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Current State of Nigeria Agriculture and Agribusiness Sector

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Current State of Nigeria Agriculture and Agribusiness Sector AfCFTA WORKSHOP Current State of Nigeria Agriculture and Agribusiness Sector September 2020 Prepared and Presented by Taiwo Oyaniran Associate Director, PwC Nigeria State of Agriculture in Nigeria Nigeria’s key agricultural statistics… ̴ 22% 36% N40bn The share of agricultural contribution The agricultural sector remains the largest Only about N40 billion was earmarked by to GDP as at Q1 2020 stood at employer in Nigeria, employing more than 36% the government for agricultural research and approximately 22%. of the labour force development (R&D) in 2019 >80% 0.27 hp/hectare 1.8% More than 80% of Nigeria’s farmers Nigeria’s tractor density is put at 0.27 hp/ Agriculture budget represents 1.8% (or N183 are smallholder farmers (SHFs). These hectare which is far below the FAO’s billion) of the total 2020 budget size. This numbers accounts for 90% of Nigeria’s recommended tractor density of 1.5 hp/ hectare. significantly falls short of the 10% specified agricultural produce in the Maputo Declaration. N689.7bn N3.35trn N22.8trn Nigeria’s agricultural trade deficit In four years (2016–2019), Nigeria’s Nigerians spent about N22.8 trillion on food widened by N689.7 billion in 2019 cumulative agricultural imports stood at N3.35 items in 2019, representing more than half compared to N549.3 billion in 2018. trillion, four times higher than the agricultural (56.7%) of the total household expenditure of export of N803 billion within the same period. N40.2 trillion 4 State of the Nigerian agricultural sector Agriculture is broadly divided into four sectors in Nigeria–crop production, fishing, livestock and forestry. Crop production remains the largest segment and it accounts for about 87.6% of the sector’s total output. This is followed by livestock, fishing and forestry at 8.1%, 3.2% and 1.1% respectively. Agriculture remains the largest sector in Nigeria contributing an average of 24% to the nation’s GDP over the past seven years (2013 – 2019). In addition, the sector employs more than 36% of the country’s labour force, a feat which ranks the sector as the largest employer of labour in the country. Size of the different segment of the Agriculture's contribution to GDP (%) agricultural sector Fishery, 3.2% Livestock , 8.1% Forestry, 1.1% 25.2 24.5 25.1 25.1 23.3 22.9 23.1 22.0 Crop production , 87.6% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020* Source: NBS, PwC analysis Source: NBS, PwC analysis 5 Nigeria’s agricultural trade deficit continues to widen amid government’s push for self-sufficiency in the sector… In four years (2016–2019), Nigeria’s cumulative agricultural imports between 2016 and 2019 stood at N3.35 trillion, four times higher than the agricultural • The share of agriculture in Nigeria’s total export earnings export of N803 billion within the same period. remains small compared to crude oil exports. For instance in 2019, agriculture accounted for less than 2% of total exports 1,200 Nigeria's agricultural trade (N' billions) relative to crude oil (76.5%). • Nigeria’s major agricultural imports include wheat, sugar, fish and milk, while the main agricultural exports include 1,000 960 sesame seeds, cashew nuts, cocoa beans, ginger, frozen 887 852 shrimp and cotton. • 800 Sesame, cashew nuts and cocoa account for more than half of the nation’s agricultural exports. While wheat dominates 656 agricultural imports. -N689.7bn 600 • Agricultural export declined by about 11% from N302.2 billion in 2018 to N269.8 billion in 2019. • Nigeria’s agricultural imports rose by 12.7% from N851.6 400 billion to N959.5 billion during the same period, the highest 302 270 value ever recorded in the country. 200 170 • Nigeria remains a net food importer — the agricultural trade deficit has widened with imports exceeding exports by 61 N689.7 billion in 2019 compared to N549.3 billion in 2018. 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 Export Import Source: NBS, PwC analysis 6 Challenges of the Nigerian agricultural sector… Lack of access to finance Although the Nigerian government has provided several Resource shortages facilities through the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) such as 01 Over the past years, Nigeria has dealt with very low yields per the Anchor Borrower’s Programme to help provide small- hectare due to shortages in the supply of inputs such as seedlings scale farmers with adequate financing, the farming industry and fertilisers as well as inadequate irrigation and harvesting still lacks adequate access to finance. systems, which hinders productivity and yield rates. 