a different spatial resolution.
The satellite precipitation data were validated with observations from ground stations in 6 different areas in Indonesia which resulted in a joint publication in HESS (Vernimmen et al., 2012) (together with Component D1).
Within the Delft-FEWS system a prototype of a hydrological database with map interface was setup (Figure 4-1). However, due to the changing focus of this component on hydrological modeling, rather than collection of hydrometeorological data this prototype was not brought further.
In addition to the above mentioned spatial datasets, climatic scenario data from 7 GCMs were obtained from the IPCC website and processed for use in climate impact assessments. Processing of these climate datasets included downscaling and bias correction with a global baseline dataset (CRU-ERA40).
The counterparts were trained in basic validation methods of rainfall, the processing of spatial datasets and the application of them in hydrological modeling through five 3-5 day different technical training sessions and workshops listed in next section during which other government organizations such as BIG (former Bakosurtanal), LAPAN and various Balai participated as well. These training days have not only helped increase the ability of the different counterparts to handle these often large datasets and obtain more hands on experience in application of these datasets, particularly important to support the development of Pola and Rencana which are vital in sustainable management of Indonesia’s water resources. An additional advantage of these technical gatherings has been that staff from different organizations got acquainted with each other and worked closely together in mixed
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groups on the various assignments. In our view this joint and mixed training has been a real advantage of the joint cooperation program.
Figure 4-1 Prototype of hydrometeorological database with map interface as implemented in Delft-FEWS. By clicking on various map segments and hydrometeorological locations time series of observation data both in graphical and tabular format is displayed. General catchment info is also displayed.
All of the datasets are now shared both offline (i.e. GCM scenario’s) and online (real-time observed satellite precipitation) amongst partners and with other (end) users. Increased certainty on data availability allows an emphasis shift to the quality and consistency of the data in relation to their use. An example is the evaluation of TRMM satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring included in the DEWS/FEWS platform (see component D1).
Furthermore, the trained skills obtained by BMKG staff during the training workshop on ‘Climate Impact Assessment for Indonesia using GCM data and Delft-OMS’, has already been used to further analyse IPCC scenario A2 (during the training scenario A1B was used) in support of the 'Buku Perubahan Iklim' and have already shared the gained knowledge with regional staff during a training.
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Figure 4-2 Participants workshop on the use of global datasets for hydrometeorological analysis in areas with sparse data’ BMKG training centre in Citeko, Bogor (13-17 February 2012)
4.2 Deliverables and technical training / workshops
For the first phase of the activity the deliverables from the project are as follows:
1. Joint publication (Deltares/BMKG): Vernimmen, R. R. E., Hooijer, A., Mamenun, Aldrian, E., and van Dijk, A. I. J. M.: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 133-146, doi:10.5194/hess-16-133-2012, 2012 (with component D1) 2. Various nationwide datasets: i.e. bias-corrected real-time observed satellite precipitation, downscaled GCM scenario’s 3. Delft-OMS system containing a database with bias-corrected and downscaled data from 7 GCMs in which Oldeman classifications and provincial precipitation climatologies for the future and current climate can be calculated. 4. (uncalibrated) hydrological models for EDB, Citarum, Bengawan Solo, Jratunseluna and Kali Garang (sub)catchments (with component B)
Whereas the following has been provided to the counterparts during the various training sessions: 5. Capacity building and training in the collection, processing and application of spatial datasets for use in hydrological modeling and climate impact assessments for staff of PusAir, BMKG, Balai, BIG, ITB, LAPAN, PJT2 and UGM 6. Instruction manual and exercises on the Use of Global Datasets for Hydro- Meteorological Analysis in Areas with Sparse Data (with component B) 7. USB stick with global datasets and software (with component B)
Technical training / workshops In the framework of this activity five technical training sessions / workshops were organized:
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1. Technical training on ‘Validation of TRMM satellite precipitation and ground stations’ at BMKG, Jakarta (29-31 March 2011), with 17 participants (6 from PusAir, 11 from BMKG). During this 3-day training the use of satellite precipitation data, basic rainfall validation methods and the use of validated ground station data in validating satellite precipitation data were discussed and practiced, and staff was introduced to the Delft- OMS software. Staff from PusAir and BMKG gave presentations on the use of satellite data as well as on drought indicators currently used by the organizations (with component D1; 2. Technical training in ‘Use of Delft-OMS and setup of prototype implementation of hydrometeorological database and interface’ at PusAir, Bandung (28-29 July 2011), with 21 participants (10 from PusAir, 11 from BMKG). Training focused on setting up automatic generation of html reports containing hydrometeorological summary data for different river basins with Delft-OMS software; 3. Workshop on ‘The use of global datasets for hydrometeorological analysis in areas with sparse data’ at BMKG training centre in Citeko, Bogor (13-17 February 2012), with 28 participants (3 from BMKG, 9 from PusAir, 16 from other (governmental) organizations) with component B (http://www.pusair-pu.go.id/index.php/hal- utama/427-workshop-of-use-of-global-datasets-for-hydro-meteorological-analysis-in- areas-with-sparse-data-). The workshop introduced the various global datasets available and through exercises practiced the processing of these datasets with QGIS. Furthermore, the participants were introduced to the open source distributed hydrological model WFLOW (https://publicwiki.deltares.nl/display/ OpenS/wflow+- +PCRaster-Python+based+distributed+hydrological+models) for which the processed global datasets formed the input; 4. Follow up workshop on ‘Global datasets and hydrological modelling’ at hotel Permata, Bogor (7-11 May 2012), with 24 participants (1 from BMKG, 6 from PusAir and 17 from other (governmental) organizations) with component B. In this workshop hydrological models for 5 (sub)catchments were setup in WFLOW using global datasets prepared during the previous workshop; 5. Workshop on ‘Climate Impact Assessment for Indonesia using GCM data and Delft- OMS’, at BMKG, Jakarta (4-8 June 2012), with 11 participants from BMKG (http://www.bmkg.go.id/BMKG_Pusat/Sestama/Humas/WORKSHOP_PENGKAJIAN_ DAMPAK_IKLIM_MENGGUNAKAN_GCM_DATA_DAN_DELFT_OMS.bmkg); at the end of the workshop a presentation was given by BMKG participants to their management.
4.3 Recommended next steps
Calibration and validation of hydrological models
Now that the counterparts have gained experience and knowledge on the existence of available spatial datasets and application of those datasets in setting up and running a hydrological model for a river basin the logical next step would be to focus on the calibration and validation of the hydrological model. For this calibration and validation of the hydrological model, hydrometeorological observations are needed, which in itself need to be validated first. Only then, after proper validation, can the hydrological model be further used in impact assessments due to climate change but also under different land use and socio economic scenario’s.
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Further improvement of the hydrological modelling suit set up for the Citarum basin, including calibration and validation, has already started by an Indonesian student of the Erasmus- Mundi program, Ms. Tarasinta Perwitasari, who started in March 2013 at Deltares on a 6-mo internship for which supervision is paid by Deltares R&D funding. The improvement includes the interaction with water distribution and reservoir management of the Saguling-Cirata- Jatiluhur cascade reservoirs. Upon completion of the study, improvements to the modelling suit could be connected to the operational FEWS/DEWS system, which would also support PJT2 who are currently working on a decision support system for the reservoirs in the Citarum river basin.
Generating baseline meteorological dataset for downscaling GCM scenario data
In order for Indonesia to properly assess the impact of climate change on its water resources it is recommended that instead of using the ERA40-reanalysis dataset, which is expected to be based on only a limited amount of ground stations in Indonesia, that Indonesia generates its own baseline dataset using all available validated ground station data (including the Didah dataset).
4.4 Summary of outcome of activity
x PusAir and BMKG have developed capacity in the processing of global spatial datasets and applying those in setting up distributed hydrological models x BMKG has developed capacity in methods of processing and statistical downscaling of GCM scenario's
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5 Assessing Lowland / Peatland subsidence and future drainability
Lowland/peatland subsidence is a crucial issue for Indonesia but receives insufficient attention. Some 5-15% of the countries’ land area is subsiding or will subside, and may eventually become undrainable and unproductive. This loss of productivity will happen very fast, in many areas within 25-50 years after drainage (it is already observed in some areas, although the cause is rarely correctly identified), as biological oxidation is temperature dependent and therefore much higher in the tropics than in temperate climates.
Indonesian policy makers are largely unaware of this threat, or choose to ignore it, so currently at least two priority policy targets aim to deforest and drain much of what remains of Indonesia’s forested peatlands: i) promotion of industrial export crops (palm oil and pulp), and ii) the national food security policy. These policies will probably fail if they target peatlands, as agriculture on most of this land can not be made sustainable. The urgency of this issue has become clear to PusAir management in 2010/2011 as they started receiving requests for advice from policy makers in this area. As PusAir does not have the expertise, such advice can presently not be provided. That is why they asked Deltares / JCP to help PusAir develop capacity on this topic. As this request was formalized when JCP was already underway, the activities started about 6 months later than other activities.
The activity, carried out as component C.3, has focused on supporting the internal PusAir activity ‘Peatlands and Climate Change’ (funded by an Indonesian DIPA grant, 2011-2015), which consisted largely of setting up an Experimental Field Station near Sei Ahas in Central Kalimantan. Staff of UGM, who have their own research programme on this topic, was also involved in most of the activities.
5.1 Activities
In the first two workshops held in Bandung and Banjarmasin (26-28 July 2011, 30-31 January 2012), the participants were introduced to the peatlands of Indonesia, their development and the impact of peatland drainage on carbon emissions, subsidence and flooding as well as some of the science behind these impacts. Peatland drainage was also put in the international context and examples were provided on the effect of drainage in areas all over the world, including the Netherlands and the Everglades in the US, and the implications for peatland water management. In between presentations, simple exercises were carried out to further help understand the presented material. Apart from the presentations given by the experts of Deltares, presentations were also given by representatives of Balai Rawa and other Indonesian organizations, presenting ideas on peatland water management and hydrological rehabilitation and discussing design and location criteria of hydrological intervention structures and dams.
During these workshops, which were well visited by over 20 participants at each occasion, it became clear that due to the complexity of the subject, that in some ways is more scientific than technical, and for which few in PusAir have the background and training, it was more
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useful to continue with hands-on technical trainings with less participants to really work on concrete examples.
A total of two of these technical gatherings, with fewer participants but longer duration of 3-5 days, were held in both Jakarta and Banjarmasin, where the focus was on the Sei Ahas project area in Central Kalimantan (Figure 5-1), where PusAir (Balai Rawa) since 2011 with JCP support has set up a DIPA-funded peatland experimental research station on shallow peat with the main aim of demonstrating and studying water management options in shallow peat areas for agricultural purposes. The counterparts involved in these smaller technical trainings (staff from Balai Rawa Banjarmasin and a student from UGM), were trained in aspects of peatland carbon and subsidence modelling, not only the science behind it through reading of some selected scientific papers but also hands on application in spatial modelling using available raster calculation techniques in the free QGIS software package.
