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Isngi 2014 Presenters’ Papers ISNGI 2014 PRESENTERS’ PAPERS www.isngi.org UK & EUROPE 2014 USA 2015 AUSTRALIA 2013 CO-HOST PARTNERS International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure Conference Proceedings www.ucl.ac.uk/steapp/isngi/proceedings Editors Dr Tom Dolan and Professor Brian Collins 30 September — 1 October 2014 International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schloss Laxenburg, Vienna, Austria 1 All extended abstracts accepted for publication in the Proceedings of the International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure were peer reviewed at the time of submission for the conference. © Copyright in these papers rests with the individual authors Editors: Dr Tom Dolan and Professor Brian Collins Published online by: University College London (UCL), http://www.ucl.ac.uk/steapp/isngi/proceedings DOI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1469416/ 2 EDITORIAL International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure Conference Proceedings Future infrastructure in all countries needs to be fit for purpose in order to support societal development in a changing world. Present assumptions about how infrastructure systems respond to changing societal needs and factors such as extreme events, security of energy, water and food supply, impact on the economy and exploitation of innovative technology have been challenged and found wanting. The International Symposium for Next Generation Infrastructure (ISNGI) vision is to provide leadership and support for the development and growth of a coherent, world class, infrastructure research community, which engages academia, industry and citizens in a joint venture that drives innovation and value creation. In response to this vision and to the grand challenge ”Can we imagine resilient infrastructure systems that can meet the needs of twice today’s population with half today’s resources while providing better liveability for all?” ISNGI 2014 was designed to support the rapidly expanding international research community in seeking to understand the interactions between infrastructure, the population it serves, the environment in which it functions, technology and the economy. In total ISNGI 2014 brought together 40 international research contributions and 100 delegates, including a number of distinguished key note speakers, to create the opportunity for those involved in infrastructure research to meet their peers, engage in cutting edge discussion and ensure that their activities are informed by the best research and thinking in this vital field of endeavour. We are delighted to present this collection of peer reviewed extended abstracts in response to the ISNGI 2014 themes of: Resilience and Reliability of Infrastructures; Infrastructure Resilience and Performance; Infrastructure and the City; Infrastructure Financing and Economics; Infrastructure Interdependence; Infrastructure Provision and Social Needs; Infrastructure and Extreme Events; Multi-Level and Transnational Governance Issues. The contribution made by these proceedings is totally in accord with the ISNGI vision and moves the state of knowledge forward to a significant extent. Professor Brian Collins Dr Tom Dolan 3 With thanks to our dedicated team of reviewers: Professor Jim Hall, Director, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford Professor Margot Weijnen, Chair of Process and Energy Systems Engineering, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft Professor Fabian Wagner, Gerhard R. Andlinger Center Visiting Professor in Energy and the Environment, Princeton University Professor Pascal Perez, Research Director, SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong Professor Peter Campbell, Honorary Professor of Infrastructure Systems, SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong Professor Ettore Francesco Bompard, Institute for Energy and Transport JRC, European Commission Professor Martin de Jong, Associate Professor, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TU Delft Professor Geert Deconinck, ESAT - ELECTA, Electrical Energy and Computer Architectures, KU Leuven Professor Matthias Finger, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL) Luis Gomez Echeverri, Senior Research Scholar Transitions To New Technologies, IIASA Dr JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer, Acting Program Director Risk Policy and Vulnerability, IIASA Professor Paulien Herder, Scientific Director Next Generation Infrastructures, TU Delft Marcelo Masera, Head of the Energy Security Unit, Institute for Energy and Transport JRC, European Commission Professor Claude Menard, Professor of Economics, University of Paris (Pantheon-Sorbonne) Dr Christer Pursiainen Professor of Societal Safety and Environment, Department of Engineering and Safety, Arctic University of Norway (UiT) Dr Jennifer Schooling, Director of the Centre for Smart Infrastructure, University of Cambridge Pamela Sydelko, Director, System Sciences Centre, Argonne National Laboratory Professor Ernst ten Heuvelhof, Director of Education, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, TUDelft Professor Robert Mair, Head of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Cambridge Professor Micheal Batty, Bartlett Professor of Planning (Emeritus), UCL Dr Terry Surles, Program Lead for Technology Integration and Policy Analysis, Hawaii Natural Energy Institute 4 Contents Resilience and Reliability of Infrastructures Enhancing Infrastructure Resilience Under Conditions of Incomplete Knowledge of Interdependencies ...................11 Resilience of Hierarchical Critical Infrastructure Networks ........................................................................................17 Modelling Interdependent Cascading Failures in Real World Complex Networks .....................................................23 using a Functional Dependency Model Designing a Solid Waste Infrastructure Management Model for Integration into .......................................................29 a National Infrastructure System-of Systems Infrastructure and the City I-11: Sustainable Supercorridor ...............................................................................................................................37 Extended Definition of Capacity in Airport Systems ..................................................................................................43 Material Flow Analysis: Outcome Focus (MFA:OF) for Elucidating the Role ..............................................................49 of Infrastructure in the Development of a Liveable City Building Progressive Confidence: the Transition from Project to Operational Opening .............................................55 in the Case of a Major New International Airport Terminal Integrated Resource Planning for a Chinese Urban Development ............................................................................61 Portfolio Structuring Model for Urban Infrastructure Investments .............................................................................65 An Agent Based Model for the Simulation of Transport Demand and Land Use .......................................................69 Infrastructure Financing and Economics Municipal Energy Companies in the UK: Motivations and Barriers ...........................................................................77 Portfolio Infrastructure Investments: an Analysis of the European and UK Cases .....................................................83 Financial Transmission Rights (FTR) as a Congestion Management Scheme ...........................................................87 in Electricity Transmission: Strategic Behavior in a Coupled FTR — Electricity Market Model Real Options Theory and EU Member States Energy Investment Strategies ............................................................91 Transmission Capacity as a Common-Pool Resource: The Case of Gas Interconnector Capacity ............................95 5 Infrastructure Resilience and Performance Service Performance Indicators for Infrastructure Investment ................................................................................105 Visualisation Tools for Multi-Perspective, Cross-Sector, Long-Term Infrastructure Performance Evaluation ............111 Assessing Risks to Inform Resilience: a Criticality Assessment of the British Railway Network .............................119 Infrastructure Interdependence Towards a Common Language of Infrastructure Interdependency .........................................................................127 Adaptation and Resilience of Interdependent Infrastructure Systems: a Complex Systems Perspective ................133 Integrated Infrastructure Modelling — Managing Interdependencies with a Generic Approach ..............................139 A Systems-Based Approach to the Identification of User/Infrastructure Interdependencies ...................................143 as a Precursor to Identifying Opportunities to Improve Infrastructure Project Value/Cost Ratios The Role of Futureproofing in the Management of Infrastructural Assets ................................................................147 A Socio-technical Analysis of Interdependent Infrastructures among the Built Environment, Energy, .....................153 and Transportation Systems at the Navy Yard and the Philadelphia Metropolitan Region, US Carbon Capture Clustering: the Case for Coordinated Approaches to Address Freshwater Use Concerns ...........159 A New Model for Evaluating the Future Options of Integrating Ground Source Heat Pumps ..................................165 in Building Construction Towards a
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