vehicle registrations rrr 27/1/06 12:43 Page 17

PlayingPlaying thethe percentagepercentage gamegame

On the face of it, end-of-year registration figures from the SMMT suggest that all is quiet on the UK bus and coach market front. The people who make, sell and operate these vehicles tell a different tale, and those at Volvo seem to have most to smile about. Meanwhile over in the market, Daf achieved an unprecedented clean sweep. Tim Blakemore and David Wilcox report.

ntroducing his pre-budget report last stability), ongoing business confidence, and November, even the ever-optimistic chancellor change in the structure of our industry.” But he IGordon Brown felt compelled to describe also points out that the underlying growth in 2005 as “the toughest and most challenging year demand for is not quite as strong as the for the UK economy.” No wonder. The UK’s gross bare figures suggest. Ford recognised last year domestic product grew last year by only 1.75 per that buyers want 17-seaters above all, cent, the lowest annual figure since 1992 and and to carry this number of passengers a way below Mr Brown’s own forecast of 3.0-3.5 vehicle’s gross weight really needs to be above per cent at the start of the year. 3.5 tonnes. This is why the Ford Transit 17-seat Mercedes-Benz Now if there is one thing on which minibus went to 4.1 tonnes and why Ford tractive units: outselling rivals economists and truck-market pundits can agree, registrations in the 3.5-tonnes-plus market thus from Volvo and it is that the general state of a truck market leapt from 678 in 2004 to 1,756 last year. Mr Scania for the depends crucially on GDP. You don’t need to be Thorneycroft-Smith also acknowledges that as first time. an LSE professor to understand why. The greater business and consumer confidence slipped in the the economic activity, the more goods have to be delivered to shops and homes, and the more vehicles are required to carry them. All of which should mean that depressed GDP growth translates into a sluggish truck market. Yet the 2005 UK commercial vehicle market (trucks and vans) was, in the words last month of newly- promoted UK managing director Christopher Thorneycroft-Smith, delivering his latest annual detailed analysis, “the biggest van and truck market ever, since records began… up to a massive 196,532 registrations at 2.8 tonnes and above.” And this cannot be explained away by growth in demand for vans and light vehicles alone. In what is generally regarded as the “real truck” portion of the market, over 3.5 tonnes gvw, the registrations total grew last year by 4.5 per cent to 58,841, the highest peak since 1989. How can these remarkable figures, higher than even the most ambitious forecasts of twelve months ago, be squared with the UK’s near- stagnant GDP? Mr Thorneycroft-Smith’s answer, in a nutshell, is “stability in the economy (at least relative

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second half of last year so did demand for trucks, registrations grew by 2.1 per cent, according to enough to cause truck makers and their dealers The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders to start watching the numbers closely. But he (SMMT). But much depends on where the line emphasises that “people aren’t cancelling orders, separating buses and coaches from other right left and centre as they used to when there vehicles is drawn. Registrations of over 8,000 was a downturn in the UK economic cycle.” For small “” and small coaches with gross his counterpart at the Thame, Oxfordshire base weights below about 7.5 tonnes are excluded for of Daf Trucks in the UK, managing director Stuart some reason from the SMMT figures. They Hunt, the biggest challenge last year must have therefore fail to reflect strong growth in demand been coping with the sheer volume of orders last year for minibuses at 3.5-8.5 tonnes gvw, up being placed right, left and centre. Whichever by almost 70 per cent to 3,106. way you measure it, 2005 was an extraordinarily Volvo Bus has unquestionably strengthened successful year for Daf Trucks in the UK. Not its firm grip on the UK market for “big” buses and only did the Paccar subsidiary strengthen its coaches. Volvo is now the top-selling marque in position at the head of the 3.5-tonnes-plus three sectors of the market: coach, double-deck registrations league table, it also outsold all rivals and full-size single-deck buses. sales in every market sector in which there is a Daf were the only big disappointment for Volvo last presence, the first time this has been achieved year, with registrations of the Volvo-badged Merit by any truck-maker. It is not hard to see why the plunging from 50 to 13 while the rival normally-restrained Mr Hunt was moved to Solo and Alexander sold in their hundreds. As widely expected (Transport Engineer February 2005), demand for double-deck buses continued to decline last year, falling from a 20- year peak in 2003 as the big replacement programme driven by Transport for winds down. Double-decker registrations were down by 18.8 per cent to 942. Sales of midibuses (from 8.5 to 16 tonnes gvw) grew by 2.1 per cent to 1,135. But registrations of larger single-deck buses (above 16-tonnes gvw) surged ahead by 42.5 per cent to 811, according to the SMMT. Volvo was the main beneficiary here, courtesy of a huge order from First for almost 500 buses (Transport Engineer December 2004). Around 460 of these were registered in 2005, including more than 250 B7RLE single-deckers, so registrations of this chassis more than trebled last year. Though registrations of its popular B7TL double-deck chassis fell back from 614 to 570, Volvo nevertheless increased its share of the declining double-deck market to a dominant 60

