Proyecto1 4/12/08 10:14 Página 2 FRONTIERS OF KNOWLEDGE FRONTIERS OF KNOWLEDGE JANET ABBATE SERGIO ALONSO JESÚS AVILA ABHIJIT V. BANERJEE FRANCISCO CALVO SERRALLER PAUL E. CERUZZI CARLOS M. DUARTE JOAN ESTEBAN LUIS FERNÁNDEZ-GALIANO JOHN B. HEYWOOD GERALD HOLTON ALEXANDER KIND CAYETANO LÓPEZ JOAN MASSAGUÉ JOSÉ M. MATO ROBERT McGINN GINÉS MORATA LUIS DE PABLO NATHAN ROSENBERG VICENTE SALAS FUMÁS FRANCISCO SÁNCHEZ MARTÍNEZ JOSÉ MANUEL SÁNCHEZ RON ANGELIKA SCHNIEKE SANDIP TIWARI This book is conceived as BBVA’s contribution to an extraordinarily ambitious task: offering the lay reader a rigorous view of the state of the art, and new perspectives, in the most characteristic fi elds of knowledge of our time. Prestigious researchers from all over the world, working on the «frontiers of knowledge,» summarize the most essential aspects of what we know today, and what we aspire to know in the near future, in the fields of physics, biomedicine, information and telecommunications technologies, ecology and climate change, economics, industry and development, analyzing the role of science and the arts in our society and culture. FRANCISCO GONZÁLEZ Science, innovation and society: shifting the possibility frontier 11 BASIC SCIENCES 27 GERALD HOLTON What place for science in our culture at the «end of the modern era?» 31 FRANCISCO SÁNCHEZ MARTÍNEZ The structure and evolution of the Universe 51 JOSÉ MANUEL SÁNCHEZ RON The world after the revolution: 63 physics in the second half of the twentieth century SANDIP TIWARI & ROBERT McGINN The art of the invisible: achievements, social benefi ts, and challenges 93 of nanotechnology INFORMATION AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS 105 TECHNOLOGY PAUL E. CERUZZI The trajectory of digital computing 109 PAUL E. CERUZZI Computers and space exploration 129 JANET ABBATE The Internet: global evolution and challenges 143 BIOMEDICINE 157 GINÉS MORATA The century of the gene. Molecular biology and genetics 161 JESÚS AVILA & JOSÉ M. MATO Biomedicine at the turn of the century 171 ALEXANDER KIND & ANGELIKA SCHNIEKE Cloning mammals: more than just another sheep 185 JOAN MASSAGUÉ Towards an understanding of cancer 203 ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 221 CARLOS M. DUARTE The garden of Eden endangered: the ecology and biology of conservation 225 JOHN B. HEYWOOD Mobility in a climate constrained world 239 CAYETANO LÓPEZ Current challenges in energy 257 CLIMATE CHANGE 273 SERGIO ALONSO Climate change on the planet earth 277 ECONOMICS, FINANCE AND MANAGEMENT 297 VICENTE SALAS FUMÁS The economy of the fi rm 301 JOAN ESTEBAN Frontier research in economics 315 NATHAN ROSENBERG Radical innovations: an economist’s view 329 DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION 343 ABHIJIT V. BANERJEE Development and strategies for fi ghting poverty 347 ARTS 363 FRANCISCO CALVO SERRALLER The artistic discovery of the future 367 LUIS FERNÁNDEZ-GALIANO The architecture of the new century 375 LUIS DE PABLO Frontiers and knowledge in music? A few notes 391 BIOGRAPHIES 404 science, innovation and society: shifting the possibility frontier FRANCISCO GONZÁLEZ BBVA CHAIRMAN The book you hold before you, published by BBVA, of its economic production. In the last two decades, stands in tandem with the BBVA Foundation Frontiers the combined foreign investment of these companies of Knowledge Awards, whose first edition is about has exceeded the total amount of official development to be decided as these lines are being written. These aid. They can thus be considered the main instruments awards, with a monetary amount among the highest for the construction of a global economy and society, in the world, are to be granted annually to teams of facilitating the worldwide spread of technology, researchers and creators in eight categories—precisely values and more modern and efficient commercial and the eight fields covered in this publication. management practices. Moreover, large corporations BBVA earns no immediate return from this have an enormous social presence and impact through initiative to foster the generation and dissemination their employees, customers and suppliers, so can act of knowledge. Our group is not a part of the as powerful catalysts for innovation and the transition pharmaceuticals, information technology or to a sustainable world. telecommunications sector, or of any other industry Companies cannot be a part of the world’s that might obtain direct commercial benefits from the problems; they have to be a part of their solution, results of scientific research. Nevertheless, its purpose and a vital one at that. In the twenty-first connects with two key vectors of BBVA’s culture, century, any responsible company attuned to the strategy and activity: to work for a better future for legitimate demands of its stakeholders has the duty people; and to do so by means of innovation, anchored to work for the improvement of the societies where it in turn on the best available knowledge. We are does business. And it has two very important reasons convinced that, in this way, BBVA is fulfilling one of for doing so: conviction and interest. Conviction, the functions that companies in general, and leading because its actions must be guided by ethical multinationals in particular, are called on to perform considerations and the core values of corporate in the global society of the twenty-first century. culture. Interest, because, in an increasingly informed and demanding society, companies need greater The BBVA knowledge agenda: innovation legitimacy if they are to successfully carry forward and corporate responsibility a long-term project, and because a prosperous and There are currently over 70,000 multinational stable society is both a result and pre-condition corporations in the world and they represent 25% of corporate development. 