China Yellow River Basin Investment Plannirig Study

ReportNo. 11146-CHA China Yellow RiverBasin Investment Plannirig Study (In TwoVolumes) Volume1l-Main Report Public Disclosure Authorized June30, 1993 AgricultureOperations Division Chinaand Mongolia Department EastAsia and Pacific Regional Office

FOR OFFICIALUSE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized

. Public Disclosure Authorized

-pocum,nof-theWorddRank Public Disclosure Authorized

Thisdorunmethas arestricted distribution and may be used by recipients onlintheperormance of ther officialduties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosewithout World Bank aulthorization. CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS

Cufrency Unit: Yuan (Y)

$1.00 = Y S.4 Y 1.00 = $0.1851

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 - December31

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES

Metric System I ha= 15mu I mu = 0.06666 ha

ACRONYM AND ABBREVIATIONS

BLM Basin-LevelModel CCPN Central China Power Network GOC Governmentof China GVAO Gross Value of Agriculural Output GVIO Gross Value of Industrial Output MGM Ministry of Geologyand Mining M&I Municipaland Industial MOA Ministry of Agriculture MOC Ministry of Communication MOE Ministry of Energy MOP Ministry of Finance MOT Ministry of Transport MURC Ministry of Urban and Rural Construction MWR Ministry of Water Resources NCGWR National CoordinationGroup on Water Resources NCPN North China Power Network NEPA National EnvironmentalProtection Agency NWPN NorthwestChina Power Network RBC River Basin ConservancyCommission RDPI Resach, Design and Planning Institute SEPC State EnvironmentalProtection Commission SPC State Planning Commission WRB Water ResourcesBureau YRCC YellowRiver Conserancy Commission FOR OFFICIALUU ONLY

CONTENTS

1 Badcgroundand CrIcal Prob ulnaBaslnPbanmnlg ...... 1

A. Backgrn g o n ...... 1 B. Key River Contol Effects ...... 2 C. W MmanaementConflicts ...... 12 D. nstitionalContext...... 1S

2 Regow andReseurwes ...... 19

A. HumanResources ...... 19 B. Land ...... 21 C. SurfaceWater ...... 21 D. Groundwat ...... 22 B. Indusral Base...... 24 F. RegionalDelineation ...... 25

3 Water In tLe Regonal Ecoomy...... 34 A. Agrictua Development...... 34 B. Crop Area, Producdon,andYields...... 35 C. Benefltof rrigation...... 37 D. Municipaland Industi Use ...... 47 E. HydroelectticPower...... 49 4 mhCurrent Water Bial Stuadon ...... 54 A. 'hel9,9 Dat ...... 54 B. Thel987Data ...... 54 C. YRCCProjecions to 19 ...... 54 D. TheBasin-LevelModelandResults ...... 58 E. ConcludingReniarksaouttheCurrm Stuaon ...... 66

s Iivesmentoptions...... 67 A. Oveiew ...... 67 B. RiverHaressing andRegulation ...... 71 C. Waterand Soil Conservation...... 73 D. I tigtion ...... 74

Thisdocumont has a fesftite disrbudfi and masybe used by rocipents only in the pwtfo la of their oMcia duties. Its contents may not otvws be dbcbs6d without Wodd Bank authodzua.o* E. HydropowerPlants ...... 75 F. MultipurpseResevoirs ...... 77 G. TradeoffsamongInvestment Opdons ...... 83

6 War BalanceIn the Y'ear 2000...... 87

A. YRCC Projecions ...... 87 B. SimulationsbytheBLM ...... 87 C. Vadationson the2000Simuations...... 94 D. Conclusionfrom BLM 2000 ...... 99

7 WaterBaance Inthe Year 2010 ...... 100

A. Intmoduction...... 100 B. DesrptionofModelfor 2010 ...... 100 C. Resltsof the2010 Simulations.. . 106 D. Specfic InvestmentOptions. . ... 111 E. 2010: Conclusions...... 114 8 MajorCondusions and Rconunendadons ...... 115

Ann=

1 Hydrology andWatr Resources ...... 119 2 SedimentSources,Transport and Deposition...... 138 3 Agriculture ...... 153 4 Hydropower ...... 210 5 bivesant OptionTables ...... 226 6 Ihe Basin-LevelModel (BLM) ...... 230

Ref e s ...... 279 TABS iN EXT

1.1 Annal Runoffand SedimentLoad in the Basin(1955-1979) . . 10

2.1 YellowRiver Nahturd Flow (1919-79) ...... 22 2.2 Prent Statusof Groundwar ResourceDevopment (198 by Regio 23

3.1 IrzigteddAeasin 1987 ...... 36 3.2 GrainiYelds, 1987 ...... 37 3.3 Production byIrrigtionby WataSources ...... 38 3.4 ReUnsto rrigption...... 40 3.5 I=ementalVue ofWater ...... 41 3.6 Retubtorrgption ...... 42 3.7 MarginaValueofWaterin rripgtion ...... 43 3.8 EstimatedIrription Water Chages ...... 45 3.9 IntercountryComparisonofPrices...... 47 HI-

3.10M&I Demands,1980-2000 ...... 49 3.11Elctical EnergyDemandGrids ...... 50 3.12Hydropower Generation onthe Yelow ktiver...... S1 3.13EnargOpportunityCostofDiversions ...... 52 3.14SummaryofYellow River Befits ...... 53

4.1 WataUse in1980...... SS 4.2 WfaterUsein1987...... *...... 56 4.3 YRCC WaterProjections to19 ...... 57 4.4 kmgatdAgriculturaActivity(l99)...... 61 4.S DedredDiversons...... 62 4.6 Shortfalin Diversions ...... 63 4.7 Projectionsfrom YRCCUtlization Study Compared with BLM Simuaidon ...... *...**.* ...... 63 4.8 Basin-wideWater Balance ...... 64 4.9 ELM199 Under AltemativeDIflow Scenarios ...... 65 5.1 FinancialCostsofPrposedlnvestments ...... 68 5.2 CapitalConstructo Investmentsin WaterResources on the Yellow River ...... 69

6.1 YRCC Projecionsto2 ...... -.. 88 6.2 Curmnt and 2000Iriated Ara ...... 89 6.3 CanalandFieldEfficiencies19 and2000 ...... 90 6.4 Resultsfrom the ModelSoluti for 2000 ...... 91 6.S Proec nsfrom the YRCCUtizat3on Study Compared to BLM SimWado ...... 92 6.6 Grwwthbetweenl90an d2000(P50Scenarios) ...... 93 6.7 Sedinent ConstraintEffects ...... 94 6.8 Economicsof Soil Conservation...... 95 6.9 Impactsof Moving Toward an Economic Optimum ...... 96 6.10Test of Imptance of Inprovements inDistributio Effiency ... 98

7.1 M&IDistribution Efficiencies,2000 ...... 101 7.2 YieldProjections:2010Simuoion .s...... 102 7.3 SedimentFlusing Constint ...... 103 7.4 Descriptonof2010Poicy Experiments ...... 104 7.5 ImprovedDistributionEfflciencia,2010...... 105 7.6 kigateddA.reain2010...... 105 7.7 2010 ModelResults: BasinWWaerBalncce ...... 107 7.8 State Coundl AllocationsandNetDiversonsbyRegion...... 108 7.9 2010ModelResults: Agriculture ...... 109 7.102010Model Results: Energy ...... 111 7.11 2010ModelResults: ValueAdded ...... 112 -ivI

FIGURESIN TMf

1.laYellow Rver Lowe RoahDikes...... 8 1.lbCrossSectionofRiver ...... 8

4.1 SchematicofYellowRiver Basin ...... 59

5.1 RealCapital Construction Invemen inWaw Reurcesby YellowRiver Provinces,1978-90 ...... 70 5.2 Re Capital ConstmuctionInvestments in Water Resourcesas PecentofAllCapitalConstructionInvestments ...... 71

No. MAPS

24544 PopulationDensities by County, 1989 24545 Existingand ProposedDams/Hydropower Projects 24546 SedimentErosion Modules 24547 W&aierResources Regions 24548 SedimentConcentration in Stream 24549 Currentand PlannedIrrigation Areas 24550 GroundwaterResources 6 ProposedDams and WarpingSites I BACKGROUNDAND CRITCAL PROBLEMS IN BASINPLANNING

A. BACKGROU

1.1 'Me YellowRiver, China's secondlongest, is 5,464 km long. ts suce is in the footls of Bayankala Mntains on the Qinga-Tibet Plateau. It passesthrough nine autonomousregioS and provinces(Qinghal, Sichuan, Gansu, Ningia, InnerMongol, Shaanxi, Shanxi,Henan, and Shandong)before emptying into the BohaiSea, supporting, on its way, an agricultul populationof over 126million people, most of whomare concentratedin the lower parts of the river basin(see Map 24544). 1.2 The YellowRiver Basin, between latitude north 32° and 42° and longitudeeast 960 and 1190,encompasses an area of 752,000km 2 of widel vaying climateand relief. The YellowRiver Basin is the cradleof Chinesecivilization; irnigation has been practicedfor thousads of years,generaing agricultural surpluses which permited the developmentof ancient societiestht wore the evy of the world. For thosesame thousads of years, the river has wreakeduntold calamity on its peoplethrough its suddenand massivefloods. It has also demandedthe toil of millionsin aempts to harnessit, usuallyin vain. 1.3 h"hYellow River, fed maindyby rain,can be divided into three distinct sections: pstream,the mid-riverand the lower river. The upper reaches,with a drainagearea of 384,000 k between the source and Hekouzhenin TnmerMongolia (the start of the Yellow River's great tur to the south), lie between1,000 and 4,500 m above sea level and are chaactrzd by mountaingorges and wide, lake-filledhigh valleysnear the source,followed by high mountains,deep vaUeys and narrowgoges whichempty into the great alluvialNingxia and ImnerMongolia plains. The vertical drop in this region is an astounding3,231 m. Moderateprocipitation, 300-600 mm per year, fallson the upperstrtch of this reach,which has limited water demand, while the lower stretch, from Lazhou north to the Mongolian steppelands,receives minimal rainfall in the faceof largeirrigation demands. The middlereach, with a drainage area of 344,000 k betweenHekouzhen and Huayuankou,lies between 1,000 and 400 m abovesea leveland encompassesthe highMongolian grasslands, the ErduosiBasin, the LoessPlateau, two of the YellowRiver's majortributary basins, the Fen River Basinin Shanxiand the Wei RiverBasin in Shaanxi,and the YellowRiver reachesthrough the Talhang Mounains. Averagerainfall is particularlylow In the northernpart of the middlereach, and large sectionsare desert 2 1.4 Thereare 76 YellowRiver tributaries wih subbasinslarger than 1,000km . Of these tributaries,there are 14 wIh annu water volume in excess of 1 billion mi or carrying anual sedimentloads greater than 100million tons (see Am 2 Table2). -2 -

1.5 Theuniqu fetur of theYellow River Is Its unparaleled sediment contet. Ith YdlowRiver has the bighestcontrtion of sedimentin the world-ninetmes that of its dose compeor. Suddenbrief but Intes stoms causeconcated inflowsinto the Yellow Rliversystm whichcary with k the easilyaodible sofl. Mostof the sedimet in the lowe eachof the er originatesfrom the world's largest loess plateau, located maiy In Shnx, Saaml, Ngia, nnr Mongcliaand Gansu provinces. The most serious floods of theYellow Rivet are thosethat occur fom stm origiating I the middlereach of the river. Thre sour am cn be Identified:th 150,000km drainagearea (18 pet of thetotal drnag are of thervr) betweoeHekouzhen and Longmen, which contributes 15 pert of thernoff .d 56 pret of thetoWal sem load;the man stemand buties betweenLongman and Snmmit, co_pising25 percen of the basindrainage area, 22 percentof the runoffand 34 pecet ofthe load;and the area below Samuenxia, 5 percent ofthe area, 11 percent of the noff, and2 pcent of thesediment. 1.6 Mostof the depositonof sedimentsoccurs over the lower reac of the river. Thelower Yellow River Is a nrally aggradingsystem. In prehistonctimes, the river swept backand fort acrs its floodplain, depositing sedimens and forming the NorthChina Plain. hibic times,repeed andlargely unsuccesu effortswere made to confinethe riverby Wove;the Yelow River has a longhistory of dikebreaches and devasting floods and major cos cnges. Withthe xceptionof the 10years, 1937-46, during the Sino-Japanese War whenaftr a delibratebreach Huayuakouthe river flowed southeast until its restoration to ts presentnorthastry coou in 1946,the river has occupied the samecanel moreor less -cotiuosy since 1843. However,aadatlon alongthe lowerreach betwee the dikos cnines at a rateof about10 cmlyearso hatthe sediment deposition and flooding problems he notboen completely solved. B. KEYRVE CONTROLISSE 1.7 AncIentexts describe plans to controlthe river and makebest use of Its rsourc. Eventoday, the objectives remain unchaaged: harness the river and maxmiz the beft fom its wae. Betweenthe firsttext on the subjectand the latestrevision of the YellowRiver Coney Commissios (YRCC)"Hamessing Plan,"1/ much has been learned,and som otablesuccesses achieved. Unfortunately, the problems have become much mor complicatedand the prescriptions ever more cosdy. As YRCCcurrntly sees it: -Thomain function of plamingis to enhanceflood control capacityat the lowerYellow River, harness and open up areas withthe problem of soilerosion, look at effectiveways to use anddisose of sediment,development of hydroelecticpower and navigationon th main stream,and make an overall amen for rationalutlization of water rmsourcesand protectwater soures andenviromnent."2I

LI YRCCOtIusdS_mmay of to Repoton YellowI River Hamessng and Dvelopment Plang," YRCC (ay 19 l,IL1. -3-

1.8 Ihe first compreslve YeilowRiver plannig studyIn the modernera was compled and adoptedIn 195S. Ti pla vialized a casade of 46 dam on the main stem of the riveras the prmay meamto contol It and barnessits hydroelectricpotential. The fis dam to be coructd at Samenxia, wasbegun in 1957. However,shordy after Impoundng begn, Sameuia rapidlyfilled with sediment,thrcatening to inundatethe denselypopultd Gua _In Plin In Shaam upstream.Planners had seriouslyoverestmed the pace at which soil andwate nservai workwould reduce sediment transport to the lowerreaches. Within hre or four yea, the reseoir wasvirtualy useless as a floodcontrol device. In 1965,major modificationwee completed,including new sedimentsluicing facilities to scour, witbinthe rvoit, a cnel ladng to the dam. lTis experiencein sedimentmanagement, proven succesl In more than 20 yes of operation,has benefittedthe design and operationof numerousother hydrauic structures. 1.9 Ibe Sanmenxiaexperience drove home a very clear message: Flood control couldnot suceed wftout sedimentcontrol. Sedimentcontrol could only be ensuredby a joint programof sol and war conservationin the critical sedimentsource areas, codiuous stgheig of dikes,rang dikes,training and warpingA/ on the lowerreaches of the river, and manging sedimenti strategicallylocated reservoirs. 1.10 A rvised 1964plan calledfor significantlyfewer large projects:29 reservoirs and hydropowerworks on the mainstem. Eightof these29 worksare in operation,with a total insaed powergenat capacityof 3,620MW and total live storageof 29.9 billionni.&I on tw trbutary saum, 141large- and medium-scalereservoirs have been constructed.On the lowerYellow River, th 1,396-km-longmain embankment dikes on both bankshave been raied 1 meterand stren e on three separateoccasions; two majorflood detentionareas, at Bdeijdi and Dongplnghu,have been completed;and over 1,000 km of warping,over 30 mIllionmi of river trainingworks, over 100 km of channeltraining works, and over 70 diversionofftakes and m ous irgation and watersupply projects have been constructed. 1.11 he socWialand environmentalbenefits from these developmentshave been substt. Withthe deveopmentof high-liftirigation projects in centralGansu and southern NiWpiaprovnces, arid wastelands have becomeproductive tree-lined farmlands with crop yields in excessof 3 tons/ha (rha) or irrigatedgrasslands.5/ Increasingly,chronic rural consuptve war deficitsin these remoteareas have been largelyeliminated. Tremendous atnion has ao been paid to the ameliorationof waterloggedand salinizedlands along the rv. In the well-establishedHetao Irrigation areas alongthe GreatBend of the YellowRtiver In ler Mongolia,massive drainage channels and siphonsare currentlyunder constmction to ai Wepiag net to ib cotion of lag dstaion basinsadjacent to the dike&sWhen filled with sedm, the boes areused as agricultrallad ad providelaterl strengtlhto the dike.

#/ Longyangia,Liax* Qinglonpua,and Sanmeiuia headworks were completed and fourhydropower saticou wen builtat Yangouia0,Dapliza, Tqio and Saosgong. . PaForexaple, Tcm Couty I th ubaiHigh-Uft Irrigation Project hau developed ingated area from fomr deet lnds. Gain oupu has ached uely 3.5 Tlhaand irrigatedgtrass area nearly 7,000 ha. Thereae vavre 300tes per capita Fanuper capita inmes inthe irigated areas of TonglinCounty aveag Y 340. Foredy, percapita incomes hovered unmdY 50 tJig Ping,1991, ruigataioni_m in thoXiolonl DamProet Apm (revisedYJ. .4 -

combat the cosequences of long-tam Imnodeao rgation. In some low-lying middle and lower reach plain aa adacent to the river and prone to waterloggingand salinaon, paddy has been Introducedand rapidlyadopted. In other similarareas, a combinationof pump drnage and wping has been usedto controlwaterlogging and salinity. At present,on the lowerreaches, over 70 percentof the saline-pronelands and 77 percentof the landsprone to waerloggg are under preliminaycontrol. Over a third of a millionhectares on the lower reachbavo been reclaimed by warping,of which30 percentis reservedfor paddy. 1.12 nhowidepread dissmnation of Irigatedagricultue throughout the basinin the past 40 yeas has enabledfarmers to adopthigh-input farming technologies that allowthem to use theirland more intenively and th y incae theirincome levels. Beforethe introduction of irrigatkon,dught andwateroggg werecommon, and salinity-resistantvarieties of sorghum and milletoccupied a large shareof cultivatedarea on the YellowRiver. Yieldsof theselocal varietieswere low-around 1.1 Tiha for winterwheat and 1.2 T/ha for cotton.fi/After water supplieswere assured,higher yielding ctdtivars, cropped far more hnensively,with attendant demandsfor chemicalfertlizers aus. grochemicals,began to makea significantimpact on farm productionand hicomes. Yields in excessof 5 TIhafor irrigatedwheat and maize, and 1.8T/ha for irrigatedcotton are not uncommonnow.

1.13 Althoughgrowth has beensignificant throughout the basin, a numberof critical problemsremain: (a) Floodcontrol on the lowerreaches can only be maintainedat presentrelatively low protectionstandards of a recurrencelevel of one floodin 60 yearsthrough Incrasinglycostly and massivework programs. In addition,there are at present about1.4 millionpeople living between the dikesin 2,000villages. Thepeople are subjectedto constantflooding due to smallfloods occurrmng once every two year.

sb) Flood prevertion difficultiesare exacerbatedby continuingdeposition of sedimenton the lowerreaces (morethan 10 metersin places)-a phenomenon that may not be amenle to significant eductioneven in the longterm, and which,in any event, i inexticablylinked to the complexsocioeconomic and physicalproblems underlying soil and waterconservation and poverty alleviation in one of China'smost inaccessible regions, the LoessPlateau. (c) With the large increase in agriculural, municipal and industrialwater consumption,flows to the seahave declined from an averageannual outflow of 49 billionmW during the 1950sand 1960sto lessthan 32 billionm? since the late 1970s. From 1972to 1983,during the dry monthsof May and June, when agriculturademamds are high, the river ran dry 131days.l/ Reducedflows to the sea damagefish hatcheriesat the river mouth, oilfieldsand water

/ Te areestmae of conditionsat th endof thel950s prior to th adventof widespreadirrigation, fJiang Ping,1991, lnigationiss-. -I

2V 1 1981,X givr wasdry for 32 day InhXdu year1987, the river evenran d forlS daysin the floodmemon while 4.9 biln mOflowed to th sea in dhedry seaso betwee 1986187. - 5-

transport,and mayultimately threaten water suppliesneeded to flush sediment, withdevatating consequences. (d) Due to pricing,fnacial, a: d ittidonal factors,basin development has bee quiteuneven, and as a result,regional and functionalwater use conflictshave becomeincreasingly frequent and contiou. (e) Althoughthe scope of irrigatedagrlcelture in the basin Is unprecedented,the benefitsof this developmentare not fiWlyrealized; water waste i an majorIssue In the upperreach areas; krigadon systems main unfimisbedand someareas have eperienced secondarysalinzation and alkalizatlon problems,such as siltng of canalsand exploitationof groundwater. (t) Water qualityin the basin has deterioratednoticeably around Lanzhou and Yining(upper reach) and round the middlereach below Hekouzen as a result of untreate(industrial plant and mins discharge. However,water qualityis fairlygood in mostof the basin Protectionfrom Floods 1.14 Historically,the YellowRiver has breachedits dikeson manyoccasions and widespreaddevastation has followed. In the past 150years, three floods have breached the main dikes. In the verylarge 1843flood, the maindike broke near Kalfeng and the river established a new coursealong Its presentroute. Its a peak dischargewas estimatedat 33,000m/sec at Huayuakou,a flowwith an estimatedfrequency of occurrenceof 1 in 1,000years. In the 1933 flood,the dikeswere breached In 54 locations,inundating the homesand fieldsof 3.6 million peopleover an area of 11,000kin and kiling 18,000people. Two yearslater, a smallerflood broke the dikesin Shandong,flooding out 3.4 millionpeople over an area of 12,000kmin. In 1938in a vain aempt to halt the advanceof Japaneselnvader, Guop t s deliberately blewthe dikesat Huayuankou,flooding 10 millionpeople, ulfimately killing through drowning, aposure or savation nearly 1 millionpeople. The largestflood of this cnury occurredin 1958 when the peak flow at Huayuankouwas 22,000 m?/sec,a 1-in-6year peak flow. Althoughthe maindikes held, there wasserious flooding on the floodplainsbetween the main dikes. Shortlythereafter, flood dettion basinswere established at Deijindiand Dongpinghu. 1.15 PotentialFlood Damage. The greatestpotntial damagefrom a floodwould occurin the eventof overtoppingor breachingof the maindikes. Thesedikes now protect about 120,000kn2, with a populationgreater than 100million. Fatalityrates could be as high as 1-3percent with a major flood (the lower rate reflectsa much improvedcommunication system).1I/Conservative damage estimates were made for a floodinundating 15,000 km 2 (two thirdsof whichwould be culdvated)and affecting11 millionpeople. 1.16 Floodsin the YellowRiver Basin are causedby highintensity storms in the July to Octoberperiod. Floodsoriginating above Lanhou in the upper reach, whichare of long

Al At prent, th maindike will be overtpped by a floodexcoding a flowof 30,000 m%sat Huayuankou,a reurrenc frequey of Iin 1,000years. WithXiaolangdi, hiis probability would drop to ear Wo. Hiover, betwe Huayuakouand th maininlet gates to Beijindi isa section of mainMdie atis vunele to breachngfom pipingat Sme reum yeargeater thadn 1 in60. -6 - duan wlithlow andflat peaks,usually form the baseflow fot floodsoriginating In the middle reaches. Betwee Hekouzen and Huayuankouthere are three mjor floodproducidng are. Tbe first two of these ares, catchmentareas between Hekouzhen and Longmenand between Longmenand Sanmenxia,feature floods that are of shortduration with sharp high peaks. Based on historica!records, approximately half of the larger floodsoriginate in these areas. Floods arisingin these aras have very high sedimentloads and thereforemust be passedthrough downstreamresvoirs until the safe flood-flowcapacity at Huayuankou(22,000 m/sec) is reatened. Consequently,the floodplainbetween the maindikes on the lowerreach will receive no increasein flood protectionfrom these floodsand the Dongpinghudetention basin will continueto be used to protectthe dikesat or belowAishan. 1.17 Floods arising In the third area, the watershedbetween Sanmenxiaand Huayuankou,permit only very limited advance warning. However, historical evidence indicates thatwhen a floodevent originates in thisregion the probabilityof simultaneousflood flows from upstreamis negligible.Also, sediment flows in thesefloods are lowrelative to upstr'.amfloods andthe expectedsediment load in the mainstem of the river willalso be relativelylow. 1.18 FloodProtection Measures. Theexisting flood protection system for the lower YellowRiver includes the multireservoirSanmenxia-Luhun-Guxian regulating system, the dikes fromHuaywakou to the delta, and the majorflood detention basins at Beijindi,Dongpinghu, Nanzhanand Belzhan. This system can be operatedto protectthe maindikes at and downstream of the Beijindidetention basin under flood flows with a returnperiod of 1-in-60years.

1.19 Themain dikes along the lowerreach extend from Menjing for 720 km on both banksto the sea. Thesedikes have been raised a numberof timesin the past 150years. There havebeen three separate decade-long campaigns since 1950, and the dikesare now8-10 m high in most places, with a maximumheight of 13 m. If the combinationof dikes and storage reservoirsis not able to controlflooding, excess flows will be divertedinto deten'tionbasins. These basins were developedas a low-costsolution to flood control some 30 years ago. However,over the past decadesthere bas beensubstantial economic growth in detentionbasin areasand theiruse for floodcontrol is likelyto becomeprohibitively expernsive as flooddamage resultingfrom their use increasesover time. With floods beyondthe 1-in-6year flood protectionstandard, densely populated, highly productive and strategicdownstream detention basinswiU be inundated,with great economicloss. Moreover,there Isno sounddefense against exceptionalflooding threatening the 15,000km 2 primaryprotectud area behind the embankment dikes. 1.20 The threat posedby downstreamflooding is mademore acute by continued massivesilt depositionalong the floodplainbetween the mainembankment dikes along the lower reaches. Whilesoil and waterconservation efforts in the sedimentsource areas eventally may reducesomewhat sediment delivery to thelower reach, increased municipal and industrial(M&l) and irrigationuse of upstreamwater and the impoundingof majorupstream reservoirs will reducethe water availablefor sedimentflushing. Continuedraising and strengtheningof the emnbankmentdikes In responseto sedimentdeposition may temporarily avert disastrous flooding but it also increasesthe riskcsof and the damagefrom catastophic flooding. 1.21 FloodControl Plans. In the shortterm,flood control on the lnwerreaches can onlybe achievedthrough a coordinatedwork programthat includesraising and strenging dikes,river training,large-scale warping, renovation of floodplainsand flooddetention basins, -7 -

Improvementof uary,real-time flood f torecasing,and vmoed co c andtesearch. Unfortuntely, thls work wUIonly stabilizeflood ontrol at curre leves. It wilnn gificanty improveflood prvention. 1.22 Long-term plans to conrlol flooding along the Yellow River Include: (as constructionof a seriesof reservoirsalong the middlereach that can trap mostof the coe sedimentnow being delivered to the lowerreach and that canpreseve indefinitelysome long- term storagefor floodcontrol and sedimentregulation; (b) continuedstrengthening and rang of the levees;(c) continuingconservation measures on the Loon Plateauto reduceerosion and sdimet deliveryto the middleand lower reachesof the YeRowRiver; and (t) large-cace desiltingbasins (warping)to trap addidonalcoarse sedimentsafter the reservoirsreach equilibrium that all the sedimensentering thr'x are flushedthrough with excess flows during floodseason. M _agagSedimet 1.23 From 1919to 1960,the averageannual sediment load passing Huayuankou was 1.60 biUliontons, for an averageannual flow of 47.5 biUlionin. Twety percet of this sedmen, primarly consistingof coarsesediments with paricle sizelarger than 0.05 mm, was depositedon the river bed downstreamof Huayuarkwu.Ihe LowerReach (see Figure 1.la) is dikedfom Huayuankouall the way to the BohaiSea. he LowerReach can be dividedinto three sction beforethe river mouth: wanderingsection; transition section; and a meadering section. This entiresecdon of the river is raisedabove the surroundingground level by 3 to 10 m (see Figure 1.lb). Due to silt trappingat Sanmenuiaand numerousother conervation measures,this was reducedto 1.21billin tons aaly for the years 1960485,for an annual average unoffof 44.31 billionm?, and only 11 percentwas depositel downstream. There Is substa interannualand seasonal variation In YellowRiver sllt loads. Elevenfloods between July 1950and June 1983conibutd 2 percentof the mnoff, 14 percentof the sedimentload and54 percentof the total33-year sediment deposition along the lowerreaches; two 1977floods aloneconuted 15 percentof the total33-year sediment deposition. 1.24 Thenature of the stormswhich induce high sediment content, their origin, their tming, their peaks,the size of suspendedpartidles, the patternsof sedimentdeposition, etc., have suggestedsuccessful stegies for improvedsediment management. These include: concenarig consevadonmeas In regionsprodcing high sedimentloads, usingpopular and effectivesmall structures and checkdanms on erodiblegullies to createnew fertile cropland, usig reservoiroperton policiesto reduceinputs of coarsesedime to the lower reachand to shapefloods so as to maximizecoarse sediment port trough the lowerreach, etc. 1.25 Nonetheless,even if by susined andlongterm efforts the YellowRiver silt load canbe stabilizedat presentlevels, or evensomewhat reduced, the sedimet contentof the river willstill be substantial,raising the 'suspended'lower reach river bedby 8-10cm annualy,and exacerbatig flood risks in the lower reach. Ultimately,unless Sdiment depositiot in the channelcan be decreasedsubstantily by soil conservationmeasures in the long term (100 yeas), the presentchannel will have to be abandoned.

1.26 YellowRiver planners have thus concluded that the cruci problemin harnessing the river is the effectivemangement of sediment. Dikesalone are not a long-termsolution. Sedimentcontrol has been primarily addressed through soil and waterconservation programs and A: YEULOWRIVER LOWER REACH DYKES

Reach of the

wandern Unsto as reach reach r of th

Meng Uwou ri }: wnN§~~~~~ ike sea

iCaif@flf anqb&tou

B: CROSSSECTION OF RIVERSECTION AT SUNKOU

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 0o 1s 20 25 LEk - 9-

raisingdikes, althoughinadvert trappingof sedimentIn Sanmeuxiahas suggestedsignificant fAturepossibilities for reducingsediment. Soil and waterconservation measures on the Loe Plateauwould never completelyreduce sedimenttransport to the river. However, the modificationsmade to Sanmemiabegining in 196Ssuggested the intriguingpossibility that In the face of unparlleled concentradonsof river sediment,it mightbe faslble under cain conditonsto constructlong-term rrvoir storagewith minimalinundation losses. Sediment controlwould need to be handledby ajoint programof soiland waterconseration in the critical sedimentsource aras, contin strengtheningand rasing of dikes,river traig andwarping on the lower reachesof the river, and sedimentmanagement in a few large and straegically locatedflood control reservoirs. 1.27 SedlmentSource Area. he priy sedimentsource area of the YellowRiver are thoseparts of the LoessPiateau in the middlereach of the river systembetween Hekouzhen In Inner Mongoliasad SanmenxiaReservoir In Henan. Of the plateau's total area of 582,000kn', 42,000kin2 are in a closedbasin BerduosiBasin) that does not contributewater or sedimentto the YellowRiver. Slightlyeroded areas of about73,000 kn' conrute no more than 1 percentof totalYellow River sediment; 317,000 kin' are locallyeroded (mostly in areas upstem of Hekouzhen),accounting for 9 percentof the silt dischargeto the YellowRiver; and about 150,000kin' are seriouslyeroded land belowHekouzhen that contributes90 percentof totalYellow River sediments(see Map 24546). 1.28 The Loess Plateauhas long been one of China's principalpoverty-ricken regionsand soil and water conservationefforts are, inexricably linked to programsto alleviate poverty. Despitefour decadesof mass soil and water conservationcampaigns, per capita Icommeshave remainedunstable and far below nationalaverages. Accordingto Ministryof Agriculture(MOA) statistcs, of the 138counties In the YellowRiver Basin where average yields arebelow1.S T/ba, 128are locatedontheLoessPlateau and In 1983alonethere was a net rain uanser to the regionof 1.225million tons.2/ The coninuing povertyof this largestand longestheld Commuistrevolutionary base is particularlytroubling to nationalleaders. Unless soil and water conservationprograms are tied to short-termfarm benefits, they are not likelyto be successful. 1.29 SedimentDelvery. Theamual sedimentload in the mostrece measurements i 198089 from the entire basin is estimatedto be 1.35 billiontons per yearmeasureat Sanmenxia(see Anne); however,0.9 billiontons of this total are esimatedto comefrom a 150,000hm semiaridarea in the Loess Plateau. Table 1.1 showsthe flow of sediment measuredin the basin between1955-79 and these figuresare slightiyhigher at Sanmenxia (1.46billion tons). Theseare the best measureddata available today. Only 10.4percent of the sedimentscomes from the upperreach; 89.6 percen of the sedimentIs fromthe middlereach. in the lowerreacb, 26 percentof the sedimentdrops off. Mostof the coarsesediment, which represe over50 percaetof the totaldeposits in the lowerreaches of the YellowRiver, comes fromthe rollinghills and gulliedloess area southof Hekouzhenand northof Longmen,where high-intensityranfl and closeproximity to the river andits tributales ensureextemely high sedimentdelivery ratios.

2/ YRcc 1988,Revised uma of thereport an Yellow River hnesn anddevelopnt planing. - 10-

Table 1.1: ANNUALRUNOFF AND SEDDMEN LOD INTie BAIN (1955-1979

Observed Suspended Annual Drainage flow sedtient sedi- station Reach Area (kbillon m) (bln ton units) ment ('000) Annual Flood Annual Flood (2) season season

Guide Upper 133.7 21.2 12.8 0.024 0.19 1.6 Lanzhou Upper 222.6 32.2 18.8 0.095 0.092 6.5 Qingtongxia Upper 275.0 27.4 16.1 0.153 0.125 10.5 HelouzenlA Upper 386.0 24.6 14.4 0.151 0.115 10.4 Longmen Middle 497.0 31.1 18.0 1.040 0.938 71.2 Tongguan k Middle 682.1 41.1 27.8 1.460 1.250 100.0 SaneAnui Middle 688.4 41.1 23.4 1.420 1.200 97.2 Gaccun Lover 734.1 43.6 25.5 1.210 0.964 82.8 Lijln Lower 751.9 41.7 25.2 1.080 0.898 74.0

La Upstrm of Loess, Plateau.

ib Downstreamof LoessPlateau. Source: mosionand Trspraon of Sedimentin the YellowRiver BasinW Long Yuqian and Qin Nig,,Imen nalJownal of SedbnmResearch, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1986.

1.30 About85 percentof the sedimentload can be attributedto nfequent high- itensity rain s fromJuly to October.The flood peaks are sharpand attenuat quicldy,and sedimentin the flow aboveSamenxia Reservoiris hyperconcerated exceedig 400 IkW duringthis peod. Rainll is unevenlydistibutedthroughout the area, exhibitingconsiderable seasonaland anmnulvadation. 1.31 WatershedManagement and Soil Conservation.Watershed management and soil consevaion workat prese is concentruedin the mostseriously eroded zones of the Loess Plateau. These efforts in watershedmanagement and soil conservationgeneraly involve preparion of subwatwshedplans for soil and water conservation.The plans treatthe entire catchmentand nmally involvestructu measues such as largerwater and sedimentstorage reservoirson the main stem Isaled in serieswith smallerand medium-sizeddetention dams on the trbutary streams. Numes checkdams are constructedupstream from the smalldams. Thiscombhation proides 90 to 95 percentof the reductionin sedimentdelivered to the Yellow Riverfom th coevation treatmet Theother S to 10 percentreduction is the result of Wrrac, contourfaming, font planig and grsdand development10/ 1.32 Pdor to 1985,about 100,000km were controlledthrough these consvaton systems. Much of is treated area was in the criical sedimentsource area and included jW YRCCand CYJV, 1991, TheXaolngp Phjea,Volume L - 11 -

2.27 millionha protectedby teraces, 270,000ha protectedby checkdams, 1.33 millionha of protectedirrigated land, 4.93 millionha r,f forestland and 1.2 millionha of grassland. Lar and medium-sizedreservoirs provided 6.4 billionms of storagecapacity. Duringthe 30 years preceding1990, 120,000 kmi of sedimentdelivery area wereprotected; thus 4,000kmlIyear is the long-termaverage expansion for the controlarea. Fromthe availabledata, erosionhas been reducedby 500 million tons per year but sedimentinflow into the river is reducedby 250 milliontons/year since the sedimentdelivery ratio intothe river Is only50 percentof the erosionamount. Projectionsby soil conservationspecialists familiar with the area indicatethat sedimentstorage is expectedto averageabout 350 milliontons per yearby the year2000 and about 480 milliontons per year by the year 2030 unless a massivenew effort Is startedto acceleratethe amountprotected area each year. 1.33 ErosionControl Plans. TheWorld Bank is considering a requestfor a potential Y 1.6 billionproject in this area to controleight smallerW.butaries situated within the critical sedimentsource area.II The total catchmentarea will be about 39,000 km, with about 18,000km 2 expectedto fall withinthe projectarea. Higblyerosive lands amountto about 15,600km 2 wi:hinthis area; the erosionrate is 5,000to 20,000tonslkmYyr. The population in the projectarea is 1.28 million,nearly 90 percentof themliving in ruralareas, withaverage per capitaincomes a lowY 150-200per year. At present,only about 20 percentof the land is protectedwith soil and water conservationpractices and 14 percentof it is protectedby vegetativecover, but plans are being preparedthat will raise these levelsto 70 percentand 52 percentrespectively over eight years. Theproposed project would eventualy directly reduce sedimentinto the YellowRiver by about38 milion tons/year. 1.34 SedimentReduction Plans. Chapter5 discussesthe mainprojects envisioned andtheir expected deposition reduction periods. Thesequence for constructionof theseprojects Is importantbecause large-scale warping is not practicalunless the warpedarea is protectedby a reservoirwith a sufficienthead and controlled discharges to regulatesediment. The Xiaolangdi Dam shouldbe constructedfirst becuse it is the futhest downstreamsite and can provide immediaterelief from floodingand sedimentdeposition. Five warping areas have been identified-Longmen-Tonggan,Wenmengtan, Yuanyang-Fengqiu, Dongning and Taiqian(see Map 6). Thesefive warpingareas are expectedto divert24.4 billiontons of silt fromthe river intoareas alongside the riveror outsidethe dikes. Thesefive warping areas will be constructed overdifferent periods. The warpingarea at Wenmangwould be designed,tested and put into operationsimultaneously with the constructionof the XiaolangdiDam. Finally,after Qikouand Longmenare constructed,the warpingarea between Longmen and Tonggua and othersshould be developed. The three reservoirswill reduce sedimentto the lower reach an estmated 50 yeansand the warpingbasins another 60 years. Whilethese theoretical efficiencies probably cannotbe met, withthis sort of stageddevelopment, and expandedconservation efforts in the LoessPlteau, it shouldbe possibleto keepthe river in its presentcourse for 110years. 1.35 SiltFsing. In additionto contiumingsoil conservationand sediment-trapping effortsin the LoessPlatau, sedimentcontrol efforts have involved dcannel and estuaryflushing with 20-24billion me of water annually. The flushingflows may eventuallybe reducedto 10-13billion en aftersediment flow is reducedfrom the presentlevels of 1.35billion tonslyear l Mmeeight small catchm ars beingcondered are Malian, Yanbe, Jialuhe, Xisu, Zhuiachin,Wefeoghe, Bantaichua, snd Hashlach_ Rivers. - 12 -

to 0.8 billiontons/year. Aftera timesediment flushing will require controlled artificial floods for whichnev largereservoirs will be neceary.

C. WAT1RMANAGEM CONWCTS

1.36 EqultyConsiderations. With a populationfar in excessof the carryingcapacity of the land, the remote,heavily eroded Loess Plateau and the cold,high, andarid upper reaches of the YellowRiver have long been among China's principal poverty-stricken regions. Theyare alsothe leastefficient water users. Deliveryand fieldlosses are extremelyhigh, and manyareas mustbe servedby energy-intensivepumping schemes. With increasing frequency, Yellow River water will be in short supply, and the water used in the regionswill have an ever higher opportunitycost downstream.Sooner rather than later, YellowRiver plannerswill have to squarelyface equity vs. efficiencyissues. It must,however, be notedthat over the last40 years there has been significantmigration out of the basinfrom Gansuand Ningxiaprovinces to the statefarms in Ximjiangand to irrlgatedareas suchas the HexiCorridor. 1.37 EmergingWater Shortagesand Competitionfor Water. At present,aggregate water supplyand demandin the basinroughly balance only because water ultimately allocated for exteabasintransfers to Hebeiand coal washingin Shanxiand Inner MongoliaIs currendy availableto other end-users.However, barring significant improvemenXt in water conservation in irrigationand in municipaland industrW water supply, the YRCChas estimatedthat demand for YelowRiver surace waterwil exceedsupply by more hn billionmy by 2000,a deficit equalto fuUy15 percentof long-termavailable runoff, and the gap willgrow ever wider beyond that horizon. 1.38 Basedon the etimated long-termaverage annual basin-wide natWal runoff of 58 bfllionm3 and the 20-24bilion mn'per yearneeded to flushsediment from the lowerreaches, in 1987the StateCouncil agreed on provincialYelow River alocationstotaling 37 billionin for the basin. Thisincludes 4.08 bilion mJin proposedextrabasin M&I diversions in the year 2000,2 billionm& for Hebeiand Tianjin,1.58 billion m3 for the Shanxi-InnerMongolia energy base, and 0.5 billionm' for QingdaoCity on the Shandongcoast.l2/ 1.39 Exploitablegroundwater resources in the YellowRiver Basin are variously estimated at about 19 billion m'. Until quite recently, YRCC maintaied that the 88-91million mu irrigatedarea in the basinrequired diversion of between27 and29 billionin of surfacewater and extractionof about6.3 billionm' of groundwater. 'Excess- water-the differencebetween current needs as estimatedin the mid-1980sand the allocationtarget of 37 billion in-could be safelyallocated for Increasesin municipaland industial diversions, includingproposed extrabasin transfers. The requirementsfor expandedirrigation would be accommodatedby more efficient use of irrigation water so that the 108million mu (7.2 millionha) of irrigatedarea expectedin 2000would require no morethan 29 billionnil of water. 1.40 However,in 1987,before any of the proposed4 billionm3 extrabasin diversions were complete,surace water diversiontotaled 38.5 billion ', and groundwaterwithdrawal reached14.1 billion Wn. This water servedan irrigatedarea of between89 and 91 millionmu

1V Sta CounciflDocwmt (1988)and YRCC, Prpwoy Repoi on die&dy of Invema Planon die Yellow River Basn (199). - 13 -

(5.9-6.1million ha) and a basin-wideM&! demand of 6.3 billionW. If it i assumed,against expectations,that water use will becomemore efficientand that groundwster aion will remainstable at cut levels, then the proposedincra and demandfom Irrigationand seculargrowth in populationand industrywill exceed the long-termaverage available runoff by over 16 billionen by 2000. 1.41 Ener. Hydropowerplants, both run-of-river and storagereservoir, have an instlled capacityof 3,660 MW and an averageannual energy capability of 17,750 GWh. However,this is only7.6 percentof the demandfrom the threemajor grids supplied,a demand whichis growingby 7.0 to 10.0percent per year. Energyfrom hydrocosts far less ta the alternativesof coal and gas; thus another14,260 MW of capacityare scheduledto be installed in YellowRiver facies by 2010. 1.42 Althoughhydro does not constitutea consumptiveuse of YellowRiver water, it doesgenerate severe conflicts in systemsmanagement. Run-of-river plant requirea reladvely uniformbase flow, hence regulation through storage in largerupstream facilities is requiredfr their optimaluse becausethe intrayearpattes of runoffand irrigationdemands are far frum uniform.Furthermore, maximum energy output from storage reservoirs requiresfidl reservoirs and constantreleases. This is in direct conflictwith (i) irrigationreleases, which requie reservoirsto be emptiedduring the dry spring months; (ii) with sedimentcontrol, which necessitatesflushing the river withheavily silt-laden storms; (iii) withice-run control, which requirestie releasesof large flowsprior to freezingto expandthe cross-sectional area of the hanneland reducedflows after icing and prior to thawingto preventice jams from forming, whilenavigation and watersupply also requireconstant releases. 1.43 Flood Control Issues. Becauseof intensedevelopment in the main detnion basins-Beijindi and Dongplnhu-it is now feltthat use of thesebasins would result in near catstrophic economiclosses. There are at presentno floodstorage faidlities in the middle reach, and the reconstructedSanmenia has very limited flood storage capacit (about 1.5 billionm). Reasonableprotection of the lowerreach areas must await the oonsructionof the waolangdiDam. Likewise,potection of the lowermiddle rcach must await the constuction of the Qlkouanlwor Lmgmen dams. 1.44 However,the use of reservoirsfor floodcontrol engenders losses in irrigation suppliesas well as hydropoweroutp Watersupply to irrigationis mostcritical in the spring and early summermonths. Reservoirsmust be kept low in early summerin order to receive incomingfloods and theycan only storewater after the floodseason. Hencea goodportion of the floodseason water, which is about60 percet of the anual flows,Is generallynot utilized. Floodsof an entirelydifferen orgin than itense summerrains are causedby Icejams both near the estuary(where the rivertuns north)and in the great northe rlver bend nearHewouzben on the middlereaches. To minimizedamage, flows must be carefullyregulated from November to March. Toolittle flowwil inducea hardfreez whiletoo much may result in icejams. This factorreduces water availablefor irrigationdurig early sprig for all areas in the mide and lowerreaches. A proposedresrvoir at Daliushu,approxhmately midway between Liujiaxia and Hekouzuen,will improveIce rUnconol on thisriver section,permit full use of the upm six-plantLonapi-DaxDa hydropowersystem currentiy constrained by ice-runconol, and reeua upstreampower system discharges for downstreamIrrigation, rnm-of-river and waer supply needs. 'he proposedreseroirs at Longmenand Qilwu, betweenHekouzhen and - 14-

Samenia, wil alleviatemiddle reach Irrigationand MEd shorges; they wil o contain midle reah floodsand controlsediment. 1.4S Jnterreglonaland ProvincdalConflicts. YellowRiver waterneeds by season and by reachoften leadto conflicts.Ice-rmn control on the GreatBed of Xt YellowRiver in Ine Mongolianot onlyconstrains upstream power genratdon in Liujixia ReservoirduriAg the thwing season(pedaps by as muchas 200 MW of continous power),but s Irrigatiloand water supply in southernGansu and Ningxla,and Irgaton and navigationneeds below Hekouzhen.Sediment control requires tradeoffs between middle reach sediment delivery and downstreampower generation,reservoir reguation, ice-run and fioodcontrol, water supply, irrigation,navigation and estuay control. Withinthe middlereaches, there ae sgnificat problemsin balancingpower generation, sediment regulation, water supply,flood and ice-run conrAl,navigatin and irrigation.On the lowerreaches, flood and sedimt controloperations also createconflicts with other uses. Finally,regional priorities, for example,costly high-lift irrigationor for coal washingneeds on the upper and middlereaches may not agm with aggregatebasin-wide water supply priorities. 1.46 In the short term, contradictionsbetween upstream power geneaion and Irigation supply,and downsm watersupply and navigatin and ice-runcontrol on the Imer Mogolia Plain will continue.Short-term responses to conflictsbetween sediment cor and downstreamneeds include the aeady-mentionedsoil and water conserationprgrams in the Les Plateau,improvements to lift irrigationschemes on bothbanks of the mainstem between Yumenobuand Tonuan, improvementsto rivertrainig wors on the Longmento To _gua river section,and investments in navigationworks on the Fugu-Yumenbouriver sectio In the mediumtO long term, onlywith construction of rereguat fcilities at Dalushu canflood and ice-runcontrol, drought management, and watersupply be esured in the mde reaches;only wih the completionof the QilkouReservoir can sedimentdelivery to the middlerach be reduced,allowing relatively sediment-free water to be suppliedto M&Iuse in Talyua; and only the completionof the XlaolangdiDam will permit c Improveme in lowerreach flood and sedimentcontrol without sacrifice of otherdownstream demand.

1.47 The Plnning Problem. Thesecompeting and oftenconlicting demands pose complexplanning and managementproblems. Withoutmassive addiional investments in the YellowRiver system, future consumptive demands from agriculture and M&Isimply canmot be metwith reasonable reliability. If sedimentand flood control efforts are to predominate,as local plas believethey should, economic losses in agriculture,urban water supply, and industrial energyoutput witl loom ever larger. It is extremelydifficult to minimizethese losses,while managingthe conflictsinduced by competitionfor scarceYellow River resources. 1.48 Ihe policiesbeing consideredto alleviatethe likelybai-wide water deficits Icude more efficientwater use in Irrigationand industry,restrictions on Iriga on divrsi In dry yeas, reregption of "excess*seasonal flows in a numberof mjor main-stemfat, ad ratona fnctional and regionalwater allocation.

1.49 Inextricablylinked to each of the above-mentionedpolicies are apprpria reoms in prichigwater resources,finaing projectsand in the uto. For eample, witout aopriate reformsIn waterpricing, little Improvemeatcan be expectedin water use efficency, or rationalwater allocation,or a reasonablevauation of reregutn faiities. Simlrly, in the absenceof reformsIn watersector financing, there will contfue to be undue - 1S-

emp n prmay controlstrcture, to the neglectof the no less craical auxiiary and on- farm work and opion and maintenace costs, as well as consion about financi responsibilityand equity implications. Finally, without significantinsituonal reform, comprehensiveYellow River planig and developmencannot proceed. At present, the yMy of E sergy(MOIE) nd the Mist of Water Resources(MWR), YRCC, and provincl, preectur and couty level water resourceagencies oper wit considerale autonomy.Moreover, attempts by cental parentagencies to rationalizelower level idtves canbe easilysidestepped by directprovincial appeals to the Sae Council. As a consequence, there isa signallack of coherencein bothphysical and financialwater resourmc management systems,which impedesefficient use of resourcesand comprehensivebasin planningand developmeat

1.50 However,these issuesare also facedin most developedcountries such as the UnitedStates. Despitethe increasingconflicts over use of water,the federal-levelwater policy in the Unted Statesis agmentedand haphazard at best. Atpresentin the UnitedStates, thore are29 commite, departments,etc., that are responsiblefor waterpolicy and fundig water projects. Despitethe maze of bureaucracy,there is no coherentpolicy diecting the use, conservationand Implementationof waterprojects in the UnitedStates. However,in the case of Chinaand paticuarly the YellowRiver Basin, the lack of coherentphysical and financial wawterource managementsystems can have catophic consequencesin termsof faminesor floodswhich could wip out millionsof peopleand causea massivedisruption of the economy. D. TiB INsTM ONALCONTE

1.51 I4gslation. Withthe reformsof the past decade,though enal planning condnuesto be the dominantinfluence in the most criticalsectors of Chna's economy,the economyas a wholeis less contolled;substantial parts have been decentralized and converted to a quasi-maret system. Law is recognizedas an importan instrm for regulatg the decentralizedsectors, and planmershave acceptedlaw as necessaryto achievethe efficiencies promisedby decentralizationand to reguate third party activitiesand governmentacdon, especiallyin conservingnatural resources. The 1982Consiution establishesstto ownehip of water resources,that is, they are ownedby the wholepeople.fl It also providesfor Protectionof vikonmen qtaity.

1.52 In April 1988,a new WaterLaw waspromulgated, establishing principles for waterresource development; affirming the existingInstutional setting for waterresources; and seng guidelines and confirmng technicalstandards for the survey, design, construc , operatoand m of the waterresource sector. The law also reifc the principles ad _ of watefe* ammens, includin a new wa resourcefee to be ssod in areas f competingprivate and publiciterests, and dermines legaljuri ction, waterrigh, methodsfor conflictatbitration and penaltiesfor violators.M Althoughin practe thi law il TheConsii is te highe law of the land, followedby ses whichinclude basic laws d specif lws Belowstatute. an reg ul , whichare geney more tc , seific, and aiftatve tha statt; tm t are mods and standardsthatfy detd appleatins. WI FollowingpwmOsioof the Water LAw, a um*erof tw rgui Werepassed,includig ltio an Land and Resettlemefor Lg andMedium-dWater Consevancymd Hydrpoww Pecs (1991)and Reuationan DamSafety (1991). - 16 -

has been fairlyineffective, it does affirmthe principlesof comprehensiveconrol over scarce waterresources and beneficiaryresponsibility for financingoperation of waterresource projects and maintenanceand capitalcosts.j/ MWR plans to establisha completonational water administrationto enforcethe new WaterLaw in the near future1fi/ Mostof these laws have beenrecently enacted and we are onlystardng to see someof their effectswhich in generalare in the right direction. 1.53 The Enironment ProtectionLaw (1989)is also a basic law covering,among other things,protection of water resources. A specificlaw, the WaterPollution and Control Law(1984), covers aspects of waterpollution dealt with snore generally in the basiclaw. Other basic laws which affect water resourcesdevelopment are the Forestry Law (1984), the GrasslandsLaw (1984),the AquaticResources Law (1988)and the Land ManagementLaw (1988). 1.54 Agendes. As a prncipal departmentfor wateradministration under the State Council,the centralMinistry of Water ResourcesIs responsiblefor overallwater resources management.This includesimprovement and developmentof major rivers; planningwater resourcesfor majorurban water supply; basic construction of farmlandirrigation fclities, soil and waterconservation programs; rural hydropowersupply; and construcionand management of large and medium-sizedreservoirs used primarilyfor floodcontrol, irrigation, water supply and rural hydropower. MWR employsabout 1.3 millionpeople nationwide, approximately 7.5percent of whomwork directly under MWR; the remainderwere under provincial and local governments.MWR also directlysupervises the Water Resourcesand HydroelectricPower ConstructionCorporation, and administers13 institutionsof highereducation and 7 regional riverbasin commissions (RBCs). RBCs are responsiblefor planningflood control and water use within their basins and for approvingproposed projects and approvingdesign documents submittedby localagencies. 1.55 YRCCis the principaladministrative, advisory and consulting agency within the YellowRiver Basin. YRCCalso playsa uniquecoordinating role betweenMWR, the State Counciland the Clovermentof Chinaon matterspertaining to YellowRiver development. Like other RBCs, YRCCis responsiblefor the comprehensivestudy, planning,development and managementof its basin,primarily focusing on flood,sediment and droughtcontrol. Formally, the planningand policyresponsibilities of YRCCinclude: study and assessmentof all Yellow River water resources;execuin of the WaterLaw and other relevantwater resourcepolicy; derivationof log-term waterallocations for all basin ead-usersand the managementof water supplieswthin the approvedlong-term allocation schedule; and development of comprehensive basinplanning and resourceuse. To this end,YRCC prepares, adjusts and implementsanmual basin water resourceconstruction programs and evaluatesand approveslocal water resource projectsand projectdesigns.

21/ It as providesa lea umbrel overmyriad St Counci,MWR and provnca diciv, regultn and sndardscmuny enacted. j1 Watersperi andsecuiy prsonl baveso farbeen put in placein onethird of Chna's countiesto help locadauthrites executethe WaterLaw. Thesewater admistraon unitsdeal with waterw- disputesand miu, mosllythe occupationof flooddhaels, nver coursesor , or thetheft or vandaiztion of waterrewoue fcilities. - 17-

1.56 YRCC s entrsed withthe resolutionof iterprovincialwaw conlict within te basin and withmonitoring wor qualityin coordinton withth relvant mistry and the envonmena protectionagencies. As the key basin consultingand tnical service,YRCC Is also obligedto providetical and consultig servicesto local YellowRiver Basinwater resourceprojects, to orgniz and admnistertechnical exchanges for YellowRiver Basin water resourceand rural hydropowerstff, andto organizeengineerig groupsfor river improvement workl. YRCCemploys about 29,000 people throughout the basin,approximaly 80 percentof whom work directlyunder YRCCin Zhengzhou,Henau Province, and the remainderunder provcial and localgovernment burs. YRCCalso manis conactual relationshipswith the YellowRiver Hydroelectric Power Development Corporation and the XMaolangdiEngineering Company. 1.57 Unlikeother RBCs, however, YRCC manages centrly financedor joint cent- provinci YellowRiver Basin constuction works, water-svng and soiland waterconservation activitieswithin the basin, and water resourcefacilities on basin tributaries, les, and shorelines.lTe majorfacilities cureny managedand mainainedby YRCCinclude the lower reachflood contol works,the Sa mnxiaLuhunui an multireservoirsystem, and the major LoessPlatea tributarysediment control works. Ihe XiaolangdiDam proposed for WorldBank assistanceand under preparationwould also be managedand maintainedby agencieswith contractuallink to YRCC. 1.58 Ewachprovince or regionmaintains a WaterResource Bureau (WRB), responsible for theplanning, suvey, design,construction, operation and mngementof irrigation,drainage, flood conUtrolworks and rural hydropower.Designs for majorprojects are preparedby the surveyand designinstittes of provcial WRBs;projects covering areas larger than 20,000ha must be approvedby MWR. PovincialWRBs put forwardaniual waterallocation schedules for major rivers, which are *omr prefectu and countyproposals. WRBsalso hadle actualwater diversions for all rvers exceptthe YellowRiver, whose use is controlled direcdlyby the YellowRiver Commiion. Capitalconstruction companies under WRB control formerlyhandled contuction of all works,though usually part of the job wassubcontracted to lower-levelunits. Over the past several years, MWR has encouragedWRBs to permit competitivebidding for a but the smallestprojects.

1.59 WRBs at the prefectue and countylevels are directly responsiblefor the constructionand m teance of mostcanals, associated irrigation and floodcontrol stmctures and medium-sizedreservoirs. Townhips andvillages share responsibility for constructingand maintainingbranch canals, ancillary works and smallreservoirs. Staff of prefectur and county WRBsare orgazed intoirrigation districts responsible for operatingand maUining projects, planningand disbuting water,and levyingwater charges. At the townshipand village level, water users elect membersto canal committees. These committeeshandle on-farm water management,under the directionof the irrigationdistrict staff.

1.60 The Ministry of Energy (MOE) oversees al strategic aspects of power development,including six regona poweradminions whichcoordinate the operationsof the power systemsand preparelong-erm developmentprograms for the approvalof MOE. Underthe regional Imsons are 22 iiroAncialand municipalpower bureaus operatng as part of the regionalpower systems and 8 otherbureaus which operate in isolation.A number of investgationand design inttutes are afiliated with MOE, as are the 16 construction compnies involvedin buildtingpower projects. The Huaneng International Power Development - 18-

Corporationwas createdin 1985as a financingarm of the formerMiDstry of WaterResources and Hydreectric Power(MWREP). It has a mndae to raise fnds for powerdevelopm diclY from the inteational financialmarket and separatecorporations have been craed to dvlop majorbydroelectlic schemes. 1.61 Powersystem planning is the responsibilityof thePlanning Department of mOE, which reviewsthe plans proposedby the regionalpower administraionsand bureaus. The research,planing, and designof major hydroelectricprojects is undetake by the reionl hydroelectrcinvesdgation and designinstitutes and MOE'sWater Resources and Hydropower Planin Inst. On the YellowRiver, the divisionof responsibilitybetween MWR and MOE for hydropowerplanning, development and implemenaionis clear-cutbut somewhatdifferent from the general pattern discussedabove. MOE and its agenciesand regional power adminIsdons are responsiblefor the planning, developmentand managementof the hydopower-ichupper reach (above Daliushu), while MWR, YRCC and the respectie WRBs are responsiblefor the main-stemhydropower developments downstream.

1.62 Severalother cenral agenciesalso play a pivotalrole in the developmentof the Yelow River, specifically:the Ministryof Urban and Rural Construcdon(MURC), which ov-rees all strategicaspects of urbanand Industrialwater supply, treament and monitoring; the NationalEnvironmental Protection Agency (NEPA), which with YRCC and municipalMURC bodies,regulates water quality issues; and the Ministryof Transport(MOT), which develops and managesinlanJ tansport overthe two navigablestretches of the YellowRiver. Undereach of these central agenciesare provica and municipalbureaus, engineeringand contuction cmpanes and researchinsthtes. 1.63 Envroen protectionis now aforded a specialplace in government Me Stat E men ProtectionCommission (SEPC) is chairedby a viemi and includes the headsof al relevantministries and other importantagencies. It is at the apexof decisionr makn on eironment policy. NEPA, establishedas an independentagency in 1988, unctions.as the seceiat of SEPC,without mnistrd rank. It sharessome authority wkh other agencies,but is subordinateto naturalresource ministries such as MWRand the Mnistry of Foresy (MOP). 1.64 To improvethe effectsof unifiedmanagement of waterresources and to enhace exchangeof informationand coordinationin solvingproblems of mutualinerest, a Nadonal Coordiaton Group on Water Resources(NCGWR) has been established. Ihe grou i covone by the Miister of MWRand has as participantsthe ministersfrom all the concerned ministries,as wellas representativesfrom NEPA, the StatePlanning Commission (SPC) and the Academyof Sciences. Severalprovinces and municipalitieshave establishedsimila water resourcecommittees. -19-

2 REGIONS AND RESOURCES

A. HUMANRESOUCES

2.1 Populakion.There are about126 milion personsliving within the YellowRiver Basn or In areas longthe lowerreaches-1.5 percentof the nationalpopulation. Ihe basin I prom ly ru (83 percent)with a significantminority population (10 percent of the ota). Over 70 pece of the basin's populao is concentratedon 32 percent of the ar on th lowermidde and lowerreaches from Longmen to the seL 2.2 Rural popuaton inthebasin ineased at an anmualate of 0.083percent betwen 1980and 1990,and Is projectedto grow at an annualrate of 0.066percen between 1990and 2000. By the year 2000, 146 mIlionpeople wil live witin the basinand alongthe lowerresches.j Aumg that by year 2000 a per capitagrain consumptiontarget of 375 kg i met (ato this tsrget representsonly 94 percentof the current nation per capia aer), agregt grain demandwDl exceed54.8 million tons. Generally,the urba popuion Is growing fastest in the better developed and more densely populted provic in the mide and lower reaches whie the reveise i true for the rural population. GansuProvince i the ceptiou;both urban and ruralpopulation growth rates in Gansuare amongthe highest despif.the out-migrationto other prvinces.

2.3 lAbor. The rural labor force exceeds44 millionpersons, which is over g0 prcet of the tota labor force;k i esdmaedto be 30-40percent underutilized.2I Women comprse somewhatless dt half of the runr labor frce. Typically,farm womenare resposile for applyingfrtlizer, wedn and hoeing, protcting and dryig plants, and collectig fieiwood. However,women participate in most farm tasks, and partiaulay, in havest acvies. 2.4 Fam Sim Farmingis Intensive. The averagefam size is about 0.7 ha, althoughthere is nifica variaion acrossregions, with somewbat larger (1 ha), less fertfle holdin on the Loes Pla and the upper reachesand smaller(0.4 ha) farms in the more denmslysettled Pen River,Wei River and main-stemalluvi plain areas.S Agriculturallands

V "Pupaty Rep^ OtYRCC 192 2/ Ts etime was offhed by LAILprjec stafffor norten portionsof &teHoai River basin ta are quit silar to dh lowerand lowermiddlo reaches of the YellowRiver and it is udey represuitat of conditionsthoughouto th sin. 11TRus typica fams supportan aveng of fiy, persns -20 - are operatedunder contract by farmhouseholds. In general,the lengthof a contractis 13 years, but in the case of orchardsor agroforesty,which is characterizedby longproduction cycles, contract typicallyrun for 30 to 50 yes. 2.5 Rural incomes. Althoug In a few well-endowedand fvorably located suburbanar on the Wei, F, and main-sotemlower reaches, Ault industry,tsport, matketig and sevices bave grownto dominaecropping as the majorcomponent of the gross valueof rural output,in mostof the basinthere are relativelyfewer sources of off-farmincome. Fully 70 percnt of basin on-farm incomecomes from crops and 18 percentfrom raising livestock;however, as landuse datahave indicated, there is significantregional variation around this averge. In 1987,average annual rural per capitaoutput value was Y 478($89), 86 percent of the averagefor all China. In Shandong,the average1988 per capitarural incomeof Y 491 ($104)In YellowRiver environs was 16 percentlower than the provincialrural average of Y 583 ($124). 2.6 Rural Povert. Owingt he relvely inaccessibleterri andpoor trnport Inrast .cture,most of the basin's regkis have had little choicebut to emphasizegrain self- sufficiency. Unfornely, in much of the basin gain producdonhas been inadequate. Productionlevels have been low andquite unstable, and several regions, most notably the Loess Platea, have had to rely heavilyon state grain resales. Althoughon a basin-widelevel, per capitagrain outputaveraged 324 kg, 81 percentof the nationalsubsistence level, onlythe per capitagrain outputaverages on the lowerreach approached the nationaltarget subsistence level (400 kg). Excludingthe somewhatmore productivemiddle reach Pen and Wei river valleys whichaveraged 307 kg per capita(77 percentof the nationalsubsistence standard), upstrm and middlereach regions reported 1987 per capitaoutput levels below 225 kg (56percent of national subsistenceleves). In 1987, a singleprefecture on the Loess Plateau(Yulin, in northern Shaamd),requhred 0.75 mIliontons of net gain transfers.Most of a 1983net transferof 1.225 million tons of gain to the YellowRiver Basin went to the Loess Plateau.&/ Surveys undertakenin the LoessPlaeau indicatedthat 1980per capitacash inconme in mostof the plateau averagedY 50 or less, and rose to Y 200 onlyin 1985.5I 2.7 Eventhe mediocredownseteam averages can obscure poverty and its consequent socialills-poor housing,poor diets, illiteacy, marriagedifficulties and health problems-in selectedareas. For example,in tube well-irrigationareas alongthe YellowRiver in Heze prefctue in Shandong,rural per capitaincome is onlyY 339 ($72),62 percentof the national average.fI It is Ironicthat suchpoverty exists wihin one of China'swealthier provinces. The mainreasons for ruralpoverty In the basinare: (a)poor naturalresource endowments-infertile landswith lmied waterreces; (b)sucepftity to floods,drought and unpredictably severe weather,(c) poor infrstr and ication, whichrestrict opporties to learn about

AI MOA stics citedin YRCC,"Rvised Summay of thoReport an YellowRiver.' A/ Suvey rts fom the Workin oup of theLame Plateau Water and Soil Cnsevncy Plming citedin YRCC,'Revised Summary of Reporton Yllow River.' gI In addition,Mitecyjust amongthe 15-40age gru amuntsto 9 per of the tota populaton; rn housingis mosly mudhomes; clin ats insufficie; and it is estimed tat 3-5 youngmen in everyvill epere difficultiesfining wives youogHeme womn preferto mary out and otherno-Km wo do uct wat to many in. -21 - newagricultural technologies; and (d)an underdeveloped commuercial infastructure, which limits inceantivesto farmproduction. B. LAMD

2.8 Owingto the vast sizeof the basin,climatic, topographic and soil conditionsvary markedlyacross river reaches,producing a complexpattern of land use. For the basin as a whole,15.6 millionha are cultivated,which is 19.6 percentof the totalland area. However, nearlyhalf of the area in the lowerreach Is cultivablebut lessthan 9 percentand 2S percentof the upper reachand middlereaches respectively, are cultivated. The averageforest coverage basin-wideis lessthan 60 percentof the nationalaverage (i.e., 7.2 percentcoverage) and in the higherelevations of the upperreaches and In the EerduosiPlateau, water shortages and moving duneskeep forestcoverage below 4 percnt, whichIs onlyone third the nationalaverage. In the middle and lower reaches, coverage rates are somewhatbetter-I1 and 9 percent, respectively-andapproach the nationalaverage. Nearly77 percen of the basins grasslands are foundin the upper reaches,primarily In the naturalgrassland areas aboveLongyuagxda. Nearly 18 percentof the basingrasslands are foundin the middlereaches, but only 4 percent are locatedin the lowerreaches. 2.9 Soils. TheYellow River Basin sits astride two fundamentally different climactic zones-a high, cold, and arid interiorarea primarilyinfluenced by the Siberianland mass and a coastalarea witha temprae contneal monsoonclimate. Betweenthem lies a transitional zone, the LoessPlateau. The YellowRiver Basinincludes plains, river valleys,rolling hills, gulliedhills, terraces,high plains and mountains and has a longhistory of intensiveagriculura development.The alluviallower reach plain is quite flat and low and soils are typicallya mixtureof sand,silt and loamdeposited over millennia by formerYellow River courses. This soil is easyto cutivatebecause of its finetexture, but it reins waterpoorly. Soilsare deficient in nitrogenand phosphorusand to someexent are affectedby waterloggingand salinity. 2.10 On the middleand upper reaches, soil types change radically from east to west and southto north;successively, drab soils, hard black soils, sierozem soils (.e., basalsoils on a carbonateor hardpanlayer), chest soils,and brown soils are found. Beaweenthe upperand middlereaches lies the LoossPlateau, where the dominat loess silts are mixedwih fine and coarsesands. Typically,the loessIs richin phosphorusand potassim but is lackg In organic content In the iensively cultdvatedand ancientirrigated areas on the Inner Mongoliaand Ningxiaplains, are foundalluvial soWI. These are differentatedprimarily on the basisof their solublesalt contentinto relativelyless salineirrigated soils and highlysaline solonchaks. The irrigatedsoils, leachedand addedto during cenuries of irrigationand flooding,have a low organiccontent and are alsodeficient in nitrogenand phosphorus, but are productiveIf carelly fertlized and maintined. Near the river source,the soils are marshy grasslandsoils.

C. SURFACEWATER

2.11 Runoff. IThelong-term average annual runoff of the Yellow Rive: is approximaely58 billion mn,of which two thirds originatesupstream of Lanzhouand the remainingthird from the watersheddownstream of Longmen(see Table 2.1). Ihe reach betweenLanzhou and Hekouzhennormally contributes very litle and in a dry year canprodce a net loss. In the drlest years, flowsat Huayuankoucan be aboutone haf of the long-term averageand in wettestyears nearly twice the average. Duringthe year, about60 percentof the - 22 -

flow occus duringthe floodseaon, July-September.Thes recordedstreamflows have bee Influencedover the yearsby upstm eservoirdevelopmet and by xtactions for irigadon and M&I demands. To simulatefture basin-widewater supplyand demandand reservoir opeatI, it is necessayto removethese man-made Influences from the data.

Table 2.1: YELLOWRiVER NATURAL FLOW (1919-79) IA

Catch- Coeff. liver meat of varl- Ratlo station Reach ares Ananualraoff billion X ability maml Long %2) max mu 302 751 ev min term awv

Guide Upper 133,650 20.50 35.2 36.22 10.17 20.80 16.48 0.22 3.2 Lanzhou Upper 222,551 32.61 56.0 51.51 16.55 32.46 26.77 0.22 3.1 Bbkousen Upper 385,966 31.78 54.6 54.17 16.02 30.90 26.24 0.23 3.4 Lonuma Middle 497,552 38.94 66.9 65.26 19.66 38.74 31.68 0.21 3.3 Sama=da Middle 688,421 50.38 86.0 77.02 23.97 48.53 41.91 0.23 3.2 suayuaukou Lover 730,026 56.34 96.2 93.87 27.35 54.41 46.59 0.24 3.4 Lijin Lower 752,000 58.03 100.0 97.05 27.81 55.80 47.52 0.26 3.4

La Thisseries is slightdifferent from the series used In the BLM. The BLMused 1919-74 series sincemonthly flows were availablefor this series. Thess are naturalflows, I.e., observedflows are adjustedfor abstractionsfrom the river.

2.12 Like the recordedseries, the reconstructednaual runoffseries shows a marked regionalim_balane. Nealy 56 percentof the basin-widefigure originates above Lazhou and 33 percentfrom reaches downstream of Longmen(21 percentalone fiom the twomajor tributary basins,the Pen and the Wei rivers). Sincethe relatie impactof humanuse is greaterIn dry periods,the nat seriesdisplays less vadation. In the driestyears, natural annual flows are 22 percentless thanthe averageand in the wettestyears 58 percentgreater. Seasonally,of the averageannual total, 44 perent is inflowin the July-Septemberperiod. f between20 and 24 billionen are requiredto flushsediment, only 33-37 billion in remainfor onsumptiveuse, and t is ont is basis iat the StateCouncil derived the 37 biXlione long-termaverage nmoff totalavaible for consumptionamong end-user provinces. 2.13 Unfrtnately, withthe exceptionof the Liujiaxiaand Longyangxia reservoirs, the reguang capacityof the remainingmain-stem works is quwtelimited. Seventypercent of the basin'spresent reservoir capacity is foundin the upperreaches above Lanzhou, while much of the watersupply is neededin the reachesbelow Lanzhou. In particular,there is no major reguati workbelow Hekouzhen on the mainstream and on the majortributary streams there are few remainingsites suitable for largeor medium-sizedreservoirs. On tributarystreams on the LoessPlatea, the controlarea of eistig reservoirsis only 12 percentof the totalplateau triutry area, and ecisdtngreservoir capacity is not well matchedto culivatedarea. D. GROUNDWATER

2.14 The extentof groundwaterresources varies considerably hrougbout the area servedby th YellowRiver, from modulus lows of 25,000mefim/year in arid areasof northern Shaanxito highs exceeding315,000 m'IkmY/year near Taiyuanin thie Fen River valley, -23 -

337,000m'/km 2 yearalong the Wel River between Baoji and Xlan, and 250,000 mkxnslye alongthe mainstem In InnerMongolia (see Map 3). About2S percentof the groundwatet suppliesare In theWel and Fen plains, 2S percentIn he N ila/iner Mougoliaplain and24 percentin the lowerreach ptovinces of Henanand Shandong(see Table2.2). The t. groundwaterresources in the basi amunt to 19.3bion &Iyear. Thee, roundwat I rechargedfrom rafl itradonand seepage frm hTmgatloncanas and the river hanel. Table 2.2: PRIT STATusOF GROUNDWATER RESOURCE DEVEOmE (1987) BY REGION

gxploltable Agri- dusa- Total $.wV culture trial d wv. SulVU l`ue perpctie of Regions ICesat. bse jSted e g. rderue (10 C10%'1)I') a ( 10,n0 (figh

1 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.15 0.15 Overdraft of groundwater 2 3.82 3.25 0.52 3.77 0.05 Groundwater resouces are fully utilized 3 54.75 14.62 4.15 18.77 35.98 Great potential for conjunctive use of surface and roundwater resource in =Tnele Plain a"d 1e1 s River bend plain

4 25.69 1.92 0.61 2.53 23.16 21x10V% of groundwater is in Mao Ik Deert, groundwater resoures cn be used for water supply to pator- elatae 5 55.01 38.08 7.18 45.26 9.75 Groundwater resouces can be usod la conjuctlon vith urface water for agricltural ad uuIcipal water suply

6 6.08 10.37 1.28 11.65 -5.57 Overdraft of groundwter 7 47.64 33.22 4.13 37.35 10.29 Groundwater can be used In conjunctionwlth Yellow Riverwater for irritlio

Total 193.00 101.60 1ZJI 119.41 zLZ

2.15 Groundwaterextracon on the Yelow River bea centuriesago with the excavationon the lower reachof shallowwells of 5-6 m, usally brick-linedand servicedby low-yieldingmanual water lift. Wdl excavaon acceleratedextrmely rapidly in the late 1960s and 1970sdue to a mber of fators, specifically:the widespreaduse of welldrinage to am ratesecondary salhizatlon on the lowerYellow River; succs droughton theNorth ChnaPlain through the 1970s;the Introduction of newexcmvtion and eacton technologies; and welle vationand fuel subsidies. Withdrwals ar quIe uno; they are on the Wei and Fen riverplains (Region 5) and on rgad a alongthe lower YellowRiver plan at somedace from the river itself, and are excessivein Region7. Ihere is still a surplusof 7.3 billionWn of groundwae, but the locatonof the sourcesare quitediffrent from -24 - thoseof te demd. As a mult of overdrafts,serious grountdwater depression cones began to developas early as 1979around cities such as Jina, Xian, Talyuan,etc. 2.16 Therapid expansion of groundwaterwithdrawals has also lowered the watertable In formly salized areasalong the lowerreach, whichshrank from 1.1 mfllon ha in 1962to 0.5 millionha In 1983and has mahntalnedthi area In the l990s. Nonetheless,In somesreas adjacentto the YetlowRiver, particularty in Irrigatedaas in Nina and InnerMongolia and alongthe suspendedlower reach, wherelarge quantitiesof river waterare divertedwith litte contro and inadequatedrainage, the groundwatertable has begin to rise into the root zone, causingserious waterlogging and salinizatlonproblems.

E. INDUSnUALBASE

2.17 The major YellowRiver industrialsectors have traditionallybeen energy, metallurgy,machine building and textiles,but in recentyears light industryand townshipand villageenterprises have grown rapidly. Thebasin-wide gross value of industrialoutput (GVIO) was esdmaedat Y 67.5 billion,and in termsof qualityand diversityof goodsproduced, basin producerswere rapidly closingthe gap betweenthemselves and other advancedChinese producers.

2.18 TheYellow River has especiallyabundant energy resources-27 percent of 1990 GVIOcame from tLe energy sector. The upperreach, with its large flow,low sedimentcontent and largefall is particularlysuited for hydropowerdevelopment The middle reach contains the Shanxl-nnerMMongolia coal fields, with 21 majorcoal mines and countlesslocal mines, and the lower reach has two of China's largest oilfields (Zhongyuanand Shengli). The basin's mtalurgical industryis also welldeveloped. Two of China'smajor iron and steel complexes a fmud in the basin(Baotou and Taiyuan) and a numberof mid-sizedcenters (Lanhou, Xian, lnan, Xiig, iuhehaote,Shizuisbam and Linfen)as well as 4 of China's 8 majoraluminum smelters(Zhergpou, Baotou,Lanzhou and Qingtongxia) and 2 of 5 majorcopper mining areas (Baiyinand Zhongt ). A numberof centershave significant machine building enterprises, specializingin machinetools for heavyindustry, mining, textes, petrochemicalsand agriculturil machinery.Sixtn percentof basinGVI0 wasproduced by this sector. Thebasin also contains a number of major cowonmills (Xian, Xlanyangand Zhengzhou),principal wool mils (Iuhehaote, Yinchuan,Xining, Lanou, Manshui,Xhan, Xianyang and Yulin),and major synteiWctextile plants (Lanhou, Taiyuan,Hongdong, Yuncheng, and Jiaocheng). In 1990,the textil sectorproduced 18 percentof totalbasin GVIO. Finally,there are also large chemical and food sectorsin the basin 2.19 Overall,the idustria sectoris ratherunderdeveloped. The basin's three largest industralcenters-Xian, Jinan and Lanzhou-rank17, 19 and 20, respectively,for Chinaas a whole. Also, the stucture of industryis qulte imbalanced;as elsewhere,the supplyof light industril goods fUls short of the demandand due to fundingand inrstrucu obstacles, signiicn mineraland energyresources await development. 2.20 In 1987,for the basinas a whole,4.0 biSlionmn, 53 percentfrom groundwater, wasdiered or extactedto meetan inustri waterconsumpton demand of about2 bilion ms (an implieddelvey efficiencyof 46 percent). Waterlosses from industrial d sionsare bot retavely andabsolutely ger thansimiar lossesfrom sdenti diversions;nealy 60 percet of total industria water consumptiondemands were met with deliveryefficiencies less t"a -25 -

47 percen. Conservationprospects are also somewhatbeKter ta with residentl use as lndusti divrions nearly 8 percentof all diversions. Both surfaceand groudwater deliveryefficiencies are at about the same poor levels; however, iheseare regionaltrends. Groundwaterlosses are higheverywhee except where there Is significatoverdraft, i.e., the Fen and Wei river valleys;by contrast,surface water lossesare greatestIn the Longyangxlato Lanzhoureach, the Fen and Wei river valleys,and on the Sanmenxiato Huayuankoureacb.

F. REGIONALDELINETON

2.21 For the purposeof this study,the YellowRiver Basinhas beendivided Into ten regionsbased on hydrologic,agroclimatic, and soil conditions,and importantadministrtve boundaries(see Map 4), as follows: Region1 - fromthe river sourceto Longyangxla,Qingbai; Region2 - fromLongyangxia to Lanzhou,Gansu; Region3A - from Lanzhouto the Ihngxia-InnerMongolia border at Wubai; Regon 3B - fromWubal to Hebouzhen,Timer Mongolia; Region4 - the LoessPlateau and the mainstem between Hekouzhen and Longmen WegionSA - the Fen RiverValley in Shamiand the mainstem between Logmev and Sanmeuxia,Henan; RegionSB - the Wei RiverValley in Shaanxi; Regon 6 - from Sanmenxiato Huayuankou,Henan; Region7A - from Huayuankouto the Henan-Shandongborder at Heze;and We8on7B - fromHeze to the BohaiSea.Z/ The basicprinciples underlying this classificadonare as follows: (a) toat withinregions, natural geographic conditions, water resource development and use, and water conservancydevelopment and objecdvesare sufficiently similaror sufficientlydissimilar;

(b) thatdistinctions imporant to differentmain-stem river sections or tibutariesbe mIntaned; however,where cridcaldifferences of the naturedescribed above are fiond or majortrluaries, thenprinciple (a) holds;and

(c) that, where possible, administrativeboundaies and catcbment areas correspondingto majorworks on the mainstem or tributariesbe preseved.

Region 1: RIver Source-Longyangxa. 2.22 Thisregion is locaed on the northeastemQinad-Tbe ateau;on the southf ktborders on the Bayakea Mounti, on the westthe KunlunMountains and on the norththe ZhaidamuBasin. The JishishanMountains cut throughIts midst. Ihe averageeevadon of the

/ Is delnatin diffes sihty fwvmtht commonlyused by 'YRCC we have Regions3, 5, an 7 daongprvincal nes,have d YRCCRegion 8 into Region4 (theLoos Plateau),and bha extendedto scopeof Region7 to includeall areas irrigt by Yelow Rver water,not just thos insidethe maindies. -26-

reion is above3,000 mi. The catchent ea is 131,420krn and containsportions of 14 countiesIn three po (Qighai,Sichuan and Gansu). 2.23 m clime highand cold; the avea monthlytempare rages between -12? and10C andmany aras bh no aolutely frost-frveperiods. Annualsunight Is about 2,300-3,000hours. Precipitaonranges between 300 and700 mm, increasingfrom north to south,and i y 70 pct falUsbetween June and Sepember. Annual evaporation averagesbetween 800 and 1,200 mm. 2.24 Naturarnoff average21.33 billion eS. At present,groundwater extraction Isabout 17 million m. he utizationrat of surficerunoff Is only 0.8 percent.There are only 7 smallresevoirs in thisregion (total capacity 1.44 million mn) and 29 smallweirs; together thesecan supply 10.68 million nil. Altogetherthere are 72 diversion schemes, 35 liftprojects and81 other project; together these can supply about 275.2 million m3 (includinggroundwater). 2.25 heregion sprimarly grasslands (71 percent of the total area), especially above Maqu.The aveng per capitalivestock holdings (lrge andsmall) was 26 in 1980and animal husdry accountedfor 74 perct of theregion's gross per capitaagricultura output value. Farmingis concentratedon rihr valleysand terraceson the stretchbetween Maqu and longyangxla.The actual culvated area in 1987was 371,900 mu, of which147,200 mu were acty Iigted ug 244 millionm' of surfac water and 13.8 millionm3 of groundwater. Themajor crops are spring wheat, highand barley and legumes. The average yield for wheat in 1987was alnost 4 tons/ha.There are no largeindustrial, municipal or miningenterprises. hoGVIO in the region as onlyY 30.26mllion n 1980,but t rosein real termsrapidly to 243million in 1989. R on2:2-Iahou 226 hisregion is locatedon the westernedge of theLoess Plateau. Most, 'the regionis halfrangeland and half farmand. ThoHuangshui River Basin is the grainbase for QingbdPwvince. The averae elevationis above2,000 m, andthere are peaks with elevations around4,000 m. Themain stem of the YellowRiver is sinuous,with a steepfall, and is the river'smost fertle ground for hydropower development. At present, there are four power plants on thisreach (Longyanga Liujiaxia,Yanguoxia and Bapanxia) and two underconstruction (Lijiaxiaand Daxia). The catcit ara of thisregion is 91,131kn' andcontains portions of 31 countesin two northwern provinces(Qinghai and Gansu). 2.27 Averag monly temperatr rangebetween 60 to 18C, and average rcpiation rang between300 and 800mm, but rainfallis bothspatily and seasonally uneven. Th long-tormaverage naturial noff Is esdmatedto be 11.6billion mn and is concentratedon the Tao and Datongrvers; runoffis not so high on the Huangshuiand Zh_anag River,wih 60 pece occurringin the June-Septemberperiod. The long-term aveag measuredsedimet content at Lanboustation was a relativelyclear 110 million tons. In 1987,grundwtr extracdonwas 494 milIonrn. Thereare nowfour larg reservoirs (Lngyanocla,Liujiaxia, Yguoxia andBapanxa, with total storago of 30.67billion ns and actvesag of 23.47billion ni). LAnyagia hasmultiyear storage, Liujiaxia annual storage andYanguoxia and Bapanida dafly storage. hereis alsoone medim-sized reservoir, 110 small resrvoirsand 522 smaller weks. Thereare 2,333 diversion works, 2,013 lift schemes and 834 otherworks, with a combinedsupply capacity of 2.2 billionnin. -27 -

2.28 Of the 13.02millon mu cultivatedland in 1987,2.52 millionmu of primary river valleyland (19.4percent of culffvatedarea) wereactly Irrigated.The majorIrrigated areas are locaed alongboth banks of the mai stem betweenLongyangxla and Liujiada in Qinghai,along the main stemand tributariesof the Huangshulin Qinghai,and along the trbutaies and main stem of tte TaoheRiver In Gansu. The majorcrps are springwheat, sumner corn and coarsegrains, and variouseconomic crops and oilseeds. Averageyields in 1987were: springwheat, 2.6 tons/ha;corn 3.9, tons/ha;and oilseeds,1.1 tonsha. 2.29 Regionalindustry Is relativelywell developed,with the large Industrialand provincialadministrative centers, Lanzhou and Xining,located within the region,as well as a numberof largehydropower facilities and miningenterprses. Theregional GVIO was Y 4.44 billon in 1980,but rose to Y 5.8 billionin 1989. RD on 3A Lanzou-Wuhai 2.30 Most of this region is nordt of the Great Wall, betweenthe Tenggelland Maowusudeserts and coversan areaof 44,000km 2 . Ihis regioncontains the vast (often50 klr wide) and frtile Ninga YellowRiver plains, with censurie-oldagricultur and irgaton systems;it Is one of Chin' great northwestemgrain basins. The regions wintersand sprins are cold and dry wih little snowbut fiequentsandstorms. Summers and fails are hot and dry witheceptional ev ir ton and scarcerainfIa. The averageannual tempature rages between-10 and 221C. Averageanmnal precipitation is 150450 mm of which70-80 percent fall in theJune-September period. Alongthe mainstem between Lanzhou and Qigtngxia are a numberof sinuousand deepgorges eminently suitable for hydropowerdevelopment. Of the six tes identfiedfor hydro development (Xaaoxia, Xiaxia, Wujinxia, X baoguayn,Daliushu andQingtongxia) only Qingtongxia iscurrently operatn withan insIled capacityof 272MW. 2.31 Themajor Irrigated areas are located in fourmajor high-lift Yellow River main- stemdistricts (Sanjiaocheng, Xipan, Jinghul and Jingtai) in Gansu,and two ancient and miassve gravity-fedalluvial floodplain irrigation districts (Weining and Qingtongxla)on the Ningxia Plain Ihe high-liftshemes are all relativelyrecent. Most were begun in the 1970sand 1980s andwere desiged to extendirrigation to higherelevation less flatlandsas a meamto provie Irrigatedland for theresetdement of poorfumers. 2.32 In manyof theseareas, main works have been completed, but onlya small perntage of on-farmwork havebeen constructed. Those fed by theQingtongxi irrigation workson the NlngxlaPlain are well over a thoand yearsold. However,due to inadequate controland draige, wateioggingand salit problemsseverely limted cropoutput The constructionof the Qlagogx1adiversion dam and seven main canals In the 1958-67period markedlyimproved matters. Nonetheless,mantenan has beenpoor and drainageworks inadeqat, resultig Insteadily worseng waterloggingand salinity problems. At presen there are2 majorreservoits, 21 mid-sizedstre facilties,159 small-zed reservoirs and 409 small vige weirs. Thereare 228 diversion projects, 4,102 lift schemes and 330 other works with a combinedsupply capability of 9.14 biion ' (ofwhich 860 mIion i are fromgrundwater). In 1987,goundwater etaction aoud to m millionmi. Thesedint contentof fiows throught regionIs a relativelylow 5-10kglm3. 2.33 Of the 10.9million mu cultivaed ara in 1987,5.04 mIlion mu wereirrigated using5.8 billion mW of water;the greatest part of this,92 percent,came from the Yellow River. -28 -

The maJorcrops are springwheat, summer coM, rapeseed and paddy withaverage yields (in 1987)of 2, 5.2, 1.5, and 8.2 tons/ha,respectively. 2.34 This egion containSthe industial ceners of Yinchuanand Shizuishanas well as smallercees at Zhongwel,Zhongning, Qingtongxia, Wuzhong, Pingluo, Lingwu, Jingyuan and Dingxi. The GVIOwas Y 6 billionin 1980,but it rose rapidlyto Y 7.5 billionin 1989. Region3B: Wuhal-iekouzhen 2.35 Thisregion is the northernmostsection of the YellowRiver; it is entirelynorth of the GreatWall, boundedto the west by the WulanbuheDesert, to the southby the Kubuqi Deset andthe EerduosiPlateau, and to the northby the YinshanMountains. It containsthe vast (often 50-km wide), and fertle Inner MongoliaYellow River plains, with centries-old agriculturaland irrigationsystems, similar to the NingxiaPlains in Region3B and is one of northwestChinea's greatest grain bases. The area Is alluvialfloodplain, protected by mountains from the arid wastesto the north and west and facingon the oppositeflank the vast grasslands of the OrdosPlateau. The averageelevation is about 1,000m. The tchmentarea of this regionis 89,053km 2 and contansportions of 19 InnerMongolia banners (counties). 2.36 The Wuhai-Hekouzhenregion has an arid condnentalclimate, with extreme summer and winr umpaures and low, irregular rainfall, most of which is concentratedin the summermonths. Averagedaily tmperaatur rangefrom a Januarylow of -11 C to 23°C in July. Wintertemperaures remain below freezingfrom Novemberto March; a frost-free periodof 130-160days allowsa four to five monthgrowing season; good sunlightconditions (3,200hours annually) are a positivefactor in plantgrowth. Averageannual precipitation in the watern Pat of the regionis 130-150mmand 300-400mm in the eastempart. Of theseaverage annualfigures, 70-80 percent falls in the July-Septemberperiod. Annualevapotranspiration is a high2,100-2,300 mm. Highwinds and sandstormsare frequentduring the winterand spring. 2.37 Crop waterdeficits are quitelarge. The regionhas a long-termaverage runoff of only 900 millionmn. Becauseof the excepon evaporationand other seepagelosses, the long-tem average nural rnoff at Hekouzhenis less than th at Lazhou. Ih 1987, groundwatereai amouted to 1.7 billionin. The sedimentload in flowsthrough this regionis a relativelylow 5-10 kg/in. 2.38 Irrigationhas alwaysboee neededto producecrops in this region;it beganas oarly as the sixth centr AD and by 1900 1 millIonmu were under irrigation. However, irrigationwater was obtainedthrough direct diversion channels from the YellowRiver, leaving the area vrable to floodingand drought. Since the late 1950s,the Governmet has undetakenmajor programs to improveand expandthe systemof canalsand controlstructures, includingthe Sanshenggongdiversion dam and a 230-kmtrnk canal. However,increases in crop outputhave been limitedby worning watedoggingand salinityproblems, which are the reslt of inadequatecomplementary iestments in drainage.In 1987, 10 millionmu were irrigatedusing 11.5 billionmW of water,92 percentfrom the YellowRiver. Ihe major crops arespring wheat, mmercorn, rapeseed and paddy with average yields (in 1987)of 2, 5.2, 1.5, and 8.2 tons/ha, respectively. The majorirrigation districts include the Hetao, Nanan and Tumocandisicts. Ibis regionconis the largeiustri centersof Huhehaote,Baotou and Wuhalas well as a numberof smallersized cities and majorminng centers. -29-

Regon 4s Hekouzhen-Longmen 2.39 This regionencompasses the greatestportion of the LoessPlateau, combining the gulliedand hilly portionsof the Loess Plateauthat are withinthe YellowRiver Basin betweenHekouzhen and Longmenwith the closedEerduosi Plateau Basin sections of the Loass Plateau.lhe elevationranges between 800 and2,000 m, but withthe exceptionof the Eerduosi Plateau,the morphologyIs very broken,with deep 100-200m gullies. The BerduosiPlateau is mainlywindswept rangelands and movingor fixeddesert. Soiland water erosion Is extremely severe,with annual sediment volumes around 900 milion tons. As the river crossesthe gorges and valleysof the LoessPlateau along the 725 km main-stemreach betweenHekouzben and Longmen,there is considerablehydropower potential. However,of the identifiedpotential hydropowersites at Wanjiazhai,Longkou, Tianqiao, Qikou, lundu, Sanjiao,Longnen and Yumenkou,only the Tianqiaorun-of-river plant is in operation. Tne catchmentarea of this regionis 153,860km 2 and it containsall or portionsof 47 countiesin three provinces(inner Mongolia,Shaanxi and Shanxi). 2.40 The climateis cold and dry in winter and spring, with fierce sandstorms. Summersand fallsare scorching.The averagemonthly temperau is between-6° and 20*C withinthe basinand between-10° and 22°C on the EerduosiPlateau. Annualprecipitation withinthe basinranges between 400 and 600 mm and increasesto the south; 70-80percent is concenhatedin the June-Septembperiod, with only 15-25pentw fallingin the criticalApril- June growingperiod. Annualevapotranspiration is between 1,000 and 1,400mm. Droughts are common.

