Special report: What is the future of trucking?

Research by Automotive World Special report: What is the future of trucking?

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© 2019 All content copyright Automotive World Ltd. All rights Automotive reserved. World est. 1992 This publication - in whole or in part - may not be shared, copied, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or be Automotive World transmitted in any form by any means electronic, mechanical, 1-3 Washington Buildings photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior Stanwell Road, Penarth, permission of Automotive World Ltd. CF64 2AD, UK Disclaimer www.automotiveworld.com T: +44 (0) 2920 707 021 This report is the product of extensive primary and secondary [email protected] research. It is protected by copyright under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Registered number: 04242884 VAT number: GB 815 220 173 The authors of Automotive World Ltd research reports are drawn from a wide range of professional and academic disciplines. The facts within this report are believed to be CEO & Managing Director: correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Gareth Davies The information within this study has been reasonably verified to the author’s and publisher’s ability, but neither accept responsibility for loss arising from decisions based on this Editor-in-Chief : report. Martin Kahl This report contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Contributors : authors’ current views with respect to future events. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. If any of the Sam Abuelsamid assumptions underlying any of these statements prove Megan Lampinen incorrect, then actual results may be materially different from Jack Hunsley those expressed or implied by such statements. The authors do Xavier Boucherat not intend or assume any obligation to update any forward- looking statement, which speaks only as of the date on which it is made. Production: Anmol Mothy All the estimates are based on assumptions, the authors’ calculations and publicly available data. Automotive World Ltd is © Automotive World Ltd 2019 not liable for misrepresentation or misuse of such information or validity of publicly available information.

i Research by Automotive World Special report: What is the future of trucking?

Table of contents

Executive summary iii

Electrification and automation will transform the future 1 of trucking

Daimler Trucks: gunning for tech leadership but gated 5 by safety

Facing disruptive truck tech, early-adopter fleets stand 8 to benefit

Urban delivery relies on electrified, automated and 11 personalised experience

Indian truck fleets need flexibility and quick decision making 14

Truck hybridisation is an opportunity for suppliers 17

From mines to motorways: Volvo taps AI expert for 20 autonomous truck evolution

Research by Automotive World ii Special report: What is the future of trucking? Executive summary

• Trucking is changing—fast; advances in Easing out these traditional frictions will help propulsion technology, ever greater to cut down the huge inefficiencies that connectivity and new business models offer plague trucking, particularly in fragmented truck manufacturers and fleet buyers markets such as the US and India innovative ways of meeting increasingly stringent fuel economy and emissions • Even though fleet operators may have to regulations, as well as overcoming the juggle future of mobility development with challenges of operating in low and zero their core businesses, this should not deter emission zones and areas with noise them from experimenting. They enjoy restrictions resource bases and capital that innovative start-ups can only dream of, and stand to • Growing freight demand is putting the benefit through smart investment pressure on automakers and garages to ensure maximum uptime for customers. • Rapidly emerging markets face major Many players are exploring applications of disruption with the rise of e-commerce. In connected technology such as virtual India’s truck market, one of the fastest- technicians, analytics and remote updates growing in the world, traditional push-heavy supply chains are now considering ‘pull • The digital revolution, automated driving and strategies’, driven by real-time demand. trucking as a service are leading the truck Flexibility will be key, and connected services manufacturers to think like technology such as freight-matching will become essential companies. To successfully navigate the transition, they will need strong partners in • The first and last miles remain tricky diverse areas of expertise elements in trucking. But, as emissions regulations tighten, those in logistics are • Suppliers to the major truck manufacturers being forced to embrace automation and, in are putting electrification and automation at particular, electrification. Ensuring time is the heart of all efforts. As Eaton hopes to not wasted will require players to invest and demonstrate, even a transmission can be partner up where necessary essential for enabling the applications the trucking industry is looking for, including • Delivery may be a very human-centric precise, low-speed manoeuvres such as auto- concept today, but automating this process docking need not dilute the customer experience. As the delivery driver is faded out, automation • Automated driving will revolutionise freight and connectivity could be used to beautify movement. Driverless trucks operating 24 consumer experiences which are catered hours a day, seven days a week, mean that around specific individual preferences goods can be shipped across vast distances in record time. At the same time, by eliminating • With trucking so heavily focused on the human error, the number of road collisions bottom line, many in the truck industry and fatalities would plummet expect to see change much more quickly than in the light vehicle sector. Driver • Blockchain-backed trucking is on its way. The shortage, regulatory challenges and the need ultra-secure digital ‘ledger’ system cannot be for improved efficiency will see fleet retroactively modified, and as such will build managers opt for innovative solutions more trust among shippers, carriers and brokers. quickly than private car buyers iii Research by Automotive World Special report: What is the future of trucking?