describe 2005 as a year of “fantastic success for Trucks above 3.5 tonnes gvw Source: SMMT and industry sources Daf Trucks: Daf.” heading sales manufacturer (parent 2005 2004 percentage Though the overall number of 32.5 tonnes- charts in every or controlling group) change sector of the plus tractive unit registration grew by an truck market. unspectacular 5.5 per cent last year, this was the Daf Trucks (Paccar) 14,987 12,613 +18.8 sector of the market in which individual Mercedes-Benz 10,474 10,032 +4.4 manufacturers experienced some of the greatest (DaimlerChrysler) turbulence. Daf stormed away at the head of the table with an end-of-year total that was an Iveco (Fiat) 7,864 7,987 -1.5 astonishing 2,000 units ahead of second-placed Volvo 6,195 5,860 +5.7 Mercedes. The big losers here last year were ERF, Foden and Seddon Atkinson. Also worthy of Scania (Volkswagen) 5,678 5,818 -2.4 note is Iveco’s 75 per cent surge upwards among MAN 4,218 4,634 -9.0 the middle-ranking marques, and the fact that Renault Trucks (Volvo) 2,249 2,593 -13.3 Mercedes tractive units outsold Volvos and Scania by a clear margin, the first time this has Ford 1,756 678 +159 happened in the UK. (ABN Amro) 835 794 +5.2 The UK market for new buses and coaches grew only modestly last year, by a little under five Foden (Paccar) 705 700 +0.7 per cent. But anyone who takes this to mean that ERF (MAN) 669 1,400 -52.2 the past twelve months have been largely Volkswagen 620 418 +48.3 uneventful in the bus and coach business will find few vehicle suppliers who agree. Many saw Mitsubishi (DaimlerChrysler) 409 417 -1.9 their sales figures move up or down by 20 per Seddon Atkinson (Fiat) 284 381 -25.5 cent or more last year, even though the size of the cake feeding them all hardly changed. An BMC 29 28 +3.6 annual total of 4,198 registrations is almost Hino (Toyota) 22 33 -33.3 exactly the long-term average of the past eight Others 1,589 1,926 -17.5 years. Compared with 2004, bus registrations were TOTAL 58,841 56,312 +4.5 up by 5.6 per cent in 2005 whereas coach