2.41 Naturalrunoff is esftimatedto be 6.16 billionm and in 1987281 millionin' of groundwaterwere extraed. However,the tremendousvariability In seasonalflows and sedimentdelivery has made water resourcedevelcpinent in the region very difficult. In particular,flood season flows are charctized by veryhigh sediment loads-approximately 800 kg/n and occasionallyexceeding 1,000 kg/le. Withinthe basin, the majorsource of wateris fromtibutary schemes,whereas on the EerduosiPlateau, the majorsource is groundwater. 2.42 The land is severelydegraded across the entire regiondue to the long-term effects of consecutivedrought, windblowndune movements,severe erosion, inappropriate cultivationand crude farmingtechnology, and uncontrolledgrazing. Large portionsof the region are unsuitablefor most hulmanoccupations. In 1987, only 22.69 million mu (14.7percent of the entireregion's land area) was cultivated; grasslands accounted for a further 20 percent;and of the cultivatedarea, only 1.6 millionmu were actuallyirrigated. The major crops are spring wheat,summer corn and oilseeds,with yieldsaveraging 0.9, 2.1 and 1.5 tons/ha, respectively,in 1987. This regionis one of the largest contiguousblocks of low- yieldinglands in all of China. Ihe regionhas no majorindustri or urbancenters.

RegionSA: Fen River Valleyand L _ng_-SanmexiaMain Stem 2.43 Thisregion encompasses the rich Fen Rivertributary valley in the main Shanxi coal regionas well asthe Yelow Rive main stemfrom Longnen to Sanmenxia.It is on the easternfringe of boththe LoessPlateau and the YellowRiver Basin and on the westernfinge of the headwatersof the more northerlyHai River Basin. It is boundedto the west by the Luliangand Huoxianmountains, to the northby the YunzhongMounins, to the east by the TaiyueMountains and the Qin Riverwatrshed, and to the southby the ZhongdaoMountains. - 30 -

The FenRiver Valley contains two fertfle,well-developed agricultural areas, the TalyumValley andthe southShanxi Valley, which are critical to Shauxiagriculal andindustrial deel The catchmentarea of the regionis 52,208km 2and containsall or part of 42 countiesIn Shanxi and Hena.

2.44 Ihe climateis generallymild, with adequate rainfall that increase from north to south. The average monthlytemperature ranges from 4e to 249C. Annual precipitation averages400-900 mm, 60-70 percent falling as torrentialrains In the summermouths. The long- tem averageof naturalrunoff is estimatedto be 11.66 billionmin; however, there is large variationbetween runoff In the relativelywell-endowed northen sectionsof the valleyand that in the denselypopulated and highlydeveloped Taiyuan and Yunchengplains. As a resultof this unevendistnbution, drought is the mostfrequent and criticalnatura disasterfacing the region. A small droughtcan be expectedone year in two and major droughtsone year in seven. Sedimentload Is high-between10-30 kg,'im3-but on the scaleof the LoessPlateau tibutaies, the Fen River is not a significantcontributor to downstrem sedimentdeposition. In 1987, groundwaterextraction was 1.7 billionin'. 2.45 The extractionof groundwaterin the Fen River Basin around Taiyuan is consideredto be excessive-about90 percentof exploitableresources; however, it is only60 percentin the Yunchengand Linfenbasins. However,severe groundwater funnels have rapidly developedunder Taiyuan and Yuncheng cities. Althoughthere are fourlarge reservois (Fenhe, Wenyu,Zhaikou and Sanmenxia), 18 mid-sizedreservoirs, and mnmerous small-sized reservoirs and vilage weirs, stillstorage facilities are woefullyinadequate. Therefotre, the Irrigatedarea is assuredof water supplyat onlylow rates and in the criticalMay-June irrigation period the lowerreaches of the Fen RiverValley are frequentdydry. Thereare also threemajor Fen River diversionstructures, 12 majorlift works (11 on bothbanks of the mainstem between Yumenkou and Sarnenxia and one on the Fen Riverat Fennan),and numerousother projects. 2.46 Of the 29.9 millionmu of cultivatedfarmland in 1987,8.3 millionwere irigated using 3.1 billionin of water;fully 45 percentof this came fromgroundwar sources. The major irrigationdiversions are foundnear the Fenhe Reservoir,near LinfenCity, between Linfenand the confluenceof the Fenand Yellowrivers, in distinctlift areasalong the mainstem and alongboth banks of the SushuiRiver near Yunchengcity. Majorcrops are winterwheat, summercorn, oiiseeds,cotton and somelimited paddy. In 1987,average yields attained 2.25 tons/hafor wheat,3.59 tons/ha for corn,0.86 tons/hafor cotton,1.02 tons/a for oiseed', and 4.97 tons/hafor paddy.

2.47 Theregion has one of the YellowRiver's mostsignfica urbanand industial sectors,with a singlelarge center at Taiyuan,mid-sized centers at Yuci,Linfen and Sanmenxia. and at leasta dozenother sites, 17 majorcoal miningcenters and three majorgypsum mines. Regon SB: Wei River Valley

2.48 lTis regionoccupies the southeasternLoess Plateau, encompassing the relatively well-developedcental GuanzhongPlain of the Wei Rivervalley as well as a numberof Wel Rivertributaries, the Jingand Luo rivers,with headwaters in the LoessPlateau. TheGuanhong Plain is not only centralShaanxi's major urban and industial naus but it is one of China's majorgrain bases. The GuanzhongPlain is almostendrely irrigated by the Wei River and its tributies continuoudyalong both banks between the barrageat Baojixiaand the YellowRiver -31 - main stm. Ihe catchmentarea of the region is 138,634 km2and contains all or part of 79 countiesin Gansu,Ningxia and Shaanxi.

2.49 There is wide variation in topography and soils. The northemnthird i8 part of the Lo Plateau. he tein is hilly, with elevationsranging east to west frm 500 to 1,000m. The middlethird, centeringon the Wei River Valley, is a lower elevatan area (300-500m east to west)of rich alluvialsoils. The southernthird Is definedby the nuged QinlingMountains. 2-50 Theregion has a continentalmonsoon climate with dry, moderatelycold winters and hot, wet summers. The averagedaily temperaturesrange fiom a Januarylow of -29C to 30eCin lly. Annualprecipitation averages 520-550 mm, with considerable seasonal and anul variation.The main sources of irrigationwater are the YellowRiver water and threeof its lage tibutares, the Luo, the Jing and the Wei rivers. Totalannual regulated flow from the Luo and the Weiaverages 3.9 billionni', whichfalls well below crop water requirements in thre of four years. Theregion's authorized allocation of 4 billionm& of YellowRiver water has been baely tappeddue to the highcosts and technical problems of conveyingwater to the bluffsoverlooking te riverat Donglei.Drought is the mostfrequent and criticalnatural disaster facing this region. Theo dimentload in flowsis quitehigh,between 50 and 100kglni on the WeiRiver main stem and in excessof 150kgi on the Jing and Luo rivers;this regionis a significantconibutor to downstreamsediment flows.

2.51 In 1987,groundwater extraction was quiteexcessive, at 3.0 billionin. Well Irrigationis concentatedon the southbank of the WeiRiver and, when combined with massive M&I withdrawals,extraction rates have been as high as 337,000rn?/k. Not surprisingly,a severe groundwaterfunnel has developedunder Xian. There are four large reservoirs (Fengiashan,Bajiazul, Shitouhe, and Yangmaowan),29 mid-sizedreservoirs, and numero small-sizedreservoirs and village weirs. However,storage is consideredto be inadequate,since the irrigatedarea Is assuredof water supplyonly at low rates and in the criticalMay-June kIrigationperiod the lowerreaches of the Jing, Luo and Wei river valleysfrqueny run dry.

2.52 Of the 51 millionmu of cultivatedfarmland in 1987, 14.1 millionmu were irrigatedusing 5.3 biBlionen of water, 55 percentof it from surfacewater diversions. The major irigation diversionsare foundalong the Wei River main stem belowBaojlxla, on the lower reachesof the Jing and Luo rivers, and in newhigh-lift schemes fed from the Yellow River main stem. Major crops are winter wheat,summer corn, oilseeds,cotton and some limitedpaddy. In 1987,average yields attained 2.25 tons/hafor wheat,3.59 tons/hafor cor, 0.86 tona for cotton,1.02 tonsha fbt oilseeds,and 4.97 tons/hafor paddy. 2.53 The regioncontains Important urban and industrialsectors, with large cears at Mlan,Xanyang and ranshui; mid-sizedcenters at Baojl,Tongihuan, and at least a dozen othersites; and 3 majorand 5 mid-sizedcoal mining centers. Regon 6: anumeuda-Huayuankou 2.54 Ihis regionfollows the mainstem from Sanmenxia to Huayuankouand includes the Qin andYiluo tributaries. Located on the easternfrnge of the LoessPltau, it is primiy mountainousor hilly. The catchmentarea is 41,637km 2 and contais all or portionsof 28 countiesIn three middlereach provinces (Shaanxi, Shanxi and Henan). -32-

2.55 Wintersare cold and dry, springIs dry and windyand summersand falls are characterizedby torrentialstorms and frequentfloods and hot spells. The averagemonthy temperatureranges between -2? and 24°C and there are between1S0 and 245 frost-freedays. Averageannual precipitation is between600 and 900 mm, with60-70 percent falling In June- September.Annual average evapotranspiradon ranges between 900 and 1,200mm. 2.56 Thelong-term average of naturalrunoff Is estimatedto be 4.5 billion ' and the sedimentdelivery ot varioustributaries In this regionIs quiteminimal. In 1987,groundwater extractionwas 1.4billion e'. Thereare three largereservoirs-Sanmenxia, Luhun and Guxian; 19 mid-sizedreservoirs, 486 small reservoirs and 2,873 small weirs. Thereare 1,897diversion works,4,282 lift schemesand 370 otherworks with a combinedsupply capacity of 2.77 billion m3(of which 1.09billion m3 is from groundwater).

2.57 In 1987,1.66 billion in of surfacewater and 1.04biUlion mn groundwater were divertedto irrigate3.9 millionmu of the 14.07-millionmu cultivatedarea. The majorcrops are winterwheat, summer corn, cotton, oilseeds and paddy. The average1987 yields of thesecrops were: winterwheat, 3 tons/ha;corn, 3.2 tons/ha;cotton, 0.6 tons/ha;oilseeds, 1.2 tons/ha;and paddy,5.1 tons/ha. 2.58 The majorindustrial center in the regionis the city of Luoyang,however there are alsoa numberof mid-sizedand smaller municipalities and mining enterprises. The abundant coalreserves in the northernand western sections of the regionare consideredpart of the Shanxi energybase. In 1980,GVIO was Y 3.7 billion. Wegion7A: Huayuankou-Heze 2.59 This regionand the next encompassthe lower reachesof the YellowRiver, includingboth the floodplain*suspended" between embankment dikes as wellas areas outside the leveesfed by YellowRiver diversions. The area incorporatesthat segmentof the alluvial plainof the YellowRiver lower reach within Henan, the centralpart of the NorthChina Plain. Thecatchment area is 7,475lmn' in 7 countiesin Henan. Althoughthe catchmentarea is small, the area of influencein termsof providingirrigation water covers about 15,000kmi. 2.60 The climateis temperatecontinentl monsoon-springis dry and windywith occasionalsandstorms; summer is hot and wet, leadingto excessiverunoff, floodingand waterloggingin someparts of the region;fall is dry, and wintermoderately cold and dry. The meananmnal temperature is 14'C; the dailytemperature ranges from a low of -4°C in January to a high of 27°C in July. The frost-freeperiod is about 186-210days and there are about 2,S00-3,158hours of sunlightannually. Annual rainfall is between600 and700 mm; however, there are significantinterannua and interseasonalvarFitions. Seventypercent of the anmnal precipitationfalls in the June-Septemberperiod. Meanannual evaporation is between1,500 and 2,000mm. 2.61 The long-termaverage of naturalrunoff is estimatedto be 2.1 billion in. Groundwaterextraction has grownsteadily in recentdecades. In 1987,It reached2.7 billionm3. Thereare 22 majorYellow River diversion gates, 2 majorculverts and 2 siphonsalong the dikes betweenHuayuankou and the Shandongborder, with a combineddesign flow of 1,548.1m31sec, that serves25 majorirrigation districts. -33 -

2.62 Tno Novemberto Aprilperiod is usuallyquie dry; the conjunctionof severe droughts,which recur about once every ten years, has lent impetusto the developmentof Irigation. The constuctionof majorcentrally finaced YellowRiver flood controlworks, includingheadworbs and mains,has rutheredthis development,albeit In a somewhatuneven fashion,as critcal driage facilitiesbelow the later stem(and sometimes below the branch) are inadequate. In 1987, of the 17.71-millionmu cultivatedarea, 11.56 millionmu were Irrigatedusing an estated 4.5 billionmn; 2 billionm' camefrom groundwater and 2.5 billion mnifrom YellowRiver diversions. The majorcrops are winterwheat, summer corn, cotton, oilseedsand paddy. Ite average1987 yields of thesecrops were: winterwheat, 3.6 tons/ha; corn, 4.4 tons/ha;cotton, 1.0 tons/ha;oilseeds, 2.0 tons/ha;and paddy,5.6 tons/ha. 2.63 Themajor industrial centrs in theregion include Zhengzhou, Kaifeng, Xinxiang, .,nyangand Puyang. However, there are alsoa numberof mid-sizedand smaller municipalities andthe largeZhongyuan oilflelds and relatedpetrochemical works near Puyang. Alsoproposed for this regionis the ewrabasin2 billionm3 M&ldiversion to Hebeiand Tianjin. eIon 7B: He-Bohal Sea 2.64 Thisregion incorporates that segmentof the alluvialplain of the YellowRiver lower reach, includingthe floodplain'suspended" between the main embankmentdikes, the Dawen River Basin, which enters the main stem throughDongping Lake, as well as areas outsidethe leveesfed by YellowRiver diversions, between the Henan-Shandongborder and the rivermouth. Thecatchment area of the regionis 14,932km 2 andtakes in 8 Shandongcounties. 2.65 Theregion is favoredwith a warmtemperate climate with a moderatemonsoon. Averagedaily temperatures range from a Januarylow of -41C to a highof 281 in July. Annual averagerainfl ranges from 600 to 800 mm, with about 55 percentoccurring in July and August. As In Region7A, there has been masive irrigationdevelopment in recent decades althoughin manyschemes critical drainage facilities below the laterals(and sometimesbelow the branch)are inadequate.Also as in Henan,water diversionfrom the river is carriedout by meansof sluicegates built under the massiveflood-protection dikes. Thereare 36 majorYellow River diversiongaes, S majorpumping stations and 11 siphonsalong the dikes betweenthe Shandongborder and the BohaiSea, witha combineddesign flow of 3,272m3/sec that serves 41 majorirrigation districts. Groundwaterextraction has grownsteadily in recentdecades; in 1987it reached5.6 billionm3.

2.66 In 1987,of the 53.1 millionmu cultivatedarea, 32.0 millionmu wereirrigated using an estImated12.6 billion m3; 5.3 billion mn were obtainedfrom groundwaterand 7.3 billionm3 fromYellow River diversions. The major crops are winterwheat, summer corn, cotton, oitseedsand paddy. The average1987 yieldsof these crops were: winter wheat, 3.5 tons/ba;corn, 4.4 tons/ha;cotton, 1.0 tons/ha; oilseeds, 2.0 tons/ha;and paddy, 5.7 tons/ha. 2.67 The majorindustrial centers include Jinan and Zibo. Thelarge Shenglioilfields and related petrochemicalworks are situatednear the river mouth. The major 50 r'/sec extrabasinM&I diversion to Qingdaocomes from this region'swater supply. .34-

3 WATER IN TEE REGIONALECONOM

A. AGRICuLTURALDEVELOMT

hrducdion 3.1 This chpter (a) highlightsthe importanceof YellowRiver water to the regional ecoomy as it contributesto agriculturalproduction, municipal and industri watersupplies, and eecticiy geion; Ob)attempts to este the economicres to water with particulat rdeen to rrigaion; and (c) examinesthe tradeoffs,or oppormnitycosts of usingwater for other purposesor in other parts of the country. These questionswill becomeincreasingly importa overtime given the ambitiousplans to expandirrigation from YellowRiver sources, to expd the numberof hydropowergenerating plants, and to divertwater to otheruses outside the basin. The answersmay alsoshed lighton the economicviability of proposedSouth-Nort wsatertransfr schemeswhich may eventuly augmentthe increasinglyshort Yellow River Basin war supplies. the Developmentof Ingption 3.2 In the past 40 years the rrigated area in the upper and middlereaches of he YellowRiver has morethan quadrupled,and on the lowerreach it Las increaseddramatically frm almostnothing to nearly2 millionha. However,this rapidirrigation development has been neithersteady nor certain. Early well-designedand careflly managedgrowth in regulating caacity during he 1950s(unfortumately not accompaniedby concomitantgrowth in drainage capabilities)was followedby Immoderate,ill-planned and uncontrolledexpansions in diversions duringthe GreatLeap Forward (1958-61). The massiveexpansion program quicldy collapsed, leadingto postwarChina's single largest agricultural castrophe. Duringthe 1960sthe hard lesons aboutwatedogging, salinization and silt managementwere widelydseminated, and IrIgationsystems were slowly restored to mid-1950slevels. In the past two decades,iuigatio has rapidly expandedas the introductionof a number of new agriculural and irrigation technologies-hgh-yieldcltiars, improved tubewell excavationtechologies, chemical f iers, etc.-have permittedexpansion into the remote,undeveloped regions of the upperand middlereah, andrapid gVowth In denselypopulated downstream regions. Unfortunately, his epansion nowdteatens to strainthe YellowRiver's water supply capabilities. Iigated Agricultureon the YellowRiver 3.3 There are over 110 major irrigationprojects controlling over 5.7 million ha scattz.edalog the nine provincesof the YellowRiver Basin (see Map 24549). Irigation dr_qukemetsvary considerablybecause of the wide variationin soil and hydrogeological conditions-conditionswhich have influenced the rate and extentof irrigationdevelopment in -35 - the basiL In the nordhwestand over a large part of the middlereach of the YellowRiver, where amnal rall is less than 400 mm, Irrigationis a prerequisitefor productionof any crops and Irrgion must supply over SW60percent of crop water consumption. In the north and nrtheast, includingthe North China Plain, where annual rainfallranges between 400 and 1,000 mm, riion needs vary both annmallyand seasonally,depending on the frequencyand severity of the monsoon. Thoughout the basin, but particularly in the alluvial lower reach plain rigationdistricts,drought-induced crop water deficitsduring critical growth periods may also be party offset by emergencyirrigation.

3.4 Irrigationtechnologies include: gravity-fedsurface diversions(with and without silt managementsystems) along the Great Bend of the Yellow River in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, along the two great YellowRiver tributaryvalleys-the Wei River Valley in Shaanxi and the Fen River Valley in Shami-and on the lower reach; high-lift(between 50 and 700 m) schemes, found primarilyin the LoessPlateau of Gansu, Ningxia,Shaanxi and Shaxi provinces; dhIsion/Morage/ift schemes,which predomite in gravity schemesin downstreamfringe areas of ShamdongPovince; conjunctiveirrigation systems;and tubewellirrigation systems.

D. CRop AREA, PRODuCToN, AND YIELs

3.5 In 1987, total cultivated (physical) area in the basin was esfimated to be 225 millIon mu, of which 98 million mu (44 percent) were irrigated. According to YRCC's comventonalwisdom, this irrigatedarea accountsfor between60 and 70 percent of total output, Implyingthat producwtv of irrigated land is about doublethat of rainfed land. The difference is explained pardy by the higher yields and partly by of the higher cropping intensities that irigation permits. Irrigation also permits switchesin croppingpatterns to higher valued CMps such as rice, fruits, and vegetables. World Bank project work in the basin typically estimes tha yields under fully irrigated conditionswill be at least double those of existing rainfed conditlons4/

3.6 As discussed below, irrigated agriculture accounts for most of the economic benefits obtaied fom the use of Yellow River water, and much of the developmentbudget is devoted in whole or in part to increasingthe provision of irrigation and/or making it more efficient. Tberefore it is important to this study that the above 'conventional wisdom' be quantiied to the extent possible. This is not an easy task given the manner in which data are reported. Whfle adequate staics are availablefor all agriculture in the basin, the irrigated portion is seldom separaed out in detail. Many data which are reported pertain to entire rvinc, not just the portions falling within the domain of the basin. Grain cultivationand producdon, which accounts for 77 percent of the total, typically is not disaggregatedby crop. Instead, productsas diverse as potates and milletare includedwith wheat and corn. In addition to wheat and corn, the only significantcrops which are irrigated are cotton and rice, the areas of which are small in comparison. This section concentates on wheat and corn, the major

11 For example,in the DoogleiII area of the ShaanxiAgriculunal Development Project, yields are calculatedto grow from100 kg/muunder curent rainfd conditionsto 253 kglmuwhen irigated underthe proect. Thecalcaos assumethat improvedvarieties and morecostly iputs wil be used wheniraon is itoduced. Wodd DankRepott No. 7475-CHA(March 1, 1989), esicted circulati. -36-

3.7 Table3.1 reportsseveral measures of physicaland croppedarea compiledby the regionaldelinaion used in this study. The 98 milion mu of irrigatedareas includeabout 32 millionmu of areas irrigatedby wells and othernon-Yellow River sources./ This study is mostconcerned with those areas served by YellowRiver waters, which are limitedto about 60 millionmu fullysupplied by surfacewater, and about7 millionmu whichare conjunctively suppliedby surfaceand groundwater.More than 126million mu are not irrigatedat present.

Table3.1: IRIUGATEDAREAS IN 1987 (millionmu)

Region Surface Conjunctive Groundwater Total Rainfed

1 0.17 0.17 0.97 2 3.33 0.06 3.39 11.26 3A 5.24 0.10 0.27 5.61 10.66 3B 8.79 0.79 1.32 10.91 17.93 4 3.63 0.03 0.65 4.31 16.15 5A 5.52 1.32 3.26 10.10 12.84 5B 12.74 3.08 15.82 29.65 6 2.29 0.82 1.59 4.70 7.34 7A 2.84 1.94 8.93 13.71 2.92 7B 15.37 2.20 12.09 29.66 16.56 Basin 59.92 7.20 31.25 98.38 126.28

3.8 Thefirst twocolumns of Table3.2 reporttwo measuresof aggregategrain yields availablefor 1987. 'YRCC' are reportedirrigated yields obtained by averaging,to the regional level,those reported by irrigationdistrict. tCounty* are the Impliedyields obtained by dividing toaproduction by totalsown area; i.e., countyis an aggregationover irrigated and nonirrigated land. Comparabledata on rainfedyields are not available. 3.9 In a separateexercise, we computed total Irrigated production based on the YRCC yields,and foundthat it wouldaccount for nearly all of reportedtotal production.For some regions,rainfed yieldswould have to be negativeto satisfythe tot productionconsistency check. In short,we were left with(a) irrigatedyields which are obviouslytoo high, and (b) no estimateof rinfed yields.3/ Thisproblem was temporarily resolved with a modelthat posed the question:What values of irrigatedand rainfedyields best fit the availabledata on totaland irrigatedyields, and produceconsistent totals of grainproduction by region? The results are presentedon the right side of Table 3.2 for wheat, corn, and aggregated'grains' (for comparisonwith YRCC and countydata.

Fffeuw well-rrigatedareais reported at nearly39 million mu, but only 31.25 were cultivated in 19W7.Tis sinexplicable.

3/ Whileit is tb idetyields for rinfed, pati, andful irrigaion he been stmaedfor svera Wodd Bankprojes in the basin, tes typicallyrefer to specific pret ares,and usualy are not epresetatve of the regions. -37 -

Table 3.2: GRAINYEDS, 1987 (kgmu)

Region Da"a rinsal ¢omte Irriated Comuted rainfed rigate/ YRCC County West Corn Grains Wbeat Corn crains taned

1 265 194 158 220 176 81 113 101 1.75 2 265 194 223 311 250 106 148 132 1.89 3A 300 292 163 228 187 78 109 95 1.97 3B 175 112 146 204 178 80 112 100 1.78 4 300 73 131 220 195 50 83 70 2.78 SA 370 175 173 290 260 92 155 130 2.00 SB 360 194 172 288 234 113 189 159 1.47 6 320 193 209 351 286 150 251 212 1.35 7 315 235 242 301 270 198 246 227 1.19

Source: YRCC, 'County Data', 1987and missioncomputions.

3.10 In all regions except 3B, the computed irrigatedgrain yields are less than YRCC's. In all regionsexcept Regions 1 and 3A, the computedirrigated yields are above(as expected)the aggregatedcounty yields, and in all regions except6, computedrainfed yields are lower (as expected)than the 'county' yields. The ratio of computedirrigated to computed rainfedyields is shownin the rightmostcolumn. The averageis 1.79. Thereis considerable variationin the ratio, whichis consistentwith the variationin rainfallthroughout the basin. In the drier upper and middlereaches, irrigatedyields averageabout twice ramfed. In the exceedinglydry Loess Plateau (Region 4), the ratiois almost3. However,in the lowerreaches, whichreceive significantly more rainll, the ratio is muchlower.

3.11 By combiningthese computedyields with the physicalarea data and our knowledgeof croppingpatterns and intensities,we can arrive at a consistentpicture of aricultural production. This is reportedin Table3.3 for 1990,the base year for this study. Table 3.3 assumesthe same irrigatedareas as in 1987, but assumesthat yields grew by 1.5 percent per year between 1987 and 1990. The total 1990grain productionthus estimated is 44.29million tons, whichdiffers from the 1987data of 42.41 millionby the growthfactor. 3.12 Of the total estimatedgrain production,30.28 million tons, or 68.4 percentis obtainedfrom irrigatedland of all types, which is within the YRCC's expectedrange of 60-70percent. Areas irrigatedsolely by surface water account for 18.74million tons, 61.9 percentof all irrigatedproduction, and 42.3 percentof all production.If conjunctiveuse areas are added, we can begin to see the impactof YellowRiver water-it accountsfor 47.7 percentof all grainproduction in the basin.

C. BENEFITs OF IRRIGATION World Bank Project Estlmates

3.13 Baselinedata derived from recent World Bank projects in the basinpermit a rough esfimateof the incrementalbenefits from irrigation. Table 3.4 showsnet economicreturns per mu and per day of labor for rainfed,partily irrigated,and fullyirrigated land in fiveproject -38-

Table 33: PRODUcIIO DYlRRGnaTN UY WATE SOURCES (millo tons) leigo ibht co, Cott= Pa4dy Gtral

(a) Sorttc Voter Aea Prodctuto

1 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 2 0.34 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.87 3A 0.63 0.50 0.00 0.09 1.22 35 0.67 1.13 0.00 0.00 1.80 4 0.15 0.67 0.00 0.00 0.82 SA 0.30 2.03 0.02 0.00 2.32 53 1.37 2.69 0.17 0.00 4.06 6 0.30 0.59 0.02 0.02 0.91 7A 0.50 0.5S8 0.07 0.05 1.13 75 2.53 3.05 0."8 0.00 5.58 Sasm 7.02 11.56 0.45 0.17 18.74

(b) CoQJuaotivUse At" froduetios 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 0.Q0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3A 0. 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 3B 0.05 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.14 5A 0.06 0.44 0.00 0.00 0.50 6 0.10 0.19 0.01 0.01 0.30 7A 0.31 0.36 0.04 0.03 0.70 73 0.33 0.39 0.06 0.00 0.72

SasIn 0.86 1.48 0.11 0.04 2.38

(a) GroundwaterAra Pgodotlo 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 3k 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.05 35 0.08 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.22 4 0.02 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.12 5A 0.14 0.96 0.01 0.00 1.10 55 0.27 0.52 0.03 0.00 0.79 6 0.17 0.33 0.01 0.01 0.51 7A 1.27 1.46 0.16 0.12 2.85 7B 1.59 1.92 0.30 3.51 Bacln 3.58 5.45 0.51 0.13 9.16 (4) RaiE ed Are Produ4tlo 1 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.08 2 0.75 0.45 0.00 0.00 1.20 3A 0.48 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.86 3S 0.58 0.80 0.00 0.00 1.38 4 0.20 0.88 0.00 0.00 1.08 5A 0.26 1.29 0.02 0.00 1.54 55 1.18 2.27 0.17 0.00 3.45 6 0.39 0.75 0.02 0.00 1.13 7A 0.23 0.27 0.03 0.00 0.49 75 1.30 1.50 0.19 0.00 2.80 Ba d 5.40 8.61 0.43 0.00 14.01

... Cobwed -39-

Table 33 (condtiued)

Region Whsat Corn Cotton Padty GralD

(e) Total IrrIgate4 teodietim 1 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03 2 0.55 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.88 3k 0.67 0.53 0.00 0.09 1.29 35 0.80 1.36 0.00 0.00 2.16 4 0.17 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.94 SA 0.50 3.43 0.03 0.00 3.92 53 1.64 3.21 0.20 0.00 4.U3 6 0.57 1.11 0.04 0.04 1.72 7A 2.08 2.40 0.27 0.20 4.68 7B 4.45 5.36 0.84 0.00 9.81 Basln 11.46 18.49 1.37 0.34 30.28 (f) Crand 5Ota1 Psoduetie 1 0.07 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.11 2 1.31 0.78 0.00 0.00 2.08 3A 1.14 0.91 0.00 0.09 2.15 33 1.38 2.15 0.00 0.00 3.53 4 0.37 1.65 0.00 0.00 2.01 SA 0.75 4.71 0.04 0.00 5.47 51 2.82 5.48 0.37 0.00 8.30 6 0.96 1.85 0.06 0.04 2.85 7A 2.31 2.67 0.29 0.20 5.18 73 5.75 6.86 1.03 0.00 12.61 baein 16.86 27.09 1.79 0.34 44.29 (g) IrrLSatd Productios ag r *rcut of Total Produetlo 1 28.1 28.0 0.0 0.0 28.1 2 42.4 42.0 0.0 0.0 42.3 3A 58.1 58.5 0.0 100.0 60.1 33 58.0 63.0 0.0 0.0 61.1 4 46.3 46.6 0.0 0.0 46.5 5A 66.2 72.6 57.2 0.0 71.8 53 58.3 58.5 53.9 0.0 58.5 6 59.6 59.7 68.8 100.0 60.3 7A 90.1 90.1 90.3 100.0 90.5 73 77.4 78.1 81.5 0.0 77.8 Basin 68.0 68.2 76.3 100.0 68.4

areas.&IOn average,the introductionof partial rigat rai conomicproductivit of land about 44 percent,and a switchfrom pardal to full Irrigationresul In a furer gain of about 54 percent A projectthatfdlly krigatesland that is curetldyraned, and obtainsthe average yields prevailing under fully irrigated conditions,therefore increases returns by about 80 percent-whichis consistentwith our estmat of irdigatedyields being about 1.79 times rainfedyields. 3.14 If we extrapolatethese numbes to the basin level using the physicalaea desenbedin theprevious secdon, assuming that half of currentlyirrigated land Is -partial, and halfis "full,"total curren returns to cropproduction from Table 3.4 amountto Y 29.47billion,

JI In dhs eawcue, prc wor updaed to currnt leels, but physw Inpt e.ndouet wrn ted . - 40 -

Table 3.4: RrURNS TO IRRIGATiON

fiet valuelmu (Y2 Return t labor (Y7dav) Area Region Wheat Corn I^ Cotton Whea Corn Cotton

Present Rtanted

Gansu 2 108 0 - 9.2 0.0 - Loess 4 133 5 - 12.4 0.8 - Shsaaxi 5B 122 13 127 11.5 2.1 8.9 Henan 7A 143 13 280 12.2 1.2 11.2 Shandong 75 187 26 406 18.2 2.5 16.1

Average 139 11.4 271 12.7 13.2 12.1

Present Partially Irrigated

Gansu 2A 180 1 - 15.0 0.1 - Looos 4 249 41 - 19.7 5.0 - Shaanx. SD 229 66 322 18.1 8.0 17.1 Henan 7A 155 15 342 13.0 1.4 13.4 Shandong 73 219 36 437 21.4 3.5 17.3

Average 206 31.6 367 17.4 3.6 15.9

Present Fully Irrigated

Gansu 2A 246 8 - 18.4 0.7 - Looss 4 320 26 - 22.0 2.0 - Shaanxi 5B 284 53 530 19.0 4.0 27.0 Henan 7A 267 44 576 20.1 3.7 20.6 Shandong 7B 247 40 436 23.7 3.8 18.0

Average 273 34 514 20.6 2.8 21.9 a Economicprice of cornassmed in SAR arelow because corn was assumed to be exported.

OrY 355 per memberof the 1987agricultural population of 83 million. If we assumeno irrigation,i.e., that all landproduces the returnsshown under wrainfed,* then the totalvalue is Y 16.65billion, or only Y 200 per capita. Thedifference, of Y 12.82billion, may thus be attibutedto irrigation. In 1987,a totl of 49.5 billionm' wasdiverted from the YellowRiver and pumped from groundwater.1I Averageeconomic returns to this watermay thus be calculatedfas 12.82149.S= 26 fen/m?.

Grs divesioaswet 35.35billion andgross Srundwater pumpng wa 14.13bilion Xi no. see AUK2 (Hdrlo) for details. -41 -

3.15 In Table3.5 we notedthe inremena wate requremenuper mu umed by the projectandalysis, and computedthe Incrementalnet retu per in'. Averagingover rp, th switch fom rainf to pardal irrigationproduces a return of about 62 fen, and about 108fenin' whenpartal irrigadoni convertedto full. Notethat thes figuresare Intraginal, and not retns at the margin. However,they do permita prelimnry conclusion:it appears more economicto use additionalwater fist to fullyWgate exisingpartdlly Irriae lantdt to partally irigate exist rainfedland. Table 3.5: INCREMNALVALUE OF WATU

Water reautieoentfm3 ni) Partial Pu1l pheat gm Gotto 'Wheat Cr ott

Gsnsu 2A 90 70 - 210 90 - Loess 4 129 58 - 334 207 - Shsanxi 5B 129 58 152 334 207 386 Ronan 7A 90 70 60 210 90 120 Shandong 7B 150 60 60 210 90 120 In_ __creme_nalvslue (fenIu$) Rainfedto 2artial P-rtil to full Wheat GM Cotton Wheat gm Cgtton

Gansu 2* 80 1 - 55 36 - Loese 4 90 61 - - - - Shasanzi SB 83 91 128 - - - Henan 7A 14 4 103 93 144 390 Shandong 75 22 17 52 46 13 -1 Average 58 35 94 65 65 195

Basin-LvelModd Eltimates

3.16 Ihe project-specifficanalysis used to arive at the abovevalues is undoubtedly pr tDaggretion ror becase there i no inherenon why the six particularprojects shouldbe rerentative of the entre basin. On the other band,the basin4evelmodel LM) wasdesigned to be just tha: a consistency-ercing toolfor all kdgatedagriculture. Table 3.6 reportsan experimentwith the BLMunder whih we assmed that all areas currentlyirrigated by ae watersddenly revertedto rainfedconditions, i.e., wecut off YellowRiver irrigation suppliesso that onlythe rinfed yieldsof Table3.2 wereattainable. Costswere also reduced to levelsroughly corresponding to thoseunder *presentrainfed" In Table3.4. 3.17 The first columnof Table 3.6, "with irrigationusummarizes the 1990BLM simulationsfor the P50fi inflow case irrigated with surface water which produces Y 25.63billion of grossoutput, obtains Y 19.40billion of valueadded, and 18.64million tons of grainoutput(recil fromTable 3.3 iat his figurewas estimated t be 18.74in 1990). MTe

fil PSOindics thevw for Rawwhich would be equad or e_eed withSO peae probility. -42 -

Table3.6: RnM TO IRGATION

With All Item Irrigation rainfed Difference

Value production (billion Y) 25.63 16.52 9.11 Value production/au (Y) 427 275 152 Value added (billion Y) 19.40 11.69 7.71 Valueadded/mu (Y) 323 195 128 Grain output (a/tone) 18.64 11.04 7.60

Diversiones (billion m!) 32.42 VP/US fen 28.10 VAImSfen 23.80 Grainr/S (kg) 0.23

Source: DM 1990, PSO.

columntiod a1granfed" isthe torst of ft exaperiment.The difference between the two may be atrbutedto theeffec of YellowRh- .1 water,which accounts for Y 9.11billion of ouput, Y 7.71billion of valueadded, and 7.60 ,idlion tons of grainoutput. In thebottom part of the table,the resul ar dividedby the tota (gross)diversions of 32.32billion in. Thuseach cubic metera 28 fenof production,Y 23.8of valueadded, and 0.23 kg of gain. The 23.8fen tigureis comprableto the 26 fni obtainedfrom Table 3.4 (para.3.14), but wasobtained froma constent frameworkunder a controlledexperiment.2/ Thds 23.8 fen/in figureis the crrent bestestmate of averae retur to Irrigationwater and is used laterto derivethe total bnefit fromYellow River water.

Marginal Valueof Waten CropWater Ste Analysis

3.18 A more sophistcat tecique for arriving at the marginal value of water in Irrigation involves examinin h impactof caop watr stress at the margin. There are several aprache availblofor this, but themost popula and mt widelytested is thatproposed by the Food nd AgriculturalOrnion (PA) and adoptedfor the basin-levelmodel used inthis study.1/ Simplysated, adbievedcaop yield rative to maximumobinable crop yieldis a fnction of the chieved o anspilraton2/ relative to themaximum ev iration. lhe keyparameter Inthe functon is d 'ky cfacor,which can be inwpretedas the elastcity of yieldresponse to irrigation. In the BLMand in the analysisused here, the potent stress

V/ it is nat urprisingthat the DiM-derived figur. is lowerthan the pioject-derivedfigure: Ares selctd for irigato prqject pumably hv highe potenti for s fiom dh nroductan of tRiOf du &veng.

IV Th tchniqu are dscibed in dea in PAO Ykld Repoxw t Waw, Rme, 1979, and summdud in Annex 6-The Basi-Level Model. 2/ B is th volumeof wte utl by th mespty proces of plnts -43 - peiod b confied to a single growth stae, usually in the spriAgmonths of Marchto June when irigaton water is often In short supply.

Table 3.7: MAIGD 4 VALE OF WAT N IRNGAMTaN

_Ouput effect(kl*Ims Value effect (Jenlye) Region Wheat Corn Cotton JA Wheat Corn Cotton

1 1.00 1.00 - 139 97 - 2 1.20 1.13 - 167 108 - 4 0.42 0.97 - 59 93 - 3A 0.77 1.28 - 104 119 - 3B 0.71 1.46 - 92 127 - SA 0.68 1.47 0.21 85 118 200 51 0.71 1.12 0.15 92 96 147 6 0.92 1.20 0.11 115 97 108 7A 1.55 1.24 0.18 192 100 178 7B 0.90 1.21 0.17 112 97 166 Basin 0.88 1.21 0.17 113 102 164

L&Amounts in Regin 3B ar not significant.

Source: Mison computaio based on FAO op. cit.

3.19 Table 3.7 reorts the ge Incrop yield per unit change inwater applied at the marin, and the change in economic value of output per cubic meter of war. At the margin, ncreasng or deasing dte water supplied to wheat rults In a 0.88-kg change in yield and a 3 113-fen chg in value of output. The respoe Is sdigy greater for corn (1.2 kghn ) but the ecomic effect Is smalle becae of com's lower price. For cotton, the yield resonse Is low at 0.17, but the offect on output value b very large at 164 fen/ni.

3.20 Weighting thes margina values by the shars of water supplied to each crop results in an ave margi value of water of 111 fen/mni. Note that this figure is a gross value becas cos do not enter the calculations.Q/Their meag Is the following: If a cubicmeter of Ir on watorb divertedaway fom Irrigationa thefeld, then the econmic loss, brough boutby a reductionIn cropyields will be 111 fe. At iheriver, ot valueis consideaby less becau of distribution losses. Basin-wide, these are about 55 percent, Implying that the value of water measued atthe river I SO fi. Te implic&ton of this nmber i that, ffan additionaldivasion of Yelow River wat duing the mos crtical to Irrigation (March-June) is contempltd, t economic reto that diveraion should be greter than 50 len/n?.

31, It asasiumed thot farmes cannt predictwate ahwtupand dherfore underak, normal plantig cosaeach yeaw. -44'

Water Valuevs. Water Charges 3.21 Thus far we have seen that averagenet rens to irrigationwater are about 24 fen/m3,but in the cAticalmonths, the marginalreuns are about50 fen/m3. It Is usefulto comparethese valueswith what farmersor other water users actuallypay for water. Ihe 50 fenlmerepresents the marginalrent value for shortage. Anyadditional water taken from the river duringthe springseason will have an opporuity cost of 50 fen/m3. In orderto ensure that farmersuse water efficiendyit importantto chargefarmers a portionof the barginal rent. Ihe portionof this marginalrent thatusers haveto pay willdepend very muchon the shareof public and privatebenefits. Publicbenefits are not attributableto any specificuser. For exampleIn the YellowRiver almost38 percentof the waterIs allocatedfor sedimentflushing whosebenefits are not attributableto any speciflcuser. The opportunitycost of maintaining 24 billion rnYyearflows for silt flushingis 37 fen/m' and 22 fenlm3 for 22 billionm'.ll/ If 22 to 24 billionm 3 flows are to be maintainedannually for silt flushingthen the portion marginalrent for shortagethat farmersand other privateusers shouldpay shouldbe 13 to 28 fm' or 26 to 56percn of the totalrent. Apartfrom the marginalrent, users will have to pay for the costof supplyingwater-costs of abstraction,operations and maintenance,and costs of exernalities,i.e., waterusers willhave to pay: Costsof Exralcon (capitaland O&M) + Percentof Margin Rentfor Shortage. 3.22 Presendya varietyof servicecharge mechanisms are employed,ranging from deliverySwarges for M&I and Irrigation,power tariff, block pricing for M&I, volumetric charges,payment in kindschemes, agricultural or othertaxes, supplemental income from sources other ta the primary water service, implicit taxation through price manipulationin procurement,commutation of cwges into labor duties, etc. In principle,water chargesto differentusers are assessedwithin a unifiedframework, with price discimination related to the levelof serviceprovided, reliability, timing, natre of end-use(including whether or notthe end- use is planmed),as wellas to socialequity Issues. A numberof provinceshave linked irrigation waterdharge collections explicitly to tax or other fee payments.All the fees andtaxes collected relateto costsof extractionand supplyof water. 3.23 Tne principleof paymentfor service requires that entitiesat each level of operationspay the watersupplier at a higherlevel. In the case of irrigation,the countywater resource(or tax bureau)agency collects irrigation charges at rates that in principlecover both its own O&M costs and the paymentsto the river administration(the water wholesalerand conveyanceentity) for waterreceived at the countyborder. The river administaon meetsits own costsand paysthe agencywhich operates the mainsupply facilities-the provincial Water ResourcesBureau (WRB) or YRCC. If billingsdo not meetall costs,the countygovernment (or in some cases the provincialgovernment) makes up the differenceor the countywater resourceagency goes intoarears. In principle,these decentralized water charges go to offset waterdelivery costs, and reflect conditions in the dver concerned.Assessment levels have been too low, thoughrecently some provinces have increased rates. Thus, enties at everylevel are encouragedto lookfor additionalsources of income;e.g., fisherylicensing, power generation, tree mnurseriesand tourismat reservoirs.

WV As computedby te DLM. -45-

3.24 Deteminingthe currentlevel of irrigadonwater chargeson the Yelo0wRiver Basinis not straightforward;methods of assmnt vary widelythroughout the basin, and typicallyinvolve a fied co per mu of lan irrigated,plus a variablecost associat withthe volumeof waterdiverted. Often,the coststructu variesaccording to the sourceof water,e.g., whetherfrom gravity canals or liftpumps. For someregions, fee structuresare not known. In others,additional fees are imposedfor warping. In still others,admistrative fees mayadd as much as 80jercent to the farer's total water bill.12/ In Table3.8 we attemptto simplify these rates, and convertthem to a volumetricbasis. The calculationsIgnore the waping charges,if any, anl the administativesurcharges.

Table 3.8: ESrlMATEDIRRIGAnIN WATR CHAGES

Total Region Fixed cost Variable cost cost (Y/mu) (m,Xiiu) (Pen/rn) (YIl,OOOm') (Pen/m') (Pen/W)

Gansu 2 1.00 279 0.36 1.0 0.10 0.46 unner Mongolia 3B 0.50 351 0.14 16.5 1.65 1.79 Shanxi 5A 1.10 221 0.50 40.0 4.00 4.50 Shaanxi SB 0.35 296 0.12 7.5 0.75 0.87 Henan 7A 1.80 253 0.71 5.5 0.55 1.26 Shandong 7B - 235 - 28.0 2.80 2.80

3.25 inthe *fIxed cost' part of the Table 3.8, the yuan per mu charges areconverted to fen/m' according tothe average waterrequirements per mu. In the second section, the variable costs inyuan/l,000 mn are convertedto fen/m' (where a rage of rates applies to a givenprovince, the averagewas used) and the sumappears In the rightmostcolumn. The results rangefrom less than one fen in Gansuto 4.5fen in Shanxi. 3.26 Evenconsidering the possibilitythat some of theserates are understated,it is clear that irrigatorshave beenpaying only a fractionof the valueof water. Tbismay be justifiable on ability-to-paygrounds, given tat YellowRiver farmers are amongthe lowestincome groups in China. But it Is a policy whichmay require reexaminaonwhen water suppliesbecome scarce. It is also intertg to notethat there appears to be a corelationbetween water charges and regionalscarcities, even at present: In Region2, irrigats are positionedto take as much wateras neededwithout concen for potentialdownstream shortages. Water charges there ar the lowest. In the Fen Valleyof Shamd,options are limted (and epensive) for importig YellowRiver water, and seasonal shortages are oftenacute. Watercharges there are the highest. The implicationis thataiirs are willingto dhargomore, and farmersare willingto pay more, whenwater is obviouslyscarce.

3.27 Althoughthere appearsto be considerablescope for demandmanagement of th irrigationsector through water pricing-water fee levels are a facion of the average(and

1V SeeA, 3 (Agricultre)for a morecomplet discussion. -46 - marginal)ren to waterand bothmanagers and farmersrecognize the valueof salrcit-some caudonabout the potentialof waterpricing for inducingconservation should be mainind. 3.28 Ite problemsconcern the extent to which water fees are relatedto system performance. UnAforunately,a study of YellowRiver water pricingwhich mighthave lent insightinto the wiingness of farmersto pay for irrigationwater is not yet complete.1,UAn earlieranalysis of Beijingwaer pricingschemes is highlycritical of the generaillevel of water prices, the pricing structure,and the basis of water rationing,point out that there are a number of inconsistenciesand hidden subsidies in Chinese irigation water pricing schemes.J& Many local managerson the basin are reluctantto burden farmers with increasesin waterfees, especily whenfees are basedon prvincial cost aggrgt ad not local estmates of farm costs. Someregions have not Implementedthe fee reforms,A or havy kept fee levelsbelow mandatedlevels.Il MWResdmaes that assessedagdicul watercharge levels in 1988(excluding projects managed by collectvesor InAividualsbdow the townshiplevel) were only 40 percentof nationalstandards.lll And in some basin aras waterfees havebeen diverted to covernonwater resource needs and provincialWRBs have not preventedsuch misuse.jl To the extentthat farmersare askedpay the costs of past policy failuresand excesses,pay costsin excessof irrigationbenefits, pay for waterthat they do not receive,or to pay for systemO&M that is never carriedout, farmersare likelyto resist fee hikes. 3.29 A numberof obstaclesremain to be clearedbefore water pricingcan become a vey effectve managementinstrument. Nevertheless, it is fairlyclear that: (a) The present water pricing frameworkdoes provide a rational basis for discriminatigamong resource users basedon the levelof serviceprovided, for ensuringthat service agenciesare financiallyautonomous. Priorlty shouldbe givento establishingappropriate insuional structes reflectingthe utiity fom where these are absent. Ard service cbarges, inoroating the partlar characteristc of the irrigationsector, should seek to be consistentin reflecting the levelof serviceprovided. Ihis pricingfamework should be implementodby 1997so tht thaereis full cost recoveryof the existingsevces; and,

121 TheYelow Riverwat picing monograpicstudy cmsonod underthe Yeow Rive Wa ResourseEconoic ModelingSudy. I4/ BeijingInstie of Environmt Protection,1988, &udy of WateraR unw andP}ing. IV In Shandongoly onethir of prefectresand municipalitiesactuy prmulgaed1t 1987fee hikes,'Shandong Water Resowue Poject WaterFee Collection and Management Mebods, op cit. /I Sl_dog madated reservoir-fedirkigadon water fees at Y O.031n';in fact prfec l asesed resetviinigated wawt feeswer Y 0.0034-0.024/ni,provincial Yellow Rivar diversionirrigdion water fee levelswere set at Y O.028/md,prefecuWal levels were Y 0.01630.0223/s,ibid.

1V Howeve, eathad the MWRstandards include dpeciatio M In Smnakmg,Heo Prefct buassin 1987diverted a wate feesowing from th YelowRiver diversionsto cer nonwaterfinancial shorfalis, ibid, p. 3. -47 -

(b) Overthe longerterm (sayby year 2000),pricing should rflect boththe cost of servicesand also a portion(30-50 percen) of the marginalrent for shortag and externalities.Introducing the marghal rent In the pricingstructure duig the water shortseason will begin to instilldiscipline into water use amongstfrmers andother users. It willalso bringabout demand management. Equity of supply to the poorestin the basinmay be accomplishedby appropriateallocadt of policies. 3.30 A intercountrycomparison of watercharges and opportunitycosts indica hat onlysome places in the worldhave charges that comeclose to the oppormity costs.Table 3.9 Indicatesthat three out of the five placesconsidered had very low water chargescompared to opportuty costs of water. The onlycases with water chargeswhich were comparable to the opprunity costs are in Caliornia in the MetropolitanDistrict and the State Waer Ptoject whichbave water for urbanand industryor for bighvalued crops. Table3.9: INtEtCoUNmYCOMIAasoN OF PRICES (UScIms)

Water Marginal Opportunity price costs costs

Yellowliver 87 JI 0.5 3.0 9.9 ellovwRiver 92 j. 1.6 3.0 9.9 Centralvalley /c 0.3 3.3 14.6 StateWater a 11.7 11.7 14.6 Net. Water Distr./¢ 14.1 14.1 14.6 Victoria(Australia) I4 0.9 3.6 12.0

Basedon BLM calculations. & Basedon recentShaani AgriculuralDevelopment Project Supervision. Calfnia Systems: WorldBank Tochnical Paper 198by J.R. Teernik,et al. Ld Vioria Rua WaterAnnud Report, 1988.

D. MUMCIPALAND INDUSnAL USE MunidpalWater Supply and Demand

3.31 1n 1987, 1.39 billion m' of water was consumedby municipalresidents and rura householdswithin the basinand in YellowRiver diversion areas along the lowerreaches. To meet thes needs, 863 millionm 5 of surfacewater werediverted (with delivery efficiency of 58 pecent) and 1.4 billionme of groundwaterwere extracted(with 63 percentefficiency). A lot of the watr is wasted;24 percentof the totalconsumptive demands of municipaland rural resi was met with delivery efficienciesunder 48 percenL The reaches betwe Longyania ad Lazhou and betweenSanmenxia and Huayuankouappear t offertho most promisefor consevao, the formerwith regardto al sources and uses, and the ltr for municipaluses. However,improved conservation In municipaland ruri residenal use is -48- unlikelyto have a major impacton basin-wideshortages because tot diverions for residendal use are lessthan 5 percentof all diversions. 3.32 Averageper capitadaily residential water consumption In the ten majorcities in the basinIs about 180 liters; however,there Is considerablevariation in urban consumption. Luoyanguses 281 liters dailypar person,while Baoji, Ylnchuan and Baotouresidents manage with only 100 liters. Thesedifferences depend primarily on city size, water source, living standards,and watermanagement, with the highestlevels reflecfing severe water waste due to leakagesin the systemand unaccountedfor water due to lack of propermetering. Per capita daily residentialwater consumptionin countytowns Is estimatedto be about40 liters,mosdy fromgroundwater.l2/ Total basin-wide diversions to municipalitiesin 1980were 603 million m3, of which 340 millioner were from groundwater. Consumptionwas 181million en, of wbichgroundwater comprised 102 million rm?.

MunicipalWater Supply and Cbarges 3.33 Municipalwater consumption over about 116 cities in thebasin totaled 1.37 billion m3(120 litersper capita)in 1980,and wasestimated to be 1.60 billionin' (1331 per capita)in 1990,a growthrate of 2.1 percent. Abouthalf of the total was suppliedfrom groundwater. Diversionsfrom the YellowRiver for municipalsupply amounted to 0.8 billionmin in 1987. Within-basinmunicipal water demand is not now, and is not likelyto become,significant in the entire water supply-demandpicture. Existingtariffs for municipalwater range from 20 to 31.8 fen/m3,which includes a substantialcomponent for treatmentcosts, ranging from 18.5to 35.3 fenlm'. Subtractingtreatment costs from tariffs yields an averagecharge of just over S fen/ln-only slightlyabove the maximumcharges paid by irrigators. It has been calculated that tariffswhich just cover capitaland operatingcosts of supplyunder 1992conditions are 31 fen/m'. However,these costsdo not includean opportunitycost component. IndustrialWater Demand 3.34 Industriawater use on the YellowRiver Basinis centeredin severalprovincial capitalsand a few majorindustrial and miningcenters, located primarily on the Longmento Sanmenxiareach and secondarilyon the Lanzhouto Hekouzhenreach. Together,industrial water use on thesetwo reachesaccounted for 63 percentof all basin-wideindustrial water use in 1987. Prioritiesin water allocationare establishedas: coalfieldconstruction and thermal powerstations; urban areas near the river;water-short areas in Beijing,rianjin andHebei; water neededto flush sedimentand, finally, irrigation. The mineral-richYellow River Basin is consideredto be an 'energybase." It contains46 percentof nationalcoal deposits, 48 percent of nationalbauxite resources, 26 percentof China'soil, and 96 percentof China'srare earth resources. Thecoal depositsare mainlylocated along the middlereach of the YellowRiver in Ningxia,Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxiprovinces (44 percentof nationaldeposits). The oil is spreadabout the lowerreach and the river mouthin Henanand Shandongprovinces. 3.35 IndustrWsurface water demandwas 2.79 billionm' in 1980,was projectedat 4.73 billionin in 1990,and 6.79 billionnil. Suchuse constitutes the fastest-growingcomponent of all YellowRiver water demands. Industrial water tariffs range from 20 fenlm'to 60 fen/m'

12/ Tbsissbead on county=^Vs dan in Yam Pfctau in Smaxi. -49-

Table 3.10: M&I DEMAMNs,1980-2000

1980 1990 2000

Municipal supply (billionmn) 1.37 1.60 1.79 Growth rate (Z) 1.6 1.1

Industrial supply (billionen) 2.79 4.73 6.79 Growth rate (2) 5.4 3.7

Output value (billion yuan) 57.93 119.28 247.62 Reuse rate (2) 28.6 63.5 75.9 Output/water (yuan/rn) 21 25 36

Source: UtiAdon Study, 1987. Industrial output value has been convertedto 1990 yuan.

but output value per cubic meter, shown in the bottom of Table 3.10, is about 50 times these levels.

E. HYDROELEUrCCPOWER

3.36 Eight YellowRiver hydropowerplants have been completed,one large multiyear store reservoir (Longyangxia),one large annual storage reservoir (Liujiaxia)and two run-of- river power plants (Yanguoxiaand Bapanxia)on the upstreamreaches above the HeishanGorges in Gansu and Qinghai, and three run-of-riverplants (Qingtongxia,Tianqiao and the mainlysilt- filled Sanmenxia)reservoir on the upper and middle reaches. Together, all these plants have an insalled capacity of about 3,660 MW and an averageannual energy capabilityof 17,750GWh, represening about 16.3 percent and 22.3 percent, respectively, of the basin's hydropower poteuia.

Demand for Energy

3.37 The hydropower generated at the various projects will be fed into one of the followinggrids:

* Northwest China power network (NWPN), which covers Qinghai, Gansu, and Shaanxiprovinces and the Ningxia autonomousregion

* North China power network (NCPN), which covers Shanxi and Hebei provinces

* Central China power network(CCPN), which covers Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces

The following load demand data Crable 3.11) were obtainedfrom published information. -50-

Table 3.11: ELWTnRUCALENERGY DEMAND GRIDS

UWPR NCPN CCPN Peak Energy Peak Energy Peak Energy Load Genorated Load Generated Load Generated Year NW Gwh MW ouh MW Cwb

1988 5,250 35,218 10,632 82,499 10,040 82,735 1989 5,990 40,708 12,600 88,141 10,800 90,125 1990 69450 43,056 13,280 97,589 10,950 96,654

3.38 Ihe peak load nmbers in the abovetable are thoseat the consumerlevel, i.e., excludinglosses, whereasthe energygenerated numbers are at the generationlevel, i.e., indudingsystem losses and consumptionby plant auxiliaries.From informatoncontad in Xh Yashi themal power projectappraisal report,2Q/ it is evidentthat the lossesincluded in the enery generatedvalue in the table aboveare of the order of 22.9 percent No detaied demandforcasting was carriedout for the systemsdue to the limitedamount of time and infm tion avable. However,for the needs of the present study, load forecastswere developedfor each of the grids assumingconservative growth rates of 5 percentand 7 percent per year. Ihe 7 percentgrowth rate wasadopted which is in line withthe SPCforecast used in dhecoa ruspot study.I In addition,adjustments were madeto grdually reducethe loss to 15 percentand to attaina systemload factor of about70 percent,this being a typical valuefor a systemnot constrainedby supply.

Thema PowerAltertive

3.39 in tem of guaranteedpower, the thermalaltenaive is valuedat 36.6 fen/lkWh baed on the long-runmargin cost of powerdevelopment. For secondarypower, the valueis equalto the fuel displacementvalue, i.e., 4.6 fenlkWh. Thesevalues, 36.6 fen/MWhand 4.6 fm/Wh, reprsent the avoidedcost if thermal is displacedby hydro. In terms of wDIngns to pay for hydropowerbased as averagetariffs being levied on newpower projects at presentin the basin, the incrementalenergy could be valuedat 24.6 fen/kWhrather than 4.6 fe/Wh.

3.40 Basedon recentstudies also undertakenfor the XiaolangdiMultipurpose Dam Projectin Henan,the willingnessto pay for peak loadenergy is estimatedat 36 fen/kWh,and for ba loadenergy, 4.6 fen/kWh.

2a *Qiiw Yanshi hennal Power Staffamai Rport, December1,1991, Repot No. 10201- Cnt

Wy Oadiu CoalTnwport Study, -Sector Rqp (WhiteCover), June 1992 -S1 -

Hydrolic Powr Generation 3.41 Table3.12 eportshydropower output for eachexisting major mr voir and nm- of-ier pt on the Yelow River as simulatedby the BLM, which pemits differia on of base and peak load outut (the column"data b the publishedavrage annualoutput of these plants). AUtold, the Yelow Riverproduces about 18,000GWh of energyIn an averageyear, and its value,In termsof willnes to pay, Is aboutY 2.45 billion.

Table 3.12: HvRoiowER GENEATONON TE YELLOWR REa (GWhlyear)

Facility Bass load Peak load Total Data /s

Resemrv r

Longyangxia 4,096 1,800 5,896 5,980 Liujiaxia 4,096 1,794 5,890 5,850 sanmnuxia 785 390 1,175 1,310

Total reservoirg 8.977 3.984 12.961 13.05Q Value (billionyuan) 0.45 1.43 1.84

Run-of-RiverPlant Yunguoxi 1,664 555 2,219 2,050 Dapanuta 704 234 939 1,0S0 Qitgtongxia 830 277 1,107? Tianqiso 494 165 659 610 Total run of river 3692 1.231 4.924 Value (billionyru) 0.17 0.44 0.61 Total hydro value 0.58 1.87 2.45 la Publishedaverage anmnaltotals. Soce: BLM 1990,P50. Baseload energy valued at 4.6 fenAkWh;peak loadat 36.

eg-krgatIon Tmdeoffs

3.42 Hydroproduction is uniquein thatIt does not consdtutea consumptiveuse of water, the war disaged from Longyapia may stfillbe used repeatedlydownsteam to produc electricity at other plants, or it may be divertedto other uses without loss of energy at longyanpia. The conmerseis not true: a unit of waterdiverted to irrigationor any otheruse wMnot be availabledownsam, eitherfor irrigationor for energyproduction. This fact gives riso toan opportunitycost of water oftenoverlooked in decision-making. -52 -

3.43 In Table3.13, we atempt to estimatethis opportunitycost. 'ne first columnis the valueof the energyoutput at eachplant per cubicmeter of waterat basoload willingness-to- payrates of 4.6 fen/kWh.lTus a cubicmeter discharged through Longyangxia produces 1.7 fen wordhof energy. The differencesin the magnitudesof the values over plants is mostly due to the differencesin heads. The sum of the first column(4.5 fen) representsthe total valueof energyproduced by 1m? passed through the entirelength of the river. Theforegone energy per cubicmeter diverted at the regiongiven in the column'Offtake is givenin the column'Energy Loss,"and dependsupon where the regionis locatedrelative to the powerplants. Region1 is situatedabove Longyangxia, so thata diversionthere results in an energyloss from all the plants on the river. Region2's offtake is just belowLongyangxia, so its loss is 3.0 fen/lm, etc. Diversionbelow Samemxia, the last plantcurrently on the river, has a zeroenergy opportunity cost.

Table 3.13: ENIRGYOPORTUNITY Coer OF DVmSINs

Offtake Energy lse8 Dam-slte Energy value at regions downstream (fen/m') (fen/m')

Lougangxia 1.7 1 4.5 Liujiaxia 1.3 1-2 3.0 Yanguaxia 0.5 1-2 1.4 Bapanxis 0.2 1-2 1.0 Qi.gtongxia 0.2 1-3A 0.7 Tianqiao 0.2 1-3B 0.5 Samenzisia 0.3 1-6 0.3 Lower Reach - 1-7 0.0

Total 4.55 -

3.44 Otherthings being equal, this analysisimplies that the higherup the river an offtakeis located,the higherthe returnto diversionsmust be. It also impliesthat, as the number of plantsexpands, the economiccriteria for diversionsmust also increase. Giventhe data from Table 3.7, it is clear that margnal returnsto irrigationin all regionsare higher than the opporunitycosts of downstreamenergy production. However, from Table 3.8 wecan seethat, withthe exceptionof RegionSA, someupstream regions are chargingirrigators kess than the opportunitycost of powerdownstream. Total Retur to YellowRiver Wer 3.45 From the prevous sections,we can arrive at an approximationof the total economicreturto YellowRiver water. FromTable 3.14 it is clearthat the valueof waterfor agriculturedominates all other sectorswith over 67 percentof the totalvalue of waterin the basiL The valueof waterfor M& is onlyabout 10 percentand is basedon the currenttariffs which are being used as proxiesfor willingnessto pay. Hydropoweraccounts for only 22 percentof the total valuewhen the valuesassumed are basedon alternativecosts. Giventhis ditiution, waterused for irrigationwill likelycontinue to dominatein the foreseeablefuture. -53-

Table3.14: SUNMARYOF YELLOWRIVER BENEFm

Sector Volume Unit value Totalvalue Percentage (billion3?) (fenhmn) (billionY)

Irrigation 32.42 23.8 7.72 67.7 Water supplyLa 0.99 32.0 0.32 2.2 Industrial 2.20 42.0 0.92 6.1 Hydropowerlb 17,885 3614.6 2.45 22.0

Total - 11.41 100.0

La M&I valuesadjusted fordistribution losses.

, Unitsare thousandaWh and fenlkWh. -54-

4 THE CURRENTWATER BALANCESITUATION

4.1 is chapteratempts to piecetogether infornation from several sources to arrive at a consistt pictureof the watersector's curret performanceand constrai. -Current is looselydeined as 1990out of necesity. The year 1980seems to be die benhmak against whichall recentanalysis of the watersector has beenmade. Iho most recet year for which water use data are availableis 1987,but completerunoff data have only been assembledfor 1919/20through 1974/75. Duringthe 1980sYRCC made a seriesof projectionsto 1990and 2000;those to 1990will be examined,although there is reasonto suspectsome of the underlying assumtiIons.The main tool for derivinga consistentcurrent' picture will the basin-levelmodel (BLM),described in SectionD and Annex.

A. TS 1980 DATA

4.2 Table 4.1 summarizes1980 water use data An averageanmal nmoff of 58.02billion m was used. Totalconsumption of surfce waer amountedto 27.08billion nia, of which 96 peet was from irrigationL/ Groundwateruse amounted to anoter 6.39 billionin, of which88 percentwent to irrigation.The effectiveJrrigat area seved by the YellowRier in 1980totaled 47 millionmu, implying'consuintio of 575 em/mu (8,625 n/hectare). M&I use was negligibleat about 1 billion Wn. These demandsleft 31 billionre as outflowto the sea. This variablewill bcome ineingly impont to ths study,given the uncerinty surroundinghow muchflow is necsary to flushsedimens from the lowerreach (seeAtmx ).

B. Tui 1987 DATA

4.3 Table4.2 reportsthe samedata as Table4.1, but for the eightYRCC regions, and aggregatdto the reachesused above. Totalconsumption rises from 27 bilion mWto nearly 37 bilion mW-anannual growth rate of 4.5 percent. Thisgrowth is spreadover all sectors,but M&Iis the fastestgrowing, at 5.8 percent. Irrigationuse showsan increaseof 9.35 billionW., and contines demanding96 percentof all YellowRiver water consumed.

C. YRCC PROIWEONSTO 1990

4.4 As part of its utlizationstudy, the YRCCprojected water demands, attainable supplies,and consumption to 1990. Althoughthis studyis dated1988, it is improbablethat data

11 TIb YRCC'sdefinition of "conmption"is all waterdiverted to a g8n usewhich does ot rtu to do mainsteam Totaldiversions in 1980amunted to 34.9bilion m?, implying an aveag, rtur fior of 23 pecen. -55.

Table4.1: WATER USEiN 1980 (billionaO)

Rural Irriga- Total use Reach Regions Runoff 1*I use tion

$UFfAge ma-to

Lanzhou 1 & 2 32.26 0.11 0.03 1.69 1.82 Above 10.28 Lanzhou-Rekouzhen 3A & 3B 0.58 0.10 0.01 10.17 4 - 6 24.66 0.17 0.08 5.91 6.17 Rekouzh.n-Nuayuankou 8.82 Ruayuankou-L±jin 7A, 7B 2.10 0.59 0.00 8.23 Unaccountedlosses -1.38 27.09 Basin 58.02 0.96 0.13 26.00 Groundwater

1 & 2 - 0.02 0.02 0.08 0.13 Above 1anzhou 0.67 Lanzhou-Bekouzhen 3A & 3B - 0.08 0.02 0.56 4 - 6 - 0.43 0.12 3.36 3.91 Rekouzhsn-Ruayuankou 1.69 Euayuankou-Lijin 7k, 7B - 0.05 0.03 1.60 6.39 Basin - 0.59 0.20 5.60 3.48 Basin total 58.02 1.5S 0.3 31.60 as late as 1987were employed for the projections.Results were presented for three different inflowprobabilities: P50, P75, and P95. Table4.3 summarizesthe PS0 results. Irrigation, M&I, and ral demandswere agegatedin theseprojections. total 4.5 The total noff inTable 4.3 of 58.02billion i s preciselythe same as the datareported In Table4.1, but there are slightvariations In the regionaltotals. fromthe 1980 show Thusthe results should be comparableto thoseof Table4.2. However,these projections recorded a markeddop from the 1980 figures,as well as from the 1987 dat Officily fall from 34.9 in 1980to 27.2 in 1990,and cnmumptionfills from 27.1 to 22.6. diversions the However,these projection do not includethose for Kenn and Shandong(tegion 7) outside dikes (n 1980,use in Region7 was 8.82; in 1990, 1.95). Fromprovinial data, diversions fromthe YellowRiver for irrigationin Henanand Shandongtotaled 9.31 billionm? in 1980 with8.82 total consumptionin Table 4.1), and15.67 in 1989, . 'ast year (whichis consistent for for which such data are avallable.2/ Adding these diversions(ess those pn_ ed

consultantsfiles.Hena dafta availablefor 1990and showan ieae of 0.4S 21 Sourxce:IPS lut 16 bilionin? over 1989, allowing usto conclude th diversions to a of rnon 7 we at bffiion i by 1990. -56 -

Table 42: WATERUSE IN 1987

By reach H&t Rural trrtgation Total

SurfaceWater Consumitgon (billionv?

AboveLanzhou 0.17 0.08 2.85 3.10 Lanzhou-elkouzhen 0.13 0.01 15.82 15.97 Rekouzh*n-Duayus kou 0.90 0.09 7.85 6.84 Nuayuankou-Lijin 0.21 0.01 8.83 9.06 Basin 1.42 0.19 35.35 36.96 Groundwater Consumpntgn (billion m')

Above Lanxhou 0.04 0.01 0.34 0.39 Lanshou-Bekou:h.n 0.34 0.08 1.46 1.88 Bokoushon-Nuayuankou 0.58 0.33 5.17 6.08 Nuayuankou-LiJin 0.32 0.09 7.16 7.57 Basin 1.29 0.50 14.13 15.92 Total basin use 2A1 lA 99.48 52.88 Growth Rates in Surfgge Water Consuamtio" (1) (1980-1987)

Above Lanzhou 6.7 14.4 7.7 7.9 Lanzhou-Nekoushen 4.4 3.2 6.5 6.5 Nekounhen-Huayuankou 2 2.0 4*1 5.3 Huayuankou-LUjin 3.3 -0- 1.0 0.4 Basin 5.8 5.6 4.5 4.5

Rgion 7) Implies that diversions in 1990 totaled nearly 42 billion m' and consumpdon, 36.7 billionmP. Thislatter flgureIs still slidy belowthat reportedfor 1987(36.96 billion in'),but themnmbers ae close.

4.6 The abovereslts Indicatethat duringthe decadeof the 1980s,total wateruse in the basinincreased by 10billion m&-if not more. Thisrepresents an increaseof 37 percent, all of whichcame at the expenseof oudlowsto the sea. In comparablePSO scenaios, these outflos probablydrwpped from 31 billion n' in 1980to 21 billionm? in 1990-just withinthe 20-24range needed for sdiment transport AlthoughM&E demands grew at the robustpace of about6 pecent, the bulkof the increase,over 9 billionm', wentfor Irrigation.Most, but not all, of the Increasein Irigationuse wasdue to the increasein effectiveirrigated area from about 47 millionmu in 1980to an esmated 59.9 millionmu in 1990. Wateruse per unit area also increased,from 53 iny/mu,to 611 ms/mu. This is becauseirrigated agriculture in the upper -57 -

Table4.3: YRCCWATER PRoWcONS To 1990 (billionmn)

Possi- Short- Consump- tion Returns Regions Runoff Tar8et ble s8e

Di:verolon 0.06 19.90 0.23 0.23 0.00 0.17 1 0.39 11.41 2.37 2.37 0.00 1.98 2 2.31 0.85 11.90 11.90 0.00 9.59 3 0.26 6.24 1.10 1.10 0.00 0.84 4 0.59 12.58 7.95 7.00 0.95 6.41 5 1.66 0.59 6 5.05 2.33 2.25 0.09 1.95 0.40 7 2.00 2.42 2.35 0.07 22.60 4.59 Basin 58.02 28.29 27.19 1.11 Diversionsby Reaches

=Rsh

Above 2.60 0.00 2.15 0.45 Lanshou 1 & 2 31.31 2.60

Laszhou- 11.90 0.00 9.59 2.31 Rekouzhen 3A & 3B 0.85 11.90

Rekousben- 10.35 1.04 8.91 1.44 Ruayuankou 4 - 6 23.87 11.38

Huayuankou- 2.35 0.07 1.95 0.40 Lijin 7A, 7B 2.00 2.42 1.11 Z.22.60 Total Basin 58.22 28.29 27.19

Study,'1988, p. 209. Source: Yellow River Wata Resources, 'Utiization

low deliveryefficiencies, grew reachregions, which have very high evponspiraon ratesand muchfser-at about7 percenhan the ret of the basin Absactions net 'Tese nmber do notbode well for the gundwater siuaton. 4.7 billionmin in 1987-a growthrate of returnsmore ta doubledIn the decade-from6.4 to 15.9 time, an importantIndicator of groundwaterrche, return of 13.9percent At the same eficiencies. to 4.6 billionin as a result of presumedincreases in system flows,fe1l from 7.8 they fall to flows were23 percentof tota diversions;In the 1990projections, in 1980,return goundwaterresources ae percet, excludingthe outerbasie of Region7. lhe exploitable 17 table is undoubtedly about 19.3 billion W. Other things remainingequal, the groundwater -58 -

falling areas around cities, becase of excessiveabstraction, making it more costly for municiplities to maint suWppliessince nealy half of the M&I supplies came from grudwatr.

D. Til BASIN-LEVELMODEL AND RESULTS

4.8 Thepurpose of the BLMis twofold:(a) to providea logicalframework within whichto test the implicatos of futuredevelopment strategies and therebyestimate the impacts of certaintypes of projects,and (b) to providea consistentframework to resolvemissing and Inconsient data issuessuch as thosedescribed above. The secondpoint is relevantto this secwt, bcs the availabledata do not permitderivation of a fullwater balance for anyrecent year, and someof the numbersin the projectionsto 1990are wildlyinconsistent with the data rep,rted for 1987. In thbicontext we wl employthe BLMas a "superspreadsheet" to testthe entre data set, ldendfydicrepacies, and generateprobable values for missingdata.l/ 4.9 Ihe basin-levelmodel (BLM) constructedfor this study is a nonlinear optmiaon modelof approximately1,000 equations. It maximizesthe value addedfrom YellowRiver watersubject to a varietyof physical,hydrological, agronomic, and, if desired, policycontrai. Valueadded recognized by the modelorigines from irrigatedagriculture In each of ten regions,hydropower output from six existingreservoirs and run-of-riverplants, andfrom diversions to municipaland Industri users. The BLMalso providesfor, but doesnot atmpt to count, beneft from flood control,Ice-jam prevention, and navigationthrough embeddedrestrictions on reservoiroperations and channelflows. 4.10 Tho physicaland hydrologicalconstraints ensure that water demandscannot exceedwater supplies,and that the limitationsof water storage and deliverycapacities are respected.The agronomic relationships relate irrigated crop output to availablewater supplies, sibject to the stock of irrigableland and an other resources. The constrainedoptimization approachis take for the basin-levelmodel because it is assumedthat the relevantChinese authoritieswish to obtainmaximum economic benefit from the operationof the systemas well asnv In the system, subjectto a varietyof hydrologic,physical, and agronomic constraints.Addtona con s relatedto equityor distributionalissues may also be imposed. A noninear programing (NLP)structure has been selectedas opposedto the more common linearp a g primarilybecause of the nonlinearitiesinvolved in hydropowergeneration and In endogenizedcrop watr stress-cropyield relationships. The NLPobviously offers much greaterflexibility in modelstctre, at onlya relativelysmall premium in solutiontime. 4.11 The core of the BLMis a networkof nodesand connectingarcs commonto simulationmodds (see Figure 4.1). Waterenters the systemat selectednodes as endogenously givenrunoff, and is directedthrough the systemaccording to predefinedpaths. Certainnodes repret offike possibilitiesfor irrigaon and/or municipaland industry(M&I) demands. Some nodes represon nr-of-river hydropowerplants. Reservoirsare uniquenodes in ta inflowsmay be storedfor laterrelease; each reservoir also has an associatedhydropower plant,

I/ Mmruts to followIb t outcom of a vaidation/calibatonexercise perfornmd an the 1990 bas model(described in detailin C). Althoughthe complee modelis used, the fill potentialto optma valueadded from Yellow River water is not. Instead,we seached for the MDastco_ tum obtib with the dat. tHEmlAnoOFEO YEOWLLU ER BUIN -8LM

01a dwn oTWO k~~kA

FWOMIA ~~~~~~~~~~~VAUEY

LCKGYMO@m go17A Wt t lr -) 8 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 I4AM4O s)/ kGB < W t t~~~~X40LANM % PAOLMIa

WEtVALLEY SANMBIXIA

A%o n3v v~~~~~~~~~~~~ NWq RIVEFLOW (WMAKE HESINU WLmaNM W RN= HOFOSEWAICLIAEO -60-

andmost have offa possibilities.Other nodes are inluded becausereports on waterbalances ar desiredfor compaisonwith simlar data availableelsewhere.

4.12 Eachnodes constaned to bein baa on monyhlbasis. That s, the sum of inflowsfrom upstreamnodes plus uoff plus retumnflows from previousdiversions plus releasesfrom storage(if a reservoir)must equal flows to the nen downstrem node plus diversionsto agricultureand MM plus retainedstorage If a reservoir)plus losses. 4.13 rigatd aiculte is representedin eachof the ten regionsfor the four major irrisad crops wheat, cor, cotton,and paddy. Based on availableirrigated area, a fixed croppingpat, and given montlly crop water requirementsnet of effectiveraifaIll, a desiredM diversionpattern is deterned. Accordingto the availabilityof waterin the system and its opportity valueelsewhero, thre outcomesare possible: (a) fullyield is obtned and the entireirrigated area is cropped,(b) the entirearea is cropped,but yieldsare reducedbecause of water shonages,and (c) yieldsare reducedand part of the irrigatedarea is operatedas raif. Thus the modelendogenously detemnes both irrigatedarea of each crop and its resultantyield given water supply.

4.14 M&I demandsare givenas requiredmonthly offtakes where relevant, and for the given solutionyear. They includecertain ewrabasin transfers and are givenfist priority amng demads.

