Final 2018 Monitoring Report – October 2018

MON ITORING THE COST-BASIS OF THE K-12 WYOMING FUNDING MODEL

Prepared by the LSO Budget and Fiscal Section

Prepared for Joint Education Committee & Joint Appropriations Committee

October 2018

Monitoring the Cost-Basis of the K-12 Wyoming Funding Model

JOINT EDUCATION COMMITTEE MEMBERS Senator Henry H.R. "Hank" Coe, Co-Chairman Representative David Northrup, Co-Chairman Senator Affie Ellis Senator Stephan Pappas Senator Chris Rothfuss Senator Jeff Wasserburger Representative Debbie Bovee Representative Landon Brown Representative Jamie Flitner Representative John Freeman Representative Mark Kinner Representative Jerry Paxton Representative Garry Piiparinen Representative Evan Simpson

JOINT APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEE MEMBERS Senator Bruce Burns, Co-Chairman Representative Bob Nicholas, Co-Chairman Senator Dan Dockstader Senator Ogden Driskill Senator John Hastert Senator Bill Landen Representative Donald Burkhart, Jr. Representative Lloyd Larsen Representative Andy Schwartz Representative Albert Sommers Representative Tom Walters Representative Sue Wilson

LEGISLATIVE SERVICE OFFICE STAFF Matthew Willmarth, Senior School Finance Analyst

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LSO BUDGET AND FISCAL SECTION • 200 West 24th Street • Cheyenne, Wyoming 82002 TELEPHONE (307)777-7881 • FAX (307)777-5466 • E-MAIL [email protected] • WEBSITE www.wyoleg.gov Monitoring the Cost-Basis of the K-12 Wyoming Funding Model

Table of Contents

Monitoring Report History ...... 1 2018 Monitoring Report ...... 2 Statutory Model vs. Evidence-Based Funding Levels ...... 2 Non-Personnel (Educational Materials and Utilities) ...... 4 Professional and Non-Professional Personnel ...... 5 External Cost Adjustment ...... 5 Appendices Appendix A – Monitoring Labor Market Cost Pressures “Current Status of Cost Pressures on Teacher Salaries in Wyoming,” September 2018, Dr. Christiana Stoddard, Wyoming Legislature Consultant

Appendix B – Monitoring Labor Market Cost Pressures “Labor Markets for Non-Teachers Employed by K-12 Districts in Wyoming,” September 2018, Dr. Christiana Stoddard, Wyoming Legislature Consultant

Appendix C – Wyoming Department of Education Use of Resources Report “Continued Review of Educational Resources in Wyoming (CRERW), FY 2007-08 through 2017-18 (Preliminary),” September 27, 2018, Kim Morrow, Wyoming Department of Education

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MONITORING REPORT HISTORY The 2010 recalibration effort and subsequent enabling legislation in the 2012 Budget Session, resulted in the Legislature adopting a monitoring process developed by the Legislature’s school finance consultants. Pursuant to W.S. 21-13-309(u), the Legislature receives information to monitor the cost pressures on both the statutory and evidence-based K-12 funding models and to determine the appropriateness of application of an inflationary adjustment via an external cost adjustment (ECA).1

This monitoring process developed by the Legislature’s consultants uses readily available state, regional and national data as part of a set of relatively simple, understandable indicators of cost pressures. These indicators are to be viewed collectively when used by the Legislature for policy making decisions. The indicators are not to be considered in isolation of one another as individual indicators nor are they intended to be seen as definitively signaling any degradation of the cost-basis of the statutory model. The following core principles guide this process:

1. Cost pressures are identified when indicators show changes relative to previous levels, and trends are best identified when there are broad based changes in several measures;

2. All indicators have some transitory year-to-year variation and as such, the process seeks high quality data series that are consistent over time;

3. As new data collections are developed and become available, it is important to retain enough consistency with former measures to enable tracking of evolving trends in market conditions;

4. Changes in supply and demand conditions and changes in district outcomes are monitored; and

5. If several indicators reflect deviations from historical ranges, the process invokes the collection of a deeper set of cost data to confirm the presence of cost pressure.

The monitoring process includes review of four cost indices, one for each of the following model categories: professional staff resources, non-professional staff resources, utilities and educational materials. The monitoring process also incorporates by law the annual report produced by the Wyoming Department of Education (WDE) based upon resource utilization patterns of school districts in comparison to statutory model-generated resources, as initiated by state consultants following the 2005 recalibration efforts.

Note: The September 2018 version of this report has been updated in the October 2018 version to account for 1) updated health insurance amounts for school year 2019-20; 2) fourth quarter 2017 Wyoming Cost-of-Living Index (WCLI) data from the Department of Administration’s Economic Analysis Division, using fourth quarter 2017 as a proxy for second quarter 2018; and 3) revised U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data for April 2018. The impact of the updates on the statutory model for school year 2019-20, when compared to the September 2018 estimates, is an estimated decrease of $20.8 million for the health insurance component and an estimated increase of $1.2 million for the WCLI update, resulting in an estimated net reduction of $19.6 million.

1 While the Legislature performed a recalibration of the education resource block grant model during the 2017 interim, the recommendations from Augenblick, Palaich and Associates (APA) are not considered in this analysis for two principal reasons. First, the statutory model uses the evidence-based model as a framework of its funding formula, not APA’s recommendations. Second, not all of APA’s recommendations were fully developed and modeled. For example, APA did not complete its recommendation to develop a transportation density formula, which would have determined transportation funding levels. Accordingly, the LSO would have to exercise significant judgment to complete APA’s model for analysis in this report.

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2018 MONITORING REPORT The 2018 monitoring process utilizes similar information from prior reports:

• Comparing funding allocations between the statutory model and evidence-based model from school year 2006-07 to estimated school year 2019-20; • Monitoring the cost-basis of components comprising the non-personnel categories by observing the convergence of the statutory model and the evidence-based model as adjusted by the appropriate cost index; • Monitoring the cost-basis of teacher salaries by utilizing the expertise of Dr. Christiana Stoddard to evaluate readily available labor market data (Appendix A); • Monitoring the cost-basis of non-teacher salaries by utilizing the expertise of Dr. Christiana Stoddard to evaluate readily available labor market data (Appendix B); and • Reviewing the resource utilization patterns of school districts in comparison to statutory model- generated resources (Appendix C).

Each section below updates information previously provided in prior reports with current year information.

STATUTORY MODEL VS. EVIDENCE-BASED FUNDING LEVELS Comparisons of the evidence-based funding levels and statutory funding levels for school years 2006-07 to estimated school year 2019-20 are illustrated in Table 1. The table can also be viewed graphically in Figure 1.

Table 1. Evidence-Based Funding Levels Compared to Statutory Funding Levels. Evidence-Based Model Evidence-Based School Year Recalibration Year Model Statutory Model Difference 2006-07 2005 $974,384,621 $1,043,521,790 $69,137,169 2007-08 2005 $1,051,584,249 $1,126,991,003 $75,406,754 2008-09 2005 $1,114,929,855 $1,198,670,825 $83,740,970 2009-10 2005 $1,166,146,943 $1,252,956,891 $86,809,948 2010-11 2005 $1,206,491,760 $1,283,409,749 $76,917,989 2011-12 2010 $1,242,191,617 $1,345,435,177 $103,243,560 2012-13 2010 $1,282,008,100 $1,377,282,350 $95,274,250 2013-14 2010 $1,302,879,403 $1,390,441,588 $87,562,185 2014-15 2010 $1,343,025,593 $1,429,884,730 $86,859,138 2015-16 2010 $1,402,355,064 $1,494,415,878 $92,060,814 2016-17 2015 $1,470,805,562 $1,512,344,463 $41,538,901 Est. 2017-18 2015 $1,479,697,430 $1,482,599,811 $2,902,381 Est. 2018-19 2015 $1,489,300,000 $1,489,200,000 ($100,000) Est. 2019-20 2015 $1,500,400,000 $1,480,000,000 ($20,400,000) Source: LSO analysis and calculations.

Several assumptions are made by the LSO in computing the amounts, which if changed, would alter the analysis. Both models assume flat average daily membership (ADM) for school year 2018-19 and no

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increase health insurance costs for school year 2019-202. The statutory model funding amounts include the foundation program guarantee plus additional appropriations outside of the statutory model (i.e., food service program enhancements, school bus video camera reimbursements, distance education grants, retirement contributions, tuition, salary enhancements, national board certified teacher program payments, etc.). The evidence-based model funding amounts include estimated funding levels plus specific categories of off-model funding provided to school districts (i.e., retirement contributions, salary enhancements, tuition, and school bus video camera reimbursements). Federal funds also received by school districts are not considered in the total funding levels.

The LSO incorporates the following assumptions within the evidence-based model:

• For school years 2006-07 to 2010-11, consultant recommendations from the 2005 recalibration are reflected and the ECAs adopted by the Legislature are incorporated; • For school years 2011-12 to 2016-17, consultant recommendations from the 2010 recalibration are reflected and the ECAs adopted by the Legislature are incorporated. Additional ECAs for non- personnel prices are incorporated for school years 2012-13 (supplies 2.18 percent and energy 0.11 percent) and 2013-14 (supplies 2.78 percent and energy -5.11 percent); • For estimated school years 2017-18 to 2019-20, consultant recommendations from the 2015 recalibration are reflected and ECAs adopted by the Legislature from prior years are incorporated. Additional ECAs for non-personnel prices are incorporated for school years 2018-19 (supplies 0.861 percent and energy 6.092 percent) and 2019-20 (supplies 2.454 percent and energy 4.534 percent); • For school years 2018-19 and 2019-20, allowable reimbursements are assumed to be 100 percent of prior year actual expenditures. School year 2018-19 reimbursements use preliminary school year 2017-18 actual expenditures. School year 2019-20 reimbursements are estimated using the preliminary school year 2017-18 actual expenditures increased by 4 percent; and • For school years 2018-19 and 2019-20, the ADM calculation reflects the amendment made to W.S. 21-13-309(m)(iv)(A) during the 2018 Session, which provides for all schools to use the greater of the prior year or the three-year average based upon a district level ADM determination.