Lokasi Studi Sei Ahas
Figure 5-1 Sei Ahas, project area in Central Kalimantan.
As a first step, a peat thickness map from available peat thickness measurement points in the project area was created. Peat thickness measurements collected by PusAir were extended with peat thickness measurement point available from other projects (e.g. KFCP). Before the map was created consistency checks between the different datasets were carried out. These checks revealed unreliable measurements which were discarded in the further map creation. In the map creation, various interpolation techniques were employed (kriging, inverse distance, manual) to understand the effect of the different techniques on the result (Figure 5-2).
After the peat thickness map was created, this was combined with a high resolution LiDAR elevation map for the project to create a peat volume map which together with bulk density and carbon content was used to calculate the available total carbon stock. Particular attention was given to the different components of peat subsidence (oxidation, compaction,
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consolidation and fire) and how these can be determined through analysis of bulk density samples throughout the peat profile. It was discussed that not all of the peat carbon stock is available for oxidation after drainage, and the amount which is available depends on the drainage limit. The concept of drainage limit was discussed (see Figure 5-3) and various drainage threshold definitions were used to demonstrate the effect on the amount of carbon available for oxidation. In addition, emission calculations were made under different scenario's, assuming a certain rise in canal water level after canal blocking and the effect this has on the reduction in subsidence rate and fire frequency in terms of carbon emission reduction.
Data point shape File Peta elevasi Sei Raster Calculation Untuk Menghasilkan Peta Elevasi Dasar Interpolasi Gambut (Peta LIDAR dikurangi dari point dengan Peta Kontur Kedalaman shape file menjadi peta
Peta kontur kedalaman Peta elevasi dasar gambut
Figure 5-2 The different steps used to create a peat thickness map.
Figure 5-3 The concept of drainage limit, not all available peat carbon is available for oxidation.
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The carbon loss and emission calculations and the analysis thereof, were written down in a report in Bahasa Indonesia and the main findings were digested into a paper written in English, which will be presented by PusAir staff at the 4th International Seminar of HATHI, 6- 8 September 2013, Yogyakarta.
5.2 Deliverables and technical training / workshops
For the first phase of the activity the deliverables from the project are as follows:
1. The physical instruments, designs and monitoring activities at the Sei Ahas Experimental Station will last to at least 2014 and hopefully beyond, continuing generation of a valuable dataset and capacity building opportunities. 2. A report in Bahasa Indonesia was produced by PusAir, presenting the methods and results of calculations for the Sei Ahas Experimental Station areas of carbon stock, subsidence and carbon loss that were supported by JCP. 3. A design was produced for shiplocks that are suitable in peatland water management, allowing passage by small boats while keeping water levels high, for implementation in 2013-14. 4. Presentations at the kolokium PusAir 2011 and World Delta Summit 2011 (Jakarta, 22-23 November 2011)
Whereas the following has been provided to the counterparts during the various training sessions: 5. Powerpoint presentations on peatland subsidence and modeling incl. exercises in Excel.
Technical trainings/workshops
In the framework of this activity four technical training sessions / workshops were organized:
1. First workshop on peatland subsidence and modeling at PusAir, Bandung (26-28 July 2011), with an introduction to the peatlands of Indonesia, their development and the impact of peatland drainage on carbon emissions, subsidence and flooding as well as some of the science behind these impacts. In between presentations, simple exercises were carried out to further help understand the presented material. 2. Second workshop on peatland subsidence and modeling at Balai Rawa, Banjarmasin (30-31 January 2012), with presentations on examples of international experience in peatland subsidence and research including recent findings in Indonesia as well as presentations on subsidence due to groundwater abstraction in Jakarta and subsidence monitoring work in the KFCP project area in Central Kalimantan. Apart from the presentations given by the experts of Deltares, presentations were also given by representatives of Balai Rawa and the KFCP water management expert, presenting ideas on peatland water management and hydrological rehabilitation and discussing design and location criteria of hydrological intervention structures and dams. 3. First technical training at PU, Jakarta (9-13 July 2012), where the 5 participants were working on the Sei Ahas peat thickness data, creating a peat map, calculating peat volume and available carbon stock. Calculation of carbon available for oxidation
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assuming different drainage threshold levels. Calculate emission reduction under various rehabilitation scenario’s. 4. Second technical training at Balai Rawa, Banjarmasin (8-11 October 2012). Continuation of the first technical training with a focus on emission modeling and on the possibilities of using bulk density samples from peat profiles to determine the various components of subsidence.
5.3 Recommended next steps The C3 activities started later than other JCP activities, by mid 2012 – because the component was not originally planned but was added later at the explicit request of PusAir and PU management who feel they have insufficient capacity to perform the peatland-related research and planning duties that are expected from them. When starting up the C3 work, it was found that PusAir, including the Balai Rawa in Banjarmasin, indeed has no background and capacity in this area: the ‘lowland management’ effort has traditionally been focussed on mineral areas even though these make up only one-third of Indonesia’s lowlands and even though most lowland development in the last 20 years has been in peatland. A lack of interest in being involved in this new area of peatland issues at the workfloor level (as opposed to the management level), was one of the obstacles that had to be overcome in C3.
As a result of this late start and very limited capacity base, the C3 work has focussed on training and assessments around the PusAir Experimental Station in Sei Ahas alone. Development of a nationwide lowland Digital Elevation Model, and subsequent modelling of the subsidence and flooding future scenarios for all of the lowlands of Indonesia, has not started in JCP as the PusAir capacity first needed to be boosted. Participation of PU and PusAir staff in QANS, where these large-scale activities were started, has been very limited. As involvement of both PU and PusAir in this topic is still critical to developing and enforcing sustainable strategies, as a counterweight to the agriculture organizations that now dominate the lowland agenda but do not have the required knowledge of water management and land subsidence, we propose to extend the C3 nationwide activities to the second phase of JCP. Apart from PU and PusAir, involvement of BIG (formerly Bakosurtanal, for the link with national map making), UGM (Gaja Madah University in Yogyakarta, for sustainable land management expertise and soil science), ITB (Institute for technology Bandung, for subsidence expertise), and possibly IPB (Bogor) would be required: rather than trying to generate capacity in all these areas in PusAir, it would be better to force and support better collaboration with existing knowledge centres, which is currently underdeveloped.
Continuation of C3 may most effectively be done by linking up to the NORAD-funded SPPC (Sustainable Peatlands for People and Climate) programme that Deltares will be implementing with Wetlands International from mid 2013 to late 2015. SPPC will be picking up where QANS left off, expanding the scale and increasing the accuracy of peatland map improvements for which methods were developed in QANS, and starting the subsidence and flooding assessments that could not be started in QANS. These activities are ambitious and will take many years, and they can only be useful if Indonesian organizations are truly involved as has insufficiently been the case so far because of capacity-, financial- and political obstacles. Substantial capacity building over a longer period is required, and this is only possible through a longer-term capacity building programme like JCP.
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5.4 Summary of outcome of activity
x PusAir has developed a Peatland Experimental Station in Central Kalimantan near Sei Ahas along the Kapuas River, funded by DIPA financing (Indonesian research funds) and supported by JCP through 4 workshops (6 to 25 participants, 1 to 5 days) and continuous cooperation in design, planning and communication. x The larger workshops on peatland subsidence have proven helpful in terms of creating interest and increased awareness and knowledge of this problem which strengthens PusAir and PU in their roles towards the government in providing analysis and information. Specifically, Pusair has started working with PU in Jakarta and the Balai Besar for Kapuas river basin in Banjarmasin, on issues of sustainable peatland management..
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6 Drought Mapping and Drought Early Warning
Indonesia is a tropical country, receiving abundant annual rainfall. In many areas, however, rainfall is highly seasonal, and sometimes erratic. These climatic characteristics are the main reason for the country having to cope with both serious droughts and floods. In many regions in Indonesia prolonged water deficits lasting several months occasionally cause failures of water supply systems and of rain fed and irrigated crops. These periods of drought frequently contribute to enhanced fire risk in forests and peatland areas. Improved monitoring and understanding of dry season rainfall patterns, in time and space, is therefore important for the country to be prepared for drought-related events such as water shortages, crop failures and fires.
Until recently there was no comprehensive drought monitoring and forecasting system in Indonesia. Since the start of the JCP, the partners have been working hard together to set up such a system which is now successfully in operation since late 2012. Up to date drought frequency and severity maps are currently available which help create an understanding of distribution of drought vulnerabilities. The availability of these maps directly benefit many aspects of water and land management in Indonesia, among them drought preparedness and climate proofing of agricultural and water supply systems.
The Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) provides drought monitoring on a national scale, using bias corrected TRMM 3B42RT precipitation using the method described in Vernimmen et al. (2012) and the CGIAR-CSI Global Potential Evapotranspiration dataset. The DEWS automatically generates drought maps on a daily to monthly basis and disseminates the data using the web (http://iklim1.bmkg.go.id/idfewsbmkgdt/Droughts/DroughtMapsMonth_English.html) where maps are available in both English and Bahasa Indonesia. For expert users, an operator client is available for further analysis of the data that is used for generation the drought maps. Next to national drought monitoring, the DEWS also performs derived analyses, like fire risk monitoring in peatlands. Ongoing activities include the incorporation of seasonal weather forecasts (ECMWF) in order to provide next to monitoring a national system with drought forecasting capabilities.
The activity is carried out as Component D.1 of JCP.
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Figure 6-1 Examples of monthly generated drought map. Top: monthly bias-corrected TRMM satellite precipitation total for February 2013. Bottom: Oldeman agroclimatic map based on bias-corrected TRMM satellite precipitation for February 2013.
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6.1 Activities
An important input to the DEWS are the real-time observations of precipitation by satellite. These observations as available in the TRMM 3B42RT data product were not taken at face value but rather were validated first with ground stations in 6 different areas in Indonesia (Figure 6-2 and Figure 6-3). This work is described in a joint publication in HESS with BMKG and CSIRO (Vernimmen et al., 2012). The experience gained by analysing satellite precipitation data and validation with ground station data, inspired Mrs. Mamenun from BMKG to use this work as a basis for her MSc thesis ('Pengembangan model penduga curah hujan bulanan menggunakan data satelit TRMM pada tiga pola hujan di Indonesia') in which she evaluated TRMM satellite precipitation data in additional areas having a different rainfall pattern (equatorial and local) compared to the published study which used data for areas having a monsoonal rainfall pattern. With this thesis, she graduated from IPB, early 2013.
Figure 6-2 Validation regions for calibration of satellite precipitation data
Figure 6-3 Calibration of the different regions
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An important part in the development of the DEWS was further to get acquainted with the Delft-OMS software and to make the system operational within the IT infrastructure of both BMKG and PusAir.