4.15 Hydropowerenergy output is computedendogenously for each reservoirand majorrun-of-river plant, and exogenouslyfor other run-of-riverplants, in each month. For resevoirs, enry output is a functionof the net head and the dischargesthrough the powhues. Net headis endogenouslydetermined by functionsrelating reservoir storage and elevation,and dischargesand tailwaterelevations. Dischargethrough the powerhousesare deteined as releasesfrom the reservoirup to the limitof powerhousecapacity. Net head is assumedto be givenfor run-of-riverplants, thus energyoutput from them is computeddirectly giventhe flows in the relevantriver reaches. 4.16 Floodprotection, sediment control, and environmentalprotection measures are includedin the modelas eitherrestrictons on reservoiroperating procedures, or as river reach flow conaints. For each reservoir,upper and loweroperating limits constrain the storage permttedin eachmonth. Floodprotecdon measures imply that the downstreamreservoirs must be near deadstoae at the onsetof the floodseason, and must remain low until the floodseason has passed. In the ice-jamprone reaches,river flows must be restricted(through reservoir control)in the coldestmonths to limit flooding. Minimumflows in eachmonth are attempted in the last reachto minimizeecological damage to the estuary. 4.17 The agriculturalcomponent of the modelattempts to maxhimzethe valueadded fromthe irgated productionof the majorcrops-wheat, corn,cotton, and paddy-from given *effectivesurface-irrigated areas and given conjunctive-useareas. Theseareas for 1990are shown in Table 4.4 under the headings'eff-area- and 'cui-area,- and total 59.92 and 7.20 mUliionmu, respectively.4/A fixed croppingpattern and fixed waer requirementsare imposed. lrr-areaWis efctive Irrigatedarea cropped(I.e., includingsecond crops) using

Af 7he figm aciy petai to 98, the le year for whichsuch data re available -61 -

Table 4.4 IRRUUAT1DAGRtICULTURAL ACTIvTY (1990)

3ff- kt- Cii- Rfd- Sim- V.1- Val- Raeon aa IS am & are I ame LA dlv, Prn added Gums VP/MU VA/MU 'nnu (mm) (mmun) (m) (bm) (y) (y) (ut) (Y (Y

1 0.17 0.17 - - 0.09 0.03 0.02 0.03 172 106 2 3.33 3.33 - - 1.69 0.81 0.59 0.87 243 177 3A 5.24 5.92 0.10 3.97 1.02 0.62 1.22 194 119 3B 8.79 9.67 0.79 - 6.09 1.14 0.61 1.80 129 69 4 3.63 3.99 0.03 - 1.60 0.33 0.16 0.82 90 43 SA S.S2 6.07 1.32 0.83 2.20 1.02 0.64 1.94 184 11S SB 12.74 19.75 - - 6.49 4.0S 2.64 3.87 318 207 6 2.29 3.52 0.82 - 1.32 0.76 0.51 0.91 333 223 7A 2.84 4.83 1.94 - 1.79 1.47 1.12 1.13 518 392 7B 15.37 25.05 2.20 - 7.17 8.68 6.16 5.58 S65 401

Taw St9 82.3 ia CL8 ,2.4 123 13.0 18.6 2 2a

La Effectivearea rdefs to the physical ares with irrigation faciitues 1 Rdfrs to cropped aeav & Refers to cropped area with coqjuncive use of groundsWarand surface wate. L Refers to irngated ares which revers to anfed as a resdt of wadershortge. surfacewate onlyj/ and Is endogenouslydemined by the model. Us valuedivided by the effecve area yieldsthe croppingintensity. Rfd-area!refers to rainfedarea that coud be irigt givenadequate water supplies. 'he modelonly downgdes such areaswhen water is so shortthat the minmumstrss levelscanmot be met. 4.18 'Tis solution icates that 89.52million mu are irrigatedfrom both surface supplies(82.32 million mu) andconjunctive supplies (7.20 million mu). YRCC1987 data report 89.11million mu for totalsurface water-Irrigated are-a differenceof only0.4 percent. Only 0.83 million mu were forced into the rainfed classification;all of this was in Region SA, which lies mosdy in the Fen Basin. 'his region was fund to be severely short of water durng the model testingprocedure, which led to the inclusionof the Fen Reservoir in the model. This change alleviatedthe shortage by about 50 percen However, an examinationof the inflowsto this valley revealed that in most years shortagescan be expected. They can only be parily reduced by pumping from the Yellow River becue of the limited capacity and high lift involved. As shown In Table 4.5, shortages occurred in Region SA in all months from Apri throughStember. The only other regionexperiening shortages was SB, and ta in April

I/ In8gated ares udisag by YRCC into fth served by suirfce water only, dth served by groundwater oldy, and that seved by both (co*utive us). The amd focue priary on the Ebntcateoy, but requr that half of dho conjuncfie use demandsbe suppHedby rher sources. Ara lnatied from groundwateronly are outside the scope of the model. -62 - only. It is noteworthythat the YRCCutflization study expected that subregionalcomponlets of RegionsSA and SB wouldexperience the mostsevere shortages in the basin.fi 4.19 The rightmostcolumns of Table4.4 also showgross valueof productionfrom Irrigatedarm measuredin economicprices, which totals Y 19.3 billion and ralueadded, Y 13.06billion. The rangeof thesefigures conforms with expectios aboutthe low levelsof productivityand Incomesin the upper and middlereach regions, and the relativelyhigh producvity and Incomesin the lowerreach regions. 4.20 Theonly crop stressed in this solutionand thus suffering a lossof yieldis corn, and that onlyin Regions5A and SB. Totalirrigated grain production(surfce water irrigated areasonly), whichis the productof the irrigatedareas and yields,amounted to 18.16million tons-3 percentless thanthat expectedfrom the resultsgiven in Chapter3 (Table3.3a). 4.21 Themodel diverted a total of 32.42bi1lion n' to the surface-Irrigatedareas as shownin column simt-dvr*of Table4.4. Table4.5 reportsthe udeslred or targetdiversions of 33.5 billionen as computedfrom the model'sdatabase. These are the diversionsrequ to meetthe croppingpatten giventhe cropwater requirements and the distributionefficiencies. Table4.7 reportsthe shortal in diversionswhich led to the cop stressin regionsSA and SB, and the downgradingof effectiveirrligated area to rainfedarea In SA. Table 4.5: DESinEDDIVERsONS (billionm3)

R*i=a JUL AUG SEP OCr NOV PEB MAR APR MAY JUNTOTAL

1 0.022 - 0.035 0.069 - - 0.007 0.033 0.043 0.209 2 0.308 0.035 0.033 0.328 0.314 - - 0.110 0.423 0.349 1.900 3A 0.560 0.238 0.149 0.502 0.612 - - 0.280 1.004 1.161 4.506 3B 1.465 0.821 0.453 1.050 1.050 - - - 0.909 1.428 7.176 4 0.266 0.255 0.203 - - 0.109 0.392 0.130 0.250 1.605 SA 0.473 0.508 0.185 - 0.148 0.006 0.241 0.319 0.185 0.213 2.278 SB 1.012 1.038 0.567 - 0.535 0.191 0.539 1.096 0.692 0.625 6.295 6 0.171 0.204 0.086 0.050 0.034 - 0.134 0.185 0.153 0.218 1.241 7A 0.280 0.113 - 0.115 0.11S - 0.286 0.286 0.033 0.43S 1.663 7B 0.759 0.620 - 0.461 0.517 - 1.015 1.015 1.015 1.272 6.674 aDW S 32832 L1 2.4 01 2.24 3.69Q AM 33.S

4.22 A consisencycheck is madepossible by the avaiabilityof a set of projections madein the utiizationstudy. Table4.7 reportsthose projections for 1990under a P50 inflow sceaio comparedwith BLM results for the sameyear and same scenario. The definitions diff fromthose used above,so the mbSerswill vary somewhat. 'Divers.' refer to tot ahable divesions (which are less than or equal to desired diversions)from the main stem and

& WsWResources Umtia Study,1987, YRCC. - 63 -

Table 4.6: SHoRTFALLiN DrvummoNs (billionte)

Regom JUL AUG SEP MAR APR MAY JUN Total

SA 0.120 0.0&0 0.031 0.016 0.045 0.008 0.035 0335 SB - - - - 0372 372

0120 0m LOU LW OJ.A

Tabb 4.7:PRaOECroNS FRO0M YRCC UTULZATIONSTUDY COMPARED wITHBI SJMULATION

1990 Pso YRCC BLK Region Divers.Consump. Losses Divers. Consump. Losses

1 0.23 0.17 0.06 0.17 0.12 0.05 2 2.37 1.98 0.39 2.40 1.86 0.54 3 11.90 9.59 2.31 10.30 8.07 2.24 4 1.10 0.84 0.26 1.71 1.43 0.28 5 7.95 6.41 1.55 9.56 7.78 1.78 6 2.33 1.66 0.67 1.76 1.20 0.56 7 1* 2.42 1.95 0.47 9.57 9.20 0.37

Basin tota 28.29 22.60 5.70 35.47 29.65 ,L.

1-6 total 25.88 20.65 5.23 25.90 20.45 5.45

2 difference - - - 0.1 -0.9 4.2

La Thetwo studiesuse differentRegion 7 definitions.

tributaries,including those for M&I. -Consump."is all diversionswhich do not reeter tho systemas rtur flows. Losses'are the difference,or thatcomponent of diversionswhich does retu Reslts fromthe BLM are comparablebecause the model containsvariables for divasionsto bothIrrigation andM&I, and endogenously compuces retun flowsfrm eac. 4.23 Thiscomparison shows a veryclose relationship between the twostudies excpt forRgion 7, whichin YRCCwork included only the areasprotected by the maindike andnot therest of eom and Shandong,which is irrigatedby YellowRiver water. Indeed,dte model almt preciselymatches YRCC's attinable diversions for Regions 1-6; consumptlon esdoma are widn 1percent, and"losses' are within5 perce. Thi cosene Is no entirelydue to the -64 - fact that the BLMand the YRCC analysis presumablyused many of the same data. The YRCC definitionsof irigated area differed considerablyfrom the later estmates used by the BLM, and even the totals of PSOinflow used differ by about 2 billion e'.

BasI-wide Watr Balance

4.24 Table 4.8 summarizesthe basin-wide water balance for the 1990 PSOcase producedby the BLM. Of the 56.35 billion enof annual runoff, 1.79 is lost through reservoir evaporationand channel seepage In the lower reach, 3.19 is diverted for M&Edemands, and 32.42 to agriculture. From these last two categories, 6.33 billion mn3returns, resulting in net diversionsof 29.28 billion i. Flows to the sea amount to 23.19 billion n. There is very little informationavailable to validate these results; however, we have already seen that aggregate diversions to agriculture are extremely close to those YRCC reported for 1987. Other fragmentarydata from YRCC suggest that they believe net diversionstotal 27.5 billion mi for a recent year-1.8 billion in'less than the model shows. YRCC also expects (or hopes for) about 20-24 billionW' dischargesto the sea for sedimentflushing and environient. protection. Under this scenario, the model finds 23.2 billion m3, near the high end of the exr eted range.

Table 4.8: BASIN-WIDEWATER BALANCE (billionin)

Runoff Losses To M+l To-ag Returns Net div. To sea

JUL 8.46 0.25 0.27 5.10 0.95 4.41 2.21 AUG 10.51 0.23 0.27 3.81 0.86 3.22 5.33 SEP 6.76 0.17 0.27 1.62 0.67 1.22 2.93 OCT 6.28 n.12 0.27 2.31 0.43 2.15 2.40 NOV 3.66 0.08 0.27 3.20 0.50 2.97 2.23 DEC 1.55 0.05 0.27 - 0.64 -0.37 2.87 JAN 1.49 0.05 0.27 - 0.17 0.09 2.38 FEB 1.44 0.07 0.27 0.21 0.17 0.31 1.02 MAR 3.22 0.12 0.27 2.45 0.20 2.51 0.08 APR 2.83 0.17 0.27 3.47 0.37 3.36 0.08 MAY 4.30 0.22 0.27 4.42 0.55 4.14 0.21 JUN 5.85 0.26 0.27 5.82 0.81 5.28 1.44

Total 56.35 1.79 3.19 32.42 6.33 29.28 23.19

1990-Alternative Inflow Scenarios

4.25 All of the above reslts pertained to the P5Oor median inflow scenario. The BLM was also testd with a range of inflowscenarios, from P25 to W9. Table 4.9 summarizes the results. -65-

Table4.9: EIM 1990 UNDERALTNATIVE INFLOW SCENARIOS

Probability P25 P50 P75 P90

Hvdrglo2r(billion W) Total runcff 69.59 56.35 48.94 39.71 To Sea 36.85 23.19 16.56 8.95

Diversions (billionm') To agriculture 31.39 32.42 31.86 30.36 To M&I 3.19 3.19 3.19 3.19 Bet diversions 28.35 29.28 28.79 27.47 Agriculture Irrigatedarea (mil.mu) 82.42 82.32 81.71 80.63 Rainfedarea (mil.mu) 0.73 0.83 1.43 3.11 Cropping intene. 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.34 Grain output(mil. tons) 17.64 18.16 17.74 16.95 Gross output (bil. Y) 19.15 19.30 19.17 18.81 Value added (bil.Y) 12.91 13.06 12.97 12.72

IMerg Total (Gwh) 23.17 18.18 15.09 13.02 Base load (Gvh) 17.55 12.89 10.06 8.15 Peaking(Owh) 5.62 5.29 5.03 4.87 Value (bil.Y) 2.83 2.50 2.27 2.13

4.26 Exceptfor energyoutput and flowsto the sea, there is litdedifference between theP25 (wet), P50 (median)and P75 (dry) year solutions. In some respects,the P50 case representsan improvementover the P25 case, even thoughP25 containsabout 13 billionmn moreannual runoff. Thisis becausethe P25 yearsare typicallyhigh flood years which result in the high annualtotals. However,in somemonths critical to agriculture,the P50 flows are actuallyhigher than the '22. Thus PS0obtains slightly higher grain output and slightlyhigher valueadded, although the differencesare negligible. TheP75 case showsa marginalincrease in rainfedarea and marginaldecreases in all the indexesof agriculturalperformance, but again, they are not significant. ITis result may well be due to the fact that YRCC has planned developmentfor the P75 case; i.e., they expect that water will be availablefor projects undertakenin at leastthree out of four years. 4.27 Largedifferences in bothenergy output and flowsto the seado appearbetween the P25, P50, and P75 cases, and in predictabledirections. Energyoutput is of coursehighly dependenton flows, and totaloutput drops from23.17 thousand gigawatt hours in the P25 to 15.09in the P75 case. Sincenet diversionsdo notvary muchat all, the remainderflows to the sea. Ihis variableis nearly37 billionm3 in the P25 case, about23 billionm3 in the P50 case, and about 16.5 in the P25 case. The implicationof these numbersis that, for the curret sihuation,we can expectthe 20-24billion m3 flows to the sea desiredfor sedimentflushing, on average. -66 -

428 In the P90 case, or in 1 year out of 10, significantshottages begin to appea. Painfedarma is aboutfour times Ihatof the P50 case, diversionsto agicule are 2 billionm bdow the PSOcase, and grainoutput is about6 percentless. 'he largestimpact is on energy oupu, whichis only71 percentof the P50 case and 55 percentof the P25 case. Naly, flows to d sea drop fbrher, to below9 billionmn.

E. CONCaANG R]EMAS ADoT TE CURRENrSTUATION

4.29 Thedecade of the 1980sshowed rapid growth in all sectorsusing Yellow River wator. Irigation demandsgrew about4.5 percenta year, and M&I demandseven fster, at neaiy 6 percenL Overallregional growth, though difficult to document,was undoubtedly impressive.In 1980,the greatestconcern, next to floods,was probably a prolongeddrought like that whichoccurred in the 1920sand early 1930s. But by 1990,localized shortUges could be expectedin mostinflow scenarios, and systemwide shortages would become significant in a PO year or 1 year out of 10. Any improvementsin the efficiencyof waterdelivery and use that undoubtedyhad been accomplishedwere masked by the rapid expansionof irigationin areas ofhigh watr conumpton and low systemefficiency. 4.30 Severalareas of concernwill be paramountin the fture: (a) The systemprobably cannot tolerate growth In demandat the samerates unless it is accompaniedby markedincrases in efficiency. (b) The problem of controllingsediment at the source has been partily ameliorated,while the meansof flushingsediment from the lowerreach, already suspendedat dangerouslevels, drops concomitantlywith increasesin water demand. (c) Becu no reservoirsother than Lonyangxla in the far upperreach have been constucted,there has beenno increasein floodprotection save for thatobtained ftho the continuingdike manence work. -67-

5 INVES1TNT OPTIONS

A. OVER w 5.1 n accordancewith the objectivesfor the basin as described in Chapter 1-harnessing the YellowRiver to control floodingand reduce sedimentation,increasing hydropowerout, and promodng ational allocationsfor Irrigationdevelopment, some 75 projectshave been identfied. The total cost of these projectsby plan and level, Is given in Table 5.1. All exceptthe localcomponents of aIrrigation,hbroken out at the bottomof the tale, are basin-level.Most basin-level projects are put forthby YRCCunder the auspicesof MWR,in coordinationwith MWR, or in the caseof powerplants, under the auspicesof MOE, in copeaton withMWR. The navigation'projects are underthe domainof MOT.and the M envlronmentalprojects, under NEPA. Mostlocal projects are put forthby the provincesor autonomousregions. 5.2 The grandtotal, assumingthat the costsare in 1987yuan and thatyuan inflation has been 50 percentsince, are very roughly $10.5billion, 8.38 of which is targeted for expenditre by 2000. This figure is probablyvastiy understated: not all of the post-2000 project have been included;many local projects may also be missing;and Xiaolangdi,one of the fie multipuposereservoirs included in the table,is currendyestimated to cost$2.8 billion. 5.3 Understaedthough these investmentfigures may be, they suggest starting 8icreasesin centally funded wawr resource investmenton the Yellow River over the trend in the past decade. 5.4 Centallybudgetedbasic capital investments in waterresources in YellowRiver provincesdeclined from 1979peaks of Y 711 millionin real termsto lowsof Y 256million in the mid-1980s.The 1990investment levels represent a recoveryin real termsto 1980levels of nearlyY 480 milion. 5.5 Unf&orunately,clear conclusionscannot be drawn from these trends. Two complicationsarise. First, and most important,the potentialsources of water resource investmentfuding have dramaticallydiversified in the past decade,including funding fom noncapitalstate accounts,funding from extrabudgetaryrevenues, local governmentfunding, direct clntributions from beneficiaries, and foreign funding. Ihe institutionaland financial refrm of the waterresource subsector have shifted the focusof financingaway from central capitalconstruction budgetary alocations (capital construction allocations amounted to nearly 50 percentof all nationalwater resourcesubsector expenditures in the 1976-80period but declinedto onlya thirdof expendituresby the mid-1980s)toward local financing, and especially toward small-scalefarmland water conservancysubsidies. Second, investmentsin water - 68 -

Tabl 5.1: FIANaNCILCosts oF PRoposin INVESFweNTS (billionY)

8th Plan 9th Plan 10th Plan S of 1991-95 1996-2000 2001-05 Total 1990-2000 Bil. $

Rarnessing 1.55 1.04 0.04 2.63 8.4 0.65 Conservation 1.06 1.06 n.a. 2.11 6.8 0.57 Irrigation 5.50 6.00 n.a. 11.50 36.8 3.08 Reservoirs 3.40 5.33 3.56 12.29 27.9 3.29 Power plants 1.82 3.29 2.17 7.28 16.3 1.95 Navigation 0.41 0.50 0.70 1.61 2.9 0.43 Environmental 0.16 0.17 n.a. 0.33 1.1 0.09 Total 13.90 17.39 6.47 37.75 100.0 10.11

Local Investmentsincluded in "Irrigation"

rovinsac (reetonL 1299-2000 low area la Improved (bil.Y) (=mu) (=mu)

Qinghai (1) 0.01 .87 .80 Gansu (2) 1.55 2.12 1.25 Ningxia (3A) 0.64 .92 1.92 Inner Mongolia (3B) 1.60 2.80 6.67 Shaanxi (4,5B) 1.18 2.54 13.54 Shanxi (5A) 0.17 1.56 3.91 Henm (6,7A) 1.35 3.40 6.50 Shandong (7B) 1.54 5.43 9.32 Total local 8.03 19.52 43.96

'MThe total proposed area is much larger up to 25.9 million mu (see para. 6.51 with the inclusionof lower reach areas. resourcesin YellowRiver provinces include large investments (certainly in Shandong)in works not relatdto the YellowRiver.

5.6 Nevertheless,an unmistakble messagecan be drawnfrom this fragmentay view. Thescope of the proposedinvestment program is likelyto exacerbateexisting disputes overheaily rationedfimding and increasethe difficultiesinherent in coordinatingcomprehensive Basininvestment programs in the faceof competingsubsectors and adminisve levels. 5.7 The largest componentof proposedbasin investments through the 10thFYP (33pret) is earmarkedfor five majormain-stm muldtipuposefacilities (from upstream -69 -

Table 5.2: CArrAL CONSrRucrnoN INveSmD IN WATERRESOURCES ON THEYELLOW RIVER (mfllion1980 yuan, GDP deflator1980=100)

2 Change Avg. previous myp Period Total annual period

6th FYP 1981-85 1,557 311 7th FYP 1986-90 2,029 406 30 8th FYP 1991-95 13,368 2,674 559 9th FYP 1996-2000 14,372 2,874 8 10th FYP 2001-05 4,977 995 -65

Note: ProposedSth-lOth FYP YR investmentsare adjustedby 1987(GDP deflator. Sources: ChinaSSB Yearbooks, 1987-91, MWR Yearbools, 1975-88.

Daliushu,Wanjiazhai, Qikou, Longmen and Xiaolangdi)(see Map 24545).1/ The sequencing of thesemajor facilities investments in the currentplans has beendetermined by the mannerand extentto which the variousworks meet the prioritybasin objectives,by the nature of the physicalflow and sedimentationprocesses, and by the nature of the expectedfinancial and politicalobstacles expected. Due to itsunique capability for dealingwith the criticallower reach floodand sedimentcontrol issues, Xiaolangdi is the linchpinof the proposedmain-stem works and is to be built first, between1993 and 2004. However,due to its locationon the lastgorge of the river as it flowsfrom the middleto the lower reach, Xiaolangdiwill not contributeto meetingeither the strategicM&I water supply or irrigationneeds of the criticallyshort middle- reachInner Mongolia coalfields and the Fen RiverValley. To meetthese needs, Wanjiazhai is expectedto be constructedsometime in the 1995-2005period.

5.8 The timing of investmentsin the remainingthree main-stemmultipurpose facilitiesis less clear. Daliushu,at the mouthof the HeishanGorge on the borderof Gansuand Ningxia,will contributeto improvingflood and ice run controlon the Ningxia-InnerMongolia plains, provide water to irrigatereclaimed desert lands for resettlementprograms in Inner Mongolia,Ningxia and Shaanxi,and increasethe reliabilityof flows for middlereach water supply. However,both the planningand designof Daliushuhave been delayed for decadesdue to lingeringinterprovincial conflicts.Z/ Qikou, between Wanjiazhai and Longmen on the steep gorgesof the LoessPlateau, is intendedto amplifyand extendsediment control in conjunction with Xiaolangdi. AlthoughQikou also promisessome power generationand minor flood control,water supply and navigationbenefits, these benefits may notoutweigh construction and financingobstacles in the inaccessibleand difficultsite. Thus,Qikou will not be builtbefore

1/ YRCC,1990. 'Report of the YeilowRiver ImprovementPlanning", currdy underreview by MWRand SPC. Thisinvestment sharm is pobly grosslyudertted.

3/ However,ageem resolvingthese disputes may shortlybe forthcoming,YRCC, 1992. .70-

Fure 5.1: REALCApITAL CONSrRUcoN INvESrEm IN WATE1R RESOURCESBYYELLOW RIVER lROVNCES, 1978-90

3.5

2.5S

II ~2-

0. 5

019%' l 182 1988 | 1Q 1 90 19S4 1999

o China + YRP

Xlaolangdiis completed,but may be startedbefore Daliushu. Constuction at Longmen,at the mouthof the gorgesempting onto the smallplain area betweenthe confluenceof the Fen, Sushbi,and Weirivers and the SamenxiaReservoir, is unlikelyto beginbefore any of the other main-stemworks due to the sequencingrequirements of the floodand sedimentcontrol efforts. 5.9 The proposedcentral investments in irrigation,the secondmajor investment component(30 percent of aU8th through10th FYP YellowRiver waterresource investments), are intendedto servea multitudeof goals,among others, rehabilitation and upgrading of existing irrigationand drainagefacilities, construction of new irrigationareas, investmentsin water- savingtechnologies, and soil and water conservationand resettlementschemes for the upper reachand LoessPlateau. Theseinvestments represelrL only a subsetof locallyproposed works and reflectsome integrationof centraland local inerests. In additionto these works, it is expectedthat local uthrties (subjectto appropriatehigher-level approval) will proceedwith other noncentrallyfunded irrigation facilities, the scopeof whichis not known. 5.10 Forthe purposeof this studywe define planning horizons as: shortterm (before the year2000), medium term (between2000-10), and long term (worksto be undertakenat some indefinitedate beyond2010). This delineationconforms with that selectedfor the BW. experiments:2000 and 2010. However,time lags between expenditures and completionensure that in any giventime period all of the cumulativeinvestments may not have an impact. For -71 -

X1gure5.2: REALCArnAL CONSrURION INV sm IN WATr RESOURCESAS PERCENT OF ALLCAP. CONsMucnoN IrMawn

8. 00X

7.00%

8.00W6\

S. oox A S.00W

4.00\

3.00*

2.00W

1.00W 1 1982 | 1986 | 1990 1980 1984 1908 - ChIna + YAP

xample,Xiaolangdi will incur most of its expendituresduring the 1993-2000period. Butit will not be completedbefore 2001 or 2002,therefore it will not affectthe 2000 scenario. In turn, we will descbe briefly tie types of projectsunder the first four headingsin Table 5.1. Viruly no informationis availableon the navigationaland e entl projects, whichtoD onlyabout 5 percentof the totalplan. B. RIVu HARNESG ANDREGUIATION

5.11 Until Xiaolangdiis completed,flood and sedimentcontrol on the lowerreach can only be achievedthrough a coordinatedwork programwhich includesdike raisingand strengthening,river training,large-cale warping(see Map 6). floodplainand flooddetention basin renovation,estuary Improvement, reald-time flood forecastngand communications and research. Aggregatelower reach work quanties, labor requirementsand investmentsare presentedih the 4th Dike Raisingand S gthentngCmq,algn, 190-97, preparedby YRCC and underreview by MWR. Workon the mainembankment dikes involves 36.2 millionan of excavation,on averageraising dile heights 1 meter or more on 332 kn of dikes below Huayuankou.In addition,more than 300 kn of dikeswil be strenened by warpingon the back-sideof the dikes;on average20 millionm' of warpingalong the dikeswill be undertaken eachyear. At weakdike sections, 2 millionmW of earthwill be movedeach year to buld berms on both front and rear sides of the dike. In partculay vulable sectons, tengthening -72 -

measuresinclude 2.5 million n' of rockworks,6 millionm' of earthworksand high-pressure grouting. In all, 16 majorintake gates alongthe embankmentswill be rehabilitated. 5.12 Alongthe floodplainsbetween the levees,flood control work will concentrate on buildingirrigation works (wells,pumping stations, sluices, feeders, mains,and laterals), drainageworks (pumping stations, sluices, and mainditches), warping basins, and roadson the 843-km-longfloodplain between Mengjin County, Henan and Kenli County,Shandong. The major focus of the floodplainwork will be on the wide and relativelylow 1,229kmW of floodplainalong the 227-km-longriver sectionbetween Dongbatou and Taochengpu.With the exceptionof the morethan 700 km of minordikes within the floodplainconstructed after 1958 and ongoingdike protectionand warping,there have been almost no water resourceor agriculturalimprovements on the floodplainswithin the last 40 years.1I Nearly0.5 million mu are low lying and lack adequatedrainage. With flows at Huayuankougreater than S,000m3Is or evenheavy summer or fall rains, this depressedarea becomesmarshlands. 5.13 The 4th Campaignalso includesefforts to strengthenthe coffer dam at the DongpinghuDetention Basin and to strengthenthe dikes along the BeijindiDetention Basin. Effbrtswill alsobe madeto stabilizethe estuaryby blockingsecondary channels, river taining and sedimentroiling to permit naural sluicingof sedimentsalong the main channel.Flood forecastingand communication network will be improvedbetween Sanmenxia and Huayuankou to improvereal-time flood forecasting. River regulation will also be pursued,particularly along the Jiqiao-Dongbatou(Huayuankou) section. This involvesthe constuctionof 574 spursand stackdikes and S1 revetments. 5.14 Finally,a varietyof experimentalresearch projects will also continue. Of particularinterest is the use of large-scalewarping, 300-50 m outsidethe levees,to buildup the height of the surroundingland surface(see Map 6). It is felt that in this fashionthe "suspendedriver" ultimatelycould be transformedinto a wgroundriver."

5.15 All of the aboveriver-harnessing activities are confinedto the lowerreach. In the middleand upper reaches,a similar,but less ambitious,series of projectsis neededto regulateand controlthe river. This effort focuseson the Ningxia-InnerMongolia and the Longmen-Tongguanriver sections. Along the Ningxia-InnerMongolia river section in Ningxia, 344 km of dikeswill be raised, 103km of dikeswill be newlyconstructed and 49 majorriver trainingworks will be undertakenat a costof Y 42 million(in 1987current yuan). In the Inner Mongoliasection, 913 km of dikeswill be raisedand 65 river trainingworks carried out at a estimatedcost of Y 71 million(in 1987current yuan).

S.16 The river sectionbetween Longmen and Tongguanwill be stabilizedand the southbank of the reach containingthe confluenceof the Fen, Sushuiand Wei riverswith the main stem transformedby the completionof S river trainingworks and investmentsin 5 new river trainingworks. in addition,existing dikes will be strengthenedand raised. The costs estimatedfor this reachare Y 77 million(in 1987current yuan). 5.17 The cost of the lower reachwork is esmated to be Y 2.437billion (in 1987 currentyuan). The benefitswill mainlyaccrue from reducedrisk of flooddamage, but some

,1 YRCC, 1991,Pojea CompkteonReponfor the FintStageof the LowerYeowRver Floo4plain Workt. - 73 - positiveeffects on sedimentcontrol and irrigation can be expected.'he upperand middlereach work has estimatedcosts of Y 190mfllion (in 1987current yuan). The benefitsfrom these worksare reducedrisks of flooddamage in the affectedsections. C. WATERAM SOILCONSVATION

5.18 As partof the coordinatedapproach to floodand sedimentcontrol on the Yellow River, large-scalerehabilitation of severelyeroded Loess Plateauareas will be undertaken. Theseworks are the condnuationof decades-oldprograms, combining biological, agronomic, agroforestq and engineeringtechnology and speciflcproject works with mass campaigns. Althoughthese programshave done much to Improvewater availabilityand reliability, agriculturaland agroforestryproduction, and farmincomes in someof China'smost desperately poor and degradedareas, thus far, these programshave not met expectationswith regardto reductionsin sedimentdelivery to the lower reach. Beyondthe fact that the programshave coveredonly a fractionof the seriouslyaffected area and far less thanoriginally planned, there havebeen concernsabout the qualityand stabilityof completedprojects. 5.19 Recently soil and water conservationefforts have been revised as the ComprehensiveFlood and Sediment Control program, which envisions sediment control through soil andwater conservation as a meaningfulcomponent of a muchlarger and evolving flood and sedimentcontrol effort in the lower reach.4/ The work programincludes: the amelioration of 4,000 km2 of severelyeroded areas between Hekouzhen and Sanmenxiaevery year, so that by the year2000, an additional30,000 kn 2 of seriouslyaffected area willhave been improved, bringingthe total amelioratedarea to 165,000klm 2 (38 percentof the total affectedarea) and reducingtotal sedimentdeposition on the lowerriver channelby on average100 million tons annually;the constucdonof 1,200new check-damsand the reconstructionof more than2,000 exting check-dam by the year 2000; and the rehabilitationof eight major YellowRiver tributarieswhich course through the LoessPlateau.&/ 5.20 The totalcost of all theseworks is estimatedat Y 7.95 billion(Table 5.1). The Y 2.11 billionestimate (in 1987current yuan) represents only the centralallocations to Loess Plateausoil and waterconservation efforts and is onlya smallportion of totalinvestment. For example,central investnts in major check dams only include investmentsin primary constructionmateris and reflectonly about 20.30 percent of total large checkdam costs. 5.21 Thebenefits of theseworks accrue from the postponementof investmn needed for lower reac floodcontrol as well as from increasedlocal agriculturaloutput and incomes. For the amelioratedregions, targets by the year2000 include: grain self-sufficiencyat 375 kg per person;75 millionmu of cultivatedarea in terraces,small irrigated areas, or in checkdams (nearly doublingthe 38 millionmu cultivatedin 1985),and in agroforestry,orchards, and rangelands. If the proposedsoil and water conservationefforts are completelysuccessful, 500 milliontons of sedimentcan be retainedeach yearin the LoessPlateau, creating new arable lands in a severelydegraded environment, and per capita grain productionwill increase

Al YRCC,1988, 'Revised smmay of the reporton YellowRiver hanessing and development planninand YRCCand CYJV,1991, The XlaolangdlProjea, VolumeL $/ Dotailsway be foundin the LoessPlateau Soil ConservationProposal currenly uer eviewby WoddBank staff. - 74 -

107percent at an sdmed incremen annualbenefit of Y 679 millionnet of on-farmcoss. The aual retentionof 500 milliontons of sedimentin the sourcearea will reducesediment delivery to the lower reach by 2SOmillion tons annually, including a reduction of 100million tons in lower rech channeldeposition. This will delay anotherround of dike rasing and ein the lower meachby 10 years, at an estimatedannual incremenal benefitof Y 324million. However,i mustbe concludedthat it tookalmost 40 years(1950-90) to achievea 250 millionto decreasein sedimentload and a 100 millionton decreasein depositionin the lowerreach. It may take another80 to 100years with enormous investments to decreas sedimentloads by S00million tons (i.e., sedimentflow of about850 milliontons/ yearat Huayuankou).This is the reductionneeded corresponding to ensurethat mostof the load can be flushedout, which woud more or less eliminatethe need for continualraising of the dikes.

D. IR1UGATION 5.22 The lare (37percent) component of the investmentprogram planned before the year 2000 involvesirrigation district rehabilitation and expansionand new constructionin everyprvince in the basin(see Map 24549). About70 percentof the worksidentified in Table 5.1 are provinciallyproposed works which have beenreviewed by YRCCand MWRand are currenty in the 1990revised Report on YellowRiver Improvemem PlanWng.il The rest are "basin-wideprojects proposed by YRCC/MWRand are independentof other major Yellow River works. 5.23 Theseprograms include both main-stem developments and workson tributaries and fall Intofive general categories: (a) projectsrelatively rich in unexploitedwater supplies which will be developedto servewater-stressed areas or areasoutside the basinin the region,

(b) projects serving areas with very sharp conflicts between water supply and

(d) projet steing water4avln igion, and (e) projectsto improveirrigation and drainage systems on low andmedium yielding lands. 5.24 In TableS.1 it wUIbe noticedthat almost44 millionmu or irrigationwill have to be rehabilitatedand improvedfor the 8th, 9th and 10thplans. Another19.5 millionm.u of new ition scheme'swill be constructed.The total cost of the irrigationworks has been estimatedto be Y 11.5 billion ($3.2 billion). The 44 millionmu rehabilitationwill have significantimprovements in the systemsdelivery efficiencies. The presentirrigation efficiencies are shownIn Table6.3 (.e., S1 percentto 55 percentfor systemdelivery and 60 percentto 90 percet for farmers'field systems). Majorimprovement of canalsystems wiUl be maiy for Shaanxi,and Sha systemsand willinvolve: lining a majorportion of the maincanal system;

f 11. coo pqoectssad costsa sted in Ana S. -75 -

repairand installnew controlstructures and gates; constructmore branchcana systems;etc. In other provincesthere will also be improvementsin the canal systemsbut It will not be so intensive,especially in Henan and Shandong,but in Ningxia,Inner Mongolia,Gansu and Qinghaiimprovements will be mainlyconstruction of branch canals and drainage canals. However,for farmers'field systems the entire44 millionmu will have to be upgraded,and it wil involveImproving laterals, sublaterals and field ditchesand someland leveling.The total cost willbe about$1.3 billionfor rehabilitation.2/These investments will Improvethe present systemdelivery efficiencies by 5 percentand field deliveryefficiencies by 15 percentcausing a savingof 1.5billion nin of waterper year. Thewater shortages at the field levelare reduced by 2.70 billionme.II 5.25 As with the other investmentestimates presented here, irrigationproject investmentsinclude only the costsof centralallocations in the workscomplex, in majorfeeders, mainsand submainsand in large pumpingstations and lift stages. The costs of extending irrigationworks to the farm level wouldbe born locallyand are not included. Actua total investmentcost are likelyto be far higher. Theprimary benefits of theseirrigation projects are the xqeed increasesin net farm valueadded and water savingsthrough Improved delivery efficiency.

E. HYDROPOWERPLAUS 2/

5.26 Ijiaxia. Twonew run-of-river plants will be completedbefore the year2000- Lijiaxiaand Daxia-at an esdmatedcost of Y 2.12 billion (in 1987current yuan).J/ Both are located on the upper reaches between Longangxia and the HeishanGorges and will supply powerto the NorthwestChina power network. Lijiaxia,in HualongCounty, Qinghai, is under construcdonwith an estmatedinvestment cost of Y 1.66 billion(in 1987current yuan). River closureis expectedbefore flood season In 1993. Theconcrete 165-m high arch dam at Lijiaxia will commanda catiment area of 136,806khin. Approximay 3.08 milion mnof earth and stoneworkshave been excavatedand 3 millionmn of concretepoured. The total capacityof Ljiaxia's reservoirwill be 1.65 billionin, but effectivestorage capacity only 60 millionW. To resevoir willrequire resettlement of 3,200people and cover5,000 mu of farmland.With a maximumhead of almost136 m, ijiaxia willhave an Installedcapacity of 2,000 MWand an averageannu enery capabilityof 5,920GWh. 5.27 Dwua. Themuch smaller Daxia project near ahou hasbeen approved by the State Counciland constructionshould begin shortly at anestimated cost of Y 460 miSlion(in 1987current yuan). I Construcdonis expectedto be completedbefore the year 2000. The

V Fieldcan ad som lessintev can rhabilitaon for about28 millionmu cosing $0.76 milhlnand itnsive rehabision of canalsystems and field canals for 15million mu castng $0.6 billion. fl/ Thee ha beencomputed by themodel in Table6.11. 2/ SeeMap 24545 for location of thehydopower plants. jQI YRCC,1992, hwpoy Repor on the &udyof Invrmem Planon the YdlowlUver Basin. 11/ YRCC, 1988, eovised _umy of the teport on YellowRiver hamessingand deveopomt -76 - concrete71-m high gravity dam at Daxiawill command a catchmentarea of 227,800kmn12. The tot capactyof Daxia'sreervoir is 90 millon minand effectivestorage is 60 millionm&. Only 1,500mu of farmlandwill be inundatedby the reservoirand resettlement is negligible.Like the nearbyLijiauia, Yanguoxia and Bapanxia reservoirs, Daxia will only have daily storage and will be operat as a un-of-riverpower plant. Witha maximumhead of only31 m, Daxiawill have an Installedcapacity of 300 MWand an averageannual energy capability of 1,470GWh. With the completionof Lijiaxiaand Daxia, 26.5 percentof the capacityand 31.6 percentof the energy capabiityof Xt YellowRiver will have been developed. 5.28 Laxlwa. Two other major hydropowerfacilities between Longyangxia and Labhou are on the medium-termhorizon, Laxiwa and GongboxiLa.Laxiwa, in GuideCounty, Qinghai,will be the nextmajor hydropower project constructed on the upstreamreach after the comnpletlonof Lijiaxiaand Daxia,at an estimatedInvestment cost of Y 3.17 billion (in 1987 current yuan).j2 Some 63 percentof the requiredinvestments would be spentduring the 9th FYP and the remainderin the 10th FYPj.U/ The concretedouble-curved 250 m arch damat Laxiwawill command a catchmentarea of 132,200kmW. Construction will take between 67 years with the first turbineunit operationalby the sixth year.lA/ The total capacityof Laxiwa's reservoir will be 1.0 billion i, but active storage capacity will be only 150million nil. The reservoirwill require resettlementof only 200 peopleand 200 mu of firmand. With a maximumhead of almost220 m, Laxiwawill have an installedcapacity of 3,720 MW and an averageannuial energy capabilityof 9,740 GWh.JJ The Northwest DesignInstitute has cardedout a feasibilitystudy of the Laxiwaproject. Onlydaily storageis availableand withan installedcapacity of 3,720MW and a capacityfactor of 30 percentbased on averageenergy generation, the plant willbe operatedas a peakingplant in conjunctionwith the upstreamLongyangpla plant. The power willbe suppliedto the NorthwestChina power networkand wiMlform a substant part of the totalsupply to the grid. 5.29 Gongboxla,In XunhuaCounty, Qinghai, will be constructedin the 1995-2010 period,probably in conjunctionwith Laxiwa, at an estimatedinvestment cost of Y 1.99 billion Cm1987 cumnt yuan). Halfof the investmentsare allocatedduring the 9th and halfduring the 10thFYPs.& The rockMifl133-m dam will commanda catchmentaea of 143,900km 2. Constructionis likely to take 6-7 years, with the first turbine set operationalin the sixth year.1l2 The total capacityof Gongboxia'sreservoir will be only 290 million m3 and effectivestorage capacity only 200 millionm&. The reservoirwill requirethe resettlementof 3,000 people and 5,300 mu of fairmland. As with most of the upstreampower projects,

IV Mostof thXmatial forthis description comes from YRCC, 1988, *Revised summary of the report on the YellowRiver harnessing and development planniug' and fromYRCC, 1992, 'Project Sketch Notes.

Ji/ YRCC,1988, A1par Rport on dte Stmdyof InwsieientPlan on the YellowRiver Basin. 1XI YRCCdisaos 3/92. il/ Normalsdtoge deevationis 2,452 m, YRCC,1988, 'Revised sway of the reporton Yellow Riverharnesng ad delpment plmaig .^ J1/ YRCC,1988, Prepartry Reporton the Studyof Invesm Planon the Yelow RiverBasin. fli YRCCdiscussions 3/92. -77 -

feasibilitystudies for the Gongboxiaproject have been carriedout by the NorthwestDesign Institute. With a maximumhead of almost 103 m, but limited daily storageand an instled capacityof 1,500MW, Gongboxia wil be operatedas a run-of-riverplant, supplyingpower to the NorthwestChina power network. The aveage anal energycapability of Gongboxiais 4,700 GWh.18/ A plant capacityfaor for Gongboxia,based on average energy, was calculatedat 35.8 percent. 5.30 The integrationof Daxia,Daliushu, Laxiwa, Gongboxia and Lijiaxiawill add 9,440MW of hydrogenerating capacity to the NWPNsystem and this willrequire a substantial investmentin transmissionfacilities to deliverthe powernot onlyto the grid but to the principal load centers. This additionis substantiaand, given the sizeof the load and the constrainson generaionrequirements for peakingpower, it is unlikelythat the capacitycan be fully utilized withinthe 2010horizon, unless it is usedto displaceenergy produced from coal-firedstations. Thereare weakties to the neighboringsystems (NCPN and CCPN);however, no substantial amountof powercapacity can be transferredto themwithout significant investments to reinforce the transmissionfacilities.

F. MuLTn'uaRs RESERVOIRS

5.31 laolagdi. TheXiaolangdi multipurpose project would construct a damabout 100km downstreamfrom Samnenia. It is primarilya floodcontrol project: apart from the dikes and the limitd remainingflood caryin capacityof Sanula it wouldbe the only defenseagainst floods on the lowerreach. Of its Inidal12.5 billionm of storage,4.1 billionin willbe reservedfor majorflood control. Ihis willbe sufficientto improvethe present1-in-O year floodprotection level to about 1-in-1,000years. 5.32 Xiaolangdi'ssecond purpose is to trap and controlsediment on the lowerreach. Overthe first 10-15years of its life, about7.5 billiontons of coarsesediment will be trapped, mostof whichwould otherwise contibute to the furtheraggaaon of the lowerreach charel. Afterthe reservoircomes to equibrium, it canbe operatedto pass floods(with the exception of majorfloods) and their sedimentloads, together with all of the stdimentaccumulated during the nonfloodseason, through the reservoirand the lower reach. Secondarybenefits of the projectinclude power generation and irrigation,municipal and industrial,and river mouthwater supply. 5.33 The annualincremental economic benefits of the projectat fulldevelopment have been estimatedto include$189 million flood damage,$81 million in postponeddike raising, $189million for power generation, and about $345 million for improvedirrigation. In addition, there are socialand environmentalbenefits which are difficultto measre in monetaryterms. Floodcontrol will substantiallyreduce the risk of loss of life from drowningin the case of a major dike breach. ITe enviromnentalimpact of uncontrolledflooding and diversionof a substantidalportion of the totalYellow River flow over a new courseto the sea, leaving700 km of establishedurban and rural Whsucture high and dry, wouldbe virtualy impossibleto calculate.

J18 Noal doragmd ionis 2005m, YRCC, 1988, Revisd wamay of thereport an Yellow River haressingand development planing.w -78 -

5.34 Wanjia".121 'he multipurposeWanjiazhai project is locatedon the main stemon the borderof Shani andInner Mongolia where the GreatWall meets the rivernear the town of Plnggun, Shanxi. MWRhas recentlyreesdmated project cos at Y 1.78 billion@ao costs includingtramission and resettlemenin 1991curren yuan;YRCC planners esdmated the cost in briefingmaterials as Y 1.08billion, in 1987aurent yuan). However,this totaldoes not Includethe costs of M&I diversionsto Shanxiand InnerMongolia, which will be borne by the respectiveprovinces. Approximately 65 percentof the investmentswill be allocatedunder the 8th FYP and the remainderunder the 9th FYP. 5.35 lhe projectis scheduledto beginconstruction toward the end of tie 8thFYP or the star of the 9th FYP (approximately1994/95) and to be completedby the end of the 9th or the start of the 10thFYP. The constuctionperiod is expectedto take 6.5 years, withpower generationfrom the first 180MW unit available in project year S. Feasibilitystudies have been completedby the TianjinDesign Institute & preliminarydesign work, also undetaken by TianjinDesign Institute, will be completedwithin two years. The dam will be a 90-m-high concreteearth and rock fill dam. Wanjiazhai'sactive storage will be 448 millionnil, out of a total caacity of 896 milion i. 5.36 Ihe main benefits of WanjiazhaiReservoir derive from water wpplyto municipalitiesand industriesIn coal-producingareas of Shanxiand InnerMongolia. Secondary benefitsinclude power generation and flood control,including ice-rn control. k Is expected thatWanjlazhal will supplyabout 1.4 billionni annuallyto water-shortareas In the Shi and Inner Mongoliaenergy base. In the inital period,Wanjiazhai wiUl supply 560 mllion m' to Datongand Yinshwoin Shand and 200 millionma to Zhungeerin InnerMongolia Theremay alsobe smal secondarybenefits from rural household consumption and irrigationalong the path of the M&I water diversions. With total shadow-pricedproject coss of Y 3.2 bilLIon(not includingwater supply costs), a salesprice of 31.25 fen/kWhand a 12 percentdicount rate, the net presentvalue (NPV)of the projectwas estimatedto be Y 348 million,with an estimated economicintenal rate of return RR) of 17 percentand a benefit-costratio of 1.16.

5.37 Wanjiazhaiis designedto operateas a peakingplanL Ihe proposedinstalled capacityis 1,080MW, with six unitsof 180MW, producing a guaranteedconminous output of 185 MW, and generatingon average2,632 GWhannually. Wanjiazhaiwill assumepeakng responsibilitesfor the Shanxiand InnerMongolia grids as well as supplyingthe NorthChina grid throughapproximately 100 km of transmissionlines. Giventhe relativelylow 3.4 percent hydro componentin the NorthChina grid Ci the Shanxiand Inner Mongoliagrids the hydro componentis almost zero), the extremelyrapid recent growth in peak demand, and the attractivenessof hydropowerfor peakidnguse, Wanjiazhaiappears to be a promisingoption. 5.38 Wanjiazhaiwill also play a role in floodconrol, protectingthe liaqiao run-of- river wors 94km downstream.Tianqiao was designed such that in a l in 500 year flood,the earthendam on Tianqiao'sright bank wouldhave to be destroyedto disca floodwatrs. Sincemost of Tinqiao's floodwatersarise aboveWanjiazbai, with Wanjiazhai flood operaon, Tianqiaocould safely pass regulated floodwmers without destruction of its damworks.Sinoe its Initi operationin 1977,Tianqiao has been plaguedby icejams causedby meltingupstream

12/ Muchof thissection is basedon 7UajinSurvey and Desig8 nstitue, 1991,Wm*hWa Projec hqposal anddiscusson with YRCC held in Marchp992 - 79 - flows encounteringthe still frozennorthern Inner Mongoliaand Shanxiriver. Storingthe ice in Wanjiazhai'sreservoir would greatly reduce ice jam damageat rianqiao. 5.39 Wanjiazhaiwill inundate3,782 mu of cultivatedland, 3,508 mu in Inne Mongoliaand 274 mu in Shanxi. Some2,930 people would need to be resettled,96 in Shani and 2,834in bInerMongolia. Resettlement costs are estdmatedat Y 104million (in 1991curret yuan). 5.40 Qlou.2IQ/ The Qikou multipurposereservoir wIll be locatedon the main stemnear the mouthof the QiushuiRiver at the townof Wubao,Shaanxi. The estimted cost of the projectis Y 2.44 billionin 1987yuan. Thistotal does not includethe costof transmission lines to the grid, the costs of potentialM&I diversionsto Taiyuan,Shanxi Province, nor the costsof downstreamhigh-lift irrigation schemes on bothbanks in Shaanxiand Shanxiprovinces whichmay be dependanton Qikoudry seasondischarges. These costs do includeresettlement costs. About41 percentof the investmentswould be allocatedunder the 9th FYP and the remainderunder the 10thFYP. A costbreakdown was not available. S.41 Constructionon the project is tentativelyscheduled to begin just after the completionof Xiaolangdi,late in the 9th FYP (1996-2000)or early in the 10thFYP (201Q05) and to be completedby the end of the lOthor the start of the I1th FYP(2006-11). Due to the difficultterrain at the ste, the constuctionperiod could well exceedten years. Feasibility sudies are beingundertaken by YRCC'sResearch, Planning and DesignInsdtite (RPDI)and wI be completedby the end of 1993. The damwill be earth and rock fill, 140m high. 5.42 The main benefitsof Qikou Reservoirderive from sedimt trapping and regulation,and powergeneration. Secondarybenefits include water supply,navigation, and flood control. It was also suggestedthat by ensuringa minimumdry seasondischarge of 400 m3/s, the projectmay also increasewater suppliesto five irrigationhigh-lift pumping schemes,existing or planned,below the reservoir. Theproject may also supplywater for M&I deands in Taiyuan. The projectwill permit navigation,primarily of coal, alongthe Fugu- Yumenlwuriver section. It willreduce peak discharges at the Qikoucross-section, stabilize the main streambelow Qikou and decreasesilt depositionand inundationlosses in areas around Sanmeaxia. Given the Y 2.44 billion cost estmate, an EIRR of 24.5 perceat was estlmated.2I YRCC and MWR representativesoffered only a qualitativediscussion of projectbenefits; cost and benefitstreams were not provided. 5.43 Thedesign storage level of the reservoiris 785m witha totalreservoir capacity of 12.48billion W. Of this totalcapacity, 2.78 billionm' wiUlbe retainedas long-tem storage and the remainder,9.7 billion mn, used for trapping 14.4billion tons of primarilycoarse sedimentftrm the seriouslyaffected Loess Plateau source area upstreamof Qikou. The reservoirwi be operatedin a fashionakin to thatof Sanmenxiaand Xiaolangdi.Initially, the teservoir's dead storage area will be used to trap sediments. After the reservoir has reached normalopeating levels, dry seasonflows will be storedand heavily sediment-laden flood season flows regulatedand flushed. In this way, it is expectedthat major investmenusin dike

2Q!Is disussionis ba_d on YRCCdis;sions 3/92. 2W YRCC,1988, Revist sumay an the rept on the YellowRiver harnesing and dwvelpnu plmig,n givesan EIR of 11.33peroent -80- strengtheningand raisingon the lowerreach embankments can be postponedfor 20 years. The questionof silt managementunder joint Qikou-Sanmenxia-Xiaolangdioperation and the likely effectson lowerreach deposition over time remains somewhat open. Nonetheless,YRCC RPDI expectsthat the projectwill be ableto capturesediment management benefits of a magnitude similarto thosequantified for Xiaolangdi. 5.44 The proposedinstalled capacity of QikouIs 1,500MW, producinginitially a guaranteedcontinuous output of 349 MW, decreasingto 298 MW in the laterproject period. In the early period, powergeneration will average5,150 GWh, decreasingto 4,750 GWhin laterperiods. Thispower will be suppliedeither to the NorthChina grid throughapproximately 200 km of transmissionlines to a connectionat Taiyuan,Shanxi, or to the NorthwestChina grid throughconnections of unknownlength in Shaanxi. 5.45 YRCC RPDI officials ascribed two different water supply benefits to Qikou-benefitsfrom potentiallift diversionsfrom the reservoirfor M&I water supply in Taiyuanand benefitsfrom high-lift irrigation and M&Iwater supplyalong both banks of the main stem in Shaanxiand Shanxiprovinces below Yumenkou. Both areas currentlysuffer seasonalwater shortages which are likelyto intensifyin the future. The fivehigh-lift irrigation areas,Donglei II and YumenkouII (bothunder construction) in Shaanxiand Yumenkou,Zuncun (existing)and Beizhaoin Shanxi,are provincialprojects approved for the 8th FYP or tentatively proposedfor inclusionin the 9th FYP. 5.46 The guaranteed400 m3/sdry seasonQikou discharge will also permitbarge transportto be developedon the Fugu-Yumenkouriver section,along with Inner Mongolia and Shandong,one of the three major navigableriver sectionsin the basin. At present, water transportis not feasiblebecause of low dry seasonflows. The Ministryof Communications estimatesthat withQikou, by 2010river transportfreight volume will reach 37.5 milliontons, of which26.3 milliontons willbe coal. 5.47 The projecthas severalflood control benefits. The projectwill reducepeak dischargesat the Qikoucross-section by between69-80 percent. This will stabilizethe main streambelow Qikou to facilitatewithdrawals from the pumpingschemes along both banks. To a smallextent, reduced discharges will also limitsilt depositionand inundationlosses in areas around Sanmenxia,where some hundred thousandformerly resettledSanmeuxia farmers currendyreside. About53,700 people currently reside in the proposedreservoir area and there are no significanttowns or other infrastructurewhich would be affected. Inundatedcultivated land is estimatedto be 78,300mu. 5.48 Daliushu.21/ The Daliushu multipurposereservoir will be located in ZhongweiCounty, Ningxia Province, near the Ningxia-Gansuprovincial border, on the main stemat the exit of the HeishanGorges and the entryto the NingxiaPlains. The estimatedcost of the projectis Y 6.8 billion. Thistotal includesthe cost of the mainearth and rock fill dam and damworks, resetflement costs and costsof the mainsand pumpingstations in the irrigation districtsserved. Thetotal cost does not includeon-farm costs below the mainsin the irrigation districtsnor the costs of transmissionlines to the grid. Tentatively,41 percentof the main

ZZI Muchof thisdiscu is basedon YRCCRPDI, 1990, Concise DallUshu Plandng and Research Report,and MWR (no dat), -Abrief ioduetion toplanning on theHiibsnxia tiver secti and the Daiushuptoject.L - 81 - complexcosts wouldbe allocaedunder the 9th FYP and the remainderunder the 10thFYP. No detailswere offered concerning the allocationof irrigationarea costs. However,since the affected provinces, Gansu, Ningxia, Shaawd and Inner Mongolia,have different views concerningproject siting and scope,both project costs and cost allocationsare likelyto change substantialyduring the feasibilityand design period. A projectcost breakdownwas not avaiale. 5.49 Constructionon the projectis scheduledto beginduring the 9th FYP or early in the 10thFYP and to be completedby the end of the 10thor the startof the 11th. However, due to differencesbetween Gansu, where the reservoirarea lies, and the three beneficiary provinces, Ningxia, Inner Mongoliaand Shaanxi, and between differentwater end-users, MOE and MWR,feasibility and designwork is likelyto be quiteextended and constructiondelayed. Feasibilitystudies on a singlehigh dam proposal are beingjointly undertaken by YRCCRPDI (for the irrigationdistricts) and TranjinDesign Institute(for the dam site). The YRCC preliminaryirrigation planning report Is finishedand the Tianjindam-site design study is ongoing.

5.50 Ihe Northwestr isignInstitute has conductedfeasibility studies on a cascade project,which includes a low dam20 kn up the HeishanGorges at Xiaoguanyinin Gansuand a low damat Daliushu,the Gansuoption. Ihe cascadeproject would feature power generation fromthe XiaoguanyinReservoir (for Gansu)and run-of-river power generation and liftirrigation from the low dam at Dallushu(for the downstreambeneficiary areas). The water levelof the Daliushuhigh dam and the Xiaoguanyinlow dam wouldbe the same. Investmentsand inundatonlosses of the twooptions are quitesimilar. YRCCRPDI has undertakenan economic comparisonof thesetwo differentproposals. The criticaldifference lies in the respectivelong- term storagecapacities. Due to differingreservoir conditions, the XiaoguanyinReservoir would stop trappingsediment in deadstorage after only20 years, leaving4.5 billionmn of long-term activestorage. By contast, the Daliushuhigh dam reservoircan trap sedimentsfor almost50 years, whileafter 20 years 8.2 billionmn active storage will be retained. 5.51 Additionalattractive features of the Daliushuhigh dam include its abilityto fully assumeresponsibility for ice run and floodcontrol, and downstreamdry seasonwater supply, increasingfirm power in the upstreamhydropower system (Longyangxia, Lijiaxia, Liujiaxia, Yanguoxiaand Bapanxia)by 200 MWand ensuringat least 250m3/s flow at Hekouzhenduring the dry season. Thecascade facility cannot fully carry out theseresponsibilities and as a result Liujiaxiawill still needto be operatedto controlice run and to maintainminimum dry season flowsat Hekouzhen.Therefore, upstream hydropower system firm power will increase by only 155 MW. Due to the great distancebetween Liujiaxia and Hekouzhen,minimum dry season flowsat Hekouzhenare less assured,reducing benefits from the cascadeoption to downstream water supply. The economiccomparison did not considerdifferences in irrigationarea that mightbe due to increasesin pumpingcosts with the cascadeoption. YRCCand MWRstressed that on purelyeconomic grounds, the singlehigh dam at Daliushuwas the preferredproposal and subsequentdiscussion focuses on this proposal. 5.52 Daliushuis expectedto take fourth priorityafter Xiaolangdi,Wanjia2hai and Qikou. This reflectsa relavely recentshift in planningemphasis away from Daliushu, with its potentallydivisive interprovincial water allocation conflicts, and towardcontinuing efforts for lowerreach sedimen control in the wakeof Xiaolangdi. -82 -

5.53 Ihe main benefitsof DaliushuReservoir would derive from irrigation,power generation,flood control (including Ice-nu control)and downstreamwater supply. Giventhe Y 6.8 billion cost estimate, an EIRR of 7.43 percent was estmated. YRCC and MWR sopolp112fe offered only a qualitativediscussion of project benefits; cost and benefit breakdownsand streamswere not provided.

5.54 The 5.3 billion en effective reservoir capacity (5.73 billion i of the total resevoir capacityof 11.03billion nin will be filledwith coarse silts over50 years)will be used primarilyfor irrigationsupply by gravityand liftto 19.2million mu In 16 counties(13 counties in the initialperiod) in two majornew irrigationdistricts on eachbank, the Easternand Western IrrigationDisrcts. TbeInstaled capacity of Daliushuwould be 1,920MW, producing initially a guanted continuousoutput of 530 MW. Powergeneration will average 8,070 GWh. This powerwil be suppliedto the NorthwestChina grid througha connectionof about 100km to Q IngonxIn Ningxia.Due to Daliushu'soperation as a reregulatingreservoir for downstream flood control and water supply, continuouspower generationupstream in the two major reservoirs(Longyangxia and Liujiaxia)and three large nm-of-riverplants can increaseby 200 MW(1,752 GWh). Powergeneration could begin in a partialfashion after 7 yearsand fill powergeneration could be availablein the ninthyear. 5.5S Cultivatedland inundatedby Daliushuwould total 50,000mu, 48,000 mu in Gau and 2,000mu In Ningxia.Fifty-five thousand people wouJd need to be resetlled,53,000 from Gansuand 2,000 from Ningxia. The projectsiting willbe designedto restrictreservoir talwaters to the edgeof Jinguan County,Gansu.-2 Resettlementcosts are not includedin totalproject costs. 5.56 Lorgmen. LongmenMultipurpose Reservoir, straddling Yinchuan County, Shaanx and Ji County,Shanxi, has an estimatedinvestment cost of Y 5.5billion (in 1989 mur yuan).2AI The earth and rockfdll,216-m-high dam at Longmenwould command a catchent area of 496,000 knW. The total capacityof Longmenreservoir would be 11.4billion mn and effectivestorage capacity 4.36 billionin. The reservoirwould inundate 3,600people and 18,600mu of farmland.With a maximumhead of 199m, Longmenwould have an installedcapacity of 2,100 MW and an averageannual energy capabilityof 7,950 GWh.Z: 5.57 Longmencan ameliorate flood overflow and silting in Sanmenxiaby controlling floodingand siltingabove Sanmenxia. The reservoirwould have a totalsilt trappingcapacity of 9.7 billiontons, and can controlflooding from storm surgesoriginatng aboveLongmen. Longmensregulation capabilities also wouldpermit development of large-scalewarping basins below the dam-siteand SanmenxiaReservoir, power generation, irrigation and water supply. However,Longmen's role in flood and sedimentcontrol is only in conjunctionwith other downsteam main-stemfacilities, specifically Sanmenxia and Xiaolangdi. Longmencannot controleither floods or sedimentdelivery fiom the Wei, Fenand otherbasins between Longmen

2U/ YRCCdi_sso 3/92.

23! YRCCand CYJV,1991, TheXiolangdi Projea, VolumeI. 21I NODmldone elevationis 590mi, YRCC, 1988, 'Revised nummasyof the reporton YellowRiver barsig anddevopment planning.w - 83 - and Huayvanou. Oncedead storage is filledwith coarse sediments, the reservoirwould play a rlatively smallrole in sedimentcontrol on the lowerYellow River, due to the scouringand adjustmets of the meanderngcourses which enter the main stem betweenthe dam-siteand Sanmenx2itZ 5.58 The area to be inundatedis significantfor its archeologicaltreasures, and is an importanttourist atraction. Constructionwould most likely meet strong objectionsfrom enirownentaulsts.If undertakenat all, Longmenwould be beyondthe horizonfor this study, and thereforewill not be inludedin the ensuinganalysis.

G. TRADEOm AMONGINVESTM OPrlONS

S.59 Coradictions betweenobjectives have an immediateimpact on basin water managementand especiallyon theefficacy of proposedinvestment options. Lowerreach flood managementrequis contiwnoussediment control, dike raising,warping and river trainn on the lowerreach, silt retentionon the LoessPlateau, silt flushing,and the abilityto regulatestorm surges,wheter throughdetention basins, floodways or storage.However, both sediment control and surge regulation measures have significant consequencesfor all other basin objectives-Irrigion, watersupply, power generation and distribudonal concerns. Hydropower opetions Induceseasonal conflicts with irrigationreleases, flood control,sediment control (whichnecessiaes flushingafter heavilysilt-laden storms), and with Ice-runcontrol (which requres thatlarge flows be releasedprior to freezingto expandthe channelcross-sectional area andredced afterIcing and prior to thawingto preventice jams from forming), while navigation and watersupply also requireconstant releases. Critcal interregionaland intesectoralequity concera add to the complexityof managementand investmentdecision-making. Further, the sequen of different management,policy and investmentmeasures has significant consequencesfor howtbasin objectives are met. 5.60 Onlya consistentand comprehensivebasin-wide framework provide the means for assessingthe impactsof the variousoptions on basinobjectives and determiningthe relative tradeoffsamong investment options. The followingtwo chapters address these issues within just such a famework,the BI M. Thissection attempts to highlightthe keytradeoffs among options In a qualitativemanmer. 5.61 Low Reach Flood and SedimentControl. A nuiriberof the investment options were consideredto deal with one or more aspectsof lower reach flood control, specifically: (a) the ongoinglower reachflood control works like dike raising,strengthening, warping,detention basin rehabilitation, and river trainingworks;

O) soil and waterconservation programs in the LoessPlateau; (c) large-scalewarping schemes; (d) improvementsin waterutilization that free up waterfor sedimentflushing;

2k/ YRCC,1988, 'Revised mu_mry of the reporton Yllow Riverharnessing and developmet PlAnning. -84-

(e) multiyearstorage at LongyangxiaReservoir; and (M) constructionof a seriesof middlereach storage and silt trappingreservoirs. A numberof otheroptions-te use of YangtzeRiver transfers for sedimentscouring, excavation of an emergencyfloodway, covtrolleddike breaches, and constructionof a new river channe-were rejected on technica, socW disruptiondue to resettlement,cost and risk managementgunds In the preliminayplanning stage.

5.62 Theflrst floodcontrol option mainta existingcontrol standards at considerable cost and improvesfarm production on the floodplainbetween the maindikes. However,it does not handlelarge storm surges, and cannotbe continuedindefinitely in the absenceof other sedimentor flood controlmeasures. At fuhlldevelopment, the secondoption is expectedto reducedeposition in the lowerchannel by one third whileimproving severely degraded Loess Plateauaas and alleviatingpoverty. On the other hand, it does not improveflood surge protection. Large-scalewarping on the middleand lower reach floodplainwill significantly reducedeposition while markedly improving the floodplainbetween the dikes. However,in the absenceof large and expensiveupstream regulating facilities near the plannedwarping areas camnotbe uftlized. Again, in the absenceof other measures,no flood surge protectionis affrded. Improvementsin water utilizationwill free up 'excess water' for potentialuse in flushingsediment and reducingdeposition. However, in the absenceof other measures,it is difficultto see how this watercould be 'flushed' and even if combinedwith measures (a) and (b)and (c) above,no furtherflood surge protection is afforded.At present,the solemultiannual storagereservoir on the basin,Longyangxia, is operated(by MOE) solely for powergeneration. It Is conceivablethat this reservoircould be operatedto partiallyreduce floods and reduce sedimentdeposition by flushing(or, by the sametoken, to increasedownstream water supply and irrigation). However,aside from the conflictswith powergeneration that such operation wouldinduce, Longyangxia, far upstream,is toodistant to be effectivein reducingstorm surges or regulati sedimentdeliveries that arise throughmost of the river's course,including the LoessPlateau. 5.63 Thelast option,construction of Xiaolangdi,Qikou and Longmen reservoirs, has large and compleximpacts on all basinobjectives. Xiaolangdi,alone, will go a long way to addresslower reachflood surge and sedimentregulation, while it holdspromise for irrigation andhydropower. However, the reservoirsare veryexpensive and the natureof their interaction withother basinfacilities, basin-wide and regionalwater supply and demand,and other basin objecives, is highlydependent on the extent and timing of runoff, water demand,pricing structures,management policies, the presenceand sequencingof other facilitiesand control measures,and reservoiroperating rules. 5.64 Improvingand ExtendingIrrIgation Benefits. All of the optionsdiscussed above will contributein some fashionto improvingeconomic value added from irrigated agricultureIn the basin. However,most of theseprograms, whether in conjunctionwith other measuresor as stand-aloneirrigation projects, will feature very real tradeoffswith many of the otherbasin objectives. To the ex that these programsfocus on completingsecondary and tetiary systemworks, on rehabilitatingand improving conveyance works, drainage systems and conjunctiveuse systems,and on demandmangement reforms, they are likelyto havepositive Impacts,though cost-effectiveness, iming and reliabilityof watersupply, impacts on important shlaow aquifers,and the nature of regionalwater allocationaccords wil remaincritical - 85 - concerns.By contrast, given the growingwater scarcities, a focuson irrigationexpansion would need to painstakinglyassess all of the requiredwater allocationsand examinetradeoffs along withtheir distributionalconsequences.

5.65 Power Generadon.Although improvements in wateruse andsediment control can have some minor impactson power genertion, the majoroptions for increasingpower generationrelate to the constructionof large multipurposereservoirs and run-of-riverplants. The competitionbetween operation of these worksfor hydropowergeneraton and for other Basinobjectives has been discussed in paras. 1.34-1.36and above. It is quitemyopic to analyze hydropowerbenefits without considering the effectof the likelyresponsibilites for floodcontrol, irrigation,water supply,navigation, etc. In additionto these impacts,and cost-effectiveness issues,tradeoffs among major facilities must also includethe sequencingof investmentsin other works,their proposedoperation and interaction,and the effectsof proposedinvestments on regionaland nationalgrids. For instance,Xiaolangdi's operations cannot be assessedwithout consideringthe likely operationof Sannenxiaand the efficacyof upstreamsoU and water conservationmeasures. The benefitsof Daliushuare realized, in part, from increasesin upstreampower system generation that are onlypossible if Daliushucan take over middle reach flood and ice-run-controlresponsibilities. The proposedinvestments In numerousupstream hydropowerfacilities greatly increase the alreadylarge share of hydro on the NWPNand regionalgrids and may engendertechnical and cost concernsrelating to grid connecdonsand intergridlinks.

5.66 'Rational" Water Allation. The primary concernis to ensurethat basin-wide waterneeds can be met withreasonable reliability in the mediumand longer term. Of secondary concernare regionalscarcities and regional allocation accords. Mostof the investmentoptions havebeen designed to augmentbasin water supply or changethe extentor timingof basinwater demandsto balancesupply and demand. However, many of the optionswill also have important regionaland intersectoralwater allocation impacts which will temper their positive contributions to the water balance. The most obviousexamples are the host of proposed upstream irrigation expansionprograms, which thoughfalling withinregional allocation limits, may reduce the effectivenessof proposeddownstream multipurpose facilites. Clearly,there are complicated tradeoffsamong options with respectto meetingbasin-wide and regionalwater balances, especiallyas water shortagesgrow and regionalallocation agreements become ever more constraining.

5.67 EnvironmentalReconstruction and EconomicDevelopment in the Loess Plateau. Onlythe soil and waterconservation efforts and, to a lesser, extentthe construction of DaliushuReservoir can addressthese objectives. As discussedabove and In Annex2, if successful,the soil and water conservationefforts can have a markedeffect on ameliorating severelydegraded areas, on alleviationof povertyin the LoessPlateau, and on reductionof sedimentdeposition in the lower reachchannel. The constructionof the DaliushuReservoir wouldeventually permit some desert lands in the LoessPlateau to be transformedinto irrigable areas. However,this long-termirrigation expansion may not be cost effectiveand probably conflictswith other middle and lower reach water supply and irrigationneeds, and with regional water allocationaccords. 5.68 Due to overpopulationand the fragilityof the naturalenvironment, the remote, heavilyeroded Loess Platea andthe cold,high, and aridYellow River upper reaches have long been amongChina's principal poverty-stricken regions. They are also the least efficientwater users. Water retentionin the soil is very limited,and gully and sheet erosionare common. -86-

Deivey and field loses a etrmely hi, and many areas must be served by eneW- ntsive, higlift pumpingshemes. As waterscarcites grow, th waterused In tese regions will havean r higheropportnity cost downrm. 5.69 Untnately, his studyIs wt equippedto evauatetie rative efficacyof eiher the soil and war consevationdforts or the DaliushuReservoir in allatg povertycompared with ptogams which focuson out-migrationand reselemet. Nevertheless,the partcular bnefts of the poposed soil andwat conervationcampaig are lge and evenIf sizableout- migraionand resoement prgm couldbe successfuilymounted (and it is likelytha they wouldface sifcae politicaland cultural oppositon), there remains a pracdctlradonale for coninuingsoil and water conservaion efons upstreamto reducesedimen delivery downstream. - 87-

6 WATER BALANCEIN T YEAR 2000

6.1 Thischapter begins to lookto theam and emptsto quantifyhe&coots that will constraindevelopment in the basin. It givesa preliminaryasseim of the conribution the investmentsdescribed in Chapter5 will maketo that development. A. YRCC PROJWrIONS

6.2 ATeonly prior attempt to projectthe basicwat sectorpramen intothe fite was undertakenby YRCC and is describedin Chapter4 for 1990. Table 6.1 gives the projectionsto 2000,together with the impliedgrowth rates from 1990to 2000. Note Ihatthe rnoff assumed is the sameas thatYRCC employed for the 1990exercIe (Table4.3, P50 case). 6.3 Theseprojections call for increasesin diversionsat a 2.2 percentanmul grow rate, while consumptiongrows slighty slower, at 1.9 percent. However,the icres are highlyuneven, and do not appearcorrelated to the expandedirrigated area (discud below). Virtuallyall of the increaseIs confinedto Region4 (LoessPlateau), and Regions 5 and 6. The projectionsinclude those of shortages,or -geted diversionsless what is taslated as "possible." T7hesetotal 1.65 billionm&, and ue most pronouncedin the middlereach from Hekouzhento Huayuankou.These projections continue the inexplicablepractice of excluding most of the irrigatedarea in Henan and ShMdongwhich falls outsidethe main dikes; the 2.76 billionm3 allocation implied in thesefigures is but a fracion of the currentdiversion to these prwinces, let alone what will be required in 2000. Hence the projectionsof shortages-however,defined-are probablyfar too optimic.

B. SiWulATioNsbY THEBLM

6.4 Projectionswere made using the BLMto providea consstoenand documented frameworkfor investigatingfuture water balances and the effectivenessof the planed investmentdesctibed in Chapter5. Thefollowing sectio summarizethe changesrequired to do this and the underlyingassumptions. EffectiveIrrlgated Area 6.5 As a resultof currentand plannedinvestments to extendthe irrigatedarea, the effectivearea in 2000will increasein all zones. 7he amountcannot be projectedwith certainty becausein*fmation is Incomplete.According to Table 5.1, 19.52million mu of effctive area willbe addedby the provincialinvestment plans, about 12 millionmu of whichwill be supplied by surfacewater. However,this total is lnownto be understatedon two acouts. Tbedetailed plansfor the lowerreach obtained for preparationof the Xiaolangdlproject indicate that Henan and Shandonghave firm plans to expand the area irrigatedby surace water by 8 and - 88 -

Table6.1: YRCC PRQoEjrIoNsTO 2000 (billionmn)

Poasl- Shott- Cosuemp- Reglo« tuoff STaiet blo age t2On Rout"r

1 19.90 0.33 0.33 0.00 0.26 0.07 2 11.41 2.86 2.84 0.02 2.28 0.55 3 0.85 12.06 11.92 0.14 10.19 1.72 4 6.24 2.91 2.90 0.00 2.57 0.33 5 12.58 10.84 9.53 1.31 7.28 2.25 6 5.05 3.23 3.10 0.13 2.61 0.49 7 2.00 2.80 2.76 0.04 2.20 0.56 "air. 58.02 35.03 33.37 1.65 27.39 5.99 bah Above Lanshou 1 & 2 31.31 3.19 3.17 0.02 2.54 0.62 Ianshon-hkonsbous 3A & 3B 0.85 12.06 11.92 0.14 10.19 1.72 I.kousb.ea-Buayuankon 4 - 6 23.87 16.98 15.52 1.45 12.45 3.07 -uayuankou-AljSn 7As 73 2.00 2.80 2.76 0.04 2.20 0.56 D.Wal zBeam SLO0 M.0 33.37 1.6LS ZZI SI.

Growth Rate8 (1990-2000)

1 3.72 3.72 - 4.22 2.0S 2 1.92 1.82 - 1.42 3.62 3 0.12 0.02 - 0.62 -2.92 4 10.22 10.22 - 11.82 2.62 33.12 3.12 3.32 1.3X 14.32 6 3.32 3.32 4.52 4.62 -1.72 7 1.52 1.62 -6.02 1.21 3.52 8 In 2.22 2.12 4.12 1.92 2.72 badh Above Lnhonu 1 & 2 2.12 2.02 - 1.72 3.42 lanshon-NEkoabouh 3A & 3B 0.12 0.02 - 0.62 -2.92 Ebkoushen-Nuayusakou 4 - 6 4.1S 4.12 3.42 3.4Z 7.92 Iuayuaiahou-Liai 7A# 7B 1.5S 1.62 -6.02 1.22 3.52 Doia 222 4.2.14.12 1.92 2.

9 milMionmu, respectively,notthe 3.2 millionmu totalembedded in the 12mfllion mu. Adding these areas producesthe total effectivearea of 85.6 millionmu shown under "2000" in Table6.2. However,these totals ae stl lowerbound esates becaue Y 3.6 billionof "basin- widewrirgation investments (also from Table5.1) have not been identified. These involve inrea in efectiveirrigated area as wellas othercomponents. In all, at least25.9 millionmu willbe addedto the ar suppliedby surfae water,and 1.3 million mu to conjunctive-useareas. As will be seen shortly, the exact magitudes are not importantgiven the limited water avaability;there Is no scenarioIn whichthe systemwill be ableto fullyexploit all of this area. - 89 -

Table 62: CuRwENTAND 2000 IRRGATEDAREA (milon mu)

Surface vat2y irrigated area Con5inctive use area Region 1990 2000 1990 2000

1 0.167 1.042 U.a. U.M. 2 3.334 4.898 n.a. n..a 3A 5.242 6.567 0.096 0.120 3B 8.795 11.019 0.795 0.996 4 3.630 3.765 0.029 0.030 5A 5.518 6.345 1.319 1.517 5B 12.740 14.545 U.a. u.s. 6 2.286 2.515 0.823 0.906 7A 2.844 10.686 1.941 2.314 73 15.369 24.425 2.198 2.575 Total 59.925 85.6L6 7.201 8.458 na. No conjunctiveuse. Source: Derivedfrom a regionalallocadon of provinch plansas descrbedIn Chapter5.

Distibuton EffiencIes 6.6 With approximately40 percen more area to irrigatein a systemthat Is already exhibitngperiodic stress, plans for expansionwould be il consiered without Improved disbution efficiencies.Effort to improvethe efficiencyof the system,at all levelsand in all regions,are cotnuing andincluded in manyof the provincial-levelprojects.

6.7 Efficiencyimprovement would have significant saving. Themai iemen are descrbetdIn paras. 5.24-5.25. Canalefficiencies and field efficiencies,which combined resultin totalsystem efficiency, are shownIn Table6.3 fo the 1990base and 2000. 6.8 Althoughthe magnitudesapper small,they have a very large impacton the system. For example,the efficienciesimply that In 1990,it ts 2.14 m' of water divrted fiom the mainsnm tpro rvle I m at thefrs field level in Region6. he 2000 efficienciesimply tha this dropsto 1.9-a savingsof 11 percent. Clearly,the achievementof these efficienciesI citic to the fire performan of the system,as willbe preene later. New Projecs 6.9 Main-stemprojects affecding the 2000scenario are onfinedto nu-of-riverpower plantswith only daflyregulation. Tbese,descied in Capter 5, are confinedto Ujiaxa and DaL -90 -

Table 63: CANAL AND FELD EMCENCIES*1990 MAD 2000

Canal efficiencles Field efficiencies Region 1990 2000 1990 2000

1 0.55 0.59 0.85 0.85 2 0.55 0.59 0.85 0.85 3A 0.51 0.57 0.50 0.60 35 0.53 0.58 0.50 0.60 4 0.56 0.60 0.81 0.83 SA 0.54 0.60 0.88 0.90 5S 0.55 0.60 0.85 0.875 6 0.55 0.60 0.85 0.875 7A 0.54 0.60 0.70 0.75 7B 0.54 0.60 0.88 0.90

6.10 TheXaolangdl Resavoi is notconsidered for the2000 scenario because it could onlybe complete In 2001 or 2002. Itmay producesome flood control benefits earlier, but thes do not affectthe model. TheGuxian Reservoir on tie LuoHeRiver will be completed priorto 2000,buttdls rmevoir is notIncluded In the modelbecause of Its levelof aggrgation.

Crop YWds

6.11 Crop yields can be expected to grow overtime for a variety of reasons, including the spreadof newvaies andtechniques; more widespread use of fertilizers,insecticides, and posdtides;and more Intsive use of resourcesIn generalas pricespaid to farm increase. Average yields In all regions will also increase as a result of new projects which include packgageof recommendedbput as wel as extensionsand Improvementsto landresources, and more reliable irrigationwatr supplies.To accountfor these improvemens,average crop yields in each regionar iesed at a 2 percent annual rate between 1990 and 2000.

P1ces and Cobs 6.12 World Bank projecdonsof agriculturaloutput and input prices, and project apprais ea of produedoncots for the year 2000are available,and weretested in the 2000model. Thesedid not materiallyaffect the solutionand the 1990prices were retained so tht meaures of valueo! producdonand valueadded could be readilycompared over solution years. PoplaIoo gandLabor Force 6.13 The roal populationand farm labor force will probablycontinue to show somincrese to the year2000. However,these data do not directy affectthe modelbecause it hmplitly asumes thatlabor Is not, nor will become,a constrainingfactor. Farmpopulation and resiona popuaon ate of Interestto this analysisonly whenit Is desiredto modelresults su as valueadded ad grain productionon a per capitabasis. For this purposeonly, we -91 -

asumeht farmpopation wll be 85.4mllion in 2000and rura populationwill be 111.7 milion (anImplied growth rae of 0.66 pert forboth opulao). 2000 Soludo 6.14 Table6.4 reot summayvaiables fthcoming from the ba 2000soutons. First,these reuts shouldcompa with hos fromthe YRCC projoctios fromthe same urce andhav thesame deinitionl problems as the 1990 c. Tabl 6.S showsthe comparbon for thePSO imow scenao. Aswas the cas withthe 1990 compaIson, the BLd matchesYRCC's

Tabl 6.: RzsuLisiFm TUzMoD SoLunow 'OR2000

Probability P25 P50 P75 P90 "Average"

rXrologm La Totalrunoff 69.59 56.35 48.94 39.71 58.29 Losses 3.27 2.77 2.49 2.20 2.84 Net diversion. 37.57 35.43 33.35 30.10 35.45 To sea 28.75 18.15 13.10 7.41 19.83 Gross Dl rsions I& To agriculture 38.63 36.31 34.04 30.50 36.32 To M&I 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 Total 44.48 42.16 39.89 36.35 42.17 Shortage 3*40 5.73 7.99 11.53 5.70

AErlculZrme1k Irrigatedarea 120.46 120.17 117.76 103.14 119.46 Rainfed area 1.49 1.76 4.18 18.80 2.47 Grainoutput J1 30.65 29.17 27.44 23.96 29.08 Gross output 1 36.41 35.29 33*85 30416 35.18 Value added 1 27.05 25.95 24.70 22.59 25.90 Energy/e Total 31.66 24.65 20.44 17.42 25.58 Bsse load 23.77 17.64 13.98 11.38 18.46 Pesking 7.88 7.01 6.46 6.04 7.11 Valueit 3.93 3.33 2.97 2.70 3.4i

LAHydrology vbles in biion MO. CrppIngam vablaes Inmiion mu. k Grainoutpu in millio tons. L4 Agriculrlgo outputin billionyu; agrula valueadded In bilion yu Ery ouwutin houandgiw hos; Aowrag valuesrefe to averageof P25,P50, P75 values. ff PeakingpowOF valued at 36 fWh; basekld at 4.6 fen/kWh. -92 -

Table 6.5: ftoIE O FROMTfE YRCCUTJXIoN STU COMAREDTO BLM SMUATION

ForYear 2000 YRCC BLI Region Diversions Consumption Diversions Consumption

1 0.33 0.26 0.61 0.54 2 2486 2.28 3.21 2.64 3 12*06 10.19 12.09 10.05 4 2.74 2.50 2.08 1.67 5 10.84 7.28 10.52 8.59 6 3.23 2.61 2.58 1.57 7 2.80 2.20 10.10 9.28

IaSin total 34.86 27.32 41.17 34.36

Total (1-6) 32.06 25.12 31.07 25.08 Percentagedifference -3.1X -0.01 proJectionsof tot consumptionwith remarkble precisionfor Regions1-6, consideringthe diffeences I underlting assumptions.lJ From what we know of YRCC's method,the effetve rigated areasused vary considerablyfrom thoseof the model,which are basedon more up-to-da informaion. Furthemore, YRCCassumed that Xiaolangdiand Wanjiazhal reservoirswould be operativeby 2000, an asumptionwhich is no longervalid and is notused for the 2000version of the BLM. XTaolangdiwould probably not havea significantImpact on divsions givenYRCC's definitdon of Region7, but it wouldhave the capacityto divertabout 1.6billion m' per year to M&Mand mininguses, whichexplains why YRCC'sdiversions are greaterthan the model's. Nevertheless,the closenessof totaldiversions reflects a totalpicture of the basinIn 2000which is sharedat leastby YRCCs earlieranalysis. 6.15 Thebasin-level projections to 2000reveal fairly impressive growth in all sectors, as shownin Table 6.6. The expansionof effectiveirrigated area combinedwith the assumed 2 percentgrowth rate in cropyields leads to a 5.4 percentgrowth in grainoutput, a 6.2 percent growthin totaloutput, and a 6.5 percentgrowth in valueadded. In fact, the 12+ millionton hinreasein grainproduction from surface water-irrigated area alone(the only category explicitly modeledin the BLM)implies that the gain deficitsprojected for 2000can be eliminated.Value addedin agriculture,despite its definitionin economicprices, is the best proxy for farm incomes. It nearly doubles,from Y 163per capitato 307 per capita. Hydropowerenergy ouput growsat about3 percentas a resultof the addedfacilities despite smaller flows In general causedby the increaseddiversions. Totalnet (of returns)diversions increase at a 1.9 percent rate (exactymatching the YRCCprojections for 'consumption'from Table6.1), by a totalof

1/ Recll tat th definitionof Region employedby YRCColy includedthe aas betweende mn dks, andnot dhent of Hean and Shdong iigad by YelowRiver wat, whichis usedin dieLM naldysis. -93 -

Table 6.6: GRaowTHErrZwN 1990 AND 2000 M50ScENAmRos)

Growth 1990 2000 rate (Z)

Diversions(billiOn n) To a&riculture 32.27 36.31 1.2 TO M&I 3.19 5.85 6.3 TotalnOt 29.28 35.43 1.9 Agriculture(million mu) Effectivearea 59.92 85.62 3.6 Irrigatedrrea 82.32 120.17 3.9 Grainoutput 18.16 30.65 5.4 Grossoutput 19.30 35.29 6.2 Valueadded 13.06 25.95 7.1 VA/p.c. 163 307 6.5 RneraV Baseload 12.89 17.64 3.2 Peakload 5.29 7.01 2.9 Total 18.18 24.65 3.1

6.15 billionm'. Notehat the toWal of net divesions,35.4 billionin' in thisPSO case, is very close to the avible total of 37 billion in which the YRCCassumes for 2000 under is allocationpolicy. In the P25case (Table6.4), the 37 bilion m?of totalwas In fact exceeded, but onlyby 0.6 billionm?.ZI 6.16 Wenow tn to the irrigationrelatedaspects of the 2000simulations. Note fst (fromTable 6.4) thatin the modelthe entre effectivearea cannotbe irit underany inflow scenariobecause the area Increes fom about60 millionmu to nearly86 milion mu. About 2.5 millon mu averageof inducedainted area showsup. UnderP25 and PSOinflows, tainted areu are coninedto RegionSA for the sameresons as Inthe 1990soludons: insufficient mnoff In tie Fen Basincombined with iuffic pumpingcapaciy fromthe mainstem However, in the dryer inflows,the iduced raid aa spreadsto Regio 53 and the lower reach regis. In the P90 scenario, nly 19mllion mu, the blk of thenewly expMdedarea, cano be Irrigated.In additon, themodel indicates considerable crop yield stressin yieldsof cor in 5A, SB, 7A and 7B, and wheatin 7B-evenIn a P5Oyear. ThIisI due tothe watershoruges alsoshown Table 6.4 whichappear in all of the mentionedregions and total about 5.7 bilion en. Notedeatthese shortages range up to 8.0 billionne(P75) and 11.5bilion e (P90)(Table 6.4).

21 Giventhem ults,no a wasmade to costoin th pwvnia divesios to theirdacatin limits Ihis willbeow necessayindh 2010suons. - 94-

C. VARIATIONSON THE2000 SIMULATIONS

The "Sediment"Contrint

6.17 Basedon the analysisof Amex 2. theBLMfor 2000 reqrethat7S pere of the 1990flows to the seabe metto ensureadequate sediment flushing. Ihe 75 percentflushing needsof 1990values was basedon the generaltend of reducedsedimnt as a resultof sl consevatnmeasures In the LoessPlateau. During the 1970sand 1980s,thes meaures reduce sedimentloads by about20 percent. In the 1990sup to year2000, a furtherreducton of about 20 percentcan be envisioned.These would reduce the flusng requirementsby 25 percent. In 1990,water availablefor flushing-- as not an issue-the targetof 20-24billion =? couldbe met on averagewdiout curtailingdiversions. In 2000,this is not the case. The modelseds about20 billionm on averageto the sea (seeTable 6.4, "tosea") only becamse it is consuained to do so. This constaint,combined with the growthin M&I divetsionsand in Irrigatedarea, is behnd the shortagesevident in the 2000simulations described above. 6.18 The "cost"of the sedimentconstraint in terms of foregoneagricultural value addedmay be estimatedby varyingits valueupward and notingthe chnges. This expment, whicbis basedon a PS0 inflow,is summarizedin Table6.7. Increaingthe sedimentflushing requirementfrom 18to 20 billionmn has virtuallyno effectin thisPS0 case. Butbeyond 20, watershortage" increase at aboutthe samerate as the flushingconstraint is increased,and grin outputand valueadded from agriculture begin to drop significandy.Between 20 and 22, gri otput is by 1.5 Mt (0.75 kg/rn) and value added fails by about Y 460 milIon (22.5fenlm?-very close to the estimatesof the marginalvalue of water in Chapwr3). Going fom 22 to 24, grainoutput drops another 1.2 Mt, and the costgoes up to 37 fen/in. Energy outputIncreases ever so dsighy because,with the reduceddiversions, flows alongthe enire sem rie sligtly. Clearly,there are enormousretus to soil conservationworks which would reducesediment ente the river and thus lowerthe flushingreV1rem, Table 6.7: SEDIMNTCONSTRAN ERlIc

Sedimentconstraint (BCH) 18.00 20.00 22.00 24.00 Water shortages(BCM) 7.93 8.00 10.19 12.32 Grain output(Mt) 25.87 25.83 24.32 23.11 Agriculturalvalue added (By) 25.79 25.78 25.33 23.85 Economiccost (fen/l') 0.01 22.6 37.0

6.19 Sincethe sedimentconstraint imposes a large shadowpri6e on flushngwater req_irementof 24 billionmelyear it wouldbe worthwhileto investigateif soil consvain wouldreduce the amountof sedimentflowing in the river andthereby reduce the flushingwater needs. Table6.8 givesthe flushingwater needs for differentlevels of sedimentflow. Prese flowsof sedimentof 1.35billion tons/year require about 24 billionin' per yearof fluing water needs. Ihe cost of reducingsediment flows by 100million tons wouldrequr inve In checkdams and other soil rraining mear over45,000 to 60,000km costg about$79 millionto $90 millio per year. Thesecosts are based on the LoessPlateau Project being pred by YRCCfor possible Bank xnug. The costsof theseworks tanlat into22-24 hn per m of flushingwater. Hence are large savingsof 15 fenln' (37-22fnm) for -95 -

Table 6.8: EcoNmCS OFSoiL CONSVATON

a I lop V m

tn Sea lUltem 8 *.0 3.0 30.0 3.6 33.0 3.0 34.0 S6edl 141aeatk WU2a taljr 1,023.0 113.0 1,145.0 10 0 A, beeed ltr *1 $X*s A*stMJ * 0W91 ",,,e~ ~ llSls t.eulyv 719.9 7.5 n9.4 804 679.6 70.4 ° 50 C1r1 40.0 -0.0 40.0 0.0 40.6 .0.4 59.0 6.41O set 1. $ u0 o 80.@ 73.9 8seepete fauW 24.75 34.73 31.70

;.leeatl bu'£0.0 33.4 57.