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per cent. The double-decker market looks set to were the new Tempo single-deck bus, launched become intriguing as operators determine their in October 2004. “We actually sold 50, which was policies on Euro-4 vehicles. Volvo has to spot on our first-year target, so the remainder will persuade operators to move up from the 7.3-litre show in the 2006 figures,” he says. Optare is DC7 engine in the B7TL to the new 9.4-litre D9B aiming to sell 75 Tempos this year, and Mr in its successor, the Euro-4 B9TL (Transport Coombes is confident of hitting this target. “We Engineer November 2005). The first two-axle are delighted with progress,“ he says. “Tempo is B9TL double-deckers are due to enter service in producing particularly good fuel returns.” But it is London in the second quarter of this year. Arch- the popular Solo midibus that continues to drive rival (ADL) meanwhile is intent the Optare business, now under new ownership on convincing operators that the future of double- after Mr Coombes and his fellow senior deckers lies with smaller engines. Its Euro-4 managers bought the company from NABI last Trident and Enviro400 deckers are powered by summer (Transport Engineer September 2005). the new 6.7-litre Cummins ISBe in place of the Introducing longer, shorter and narrower versions 8.3-litre Cummins ISC used in Euro-3 versions broadened Solo’s appeal last year. “We overtook (Transport Engineer December 2005). Dart as the top-selling midibus last year,” points After a tough 2004, when the TransBus out Mr Coombes. “The slimline Solo (2.33m International business collapsed and its chassis wide) has done extremely well, generating some and bodybuilding operations were reborn as incremental sales.” Alexander Dennis, the new company was hoping Optare aims to widen the appeal of Solo still to start the long climb back last year. But SMMT figures show that ADL’s chassis registrations slipped by a further 27 per cent to 680 in 2005, leaving Volvo with what looks like an unassailable lead in the bus and coach market. What a turn- around since 2003, when TransBus sat firmly on top of the pile. But ADL’s head of chassis sales Andy Boulton is anything but downcast, pointing out that the SMMT figures paint an incomplete picture of the business. ”We built over 1,000 chassis last year, exceeding all the targets we set ourselves,” insists Mr Boulton. “We are working more efficiently and with fewer people. We have brought new product to market, as we promised. We’ve had a phenomenal year.” The discrepancy between Mr Boulton’s figures and the SMMT’s apparently are accounted for by exports, about 20 per cent of the total, and 65 Javelin coaches supplied to the Ministry of Defence. Military registrations are excluded from SMMT figures. Mr Boulton is further this year by adding engine options. At Big numbers: bullish about ADL’s prospects for 2006. “We are present the choice is between the four-cylinder Volvo’s new 9700 first off the blocks with Euro-4 product,” he says. Mercedes OM904 and six-cylinder Cummins integral coach “You can already ride on eight of our Euro-4 ISBe. The Solo’s Euro-4 engine line-up will also with B12B buses and there are 15 Euro-4-engined Enviro include the MAN four-cylinder 4.48-litre D0834. underframe tips 400 chassis going through the production hall Rated at 177hp and 700Nm, its output sits neatly the balance still right now. They will be going into service with between the other two Euro-4 engines. And the further towards London General and London Central (both Go- MAN six-cylinder D0836 (6.87-litres, 276hp, rear-engined Ahead subsidiaries) in April.” 1,100Nm) will be offered in the Tempo as a coaches. Optare has fulfilled its ambitious prophecy beefier alternative to the six-cylinder, 6.37-litre with a 23 per cent growth in registrations, about Mercedes OM906. The objective is to woo 100 vehicles, in 2005. Optare managing director operators who may prefer MAN’s combination of Bob Coombes says that just over 30 of these exhaust-gas recirculation (EGR) and particulate filter/catalyst to the selective catalytic reduction Tractive units over 32,520kg gcw. Source: SMMT and industry sources (SCR) systems adopted by both DaimlerChrysler and Cummins. Mr Coombes admits to being manufacturer (parent 2005 2004 percentage uncertain how popular the EGR option will prove, or controlling group) change but he notes that bus operators have been slow Daf Trucks (Paccar) 5,458 4,199 +30.0 to invest in the AdBlue filling equipment needed for Euro-4 vehicles depending on SCR to cut Mercedes-Benz oxides of nitrogen (NOX) levels. (DaimlerChrysler) 3,458 3,255 +6.2 DaimlerChrysler’s bus and coach business, Volvo 3,290 3,447 -4.6 EvoBus, was unable to prevent Mercedes-Benz Scania (Volkswagen) 3,242 3,340 -2.9 bus registrations slipping back in 2005 in the UK. The company blames the slowdown in the MAN 1,596 1,186 +34.6 numbers of articulated Citaro buses bought by Iveco (Fiat) 967 552 +75.2 London operators last year. Registrations of DaimlerChrysler’s Setra coaches are bundled Renault Trucks (Volvo) 911 1,125 -19.0 into the “others” section of the SMMT figures this ERF (MAN) 514 1,219 -57.8 year. Foden (Paccar) 276 352 -21.6 BMC (UK) struggles to make headway in the UK truck market but is doing rather better in the Seddon Atkinson (Fiat) 1 11 -90.9 bus business, largely thanks to its no-nonsense TOTAL 19,715 18,689 +5.5 Falcon1100FE schoolbus. BMC registrations were up by a third last year to 101. No fewer than