The counterparts were trained in basic validation methods of rainfall (together with Component C2) and the usage of Delft-OMS software in setting up the different components of the DEWS (and FEWS; together with component D2). Training was provided in both Indonesia as well as through a 3 week study tour in the Netherlands, see Appendix XX. During the various trainings, counterpart staff also gave presentations on relevant topics pertaining to the content of the training, for example on the different drought indicators used in Indonesia.
Figure 6-4 Working on FEWS/DEWS configuration at Deltares (right) and visit to the Maeslantkering during the study tour to the Netherlands (left).
The DEWS is operational since mid-2012 and publishes drought maps on a monthly basis on a BMKG webserver where maps are available in both English and Bahasa Indonesia: http://iklim1.bmkg.go.id/idfewsbmkgdt/Droughts/DroughtMapsMonth_English.html. In addition to the publication on the web, the drought maps can also be viewed on a smartphone through an Android application developed by BMKG (Figure 6-5).
Drought maps are not only showing the monthly observed rainfall but also show drought indicators as derived from the rainfall such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Oldeman agroclimatic map is produced as well.
The validation work of the satellite precipitation data and the development of the DEWS has been presented at numerous national and international workshops1 by both Deltares as well as BMKG staff, whereas the Delft-OMS software and DEWS/FEWS application was introduced to regional BMKG staff during the annual BMKG technical training in climate change.
The development of the DEWS/FEWS system has not only improved cooperation between different government organizations involved but also within BMKG the possibilities of the
1 (i) kolokium PusAir 2011 (Bandung), (ii) World Delta Summit 2011 (Jakarta, 22-23 November 2011), (iii) Didah workshop 2012 (Citeko; see also component C1) and (iv)CORDEX International Workshop 2012 (Korea)
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Delft-OMS software generated interest in the possibilities of automating processes which require several manual steps before (drought) maps can be published on the website. One of those automation steps is the generation of the SPI drought map using ground observations. As part of ongoing activities these are now being implemented by BMKG staff with support from Deltares.
Other ongoing activities include the support and maintenance of the DEWS/FEWS system by Deltares staff.
Figure 6-5 Some screenshots of the Android application developed by BMKG, in this example the bias-corrected precipitation total for January 2013 is shown. Note: This map is also showed on the BMKG webserver: http://iklim1.bmkg.go.id/idfewsbmkgdt/Droughts/DroughtMapsMonth_English.html
6.2 Deliverables and technical training / workshops
For the first phase of this activity the deliverables resulting from the project are as follows:
1. Joint publication (Deltares/BMKG): Vernimmen, R. R. E., Hooijer, A., Mamenun, Aldrian, E., and van Dijk, A. I. J. M.: Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 133-146, doi:10.5194/hess-16-133-2012, 2012 (with component C2) 2. An operational FEWS/DEWS running at servers of PusAir and BMKG (with component D2) 3. A memo describing the necessary hardware for the application nationwide Delft-OMS for FEWS/DEWS (with component D2) 4. various presentations and abstracts submitted to workshops and conferences 5. Guest lecture by R Vernimmen (’Introduction to DEWS/FEWS’) at the annual BMKG technical training in climate change, Cipayung, 16 February 2012
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Whereas the following has been provided to the counterparts during the various training sessions:
6. Capacity building and training in the validation of satellite precipitation data, and use of Delft-OMS software for PusAir, BMKG, Balai and PU staff 7. Training material for setup of FEWS/DEWS system using Delft-OMS software 8. USB stick with training material, presentations and software for study tour in the Netherlands
Technical training / workshops In the framework of this activity eight technical training sessions / workshops were organized:
1. Technical training on ‘Validation of TRMM satellite precipitation and ground stations’ at BMKG, Jakarta (29-31 March 2011), with 17 participants (6 from PusAir, 11 from BMKG). During this 3-day training the use of satellite precipitation data, basic rainfall validation methods and the use of validated ground station data in validating satellite precipitation data were discussed and practiced, and staff was introduced to the Delft- OMS software. Staff from PusAir and BMKG gave presentations on the use of satellite data as well as on drought indicators currently used by the organizations (with component C2); 2. Technical training on ‘SPI and drought mapping’ at PusAir, Bandung (11-13 May 2011), with 12 participants (8 from PusAir, 4 from BMKG). Focus of this training was on the calculation of the Standard Precipitation Index (a drought indicator) as well as further drought mapping using the agroclimatic maps of Oldeman as an example. Further training was provided in the use of the Delft-OMS software; 3. Technical training on ‘use of PCRaster, NetCDF and grib’ at BMKG, Jakarta (1-4 August 2011), with 21 participants (10 from PusAir, 11 from BMKG). During the training participants learned to work with PCRaster software and apply this GIS package in generating drought maps. Further training was provided in the use of Delft-OMS software and importing datasets in NetCDF and grib data formats with the software 4. Study tour to the Netherlands (3 – 23 October 2011), with 8 participants (4 from PusAir and 4 from BMKG) (with component D1). During this study tour the participants received an advanced course in the use of Delft-OMS and immediately applied this in the development of the DEWS/FEWS system, in addition during the study tour various presentations on other operational FEWS/DEWS systems were given and several excursions to important Dutch waterworks were organized. 5. Administrator training for flood and drought early warning system at PusAir, Bandung (9- 10 January 2012), with 4 participants (2 from PusAir and 2 from BMKG) (with component D1). 6. On-the-job training Fews/Dews at hotel Permata, Bogor (16-20 January 2012), with 15 participants (5 from PusAir, 5 from BMKG and 5 from other governmental organizations) (with component D1) (http://www.pusair-pu.go.id/index.php/hal-utama/420-pelatihan- program-open-source-flood-and-drougnt-early-warning-system-bogor-16-20-januari- 2011-). Participants continued with the development of the DEWS/FEWS system; 7. On-the-job training Fews/Dews at hotel Permata, Bogor (26-30 March 2012), with 14 participants (6 from PusAir, 6 from BMKG and 2 from other governmental organizations)
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(with component D1) (http://www.pusair-pu.go.id/index.php/hal-utama/441-on-the-job- training-fews-dews). Participants continued with the development of the DEWS/FEWS system; 8. Administrator training for flood and drought early warning system, at BMKG, Jakarta (5-7 June 2012), with 9 participants (5 from BMKG and 4 from PusAir) (http://www.bmkg.go.id/BMKG _Pusat/Sestama/Humas/WORKSHOP_PENGKAJIAN_DAMPAK_IKLIM_MENGGUNAK AN_GCM_DATA_DAN_DELFT_OMS.bmkg). Training on maintenance and trouble shooting of Fews/Dews servers.
6.3 Recommended next steps
Although already a considerable effort has been put in training the various counterpart staff in the use and application of Delft-OMS software it will require more training to ensure that the gained knowledge reaches a level at which it is not lost when not practiced for a longer period. Part of this additional training should include the dissemination of results to the webserver. During phase I of the JCP there was not enough time to train the counterpart staff in applying the dissemination possibilities. If no continued support is found and secured it is feared that the gained knowledge will soon be lost and that the operation of the DEWS/FEWS system can no longer be maintained.
The following recommended next steps in itself also serve the additional required training as identified above.
Extend the DEWS with drought forecasting capabilities
The DEWS is currently monitoring drought conditions as observed by satellites. A logical next step would be to further develop the DEWS and extend it with drought forecasting capabilities. This could be done by incorporating seasonal weather forecasts (for example from ECMWF which BMKG has recently purchased) or by applying a statistical approach (ARIMA) to the historical timeseries of the satellite precipitation used in the monitoring (available since year 2000). The latter method is already piloted by a researcher from BMKG but has yet to be tested further in an operational setting. For both methods it will be necessary to assess the skill of the forecasts to create support and confidence in the forecasts.
Peat fire risk early warning system
BMKG has a role in disseminating daily fire risk in Indonesia. Of particular interest here are the peatlands in Indonesia where fires have a huge impact both on the local, national, regional and international scale as is evident by the recent fires in Riau. BMKG runs a national fire danger rating system for all of its land which is based on a Canadian fire danger rating system and heavily depends on temperature. This system is not suitable for fire risk warning in tropical peatlands where it is always hot and temperature is therefore not a discerning variable. We think it is better to run a separate Fire Risk Early Warning System for the peatlands of Indonesia based on a hydrological indicator and taking into account the current landcover and drainage conditions of the peatlands knowing that intact peat swamp forests do not burn and the more a peatland is drained the greater the risk of having deeper groundwater levels resulting in a greater the risk of fire occurrence and risk of prolonged
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uncontrolled burning. As a pilot using R&D funding, Deltares has previously developed a daily water budget model for degraded peatlands using satellite precipitation data, validated this with a project site in Central Kalimantan and correlated this with observed hotspot data from the MODIS satellites. The results of this research looked very promising and are worth exploring further now that through various peatland projects we have obtained much more measurements in different climatic regions of Indonesia to further test and refine the water budget model. It seems only logical to implement this in the DEWS since it makes use of the same satellite precipitation data and has good dissemination capabilities.
Agricultural crop yield forecast system
One of the important issues on the policy agenda of Indonesia now and in the years to come is food security. In order for Indonesia to better prepare and secure food production during weather extremes, not only now but also in the future under varying climate and socioeconomic conditions it will be worthwhile to have an operational system which can predict crop yield based on prevailing weather conditions. Knowing the weather conditions in the months to come can help farmers to determine the best time to start planting their crops or decide if given the predicted weather to plant a different crop which requires less water. A proposal to this effect has been submitted during the Dutch NWO call Urbanizing Deltas early 2013 (INDOFOOD proposal) but unfortunately was not found suitable enough within the call for a full proposal to be submitted. All participating partners (BMKG, Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture, Bogor University, KNMI, Alterra/WUR, eLEAF and Deltares) still like to pursue the possibility to implement the ideas put forward in the proposal and implement this within the DEWS.
6.4 Summary of outcome of activity
x A joint publication on the evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia, which formed the basis of the current DEWS x An operational nation wide Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) is currently running on servers of both BMKG and PusAir x The DEWS disseminates monthly drought frequency and severity maps on the web (http://iklim1.bmkg.go.id/idfewsbmkgdt/Droughts/DroughtMapsMonth_English.html) x BMKG and PusAir have developed capacity in the use of Delft-OMS software
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7 Flood Forecasting and Operational Management
Floods represent a major hazard in Indonesia and regularly cause loss of life and property. Flood protection infrastructure and spatial planning can in principle largely mitigate flooding but there is always a residual risk of flooding. Non-structural measures like flood warning and management can help society to cope with the remaining risk.
Flood forecasting can improve flood warning and management services by providing more accurate and timely information. This component D.2 of the JCP focussed on capacity development in the field of flood forecasting and warning at BMKG and PusAir. Many activities have an overlap with Component D1: Drought Mapping and Drought Early Warning.