The narrowing of the difference between school year 2015-16 and estimated school year 2019-20 is a result of several factors and assumptions:

• During the 2017 session, the Legislature “calibrated” the statutory model’s non-personnel prices adjusted by an ECA for school year 2017-18, to the evidenced-based model prices recommended during the 2015 recalibration effort; • The evidence-based model assumes additional ECAs for energy and supplies and materials prices in school years 2018-19 and 2019-20; this accounts for approximately $7.3 million more funding in the evidence-based model in estimated school year 2019-20; • The ECAs for personnel categories enacted by the Legislature during the 2014-15 and 2015-16 school years remain in the evidence-based model, while in the statutory model they no longer remained as of the 2017-18 school year. This accounts for approximately $27.6 million more funding in the evidence-based model in estimated school year 2019-20; • The evidence-based model assumes 100 percent of allowable special education expenditures from school year 2018-19 are reimbursed in school year 2019-20. School year 2018-19 expenditures reflect a 4 percent increase of school year 2017-18 estimated expenditures, which accounts for $9.8

2 A revision was made to the September 2018 version of the Monitoring Report to account for updated information related to health insurance costs within the funding models. The Department of Administration and Information will not increase the employer cost of the State’s health insurance plan for calendar 2019. School year 2019-20 estimates have been revised to account for this change.

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million more funding in the evidence-based model in school year 2019-20. The statutory model assumes a statewide cap reflecting actual 2017-18 expenditures plus $1,000,000 for out-of-district placements; and • The evidence-based model assumes 100 percent of allowable transportation operations and maintenance expenditures from school years 2017-18 and 2018-19. This results in approximately $2.3 million less funding in the evidence-based funding model in school year 2018-19 – meaning school districts expended less money on transportation operations and maintenance than resourced, which is based upon the three-year average of expenditures in school years 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16. However, this results in approximately $660,000 more funding in the evidence-based funding model in school year 2019-20, assuming a 4 percent increase of 2017-18 estimated expenditures are reimbursed in school year 2019-20.

Figure 1. Evidence -Based Funding Levels Compared to Statutory Funding Levels, School Years 2006-07 to Estimated 2019-20. $1,600,000,000

$1,400,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$800,000,000

$600,000,000

$400,000,000 Evidence-Based Model Statutory Model $200,000,000

$0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Est. Est. Est. 2018 2019 2020 Fiscal Year

Source: LSO analysis and calculations.

NON-PERSONNEL (EDUCATIONAL MATERIALS AND UTILITIES) Monitoring the cost-basis of components comprising the non-personnel categories of the model is a more straightforward task as compared to the personnel categories. The approach used in the past and continued in this report is to monitor the difference of the non-personnel categories funded by the statutory model and the evidence-based model. Based upon the previously outlined assumptions, estimated differences for school years 2018-19 and 2019-20, by component, can be seen in Table 2.

Educational Materials Category As a measure to ensure the evidence-base model’s integrity, and in accordance with the monitoring process, annual adjustments have been made to the educational materials category since the 2015 recalibration effort. For school years 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20, adjustments have been made using the recommended cost index, which result in adjustments of 0.719 percent, 0.816 percent, and 2.472 percent, respectively. For estimated school year 2018-19, the statutory model’s educational materials category provides approximately $3.3 million less than the evidence-based model and approximately $6.1 million less in estimated school year 2019-20. Note, the Legislature repealed funding in the 2018 Session for short cycle

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formative assessments that is contained in the evidence-based model, which is approximately $2.3 million of the difference for each year.

Utilities Category Funding for utilities is based upon actual school year 2009-10 expenditures adjusted for new school building square footage. The utilities component is somewhat set apart from other components in that respect. In accordance with the monitoring process, annual adjustments have been made to the utilities component since the 2015 recalibration effort. For school years 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20, adjustments have been made using the recommended cost index, which result in adjustments of -10.762 percent, 6.092 percent, and 4.55 percent, respectively. For estimated school year 2018-19, the statutory model’s utilities category provides approximately $2.0 million less than the evidence-based model and approximately $3.5 million less in estimated school year 2019-20.

Table 2. Estimated Differences for Non-Personnel Model Components.3 Estimated School Year 2018-19 Estimated School Year 2019-20 Evidence- Evidence- Non-Personnel Model Based Statutory Based Statutory Component Model Model Difference Model Model Difference Gifted and Talented $3,760,441 $3,728,340 $32,101 $3,826,121 $3,701,947 $124,174 Intensive Professional Development $11,750,795 $11,650,484 $100,311 $11,956,036 $11,568,012 $388,024 Short Cycle Formative Assessment $2,313,440 $0 $2,313,440 $2,297,063 $0 $2,297,063 Instructional Materials $17,861,395 $17,708,921 $152,474 $18,173,364 $17,583,561 $589,803 Technology & Equipment $23,134,401 $23,134,401 $0 $22,970,635 $22,970,635 $0 CTE Equipment/Materials $2,697,117 $2,674,093 $23,024 $2,763,790 $2,674,093 $89,697 Extra Duty/Student Activities $30,227,461 $29,969,434 $258,027 $30,823,645 $29,823,276 $1,000,369 Central Office $34,147,306 $33,855,808 $291,499 $34,743,727 $33,616,146 $1,127,581 O&M Supplies and Materials $13,660,353 $13,543,742 $116,612 $13,998,037 $13,543,742 $454,296 Utilities $34,346,842 $32,374,583 $1,972,260 $35,909,624 $32,374,583 $3,535,041 Total $173,899,553 $168,639,807 $5,259,746 $177,462,041 $167,855,995 $9,606,047 Source: LSO analysis and calculations.

Statutory model funding for non-personnel components and district-reported expenditures is compared within the WDE’s Continued Review of Educational Resources in Wyoming, FY 2007-08 through 2017- 18, Report Update. This report can be reviewed in Appendix C.

PROFESSIONAL AND NON-PROFESSIONAL PERSONNEL Monitoring the cost-basis of components comprising professional and non-professional personnel categories of the model is accomplished by evaluating readily available labor market data. Dr. Christiana Stoddard has provided updated labor market information monitoring the cost pressures on teacher and non- teacher salaries in Wyoming. The 2018 reports can be reviewed in Appendices B and C. The analysis in this cover memo does not include inflationary adjustments for professional and non-professional personnel for either the statutory model or the evidence-based model for school years 2017-18 to 2019-20.

EXTERNAL COST ADJUSTMENT The purpose of this report series is to provide information to the Legislature with which to make any decision regarding appropriate statutory adjustment. In the event adjustments are needed to one or more

3 Table 2 has been updated from the September 2018 version of the Monitoring Report for estimated school year 2019-20 to account for revised U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data in the evidence-based model.

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model categories based upon information gathered from this monitoring process, a set of cost indices have been recommended that can be targeted to specific categories of the model to maintain the cost-basis of the model. Table 3 provides the recommended cost indices from the 2015 recalibration.

Table 3. Model External Cost Adjustment Categories and Recommended Costs Indices. Model Category Index Professional Labor Comparable Wage Index - Wyoming Non-Professional Labor High School Comparable Wage Index - Wyoming Producer Price Index – Commercial Electric Power (29.10% weight) Utilities Producer Price Index – Commercial Natural Gas (58.54% weight) Producer Price Index – Gasoline (12.36% weight) Educational Materials Producer Price Index – Office Supplies and Accessories Source: 2015 Recalibration Report and Dr. Lori L. Taylor.

The most recent cost index for each model category has been calculated. The cost index values for the professional, non-professional, educational materials and utilities are provided within Table 4. Figure 2 is a graphical illustration of data contained in Table 4. All indices have been rebased so that that 2004-05 equals 100, the first year of 2005 recalibrated model. Note, 2018 indices for utilities and educational materials for May and June are subject to revision four months after original publication from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Table 4. Cost Indices for Professional Staff, Non-Professional Staff, Educational Materials and Utilities Categories. Professional Non-Professional Educational Staff Staff Materials Utilities School Cost Annual Cost Annual Cost Annual Cost Annual Year Year Index Change Index Change Index Change Index Change 2006-07 2004-05 100 100 100 100 2007-08 2005-06 103 3.383% 103 2.923% 102 2.076% 121 20.871% 2008-09 2006-07 108 4.708% 107 3.994% 106 3.511% 116 -4.290% 2009-10 2007-08 113 4.643% 112 4.581% 109 3.537% 125 8.241% 2010-11 2008-09 120 6.134% 118 5.404% 113 3.638% 124 -0.903% 2011-12 2009-10 125 3.834% 123 3.954% 113 -0.647% 110 -11.302% 2012-13 2010-11 130 3.945% 127 3.479% 115 2.179% 114 3.152% 2013-14 2011-12 133 2.637% 130 2.593% 118 2.785% 110 -2.724% 2014-15 2012-13 136 2.091% 133 1.912% 120 1.505% 109 -1.249% 2015-16 2013-14 138 1.630% 135 1.458% 123 2.147% 113 4.063% 2016-17 2014-15 142 2.408% 138 2.480% 123 0.583% 107 -5.718% 2017-18 2015-16 145 2.538% 142 2.569% 124 0.719% 95 -10.762% 2018-19 2016-17 149 2.748% 146 2.838% 125 0.861% 101 6.092% 2019-20 Est. 2017-18 151 1.415% 148 1.536% 128 2.472% 106 4.550% Sources: LSO analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data and Dr. Lori Taylor's calculations.