06 02 Insufficient supply to meet population growth and Violent conflict food demand Due to the desertification and water depletion in the With a population of roughly 200 million people, Nigeria’s northern part of Nigeria, nomadic herdsmen are now agricultural productivity is insufficient to meet the food shifting towards the south of the country in search of demanded of its growing population thus increasing the grazing fields and water for their animals. This has demand and supply gap in Nigeria. resulted in violent conflict with crop farmers in the south. Increased violence in the food producing states is causing 05 decline in Nigeria’s food production output. 03 Outdated system of agriculture Absence of value addition and supply-chain linkages 04 Outdated methods of agriculture such as the use of hoes and Nigeria focuses mostly on food production, thus neglecting the cutlasses reduce efficiency as these methods are costly and time processing and manufacturing segment of the value chain. The chain consuming. Nigeria’s failure to adopt advanced mechanised reaction that arises from shortages of resources, lack of financing for systems has reduced the quality of its agricultural products. small-scale farmers and inefficient transport systems, exacerbates the development of food production along the value and supply chain 7 AfCFTA and the promise of agricultural boom • Africa’s food import bill stood at about US$35 billion in 2016 and its projected to rise to US$110 billion by 2025. In addition, Africa’s agribusiness sector is projected to reach $1 trillion in 2025, driven by the continent’s rapidly growing middle class. • Weak inter-regional integrations and poor output growth has dampened the prospect of intra- Africa trade which stood at 16.6% in 2017 relative to peers such as Europe (68%) and Asia AfCFTA aims to foster (59%) agricultural transformation and advancement in Africa • Africa’s agricultural sector is bedeviled with weak value chain. For instance, out of the US$62 in order to promote food billion in agricultural products exported by Africa in 2017, only US$12 billion were classified security and competitiveness as processed goods. through the improvement of regional agricultural value • About 90% of Africa’s agricultural export to non-African market are dominated by primary or chains and investments in semi-processed products while about half of intraregional trade is associated with processed production and marketing products. With AfCFTA, these gains can be strengthen at a much higher pace. infrastructure. It is believed that the easy access to • Consequently, it is expected that the establishment of AfCFTA would help to support Africa’s regional importation of food agri-business, create new regional markets for farmers, strengthen the agro-value chains and products can help countries significantly reduce agricultural imports from outside the continent. achieve food security. 8 The government, in an attempt to enhance local trade and exports, has introduced some policies and programmes… ▪ The Government has • The Zero Reject The policy aims to improve placed trade barriers on ▪ NATIPP is a programme • The Presidential Initiative was access to international Economic select Agric. goods to jointly launched by the launched to enhance markets by: Diversification Initiative protect local producers African Export-Import the acceptability of ▪ Enhancing access to (PEDI) aims to enhance and stimulate growth of Bank, Nigerian Export- Nigerian products market information trade capacity in the industry Import Bank and the Agriculture by internationally through a National ▪ In addition, several Nigerian Export facilitating new • It is aimed at Agricultural economic incentives are Promotion Council investments in the improving Information System offered to Agric. ▪ The aim of NATIPP is to Agricultural and Agro- Agricultural exports allied industries, Investors in Nigeria ▪ Creating specialised facilitate the expansion through the institution reducing regulatory including income tax export market support of Nigeria’s trade and of global quality bottlenecks and relief, zero import duty teams to enhance export investment into Africa standards and product enabling access to credit on equipment, VAT capacity standardisation exemptions, etc Nigeria–Africa Trade Presidential Economic Agriculture Promotion and Investment Economic and Export Diversification Zero Reject Initiative Policy Promotion Promotion Incentives Initiative Programme 9 In addition, trade rules were put in place to protect local manufacturers and enhance export capacities Banned Imports Restricted Dollar Access Key Trade Rules Poultry, Pork, Beef, Poultry and eggs Rules of Origin Eggs Refined vegetable oil Palm kernel/palm oil NAFDAC or SON and fat products/vegetable oils product registration Spaghetti, sugar and Registration with MAN Meat and processed meat fruit juice and NACCIMA Sugar Cane Rice, Tomatoes NEPC Registration 10 Despite interventions from the government Agricultural trade remains constrained by poor infrastructure
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