This component consisted on parallel tracks of formal training and pilot application development. As a pilot the Jakarta water system was chosen. The water system of Jakarta is very complex and development of a flood early warning system for Jakarta would be the best proof to other locations in Indonesia, that it can be done: “When Jakarta can do it, everybody can do it”. The floods in Jakarta can be caused by high sea levels, local rains, but also by floods of the several rivers crossing the urban area of Jakarta. The high economic value of this metropolis make that floods can cause incredible damage. Until recently there was no comprehensive flood forecasting system in Jakarta. Since the start of the JCP, the partners have been working hard together to set up such a system which is now successfully in operation since late 2012.
An important component of the Flood Early Warning System is the data collection module. Its main function is collecting and processing data from international, national and regional sources. Amongst others, it collects forecasts from global numeric weather forecasting systems, data from national precipitation radar systems and the meteorological network. On a regional scale, data from telemetry networks are being collected and processed. Processing involves data validation and optimized data storage preprocessing for further application. One important feature of the Flood Early Warning System is that data from many separated data sources is now being collected into single system, which allows data processing activities like data comparison, ensemble forecasting, secondary validation etc. The data are visible for all organizations that contribute data the Flood Early Warning system.
The collected data is being used as input for linked hydrologic-hydrodynamic models, which generate discharge and water level forecasts in the whole Jakarta basin. A numerical coastal model calculates weather-driven water level offset along the coast, which in combination with astronomical tide results in a sea level forecast for Jakarta. With the forecasts from the models the river managers can see a possible flood approaching and take mitigating and preventing measures in advance.
Figure 7-1 Floods in the city of Jakarta
This activity has resulted in an operation Flood Forecasting System, being hosted both at PusAir and BMKG. Unique to the application is that data from many organisations is being collected. The
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process of setting up the data collection system resulted in improved cooperation between water management organisations and other related institutes. During the JCP project both PusAir and BMKG have improved their profile as the national institute on the area of flood forecasting.
7.1 Activities
One of the main JCP components is the combined development and preparation of a National Water Information System (see Figure 7-3). The system is based on the Delft– Fews system (developed since 1993 and currently used around the world in over 25 countries). The Fews system is an open system and free of charge. Important parts of the system are the drought and flood components.
Setting-up and formulating a flood early warning system requires the contribution of many local and national agencies is required, and thus forms an excellent part of the JCP. As can been seen from the layout, the cooperation of BMKG, PusAir, BPPT, Bakosurtanal with local Balai and Dinas is required to set-up the basis.
Numerical Weather Meteorological Seawater level Prediction (NWP) data Models prediction •0-3 hours •12 hours Rainfall radar (0-3 hours) •1-3 days South China Sea Model •7 days •historic, re-analysis Animation of tide in South South China Sea Model •Seawater level (SCSM) China Sea •River monitoring stations Deltares (1990-2008) •Tidal gates
De lf t H ydra ulic s FEWS, Flood Early Warning BMKG-BPPT BMKG – Bakosurtanal - PusAir PU DKI – BBCilCis – PusAir – PU WRDC
Figure 7-2 Floods in the city of Jakarta
For the flood component Jakarta (including the upper catchment) and the Upper Citarum basin served as pilot areas. In December 2012 the Jakarta Flow Early Warning System (JFEWS) was implemented for testing at the flood control rooms of both BBCilCis and DPU Jakarta, the disaster control rooms of both the National (BNPB) and DKI (BPBD) disaster centres and also at the weather forecasting room of BMKG. JFEWS provided wide support to all organizations during the severe flooding during January and February 2013. Further formal implementation of JFEWS is under preparation and is scheduled for the second half of 2013. JFEWS forms the basis for the further development of FEWS system in other basins, like for example the Citarum basin.
The outline for the Flood Early Warning System for the Citarum has also been prepared and is ready to be implemented. Available data feeds from PusAir, BMKG, Bakosurtanal, BPPT have already been added to the system. More data feeds from BBWSC, PLN, PJT2 and BMKG have been prepared, but not yet connected. Also the historic hydrologic database
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developed by package C for the upper Citarum basin (which was also provided to and implemented by package D) will be further extended and upgraded.
BMKG
Figure 7-3 National Water Information System under development by JCP
The preparation of the Flood Early Warning pilot for Jakarta included the following activities:
1. Data collection from telemetry networks in Jakarta basin: a. Data collection of PU-DKI telemetry network: for several main locations real-time water level data is collected. b. Data collection of manual gauge readings of PU-DKI monitoring network: hourly readings are collected both directly from Piket, but also from the PU-DKI website. c. Data collection of the PusAir telemetry network. d. Data collection of the BBWS Cilcis telemetry network. e. Data collection from the BPPT operated precipitation radar station: this data feed provides a real-time overview of heavy precipitation in Jakarta. f. Data collection from the Bakosurtanal water level sensor network. g. Data collection from the Automatic Weather System network of BMKG.
All automatic water level measurements in one system Water level measurements from different telemetry systems on one location, with the warning levels used by PU-DKI. Figure 7-4 Data collection from telemetry networks Jakarta basin
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2. Data collection of numerical weather forecast systems: a. Collection of ECMWF medium range weather forecast for Indonesia b. Collection of ACCESS-T (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) short range weather forecast for Indonesia c. Collection of ACCESS-A (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) short range weather forecast for Indonesia d. Collection of GFS (National Weather Service, USA) medium range weather forecast for Indonesia e. Collection of CCAM (BMKG) short range precipitation forecast for Jakarta 3. Connection of hydrodynamic models for flood forecasting: a. SOBEK rainfall-runoff model coupled with a hydrodynamic model of Jakarta basin for riverine flood forecasting b. Delft3D numerical flow model of the South China Sea for storm surge forecasting.
Storm surge forecast for the South China Sea. In When bank levels are crossed in the 1D hydrodynamic combination with astronomic tide at Jakarta this results in model, the 2D hydrodynamic models calculates forecasted coastal flood forecast for Jakarta flood maps. Figure 7-5 Hydrodynamic modelling in Flood forecasting
1. Presentations at colloquia and congresses: a. Workshop at the World Delta Summit 2011: New developments in service- oriented architecture for flood management. November 23, Jakarta. b. Presentation at the PusAir Colloquium: Launch of the FEWS/DEWS System. May 5, 2012 c. PusAir Exhibition during PusAir Colloquium. May 5, 2012 2. Flood Warning dissemination: data collected and forecasts generated by the Flood Early Warning system are disseminated using webtechnology. An android app (Banjir Online) was developed for use on smartphones.
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7.2 Deliverables, training and workshops
One of the main components is the combined development of a National Water Information System (see Figure 7-3). The system is based on the Delft– Fews system (developed since 1993 and currently used around the world in over 25 countries). The Fews system is an open system and free of charge.
The JCP Water Information System is online for testing since September 2011 through servers at BMKG and PusAir. The first version of the system was launched on May 3, 2012 during the Kollokium of PusAir. In June 2012, BMKG and PU formally accepted the system and decided that over-time the system should develop towards the “National Weather, Water and Climate Information Services System”. Hereto, the system will bring together the historic data (back to 1869), the operational data, the weather, flood and drought forecasting, the online monitoring, the relevant satellite feeds, the short and long-term weather forecast, the relevant marine monitoring and modelling and the Climate change and 'future’ weather. PU already with the preparation to implement the system on Java, hereto all management basins (WS) on Java started with the improvement of the data collection systems (telemetry) which will be connected to the system.
Main achievements:
1. Development and implementation of the Jakarta Flood Early Warning System as a first pilot for Indonesia. 2. Development of Android application for smartphones (Banjir Online) allowing the user to see maps, charts and animated images on flood conditions exported by the operational FEWS/DEWS system. 3. Four large (3-5 days; 12-21 participants) on-the-job training/workshops were organized in Indonesia to help increase the ability of PusAir and BMKG staff to setup and work with the FEWS/DEWS system, plus a 3-week collaborative workshop for 8 Indonesian participants in the Netherlands (with component D2); 4. Two (2-3 days; 4-9 participants) administrator trainings for the FEWS/DEWS system (with component D2); 5. Presentations on the joint publication and FEWS/DEWS system at various workshops and conferences (kolokium PusAir 2011 (Bandung), World Delta Summit 2011 (Jakarta, 22-23 November 2011) 6. Official launch of operational FEWS/DEWS servers at annual PusAir kolokkium 2-3 May 2012 (with component D2).
Figure 7-6 Explaining the FEWS/DEWS system to Public Works Deputy Minister Achmad Hermanto Dardak by PusAir employees.
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Real-time imported radar directly gives an indication The directly monitored extreme precipitation upstream of where precipitation-initiated flood can occur. Katulampa increases the lead-time for flood warning by four hours. Figure 7-7 Real-time imported radar images
The WDMS collects data from the AWS system which Imported forecasts can be viewed and animated in the spatial can be easily be viewed and analysed in the user display. interface. Figure 7-8 Views of data and forecasts
In the framework of this component the following key training components were delivered:
1. Study tour to the Netherlands (3 – 23 October 2011), with 8 participants (4 from PusAir and 4 from BMKG) (with component D1). During this study tour the participants received an advanced course in the use of Delft-OMS and immediately applied this in the development of the DEWS/FEWS system, in addition during the study tour various presentations on other operational FEWS/DEWS systems were given and several excursions to important Dutch waterworks were organized.
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2. Administrator training for flood and drought early warning system at PusAir, Bandung (9- 10 January 2012), with 4 participants (2 from PusAir and 2 from BMKG) (with component D1). 3. On-the-job training Fews/Dews at hotel Permata, Bogor (16-20 January 2012), with 15 participants (5 from PusAir, 5 from BMKG and 5 from other governmental organizations) (with component D1) (http://www.pusair-pu.go.id/index.php/hal-utama/420-pelatihan- program-open-source-flood-and-drougnt-early-warning-system-bogor-16-20-januari-2011- ). Participants continued with the development of the DEWS/FEWS system; 4. On-the-job training Fews/Dews at hotel Permata, Bogor (26-30 March 2012), with 14 participants (6 from PusAir, 6 from BMKG and 2 from other governmental organizations) (with component D1) (http://www.pusair-pu.go.id/index.php/hal-utama/441-on-the-job- training-fews-dews). Participants continued with the development of the DEWS/FEWS system; 5. Administrator training for flood and drought early warning system, at BMKG, Jakarta (5-7 June 2012), with 9 participants (5 from BMKG and 4 from PusAir) (http://www.bmkg.go.id/BMKG_Pusat/Sestama/Humas/WORKSHOP_PENGKAJIAN_DA MPAK_IKLIM_MENGGUNAKAN_GCM_DATA_DAN_DELFT_OMS.bmkg). Training on maintenance and trouble shooting of Fews/Dews servers.