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Figure 2. Cost Indices for Professional Staff, Non-Professional Staff, Educational Materials and Utilities Categories. 160

150

140

130

120

110

100

Professional Staff Non-Professioanl Staff Educational Materials Utilities

Sources: LSO analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Dr. Lori Taylor's calculations.

The total estimated funding for the operation of the K-12 public school system provided by the Legislature through the statutory model for school year 2018-19 is $1,489,200,000 and for school year 2019-20 is $1,480,000,000. Should the Legislature enact any inflationary adjustment to the statutory model for school year 2019-20, LSO’s estimates would be modified accordingly. The estimates do not consider funding from federal sources, state capital construction and major maintenance programs, or other school district revenues.

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LSO BUDGET AND FISCAL SECTION • 200 West 24th Street • Cheyenne, Wyoming 82002 TELEPHONE (307)777-7881 • FAX (307)777-5466 • E-MAIL [email protected] • WEBSITE www.wyoleg.gov

Current Status of Cost Pressures on Teacher Salaries in Wyoming

Report to the Joint Appropriations Committee and the Joint Education Committee September 2018

Report prepared by Dr. Christiana Stoddard

Overview of Cost Indicators

The 2011 to 2016 reports “Cost Pressures on Teacher Salaries in Wyoming” and the 2018 “Review of Teacher Salaries, Regional Cost Adjustment, and External Cost Adjustment” included metrics for monitoring changes in cost pressures on teaching salaries. This report updates the most salient of these metrics to identify pressures related to labor market trends, demographic patterns, and teacher turnover. The indicators are summarized in Table 1. Details about each metric and figures reporting longer term trends follow.

SUMMARY

• Teaching wages in Wyoming remain high relative to other Wyoming occupations, at 86 percent of wages of other professional and technical workers. The United States (U.S.) average and average in neighboring states and North Dakota remained close to 75 percent. However, the ratio in Wyoming has eroded over the last several years, and is at its lowest point over the past 10 years. • According to National Education Association (NEA) and U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data, teaching salaries in Wyoming have remained flat over the last year. In adjacent states and the U.S. as a whole, the increase in teaching salaries has been larger, at 4 percent. Wages in Wyoming are 15 percent higher than in adjacent states and North Dakota. Wyoming’s advantage relative to the region has fallen in recent years relative to the high over the last 10 years of 26 percent. • Wyoming continues to recruit more than half new teachers from other states, although the percentage has fallen since 2011. New recruits have BAs largely from public institutions, with fewer from for-profit or largely online programs than in recent years. The percent of new hires with master’s degrees continues to rise. • Student enrollment growth is relatively flat, with growth rates averaging less than 1 percent over the past ten years. The past two years have experienced small decreases. This rate of change is predicted to remain relatively low through 2023. • Numbers of retirements are predicted to be relatively constant or slightly falling over the next 10 years. The number of exits of teachers ages 60 and above is about 8 percent, well within the historical range. The leading edge of the baby boom has already passed through teaching. • The fraction of new hires has slowed to 7 percent, a drop from the previous year and lower than over the past 10 years. • Exit rates of teachers are close to 11 percent, exhibiting a steady rise from the lowest rate of 7 percent in 2008/09. This is seen for both new teachers as well. The exit rate for new teachers, at 14.7 percent, is the highest rate over the past 10 years. 1

Table 1: Summary of Indicators of Cost Pressure Sources Current Previous Historical Range Status Year And Average 2006/07-2016/17 Average Teaching Wages, 2016/17 $59,023 $58,866 $43,188 - $59,268 OES data Average = $57,602 2007/08-2017/18 Average Teaching Wages, 2017/18 $58,578 $58,578 $53,074 - $58,578 NEA data Average = $56,703 Ratio of teaching wages to other 2006/07-2016/17 professional/technical occupation .86 .88 .97 – .86 wages in WY, 2016/17 OES data Average = .93 Ratio of teaching wages to other 2006/07-2016/17 professional/technical occupation .74 .75 .79 – .74 wages in adjacent states + ND, Average = .76 2016/17 OES data Ratio of WY average teaching salaries 2007/08-2017/18 to average teaching salaries in adjacent 1.15 1.21 1.15 - 1.26 states + ND, 2017/18 NEA data Average 1.22 20017/08-2017/18 Percent new hires with BA from 53% 56% 67%-53% another state Average = 59% Fall 2007 - Fall 2017 Past student enrollment change, Fall -.3% -.8% -.8% - 1.7% 2016 to Fall 2017 Average = .8% Projected student enrollment growth, 2% Fall 2017-Fall 2023 Projected annual average = .3% 2007/08-2017/18 Percent Teachers 60 and older, 8.2% 8.6% 7.5%-9.4% 2017/18 Average = 8.5% 2007/08-2016/17 Exit Rate all Teachers, 2016/17 11.1% 10.4% 6.9%-11.1% Average = 9.4% 2007/08-2016/17 Exit Rate Teachers Ages 60+, 2016/17 29.1% 25.3% 19.3%-29.1% Average = 24.7% 2007/08-2016/17 Exit Rate Teachers with < 3 years’ 14.7% 14.1% 10.5%-14.7% experience, 2016/17 Average = 12.7% 2007/08-2017/18 Percent New Hires, 2017/18 7.2% 9.1% 7.2%-10.6% Average = 9.5%

Current State of Model and Actual Teaching Salaries in Wyoming

Figure 1 shows that teacher salaries in Wyoming rose rapidly from 2004 through 2010. Since 2010 teaching salaries have risen much more modestly. The trajectory largely follows the path of model salaries, except that in in recent years, model salaries have fallen relative to actual salaries. Currently, actual average regular salaries for teachers are about $58,000 which exceeds model average salaries ($52,535) by about 10 percent. Actual salaries have exhibited no growth over the past year. The following sections of this report examine whether cost pressures have also remained stable or whether they have increased during the past several years when salaries have plateaued.

Figure 1: Actual Average Teaching Salaries and Average Teaching Salaries in the Wyoming Funding Model

Source: Wyoming Department of Education staffing files. Model salaries from Wyoming Legislative Service Office.

INDICATOR 1: Ratio of Teaching Wages to Wages of Comparable Professionals

DATA SOURCES: The U.S. Department of Labor reports salaries by occupation in the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey each November and May. This is the most rapidly available source of general employment information, making it useful for monitoring external markets. The OES data is a survey of employers only, and it does not include personal characteristics of workers. As a result, these data cannot be used to adjust for workers’ characteristics (e.g., work experience, education, hours of work) or benefits. The data in this report come from the May 2017 series.

METRIC: Teachers include all elementary, secondary, and special education teachers. Wages of preschool teachers are not included in the teacher average, as these typically are not public employees. Trends in teaching wages are compared to trends in two other reference groups. Professional and technical occupations are defined by OES (OCC Codes 11-000 through 29-999). Comparable occupations are professional and managerial occupations that have skills and attributes most like teaching. These are defined by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) based on their analysis of specific skills and attributes of jobs.1 These occupations are listed in Appendix A.

FINDINGS: Figure 2 reports the trend in annual average wages for teachers, other professional and tehcnical workers, and the EPI defined occupations that are comparable to teachers; these are reported for Wyoming for May 2004 through May 2017. The figure shows that average teaching wages have remained relatively flat since May 2013 to the May 2017 average of $59,000. In contrast, wages in professional and technical occupations have experienced a sustained rise of 2-3 percent in each of the last four years, to $68,500 in May 2017. This sustained wage increase also appears in the narrower set of comparable occupations. These comparable occupations had a similar or slower rate of growth to teaching from 2008 through 2012. However, since 2012 wage growth in comparable occupations has accelerated while wages in teaching have flattened. Average wages in other comparable occupations in Wyoming, are currently about $65,500.

1 See Allegreto, Corcoran and Mishel (2004) for more details. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics National Compensation Survey reports the skills and attributes of occupations along 10 dimensions including factors such as knowledge required, supervision received, and complexity of the tasks. 4

Figure 2: Average Annual Wages for Teachers and Comparable Workers in Wyoming, 2003/04 to 2016/17 $75,000

$70,000

$65,000

$60,000

$55,000

$50,000

$45,000

$40,000

$35,000

$30,000

Teachers Comparable Occ Profess/Tech Occ

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May Quarterly Occupational Employment Statistics. All ownerships across all NAICS.

Teaching salaries throughout the U.S. are typically lower than the salaries of other professional workers, in part due to the high levels of benefits in teaching and relatively lower weeks and hours of work.2 To put the pattern in Wyoming in context, Figure 3 compares the Wyoming ratio of teaching wages to non-teaching wages to the corresponding ratio in the nation and in the region. Based on these data, average wages of teachers in Wyoming as of May 2017 were 86 percent of the average wages in other professional and technical occupations. The ratio of teaching wages to wages of professional and technical workers in Wyoming has declined from about 97 percent in 2010-11 to the 2016-17 level of 86 percent. In the U.S. as a whole, teaching wages are less than 80 percent of the wages of other professionals. This ratio has trended downward since 2008. The ratio in neighboring states is even lower, at about 72 percent.