SoletSayIngs z,1e.Sat -24.0 .3.1 15.3

DWm. betwe lee I & 2. & JM to so uahtabu. DaONI bdlmfwaat Sabmasaxi & umebd aamamlssoa *t 45,000knf in middl teachmac. 5f DedvedBern dmmd.wpde BerN DIM 00oasAtrat 0. ontil' lsto rec sedint flowsby 100million which * byrequi lessflshig waer- 24 billn elyaw reuc to 22 billionmj/yea. However,firher reduetionin sedmnt wi intprodce addiond benft fr reductionof flushingflows in Yea 2000. Hencea projdct threetimes lae as theproposed Loess Plateau ProJect will have snifint beft and sod be Implementedbefore Year 2000. Addti soil consmean projects of simr diu houldbe implemetd aftYerY 2000and these projects wi havesimilar befts bece h w baon by Year2010 wll alsobe verytight and any reduction in flushingwatr wil rea morewaW for irrigation.

Enomic optmtuu vs. MM-Come, M-Seed 6.20 There e onlylimited controls on diversions, and tos aremostly cono Wo te pumpingshme. it is tu physicallyimpossible, both now and In thefreseeable tur, to realocatewr uppliesfrom up-river to down-riverIrrigors whenwater Is sca Nor do theauthorities ncessaily havethe desire to imposesuch a reallocation.As oouldbe smee In msurm ofproductvity, firmers in themiddle reach regions are significantly worse off th lhdiromuM In the lowerreas. Giventhe govenme's conern xther poorerregon and qable Inm distribution,it is bighy unlikelytht the eom ptm solution woud be paatable. For thisreon, the 2000model follows the principleof first-come,fir- served allocatigwater.a/ AU upstram regions are allocated the wat theydie, witin rsocO limitsimposed by localrunoff, and ay excs the becomesavaiableor usweIn the lower reacd.

6.21 mheBLM is an opfimizationmodel and thferefr s thdocapbility of _v4gpdngthe effec of movingtoward a basin-wideeconomic optimm, althoghits main uses ufar hav beenas a simubtiontool. Table6.10 repors an experimentin whichwater is alot solelyaccri to economiccriteia subjectto the usu r csoonsin and y Mme*fluucon^s fim-ovodO ystem esmtaily sbpmi andnmomt all WatWneeds frm Region1 to 5 fi Itthenoptmim, wholsubaptimmthe g so divam lvebl forResi4n 1-5. -96 -

Table 6.9: MACtS oF MOviNGTowARD AN ECONoac OrIMum

_IrrAgated area Raifd grai D±versione Valu2 added Region iCES.a ECONLa lCFS ECON FCES ECON ICES ICON

…______p50------e------

1 1.04 1.04 - 0.53 0.53 0.15 0.15 4.90 4.90 - 2.31 2.32 1.13 1.13 1.06 1.02 3A 7.42 4.79 - 2.63 4.45 3.17 3B 12.11 8.63 0.01 3.49 6.97 5.24 1.08 0.97 4 4.14 1.13 - 3.01 1.55 0.53 0.24 0.17 SA 6.19 6.19 1.74 1.74 1.76 1.76 0*83 0.83 5B 22.53 22.54 0.01 - 6.70 6.04 4.01 3.90 6 3.87 3.87 - - 1.S3 1.33 0.74 0.74 5.20 5.39 7A 18.17 18.17 - - 3.94 4.93 11.51 12.81 75 39.81 39.81 - - 6.75 10.07 Total 120.17 111j09 1_tI 10.87 36.31 32592 21.95227.12 e______P75e______------0.15 1 1.04 1.04 - - 0.53 0.53 0.15 1.13 1.10 2 4.90 4.90 - - 2.31 2.09 1.06 1.02 3A 7.42 4.79 - 2.63 4.45 3.17 3B 12.11 6.76 0.01 5.36 6.97 4.31 1.08 0.91 4 4.14 1.13 - 3.01 1.55 0.53 0.24 0.17 SA 5.60 5.60 2.33 2.33 1.61 1.61 0.78 0.78 5B 21.58 21.59 0.97 0.96 6.17 5.61 3.91 3.82 6 3.87 3.87 - - 1.33 1.33 0.74 0.74 5.28 7A 18.17 18.17 -- 3.94 4.36 5.20 75 38.94 39.81 0.87 - 5.18 10.07 10.42 12.81

Total 117.76 107.67 Lj,1 14.2F 34.04,3361 24.7026.79

La FCFS: fitst-come, first-svedrule (base case). Lb ECON: economicoptmum. the base-casesediment flushing constaint 'he table comparesselected variables from the FCFS (fist-come, first-served)rule used fbr the base case, and the economicopmunm.

6.22 Considerthe P50 inflowcase first.Value added under the economicoptimum is Y 1.17 billion higr, or 4.5percet lTe main change in diversions is a reductionin Regions 1 to S andan increaseIn Region 7B. Whfle tisis notlarge in absoluteterms, this gain is equIentto two-plus years of productvityincreases wA bave assumedwill occr.However, tis neaseis obtainedwith about 400 mIllion en less diversions. Per cubic meter diverted, valueadded inas from 71.5 fento 75.5. In the P75 case, when watr is In shorter supply, the diffces are larger. The economicoptimum produces over Y 2 billionof addiiona value -97 - added,with about the samedecrease in diversions.Clearly, the economicoptmum is a more efficientway of maximzingthe benefitsfrom Yelow River water, but It wouldentail significant soci cost.

6.23 bhe ecomomicoptimm (PSO)requis a redlocaton away from the lower yieldingupper and middlereach regionsto the higheryielding lower reach. In particular, Region3A (Ningia) wouldlose 1.3 billionm3, 3B (InnerMongolia), 1.7 billIionm, 4 (ess Plateau), 1.0 billion en, and 5B (Wel Valley),0.6 billion m3. All of this water wouldbe "sav4" for additionaldiversion to 7B, Henan(1 billionin' and 7B Shandong(3.3 billion ml), givinga tot of 4.3 billionmn. Theseresults are not dependenton the laer regions ambitious expansionplans, but insteadare drivenby the vasdydifferent returns to water in the regions mentioned.In the P75 case, 3B wouldsuffer even more as the economiccriterion strives to minimizethe lossesIn Regions7A and 7B. 6.24 Suchan allocationmay be unaccptableon equitygrounds, and is not necessarily recommended.However, these results are of inerestbecause they confirmta the lowerreach regionsshould be the areas targetedfor Investmenton efficiencygrounds. Viewedfrom a differentperspecive, the economicoptimum could be obtained,and incomelevels in the other affected regiowsretained, if about 4.3 billion mn of water could be found or saved. Unfortmately,the sourcesfor suchsavings are liited and costly-either reductionsin planned diversionsto MA, or reductionsof sedimentflushing water. Inportance of Improvem in Delvery Emciq 6.25 Ihe earlierdiscussion of canaland field efficienciesassumed for the year2000 speculated at nonachievementof the targetedimprovenients would have a higblydetrimental effecton the basins water shortage.This suppositionwas tested under the somewhatextreme ithatthere wouldbe no fiurherimprovemts beyondthose projected to havebeen hievedby 1990(recall that the current efficienciesused for the 1990 modelwere in fact projectionsmade from a much earlierbase). Table6.11 report these results. Column(A) is the 2000base soludon, column(B) is the samemodel but with 1990canal and fieldefficiencies and returnflow factors rened, column(C) is the change,and (D), the percentagechange.

6.26 Diversionsto agricultureare slightlyhigher under the simulatedreduction in efficiencies,because lower efficienciesImply higher return flows. Energyoutput is virtualy unaffected,and is not reported.The majorchanges are broughtabout in the areas irrigated(or reducedto rainfedstats), and the In the increasesIn cropstress. 6.27 About3.4 millionmu less,onaverage, can be Irrigatedin the lower efficiency casebecause water shortge increaseby between2.3 billione and 3.1 billionme-the watr savedas a resultof the efficiency-improvingefforts. Cropstress becomes more intnse,leading to an overallreduction in value addedof over Y 1 billion in the PSOand P75 cases. On average,the BLMestinates that the efficieny improvementefforts wfll have, by 2000,gross - 98-

Table6.10: TST OFIMPORTANCE OF MROVEMENITS IN DISTIWFUONEMlaCINCY

_Efficiencies 2000 190 hane A- (A) (B) (C) CD)

AmrolulturalDiversions (billion mn)

P90 30.50 31.60 1.10 3.62 P75 34.04 35.55 1.51 4.42 P50 36.31 37.84 1.53 4.22 P25 38.63 40.51 1.88 4.92

WaterShortaeo (billion m3) P90 11.53 14.67 3.14 27.22 P75 7.99 10.71 2.72 34.01 PS0 5.73 8.42 2.69 46.91 P25 3.40 5.74 2.34 68.82 IrrigatedArea (Cropped)(million mu)

P90 103.14 99.16 -3.98 -3.9Z P75 117.76 110.20 -7.56 -6.41 P50 120.17 118.65 -1.52 -1.31 P25 120.46 119.94 -0.52 -0.42 InducedRainied Area (millionmu)

P90 18.80 22.78 3.98 21.21 75 4.18 11.74 7.56 180.91 PS0 1.76 3.28 1.52 86.41 P25 1.49 2.01 0.52 34.91 AnriculturalValue Added (billionY)

P90 22.S9 22.39 -0.20 -0.91 P75 24.70 23.58 -1.12 -4.51 ?S0 25.95 24.77 -1.18 -4.51 P25 2705 26.69 -0.36 -1.31

Note: (A) 2000base solution wih naased efficiency. (B) 2000 solution with current (1990) efficiencies. -99v beneft of aboutY 830 millionper year.4/ The total investmentfor efficiencyimpove is aboutY 702mllion a year. Hence,net benefitsto agriculturealone are aboutY 130million a year. In the P5Ocue, h nslatesto 5.6 fenm3 saved, and in the P75 case, 4.13fen/n saved. D. CONCLUSIONSFROM BLM 2000

6.28 The 2000 simnlationsleads to the followingconclusions: (a) Wate wil become eingly short by 2000 even if the projected efficiency mpovemn are attained. Thereasons for this shortageare a markedincrease in the areas to be irdgated with YellowRiver wat, and a rapid projectedincrease in diversionsto M&M. (b) he mostcritcal issue snouding the extentof fiue shortagesis how muchwaer willbe neededto fRushsediment from the lowerreaches to minimizethe needfor dike- raisg and to keepthe probabilityof floodingfrom increasing. If no changeIn the flushingflows Is permitted,then the water shortagesituation will be economically daous: onlya frction of the investmentsin new irrigationworks can be used and cop waterstress will be widespread.Assuming that contmuingsoil conservationand sediment-trappingefforts can reduce flushing flows to 75 percentof their 1990levels, a growthin outputof about6 percentper year canbe achieved,but shortageswill still be severe.Since reductionof sedimentflows is extremelyimportamt a projectthree t as large as the proposedLoess Plateau Project should be iploementedbefore Ywe 2000.

(c) Thedoubling of M&Idiversions will come at a highcost to agriculture.At the magin, addional diversionsin 2000 willhave an opportunitycost of morethan 70 fen/m&. (d) Ihe Ilnvesme in efficiencyiprovements shouldhave reasonablereurns in the watwerhortffe. On average,each cubicmeter saved Is worthup to 44 fen in terms of agdcuturl valueadded.

Alt_oughtd figureis based aon w diversions(net of rotumflows to theriver), the befts ar overtatedto extenttdat lower as lossoslead to lower gSoundw recargerates and liately, ls groudwalt to be exploited. -1o-

7 WATERBALANCE IN THE YEAR 2010

A. bWROnvCrION

7.1 Chapter6 concludedthat rapidly growing demands for YellowRiver wate would resultIn sigpifca wat shortagesby the year 2000. TIs chapterlooks forward even furter, to the year 2010,because invstments In soil and wor conseva, Irrigation,water supply, floodcontrol, sedimet controland multipurpose fclies willhave major impacts beyond 2000. ally, a much longer plannit horzon shouldbe used. However,problems with data avabt, nisnies in baselineindicators and projections, unceraintes regding dcange In basin wae supply i.e., the south-r-rt wter nsfes ), and structu refrm in Chin's enomy (for example,restrucl ood seurity and sectoralpolicies) argue against the utility of anadyzingcondiions in 2020or 2050,the longerterm view essental to properbasin planning. Watersortages ar areEdyapparent ad the Impactof mostof the plannedmedium- and longerterm investews In water consermtion,Irrigation expansion, power generationand sedimet controlwi be seenbefore 2010. Therebfore,a mediumterm analysis would consider all of the basins mostpressing problems wel as the variousoptions for amelioraftingthese concerns. Accordiny, th analysishas beenlimited to theyear 2010. 7.2 the analysesfocus on the efficacyof variousmedinm-term investment options, in particular,Improvemetin waterours dery efficlecies,ep-ions in efive irrigated a and the Xlaolangdimultpurpose resevoir. In additon to regulang and generating acies scheduledto be in operationby 2000 (three multipurposeworks-LoWnania, Liujiaxia and Sanmexda-and six large run-of-river(tOR) plants-LiJiaxa, Yansuoxia, Bapanxia,Daxia, Qingtna, and lanqiao), the analysesconsider four new multipupose faciltides(Dallushu, Wanjlarhai, Qilkou, and Xiaolangdi)and two major run-of-riverplants (Ladwa and longboxla).Since in mostcases very little If any designwork bas beendone on gostof these 3failities,the experimentsdescribed below concentatedon the best-studiedof them, Uaolnl. 7.3 Tis chapterbegins with a bri descripon of changesin the modelrequired to poxImate 2010 conditionsand a concisedescription of the model eperments. Ibis Is foLowedbya dsuoonofthe centresults fromthe a .piment,and finallyby a diScussion of sv key smn ponImprov Inwatercourse delivery efficiencies, expansions in Irrigation,and te Xlaolangdlrervoir. B. DSCurON OFMOaE FOR2010

7.4 The Inflowscenaios for the 2010simulations a Identicalto thosespecified in the 1990and 2000 runsbut modelpameters andmodel stru e werealtered to approxime 2010 condItions. The specfic pauam changea as follows: - 101

7.5 Popublton and Labor Force. As a result of seuar growthin population, industrWdevelopment and planned extrbasin water transfes, M&W and rua houseboldwater consumptionis projected to Increase1 percentannually from base case 2000 leves. It Isfly developmentand MM needswil be growingat a muchfister rate. obviousthat industrW at However,the part of the secor dependeaton YellowRiver surfae wate willbe growing I percentper anum Themajor portion of the increaseddemand will have to be suppliedby south-northwater trfers and a smallamount by untappedgroundwor supplies. 7.6 M&I DistributonEffidences. Altioughconsable lnvestmetsIn M waterconservation progrms are anticipated between 1990 and 2010-veal te of biions of yuanare provisionallydocketed by MURCand EPA provi and municipalagcies for ImprovementsIn M&I water delivery, teatment, sewage and ffluentsystems-no proJections areavaiable on regionalwater delivery efficiency targets for 2010. AccordWy,for the2010 simulations,it was conservativelyassumed that MM deliveryefficiencies and return ftctors wouldremain at levelsfor 2000. Table7.1 givesthese efficiencies. Tabbe7.1: M&I DwmurmN EFCENClsS 2000

1t M&I U M&I Diversif. Region Ef fi- return demand ieney factor (billion I) (billion m!)

0.467 0.500 0.020 0.085 1 0.993 2 0.467 0.500 0.230 0.609 0.600 0.080 0.326 3A 0.411 3B 0.613 0.700 0.080 0.890 0.500 0.S18 1.161 4 2.033 3A 0.449 0.500 0.455 0.569 0.600 0.968 1.235 51 1.378 6 0.327 0.700 0.140 0.916 0.100 0.190 0.232 7A 2.252 7B 0.923 0.100 1.821 Tot8a10.106 4.502

Note: Ihese diversionsinclude the following extrabasin transfers: 2 billionm to Hibel and Tianjinduring winter, and 1.58 billionmn to theSanxi energybase Shai) annually.M&I (0.58billion mn in InnerMongolia and I billionmn in demnd is netdemand and Includes etabasin deliveriesassigped on a regional basis net of eturenand losses. -102-

7.7 Eztraban Tranfers. Etrabasin trsfers for M&i consumptionin Qlngdao (andagricultual e enroute)have been opaional since 1989and are includedIn all 1990, 2000and 2010simulations. Three other extrabasintransfers are contemplatedfor the 1990-2010 pekiod. Theyinclude: 2 billionvn for Hebeland Tianjin;0.5 bilion m'for Taiyuanand Datong,Shan i, respectively;and 0.58 billionmn forthe Zhungeercoalfield In InnerMongolia. The Hebei and Tlan3indiversions will use existing diversionstructus downstreamof Huayuanwu, but the Shanxi and Inner Mongoliadiversions will require storage (and conveyance)fcilities to be constructedat Wanjiazbal.Tn all the post-1990simulations, it has bee assured that the Hebl-Tianjindiversions are actve. The Shanxland Inner Mongolia divsions are umedto be operationalonly if Wanjiazhalis onsm.

7.8 OutputPriem, Costsand Yildds. Theoutput prices and costs employed in the basecase 2000 solutions were retained fbr the 2010simulations. These prices are derivedfrom borderprice calculations performed for eachof the regions. Althoughlittle is knownabout post- 20C0planned agriculur invess in ferilizers, aeiicals, and new varietiesand techniques,and iesive resourceuse be - -n 2000and 2010, the modelprojects yields to grow 1 percentannually between 2000 and 201u. Table7.2 pres the irrigatedyield projections used in the 2010simuions.

Table 7.2: YIED PROtCrIoNs: 2010 SIMULATIONS(kg/mu)

Regica Wheat Corn Cotton Paddy

1 222 310 2 313 438 SA 228 320 812 35 206 287 4 184 310 SA 244 549 74 SB 242 405 71 6 295 494. 58 358 7A 341 424 102 444 7B 341 424 120

7.9 A mnmberof stuctr changeswere also madeto the model. Specifically:

(a) Sediment }1ushingConstnts. Likethe basecase 2000 optmization runs, the 2010experiments require that 75 percentof 1990flows to the sea be imposed as minimumsediment flushing require.aents. However,7.5 biSion in of Xlaolangdidead storage wil be used to trap coase sedimens that would otherwiseneed to be flushedout to sea. In addition,Xiaolangdi's summerdme opat policiesforce reservoirlevels to be kept low for flood control purposes,immediatel, flushing the heavysediment-laden flood season flows. Sinceforcing 75 percentof 1990flows to be flushedto the sea withXialaongd in operadondoes not take adequate recognition of Xaaolangdi'ssediment control funtions, sedimentflushing constns were reducedto 50 percentof 1990 flowsto the sea withXiaolangdi in operation. Sinilarly,the Qilou rservoir . 103 -

will alsotrap and regulatecoam sediments.However, due to its uppermiddle reachsiting, thi reservoiralone cannot control downsteam sedint delivery intothe main stew and fallsto adequatelyminim depositionalong tihe lower reach. To recognizoQikou's lesser utility In controUing sediment, the sediment constraintwas relaxedto 65 percen.of 1990flows to the sea with Qilkouin operation. Table7.3 givesthe varioussedimen flu"hing consrin levels. Table 7.3: SEDMETFLUSNCi CONSrRNr (billionm/year flowto the BohaiSea)

2010 2010 2010 WIoXLD w/o XLD v/ XD vio QK V/ QK vio QR 1990 75s of 652 of 50% of Probbility Plows 1990 Flows 1990 Plows 1990 Flows

P25 37.67 28.25 24.49 18.84 PS0 24.20 18.15 15.73 12.10 P75 17.47 13.10 11.36 8.74 P90 9.88 v.41 6.12 4.94

Avg. P25-P75 26.45 19.83 17.19 13.23

(b) Regional YellowRiver Alocations. The 1987 Stae Councildecision on provincialallocations of YellowRiver surfacewate havebeen prorated to the regionson an effectiveIrrigated area basis and these regonal allocadonsappli3 as an upperbound on net diversions(agricululral diversions for bothconjunctive and surfacewaer use only,plus municipaland rural householddiversions less rens) from the YellowRiver. The extrabasindiversion to QlngdaoIs Includedin the Shandongprovicial allocadon,the Shand diversionsare includedin SaniWs allocation,and the Inner Mongoliadiveion ae counted againsttheLoess Plateau allocation. Th Hebel-MTiajindivetsions have their own separe allocation,which for modelingconvenience is aggregaed to the offtakeregion, Shandong.

7.10 The nature of the fist-come, first-servedallocadon rule ensures ta net diversionsfrom the lowestreach regionsare consided in the modelexpem only as residual. Should^surplus waterremain after upstrem reacheshave taken their fal allocatio, subjectto the effecdveirrigated area, M&I andewtrabasin tsfer, flushingand flow cosainsb, thiswater can be used by the lower reach evenif its use exceedsregional allocations, agan subjectto theusual constraints. Iherefore, ShandongM&1 and rur householddiversions (includingerabasin diversions)are fixedas minimumbounds, butno upperbound on Sandong net diversion Is detmined.

7.11 PolicyExperiment DesaIption. A seriesof policyexperiments were design with a view to evaluatingtheir relaive effectivenessIn mprovingnet ouput and economic -104-

efficiey. Theeprimet preseed blow represenoptions open to policymake dia av no bsenadopted; that Ii, theyareoun simulations.The simulationsar rn In a single.step,sequei fshion aint a commoncriterion for easeof comparion As withthe basecase 1990 and 2000 smulations, the citerion is maxmzationof valueadded from Yellow liver wate, subjectto the constraintsdecibed abov and In previouschapts. Each experimenthtaes a simi elementof the modelstut tot parameter)from som prvous refrence ca. T*s bhighis the policyissue under analysis. The first policyexperimen is the bas c ais whichall otherregional simulations can then be compared.Table 7.4 lIst the sequenceof policyeperets. Table 7.4: DEsQrWnONOF 2010 Poucv ExPDmsRrs

Base chae n lift Case In WC lIr. area 2010 effic. SA & Sl Comsts

ise cae 2010 A C -752 of 1990 flos to the ea as lover bound - Qlqgdao & Nebel/TisaJin transfers

Bae case 2010 D 8 I - 502 of 1990 flows to with 8LD the sea as lover bound - Qlngdao & hobeljTiajn transfer. iEee case 2010 with a a - 652 of 1990 flows to DLS,wU, QI & i0n LA the *ea as lover bound - Qlngdao$ Shauzi, Inner Nongolia & Rebel/TlanJin tsaJfers Heee case 2010 vith J I - 50S of 1990 flows to DIS, WI. Qh XLD the sea as loner bound &U JAXj- Qlugdaos Shan:t, Inner HMogolia & Nebel/Tianjin transfer.

DLSis Dalluhu,WU is Wa4hl, QKis Qikou,XD Xis aolangdiand ROR refers to run-of-riverplants.

7.12 The experimes dinguied betwoe two differet Irrigadonditbution effiecy esates to iustrte thesensitivity of themodel to investmnsin relathly cheap, and In captal-envo waer-m nt projects. Thetwo differentvectors refle: (a)base cas 2000 dIstrnti efficienciesand (b) majorsystem conveyance efficiencies projected to grow4 percn, andsublateal dibutionefciencies expectedto grow2 perce between2000 and2010. Thee Iroved efficiencies,presented In Table7.5, are a substantiaimprovement overprese (1990)conditions and probably represent the mostthat i possbleIn termsof nservingIrrigation wOr. 7.13 Twodif regionalvectors for effective area irrigatedby surf waterwere o examined.They relect: (a)ba cas 2000effective area and (b) base case 200) effctve ar aumeted by Icraes In idgatedara in regionsSA andSB as a resultof inesmen In eoxadd YdlowRiver mai stempump capacity. The YRCCwater balance studies and - 105 -

Table 7.5: IuRovsn DmwrInolN EvuCINS 2010

Retura Total Caal efflcincies Field efficiengAie factor offic. Region 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

1 0.550 0.500 0.630 0.850 0.850 0.870 0.050 0.548 0.550 0.590 0.630 0.850 0.850 0.870 0.050 0.548 2 0.378 SA 0.510 0.570 0.610 0.500 0.600 0.620 0.250 0.530 0.580 0.620 0.500 0.600 0.620 0.070 0.384 3B 0.544 4 0.560 0.600 0.640 0.810 0.830 0.850 0.090 0.540 0.600 0.640 0.880 0.900 0.920 0.100 0.589 SA 0.573 SB 0.550 0.600 0.640 0.850 0.875 0.895 0.090 6 0.550 0.600 0.640 0.850 0.875 0.895 0.100 0.573 0.540 0.600 0.640 0.700 0.750 0.770 0.080 0.493 7A 0.589 7B 0.540 0.600 0.640 0.880 0.900 0.920 0.080

iiurewater model solutionsfor 1990 and 2000 have demonstratedthe severi of present and shortagesin thee subbasins. Theseregions have very limitd trbutary runoffpotena but underisedmain stemallocations. Both Shanxi and Shaanxiare concentainj their Irrigation investments on expansions of main stem pumping schemes and it is reasonable to expect riai expansionsIn thesecritically water-short regions. Table 7.6 ows the totalsfor these ffectve Irigad ars. Table 7.6: IRRIGATEDAREA iN 2010 (million mu)

With expanded Base case lift irrigation Regions 2010 in Regions SA & 5B

1 1.042 1.042 2 4.898 4.898 4 3.765 3.765 3 6.567 6.567 3B 11.019 11.019 SA 6.345 7.518 5B 14.545 14.720 6 2.515 2.515 7A 10.686 10.686 73 24.425 24.425

Total 85.807 87.155 -106-

7.14 Four differentstages of basin developmentwere distinguished:

(a) no nw multipurpose(MP) or run-of-river(ROR) developmens after 2000;

(b) a flly operationalXlaolangdl (XLD) reservoir is added to the base case 2000 set of plants;

(c) Daliushu(DLS), Wanjiazhai(WJZ) and Qlkou (QK) MP facilitiesand Laxiwa and GongboxiaROR plan are onsrem but Xiaolangdiand LongmenMPs are not In operation; and

(d) all MP and ROR facilitiesare fully operationalexcept for Longmel.

The mix of these diffirent facilitiespermits a full picture of the relative importanceof the fis major MP likely to come onstream, Xiaolangdi,in the future basin investmentprogram.

C. RzsLTS or THE2010 SIMULATIONS

7.15 Solutlon Feasbity. All of these experimentsare feasible In the sense that the model can meet all constraints and bounds, Including minimum flow and sediment flushing Constrints, for M&I and mral household water demands in 2010 and minimum agricultural releases to regions upstream of Xiaolangdi. This last is an outcomeof the first stage of the twostage opimization procedureoutlined in Chapter 6. Ibis procedureensures that no reallocation from upstream to downsteam can occur (the first-come, first-servedrule), implicitly including equity onsiderationsin the model.

7.16 The Reauts. A number of general results can be reported:

(a) Most of the diffenc among simulationsconcern the lower reach (see Table 7.7).

() The projected increases in M&I and rural household demand on top of the already water-constrainedscenarios for 2000, and the first-come first-srved allocations,considerably reduce developmentoptions. As a consequence,there are only minor changes in aggregate diversions across experiments. Net Aversionsrange between 30 and 36 billion nin annually, depending on the experimentand flow year; this Is somewhatless than the averagebasin allocation of 37 biltion mWdetermined by the State Council (see Table 7.8). Ihe State Councl fige was derived assuming that 22 billion mi anmuallywould be available for sediment flushing. The experiments consider somewhat less flushing-between 13 and 20 billion mi to the sea annually-yet net diversions were In all cases less than 37 billion mi.

(c) Net regional diversionsare effectivelyconstrained by regional allocationlimits (Regions4, SA, and 6) or physical limits on effective irrigation in every upper and middle-reachregion (Regions 1, 2, and 3A) in all experimentsin all flow regimes (seo Table 7.8). With the projected demands in 2010, it will not be possibleto maintainwater diversions In middleand downstreamreaches at levels even approig regionalallocaions withoutsignificant cuts in Irrigationunless - 107 -

Table 7.7: 2010MODEL RULTS: BASINWATER BALANC (billionml) Moo~~~~~~~~~ Base Case A A A B aA 2010 VI VI WI WI VI VI VI uP HP IMP MP Hp WM ooo la & & we & & lift sr. A ROR OR off a RO1 ROR irr C vio VI vio VI Wlo VI VIw VI Wvo VI XLD XLD LlD XLD XLD XLD XLD XLD X1D YD A D a J t I a K C P

Inlaloos P25 69.6... 69.6 69.6.. ... 69.6 P50 56.4... 56.4 56.4.. ... 56.4 P75 48.9... 48.9 48.9... ..48.9 R90 39.7*.. 39.7 39.7... . *..39.7 Returns: P25 7.0 7.1 7.5 7.5 6.9 7.0 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.1 P50 6.8 6.8 7.4 7.4 6.7 6.7 7.3 7.3 6.8 6.8 P75 6.6 6.7 7.4 7.4 6.6 6.6 7.3 7.3 6.6 6.8 190 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.1 6.3 6.5 7.0 7.1 6.3 6.5 Loesses P2S 3.5 3.9 4.6 S.0 3.6 4.0 4.6 5.0 3.6 3.9 P50 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.5 3.1 3.5 4.2 4.6 3.1 3.5 P75 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.1 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.1 2.7 3.1 P90 2.5 2.9 3.5 3.9 2.5 2.9 3.5 3.9 2.4 2.8 FovW to the Seat P25 30.8 29.9 30.2 29.8 31.8 30.8 31.1 30.7 30.3 29.4 P50 18.4 18.0 17.9 17.6 19.3 18.9 18.8 18.4 18.2 17.5 P75 13.1 11.0 11.4 10.6 13.1 11.9 11.8 11.5 13.1 10.6 P90 7.4 4.9 6.4 4.9 7.4 4.9 6.4 4.9 7.4 4.9 Diversions to Agiculturot P25 33.8 34.3 32.2 32.2 32.5 33.2 31.2 31.2 34.3 34.9 PS0 33.1 33.1 31.6 31.6 32.1 32.1 30.7 30.7 33.4 33.7 P75 31.1 32.9 31.0 31.5 131.1 31.9 30.5 30.5 31.1 33.5 P90 27.6 29.9 26.7 27.9 127.6 29.9 26.7 27.9 27.7 29.9 Diversionsto M&1t P25 8.5 8.5 10.1 10.1 8.5 8.5 10.1 10.1 8.5 8.5 PSO 8.S 8.5 10.1 10.1 8.5 8.5 10.1 10.1 8.5 8.5 P75 8.5 8.5 10.1 10.1 8.5 8.5 10.1 10.1 8.5 8.5 190 8.5 8.5 10.1 10.1 8.5 8.5 10.1 10.1 8.5 8.5 Not Diversions$ P25 35.3 35.8 34.8 34.8 34.2 34.8 33.9 33.9 35.7 36.3 P50 34.9 34.9 34.3 34.3 34.0 34.0 33.4 33.4 35.1 35.4 P75 33.0 34.7 33.8 34.2 33.0 33.8 33.3 33.3 33.1 35.2. P90 29.8 31.9 29.8 30.9 29.8 31.9 29.8 30.9 29.9 32.0

&I Socuar growth rato of 1 permt fbr MM and agiutr waw demand underexploitedupsream allocations, i.e., diversionsupstream of Sanshengong, remainunderexploited. nho additionof extrabasindiversions in Shai and Inner Mongolia,in simulationsG-K, onlyexacrbates middleand lowerreach difficulties. The water-shortmiddle and lower reaches stay within their allocationsonly by movingeffective rrigatedarea into raindfearea his is ure to havesignificant consequences for basinequity; irrigation expansions in poorer upper-reachareas will contributeto aiing per capita incomesand - 108-

Table 7: STATECOuNCIL ALOC&Tom AND Nrr DISoNs By RzGioN (billionm)

A Al A ftat* ST. I I~~~~~~~~~W Rag91~~~~~~~~ at 11 1a p

a.. D 0 Je 1 4 &

Po 12"""W1.3 C.." 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.55 0.55 {S1 0r O4$ ° '3 2°t0 '1'4° .°'1' 2°s6 2.36 2.03$ 2.03 2.70 2.70 41-33 1.33 1-sS 21:sh ^-sS 1.sS 1.sS \. 1.55 1.33 1.55 4 *4.00 2.32 2.53 2.33 8.5* 2.36 2.36 3.36 2.36 2.32 3.52 33 5.84 5.86." .6 5.86 5."6. .84 S."6 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 54 $:n 2.t:nt3.61 . 3.06 26 .06 .06 2.06n.55 2.06 2.55 SD 2.3 .7 3.75 2.7is 2.73 S 2.733.5 .7 2.75 J.75 2.75 47 1.a .06 1.06 1.06 ."06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 74 4.49 3.07 3.87 3.87 3.87 3.66 3.44 3.66 3.66 3.87 3.87 7 9.00 6.98 0.03 7.47 8.27 I.46 .SS 7.96 9.6 6.47 8.56 101 37.00 30.8 1.93 39.81 30.91 20.82 31.91 39.7 30.89 39.8 31.05

Z.LUiniux 1.45 0.55 0.5 0.55 0.SS 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 O.55 0.SS 2 3.04 2.70 3.70 2.14 3.14 2.54 2.54 2.01 2.03 3.70 3.70 4 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 218 4.00 . 2.52 2.53 3.52 2.36 3.36 3.34 2.34 2.5 2.5 SD 5.0 5.3 5.86 5.86 s."6 5.86 5-.6 5.66 S.04 5."6 S."6 38 3.01 1.95 1.05 1.92 1.93 1.95 1.05 1.4 1.94 I.44 2.44 Ss 3.75 3.75 3753 3.75 LTS3 2.75 2.75 1.7 I.75 W.S 3.75 6B 1.06 1 06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1 0 I6104 1.06 1046 1.06 1 06 74 4.49 5.87 4.49 4.10 4.49 3.47 4.49 4.49 4.49 3.87 4.49 73 0.0 10.24 11.34 11.34 11.54 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75 9.77 11.34 UT 37.00 33.03 34.74 33.77 34.1S 33.01 33.81 33.30 33.30 33.05 35.2)

- 1.45 0.55 O5$ 0.55 0.55 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.S1 0.55 O.55 7 S.0 2.70 3.70 2.14 2.14 2.56 3.5S 2.03 3.03 2.70 2.70 4 1.S 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.5 1.55 1.35 1.55 1.55 38 4.00 W.S .52 2.S2 2.53 2.56 2.36 2.36 2.56 2.52 2.52 F3 5.84 5.84 5.36 5.36 5.84 5.86 5.84 5.66 5.84 5.86 5.84 54 SON 2.00 3.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 32.0 2.09 2.09 2.58 2.30 SD 3.75 3.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.7 3.75 2.75 3.75 6 1."6 1.04 1."4 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1."4 74 4.40 4.49 4.49 4.49 4.40 4.49 4.49 4.49 4.49 4.24 4.49 73 0.-00 11.34 11.34 11.34 11.34 10.75 10.7 10.75 10.75 11.34 11.34 801 37.00 34.8 34.88 34.32 34.3) 33.97 33.07 33.44 33.4 35.12 35.37 a 1.45 O0.5 0.55 0.55 0.55 0M51 0.51 O.S1 0.51 0.55 0.55 3 3.04 2.70 2.70 3.70 2.70 2.46 2.546 3.5 2.36 2.70 2.70 4 1.5 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 15.3 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 38 4.00 S." 3.48 2.32 3.52 3.46 3.26 2.34 2.36 3.48 3.48 3 5.36 S.8 S." S.6 6 5.3 S.8 S.6 S.4 S.6 S." S.6 S $.81 2.04 3.04 3.04 3.04 3.04 3.04 2.04 3.04 2.3.3 WS Ss 3.75 2.75 2.75 27 3.75 23.75 .75 2.75 3.75 .7 2.75 4 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.04 1.06 7A 4.49 4.13 4.49 4.49 4.40 3.88 4.409 4.40 4.49 4.13 4.49 73 9.00 11.20 11.34 11.S4 1.34 10.71 10.75 10.75 10.75 11.14 11.S4 la8 37.00 35.30 3S.79 34.83 34.83 34.17 34.82 SS.92 33.92 35.73 36.28

incrasing e reliabilityof watersupplies for rur households;however, these epsions wil comeat thecost of denyingwate to established,more densely populatedand moreproductive irrigated areas downstream.(Me fact t 'surplus wateris avalablofor Shandongallocations in the wete yearsin excessof its provial allocationlimit reflects the first-comefirst-served rle, i.e., Shadongis theresidual end-user, witout affetng theseconclusions.) (d) Ihe sedimentflun oonstrainsrequire that considerableeffective area be deniedIrigatio. The implicationsfor the proposedexpansions in surface rigate reaof 25mlion mubetween 1990 and 2005 are stling. Evenwith significantIncreass In wawcourse delivery efficiencies, in the wettest years and withoutthe Shanxi and Inner Mongolia 1.58 billion rmJ extrabasin diversions, the modelneeds to movemore than 14 millionmu of Irrigatedarea into rainfed famig (seeTable 7.9). Onaverage, the model retires about 20 millionmu. Withthe Shui-Inner Mongoliaextrabasin diversions onstream, even with the extraregulating capacity of sevenmain stem multipurpose reservoirs, more than - 109-

25 millionmu of effcte igited area are reired into raind fa . Bxpansin main stempumping capacty to extend iati tD Shanxiand Sha_ i simplyrearrang the pautterof irrigaion in the basin, expan it In themiddle reach at theexpeos of thelower rech. Table 7.9: 2010 Mom RtIWSU AGIUCUTUR

Base Case A A A a B A 2010 wI VI WI wI VI VI VI up up UV uP p emp eec. & & ve & & lift gr. A 1OR ROR eff B ROR ROR Ir C :1w VI VI. VI VI* V/ V/* VI vi. VI 8ID 91D XID XlD XLD XLD alD XlD X1D xlD A D a J B B 1 1 C N

IrrgateOd Area (tillion me) P25 105 105 99 99 107 107 101 101 106 106 PSO 102 102 96 98 1104 104 100 100 103 103 P75 102 102 97 97 1104 104 100 100 103 103 190 79 102 97 97 !104 104 99 84 100 104 lAned Are (million me)'la P25 17.0 17.0 22.7 22.7 114.6 14.6 20.6 20.6 17.6 17.6 P50 19.8 19.8 24.1 24.1 17.5 17.5 22.0 22.0 20.5 20.5 P75 20.4 20.4 24.7 24.7 18.1 18.1 22.3 22.3 21.1 21.1 190 42.5 19.5 24.5 24.5 17.6 17.6 22.8 38.2 23.3 19.8 crafn output (million tons)$ P25 28.4 28.8 26.6 26.6 129.2 29.7 27.4 27.4 29.0 29.5 150 28.0 28.0 26.0 26.0 28.9 28.9 26.8 26.8 28.4 28.6 P75 26.2 27.6 25.5 25.7 27.9 28.6 26.7 26.7 26.4 28.3 P90 17.1 25.6 22.2 23.2 25.5 27.1 23.6 19.5 24.2 26.0 Groes Output (billionyuan) 125 37.8 38.0 37.4 37.4 38.2 38.4 37.8 37.8 38.2 38.3 150 37.8 37.8 37.3 37.3 38.2 38.2 37.7 37.7 38.1 38.1 175 37.3 37.7 37.1 37.2 37.9 38.1 37.6 37.6 37.5 38.0 P90 32.8 36.8 34.9 35.8 36.1 37.6 35.9 35.4 34.5 36.7

Vain. Added (billionyuWan) 125 29.2 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 P50 29.4 29.4 29.0 29.0 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.6 175 28.9 29.3 28.8 28.9 29.4 29.6 29.2 29.2 129.0 29.6 190 26.0 28.3 26.7 27.6 27.5 29.1 27.6 28.3 26.4 28.2

jaEffectivIrrgatd are which cannot beswedi due to wate shortas&

(e) As e cted,the improvemen waterco ationappear quite bneficial. mhe improvementin watercour efficencie pert the mod todW y rdc nt dheiveions.This, In turn, esures thatflusig needsare lss constng, pemiing more water to be usd f hat and coton in e criticalsping growin seasonIn the lower reach. In all experiments(B, E, H, and K), irrigatedares, grin ouput, value of grO outputand val added exced tose of simar resut witou suchimovemen (epim A, D, G,1, C andF). Howevar,sice costcalation not avaab on thes improvements,no defini st t canbe madeabou the fficacyof such ivesmns. -110-

MO)Thnew storag feile gNerat consideablevalue adde in bothIrriation andpw (seeTable 7.12). vnaluadded In hIrran is pricay du to th Iproved handlingof sedn Xlaola both in tes of te relxationIn fusig ned a wellasnea d seasonalflxit n meoetg ho need. Than storagef8 Ctes also pmi coniderble resduling of flows,eseay in Xiaoland witbeeti contrlbover th loe reach, thereby reducingcrop stress fom wat shorag. In dter years, the laoangdi experimentsproduce grter beneft ta the model u whout Xisogl under he sm aumpdons (compa expRimentD to A, E to B, F to C, I to G andK to H), bothIn uadded in agrinu te cer lyto a muchgreater exteti energy. Furter, the cases considerXlaolad aloneeve dominatethe Dallushu-WanlaizAl-Qlkou (butno Xlaolangdcase (compatingexpem D to G and E to H) in termsof value addedin

(O) Th Jointoperation of the hreeupper- and middle-reachstorag ilies- Dalushu,Qflku ad Wanliazhal-Isless decvo at contolingsedient and regulig lowerreach flows ta opeationof aoland Alone.When thes fiMes ae oneam butXlaolangdi I not, nt diersions,Irigtod area, gi output,grss outputand value addedIn asgrult are shy les ta coprtvd simulationwith Xlaod alonein wet and nmal yea, and signican less in very dry yea (ale 7.10). Of ou, thesesd t reduct:n in valueadded in agiculturear more offsetby large In valueaddedin power. In additionto Iun contrl nd Irgaton, andwat suply beneft, these pP fAct as he esure to dishre tough theROR pwehouse do not exeeddeosig andtht upstrm nrvoirs ca be opatd solelyfor power gowera (h) Cornpronof the muladity wlhtheba cass (Gadi o A ;md K and H to B) aeo not d- at becas of haes in basc IndsimuladonsG-K,extabasindvesiototheShaxdla r Mongoliaen b are cluded,raing requiredM&I diesions by 22 percent. Waterlos alsoicrease wh th new servoirlosse. bes nw wate demandsand lose ar weigd agsinst nowflexIbilIty in watr suply offerd by Incrasedregulatg capacit. in tm of ovel va added, h rests arevery clear e (ble 7.11). The masive pow ge-erati in thee newrservoirs creates larg valuoadded or ftheomulfaty cas agist whichto base cas cnot compet. In ter of agicultr alone,th rsults ae moremixed (e Tabl7.10). In dry yearsh flexiity offeed by reasedregation domintesbut In wetyes th basecass, with lowerd dmands and fewerlos, are igy better. 0) As expected,in thebas cases,vau addedIn eag l domes totl Valuo added, m about80 prce of totl valueadded (see Table7.11). Vae addedin nrg accountsfr about12 prce of tot valueadded whio valueaddd i muicpal ad ndustrilwter sWly maks up about8 peet of thetota. Gie ths law i droe ad te stady-statoe oncIg storage(ta i, no in _ rervoir m is pmitt and hioefctt hWfmost ofth yea powegeatlon is not In conflt wih - 111-

ITsbb7.10: 2010MGM RUMIS: ENIWGY(000 GWh)

sam case A A A a A 2010 VI VI VI vI ViI i VI iP HP IMP HP HP aP *ee. I & we & & llft 8gr. A 11 ROR off B 0R1 SU vtr C vio vlI v/cV voI VI vi.o VI wio VI 91D ^1D XLD XLD SLD XLD XlLD 91D al A D Ga J 3 B a C I

125 31.7 41.1 68.1 77.4 31.8 41.2 68.5 77.7 31.6 40.9 150 24.7 31.6 53.3 60.1 24.7 31.7 53.5 60.4 24.7 31.4 P75 20.6 25.5 43.7 48.8 20.5 25.7 44.0 49.2 20.6 25.4 n90 17.6 21.0 37.1 40.3 17.7 21.1 37.4 40.6 17.6 20.8 Bas ls 12 23.8 31.5 51.3 S8.8 23.9 31.6 51.4 59.0 23.8 31.3 :;0 17.7 22.9 38.6 43.6 17.7 23.0 38.9 44.0 17.7 22.7 175 14.1 17.3 30.2 33.5 14.1 17.5 30.4 53.9 14.2 17.1 PO0 11.5 13.1 24.2 25.8 11.7 13.3 24.7 26.1 11.6 13.0

125 7.8 9.6 16.8 18.6 1 7.8 9.6 16.8 18.6 7.8 9.6 no 7.0 8.7 14.7 16.4 1 7.0 8.7 14.7 16.5 7.0 8.7 175 6.4 8.2 13.S 15.3 6.4 8.2 13.5 15.4 6.4 8.2 190 6.1 7.0 12.? 14.5 6.1 7.9 12.7 14.5 6.1 7.$ Value (blli.on an P2S 6.4 8.2 13.7 1S.5 I 6.4 8.2 13.8 15.5 6.4 8.2 150 5.2 6.6 11.1 12.5 5.25 6.6 11.1 12.5 5.2 6.5 175 4.4 5.6 9.4 10.5 4.4 5.6 9.4 10.6 4.4 5.5 1t0 3.9 4.8 8.2 9.1 3.9 4.8 8.3 9.1 3.9 4.8

tOD,ther are relativelyfew tradeoffsbetween power g n a d g .oaoSine it is asumedt MM diversionsare fixedt accordance wih curen Chne prace), nomeanni anaysisof tradeoffs bawee MM nd otherend uses is possible. However, In the multifacilties (e., GK), increasesin M8ddemands In mide reachregio a eve in th ba case areflly uig YellowRiver allocatin, forc cutb Inirrigation, whl powergeneraton is subsaWly increased.In these a, valueadded in powerfomney 30perct of tota valuead andtrdeoffs bween powe geneon andIrrigation become more sigifican D. SnZCMcINVEm Ornows 7.17 ImprovementsIn Wateous Effidency(Exerme B). As expected, reaty mail in watercourse effinciesha dmatic consequene. Ih redce wate diversionsperm the modd,wihout adding nw rgltg bfilit to satsfy moreof thefling contran wih floodseason flows and "aduceflows to theos durn th crded grwing period.Compared wi the basecase 2010 A, withte improvedw efflcincyin expemnt B, stess oncomn is reduced(on the Loess Plateau and the Pen and Wel vlys) and rited are I conm,wheat (the Loess Plteau and in th PeFn ad Wei vallys ad ie owerrach) nd coton(the lower reach) ines. Althoughthe model does ot Iclude -112-

Table 711: 2010 Moon RzSULN:VALU ADD (billionyu)

Case A A A B I A 2010 VI 'W I'WI VI WI VI VP UP imp uP P sxp sec. & & 'c & & lift 8r. A BOB ROE off a 101 RBO A"r C via VI w/o VI w/o VI via VI wvi VI 8LD NL KID XII XII XLD 21D) X I LD XLDI A D a J a 5 I a C p

Agrioulturs P5 31.8 33.0 32.7 32.? 33.1 33.3 33.0 33.0 33.1 33.2 P50 33.0 33.0 32.6 32.6 33.3 33.3 32.9 32.9 33.2 33.2 P75 32.5 32.9 32.4 32.5 33.0 33.2 32.8 32.8 32.6 33.2 P90 29.6 31.9 30.3 31.2 31.1 32.7 31.2 31.9 30.0 31.8 lhalclpal and Rural Bousehold Water Supplys P25 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 P50 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 P75 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.10 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 190 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Industruilwater Supply$ P25 3.1 3.1 3.9 3.9 1 3.1 3.1 3.9 3.9 3.1 3.1 150 3.1 3.1 3.9 3.9 1 3.1 3.1 3.9 3.9 3.1 3.1 175 3.1 3.1 3.9 3.9 1 3.1 3.1 3.9 3.9 3.1 3.1 P90 3.1 3.1 3.9 3.9 3.1 3.1 3.9 3.9 3.1 3.1

Total UIM & Rural EouseholdSupplys P25 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 1 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.3 P50 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 1 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.3 175 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 1 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.3 P90 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.3 4.0 4.0 3.3 3.3

Psakla h0erg P25 2.8 3.5 6.0 6.7 2.8 3.5 6.0 6.7 2.8 3.S PSO 2.S 3.1 5.3 5.9 2.5 3.1 5.3 S.9 2.5 3.1 175 2.3 3.0 4.9 5.5 2.3 3.0 4.9 5.5 2.3 3.0 190 2.2 2.8 4.6 5.2 2.2 2.8 4.6 5.2 2.2 2.8

Bass Load herys P25 3.6 4.7 7.7 8.8 3.6 4.7 7.7 8.9 3.6 4.7 IS0 2.7 3.4 5.8 6.5 2.7 3.5 5.8 6.6 2.7 3.4 175 2.1 2.6 4.5 S.0 2.1 2.6 4.6 5.1 2.1 2.6 P90 1.7 2.0 3.6 3.9 1.8 2.0 3.7 3.9 1.7 2.0

Total heug: P25 6.4 8.2 13.7 15.5 6.4 8.2 13.8 15.5 6.4 8.2 PSO 5.2 6.6 11.1 125 i 5.2 6.6 11.1 12.5 5.2 6.5 P75 4.4 5.6 9.4 10.5 4.4 5.6 9.4 10.6 4.4 5.5 P90 3.9 4.8 8.2 9.1 3.9 4.8 8.3 9.1 3.9 4.8 Totals P25 42.5 44.5 50.4 52.2 42.8 44.8 50.8 51.4 42.8 44.7 PS0 41.5 42.9 47.7 49.1 41.8 43.2 48.0 49.4 41.7 43.0 175 40.2 41.8 45.8 47.0 40.7 42.1 46.2 47.4 40.3 42.0 P90 36.8 40.0 42.5 44.3 38.3 40.8 43.5 45.0 37.2 39.9 anyds ton of th costsof such mp et 1brthe P2S-P75 arge year,expeiment B produesY 0.5 billon nmentl valueadded in agdrc (comparedwith experimet A). -113-

7.18 inpwremensnfficiny as domite At Incres In Irrgatd areaI expent C. Duoto th first-comefist-rved alloc patter, expanso In effecciveara Inthe Fenand Wei valleys must be met-other onain, cludingregioa allocationlimits, pemiting-if theygenerate value added befor the morepructive lower reachIs considered.In al flow yes, epeiment C Irig more area B, but generates less valueadded. 7.19 Epanded Manstm U3ttJlgon to theFen and Wd Valleys(peimmt C). As epected, net diversionsin expemnt C are somewhathigher than In the baseca A, but still belowthe 37 billion mvState Counci allocatio Epansions In lift capacityand ffctdvoara in thePen and Wei valleys permit more Irrigon (ofwheat, cor andcotton) and lesscrop stess on con In thesesubbasins. Shne all experimentsare two-tage opdmizatlons, themodd mimizes returnsfrom the Fen and the Wei before considring the lower reach. In dryyears, icrs In Penand W1 agriculturadiversions cut back highe-valued Irrigated area Incoto on thelower reach. Shanrd wheat and corn producdon is of sufficietyhigh value that overallagriutural valueadded increases even in dry yearswhen diversions to theproductive SIl_ong lowerreach are cut back. Giventhe regional allocation, the exasions In liftcapacity andirrigated area in the WeiValley do not haveany impact becuo the WeiValey hits the Shaanxprovinca allocation limit even in thebase case (region SB meets its allocadonlimit in every ), for 2010(Tablo 7.9). 7.20 Xlaolangdl. In all cases,adding X owlangdito reglating worksin 2000 mined the withouXbolangdi, (D vs. A, E vs. B, andF vs. C). Mheadded rulang capacityof aolwan permtsthe model to dealmore flexibly with seasonal flows andsediment fushn, incrsing nt diversionsto agricultureon thelower reach (rable 7.9). laolangdipermits expanded wheat and cottonIrriation on the lowerreach, accruingan incrent of betweenY 1.6 and 2.3 blion value addedin agidultu aloneIn a P90 year k(comig E andB, C wih F, andD withA). However,from a purelyagricultural standpoint, Slaolagdilooks most prong comparedwith A and somewhatless so comparedwith B or C. lhi Isbecause Xiaolangdl regaes thelower reach, while experiment B omewhtreduces the needto regte thelower reach through Its overallreduction in water strss (Bvs. B), andexpeint C achievesits success somewhat at thecost of thelower reach (F vs C). Naturally,from an energy standpoint, the cases wIh Xlaolangdiare farsuperior. In a P25-P75avage year,these expeiments add an inemental 7,067GWh, valued at nearly Y 1.Sbill 7.21 The Imporn of v ts In waterourseefficiencies cot be o PrFn;11"M IIIa comparisonof hebe casefor 2010 with aolangdi,w fithebase case for 2010wIth improved waecours efficiencies(D vs. B), althoughIt dominatein t of tol valu addedIn all years,Xaolan wasn clearlysuror solelyon agricultul grounds. In dry years,Xlaoland's regulat capabilitiesprowved to be moreefficaciu in dealingwith h competingdemands of ag tureand sediment flushing, eacting morevalue added fom thereativey better-endowed lowe reah. However,as watorbecomes less scarce, regulai of the lowe reachbecomes less portanttn te gainsto be had from improvedwater ddeivriesthghout theban. Xaolangdi thanmakes up fortis hroughlargo reases in powergenrtion. Th comparis doesnot inlude allof lolgds benft (thebenft of floodconol andsedment depoition are xcluded),nor does k comparthe rdeti program costs. -114-

7.22 S on aalysisid s a In moWyeas Xlaolangs M mm atormap ina 3. billiom'iP ru YAndlt mnm lev isa ud 0.6blUlomsat thesltaof floodseeo in Jiu Dueto thesedimet flusing need of h lowa rces, theg st pa of the annualflows (the flood ason flows*om June to Septeber) r flusd rog th reservo. Alhog thereservoir s permtd to flllto Itslive capacity of S.1blio dufing te winterand rIng seasons,ve In thewett yew hereare inadequ witr flowsad suffici springseson igaion demandsso thatstorage does not eczeed3.8 billion nil. Ex 2010: CONCLONS 7.23 Mmmajor fiig of the Simulationsfor 2010is dt, givenconsevatve estimatesof seclr growthin populaionand Industry, sedimet flushing ed*ctie krrgatedarea, distributionparamete, crop yields,ouW prices,fam cost, ad regona alocatn lmis, basinwat suppliescan matchbasin waterdemands oly If oe t 19 mMillnmu of effectiveIrigated area In the middleand lower reaches (22 prce of all effectv Irdgatedarea in 2010)are revertd to rainedfauming. IIin watercour efficence wi reducethe exte of thisconversion by about10 prcen but mor thn 15 milionmu (over17 percent of all effectveirrigated area in 2010)will stll hawvto be retid fro Irrigation,assuming expansion plans ae realized. 7.24 mprov in waterdisbudon wouldallow signficant increases in rigod area,outu andvalue added over unimproved cass, whichin tu rdeas more watr fx sedmnt flushn. A strongca canbe madefor an extrmey cautios aprah to ew isnigation, whil considerablegains remain to be madefrom In distributi -n - . A strategytha increasingly reflec the al costsof ddeir water to end-sers wouldser the dual purposeof strengtheningInenives for wa conservation wbhebprig theloca fisa environmentfr such ve .2 Ihe nowregulto acflities, andespaly theX iaoresrvoir, w reduc th cts of the watr shortagesby pemiting icad seaonal flexibi n handlig sedintmflushing, Iiaion andM&I water supply needs. In theprocess, tee new iidts wMlg_omo consWetable _nmvmentdvalueadded in agrcul md power.Morover, these ho entevalu do not Io thevery sizablebeneft which acu fromthe flood and Ie-o un opern of the facities. 7.26 Nonetdelss,in the absenceof multlyearopeatig policiesfor Longyangila whichmit pemi interannualmng to alleia someof thes shortges,ad withu south- north nsrsIo the YellowRiver system, even wi nearly14 bilion nilof newstoap in ee cilities,the rpkdly esaating watershortages will ure lae rctions in iigad copped are. 8 MAJORCONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

8.1 This studyhas reiowed the majorconcerns ad prioddesfor planingand _M9902"of the Yellow River Bads andmade preliminay conclusion. lhes are: (a) The contrl of flooding,pariarly on thelower reach, s the mostuet Priority; (b) Usecontr of sdimnt, t dqeson of wbichhas aaded de lowereach andexaerbatd th floodcontrol problem, (c) Theprmotion of rationalutlization of the bais wat resources,whbih mpUe mximidng the economicbeneft frm nigao, but with due Pr III 0-i to equitycoens forthe poorerfm in theupp andmiddle ad (d) Hnss a uh as eonoicly feible, the m ener pofte of therie. 8.2 his studyhas a nted dththe objectvefor devemen and _ ofte lu svere conflic: mostobjectives can only be acievedat theepme of otes The b nopaca fordh bais problems.Whatever souWo arepursued must be addressed caredly andwithn a fIamork ta enforcesconssten andpeTs simutneos evdalu of a varity of effocts. YRCC,the agoey responsiblefor YellowRiver dovdopmet ad doesnot hae sucha fiameor, andmany of th dat upo wh it basesI decion areoutd, Ibomplet and isem Thisstudy offer a preiminayveion of su a famewok, nd haspoint out he crcal e Inwhbih data need to be pwoved, esecaly withreard to econom andag data. 8.3 AlthougbChi planr he log discussedthe looming wathorta ltois basi, r numer projecdtowere often at odds with on noder,and with dtr owndata Th useof thebai levelmode fbrced eon theassumpt ion ad data mWloyefwr sc ptoojecdon,ad pwvid somesobing reuts: althoughwater demand and supy ar lor -Wma inbalac atprse (apartfrom 4lo!-nd saonal sorges), th balnc wllm deate rapiy a theyea 2000nea. 8.4 Pas ar Inplace to incres newlyrtd areaby about44 pecen betwe Lg90oand 2000, and y doublethe dierion to municipaland Indt ial in the - 116.. am timefim. The iver systemhas adequateflows to acceptnew diversionfor MM. Howee, plansfr new ition willsrely strn the ytom by the ye 2000;by 2010, thesystem wil be stvahakted In allbut the wette runoffyears wile. thereare signficate hi, to ImprovIigat efficiency. 8.5 A varietyof propose vmv are multpu e reservoirs laoagdl, Dalushu,Qlku andWaajiaa). Costdata for t_hes Inem areorude at best (and keyed to different,often unkmown basos), and with the excepdon of Xlaolangdl,littlo atmpt basbeen mab to qunt economicbeneft. Our best gues Is hat the enir ptogramwould cos upwardof $1Sbillion. Moat of themultipurpose dams ar stroly justified;some of theother 1v "i maynot bojustfieddue to seve waterdstages.

8.6 lIme,data, and ro consai hae severelylimitedt stdy. Innumnble Issuesad tionshave beenraised which did not receivethe in-depthanalysis theydeserve. Firm conusions ar undodly prematur, and need to be carelylly reviewed when In I -- databecome available. Nevertheless, conclusions ad re dio mustbe

(a) Dnad Managn-e and WaterChapge Reform. Presentpolicy seems to um thatth Yllow Riveris a fre good with low or zero opportunity. Farmerstypically pay one or two fen/ml,and MM uses, 20-32fenfn. This udy sa av e eowomicreturn / of about24 fen to irrigators,with ma returns 21 of S0 fen or mmreat criical peiods of the year. The oppotnity costof diverd waterin tams of hydpower ouput aloneis about 5 fenn for watr take out in the up reacs. The study endorssrapid Impleentationof the 1988Water Fanci Directidof MWRto pricowater at ma costsand to ensu como'etecost rovery by 1997. Thestudy would frther recommendthat in viewof the soe watershrfta in the years2000 to 2010,MWR seruly cmsiderintroducing in additionto maugal costpdrn, an elemet (30-S0percent) of oppotnity cot of water in the water pricesto rect maginalrent due to abortag, and hat this pricebe reflcted in the oomic aalyss for all now vtments in thewat sector. (b) R olg Water Allocation.Water-wing project, even when combine with more rationalpriig, may not be sufficientto erase the shorges projectedfor the longe term. Acordingly, YRCCbas defineda patternof provincWalocation to aton thesupply. But the prese allocationis such a thereis an overaocationof waterfor the upperreach provins who ar not ableto ableutlize I becauseof the lackof demandand/or the lackof stuctes to divertwaW. May of the worksneeded ar large suc which maynever be buit bocaus of the largeinvesm requm andIn some

do yea. 21 Mmmargin al on trns epest to marg for sho atgcriti washu - 117-

cases envonmen Implications.It istherefore recommended a therebe a realocationof thewat resowresbased on a morerealLstc demand patern. Unti the are ristic allocion provisionsthiat YRCC can enorco, the upper- and middle-reachregions wil probaolycontio to followwhat we havetermed the 'flst-cme, firtservedwnue in stblishing watr ribts whichis potentily detrintal to basin-wideeconomic perfomance.

(c) Ratatio and EMdency Improvemen In Irrigation. Giventhe swerity of futur watr shortagesand the highmarginal value of watr In Irigation, te effortsto Improvethe efficiencyof water deliveryand use must be given the highestpriority; such works can be Implementedtapidly. Cunt loss raes are highby generalChinese standards and contributeto basin-widewater tages. Howeverthey wouldoften require fairlyheavy local Investments (at least $1.3 billion)to correct. Locaities may be more stronglyinined to make such Investmensif waer chargesto them includeat least an elementof opportuity cost. Perhapsintroduction of such water fees shouldbe a conditionof centra rmen fuding for any new diversionschemes in the basin. (d) Expasion of rigaton. 'he plas for expandingirrigted ar are undoubtedly far too ambitiousgiven water availability and rapidly growing M&I and ewrabasin demands. Only abouthalf of the planed additionof 26 millionmu is justified. The plansshould be reviewedand revisedas soon as possibleto preve wasWd

(e) Sedment ControlMesur. he futurewater balce pictue dependsmore on how muchwater Is need for flushingsedimt thanon any othersigle factor. Conervationefr at the sourcemust be promotedvigorously to reducethe total sedime loadin the lowerreahes. Theflushing water needs can be reducedand the saved war can be used for irrigaton. To this end it is strongly recommendedthat the govement investIn mid-reachsoil conation workto to loadby at lest 100lilion m?by yo 2000. 'Mere sould be reducethe 2 at leas th projectscostg $300million each covering 15,000-20,000 km each in the mid-reah coarsesand areas. Xiaolangdwill be a8ti be requiredto regula the sedime andfor flushingit out to the sea. (M ReservoirProject. Xaolangdi is the most urget, and probablythe most economicallyviable muldpurpose project proposed. Withoutsediment tpping or regulationby Xlaolngdi, a changein river coursewill occur soonerrather ta later, withcatastrophic economic and soci consequences.The specterof a majorflood will contime to overhng the entirelower reach, including its most productiveftaland andChina's major oilfields. Xlaolangdi will also be required to trap much of the coarsesediment and regulatesediment and water flows in orderto flushi out to the ocem. Consevaon, entrapmentand flowregulon howver will reduceflushing watr reqiments; significantvolumes of water will alwaysbe neededto prevent agdon at the esay and main in an ecologi balamce.Dalushu is probablythe secondmost important multipurpose project,given the movhed reg It wouldserve, and its Impa on eeg productionand flooding. . 118-

(gregtenn Planng Capebilltyand Use of a Con_stn Analydcl Framwork In YRCC. The invement progm aalyzed In ths study Is perasve, epenive, ad In general,takes a struct approachto solvingthe Bsins problem. Givena capitalshortge In Chlin,and Ite oompetionfor vestment Pfndsfom othersectors and region, thepogram in unlikelyto be funded14 full. TheInsdtutions Ivolved, pardtularly YRCC, need to strengthen thir iavesmentplnning capabilitiesby iDg steps in seva diecdons: towars rolving manyof thedata issues raised by thi studyand astreng ing thek planing capabilitiesin genea; and exploringless costly, nonstuctua alteatives whicheither meet some of theBasWs problem or orestallthe need for structur inteventions.To this end YRCCshould undertake the following: O Data BaseDevelopment. Under a UNDP-slsed stdy, Initialsteps havebeen takenwithin YRCC to establisha computrizeddata bas coverighydrologic, agricr!tural, and economic data base peaning to the Basin Thisefort oughtt )e coinued, withall interestedpartes wihin the Basininvolved in *, assemblyand use of this system However, there are gaps and inonsistencieswhich must be resolved. Direct Informion on ITrigatedcrop yieldsshould be collected,given the enormousef ta havegone into hiraon developmet Pullwater baance accountingshould be availablefor any recoentyear. Moden methodssuch as remoteswsing, sataite imageryand automateddata ery mustbe pursued. 01) Panning Mehodology.Until quit recnly, YRCCwas fced to rely Onanquated spreaheet typemethods to analyzealtrative deveopment scenaios. Webelieve that these deficiencies in planing methodology, as wellas data nadequacies,are reled to someof the i tnes I ft wter balances.Under the above-mentoned UNDP study, YRCC plansto obtainmore moden computers, and a detailedsimlaton model of theBasin. heBLM is also available to YRCCtopo consitnq- genforcincomparative-static analyses of futuredevelopment scerlos. YRCCshoud adoptthe methodologyof the BLMto developa more detailedinvestment plaing model to analyzefit evelopment scnrios andtheir economic Implications. (l) EoonomIcStudies. Themajor weakness, however, in all of the local planningefforts is a lack of economiccontent in whathas been an essenily engineeringapproach. YRCC does not possess graduatelevel econom. Vially no attentionhas beengn to possiblepricing soludomsto theemerging water shortag problem, and many of thebasic dat requredto carryout such a studyare lacking. YRCC should, under theUNDP funding, serioudy consider sending several staff to underta formalgrduate economicscoures and build up a core of eoonomits witin tie Commission. -119-. A1it

HYDROLOGYAND WATER RESOURCES

A PYSCAL a cs

1. Geoaph. Ihb YsllowRiver, Chinas sewocS g tri, 1 5,464km ln fromits souce in theYueguzoie Basin,an thenote eg of the ayakaa Mountainson the Qnga Plateauto itsmouth on theBohai Sea in KengliCounty, Shadong. In it tals overth. ditanceitpasses through nine pzovlnceai-QIhai, Sichan, Gan, Nb a, Nelmog, hmi, SMnxL,Hena and hadog. lU. YdlowRiver Bsin, bw latitudenorh 320 and 42e andlogiude east96° and 119, eoomm9 an armaof 752,000kbn of widy vaying clmat and reief (Map 24548).J/ 2. GM. TheYellow River cn be dided intote dsct secin: upperreach, the iddlerea andth. lowerreach (se Table1). e upper ahes, bewen thesource and Heowuzhen in Neimeng, the statt of theYellow Rivers gre tun to thosouth, lie between2,500 and 4,500 m abovesea level and are dchad by mounta grs and wide,lake-filed hIg valeys nea the source,and hig de valepysand narrow gorgeslower down. Moderate preclpkition-300to 600mm per year-fis ont upperstetch of tils reachwith Is lmitedwater demand, whe to lowerstre fm Lanhhounotth to the Mongolianstepp, receivesminimal rainfall in thefac of lr irrigationdemands. 3. no middleracs, bewen He henand HEynakon, le bwe 1,000 dnd2,000 m abovesea level and encompass th highMngolin galad (inldi bothth HetsoPlain and the Erduo Basin),the Loe Plateau(ldi two of the YdlowRies majortrbutaty bas, theFen Riv Bain in Shnd andthe Wei Rve BasinIn Shab, and theYellow River reaches through the Tahag nt As a rest of sever s erosonan th LoessPlateau, caused by infrequentbut sevre stors, teowncupift ad bumanactiviltes, 1.4bIion tonsof sedime a yea ar pond no theYelow Rier to be depotd an the lower reahes. 4. Onthe lower reaches, bee theHuaysnq ou and the Bob Sea,te riveris a l gag systemand s w od win,396 kmof ds on bot bas. Norh of thedikes, the well deveoped and desely popuIatd allual pa of theYelow Iver belog to theHai River Basin. Southof thedikes, the Yellw Riv allwvalplains awel as tholow oobls of centraland sou ShandongProvin arepat of thefn Riv Basin. 5. ler are76 YellowRiW tbutaries wih labrgethan 10,000 kn. Oftee tibutaries,ther we 14with anal. w er olumeinxaces of 1 billiont or carring

795,00 kin. 31 f th cosed Enluosi Basin is nyclued. t, Yelow Rive Badn has an no of -120- ANNIC 1

Tabb 1: CHAU OF TM YEUOWRavE AT Mi Swnomor T1 RJE

511 Of Iegt the of thae Vff.r. Drop Cl. I Stm, 'w/Am Dotiou o 1in aed CatoiRate lvrt iIil D op 8 of tie u Sa pot (h) (km) () (01000) To Lt

Orifs to Tuoketuo 385,966 3,472 3,676.0 31 43 14 29

UDaer Reaeh 1. OSg. to .da 20,930 270.0 445.0 16.5 3 0 3 2. MNdoto QissdenS xi* 254,074 2,353.6 3,082.0 13.2 32 11 21 3* Qnsg4ui to Suoketuo 110,962 868.0 149.0 1.7 8 3 5 Tuoketuo to Taohuayu 344,070 1224.3 894.9 7.3 s0 16 14

1. Tuoketuo to Ymmeakou 111,591 725.1 507.3 8.4 21 11 10 2. isneskou to Tonsqgan 184,584 125.8 52.2 4.1 4 2 2 3. Tongpga to Taohuayu 47,895 373.4 235.4 6.3 5 3 2 Tohuayu to Y1.1o1 Mouth 22,407 767.7 89.1 1.2 3 2 1

I. TaohuaY to Saocm 4,110 188.6 32.8 1.7 1 1 0 2. GaocuMto aocheurs7 4,60 165.4 20.2 1.2 1 1 0 3. Taochespu to ljJa 13,055 310.1 28.7 0.9 1 0 1 4. lijl to blUm 3. Mouth 574 103.6 7.4 0.7 0 0 0 orgIn to T0OW 1. louth 752 445 St4.6 4,660.0 8.5 76 32 44

Source: YRCC TYeLlowRiver Water Reutrce Utflizdion "1986, Table 1-1-1, p.8. anu sedime loadsgeaer tha 100miion to, (seeTable 2).V It dsold be notedhat thes tribties conuto 56 percentof the maism ri flows. Ihe rest of t wa is dervedfom th headwau ad fom soepageflows into the main stem. B. CULuu, IRnoLWa, AMWATER R"NouRCs

Cate 6. Iho YeolowRhw basin ts asde two fid lly d ret climatic zones- dry nteior aa primariy ienced by the Asian lad ma nd one coastal ar witha cm nsoon cimate. Betweenthem lies a trasitionalzone, the Lows Plateau. Ibe upperrach andpat of themidle rach arenot subjecto monsoonsat all. Theupper bab s at elevado varyg fom 3,000-5,000m andhas no fro-fre perods;In thelower

V1 TamemoBalh,UmHeft,thoTackde t 11 bo Z ft QkVn_,&hti Daheih, IthoKuy1 to Wvdis tlw PenFho, Weiht, Ydo , d Qino ad tdo Da*w (o Map24548 tex). -121- ANNBI

Tabb 2: Mar Trlbutary Stms of the YedlowRiver

to u.*=. Oirte LVUUA SM9 =941River31td ,tS bIlow tI.=tf ,aeg4* tub vt

3amu River3 R 472.j 1:t 24.97) 5.U 0.340.20 3maeb lA 1. 5,9. 22.14 212 l.9 t.44420 1904 4-.56 12 j447 0.14 1.60 St 31 S.U1211.0"110.422 133a. 1922-19 018 046 922.4 1,44 220.8 1* 4. 0.04 Tild "tr L 1,992.6 11,61) 2229 1.41 6. 1950 79 0.17 0.77) 1.2 ""t * ~1, 1.2 6,104 24je .* Ibjd t.4a 64214.197$, 20.41, t 49 .JO1. *n. 19)4.M *300 .44 1 m 492.6: 1.11 0,21 19"I1',. 1.4 Ivor1lI L 1,250.) S9,471 179 9.4) 5.2 Re*xet 14.4).4 as U8.0UleAl1.2 )4 U7.8ist u_ 1936 2.S4 then liver a 627.8 16.661 444.9 1.75X leIS f16542 I19 7t92u.5 11,53SO 6.1 H:14 79 j1ws 296.9 6." 209.0 ." td_ 0. 0 0."

Souce -YeHowRiver Waer ResourceUto, p.9. Table 1-1-2.

ah thsere about 180-220frost-fre days. Table3 givesdeied climatichnfoma on th regios of the basin.

7. Fromthe sourceto Loongya (upperreah-Region 1) the cim s c old;do aveag monthlytemperature tanges between -12e and 101 C and many areas have no frost-free p /lods.IAnnual sunligbt s about2,300-3,000 hours. Precitation in from north to south,and aty 70 prcen fals betweenJun and Septemb. Annualevaption averaesebetwen 800 and 1,200mm. S. Fromlato Lazou (upperreach-RegIon 2) the climatei qute cold, with a averogemonddy _.tempem trge betwee -60 ad 18lC.&/ (Annal averago precpation raes betwoe 304 mm),but ralil Is bothsptlly and sasonallyuneve, withpreipaton concentratedaway from the m _ nd 60-70peret fallingin the June- Sepmber period. An e sp ranges between 700 and 1,200 mm. (Ier are between30 and 120fwt-fre days nd 2,300-2,600hours of £sns .) 9. In the regionbetweena u ad Wuhai(upper ach-Region3A), the border of Oawnuand Nigi, whs and pring are cold and dry wh little snow but ftrquet s_dw. Sumo a W an bathanddrywthex*nl - anod scat= Iat. rap ammdt _mpwo ranges between -10 and 221 C. Avag anual precipiao I 150-450mm of which 7040 perce fas In the June-Spember piod

2l YRCC,Th YWkow R Al,r 1987. ifbA" St bDA .122- ANNXI

Table3: CumhIC wnuOmO NR TU Yzuow IRn BAN

ant= It"t GM*~i IV (a) 1' ) (sje) (ba (a 1 ' () (i

$.00040 .1a 10 0 800-.000 0004s,2o 0000 142 (522)

8,00044,000 -4 It SO-1n0 2.30-.00 700-1800 0o04o0 127 (232)

1,9004,500 .10 2 1800-10 2,4404.200 1.200.0400 150-450 10 (32)

1,1-.W 1.1 88 I0O-0 3,004.200 2,1004-.00 80O0- 10 (22)

(8.61. 4) 1,t.01,4t0 -4 20 OO-U30 1.4400.1.000 .5004200 200-400 40 (10)

W MVa2o*[ 7004,000 -4 24 18-40 1*9002,0 000.1.200 400-00 228 t)X)

(qlam 53) 50700 4 so s2480 10,0044.0oo 0o04,0s0 520-550

=m"*) ?00.700 . 24 15024 1.900.2,400 000,400 400-0 100 (142)

I00O-" -4 27 2101410 2,500-4,ISS 1,500-2,500 400-700 4 l.a.j Maim 78) 0.0 .4 30 104-22 2,5004,200 1,900-,100 4000M l ..

Source:YRCC, Yell Rtw Aft.

ysI bewe 120 and2,000 mm. Solarradiation I ample,2,437-3,203 hours but the lost-free tiod, 100-180days, s qe shor 10. Mhe gionbewen Wua andHdwouen (upper reach-Region 3B) has an arid Cm,-tinonw dima e, extreme" _hsoma and w tompoteandantw low, ,rrgularaiaL mot of whih Is in th smmer monts. Avera daiy rag from a lanu low of 411Cto 23C In July. Winter remai belowfeeziog frm Novembrto Ma a fost-f perod of 130-160day Al a fowrto five-ont growing um howevr, good h aoditis (3,200hours annually) ae a po factorin plant growt Avae aual precipitationin dhewestern part of the ron Is 130-150mm and in tho ester part 300400m.L Of ths precipitation7080 percent ll In theJuly-September period Annual " IraloIsa hih-2,100-2,300mm.Highwindsandsandsatormare

11. In reon be e Heuz andLonm (mdle reach-Reion4) de climate lscolda dry in whand ng,wlthf sn ms. Summs andMU are soing. Ihe avea monthly Isbetwoe -6 and20° C wihndite basinand between -10° and22W C on th Erdosd F[ateau2 ual Precipitationwkhin the basinrage btwee 400 ad 600 mm, ad inceasesto he south,with 70-80pecen concentratedin the June-

YRC Yellw Rwm . Ibi. aid Ww lnk1 19VNeaan, Igea Pj.a, Staff A4 pu Rios, No,709CM, Wa _auhtD.C., 1988. V TACC,Mew Riw Aulw, bS -123 -

Setmbe peod only15-25 pcnt fallingin the crticalApril June gron period. A dnl ovapotsirao I between1,000 and 1,400mm. Drought ae commonn. he lEdui Pla bseven dder, with annual precipitation bt 200and 400 mm anie bawee 1,400and 1,800mm. For the regionas a whole,the nmbe of fst-fre is between100-230 and the hour of sunshn betwee 2,500and 3,203.1/ 12. Forthe Pen Valey (middle reah-Region SA) the cimate Is gally mfld,wth adequa ainfatat Icreasesfrom north to south. Theaverage monthly ranges from-4 to W4C.Anna cipriation avergs 400-0 mm,sixty to sevety pcet of the prepitatn facesto al rainsin thesummer months and e pira i betw 800 and1,200 mm. Iher arebetwen 135-240frost-free days and 1,900-2,400 houts of wiW 13. Ihe WeiValley (middle reach-Regon SB) has a continentalmnoon clma withdry, modeately cold witers andhot, wet mmers. Thoaverage daily e sr raege froma Januy low of -21Cto 30eCin July. Anual preipiion averae 520-0 mm ThereIs considerale,saonal and annualvaio in preptatinL Fiftypece of it of concentratedin theMy-September pedod. Thefrost-fee period is about220-230 days alows a se o eiht monhgrwing Pd.2/ 14. In theregion between Sanmeia ad uuankou (middereah-Region 6) te, wis arecold and dry, spring is dry andwindy and summers, and fl aroedc ce d by tor asndfrequent floods and hot splls. Theavrage monthly e ranges betwe -20 nd 24C andthere are betwee 150-245fost-fre days.W Avage amnal precipitioIsbetween 600-900 mm, with sixty to seventypercent of theprecipitation fals in June-September.Anmnua average evapotranpiratlon ranges between 900 and 1,200 mm. 15. The climat In the egionb e Huyuankouad HezeIn Shandong(lower reac-legion 7A)Is tmperatecnine na monsoonprig is dy andwidy withoccasona sandstorms;summer Is hot ad wet,leng to excessivenfo floo andwaeogin i someparts of th regio; fall i dryt and wit Is moderateycold ad dry. Th me annual _ empuis 140C,the dy ts rangesfrm a lowof 4C I Januaryto a h of 270Cin July. Thefrst-fe perod Isabout 186-210 da andte Isabout 2,500-3,18 hors of sun annaly. Anduaain Isbetwe 600700mm. Me aresignificant Interamnal and ivaritond In all; 70 pert lls In theJune-S b period. Men anMnlevap o Isbewe 1,500and 2,000 mm 16. Thereon be Hue andthe Bohai Sea Oower reach-Reg 7A)is fvrd wit a warmtempert c e wih a moderatemonsoon. Ave ddly _at nrange fom aJny lowof -4C to ahi of 28 in July. Annal averagerainfl rangesfrom 6- 800mm. About55perceatofthepitadonoccursin JulyandAus Winterand sprig t/ For fthrsgkm within the basin, tdo number of frou-fieeday rangebetwee 100 and 230 md th Inuberof _iour betwoee 200-3,18. Fo te BeldtosPlatew, do eqev fipes an 160days and 2,868-3,203 ho peryea. 3/ Wolddan, 19, hIa, ArkIuwd DevIopmgPrjec, Stff AppraisalRsport, No. 747S- CHA,Wshion, D.C. W YRCC.Yer*w XIw Ark& -124- ANN}BL

ar generallydry, summerhot andwet, andfal moderste.Ij Anna evaporatioI about 1,900-2,100mm and the are 210-220frost-fee days. ThereI adequatesunlight contios (2,700hours annually) for mostcrps. 17. Hydrologyand WatR lesourcesRainfall. Annual average precipitation (based on 1956-79data) is 476 mm,and its tota volumeis about358 billion m; if Iernal es are included,the procpitaton would be 466 mm and tota volurmwould be 370billion nil. 18. Precipitaionis unevly diibutd from400 mm in thesoutheat, It inre;a to 800-900mm on thenorth of theQinling Mountain; srng Inthe northwest falls to about150 mmin theWuhai, Dekou area(except for th areaon theQiliansa Mountain where it Is about 600 mm). 19. Thetime distributon of rainl varieswith by month:precipitatn ftom June to Septemberpve 6040 percent of the anal tota; July and August are the peak months, withmost precipiat failingin storms. Theprecipation in the rst of year Isonly about 20- 30 pacent,and only about 10 pert of dds fals in Apil andMay. 20. Th anual r precipitationIn thebasin, (a wetyea) I 3-4tmes that of the minmum(a dry yer). However,in the northpart of tebasin, the minimumstomaximum ratiois 7-10times greater. For example,at Shifhislan station,48 mmfell in 1965and 358 mmin 1947,a rationof 7.5 timesgreater; at Shenmostadton, it was 118mm In 1965and 819 In 1967,or 7 imesgrater, atHumglin staon, 112mm fail in 1936and 1,271 mm in 1940-an amount ta I 11 time greater. 21. Dryseason precipitation varies considerably from year to year:at Nemon Shanba sDon, precipitationfor June-June1968, was 1 mm,but it was95 mmfor July-June1964, more ta 90 timesgreater. In the southpurt of the basin,the coefficiet of variability(C,) is 0.25 andit in towardthe nort reachngabout 0.40-0.50 at Hetao. 22. TIs spatia and temporaldisrbution of precipitationis the mainreason for the sprig droughtsand atumn floodsthat characterize the YellowRiver Basin.

Surface Watwe 23. Accordingto the 56 yearsof da recordedfrom 1919 to 1979,the long-em nual ave aul uoff at Huaynlwu hydological stationis about 56.5 x 10 en BCM per year, and about46 x 109en a dry year. About58 percentof the *unoffcomes ftom the region upstreamof TaIou and te reahes betweenLoe and Huauanlou. Below Huayuanouthere Is an addiond 1.6 x 10' billionmV/year that flowsin the lowerreach, gig 58.2x 10'bion nflyearas the total YeJlow Rver surfacewater sourcefor an averoa year. Table4 showsthe long-tem average flows from dfferent parls of thecatcbment Ihes flowswere derived aftr measuredflow was adjusted for irrigationand M&I consumpto 24. he totl surfacewater resoue s about15 percent of theprecipitadon for th baI. About32.6 bcm/yr (56 percent) of surface wat Isdived fromthe catcent upstream

Ul1 WodtBank, cuahdA*dcaewlopmeadSCpet eRP70nApprsaRepn, No. 7S13-CRA, W _shgto,D.C., 1989. av~~~-

4 -|a]Rlt x~~~~~~~~l '0P|bIi -A ~~~ 4$~~~ -126- ANNEXL

Table4: YUlow RIVI FLOWS

awdIIi Wu~ az mumU RM UIwSv-81 tGa21 g t ~~~~%MR41.(w) . ve wne Cw Cv* W s14) d4Os 13,$650 10.50 U1.85 6.15 022 34.22 17.4 10.17 1924 84 20.6 146 .11_ t_ib* U.U51 U. 10.36 13.2 0.U 51.51 107-4 14.35 1026.2 st no"4 o." ToIl. ado"" USA0 81.74 10.47 1.81 0.88 54.17 1047-4 14.02 1026. 8.4 .9 8.14 b21 1_ 49X7.2 53.0 2.50 15.45 0.21 4.2 147.4 1.4" 1262 . .74 81 44 28.97 8.2 46.5 41.01 1411v um_ #U. 4 21 0 29.63 20.54 0.23 77.02 1044 1026429 T*UOW aW _ ON 33.51 2.83 0.24 93.87 106445 27.35 1926420 8.4 54.41 44 *Vd lejI 36.736ffi 0k 1. 0.48 0.40 4.18 I044 o.7 10- S.4 1.05 1.48 6.3. bANVa 25,154 0.76 0.4 0.44 0.43 1.05 10I4.U4 0.87 1057. 8.0 0.2 0.51 woose -anS 1064.9 $..7 5.1$ 8.59 0.39 19.42 19307. 3.01 192640 di .40 4.M Toll biabA. 16.54 8.51 2.12 1.39 0.43 $.60 1"444 0.73 10367 18.0 8.8 8.48 Q1sAW ImOM 1MM80 1.40 0.97 0.58 0.46 8.14 104344 0.44 1051.U7 4.0 1.40 0.0

Tbe 5: RATixosK. 1o Wzr ADm yvYzm station Very vet Part. vet Average Part. dry Ver dry

Laumhoiz >1.30 1.30-1.091.09-0.92 0.92-0.75 4 0.75 3"Se zia >1.29l 1.29-1.07 1.07-0.92 0.92-0.75 < 0.75 Isen Wide :P1.35 1.35-1.10 1.10-0.890.89-0.63 4 0.63

PfrlodsofWet Yeas and Dry Yers 26. Inorder to detemine wheer theflows in any year e typiealofa wet or dry yea, long-toemaveage flowswere comparedwith tie flow for ta ye. IU vau of Ide rio, Iihcas wheh th flowsbelong to a wetor a dryyea. Valuesmud high han oneIdhrc wet yer andtho muchlower than one indcae dry years. Tab S dws db tosassociated with wet yeas fromdry ys indifeent par of th Yeltow Rie Basn 27. o hydobgirecords ir 1919to 1979show dha during thesk decae *r waso verydry pedod In the basin bee 1919and 1929 when X, wa 0.67(or theavemp fow forthe 10 yam wer 33 pece les). Ihere wa onewet priotd inde 19600 decadb whenavrg flo we 21 perac higher.Table 6 showsthe peods ofwet am dryyam forLaho inthe upper reach and for Sanmeuxa In thelower part of themiddle read

28. Tleloe periodof£drougt occmured olyO In the73-y perio Derin hispeiod river fow wereslower y (K wa 0.89 to 0.5). TM ony othe periods ofdrought hae been a few dry yea: 1941/42, 1956/57and 1972173. Figure 2 how the valuesof und aprolong drugt period. -127- ANNkY

Tabb6: WEr ANDDRY DCAm sME,1919-79

Yesr Sanmmnxa tLanzhou Tribu-tarbola. Ti( Fbilow) 19 (binil) (blna ) (binI")

1920-29]A 38.40 0.76 26.45 0.81 11.96 0.67 1930-39 48.73 0.97 31.94 0.98 16.80 0.95 1940-49 54.02 1.08 34.98 1.07 19.02 1.07 1950-59 52.26 1.04 32.17 0.99 20.08 1.1) 1960-691k 58.86 1.17 37.44 1.15 21.42 1.21 1970-79 50.00 1.00 32.66 1.00 17.34 0.98

L Sbadedarea-indicates very dry 10-yearperiod. 1k Wet period. Sout.e:t1CC "YellowRliver Water Resources Utilization Study," 1986.

29. The reuenceof multiyeardroughts can be determinedby theannual cuai*ve avrageflow curves for (1911-74), whic shows the dhns Inwet ad dryfOw yewt.As the m swisprogrs, the diffen becomesmaUer and smaller unt a ste levl I readhed. Accordingtothe analysisandas shownin Figure2, the mecumcemof a drougtas lengyas tt In 1922-32occurs about every 50 years. To avoid Iheloss in ag:c reftom this ypeof drought over-yearstored wste inupstream dams audi as 1ongynyishudw be mbid in longdrouSg to supplywater agiul.