Figure 7-9 On the job training course with PusAir and BMKG employees
Figure 7-10 J-FEWS client in the BMGK Control Room
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7.3 Indirect spin-off of activities and on-going activities
The implementation of the pilot offered the perfect basis for a follow-up project: Flood Management Information System (FMIS). In this project a flood management and forecasting system for Jakarta had to be setup and hydrological model analyses were performed. The existing pilot system, gained experience and contacts were the perfect starting point to further develop flood warning for Jakarta. The project was carried out in October, November and December of 2012.
7.3.1 Application of the Flood Forecasting System
One of the unique characteristics of the Flood Forecasting System is that it collects relevant data from multiple organisations, active in water management in Jakarta, or providing weather forecasts. This data, which proved to be incredibly useful during flood situations, was previously unreachable for the disaster management authorities. During the latest floods, which were almost as severe as the 2007 floods, the disaster management organisations heavily relied on the Flood Early Warning System for up-to- date information. This application actually proved that the system outgrew the status of pilot system. BMKG and PusAir, in conjunction with Deltares and KNMI were seen as the experts on the subject.
Besides the implementation of the first version of JFEWS also the Standard Operation Procedures (SOP’s) of all organizations have been evaluated and suggestions have been formulated to adjust the SOP’s to allow formal commissioning, ownership and use of JFEWS. The following steps are required to make formal use and implementation possible before the next flood season 2013 – 2014: x Wet season 2012 – 2013 o Testing and tailoring of FMIS / JFEWS x April – September 2013: o Completion, formalization and legalization of SOP’s o Commissioning of FMIS / JFEWS x Wet season 2013 – 2014 o Jakarta flood operation with FMIS / JFEWS
7.3.2 Jakarta Floods 2013
During 15 till 18 January 2013 Jakarta and Bogor areas experienced heavy rain leading to several high river waves entering and flowing through Jakarta. On January 17 one of the river banks of the Western Flood Channel (Banjir Kanal Barat, BKB) could not withstand the permanent high water levels and collapsed over a length of 76 meter. As a result for about a day water from BKB entered the city with a rate of about 100 m3/s. At the same time heavy
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rains (over 150 mm/day) pounded the city and this combination resulted in very heavy flooding in the Thamrin, Menteng, Pluit areas of Jakarta. The heavy rainstorm also caused overflowing of the Angke and Pesanggrahan river causing considerable flooding in the north western parts of the city. To a lesser extent also the north eastern areas experienced flooding due to local rainfall. No flooding appeared in the south eastern areas where the rain waters were safely transported to the sea through the new Eastern Flood Channel (Banjir Kanal Timur, BKT). On the 19th of January most of the floods in the central parts of Jakarta already receded, but many Northern areas remained flooded for several days. Especially the Pluit area was severely affected by the floods and remained flooded for over 10 days.
The Royal Netherlands Embassy (RNE) and the Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment (Min I&E) of the Netherlands stayed in close contact with the Indonesian Ministry of Public Works (PU) to see if the extensive Dutch knowledge of the water system of Jakarta could be mobilized to assist Jakarta during the flood operations and with the aftermath of the floods. Already on January 18 the Government of Indonesia (GOI) and the Government of the Netherlands (GON) agreed on cooperation to assist Jakarta. Deltares and HKV were invited to identify with the experts of the Ministry of PU the principal elements of this assistance for both the short-term (till the end of the current flood season, March 2013) and the longer term. The assistance started on January 21, 2013.
For the short-term three areas of assistance were identified to assist both National and Provincial (Jakarta) governments with the flood aftermath and prepare for urgent measures and operation during the remaining of the flood season: - evaluate ‘what happened’ and identify ‘new lessons learnt’ - assist with the identification of additional urgent flood measures - assist, maintain and improve critical parts of the Jakarta Flood Early Warning System (JFEWS) for both National and Provincial: o Flood operation and management o Disaster centres
7.4 Future developments – towards the National System
Over-time the system should develop towards the “National Weather, Water and Climate Information Services System”. Hereto, the system will bring together the historic data (back to 1869), the operational data, the weather, flood and drought forecasting, the online monitoring, the relevant satellite feeds, the short and long-term weather forecast, the relevant marine monitoring and modelling and the Climate change and 'future’ weather. PU already started with the preparation to implement the system on Java, hereto all management basins (WS) on Java started with the improvement of the data collection systems (telemetry) which will be connected to the system.
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For the development and implementation of the Flood Early Warning System throughout Indonesia the following steps are currently under discussion and under preparation at PU. The basic requirement is to have a small dedicated national team (e.g. PusAir, BMKG, BIG, Lapan) with a champion (to get things done) is required to guide and assist to get the B(B)WS connected and supply with the relevant data: x National data like BMKG radar (39 at the moment, will be extended to 52 to cover all Indonesia), weather stations, satellite data (e.g. TRMM, Modis), Weather forecast, Sea water levels (PusAir - BIG), standardized maps (BIG), etc.. These are all data that should flow to the B(B)WS. A very promising new technique is coming the 'google earth engine', which can be tailored to be used by the separate B(B)WS and form a basis for the drought and flood modelling (below I give insight) x Basin data, like river water levels (including warning levels!), reservoir levels, local rainfall stations and alike. In future also the accompanying historic data. These are data which should be supplied by the B(B)WS, combined with the other data and flow back like user warning and information (e.g. drought, flood, fire risk). I would start with the following: o Connect to the manual data collection by piket/posko, like we did in Jakarta by 'connected spreadsheet'. This is very efficient and reliable and needs simple arrangements at the piket and posko in the B(B)WS, Disaster centres, Province etc. o Connect to available telemetry o Arrange and update B(B)WS SOPs to add/allow/order FEWS/DEWS use and set responsibility, maintenance, who is doing what x Most of the above is of course well under way, but currently a bit 'on hold' because of uncertainties in the BWRM and JCP processes. The process at the different B(B)WS, Poskos, Pikets needs to get started
As a first logical step 'Warning by Monitoring', nearly no modelling yet, but use, implement and make available 'the knowledge in the basin' (basically this is the currently active part of JFEWS, which was very helpful during the past flood season) for flood and drought warning like: x Flood: o Key river stations with realistic warning levels, connected to areas at risk by: Simple GIS polygon area connection based on local knowledge Simple Flood Hazard Mapping modelling based on standardized DEM (later to be replaced by Lidar imaging) and river levels o Rainfall radar and rainfall station warning levels o required strengthening of posko/piket/B(B)WS control room and mobilization of the flood control manager x Flood and Drought: o Reservoir status and warning module o Required (1) connection with manual / on-line reservoir levels and balance and operation rules, (2) mobilization of reservoir operator, (3) preparation of reservoir module to be used by all reservoirs (already available in FEWS system) x Drought: o weekly/monthly water balance of catchments and sub-catchments based on composite satellite, radar and rainfall data o translation to 'user services' like farmer info, fire risk, reservoir operation, etc.
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o required national arrangement (can be done for all basins at once) by BMKG, PusAir, etc. Streaming / access to local B(B)WS x Arrange and update B(B)WS, reservoir SOPs to add/allow/order FEWS/DEWS use and set responsibility, maintenance, who is doing what
As a next future step 'Warning by simple modelling of monitoring': x Flood: o Based on available radar, rainfall data prediction (based on monitoring see above) of run-off and river flows (and levels at key stations) by a (national) WFlow type of approach o Simple Flood Hazard Mapping modelling based on standardized DEM (later to be replaced by Lidar imaging) and river levels o required national arrangement (can be done for all basins at once, but requires some inputs of the local B(B)WS) by BMKG, PusAir, BIG (standardized mapping data DEM, land-use) in close cooperation with individual B(B)WS team. Streaming / access to local B(B)WS x Flood and Drought: o Extended reservoir module, with predicted reservoir level (1 week and/or 1 month ahead) based on WFlow inflow, expected demand, expected WFlow inflow based on long-term weather forecast o Required (1) close cooperation between individual reservoir operator and FEWS/DEWS team, (2) easy input in reservoir module of expected demand data by reservoir operator, (3) mobilization of long-term weather forecast x Drought: o predicted (1 week and/or 1 month ahead) weekly/monthly water balance of catchments and sub-catchments based on long-term weather forecast o translation to 'user services' like farmer info, fire risk, reservoir operation, etc. o required national arrangement (can be done for all basins at once) by BMKG, PusAir, etc. Streaming / access to local B(B)WS
All above can be done for all basins in relatively short time period of about 2 years as long as there is a good direction / guideline (including 'how to maintain'!) issued by the combined responsible ministries / authorities and dedicated small national - provincial/island/region - B(B)WS 'fews/dews' teams: o At B(B)WS level probably 'a strengthened posko/piket/control room' with 2 - 3 authorized dedicated persons (IWRM/Flood manager, Operator Manager, IT) to maintain, communicate and assist internal and external (national/island/region control rooms). o At National / Provincial / Region level, composite dedicated teams (PU, BMKG, BIG etc.)
As a next future step 'Warning by hydraulic / allocation modelling of monitoring'. This is a big step which cannot be developed for all basins at once as this includes setting up hydrodynamic and water allocation modelling, which requires: x Hydrodynamic modelling: o 1D: cross-sections, gates, pumps, operation rules, rainfall-runoff and alike o 2D: include hydrodynamic overland flow modelling o 'What - If' modelling (test operation options: "what can be done under flood conditions or disaster")
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o Required (I think): (1) prepared and trained consultant teams to assist B(B)WS setting up and implement the hydrodynamic models, (2) trainers of trainers and teams, (3) FMIS arrangements (databases, experts) at B(B)WS level, (4) guidance by guidelines and national institutes x Water allocation modelling: o Ribasim like modelling, including (1) inflow, outflow, supply and demand (urban, agriculture, low-flow) modelling, (2) demand / supply priorities and decision rules o 'What - If' modelling (test operation options) o Required (I think): (1) prepared and trained consultant teams to assist B(B)WS setting up and implement the allocation models, (2) trainers of trainers and teams, (3) FMIS arrangements (databases, experts) at B(B)WS level, (4) guidance by guidelines and national institutes
As another next step (for all steps above) 'Warning by Forecasting', which includes the development and quantification of reliable weather forecasts. In principle this again can be done for all basins at once and should be taken care of by the national responsible institutes like BMKG, PusAir. This does not necessarily require hydrodynamic models, but can also be applied to the above WFlow-like approaches: x Flood forecasting: o Several hours: start with now cast prediction of rain/cloud movements based on rainfall radar o Several days: Develop reliable NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction, already available and under development at BMKG) forecast for river basin flood and drought management x Drought forecasting: o Several months: develop more reliable long-term forecasts
7.5 Summary of outcome of activity
x An operational Flood Early Warning System for Jakarta (JFEWS) is currently running on servers of both BMKG and PusAir, to be used by the water managers in Jakarta for operational decisions while also results are made available to the public on smart- phones. x BMKG and PusAir have developed operational capacity in the use of JFEWS and, more general, to use Delft-OMS software x Considerable increase of understanding of the Flood System in Jakarta, enabling public servants to take better decisions on investment and operational measures. x A clear view on how a nation wide FEWS should be implemented
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8 What has been achieved? – How to continue JCP?