2 See Podgursky and Tongrut (2006) for more work on this issue. 5

Figure 3: Ratio of Teacher Wages to Wages in Professional/Technical Occupations, Wyoming and Surrounding States, May 2003 to May 2017

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May Quarterly Occupational Employment Statistics. All ownerships across all NAICS.

Indicator 2: Teaching Salary Trends in Other States

DATA: The OES data report annual average teacher wages by state based on a random sample of employers. The NEA reports average teaching salaries for full time workers based on data reported by state education agencies. This data source is the most current source of teaching salary information across states, with one year of data beyond the OES estimates. The NCES uses these wage series in reports of teacher salaries.

METRIC: Figure 4 reports the average teaching wages in Wyoming, in adjacent states and North Dakota, and in the U.S. as a whole for the 2003-04 through 2015-16 school years. Figure 5 reports this for the individual states in the region. Table 2 reports supporting information that also reflects on the competitiveness of teaching in Wyoming; this table reports the fraction of teachers who have a first bachelor’s degree from Wyoming or another state.

FINDINGS: Figures 4 and 5 show that average teaching salaries in Wyoming tracked average teaching salaries in the U.S. very closely from 2006-07 onward. Average teaching salaries of Wyoming teachers rose by about 1.7 percent from 2012-13 through 2015-16, but have plateaued since and have moved below the U.S. average teaching salaries in the last year. Teaching salaries in the U.S. and in surrounding states have risen more rapidly in the past 3 years, with a particuarly strong uptick in the last year. Teaching salaries in Wyoming are now 15 percent higher than in adjacent states and North Dakota, a premium that has eroded in recent years from a former high of 25 percent. Figure 5 present the trend in teaching salaries in the individual surrounding states and North Dakota. Teaching wages in South Dakota, North Dakota, and Colorado have exhibited particularly strong increases in the last year.

Figure 4: Average Teacher Salaries in WY and Surrounding States, 2000/01 to 2017/18

Source: National Education Association, Estimates of School Statistics, 1959-60 through 2017-18.

Figure 5: Average Teacher Salaries in Wyoming and Surrounding States, 2000/01 to 2017/18

Source: National Education Association, Estimates of School Statistics, 1959-60 through 2017-18.

Indicator 3: Trends in Teacher Recruitment and Training

DATA: Salary comparisons point to the relative competitive advantage of Wyoming in recruiting a high quality teaching workforce. However, to measure whether this translates into actual hires, data on teacher quality is needed. Research has shown that teachers vary widely in their effectiveness in improving student outcomes, both on test scores and in future educational and labor force attainment. In many states, teacher quality indicators have been developed to measure the effectiveness of individual teachers. At present, Wyoming does not linke student outcomes with individual teachers, making it difficult to evaluate whether higher salaries in Wyoming are bringing in more effective teachers.

In the WDE Fall Staffing Files, schools districts report on the education and training of teachers.3 Currently, this is one of the only ways to track how the qualifications of new hires compare with those in the past. Previous research has indicated that the selectivity of the institution where a teacher is associated with better student outcomes.4 There are particular concerns about the quality of teacher training at for-profit or online universities.5 While advanced degrees have not generally been found to necessarily be related to student achievement,6 the percent of new hires with masters’ degrees may proxy for the ability fo Wyoming to recruit higher quality teachers.

METRIC: Table 2 reports the states where new hires obtained their first BA degree, to identify whether Wyoming is competitive in the recruitment process with other states. Table 2 also reports the institutions where teachers obtained their first degree. Figure 6 shows the trend in new hires being recruited from BA degree programs outside the state. Table 3 reports the fraction of new hires with at least a master’s degree.

FINDINGS: Wyoming remains an attractive destination for teachers educated in other states, although there is some evidence that this competitive advantage may be eroding slightly. Previous reports (Stoddard 2011, 2015) showed that from 2000-2003 half of new hires in Wyoming had a first bachelor’s degree from Wyoming, falling to about a third by 2012. The top panel of Table 2 shows that the percentage of new hires from outside Wyoming has fallen gradually. Currently about 53 percent of new hires whose institutions are reported have a degree from outside Wyoming. Figure 6 indicates that this percentage being recruited from outside the state has fallen from a high of 67 percent in 2011.

3 Sheridan County School District #1 did not report accurate education data in recent years and is not included in the tables below. 4 For example, see Ballou (1996), Clotfelter, Vigdor and Ladd (2006), Ehrenberg and Brewer (1994), Ferguson and Ladd (1996). 5 See Fox Garrity (2013) and Lincove, Osborne, Mills and Bellows (2015) for a discussion of the effectiveness of for-profit and online teacher training programs. 6 Rivkin, Hanushek, and Kain (2005) review some of the evidence on master’s degrees. 9

The bottom panel reports the original state and institution where recent hires earned their first bachelor’s degree. This is reported for hires that who earned their first bachelor’s degree since 2012. Previous reports (Stoddard 2015) showed that many recent hires received their first bachelor’s degree from a university with a large online component. This appears to have decreased in recent years, with the vast majority receiving their degrees from public universities.

Table 2: Fraction of Wyoming New Hires, by State where Obtained First Bachelor’s Degree From From Adjacent Year Other States Unknown* Wyoming states 2013 33% 39% 8% 10% 2014 41 42 9 9 2015 40 38 13 9 2016 39 36 13 11 2017 41 35 12 13 Teachers with BA degree earned 2012-2017, Hired 2013-2017

Percent of 2013-2017 Hires Bachelor’s Degree Institution With recorded institution University of Wyoming 45% Black Hills State University 8 Western State Colorado University 7 Valley City State University 5 Chadron State 5 About 2% each from Grand Canyon University, University of Northern Colorado, Utah State University About 1% each from Brigham Young University Idaho, Regis University, University of Montana, Montana State University Billings, Montana State University Bozeman Other Universities: 19% Source: Based on Wyoming Department of Education Contract Files (WDE 602). *A number of new hires do not have reported data for their education or the data appear to be misreported. For example, some teachers have a year of graduation that is 2033 or 2055, and their data is therefore coded as missing. Furthermore, Sheridan County School District #1 did not report accurate education data in recent years, and these teachers are included in the unknown category.

Figure 6: Fraction of New Hires with BA from State Other than Wyoming 0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Source: Based on Wyoming Department of Education Contract Files (WDE 602). Note that this figure uses percentages based on candidates with known BA institutions. Candidates with unknown educational background are not included. Sheridan County School District #1 did not report accurate education data in recent years, and these teachers not included.

Table 3 shows that new hires increasingly had additional education at the master’s level, with a rise from 28 percent in 2009 to 40 percent in 2016. However, the fraction of new hires with master’s degrees decreased slightly in 2017 to 35 percent.

Table 3: Fraction of Wyoming New Hires with Master’s Degrees Year Hired Percent with MA 2009 28.0% 2010 30.5% 2011 31.6% 2012 32.1% 2013 32.6% 2014 32.5% 2015 37.9% 2016 39.6% 2017 34.6% Source: Based on Wyoming Department of Education Contract Files (WDE 602). Sheridan County School District #1 did not report accurate education data in recent years, and these teachers not included.

Indicator 4: Trend in Student Enrollment

DATA: The Wyoming Department of Education reports actual fall enrollment each year. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) also releases counts based on a slightly different methodology and produces projections of student enrollment through 2027.7 These should be interpreted with some caution as all projections are subject to error: a significant change in migration patterns across states, for example, would change these estimates.

METRIC: Stress on salary is generated through a combination of how many people are interested in teaching and how many teachers districts need to hire. One source of new positions is rising student enrollment. One source of fewer positions is decreasing student enrollment.

FINDINGS: Figure 7 shows the past trends and future projections for student enrollment. Based on NCES projections, student enrollment is predicted to continue its rise of a slightly less than 1 percent per year through 2027 (0.8-0.9 projections). However, actual enrollment growth over the past 2 years has declined slightly, in contrast to NCES projections. This is likely due to exits from the state. The predicted future enrollment growth should be viewed with caution, as additional exits would result in a lower student population than currently predicted.

7 The Wyoming School Facilities Division also projects student enrollment, but does not adjust for the age profile of the state. The NCES projections incorporate the age structure of the Wyoming population. The NCES trends parallel population trends of 6-18 year olds computed by the Wyoming Economics Analysis Division. 12

Figure 7: Trend in Student Enrollment Growth Rate in Wyoming, Actual and Predicted 2000-2027 5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

-1.0%

-2.0%

-3.0%

-4.0%

-5.0%

WDE Actual NCES Actual NCES Predicted

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2027. Actual Enrollment for Fall 2000-2016. Projected Enrollment 2017-2027.

Indicator 5: Trend in Teacher Retirements

DATA: The Wyoming Department of Education Staffing Files (WDE 602) includes the age of teachers. By merging these staffing files across years, the data indicate when a teacher of retirement age left teaching.

METRICS: Figure 8 shows the age profile of teachers in the 2008-09 and 2017-2018 school years. Figure 9 shows fraction of teachers ages 60 and older for 2008-09 through 2017-18.

FINDINGS: Figure 8 shows that because many teachers retired before age 65, the leading edge of the baby-boom has already affected the teaching profession. In 2008, the largest age group of teachers was those ages 45-54. In 2017, the largest group was those ages 34- 44, as older teachers have been replaced with younger hires.

Figure 8: Age Profile of Wyoming Teachers, 2008/09 and 2017/18 0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2008/09 2017/18

Source: Wyoming Department of Education Staffing files (WDE 602).

Figure 9 shows that the percentage of teachers ages 60 and older has declined since the highest point in 2012-13. Currently, about 8 percent of teachers are 60 or older.