Seasona Flow Variblty 30. About60 percentof theanual riverflow occr duringJuly to October.Mm fow thes months ar alDomore viable from year to year flows in the ot moudis.A plotof thecoefent of vaiabilityshows that the monthly vrity (0.3tD 0.41) Isalmost 50 pcet morethan the annualflow variblity. DuringDecember to Feray I teo upperrea, the C, is dramaticallyteduced (se Figure3). A _s plotfor the monl flowsfor 56 yar betwee 1919to 1974 shows that most of the varibil own InJuly to Octob (seeFigu 4 and5). Themony varibilit of thelower reach tuti (Pen Wel-Qia)double that of themain river, C, = 0.72-0.65. C. GROUNDWATERRESOURCES 31. Rocz IWbA caried out by the Mistry of Geologyad Miea (MM indiates t theexplotable groundwar sourcesIn YellowRiver Bin amountto 18.7x 10'ae (acconto almot onethird the eploitablesufa runff Inthe basin. At presentt tot amountof undwaeractuly eploitedeceeds 9.2 x 104D0,whIch s third ofdie amount sufc wa consumedHen, ratonal devpment andu ofgro war resou i thebasin i of great nmce. Sincethe 1980sboth MWi*y of WaterResou -128- UWN~

1gure2: Yzuow Rim D AVAE Fw

1.02-I.04

0.U4 C 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.98

0.92 0.78 1.79 1 19~7 1bI 1947 191 159 1,9 IA73.1

0 Longyongpxtl + Lanzhou * 0l Ishu A Hakou.n X T)aic)ao V Lon0,mn

MWR)and h0 MinitY of Geology d Mieas (MGM)have be wasssig goundwae resoures ir the wholecounty. Tae 7 showsthe exploitablegundwater resoces In dfferet regis of the YelowRiVer Basin by thetwo agenda. 32. TheMW andMGM esmates differ considerably because they use differt metodologis to estmate the wer resoce common to surfce and groundwater. Sho exloitablegroundwater resources given by MWRwer obtanedby subtrcti the water resourcescommon to bothground and surfc watrsfom thetota reage to ground. his meanstha the MWR'sesimt of thecommon resources ncludes surfa water,while In ho MOMWs a large amountof th commonresources we ncude in the runldwater estmae whene therersour wee consderedexploitabl. In m o andhgly ar, where e watwtable idp ad grundwat extacon s limited, imostof the reca e wate gov%to ers as bas flowand it is sonableto includethis part of groundwaterrwha In SuaLI waterresources. 33. In theplai areas,wher thewater table is notdeeply bried andthe conditions awefvorable for tie developmenof groundwaterresouc, the recharg to groundwatercan easilybe exploiedfor agricuual anddomestc uses; a smallpart of it will go tOrecha sufa wate. hisi especallytmue in t lowerre of the YelowRiver whe the wat leve Is biigthan the soundn ar Int case,a greaterpart of groundwaterrechar or the commonresoures dsod be inde in the exploibe grundwaterreourceL oDdwa mecharp In Region 3, wbhIhIncluded Ylngdhuan Plain In Nlgda Povince and -129- ANNEX

igure 3: COFc r o VAR n Or FLOWS

0.6

0.?

0.I

0.5

0.4-

0.9

0.2

0.1 J1 sp IV in Mr W ati AUg Oct Doc Fab Ar Juno a Lonyanoxis + Lanzhou *Hulcuznw a Wel-tlon-yIia lo X HUDyMMWOU V Lijin

HomonPlWai in Inner Mongolia,comes ainly from canal seepag and lrr4gadonwate Iflmtraton Mmsof it Is eploitableresorce andcan be reusedfor agricultur.If th total rechargto groundwatmhinus dha par of thecommon. resource InhM oWos a is WuWingmmvawneurem he eMlbNo Swmb resourcewil be67.39 x10' mnashown in th numberIn btacketsfIn Tabe 7. In Regonm4, the goawwresource ek-stbnateby MGM include *thedechrgin the are of MawwsuDesert, mos of whikhbeongs to the inne basin If thispar is take Intoconsderation dnthYRCC estikmato, the tota expoltblresourceswilbe26.20 x 10' tin, whichls vry closeto*heMGM vau. lithe commonresourcs in thieplain are ar Incudedin gmoundwateresource th exploitble volumein Region5 estimatedby the YRCCwill becomie43.71 x 10' en. After thes the subtota for exploitablegroundwater resources in regionsupstem of assdmedby YRCCwil be 143.36x 10' in, whichdoes not differby much fromnthe mows estimatefor 156.0x101'me'. 34. In Regloi7, doHm uayuankou,the are calculatedby the 'YRCCis Himitedby theflood plains Insid theouter dykes of theYellow Rive chanel, whichis much lessthan the actua are Wrigatedby YellowRive wate. Hence,the exploitble reource of 10.37 10' ineare less tha thos estmimtedby theRenam and Shandong provincia bureaus of vatwrconsarvancywhichis 47.64 x10'nilnd byMGM30.22 x10' m?. In lSghtoftdisthe -130- ANNuhJ

Rgue 4: MONHIY FUW MM LOGANGUA 8.0 7D 7.0 53i60 |

figre gimedo las colum InTable 7 arereomeddas exploitablegroundwate resourc flr ik YellowRim verhstaien planningstudy. Table 8 giem the valuesof expectd Si0oresources a by majo subregons. D. RLooos

35. GeramL Stnceancien timies, the Yellow Rtiver has contines to breakfthroug it mai ndie duringlarg floods,floodinig the plains in 700to 1.000km of thelower reches. in put 150yeaw, ther havebeen thre flocAstha havebroached the main dikes. Mmlargest occurre in 1843,when the peak Odishag was estmated to be 33,000rd/s at Huayuanou the pointwher dkemain rive dikesstart Themasin dike broke nea KOOtngan a cit apta city,anud dhe Yellow River estabihe a newcourse along Its IIPresentroute. in the floodof 1933,te maindikes brdok in 54 locations.Te otal floodedare was11,000 km'; 3.6million peoplewere flooded and 18,000died. Twoyears late in 1935,a relatiey smallflood, the -131- ARM I

1Jg. 5.: MONR Y 1 WrON HUAYUANIOU @cimonth) 24

16 i k | a , pop12donpeople-3m _

8 l |; : .; ..- . :~E*

36. Sim 1935tre haveben no accidentalbrea s of themain die, but the wasa 4duilbertobreach of thedike near Kaeag In 1938In an at.emptto stopthe advancing Japnes amy. Allnatura flooddisasters were dwarfed by a wmanmdeflood In Jam 1938. As a resul of & breachesthe wate sweptpassed 44 countiesduring the following nine years, 1.3mon hecm of cjplad andleavg . 12.5mMi peoplehom,els. s YellowRiver Blowed outt to the se durin theneyears via the HuaiRiver into the Yangiz cstuary.Somes 890,000 people wen eit e drownedor diedof hungeror . Tn.Tn bIon tr o sl we caniedout to th plains, rminga 54,000km wsit-overdom a atod notbe u9edfor gowingcrp. s YelowRir ch eof coursecmsed a blanmunt of Yto be dtewd thHao Rivers dal ande reduce the cdhn capacty. -132- 1

Table7: Aveg Expltable GroundwaterReuc In Yellowlive Bade (Ifm'

Uplottable lecommnded amag8timate Mwploitable splottabl. Region mm00 mm) eTtimate teeourcea

1. Upetm Loa6a.ia 0.00 _ - 2. I.asna3da-LauZbou 0.00 3.82 3.82 vastre=nEauao 3. LZauShou-ekiouaha 21.97 (67.39) fA 34.5 54.75 4. Ekeush.-tongm. 10.70 (26.20) 25.49 25.69 S. lcn8 n-Sasnzia 26.85(43.?1) 46.32 $5.01 6. Saumeazia-sawuaSk64.06 (G.0) 6.0B 6.08 Subtotal 6.58 {14|.36 156.66 145.2S

7. luayuakoaBlvr ouzt 10.37(47.64) 30.22 47.64 JaL5. 191 186.88 192.99

I& Numbrsin pI hicat valumadjutd for ovrap of waer ur Indicated.

37. he lage floodta occurredreoeny was in 1958when the floodpea measurdat Huayuakouwas 22,300 m'Is. his estimatdby YRCCto be abouta 1 in 40 yew freqey. Ie mainde helddtig thisflood event, but there was serio floodigof he plainsbwen thoman dikes. Theflood detenon bas at lowerreach poit at Beijindi ad Dongpib u wea establishedsoon after this, in 1960.Since th thelargest flood occurred is 1982,when d peakflow at Huaawu wouldhave been 15,800 m&s, but was 14,000 mls becauseof floodreguato by Snmuia dam T food wasestmated by theYflow River Consevay Commissionto be a 1 In 10 yearpeak fio. The 1982flood caused extesive floodingof thef i betwoeeho ma dikes.it flooded65 pecet of thepla are nd damad or dotoyed thehomes of 400,000people In the floodpa. Attemptsto cotr the 1982 flood also reqed the deiberat floodingof the orih (old) pat of the Dongpinghu deteton basin,which contains 100 kin of tateland anda populton of 1",O00peple. Hower, mostof thdie in ths deenon basinara (97pacen) livein elvatedviles whicha bovethe deg floodlevel, so damag tDhousing and poperty in thisdeteto basinwa low. 38. FChaa tsi of the Beasn The floodseson alongthe YellowRiver i frm Juneto Octbe. lbere ae fth majorflood-producing ar witin the Yelow RiverBasn Te fis ar i t watd bewee Hekouzhenand Logmen Thi loess-vred pl is crisrossed by numerousgullies. Rtists m ofe shortbut hanse, resut in rapidlyriing hydographswith lae floodpeaks accompanioed by high sedim c .- 1,oIII, l he seoondmjor flood-productigarea is e waeshd betwee Longmanand S_ane4 compdrsinsuch tutari as theJinhe, Louhe, Weft andFenhe rives. Raihfll andrnff chr ics aresimir oth*o of th firstarea t hash ed thatflows from -133 - I

Table8: ENA GRouwAT Rouaie SuN9GWNS

Regions Subregions Area Eploitable g.w (10 ImD) resources (100.')

2 XiningBasin 0.12 3.82

yiuan Plain 0.29 8.31 Weining Plain 0.08 3.94

3 YinbeiPlain 0.29 8.31 suotao Pl.ai 1.39 23.91 KtubuqiDesert 1.70 7.39 Noohot-BaotouBasin 0.60 2.88 maowusuDesert 3.22 21.29

4 WesternSh8ani 1.20 3.34 Billyarea LuliangShan 0.52 5.91 Mountaius area Guan,.hongPlain 1.69 33.16 Linfen-YunchangBasin 1.09 12.36

5 TaiyuanBasin 0.61 9.33 Zifeg Plateau 0.25 1.55 Luiohuan Plateau 0.05 0.33

6 Lingbao-Ssrt.sxi 0.05 0.81 YiluoqinBasin 0.1S 3.23

7 lena, 0.8 16.32 Shandoug 2.56 31.32

both ae areasbave combd to prod ex lylarge floods. Mmexstg Sanmea rvoi andthe proposed Xlaolaugdl resvoir are te to contDothen floods.

39. Mheother major flood producing aea b the w_tshd bewen Samea dam andHuayuanwu hydrmtric staion. Rall patten ar variable andar of varig -134- ANBn I

Itsies. Beue of th reladvdyshort of the uties, fect ar ery dsL Theexistisg uxan ad Luhunraevors u sntdod to conol thesefloods. At Xiaolangdlad Huayuankou,there ha beenno recorded cnur of majorfloods from the flood-producingareas upstam anddownream of Samnenxia.The YRCCconvened a meetingof someprominent hydmologis to amin the YRCCasumpion hatsve instm cann occur yin theupsteam Huanh cacbmenbwe Sanmmax andHuaquak andthe cachmt upteam of Sanmexia. MIesespecis confrmedths

40. The rnoff fromupstream of Lazhou produceshyd ah hafig l volumesbut redvdy lowdi gesand hence form th bae flowfor thedownstream flood hydroa. Dueto t y or low tainfll, the otherpar of dw YellowRiver Basin producemuch flatter and smaller runoff hydrographs ad hencedo notrresent a floodtea 41. FloodD hpeDat. Iheare a numberof hydmetri stadonIn the bashL Thelonget operting sion is at Sanmeuxia,which has nealy 60 yeas of recordddiscs. Theremaining stations have a imaty half he mnmberof yearsof recordeddatL Wbere approate, adjustmentshave been made to the reorded datato removothe dects of the oeaton of existingprojects d o ac forloss of waterdue to dikeWbreak aog heYhe andLuohe rivers. 42. Resear of ancet documentsand ardheologi sie Inified majorfloods on the YdlowRiver and som of Is tibaies In theyes 223, 1,482,1,761, and 1,U43.Ihe dsriptionsIn hes documentsenabled an estimatoto be madeof peakdcarges andin some casesflood magudes. From the documents;and to a lser et fom h archeologica evidence,theual retupeodofa floodwasemated. Tbesefloodshavboee ignd reu periodsof 1:1,767,1:500, 1:430 and 1:1,000, respecty. Thefrequency calculations for flowat Smei areshown in Table9. The flowvalue of a oncein, bundredyear about24,500 mn/sec while for a once s thousandyear i about35,000 melsc andfor a ten tosd frequencythe estimatedflows is 45,000m&/sec. Ihe probablemaximum flood at S_8 is eimated at 51,000mo/sec. 43. Esing 1lodw Protectonand Plamed I Povm. R i fortunte St sious floon alongtelower reahs of tlheYellow Rier hasboew avoided in recentdecads, but tie isk of verylarg floodswll alway exst andfood controlmoares mus beplnnd andconucted boe the floodsari. Floodcontol alongthe Ydlow River is provied toug a combin of embankmentdies, sa reservoirs,and detention baa. 44. Themain die ao th lowerreach of theYellow Riv extendfrom Menojin for a distn of 720km to the a. Thes dies hav beenrised manytmes overthepa 150 yes orderto controlthe river bd, whichi continosyring dueto sedime tht i ben depositedat anavea te of abou10 cm/yr. hsh resuttedin maindi whichare now 8 to 9 mtrs highalong most reaches, wih a maxmumheigh of 13 metersIn someplaces. Themain dikes must be rised by about1 m everydecade to keeppace wih thering riverbed.

45. I veral age reservoirs aVe ao been constrcted In rce yes icuding the l Sm sprojec and resvim on sm truies, suhi a the Luho and Guxian Details res below: -135-hN.

Table 9: JAUQUENCYCALCUIATION FMl PZAX DISCRARG AND 111WM VOLWM AT? SANM HY IC STAIN

Date of Item Calc- Statutiecal oeWnatta Is . ltn 1 aa, a mmIst C,ICa 0.1 1.0

Pek di8achaz 19U5 1,000 4 1 8,582 0.s5 4 ",200 35,500 24900 1991 1,000 71 1 8,o80 0.52 4 "4,920 4,580 24,170 .day zuaoff -oe 1985 60 21.5 0.45 4 9.45 7.40 5.55 1991 67 21.4 0.45 4 9.42 7.57 5.51 12-day runoff Volume 1985 60 43.3 0.4 S 15.41 12.5 9.80 1991 67 43.2 0.4 3 15.4 12." 9.74 45-day znoff volus 1985 60 125 0.35 2 35.74 30.51 25.01 1991 67 125 0.35 2 35.57 30.4 24.85

LS N = .tited zetuz perlc4 of lszest bletorte or osril. 4 aa legth of the reorded perid a ; uar of historlcal flojd men momepak discharg In3 or usesn soff Volums In 10/us C, * coefficiet of varlatie C, coefficiet of ekeues

HRoodStorB (M( X 10O R1yok Rh- snmmda Ydlow 1960 3,000 Tahun Ylho 1965 240 Cuxdan Loh I992 480 46. If the combt of diles and soa reevoin ableto ontofo dung lage floodsta t tendie maindikes, then a ls rsor e MMflows WIl be diertd bto a lag dettoa bain, In orderto avoidthe drsk of ncotroled f1ooding.w4 h coudbe muh mor dis. Ihe szes of dths basn aresuIind bWow: Ara m2)

(m3 x 1iG Beindi 2,316 2,060 Donpinghu 627 2,6S0 BdIjan 100 390 NaiVan 123 330 47. Ihes detton bains wer a low-co solu 30 Yrso, whoe ads fbr dam coastction In Chinawer vy lmited. How, overte pat decadestee has been -136 A

-ubMstaeconomwth Inthe rua eonomiesof thm detenionbasis, andflood damage In thesoarms willbe vey g If the basinsever hve to be usedfor floodcontrol. The economiesIn thes aas willconte to gw Inthe fue, andi wti becomemore and more costlyto use largedento basis for floodcontol. 48. Floodcontrol planng forthe futur s contnuedvin andconued Improv_mentsin the level of ontrol.Clearly, tho main dks have be raisd peiodicallyjus to mantanthe sam levelof floodcontol However,the total level of floodcontol protecton s d alsobe incased in ftr yes for sevea reasos. Asthe economyin al sectorsin Chinacontinue to groweah yen, thepotent flooddamag thatwould resut froma larp food wilals continueto case eh year,and the optimum level of floodpetion at can be econoucly justfied,and that is affo le by e increasly trongChinese eonomy, willconDtinuo I e In fitremyeas. t is alsocea tha sm of thesolutions innded fo floodcontrol in the pas, suchas the use of lar Ihabiteddetention basins, will become prohibitdvelyepsv as thedamage resulting from the use of sucha detion basinica overtim. ue floodcontol willtherefore have to relymore on continuedstrengthening of thedikes, and an th costuctionof lre reservoirsand dams, such as Xiaolan withlag floodcontrol ore caaciy. 49. lhe proposedXaolad projectis a part of tis planfor Impovingflood contol In the lower reachof the YellowRver. Ihe Iongd projectwould pwri 4.1 blLonmW of soragecapay for floodconol. Thiswill ubally reduceth risk of floodingIn thedetnton bas, Inthe floodplain are, andIn themajor procted areasbehnd the maindikes. Thedam wi not completelyeln the risk of floodingalong the lower YellowRiver, and codtued ateo to sngthening the dikesand other flood onol measureswill also be required,but it willcontribute significandy to the overal levelof flood controlta canbe ahievedalong the lower Yellow River. 50. ood Damap Poteal in DiffereintAreas. Theprinia areast would benefitfrm floodcontrol offered by theXolaogdl proJect ar theflood plains along the lower YellowRiver, the Dongpihu andBeijidi flood deteto basins,and th majorarea prote by the ma dks of the YellowRiver. Thesizes of theseprncpal procd are ar below: Total Cultivaed Amo Amo Araonad W)o~(I 109) Floodpzi 3,544 2,228 1.47 Detentionbasins Dongplnghu 627 352 0.27 Belfindi 2,316 1,S60 1.44 Bejan 106 59 0.01 Najan 123 68 0 Protctedby maindikes 125,000 100.00

51. Dr Wlodg fromIe Jam. Apartfrom the summer floods, here are als posibi of floodsfrom ice Jams. Afterpasing Luokou,the mainstem of the -137- ANE I

YellowRiver Wks a tm to the northeast ereIs a gainof 3 Ii latitud whenthoe r reachesthe Bohb Sea. According to stati of h past3S yeas, he probabiltyof freozup in thelower achIs 86 pecet Th mophologyof theriver b such *t dhcaMd a wido and shallowupsteam and narow and mandaing downsem. The differencm Inldtud ad width, as well as the vation of discge, contribe to the complexityof ice regim and floodingon the lowerreaches of theYellow River. 52. In wintwert n e, on average,30 days with a meandaily air teW ow zerofor the rach justupstream of k and48 days for the reac a Jirm (CalLin, 1989). n the esuy xone,tie air Ispamaeb belowzero for more hn 74 days. The long-term meandaiy air tempea at BelzhegIs 3.3tC lowerthan that in Zhengzbou.The difference maybe stilllger in someIndividual yes. For instace,in mid-Jany 19S7,the 10ay men air t at ji, closeto the BohaiSea, was 7.40C lower m to Zhephou, andon Januy 18, it ws 15.20Clowr. Afte mid-December,a slrong cold wave often prevals, whichcauses the rir chand to fieeze.Ihe freep dateIn theHenan reah Isgeneaally In ealy Jnuary, whers free-upin the estuaryzone C the reachbelow Luokou In Shaong Prvnc) Isin midor lateDecember. Becuse of thedifference In Inteiy of coldair cu ts, thefreeup date,the lenogthof the rivercane underice cover, and the Icevolume in the riverchanmel differ greatly. Ihe eariestfreez-up date ever recorded was December 12, the lat February17. Theshortest secdton dth mayfreeze is only40 km,but thelongest may be mm than 700 km. The mini_mu volume of Ice In te riv chnnel Is only several hundred thousani, but tte maximmvolum mayreach 140 million mJ. Thebreak-up date in th Henamrach is generalyin lae January,and In theShandong reach it maybe in lateFbruary or eary March.lbhikns of iheIce cover also vaies ftom0.1 m in theHe reachto 0.3- 0.Sin in the esuy. 53. Accordin*to bisocal recordsbetweea 1883 and 1936,there we 21 yes whendibes have breached during the Ice-flood pedod. In 1951and 1955, the Icedams causn breaes in IjinCounty (Shandog Prvic). Muchland and mayvilges at Zhhua, ljin andKenli wren flooded during his dir. 54. In smmay, theXaolandi pect wSlgreaftlyee thedri of floodig and expectedflood dmage in thelower reahes of theYelow River. t willnot eimina suchrsk compleely,but it willreduce Ature, damage in thefloodplain area by 24 to 33 peen; in the detenon bas it will reducefut damageby abou 90 percen,and in thoeenive aras protectdby themain dikes, it wi almostcompletely reduce damag due to toppingof th dikes. The reduconsin epected flooddamage apply to damap causedby overtoppingof the dikes,and they assumethat the dikeswill cotime to be raisedto keepup wih the n of thferiver chanmel. Continued _ andstrengthenIg of thedikes also reuIre to provet undmining andother tp of faiures. tww *1 _ Ie III,F fi[l Ru.rEq *iFI Iii I'4ff 4111u luillit a.141 Id £ B '1liiiU.. IriF U j w a1' iih iIi hi.' A 1i' 2 a I.hItg

'4 IRIK a g. 'P Ii I - 139- ANNE2

Tabl 1: ANNAL RVMW AN SzUMT LOAD INTMD AM (9S-79 AVmRAanE)

DraiDage Runoff (bln '!) Suspended eedUent Annual Arez Annual Flood Annual Flood edminemt station (000 l.2) season season (Z)

Guido 133.7 21.2 12.8 0.024 0.019 1.6 Lawhou 222.6 32.2 18.8 0.095 0.092 6.5 Qlngtongai 275.0 27.4 16.1 0.153 0.125 10.5 Hekousen 386.0 24.6 14.4 0.151 0.115 10.4 Lonagne 497.0 31.1 18.0 1.040 0.938 71.2 Tougguan 682.1 41.1 27.8 1.460 1.250 100.0 Samenziaa 688.4 41.1 23.4 1.420 1.200 97.2 Gaocun 734.1 43.6 25.5 1.210 0.964 82.8 L1jin 751.9 41.7 25.2 1.080 0.898 74.0

Source:ILog Yuqlan nd Qin Niug, 'Eri ad Transportationof Sedint inthe Yelow River BEain"Ienaark Joewxtf Sedimet Researh Vol.1, No.1, 1986.

(c) Sources wit low sedimentyields: thereaches above Hekouhen theetibuies originatin from Qinlng Mountainin Wed valley;Ylluohe River and Qinhe Riv.

S. Ike annualsedhMen yid frm 24 riutariesindo mie rach totalabout 94 pece of the sedim_etload observedat S I he c_nt area of the 24 tbutarisonly onributs 43.6 peretof thetotal a at Sanmenida. Solerosion I most seros overh gaed aa wher thesoil erosion modulus has bo over10,000 to/km 2. TAbl 1 iustesthe dispaty ofthe flow of wtr andseint fromupper to klwrpat of th

6. Inotder to sudy thegogracl dbution ofthe source and origin of sediment_static haveboe obsead fm 1950-74for svera osandstation yes In diffm seq0en0woand ho resula shownIn Table2.

(a) The longerm averp of th anual sedimet reaching the Yellow River betwe 1950-74i about1.6 billiontons per yea. Mmorrecet m _ in ho 1980s Idca that te seimet reai tho YellowRiver Is about 1.35 bilon per yea. Yieldof sedimet frm h as aboveHekoazen for 1950-74Amws comprss ondy 9 prce of the edtirebasin Th prinl sedimntyield zones r thec_atmn of thereach of themain rir bwe Helouzen,and LniSen and the dria tbuties in Yulin and Yaa PrfectureS,WehO, FhOe,Lou with a total area of 266,000k which Otgx"90 7 pc (1,530millionts) oftesediment Of the 1.6 milion 43 pct C 30milio tons) is coa sedimente coar sedimetrefers to sedime to withme par"ticleabove 0.05 mm. Above -140- MAb 2

Tabb 2: SumwurrSouac ANDSiza DwnuN

z) te~SM) $naISY) g$=O2U"u)

8uga9"1 £148 a as 9 1446 15s310 Is I1" a I" * 134 O to 1S a

IWbtl~I94.948 154 S1-7 t15411S S is 17S" 14 6483 SO1 U § 9 1 4550 to 4432 409 So 93 301 1 SIMS 70 4 4U 3 a it a O I Cai 721S0 1$U 14 94 1. " go 191"lb "*140aa IISa> * m> a * LMo"0 lZ in11is it*7 inau6 eue coarse sedt4 so 44a s .4 a 9 a pr t ld_Vo the el dm d z Ao th AU ag 1n GusA 1~~~~~~~~s a -7 -0 -41 I -6 -10

o7~Twe,h ,Wdn g,Qnglxan,Yn Houge Q1shl, Sanmn Hnh eo and ah tiutar bains I"nth iddlereah etee Heoue an HI4I _oe adil OW MMfr 5.4 pac A 90 petM of' the emu sedie_ is derived ftom tfie Kuys, Hagimn,Gudlu, Tbwd,Jlah Wudbg,Qbindan Yabe, Honghe,Qhshui, San Hunhe od Yanhs tributar basinsI 1he middefi teb bwme Hehouze sad

(b) It wil als be noticedtha abou95 percenof the dh is derivedfrom the middlerach fromHdez itothe conflue of the Weiriver andof this abot 60 pece com fm n ae appoximatelyabout 110,00km 2 (Yanan andYulln Precum nd NW Sham countes). Ihe sedimenteosion modulus forth Yan (47,000km?)and Yuln (35,000km Prefectureseeds 20,000 lks pw ImO. Theseam ofc fncommediyitddamealIn thegule rollnglous regoos. It is worthmentioning that the most sedimentse yieldb confinedto a smal porti of the entirebain. B. EROSMIAM SEDrM YInw

7. 1011 In Lie Ara. Mostof the seimn loadscarried by the surfac mof originatefrom the tixutes th dicag to therach frim Hdewuzento LOugm in th gorgesbetwe Shani and ShaaxL Tis7 is an area classifiedpredo n as tie uMed-h loessreofn Thearea i overedby Man boess,which s veryloose In struct withalmost vea jointplan. MTland surac ha beencut down by a crsso of gullies Into smallwatersheds varyin slm fom fewto a hundredsque komets. B. Ibe intgy am has In geral beencultivated and the slopeof the lad sure vaies fom 10tD 3. Igullyhe aa, composedof uly bed andgully slopes, is quite In terrain.IThereare steep cift withdopes wel over60, steepwasteand with dopesof 40 to 60 anddao somecultivated d withsopes van fom 25 to 35. - 141-

9. Eosion takesplace on lad lopesas wel a in gulies. Durig a som, above the deacadon Jin of the momndand the gully,tho basictp of eoson cnssts of soil picles detachedby the Impactof ran ps and, In sheeterion, by ovrnd flowswith numerousns and fArows. Somemes e land may si as water s thwogh so in tho crack whIchIn tur maypromote the developmeof gullies. 10. Gaiona erosion,palary on the guly sopes, makesan import contribion to sog loss. In tis aremthero are about4.5-6 km of gules per squa kilome of land. Duringrainstorms, wipread gavitainl osion Inthe formof slidg, ad dumpingland, falling debris, subsidec and at ofgullyheads may be foundovr momrthan 100,000k. In addion, wherig of exposedsufces by Zfeig ad thawing,etc., breas downlarge amount of loosematil that iBcaied awayby the srfaoe noff. 11. Od smalwmdsan indefkeldrdveathatdung a stormrunoff pre, overlandflow already has a fairlyhigh sedimsen conce treaton-rching as muchas 500 kglm3-evenbefore nls and furrw as formed. Whflethe surfc ruooff coneontrategradually in rillsand ows, te sed onnaio maybe fther incresed by 30percen as ault of the incre in di and the erodibiy of the soil. Gravitata erosionon gullyd not onlysuplies abudantmateri to be readilycariet awayby urfce unioffbut so frishes additionalcoase matials, suchas weatheredrock fragments,furt to the floW,inceasig the edimentload of the flow. m sediment conentrton at t footof a guly slopecodd reach nealy 1,000kgm. Onthe basis of th dataobaied at Zh Exprmenta Stationin t years1963-66, if sdiment obtned at a cumulativefiequency of 10perce of the time is tak a e lI concentrtonfor coarison, then the vaion of the limitingsediment conc on In dffent partsof thebasin i differ andvaries from 900 kglmeto 1,200kgIm&.l 12. k hasbeen f ta the erosionmoduus in guieis higherta t of the soing surfa or ta of the ilnguy area. Sedimet contibutedby gulies vades aproimtey 06 perntJ 13. Sol L_ and SedimutDdivey to Uiver.When soil paides getdiodged, they are cared by overand flow Into rMs and gullies,by chne flow t trbutarid and theeafterto the river. The wil be considerabledffe beee theto quantityof soil erodedin a catcunentand th sedient t ultatly reaes theriver. The aio of the soi erodedin a cacent to the amot tat fially raches the river knownas the sedimnt delvey ratio. Theseient deliveryratio can be as highas 1.3for smal ctne andis in genea abou 0.8 to 0.911 or evenless for larg cmen Thiswould men tat if 1 ton of silt reahes the river, there mustbe about 1.1 to 1.25 tos of soil tat are rod and depositedin tie seambed. Hence,if thsedient delieredto t rvers is 1.6bmiion ryear, thes erosionin thecatchent cod be as highas 1.8to 2.0 billonmyear. C. VAUAIONiN SuNMNr FLOW

14. Annua Viation. St caldata on YellowRiver sediment ae verycomlet betwee 1949and 1979fr the lowerreach s-ton-Huyuankwu and ohrs downstream.

/ sIngYIntawd QiswNilg Seiadh Rd Vof StmS1 nTle .Ydl Rivr 1118inteJo OfS_P_w $M% Ahwut19S6, TdX 9. - 142-ANN

Altoug thesedimet flow dun thi pwod I 1.3b 3ionulye toe anna vaiatin anbe m 0.3 bilion tl/yea 1.1961 to 2.9 billionm'year in1958. here a to be almosttre- yearcycles of sedime flowpeal, ben 1.5 nd 2.9 bmionmeyo, withtU s of 0X bili mW/year (se figue 1). I etmate sdimen flowbte 1919and 1959, hwow, is 1.6bionm /yearat Shabr-_ana Sanmenudadam. Thi stationwa discontud in 1959 afterth S_ damwas bui Mmma imumreorded sedim lod at thi sWto w In 1933when it reached3.91 biion tons,while the lowes was I 1982-ony 0.488biion to at Hqayuankou(130km dowe_h), theratio beingght to oun The t of_tseimt flowsforthe two s are verydmilar(see F 2). lh oeict oaf ace forssdm flowfrom yea to yearIs about50 pecent,which is vy hig. Hower, whenviwed as a 10 r aveage,the vaabiity notvery hig, as shownIn Tab1 3; i aso nicathatdu not depndenton the amountof flow. Table3: SeImat F.w at _Uaas, M9084

^dtomt load Blowi o all year (10' tonelyear) p.r year

1920-29 1.19 38.40 1930-39 1.76 48.73 1940-49 1.71 54.02 1950-59 1.76 52.26 1960-69 1.70 S8.86 1970-79 1.34 50.00 1980-85 0.93 n.a.

I4 Mostreemen showthat sedimet load ar about1.3S bIllion tos.

IS. Th highaual vaiabliy ocus becas of th high unff varidat wit theyar ad thelation of therunoff. About 60 percentofte annualuwff ocs durn th flood sow fom July to Octobe. In some tributaries, the of runof If flood seas Is more . For,nstance th avage runoffIn flood8s0sous fom 1954 to197at wasu72 percet ofthe t talannual ranoffX and in1972 th tot amount of wae caried by a sge floodmight h beenas mch as 69 pct of theannul wooff. Th coefficientof varinceof the annual off i 0.22-02, ad h rado of m"m to minium annual runoff I In the rnge of 3-4. 16. Seasonl Vadria I SdIhmentFows Sasona vaiaion in sedimn_tflw aysi d t Almt 85 perceat of all he sedmt flow occus Inth we sea b Julyad St er. Only 15pen of the sedim flowocu in th dry seasonfro Octoberto Jua Dring t dryson, m= stof thesedimt fow rut fom of sedime readyIn th ver chan (se Figur 3). Sdim lo andwaet floware in som waysrete tDoea flowsbut not ecey alwas. Gealy, higr wr low kfrm the iddle rach men highe sedimn loads. However, hige wa fo maurd In tdowe eanaccold rnsut fm eitr hgher fwin the upper read or highewA n t - 143 -ANN&2

lgure1: SU r FLOwS-LOWMREACH (1952-79)

as _ _ _*-4-- _-

2.4 _

; 1.'@f_UEJi±' - 1\ -1 07t _ - If ei _ I

0.2 ------0.6 0.2uI &iI I 'II ~~~r ~1MO10 G40.0 A0SMi9. ,g97.0 Lvgao :+ il1Zta 0se sado X LUCOU V LIJ In a *

lowo middlereach, whic does wotalwas produc sedimen Hene it is onlywhen hier *1W otigiat ftmn the middle reacdt sedim load are high. 17. Spal Varit Iher is a dfferec in the sedim oon on rom ar withfin sedimt (thoWe Plai, Rio SB)and tho wit cars sediment(RegIo 4). Outo244 sms in Rgion4, wheremost of thecoam sedimentoriginates, 107 had sediet #AM , I,it v exceedig1,000 kghn. In thefine sediment areas, while the conceaion of sedim_ can each about 1,000 kIWm, In cases k Is les ta this.

18. Flows. Sedmet nows W well over 300 tD 400 kg n can occur in t ower reaches. Flows wih such c aon are rerred to as hy__i I mm- I Thq ae formdby ve hIne storms,in he middlereach (Regio 4) and Inih WeiRime Bi (Reon SB). efoo are chaterkid by high,short peak ar short duai Afterjoining gth mainstoe, the sorm water usuallyhas a peakdisge of 4,000 to 8,000 '/sec; afr trveig down the main reach trough Samenia dam to 2,000 to 3,000m'/sec.

19.. Th hypeco edflows bve lke homogneousliquid, with a densityand vicodty muchhigr a ose of cled wator. ITe flowis non-Newtonian(such as a memory fid e eg yoW, unlikeflow of water,which I Newtoian Whenhyperconcenrated flows of th tiutaes reac themain stem, dy we combindwith the clearerwater from upom of Rdoen. Th A gradientof th mainstem separtes the coase partddesfrom the - 144- AliL2

Ilgwe 2s ANNUALSU3N TROW HWOGa

24.005 _ _

198.005

10.00 - - - - -

4.00%2.005 0.005 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0o .5 4.0

Sadimant Flow tn bclyeW g 1919-1959 1949-1979 flow. Asmuch as 20-30pet of thecoarse sedimet is de d ad therting flowIs but withmuch lower conerI 20. Tbellportantplt ab 'Ihyp_ flowsis " a ou of sedmt are depoitd in t lowerreahes whenthese flows occur. From1950 to 1983, tberowerllt fos1n the river, hy conibutedt 2 percentof the nff and14 pere of thtotal sedimentloads. However, 54 percentof thesedent depostionthat tookplac Inthe lower reach In this piod tookplac duringthes 11 stom (seeTable 4). D. Sed_ient DepositionIn the LowerReach 21. nhelower reac stas fom Menjingand goes to allthe way to themouth of the riverbeyond Ljin City(see Map 1 of tex) for About800 kaL Bet 602 B.C. ar 185S A.D. the river sfed is cours In de lower reach about 26 tdmes. lb cours has vad quite wldy-it hase dd as *r tho northas hjij Cityand as far to hd sou, viathe Huai liver, to the Ysnsz River-a distn of 1,500km ft*mthe fIurthstnorth outle to th sothernmostoutlet In addI on,the present lowe reac sectioswere frmd duringdiffeet hiso perods. Thmseco fromMengilg to the couene of the Qne Riverhas been In exisen for Ih_ of yea. TM sectionfom th outletof the QinheRie to Dongbaou,in Hem Provi, i SO yeas old. Ihe seo frm D engbtto Taodegu wasfor on thefloodplain when a dike,was bndied at Tongwalng in 1SS. Theseti fom Taochenputo theesary wasfrmed aftr theYellow Rivet changed its coure In 18S - 145- 2

mgui'e3: S9EmM Rwws-wun RzA&c(1952-79)

4.5-

* ~~a

c 2.5- 1 ~~~2- U.

0.7

ianuary jkrCh May JulY aSpteinoer NovencFr Febuary Ap-t I June August October Deceuber month a lijln + LotJcou O Sunlcou a Gaocun X Jlahsttn V Huey nd folowedthe Dawene (Daftn River);it hasflowed In this course for more than 130 yeams. 22. It s diffiaclto describ the eosion andsen of the lowerreach in earaerpeiods sinc therewere no sy c uveysof theprocees andnO detad records of thept Estiaes arebased on qualitativerecords of theancient dest . In addidon, becauoof frequentdik beachesad dsftig of the tivercourse, a greatamount of sediment carredout of thedi. However,mmore peso data s availablestarg in themidde part of the centy.

if Dur4o UweO Five Docade 23. Mh gerd aspe of erosn and depoo an h lower reas ar pnipaly demined by the nmoffand sediment load conditions. In a wetye wilha lae sedimentlod, depos In tldower reachs lar. Foretomple, the flood peak dichage at Sbaanan (I.e.,present S_ wa) up to 22,000 /s in 1958,and the max3mum measured sedimet conceation was519 kWm'.In the rech fromMengi b Gaocun,Ihe lewd of the floodpla tos 1 to 1.5 m as a rest of the 2,200million ton of sedimetthat deposit alftoughthe main chael wasscoured by 500millon tons and the whole reach had dqpo of 1,700miion tOS. Figure4 showsthe vaiaton In dqeson of sdimt the lowe reach frm Huuaou betwe 1949and 1979. Excudingthe pue whenthe Samenxa dam tped almostall the sedint @etwe 1961and 1964). In 1950/51le amounsof _t wer depos -up to 0.9-1.0billon tons/year. Thi wasfollowed by a perliod(1952-56) of -146 2

Table4: Hype ncentate Flo-DepoDiton of SedimentIn LAw Reachs

ateoof/ nma. Avg. Qua: Sto*= SSdflst Sdiusmt *epo.lttoa otsrt of COD4. Com. c=W duratloa Rsaofc 1ew d4p" t1s ixnteossy atom (Ikg/m')ks/rn) (bli ) (bli tons) (bl tons) MiL.t/daq

18-Aug-53 716.0 136.0 6,790.0 7.0 1.96 0.35 0.23 26.0 26-Aug-53 412.0 128.6 8,410.0 7.0 2.10 0.35 0.1S 18.80 02-Sep-53 590.0 1U5.7 12,300.0 7.0 4.7 0.84 0.49 61.00 23-Jul-56 444.0 116.9 6,500.0 6.0 2.06 0.31 0.21 30.00 06-Aug-59 397.0 151.3 7,660.0 6.0 2.70 0.53 0.27 33.20 2S-Jul-69 435.0 164.9 4,500.0 11.0 2.16 0.46 0.34 27.86 04-Aug-70 620.0 242.8 4,040.0 13.0 2.63 0.83 0.55 39.70 25-Jul-71 666.0 175.9 5,040.0 5.0 1.08 0.25 0.20 33.30 28-Aug-73 477.0 179.6 5,890.0 10.0 3.17 0.74 0.30 26.26 04-Jul-77 589.0 178.8 8,100.0 11.0 3.45 0.60 0.45 37.80 03-Aug-77 911.0 220.8 10,800.0 9.0 3.09 0.89 0.58 50.20

Total (avg) (568.8) (166.5) (7,277.3) (8.4) 29.17 6.35 3.77 35.17

Total gagou July 1950-Juae 1983 10,482.0 4.20 6.99 Percentag produced by floods 2.0X 13.7X 54.02

Soui Zhao Yean, Pan Xan, Pa Zuoyig and Hl Sho "ots, in the Low Rcs of th Yow River and its Ba Lawse Toning U Yrelow im Si cd FlAods, Kmew Aodemr Publhm, 18. vey low sedimentdeposi-blow 0.25 bili tonslyea-and then a periodof high IedImentationof 60-0.65 bIllion tons per year in1958159. In a dryyr wih a smallsedimt load,the river may erode like In 1955when the river oded250 million tn. 24. If the lowerrach Is dividedInto five stbreadhes-BHuuadkou to Jiabela, Jiahetan to Gaocun,Gaocun to Sunkou,Sumwu to Luokouand Luiu to Li-te Huayuankou-Jiahetansubreach has the lagt average dexslko-70 million tonsyew-followedby the GaocunSunkousubreach, with 60 millio to/ye andSunoon- Luokousubreach, with 50 mIlliontons/year. Ihe Luoou-Ljin subeah has only S million toyear (seeFIgureS). h spaal dbuon of sedne do iss afimet of 8se t transportcapacity of theriver chnel andflood plain deribd in pam 30. 25. Mostof the sdimentIs dosited In the low rades dting the frs two monthsof the wetseason, i.e., Julysad Augst. In the two moths 200 mii ton of sedimentare deposited. In moths flowi bou 30 miion o r ododad redistrbutd. Sedietation coniDuesto occur thoughot the rest of the ysr but in very smal qutes; genealy less tham5 mIlion tDo ae deposd ach month (see F E 0. 26. Becauseof frequet broaes of die from1919 to 1949,the vag annmal depositionwas only 200 mion tos or sobecau a lar amountof sedimetws W ed out of thedikes. From1950 to 1985,the ta depston averaged6,850 miio to, about200 -147 - hIB&

11gw 4:~Suune DM"srno-Low3a RUACH(19507) j *3 a

1.2- a 1.1 - ---

0.9 I °o-,f -- - a --

0~~~. c,0.4

tX ~-0.21i 1000 t1 0 1 .0[ +1.217. _ _

195 I.0 19t9.0 1965.0 1971.0 1977.0 Yer - AnnmulDlP@ition X AVerage1950-60 V 1965-79 maio to= for Oachymar.2

27. Du diefivedeae*s 1934to1985,some9fbinofsdimentwe 4epst on di lowe rade of th Yel Riv. Mi wu estmated by looking at toouabc 3s roeaswecnvertedtowegtbysIngl.4u'. ftenneyas(1938- 47) drIn *wi do couse of di Ydllw Rive wa cbangd at Huayuank, as a rult of deber beacies of*odide by d firm Na _nitgovrnment, I nottakla toacount, dw ava anmualdeoon I 220 mMiontom. A tedny cn be sen for moresedimen to be depot on the middlereaces th on th two ed rods. Tnfact, dqeosio 1 to 1.Smon heuppereach,2. to 3.5m onthmddle, and0.Sf I monthelower.

28. 80_ _ a tn of S 1. In Septbe 1960, reservoirwas completed. t contol 92 perent of o rver basi, 89 percnt of di ruoff ad 98 pern of do simet la for gm lower reach. k cn be see in Figue 7 ta d rservoi heldback dh sdimn betwe 1961to 1964. This ruled In de erods of die owe rac all the way to L S 1tfrm 1964 do opeaio

3f hi vale el difrc bewe dulbosut of suimt loadat theoentac ad at di. exiof doelow usaIIP ha. Urn.bsedimet witdrawn in izrgaiwater. mmearnes tofsdimen atg~ft slsd. os - of tdo edimenload at Samnmaxla,dhat at Hulapguan donthrbtawy Tiles Rv ad dui at Xlsdodg on to tbury Qrhs River. o amount of sedimet load at So mit eiml doesdIme at 14jim. - 148 - AW I2

lge S: AVUAG SOMr D EUoo (4679)

0.07

0.08

0.05

0 ~~0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0 ~W4-JfttJhtt-GoLn GaUn-Sou Scou-ou LkoU- lItJIn

Pech Sectlon n M210 ml I tone total modeof t resevoirwa changedad theflval processesof thelower reahes wasaffected in the fDolwg way: (a) FromNovember 14 to Ocwber973, tbreseromr wasoperaed for flood coto: It detied floodwat andsedimet loads. A partof the sedint depostedwihn theresevoir wa washedout whenit opaed at lowstages, specialy in he sumr month to let the fioodwaters g. herero, flowswt highsmt concenain ofte ocud whent reservoirwa low. his led to seious depositioon the lowerreaches. In act, the tot amoundeposed was 3.95biion tons when the annual vrae sdime infow wa only439 milo tons,which s eveamore ta that in theperiod fom 1950to 1960. Sisy.oe percentof the depositionwas in the main mnel, and 33 pecent asn th floodpln. AlmostaU of the sedimet deposid thomain cha wasIn thereach below Aishnn Stage for the sam dicage generallyro 2 m or so. In somestretches in thereach frm Dougbatot Taohenhag,another rise in theiver bedwas formed within the rver systemcoutolled by the productiondlks.- (b) In 1984,the opating rulesof theSnm rsevoi we haMgedto reduce som of thedowm d _eposiion.T resevoir was to regulateboth water andsdimet by b_ clearwater and sluicing sed water.The reservoirnow mpoud fows durig te nonfloodseaso (fromNovember to * 14 hNtIE&a2

gure 6: Depold0onand Erosion (1949-79)Avwg

4.1 - - -

0.9 ------

*1 ~0.7 - -- - -

0.6 -- - - -

C ~~0.3--

C 0.4- - - - 0~~~. 0.2

j ~~0.2_ _ _ _- - __ _

-0.1

Jan brW My JulI Sop Nov

MDffths

.+ ve depoeft -ve for erosion

June),and sluicessedime duig the flood (fim Julyonly October). The toal flowsare nOtaltered greatly, but tdhese t loadsar muchsmaller. The ann avrage deposton on the lower reahes is only 100 mllon on. Becaue the rrvoir reaslr dwter during soeaooods and th amnal sedimet load is entirelydbpoed of in flood seasons, eosio and de i processoscage quie a lot of the lower reach in the o of a year. misteadof deposition,scour of an sanwuaaverage of 100 millon tons ocrred in the cnel. In floodseason, there I longitdina scour in the upp reachand depoion In the lowerreac.

29. In smmary,it canbeen sbown tat boh theamont of rosdonand depot andtheir distibti dongthe lowerreace varyaccoring to howthe n resevoir is operaed. They are closdy relatedto vaian rInoff nd sedimet load and t the opeatin of the rsrv tht modifiesthe runoffad se entconions forthe lowerreaces. XlaolangdiDam will of courmseave muchmore mactsince it wil havemuch more cpacity to regulate h flowsinthe lowerreace of the dver. -1l0- ANNMB2

Jlgur 7: CUMUIATVKSEDIDT DEero (JUl-79)

4--

i~~~ 5 -0Xt

u ~~1 .0 =04. 1_5. 1970.0= 976.0

195.0 19051.0 198.0 1975.0 197.O

0 HN*ou to Sw*ou 4. Swcou to LlJln

-30. Sedhuen fraept Capacity.t th o e A geea oruata Inicat whter erosoordaeposito occursduring flood flowI s folw:

D_at~or eosoa100million mflw - -25 + 0.075(seIetcn. kgr' It hs beenobsevd tha th vrg sedmn aregneal greatrta 1S0kg/rn' from floods8rgnaigI aeas wih coase08_ln Ihu resut I depsto In thelowe reaches.Inl conast, If th sediet Isoless tha 50 kg/r' dringfloods vay fromSO o 1SOkgr acorig to th prooto of rnff fromth difern so8ce. Floodsfirom two pariular sourcearea (fin siltares theWed Bai andcoars silaeas in thebasi betweenHeoue anldLoume) willlead to depositoninl lower reaches. 31. Mre genral, onanl anal basisthe amun of deposiinper 100million ms of rnxoffis directlyproporinl to theawal wagsdbe coutato in thelowr redes. A fomulathat decrbe theonditios whehr seimn deostnor scou occurs on an ann bas Is:

Dpsiio o zeosion/laOGmillom flow - -1. + 0.06(sdmn cn. kgr) - IS1 - A f thsedim concentrationislow, the d iion In the lower reaches is as low, _ hading to sCour. Inversely,the gre t sedim co n, tho grear th deoin wil be. Ihere is a criticalvlue of about25 kg (moregenerlly bewe 20 and27 kgtr'. If the sedimentconcentdon Is greaterthan ts values,tbe rive cous will undegO deposition;otewiso the wil be scOUr.Apparenly, deposition on thelo reachescan be offectvelydereasd by ieasing the amou of rnoff andreduing sedimnut load.

Water Required to Transpot Sedimt

32. Apat from the depsiton and scwu of seiment lotg Gielower rahes is an additonalissue tha needsto be coidered andthat s thewater needed to fush sedimet out of the dver intothe estuaryand te sa. Between1950 to 1985,tie avrg measuid ruoff was42 blion m/yearand the total sedimet entern the estay hasbeen 1.05 bmi tons/year.Averageo OQnce of seamnt bas been25 I . Th amot of ilt flow vares cierably fromyear t yeai, depening te volumeof flow. In 1954,1958,1964 and 1967 the silt flows have been as high as 2 billIontons per year nd In odwr ys th hv been muchless ta 1 billiontos. 33. Thecoastal region of theYdlow River dda Is20 kmoutside wide the low ide lne. Theflow of siltat Lijin and the finalplaces of depositn ha beenobseved since the 1950g.On an verage,23 pc of thesil dpoits e andabo sa evelpast Ijinin a placecalled Dagu, 44 percendeposits it coas regionof thedeta; and33 pcent of the depsi waeInthe deep sea Ihe deltaisbeingbufltup atthe rat of 34.5km'per year and the rivermouth is beingpunched out at 0.43km per ye. 34. he mountof war requiredto transport100 mMim to of sedi out of Lin in tohlowerreaches is rdeatedto th inomig edimt load. f roff andsmnt load equalthe long-temaverage, about 3 bilionm' of wer ar requiredoto transport100 million tonsof sediimein theflood eas, and9 bMlionn ae neodedin thenofood seaso Tat is to say,more watr is need toDtnxporti sediment in thenonflood asn ta in th food seao. It a in ates t the amount of watr requr for I dends on the sedi8mt load as well as the allowableauwnt of d In the . Tht mem that dffert amountsof flow are neededto copewith varble toleabl m under spfc incomingediment loads. S 85 percentof the f get torted durn the wet s"eao, theamount of wer flowduing ti periodcontrs th sdmet outflow. 35. Figure8 showstie sedimentdihag for diffret flowconditions bet 1950and 1979 at Liji. Tobep thede tn Into lower reaces at cun rats, dte mout of naffat )jin dwhd notbelowssa 16bIonm'Intheeviasosmnd about8 bibonumi duing the dry sson, givn a Wal of 24 bMlIon yeay. TMeflow ca be redced in a dry ye becase th sedimentflow is also generly leo. For a dry yew fows are a 75pecet probabilt, the t loadsar alsocorrespondingly lm nd theflow at LIin canbe 17-18bllon m'/yearto flushthe sit. For a 90 pecent flowprobability ye theflow can be reducedto about9-10 bMion ilyear to flushthe sl ou Sic soi cosrvan meses rduc sit load by about300 mio tonsper yea C25peet) In the 1980s,It is adcpad dthby the yea 2000sit loadswI bereduced a Aorher25 p andt wate flowreqiements at Lijincan be reducedby a fthrX 25peroent, (Le., flowsneoed for a P50 yO willbe i 18 blionm /year,P75, 13-14billion iIyear, andP90 7.5 bin 'tyear). WithX laoa Damin place,it i anticipatedtha prset flw reurme can be reducd by a fuhe 50 pct. Thes wer someof th basicparameter used on th ecnomicmoddUng of th - 152- pN&Z bad Ie waw fo flushbasahigh oppotuity cs andway to rduce fluig needscan res In s4alfiln ecoonomibnft.

Ilg 8: WETSMSoN SEWD NT

2~~~~~~~~~~~

42 - - 8 ++-+ - _-X

_ ~ ~ ;V--___~ ~ ______

1, _ _z5r ~~~~~VVVV -

3 10 20 so 40 So so

wetx iasmon f low a ACTUAL + PE8kSSI0N oCONF(4.0QD - 153- A

AGPICULTUIE

A. CR YEDS AD PRODU ON 1. CropArea. Thelad use,populadon breakdown, output values of culvaed arma andtotal outp of thebasin ar shownin Tables1, 2, 3 and4. Thetot culivabedara Inthe basinIn 1987was 15.6 mhin ha,of which38 perce (5.9mIllionba) was under fA or pati irrigaio he averagebasin cropping intensity s 119. About15.6 mlion ha (seeTable 5) are sownto ftin, p¢marilywheat, corn, and coas grainsand 68 pecent of this ls dived fromIrrigted area. Cottonand oiseeds ar themajor cash crops, with sown ae of 1.4 and1.3 mion harespectively. Some44 pecent of cottonad about10 prcet of oilseed s under Igation. Sxty-fou percet of whea-sownarea and 67 prcent of corsown areaI fud in theWei Riv Valeyand th lowerreach. RiceI sownmaiy on dt Nnga Pain andon theHenan strthes of thelower reah. Eity-six percenof thearea sown to cotton I on lb lowerreach. By conast, oiseedsare dprsed trougboutthe basnlII 2. Crop Yields. For the basinas a whole,crop yields are gealy respectable; whet yieldsaversao 2.8 tonha, maiz 4 ton/ba,paddy 6.4 tona, cotton1.0 tonha, and oseeds 1.3ton/ha. Yildds mprov dramatically tough middleraches of theFen and Wei rivervaeys andthe lower reach. Lower rach yieldsar on a par withohr aeaon theNorth hn Plain,which are among the best yields In Asia Nonetheless, r ar sgniicat sections of thebasin, especially the Less Plateau, th arecharacterized by tmely lowyields. In the LoessPlateau, wheat yields average only 1.6 ton/ha, m 2.8 ton/ba d oileds 0.6 tmonha (seeTable 5).V 3. With Improvedirrigat and drainage,combind with soil Imprment, deeopmt of Ipoved ad app ia fetim use, crp yidds r epe tOD ica sgficaty. For eample, wheatylds willinra by about50-100 percen for gains andcotton by up to 50 peet annually. 4. ProduIon InL1987, tebainproduced20.3millotsonsofwhleat, 11.8milon tonsof can, 0.9 mlion tonsof paddy,1.4 million tos of le cottonand 1.7 million tons of osooeds(se Table5). Neariy70 percentof wheatpuction ad 74 percen of con producn wasconceated in theWel River Valley ad onthe lower reach. Nealy 90 pAucent of paddywas producedIn just two rons, th Ninga Pla and the lowerream A

,I YRCC,Cm" SmadI &*Wia, 197.

2/lbDA -154-

86 pewce of coton pOoduton originatedon the lowerreach. By contrast,oliseed producdon was -i wideDyspretad thouut the basin$

D. lIGTzD AGRICULTUREN THEYELLOw RIVER

5. Tb we over 110 major irrigt projects ontroling over 5.7 million ha scatered along the nib provi of the YellowRiver Basin.&I The growth of irrigation deveopmentfm 1919to 1970is over 1,400percent In 71 years (see Table 6). Mostof the developmt occued betwee 1949to 1979. Jrrigatonrequirements vary cosiderably becse of the wie vaiation In soil d hydrogeologicalconditions-conditions which have influenced the te and eten of Iigatidovdelopmt in the basin. In the northwestand overa largepart of the midde reachof the YeVlowRiver, where annual rainl is less than 400 mm, irrigation Is a perequite for productionof any cropsand Irrigationsupplies over 50-60percent of the waterused fo crop. In the northand northeast, including the NorthChina Plain, whereannual rainfal rangesbet 400 and 1,000mm, Irgaion Lds varyboth annally and seasonally, dep on the fhqucy and seveity of the monsoon.5/ Throughoutthe basin, but pardcularlyin Irigation districtsin the alluviallower reach plains, the drought-inducedcrop water shortagesdurig cic owth peiods may also be partily offset by emergency

6. Irigation thnologies cu: gravity-fed ace diversions(with and without ingenioussit managementsystems), along the GreatBend of the Yellowin Ningxi and Inner Mongolia,along the two great YellowRiver triuay valeys, the Wei RiverValley in Shaanxl adiheFenRimr Valleyin Sh4, nd onthe lowerreaches; high-lift (between 50 and 700m) schme, found prmary In the Lom Pwl of Gamu, Ningia and Shanl provina; dIverIonstogeift schmes, whichpredomate In downeam ffingeareasof gravityshemes In Sao Province; onjuistroam aquifersystems; and well irrigationsystem (see Table 7).

7. .rrged Aricultur o the Nkigzlaand Iner MongoliaPlains. The Ninguxa and Iner Mongoliaplain (and the Wd River Valey) c 0omnorthwest Chas most impoa agric al rei Thes plais ncompa about2.1S million ha of cultvale land In two provns, Nigla and Inner Monolia. Croppingitties are between110 and 113 ad croppedarea is about2.37 mMionha About68 percentof this area is underfoodgans, producingsome 2.88 milion tons eachyear, or 0.6 percentof Chia's totalproducdon. Spring whea is th bads ofth crpping pattern:it is grownfrom March to the endof July withanmul outputof 1.26 mdlliontons, whichis 44 percet of regionalgrain production and 0.3 percentof natal producin Corn,soybeas, andpaddy are plantedsomewhat later in the spring(April-

M About4.3 milionaatberigad to some denbysuface wter, of whichneady 3 millionha we Irrigatedabove Ruayuukoll on h upp andmiddle rahes, andthe maining1.4+ millionha fromwells,of wh dy 08 millionha ar we igated aboveHuwauanko YRCRPDI, Yellow RImWorn U4MgasIo &w%, 1986 s actuld1980 iiatedam are dfe bainas a whole ina needy 3.8 lh 5 Por exa , 30 pecut of crp consume needsmig be mat fiominigation in wet aut or, mopdemad omIi coudwl exoeed70 percnt in dryautumn and 50+ percentof wina whea wtr needswM be omt frm irrigationin anyyea. IIIIi~i!II so'II

IJIIi""'~~~~~~G~~

".*'a

so~~~~~~~~~~~ Is~~~~~~i - 1S6-

cottonthe followingyear or double roped winterwheat and corn. Winterwheat fbrms the bass of the croppig pattern:It is grow on 2.7 millIonha-52 percentof foodgrainsown aea-fom Octobe throughJun withSnnual output of 6.08millIon tons, whichis 29.9 percen of basis and 7.4 pern of the nations wheatproducdon. Summercorn Is plan on 0.97 milion ha (18.5percent of regionalf1odgrain sown aa) as soon as the wheat s harvested, fromlate Jue throughSeptember, producIng 3.5 millIontons anualy (29pecent of regiona foodgrainproduction, and 29 percentof basi cornproduction). Coase gris (sorghum,barley and millet), grown on 1.5 millionha, accountfor the remning foodgra croppedarea. Ollseeds(soy, rapeseed and sesame) grown on 0.4 millionha and cotton(0.2 millionha) are the reion's Imort cashcrops. Cottonis grownfrom mid-April through October, yielding 0.1 milliontons of ginnedcotton per year, whichis 9.S percentof the basin'sand 2.3 percentof the naio' outpu resetvely.W1

12. About34 percentof the tvated areais in the Fen andWei dver valleysirrigaed (1.8 millionha). Progams to constructIrrgaon faclities In these valleyshave resultedin dramatiincreases in hTiged area since 1949,from 0.2 millionha in 1949to 1.8 mIllionha today. As a rest of the ensive invmes in majorirrigation worls, almostall surface wat Is subjectto some coto and 69 percen of all gmundwar is e&actedj2l The majorsources of irigation waterfor these valleysare the YellowRiver and five of its major tributaries-tbePen,Sushul, Wei, Luo andJing rivers. However,annual reguated flows from thesetrbutaries In the Fen and Wei valleysfall belowcrop waterreqWuments for significant porton of these valleysin tbree out of four years.IZI Boththe Pen and the Wei valleys havoeaozed main-stemallocations which have beenbarely tapped due to the highcosts and tical problemsof conveyingwater to the bluffsoverlooking the mainstem. TheFen and Wei river valleyshave 7 large and 47 medium-sizedreservoirs (with combined live storage pacit of 3.27 bIllionmi, 921 waterdiversion schemes (aul capacityof 2.6 billionmi), 3,822lift schemes(anmual capacity 0.96 billionni) and 2,533tubewells.J/ Majorirrigation district ilude: Rlamakou,Dayudu, X , Xaofan, Fennan,Yuansng, XMaoliang,Chanlo, and Wenjingin Shaxl and Baojixia,liaokou, Jianglu, and Dongleiin Shaanxi.j1 3. Despitethe pace and extat of development,about 11 pert (2.2 millionha) of th landarea rmns classifiedas umnsed(78 percent of whichis not suitablefor agricultural, agoforestr or rangelandsdevelopment) and 72 perent is somewhatsubject to soil and waft eroslon.J/ Rapidpoplation and economicgrowth has rsted in growingagricultural water

,I YRCCCOrra Siuto au,si" 1987,1991.

12V stmte of awfamwat use ggootthat as muh as 47percet of regioa many-year avep n_Aulzedrnoff isused ins P75yea (YRCC,Yelow Rtwer Water uwcv Usl&Wlo S&uy). Goundw is dervedas k 1987agrIultr dwateuse, 3.808 biln to?,as a perentag of exploitablegudwdaer t eso, 5.501billio, (Zlaau, 'Rport an Yelw RivbNestment Plannng., 1992 M/ WordBanklc Sh Agrimuul Dewlpmn Projec SJfAppraka Repft. ly YRCC,Cnwn S _awo&LWt, lbkd.

i/ Ang Ping,1992, Repoeton Xaolagi DamProec Appr (weie). I& YRCC,1991, Cww Siaiox Saac, op. dit. -157- 3 shortagesand fallinggrundwater tables. Groundwaterfunnels bave developedunder boti Talyuanand Xian. Althoughthese depresion cones owe more to municipaland industr (M&I)extraction, especily goudwater withdrawalsfor energybase needs,agriultua widawals havecontrlbute to thelos andare afected. Thelimited regial surfaceand groundwaterresoure potent, seriousgmundwater depletion, A and Incompletewater deliverysystems, and the high costs of main-stemlift schemes, place serious consa on the fue delopment of krigati in the area. Duing thepast decade, as elsewhe, thefocus of investmenthas shifted toward provingthe efficiency of existigsystm tough completion of on-farmworks and stregthening the opeto and maenane and rigtion sym. Newlydeveloped and proposed expansions in Ited arm wfllbe fed fromYdlow River main-stemlift schemes. In themedium to longterm, GOC plam to divertwater frm proposed facilitiesat Waniarhal,Qlkou and, ultimately, Longmen to alleae watershortages in these vaeys. 14. Irrigted AgrIcultureon thelower Yelow River. Ihe lowerYellow River is part of the North China Plain-China'smost importantagrIculul region.IV The area encompassesabout 4.4 millionha of cultivableland in two provine, Henanand Shandong (Tables8, 9, 10 and 12). Cropping esities arebete 1.5and 1.6and is about7 mIlion ha arecropped. About 75 percentof thisarea is underfoodgrains, producing some 19 million tonseach year, or 4 percentof China's tot productionand 22 percentof annualNCP foodgrain production.Wheat is thebasis of thecropping patte: it is grownfrm mid-Septmberto the ead of May,with annualouut of 9.9 mflliontons, or 12percent of nationalproduction (26percent of NCPwhee production). Corn, soybean and peanuts are planed as soonas the wheatis harvested,from lae Aprilto mid-June.Olseeds (mainly rapeseed) are grownfom earlySetmbr to lateMay. CottonIs the area's most important cash crop. It is grownfrom Aprilto November/Decemberon about 17 perce of the crpped areaand yields 1.2 million tonsof ghmedcotton per year(28 pacent of national output and S1 percentof NCPproduction). 15. About36 percentof thecultivated area in thelower Yellow River (1.8 million ha) is Irigated. As a resultof extensiveinvest s sating in th 19508,almot aUsurface water in theNCP is subjectto somecontrol and 70 pecet of aUgoundwater is extacted.The lower YellowRimer has 3 large and 27 mediu-ized resrvoirs (wkh live se capaciy of 630millon rn), 537,000tubowells and a prelimy networkof agricultral services at thecounty and lower levels. Despite these advantae, about81 percent(4 millin ha)of the landarea is classifiedas lowand medium yielding and significant arm aresubjec to salinity, waterloggingand decaton. Upto halfthe runoff of themajor rivers is lostas a reut of uncontrolledroff durin theflood and rainy seasons. Moreover, increasing populaon and rapideconomic growth have resulted i increasingwater demand for agdcultu use. Lhimted war resorces-alreadyfully exploied, in manyareas-coupled with aging and incomplete wat deliveaysyems, pla seriouscoadnts onthe future development of agrculte Inthe area. To addressthese constraints, GOC plans to investfurther in waterconsrvation measures thatwill Improve the edficiency of wateruse. 16. Cumnt ConskhIntIn rTIgtedAgr=ltue on theYdlow Rlver. Despitepast succeses,the Yellow River Basin now faces numerous problems in the igaon sector.Many of thelarge schemes constructed in the 1950sand 1960swere hastily designed and built with

V Almob:w astheo H Hua-Hai(311) pla, refeingto the thm rivr basinswhich Mon*= th Pain-fth Yeow, Huaiand Hal. . 18- low-quatymarals ad eqipmen. Mostnow reqie maor upgradingor rehabilitaton. May of thee schm lackdrainage, and rrigaon networksat thetrtary ad fm level- neto whichwer to havebeen consucted by localgovrnet. Largetra of cultvated landhave bee affet by waterloggingand sonday soil sidZo as a rut of ecevo igttWotiwithu effectivedige to controlthe ris, of thewater table. 17. Becausemo ementsmust be plannedand implemenedin an iterte manr for large, con s, blocks of land, large Invtmes are needed. 7h. uncotrolled ceontrcon of tubewls, propt by govm t subsidies nd the low capit cost of nepment, ad electricitycharges for pumping,has led to overplotatlon of groundwat, excessivedrawdown of waterlevels, and land subsidence, paicularly in dte lowet reahof theFen, Wei and Yelow rvers. 18. a d a hasbeen Idequate in may areas.Resourcesallocated by the centr andprvinca pvrnment havefrequenty not bee adequatdymated by fn omcounty and tohip levds. 1netmentin and m of on-famfciLties, fomery a caomun responsibilityduring the sak winterseason, was disruted for seal yas by t introductionof the householdproduction respouibility systm. RedW mas wr to a largeeent cailed by govment budgetcuts In the igaton sectorbeginig In 1980. Sta capi nvoestmentIn irrigation has reunded somewhatshice 1985 but s falls shortof pro-1980lovels. The deveopmet of newwater uces has notkept pace with the growthin waterdemand from agricdulture, idustry, andurban cets. C. Iwr USE 19. Threediffn meodologes wereused to estmatecrop iput use-fixed-point 8mates{forainfed, pailly irrigatednd fuly irgated areast wee madefor WodrdDan ptojes in five difert Yelow Riverregions; yield-crop wate use repon functions deveopedby two deret ee rearh unit r the YelowRiver Wator Rource BEoomicModelling Study, nd yield-cropwater rspon funcdo esmated usig PAO Cpwat nods.W TheWodd ak eimates ar basedon project-specificdata, th latter two emloy Yeltow River regional agcimactc and county arictua dataJl Athugh the fbiedpoint are basedon epthaalysis of constet project-specficdata. _ in tanfd, pardy iged andfully ad rm syms, inpu use and yields e s d ogenoy.

IV Rqpu in dh projectfile coain descriptiosof eac of thm mohd .W la Wodd Bankems arepreented in to flowing Staff p Repozt Nevh ln4a*t NOJ (1988),S4x Apcu Delopm (1919), A_a D _ hPrOc(1991), Shadonsg AgrkawW Devipaw hVea (11), ldgo _IreaM e Low (1991), andXko i fMubipw Rmn* Pbromat AppuufrRqen (da, 199). Th regon YelowRrier daots sr ivn YRCC,1991, Cwivm Swk &Aotn, M7. - IS9 -

20. Bycot, boh ofthe Chse studiesand the FAO Cropwatmodels atempt to es_imt tregionalcrop yieldsfrom poducton funcdon nlyses.2Q Unfortnely, there are a uUmberof erus flw wih bothof the Chino studiesthat probibittheir use In this studyJ UseFAO Cropwatmodds es the effecton yieldsof waterstress during cac odaothperiods.No att m mat to moddthe offectsof otherInput use on yields. In thisstudy, analyss of Inputuse combinesthe fixed-pointWorld Bank project esdmates with dheCropwat work so hatthe ffectsof differ lovesof all inputscan be determined. 21. Tables17 to 24 showinpwt use and yields by regionbased on WorldBank project dat forabout sen projectsalong the Yellow River Basin. These inputs have been discussed in detai wih provine andwe pobly themost represve inputs.in mostregions of the basi, peset lonls of Inputuse, particuarly for hih-quality hybrid seeds, chemical fertilizers, ag_ochemi, farmmn, andirigation, are notsufficient to reapsadsfactory yield levis.Z2 ReturnstO ropng a quitelow andthe basin'sgenerly amplefarm labor Is undued.2/ roFutryield leves ad iput use areexpected to riseonly with significant on- fm eM . Typically,the required nonwater-relaed on-form investments include: large i _naein emicalfertlizers (especialy phospht fertizers), superiorseeds (and hybrid cultva), dlftialsonof succeul ctivation pices (teacing, agroforestryand other soil oms neasures deepplowing,etc.), ant changesin croppingpatterns.Notwiftstanding tse problm, the basin's chiefaricultuWal co0mn is war use and war scarcity. 22. CropWaer C on. Amongthe mostimportt p aetersto thisstudy aOthowe reld to crp wae requiremt. Irigationaccounts for about 90 percentof Yellow Riverconptivo us, and planshavo been made to dramaticallyexpand Irigated areas. Whe thesepl arevle, andwhether or not watershortages will appear In thefuture, dependisi lar measureon theqof waterin irrigation.YRCC has prepared a set of monthlyigatioa quirementsatth levelof thesublateral canal, for the four main irrigated rps (Wheatco, cot, and paddy)f1r eachof the sity-odd subregion,and for wet, medIanand d ryainll conditions.N/These reqieme, aregated to the ten-region

W TheDaft Rrl Bo_ Rarc Isitewo* e_stiaesCobbDuclo pdfimmtions frm SSBYelow Rive bhul ml county- aqrc dat, andYRCC aggegao annua fam w =ated CASS SWeu irrigationquot standards o xinixg Farm rigaon Re"soerbIdy at qudrtc yld.crcp watr us funtons fm Yelow River

WI Reviionsa beig nude to bathof _hs sudie andriable asnlsmay be availablefor fiStur

22 Hower, doe m dat cstcy problm with noof tisddda,se WRMIand YRCC, 1991, OYRWRMSProdumcion Extio is, dtaft 1 Te pdc ud in crp budgt ae deived fiim borderpreocalions consist_t wt hosedicod in he llowingseto andprsntd inTabls -. NetreturnS do not csider ft co of harmisr. WI "Anlyuisof Agrculturalegred Irgtion Quot, an to Yelw Pim Wate Udon -160 - Al 3 level used for this study,have been adoptedfor use In the Basin-LevelModel analysis.I Given h impotanceof thses numbe, the objeciveof tis scdon I to checkthem git otier availablelnformation. 23. ITe saring point for most analysesof crop war needs In rerenc evariratln, or ETO. In TabloAl below,two etmates of ETOfor the variou regions are presene, one constructedby an IPS comultant,and one producedby FAO's CROPWAT programafter asignig the fry-odd clma stationsin the CIMWAT data file whichlie in tho Basinto the reeVantregions. Table Al: ENODy REGION(nun)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Au$ Sep Oct Nov Dec Year

(Consultant'. Estimates) 2 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.7 4.0 3.2 3.2 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.5 717 3k 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.0 5.0 4.7 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.3 915 3B 0.5 0.5 2.0 3.7 5.7 5.5 5.3 4.0 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.4 984 4 0.5 0.7 2.0 3.7 5.7 5.5 5.3 4.4 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.4 1,007 SA 0.6 0.8 2.1 3.5 4.5 6.0 5.1 4.0 2.8 1.5 0*7 0.4 974 5B 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.7 3.5 5.8 5.7 4.9 2.7 1.3 0.8 0.5 958 6 1.0 1.1 2.2 3*0 4.5 5.7 4.7 4.2 2.6 1.7 1.0 0.7 989 7A 1.0 1.3 2.5 3.5 4.6 7.7 5.5 5.2 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.7 1,177 7B 0.8 1.1 2.1 4.0 5.3 6.0 4.3 3.5 2.7 2.0 1.0 0.5 1*014

(CROPWAT E4timates)

2 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.7 4.7 5.4 5.1 4.5 3.5 2.4 1.5 0.9 1,107 3A 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.5 4.6 5.2 5.0 4.4 3.3 2.2 1.3 0.8 1,055 3B 0.6 0.9 1.9 3*3 4.9 5.6 5.2 4.3 3.3 2.1 1.1 0.6 1,032 4 0.9 1.2 2.2 3.6 4.7 5.3 4.9 4.2 3.2 2.2 1.3 0.9 1,056 5A 1.0 1.3 2.1 3.4 4.5 5.0 4.5 3.9 3.1 2.2 1.4 1.0 1,019 51 0.9 1.2 2.0 2.9 3.9 4.6 4.4 4.1 2.8 1.9 1.3 1.0 946 6 1.0 1.3 2.1 3.0 3.9 4.7 4.6 4.2 3.0 2.1 1.4 1.0 985 7A 1.1 1.5 2.5 3.8 4.8 5.5 5.0 4.4 3.6 2.6 1.7 1.1 1,147 71 1.1 1.5 2.3 3.6 5.1 5.6 4.4 3.8 3.5 2.8 1.8 1.2 1,119

24. With the excepon of Region2, the twose of etmates arequie dose, differing at mostby 15 prcen YRCCdid not reportthe estimatesthey employed,or indeedif their methodreqired ETOat all.

2S I! roleof thee dt in the imo s derid In Ann 6, and tdo ffien of maonty Iigtion equumit canbe foundin Tda WREQin theGAMS lsting appnd to thaax. - 161 -

Irrigtion Rqieet 25. TableA2 reot o waterrequirements at the field,te contibutionof effective ail In meetingthose requiremens, and the remainder,or Irrigationrequiremetnts. Column (a) refs to YRCC data, (b) to the consultants smat, and (c), to the CROPWATouut. YRCCdata (columna) wer not reporteddirecty for the firt two catgories, but werederived from YRCC's rainll data and the assumedcrop calendar. 26. Notefis thatthere are widevariations across reglons In eachcategory of datafor a given crop. Only YRCC's etim ae aggrgae of betweentree and thiteenpoint esmates; the others are based on one or two poin. n general,the YRCCdata showthe lowesttotal aop waterrequiremts. Thismay be dueto YRCC'8stated practice of netftngout the conbution of growater (subirtVga&tie;but it also reflectsa bis towardestimates which mote closelyrflect acta practice. The CROPWATesdmaes are genealy higherthan dt other two, presumablybecause CROPWAT methodology produces water requiemet for optimal plt growth. The consultant'sestimates are also higher on average; this method did not includesubirgation. The contributionof rainfll also showswide varation, withYRCC's esimaes generallythe lowest, and the consultaet's, the highest. 27. Irrt,ation requiremes, shownin the bottompart of TableA2, are the difference betweentotal water requrementsand the contributionof rainfall. For corn and cotton,the YRCCmeans are aboutat mid-range,but are lowestfor whoat. However,the conruion of rainfl i also lowes in YRCC's data, whichaccounts for much of the difference. We conclude that there is no reasonto rejectYRCC's irrigation requiements esmates: they are basedon a morethorough (at least,more observations)analysis than the others,are generallylower than the 'opdmr CROPWATpredictions, and mostimporta, produceconsistent basiwide totals of irrigationwater use whenemployed In the BasinLevel Model (see Annex6). D. MARKMAND PRICES

28. Markets. Demandfor gains, oilseedsand cottoncoaiues to incr a a result of poplaton and incomegrowth and favorableincome elasticities of demand.Z Growing rural industrybput needsalso createa ser domesticdemand for noneWortedcrops. Since 1980, selectedareas in the basinhave been designatedas major domesticgrain bases, with producto earmarkedfor other domesticgradn deficit reglons.2V However,culivated area has deased, while localhuman consumption, industra and feed demandshave increased. Productmarkets are as follows: 29. Grains. Altoughboththel989andl990grainproduedonof408mIllionand435 milliontons,respectively, exceeded the 1984bumper harvest after four distppoiting years,sil Chinais projectedto have importd about 15million tons of wheat,1.2 milliontons of rice end 0.3 milion tons of maize in 1990. For the YellowRiver basinas a whole,per capitagri

IWGiv th vey lowiom leves of ms of dtebai o_uties,incom eities of dend for fhodgrainsaods ad cotooon avm likelyto contn to be favonble fl/ In parih ar, e li foodplainsof th lowerracw. Otherbas ina, in ptular th FPe and Wei Rivervalleys and do NiBguaand In Moolia plais, be beowi _portanon n bam for caturs -162-

Table Al: T0rAL WATrnU JUd3If AT VIEL (MM)

Region WIEAT CORN COTTON (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c)

2 495 359 514 482 454 571 3A 309 372 504 304 495 553 3B 319 488 552 329 569 589 4 452 357 539 446 622 548 5A 377 440 551 429 392 328 532 395 628 5B 401 410 493 454 432 312 582 510 592 6 342 428 511 417 403 322 582 598 611 7A 259 415 547 327 460 324 521 598 672 7B 383 481 554 339 323 284 492 657 641 mean 371 417 529 392 461 426 542 552 629

CONTRIBUTION0F RAIN AT VIEW (Mb)

2 117 158 119 179 258 216 3A 48 68 61 95 157 107 3B 51 46 76 113 334 134 4 115 46 127 198 356 216 SA 121 205 112 204 334 220 288 311 297 5B 152 160 154 218 244 208 327 408 319 6 134 193 167 232 335 210 327 408 317 7A 112 115 112 227 335 229 326 208 324 7B 95 161 104 239 314 215 321 388 312 mean 105 128 115 189 296 195 318 345 314

IRRTGATIONRBQUIR AT VIEM (MH)

2 379 201 395 302 196 355 3A 261 304 443 209 338 446 3B 268 442 477 216 235 454 4 338 311 412 248 266 332 SA 256 235 439 226 58 107 144 84 331 5B 249 250 339 236 188 107 255 102 273 6 208 235 343 185 68 112 255 190 294 7A 147 300 435 100 124 96 195 208 347 7B 288 320 450 100 9 83 172 269 329 mean 266 289 415 202 165 232 224 171 315 productionis 81 percen of nadonal adktaesive areasof th b have foodgralnoutub far below the stdard. Of the basis provinces,only Henan Is a large foodgrainsurplus prowice (with a 5 mlion ton suus In 1989)ad ca be expcd to supply basin deficit s.21t Shandong,wih Henanth only ote lr basin grai prod In the North ChinaPlain grain bas, lacks reliablewaer res and has gone f1m a nt

211 Wold Bak, 19911Hen= A8"uwr D.wIpue Pivfea WAppal Rpov -163- 3

ododganexp stanceto bie f andms reety to beg a smallnot gWn import.2/ Ih ohr mor grainproducing regio, the Fernand We valleysand the Nnga andbunnr Mongolia plain, can,at most, be cted. to beregional splies to the chroicly graindefici Loess Plateau. Pently, Slaaanxand San, conaningthe Wei and FenRiver valley respeovdy, ar both gra defick provica (Shad Importsover a quat mim ton of wheataually).& Asof 1986,Nixla hadachieved basic fine fodgral efsufficlency, er Monolia had net mport of 0.78mIllon tons of wheat and over a quater million eachof dei andmnalyz 30. Cotton.Ther I alsoconsiderable excess national demad for cotton.Altho oduionhas grown rapidly it hasnot kept pace with the large and expad exportcapaciy of thetextile Industry. National producton of cottonb epectedto reach3.84.0 million tons in 1990,while tot demandwil eceed4.5 milliontons. Despite the tght domesdcupply sluaton,China contmies to be a neteport of cotton,exporting 0.5 milion tons of cottonin 1989.Ihe majorbasin cotton producing provinces are either just meetig needs or areoperating millsbeow capcity. Shandog i self-sufficientIn cotton.3l Although,Kenmn I sti considereda se eporterof coto-lin, provi cottondemand has so far ouipped supply thatofficis expetto baancedemd andsupply ondy by reducigdemand In the SPYP roughclosues or conversonof small-scalecotton processing and tete mills.3 31. Ohe. In responseto rapid mru andurban income growth in recentyears, domestcdemand for ediblevegetable oil bas Increasedsubstialy. Despitereaively tigbt supli of olsees, in 1989China managed to exportlarge quanties of soybea, 1.3millon tons,and odtr oilseeds,0.3 milion ton. Thebasin produced 1.7 million tons of olsees In 1987,88 pece of basindemand. Howvr, eventhe majorbasin oilseed producin arm, Hean andShandong, have been operatlng oil processn facilidesbelow capacity due to shrtg of rawmaterialss. 32. ForestProducts. Foresy acdvities are pmoted pmary for o pures. Hower, bothChin ad thebasin have a rgeexcss demad for fors produc,

2V Wod1dBook, 191 Iae Akuu InsemfcaonL SLfo p4praisaRp. SW WorldBank, 1989, SumI AgwbwWlDewomen f a &4Wff aLWlRepor.

31 Athougheke egona trade baom in finefogumins for th Inne Mangolia-Ninpiaplains is not kown, tb_ ph an m. u ly to be ne foodgrainp or, at most,suppliers to deficit arepsn pai fringeo,Wodd Bank, 1988, NMvxd bgaton P a StPfjAppna Rnom

Sy WolddBn, 1991,M rsdW4A*ukbIeseadox Loa *fAppalsa Repl a Pvminia ahti ao reput difficultiesinimporting fficimnt i ror &tm aboad,Word Bank,1991, He4a AgHk'bwu DeVlpM SfApr P ad WordB , 1992,I ZlAvd MA*wpe ltew a ct A l p 3g Do. discalatds 5kgedbb oUlp capitainurb maand3kginr ramus, _8 tha a tonof ihs yields0.3 tonadibe oiL w WorddBank, 1991,He1 AgkauW Dewlpn_ PA#*a-StAMn a Repetad Wodd Ban, 1991, ita AtS4v cwlv4Pa qP -164-

whethertimber, pulp, or fuelwood. Productionof these goodswil hav ready markeftboth withinthe basinas wel as in otherprovine to offst growingimport. 33. Ma Channels. The ar threechanes for domesi marketig of grin and oil cps. Famers mustsell a propordonof theircrop to st GrainBurex in accordance withcoutracts eblished at the beging of eachseason. GOCset anual targetsand purcae pric for staplecrop contra pement In consutationwith the proinces. However,county authoritieshae someflexibility In setng speic target andprces forcp Inaccordance with localproduction pats. GOChas steadilyreduced procurement targets from 1S-17percent of totalprodton in 198Sto 8-11percent in 1989,and, in h future,Intends to reducethem Aurher../ After fuilling contracts,famers can sell direcdyto the local Grai Bureauat negotatedprices or in localmarkets. Negodatedgrain proemens, at pricesusually pegged dily belowmarket levels, now account for about 9 percn of otalgrain producdon and about 20 percentof oilcropproducdon, again with wide variations. In the basinthere are morethan 800rual marks andbetween 2-30 pecn of gains and2-38 pert of oilcropsare marketed in rural trade fairs. Incresingly, provincesare pemitting farmersto disposeof incremental grain and oil cropproduction as they wish. 34. Cotton. In accordancewith ntional policy,farmers will sell all of theircotton lint outpttto localSupply and MarktingCoopetiv (SMCs)at fixedprices (see Tables 17 to 24). 35. Output Prices. As part of ongoingagdculural reforms,GOC has reducedthe numberof goods subjectto state monopolyprurement, reducedthe quantitiesof gains pocuroedunder compulsorycontra and inrsed producerprices. Addiioaly, GOChas easediterprovinca marketingrestrictions and sanctionedthe establishmentof free retail and wholesalemarkets. Consumershave also beetted from the wider availabilityand higher qality of farm products. However,agricultal price reformhas been asocated withrapid nfIn, sharpprice d supplyfluctuations, mountig stat expenditureson consumerfood subsidiesand growinginefficiencies in the alocationand saleof fam inputs. 36. Grain and Oil crops. There are three sets of producerprices for grain and oil aops. Theprices set by the govermentfor contact salesare the lowestof these. Freemarket pricesarevery closeto contractprices. Prices egotaed wih stategrain bureaus are supposed to be peggedto marketprices; recenly they have been about 5-10 percentbelow them.37/ Wodd pricesfor wheat,rice, and soy are nOwIno muchdiffet from the negodatedprices.