An important activity of the first phase of JCP was to explore how to formalize the cooperation between the partners in a more permanent institutional setting, possibly in a kind of ‘business’. It was also foreseen that, to cover the full range of water resource activities, new knowledge partners should join JCP. The base condition for JCP remained that JCP will continue to focus on the knowledge base that Indonesia needs to develop and manage their (marine and fresh) water resources systems. JCP, made up of knowledge partners, is not supposed to work as a regular commercial ‘consultant’. This chapter addresses the future of the cooperation. First the activities on the organisational set-up are described in section 8.1. In section 8.2 an overview is given of the activities of the next phase of JCP as foreseen at this moment. Section 8.3 contains a short summarizing evaluation of the first phase of JCP.
8.1 Organizational set-up JCP – towards a sustainable cooperation
8.1.1 Extending JCP with new partners
At the start of JCP it was decided to keep the institutional setting during the initiation phase limited to 4 partners (BMKG, PusAir, KNMI and Deltares). Already at that time it was concluded that additional partners should be added to JCP in the longer term, depending on the activities to be carried out. In the first phase several additional partners have been approached (in some cases they approached us) and some of these potential new partners have already started to contribute to the activities. Examples are BIG (Badan Informasi Geospatial - formerly known as Bakosurtanal) and BPPT (Badan Pengkajian dan Penerapan Teknologi – Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology). Both are already providing data and services related to the Jakarta FEWS of JCP. Another example is Alterra which has been asked by JCP to explore a possible agricultural component for the JCP activities. The basic approach of JCP will remain the same: each Indonesian partner should have a Netherlands partner and vice versa. The ultimate result of the preparatory discussions on extending the partners is that we foresee the following additional partners for JCP-II: x BIG and ITC (Enschede) x BPPT and DID (Data-ITC-Dienst, part of RWS) x Puslitbang Pertanian and Alterra BIG, BPPT and Alterra have already formally expressed their willingness to join JCP at high management level. Preliminary discussions with ITC and Puslitbang Pertanian on them joining JCP have already taken place. They showed a keen interest in doing so. The contacts with DID still have to be developed.
All Indonesian partners involved or potentially involved so far have been applied research organizations that are part of, or close to, Indonesian Government institutions, and have a direct responsibility towards the Government. This is logical as a primary goal of JCP is to enhance capacity for support of policy making, planning and governance. However, depending on developments and opportunities, other Indonesian partners may be involved that can contribute to the knowledge level that JCP is addressing. Examples are LIPI, LAPAN, UGM (University of Gajah Mada in Yogyakarta, with strong capacity in spatial planning support) and ITB (Institute of Technology in Bandung). This could deepen the role of
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JCP to support the collaboration between Indonesian research organizations, which at present often work in isolation.
JCP has also been approached by foreign institutions to get linked up with JCP or make use of the network that JCP has developed. An example is CSIRO of Australia which likes to link their research cooperation in the field of water and climate with the strong institutional structure of JCP. For the time being JCP does welcome these cooperation opportunities and certainly will accommodate these but JCP will do this without making these foreign institutions actual partners of JCP.
State of affairs So far a formal agreement has not been signed yet to include the new partners in JCP. As stated above JCP has had extensive contacts with these organizations and all of them expressed clearly that they like to join JCP. Actually, some of these new partners have already actively been participating in the first phase of JCP, notably Alterra which was involved in the work on the Pola for the EDB basin (see section 2.1) in Papua and BPPT that fully participated in the development of the FEWS (see chapter 7). Alterra also contributed to the development of new activities for the second phase (see section 8.2) and established links with their partner organization (Puslitbang Pertanian in Bogor). The fact that no new agreement has been signed yet was simple due to a lack of time to prepare and organize this. It is expected that the new agreement will now be discussed and signed in a workshop in the fall of 2013. Compared to the previous MoU (between PusAir, BMKG, KNMI and Deltares) we hope to include in this new MoU more specific clauses with respect to the financial inputs of the partners, the programming of the activities and supervision and guidance (steering committee). Specific attention during phase II will also be given to the relation of JCP with the private sector, both from Indonesia and from the Netherlands.
8.1.2 Future organizational set-up of JCP
Activities and views of JCP with respect to the future organizational set-up of the cooperation have been described in three documents: x Memo: Zakelijke benadering consortium JCP (in Dutch) of 29 September 2011 x Memo: Organisational Approach to Sustainable Cooperation of 16 November 2011 x Note: Joint Cooperation – a vision on sustainability of July 2012
The cooperation between het Indonesian and Netherlands partners during the Initiation phase has been excellent, at operational level (exchange of knowledge, data, etc.) as well as at strategic level. During the Initiation phase various MoU’s have been signed (or renewed) between Netherlands and Indonesian partners as well as between various Indonesian partners among themselves. Despite this success JCP has not been able yet to decide upon a final institutional setting of JCP as a whole. This is partly due to complicated governmental regulations in Indonesia (and partly also in the Netherlands) which makes it difficult for institutions to get structurally involved in ‘commercial’ activities. Taxing and required institutional arrangements for foreign activities in Indonesia further complicate the setting up of a formal ‘institute JCP’. Moreover, the mix of scientific oriented activities and commercial projects seem to be difficult to accommodate in one organisation.
Cooperation agreement JCP JCP provides an activity oriented framework for cooperation between the partners. The intent for cooperation on JCP was signed on January 22, 2009 between the four founding partners,
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followed by a Project Digest document signed on July 10, 2009 by the four partners. These documents, in combination with the Project Document of October 19, 2010 and accompanying letters of the partners, were the base for the cooperation in the first two years.
Based on the experience gained in the cooperation during the first phase it is suggested to develop and sign an updated agreement for the second phase. This update will include additional partners (see section 8.1.1 above) but should also, compared to the previous cooperation agreement, pay more attention to the obligations of the partners and the rules under which the cooperation will take place.
Bilateral agreements In addition to the JCP agreements (signed by all parties) it is expected that partners will (continue to) develop bilateral cooperation agreements. Such bilateral cooperation agreements do already exist between the founding partners (KNMI-BMKG, Deltares-KNMI, PusAir-Deltares, PusAir-BMKG). Similar agreements should be developed between the ‘new’ and ‘old’ parties. Compared to the JCP agreement bilateral cooperation agreements have the added value that they can be much more specific and can include also activities that are not covered by JCP. These bilateral agreements might address joint scientific research projects, transfer of computer tools, exchange of staff, etc. In particular the agreements between sister institutes (such as PusAir and Deltares) will have to include commitments and should be signed at the highest level.
Legal basis JCP does not have a legal basis to carry out activities on its own. The JCP activities are at present carried out under the responsibility of the individual partners. For the first phase JCP received a subsidy from the Royal Netherlands Embassy of 1.0 M€ and 0.2 M€ from Partners for Water. Agreements on these subsidies have been organized through Deltares. Deltares has signed a sub-agreement with KNMI for their participation in JCP and a similar one with Alterra for their (still small) contribution to the first phase.
Various options are being considered to provide JCP with another legal and institutional basis. The difficulty involved is that all JCP partners are (semi-) governmental organizations with strong (often legal) limitations on getting involved in commercial and/or financial risky activities. The options for a legal basis for JCP are: x Company (PT) x Private Joint Venture (JV) x Limited liability company (LLC) x Other forms of Public-Private-Partnerships (PPP) x Strategic Cooperation Alliance (such as NUSDeltares alliance in Singapore)
No real progress has been made in deciding on how to pursue the required institutional setting. The effort to establish a PT will be considerable. It is doubtful if BMKG, PusAir and KNMI as governmental agencies are able to participate in a PT. Taxing and other legal obligations makes the participation of foreign institutes as Deltares, KNMI and Alterra in a PT in Indonesia very complicated. For all these reasons the establishment of a PT is not considered any more, also because it is not logical to establish a commercial PT as JCP does not want to compete commercially.
The other options are still open but these will require a lot of attention and time to explore their feasibility. The experience of Deltares with the NUSDeltares alliance in Singapore is of
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high value. Even though this alliance is basically more simple than JCP (only 2 partners), also that alliance is still subject of much discussion.
Hence, the present thinking about the institutionalization of JCP is to continue the present approach, i.e. that JCP remains a cooperating organization without legal basis. This will be set out in the new cooperation agreement as mentioned above. For activities where a legal basis is required, e.g. for contracts, use will be made of the existing legal positions of the partners, including the local registration of Deltares in Indonesia. In case a contract on an activity (project) has to be signed, the JCP management will decide who of the partners will take the lead for this activity and sign het contract. Next this lead partner will develop sub- contracts for the other partners involved in this activity.
Generating commercial income and how to handle that administratively is not a straightforward process for PusAir and BMKG. Regulations apply for this kind of income and JCP should investigate how to deal with these regulations.
x PusAir: outside contracts are organized through the unit PNBP (Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajan – translated: government income not from tax). The specific regulations for PNBP need to be discussed. x BMKG: has a similar regulation for their externally funded activities; this regulation include a specific list of activities in which BMKG can be involved in and be paid for. JCP should take care that ‘their’ activities will be included in that list.
A specific issue to be addressed is the fact that the income that is generated in this way is first channelled to ‘Kas Negara’ en will only be made available for PusAir and BMKG after quite some delay. This may impede the execution of the activities. These and other issues still have to be addressed and resolved.
8.1.3 Funding
JCP has to generate funds to support its activities. This can be internal funds (money from the own budgets of the partners) or external funds (from donors, clients, etc.). If and how much internal and external funds are needed depends on the specific type of activity. Some examples: x scientific cooperation: from internal funds, arranged for in the yearly budgets of institutes in the framework of their bilateral cooperation agreements x data consolidation, dissemination and quality control: input of Indonesian partners in general to be funded from own budgets (as these tasks relate to their mission); exceptions might be donor project in which PusAir and/or BMKG are specifically asked to take care of some activities; input of international partners to be funded from external sources x specialized consultancies: to be funded from external sources, both for Indonesian partners and Netherlands partners
In setting up JCP the Netherlands partners have agreed to contribute 20% of the budget of the first phase from their own budget. Depending on the kind of projects that will be carried out in the next phase it is expected that such own contribution of 20% will be continued, in particular oriented at the scientific cooperation component of JCP.
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The Indonesian contribution in the first phase covered nearly all costs made in Indonesia (Indonesian own time, support, office, travel, etc.) except the costs directly related to the input of the international staff (time, travel, DSA, etc.). For the next phase it can be assumed that this will continue to apply for the activities related to the missions of the Indonesian partners. For their input in national and international contract projects they will need to be funded according to their regulations.