Figure 9: Fraction of Wyoming Teachers of Age 60+, 2008/09 – 2017/18 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%

Source: Wyoming Department of Education Staffing files (WDE 602).

Because the leading age of the baby-boom has passed through teaching, retirement pressures for the future are expected to be similar to those of the past four years. The age profile has shifted towards younger replacements, reducing replacement pressures.

Indicator 6: Percent of New Hires

DATA: Wyoming Department of Education Staffing Files (WDE 602).

METRIC: The net combination of student enrollment, teacher retirements, and teacher exits for other reasons results in the percentage of new hires. Policy changes, like class size reductions, would also influence this percentage. An abrupt increase in the percent of new hires may therefore warrant more monitoring of salaries to ensure that salaries are sufficient to recruit these additional teachers.

New hires in this report are defined as teachers in Wyoming who were not working as a teacher in the previous year. Transfers from one district to another are not counted as new hires. Teachers who left employment for at least a year and then later returned to employment are included in new hires. This is because teachers who were rehired after a year or more of leave would be filling a vacant position.

Figure 10 reports the past pattern of new hires.

FINDINGS: The fraction of teachers who are a new hire ranged between 9 and 11 percent since 2007/08. The rate has fallen slightly in the last two years to 7 percent, but remains well within the historical range.

Figure 10: Percent of Wyoming Teachers who are New Hires, Fall 2007-2017

Source: Wyoming Department of Education Staffing files (WDE 602) Years 2007/08 - 2017/18.

Indicator 7: Retention Rates of Current Teachers

DATA: Wyoming Department of Education Staffing Files (WDE 602).

METRIC: Some turnover is inevitable, and even desirable, as it takes some experience in the classroom to determine if teaching is a good fit, and retaining less effective teachers is not an optimal outcome. Nevertheless, a sizable increase in turnover rates could indicate changing labor market conditions for teachers.

Exits in this report are defined as teachers in Wyoming who were not working as a teacher in the subsequent year. Transfers from one district to another are not counted as exits. Teachers who left employment for at least a year and then later returned to employment would be counted as an exit in the year they first left. This definition is used because an exit of a year or more leads to a position that districts need to fill.

Some individuals have more than one occupational assignment. Following OES guidelines, this analysis only includes individuals where teaching was the occupation that required the highest level of skill. For example, if an individual was a teacher and an assistant principal, he or she would be coded as an assistant principal. An individual whose assignment changed to include an administrative component would therefore be counted as an “exit.”

FINDINGS:

Figure 11 shows that exit rates exhibit a slight increase since 2008-09. Current exit rates are about 11 percent, about the same as in the past 5 years. Although there has not been a sharp increase, the data indicate that exit rates have risen for reasons other than retirements. The exit rate for new teachers (less than 3 years of experience) are now at about 15 percent, the highest level since 2003-04 and a significant increase relative to the long term average. Exit rates for those closest to retirement age have also risen since 2012.

Figure 11: Percent of Wyoming Teachers Exiting the Profession, 2007/08 – 2016/17

Source: Wyoming Department of Education Staffing files (WDE 602).

References

Allegreto, S., Corcoran, S, and Mishel, L. (2004). How does teacher pay compare? Methodological challenges and answers. Washington, D.C.: Economic Policy Institute.

Fox Garrity, B. K. (2013). Enrollment of education majors at public, not-for-profit, and for- profit postsecondary institutions: An empirical analysis. Educational Studies, 49(6), 522- 539.

Lincove, J. A., Osborne, C., Mills, N., & Bellows, L. (2015). Teacher preparation for profit or prestige: Analysis of a diverse market for teacher preparation. Journal of teacher education, 66(5), 415-434.

National Center for Education Statistics (2018). Digest of Education Statistics 2016. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Education, Institution of Education Services, National Center for Education Statistics. Retrieved Retrieved July 10, 2018 from http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/.

National Center for Education Statistics (2017). Projections and Trends of Education Statistics to 2025. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Education, Institution of Education Services, National Center for Education Statistics. Release Date September 2017. Retrieved July 10, 2018 from https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2017019.

National Education Association Research (2018). Rankings and Estimates: Rankings of the States 2017 and Estiamtes of School Statistics 2018. Release Date: April 2018. Retrieved July 10, 2018 from http://www.nea.org/assets/docs/180413- Rankings_And_Estimates_Report_2018.pdf.

Player, Dan. (2018) Review of Teacher Salaries, Regional Cost Adjustment, and External Cost Adjustment: Report to the Select Committee on School Finance Recalibration.

Podgursky, M and Tongrut, R. (2006). “(Mis)-Measuring the Relative Pay of Teachers.” Education Finance and Policy. Vol. 1. No. 4 (Fall, 2006), pp. 425-440.

Research and Planning, Wyoming Department of Workforce Services. (2013) Monitoring school district human resource cost pressures: A report to the Wyoming Joint Education Committee.

Research and Planning, Wyoming Department of Workforce Services. Analysis and personal communications from Tom Gallagher, Tony Glover, David Bullard, Patrick Harris, Michele Holmes, Lisa Knapp, Patrick Manning, and Michael Moore during September and October 2014.

Stoddard (2011). Monitoring cost pressures on teacher salaries in Wyoming. Final Report to the Joint Appropriations Interim Committee and the Joint Education Interim Committee. 19

Stoddard (2012). Current status of cost pressures on teacher salaries in Wyoming. Final Report to the Joint Appropriations Committee and the Joint Education Committee.

Stoddard (2016). Current status of cost pressures on teacher salaries in Wyoming. Final Report to the Joint Appropriations Committee and the Joint Education Committee.

Appendix A: Comparable Professional and Technical Occupations

Teacher salaries reported in the Occupational Employment Statistics are compared to the salaries of other professional and technical occupations. These include occupation in the following categories: • Management Occupations (11-0000) • Business and Financial Operations Occupations (13-0000) • Computer and Mathematical Science Occupations (15-0000) • Architecture and Engineering Occupations (17-0000) • Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations (19-0000) • Community and Social Services Occupations (21-0000) • Legal Occupations (23-0000) • Education, Training and Library Occupations (25-0000) excluding elementary, secondary, and special education teachers (25-2012 through 25-2054) • Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations (27-0000) • Healthcare Practitioner and Technical Occupations (29-0000) The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) identified professional and managerial occupations that it determined to be similar to teaching based on Bureau of Labor Statistic skill ratings. These occupations are • Accountants and auditors • Underwriters • Personnel training and labor relations specialists • Inspectors and compliance officers, except construction • Architects • Forestry scientists • Conservation scientists • Registered nurses • Occupational therapists • Physical therapists • Trade and industrial teachers • Vocational and educational counselors • Archivists and curators • Clergy • Technical writers • Editors and reporters • Computer programmers

Appendix B: Data Used in the Figures

Figure 1: Actual Average Annual Wages for Teachers Model Salaries in Wyoming, 2003/04 to 2016/17 School Year Actual Average Salary Model Average 2003/04 $39,532 2004/05 $40,392 2005/06 $43,796 2006/07 $51,418 $47,178 2007/08 $53,085 $48,791 2008/09 $54,597 $51,303 2009/10 $55,933 $53,095 2010/11 $56,170 $53,046 2011/12 $56,885 $53,036 2012/13 $56,899 $52,824 2013/14 $56,718 $52,567 2014/15 $57,511 $52,724 2015/16 $58,251 $54,010 2016/17 $58,271 $53,387 2017/18 $58,438 $52,535 Source: Wyoming Department of Education staffing files. Model salaries from Wyoming Legislative Service Office. Teachers in calculated actual average include only those with regular K-12 classroom assignments. Salaries include only regular salary.

Figure 2: Average Annual Wages for Teachers and Comparable Workers in Wyoming, 2003/04 to 2016/17 Comparable Professional and Technical Teachers Occupations Workers School Ratio Ratio Year Average Average Average Teaching/ Teaching/ Wage Wage Wage Comparable Prof &Tech 2003/04 $40,057 $44,713 89.6% $46,818 85.6% 2004/05 $41,351 $46,875 88.2% $47,403 87.2% 2005/06 $43,188 $48,362 89.3% $48,948 88.2% 2006/07 $48,174 $52,016 92.6% $51,536 93.5% 2007/08 $52,459 $54,571 96.1% $55,628 94.3% 2008/09 $55,904 $57,830 96.7% $57,784 96.7% 2009/10 $57,014 $58,203 98.0% $59,178 96.3% 2010/11 $57,669 $59,352 97.2% $59,976 96.2% 2011/12 $59,268 $58,842 100.7% $61,355 96.6% 2012/13 $58,390 $59,950 97.4% $62,194 93.9% 2013/14 $58,687 $62,255 94.3% $63,713 92.1% 2014/15 $58,739 $63,507 92.5% $65,523 89.6% 2015/16 $58,867 $64,041 91.9% $67,182 87.6% 2016/17 $59,023 $65,536 90.1% $68,488 86.2% Period $53,485 $56,861 93.9% $58,266 91.7% Average Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics May Quarterly Occupational Employment Statistics. All ownerships across all NAICS.

Figure 3: Ratio of Teacher Wages to Wages in Professional/Technical Occupations, Wyoming and Other States, 2003/04 to 2016/17 Ratio in Ratio in United School Year Ratio in Wyoming Surrounding States States 2003/04 0.86 0.78 0.76 2004/05 0.87 0.79 0.76 2005/06 0.88 0.78 0.76 2006/07 0.93 0.77 0.78 2007/08 0.94 0.79 0.78 2008/09 0.97 0.75 0.78 2009/10 0.96 0.77 0.78 2010/11 0.96 0.75 0.78 2011/12 0.97 0.76 0.77 2012/13 0.94 0.76 0.77 2013/14 0.92 0.76 0.77 2014/15 0.90 0.75 0.76 2015/16 0.88 0.75 0.76 2016/17 0.86 0.74 0.76 Period Average 0.92 0.76 0.77

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics May Quarterly Occupational Employment Statistics. All ownerships across all NAICS.