Electrification and automation will transform the future of trucking

By the mid-2030s, tech changes could bring greater change to trucking than the light duty vehicle sector, writes Sam Abuelsamid

ver the past century, trucking has become an customers’ doorsteps. As we prepare to enter the Ointegral part of the global economy. next decade, the technology behind those trucks Everywhere you go, trucks of all sizes are is on the verge of a major upheaval with the transporting materials and products between growth of electrification and automation. sources, factories, warehouses, retailers and end customers. That trend has only accelerated in the Trucks run the gamut in size from small vans like past two decades with the seemingly inexorable the Ford Transit Connect and Fiat Doblo to long- growth of e-commerce bringing deliveries of haul tractor trailers that cross continents. They everything from furniture to ear buds directly to also come in a range of form factors like those aforementioned boxes on wheels to pickup trucks and cutaway chassis cabs. There are also specialised variants for applications like refuse pickup, utility work and other jobs.

The combination of Most of these have gone through various forms “electrification and of incremental change over the decades but remain conceptually similar to what we started automation is expected to with. That part is likely to stay fairly consistent because they are primarily designed for utility substantially transform all rather than aesthetics. aspects of the commercial What will probably change is the mechanisms by vehicle fleet and its which these machines move. Today’s trucks are almost exclusively powered by internal operations by the mid- combustion engines driving two or more wheels 2030s—to perhaps an through a transmission. They are fuelled predominantly by gasoline or diesel with the even greater extent than latter dominating in the larger vehicles and those that run long distances. Compressed natural gas light duty vehicles is also an increasingly popular option for many of the larger vehicles that run in geographically limited applications.

Research by Automotive World 1 Special report: What is the future of trucking?

Annual sales of commercial vehicles with L4+ automation

Source: Navigant Research

Moving toward the plug battery electric vehicles in the last decade, few moved beyond pilot programs with rarely more than a few hundred examples deployed and often However, as major urban areas around the world far fewer. continue to grapple with the challenges of air quality and climate change, there is increasing The batteries required to move big, heavy pressure on manufacturers to move away from vehicles were themselves bulky and expensive internal combustion. While a number of and offered limited range. The mass of batteries manufacturers tried to break into the market with also posed a problem by eating into the available payload capacity, thus reducing operational efficiency.

As battery costs have declined in recent years As major urban areas and energy density has crept up, the appeal of “around the world continue to electric trucks is increasing. Besides efficiency, one of the reasons that diesel has been grapple with the challenges appealing in large vehicles is the strong low-end torque. If anything, electric motors exceed the of air quality and climate torque characteristics of diesel and do it without change, there is increasing the noise and emissions issues inherent to pressure on manufacturers compression ignition engines. to move away from internal The number of companies offering electrified trucking options is growing rapidly, especially combustion among larger vehicles. While Tesla enjoyed enormous media coverage for the late-2017 introduction of its Semi, to date it’s not clear that

2 Research by Automotive World Special report: What is the future of trucking?

Annual sales of electric medium and heavy duty vehicles by scenario 2018-2030

Source: Navigant Research anything more than the original two examples ranging up to Class 8 tractor trailers. Diesel really exist. Those trucks do pop up on the road engine manufacturer Cummins has also from time to time doing tests or demonstrations, developed an electric powertrain. Navigant but it seems unlikely they will meet their 2020 Research projects that by 2030, annual sales of production timeline. electric medium and heavy-duty trucks and buses will grow by over 9% annually to about 514,000. While Tesla gets the news, traditional players in the truck market have not been sitting on their While progress has been made, range and hands. Daimler Trucks, Volvo Group, Navistar charging time still pose challenges for battery and Volkswagen’s Traton SE have all announced powered trucks. At the Tesla Semi and in some cases even delivered electric trucks announcement, Chief Executive Elon Musk promised a Megacharger system that would provide an 80% charge in 30 minutes. For the 1 MWh battery that is estimated to be needed to achieve 500-mile range, that would work out Aside from fuel, one of the to 1.6 MW charging rate, something no one has “biggest costs in the trucking yet managed. business is drivers— Instead, battery electric vehicles seem more likely to be utilised for more local applications for Class another area that faces 4-8 trucks (14,000 lbs and up) where the trucks substantial change in the return to base on a daily basis. These vehicles typically operate less than 200 miles per day and coming decade could get by with considerably smaller batteries and lower charging rates. Depots could be equipped with both conductive and wireless charging systems.