State of affairs on funding 2nd phase As mention in section 9.1 all present and new partners have firmly stated that they want (to continue) to cooperate in the 2nd phase. The Netherlands partners KNMI, Deltares and Alterra have made budget reservations for their own contribution in JCP in the coming years. This is also the case for PusAir and BMKG as they have done in the past 2 years. Also the new Indonesian partners have mentioned that they will make budgets available to cover their costs but this has not been confirmed yet formally. The intention is to have these contributions included and confirmed in the new JCP agreement (see above).
The challenge for JCP will be to find external funds for the Netherlands partners to cover their costs, above the 20% own contribution. Discussions have taken place with possible donors. In principle their reaction is positive but in most cases they clearly state that the activities should fit in their on-going programs and that direct funding (appointment) is not possible in their system. Initiatives for this should be taken by the Indonesian partners. An overview of ‘projects’ and their funding status will be given in next section.
8.2 Preparing for JCP-II
JCP has been approached by several projects and institutions with initiatives to get involved in the current activities of JCP or to jointly set up new activities under JCP-II. Some budget reservations are made by JCP partners to allow for the preparation of these activities and if possible to start with the actual work already in 2013. Preparing for JCP-II includes the extension of JCP with new partners (described in section 8.1.2), defining the activities for JCP-II (section 8.2.1) and securing the funding (8.2.2).
8.2.1 Activities for JCP-II
The second phase of JCP will in principle be a continuation and extension of the kind of activities carried out in the Initiation phase. This means that the objectives and approach will largely remain the same. JCP is based on mutual benefits of the Indonesian and Netherland partners. The core aim remains to create a sustainable knowledge base in Indonesia in the field of water and climate, accessible for all involved in the development of the water system in Indonesia. The Netherlands involvement in the creation of this knowledge base should facilitate an easy access to it by Netherlands parties (the JCP partners but certainly also consultants, contractors, universities, etc.).
The actual activities that will be carried out under JCP-II will depend on the funding available. The Indonesian funding will be made available for specific purposes, and the funding of the Netherlands input will also put conditions on the activities to be carried out. JCP-II is flexible in this respect as long as it relates to water and climate, and that the activities can be seen as a continuation or extension of what JCP has already done.
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The experience from the Initiation Phase of JCP showed that the most successful activities are those that are directly related to the ‘service tasks’ of the Indonesian partners. All Indonesian institutes involved in JCP have specific tasks that they have to provide to the government and the people of Indonesia. This includes for example the provision of data (meteorology, hydrology, spatial, etc.), forecasting and warning but also answering specific research questions needed for decision making at higher level (e.g. on lowlands and peat issues). The Jakarta FEWS developed under the Initiation phase is a clear example of a service task, jointly for BMKG and PusAir. JCP-II will strongly focus on such service oriented approach. BMKG has strongly expressed their wish to jointly develop a tool based on DEWS to support planning and operational management for agriculture. This requires the cooperation of JCP with agricultural partners and Alterra and Puslitbang Pertanian have expressed that they are eager to contribute to such tool.
Another leading principle for JCP-II will be to start implementing the pilots as developed during the Initiation Phase at national level. DGWRD has asked JCP to implement FEWS nation-wide, starting with Java. The same nation-wide application of JCP-I pilots has been requested for the IWRM planning activities (by means of training, guidelines and tools) and the generic datasets. Such nation wide application fits perfectly in on-going programmes of DGWRD, e.g. in the framework of the WISMP-II loan from the World Bank (BWRM and BWRMP). Discussion with the World Bank showed that they are open for a request of DGWRD for such support.
Based on above, our experience from the Initiation Phase and the on-going discussions with the present and prospective new partners (see above) and potential funding organisations (see below) the following structure of activities for JCP-II emerges: x Nationwide consistent weather, climate and water data sets o Development of nationwide meteorological and hydrological consistent datasets o Development of baseline datasets using ground observations (incl. Didah dataset) which can be used in downscaling of GCM scenario’s without having to rely on meteorological and climatological re-analysis datasets o This includes, at the request of PU, explicit inclusion of data for deltaic lowland areas in these datasets, which have so far insufficiently been considered as part of River Basins. o Continuation of DiDaH activities. After 2013 BMKG should operate and exploit the SACA&D system, with historical, recent and current station climate data from Indonesia, routinely and on its own. The target of any extension or follow up of the project should be to involve other countries in the Southeast Asian Region, i.e. develop SACA&D into a regional focus of data rescue and climatology. WMO is very interested in this potential development of climatology in Southeast Asia and offers support. x IWRM planning and IWRM Tools o Support DGWRD and PusAir in developing local capacity for IWRM planning (at strategic (Pola) and implementation (Rencana) level) – national and regional (Balai, Bappeda) governments, consultants and universities. This will include training at various levels and the provision of clear guidelines and supporting documents. o Making available national planning tools to be used in IWRM planning (e.g. RIBASIM and JSM (Java Spatial Model)) and the institutional setting at central level (in particular PusAir) to support the regional planners to use these tools.
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o Making available the datasets needed for this planning (see above) under the FEWS data framework. x Weather and Climate services o Jakarta extreme precipitation (PhD, continuation C1), possibly extended with a second PhD o Exploring and improving Weather forecast skill in Indonesia - quality improvement, direct cooperation between BMKG and KNMI o Seasonal and climate projections for agricultural applications. This addresses the service task that the Indonesian JCP partners have (in particular BMKG) to support agricultural production in Indonesia and requires the cooperation and specific data of many JCP partners (BMKG, PusAir, BIG, Puslitbang Pertanian). The tool that will be needed for this will be based on DEWS as developed under the Initiation phase. o Altera has prepared a project proposal to address the food security on Java. This was discussed with potential JCP partners Puslitbang Pertanian, Universitas Teknik Bandung, and Universitas Pertanian Bogor, as well as with potential donors. The proposal was merged with research ideas of JCP partner KNMI, and was translated into a project pre-proposal in response to the call ‘Urbanizing Deltas of the World’ by NWO, with the title IndoFood; the pre-proposal was submitted before the deadline, in February 2013. The aim of the proposed project is to improve usage of hydrometeorological and agricultural information to secure crop yields and food security in rice growing parts of West Java. KNMI, Deltares, Alterra, Puslitbang Pertanian of the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture, BMKG, Bogor Univ. Center for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management, and eLeaf are partners in the proposed project x Lowlands, Peatlands and Subsidence o Support of awareness of data and knowledge deficiencies, and remedial actions, in PU and other ministries. At present, elevation models and peat extent maps for Indonesia’s lowlands and peatlands are so poor as to be unusable for policy making and spatial planning. This has therefore largely taken place without data or with fundamentally flawed data (resulting in e.g. rice development schemes on deep peat, or oil palm concessions in areas that are regularly flooded or will be flooded in the near future). Only with better data can policies and planning be improved. o Support of expansion by PU (with other ministries, especially Agriculture) of experimental stations to measure and demonstrate relations between lowland/peatland water management, subsidence rates and flooding, scaling up from the Experimental station already started in Central Kalimantan. o Support of PU in further development of a subsidence-based carbon accounting model for drained peatlands, an obligation they have towards Indonesian Government for which they have requested continuation of JCP support. x Forecasting and Operational Water Management o Implementation of FEWS at national level, for relevant basins, starting with Java; based on experience with Jakarta-FEWS; developing national capability to use these kind of systems. o Extending the FEWS system for multi hazard situations (drought, flood, surge and wave, and land slide early warning), technical as well as development of national warning procedures for multi hazard situations o Application of FEWS system to support operational management of reservoirs
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x Coastal management and infrastructure o Coastal experimental research for coastal development and protection o Building with nature concepts for Indonesia
8.2.2 Securing funding
The Initiation phase of JCP has been made possible thanks to a strong governmental support. Indonesian ministries have made sufficient budgets available for the input of staff of PusAir and BMKG while the Netherlands contribution was supported by a subsidy from the Netherlands Embassy and the programme Partners for Water. Twenty percent of the Netherlands costs was covered by own contributions of the Netherlands partners (KNMI, Deltares, Alterra).
The funding for JCP-II is still under development. Although not totally formalized yet the following contributions can be considered to be secured already: x The contribution of the Indonesian partners, covering their own costs and the costs to facilitate JCP (office costs, etc.) x The own contribution of the Netherlands partners (the 20%) x On-going projects with strong relations with JCP. This includes in particular activities related to the Lowlands, Peatlands and Subsidence component in which JCP partners are involved. Especially the WB-funded WACLIMAD, Netherlands-funded QANS and Australian-funded KFCP projects have already substantially contributed to creating ideas and opportunities for new projects that are now ongoing or being started up. The following projects are very open to being linked up to a continuation of JCP (with JCP supporting the ability to maximize spin-off for, and practical engagement of, Indonesian Government): o The Sustainable Peatlands for People and Climate (Wetlands International with Deltares and UGM, funded by NORAD, planned 2013-2015) is a regional initiative (Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei) aiming to A) provide regional quantifications of sustainability risks (carbon loss, subsidence and flooding), and B) professionally communicate this at all levels (local to international, i.e. District to UN) to support policy improvements around Moratorium, carbon emission reduction, food security and related pressing issues that are high on the policy agenda. o With Japanese private sector, Deltares supports PU in rehabilitation of coastal irrigation schemes to enhance production and reduce carbon emission (with Shimizu, for Japanese Government, 2011-future). o The KFCP (Kalimantan Forest and Carbon Partnership) is expected to be extended to 2015, and to more actively engage with Indonesian policy making (IDSS with Deltares and others, for Ausaid, 2010-2013(15)). The experimental station started by PU/PusAir with JCP support near the KFCP project area could play an important role in this.
Discussions are presently taking place with possible donors for other activities of JCP-II. In particular the World Bank (Jakarta office) has expressed strong interest in the activities related to the data sets, IWRM planning (including training) and tools in relation to the WISMP-II loan, in particular the BWRM and BWRMP projects that are in development under that loan. JCP partners are bidding for these projects and, if successful in bidding, these
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projects will be able to fund a part of the JCP-II activities. The Washington office of the World Bank (Mr. Xiaokai Li) has confirmed their positive attitude to our work in Indonesia and explores the possibility to use funds from the Trustfund Water Partnership Program (WPP) for the kind of activities as carried out under JCP.
Additional funding is being sought from various sources, among others: x ADB’s Water Financing Program ‘Knowledge partnership between ADB and UNESCO-IHE’; for activities related to the consolidation of the knowledge generated in the 6Ci’s project of ADB, in particular the data sets and the institutional consolidation of the Java Spatial Model (JSM) developed under the 6Ci’s project. This program is also considered as source of funding to support PusAir and BMKG in their role as Regional Training Center (RTC) of WMO. x Young Expert Programme (YEP), involving young potentials from both Indonesian and Netherlands partners, becoming available later this year. x Research proposal “Indonesian food security” submitted to the NWO call “Urbanizing Deltas of the World”, 1 March 2013 – will provide scientific contribution to the forecasting tool for agricultural production (DEWS, see above) x Under the same NWO call another joint research proposal is being developed to look into the relationship between water management and health in the Upper Citarum basin (led by Radboud University)
8.3 Summarizing evaluation of first phase JCP
The activities of the first phase of JCP primarily aimed: x to operationalize the cooperation between the JCP partners, showing internally and externally the added value of the cooperation; and x to explore the possibility of an organisational and institutional set-up of JCP that will guarantee the financial sustainability of JCP.