37. Cotton. Cotton farmers are obliged to sell all their produedonunder state procuremencontracts. Cottonprices are fixedevey three years by GOC. The most rece hre year period, 1987489,has just endedand cottonprices were raised26.9 percentin late 1989. / Cotton poduon declinedsbtily between 198486, before prices were

Wf T.acua propordionpaiua famr contac ofa mpariua cropvie covnArblydeedn an countyPla formeeting 8 tat. How, godl990bavsaeeducdmarketpr belowngotiadesles, mandn at 'aus8 d prie leveMfor sm rops. FtFom Y 4728/eo to Y 6000toL -165S- A 3 adjustedin 1987. Since 1987, cottonproducton has recoveredsomewhat in responsOto provincial(and local) inendve schemes, amounting to between10-15 percen of the natioa price.39IHowever, sinc 198S,for a vaietyof reas, includit droughtand other natural diast but mosdyreflectng prico disincentives, few regionsmet con productontargets. Contractprices prey (1991)for cottonar closeto theworld price. 38. InputPrices (see Tables 17 to 24). FarmInputs ar mainlyditibuted hroh the state-rn market system(SMCs). Farm inputs have been underpriced throughout China for manyyears. Theprice structure for mostcritical farm putsfear at leastthree diffret pricelevels: low incentive prices, mid-level prices and local negotated prices. Itve Input prices,for imported and domestic feizets, Imporedpesdicdes and dometc uels,ar linked to staplecrp contractproduction. In the projectarea, farminput sales of uresat ientive pricelevels amount to lessthan 5 percentof tot demad. Thereidual demand is met from localproduction sold at mid-levelprices, from SMCs at negotiatedprices or fromlocal (blac) marketpurhase at marketprice levels which are presently close to worldmarket prices. 39. WaterPrics. Mostof the YellowRiver provinces and prefctures have pausd regulaionsrequiring assessment of agriculturalwater charges. In thespirt of the1988 Wator Law,most of thesereguations now require some sort of volumuriccharge. Prior to the 198S waterresource subseor reforms,water fees were charged on anarea basis, fee levels wer very lowor evenzero, and fee collection was not a prioriq. Farmbeneficiaries contributed labor In aual villagewaer resourceO&M efforts or in countyor prefectr masswater coutruction campaigns. 40. Thintent of thereforms, as oudinedIn the 198SMWR directive WaterFeo Approval,Collecdon, and Management Methods", is th feelevels would cover he ful cos of waterdelivery, Including system O&M charges, major repair and ovehaul, and depreciation (on-farmfuel, electricky and labor costs ae excluded),whiloe ecura consation. Asthe fee levelswere subseWently raised, on a piece-wiseprefcrl and provincalbasis, stae subsidiesin supportof localwater management were removed. To addincentives to Improve management,local management units were made more fincially responsiblefor systemO&M costs. The sa, reognizingthe real difficultiesof manylocal water resource unhs, also permitd watermanagement entities to developrevenue genating sidelines,tree useries, reservoirfisheris, tourism,and so on. 41. Tberoare a varetyof waterfee mecms (seotables 26 and27), raning from area fees, combinedarea and volumetrlc ares, volumetriccages, seaonal volumetric charges,water fees augmented by er nal charges,and war feesplus silt retention chges. Forthe most par, areaand combined area and volumetric charges predominate In the YellowRiver basin provinces. Area charges are calculated based on plann igatedarea and areassessed regardless of the exte of Irgationdiversion. Volumetric fees are calculated based on anarea prorated share of thewater intak of thelatal canal.When combined, aa chages averageY l/mu/yrand volumetriccharges Y 30-40/1,000me.-Q Warpingfees average aboutY 10/1,000in. Thereare alo a varietyof type of payments.Fees may be pad in cash,

39j The Incives cuntly amomntto antY 700/to IW hr=gPing, 1991, laeRxt on Xlaolan DamAppr&Ws (revised) -166-

tough rdeemableadvancepurch r coupons,or in kindat hwast Whenpid In knd, thefee Is commutedat ao 15kg of wheatyr, vauedat thestate proment prklce.4 42. NotwittandIn rins feeleves and new reveue sources, local war magemet unitshave devloped cash shorals fbr critdalsystm O&Mneeds. As a coseque, local Irrigtio administrie unis have begun to levy extmop chargesIn adion to the wat fes. TypWiy, thesecages havetwo components,one to over the O&Mof th conveyesystem managedby the irr on distict administi the mains,feers and laterals,and one to covetO&M cos beowthe latrl. Mhefrm chage is rm to the disict administrativeuit, the latter to the towndip water co vncy uniL The extr chaes may add as muchas 80 percen to the exist volumetrccharge, haf for conVeYan systemO&M and half to meetO&M needs ofthe on-fam system On-fam costsdo not include Irrigationand di supervisionrsponsibilites, for which fames sepratelypay about Y 0.20/ man-hurto elcted arm cana tende. 43. AlthouShthe Water Law allows for the leving of F"w r feesand such fees are essedaIn M&I goundwat withdrawals,vey few agrultural wel rrgaor on the YellowRiver arwe rged for oundwater.Fas are ponsiblefor nvestmentsin wel excavation,pumps and motors, as wel asthe fel, dectricityand labor wel Irrgao opetati eens. As a resut, convence sstem an rech work commonto wellIrrigation shmes ar deu ly maintined. To remedythis siton someYelow Riverregions hav begunto collectgoundwater resource fes of aboutY 30ha/yr. 44. Typicatly,fees collectedby theloca watr resourcun itherbin advamnof th Irigatio seaso or at crophavest time. Ihem collecdonsar remtd to the t p waer conevay agey. In someareas, t tax bures have be maderesPonile for jint olection of gicul taxes,ste prrement, and wae fees at harvest Th townhipwatsou unitwill retain about 30 percet of feecolleon to meetlocal O&M needsand pas on the reminderto the comveyang and wholesalingentities, includin the YRCC.In turn,thee conveysmcingand wholesing eities wll retainshaes uic to mee systemO&M needs and remk the remadr to bWgerlvel waterresource units to meet rspecive Coss. 45. Althoughwe fe levelshave Increased dramatically in recentyeas, In many are theqsti acou for lessta SOpecent of all waersupply costs. At pr evena, the hiest basn waterfees (n the lowerreach provinces) a less than4 perent of all farm productn andlabor cos. Waterfee ca contn to be rased, bot to meetmore of the neglectdO&M needs as wel as to reflectth erodingeff2cts of inaton Hower, recent provinal eperen withrapidly dedling raesof collecdonaftR rate increases suggest the difficule likdy to be faced.

D. INfTrIMONALSiWOT 46. Iprgto Designand Resch. Tbedevdopment of Irigationon the Ydlow Rivers beingaddressed by nationaland bashido researchprogm ad by provi reseach nstitutesand unvesie. At the natona lvd, the Academyof WaterRorc and

A/ Sowe=Waog YI , H Z l umo, Nov.15, 1991. - 167-

HydroelecicSciences, administe by MWR,bas responsibilityfo waterresourc research, plannng and gradu traiig. Also at tihenDondal lvel, the Pam IrrigationResearch Insttt (CAAS),the nsdtuteof Soil Scenes (CAS),the Isdtute of Geogrhy (CAS),th ComprehesiveSurvey of NaturalResources (CAS) the Instute of Deflon and Samnology(CAS), the Insti of RemotoSening (CAS),and the Big nsttut of Ewironmen Protection MUR), are engaged In research concomed with water resource developmenton theYellow River. lheir rearch programs clude,respecty: Irigation desi andctop water consumption, ameliortion of salinityand deeti n atd waterdng techologies,water balan, wat t andsoi motre content,soil and wat conservation on the LoessPlateau, destificaton and glaciou ptoblems, mote nsig and the cotOl of sedimentand desertficaton, and water pridcg. 47. However,the key design and rearch unitfor all YellowRiv wat source workithe R _coc, Plaing andDesig Institute(IPDI) of theYRCC. nhoRPDI has ongoingresearch effots on bai widesmulation moddling, esuy contl, reservolropraing rules, sedim modellingand rguation, flood and ice un ontol, sol ad wat conservatio, wat pring, wat quality,groundwater developnt and irrigationdasig d planing. 48. ho basinprovinces have dsrong nstuona spport in prarto ad excton of waterres projes. Eachprovince has its ownSure ad Desg Instit underthe ProvincidWRB. 'Thee situttesare fullystaffed wlh profssona and technicalstaff. Researchon irrigationtechnies, cropwater _ ad age nods ofd Wm of cropsand soils are also being carried out by variousinstuates ad stationsIn eadhpov . in the upp reachprwvices of Qiugal andGansu, work lmphsie the developmentof hydropowerand irrigation desig for populao rsettleme In t allwuvi Nin andInner Mongolia Plins, resach workIs ongoingconning opdmalIigaon duties,salinity, drainge, and water transfers for pulbtin resettlemet In themiddle reaches, researchhas conced itslf withsoil ad waer consvaion on theLoess Plateu andwith wr shortageson downstreamreaches of thehgly deveopedFen andWei River valleys. In thelower reach provinces, Henan and Shandog, res isfocu on wor-saing irrigation ebnques,and the treatment and disposd of snd andsit amulatedin thesilt retentio basins usedto divertYellow Rhi water. 49. Baic rseach for riton anddraina In the basa is conideredadequat. However,there i a needto expandreseach to cov the opeatoand of irrited are, irraion system layout, and optimizationto Ipov irrigation systemefficcy and groundwar devdopmen Researchfunds are limitd and eume i inadequa and obsolete. Likaes betw rearch isttuton wiDt provincs pr iaequ to coordinatereseac and results. 50. A cu al pt Service. Lead onsity for agrcubturl support services withrespective Agriclturo, Science and Tecno , Fam m ization,ad EducationBureaus of te Ministryof Agrcl (MOA). Tho Chine Academyof Agricultu Scinces,under fth MOABureau of Sciencead T oloy, is rponsble for agictu earch,planing ad graduatetrdng at th ona levd. he Gald Staons of Agiduura Etni, Soilsand Ferdlizers,Seeds, and Crop P on are at to the Bureau of Agriluro. Theoitiuonal arrmet at the provinicial,prefeca aod county levesmodel tis nationlpate. l68a A

Si. Agcultual Resecrch. Agicral productionon the YelowRier basn i addressedby onal nd provinil resach programs.At thenational levd, the Agicald EconomicsResearc Instit andthe Farm Inrigatio Resech Instut bothCAAS endtis, and a numberof CASeies, includig the Institt of Genetics,a conducg appliod reearch on spciflc YelowRiver productn problem. At the pvincal level,provincial researchistitutes ad agrctural univesitiesa engagedIn aiclural researchat eXPE_onwskes. 52. As a rut of ths r ch, technlogieshave been dOVeoped to Improvesoils factedby sainiys,to overcomecntint Onlow ad meium Yildig lands,tO effectveY applyfrtdlizers and hicas and IPM for majorpest and disees, and to produce improvedor tespedfc varWes (hybridrices and cotton,heat restat whelsm,and kmst resistantwheats). As with Irgato programs,research coordination nd managmt is weak, andthe Is littloeevidenc of a multidisciplinaryteam approah to problemsolving. In most Istacs, frmallnka arelacking among resch,educadti, and extension. As part of the ongoingreform, rearch bsttio ave entere intocommercia contracs with producton uni to slve problems,but manyresearch Insthutions continue to be plaguedby dsrtg of operatingtands, experiencedtechnical staff, acilitiesand eqipment. Systemsfor 4n II _I Mtresearch rsults andproblems encounted by armersneed to be strengthened. 53. Etesn. The ariultural tsion systemis rrented at the nationalevd by tih Nat ExtensionCentr (NATEC),under the MOA. NATECi reble fr icul alextension policy guidelines and the overail planig, n resourceaoc andmonitodg andevaluation. At the pvia andlower leVels, the Bureauscoordinbat the exoesionprogram. Ihe focalpoint of thesystem is the county ExtesionCtr (CATEC),which combine the svi of soiltsng, se producto and plproteion aswell as directingthe work of theagrotechnca extension stios (ATES)at thetownsp lved. Mostof thebasin countes have an etenion sstem in place, hower, newo in many areas stillsuffer from shortagesof experiencedstaff and staff aini, bai facilitesand ension equ nt, trap veicles, andof opag fnuds. A mzor bIequaq in non is the lackof adqua seicOs for women,the pimarY produces of smaDllvtock and certin crp. S4. SeedPiroductio and Supply.Although imprwoved seeds ar partlyresponsible for the recentincrea in icuitua productvity,fom m ism of sed devopmnt, producto and disbution are inadequat. Provinci seed companies,with branchesat prefectral d ountylevels, are unable to providefarmers with adquate mouts of certified seeds. his becau te copoaes lackproceing capability,stoage spaco, quaity control, trao workin capital,and thed staffand management. the shortage of certifiedseeds has hac ts bggestimpact on cornproduction. 55. AgrI al Credit.The Agricultural Bk of China(ABC) h lat pvider of hxtituonl crdt to the sector. bt prvides fimdsthrough a nationalbranch network etedn to th countyand townp levlmad someS9,000 nradcredt cooperativesat and beowtownshp levels. ABs resoucesare obtaind from deposits, loans, profit andthe statse budSeLThe bulk of ABC'sportflio (about 65 percent)is ded to commercialactivities such as thepuhse of agrulturadproducdon, 30 percenfinances agricltural pducon, andte rmader es toD Uo ustryand other sectors. ABC charges int awordingto thelangth -169- ,

of tbe tpaymentpWWAod.g/ Unortaty, the maximumloa prvied by ABCis smal andfarers are ctedto coverup to 60 percentof the valueof the lnvemen Thi unduly lfit theaccessibility of creditto the low andmedium Inome famers on the YellowRiver bask..

4 On April 15, 1990,ABC loweredone-year loan Interestrats fom 11.3pct to 10.1percent and S-year loan restrats from19.3 percent to 18.0percent. At prest as of inflaion,these a positivereal ratesof IteresL - 170 - ANg3

Table 1: TYu.ovRUv *SzI PoPmATUou1987 Nopul4tio (allUons)

Total Agric, & Non- Rural Agric. Region pop. herdomen agric. lab lab

Total 126053 10412 21641 44.451 35.232 1 0.381 0.312 0.069 0.127 0.055 2 7.860 5.584 2.276 2.295 1.958 3k 5.805 4.555 1.250 1.925 1.551 3B 6.123 3.630 2.493 1.564 1.403 4 8.816 7.756 1.060 2.831 2.389 SA 12,046 10.250 1.796 4.242 3.107 5 26.950 22.012 4.938 9.593 7.266 6 10.573 9.749 0.824 4.170 2.978 7A 15.647 12.826 2.821 5.337 4.620 71 31.850 27.737 4.113 12.367 9.905

Total 126.053 104,41Z, 21.641 44,J50 15.2322 Qinghai 3.450 2.547 0.904 0.933 0.827 Sichuan 0.069 0.056 0.013 0.027 0.026 Gansu 14.499 12.088 2.411 5.015 3.882 Uingzia 4.366 3.376 0.991 1.331 1.128 InnerMongolia 6.566 4.018 2.548 1.720 1.536 Shauzi 15.670 13.698 1.973 5.437 3.912 Sheasmi 22.711 18.029 4.682 8.017 6.190 Hean 24.635 20.946 3.689 8.885 7.217 Shandoug 34.087 29.656 4.430 13.087 10.514

Sourcest CC, 1991,Yollow River BasinUtilization Current Situation (1987).

* as lBa 081 t M stse ua AtUdso si7 os m i ou t AM am ot 100 -JmAM UI.wt11;u2 _; we" Sd~~~~~~04 ^.70408 58U#h 040st.1 0X.7 0. .4*"s IA In $. . 1 11.75 47. 24 ffl, :1.4 0.06 0.00 0.00 196.98 55 7.W 66.5 105.68 * 6j,475 2.248 4.9) O." 14. 0.57 85 2.97 , 10, 1.07 0.94 2.81 2.1 4 181.47 1.74 5."69 8.1 S1.6 15,01 1,410 0 0.00 0.00 SA 76.6 24.8 16.11 5." 16." 5.7 1.46 se 207.16k 86.56 46.00 46.86 15.840 .17 aj SC2S8I13 0.91 0.6 3.01 6 61tS.46 " 14.07" Hes. 6.48 12. 10.09 967 , 0'5 0.51 1.0, 0.95 07 1:64 :5 44216: .0:73. t" 8 .St1.8353 6.85 $t5.25 t$6430 6.168 186.88At4.S15.6 U*.ts48.08 1416 0..17 .4 89.08 1750 11.58 8.26 3.57 18.07

11.06:47 S.is 0.46 0 0 ~~~0.00 0.00 0.00 ;630.55U.4 106.470wg36it 5a1,76056 10.37.eo 0.130. 0.14.o 0.000.0 0mibiv:~~ or 216.97.1 56."11.66 2.24. 108.1-. 19 iU$15.50 U 016*8 alt° 2" 8 1 8o 8o

6hi lfl: ". n.u 147 0.00 62,672 1,967 5.04 3.46 1.23 0.37 ffi Sl Mu a U.U po " ""49 t":4$10& a,wP$ g: c 8:X o0 o.0e 1°° nbz 91. n.D"1 lot B 4oo0 8U t.13 9.t 2.1 .7." 68kr 4 2el.4.49 9.83 i.U *3. 15.24 9.03 26.07 19.97

8.,.. 398.O 1991. l.33 UV" 3.44* uSU4ahIm 08ws44 8S2u6140 (1987). - 171 - 3

Tale 3s Tom luv 8a. Aw=u L 1 Yt OVwr 1987 Apicltaal wtt (ullUoa ygw)

Ago Per cP. ar cap. Total rald Output Output .utLIt .allE!U ...... Zst kg/ Crirreat 1980 Curet 1980 Curmt 1980 ksI price, legion person person price price prie, price, prie.

aML lu VA 49ill 912ZSs 25111 ILIE 2S.28 I4 76 93 272 214 21 17 2 1 1 119 77 2 194 273 2,011 1,414 1,117 807 299 381 1,831 1,251 1,256 879 54 39 3A 65 55 38 187 316 2,228 1,480 1,416 1,01S 221 251 2,985 2,056 1,911 1,329 204 191 4 166 109 St 307 360 3,680 2,654 2,783 2,057 308 377 353 250 253 190 29 16 58 147 6 316 345 3,496 2,544 2,179 1,568 228 369 451 6,543 4,653 4,952 3,581 212 69 ?A 664 327 78 419 481 18,538 13,026 13,624 9,929 DSota X24 1in 49.890 93S127 2111 25.2-88 tLOA 1.279 QiE^A1 253 350 1,207 854 579 432 64 42 "95 117 59 49 4 3 1 0 Sichus 221 158 Genes 191 2I0 3,683 2,577 2,233 1,544 haflu 318 412 1,365 924 957 670 41 32 190 S10 2,412 1,596 1,495 1,068 84 71 lepr N=VUOli 177 Shead 292 335 4,552 3,264 3,312 2,444 258 Sbsael. 321 404 7,161 5,069 5,072 3,569 304 255 34S 410 9,646 6,896 6,906 4,964 401 206 Reoo 682 338 Shandoeg 413 475 19,605 13,896 14,553 10,594 sonrces YBC, 1991, Yellow liver Bats UtcilZatic Currest Stuation (1987). Tb1le 4. zu w lr=20m AUML5Ua OGOSSVAsIM1 Olu 1987

$gricultural :9n1C1tU)8 OU*>Ut "d111Per Capita Z-tVe8tOCz 814d11gelia4P Ammolon^CY Outout (YuTan currsot 1980 Custeat 1980 Cusrret 1980 current 1980 prlce. Region price price. price, price, price price. Prices

XasaL ~~iAfZ LII LII kLl LaI M l il 234 16S 16 10 0 0 872 684 1 253 2 S 394 16 136 2 1 360 412 244 91 83 16 6 402 275 3M 408 38 597 295 135 110 1S S 614 577 325 1SS 164 107 47 385 265 4 259 5 577 349 140 135 13 4 359 60 35 10 9 2 1 332 236 53 261 6 616 384 462 440 11 5 359 7A 87O 532 479 444 30 11 510 363 73 3,105 1,711 1,011 998 133 61 668 470 Totol 9bO76 kAM 9.2l082 1 1% mAi 440 3 124 7 1 0 474 336 MSAgMMA 873 8es-u f 47 42 7 3 0 0 1,050 964 629 261 245 3 1 305 213 CG e 274 hlngrie 302 176 48 41 17 6 404 669 334 I 119 16 6 600 398 nner sugoli 208 Shaeer 601 481 169 158 13 4 290 1,228 735 540 503 17 7 315 223 Ibeei 329 lanou 1,371 840 928 873 41 1S 461 469 bandoag 3,255 1,795 1,080 1,062 235 106 668

Scouc"WeSBCC 1991, Yellow Ulver Basin Utilisation Current Situation (1987). - 172 - AMtIIL

0niu WAeet 211. Otbe: Urns @reu 0r.iU sons Seet Veet Sum Colms cmi so" at" RI"e goom Al": Sip uutil AM. output YIeld Ax"e Ottput 15*1 AMn output viold Anea Ragln 1,OcoOha 1.0001v fibit 1.00b. 1,000? 1u 'mba ItooOOOTba1,000?j .Obe 1.000?v fIb.. 1.OObhe

i2ml SN 40.Adif1. 2 HMB WA IL 4-J30~ Jm JU L4 LJ203 a 675 1.524 3.5 373 905 2.6 t0 40 3.o 9 3h us1 1.733, 3.0 as1 495 2.0 66 S10 4.6 54 449 604 405 so 740 1.147 1.5 Si? 543 2.0 So 552 5.9 0 1 4.1 406 4 15333 1.048 1.3 381 471 1.6 18" 530 3.8 S 44 .7 1.058 S& 1,30 3,495 3.5 iss 1,487 3.5 354 449 5.4 4 34 5.5 488 58 SIM3 8,397 2.2 1.945 4.105 2.5 714 2.444 5.4 14 44 4.8 1,055 4 III0" 5.41 2.6 575 1.711 3.0 in3 1,04" .2 7 37 5.1 299 78 1.401 S.7g05.3 946 5.409 5.5 542 1.214 5.4 S1 288 5.4 445 72 5.406 15.554 5.6 1,7m 4.455 S.J 1,055 4.87 4.7 14 75 5.4 447 999143a 9 4m E '. Omane 2.050 3.78 1.4 98 1,463 1.5 12n 550 2.6 2it 4.4 904 IUSapl 43 Its"6 3.0 147 444 1.9 GS 391 4.6 53 459 4.5 no0 Not. 807 1,246 1.5 288 580 3.0 4a 549 5.6 0 1 4.7 456 8holm 3,144 4.585 231 S"7 3054 2.5 334 1,089 3.5 4 24 5.4 928 Sbead SO.05 7,290 2.4 1,584 3.42 3.5 489 2,547 3.7 Is 76 4.8 946 sumn 3,754 8,548 5.1 1,444 4443 53.4 604 2.057 3.4 so 534 5.4 444 9b.mimu SIM5 14.091 5.7 1,90 4,753 5.5 1.103 5.149 4.7 19 109 5.7 i53

Source. UN,0 1001. AUYalAsRVe Deals OtUstllael Currnt Situatio (1987).

GUM3GROW Liestock Cotton 0l14.. $ga Otber L.ae SMelu son Cotto Cotton own. cOUee olised Sam sgaw $ua so" Liv. Live- Subtotal hr. Output no"1 As". utP"t 121 hAx" Output YUiel Ate" stock stock S1mallLbk. RegIoR 1,000 be 1,000? TAMs 1.000 a100?fbe TW 1,000oo be 1,000 1Tbm 1,000 be 10'4 (VA"e) (PIg 10'4 b4

2 GS 100 1.10 1 16 14.8 6 366 5)9 555 894 3A. 0 a 0.8 91 4 0.7 9 S24 34S 8 94 435 135 5S" a3 143 289 2.0 54 1099 S0.3 1s 79 680 88 74 4 06 7 0.9 l93 110 0.6 0 5 11.9 1t 120 527 130 657 S& 97 78 0.8 109 135 1.1 1 15 35.9 10 154 1I3 127 S99 so 57 55 1.0 505 239 1.0 S 35 7.5 4 547 588 419 804 6 38 17 0.4 59 70 1.3 0 1 35.3 55 124 77 198 375 ?A a37 300 0.8 187 M1 1.7 1 55 58.9 7 15 251 331 453 73 951 9"5 1.0 151 544 .3. 0 0 5.1 43 53 955 $55 1.485

0 00.7 0a 6 54 1 57 Gume 0 0a 0.8 306 151 0.7 2 52 14.5 s9 377 611 531 952 v1vvla 17? 4 0.6 9 a17 54.9 S 78. 349 61 410 Ems: Us.. 154 So7 1.9 36 1.105 50.) 1s 88 801 94 597 Sterna Go 78 0.8 239 180 0.8 1 is 31.6 I to0 516 177 495 Ibsama 58 S5, 1.0 SOS 33 1.1 S 14 5.9 58 309 590 550 710 sunm a"5 218 0.8 228 544 1.4 1 54 5e.3 45 359 389 588 478 ftembia 1,015 1.057 1.0 145 545 Sol 0 0 5.1 43 551 978 545 1,54) suooes 1100 1091, Ye1.UMRiver Deals UtWset.en CrNt Sisutio. (1987). - 173 -

Table6: Len-mm Cum.B TusAw Izvu lo&amouo

1919 1949 1979 Reaches Irrig. Water Irrisg.Water Irrig. Water area conOn.area conen A. I area conea Ass S (wmu) (boa) (mu) (bem) runoff (mu) (bor) runoff above Lanzhou 0.436 0.25 0.928 0.54 1.7 0.173 1.73 5.4 above Nekou:heng 3.785 3.75 6.180 6.25 20.0 19.222 10.80 34.5 above Longrmn 3.785 3.75 6.303 6.30 16.3 20.920 11.22 29.1 above Sanuenxia 3.785 3.75 9.174 7.19 14.4 41.535 16.05 32.0 above iuayuankou4.322 3.96 9.773 7.42 13.3 44.703 17.27 30.8 above Lijing 4.322 3.96 9.773 7.42 13.3 55.526 27.10 46.7

Notes The Irrigated area does not includewell irrigatedarea.

1.51l 1* 131W 319W 31V33 103 u U0_ilu Am s7 0 191019s80

1~~~dl U .00elzdS.tw WlA Dtm S__(0^_

1970 4.51 S." 8.84 9.69 1.S3 81.88 1u.0 147.0 87.0 188.0 21.4 586.4 1971 12.75 4 a 9.1 1.7 89.74 101.8 287.4 7.0 9.9 *7.5 1M. 1972 19.87 8.7$ 10.74 14.U7 8.75 54.88 172.0 2.O 1.0 S47.0 SO.0 849.0 1978 1.44 42* U14 15.01 5.09 47.48 434.8 *00.0 407.0 S80.0 45.8 1,7. 1974 8.2 8.87 18.1 9.9 2.04 40.80 90.3 3.0 551.0 a.7 17.0 1,U7-.0 197$ 1.7 4.91 8.9$ 8.89 2.74 2.7 1,02.0 1974 13.73 9.40 11.9 18.25 2." 50.74 1.0 33.2 815.5 281.1 *2.5 912.3 117n 14.78 9.17 18.19 18.84 2.5 643.4 437.2 85.0 541.0 M5. 40.9 1,12.8 1978 11S.9 10.85 12.17 13.49 0.81 49.54 227.1 370.0 335.0 29.2 220 1,24S.3 1970 11. 10S2 4.00 28.14 1.90 45.8 220.0 189.0 30.0 230.0 20.0 1,00.0 Averag In 70. 12.8 10.85 10.85 13.1 2.3 41.9 805.44 87.5 29.5 251.s 30. 1,107.0 ku.es Jt , 1"91. - 174 - MM 3

Table 8s Zulm hAm, eURu1N1 u 8uAuU_ 1004 D

no.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~of_ 30. 01 Int. pzoj. 1980 1981 1962 1983 1964 1985 1986 1987 198 1989 Avon"a

I 30.72 34.14 6.48 72 71.84 51.23 81.44 75.81 112.34 121.93 n7. 2 36.86 40.97 91.78 86.44 86.21 61.8 97.73 90.97 134.8 146.32 87.36 3 19.39 21.55 48.28 45.47 45.35 32.34 51.41 47.85 7.91 76.97 45.95 4 33.79 37.56 84.13 79.24 79.02 56.35 89.58 83.39 123.57 134.12 80.08 5 14.59 16.22 36.33 34.22 34.12 24.34 38.68 36.01 53.36 57.92 34.58 6 20.16 22.41 50.19 47.27 47.14 33.62 53.44 49.75 73.72 80.01 47.77 7 20.16 22.41 50.19 47.27 47.14 33.62 53.44 49.75 73.72 80.01 47.7 a 16.1o 17.92 40.15 37.82 37.71 26.9 42.76 39.6 58.9 64.01 38.22 Sub-total In oses Pro. 192 213.4 478 450.2 449 320.2 509 473.8 t02.1 72.06 454*98

9 19.4 21.1 25.91 23 34 37.84 3X.67 35.48 35.21 44.97 31.36 10 2.74 2.98 3.66 3.25 4.81 5.35 5.19 5.02 4.98 6.36 4.43 11 3.33 3.62 3.45 3.95 5.84 6.5 6.3 6.09 6.05 7.72 5.38 12 1.96 2.13 2.62 2.32 3.43 3.82 3.7 3.58 3.56 4.54 3.17 13 0.59 0.64 0.T8 0.7 1.03 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.07 1.36 0.95 14 0.74 0.8 0.98 0.87 1.25 1.43 1.39 1.34 1.33 1.7 1.19 15 1.84 2 2.46 2.18 3.23 3.59 3.48 3.37 3.34 4.27 2.98 16 1.46 1.59 1.95 1.73 2.56 2.85 2.76 2.67 2.AS 3.38 2.36 17 6.06 7.46 9.16 8.13 12.02 13.38 12.96 12.54 12.45 15.9 11.09 is 27.44 29.85 36.64 32.54 4S.08 53.51 51.06 50.18 49.79 63.6 44.35 29 9.7 10.55 12.96 11.5 17 18.9 18.33 17.74 17.61 22.49 15.68 30 2.16 2.34 2.88 2.56 3.78 4.2 4.07 3.94 3.91 5 3.48 31 3.06 3.32 4.08 3.63 5.36 5.96 5.78 5.59 5.55 7.09 4.94 32 10.39 11.3 13.87 12.32 18.2 20.26 19.63 19 18.85 24.08 1t." 33 3.72 4.05 4.97 4.42 6.52 7.26 7.04 6.81 6.76 8.63 6.02 34 2.45 2.66 3.27 2.9 4.29 4.78 4.63 4.48 4.45 5.68 3.96 Sub-t-ta in Jis" Pro. 98 106.6 130.87 116.2 171.7 191.1 185.2 179.2 177.84 227.14 158.38

i9 322 264.04 313.72 340.4 552.46 335.8 381.71 391.46 372.6 411.7 368.59 20 28 22.96 27.28 29.6 48.04 29.2 33.19 34.04 32.4 35.8 32.05 Sub-total in laocbm* ft.350 287 341 370 600.5 365 414.9 425.5 405 447.5 400.64

21 236.88 288.54 361.56 362.82 368.61 342.28 373.59 385.37 371.7 401.44 349.3 22 7.14 8.7 10.9 10.94 11.12 10.32 11.27 11.62 11.21 12.1 10.53 23 0.23 0.27 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.33 0.36 0.37 0.35 0.38 0.33 24 0.75 0.92 1.15 1.15 1.17 1.09 1.19 1*22 1.18 1.27 1.11 25 0.75 0.92 1.15 1.15 1.17 1.09 3.19 1.22 1.18 1.27 1.11 26 126.34 153.S9 192.83 193.5 196.59 182.35 19M.25 205.53 198.24 214.1 186.3 27 1.8 2.29 2.7 2.8 2.92 2.72 2.P6 3.06 2.93 3.19 2.77 28 1.5 1.83 2.3 2.3 2.34 2.17 2.37 2.*45 2.36 2.55 2.22 - 175 -

Table 8t (ooat.d)

30. of tint. proj. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Averot8

Sub-totol La Desbots PM. 376 458 573.9 575.9 585.1 543.3 593 611.7 590 637.2 554.45

35 47.09 48.71 71.78 57.72 85.38 76.88 82.45 87.3 90.75 106.06 75.41 36 2.04 2.11 3.1 2.5 3.69 3.33 3.57 3.78 3.93 4.59 3,26 37 9.06 9.37 13.8 11.1 16.4 14.78 15.86 16.79 17.45 20.4 14.5 38 3.62 3.75 5.52 4.44 6.57 5.91 6.34 6 72 6.98 8.16 5.8 39 12 12.41 18.29 14.71 21.76 19.59 21 22.24 23.12 27.02 19.22 40 5.89 6.09 8.97 7.22 10.67 9.61 10.3 10.91 11.34 13.26 9.43 41 32.38 33.49 49.3S 39.68 58.7 S2.85 S6.68 60.02 62.39 72.92 51.85 42 15.17 15.69 23.12 18.59 27.5 24.76 26.56 28.12 29.23 34.16 24.29 43 13.13 13.58 20.01 16.1 23.81 21.44 22*99 24.34 25.3 29.57 21.03 44 13.58 14.05 20.71 16.65 24.63 22.18 23.78 25.18 26.18 30.59 21.75 45 6.34 6.56 9.66 7.77 11.49 10.35 11.1 11.75 12.22 14.28 10.15 46 67.47 69.79 102.84 82.7 122.33 110.14 118.13 125.07 130.02 151.95 108,4 Sub-total Sn EM"udf Pro. 226.4 234.2 345.1 277.5 410.5 369.6 396.4 419.7 436.3 509.9 362.56

47 12.9 13.33 19.33 18.32 17.82 20.69 25.81 23.23 26.55 24.18 20.22 48 10.35 10.7 15.51 14.7 14.31 16.6 20.71 18.64 21.31 19.4 16.22 49 6.37 6.58 9.55 9.05 8.81 10.22 12*74 11.47 13.11 11.94 9.98 SO 1.43 1.48 2.15 2.04 1.98 2.3 2.87 2.58 2.95 2.69 2.25 51 7.96 8.23 11.93 11.31 11.01 12.77 15.93 14.34 16.39 14.93 12.48 52 39.8 41.1 59.6 56.5 55 63.8 79.6 71.7 81.9 74.6 62.4 Sub-total Sn DOauy1f4 City 79.6 82.3 119.3 113.1 110.1 117.7 159.3 143.4 163.9 49.26 124.8

Total la Shandog 1,322.0 1,381.5 1,988.2 1,902.9 2*326.9 1,916.9 2t2S7.8 2,253.3 2,482.9 2,471.8 2,057.4 notes Iiptio Project, Idicated Sn mamberss 1. lgihal 2. Yautan 3. Uushuang 4. Sunsihuac 5. Jluch.ng 6. sgup 7. che4hal 8. Do8plSn 9. Tlansan 10. Uougti 11. DoanfeOd 12. 4IAiasuI 13. Tauabuaug 14. LaotubuaDg 15. T&oqino 16. suaga 17. EujiSa 18. Tucheaus 19. VoSAm 20. Oaoho 21. Pauzhuz 22. Eazgllu 23. QIaosba g 24. Dofwo 25. VlWbuhu 26. LWjIm 27. WauSyso 28. _aemao 29. disnladu 30. Dalodim 31. Gos8mS 32. ¢edic 33. Zhaasgln 34. Xlaojlebhl 35. IojIU 36. 3u6. 37. DaMlopa 38. Doae 39. Kaokalho 40. Zhaagtaotoug 41, 8eaugu 42. Zugqsoo 43* Naai 44. Uncuji 45. Daou 46. Da7uzbang 47. ShongL 48. VlqS 49. Oosgjl 50. D _ouasa 51. Liuj aB 52. Wauphuazg soawme Jiaug8 PU, 1991 - 176 - AINX 3

Sabla 9, Vimbz Vus Faa Imnxa z SELuxs Plaaams Units 10^8 m^3

No. of lt3r. proj. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Average

1 2.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 2.0 1.6 2.0 2.8 3.22 3.15 2.74 2 2.7 5.83 3.69 3.92 3.12 1.95 2.64 3.37 3.86 3.78 3.29 3 1.4 2 1.94 2.06 1.64 1.02 1.39 1.78 2.03 1.99 1.72 4 2.48 3.51 3.38 3.6 2.86 1.78 2.42 3.09 3.54 3.46 3.01 5 1.07 1.52 1.46 1.55 1.24 0.77 1.04 1.34 1.53 1.5 1.3 6 1.4 2.1 2.02 2.15 1.7 1.06 1.44 1.84 2.11 2.07 1.79 7 1.4 2.1 2.02 2.15 1.7 1.06 1.44 1.84 2.11 2.07 1.79 8 1.2 1.68 1.61 1.72 1.36 0.85 1.15 1.48 1.69 1.65 1.44 Subtotal In Rose Pref. 14.08 19.97 19.21 20.44 16.25 10 24 13.73 17.58 20.1 19.69 17.73

9 0.8 0.96 1.26 0.88 0.56 0.88 1.33 0.86 1.18 1.96 1.07 10 0.12 0.14 0.18 0.12 0.08 0.12 0.19 0.12 0.17 0.28 0.15 11 0.12 0.16 0.22 0.15 0.1 0.15 0.23 0.15 0.2 0.34 0.18 12 0.08 0.1 0.13 0.09 0.06 0.09 0.13 0.09 0.12 0.2 0.11 13 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.01. 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.03 14 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.07 0.04 15 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.13 0.08 0.11 0.18 0.10 16 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.07 0.04 0.07 0.1 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.08 17 0.28 0.34 0.44 0.31 0.02 0.31 0.47 0.3 0.42 0.69 0.38 i8 1.14 1.36 1.78 1.25 0.79 1.25 1.89 1.22 1.67 2.77 1.51 29 0.4 0.48 0.63 0.4" 0.28 0.44 0.67 0.43 0.59 0.98 0.53 30 0.09 0.1 0.14 0.1 0.06 0.1 0.15 0.1 0.13 0.22 0.12 31 0.13 0.15 0.2 0.14 0.09 0.14 0.21 0.14 0.18 0.31 0.17 32 0.43 0.51 0.67 0.47 0.3 0.47 0.71 0.46 0.63 1.05 0.57 33 0.15 0.18 0.24 0.17 0.1 0.17 0.26 0.16 0.22 0.38 0.2 34 0.1 0.12 0.16 0.11 0.07 0.11 0.17 0.11 0.15 0.25 0.13 Subtotal In YfnanCity 4.07 4.85 6.35 4.46 2.81 4.45 6.74 4.36 5.96 9.89 5.39

19 7.87 6.72 12.15 14.06 10.25 8.71 12.21 11.38 15.94 19.57 11.87 20 0.68 0.58 1.06 1.22 0.89 0.76 1.06 0.99 1.39 1.7 1.05 Subtotal in L1aocoanProf. 8.55 7.30 13.21 15.28 11.14 9.47 13.27 12.37 17.33 21.27 12.92

21 8.27 11.14 12.6 12.18 8.4 8.06 15.21 14.33 13.78 19.34 12.33 22 0.25 0.34 0.38 0.37 0.25 0.24 0.46 0.43 0.42 0.58 0.37 23 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 24 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.04 25 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.04 26 4.41 5.94 6.72 6.49 4.48 4.3 8.11 7.64 7.35 10.31 6.58 27 0.06 0.09 0.1 0.1 0.07 0.06 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.15 0.1 28 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.1 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.08 - 177 - ANZ 3

Table 9t (contod.)

No. of 1989 £vera8e lntL. proj. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988

Subtotal In 21.87 30.70 19.57 Doshou Prof. 13.12 17.69 20.00 19.33 13.33 12.79 24.15 22.75 3.05 6.12 3.21 35 3.72 2.42 4.32 2.3 2.74 1.79 3.41 2.33 0.26 0.14 36 0.16 0.1 0.19 0.1 0.12 0.08 0.15 0.1 0.13 0.59 1.18 0.62 37 0.72 0.46 0.83 0.43 0.53 0.34 0.66 0.45 0.23 0.47 0.25 38 0.29 0.18 0.33 0.17 0.21 0.14 0.26 0.18 0.77 1.56 0.82 39 0.95 0.62 1.1 0.57 0.7 0.46 0.87 0.59 0.38 0.76 0.4 40 0.46 0.3 0.54 0.28 0.34 0.22 0.43 0.29 2.09 4.21 2.21 41 2.56 1.66 2.97 1.53 1.88 1.23 2.34 1.6 0.98 1.97 1.03 42 1.2 0.78 1.39 0.72 0.88 0.58 1.1 0.75 0.85 1.71 0.90 43 1.03 0.67 1.2 0.62 0.76 0.5 0.95 0.65 0.88 1.76 ).93 44 1.07 0.7 1.25 0.64 0.79 0.52 0.98 0.67 0.82 0.43 45 0.5 0.32 0.58 0.3 0.37 0.24 0.46 0.31 0.41 4.6 46 5.33 3.46 6.19 3.19 3.92 2.57 4.89 3.34 4.36 8.77 Subtotal tS 14.65 29.42 15.45 HuSzn1u Pref. 17.88 11.62 20.79 10.72 13.17 8.62 16.4 11.21 2.02 0.93 47 0.18 0.12 0.23 0.79 1.13 1.04 1.36 1.2 1.22 0.98 1.62 0.74 48 0.15 0.09 0.18 0.63 0.9 0.83 1.09 0.97 0.6 1 0.46 49 0.09 0.06 0.11 0.39 0.56 0.51 0.67 0.6 0.13 0.14 0.22 0.1 50 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.15 0.75 1.25 0.57 51 0.11 0.07 0.14 0.49 0.7 0.64 0.84 0.74 6.24 2.86 52 0.56 0.36 0.7 2.44 3.48 3.21 4.18 3.72 3.77 Subtotal In 7.54 12.48 5.73 DonVUlg City 1.13 0.72 1.40 4.87 6.96 6.42 8.37 7.44

Total in 123.45 76.18 Sbaudono 58.83 62.15 80.96 75.10 63.66 51.89 82.66 75.71 87.44

Sources Jiaug PIUg 1991. (119714090) Table 10, 71f3&10Uunin nYUX YUB D3 _a hUb libO 129318

eom a otw 2TL., 1t Bom 1 b~raptTOT SdrWAm 0 BMOS OSL oni 01 fa *eem

1.U 0.14 2.96 1*7 1.77 3.97 4.68 I.0% 423 541 1971 1.61 7.05 .64 .6 63 700 10,615 697 1972 2.1 64 16 .4 027 4.41 $.6s 2.6 Sss*s 17.09 t 0. .97 00 5.06 2.18 2.46 76 7.24 71g 171 s 0.05 4.40 3.1 W.S 4.06 6.81 696 50 4U1 1974 3.91 12.37 16.3 4.47 990 520 S29 4.6 10.2 14.8 *.5 0.2 .68 3.9 4.59 S.36 7.87 1975 0.52 - .5 4.47 5.07 9.54 $82 s49 54 17t? 67 9.35 16.91 5.47 10.06 69 370 47 197" .91 17.1 a 6.7 0.0 6.7 3.3 s.n 6.35 5.3 0.0 5.9 1.9 4.5 5.3 9O.6 769 426 546 197" 5.9 12.4 18.0 4.56 5.S 3.27 6.10 9.15 56S 613 S69 1979 5.i1.0 150 8.99 0.56 9.1 764 44 (401) 229 190 4.27 11.25 17.39 4 .7s 0.1 4.4 *4.7S.42 <.S4. S 1.26 6.36 4.16 4.) 4 10.28 68 4544) 5si 1981 .91 1S.6 19.73 4.6 2.6 .09 6.1 10.94 4784 4 40(06)7 421 1961 4.06 19.44 25.94 6.9 0.66 7.81 3.1 3.07 594(31) 415 4.6 19.0) 52.72 S.2 0.38 3.9 .14 3.3 ( 7.31(6.1 10.1 5513467 1962 0.26 6.97 1.98 .1.9 6.36(.4 8.95 51St2 2 S(t) 516 1964 5.01 23.27 20.S0 6.71 7.74 5a55(192 7 S"2 1965 4.S9 I U 127 4.66 0.05 4.91 2.82 2.2. I aI*331.)62701 .6 11.11 3534 2630 9 196 S.5 25.58 28.1It 5

Table 11t hizC wamno or zmoxomz ,aojuos 2J unA LO. =a MnMof TR no. IrT. project Location Type Design Irrigation area discharge Design Effective in cms In 10^3ha

A a C D 3 P a

1 Betao InmerMon. Grav. 620 733.3 431.7 2 Qingtongna Ningxia Grav. 320 338 182.7 3 Baojtxia Shasaxi Grav. 95 197.7 195.6 4 Jinghuiqu Sbsanxl Grav. 46 90.3 87.3 5 Fenhe Shanxi Grav. 91 87.9 87.9 6 Yineng InnerMon. Grav. 75 74.2 31.8 7 Luohuiqu Shaanxi Grav. 18 51.7 49.6

Net Lift (m) Total 1,066.6

8 Dengkou InnerMon. 4 58.4 56.4 9 Tuiajiequ InnerMon. S 17.1 21.3 10 Madibso InnerMon. 34.9 36 36.4 (4 stages) 11 Hasuhat InnerMon. 20.2 27.65 20.9 (2 stages) 12 JAntadchuan Gansu 444.64 13.16 20.3 (11 stages) 13 Jinghui Gansu 534 12 20 (17 stages) 14 Sanjiaocheg Gansu 512 8 16.3 (13 stages) i5 Heping Gansu 439 1.4 1.3 (8 stage.) 16 licha Gansu 582 5.6 13.3 (12 stages) 17 Gongnongqu Gansu 322 3.14 3.7 (9 stage.) 18 Klin Gansu 685 0.9 2 (10 stages) 19 Zhongquan Ganou 412.5 1.68 2.5 (14 stages) 20 Dashagou Gansu 597 1.4 2.7 (9 stage.) 21 Ieifangtai C.an. 151 1 0.8 (3 stages) 22 Iongxianzi Gansu 375 1.1 1.4 (5 stages) 23 Dszhaizi Gansu 234 0.65 0.7 (4 stages) 24 Zianyuan Gansu 302.4 0.6 0.7 (5 stages) 25 Sanyuan Caonsu 235.4 1.2 1.7 (4 stages) 26 Xlpint Canou 583(7stages) 0.32 0.7 27 Iinzia 342.7 20 33.3 (11 stages) - 179 -

Tabl1 11 (cont'd).

A a C D E J G

28 Iaushaut auzNingxia 135.4 6.5 1 (3 stages) 29 J±amakou Shanxi 110 9.5 26.7 (3 stages) 30 Payudu u 355.5 8 12 (7 stages) 31 Xifanab.nmd 254.4 5.4 17.9 (S stages) 32 Xllofoe Shanxi 63.4 6 13.3 (2 stages) 33 oenuan Shaux1151.93 4.5 15.2 (6 stages) 34 ?uaebhang Shauzl 217.3 1.33 2.S (5 stages) 35 Kisoliaug Sbhas1 203 1.45 2 (4 stages) 36 Chbngle Shauxi 253 1.0 1.3 (5 stages) 37 Wenjlng Sha=zd 196.4 1.75 2.7 (4 stages) 38 Baojilua ShbaznI 10-54 74.5 33.3 39 J±aokou Sheaxu 86 37 84 (6 stages) 40 Jiangltu Shanzw 109.8 1.1 2.1 41 T±ansbha Shandong 67.5 24 21.1 Total 469.5

SourcesJian Pugs, 1991 - 10 - 3

Table 12N BSon uvuauua w zzomu NIcm s MOa Am OVAUUS P.I

Proawice no. project tjpe of cityor design dolp completed wptg actual 1986 inttke county flow area ar" area mount area cm 1t000S 0000m 10000M MU cum 100On

A I C D 3 P 0 a I J K

Henas I Wang- 2 huims sate Usuesin 35 14.75 6 83.78 7.5 2 Ehapuen- kn gsate Zhendzou 47 26 8.62 59.3 10.7 3 sate ZhenMS 32.4 27.4 25.52 9.02 142.37 9.1 shat sate Zhnms 55 23.02 10.62 104.33 6.9 5 Zbsokou sate Zknua 200 228 17.7 133.94 6 Elelgan- hon Sate Kaifeug S0 18.44 3.87 8.8 197.68 10.S 7 L _yan oen gSate Kafeng 40 18.72 4.81 10.3 75.41 12.5 8 lanyt- zhsl Sate Lankao 300 173.79 25.8 13.42 6.8 9 stad- quan gate Wdhsi 10 10 3.5 1.5 4.74 3.5 1O VuVIA sate ikahl 25 36 13.8 84.64 12.54 11 =snsung sate WVshl 100 118.3 50 6.5 569.78 58.85 12 D4on gate luanyang 30 21.8 1.58 101.72 11.5 13 Bandoug- shueng gate Tuanyan6 40 34.2 18.9 8.64 208.19 25 14 linnglu- -hu gate Tuayag 30 35.6 1.01 5.92 197.43 1S 15 Dagoom gate le8qs 280 30.9 16.4 6 132.84 21 16 Kin- s-hang gate lengqln 20 16.5 2 0.5 15.82 2.6 17 Shitou- _h18n gato CbaCayuas 20 1S 6.38 4.2 32.29 6.5 1: gate Obagynan 10 10 3.2 1.35 33.91 6.1 it QWucu gate oya 44 2 185.07 44.7 20 gauxleo- di gate PNyang S0 46 9 158.65 41.8 21 1ats- 21 Wng culvert Puyang 6 7 22 Pe gate laemdea S0 25.8 10 61.99 17.8 23 sipbon Pgulen 3 9.7 2 29.82 7 24 1 culvert langiLEn 7 7.4 14 5.1 25 Mbansuanggate Talque 15 13.5 1.5 17.85 4.5 26 ganilgate Taque 13.5 8.5 6.87 5,2 27 Sunkn siphon Talquen 14.2 10.5 9.3 8 Total inenBo 1583.1 1030.8 188.51 118.16 2675.14 360.69 Shandong 1 Iahal. saet sowdg50 S8 3 11 273.16 25 2 Yaten gate DonsSog 50 45.5 - 39 85.24 38.9 3 8ate BashBusauung 80 24 5.2 22 229.61 8.5 4 OneS.- shuang gate Tueanhen S0 41.0 3 25 302.98 29 S JAuchen gte Tuenehen 50 18 1.5 9 91.81 14.4 6 Sge gate tuneebo 15 25 10 10 223.45 26.3 7 Chahual gate Llanghan 30 25 1S 22 121 76 23.2 8 - gDngate h8n 4 20 2 30.82 5.7 ha 9 Tienoan p.st. ftngyius 24 31.7 10 28.02 6 10, Hogq p.et. 45 4.5 3 4.43 2 11 Donifeng p.6to Cangqsia 6 5.5 3 5.83 1.5 12 seIilenSgate Jinan 50 3.27 2*3 48.81 13 ansag gate Jinan 10 1 54.34 3 14 ao- uhneng gsate .7.. 10 1.2 6.07 1.3 15 Tota"o sifpot Jia 7 3 17.36 2.2 16 Uuaae shon JInm 7.2 2.39 1.65 12.09 1.6 17 N.jLen sate haagQu 20 11.3 5 18 TSchenul gate 6.5 45 4.5 28.56 19 welean gate Dong-er 240 432 1276.32 389 20 Goohon gate Dong-or 25 37.2 51.83 26 21 Pang- abunng gate Qum. 150 500 1583.79 370 - 181 - h1DJ

Table 12t (eout'd).

A a C D B a I I J K

22 ling4a gate QIhe 15 1 6.5 90.36 23 Q5*O. gAhul¢g slphm Qthe 2.5 O's 24 ,ofiroi gate Qkhe 10 2 40.32 25 Wang- lukasg slpboa Clh8 2 1.2 0.38 26 Lijisan gate Qihe 100 266 693.6 200 27 Vaggya e1pbhon Qihe 4 4 2.49 28 Dava3- 2in. GphO= QIh 4 3 18.33 29 RIng- jiada gate J±yang 75 15.8 422.16 140 30 UDaiodla, iphon Jilag 2.2 3.5 2.12 31 0oujRg siphon .Jlyau 5 5 7.05 32 se&La«8ate Jiyag 10 16.9 88.31 33 ZhangXzasG iphon Jlyan 3.6 6 22.52 34 lao7- ULeshL slphon Jlyang 2 4 13.83 35 Bo1Llu lulaIg=gte 75 118 60 449.91 109.6 36 Guaren phbon alaDing 4 5 14.17 4.4 37 sailonguangate EhluSu 22 22.7 93.72 15 38 Deat gate ladalag 5 9 47.8 9.5 39 isao- kahe gate Binshou 25 S0 107.57 32.9 40 hang saloton sgate Blushou. 15 15 9 29.75 8 41 Ehngduag gate Ilnshoa 60 81 352.81 31.5 42 Zhangqlao gate Zo-plng 35 38 106.95 18.7 43 EanaiL gate Cacqing 27.8 32.7 15 74.18 20 44 LIUcuCja gate Geoqi°8 37.5 34 23 107.75 33.9

45 Daoza gate 1inzhou 15 16.2 16.2 24.17 3.7 46 Dea.u hauig gate Boxz 155 169 17.8 438.39 98.3 47 Sheall gate Kenli 15 10 20.4 310.61 17.5 48 Whq_ sate K8sal 8.5 8 4 49 Sougo . gate LiJi 10 5 9.16 37.15 15.8 50 Doug. guang p.st. LItin 2.3 1.13 0.7 51 UujIab. p.st. Wijn 1.6 6.4 1.88 52 Wang- uhuang gate Lljl 50 31 68.51 17.6 Subtotal In Shandong 1,689.2 2,432.51 250.77 164.0 8,194.33 1,750

Total 3,272.3 3,463.37 439.28 282.46 10,869.47 2,110.69

SourceS Jiang PYng, 1991 - 182 - 3

Tal 2s 8191 motu illU pzin 11m , tm.

in lo m va "u km D

i>fz~~~~~~~~fln fu::11 :7l, MD4 In Su., a 8U. i lot In! lff 47:fl 21:21 In III 8:89 pL 1& Ra. Su 65.34 653 ".92 14"8 12 3 4s 1i~5: Isdo1b. a n 77.11 77.11 76.17 10n" 14 42 ouat rd a". n30 1.80 10.67 -3.9 31 69 T.0~~~~~ GJ ~~71:9'°s° "1144 1411Ht $" 4 . Jm 1991

1427lOa IIU9 AMLU& 'iti9J" 12183 n 16011201

J= A." ~~~Are.AxAi"A Aes" aa Cit 3 au V.w trl- is- g dS tzw- .s. is pseac. Mr t ebargd Mr gt

A a C 0 I a I J

1601 t96 1934

1. 1toa 327.4 163.4 157,214 373.0 U. 318,965 236.01 1)6.54 192.159

[~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~f 1i3!'3 15 14t,92

* 1.74 a 1,961 0 21 4 11 e 897 9,411 7 0. HA. I.668 SI~~~~~~~~~~~~*1.s 1986 2 1f67l0 t 10 Ot40 .8 £965 5 tot a 7""1 I 19,35X 1 * * IS,.s 1s0 9,G4: fuble~~~~~~~~~~~~i t4s A' leu~~~~ : 1986 19 S7AS 31.[ 5 2j160 20 . ; 1111 34 flt11

34pi" Snt ta 37 ,§ X sld i:1 i M" I 410 oi] ii4 JP "Xt""#~~~~~~~......

¢l tE ~~~~~~~~~...... W ... >_..X^w 4 *0 40 _

S g g P| | ~~~~00s s *

t 4 est i i i V" aos _ w | W9

e Sg g | u *-******,-,...... u * ...... afo.* - 184 -

!abl. 1rnS mnu a s in-Agm affum fa isUIZuSu

Actual ltrrgated Ir4gattloa .-- ...... -..... 8 ater us. syata Year ater ee area applIcatIon. Water use per app1. off1cSeucy blccm 10000 WA 10000 apl. cM per mc cua av.rago Sn 70e 4.790 1107 433 so 5.683 1322 445 S1 6.215 1381 450 82 8.096 1948 3739 407 217 0.32 a3 7.510 1902 3886 395 193 0.36 84 5.366 2317 3804 274 167 0.42 85 5.189 1917 3421 271 152 0.46 86 8.266 2258 3s6 67 7.571 2253 336 8O 8.744 2483 352 89 12.345 1741 450 Averagps 374.6

Nots The system offcUcy was calculated taking th net llrgatlom duty as 70 cuzdh. - 185 - am a

Table 17as GAIUuPaoUcs Zo=UzamCJOnaY RU 1990 UD 2000* (yua Iha)

unit Wheat ___1b 5E__ COttoim Item8 Unit Price Amount Value Amount Value Amount Value

A. P8gsg 8infod Yield ton 2.2 2.1 0.5 Price Y/t 1,389 140 9,817 ProductValue Y 3,056 294 4,909 BYProd.Value Y 154 55 268 Total Value Y 3,210 349 5,177 InpUts Draft An. ha 55 16 36 Tractor Sev. hba 32 14 15 Seeds kg 1SO 105 40 60 90 108 Fertilizer kg 100 172 80 136 115 198 Pesticides k8 12 2 120 Manure kg 20 15 300 10 200 15 300 Other 72 61 126 Subtotal 748 491 903 Labor manday 175 160 375 met value 2,462 -142 4,274 Return per manday 14.1 -0.9 11*4 B. PresentPartially Irritated Yield ton 2.5 2.4 0.6 Price YIt 1,389 140 9,817 ProductValue 1 3,473 336 5,890 Bgprod.Value Y 180 73 352 Total value Y 3,653 409 6,242 Imi* Draft An. ha 60 17 40 TractorSewv. ha 34 is 23 Seeds ks 150 105 40 60 90 108 Fertilizer kg 130 224 100 172 160 276 Manure k Y20 20 400 10 200 15 300 Pesticides k 14 2 120 Other 82 65 136 Irrig.water d3 YO.029 1,350 39 1,050 30 900 26 Subtotal 958 561 1,029

Labor mday - 180 - 166 382 et value - - 2,694 - 152 5,213 Returnper mandy - - - 15.0 - -0.9 13.6 - 186 - AMnnL.

TAble 17bk C3U50,o1RVV- UBOUIC CROP EUDTSS 1990AMD 2000

Itmles Unit slc Am fut Valu Amouat Vlue Amount value

C. PresentFlly It lw T1e14 tom 3.8 . 4.4 - 0.9 Pruce YJt . 1,389 - 140 - 9817 - Product Value I - - 5,271 - 615 - 6,344 lyprod. Value Y * * 248 - 120 . 460

Total Val"u Y - - 5,519 - 735 . 8,804 ZDE&I Draft M. be . - 75 - 25 - 50 Trstor *rw. ha - - 50 - 20 - 20 seede k 1.1 150 135 40 72 108 225 Wrtillusr kg 160 276 140 241 190 328 Manure kg 20 23 450 15 300 23 450 Pesticldoe kg - - 20 - 4 - 180 Otber - - - 112 - 98 * 180 Irgig.water M3 0.029 5150 91 1350 39 1800 52

subtotal - * 1209 - 799 - 1485

Labor inla - 200 . 180 - 420 - et alu . - 4,910 -4 - 7,319 Retor per . - 21.5 - -0.4 - 17.4

0. Buter lull, rrit ata

Yield tox - 5.0 . 4.6 - 1.1 - price Tit - 1,351 . 185 - 7806 - hoduet Value 6,728 55 - 6,430 antrod.walue Y - - 248 - 120 _ 460

Ms" Ul x k6S 89

Draft An. ha . 75 - 25 _ So Iractor8se. ha - - so - 20 - 20 see"d 4 1.1 150 135 40 72 108 225 Pertiliser kg - 160 276 140 241 190 328 Manure 4 20 23 450 15 300 23 450 Pestfcides kg - - 20 - 4 - 180 Other . . . 112 - 98 - 180 lrrig.vater aW 0.029 3150 91 1,350 39 1,800 52 Aghtotal z.Q 12z - I1.48S - Labow ilay a 200 I S0 - 420 RetlueVa" - 5,767 - 176 7,405 etura per Man-day . . 28.6 - 1.0 - 17.6 - 187 - ANfEX 3

TabI* 17ts 0*531 PROVI=Os OOOHIC MP0 EUDC8S8 1990 AND 2000 (Yuan/ha)

Unlt bheat matze Cottonl items Unlt Price Amount Valua Amount value Amount Value

i. Future.. nM

1Ield ton - 2.2 - 2.1 - 0.5 - Prie fit - 1,351 - 185 * 7,806 - Product value I - - 2,972 389 - 3,903 Byprod. value I 154 - S5 - 268

Total value Y - - 3,126 444 - 4,171 snDuts

Draft n. ba - - 55 - 16 - 36 Tractor Serv. ha - - 32 - 14 - 15 Seeds kg 1.1 150 lOS 40 60 90 108 lortillsor kg 0.48 100 172 80 138 lS 198 Eseurs - - 12 - 2 - 120 Irrigatios .3 - 15 0 10 0 15 0 Posticidue kg - 72 - 61 - 126 Other _ _ _ _ _ - _ _

Subtotal - - - 448 - 291 - 603

Labog mdaY - 175 - 160 - 375 - Net value - - - 2,678 - 153 - 3,568 Rotura per onday _ _ _ 15.3 - 1.0 - 9.5

P. youture artisulhtlu1,1

ield4 ton - 3.9 - 3.8 - 0.9 - Price l/t - 1,351 185 - 7,806 - Product Valm Y - - 5,315 - 703 - 7,025 Byprod. Valu y _ 180 - 73 _ 352

Total Value Y - 5,495 - 7,76 - 7,377

Draft An. eh - - 60 - 17 - 40 Tractor er. b - - 34 - 15 23 sead kg - 150 105 40 60 90 108 PortillUer kg 130 224 100 172 160 276 Monure kg 20 20 400 10 200 15 300 Poaticlie. kg - - 14 - 2 - 120 other - - 82 - 65 - 136 Irrig. water u3 0.029 1,350 39 1,050 30 900 26

Subtotal - - - 958 - 561 - 1,029

Labor day - 180 - 166 - 382 - not Value - - 4,537 - 215 - 6,34 Return per maday - - - 25.2 - 1.3 - 16.6 -188 - IE.

Tabl 18& 31101Y&POVISU 8 hsOfIC 0 SODOMIT1990 AND 2000 (Yueulha)

tVit . haat l xe Rice Itme lit Prie dA=oMt Vag; 1Vii i Amiuit Value

A. PeserttPtggllv Elted Yeld tol 2.5 - 3.3 Price Tit 1,349 - 180 ProductValue I 3,373 - 585 . - Byprod. Valu - 180 - 73 - - Totalvaue - 3,553 - 658 - -

Intuto DraftA. Way 1 1.13 53 60 4 51 - - Trctor Sero. hour 1S 3 45 1 15 - - Seeds 4 255 152 37.5 60 - - lertillter11 k Y 0.36 300 fe8 450 162 - lextiise° kg 1 0.70 75 53 90 63 - nre T 1 6.00 7.5 45 7.5 45 - - Posticidee 4 - 5 - 2 - - Other . 75 - 90 - Irti. water 1 0.02 6,275 126 6,300 126 - - 3ubtotalI - - 668 - 614 - -

Labor naY - 180 - 212 - - - Set Value 2,885 44 - - leturoper anley 16.0 0.2 - B. Future Fully Irrimated

Yield to - 4.5 - 6.8 - 6.3 - price lit - 1,311 - 225 - 1,073 _ Productvalue Y - - 5,900 - 1,519 - 6,792 By-prod.vale Y - - 248 - 120 - 230 Totalvalue Y - 6,148 - 1,619 - 7,022

DraftAn. day 11.13 S3 60 36 41 - 150 Tractor8ere. hour s15 6 90 6 90 - 80 seed 1 1.10 300 179 38 61 60 144 Portilter1 4 y 0.36 335 121 545 196 - _ FertilizerP kg Y 0.70 135 93 150 105 170 293 Malure T 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 Peetlcidee 1 - - 6 - 3 - 35 otlhr 1 * * 75 - 170 - IS0 Irrlg.Water .3 Y 0.09 6,525 587 5,925 533 10,995 990

Subtotal - - 1,212 - 1,199 - 1,842

Labor alley - 1S0 - 240 - 360 - net value 4,935 440 S,181 Return per maday - - - 32.9 - 1.8 - 14.4 - 189 -Am 3

Table IUbs 3ua lawiut _omuO Cu _m 1990 am 2000

Unit lt sIs U Is 1uw Peiaioui !-u Vt Awt ViAou

11.4 toll - 2.5 * 3.3 - - - ftist lit - 1,311 - 225 - - fodu val - 3,278 - 743 - - By-prod. V,ue Y - - 154 Ss

Tot Xvalue X 3,432 - 798 - -

Dtaft a. vday Y .13 53 60 45 51 - - beotor eow. bout Y IS 3 45 1 IS - s" - 25 152 37.5 60 - - aetiLuer 11 O0.S6 300 106 450 162 - - lutiso:lr I g 0.70 75 53 90 63 - - naval T Y 6.00 7.5 45 7.5 45 - Pestldo - - S - 2 - thr - - 75 - 90 - - Irrlg. vat.sr 0.02 6.275 126 6,300 126 - -

subtotal - - 646 - 614 - -

Labor U!7 - 1t0 - 212 - - - not value - - 2764- - 184 - htun per mdy - - - 15.4 - 0.9 - - -190 -A

TableIa:t ZIU N =ouAPa@wuus N00uM0CUP In=J 1990 An 2000 (Yuan/ha)

Unit heat Maize Items Unit Price Amount Value Asount Value

A. PXesent Partjlly Irricated Yield too - 2.5 3.3 - Price Tit - 1,289 240 - Product value - - 3,223 - 780 By-prod. value I - 180 73 - Total value - - 3,403 - 853 k_4eft An. d 11 1.13 5S 60 45 $1 -actorew. hour Y1S 3 45 1 15 Seeds kS 255 152 37.5 60 Fertilizer N kg 1 0.36 300 108 450 62 Fertilizer P kg Y 0.70 75 53 90 63 Manure T 1 6 7.5 4S 7.5 4S Pesticides Y - - S - 2 other Y - - 75 - 90 Irrig. water -as Y0.02 6,275 126 6,300 126 Subtotal 668 - 614

Labor - 180IaSO - 212 - Net value - - 2,735 - 239 Retur.%per enday - - 15.2 1.1 D. Future Fuilly Irrimat Yield ton 4.1 6.0 Price Y/t - 1,25s 28S5 Product Value Y - - 5,167 - 1,710 Byprod. Vlue - - 248 - 120 Total Value - 5,415 - 1,830

Draft An. wda Y 1.13 48 54 45 51 Tractor Sewr. hour y 15 6 90 3 45 Seeds k8 - - 255 152 38 61 Fertilier kg Y 0.36 600 216 750 270 Fertilizer P kg Y 0.70 150 105 150 105 Manure T 16 2 12 1S 90 Pesticides I - - 6 - 3 Oter y - - 75 - 150 Irrig. Wator as Y0.02 5,850 117 5,850 117

Sutotal - - 827 - 892

Labor - 165 235 - Not Vlue - - 4,587 - 938 letur per mn-day - - 27.8 - 4.0 - - 191- lll3

Tabl 1lb: 1* Mmsu Ptims ZosoV Cam Sums 1990 An 2000

UI)t imat Maizx It_e Unit Price Amount Value Amount Value

Yield ton - 2.5 3.3 Price T/t - 1,251 - 285 - Product Valu - - 3,128 - 941 Byprod. Valve - - 160 - 73

Total vlue - 5S,415 - 1,830

Draft An. vay 1 1.13 48 54 45 51 Tractor ?w, hour s15 6 90 3 45 Seeds lu 255 152 38 61 Fertilizer 1 k 1 0.36 600 216 750 270 Fertilizer P US t 0.70 150 105 150 105 'aure T 1 6 2 12 1S 90 Pesticide I - - 6 -I Other I - - 75 - IS0 Irrig. water u3 1 0.02 5,8S0 117 5,850 117

Subtotal - - 668 - 614

Labor y - 180 - 212 - Net value - - 2,640 - 400 Return per day - - 14.7 - 1.9 - 192 -

Tablo 20aLLw PLaUs 3 ao Cmuo Ds 1990 An 2000 (yusanha)

unit WheaLt ui Items Unit Price Amount Value Amount Value

A. Present-Rfafed Yield ton - 0.4 - 0.8 - Price Y/t - 1,398 - 131 - Productvalue Y - 517 ° 98 Sy-prod. value I - - 80 - 36 Total value I - - 597 - 134

Draft An. Y - 31 - 14 Tractor Serv. ha - 0 - Seeds kg 85 34 27 24 Fertilizer 1 kg Y 0.59 60 35 53 31 Fertilizer P kg Y 0.20 75 15 60 12 manure T Y 1.00 20 20 24 24 Pesticides kg ' 5.71 1 4 1 5 other Y 48 - 47 Irrig. Water 1 0.02 0 0 0 0

Subtotal - - 187 - 157

Labor uasday - 160 90 - Net value - - 410 - -23 lAturn per usaday - - 2.6 - 0.3 - B. Present-Partiallv Irri@ated Condition Yield ton - 0.5 - 1.0 - Price lit - 1,398 - 131 - Product Value I - - 685 - 131 Byprod. Value Y - - 200 - 140

Total velue Y - - 885 - 271 Inuti

Draft An. Y - - 30 - 20 TractorServ. ha - _0 0 Seed kg 100 40 31 28 Fertilizer kg Y0.59 77 45 66 39 Fertilizer P Y 0.20 83 17 83 17 Manure T 1.00 20 20 14 14 Pesticides YI 4 - 5 Other Y - - 45 - 48 Irrig.Water i3 Y 0.02 1,930 39 877 18 subtotal 240 188

Labor manday - 190 - 123 - Not value - - 645 - 83 Returnperm anday - - 3.4 - 0.7 - 193 -

Tablo 20baI LoWs PMS Uoum Cato Vuo 1990 au 2000 (yuan/ha)

Unit Wheat Mlze Items unit Pirice AMout va3.ge Amount value

C. Future-1ul1l Irratled yield ton - 1.3 5.35 - Price Y/t - 1,360 - 176 - Product value Y - - 1,835 - 933 Byprod. value Y - - 200 - 144

Total value! - - 2,035 - 1,077 lupts

Draft An. y - - 82 - 67 Tractor Serv. Y - - 39 27 Beads kg 135 108 30 60 Fertilizer N k8 Y 0.59 250 148 300 177 FertilizerP kg Y 0.77 200 154 200 154 Maure T Y 1.00 30 30 22 22 Pesticides y Y 5.71 - 1 4 9 Other y - - 54 49 Irrig.Water Y2 0.02 5,010 100 3,105 62

Subtotal - - 719 - 627

Labor sanday - 220 - 210 - Net vlue - - 1,316 - 450 Return per manday - - 6.0 - 2.1 D. Future-PartiallyIrrigated Condition Yield ton 0.9 - 1.0 - Price Y/t 1,256 - 292 - Productvalue Y - 1,105 - 292 By-prod. value Y - 200 - 140

Total valueY - 1,305 - 432 -

Draft n. Y - - 30 - 20 Tractor erv. ha - _0 0 Seeds k 100 40 31 28 Fertilizer N kg Y 0.59 77 45 66 39 Fertilizer P kg Y 0.20 83 17 83 17 Manure T Y 1.00 20 20 14 14 Pesticides Y - - 4 - S Other Y - - 45 - 48 Irrig. Water Y 0.02 1,930 39 877 18

subtotel - - 240 - 188 Labor 190 - 123 Net value 1,066 - 244 lAtur per uauudy 5.6 - 2.0 - 194 AID= 3

Table 20e: Lamu hawai Uaamm5 COm Juma 1990 hfl 2000

Unit Uet Maize Itemo Unit Price Aont Value Amount Value

E. Future -Rainfed Yield ton 0.4 0.6 Price Tit 1t256 292 ProductValue Y 465 219 Byprod.Value Y so 36 TotalValue 1 545 255

Iniputo Draft An. 1 31 14 TractorServ. ha 0 Seeds kg as 34 27 24 FertilizerN kg Y 0.59 60 35.4 53 1.27 FertilizerP kIs 0.20 75 15 60 12 manure T 1 1.00 20 20 24 24 Pesticides kg Y 5.71 0.7 4 0.9 5 Other y 48 47 Irrig.Water US 1 0.02 0 0 0 0 Subtotal 187 157 Labor manday 160 90 lot Value 357 98 Returnper Monday 2.2 1.1 - l95 - l l

TAb 21.. SWam# Cmi Umm 1990am 2000 nlibs)

tetht i MAIM ite ti Ibti AmontiiiV "WAt Val Amx*ount vaue

A.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ . .tgint usli torn - 1.5 - 1.1 - 0.2 - i lt 1,239* 3S03 - 9,668 - PtoductVal" - - 1,59 - 342 . 2,030 By-pod. vau - - 0 - 36 93

Totalvalue - - 1,939 - 378 - 2,123

Daft A. I - - 31 14 26 - - Tbactor :Sv. Ia - - 0 - 0 - - 8d 4 - 65 34 27 24 102 S1 1*2till: k Y0.59 60 35 53 31 66 40 1r,ruise:1P 1 0.20 75 15 60 12 90 18 ISu.e 11.00 20 20 24 24 18 16 peatICld. l UY 5.71 1 4 1 5 2 11 Other - - 48 - 47 - 51 Irrg. Vatr Y0.03 0 0 0 0 0 0

subtotal - - 187 - IS - 216

Labr msaday - 160 - 90 - 215 - t value - - 1,751 - 221 - 1,908 Retur p.ermoday ^ - 10.9 - 2.5 - 8.9

S. Zinnent bhall UImied n41g1m lieu4 ton - 2.7 - 3.6 - 0.5 - plice lit - 1,239 - 303 - 9,668 - poduct Value I - 3 93.45 - 1,136 4,834 yptso.Value - - 200 - 140 260 TotalValue - - 3.545 - 1,276 5,094

Draft Aa * - s o0 20 28 T.actor Ser,. ha - - 0 0 0 Seed kg - 100 40 31 28 110 55 oetilllrz T4 0.59 77 45 66 39 67 40 lertilizri kg T 0.20 83 17 83 17 183 37 anaue I I 1.00 20 20 14 14 20 20 Peasticide - - 4 - 5 - 4 OtbtS - -4S.9 - 45 Irrig. later V Y0.03 1,936 58 87; 26 2,280 68

Subtotal - - 259 - 197 - 296

Labor usead" 190 123 281 net Value - 3287 - 1,080 - 4,798 Retrn, peo mendb - 17.3 - 8.8 - 17.1 - 196 -

Table U1b. Saus UUas Ca waDmn 1990 -i 2000

Wait wha M61RLz . ot item utVs Prie Amout Vallue

C.Wutun-tu. ull riat Yel ton 3.8 5.0 0.9 PriYC l/t 1,201 347 7,969 ProductValue 4,623 1,752 7,172 Byprod. Value Y 200 144 298 Total Value Y 4,823 1,896 7,470

Draft An. Y 82 67 89 Tractor Serv. Y 39 27 23 see"d kg 135 108 30 60 112 56 lertllizar3 kg Y 0.59 250 148 300 177 225 133 ilertlllserP kg Y 0.77 200 154 200 154 450 347 Manuo T I 1.00 30 30 22 22 30 30 Peaticidee y 5.71 1 4 9 26 Other Y 54 49 45 Irrig. water *3 1 0.06 3,010 301 3,105 186 5,790 347 Subtotal 919 751 1,096 Labor aandaY 220 210 300 sat Value 3,904 1,145 6,9374 Return per meadow 17.7 5.5 21.2 D. :ur*Yargall Irrlate gonlto

Yield ton 2.7 3.8 0.5 Price lit 1,201 347 7,969 Product Valu Y 3,243 1,301 3,985 lyprod. value Y 200 140 260 Total Value 1 3,443 1,441 4,245

Draft Au. 1 30 20 28 Tractor 8rv. he 0 0 0 seeda k 100 40 31 28 110 55 lortillzsrv Y 0.59 77 45 66 39 67 40 lertiliserP T 0.20 83 17 83 17 183 37 Manure T 1.00 20 20 14 14 20 20 PeaticiAe Y 4 5 4 Other 1 45 48 45 Irtg. Water U3 Y 0.06 1,930 116 0n 53 2,280 137

Subtotal 317 223 365 labor manday 190 123 281 Nat value 3,126 1,218 3,880 Raturn per manday 16.5 9.9 13.8 - 197 - AuLl

Sable21os Sh&uw* _onOw Om Iwom 1990 m 2000

Unit .. mmh. ._ MizCttn Ito.. Unit Price ouat Value Ahout Value Asoiii1iu

8. jhtwi,pAlaftA Ysied too 1.5 1.1 0.2 PRle lit 1,201 347 7,969 Product Value Y 1,802 392 1,673 By-prod. Value I s0 36 93 Total Valuo Y 1,882 428 1,766

Draft An. 381 14 26 Tractor Sorv. ha 0 0 Seds kg U5 34 27 24 102 51 lertl,exr a g 1 0.59 60 35.4 53 31.27 68 40.12 lertll er P kg Y 0.20 75 15 60 12 90 18 taVuAT 1 Y1.00 20 20 24 24 16 18 Peettaide 4 1 5.71 0.7 4 0.9 5 2 11 Other Y- 48 47 51 LTrig ater as I 0.06 0 0 0 0 0 0 Subtotal 167 157 216 Labour macday 160 90 215 Not value 1,694 271 1,S51 Return per Monday 10.6 3.0 7.2 - 198 - AMIRZ-3

Tabl S28. Un @am2 s 1990 - 2000

Unit INWmtz 1:... nit Pisrft snoutbif lii AMC= V i unt Valu

A.~~~~~~~~~~~ _ . .jW

yield toa 1.5 1.1 0.2 ris, Tit 1,294 298 9,673 product Value 1 1,941 337 2,031 Byprod. Value Y 80 36 93 Totll Val", 1 2,021 373 2,124

uto Draft a. 1 31 14 26 Tractor 8ebw. ba 0 0 8bed. kg 85 34 27 24 102 St ertillla g I 0.59 0 35 53 31 68 40 lzt*llsar P g 1 0.20 75 15 60 12 90 is Vaurs T 1 1.00 20 20 24 24 18 18 peaticide k 15.71 1 4 1 5 2 11 Othar Y 48 47 51 Irtg. water 1 0.03 0 0 0 0 0 0 Subtotal 187 157 216 Labour 160I"nday 90 215 not Value 1,834 213 1909 Retus per Nandb 11.5 2.4 8.9 D. _-1E Q s Yield tea 2.7 3.8 0.5 Price Tit 1,294 298 9,673 Product Val" 1 3,494 1,118 4,837 BYprod. Value Y 200 140 260 Total Value 3,694 1,25 5,097

Draft An. I S0 20 28 Tractor Sasv. ha 0 0 0 Beads kg 100 40 31 28 110 55 hertliser g 1 0.59 77 45 66 39 67 40 Pertlllser g 1 0.20 83 17 83 17 183 37 Maure T 1*00 20 20 14 14 20 20 Peticie. 1 4 5 4 other 1 Us 48 45 Irrig. lwater i s 10.03 1,9930 58 877 26 2,280 68 subtotal 259 197 296 Labour M*sla 190 123 281 let Value 3,435 1,061 4,800 ctuma per Mndeay 18.1 8.6 17.1 - l99 -

Table Ms . mu ow I=s= 1 1Tia)

nit Run Item unit Pt T

C. Iutu rl Sa lisle toQ 3.8 5.0 0.9 PTic lit 1,U26 292 7,914 Product Val" 1 4,634 1,474 7,123 Bpgo. Val I 200 144 298 Total Yal" 5,034 1,S16 7,421

raft A. Y 62 47 s9 Tsaor leuv. Y 39 27 23 Seed 3S 10$ 30 60 112 56 lertili. 1 Ig 0.*9 250 14U 300 177 225 133 JrtlaUSr kg 10.77 200 154 200 154 450 347 -an-e I 1.00 30 30 22 22 30 30 Peoace I 5.71 1 4 9 26 other Y 54 49 45 Urig. Water I 0.06 5,010 501 3,105 16 $,790 347 Subtotal *19 751 1,096 Labor as"" 220 210 300 net Tabla 4,115 $67 6,325 letur per Nudity 16.7 4.1 21.1 D. n au2o lI1U tol 2.7 3.6 0O. Price lit 1,256 292 7,914 Product Value 1 3,391 1,095 3,957 lyprot. Vaue 1 a00 140 260 Tol Value Y 3,91 t,o5 4,217 DZan Draft An. Y 30 20 26 Trator Sor. ha a 0 0 Se t100 40 31 26 110 5 nrtiluerl g 0o.5 77 45 66 S9 67 40 lnrtltsr k g 0.20 83 17 63 17 183 37 Sanure Y11.00 20 20 14 14 20 20 Peeticdee 1 44 5 4 other 1 45 46 4 irig8. Water 1 0.06 1,930 116 677 3 2,280 137 Subtotal 317 223 365 Labor 1a1daw 190 125 2l1 Net Tale 3,274 1,012 3,652 Retumn per lAda 17.2 *.2 13.7 - 200-

tale22e Siam 190-20,uins

X t t---%-Y Items Watt. _ Srilo . ,_.. .