Figures 4 and 5: Average Teacher Salaries in WY and surrounding states, 2003/04 to 2017/18 Year WY US CO ID MT NE SD UT 2003/04 $39,532 $46,752 $43,319 $41,080 $37,184 $38,352 $33,236 $38,976

2004/05 $40,392 $47,659 $44,161 $42,122 $38,485 $39,456 $34,040 $39,965

2005/06 $43,225 $49,026 $44,439 $41,150 $39,832 $40,382 $34,709 $40,007

2006/07 $50,692 $50,816 $45,833 $42,798 $41,225 $42,044 $35,378 $40,566

2007/08 $53,074 $52,308 $47,248 $44,099 $42,874 $42,885 $36,674 $41,615

2008/09 $54,602 $54,319 $48,487 $45,178 $44,426 $44,957 $35,070 $42,335

2009/10 $55,861 $55,202 $49,202 $46,283 $45,759 $46,227 $38,837 $45,885

2010/11 $56,978 $56,069 $49,938 $47,416 $47,132 $47,521 $35,201 $46,571

2011/12 $56,774 $55,389 $49,049 $48,551 $47,839 $48,154 $38,804 $48,159

2012/13 $56,775 $56,103 $49,844 $49,734 $48,855 $48,997 $39,018 $49,393

2013/14 $56,583 $56,648 $49,615 $44,465 $49,893 $49,539 $48,666 $45,695

2014/15 $57,414 $57,420 $49,828 $45,218 $50,670 $50,525 $50,025 $45,848

2015/16 $58,140 $58,353 $51,233 $46,122 $51,034 $51,386 $42,025 $46,887

2016/17 $58,187 $59,660 $51,808 $47,504 $51,422 $52,338 $46,979 $47,244

2017/18 $58,578 $60,483 $52,389 $49,225 $52,776 $53,473 $47,944 $47,604 Source: National Education Association, Estimates of School Statistics, 1959-60 through 2017-18.

Figure 6: Faction of New Hires with First BA Degree from Outside Wyoming, 2007 to 20117 School Year Fraction from Outside WY 2007 60% 2008 56% 2009 64% 2010 64% 2011 67% 2012 61% 2013 63% 2014 54% 2015 56% 2016 56% 2017 53% Period Average 59% Source: Based on Wyoming Department of Education Contract Files (WDE 602). Note that these percentages are based on candidates with known BA institutions. Candidates with unknown educational background are not included. Sheridan County School District #1 did not report accurate education data in recent years, and these teachers not included.

Figure 7: Trend in Student Enrollment in Wyoming, 2000-2027 Fall Enrollment Growth Rate Projection Status 2000 89,531 Actual Growth 2001 87,897 -1.8% Actual 2002 86,117 -2.0% Actual 2003 84,741 -1.6% Actual 2004 83,772 -1.1% Actual 2005 83,705 -0.1% Actual 2006 84,629 1.1% Actual 2007 85,578 1.1% Actual 2008 86,519 1.1% Actual 2009 87,420 1.0% Actual 2010 88,165 0.9% Actual 2011 89,476 1.5% Actual 2012 90,993 1.7% Actual 2013 92,218 1.3% Actual 2014 93,303 1.2% Actual 2015 94,002 0.7% Actual 2016 93,261 -0.8% Actual 2017 92,976 -0.3% Actual Projected Annual 2018 to 2020 -- .9% Growth Projected Annual 2019 to 2027 -- .6% Growth Source: Wyoming Department of Education Actual Enrollment for Fall 1990-2017. Projected Enrollment 2018-2027. National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2027.

Figure 8: Age Profile of WY Teachers, 2008/09 and 2017/18 Age 2008/09 2017/18 20-24 3.1% 2.1% 25-34 23.0% 25.1% 35-44 22.8% 29.6% 45-54 29.4% 24.5% 55-64 20.8% 16.8% 65+ 0.8% 1.9% Source: WY Department of Education Staffing files (WDE 602)

Figure 9: Fraction of WY Teachers of Age 60+, 2008/09 to 2017/18 Percent of Teachers Exit rate of Teachers Year 60+ 60+ 2008/09 7.5% 19.3% 2009/10 8.0% 21.9% 2010/11 8.9% 26.2% 2011/12 9.2% 24.6% 2012/13 9.4% 24.0% 2013/14 9.2% 25.8% 2014/15 8.6% 26.4% 2015/16 8.5% 25.3% 2016/17 8.6% 29.1% 2017/18 8.2% -- Source: WY Department of Education Staffing files (WDE 602)

Figure 10: Percent of Wyoming Teachers who are New Hires, Fall 2003-2017 Year Hire Rate 2007/08 9.1% 2008/09 10.5% 2009/10 9.6% 2010/11 7.9% 2011/12 9.7% 2012/13 10.2% 2013/14 10.6% 2014/15 10.5% 2015/16 10.4% 2016/17 9.1% 2017/18 7.2% Period Average 9.5% Source: WY Department of Education Staffing files (WDE 602)

Figure 11: Percent of Wyoming Teacher Exiting the Profession, 2007/08 – 2016/17 Less than 3 Years Midcareer Year All teachers Experience (4-20 years exp.) 2007/08 8.7% 12.1% 5.1% 2008/09 6.9% 10.5% 3.6% 2009/10 7.4% 10.7% 3.9% 2010/11 9.7% 13.6% 5.9% 2011/12 9.9% 13.6% 6.1% 2012/13 9.8% 13.2% 6.7% 2013/14 9.9% 12.3% 6.9% 2014/15 10.2% 13.6% 6.9% 2015/16 10.4% 14.1% 6.4% 2016/17 11.1% 14.7% 7.3% Period Average 9.4% 12.8% 5.9% Source: WY Department of Education Staffing files (WDE 602)

Labor Markets for Non-Teachers Employed by K-12 Districts in Wyoming

Report to the Joint Appropriations Committee and the Joint Education Committee September 2018

Report prepared by Dr. Christiana Stoddard

Executive Summary

This report focuses on indicators related to non-teaching staff positions, documenting the labor market conditions for these positions using metrics that are based on rapidly available data sources that track current conditions. This report focuses on two sets of indicators: comparative average annual wages for related occupations, and trends in turnover rates.

In general, salaries in non-teaching occupations in schools are competitive with other private and state government employers, with school employees typically making higher average annual salaries.

Many professional and classified staff salaries are higher in schools than in other public sector and private sector jobs. Librarians, social workers, and counselors have significantly higher salaries: the premium relative to annual salaries in other sectors is around 20 percent. Salaries for classified staff positions (janitors, food preparation workers, bus drivers) also tend to be higher than their market counterpoints, as do salaries for aides who make more about 10 percent more than teaching assistants or other personal support occupations. Salaries for network administrators and secretarial and clerical staff are much closer to market salaries. Nurses and speech pathologists are paid less in schools than elsewhere. However, all of these occupations compare favorably when using adjustments for weeks of work. These patterns are similar to those reported in Stoddard (2015).

Although these professional and classified staff positions have generally high salaries, turnover rates for most of the groups have risen modestly but steadily since 2008. For secretarial and office staff, classified staff (Maintenance and Operations, Food service, Transportation and Other), and Supervisory Aides, turnover rates have risen by 5 percentage points of more over this period.

School administrators, school principals in particular, have seen their advantage erode over time. In past years, principals in Wyoming had average salaries similar to general management occupations in the state. In May 2017, principal salaries were 3 percent lower than management salaries for other state and local employees, and 7 percent lower than in the private sector. Principals’ salaries have also eroded relative to other states. In the past, salaries in Wyoming for principals exceeded those in other states in the region by about 15 percent. By 2017, Nebraska’s principal salaries had surpassed those in Wyoming, and many other states in the region have also made salary gains. Today, Wyoming principal salaries rank 22nd in the nation, while in 2014 they ranked 16th. Model salaries have fallen even further.

If principals were paid according to model salaries in 2016/17, Wyoming would rank 32th in the nation, and the rank for 2017/18 is likely even lower as model salaries have declined and it is likely that salaries in other states have risen. Turnover rates for school and district administrators remain low, at around 10 percent for the last 4 years, but slightly above the 8 percent average turnover rate from 2006-2011.

These results should all be viewed with the understanding that annual salaries do not reflect different hours and weeks of work or other benefits. On a weekly comparison, salaries in schools exceed salaries in other sectors for nearly every occupation considered. Furthermore, turnover rates in the education sector in general remain well below those of other industries, and are most comparable to rates in public administration.

Data Sources and Classification of Non-Teaching Occupations

The indicators presented below compare salary or turnover rates for elementary and secondary school employees with private sector or state government employees. The principal data used come from the Wyoming Department of Workforce Services (DWS), which conducts a variety of surveys of employers in Wyoming. The primary data source used for the wage comparisons is the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey. This is a survey conducted of a sample of employers in Wyoming each quarter. The May results report mean wages by occupation. For this report, the DWS provided disaggregated results for (1) Elementary and Secondary schools in the local government sector (NAIS code 6111), (2) All private sector employees, and (3) State and local government employees. The OES is a sample of employers, so the specific employers that appear in the survey each year differ. Because these results are for occupational classifications and sampling differences in employers occur each year, comparisons over time are less appropriate to make.