It can be concluded that the first phase of JCP has been successful in achieving the first aim. The cooperation between the four founding fathers has been excellent. Individual MoU’s have been renewed, the scope of their cooperation have been extended (KNMI-BMKG, Deltares- PusAir) or new MoU’s have made (BMKG and PusAir). This has taken place at the highest level of the institutes. The cooperation between KNMI and Deltares in the framework of JCP has also become an important agenda item at management level of the cooperation between the institutes. The position of KNMI at the start of JCP was rather reserved. Based on the first two years KNMI has clearly expressed that they want to include now all their activities with BMKG in JCP, including e.g. Didah and SACA&D. At working level there is much enthusiasm for the activities of JCP, both in Indonesia and the Netherlands. The results of the various activities (analysis recommendations, training material, software such as DEWS and FEWS, applications (e.g. JFEWS) etc.) are highly valued.
The activities oriented at the second aim are much less developed and less successful. This does not mean that the partners do not want to continue the cooperation. They certainly do want JCP to continue. The general feeling of the Indonesian partners is that JCP is doing fine. An we are doing fine, just based on the agreement we signed at the beginning of JCP. Why do we need a further institutionalization of JCP? All kind of administrative constraints (see section 8.1.2) play a major role in their ability to enter a more formal institutional agreement. As three out of the four founding partners (PusAir, BMKG and KNMI) are governmental
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agencies, it seems that an intervention at a somewhat higher level is needed to make progress in this respect. As such it is a pity that we have not been able to fully develop the guidance structure of the programme as we had in mind when JCP was started. The steering group meetings during the first phase of JCP were rather ad-hoc and were not given sufficient follow-up. One might also wonder how realistic our initial ideas were to develop a JCP into a kind of business, certainly in a traditional sense. The funding of the activities of JCP will remain to be project based. It is highly unlikely that organizations such as the World Bank and ADB will provide general (non-project based) funding for JCP, even when they support the role of JCP as knowledge broker, for quality control and to safeguard that the results (data, models, experience) of their mainstream project will remain available at Indonesian institutes for further use. It they will fund these activities they will do that on a project-by-project basis. This, in combination with the risk-avoiding character and legal constraints of most partners of JCP makes it very difficult to give JCP a more formal business-like organizational set-up.
Part of the ‘institutional development’ of JCP was to explore the possibility to include more Indonesian and Netherlands partners. As mentioned in section 8.1.1 this has been done. The intention of the new partners has been clearly expressed but still need to be formalized in a new JCP agreement. This is foreseen to be done in the 2nd part of 2013. In general it can be concluded that JCP has certainly contributed to the further opening up of the knowledge cooperation between the Netherlands and Indonesia. Besides the activities in which JCP was directly involved (described in this report), JCP has been instrumental in establishing links between several Netherlands knowledge institutes and Indonesian colleagues. This includes cooperation projects between Universities (e.g. Radboud, UU and UvA) and the establishment of consortia in the framework of NUFFIC-NICHE and NWO calls (e.g. Urbanizing Delta’s).
Finding funding for the activities of the second phase is the core issue for the sustainability of JCP. Funding is only needed for the contribution of the Netherlands partners. The Indonesian partners provide their own funding as part of their regular budgets. Although the Indonesian partners have clearly expressed their appreciation for JCP and their wish to include JCP in future activities, given the internal rules and regulations of the Indonesian government it is difficult for them to translate that in a direct appointment of JCP and JCP partners in governmental contracts. At the other hand we observe a strong guidance of the Indonesian partners, in particular of PU, to have JCP involved in on-going programmes such as BWRM and BWRMP. JCP will contribute to BWRMP through the partners Deltares and PusAir (contract negotiations are on-going) and BWRM (still in discussion within PU).
Summing it all up:
x What did JCP achieve in the first two years? o establish a successful and appreciated cooperation between the Indonesian and Netherlands partners o contribute to a recognized position of Netherlands knowledge in the field of flooding, lowlands, hydrology and WRM planning o JCP extended with new Netherlands and Indonesian partners o developed an extensive list of activities for the continuation of JCP in the next phase – some already including funding o strong commitment of all partners to continue JCP
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x What did JCP not achieve (yet)? o develop a more sustainable business model for JCP o secure full funding for JCP-II, in particular for the generic part (the non-project part) of JCP o sign a new cooperation agreement, including the new partners and including more details on conditions for the cooperation and commitments of the partners o establish an effective and structural guidance structure for JCP (steering group)
x How do we propose to continue JCP? o a detailed work plan for the 2nd phase is being developed (to be finalized in a joint workshop in Indonesia in fall 2013) o develop a new cooperation agreement for the 2nd phase, to be signed during the joint workshop mentioned above o carry out the activities for which funding is already available o continue our quest to find funding for the remaining activities
x How are we going to organize this? o Deltares to continue to take the lead in preparing the 2nd phase, with a strong involvement of all other partners (work plan, cooperation agreement, funding, etc.) o discussion with the Netherlands and Indonesian government on how to establish a stronger link (guidance structure) with JCP and explore the possibilities for a more sustainable institutional setting for JCP o organize a joint workshop in Indonesia in fall 2013 launching JCP-II (new agreement, work plan, etc.)
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A Overview of documents prepared by JCP during first phase
The following documents and other material are developed in the framework of the first phase of JCP. All documents are downloadable from the website of JCP. Note: PPP stands for Power Point Presentation
A.1 Component A – Management and Institutional Development
Management Documents x Joint Cooperation Program 2010-2015, Outline Program – Project Digest, July 2009 x Joint Cooperation Program (JCP) 2010-2015, Project Document - Work plan Initiation phase (Yr-1 and Yr-2), October 19, 2010 x Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Inception Report, May 2011 x Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Progress Report 2011.01, November 16, 2011 x Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Year Plan 2012, December 2011 x Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Financiële voortgangsrapportage 2011, 15 Maart 2012 x Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Progress Report 2012.01, April 3, 2012 x Joint Cooperation Program (JCP), Year Plan 2013, January 2013
Documents on the Institutional Setting of JCP x Memo: Zakelijke benadering consortium JCP (in Dutch) of 29 September 2011 x Memo: Organisational Approach to Sustainable Cooperation of 16 November 2011 x Note: Joint Cooperation – a vision on sustainability of July 2012
A.2 Component B – WRM planning and IWRM tools
B.1 EDB basin water resources assessment for revision of the Pola B1.1 Final Report: Einlanden-Digul-Bikuma basin IWRM case study, September 27, 2012 B1.2 PPP: Results IWRM Einlanden–Digul–Bikuma case study – Jakarta, October 18, 2012 B1.3 Poster for Pusair annual colloquium: IWRM Einlanden–Digul–Bikuma case study, Bandung, May 2013 B1.4 PPPs first work shop on Use of global datasets for hydro-meteorological analysis in areas with sparse data, Citeko, February 13-17, 2012 B1.5 PPPs second work shop on Use of global datasets for hydro-meteorological analysis in areas with sparse data, Bogor, 7-11 May, 2012 B1.6 Instruction manual and exercises for Use of global datasets workshops, May 2012
B.2 Training of trainers on Pola and Rencana B2.1 Report: Assessment workshop on development of Pola and Rencana in Indonesia and recommendations for training, Bandung, November 12-13, 2012
B.3 WMO TRC-H B3.1 Proposal for WMO Regional Training Centre for Hydrology (RTC-H) for the Southwest Pacific, Bandung, December 2010
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B3.2 Document on Integration of the JCP with the WMO RA5 Training Centre for Hydrology, WMO, Deltares, May 2011
A.3 Component C2 – Datasets for River Basins
C2.1 PPPs Training on Validation of TRMM satellite precipitation and ground stations data, Jakarta, 29-31 March 2011 C2.2 PPPs Training on Use of Delft-OMS and set-up of hydro-meteorological database and interface, Bandung and Jakarta, July 28-29 and August 1-4, 2011 C2.3 Instruction manual with Annexes for the Training on Use of Delft-OMS and set-up of hydro-meteorological database and interface, Bandung and Jakarta, July 28-29 and August 1-4, 2011 C2.4 PPPs workshop on Climate Impact Assessment for Indonesia using GCM data and Delft-OMS – BMKG, Jakarta, 4-8 June 2012
A.4 Component C3 – Lowland / peatland subsidence – future drainability
C3.1 PPPs first workshop on Peatland subsidence and flooding modelling - Bandung, July 26-28, 2011 C3.2 PPPs second workshop on Peatland subsidence and flooding modelling - Banjarmasin, January 31, 2012 C3.3 PPPs fourth workshop on Peatland subsidence, emission and water management - Banjarmasin, October 8-11, 2012 C3.4 Report and annex fourth workshop on Peatland subsidence, emission and water management - Banjarmasin, October 8-11, 2012 C3.5 Paper for International seminar of HATHI - Yogyakarta, September 6-8, 2013
A.5 Component D1 – DEWS
D1.1 PPPs training on SPI and drought mapping – PusAir, Bandung, May 11-13, 2011 D1.2 PPPs Training on Use of PCRaster, NetCDF and grib data - BMKG, Jakarta, August 1-4, 2011 D1.3 Instruction manuals Training on Use of PCRaster, NetCDF and grib data - BMKG, Jakarta, August 1-4, 2011 D1.4 PPPs advanced course on Use of Delft-OMS [with D2] – Delft, October 3-23, 2011 D1.5 Material On the job training FEWS-DEWS - Bogor, March 26-30, 2012 D1.6 Material BMKG Administrator training DEWS-DEWS – Jakarta, June 5-7, 2012 D1.7 PPPs BMKG Annual technical training on climate change D1.8 Article Vernimmen et al., 2012 BMKG Annual technical training on climate change D1.9 Various materials PPP, Pusair Colloquium 2011 and workshops 2012
A.6 Component D2 – FEWS
D2.1 PPP Towards Integrated Forecasting of Natural Hazards in Indonesia, World Delta Summit, Jakarta 23 November 2011 D2.2 Jakarta FEWS (J-FEWS) Booklet – popular version (in Indonesian) D2.3 Jakarta FEWS (J-FEWS) Booklet – technical version (in Indonesian) D2.4 Various PPPs and exercises Delft-FEWS PPP Delft-FEWS Jakarta BDBS mobile application
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PPP Delft 3D for Indonesia PPP FEWS introduction course Flood Management Information System Jakarta PPP Validation with FEWS Delft-FEWS Exercises D2.5 Manual FEWS System Administrator Guide for PusAir D2.6 Manual Telemetry D2.7 Final report Jakarta Floods January 2013, April 2013
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