Yb14 tau .$l. J.2 YieJ t 1.25 X 24 7,914 Pidut vale 1 1,884 330 1,662 lypAo. Vale 1 0o 9X 93 Total Taus 1 1,964 366 1,55

Dtat La. I 31 14 26 tfaot owet. be 0 0 Sed a s 34 27 24 102 51 lelltua 3 k 0.5* 60 35.4 53 31.27 6 40.12 laitLlts I 1 0.20 75 15 G0 12 90 16 MAWAiir Y11.00 20 20 24 24 16 16 setiou. kg 1 35.71 0.7 4 0.9 5 2 11 Orbot Y 48 47 S1 Inlg. Vot.l I10.04 0 0 0 0 a 0 Subtotl 167 157 216 Labor sm"MY 160 90 215 Net Vale 1.777 209 1,539 letute z 1a1 11.1 2.3 7.2 - 201 -

fable net. lam Invawet 2Eni am lam= IOWm2 (1h)

e" _aO vainXBl Items Vot t V I 'Qt v= m"t aut

1T11 toa 2.2 2.1 0.5 Prue lYt 1*2" S9u 9,67 Ptrouct Value S it"? 626 4,837 lypro. Vale 1 154 55 2" Total Value 1 2,891 "0 5,105

Drot An. ha 55 16 36 Tractor Seu. ha 32 14 15 sea"d IS150 105 40 60 90 106 PertlIla.r 4 100 172 S0 138 115 198 leot WM k' 12 2 120 esue k 20 15 300 1i 200 15 300 Other 72 61 126 subtotal 748 491 903 Labour ay 175 160 375 net Val" 2,143 190 4,202 tum per Vaay 12.2 1.2 11.2 S. z.a l rrSzlse TYeld toe 2.5 2.4 0.6 prie /t 1,244 298 9,673 Pxoduct Value 1 3,110 713 5,04 lyprs. Value I 160 73 32 tOOl Value 1 3,290 788 4,156

Draft An. ha 60 17 40 Tractor $ST. a, 34 5 . 23 8eed. kg 150 105 40 60 t 108 Jertlisur } 130 224 100 172 10 276 menu" Y 20 20 400 10 200 15 300 petlilde 14 2 120 other S2 5 136 Igri. Water as 1 0.0291,350 39 1,050 30 900 26 Subtal 9f8 561 1,029 Labor slY 180 166 382 Not Value 2,332 227 5,127 ltetu per m11day 13.0 1.4 13.4 - 202 - X 3

Tabe ISba luau luY -suwuus fCu Sawim 1990 mm 2000 (Iiha)

olt Who" main c9iCtoRic Iteme Uitt Fkbe 010120t Value 00ount 4U* AQoUAt Value Azount VA1OW

C. S Yield ton 3,8 4.4 0.9 3.3 Price Y11 1*244 29 9,63 986 Product Valu" 1 4,721 1,310 8,222 5,221 Byprod. VsluN 1 248 120 460 230 Total Value 1 4,969 1,430 8,682 5,451

braft An. ha 75 25 50 150 Tractor Ser. hb SO 20 20 80 Seeds 4 1.1 150 135 40 72 108 225 6) 144 pertIlluar 4 160 276 140 241 190 328 170 293 ManuMe kg Y20 23 450 15 300 23 450 23 450 Pesticide t20 4 180 35 Otber 112 98 180 150 Irri. water 03 Y 0.029 3,150 91 1,350 39 1,800 52 10,995 319 subtotal 1,209 799 1,485 1,621 Labour uday 200 180 420 360 net Valu 3,760 631 7,197 3,830 eturn pr Manday 18.8 3.5 17.1 10.6

D. Tutu" 11U l.eld tom 5.0 4.6 1.1 6.3 Price T/t 1,206 342 7,964 1,005 Product Value I 6,006 1,580 8,601 6,362 pbode. Value 1 248 120 460 230 Total Value 1 6,254 1,700 9,061 6,592

Draft An. ba 75 25 50 150 Tractor Serv. ba S0 20 20 80 Seeds k 1.1 150 135 40 72 108 225 60 144 lertillzor kg 160 276 140 241 190 328 170 293 Manure kg 120 23 450 15 300 23 450 23 450 PEsticidee g 20 4 180 35 othsr 112 98 180 150 Irrlg. Water Y 0*029 3,150 91 1,350 39 1,800 52 10,995 319 Subtotal 1,209 799 1,485 1,621 labor 348 200 ISO 420 360 net value 5,045 901 7,576 4,971 Return per Manday 25.2 5.0 18.0 13.8 - 203 - AMEL

TabuO es lauMms mua hm woan IA 1990l m' 2000 MM)

Unit Jhe.t Ni.z Gott"« Ries It zs Untt Prue Ammut vaiu amount V luo mout vauo lmouat W75i

S. Puture Raiafed Yield tou 2.2 2.1 0.5 Price Y/t 1,206 342 7,964 ProductValue Y 2,653 718 3,982 Byprod. Value Y 1S4 55 268 Total talue K 2,807 773 4,250

Draft An. ha 55 16 36 Tractor 8erv. ha 32 14 15 seeds k8 1.1 150 lOS 40 60 90 10L P rtiliser 0.48Ag 100 172 80 138 115 198 Maure 12 2 120 Irrigatlon m3 15 0 10 0 15 0 Peetlels kg 72 61 126 Other Subtotal 448 291 603 Labor uday 175 160 375 met Value 2.359 482 3,647 Return perNanday 13.5 3.0 9.7 P. atjue UaUiaUZzIramted 11.1 ton 3.9 3.8 0.9 Prico Yl/t 1,206 342 7,964 Product Value Y 4,745 1,300 7,168 yrod. Value I 180 i 352 TotalValue Y 4,925 1,373 7,520

Draft n. ha 40 17 40 Tractor Serr. bA 34 IS 23 Seed. kg 1S0 105 40 60 90 108 fertilizer kg 130 224 100 172 160 276 MAwnue kg o20 20 400 10 200 1S 300 Peeticide kg 14 2 120 Other 82 65 136 Irrg. Water Y1 0.029 1,350 39 1,050 30 900 26 Subtotal 958 561 1,029 Labor wday 180 166 382 Net Valu 3,966 811 6,491 etura per Manday 22.0 4.9 17.0 - 204 - a

Table24.. Suaxs R_o Om m_ 1990A 2000 (like)

Unit Ihent f.z .e Cott.n Itenm Uit Praf iiioiYiitvau im=t Amount r Va1-

A. ugsa-Rawed Conliti YilId ton 3.0 3.3 0.7 Prie lit 1,244 298" 9,673 Produt Value 1 5,758 983 6,771 yprod.Vals I 181 198 532 TotalVale 3 940 1,18 7,9303

DraftAn. ha 45 75 75 Tractor"ew. be 60 45 seeds kg 150 30 55 88 75 120 Fert zo.r 1 V 0.50 1,050 525 900 450 1,025 S25 Peaticide kg 1 40.00 3 120 2.5 100 9 360 Other 8S 8S 90 ir q . wate USX Subtotal 1,135 798 1,215 Labor mondaY 154 155 378 Nat Value 2,805 3S8 6,088 Returnper Monday 18.2 2.5 16.1 B. uaBsent-iZINUallZuIraasatidJIi TYLd ton 3.6 4.0 0.8 Pruie lit 1,244 298 9,673 ProductValue 1 4,478 1,192 7,448 Nyprod.Valu 1 216 240 5S5 TotalValue Y 4,694 1,432 8,033

DraftAs. ha 49 88 75 TractorSem. ba 82 83 See"d 4 147 294 36 90 75 120 lartimiser g Y 0.50 1,253 627 1,028 514 1,260 630 Peeticidee kg Y 40.00 5.9 156 3.0 118 10.5 420 Odher 129 125 127 Irril. otor as Y 0.030 2,250 67 900 27 900 27 Subtotal 1,404 962 1482 Labor 100a0y 154 155 378 Nat Value ,291 470 6,552 ReturnVe Monday 21*4 3.0 17.3 - 205 -

Table24bs Samuu XbouamoCm Bsws I1990 A 2000 (Iiha)

UaNlt t Naito Cotton Items Unit ace mo Yvalue Amount vue inut V

C. Preset-Full? Irratoi Coatlon Yield ton 3.8 4.4 0.6 price Y/t 1I244 298 9,673 ProductValue 1 4,721 1,323 7,690 B51rod. Value Y 226 266 604 TotalVaiun 1 4,949 1,590 8,294

Draft An. ha 45 90 67 Tractor Serv. ha 120 97 seed 113 225 9 8 94 75 120 Fertiliser k Y 0.50 1,936 969 1,200 600 1925 963 Pesticides Y 40 4 172 3 124 a 300 Other 150 150 IS0 Irri. Water M Y 00O 3,150 94 1,350 40 1,800 54 subtotal 1,775 1,098 1,750 Labour mandy 156 158 364 Not Valu 3,174 491 6,544 Returnper mday 20.3 3.1 18.0 D. futue-JUly Irriated Condt yield ton 4.7 4.8 1.1 Price Tit 1,206 342 7,964 Product Value 5,680 1,642 8,601 Ryprod. Value Y 283 288 621 Total Value Y 5,963 1,930 9,422 Inputs

Draft An. ha 45 90 67 Trator Berv. ha 120 97 See" kg 113 225 38 94 75 120 lertiliuer kg I 0.50 1,938 969 1,489 745 1,925 963 Pesticldes k 1 40.00 4 172 3 124 8 300 Other 150 1S0 1S0 irris.water M Y 0.044 3,lS0 138 1,350 59 1,800 79 Subtotal 1,819 1,262 1,776 Labor aUday 156 158 364 let Value 4,144 668 7,646 Returnper Monday 26.6 4.2 21.0 . 206 -

Table 24*s SinuoBsSuw OoC ebR.m 1990 an 2000

Ut te Wheat mlue _Cotten Itemso Unt ttlee Aouat Vflua AsouSt Vill" Amount Val"I

S. 20turaisn.ld" A11 yield ton - 3.0 3.33 - 0.7 Pi fit - 1,1206 - 342 - 7,964 Vslue I - 3,644 - 1,129 - 5,575 Product 198 532 B3prod. Valu4 I - - 181 - - 6,107 Total Value - - 3,8253 - 1,327

ha - - 73 - 63 61 Draft An. 86 Tractor Ser. ha - - 56 - - 150 300 36 91 75 120 deed kg 703 rtilinger - 1,240 620 036 519 1,406 kg - 4 158 3 111 11 U2 Pesticides 145 Otber - - - 126 - 120 Irrlg. Water s 1,558 Subtotal - - 1,333 - 924

manday - 154 - 155 - 386 Labor - 4,545 Net Value - - 2,491 - 403 leturn per Manday 16.2 - 2.6 - 11.8 1. Iuture-PartllIIsS zimd Coadit3on Yield ton - 4.3 - 4.2 - 0.6 - 1,206 342 7,964 price tit 6,484 Product Value Y 5,226 1,419 1 260 249 619 Dyprod. Value 7,103 Total Vale 3 5,486 1,668 knputs Draft An. ha 5o 75 83 53 Tractor Sarv. ha 110 Seed ks 147 294 36 90 75 1 0.50 1,502 751 1,13S S68 1,629 615 FYrtiliser g 426 lesticide kg 1 40.00 4 160 3.0 120 10.7 132 127 137 Other 27 Ilrg. Vater US Y 0.030 2,250 67 900 27 900 1,684 Subtotal 1,537 1,019 Labor Auaby 154 IS1 386 3s949 649 5,419 Net Value 14.0 RUtua perMonday 25.6 4.2 I I ft't If [ Fi'IEiEI 'ig 4

Ir1e, e. " §eIdE |

e i ff ;-" O II - 208 ARM a

Table26s 1ua 1Auauu s Im In 8mua

Povhaince AtCharm Ana 1d Vol - Ye in Kin bi aD AV" Vol=* A"U O . (TY/WAgr) (k4/A1/YV) Zlt/tw/g) too cmq fee cessg 'i-. PrfcI0Y)lyr) (Y/3,0000I,001) .3)YC/Ar)

40 1-.2 QlagbIhanul -MM 3-6 kg.*gNI- 1-1.

r llmm. - GS^tV lrVty-O. Lift9 9-24Charge 0.6 2-6 Sbaw 2:3 0 .Z-0.5 3-10 - - Shanxi- 1-1.2 40 1-112 40 - - - 1.8 4-7 1.8 X -8 Shal_mg 3.5-4*5/ttm

a ~ ~~In± 2

Gravity Lift Clwrw C/vime Y1,000 =3) (/1,900003) /l1,0OO"0)

ean" Inr son. Sb"Vad ~~10-15 8-13

sbhndong 2* 12

Sources Wasg Yvens, gmn Zeuqlns memo, November.15. 1991 - 209 - M

d1wte, nw.. ftevln Pr m Tat (arMaMM ) (1 0 o) (ms)cuM 2) mama.M M W . eawma uu are

£a5emg s1985 121.82 8 - * * 0.392 * * - 1t" 800.99 84 - - 0.0 e . . - 1987 576.75 W * * - 0.1 * - - 1988 19940 - . - - . - - - 19st 6-10 -a a. a h WA 19SU 1,0t".69 8-5 1o : a 1. i s ; : 1SM 1,3.57 34 14 * - 1. *38 . - 1967 1 474.18 8-5 1- * - 1.921 - - - 19$$ 1,487.97 a a - - a - ' 196 1.440.76 8-10 ;-.0 * - 5.29 - 1qan 1985 478.60 . . 640 - 0.960 . . . 1986520.1 a .0a 0776 a a- 2987 786.28 * * 440 - 0. * - a - 1985ISUqabs 279.54 2 1-3 - - 0*921 - * - - 1966 277.27 84 143 - - OS80 * - - - 287 t257.08 84 1- * 0.847 - - - -

Ig89 298631 610 *-10 - - 1.470 - a - _ .. 1 18 s 4 .6 1 85997 43.476 1.743 17.205 14.009 10.M19 1S86 8112 84 a 65.5W 57.6. 3.077 1-031 SO.197 U.101 198 7,6.863 6_12 -S . 0.241 2.86s 14.505 22.S99 10.614 1988 9,18.106 28 3.S-4.S a a 78.15 1.369 28.641 80.098 1t. 0 1989 1n.785 o 3.S-4.5 * 9.897 6.S925S.M7 25.661 3S.28 26.A40 so. 195 9261.5 11 8- . 18.43 0.940 0-7 0.206 986 1,t5o7.48 1* Sa 9.53S 9.84 0.44 a 7.40 1.45 1987 1,1526.7 11 84 - - 5 S.9470.731 a 4.936 0Q. 1981,982.57 20 3.8.4.5a. .4 0.941 *.1 8.610 1.798 1989 1}749.6 20a 354. a 11.481 10.273 1.39 0.15 6.2 2.507 JAt LSU1 U l S 12 - 0*7 .4 0.116 - 0.055 0.277 1986 154.7I 1.27 83 - 1.411 0.620 0.03 . 0.215 0.S7m 1967 111.67 1-27 8 - * O.*41 0.16 . 0044 0488 18 75S 1.27 384 1.898 1.394 0.065 *0.I 1.201 19" 22.98 1S W4 a 219 0.m 0-119 a 0.100 0.sn D.SIt 185 712.49 12 34 * 23942 2.699 0.28 _ _ 2.11, 196 1,0t2.8 1i 34 _ 4.68 4.823 0-.#1 1.46 1.440 1987 68.2$ 12 5 * 1.426 0.28a 0.*50 0.639 100 904.29 1i 84W *.277 0.U0 .326 0.716 199 1,19.90 28 3.S.4.5 * 20 5.900 0.600 - 1.694 4.0 a1 195 8i0.94 12 - 10.2l 7.444 0.700 a 2.1 8.92 19w 1.10.74 12 84 Soo500 I1.500 0.552 8.52 4.2Y1 1967 979.01 1 W5 * .916 0.474 - 2sa 2.759 I986 1,209.42 12 3-5 is8s8t 9.2S8 0.677 a 4.70 148 919S2.10+S4 12 3 . 11.420 8.S34 1.042 . 2.689 1.88 D_m 1985 1,678 17 a - 24.176 24.176 0.150 16.473 2.S8 - 1986 2,948.71 17 - 4.543 20.191 0.8"0 2.01 7.60 - 197 2,62.78 17 - *4- a220 0.0.505 4.685 1988 2.778.77 17 8.407S3 8S°7.07 1.3So 2U."6 12.351 19ISU 5,908.05 17 - - 11.307 S9.S17 1.370 2.531 12.414 - 1.aeaba "95I9162 lall - .568 7.76 0.191 a 3.884 3.690 196 1,58.9 1-1 - . 11.409 9.489 0.219 . 4.870 4.400 1987 1,814. 1-12 - - 14.002 0.340 * 7.701 6.961 198 1,590s.1 1_12 1.315S 15.316 0.947 - 7.261 7.107 1989 210.14 1.12 - *2.938 21.931 1L0O0 - 12.033 8I875

SareasVaing!Saaq, Ia. arnang ,wNwaseber 1.199 y It hi2logi

wit'bc41~~L4otiiri -211-

S. Extg devepmt ler arelimdto Shegg(40 MW) andThnJao (128 W In In Mongolia,and Sanmena (250 W In Shanxi/Hnan at the wdt ends of do north southsectin Cumu Reswwr Opwa_o 6. ad, locatedat the head of he ascde,has an dfectivesag cacity oal to 94 percn of v annualrunoff at the dsm st. It Istherefre capable of provig 141o I I regulationtotheenireca . Ljiaisohas an storagoandSamxiahas sen stoag. Al tr of theseare mutiptrosproject, withLionyanvia and Liujiaxia projec prmaiy prvidIg power genraon, but with opeation res vared to provide seonday b of floodcontrol, Irigain andice run contrl. SanmeaxaIs prmaly used for floodcontrol, sedment control, ice u control,war upplyand irrigation, with power o -a-1- playinga reatl minortwo. Theopertg ndespovide for w powergenerato during*t moths of July,Augut andSeptmb. Te othereitig and undercosrcon projects,LUja Yanguoui Bapx, Qingtox, Shgog and ianqiaohae only daily torag capblty nd froma powerpoint of vieware opeated as ran-of-riverplants. C. PoWE lrMA 7. oehydropowergeonatd by hydroprojocts on th YellowRhe is fed ito one of f ds: Northwest,Norh Chia, or Cend China S. N Chia PowerNetwork (NWCPN). Ihe NorthwestChina Power Netwodrkwasformed by' I .. mgthe hydro based (an, Qha, andNina provinci systelusfto"b a SOOkm ftmmlsdonlin fromLiujiaxa hydopower staton to the coal tema basedShaan loadcener. Bothcoal ad hydropowerrsou are abdan in the sevie areaof this gid, nd an optm mixof co fred base loadgeration, andhydro peakinggenrtion s possible.Hydrapower in thissystem acunt for about48 percentof capcityand 42 pecnt of ener geneation 9. Nr Chiunawner Netwk (NCPN).The North China Power Network vrs Beijingand Thqin munia, Hebel d Shanmprovinces and the weter partof theImer Molia AuonomousRegion. The western part of thesvic areais richin coa reserves,but theloads ar mainly InauBeOijin and lathL Ti situaiongives rise to largemine mouth ca fired power staon nd EHV ss lnes, for examplethe SheO,od D ng thma powerplans, InO Shai coa area,supply power via a 500kV transmission line tD Beijingand l1an. Te arefew bydro resources locaed in the servicearea of ths giddan hydropoweraccounts for only4.5 pct of capactyad 1.5percen of eer. 10. Cenal China Powe Netwok (CCPN). The Ctrad ChinaPower Network coven Hna,H ube, uau andian powvi , was allyfoed In the 1960swith the o of the Hubeland Henan grids thogh Da*akou hydropower stat on th Ha Rivr (tributaryof the Yango). In 1988,wIth to mi of tho 500 kV - nbw ln connectg the newlyconsdtcted Gerhouba power staton (2,715MW, 16,000OWh) on th Yagt, to Zhuou in Hunan,the network s it exs todaywas basically foned. Th hydrpowerprpotion in thisnetwork prily locatedIn t Yangi bain accounsfr 40 percentof tot cpcity and38 pect of enr. The onlyYellow Rier hydrostaio feding into is netwo I the250 MW Sanmenx power station. With runf- -212 rie hydrostaions accotig for halfof totl cacity, hydroeneg outputreduces to half during thewinter monts, which,with very high system load factors,leads todifficuties In moetingthd lad dug thes months. 11. Grid Int--ouneItIo... Atpre therae fiveregona power sytm with centrizeddispatch (Nor, Noeast,Northwest, Ceal ad East China)and to with coordinateddispatch(South ad Southwes). Str in the conncm betwee th nework to pov ower fows from the coa and hydro rich areas In the west to t loat cnts In th ast is a ky elemet of GCs log tm strt for power systemdevelopmet Alry, a strong hs be rmed between h Ce l anddEat Cba grids wi t omssionn of the ± 5 kV HVCI fim Gezhoub to Shanga, nd a number of oter bigh volge Itco are tentd y plann in the 1990s which wl ahiv strong Iterconnectons bawen the North and Northeastgds, and betweenthe Nortwest and North Cina grids. 'he general eperience with interconec--- todate is t power flows have bee less thn projeced, becas of load rowth In the source gM consitendy exceeding tets. Neve ss, intenctions are sti viable In the short tem where power flows can be guaranteed, eg., from coal fildds In reativey undevelopedae of Iner Mongolia and Sha to load ents l Beijingand lJin. Simiay, they wi bojustified where gificant potetaldsts for peak/off peak power exche, as exsts between the hydro rih Northwest grid and the amost purely themal North China grid.

12. he Implication of the abovefir YellowRiver Basini hat strong Intne ae likeilyto esbetwhee all newor servedby the d of thedecde. Substi power flows are projected from th northest to h Ceral gdd, and pealoff peak power excmges wil occurbetwon the Northwestand NorthChia gids. 13. Lead Foecst. he followinghistorical load demanddata was obtainedfrom MOEJMWRpublicaons:

Tabb 1: BWmIWAL LOADGxowM

Northwest Grid North China Grid Central China Grid Energy Enrgy Energy Year Peak Load Gosnrated Pek Load Generated Peak Load Generated m GlWA w II NW GWh

1984 3,380 23,147 8,218 59,084 7,020 56,315 1986 4,470 30,123 9,972 69,409 7,960 66,412 1988 5,250 35,218 10,632 82,499 10,040 82,735 1989 5,990 40,708 12,600 88,141 10,800 90,125 1990 6,450 43,056 13,280 97,589 10,950 96,654

14. Thepeak od numbersin the above tabl areods atthe conoumer l"v, i.e., exclding lose,where, the e,ery geneoated umbens are evdnldy a the generadonlevel, Le., inufingsystem loss andconsumption by plat auxiliaries. In 1990, line loss in the Northwes,Nrh and Ctr gids w respectively8.19 percen, 7.39 pece and9.52 perce Staton us t outChn aveagd6.9 percent, but coud be up to 9.0 pecet forystm wih a largeproportion ofcoal-fired thema apacityand as low as 2.0 perct for - 213 - largeilyhydrobsed systems. To provd a consstentbasis for maximumload fiocasti, maximumdemand at the geraton llvd estdmatd8t into accountthe abovefures for losses,to be 7258MW, 13,280 MW and 12,949MW for the Northwest,North and Cent grids.

15. The annualpeak load In the vaious networksoccurs In November.The typic monthlyvadation the peakload and the demad for energy,based upon data o n r the Henn powergrid is shownIn Figues la and lb. A typicalmonAty load duraton uwe Is shownon Figure lc.

16. The abovefigures indicate ener gerion growthrat in the 7th FYP (1986 to 1990)of 10.9percent 8.7 percentand 9.2 percent,respecdvely for the Northwest,North and Centralgrids. In the case of the Northwestgrid, peak demandgrowth rate (11.3 percent) exceededtha of energygeration, beg typicalof unconstrainedgrowth. In the case of the other two grids, however,the peak deand growthrat (8.3 and 7.4 percent)were lower, indicatingsupply constained growth. This is also confirmedby the daily systemload fact which are relativelyhigh, 88.8 percentand 89.2 percentfor the Northand Ctal gis, in compaisonto 84.2 prce for the Northwestgrid. 17. Durig te 1980sener geationfor the wholeof Chinaincrased at an annual rate of 7.5 pecent, dower ta GDP 8.9 percent. This slowergrowth was lgely a fuction of supplycostrint, and duringthe 1986to 1990period, large capaciy iese allowedeeg generationto grow at an amnal rate of 8.6 pert exceedingGDP (7.6 percen). Durig ts period,growth In the Northand Cetral gridswas gealy in line withovel growthrates in China, whe hat in the Northwestgrd, was abouttwo pecet greater, pedaps reflecting unconstraieddemand growth. 18. For the decadeof the 1990s,geatng capacityfor the wholeof Chinais plawned to growat aboutthe samerate as the economy.This may prove to be consevative. Evenwith concertedeffors in enersy consevaton and demand m em, a fster growth is conceivable,in view of the plannedredeployment of baic Indusies and of the likdy rapid growthin the readel component.Growth in genating capacitywl al needto exceed demandgrowth rates, to adhievethe Govenmentspolicy of reemen of old smaUcoal-fired plans which are less efficientand more polluting. Orginaly publishedtargets for electric powergrowth for the period1991 to 2000(correspdiug to a 6 percentgrowth of GNP),was 7.0 percent,but recentupward reion of economicgrow target to as highas 10 percet, wouldalso requireupward mrvion of the powergeration target. For the puposes of this exercise,demand and capacityexpansion foecasts weredevdoped assuming average dectriciy growthrates of sevenpercn andten pecent Tota powerand nergydemands and Itled capacites at the generationlevel, and incremena demandsover thoseof 1990are dson in TableA2. Forthe threegids capacity, requred up unti the Year2000 and 2005ae shownin the followingTable 2: C. 0no EzvAMONPzs TOYER 2005

19. China. Exploiablehydro resources in CLinaare eimated at 378,000MW. At present only abot 10 percentof these resowces are developed,and acederatio of thek developmentis a key elementof the Govmen's long term stratWgfor power sm epansi Duringthe 1990sit is tde to develophydro and coal fired hydro plant In -214 -

Tabb 2: LOADFORECAU YZAI 2000 2005

Caacitv Icrementa M1 Northwest worth Chias, Central Chin. Grid Grid Grid

To Year 2000 GrowthRate 7.0 percent 8,273 17,874 19,341 GrowthRote 10.0 percent 13,632 29,454 31,872

To Yalr 2090 Grorth Rato 7.0 percent 15,046 32,509 35,178 GrowthRat. 10.0 percent 27,177 58,719 63,540 parallelata suffient ra to mati thesare of hydroIn ho genatomix at 30 percnof capcityand20 pcet of geneaton,a propotion whkh has remained firy ste hought tewhigh grw pri ofthe 1980s. Duig the1990s overal plas we to dovelopthe watr rerces ofthe upper and middle reaches of theYangt, the pccreaches of the Yellow River,as wel as theHonghi River BasiL. Th tenyear Ietent plan based on an economic rowthre of sixpen, Includedthe addition of 40,000 MW of hydropower.Higher growth ets wilrequro a proporona ires inftis caacty. 20. YdelowRiv asn. Inthe Ydlow Riverbasin, presetplans cal for th deveopmntdui h 8th,9th and 10th FYP's (.e., duing tho peiod 1991to 2005)of sevn addiioaprojet on heYeflow River. hese are Dua, holangd,dWanjiasha which will com underthe 8th FYP ndLaIwa, Gogboxl, D_hu andQlkou which a curndy chedledto conmen inthe 9th FYP.Ihese project arefolly descried inChaptr 5, ad ter powergeating charteristcs aro s d in TableA3. Thetot generag capciyfo be addedwll be about 11,960 MW andthe additonal average a eer capabilitywillbe 37,750 GWh. Aferthes projec ave been completed 78.6pece of the capactand 77.3 pen ofthe ene capabilitywil havebeen dovdoped. 21. Th thr projectson theupper reac, Laulwa (3,720 MW), Gongboxia (1,500MW) and Daxa 300MW), r nm-oof-tivpower projec whichrdy onth reuation of L hngyanglafr iheirfirm eney capabilt. Ineach cas theIsed capacitywa evideny cho to providea 25 perencapat hcr basedon firm energy. This is a gnaly arpriatcacy factorforthe currt dan IntheNorthwest grd, wher hydro _*ay costtue, Mhlf toW caciy. 22. Allth projecton thenorth-south strtchof the middle reach are multpure projetswih powergeato benfs.Waujiazal (1,080 MW) ii Itded to be oonnctdto th NorthChina gd andDaluhu (1,920MW) are both itnded to be co ted tothe Nor est Gdd. Qlku(1,S00 MW) wil be coned ee to the Northwtor the Norh Chinagd. 23. Waujiazbawil actas a peakigplant for the nxad InnerMongolia subgdds, a wel as a tng power to tho Norhd Ingrd vla a 100 kmbd li. Mm - 215 - J t installodapacity of WaqjlashacoTesponod to a 17percet capacy fctor basoaoafrm ener whichIs appropriateoonidig thelow prporto (5.3pcnt of capcitysad 1.8 pcet of eeg) of hydroIn the NorthChina grid. In additionto thedhrct contbuton o thepower supIy, the Wuiaza projectwiU also producesecoday powerbeefit by makin waer avaiableIn Shaxi anda conseoqt I a In the avaialty ad powr genaon fiom themalplua in thergion. 24. The frm ener and avrage erg fr the Qku poject(1,500 MW) wll decrm from i valuesof 349 MW con and S,1SOGWh Inia y to 298 MW contiuousand 4,7S0 GWh I lae eaYrof te projectli. le capacy factorbasd on firm ner wll reducerom 23.3 peret Iiy to about20 pet f onomected direcdyto theNorth China grid a somewhatlower capacity facto maybe approprite. 25. Thefeaili studyof the Daliushu project consided twodifert sheme. The preferredaragemet consst of a bighdam at Daliusbuwith an insalledcapaity of 1,920 MWwhich coresponds to a capacityfictor basedon firmener of 27.6 pecen Onc Dalluhu s buit, L yaW a andLiujivada cn be operatd to mim powergenation whie Daliushutaes on the role of reegulato for flood contol and ice rn contol to th middlereahes. Tis woud reult In someinae in firmeoneW of the upstreamproject (Longyngia,Luijiaxda, Yanguox, aax andQ4gtopxa) prdiminarilyestmd at 200 MW contnuous. 26. the onlyprojdct on the lowerpaut of themiddle reach, Xlaadi, (1944)MW I desiged to opee as a peakingplant supplying power to the Ctad China d via te Henangrid and to theNort Chin Gridvia the Shgd ThI hsadn capacitywas chose based on minium geneation of four boursper day in dry months. This is app iae considerg thevery low proportion of peakingplt In tbisgid. 27. The edstg Northwetgrld has a geneatn capacty mi whichinludes 48.5prce hydroplat Wih plannedaddit upun 2005S,e hydrocapciy add would be 9,440MW to 10,940MW depnding on wheer JikouIs connected. i comr wih requiredcapacity additions from Tabl A2of 15,046MW or 27,177MW dop_rAl on whet the growthrat i sevenor t pret. In theformer case the oval prpordonof hydroin thesystem would dso dgficmly, ad It likbythat th capacityfacto at whichhydro plant (opeatingon peak)would be reaquiedto opoet woude thedesig vdueof 25 pecent. T impliesthat it wouldbe a fewyears dter m bdr capacityadditions would fullyeffctive. However,if the stronginterconnecti reeroredto In pam. 1I proceeda tenavely planned,fhll capy wil be Immediaeyabsorbed. In ca of oadgrowth at a ten percentra, theproporton of hydrocVacity in th systm wod actally reduce,and hydro caty cod bo lly absorbi mmealy oa iaon, withor witout _. This wouldnot necsary makebth 1uneoni. Ie omeometa operationof hydroand trmal plantleads to a numbeof econoies. Moreoverthee are economiesof sharn of resv cacity, andload d sity, padcularlyin teationto to d Haenewbewee eastn and west ystm. to prminantly hmal sysm wouldalso redu the mimum timewhich hydro peakn plan wouldbe euird to opete providigmoro tng flility formultipurposO plA 28. hs existig Cal Chinagrid has a Sgnratingmix which inudes 40.6 peret hydrocapacky providing 40.4 perce of eg). Gi t sizeof the systemit shoudbe .216- A possibleto fly udi the peking capacy and th eeg from the Xaol projdct Immely afr Intalto Aswas demonsted In thestudies assocated with the evaluation of onl, It waspossible to utilizeXlaolangd In theHenan gd (whichs a subsetof th Cer ChInagid), wih thepeak power dad in the ena gridbeing about 3S prcent of lhatIn the C Chinagrid. THs I largelybecase a hig proportionof thehydro capacity Iuthe Cental Chinagrid Isbaso load (e.g., Gezhouba), ad is notfirm.

D. L40NGT1M ExPAmN PLAM

29. The 13 rmaiig projects will be dovelopedin the long term Le., aftr 2005. Mm prlncpal charactelmssoftheprojectsareglveninTableA4. ThecapacitytobeoiDstalleis about4,800 MW and the annual avege eneqy capabilityis 18,000 GWh. With thee devlopmes all theprojects fore downstreumof Longyaia wfllhave been deloped. As canbe see fromTable 3, twelveof theprolects wil includepower genetio Exluding Lougmenwhich has a large storag (anus the other projec have only daily regulation cqability. 30. her areother potental hydro projects (about 6,350 MW) on the tbutries ofthe Ydlow River upstreamof Lnp4 but due to ther rmotenessfrom loads, their deeopmentha so far not bee cnmplated andlttle nbmtion I able abot tm IL ECONOWUCIuesm aWErMo Powu 31. AbsolutebonefIt of electricityI aditonallyvalued on thebasis of 'willingness to pay', whichI oftencompued by addingthe averg tariffpaid by the conmer, to the estimatedconswr surplu. For use In resourceor benefitallocation eercises however, It b aprpit to useabsolut benefit or altenadvecost, whichever I thelower. 32. Chinahas la resevesof low costcoal, and m low costcoal fired generatng equimet 0 and g resoues are cuTly limitdt ad In view of th vau of oil as chical eedstoc~ the Governmenthas bamed It use for power geatin Nural gas generationexis In small amou, but only in areas wher gas is avaiable ad co is in sort supply.In th po serviceareas of YellowRiver electdc power, even In tfh NorthChin gid w has veryltlo hydroto providepeaking capacity, alteatve powergenation is limitedto coalfird thM plat 33. Thereore,if it canbe shownthat the *wIlIg to pa" is hiher ta thecost of a flredgation, theaot 'benefit to use in allocatonmodels is the costof coa firedgeatn. 34. Until1986, eleiy is ICi hadai beengrlly chnged since193 and wo wellbdow the margnl cost of suwly. Hower, at tt tim, th Chies Govemn raized th lge n is deticlty pricoswoultd be requiredto fiace electrictysysm sl WiMth aim, te traditionalpradi of grantfinancin was relcod by deb finaig of newpower plans, and a ewWpower/new priceW poicy was formlaed. his providedhat w consumptionabove 198S leels woud be at a 'new pri, computedso as to allowthe 'new power plantsto rea their debt. Since lectricity Ur_pIIv n,has almo doubledsince 1985, and demandi still cotained by supply,there b ampleeve that, at the margin,conumes are wllng to pay the nw powerprice. In the -217 -

NorthChina and Ctral Chinagrids where nw additionhave largely been coa firedplan, and wher dmand b parcary constrid a *wlliapess to pay ta based on coa gawaft coo is amplydemonrd. An evea ier *Huanen priceis beig pa!dfor power from a numberof co plat, fanced by exportcdis wIh shontmaures, commissoneddurig the ate 1980s.Therfo, It Is reasonableto condudetha Owlulngam to pay' exceedsthe altenatve cost of supplybasd on cod firedg rastion. 35. Generon costsfor coalplant at variouscapacity ftos was calculatedb on the following asumptions concerning economic costs and plant characerisics as shown in Box1:

Box1: FixedOpeatng Costs CapaciyCost Y 2830/kW(gerion level) Disbursements 10%,30%, 40 Yi, 20 % Economic Life 30 years AnnuityCost Y 409/kW O&Mper kW Y 85/kW(3 % of capal cost) Tota per sen outfium Y 697/kW(77 % avaiblity, 8 % auxiles) VariableOpert Costs LRMCco Y 110per ton Consumption 0.325 kg/kWh of standard coal of 7000 kcdlWh Fuelcst 0.0358/kWhgenerated 0.039/kWhsent out (8 % awuxares) Variableoperating cost Y 0.0005/kWh TotalVariable cost Y 0.0395/kWh Opatin Cosb at VariousDependable Capacity Factors CapcityFactor Costper kWh 16.67peren Y 0.517/kWh 25 per Y 0.358/kWh 78 perce Y 0.142AkWh

36. Theanmnal systm loadfactor of theHena grd is 78 percen Sice th system is l ly coa basd, the aue clculatd above,s ouldapoimt the LRMC at the st ou levelof thi sytm Adjustingfor 20 pen tanmision andditbutio costsad 7 peret distbuton losses,gives a costof Y 18.2/kWhat th cvel, whichi veryclose to the LJMC of Y 17.7/kWhesmated In te YanshiTherm SAR,which confim cstecy of th esd a roaches. 37. Sincethe hydro plants on the Yellow River ar deignedwith capat fczrs bas on firmener of arond 25 peret or 17 perce depning on whewr theyfed it the Northwest or otw syms, It I apropriat to ue the values deried aboe for -218--4 firmenegy. Sine themealld capacity filly supportedby firmenergy, the onlyvalue of secondaryeneg Is thevoidance of temal genation. ScondaryeneW, or ergyt ecess of firme , shouldbe valud ate varblo gonertioncost of 3.95 enlkcWh.J, In tie optimzationmodel, a sie benefitvalue has to be adoptedfor fim energy,this should be 35.8 fen&Wb coto t vafo r p fbedingitO the Northweegrid. Ihis would serveto Ihd thepowwe beefit durngdry monhs, by about S perct Overall in powe benfi estmatonfor tke pln ooncernedwould probably be in the orderof one pent However,thae wi be someutedecy to frc hydo generationin dry month In flcess of Xill I systemt+q_nments, whichmay tesultIn somerduction of otherbeneft. HYRO. PROJECTSON THE YELLOWRrVEI(

* lb Urns F1Ase Pmu 6md lbx osips bup Mob nilu Aefs Toed himbi Pta AMWas Cwui bow* .b~~mo Oai WId Head MWa libdags UsWAW Cope uIWuo Pbpdam Capai Iawo bm fiW Ob O T1~~iaqgraimpa5'-U-twdwt-d-a a am T W "inM3I U" P 0040** 6. tdiW

I*mbamod t- A M- oG m . a s O also Q* law sowp iMO t.e is nip onsm M ai=. S l06 Ub* "M "Mo us s e p p o na.oJ 5.At 0

I wag". Seam W" Of.0 114P M6 on tua up 44A Amo aso MO .5 1M34

II r- Gum - 1104..~a WA. * WS D* M5 141 so 16110 * ~~~ Gum- 1425* 611 bUg~~~~~~~~~~D 65 65 LA4 of soft 121"Mph- 1%41 *A1 5* an M 602 M5 la 14 N4Apar UB 1161 W. Dg 8n in OA U

a0 alwf mo b 1161.0~ up aS an6 11 6? Ii Sdip M1 No4 *A Uwts to l0Im H Mwag $W~m"" amP WA 4.1 asiI MS *A aU a2 OWqpqw hmwlbq 60W 66. .0 0* Asp 10 54 --df a- WA*md, H UWNhdM 1. OA. 410HessA 1M= Ito .212 M) 15105 to -m hwW- in" W^ 5. IA Odip ISIS0 2A bU Si w I shosv iwnsml m066412.7.0 AiMM "O s4o 615 )am Aloft N%%".l 655 10 l0* an an U -r s0mk5.A%" S0 uIp I.) Si Mo no LA u0 is Wlaqrn ShAlsM ~ SwWm 61 too3 1140 iAgd 240 mei LAbU is I s shmookm wmPU' 26. M. 0. -. 144 M.0 OA4b W g...mi Iumeb.m am 25.0 410 a5 16 an0 64 17.6samoaN MS weC 64013.611

W0Na ON" OmN 125. 414. *I 0* 0 Om so sum4 ~~ Hem aewo~m KS.,Msu to 46 06~ -220-

Tabe AZ: IAD GROwTuFoRzcAi 7 mcmir oaowraRATS TOTAL j I I

YBAM GBNXRATM(OWN MADAWDZM (M*) INSrALL CAPAClrY

NWPN NCPN CCPN NWPN NCPN CPN NWPN NCPN CCPN

199 60388 136874 135562 10180 18626 18162 11997 25921 280

2000 84698 19I72 190133 14278 26124 25474 16826 36355 39340

2005 118793 269251 266671 20025 36640 35728 23600 50990 55176

2010 166613 377539 374020 28086 51389 50110 33100 71516 77387

INCRDaAL

1995 17332 39285 38908 2922 5346 5213 3443 7440 8050

2000 41642 94383 93479 7020 12844 12524 8273 17874 19341

2005 757S7 171662 170017 12767 23360 22779 15046 32509 35178

2010 123557 280050 277366 20828 38109 37161 24546 53035 57389

10 PUENNTGROWTERA

TOTAL

YlR :I KN(OM) MAXUUMDBI IAL CAPAY M

NWPN NPN cCPN CCPN

1 1995 669342 157168 15S662 11689 21388 20855 13776 29764 32207

2000 111676 253121 250696 18826 34445 3358 22186 4793 518

200 179856 4076 403748 30319 55474 543 35731 77200 8W538

2010 28965 65653MM 65020 4889 8m341 87118 57544 124331 134539

INRWYAL

1995 26286 59579 59008 4431 8108 7906 5222 11283 12209

2000 68620 155532 1S4042 11567 21165 20638 13632 29454 31872

2005 136800 310064 30704 23061 4214 41144 27177 51719 63540

2010 246603 558941 555586 41571 76061 74168 48991 105850 114540 = ! - - Zeee-_ m - ,YDRO PROJECTS PROPOSEDTILL THE ME OF THE 10 PLAN (2005)

mNees Pthl@m It_ KoSm Tytd bibed Ftur Avhm Cape* hSm*. raw W"Wal kw" agol_ QGd WW fu m Cehy P EW taw Ddo. de* IO Loa 'MW (M) (094 (ICo(d

2 a s Oa 245b a 3 8673 9740 29.9 ' -' ". '-52. 4 Gabmi agwim ?IP 2006.0 l* 1500 371 4700 35.6 1996005 IA 133. tt Did Bam RWPt 1480.0DAlY 300 1470 AO, t151.1965 4.6 153 13 MPDudu Nad Z NWI" 1300.0Ahm 90 530 8070 48.0 19664005 35 159.4 la WaPal s MWOW&A.i Ct 960,0 san IWO MS 2156 29*2 tst-2 17.8 1645.4 21 WA 811_ONSIGWAll NWJEINCru 785, An" 1 2 350 39. 196600 24940 16ow 27 MP l CCPH 2750 Ssd 1944 570 345 199100 5 174.9 hOtAL 14964 3775 38.

)^OAI n...... ,, ,.._ . _ |_ .t - .. _. _...... ______...... _ ......

a$' I e

4*^. . a ~~~~~TableA4 222 *

M ll} I~' I"I -

5l ii.RegEs} 8~~~~~~W

1-~~~~~3 ll10gi« 1}3 |l

4 o aasa,a ...F.. 223 -

Monthly CapacityVariation

.0~~ ...... ii ...... - ......

......

- ~Month (Jan-Dec)

., se v .. 4_ I 4

I l , i :*, ;. A -224-AS ANS"~E~uJ

Monthly Energy Variation

_ - _ _ _ _ _ 10 - _ _ _ _

t......

4 :M1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month (Jan-Dec)

| 1 1990| - 225 - A-

Typical Load Duration Curve 2005- November

0,7-

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Time 0%)

2f00E5 -226-

INVESTMENTOPTIONS TABLES

Tlibb 1: YEUOwRIVI: PLANND I GATION DEVE 9u To 2000

lvlal At lowvse. cnrrent "-'~~ 1ev or Expandedtg 2000Improved }g 0ls

Project Name Location Ier Contln. C mp--) tt6e

1. 12 Imall-edimN cte L ?! Olaa 1evr 0.24603 4. lnvarnslBDlvers a cowtla. 0.811 5. a I an Contl. 0.300 6. w,mpetil xIbd Schemes aanen Contin. 0.700 1.250 570.000 7. Cao *Dyf nLift Gasas 1ev 0.021 .00RS 8.Lsa L:D s Gan0n 21 Mi4& .ou,Yield Wield S:I0. _1. Dr ee Works lRlia Coatin. 1.920 205.000 . tig rchem linga Contin. 40.000 12. *ng 310 New 0.600 154.00 13.T aMg!U 305 Contin. 0204 2 0 14. w L t 320 Co6tin 00026 15. Yueya0s~Laxt lingua 1ev 0.044 odgath~. g Lift INngxia 1ew 0.050 . MetaoI e4n ~~~~~~~~~~33Contin.. 071 240 .h:Tsoteeh"^,i eSmex 66 Coatla. j1160 730 > 19.80utn Bantu 1ese 470 Cotin. 0.800 0.590 44 DQ. Yiel ~ Qd " 450-460 Contin. 0.126 0.7:U P. Se,ts4«Iil e4nonB 1360 Cot.2.00 3 Imprpvean s ann4 Contin. 1.31S 12.4?? 7 6.0QO -23. °i81tl 8;auml 920-930 NQW 0.855 0.410 .000 24. Reservoir 7606oe 1e 0 0.50000 a. iela eservoit SE"^1 1050 new 0.220 0.l50 .OQO DwpsvaentShanxi Contin. HIS10 3.400 28. Xuanqpan~sl erv.olr 8pnfl,Now 0.200.50d 760 Contin. 0.300 0.200 000 30. L¢it_ontl. 0.367 . 31. Zesa lt nn4Nw - -. 0 -0.zO00O 3. & Low Yield Land. gmpoveseut KenanCotn 1.3 1724800 33 n a5 Works ea ew300- 34.l Con in.t 1.470I, 2.750'-ot 36. o14 Gofl. & Drainage H,ev 1evlContat.' 9.0 Fe= In.~~. Q 1?.2 8 Coatia. 0. 44 0.80 3.000 7. P 38.*S8baE DDShndgZ ong Coatin. 0.89 0.900 430.00 41. XiBghad Dike Coatin. 0.550' 0.350 50.000 Contin. 1.300 0.810 '6.000 liverCotrs Dev't Shao8Coatin. 1.000 2.O 4.othorIriato oaoogpt,S,.0472h0 - 4p9s.O 4d, Small-scale Irrig. J-sr-vide - -3 941 19.652 3.963 11.S0O.0OO

A e Pervoireiqsan eqp1ded and e xetated irr tet areas are d4mi it -tnearea avaiJ,ie in 2000 viii eesoms po fon. However,*-tsoet eIts.are torwaorksoperationsl i 2000. . Po

. ins , '. - L -227 - AM

SHORT-TO DMADEDROPOE LN DErU tal Us *am TAMfmFAuus Cmam 2000

t , | }.4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~140 toX501

6° P ;~6§8"8{30

Table 20s Sumr 1au Rn At a Cama Cm 2000

llo sam 1 1 " x . v owv. Rbt- 'ttt. Uvm Avg.C.

I llPLoasxa 60 I,m9 24*70 193.5 Ihtt- 1,280 5 ,940 33.0

; ~~~Inl 2ete1200

. ~., ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .

!.5,893lSso D'°or3stD

^ . t {.5~~~~~~~~~~~ 8303

;B t 1967-9t 1991-2000 56 it1 133 1,11 ¢onr.

i0 9 ft *§ } ° ,~~~~~~~~:?328 to Dar*" 26 w a 7ffs-H75 1 8 ~~4, o.o 1,187 Woc. a ;w ~~~~~~~~63.6

SA 2ds 2a Tm tm rAmn a Ows=l 2000

. . ! 9 . . . 8 t ~~~~~~~Con.p4.da Rattlm lme( tlO4 w3Bt tl1'-t) (104

MP ,:, . is

9 a I }3 lSi 38°*9 0olS 0 49~~I 1 3 g ~~~~~~~~~~~42 . 63 6.86°57 1.93

261VP , f thrt 10 2,236 238. 96°4 31.8 TOTAL 6,468 1,27S.8 121.2 41.57 -228-

MEDIM DAMSAND RIYDRPOWERPLANS Table 3. TUw i 11Aam2m Paolos oaJComwLm kiuu 2000-2010

Power Normal laux Location Grid Water Read Dee No Nm CouatylProviuce Level Level Heal m a

2 Lauiwa Guide, QH NW 2,452.0 220.00 4 Gongboxia Xunhus9 QI NW 2,005.0 103.0 13 HP Daliushi Zhongwe±,U NW 1,380.0 141.0 18 Waajtazha±Zhungeer, NM/Piangun, SI NC 980.0 80.5 21 MP Q$kou Wubao,SA%/Lin County, SX NW,NC 785.0 120.4 27 MP X±aolangdi Mengjin,NI CC 275.0 141.9 TOTAL

Table Sb YEUWOWu UZI M FAuCLInS P'IonDm 10 ConnLon 51i1aw 2000-2010

lDst. FIm Avag. Cec. no Name vg. Was. lesetv. Active 'I' love:r nerI lctot D". Dr. CarmcI S10'8 aga2 CapaC. ~7?~~7'~ l0~ _-1to/?10&88 e(IW) 108 (NW) tG1r (2

2 Laid= n.a. U.S. 10.0 1.5 Daily 3,720 873 9,740 29.9 4 n.a. n.a. 2.9 2.0 Daly 1,500 371 4,700 35.J 13 MP Daliushu n.e. n.a. 110.3 55.0 Annual 1,920 530 8,070 48.0 to Venji atne. ne 9.0 4.5 Seea 1,020 187 12,2 31.6 21 BP QLk6u na a a 124.8 27.0 1,500 349 5,150 39.2 27 MHp iaolangdi n.a. 1560 126.S 50.5 Season 1,944 5,870 34.5 U5| IOTA 383. 140.48 11.604 36.3S0

Table3is w vRun1zurns Imumanm CamumauuUumn 2000-2010

Servic Plan Date (1 0.88 Y1k D T)pe No Nam Date (ACIost.) (owperonly)

2 Laxlwa 1996-2010 31.7 852.2 coocr.d.c. AD 4 Gopabozia 1996-2010 19.9 1,326.7 rockflll D 13 NP Dalb.u 1996-2010 68.0 3,541.7 earth-stoneD to 1991-2005 17. 1,7451 ea32:rtson 21 UP Olkou 1996-2010 24.4 1:762,627 1,232 GD ar. 27 IP Kiacleugdi 1991-2000 52.0 2,674.9 1,678 earth-tona D

Table34d Tuma gim liou.ruuPmIRm sa CmIwous Sums 2000-2010

No same Poundation Da n ock Con- Inund. se8ettled lelht micm". crte 14Pol4laladt Rock (my (10A4 m3) (10-4 mu) (10A4)

0.02 2 Lselva granite 250 642 370 0.02 4 Ooao3 urts gusisa 133 2,011 115 0.53 0.3 : 13 NP sand-rock-rat. and phyllite 160 3 981 175.6 4.98 5.55 90 100 170 0.34 0.22 I& Wanjiashal limeroak 5.37 21 up mOandebAle 140 3,963 129.7 7.86 27 MP XsalangG$ sand lyer 173 9,077 340 16.95 13.76 TOTAL 19,774 1,300.3 30.68 25.22 -229- -

LONGWTERM DAMS AND HYDRPOWER PLANTS o COMPL N AmFu 2010 Table 4"I YELM? MU VACUhs btojon lover Noral Ma: Res. Act. Type NO Rawe Provine GrSId Water 8ead Cap.. Stor. RUs. os ugion Level Level 10^8 se

DaIly Q8 NW 1.850.0 63.0 4.2 2.2 S Jisdalu Iu, IV 1,760.0 24.0 Daly 6 Sieu QEIOS 1,495.0 14.5 Daily 10 a Lohou, G8 NW Daily Jingyvan,GS lf 1,435.0 10.7 12 Wajinul II 1239.0 0.1Dal 14 8b1uZoavi 1,075.5 10.5 4.1 Daily 16 ZNWN 35.5 1.8 0.9 Dal 19 nlioa,S 897.0 7'1 SI UiUC 665.0 26.0 1.5 0 9 Daily 22 Zwhuge sNWlNC 638.0 21.0 1.3 1.1 DaIly 23 8aaJ4 Vubao, ShXIL1n,SK 590.0 199.3 114.0 43.6 Anagal HP Lluau#. lichaan,SA4Li,I±BIIJ 8S NW5NC DaU 24 Hnbn, le n WN 390.0 23.5 0.7 23isuo ax C 133.0 14.5 1.3 0.2 Daily 28 n RaMenojIa, 114.0 24.7 29 Taobayu Zbengzhou,ED ,153.7 48.9 TOTAL

Table 4b: Y.LLO IVu YACITE PaoPoswD MoaComn ou Ar 2010 Invest NO Nme luet. Pirm Avg. Cap. Plan Invest. Capac.Power Energy Paitor Date (Y 10'8) YJkW (MN) (NW) (GWh) (m) (All Costs) 1,200.0 Jishitia 750 2,840 43.2 >2010 9.0 5 1,000 45.7 >2010 5.3 2,120.0 6 sigouxia 250 5.2 2,600.0 10 iLteozi 200 830 47.4 >2010 W%j inx±a 132 570 49.3 >2010 6.8 5,151.5 12 370 52.8 >2010 0.5 625.0 14 Sha otou 80 3.4 3,400.0 16 Raibo an 100 370 42.2 >2010 400 1,240 35.4 >2010 4.6 1,150.0 19 Longkou 6.0 2,000.0 22 Jundu 300 920 35.0 >2010 Sanjiao 200 700 40.0 >2010 4.4 2,200.0 23 7,950 43.2 >2010 55.0 2,619.0 24 Mp Lougmeu 2,100 7.3 5,069.4 25 Yum.nkou 144 610 48.4 >2010 150 620 47.2 >2010 5.9 3,933.3 28 Xfxiayuan 12.7 29 Taohuayu >2010 2.623.8 TOTAL 4,806 18.020 42.8 126.1

Table4cs YELwORiVm lAcxuTxuPsopossD YOR ConanLoN Arm 2010

oundation Dam Rock Coa- Resettled No Nm Dam H.I?ht Ex"av. crete a . Type Reck (or (10A4 .3) (104 au) Won)

sand-gravelVI sandstoane 8 100 130 0.12 0.23 5 Jishbixa concr. GD 54 150 50 0.9 0.76 6 SlgouxIA coacr.gat D gIelss 70 47.9 coacr. gat D quarto,s.-.a, seblst 61 0.73 10 Stooxi D plauoclas ranite 54.5 110 68.6 0.7 12 uJiaz coner.st 13.5 29 7.3 14 Shapotou gates-eir sanJehle 2 sa- layer 14 304 42 16 Ebiboana gato barrag 48 50 65 0.01 InRbrn concr. GD lImerock 0.33 0,21 19 D 3sadsule39 344 101.9 22 Juadu concr.sate 30 127 60.5 0.21 0.41 23 Seniteo coocr. late 0 sadohaul 1.86 0,36 D ule 216 7,885 197 24 UP Loeaea earth-stone San18 48.5 1,892 82.6 25 Yume sakougte - earth D san layer 0.71 D sa pebble 37 503 80.7 28 &ateSlutaynan - earth 23 2.646 105 9.6 6.1 29 Tao suayn8ate - earthD sand lager 14,210 1,038.5 15.72 11.56 TOTAL - 230- AS=EB6

TBE BASINLEVEL MODEL (BLM

A. OBWNVE

1. The study(IFS) seeks to deofi a prospective,plan for nvest t in agscultura andwaer re cesin theYelow River Basn over the n 20 years. In doingso, it mustf prest a quately conistentpicture of watersupply and demand. This Is a complextak becauseof the highdee of uncetaintysurui systemInflows, the eitence of thr larg reservoirs,and wide divergence in irrigationand municipal. ad Idustri (M) dmands oth eit planningregions of thebasin. Additionalcomplexities arie fromthe need () to retainreserir stor to controlfloods, sediment loads, and ice jam (2)to takb advantageof thepowererating capabilitiesof thereservoirs and n-of-rver plants,and (3) to ensurea minimmflow at theestay. 2. Oncea quantitativpictureof thepresent (1990) stui isobtained, the analytical fwork duld be flexible nouh to (1)be u as a projectiontool for analyzigthe siuton in 2000and 2010, (2)to qunfy the primary am of majorInves 1i the system,and (3) provide economic evaluations of all scenariosand rough measures of befts fromthe prposal investments. 3. A constrainedopmization approach is kenfor the basin level modd because it Isassumed that the rdevat Chineseauthorities wis to obtainmaximum eoonomic benefit from the opeationof the systemas wel as iestme in the system,subject to a vaiety of hydrologic,physical, and agonmic constrats. Additionaconstra reled to equityor distutionalssu my alsobe Imposed. A noinea progrmmg (NILP)sture hasbee selectedInstead of the morecommon lnear I aproachprimarily beu of the nonlinearitiesinvolwd in hydropowergeneation and In theendogeo relationshIpsibetween cropwater stess andcrop yields. TheNLP obviously offes muchgroater flexibility in model sUVCtr at onlya relaivy smallpremi in solutiontime. . 4. A solutionrepreset on yearonly, but the yea canbe slectd as 1990.2000, or 2010. In addiion,a veion hasbeen prepard whichsolves for eah of th 56-years of avaiablerunoff data in succession.

S. TheBLdM is witten in GAM (Genal AlgebracModelg System)which uses dt nonler solverMINOSS. The completeGANS which,n cudes.al dataan4 solutionrepotig facilities,is appended.Ihe modelcan be rumon an advancedp'ersonl compuer,worktaton, or maifme computer. -231- AINEX6

D. SrtTaucrv Of TimsDLM OvERviEw

6. Thecor of the BKMIs a networkof nodes and connectingarcs commonto simulaionmodds. Watere s the systemat selted nodesas endogenouslygiven runoff, and is dirtedtdhough the systemaccording to preddinedpaths. Certan nodesrepresent offtake possibilitiesfor rigatio and/or M&I demands. Somenodes representrun-of-river hydropower plants. servoirs ar unique nodesin dot Inflowsmay be stored fbr later release; each rsevoir lso has an ssociatedhydwpower plant, and most have oftae possibilities. Other nodesar includedbecause reports on water balancesare desiredfor compaisonwith similar data avalle esewhere.

7. Each node i constrainedto be in balanceon a monthlybass, i.e., the sum of inflowsfom upsteam nodes plus runoff, plus return flows from previousdiversions, plus relases from age (if a reservoir)must equa flows to the next downstreamnode, plus diversionsto agricultureand M&, plus retainedstorage if a reservoir),plus losses. S. Irrigatedagriculture is represete in eah of seven regionsfor the four major riaSed crops wheat, co, cotton, and paddy. Basedon availableirrigated area, a fixed croppingpattr, and given monthlycrop water requirementsnet of effectiverainfall, a ideId diveion patternis detemined. Accordingto the avaiabilityof water in the system ndits opportmityvauo dsewhere the outcomesare possible:(1) ful yield is obtainedand th entir igat areais cropped;(2) the entirearea is e ed, but yieldsare reducedbecause of watershortg; (3) yield are teducedand part of the irgated area is operatedas rainfed. hus th modelendogenusy detmine boththe Irigat areafor each'cop and its resutant yieldwith a give watersupply. 9. M&! demandsare givenas requiredmonthly offlakes where relevant, and for the gven scou year. ITey Includecetin extrabasintransfers. In the eventtgat M&Idemalds canot be met in a verylow inflowyear, ardflcialwater supply variables are activatedto alert Plns to th poteti short.wi

10. Hydropowerenergy output is computedendogenousy for eachreservoir and major ru-of-rver plant,and exogenously for otherrunof-river plants, in eachmouth. For reservoirs, eney outputis a functionof the net head andthe dbarges tbroughthe powerhouses. Net head i eandogenulydetermined by fanctionsrelat reservoirstorage and elevation,and dicharge and tailwaterelevaions. Net head is assumedto be given forrun-of-riverplants. Iherefore, energyoutput from dhem Is computedoutside the modelfor the flowsin the relevant river re&s/ Disages tbrugb the powerhousesare determinedas releasesfrom the reervoirup to the limit of powerhotusecapacity.

1, The YRCChas considere a 'vwietyof allocationntsu A&i tanmsn MA! uac as weIlas I,inaatwrIiolow-4nflow yeam . Becaus M&I is and will liely emaina reaieysmfiamount of tota diversons,and the demnduscan be met eve in P95years, we have not a to mod Us anr They nay,.toducd howwvr, be 'ata laterdate. I1 Cmputngnu-f-rivopmn outputas an a-postmoe solutiosa 24equations and 24 variables per plant,and th reducessouo tim. A testof themodel with and without all butthe major ruaof-vwerplans sowed dtst h reultbdiffered by lessd 1 pecent in tus of totalenergy -232- ANNEX6

11. Floodprtion, sedimentcontol, and evironmentalprotecdon measures are includedin the modd as ither resctions on reservoiroperating procedures, or as constraints on flowin river reaches. For eachreservoir, upper and loweroperatng limitslimit the storage permittedIn eachmonth. Floodprotecton measures imply that the dowstreamrrirs must be neardead storage at the onsetof the floodseason, and mustremain low untl this seasonhas pased. In the ice Jam reachesprone to river flows must be restricted(through reservoir control)in the coldestmonths t limitflooding. Miniinm flowsin each monthae ampted in the last reachto minimizeecological damage to the estuary.

12. the objectivefnction is valueadded from Yellow River water. Ith valueadded Is measuredin economicprices for Irigated agriculureplus the economicvalue of the energy produced,bsed on willingness-pay. Becausethe priorityranking of YellowRiver water demandsensues dt M&Irequirements are metfirst, an economicevaluation of M&Iwater Is not relva to the optimalsoludon, but couldbe includedgiven estimates of benefit. 13. A soludonto the modelprovides the followingInformation: 1) Monthlyflows in all river reah 2) Monthlyreservoir storage and elevation 3) Monthlydiversion to agricultureand M&I 4) rigat area by cropin eachregion 5) igatedare used as rainfedlend by cropin each region 6) Watershortage for eachcrop in eachregion 7) Resutantyield and productinnfor eachcrop in eachregion 8) Energyoutput of each reservoirand powerplant 9) Energy spilled"by eachreservoir 10) Valueadded from Irigat agriculture 11) ECnomicvalue of enerw output 12) Shadowprices of waterat eachnode and in each month 13) Economic'costs' of each constrainton flowsor reservoiroperating rues 14. Thecomplete model contins about800 equations (200 of whichare nonlinear)and 1,300variables. It solvesin about3 minuteson a 486 personalcomputer.

C. STucnJtn OFTmH LM:DrEAS 3I

NodeStructie 15. The YRCChas definedmore than 250 nodes in the YellowRiver Basin;they reprsent suchpoint as eisting d proposedreservoirs and barrages, all type of offiakes,and conflueneswith tributaries.U A subsetof thesewas selectedfor the BLM,numbering about 30, ding on the verso. A node was Includedin the BLMonly if the followingcrteia

I/ In lieuof inchluingan algebraicsaement and a listingof all datain the modelhere, we hv pndd te completGAMS saement M/ Nodesan desciedin 'YellowRiver Basi NoosDes onReport, * YellowRiver BaDs Wator ResoncesBonomic Modlln Studyppe (August6, 1991),available in theIvestmen Planning Stud files - 233 - ANN 6 wer met: the node represetd either a reservoir, an inflowpoint for which data were avaable, a pointwhere significant offtakes for rrigton and/orM&I ocu, or a pohitwhich the YRCCcommondy uses to meue flows in the basin. Nodesmay be addedwith little difficulty,providing the appropriatedata exist. Figure1 showsthe mnor nodesIn the system, and Figure2 showsthose nodes where flowsenter the system. Water entersthe systemas nmoffat each node with a curvedarrow, and Is routedfrom nodeto nodeacrding to the straightarrows.

16. Waterdemands are disaggregatedby the sevenregions and by sector(irrigation and municipal/dustial). Oneor moreofftale nodesare assumedfor eachregion. For example, the node at Lanzhoucity suppliesM&l water to Lanhou an Irrigationwater to Region2. Figure3 showsall offlakenodes. Routingto irrigatedareas and/or M&I destinations is shown as hatchedarrows. 17. A given node may serve severalfimctions. Lahou, Hekouzhen,Longme, Sanmenxia,Huayaukou, and Lijin are amongthe gaugingstations on the YellowRiver, so each is includedso thatwater balance reports may be geneatedand comparedwith other data. Each lso servesa differentpurpose, e.g., as an offake, inflowpoint, or reservoir(Sanmenxia).

ir ted Agicalture 18. For each irrigatedregion, the modelis designedto detmine the areathat can be drigategiven inflows and competingdemands, the cropsgrown on the irrigatedarea, and the reslting yields,production, and economic retum. Thebasic data required by the modelinclude effctive irrigatedarea, the irrigatedcropping panern as percentageof the majorirrigated crops (wheat,corn, cotton,and paddy),the crop calendars,ihrigation quotas by crop and monh effectiverainfall, expected yields, and cropwater-yield response paraeters. Thes basic data are given in the GAMSTABLES AGDATA, CROPAT, CALENDAR, WREQ, EPPRAIN,and YLDSIRR. Pricesand costs used to computeeconomic returns are given In AGPRICEand AGCOST.

19. Whenwater suppliesare ample,the modelwill irrigateall of the effecive area accodingto the prespedfiedcropping patter withthe full quotaof irrigationwaer and obtain the fl erpectedyield. This result mightbe expectedundecurrent conditionswith a P25 inflowregime. If watersupplies are insufficient,the modelta the optionof reducingspplies to wheatand/or corn, belowthe quotasin certainmonths and suffeing a loss in yield. The reationhip determiningthe yield reductionis taken from U.N. Food and Agricultur Orgizadion (FAO)studies.2/

If in Chinesusage, effective irngateduas is tht area for whichconwv c and distibUtio facuilitiesexst andtberefoe may be irrigatedgivSn sufficient a upplies.It rpeents anupper bond for *actual"irigated area, whichis repoted an an anul basis.

I #Quotas"rflec desid, thoughnot y optimal, riaon appcesu V DescUibedin FAO, yeld Respoe to Water,rrigationad Driag Ppe#33, Rom, 1975.Mbe patametersused were taken frm FAO'sCROPWAT softwarev. 5.7 (1991)wich has beenudate fromthe 1975paper. 4 ..

FIGUREVIL1SCHEMATOOF YELLOW RFISN SHOWI MAJORMODES

ONQTOM~ ~V0 a0A S

. o VL 0* 0.

IMMANA~ ~ ~ ItAAYMIWDG

ERmmIww..rEW. POE MOVUM NOW ro .ms l'~~ -,' * -g/N

'~~~~0

*Ii.~~~~~~~~~~.i W3URW8XILSCHEMAT10OOFELDPURM E M11I NOm MMeUIWREUIA*Dt&ioR.UoWAMm

SANSHEN(30N0

SP~~Ak

40"~~FMAURYH acaL~ U. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 8~ DAUU&M~ ~~n*u~ n-i~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~N I / Y00 umeoM

WNBTMA AL

ML U& W 1:8svm POWRPL Mr Ow-ROD RO PJBMMOMMMVALE St4EIU - 237 -AN 6

20. Therelationship employed for crop yild repon to waterIs given as

(1 - YalYm) = ky(l - ETa/ETm) where(1) Ya and Yma actul andmadmum yieds obtaiable retpecively,ETa andET actual iation andthat requd fr YMfor a partculargrwt stage,and ky Is the response ctor.If ky 1, yIed respo 'ei pportional to wat defict; ky > 1 mplies responseeat th proportional(elastic); and ky < 1 Impliesless than prortlona repos (inelastic).RearanIn (1) gives: Ya = Ym- Ym* ky(1-ETETm) (2) whichIs linearwith repect to ETa. Forthe growth stage under consderation, the model takes ETmas the sumof the irrigationquotas over the monutsof the growthstage plus ffeidve rainfalldoring oe monts. ETais the same fectiverainfal plusthe avaiableIrigation water.I The ratioETa/EITm i boundedat unity,which implies that Yacot exceedYm, andat .5 acordn to FAOsuggested use of thetechnique. 21. Thistechnique allows crop life to bedivided into growth stages and provides a fully flaebleyidld response. The ky pare givenfor eachgrowth stge. In the Ydlow River case, a limation on a sWe growt stageIn whichshortages are relevat aears to be a viablesimplification beca sortage usualyappear (or aremost Inen) durig thesprWing monthsof March-June.Thus a pot stressperiod can be definedfor wheatand orn, (GAMSSMO). Tee stressperiods diff by cropand region, depe g on thecrop calenda. Anexample will Ilute theuse of thetechnique In the model. 22. In regin SA,the rrigationquotas for wintr wheatand effective rainfl overthe crop' grwing peiod, bothIn cubicmeter/mu, are: NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Qwta 48 2 48 51 45 Effetlverain 11 2 3 3 8 20 14 28 Ym for winterwheat is 225 kgh/m,the stressperiod 1s definedas March1-May 1S (thOe developmetstage), and ky for hisstage Is 0.6. ETmisthus (48+51+45/2+8+20+1412) 156.5. Supposesystem-level shortages rest in only 30 mn/mu of water in March. The restat yiedis22(10.6)(156.5-138.5)I156.5J -211.S. Ihe 11.5peeneshortaeiIn ETa resultedin a yielddecline of 6.9 percent,which Is 0.6 (theky)*11.5 prent. 23. Of cours, themodel does not supposedth a shortagewil ocur In Marchin RegionSA and tha the economicloss cased by the shor wil be in the wheatcrop. Throughits optmzationof economicreturns to YellowRiver water, it will autmaicaly minimizethe loss fromany shoa. It mayfind it lesscosdy to strea wheatin anohr region, or eveacorn Instead of wheat. All of theao dataare necessary for themodel to

IV Forpedi both a andETin ekuld" h ual oil moistmdeat sta of do grwh stageand moirplifdiam groundwaerthro cuiar f r Datato romVtd Dwto m warenotavailable, lroba risjue to be mUbindon fam a similarappcado of emtchnqs in Pastn -238 - AS=E 6 maie a decion For example,oths tg holdconsot, thelower the productvy of the rego, themmo stess to modelwM atmpt to llocateto it; the lossproable (in ecoomc terms)a cap is, the mmorss It will Incurrelative to othercrops; the higer thbeky corrsponDingto the tm of sottge, the more stmr a cropwill Incur,etc. 24. If watersupplies are so g thateven the maximum ess ( pondig to ETa/ETm 0.5)canot compensate,the te moddhas the opdtoof usinga pori¢onof to igate lad underthe cropas raiofd land(which s equval to reducing acal irrigted areabeow 'effective). In thi case,no Idot waterI requred,and only rainfed yields are obtned. 1hs is ncesay becausesuch stuam occu often,as shownby thevariablity In rportd acul rdga ar. t lo Ipi t this potio of the modelbomes nonine. The objectvefuncton depend In lar part on the tot prodction of each crop. Withthe abovedescrbed treatmet of stress,yields ar rbles, andwhen tie area ri underea crop s madea vaiablea wel, thenprducton becomea poductof twovarables. FurthermorEa andETm become variables because they depend on thearea hnvolved. Water Deey System 25. BothItion and MM demandsart, gruped by region. In oac regio, a parular nodei deigne as th ofke fromt ) mainstem for tha regins supplies.The exceptionsae regionSA, which b also supplied Wecyfrom the Fen River, and SB, which Is als supplieddirectly from the Wei. Anin2Hc1 cana netwokdibuts te suppiesto th fam nd henceto thecrops. Becausotieres lite or no tro on diesions aft dhepoint of offtab, t I no needto mod the cana systemeplickly Is donein similarmodls such astat for the1nu Bin. hes arelose beweenthe mainsm andthe firm, dqeding on can efficinc, ad beod t pointthere are alo le In the fld. Thus,of wat diered fiomthe ma_tem (1-)*(1-F,)is wavle forcrop consumptive use, where C.Is the can efficiy andF. Is thefield efficiency. Thes de enciesar deivedfrom the YRCC utlation study,and are s in Table1 aggrae to therego usedby the mode).For example,tot lossesIn regio 3Aamount to 74.5pece of divheons. Viewedanother way, 4.08m of watermust be dieted to sply 1 m?to thecrop. T1bb1: DNo I DOacN=ADmREURN FACWS

Region CoeldM SUIfLeGIMenoieator 1990 2000 1990 2000 1990 2000

1 0.55 0.59 O.8S 0.85 0.11 0.05 2 0.55 0.59 0.85 0.85 0.11 0.05 3k 0.51 0.57 0.50 0.60 0.29 0.25 3B 0.53 0.58 0.50 0.60 0.16 0.07 4 0.56 0.60 0.81 0.83 0.14 0.09 5k 0.54 0.60 0." 0.90 0.16 0.10 5S 0.55 0.60 0.85 0.875 0.15 0.09 6 0.55 0.60 0.85 0.875 0.1s 0.10 7k 0.54 0.60 0.70 0.75 0.03 0.08 7B 0.54 0.60 0.88 0.90 0.04 0.08 - 239 -AN

26. Partof theImss rechag groundwater,and part evenuay findsIt wayback to do rlver as retnflows.' Table1 also dkhowertumnftrsthese asrethe factions of cn lossesrernig to theriver. We asmed at thisrer occursin themonth foblowing dhesl1. Noteta as canl officiencaar projectedto inase overtime, reurn factors deldinecorrespondingy. Reroi Opeaton 27. Rerois differffom other on-dver nodes In the availabilityof storage(which perm flowreltin), eaorton losssathey incur, ad in th determiationof energy ouput. Informaonreqired by themodel includes live storage capacity; evaporation loss rates; fnionaleaonshps betweenreservoir storage and pool elevation, and between discharge and tl waterelevation, and 'limit curves to limitthe impliedoprating procedures. Inormation geneted by the modelincludes storage at the endof eachmonth, the correspondingpool clevation,discharges to anyoffiaes, dscages throughthe powerhouses, spils, andlosses. 28. Us GAM RESDATAdees thelive storae capacity,and RLO and RUP define the opratg limt as proporto of thiscapacity. The GAMSVARIABLE RCONT, which ters nd -monh ervo storage,I restictedto be widhinthese limts. Figure4 shows the opertinglmts imposedon th modelfor the three eiinlarge reservoirs-Longyanxia, Liuaa, andSaninea-and theprposed Xiaolangdl reservoir. 29. ese lmis hxvebeen derivedfrom avaiabledispatch cht for -normal opeatingyeas. Thoydo ot crespond to real-tm opeati rle curves,nor do theyaffec howthe mod peratewihin the limits (a smallpremi in theobjective fuion ensuresthat, whenpossible, reservois wil be keptat theupper limit). Wediscuss each reservoir in turn. 30. a .Longy isthe lrest reservoiron themain stem, and will remain so becauseno ofthe pposed projectscomes close to lts 18.Sbi1ion mi of usablesuorae. Its fucdon Isprimary hatof delctrciyproduction, and its erationis controlledby Ministry of Eneg (MOE). Une curent demands,Loanala has ubnl excesscapaq ifor multiyearstorago. Howver, the available -oes dr notprovide an indicationof how muchstoe is to be reservedfor fture yea, or howthis sta is to be allocatedin caseof dmogL As shownin thefigure dead sto maybe reached at the endof June,the onset of the summerflood season. The *reducedoutput zone," affe all othermonths, means that dicha, andhence hydro output, wil be curiled untl the ount storedreaches levels abovethe curve. Thiscurve indaM the model'slower opetg limit. 'he upperlimit is 2,600mn, the "nomal pool level* acept for the summer flood season (the end of Juneto theend of Auus). Duri thisperiod, levds kept at 2,594m or belowby passingout all inflowas quily aspossfle. hispr 23 bMion ofnm floodstoage andaother 2.8 billion en of emegeq floodsag up to the pointof checkingflood crests at 2,607m. 31. Ihtjla. LiauiW's primay fimctonis floodprotection for the Lanzbou- Rebouzh reach s wellas ener productonand Iriato Durin tie summerflood season, wat lels ar heldat 1,726m, providg 1.0bi mi of nom floodstorage and 0.25 billionen of eme ogencysorg. Liujixa also sere as a reservoirfor protectg the northrnm reachesfrom koe jasT upperlimit flectsthis: at th endof Febnry, 0.50 billione fsorg arereserved so that flows to thenorthern reaches may be limited to mitigate -240 h12 freezingand floods f*om ice jams. Thelower limit 1 1,696throughout the year,just above deadstorage. 32. S. In theabsence of a reservoirat Xaolangdl, Sanmenia must bearo the entireburden of floodprotue for thelower reach, both for summerand for wit icejam floods. Lito filiby is left sic live storageb onlyabout 1.75 billo mn. Furthermore, Samenilas operaon mustbe carly conwtod to peet furthersitation. Only lmied eney output possible,and ther i lttlo roomfor consida oF dowam Irrigation needs. Fromthe end of June to oarlyOctober, wae lovls ae ket at or ner dead stra approximately305 m. nflow, typicay hevy aen wit sediment ar immdity pas throu. Fromearly October until md-ecember, InlMows may be streadOf they are relatively silt-fre) up to a limitof betwee 317and 321 m. Onlyafte mid-March,when the dar of iceforms in thelower reach has passed, may fiull storag at 326m be used. Shortlyafer that, however,water is relesed for a combinan ofreason: sedimentfushing, Irigation demands, andthe need to returnto near-deadsrae levelby theonset of theflood season at the endof June. Ihe loweropeating limlt for all monthsis tae to bethe approxim deadstorag level of 305 m. 33. aMobndl. Xlaolgdls primay purposewi be to controlflooding along the lowerreach, with secondary functions of sediment trapping and management, power geneao, and rrigat suply to Henan.and Shadong provies. ly, It willhave about 12.5 bIio re of livesto4e capacity,but thds wil declinerapidly to a susible S.1 bilIonnin witn S-7 yearsar impounding.Ihe moded'streatment of Xaolangdiassumes stabiization will occur by the solutionyear 2000. Fromearly July to the endof September,the maximm elevatio is 254 m, whichlea 4.0 bMioni' of floodstorage. From earlyOctober unt eary Decembe,the upperlimit may be rdaxedup to 265 m, whichstiUl allows 2.4 billionin of swrag for ice-r control. After March 1, fuillstorag may be ed until early June, at which tim the reservoimut be loweredin anticipaioof the oncomingflood season. The lower limitis takento be 246m thougou, whichis 2 m abovedead storage. From October to June, a udeceasedoutput zone ap to powergeatin and, depen on to inflowregm, irrgtion andextabasin trasfers. 34. For rservoirs that egu flows on anmual bsins, such as Lujiaxa and Sanxia, the lowerlimit are typicallyonly neardead stora. Theydo not reachdead stora in orderto protectthem. Forthe miltlysa reservoir, Lmonga, thelowet lims reet drought-rtecdonpolicies caded out by the YRCC,ad ae muchhigher. Accordi to the rues, Longyanxiacan never drop below 49 percet of livestoag or about 12.1bilion mi. 35. Themodel tracks monly resvoir content,but operting rles and erg output dqend on rseok elevatio. Pointestmates of devationad storageprvd by theYRCC wereused to estimatea functon reatnito be embeddedin themodel. Figure 5 sows thedata (dashes) and fittedfunction for L 1ganxaand LujiaxIa reservoirs. The fniona formis qadratic ad the fit is extmy close. 36. Te rules imiting pr levelsrefect floodcorl concas. BetweanJune and Somber, the rsvoirs mustbe broug downto leves capableof sto sm floods,ad any is mst be dischargedimmedity. Frm the YRCCrules, it can be seen that 13ujiax maintainsdout 0.44billio of floodstoa capaci ad SA-ne, about1.65. - 241- A-i

1%m sa: RpUom uhton.EMLATION L nrs: LOYAM

LONGYANXJ

s ~ u . r

I~ ~ MAI

WIJIAXA

/l - mum

gla d Liujia mus lsop pwteonpaains Iefoodinginthemimi reah, which ppins th dipin their rle cuvesmin Febrary. Stre mustbe bept avaiale in ca the vrerfees on, an e jam ocurs, and dscares must be resicted to mnimize flooding. -242 -M 6

37. Evaporadonlo from the reservoirI ar a fuacdonof the potenW evaporadon,wtich variesby month,ad the ameaof the lake. Th volumesof lse b relatvelysmall (1.5 pecen of totalanl runofffor the th eitn resevors), so X attewmptwas made to Incorporaethem Into the model. Instead, the anal lossfor each reservoi wasestimated, and then allocaed to themonths according to the monty variationsof ETAO in the regionsurrounding the reservoir. The quntides ivolved are containedIn CAMS RESLOSS. HydropowerGenwaton 38. Hydropoweris crrendy generated at threeresrvoirs and about t rn-of-rver plants.The mberof eachmay double according to rplans. Forall plas, en ouWut is computedas E = H*Q*9.817*e (3) whereE is energyin thound gtgawatthours, H s thenet headin metern,Q st he disage in billionr3'monh, 9.817is a convesionfacr, and e is the plt effiency, typialy 0.85. 39. For run-of-riverplan, H is taken s set at thedesig head. Q is endogeously deemined by the modelas river flowpast the powerplamt node upto a limit, f any, of powerhousecapacity.For reservoirs, Q mustbe dis gd I dicages tough the powerhousesand spillage becu powhous capacityIs often exceeded. Discges producin energyare thus limitedto a paramet (MAXDTPHthat relects maximumdisCh through thepowerhouse. 40. 'Te endogenousde astion of nethead, H, is morecomplex, and gives rie to the need for nonlinearprogrami solutionteqes. H is the differ betweenpool elevaionand tallwater elevation Pool elevaton as a functonof resrvoir orgsewas descioed above. Thecoefficiens fom theseregressios appeat in GAMSTABLE ELSTOR and directly enterthe equtons determiningele stlw4l 41. Tailwar elevationIs a funion of dischg: TE = TI(D). Logily, onewould expectdTE/dD > 0 andprobably d'MdDW also >0. For somerroks, theda exhibit thesecharaccs andthe quadratic for provies a goodfiL For othes, thereatip is less clearand sometimes i l / Forthe tm being,the moddemploys a liner relationship estimatedfrom to avabe data heoefiens appearin GAM TABLETFTE. Ihe H in equation(3) thusbeomes the difeence betweentwo vaiables(one of whichI nonlinear)for the reservoirs,resultig in (3) beingnoinear.

I/ Becasme y prductonis a flowover* moanwhly timo epand t voir cont andhle devationmay vay consideablyover tho mont, thedeaionusd by oemodel is theavege of tha of dtecumret and precedn mant. JQI li dat forLl*ijl exhibita a invtd U pate, pbably du to _ errosa -243- AM 6

Sc&aro Secti_o 42. A larg nmber of scenariosmay be analyzedwith the ELM. Eachbasic sceonao diffe by (1) the ye simuated, (2) the Inflowregime assumed, and (3) th collectionof projecs whichare active. 43. Yar.ll/ Ihe ba yea, tmed wcurrent,`s nonally 1990. lb KLMwa testedfor he moureen dataavailbe Unfortunatelythee I no side recentya for wbich a complto nd cnst dataset Isavailablo. For mostagriculWal data, including idgad ae, crop yidds, and water requirements,the mostrecent dat perta to 1987. Early 1992 dat areud forcommodity prices and costs of production.System efficiency paramete, such as can andfleld efficiencies, and ren factorsare those projctd to 1990by earlr YRCC st. 44. Putou yearsmay be sdectedfom theopdons 2000, 2010, and 2020. Whenthe soun ye changed,sevea gesare made waumatcllywiti theGAMS model: (a) The efetdve, or potenia Irrigaedatea is chged accorig to te assumed ogenou dvdeopmenador rt of nces. (b) Systemeffidencies are Improved,aga accrdig to YRCCprojetons (up to 2000)ar assumedrates of chge. (c) M&ldemands and extbasu transfersare changed,rflectg secar grwth in populatn idustri dvelopmet, and plan exu*asin trasfe. (d) igted cropyields are icreasedaccorg to the epoctd Impactof planed agriulturaldelopment projects. (e) Projectsare 'swted on" accordn to theschoedul of targeedlinpi o For example,Xiaolandi I targetedfor compledonin about2001. Thereo it will othave n Impacton itherthe curemt or 2000modds, but Is sumedto be at fill opeationin 2010and 2020.

45. finlwRgme. Mmmode maybe solvedfor any of the 56 years of avaie inflowInf on (1919-20to 1974-75),or for selectedpoints an th Inflowpobabit distribut. Mostof h alysis based on t* lat pon, wh inludes probabtes of 0.2, 0.50, 0.7S, and0.90 (P25,PS0, P75, and P90 yes).

46. ProJec Selon. Alhouo the selectionof the soh yea deie the de(olt project whichwi be actv, k b ofte dable to ovr this tu to biolt th pac of pariua project. For example,one may wis to sove tho model'with and witout' QIkoureseoir to d ineIs himpacon rigaton andpower outpu withother tg held consoAL

W Widthe OAMS p _gamdo solun ye Isseleced in do SBrYS. '244 - ANN

D. VALDATIO hC current Situatin - Resul from the ELM 47. Priorto usinga modelsuch as theBLM as a toolto analyzefut costrain and optios, k b customaryto test t againstthe most rece availabledata to ensure tht perfom he functionsfor which It wasdesied, andto detectany inherntbiase. Th tesng process typicallyintertwined with calibration of keyprmetes for whichdirect emation is not posile or not avaiale, in additionto rordetton meur. Theresut of thibprocess shoud be a modd whichcan be temed wvalidaedWto a base year case. If the validationi succestal in a stascal sense, then some crede I lent to Its value as a projecdon too;. 48. Unfottunately,the data ablo for thisstudy do notpemit a rigorousvadation procedur. Themost recent data for agrcultu activityIn thebasin pertain to 1987;many of thee havenot bee revied since1980, and the latesthydrologic dat petain to 1974-75.Thu a formalvalidaon agaist a completedata set for a giv recentyea is bIm ble. Thisproblem would petain to ay typeof alysis,not just a optimizingplanning mode. Nevev less, wepresen the results from the ttg prcedureperformed for what is termedthe currentsktaton, " whichis aty 1990. Wewill draw on as manydifferent sourcesof Infrmtion aspossible to attemptto demonstrate t themodel perm asintended, doesnot bit anysignficant bias th canbe measrued,and can indeedassist In an overal analysisof thebasin's potns and ndtains. Thisdiscussion is dividedInto sera topicw: maal feasibility,agricdutua operatons, reservoir opeations, hydropovwer generttion, andhydrology. All of thefollowing results petain to thePSO Inflow case. nathematialFeasibility 49. A constraiedoptmization model is sai to be matematicallyfsible i a set of valuesfor Ib variablescan be found which safies Its constraints.Inasibility (theabsence of feibiiLt) occurs often in such models doe to s, y, for agridcul prctio whichexced the Hlmato of ource wm , or for minimumflows which cannot be metgie Inflows,reservoir sorw limaons, etc.Thus the first equieat of validaton is t the modes pas the feasibilitytesL

50. In al solutoD peaning to 1990, and all futuresoutioD udless noted otherwiss, the BLMJ!is mahe icly feasle. The modd is able to meetthe requied mnimm flow limitationsat the estuay In A monts, the maimumflow limitio in the reacharound Bekourbiefor ice-runcontrol, and al M&Idheio demands. Tis statemeatholds true for the etr range of Iniow regim. As descrbed above, the model does not Inlude any mmm rinihm for agdculturalor eneg producton. In general,it attemptsto maxmizethe benefits fm thoe acvies, doingthe bes it canwith water and other resources ava1il. Agiural Opaouns 51. emgicultural omponeft of themodel aempts to maximizevalue added by the irrigatedprducton of themajor crops (wheat, corn, cotton, and paddy) fom given"effecive surfacerigatedas andgiven conjunctive use are. lhese areasfor 1990ae shownIn Table2 underthe headings EPP-AREA" and CUI-AREA,and total 59.92 and 7.20 millIon - 245 - AN= 6 mu repectively.12l A ffixedcropping patte d fixed water riemen a Imposed. "RR-AREA" b ffcdve Irigated area cppd using surface wat olyI and Is endogenoulydetemined by the modd. Dtsvalue divded by thteeffedve area yieldsthe croppingintensity. RFD-AREA*refers to rinfed area thatcould be Iigated givenadequate war supplies.The modelonly downgrades such areas when water I4 so shortthat the minimum stresslevels camot be met. Table2: 11WGATEDAGCULTuRAL Acvim

MDUH uvr..m VA-ma =-zata uiD-"& gr-uzm UT,.-,m= TAL,-13 OamS VIW VAAM (U,4 (MO s_,) (-a O*X) (y) (bi) cm n) n)

I 04.7 0.17 0.09 0.05 0.05 0.s a71 * 1433 3.5) 1.69 0.91 0.68 0." 1n 105 4 .463 3." 0.05 1.60 0.24 0.07 0.71 0 3h $5 5.91 0.10 8.91 1.30 0.30 1.9 149 I4t 58 8.79 9.47 0.79 4.00 1.79 1.14 1.41 u0 144 SA 5-52 4.07 1-S2 0.89 3.10 1.1 0.75 1.5 205 1I e U1.74 19.75 4.50 5.41 4.11 4.70 441 "1 6 1.19 3.53 0-. 1.17 0.99 0.74 09 4323nn ?A 8." 4.s 1.94 1.7" 1.03 1."8 1.41 7U1 71 15.17 25.05 21.0 7.17 10.9) 8.43 7.87 711 54 IuL 59.92 82.U 7.20 0.65 13.U 34.99 18.7) 24.29 417 313

52. This solutionrepors th 89.2 mlion mu ar irrigatedfrom both surfac (2.32 millionmu) and conjunctivsupplies (7.20 milion mu). lhe YRCCdata report 89.11 for 1987 fortotal surface-wateriigated areas-a differenceof only0.4 percent. Tbiswould be a most encoumgingresut if it were knownthat 1987were a P50 year, but this camot be verified becausethe mostrecent hydrologic data availablepertain to 1974-75.Nevertheless, this t lendssome confidence to the componentsof the modelwhich detemi croppedfrigated) area efectve area, the cropping patern, the crop water requimen, and the disutio efficiencies. Only 0.85 millionmu wasnev forcedinto the ainfed assiflcatio;all of this is in regionSA, whichlies mosdy in the Pen Basin. Thisregion was fmnd to be sevely short of wat duringthe modeltesting procdu, whichled to addingthe Fenreservoir to the modd. Ti changealleviated t shortg by about 50 pferen Howwevr,an eamiation of the flowsto ths valleyrevealed at shortagescan be exected in mostyears. Theycan be only partily reducedby pumpingfrom the Yellowriver becau of th lHimedcapacity and high lift involved. As shownin Table 3, shortagesin regio SA occred in all monts ftom Aprl throughSeptemer. The only other regionexperencing shotage was SB, and tha in April odly. It is noteworthythat the YRCCuization study pect thatsubreginal omponents of our SA artdSB wouldexperienc the most sevee shortagesin the bain.j/ Irigated area by crop,which tols IRR-AREA'in Table2 is shownin TableREP29, along with the implied cr ing i_est. Its not easyto validat the totalor regionalbreakdown because official stadsticsdo not differenate Irrigd fromnonirrigatd area. Howver, if YRCC'scropping

ZIV Thesefigurs actuly petainto 1987,th latestyea forwhich such daa a available

,l/ ITigated ameau diyggr ed by YRCC into that sewved by surfie watewonly, that sed by -i bdwateronly, and tht sered by both (copincve use). Mm modd fous prmariy an ft firs catory, butrqr thathalf of tie conctiveo Ue demandsbe supplie by river sor Areasirigtd by wel ony ae outd th scopeof the model

J41 WaterReurces Utiato Study,1987, RCC. -246-

Table3: IbRGATIDARA CROP (Milli MUI)

Total Wheat Corn Cotton Paddy Intensity

1 0.17 0.12 0.05 1.00 2 3.33 2.33 1.00 1.00 3A 5.92 3.67 2.10 0.16 1.13 35 9.67 4.40 5.2 1.10 4 3.99 1.09 2.90 1.10 5A 6.07 1.66 4.14 0.28 1.10 SB 19.75 7.64 S.92 3.18 1.55 6 3.52 1.37 1.60 0.46 0.09 1.54 7A 4.83 1.99 1.85 0.85 0.14 1.70 73 25.05 9.99 9.68 5.3B 1.63 TOTAL 82.31 34.26 37.52 10.15 0.39 1.37 pafte areows ct, thendsefigu, inudng thei nsities,must s beorrm givaenth very cse ft of the rigted aa vaiable. 53. The rightmo columnsof Table 2 aso show gross value of productio from krigaed areas meure in economicprices, whichtotals Y 24.99 bllion and vale added Y 18.73bilion In the lat two columnsthese figues a reportedon a per imubasis. The rage of tse figur conrms with aebout he low levelsof productvityand Imes in iheuppe andmidle reachregions, and the relIvdy highprduct ad incomes In thelower reach regio. 54. Table4shows endogencius rigt cropyidds as a peret of thosebainable. NumberIm than100 Imply dth ste I occurrIg. e onlycrop stressed in tis solutonis con, andonly In region SAand 5S (Me modeldoes not givedteoption of stressig paddy or of converti to rainfed.)Table S repo totalIrigat prducton (surfa wae Iiaed areas only), which i th poduct of th idgateda andyilds, both of which ar _ g ~~detemnd.

55. Themodd dhverteda otal of 32.27billion m3 to the surfae-irrigaed areasas shownin colum OSIM-DVRVof Table 6. Tbesefigures are aggated to YRCC'sregions in colum (4)of Table18 tided WBLM-SWS3 longwith the diveion to conjuntve , BLM-CUS'.Togehr, theytotal 33.95 bilion m' [colum (2)]. YRCCrports that35.35 biion mi [colm (1)1was diverted In 1987.As wasihe case with rrgted areas,the mod resuts areun y losewith respectothe otls. However,some of the regiol diffr ae lae andpotially blesome.In YRCCregion 3, whichi an aggegalonof our regions3A and 3B, the modelca ri approxitdy s a with35 pece (5.5 bllion) lessdiveion. Bu in regionS,which I an g of ourregin SAand SB, the modelrequrs 4.3 bilion i moredWision ta YRCCreots (yetsi find tht on is stressedad 15 prcen of theetfcive area rinfed). -247- hNB6

Tab!. 4: IRRGAIu YmW ASPu1m or MAxMUM

wAT CORN COTTON PADDY

1 100 100 2 100 100 2A 100 100 100 35 100 100 4 100 100 54 100 97 100 55 100 93 100 6 100 100 100 100 76 100 100 100 100 73 100 100 100

Table 5: RIGT PRODUCTON (milin toam)

What Corn Cotton Paddy Total Grains

1 0.03 0.02 0.05 2 0.60 0.3 0.99 3k 0.73 1.09 0.13 1.95 3B 0.88 2.73 3.61 4 0.10 0.62 0.72 5A 0.37 1.44 0.02 1.82 53 1.72 2.98 0.27 4.70 6 0.41 0.52 0.03 0.05 0.98 7k 0.71 0.82 0.09 0.08 1.61 78 3.58 4.29 0.54 7.87 TOTAL 9.13 14.90 0.95 0.26 24.29

56. Becase th moddso closly rerou dothr e ar ad do cropp pan, thedi ndesmuo liHe d wi thecro p watrquIrems, ecropping pattean, or with thedistbution effcienies asmed, becau reqid divesions fr regiof r, D,, ar simply:

D, = EE A,,%WWo"e whereA Ist atd araud cropc, Wu, Isth crep watr rq!an t th rootzon Inmonh m,and c anded arthe distruton and feld effieces dcusd aboe".By fiig cpaing pawtn we havo se

A = PA where P, Is th pecenp of fcted" rited are Al. in crop c. -248- ANNE- 6

Tabb 6: COM'AMION OF MObIDELDIvumslote VrT= ACrUAL (bilUom u)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) YRCC BLK-TOT PCT DIP DLM-SWS LUg-CUe

1 0.24 0.09 -62.51 0.09 2 2.60 1.69 -46.5X 1.69 3 15.82 10.36 -34.52 10.06 0.30 4 1.58 1.61 1.42 1.60 0.01 5 4.61 8.96 94.42 8.69 0.27 6 1.66 1.35 -18.62 1.17 0.18 7 8.83 9.89 12.02 8.96 0.93 BDs.1 35.35 33.95 -1.72 32.27 1.69

57. Elsewhereb1 we hav tesed YRCCs crop water requiemen agains two ndepdent esmats ad fond lite reason to dipute them The crpping pte dat come fromth - YRCCsource, nd aldtoughIt maybe dated, is probablynot too far frm current reality 4 Posibly,then, much of the problemloIs with thodistribution efficiencies, the souce of which were proetons to 1990 from a base of 1980. In the aggregte, they appr to be corect given th comiste pictures of tot irrigated area and totad surfac wa divesions. But th for regions 1 through 3 and possibly 6 appear much too optmistc, whie tose for regions S and 7 appear too pessimitic. We tested the BLM for the sasmptons tat the current", i.e., those paining to 1980, efficiencies stDilprtain in regions 1 thogh 3, and th region 5 was able tD obtain the projected Adef ces for 2000. Ths test rele in a divrsion patten mewhat ldoserto that rpord by YRCC, but still far off for regions 3 and S. Rather thwa tamper with the efficiency pa, we retain them for the base yer solton,keeping in mind the poba bias they itoduc. Since tee pametes have been projected to 2000 by YRCC, and the projections am conistent with the dipaies obseved in the 1990 set,the poUem will at least be pially resolved in the ftur scenarios. he fiAnl resolution of th problem must await additionl emprc work.