Non-teaching positions in the OES survey are coded using Bureau of Labor Statistics Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) codes. These codes first provide a two-digit general occupational group (for example, “Management Occupations,” “Community and Social Service Occupations,” or “Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations”). The SOC codes used also include a second four-digit code that specifies a narrower occupation (for example, “Education Administrators--Elementary and Secondary School” or “Registered Nurses”).

Depending on the occupations, the tables reported in the body of this report include both the larger occupation groups and the narrower selected specific occupations that include many individuals employed by elementary and secondary schools.

The turnover statistics by occupation come from the fall staffing files from the Wyoming of Education (WDE). The data include all individuals (1) Who do not have a teaching assignment as part of their positions, and (2) Who have a position with at least FTE 0.50.

In order to have large enough groups for statistically valid comparisons, assignment codes listed in the WDE staffing files were grouped into categories to facilitate comparisons with the relevant markets and to calculate turnover rates. Occupations were grouped based on several factors: (1) Positions with the same Wyoming funding model salary were always aggregated, (2) WDE assigned “employee class” as well as the WDE general headings indicating the nature of the assignment, and (3) Positions with similar levels of required education (e.g., college degree required, license or certification required) were grouped.

3 The following occupational groups were used with the WDE staffing files:

1. School and Central Administration This includes the assignment codes of Principal, Assistant Principal, Superintendent, Assistant Superintendent, and Business Manager. Each of these positions is associated with a specific salary in the Wyoming funding model.

2. Professional Staff This includes many of the occupations that require a college degree. These include all licensed or certified positions, all of which are funded using the teacher salary in the funding model. Licensed or Certified professionals include Librarians, Counselors, Psychologists, Social Workers, and Nurses. The Professional staff category also includes Library and Media Technicians, who are also listed as Computer Technicians. Finally, this category includes all positions classified by the WDE with an employee class of “Administration” but that are not included in the above category. These include positions like Special Education Director and Human Resource Director, for example.

3. Secretary/Clerical Staff This category includes all positions coded as Secretary/Clerical by the WDE. This includes the funding model categories of School Secretary, School Clerical, Central Office Secretary, as well as a number of other secretarial and clerical positions.

4. Other Classified Staff This occupation group includes all remaining classified positions, with the exception of supervisory aides. This group aggregates all Operations and Maintenance positions (Custodians, Groundskeepers, Maintenance), Food Service, Transportation, Other Classified Student Support positions.

5. Supervisory Aides Supervisory Aides include all regular Special Education aides, including Instructional, Student support, Playground, Library/Media, Special Education, Title I, and Transportation, among others.

4 How Do Salaries in K-12 Schools Compare to Market Salaries for Non- Teachers?

In many ways, monitoring market pressures on non-teaching staff salaries is less difficult than monitoring teaching salary pressures. Many of the non-teaching staff positions in schools have counterparts in other industries, allowing easier transitions to a different employer and thereby allowing for more precise measures of specific market pressures.

However, there are still a number of differences between non-teaching positions in elementary and secondary schools and their counterpart positions for other employers.

• First, the contract hours worked differ across the sectors. Elementary and secondary school have nine-month contracts for a number of positions. As a result, some of the comparisons include both monthly and annual salary comparisons for positions in public schools that are typically on 10 month contract. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, salaried professional workers typically receive eight paid holidays and two to three weeks of paid vacation depending on the length of service.1 Accordingly, the analysis uses 37 weeks of work for teachers and related occupations and 47 weeks of work for non-school employers. • Second, retirement and health benefits are typically more generous than those for many private employers. However, little information is available for benefits comparisons across occupations. • Third, even similar occupational titles may involve significantly different duties in another sector—for example, chief executives or computer technicians for private employers may have a substantially different scope of activities than their counterparts in elementary and secondary schools. • Finally, the data sources used in this report do not report age or work experience, leading to potentially different wages due to other factors than simply market differences. With these caveats in mind, Tables 1 through 6 present the latest comparisons between salaries in public schools, private sector employees, and state government employees.

1 For details, see Bureau of Labor Statistics “Paid leave in private industry over the past 20 years,” Beyond the Numbers: Pay and Benefits Bulletin, August 2013, Vol 2. No. 18. http://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume- 2/paid-leave-in-private-industry-over-the-past-20-years.htm Accessed on Sept. 15, 2015

5 Category 1: Administrative Positions

Table 1 reports the average annual salary for Administrators. This table makes several comparisons. The first column in the top panel reports the average salary that would be generated by the funding model—that is, taking the experience and education of each administrator, it computes the model salary for that individual and averages across all administrators. The second column reports the actual average salary as paid by districts. Note that in order to compare to OES data, the latest of which are reported for May 2017, these report salaries for the 2016/17 school year. Model salaries for these administrative positions declined by about 2 percent from 2016/17 to 2017/18. This decline is not reflected in Table 1.

The bottom panel shows that average administrator and management salaries reported in the Occupational Employment Statistics. These compare salaries for given occupational classifications in public schools, private employers, and other public employers.

Table 1: K-12 Administrative Positions, May 2017 Funding Model FTE Actual Average Salary Funding Model Title Weighted Average Salary WDE Files (2016/17) (2016/17) Superintendent $114,359 $139,218 Assistant Superintendent $109,093 $131,041 Business Manager $77,894 $96,621 Principals $86,594 $95,931 Assistant Principals $74,333 $89,604 OES Data State and Local Government OES Occupation Title K-12 Schools Private Industry excluding Public Education All Management $100,112 $102,136 $98,300 Occupations Chief Executives $140,075 $164,704 $142,500 General/Operations $113,012 $112,859 $116,200 Managers Financial Manager $99,728 $113,628 $97,000 Education Administrator, $95,128 -- -- Elem./Sec. School Source: DWS provided analysis of OES Survey, May 2017. Funding Model FTE Weighted Average Salaries from Continued Review of Educational Resources in Wyoming, 2017. Model FTE weighted average salaries are adjusted to reflect predicted model salary based on experience, education, and RCA.

6 Table 1 shows that actual salaries exceed model salaries by 20-24 percent for central office administrators. Principals have about half that premium, with actual salaries exceeding model salaries by about 11 percent. The OES surveyed salaries are in line with those reported by the WDE.

The bottom panel shows that management salaries in public schools in general are below those in private industry and for other public employers. This is in contrast to the counterpart to this report published in 2015 (reporting 2014 salaries), when school administrative salaries were above management salaries in other sectors. Salaries for superintendents and financial managers now are significantly lower than their counterparts in the private sector, although the comparison is closer with other state and local employers.

Obviously, there is not an exact counterpart for school principals in other industries. However, it is worth noting that principal salaries exceeded salaries for management occupations on average in 2014, but now lie 3-7 percent below the average in other sectors. However, this comparison does not adjust for weeks of work. Typically, school principals work about 10 months a year, or 43 weeks, as compared with a minimum of 47 weeks for other administrators.

Table 2 compares the salaries of elementary and secondary school principals in Wyoming with other states in the region, as reported in the OES. As with teachers, Wyoming salaries for principals lie above those of most other states in the region, although Nebraska’s salaries for principals are now higher and principals in North Dakota and Colorado have salaries that are only slightly below those in Wyoming. Another way to see this is that Wyoming’s rank among other states has fallen from 16th in 2014 to 22nd. Model salaries rank even lower. If principals were paid according to the model schedule in 2016/2017, their salaries would rank at 32nd in the nation. Model salaries for 2017/18 school year are 2 percent lower ($85,057). If compared to the May 2017 salaries, these would put Wyoming at 35th in the nation, but if other states raised over the past year, Wyoming would rank even lower.

7 Table 2: Elementary and Secondary School Administrator Salaries, Wyoming and Comparison States, OES 2009 to 2017

May 2009 May 2014 May 2017 $85,057 $86,594 Funding Model FTE Weighted Average Salary Rank = 27 Rank = 32 $86,030 $93,370 $95,128 WY actual (OES) Rank = 20 Rank = 16 Rank = 22 CO $79,310 $84,370 $90,430 ID $73,240 $78,880 $79,080 MT $65,120 $74,320 $83,120 ND $70,960 $84,710 $92,190 NE $80,950 $90,490 $99,550 SD $65,590 $74,900 $79,210 UT $78,940 $85,960 $87,330 Source: OES Survey, May 2009-2017. Funding Model FTE Weighted Average Salaries from Continued Review of Educational Resources in Wyoming, 2018. Model FTE weighted average salaries are adjusted to reflect predicted model salary based on experience, education, and RCA.

Category 2: Professional Staff

Table 3 reports salaries for professional occupations. Most require a college degree and many additionally require certification or a license. Except for computer technicians, the other professional occupations reported below all have model salaries equivalent to teachers.