12 FRONTIERS OF KNOWLEDGE If that is the case for all companies, it is even more a strategy based on three pillars: principles, so for banks, because the financial industry stands innovation, and people. at the heart of the economy and society. Its function This strategy, and the corporate culture is to help companies and individuals realize their from which it flows—and which it nourishes—is projects, by offering them basic payment, savings encapsulated in our vision statement, “BBVA, and investment services, as well as a growing range working towards a better future for people”. of other, increasingly specialized solutions. For this People in their multiple dimensions as customers, reason, we can see banking as a fundamental motor employees and shareholders, as well as citizens in for development. And for this reason too, it must serve the societies where we conduct our business. as a repository of trust for social agents in not one We believe that we are contributing to a better but two senses: it must work for the interests of its future when we apply firm ethical principles of stakeholders (in the strict meaning of the word “trust”); honesty and transparency, when we place people and it must also exhibit the prudence and professional at the center of our activity, and when we work for competence associated with the term “confidence”. the betterment of the societies where we operate, Ethics and competence are two essential attributes that sharing in their aspirations. And, finally, when we each institution, and the financial system in its entirety, foster innovation as a key enabler of more flexible, must zealously protect. In recent months, events have individualized customer solutions, affordably priced, revealed the grave effects on the global economy as a means to give more people access to financial and society—and on finance entities themselves—of a services, as a source of additional value for our breakdown of confidence in the financial sector. shareholders and as an outlet for the creative talent In keeping with its central position in the of our professional teams. economy and society, banking is fully exposed to This combination of innovation and corporate technological and social change. Our customers responsibility provides the framework for our change, in their needs, expectations and demands, commitment to promote and disseminate science as do the channels and procedures through which and learning. they choose to operate. Responding to these shifting Innovation is a mainstay of the BBVA strategy demand patterns requires a profound technological, and culture, as reflected in our current innovation organizational and cultural transformation that and transformation plan. This perspective sets us parallels the transformation being undergone by apart from more conventional competitors, while global society, in order to harness the immense leveraging our capacity to generate recurrent value potential held out by technological and scientific on a sustained basis. We are aware that science, advances. The goal of this transformation should be research and the creative climate they both draw to sustain economic growth, improve the wellbeing on and enrich are essential aspects of process and of society and restore the environmental balance that product innovation, and the search for new, more has been lost in the recent past. efficient solutions to the demands and challenges of The financial industry works with two main raw contemporary societies. materials: money and information. Money, at the Responsibility towards the societies in which we do beginning of the twenty-first century, has been largely business—currently over thirty countries and growing dematerialized. It has turned into book entries, that in various continents—is also an integral part of is, information that can be transmitted instantly and BBVA’s strategy and culture. at practically no cost. Technological advances have We believe our primary responsibility is to do our given banks exceptional opportunities to improve work well, and that striving day by day to improve the their services, and to take more and better products quality, reliability and price of the services we offer and services to an incomparably wider public, with a is the best way we have of contributing to economic maximum of convenience and at much lower prices. development and social stability.