58. Table 7 repo the dehredw or target divesons as computed from the mode's data base. e are the diversions required tomeet the give cropping pae given the crop wter r hemen and the dirdon efficiences. Table 8 reporu the shortl in diesions which led to the crop ste In regio SA and SB, and the downgrang of efectve Irrigated armtoa iODd in SA.

S9. A fial m cy check is made posible by the availblty of a set of projecdons made In the ization study. Table 9 reports te projections for 1990 under a PSO inflow scno compard with KM rsults for e sam yer and same sceaio. The definitions differ

JV Annex3.

Jgi Althughcrcuedara ad pdnhstatiisaaaniablfrom odtesouctu&se inaiay stated d ied mifd. Thus it is imposio to verifyir ed crpngptt,ort , iritdyidedproducio -249- AN- 6

Tabb 7: DIsmEDIEDIONS INs BiLLINum

n,0101im JUL i? ocr OT I VASIU m JUN TOTAL

1 0.022 0.035 0.069 0.007 0.033 0.043 0,03 2 0.308 0.035 0.033 0.328 0.314 0.110 0.423 0.949 1.90 3A 0.560 0.238 0.149 0.502 0.612 0.280 1.004 1.161 4.50 33 1.465 0.821 0.4S3 1.050 1.050 0.909 1.428 7.176 4 0.266 0.255 0.203 0.109 0.392 0.130 0.250 1.60 5* 0.473 0.508 0.185 0.148 0.006 0.241 0.319 0.105 0.213 2.278 5B 1.012 1.038 0.567 0.535 0.191 0.539 1.096 0.692 0.62S 6.C5 6 0.177 0.204 0,086 0.050 0.034 0.134 0.185 0.153 0.218 1.241 7A 0.280 0.113 0.115 0.115 0.286 0.286 0.033 0.435 1.663 7B 0.759 0.620 0.461 0.517 1.015 1.015 1.015 1.272 64674 TOTAL 5.322 3.832 1.676 2.541 3.394 0.197 2.324 3.690 4.577 5.994 33.47

Tble 8: SoTALL iNDIVESON (n bilion in)

REGION JUL AUG SEP VAR APR MAY JU TOTAL

SA 0.120 0.080 0.031 0.016 0.045 0.008 0.035 0.335 53 0.372 0.372 TOTAL 0.120 0.080 0.031 0.016 0.417 0.008 0.035 0.707 fr thoseused above, so the numberswill vry somnewaL'Divers.' rer to toalo diverdons(wbich are less than or equalto duhWdivesions) fom themanstem and riutas inluding dth for M&L 'Consump.' is a diverio which do not ranter the systemas ratur Ao. 'Loses' a t dffeence, or tha compoent of divions whichdoes retur Rosuts fiom the LMare comparablebecao the modelcontalns variaes for diversionsto both Iriation and M&I oadendogenouly omputesrtun flowsfiom each.

60. hs compason showsa muchcloser reationsip Da reportedabove for the 1987dataexcep for region7 whichin the YRCCwrk incudedonly the aas pred by the maindike and not th restof Henanand Shandog,which s Iigat by YellowRiver water. Indeed,the modelalmost precisy matchesYRCC's attainable divesions for regions1-6, our 'consumptonb wihn 1 percet, andoar loes' arewihin S pce i closenesis not entidelybeca the EM andthe YRCC andysispresumaby us many of the - data YRCCddento of Idgaed area difred coniderablyfrom the lat estiae used by the EIM, and eventhe tots of P0 inflowused diff by about2 bIlion in. 61. Th mostIeestiungspe oftdsomparso thdthe esindivesins foundbetween DheELM and the 1987dat greadydiminih in this compaisn Recallthat dte 1987dta showed15.82 bilion diversionsto regions, againstthe ELM's 10.3. kheYRCC projectonI 11.9, muchcoser to the BLMs. In region3, the actualdea showed4.6 diesion but themodel required about twice that, or 9 bilion Wn.The YRCC project for 1990is abou 8.0, agai much los to theBLM than to thereported data Ununay, all -250 -

TObbe9: o nos NMO1CC UI1uATIoN STun CaMAR DwL SM0ON, 1990 PSO

------DIM ------Region Divers. Consump. Loos.. Divors. CoDsump. Looses

Basin total 28.29 22.60 5.70 35.47 29.65 5.82

1-6 total 25.88 20.65 5.23 25.90 20.45 5.45 percentage differance 0.1S -0.91 4.22

In Different region 7 definitions are used by the two studies. we ae able to cocldo Is tht, whate Is caing tis regionaldisrpa, it Is prese in both the YRCC anysis and our own. lurf Op_rd.

62. Table 10 epor on the opeions of the three main rerois as simatW by te ELK Mh firstcoluon, -RUNOF is th inflowto ta mevoir onlyfrom rnoff. TOT- LOW is moffplus flows om thepreum s node. T0 IN+1is releasesto th next nalftuinode, whic ae net of dt_o bDboth agrilt and M&L TotD divrn -ae obbreviadas DVERS Inthe tbl. STRED' isthe end-of-month reseroi conets, and CH4TI is th chan frm the preious month 63. LI dishefirs rs ir on mainstem ndthe fis Iow node. Hencetheol nfnlowto It is t rnoff to k, wich amountsto 35.7pcent Oftoal sytem rnoff for hePSO ca Only0.179 bilion n of dision au dese fromLongana, al of whih cameay be mot lb dierc bwe totalIflows 20.09bilion in) andtota relas (19.685bMiion ) Isdue to the diversions plus 0.276 billion ie of evao n loe. By compardinte betweebthe maximu sora In Octoberus the minum In May. It cmabesee d Longyanua i usn about5.4 bilon ' of ks 19+ bMionDtof lve storage. Tis lowu fiu i dueto two treo . Fis, thePO Inflowca doesnt stes th system signfilcanty.In fact,6thr isbample- wateto mneeaWI demands. Where shortages wer detected,day re tracd to Infow dots In the Fen and Wei basins which coud not befolly _augetedbypumped diversios frm theYllow Riverbecaue of capacitycontrains. Second, fte ta nnua changeIn soag i zero for a reserirs. This s requW by the steadystate embedded In th stuctur of the BL, which require tht trminal (year-end)condion be th ameas hd (year-start)condiions. Thus the moDa y ned -251- A6NNE

the 5.4 bMllionem of stoe in Lngania to do what I requid of It in a median year. As wil be discused late, thasum of zero amnn storag for Longyania may not be valid for dry yas in pardular, when roservoirminin I lkdyto ocr.

Table 10: IREaSVOM OPERATIONS

R"NOF ToT-INFLO TO-N.l DIVERS STORED CI-$TOR JUL 3.690 3.690 2.32P 0.017 18.810 1.304 AVG 3.320 3.320 2.129 0.006 1.149 8SP 2.170 2.170 1.299 0.006 20.796 0.837 OCT 2.200 2.200 1.017 0.024 21.936 1.140 NOV 1.140 1.140 2.481 0.041 20.546 -1.390 DEC 0.610 0.610 0.477 0.006 20.671 0.125 JAN 0.480 0.480 0.477 0.006 20.665 -0.006 FEB 0.380 0.380 0.801 0.006 20.228 -0.437 VAR 0.560 0.560 0.769 0.006 19.993 -0.234 APo 0.900 0.900 3.036 0.010 17.817 -2.176 HAY 1.790 1.790 2.976 0.023 16.570 -1.247 JUN 2.850 2.850 1.843 0.028 17.506 0.936 TOTAL 20.090 20.090 19.635 0.179 0.000 LIUJIhXIA OFPF FROM-N-1 TOT-INFLOTO-N+1 STORED CE-STOR JU-L 0.860 2.328 3.188 3.168 2.917 AUG 1.030 2.129 3.159 3.141 2.917 SEP 0.610 1.299 1.909 0.869 3.943 1.026 OCT 0.800 1.017 1.817 1.808 3.943 NOV 0.470 2.481 2.951 3.06S 3.822 -0.121 DEC 0.280 0.477 0.757 0.633 3.943 0.121 JAN 0.160 0.477 0.637 1.309 3.268 -0.675 mEB 0.160 0.801 0.961 0.641 3.583 0.315 VAR 0.250 0.769 1.019 0.650 3.943 0.360 APR 0.330 3.036 3.366 3.352 3.943 MAY 0.590 2.976 3.566 3.548 3.943 JUN 0.700 1.843 2.543 3.548 2.917 -1.026 TOTAL 6.240 19.635 25.875 25.733 0.000

RUNoPF FROM-N-1 TOT-INFLO TO-N+1 DIVERS STORED CI-STOR JUL -0.100 2.291 2.191 1.971 0.199 0.014 AUG 0.070 5.226 5.296 5.048 0.222 0.014 SEP 0.190 2.354 2.544 0.696 0.122 1.750 1.736 OCT 0.020 2.688 2.708 2.628 0.091 1.750 NOV 0.010 2.175 2.185 2.554 0.078 1.322 -C :49 DEC 0.020 1.351 1.371 2.628 0.049 0.042 -1.' JAN 0.040 1.707 1.747 1.720 0.049 0.042 FZB 0.060 1.062 1.122 1.091 0.049 0.042 MAR -0.040 1.960 1.920 1.166 0.162 0.622 0.580 APR 0.050 2.895 2.945 1.597 0.205 1.750 1.128 MAY 0.000 1.952 1.952 2.020 0.178 1.490 -0.260 JUN 0.060 1.363 1.423 2.628 0.234 0.014 -1.476 TOTAL 0.380 27.023 27.403 25.748 1.639 0.000 -2526

64. os (75.9pecen) of LhUJlaxsInflows are rdees fom Longyanxia,and tihe remainigiflow Is uoff. Thereare no divrsionsfom Laxia directly,so the difference betweenIts annualrele andInflows Is dueto evapion losses. Slightlyover 1 billionmin of Its sta is required.In contrast,virtually all of Sanmenxia'sinflows are firom upstream releas and ruoff. Dersloas to on 6 amountto 1.64blllonm'. Vtuy all of is limitedstoage capacityIs deoted to lae summr floodcontrol and winterice-jam control.

65. Figur 6 show the monty opeion of each of these reoirs ad the correspondigoperting limts. It canbe seen Ihatthe PSO scario doesnot result In sigficant swingsin sta, exceptfor Sanmeia. Lestone conlude that these reservoirs, let aone the proposedre irs,a unneesary, we stedthe M withoutthese reservoirs. Even in the PSOcase, bl sbortagesin irrigationwater showed up in all regions2 throughSB, energy ouWutwas redced by 60pecent, andit wasImpossible to meetthe ice-nmflow coaints. Hydropow Opertions 66. As shownin Table11, energy output (ENERGY) from each reservoir depends on thenet head MEAD),and the discage trough thepowerhouses M EP).ACONT stands for averagecontent, which ls the averageof the curent monts end-of-monthsorage andthe prvous months. ELEVIs the pool devation pondinto ACONTand when the tail waw elevationis sutacted, yieldsHEAD. Allof thesefactors, includig tanl water elevation, are ndogenouto theBEL DTPHis a boundedvariable, the bound determined by the capacity ofthe turbines.Of thesevariales, partal imation i avilablefor validation: Desig Head Maxhead La AverageEnery Longyanila 122 150 5,980 Llujidaxa 110 122 5,580 Sanmena 30 ? 1,310

Is ChinaWater Resources and ElectricPower Press, 1arge Dams In Chwa: Hsory Ad dewm, Prmr, Bdjing,1987, p. 164. h Chn Waer Resou and Electic PowerPrss, ElectrcPow Ind&y I Oina, Beijing,1988.

Fist, HED sod tur out to be in th neigborood of designhead. Designhead for Longynxbas 122 m. Lonyxiawappearsto cobtendy exceedthe design head, but mver the maxmumhead of 150m. Liujiaxiaand Sanmeia bothopeae witn faiy narrowranges aboutther designheads of 100m and30 m, resetively. Energyoutput from L 1ngyain thePSO solution i wtin 1 pecen of thatreported a avwe. ForLiujbxia, the model obtains about5 pec more,and for Sanmemx,about 8 pecent less.jl We concludetht te hyopower compon of tie modelperfom sailctoriy.

Xl Thedt"gh Saumai's pdurig td floodmonths have been aitily rugltdto 50pesocatof totl zelebecaus, wie sdmntsoncntaionigh, theturbies mst b sbutd o minimoizdaMa e mayeplain whyour smaed eegy outt lss tan thatrepm%t& 4wX" w wGP WE AP *--! !M X

VI OR -s

s-us~~~~~~~s . .l WU

oixodnn

ow3 osd 0661 SIIopIJdOsOhuj 9 1fu

§xRRYVZ -254-

1Tb 11: OW OPEAONS

anAM gm ~~PM sumo (a) (bea) (a) (bae'/oth) (GWM*10A3) JUL 131.54 18.14 2,590.29 550.67 434.87 AUG 133.84 19.59 2,594.46 946.83 760.81 8EP 136.66 20.14 2t595.94 685.58 562.50 OCT 140.58 20.99 2,598.1S 301.19 254.20 NOV 137.76 21.01 2,598.18 935.47 773.68 DEC 139.64 20.40 2,596.64 178.92 150.00 JAN 139.79 20.46 2,596.79 178.72 1S0.00 PEN 137.92 20.12 29595.89 428.56 354.85 mAR 137.17 19.67 2,594.67 287.23 236.54 APR 129.64 18.45 2,591.20 1,184.06 921.60 NAY 124.45 16.72 2,585.85 1,111.11 830.19 JUN 126.03 16.58 2,585.38 701.80 53:.01 TOTAL 5,960.25 LIUJIAZZA Ea ACONT gLE DTPN ENRGY JUL 95.68 2.92 1,726.99 864.29 496.46 AUG 94.12 2.92 19726.99 1t324.67 748.52 SEP 101.34 3.43 1,731.43 519.69 316.18 OCT 104.59 3.94 1,735.00 596.52 374.57 13V 102.42 3.88 1,734.62 1,161.78 714.39 DEC 105.43 3.88 1,734.62 236.19 149.50 JAN 101.53 3,49 1,731.87 577.33 351.91 135 101.25 3.31 1,730.4S 264*85 161.00 WAR 104.64 3.76 1,733.8S 242.58 152.39 APR 102.33 3.94 19735.00 1,305.98 802.34 H&T 102.12 3.94 1*735.00 1,324.67 812.19 JUN 98.58 3.43 19731.43 1,359.58 804.69 TOTAL 5,884.15 SANIENIA DE ACONT am DTP! ENERGY JUL 12.53 0.01 305.85 490.59 36.90 AUG 12.53 0.01 305.85 490.59 36.90 so3 25.99 0.88 319.29 487.11 76.02 OCT 31.18 1.75 325.29 981.18 183.65 NOV 30.79 1.62 324*84 973.63 180.00 DEC 23.75 0.76 317.86 981.18 139.91 JAN 12*69 0.04 306*40 730.80 55.69 135 13*22 0.04 306.40 446.15 35.41 VAR 17.19 0.26 310.48 471.35 48.64 APR 28.18 1.12 321.65 S99.66 101.47 MAY 30.19 1.49 324.2 949.50 172.07 Jug 21.87 0.62 315.98 1,013.89 133.12 TOThL 1,199.79 - 2SS - ~~~~ANNIR6

E.BASIWDEWATrn BALANCE

67. Table 12 sthe badinwdowar balanc for the 1990PSO cae. Of the 56.35 biion n of anual rff, 0.86 lost throughr wi epaon, 3.19 billionm are dired for M&Idemans, and 32.27biflion in go to agclt. A total of 6.31 bllion nil ren fromthese la two cato, resulg in nt diveasio of 29.16billon mW.Flows to th sea moun to 25.47biion il. lheob vey lkttleinoaon avaiableto vaidate the reuls, partlcularlysince tey peai to a fietous media year. However, we have already th d iversionsto agIcltr a extemey los to th YRCCreot for 1987.Olher fi_Vutwy dat *om YRCC suffet duatthey beliee not diverons tota 27.5 bllon i for a rece yea-1.66 bMionin mmre the modelshows. If tilsb a discrepancy at all, it could be rectd by calag thoe n fctors, an e a we have not med given the lack of suitabl YRCC also epect (or hopes for) about 20-24 billon n' dischags to the soa for sedimt fung and proction. Under thi scOnario,th mode fids 24.2 billo Wn,at the highend of tie expectedrange.

Tabbl12: IBlswms WAR IALANCI

RUNOff LOSSESTO-M+I TO-AG RETURNS XNTDIV TO-SEA TOT-WGY

JUL 8.46 0.12 0.27 5.08 0.94 4.40 2.25 1,403.32 AUG 10.51 0.11 0.27 3.79 0.85 3.20 6.11 1,717.03 SEP 6.76 0.08 0.27 1.62 0.67 1.22 1.91 896.82 OCT 6.28 0.06 0.27 2.31 0.43 2.15 2.40 861.36 NOV 3.66 0.04 30.27 3.20 0.50 2.97 2.20 1,729.79 DEC 1.5S 0.02 0.27 0.64 -0.37 2.71 481.12 JAN 1.49 0.02 0.27 0.17 0.09 1.97 605.65 FE 1.44 0.03 0.27 0.21 0.17 0.31 1.05 560.11 MAR 3.22 0.06 0.27 2.47 0.20 2.53 0.08 488.36 APR 2.83 0.08 0.27 3.44 0.38 3.34 0.29 1,974.31 M"A 4.30 0.11 0.27 4.40 0.55 4.12 1.60 1,913.94 JUN 5.85 0.13 0.27 5.74 0.81 5.20 1.64 1,516.44 TOT 56.35 0.86 3.19 32.27 6.31 29.16 24.20 14,148.24

HydnwagfI at Sed Node

68. PFay, te mols oupu ildes flow dat pas ech node,whch canbe used to conruc a mooily hydoraph for ds nodes of iesL Table 13 reports thes data for th maingaig staio. hesenubs are of diversonmsfom te givenwde, I ay. Beco arOe no dhveioms(h h mode)below Lini, th hydrographat Ujinbs Ide to did at th Mouth -256-2M56 6

Tabb 13:HYln}ROAPs AT SEUICJEDNOw8

LAMNOU EKOZEEN L0NGHBN SAIIUNIK HUAYUKOU LIJIN 2.25 JUL 3.68 1.S1 2.05 1.97 2.96 6.11 AUG 4.58 4.08 4.74 5.40 6.50 SEP 1.81 1.49 2.00 1.03 1.78 1.91 OCT 1.93 0.84 1.49 2.63 3.15 2.40 NOV 2.91 1.87 2.07 2e54 3,00 2,20 DEC 0.76 0.76 0.95 2.66 2.81 2.71 1.97 JAN 1.55 1.35 1.57 1.84 2.06 FEB 0.72 0.68 0.86 1.08 1.11 1.05 WAR 0.82 0.93 1.58 1.31 1.54 0.08 APR 3.51 3.24 2.95 1.47 1.72 0.29 MAY 3.64 1.71 2.20 2.46 2.82 1.60 JUN 4*01 1.47 1.31 2.63 3.27 1.64 24.20 ARNUAL 29.92 19.94 23.78 27.02 32.72

1990 - Alternave Inlow Scenaios

69. All of he above rubs peained to the P50 or medianinflow scearIo. lb.m LM was also tested wi a rangeof inflow scenarios,from P25 to P98. lbe resul are summarized In Table 14.

Table 14: M 1990 UN ALIINTm loww SCEUOS

P25 PS0 P75 P90 P98 Hydrologys Total-Runoff 69.59 56.35 48.94 39.71 28.72 To Sea 37.76 24.2 17.47 9.88 3.44 Diversionss To Aariculture 31.29 32.27 31.82 30.23 25.06 To N&I 3.19 3.19 3.19 3.19 3.19 Net Diversions 28.32 29.16 28.78 27.42 23.12 Agriculture: Irrigated Area 82.42 82.32 81.71 80.63 65.77 Rainfed Area 0.73 0.83 1.43 3.11 17.36 Cropping IntenJ. Grain Output 23.79 24.29 23.92 22.91 18.53 GrossOutput 24.85 24.29 24.89 24.42 23.02 valueAdded 18.58 18.73 18.66 18.30 17.73 Energys Total 18.20 14.15 11.75 10.08 6.57 13,828 9,894 7,572 5,949 Bass Load 4,131 Peaklng 4,376 4,254 4,179 Value 3.694 3.016 2.640 2.380

70. Except for iegy ou tand flows to thesa there is e differe btweethe PSOCarqsSS P25 (wet). PM (median) andP75 (dry) y solutions. In some respects, the .2S - A25E- an 1mpwvemt ovr te P2S ca, eve tough P25 contas about13 billion n more anual rnoff. 1i is bcau the P2S y ae typicallyhigh flood yers whichresult in the high amual t . But In somemonths citca to ag cutr, the PSOflows are actly hger tham th P25. ThusPSO obta slighty highergrain output ad slightlybigher value added, although the di c are negligible. P75 showsa margil incr in raied area and magia decrees in all the indexesof agrcult perfomance,but aga, not signficant. i result maywell be beae the YRCChas pland deelopmentfor the P75case; I.a., theyepect that water wil be aviable for projec undetaken in at least 3 out 4 years.

71. Largedifferenm in bothenergy output and flows to the sea do appearbetween the P25, PSO,and P75, and in predictabledirections. Enery outputis of coursehighly depanden on flows, andto outputdop from 18.22tusand gigaa hoursin the P25to 11.75In the P75 case. Sincenet divesionsdo not varymuch at all, the remainderflows to the sea. This varlable snealy 38 bllion m in the P25 case, about24 billionm' inthe PSOcase, and about 17.5in the P25 case. The implicationof thesenumbers i that, for the urrentsiuion, we can expectthe 20-24billion m& flows to the sea desiredfor sedimentflushing, on average. 72. In the P90 cse, or in 1 year out of 10, significantshortages begin to appear. Rafed area is about4 timestbat of the PSOcase, diversionsto agricul are 2 billionmP belowthe P50 case, and grainoutput is about6 percentless. The lagest impactis on energy output, which Is only 71 psecen of the PSOcase and SSpecent of the P25 case. Naually, flows to the sea drop fiher, to below 10 blllionn . 73. TheP98 case represn the driestyear on record(193 ). thbisshould occur again under he existg levelof development,the BLMfinds th severeshortfalls in agricutureand energywould occur, and that flows at the esty wouldvirully cease exceptfor the late summermonts.

AgricutureEer Tradoffs

74. EneWrproductio seemsto be far down YRCC'slist of concers for the basin, rankingwel belowflood and sedim contrl, ad irrigation. In part this is due to the division of *ntttonareponsibilities, and in part due to the reatvey low contibuton of ener to totl economicretun to YellowRiver watr. Basedon calculons from the PSOsolution describd above,Irrigation acouns for 84 percen of economicvalue, energy, 13 percent,and M&I 3 percent ll To test the responsivenessof the model to changes in energy prices and to estmatethe tadeoffs involved,we solvedthe modelfor energyprics 50 percenthigher and 50 percentlower and inflowprobabilkies of P25 throughP90. In cases, value addedin agdculturewasfeed by the price of energy. his resultoccur bcause whereshortages appearin the 1990cases, they are the result of shrtag in subbasininflows, and cannt be reducedthrough chages In mainstem operatins. Energyoutput does showsome very smal respon to energyprice, but onlyIn the P75 andP90 cases. Chaes in nergyoutput are less tha 1 percentover the entirerange of pricesconidered. Apparenty,YRCC h entrelyjustiied in viewingenergy proction as a residul actity In the curr situo Ti viewwill most

IV Dan an mey valuwof 36 fuw/kwfor peakig powr, 15 fnA forbasn load power, and 25 feni/Bfor MT m MATues pay bewn 12 and28 fnliu?in dheBasin dependig a booimand nise .258 - ANNE 6 likely require a close look in A&usenoshen wat supplies become shot and vat investnet in new capait he been Installed.

Conduding Rarks on Vaidaton 75. Bothconstruction and validadon of theBLM has been hampred by a lackof dat withwhih to supplementand tet thebic dmaprovied by YRCC'sutiizato study. In a sese, we have employedthe modd as a speadst to tet the consitny of the entire fwieork, andtb compaeselected res with th scot infma aviable dsewher. Exceptfor the region dicpandes b e diversionsto arculture andtho repod by YRCC,no structuraldeicencies have been detected, ad no overallbias ppa to be pres Whilewe camotplace any stistical sigificae on the rs of the modd becas of our inabilityto performrgrou valdationtests, we bdie da theresu ppe quit reasonable gvenexpectations, and ta the moeddis suble anaIdicative pling tl. - 2ss -

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* COMPUTE01335103 NOM 0JURCTII8 US IMA. eo5p3 501S SUPLIRD T 8U O lWaV ID KASURDA M. PARAMITUOUHRNQ(2*V) CONJUNOUU USE AMA SW1 CnM8) ARVL COML IISIARITA SW REpULNO CUSWZQ(R,N)- 5(G, (CUA(R)*CRAt(R,C) /100*ZQ(t*C,M) ) )IZI AitR",CW") /2000; COU3Q(R) * Mlot, C3ZQ,10)) DIlPAY CUURQ, CMQ

* ACOULIAL DA * VOLLOIIIO1Timm Dfur=D mRO 1957 1300 UnTLlZWIO STUOT * I3RIOAZ ARX1.5 TIMESAVERAGE RAlNEtD, *.7 TAUB WSIR(R,IR,C) MUGATIMM 11 NO PM Mw * TIMD8, 7110 low? can COTMIO PADDY I .11"0 158 220 2 .1990 225 sit 3A*1990 163 228 548 53.1990 146 204 4 .1990 151 220 *.o1O 173 390 53 53.1990 172 288 51 6 .1990 209 351 41 242 7A*1990 242 501 73 300 7.2190 242 501 a5 385 1 *2000 259 S8 a .2000 259 38" 3A .2000 220 516 524 53 .2000 216 518 4 .2000 145 215 54 .2000 225 359 86 53 .2000 232 568 91 6 .200 298 U25 65 508 7A *2000 400 484 100 590 73.2000 411 510 112 560 * TLIRl(R,"19904,C) a YLD8SIR(R.3190U,C)*(1.015**3); ILDSIR(t,*2000',C) a MSIR(Itt,"1990 3,C)*(1.402"10); ?LDSIR(R,'20100,C) a TMDSlR(R,"2000m,C)*(l.01**10)g

PARMI TILM(RoMC) 11= R SOL$U 13 S DSIRR(R,C) a SM(IRMYS!)O, 1TM8R(RO,R,C))g DISPLAYT13sM=

* AICULTURAL OIISAND COS

* DERVE IR 30g= ICE mnC inDgIm CALODU¢I¢NS TALUBAARICB(R,U,C) DOERM11CR DMr 101 MAJORCROP OUTPUT (Tur per tos) A CoR COT00 PA0DD *MS VERSIONlM B C|ONAS XWPORTID (1,2). 1990 1589 969 5A. 1990 1349 929 05 53. 1990 1289 869 4. 1990 1598 957 5S. 1990 1259 798 9668 S. 1990 1294 653 9725 (6,7A). 1990 1244 803 9675 986 73. 1990 1244 608 9673 AO1CME(R,"2000',C) AGPICBt(R,"19906,C) AG3(1,XCOR20101,C) AAPRtMc(20006,C)l PARtM MCE(R,C) IOR SOLUTO TE; PIIO(R,C) - SWU1a$TS(IR), AOICB(R,IR.i))g -266-w

GM@ - UUNU 205000lIARU-

Table Ap.et(t, fv,we,.) £pt.uluu4 Ip to by stt.. lo*tl (loon per no) Cot.Caotton padd (1,2,38) .(1"90,300O)*.3f 1 32 (23,3) .(190,2000)w4 SO 4 .(a1990,a000) 64a 23 SA .(19O,2000).LW 64 37 (SA,S) .1990,20).0e 81 53 9 M6,7U) . (19O,2000).No 81 53 99 108 ( 5A,53B6,7).90,20).W 64 37 6 73 .1990 *110" 118 73 117 73 .1990 .W 9 64 99 73 .2000 .Uw. 131 t s11 73 .8000 .*L.0 103 a 112; M00XT(1,92000',W,C) a A0, (1990',W,0) apooST(3,"a2106,W,#) a A00sT(O3,'000l,WN,0)j

PAIU 00819(,0) WM SOLnOR WILS 00518(1,0) "at83(8*1(1 , *) RAnit,PM ,,C)) * pa -W1_~~ -I IV32

3(3,0) 35 HARIN MM I 8(10) a n I(1$,0)* UCK(11,90)looog 3(1,) * 8(1,0) * C0068(3,0); DISPLAYU, Mg

IPRAE TLM, 1C)i ,lWSf(,0TIMS1130in 1L3313(RIQ) * ILDSSI1,)12g g

TXX116113 I I83sman TAL!80(0,1,3) 52535ISI MU VAR APM VAT JUN JUL l.2 1 1 1 AT.A .5 I I . MlAT.33 . lU.4 1 1 1 1 ANT.SA 1 1 1 MlUZ.S I I 1 WIA.*7A 1 1 1 1m3A1.75 1 1 1 0053.2 1 1 005.28 1 1 0053.331 1 1 1 0053.530013.5 1

005.7A 1 .5 001.73 1 000.5 1 I ON 888(,C) IB 1 BUS APRXIV *A ONA0 0 583(3,0) IN 163 DOMUT APR? 10 A 0215 0MP1 eUIO(3,0,N) II) $uPs 1111 xIx MM n 6(1,0 a 310$ 08M00 ,0, a WI 6833,0C) a we 668,0OG) a UBMUCW(M,(0,l,W)) o6 0)I D8SPLAY88I 683(1,*0) a lISU SMON001,30) 3q 0)I DISMA On3 830(1,0, *aSUN(0,1,N 6O 0) DIPAa 85s ; P15A 153(3,0) I= VA= 3Q 33R30 8155188 (1,0)* a MU,Mu5A,0,W*UISa,1,N - 267 -

GM3 MO LISTIN-~~~~~~~~~D I= 2000 WIAR - ~ A

+ £W(M*u(R,c,K), U'3AU(,M)'CaLUDI,C,IO) DISPLY ii

PA3ANIT 11(3) w&xn8 £11. LIv. 1M(1) a .S KTM(OSA) a .61 PAAMKU U(C) FAD Vg 1*1 /VW .6, cOII .5, COTO . I ;

* IIU Dag&=

TAUS HDUM(R#,U,) KO1UY HU MU ST3 o1 ST TM an *Tota N ad Rural U1usebold CaOeurnt1as of Sface Vater (boo) * 1990 =hMS deOtled trocm I0C, 1991, Current Sltuatls refectinS 1987 cosdt1eD * 2000 prejectcas derived fra IBCC, 1987 TOMS neat of 1.58 boa Shanni tranfer * £gsg ted to rstqone by wepgbtSn* by water use per Y £ndustral value, * and ral and urba populatUa * djusted to enJus eoeaalteney between 1987 data *n 1andM projectUo Jul A83 Sep Oct Nov Doe Jan Fab Mar Apr May Jun 2.1990 .032 .052 .032 .032 .032 .032 .032 .032 .032 .032 .032 .032 5A.1990 .009 *009 *009 .009 .009 *009 .009 .009 .009 .009 .009 .009 5I.19M0 *012 .012 .012 .012 .012 .012 .012 .012 .012 .012 .012 *012 4.1990 .054 .O34 .054 .034 .034 .054 .034 .034 .034 .034 .034 .054 5A.1990 .017 .017 .017 .017 .017 .017 .017 .017 .017 .017 .017 .017 5. 1990 .025 .025 .025 .025 .025 .025 .025 .025 .025 .025 .025 .025 6.1990 .016 .016 .016 .016 .016 .016 .016 .016 .016 .016 .016 .016 7A.1990 .014 .014 .014 .014 .014 .014 .014 .014 *014 *014 *014 .014 73.1990 .009 .009 .009 .009 '009 .009 .009 .009 .009 *009 .009 *009 2.2000 .055 0SS *035 .055 *035 055 .055 *035 .035 *035 .035 *035 Sa.2000 .015 .015 *015 .015 *015 .015 .015 *015 .015 .013 *015 *013 3b*2000 *019 .019 .019 .019 *019 .019 .019 .019 o019 .019 *019 .019 4.2000 o039 *059 .039 *039 .039 .039 .039 .039 .039 .039 .039 .039 Sa.2000 .05 A0SS .035 .035 .055 *035 .035 .035 .035 .035 .055 .035 Jb#2000 .053 .05 .0553*055 .053 .055 .0553 053 .553 .053 *053 .052 6.2000 .034 .034 .034 *054 *034 *034 .034 *034 034 .034 034 .034 7a*2000 .016 *01, *016 *016 *016 .016 .016 .016 .016 .016 .016 *016 7b.2000 .O1S .013 .015 .013 *015 .013 .013 .013 .013 .013 .013 .013l N163(1, 200100,Na 313(1,*2000.X)*1.01l*10 NIM (O",p"1990,K) a *.002o ID(61,2000,) a.005; NID1(N1N*820108,U)a .005331 NMI (610,20200,K)a .0036; SIT NMIDIMW, KNMAII TAIL mimA(l,N1D,UM) * II is UIICIUOY 01 mli DOIkIRONS, DIV=DE CoOISIUTiO BY IT * IAC I IOPOITIOF DIV-0O0 I? IN I onE 10111mLAI HWY*.1990HIWiAC.1990 KIM.2000 KZIIAC.2000 (1,2)Oe20 0.5 0.467 0.5 * 0.409 0.6 0.609 0.6 35 0.613 0.7 0.613 0.7 4 0.670 0.5 0.890 O05 5 0.449 0.5 0.449 0.5 55 0.445 0.6 0.569 0.6 6 0.327 0.7 0.327 0*7 7£ 0.916 0.1 0.916 0.1 75 0.923 0.1 0.925 0.1; IUA(11,MD,1120103) a NDtR,(1,HD2000O');

PAU= = Wan1,93) 11 SLUTION MR UID (,ND) MR SOLUON AR; HIMMlM(Rg,m * SUM( Y , ImaID,T,I1)) MiTA(,hIID) a 8W3(1*(U), KIM(l,NID,1R))g DSM 1IM; -268-

paramt. .t1(t) aotal() a fl.(, uU.ad({,,u)'(-ldt(vlt Sa.'gc))); Optima s.t1A2l disply aetat; PARAK= nos(,vl) LOSSS1 A5O8 RIVER RECUS I UMAYKOMMlUANO.01 .DIASONOIN.015 DOON.UJnx .015 1 ;

* S3OU R AND 1YaRO1_OVDM IPAMT lIT() PA DIVBlOTI DATES0F RSUVOMI/ LONOTAU 1990 LOUJAXI 1990 8UWSI 2020 Qu 2020 Lt1 2020 in3 1990 SA8 1990 YULANG 2010/1

RIT(N)$(MrI(W3LT 1990) a 3000; PARAtM MY() PLAnED EFCTM U233 OF PO11 lPLSI LAXIVA 2020 LUKIA T 2000 003301 2020 tA3GMQ 1990 WARJAI= 1990 MAIi 2000 QINOTMoI 1990 :YU mo A SIAJAX 2020 TIASQSIO 1990/ ; MO(M)$MPIT(N) LT 1990) 330001 SW 35(3,1R) RESERVOIRS IN CPRRENT 083C*UROt aS,(NTR)a 30; 3C0(X,VR)a XS8$(&o(w) EQ 1990); RCs(,Us2000N)nlS4(Rmff()LB 2000); OC8(,"2010")YE8$(RfT(N) LB 2010); RCS(X,w2020")sTRS$(RUT(N) LX 2020); DISMPA us;

SM PCS(3,1R) NOoBMPLAN?S IN CURRU 5C8S 30; PC80(,11R). B0 SC(S,UR)o TI*(PM(3) BQ 1990); 1CS(,R*2ooo)wTR*S(m(o) LX 2000); 1CS(N,32010')4X5$(MT(3) LX 2010); PCSW(,*2020*)uTRS$(M(3) LX 2020); DISPLAY 108 TANS RZSDU(SI*) RESERVOIRLIVE STIORhoCAPACITV AT OMaSSI0UVIN (SWl) CAP8S STORPASAT KAX ORNALMOOL LVM *AVGAGET IS AVERAGE ANNUAL nER II13 000'8 GIGWVATNOURS la RCAm fAhT?5 low AVPGANUOT LONGYAnE 1990 22.236 1192 1280 6000 LOOJAZIA 1990 3.943 1350 1160 3980 DALIURSO 2010 5.500 DaF 1920 8070 l 190so 0500 QSKou 2010 2.700 rer 1500 5150 LsinmE 2020 4.360 IN 2100 7950 SAMISA 1990 1.750 1000 250 1300 XIALANOD 2010 5.100 1560 1944 5870;

* COMPuh CwIL "asz LOAD 3I3I! OUTrPeT - 269 - GMS PROMRU LI8TMM Q 200018^ m imomanmM zmusnuo mno RUN mmlX it

PARAKITERPLOAD(N)I PLOWN(RlES) * RNSDATA(NltES,wIuOAP")*24*365112110001

TABLERNSLOSS(N,M) RESERVOIRLOSEFS IN DM4 PER MONTM * SOURCE:DJO COHDINED IT! PAO WCTODISTRIBUTI9O * DAL1USINEQUATED VITO LOOJAXIA, QIROU, LOROERNAMD KIALANOD WITS 8HEX JAN FE MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC LONGYANI .006 .013 .022 .033 .042 .048 .046 .040 .031 .022 .013 .008 LOOJAZIA .003 .005 .010 .014 .018 .021 .020 .018 .014 .009 .006 .004 DALIUSWU .003 .005 .010 .014 .018 .021 .020 .018 .014 .009 .006 .004 QIlOU .012 .016 .026 .037 .048 .057 .056 .051 .037 .026 .017 .012 LONOWN .012 .016 .026 .037 .048 .057 .056 .051 .037 .026 .017 .012 SAMSKEA .012 .016 .026 .037 .048 .057 .036 .051 .037 .026 .017 .012 XIALANCD .012 .016 .026 .037 .048 .057 .056 .051 .037 .026 .017 .012 S PARAMBTERNRL ();

TAKL RLO(,N) LOWER RULE CURV (RATIO OF CAPACITY) * RUW CURVESASSUME DALIUSHV, QIROU AND LONGKENOPERATED LIKE XIAOLANGDI LONGYAIX LOOJAXIk $AIMEMA XIALANGD QIKOULWNGMEN DALIUSWU JUL 0.1968 0.1364 0.00 0 0 0 0 AJC 0.1968 0.1364 0.00 0 0 0 0 SEP 0.1968 0.1364 0.00 0 0 0 0 OCT 0.1968 0.1364 0.00 0 0 0 0 NOV 0.1968 0.1364 0.00 0 0 0 0 DEC 0.1968 0.136 0.00 0 0 0 0 JAN 0.1968 0.1364 0.00 0 0 0 0 PU 0.1968 0.1364 0.00 0 0 0 0 MAR 0.1968 0.1364 0.00 0 0 0 0 APR 0.1968 0.1364 0.00 0 0 0 0 MAY 0.1968 0'.1364 0.00 0 0 0 0 JUN 0.1968 0.1364 0.00 0 0 0 0

TABLE RUP(K,) UPPER RULE CURVE(RATIO OF CAPACITY) • LOOJAXI MM UPPERLIMIT EQUALTO 0.9088 BEFOREDAIUsRu ON-LINE * OURAGe LOOJAXIAPU UPPERLIMIT TO 1.000 WRENDALIUSUU ON-LINZ IN 2010 • RULf CURVESASSUME QlKOU AID LOUGHENOPRBATED LIK ZIALANGOY • RULE CURVESASSUME DALTUSED OPERATED LIKE LOOJAXIA LONGYANKLOOJAXIA SAHUENX& XIALASOD QIKOU LONONENDALIUSUU JUL 0.8976 0.7398 0.008 0.187 0.196 0.196 0.8978 AUG 0.8976 0.7398 0.008 0.187 0.196 0.196 0.8978 SEP 1.0000 1.0000 1.000 0.187 0.196 0.196 1.0000 OCT 1.0000 1.0000 1.000 0.51s 0.196 0.196 1.0000 NOV 1.0000 1.0000 1.000 0.617 0.392 0.392 1.0000 DEC 1.0000 1.0000 0.024 0.617 0.392 0.392 1.0000 JAN 1.0000 1.0000 0.024 0.617 0.392 0.392 1.0000 PEB 1.0000 0.9088 0.024 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.9088 MAR 1.0000 1.0000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0000 APR 1.0000 1.0000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0000 MAY 1.0000 1.0000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.0000 JUN 0.8976 0.7398 0.008 0.283 0.392 0.392 0.89781 PARAIgTERRULELO(M,J) LOWER RULE CURVE FOR TiE DAMS (MCM) RULEUP(,N) UPPERRULE CURVEFOR THE DAMS(WCM) ; RULLO(M,N) - RLO(M,N)*RESDATUN,uRCAP"); RULEUP(,N) - RUP(M,N)*RESDATA(N,URCAP")l RULELO(K,"EN') - 0; RULEUP04,11""? - .4; RULEUP("JUNff,fEN") * .1; RULSUP('JULa,"FENf) * 1 RULEUP(OAUGO,"PBN")- It TABLE XLSTOR(X,*) ELEVATION-STORAGERELATIONSEIP * QUADRATIC,COEPA w CONST, COPB - STORAGZ,COZFC - STORAGZSQUARED * MAXDTPB - MAK DISCHARGZT0RU POWERHOUSZ(BCH) COEFA COFB COEPC MAXUTPF LONGYARB 2506.903 6.190723 -0.087857 3.133 LOOJAXIA 1685.360 19.058535 -1.640662 3.548 - 270 -

amU PR0GIM* LISTING 1OR 2000 YEAR8UN

DALIUSNU 1343.769 0.011177 -0.000001 3.548 QIKOI 765.211 0.013046 -0.000002 2.628 LOEQEEN 497.494 0.028180 -0.000002 2.628 8AXN&A 305.577 19.898370 -4.93435 2.628 ZIALANGD 244.300 9.415665 -0.66787 4.920 TAhE T171(R,*) TAILVATERFLOW-ELEVATION RELATIONSNIP * LINEAR, COEFA* CNST, CO011 a SLOPE * LIM WAS 2450.15, SK 277.537 C0EFA COEFB LONGYANI 2456.150 1.762240 LOOJAXIA 1628.390 1.264300 DALIUKSE 1238.873 0.000143 QIKOV 663.124 0.001995 LONNH 389.832 0.001173 SAIDENZA 292.537 0.599345 XIALANOD 135.019 0.000406 t LCLAR tVABGYP VALUEOF PEAKING EERGY IN YUAN PER KWO /.36 t VAhIG VALUEOF BASE LOAD ENERGYIN YUANPER KWH 1.0475/, TARL RORDAKA(N,*)RUN-OF-RIV NYDRO PROJET Al * DERIVED nON YUCO, 1988 REVISED SUnI#Y OF RMORTON THE YELLOW RIVER * CONNDATE COIIaSSIOCNG DATE, 1990 SIMLY DENOTESEXSTING * MAX ESIGN MAX INSTALL AVG CAIAC * 8 BAD RE D C18CI CAPACENRY FACTOR * LS/SLI^VE Liwi K N GW * ADAlt GUESSES CEPT TM LUJAXA, QINCTO NANEAD DEAD KAD INCAP AVG-U CFACT LAZIWA 220.0 200. 3720 9740 29.9 LIBJAZIA. 135.6 120. 2000 5920 33.8 fONGEBOU 103.0 s0 1500 4700 35.8 YANGUA 39.5 38 1260 352 2050 66.5 RAPAUA 19.5 16 1250 180 1050 66.6 DAXXA 31.4 28 300 1470 55.9 QlNTOMNa 22.0 18. 1928 272 SANSNENG 8.6 8. 40 180 51.4 VAUJAJAI 80.5 60. 1020 2820 31.6 TIAQIAO 20.2 15. 878 128 610 54.4 ;

*'GT P9o INLO TO START PARAMtR INFLOWNM,K) toSEAL(lter)/ 1 9.88, 2 17.47, 3 24.2, 4 37.67/ i INFLOW(N,K)* I1("901,1N,K) scaur tooe* /0/; PARAMETERALLOC(R)/ 1 1.45, 2 3.04, 3A 4., 3B 5.86, 4 1.55, 5A 3.814, 53 2.746, 6 1.0555, 7A 4.4845, 7B 9.1/

$STITLE MODELDEFINITION VARIARLE OBJ1 OBJ2 OBJ9

LO(It,Nl,M) FLOWS ALONG RIVER REACIIES (BCH) DlVA(ll,R,lt) DlVER8lO11 TO AMCRtCLTURL (BCI) DlVtt(R,M) DlVER8ICll 10 mu (BCH{) RCOliT(Nl,l) DD-07-tMORT R lUSS IRW COWNTS (DMI) SIM(lI,) U8RVIRIVATlION (t{) r^IBLV(II,F) TAlLWATLk ISLll:ATIOI (H) SKRGYM,M4 TOA Ll1ERGII EARATED AT RLSERVOMR (01B) XMRBGI tl) BASE IO^D ISlnRGYGRERATED AT RESBRVO1R8 (onI) MEROMM,P(X) PR^RTRC ENERGYGENERATED AT RESERVOIRO MEW) -271 -

GMlmPROGRAM LISTING OR.2000 no*1 SUN nuU

PLSLt(u,K) PEAK LOADSLACK ENERGYP(n,m) ENERGYGENERATED AT R-0-R PLNTS (0Wl) PTPN(n,M) FLOWTERD POWRRHOUSXS (BUK) FS(t,1) FLOWSPILLtD (nCM) SEA(M1) FLOWSTo SEA (BO() ARTVAT(N,M) ARTIFICIAL WATERSUPPLY TO ENSUREFEASIBILITY ICA(R,C) SIRRITAED CROPPEDAREA (M)U) RCA(R,C) IRRIGATEDCROPPED ARE USED AS RAINFED (M1U) FW(R,C) FULL WATERREQUIRDEMRN DURING STRESS HONTHS SYM(R,C,M) WATERREDUCTION DURING STRESS MONTHS SWT(R,C) SUN Or ABOVzOVER MONTHS YIELD(R,C) ENDOGENOUSIRRIGATED YIELD RORSLK(N,M) RUN OF RIVER SLACKENERG IsF CAPACITYIS EXCEEDED EQUATIONS IALL(N,K) NODZEAlANCES (BOM) NULAST(H) LAST NODE (BM) BLEVEQ(NM) ELERATIONDZFINITION (H) TWELVEQ(N,H) TAILVATERELEVATION DEFINITION (M) POMMQR(N,M) POWER DEINITION FOR RESBRVOIRS (GWN) POWEQP(v,M) POWERDFINITION JFOR R-0-R PLANTS (GMN) POWSPLIT(N,M) SPLIT ENERGYTO BASE LOADAND PEAKING mxNpzAZ(N,M) MAXMTI(B,M) MAXFLOW THRU POWEROUSES (BCM) WATBAL(R,M) WATERBALANCES FOR REGIONS LAJDC(R,C) LANDCONSTRAINI BY IRRIGATEDCROP YDEF(R,C) ENDOGENOUSYIELD DEFINITION IDEFN(R#C) YiELD DEPFNITION FOR HON STRESSZDCROPS ruRIt(C) FULL WATERREQ DURINGSTRESS MOBTES SMDEF(R,C) SOIL MOISTUREDEFICIT MAUSTIR(R,C) MAXIMUMSTRESS MINSEA CONSTRAINTTO PROTECTESTUARY NMIV(R) MAXIMUMDIVERSIONS ACCORDING TO APPORTIONOENT OBitDEF AGRICULTURBONLY OBJ2DE AGRICULTURBPLUS HYDROPOWEREXCLUDING REGION 7 OBJ3DV AGICULTUR PLUSwYDROPOWER INAL(N,HM$(NOTNL(N).. IUFLOV(N,M)$IN(N) + SUmg(1ONN(N1,N),FLOW(N1,N, M*(I-PLOSS(N1,N))) + (RCONT(N,M--1)-RCONT(N,H))$(NREs(N)$SUM(YR$YS(YR),RCS(N,YR))) - RESLOSS(U,I$(RZS(N)$SUK(YR$YS(YR), RCS(N,YR))) - SUK(R$RN(N,R), DIVA(N,R,M)) - SUK(R$RBCU(N,R), CUWREQ(R,M)) * MSSUME10 RXTUJR RONM CONJUNCTE USE AREAS + SUK(R$RN(X,R),DIVA(N,R,K--1)*IRRDATA(R,NRETAC")) - SUM(R*HN(N*R),DIV(R,N)) + SMU(R$M(N,R), DlVK(R,M--l)*XIDA?A(R,"MIRFAC")) * ARTWAT(N,M)$IN(N) mE- YMU(11$1(N,U1),W(N,U1,m)) ; ELXVEQ(X,M)$(XRZP(N$SUK(YR$YS(YR),RCS(N,YR))).. ELZV(N,M) as= ZLSTOlt(N,*COEFA") * ELSTOR(N,"COPBl)*'(RCONT(N,H),+PCOT(N,M--1) )12 + ELSTOR1(,"COECU)*SQ({(RCOT(N,M)+RCOT(N,M--l))I2) J TUSLVEQ(N,M)$(Ng(N)$SUM(YR$YS(YR), RCS(S,YR))).. TWELV(N,M) E- TFMT(N*,OPA") + TFlT(N,UOOFBU")*FTHB(NJ,O) P0 JQR(E,H)$(NRZP(N)$SW(YRS(YR),RCS(R,YR))).. IMGR(N,M) uEu ((EV(N,M) - TWEV(N,M))$MRES(N)) *720*Flrl(N,M).81*.85*iFAC(0) /10**6 t POQPNIIM)8(NRORN)8SW(YRYS(), YPCS(N,YR))).. ENERCYP(N,M)+ RORSLK(NX,) EB ORDATA(J,"MDBAD )*8M(Nl$(Xl ), FLOW(N,N1,H))) *720*9 .S1*.85*EFAC(K) 1o**61

POWPLT(s,I)$(UB(U)$SUM(YR$TS(YR), P0S(U,YR))).. - 272 -

Gam WMLI=T=N 10 2000 TM* RUNME 14

ENERt(N,K) "B0 NUGROM(N,) + EBNRGYRP(N,N) I MINPZAE(N,I4)$(f3P(N)SSBUKYR$TS(TR),C8t(N,YR))).. ERGIRPS(N,O)+ PLSLRK(J,)-Ow (RISDATA(g,"IICAP")*24*hATS(M)o)1000)*.251

K&TUNA U,tW*(RP()8SU(Rt S(YR), 108(3,11))).. ITPN(N) aL- 8U1(NR$NN(3,N1),ILOV(N,NI,K)) _ YS(N,K)$NRES(N); MAXDIV(R).. SUK(N,K)*(N,R), DIVA(1,R,M)*(1-I1RDATA(1,fRETFAC#))) 1 81UMt, CUWREQ(R,K)) + SUK(K, DlVK(R,K)*(l-MIDASTA(,"MIRFAC"))) =Ln ALLOCCR);

UBLAST(M).. TLOWMLJIN",1BOMISEA"0,K) d"" SEAI();

MINUA.. S114(, SEAIO)) "0- toasGt ATBAL(R,m).. S4(N$R3(N,R),DVA(Nsl,RI))*1000*TEIWAC(1).ZJ 513(C, MAW(R,C,K)*ICL(R,C))- sg(COSSMO(I,C,K),SWM(R,C,K))l

LADC(R,C)$TION(R,C).. ICA(R,C)+ RCA(R,C).1- IABC(R,C)*fl UDA=(R,C)$SSS(R,C).. IW(R,C) .1" nV(R,C)*ICA(R,C) I SWDIF(R,C)$SSS(R,C).. SW(R,C) Em.SU4(K$SSKO(R,C,K), 84(R,C,0)) I mh(R1,C)$SSS(R,C).. TItLD(R,C)-1- LDStR(R,C) (Il-KYIC)*l6WT(R,C)/FUIR,C))); TEVZM(R,C)$(TUON(R,C)$S8R(R,C))..ThBLD(R,C) =1" ILDSIRR(R,C); KAXS!R(R,C)*SS8(R,C).. WZ(R,C) -Lm VW(R,C)*R7K(R)#

* OBJ01KAhaIZZS VALUR ADDED IN ERICATEDAGRICULTORE OBJIDRE..0BJ1 -. SVKNI(1$33(M1), SRA(M1))*.1 + SUK((R,C)$TEOC(R,C), ICA(R,C)*(IITB(R,C)IlOOO*PRICE(1,C)- COSTS(R,C))) -SW((N,K)$IN(N) ,ARIAT(N,K)*10**6)t

* OU2 NAXIMZES VA IN AG PLUSVALUg OF BP IGNORINGREGION I OBJ2DI.. OW2 *E- SMW(X1KM(), SRA(K1))*.O1 + SUK((R,C)$TZn (R,C)$R1N7(R)), ICA(R,C)*(YIZLD(R,C)/1000*lRICZ(R,C) - COSTS(R,C))) SWK((N,E)$#I(N),ARTWAT(,tK)*O**9) - SUE(CN,R,K)*(17(R)*RN(3,R)),DIVA(N,R,K)*10) - 8W((,R,K)$(RN7(R)$RX(N,R)), DIVA(N,R,II)*.001) + 8W( (N,IK ( 8nR(N)#$(YY8 (IR), RC08(N,)R)), EIBRGTRB(N,K)*VAGT) * 8M((N,K)$(R2P(N)$SUK(11$RS(IR), RCS1(N,R))), ZNGRYRP(,NI)*VAEGTP) + 3w((,K)M(XROR(N)$SM(IR$T8(R), PCS(N,3R))), ZNRGP(,)*VAEGYB) * OBJ03KIZZS VA IN A PLUS VALUEO BP INCLUDINGREGION 7 OBJ3DZ.. OBJ3 -I- SUM(433(M1), SZA(K1))*.01 * SUK((R,C)8DZcN(R,C), ICA(R,C)*(YINW(R,C)I1000*PRICE(R,C) - COSTS(R,C))) - S8((N,K)$IN(N),ATIAWAT(3,K)*10**9) - SUK((N,K),PLsLK(N,K)*IO**3) + 8RC((N,K)8(NRRP(N)$SUK(1R$YS(11),RC8(J,YR))), EUUGMR3(N,K)*VAEGI3) + SU N(M,K)(NREP(N)$$UK(YR$TI(TR), RCS(J,YR))), RNBRGYRP(N,N)*VABGYP) + IUEt((X,K)$(.ROR(N)$IUK(YR$TI(YR),PCI(N,YR))), ZNUGYP(N,K)*VAEGT3);

* SZT ROUNDS DMY.11(R,K) - KIDUI*ND(R,X)IMIDATA(R,'IZI")l IIAV.UP("SANISIDQIG", III_', "J ) * .735; - 273 -

CASNP3001W LISTING FOR 2000 TSAR 1 mm

FLOV.UPeSANSG'%t"EeOZNEN", UKAR#) *.814; * followitg Is pumplag capacity frwm YR of 2S.83 ces DIVA.UP(OLONGIENU",SA3,)a .068; * follawisgto pumping capacityfrom YR of 71 cm DIVA.UP("LOR0 Xe",M 510,K) - .1865; FLOV.LO("LIJIN-,vBOIlSEAU ,N) - .0791 RESDTlA("XIALANGDW,URCAP") - 0; RESLOSS(OXIJALAND M l) a 0; RCOUT.LO(URES,M)a RUL8LO(,NRES); RCONT.UP(IRE,K) a RULEUP(M,DES)s RcOOT.n"xIALANGD,N) - 0; YIELD.UP(R,C)- YLDSIRR(R,C); RCA.UP(R,"PADDY") - O0 RCA.UP(1l',C) - 0; FW.LO(R,C)- .11

* SOLVEFOR MAXAGRICULTURAL VALUE ADDZD TO GET A RASIS ODELBMIIBAL,UIA8STVATBAL,LADC,IFDEF,SIFDYDEF,YDEFM,NAXSTR,OSJ1DEFlI OPTIO LIHROIIO, LnCOL=O, ITERLIN-10000, SOLPRINT- OFF; SOLVE 3L)1 MAXIHIZINGOBJI USING NLPI * SET BOUNDSFOR AC PLUS RYDRORUN ELSlOR("XIALANGD, ,MAXDTPE") 0; FTPR.UP(N,H)$NRES(N) s ELSTOR(N,"KAXDTPHn)$ TPfL.UP("8AXKlMUw,N)KS3KM) - ELSTOR(ISAIWNE","MAXDTPI")*.75; *folllaoSgsets capacitybounds ZllRGYP.UP(N,M)$YROR(N)- RORDATA(N,INCAPI)*24*UDAYS(K)I1000; EKUEGTRP.UP(N,N)$(8REP(N)$SCK(YR$YS(YR),RCS(N,YR))) - RESDATA(N,UINCAP")*24*UDA8(S)*.2511000; *SETS AND PARAMETERSFOE REPORTS SETS RIOIRUNOFF,ROK-N-1,RETURNS,TO?-INFLO,DIV-AG,DIV-M+I,TO-N+1I R12/RUNOFF,nRO-N-1N,TOT-IUFlO,DIVERs,TO-N+1,STORzD,cN-STORI ll4jACONT,EILV,NEAD,DTlP,ENERGY,EGT-SPLD,CAPACITY/;

PARANKTUS HVIO( DEP,N,R3O) WATERB LANCESAT DESIRED NODES RXP12(RESZlS,R12) RESERVOIROPERAIMONS RS?P4(NMl,Ril4) UYDROPOVEROPERATIORS RZP11(*,Sl1) BASIN-WIDEWATER BAhLANCE REP13 IMFEASIBILITY FLAGS RISP17 IRRIGATEDACRICULTURAL ACTIVITY EGTOUT(*t*) EGTVALUE(*) REP24(*,*) DESIRED DIVERSIONSIN NCM R3P25(*,*) SIKULTDDIVERSIONS IN CM REP26(*,*) SHORTFALLIN DIVERSIONSIN DCM REP27(R,C) IRRIGATEDTIELDS KG PUR MU REP28(R,C) IRRIGATEDYIELDS AS PCT OF MAXIMUM RSP29(*,*) IRRIGATEDAREA CROPPED MILLION MU RSP3O(*,*) IRRIGATEDPRODUCTION MILLION TONS REIPTD(*,NEP) RYDROGRAMNSAT SELECTEDNODES PROB(ITER)/ 1 90, 2 75, 3 50, 4 25/;

SCALARPP

MODEL ESI2/INAL,NSLAST,ATBAL,LANDC,FWDEV,SMDEF,YDEF,YDEFN,NAXSTR,OBJ2DEF,MIVEAl, OBJIDEZ,OBJ3DZF, EI. ,TUELVEQ, POWEQR,PoVeqP,trMAI,P0SnTPLIT,mlxaI

PARAMETERRESBASE(N,*); PARAMET RESPAK(N,*) RAMI RORPLEwYN,*); Sgr L1WADIV,ALOS ,AGOON,IDIV,MILOS ,MICONI1 PARAMETERREPlA(*,*)' PARAMETER3EP113(*,*); - 274 -

am33110013LISINWG NOR 2000no AR -n J 6

PARAKETEREGIIU(N,K,*) * FH*I*****9,I,I,9Eu9EDD,,DDF,u,EIgDDg,#8,u,ggg,,* * START LOOP OVERPROBABILITIES * ROTS THE ORDERIS 90, P7S, PSO, P25 * It#JDDPDDIDDDDDDSD**DD*DDDDDDDDDDDDDDD##11#DDOl89999D1919 SCALAR TOTINW; LOOP(ITt, PP a PROB(ITt)s TOSEA a toSlAl(ltT)*.7S OPTION PPtsO DISPLAY "PROBABILITYOF THIS SOLUTION",PF; INFLOW(N,) - SUM(PR$PRITER(ITt,PR), INFF(PR,N,M)); OPTION INFLOW:2; DISPLAY "REACHGAINS FOR THIS RUN", INFLOW; TOTINF - SUM((N,K), INFLOW(N,K))# DISPLAT TOTINF; *SHIS IS A TWOSTAGE PROCESS, SOLVEFIRST FOR AUl. REGIONSBUT 7A AND 7B *TBlN SET RESULTINGREGIONS 1-6 DIVERSIONSAS LOER BOUNDSAND SOLVE *FOR ALL REGIONS * TURN OFF XLD *SLOSS(OXIALANGD",K)o 0; 'OlUT.FX("XIALANGD",M) a 01 'TPI.UP("XIIAlAGD",K) a 0;

DIVA.W(N,R,K) a 0; 0?Zli" MOLPRINT- OFF, RESLIZ499991 SOLVE BLK2MAXIMIZING OBJ2 USING NLPI RCONT.LO(IRES,K) a RULELO(K,lRZS); RCO1T.UP(NRES,K) a RULEUP(M,NRES)l FTPH.UP(N,M)$NRES(N) a ELSTOR(N,"KAXDTPH")9 DIVA.LO(N,R,H) - DIVA.L(N,R,K)*.999; DIVA.LO(N,R7,K) a 0; OPTION SOLPMINT a ONt SOLVEBLU2 KAXIHIZINGOBJ3 USING iLl; 'REPORT ON NODALWATER BALANCES RRPlO(IBEP,$,"RUNOFFr) - INFLOW(NBEP,M); REPIN( BE^,,"FROK-N-1")a SUM(NI$MN(NL,RBEP),FLOW.L(Nl,NBSP,K)); REPLO(NBEP,K, "RETURNS") * SUK(R$RN(NBEP,R),DIVA.L(NBEP,R,K--1)*IRRDATA(R,"RETFAC")) + SUK(R$Mf(BEP,R), DIVK.L(R,K--1)QIIDATA(R,"KIRFAC"))I REPlC(NBEP,, "TOT-INF0O") = RPlO( NBEP,,"RUNOFF") + REPlO(NBEP,M,"RETURNS") + RRPlO(NBEF,K,"lOK-N-l")s REPlO(NBRP,M,"DIV-AG") * 8UK(R$RX(NHEP,R),DIVA.L(UBEP,R,K)) + SUM(R$RNCU(NSEP,R),CUWREQ(R,K))I REPlO(NBEP,K, "DIV-M+I") - SUK(R$Mf(KBEP,R),DIVK.L(R,M)); REPo(1EP,K "TO-N+1") - SUK(NI$UN(NSEP,NI),FLUW.L(NBEP,NI,K)); REPIO(NBEP,"TOTAL",R10) a SUK(K,REPI0(NBEP,K,RI0)); REP1O(NBEP,1,RI10) - ROUND(REPIO(NBEP,MI,RI0),2); OPTION REPlOi2suuI; DISPLAY REPIOI *REPORTON RESERVOIROPERATIONS REP12(NRES,K,"RUNOFF")$su(yr$ys(yr), rcs(ares,yr))* INFLOW(NRES,K); REP12(NRES,K,"FROK-N-l")$aua(yr$ya(yr),rces(ares,yr)) = SUK(NI$NN(N1,HRES),PLOW.L(Nl,NRES,M)); REP12(lCRE,K,"TOT-INFLO")$su(yr$ys(yr),rcs(ares,yr)) - REP12(NRES,14, RUNOFFm) + RUP12(NRS,H, ,"1FR0-N-1"); REPl2(RES,K,"DIVERS")$sua(yw$ys(yr),osafaree,yr)) a SUK(R$RN(NRES,R),DlVA.L(NRE8,R,M))+ SUKcA$NN(URRS,R),DIVK.L(R,H)); REP12(NRRE,K,T"O-+1")$au.(yw$ys(yr),ras(ures,yr)) - SUK(1N$NK(NRES,Nl),FLOW.L(NRESN31,K)); REP12(NRES,K,"STORED")$aum(yg$ys(yr)qrcs(ares,yr)) - RCONT.L(NRERS,K) REP12(NRES,K,"OC-STOR")#.ua(yr$y.(yr),rse(nres,yr)) - ROUND((ROONT.L(NRES,K)- RCONT.L(lRES,K--l)),3); REP12(lRRS,*TOTAL",R12)- SUM(K,REP12(NRES,K,R12)); REP12(RtES,"TOTAL","STORlD")* O0 RSP12(NRRS,lTOTAL*,"OC-STOR") * 0; - 275 -

GM OMLSTI WOR 2000 TZR 11l Umm

OPTION REPI2s2sltl: DISPLAY REP121

* REPORT N DEIZ8REDWATER DIVBRSIONS 2E24(R,K) - SUK(C, IABC(R,C)*WRZQ(R,C,K))IIRRDATA(R,#CF")/1000 + CUWREQ(R,K)I R2PI4(R,K) a ROUND(RE124(R,K),3)1 REP24('TOTAL.",K) - SlE, RIP24(R,N))t R1P24(R,#TOTALw)a SUN(K, REP24(R,O)); SEP24 ("TOTAL","TOTAL) - SUK(K, REP24("TOTAL",H))I

* REPORTON SIMULATEDWATER DIVERSIONS RZP25(R,K) w SUM(X$RN(N,R),DIVA.L(N,R,H)) CUWREQ(R,K)i REI2S(R,M) - ROUND((REP25(R,M)),3)1 REP25T"OTAL"M,) - SE(R, RZP25(R,3)); 3ZP25(R,"TOTAL")a SUK(K, REP25(R,K))l REP25V("TOTAL","TOTAL") SSUtN(, REP25("TOTAL",M)); * lUSPORT011 81RT1ALLS REP26(R,K) - REP24(R,M) - REP25(R,K)l REP26(R,U) w ROUUD(REP26(R,M)S3)1 E126("TOTAL",K)a SUK(R, REP26(R,K))l EP26(R,"TOTALO) a 813CM(,REP2G(R,O)); SRP26("TOT*L09"TOTAL") = Sl3M(, REP26("TOTAL"U,))l *RZPO078 ON YIELDS, AREA AND PRODUCTION REP27(R,C)$TEBC(R,C)a YIELD.L(R,C); REP28(R,C)$TWCM(R,C)a YIE.L(R,C)*100IYLDSIRR(R,C)t RZP29(R,C) - ZCA.L(R,C)l REP29{(TOTAL",C) a ROUND(SU(Re REP29(R,C))*3); REP29(R,"TOTAL") * ROUINDCS13(CCREP29(RtC)),3)1 REP29(R,"SIM-INT*) n REP29(R,"TOTAL")/IASW(R)I 3ZP29CR,#ACT-NTl") - 6U1(C, CROPAT(R,C))I100I REP29("TOTAL, "TOTAL") a83UI(C, REP29 ("TOTAL",C)) REP29("YTOTAL","SIN-INT") - REP29('%TOTAL"q'TOTAL"#) ISW(R, IASW(R))t SEP29 ("TOTAL", "ACT-INT") u 1AB("TOTAL","TOTAL" ) SUMR, IASW(R)); 3EP29(R,C) * ROUND(REP29(R,C),2); SEP30(R,C) a ICA.L(R,C)*YIELD.L(R,C)/1000; REP30("TOTALUC) a SUM(R, REP30(R,C)); 3EP30(R,K) a ROUND(REP30(R,M),2)1 3EP26(R,K) a ROUND(REP26CR,M),2)l OPTION REP27sO, REP28t:O REP26t2, REP29s2, REP30s2, REP24t2, REP25s2,REP26s2; DISPLAY REP28, REP29, REP30, REP24, REP25, REP26; *REPORTON MYDROOPERATIONS REP14(CREP,K,"ACONT")$.u,U(yr$ys(yr), rcs(arep,y)) (RCONT.L(MSEP,M)+RCOIT.L(NREP,K--1))/2; REP14CNREP,N,"ELEVR)$sunCyr$ys(yr), rcstarep,yr)) ELSTOR(NREP,"COEFA") * ELSTORNREP,"COEFB")*REP14(NREP,M,"ACONT") + ELSTOR(NREP,"COEFC")*SQRCREP14 (REP,M, "ACONT")); REP14(NRZP,K,"EAD")$saum(yr$ys(yr), resa(rep,yr)) ( ELSTOR(NREP,"COEFA") * ELSTOR(MtEP,"COEFB")*CRCONT.L(CN3P,M--I)+RCONT.L(NREP,M))/2 4 ELSTOR(NREP,"COEFC")*SQR((RCOT.L(REP,K--1)+RCONT.L(IIREP,K))J2) - TWVLV.LCNREP,M))I REPI4(CROR,N,,"EA")$oua(yr$y (yr), peoCator,yr)) RORDATAUIROR,t"DREAD"); REP14(NR P,O,"DTPNO)$sum(ye$ys(yr), rea(urepoyr)) a PTPH.LCNREP,A)'KFAC(M)i REP14CROR,M,"DTPDN)$sum(yr$ys(yr), pcsearor,yr)) a SUH(D1$Nl(NROR,Nl) , FLOW.L(IROR,Ul,N))*FAC(M)s ERP14(CRSEP,K,"EERGT")$sum(yr$ys(yr), rcs(drep,yr)) - EXERCR.L(NREP,H)s RSP14(NREP,NTOTAL","EmERGY")$sum(yr$ys(yr), rcs(arep,yr)) a SU(M, ENERGYR.L(NREP,M))t

RSP14ClROR,K,"ENERGYT)$.um(yr$ys(yr), pac navor,yr)) EINERCYP.LCNROR,M)l RBP14CNROZ,"TOTAL","ERGY")$suua(yr$ys(yr), pcs(nror,yr)) - 513CM, ENERGYP.LCNROR,K))s - 276 -

GMS PROGRUALISTIXG IOR 2000 TER RUN

REP14( WO,HI,R14) a ROUND(REP14(NPOV,E*,R14)42); REP14(tREP,EIR 14) - ROUNDMREP14(CREP,1IR14),2); DISPLAY "KEY FOR 0YDROOPERAIlONS REPORT" DIsPLAY " ACONT- AVERAGERESERVOIR COTENTIS FOR THE MONTH IN BCH" DISPLAY" ELZV - AVERAGELAUE ELEVATIONFOR TIE MONTHIN MEERS" DISPLAY" RAD - AVERAGEEFFECTIVE HEAD FOR THE KMOT IN IETERS" DISPLAY " OTIS - DISCHARGETURU POVERHOUSEBCUCHMON="I OPTON1 P14s2tslsl DISPLAY REP14i *qUlCZ AND DIMT POWZR R8PORT REUASSEN,E) M B .L(N,M)l RESPEAK(N,M)- EHERGTRP.LO,N)o RORPLUT(N,M) WEERGYP.L(N,K)s RESBASE(N,"TOTALa) - 8U13C, RESBASECN,M)); R3SPEAKCN,"TOTAL")a BUK(C, RESPRAZM,M))s RORPLIr(N,"TOTAL")- BUK,H RORPLNT0N,M)) OPION RZSRASBs2; DISPLAY RESEASE; OPTION RESPEAK*2I DISPLAY RESPRARt OMI10 RORPPLTs2; DISPLAY RORPLWEi *REPORTON AGRICULTURALACTIVITY 3ZP17(R, "311-AREA") - lASUCR); UEP17(R,"IRR-AREA") - 5U3(C, ICA.L(R,C)); RZP17(R,"CUI-ARMA*)- CUAC); RP17(R,"REID-ARTA")- 8UK(CC,RCA.L(R,C)); 31P17(R, "RFD-AREA")a ROUMD(REP17CR,"RFD-AREA"),2); RP317(R,01R-AREA")- ROUNDRZP17(R,"IRR-ARZA"),2); REP17(R,"SIM-DIVR")a SUl((K, REPIS(R,K))g RRP17(R,"VAL-PRODN*)a 51CC, ICA.LR,C)*TIELD.L(R,C)*PRICE(R,C))/1000000O REP17(R,*VAL-AODED")a RZP17(R,"VAL-PRODN")-(SUK(C* ICA.L(R,C)*COSTS(R,C)))/10001 REP17(R,"GRAINS")* 811(C$CG(C),ICA.L(R,C)*YIELD.L(R,C))I10001 RZP17(R,*VP/U") R3EP17(R,"VAL-PRODN")*1OOO/REP17 (R,"FF-AREA"); REP17(R"VA/IM")- REP17(R,"VAL-ADDED")*1000IREP17(R,"EFF-AREA")i RZP17("T0TAL"N"VAL-ADDED")- SUK(R, REP17(R,"VAL-ADDED")); RZP17("TOTAL",",w-AREA") 81(R,U REP17(R,"ZFF-AREA")); E1017("TOTAL","IRR-ARA") - SUK(R, REP17(R,"IRR-ARZA"))s RZP17("TOTAL"8"CUI-AREA") - SUK(R3,REP17(R,"CUi-AREA"))R REP17("TOTAL", "RID-AREA") a CUK(R,REP17(R,"RID-AREA"Z)) 3RP17("T0TAL""*SIK-DIVR") a CUK(R,REP17(R,"8IM-VIVR"))o R3P17("TOTAL","VAL-PROlD") - 5UC(R, R3P17(R,"VAL-PRODN")); REP17C"TOTAL","GRAINS") a 8UK(R3 REP17(R,"GRAINS")); REPIVC"TOTAL","VP/WUi)- REP17C"TOTAL","VAL-PRODN")*1000/REP17("TOTAL", "EF-AREA")I REP17("TOTAL","VA/"W")a REP17("TOTAL","VAL-ADDED")*1000/REP17C"TOTAL","EFF-AREA"); *REPORT ON WATER BALANCE REP11(K,"RUNOFF")- SUM(X$IZ(N)qINFLOW(NM))t

REP11(E,"RETURNS")= 8lX((R,N)$RN(N,R),DIVA.L(N,R,M--1)*IRRDATA(R,"RETFAC")) + 8UK(R, DIVM.L(R,E--1)*EIDATA(R,"MIRFAC"))I

3P111(C,"TO-M+I")= SUK(R,DIVK.L(R,K)); REPLIM"TO-AG") a SUKC((R,)$RN(N,R),DIVA.LCN,R,M)) + 5UM(R, CUWREQ(R,4)); REPIC(K9,"ETDIV") - REPll(K,"TO-M+I") + REPll(K,"TO-AG") - REPILCM,"RETURNS")t RZP111(,"TO-SEA")* FLOW.L("LIJIN,"BORAISEA" ,M)

REP11fQ,"LOSSE8")* SUK(MIN*RES(NM)$UK(CROYSM(I),RC0(N,YR))), RESLOSS(CN,))

+ SUM((N1,N)$NU(N1,N),FLOW.L(N1,I,K)*FLOSS(N1,N));

*RZP1C(M,"TOT-RGY") a SUKC$JNRZS(N),EUERGYR.L(N,M)) * + SUMMA$RORM), ENERGYP.L(N,M)); RhP11("TOT","RUNOFF")- SUNC, REP11HK,"RUNOFF")); REP11("TOT","TO-AG") 5U11M,REP1IC(H"TO-AG")); REZ11("TOT","TO-E+I#)U 813(C, REP11(K,"TO-M+I")); REP1("TOT","RETURNS")* SU(CM, REPll(M,"RETURNS")); REPM1O"TOT"8"LOSSES")* SUCK, REPIC(K,"LOSSES")); - 277 -

VMSMmA unw M 2sooo ME a

REP11("TOT","IlITDIV") u SUlWIM,RUPI(Ks,"EIV")); R3Pl1("TOT","TO-SEA") - StUl(H, REPI1(,"TO-SEA")); *RE111 ("TOT","TOT-EOY") - SUI(K, REPll (X,"TOT-KGTf"))j REPIMA(R,"AODIV") - SUM((N,M)$RN(N,R), DIVA.L(N,R,K)) + SUM(, CUW3RQ(R,N))I REP11A(RW,AGLOS")- SUK((N,K)$RN(N,R), DIVA.L(N,R,K))*I1WRATA(R,URBTAC")I REPI1A(R,"ACCON") a REPILA(R,"AGDIV") - REPI1A(R,"AGLOS") REPLA(R,"KIDIV") - SUMt(M,DIVW.L(R,M))I REPlIA(R,WHILOS")- SUK(, DIVN.L(R,K))*IDATA(R,"KIRFACU)I RRPl1A(R,"*ICON") a REP11A(R,"OIDIV") - REP11A(R,"IIILOS"); RZPllA("TOTAL",S11A) - SU(R, REPIIA(R,S1IA)); OPTION REEPllAs2 DISPLAY REPIlA R3EPII(R,"lETDIV") IRtSPIA(R,"AGCON") + RBPllA(R,"KICON")l REPIlB(R,"ALLOC") A UALOC(R)l REP111("TOTAL","ALLOC") SUK(R, R3PllB(R,"ALLOC")); REPl1B("TOTAL","NETDIV")a S1U(R, RZPllB(R,"IIETDIV")); OPTION REPllBs2; DI8PLAY R3Pl1B;

REP1S(N,K)- ARTWAT.L(U,M); OPTION R3P1112, REP13:3,RPl7s2slll DISPLAY REP17, R3P11, R3P13;

*RZPORT o IERC OUSPUIS ANDVALUZ * ARE ROR PLANTS USED FOR PEAKING TO ANY EXENT? EGYOUT(K,"BL-RUS")a tU1(N,EUEGYRB.L(N,K)); GYWOUT(H,"BL-ROR")- 811U( E3EROYI.L(N,K))*.751 EGYOUT(H,"PL-RE5")* 8SW(N, ENEMGYRP.L(N,N))l EGYOUT(H,*PL-ROR")a SU(N, ENERGIP.L(N,K))*.25; EGYOUT(K,"PL-TOT") - MGYOUT(M,IPL-RES") + ECYOUT((,,"ML-ROR"); EGYOUT(K,"BL-TOT") - EGYOUT(K,"BL-RES") + EGYOlUT(K,"BL-ROR"); EOYOUT("TOTAL","BL-RES") - SU(H, ECTOUTH,"BL-RES")) EGYOUT("TOTAL"i,"PL-RES")-8UN1(N, EGYOUT(M,"P-RUS")); rGYOUT("TOTAL"",BL-ROR") a 8W(H, ECTOUT(M,"BL-ROR")) ECYOUT("TOTAL","PL-ROR")a SW(N, EGYOUT(K,"PL-ROR")); 3EYOUT("TOTAL","BL-TOT") a EGYOUT("TOTAL","BL-RES") + ZGYOUT(TOTAL,"BL-ROR")l ECYOUT("TOTAL", "L-TOT") - EGYOUT("TOTAl","PL-RZS") + ECYOUT("TOTAL", "P1-ROR"); 10YOUT(A"VLUE","IL-RES") - ECYOUT("TOTAL","BL-RES" )*VAIGYB; EGYOT(o"VALUE"z,"Pn-RS") - ECYOUT("TOTAL",on-LE")*VAEGYPi EGYOUT("VALUE","L-ROR") a EGYOUT("TOTAL","PL-3R")*VAEGYP; EGYOUT("VALUE";,"BL-ROR")a ECYOUT("TOTAL","BL-ROR")*VARGYI EGYOUT("VALUE", "TOT-ROR") a ZGYOUT("VALUE ,"Pl-ROR") + EGYOVT("VALE",t"IL-ROR"); ECYOUT("VALUE","TOT-RES")a ECYOUT("VALUEX""L-RES") + EGTOUT("VALU",wBIL-lE"); ZGYOUT("VALUE","TOT-TOT") EBGYOUT("VALUE", "TOT-RES") + EGYOUT("VALUE","TOT-ROM"); ZG11II(N,H,"TARGET") a (RSDATA(N,tINcAPr)*24*NDAYS(K)/ZOOO)*.251 EGHI N(X,11,"PEAKPOW") IEUERGYRP.L(N,K)l EGWIN(N,K,"PLSLK ") a PLSLK.L(N,K)t OPTION ECYOUTt2;DISPLAY TGYOUT; OPTION ZCYMIN12;DISPIAY 01113; *REPORT ON HNYDROGRAPHS SEPIDM(,NIEP) a SUM(N1$NN(flE ,31), PLOW.L(NlEP,U1,1)); REPfYD("ANNUAL",NlEP) a SW(H, REPNYD(H,NREP)); OPTION RRPHYDt2; DISPLAY REPHYD;

* * END OF LOOP PARAKETB DA(N,R) PARAKETBRDT(R)l DA(N,R) = S1(H, DIVA.L(N,R,N)); OPTION DA:3; DISPlAY DAI DT(R) = SUK(N, DA(N,R))lOPTION DT:3; DISPLAY DlT - 278 -

REFERENCES

JiangPing, 1991,"Irrigation Issues in the YellowRiver Basin." BankMission Report.

YRCC, 1988, "RevisedSummary of the Report on Yellow River Harnessingand DevelopmentPlanning." YRCCand CYJV,1991, The XiaolangdiProject, Volume I-"Project Brief." State CouncilDocument, 1988, 'Backgroundand Justificationof the XiaolangdiDam Project."

Leslie Smallet al., 1986, "RegionalStudy on IrrigationService Fees." Final Report. Kandy,Sri Lana: InternationalIrigation ManagementInstitute. BeijingInstitute of EnvironmentProtection, 1988, *Study of WaterResources and Pricing."

WorldBank Staff Appraisal Report, December 1, 1991,"China: YanshiThermal Power," ReportNo. 10201-CHA.

WorldBank Sector Report (White Cover), June 1992,"China: CoalTransport Study." YRCC, 1987,'Water Resources Utilization Study." YRCC,1990, -Report of the YellowRiver Improvement Planning," currendy under review by MWRand SPC.

YRCC, 1991,"Project Completion Report for the First Stageof the LowerYellow River FloodplainWorks." YRCC, 1988, "RevisedSummary of the Report on Yellow River Harnessingand DevelopmentPlanning," YRCC and CYJV, 1991, The XiaolangdiProject, VolumeI.

YRCC, 1992,"Preparatory Report on the Studyof InvestmentPlan on the YellowRiver Basin."

ProfessorZhang Dei Zhen, 1992, "GroundwaterResources and Utilizationin the Yellow River Basin,"Bank Mission Report.

LucienM. Brush,M. Wolman,Huang Bing-Wei, 1989, "Taming the YellowRiver: Silt and Flood,"Kluwer Academic Publishers Inc. - 279 -

World Bank Staff Appraisal Report, 1989, "Shaaxi, AgriculturalDevelopment Project, Report No. 7475-CHA(Limited Distribution).

World Bank Staff Appraisal Report, 1991, "Henan, Agricultural Development Project." Report No. 9041-CHA(Limited Distribution).

World Bank Staff AppraisalReport, 1989, 'Shandong, Agricultura DevelopmentProject," Report No. 7513-CHA(Limited Distribution).

World Bank Staff Appraisal Report, 1988, 'Northem Irrigation Project," Report No. 7059-CHA(Limited Distribution). - w4Inen Bound$rtes ina China: Yellow River Basin > MOoQ>a2 / Population Densities by County, 1989

M~ ..de Fe

2NS )800 u N ~~~neN ~~~~~. Xining ~~~~~~~~~~~~Zh engzhou io

Ka fng

Persons/Krm

f~ 400 -2600

Km~~~~~~~~~ County Boundaries El 600 -6800

200 400 ~~~Lakes i Catchment Boundary IE 80 PIntenatIonal Boundart in China: Yellow River Basin tMongoH4aJ) > ,v,Xf Existing & Proposed Dam/Hydropower Plants

ond . ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ intMoh. tvm

Wdw~~~o~~weo~~~~ The WOdd 8oe&~FC PW

- o+xsfThM3/.~

zb~~ww it

'*64~~~~-

MAajorPower- Plants 1. Tianqico 9. Liujiaxia 2. Wonjioznai 10. B.panxia 3. Qikou 11. Longyangxia Plants 4. Longmen 12. Laxiwa ~ Lakes 2 Existing Dams/Power Plants 5 xd 13 Lijiaxia Km A Planned Dams/Power Plants 6. Sanmenxia 14. Daxia 1= 7. Sanshungong 15. Qingtongxia M 2900 400 0 Catchment Boundary 8. Yanguoxia 16. Daliushu - P~tma#niDBoundatteg China: Yellow River Basin Mongoia_/>ina Sediment Erosion Modulus

t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~OMSeimnAe

N,og,a Pl. doFe Plai rony bg.'..d- h.-g

Ph. ,hd ek

p.,'4 ' 5 0 lo Silt (Ton/KM 2.Yr)

500 - 1000

1000 - 2000

4B 2000 - 5000 Km X 5000- 10000 a 10000 - 15000 G 0<> 200 400 Lakes z Catchment Boundary a 15000- 30000 \- Internatlonal Boundaries R Y Basin ) ProvinceBoundaies China: Yellow ARiverBasin Mongolia China Water Resource Regions

Inner Mongolta

NiBIJI Ptd Plain

Regions Tongguan [5 Region I We Plin5 Region 11 5 Region Ill-A 5] Region Ill-B E5 Region IV

.fr @ Region V-A

Km m Region Boundaries _ d Region VI

0200 40 >0m Lakes LIZ Catchmfnt Boundary S Region VIe-B t nnwtbrflnaBoundaries . _PmInter- naolcw .onda China: Yellow River Basin Mongolia Chn Sediment Concentration in River/Trbutary (Annual Average)

;p ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~iLo]tWXFt r:BE

Sediment (Kg/Ms)

K m Ahe widthof river represents on t3 5

> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~IJ 0 30 5

Km ______flow volume in BCM 150- 100 0! 200 400l LakesaL CatcmentBoundary 15) -2300 aE0 200 400 3 Lakes Catchment Boundary Eu)300 i L PmW_m Provinsendr CchiJlSb2Cina:Yellow River Basin > MongoiaJ' in Current and Planned Irrigated Areas

p lnnrMocpIa X

>~~~~~~~~~8° /0 o7>

- asi 1*,. (,PWin

, 1 Currently Irrigated Areas Km EB Planned Irrigated Areas 0200 400 : Lakes C| Catchment Boundary -) Inhtmatfonal Boundaries Yellow Ri'j Basin -Provhince Boundaries China:-Ylo ie ai Resources Mongolia Groundwater

t a ; ~~~~~~~~~Inner M

Th. .W&.

1I,* ~~~~~y~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 5 1

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ouu (100 M- 15 Yr

30 0 20- 25 m Th. i25Kmf m Mineralized GW )2g/1 @ 0 5s0 0 200 G0 Lakes f WudingheR. L Talyualn a

Q 0 l o Zibo

1\Yanhe,* / O0*4ot Liaocheng , a e R. 4 o 0 SYa $an -F - Fe ah J X {I t -| > J t~Pir 0 Anyang t 5J

> 7h v v Qlni >>: Del~~~nojingdiflood ,> Dngpinghu flood 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >~~~\ no t R|1r0 are 3, ;,2

0 0~~~~~~ Blei\ e 9<3

)2 ~~~~~ngdi ig,.Zhn azhet 0meiagd ng . Zhensgzhou g L-EGEND _Ton 9ua~ Sarnunila n anq- _ City yr basino0 border

Luohe rhe I.10 Corkpleted proposed > Y > tt 'S3 project\eproject

Oi^*S << *S*J > ^ ) * p Warpingarea (seebelow) REFERENCEDOCUMENT ONLY SO 25 0 25 50 75 1001251501&200 kmn NOT TO BE REPRODUCED PROPOSEDDAMS AND EXISTINGDAMS & SITES FOR WARPINIG