Weeks of work are particularly different across sectors for professional workers. Assuming 185 contract days, this translates into 37 weeks of work a year. The numbers in parentheses represent weekly wages, with the conservative assumption that non-school employees work 47 weeks a year. 2

2 For details, see Bureau of Labor Statistics “Paid leave in private industry over the past 20 years,” Beyond the Numbers: Pay and Benefits Bulletin, August 2013, Vol 2. No. 18. http://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume- 2/paid-leave-in-private-industry-over-the-past-20-years.htm Accessed on Sept. 15, 2015

8 Table 3: Average Annual and Weekly Salaries for Professional Staff Positions, OES May 2017 State and Local Government OES Occupation Title K-12 Schools Private Sector excluding Public Education Clinical, Counseling, $76,240 annual $51,260 annual $75,200 annual School Psychologists ($2,060/week) ($1,090/week) ($1,600/week) Child, Family, and School $61,590 annual $40,720 annual $45,500 annual Social Workers ($1,660/week) ($870/week) ($970/week) Educational, Vocational, $63,950 annual $38,590 annual $45,500 annual School Counselors ($1,730/week) ($820/week) ($970/week) $57,220 annual $55,700 annual Mental Health counselors -- ($1,220/week) ($1,120/week) $53,680 annual $60,300 annual $67,200 annual Registered Nurses ($1,450/week) ($1,280/week) ($1,430/week) $63,890 annual $87,270 annual $83,700 annual Speech Pathologists ($1,730/week) ($1,860/week) ($1,780/week) Librarians, curators, $64,140 annual $33,100 annual $48,400 annual archivists ($1,6730/week) ($704/week) ($1,030/week) $56,080 annual $67,100 annual $59,300 annual Computer specialists ($1,520/week) ($1,430/week) ($1,260/week) Source: OES Survey, May 2017.

Table 3 shows that for psychologists and counselors, salaries are comparable or significantly higher in elementary and secondary schools than for other state and local employers. Private sector jobs tend to be even lower paid.

Nurses and speech pathologists, on the other hand, have lower annual salaries in the schools than in the private sector or in other public sector jobs. Librarians tend to be higher paid, while computer technicians tend to have lower salaries. However, for all occupations, comparisons of weekly wages put salaries in schools above those for private sector and other public sector workers.

9 Category 3: Secretarial and Clerical Positions

Table 4 reports secretary and clerical salaries. Secretarial and clerical positions are among some of the positions with the cleanest market counterparts, although contract hours differ between schools and other employers. Central office and school secretaries work 2080 hours, representing full time, full year work. School clerical staff have 1600 contract hours, representing 40 weeks of work. These are again compared to non-school employees with 47 weeks of work.

Average salaries are about $2,500 more than model salaries. Actual salaries are close to or exceed market salaries for most of these positions. School secretaries and specialized clerks have salaries that are significantly higher than in other sectors, while general office clerks and administrative assistants and executive secretaries lie below private sector salaries. Note that again the shorter weeks of work produce significantly higher weekly salaries for K-12 positions.

Table 4: Average Annual Salaries for Secretarial and Clerical Positions, May 2017 Funding Model FTE Weighted Average Salary 2016/17 $33,605 District Average Actual Salary in WDE files 2016/17 $35,220 State and Local Government OES Occupation Title K-12 Schools Private Sector excluding Public Education Clerks: Bookkeeping/ $42,740 annual $38,400 annual $39,400 annual Accounting/Auditing ($1,070/week) ($820/week) ($840/week) Executive Secretaries and Admin. $52,670 annual $55,590 annual $45,600 annual Assistants ($1,320/week) ($1,180/week) ($970/week) Secretaries, (Not Legal, Medical, Exec.) $39,420 annual $34,680 annual $37,300 annual ($990/week) ($740/week) ($790/week) Office Clerks, General $32,600 annual $35,210 annual $33,100 annual ($820/week) ($750/week) ($700/week) Source: DWS provided analysis of OES Survey, May 2017. Funding Model FTE Weighted Average Salaries from Continued Review of Educational Resources in Wyoming, 2018. Model FTE weighted average salaries are adjusted to reflect predicted model salary based on experience, education, and RCA.

10 Category 4: Other Classified Staff Positions (Operations and Maintenance)

Schools employ a number of other classified staff. Table 5 shows that these classified school employees tend to make substantially more than their non-school counterparts, both in the private sector and in other public sector jobs. The public school salary premium has expanded in the last 4 years, with salaries for all occupations exceeding the private and public school counterparts. As with secretarial clerical staff, actual salaries for these classified positions are about $1500 more than model salaries.

Operations and maintenance staff work the full calendar year, although food preparation and bus drivers work the 185 school contract days. As with the other tables, this table assumes that non-school employees work 47 weeks a year, however for many of these types of positions, it is likely that weeks of work are higher than for professional salaried positions.

Table 5: Average Annual Salaries for Other Classified Staff Positions, May 2017 Funding Model FTE Weighted Average Salary for Operations $35,061 and Maintenance staff 2016/17 District Average Actual Salary for Operations and Maintenance $36,601 staff in WDE files 2016/17 State and Local Government OES Occupation Title K-12 Schools Private Sector excluding Public Education Janitors and Cleaners (Not $34,950 $27,230 $28,600 Maids/Housekeeping) Maintenance and Repair $46,220 $42,580 $42,000 Workers, General Cooks, institution and $30,910 annual $27,700 annual $30,000 annual cafeteria ($840/week) ($590/week) ($640/week) Bus Drivers, School or $37,000 annual $28,150 annual $33,900 annual Special Client ($ 1000 /week) ($600/week) ($720/week) Bus Drivers, Transit and $28,560 annual $33,700 annual -- Intercity ($610 /week) ($720/week) Source: DWS provided analysis of OES Survey, May 2017. Funding Model FTE Weighted Average Salaries from Continued Review of Educational Resources in Wyoming, 2018. Model FTE weighted average salaries are adjusted to reflect predicted model salary based on experience, education, and RCA.

11 Category 5: Supervisory Aides

The final job category in the model is “Supervisory Aides.” In the model, Supervisory Aides are not instructional aides—that is, they are playground monitors, lunchroom monitors, and others who provide supervision rather than instruction. The model also provides funding for tutors—licensed teachers who provide additional instruction.

However, it appears from the hiring data that most school districts hire some form of instructional aides—positions may provide both supervision and classroom support.

This occupation does not have an exact counterpart in the OES data. The occupational group to which Supervisory Aides, instructional aides, and other student support workers below is “Teaching Assistants” in the OES survey. However, it appears that these aides are paid about $23,503 by districts, as compared to $20,031 in the model. In the OES data, “Teaching Assistants” are paid $30,350, implying that OES classifications and the WDE classifications are not well aligned.

Supervisory aides do not have very clear private sector counterparts, and there were few positions listed for state employees that parallel this job. In contrast to the 3,500 teaching assistants reported by schools in the OES survey, there were only about 300 teaching assistants in the private sector. This occupation also tends to require a less specialized skill set. Table 6 therefore also reports a few other occupations that require a similar level of training and similar expertise to enable richer comparisons.

Again, private sector counterparts typically work more weeks per year than teacher assistants. However, because these occupations are so diverse, weekly wages are not reported.

12 Table 6: Average Annual Salaries for Supervisory Aides and Support Occupations, May 2017 Funding Model Weighted Average Salary 2016/17 $20,031 District Average Actual Salary in WDE files 2016/17 $23,503 State and Local Government OES Occupation Title K-12 Schools Private Sector excluding Public Education

Teacher Assistants $30,350 annual $27,300 annual --

Other Service Occupations

Child Care Workers $23,330 annual $29,100 annual

Personal and Home Care Aides $ 24,890 annual $26,500 annual

Healthcare Support Occupations $30,780 annual $33,300 annual Source: OES Survey, May 2017. Funding Model FTE Weighted Average Salaries from Continued Review of Educational Resources in Wyoming, 2018. Model FTE weighted average salaries are adjusted to reflect predicted model salary based on experience, education, and RCA.

13 How do Turnover Rates Compare for Non-Teaching Occupations?

As with teachers, there is a second way to think about how competitive occupations in schools are with the broader labor market. Instead of looking just at salaries, this second set of indicators examines turnover rates. These rates will reflect the difficulty schools have in retaining individuals in these non-teaching positions. Rising turnover rates can signal that districts have more positions to fill and also that compensation may not be attractive enough to retain individuals in elementary and secondary school employment.

Figures 1 through 6 present turnover rates for the occupational groups delineated above. Turnover rates are defined as the proportion of individuals in a given occupational class who are no longer employed in that class by the same district in the subsequent year. Turnover rates are calculated by including only individuals without a teaching component to their job to abstract from any influence of the teaching labor market. Only positions with at least 0.50 FTE are included. This is because the coding of many positions with small associated FTE (e.g., advisor) does not appear to be true turnover, but simply reflects temporary assignments. Turnover rates for individuals who are employed part time (<0.50 FTE) are also likely to belong to a different market segment.

Individuals are not counted as exiting even if their assignment code changes, as long as the overall class of employment (e.g., aide, administration) remains the same. For example, if Jane is an assistant principal this year, and next year chooses to become a teacher, she is counted in the exit rate for administrators. However, if she instead becomes the principal next year, this is counted as continuous employment in the same occupational class as she remained an administrator. This would not be counted as an exit.

Each figure includes two series. The first is turnover rate of all employees in that class. The second is the turnover rate of new hires—individuals not employed in that district in the previous year. This second turnover rate is reported because exits of new hires represent higher training costs--brand new hires require more district time and resources to achieve high productivity in their jobs. New hires are also more likely to be of the same age, and exits are not likely to be related to retirement.

14 Turnover Rates Within Elementary and Secondary Schools by Occupational Group

Exit rates are highest for aides (about 19%) and non-teaching classified staff (17%). They are lowest for administrators and professional staff (both about 10%), and office support staff (about 12 percent).

The figures show that turnover rates for many of these occupations have exhibited a steady rise since 2008. The rate of increase is modest for administrators and professional staff but is more rapid for clerical staff, classified staff, and aides where the increase since 2008 has been 5 percentage point or more.

In general, exit rates of new hires are higher than the overall exit rate, which is to be expected as new hires are discovering whether the position is a good match. School administrators are an exception to this, where turnover for new hires and more experienced hires are similar.

Figure 1: Annual Exit Rates Across Occupations in K-12 Schools, Full and part time employees, 2005-2016