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per cent to 371, accounting for over 42 per cent of the UK full-size (above 16-tonnes gvw) coach market. Few other manufacturers saw coach sales rise last year. Scania coach registrations dipped from 199 to 186, though much stronger bus sales (particularly of the UK-built OmniDekka double- decker) more than compensated for this, leaving Scania’s total bus and coach registrations 14 per cent up. Both EvoBus brands, Mercedes and Setra, suffered falls in coach sales, from a combined total of 81 to 61. The two brands in MAN’s Neoman bus and coach stable, Neoplan and MAN, did better than EvoBus in the UK full- size coach market but their combined coach registration total was still a shade down, dropping from 86 to 77. Sales of Dutch-built Bova coaches seem to have collapsed last year, with registrations down 70 of these are the Falcon schoolbus. BMC (UK) by 28 per cent from 80 to 58. But Karl Moseley of Time for Tempo: marketing manager John Mulkeen says the Pontefract-based Bova importer Moseley (PCV) Optare’s single- decker has easily company has an ambitious sales target of 170 explains that all is not quite what it seems. “We met initial sales for this year, buoyed up partly by the recent would expect to be running at about 70 a year, targets. of the Condor. This is intended to play a with about 50 Futuras and 20 Magiqs,” he says. dual role, as service bus and schoolbus. Unlike “But we had an order for a dozen from D the low-tech, high-floor, front-engined Falcon, Coaches of Swansea, for the 2004 and 2005 (which continues to be sold) this is an integral, seasons. The timing of it meant that they were all low-floor, rear-engined bus, 11.9 metres long. registered in the 2004 calendar year, skewing the In 2004 Volvo’s rear-engined B12B coach figures. Our underlying business level is far more chassis outsold the mid-engined B12M for the stable than the numbers suggest.” first time. Unsurprisingly, that trend continued last Iveco’s Irisbus bounced back after a poor year, with the balance swinging two-to-one in year in 2004. Sales of its 12-metre Eurorider favour of B12B. Less predictable was the steady coach chassis were back on track, rising from a growth in the popularity of B7R chassis, whose dismal 12 in 2004 to 48 last year. Another numbers grew from 69 to 86. The combined total notable Irisbus success was sales of large (5.2 for these three Volvo coach chassis grew by 17 and 6.5 tonnes gvw) Daily-based minibuses. The consensus is that there will be no big change in bus and coach sales in the UK this year. “In 2006, we expect a stable market, albeit with some distortion possible as Euro-4 emission regulations take effect,” says SMMT chief executive Christopher Macgowan. Volvo marketing manager Adrian Wickens agrees. “We are budgeting for a similar year and we don’t see much sign of a Euro-4 pull-forward,” he says. Around 25 per cent of all Volvo’s annual coach registrations come in March, as operators make the most of the registration number change in time for the new coaching season, so the accuracy of Mr Wickens’ forecast will soon be put to the acid test. 1/4 ad Buses and coaches (source: SMMT and industry sources) manufacturer (parent 2005 2004 percentage or controlling group) change knorr bremse Volvo 1,335 1,092 +22.5 Alexander Dennis 680 926 -26.6 Scania (Volkswagen) 537 473 +13.5 repeat Dec 05 Optare 517 422 +22.5 Irisbus (Fiat) 364 236 +54.2 Mercedes-Benz (DaimlerChrysler) 194 225 -13.8 VDL Bus (VDL) 137 199 -31.2 MAN 110 113 -2.7 BMC 101 76 +32.9 Bova (VDL) 58 80 -27.5 Others 165 170 -2.9 TOTAL 4,198 4,012 +4.6

20 Transport Engineer February 2005