Research by Automotive World 3 Special report: What is the future of trucking?

Wireless charging holds great potential for As the world’s largest market for cars and trucks, trucking applications with manufacturers now China obviously has a huge influence on demonstrating up to 200 kW charge rates. This technology adoption, and it has recently made a could be especially useful for applications such as major pivot from batteries to fuel cells. Subsidies transit buses that run on the same routes every for battery electric vehicles have been cut in day, enabling charging pads to be deployed at favour of fuel cells and a broad network of busy stops where the bus is stationary for several fuelling infrastructure is being built. minutes at a time. This would allow the use of smaller, lighter, less costly batteries that are charged repeatedly throughout the day. More than propulsion

Aside from fuel, one of the biggest costs in the trucking business is drivers—another area that faces substantial change in the coming decade. With a projected shortage of more than 200,000 drivers over the coming decade and restrictions Batteries are not the only on the number of daily driving hours, trucking is “ a major focus of automated driving developers. route to electrification. Fuel Most of the major truck makers are actively cells also hold tremendous involved in developing automation.

promise Daimler Trucks recently added Torc Robotics to its portfolio while Volvo Group is working with chipmaker Nvidia. Alphabet unit Waymo—widely considered to be the leader in automated driving Batteries are not the only route to electrification. systems—is working on heavy trucks as well as Fuel cells also hold tremendous promise. Toyota light duty vehicles for ride hailing. Start-up has been testing a fuel cell powered Class 8 TuSimple, which recently secured investment tractor at the port of Long Beach since 2017. In from UPS, ran a pilot test for the US Postal Service April of this year, Toyota and Kenworth and is currently delivering cargo for UPS between announced the development of a second- Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona. generation tractor with ten units to be deployed from the port of Los Angeles. These local Light duty trucks are also expected to get a major operation trucks reduce emissions from ports infusion of automation as well as blending with which are among the worst polluters in the small robots and drones to aid in last mile and region thanks to the container ships berthed last 100 ft deliveries. Amazon is expected to be a there. Since they return to base daily, fuelling major player in this space thanks to its infrastructure needs are more limited than they investments in companies like Aurora Innovation are for general purpose consumer vehicles. and Rivian. Navigant Research forecasts that sales of commercial vehicles with highly automated However, potential applications extend beyond driving capability could grow at 78% CAGR to local operations. Nikola Motors is developing more than 1.9 million globally by 2035. long-haul trucks powered by hydrogen fuel cells in partnership with Bosch. Nikola is also The combination of electrification and partnering with Norway’s NEL ASA to build out a automation is expected to substantially transform network of hydrogen fuelling stations along all aspects of the commercial vehicle fleet and its major trucking routes and near the facilities of operations by the mid-2030s—to perhaps an even major customers. greater extent than light duty vehicles.

About the author: Sam Abuelsamid is Principal Analyst at Navigant Research

4 Research by Automotive World Special report: What is the future of trucking?

Daimler Trucks: gunning for tech leadership but gated by safety

Daimler Trucks speaks to Megan Lampinen about how it sees the trucking industry evolving in the coming years in light of connected and autonomous technology

s road transport evolves, so too must truck Amanufacturers. The demands of their customers are rapidly changing, influenced by the stunning growth in road freight movement as well as the rise of digital technology and Vehicle connectivity is a tighter emissions regulations. Predicting the “ great benefit to our impact of these forces on truck design and functionality is the challenge now facing today's products today to support manufacturers. At Daimler Trucks North America (DTNA), teams of engineers and safety, efficiency and designers are preparing for both the short- and uptime long-term demands of fleets. Uptime and connectivity experience to keep customers’ trucks and their The US has experienced a tremendous boom in freight moving." freight demand—the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics shows a 56% rise in As part of this wider aim, the company has freight tonnage over the past decade. The value been working to narrow the turnaround time of goods carried by trucks is also growing and at its service centres to 24 hours. The effort should nearly double over the next two and a was led by DTNA’s Elite Support network, half decades. "That demand, in turn, which includes more than 280 certified necessitates that our team provide maximum dealers, but the target applies to the whole uptime to our customers," a DTNA spokesman dealer network. It is made possible by greater told Automotive World . "That uptime is enabled use of digital tools and communications. For by the utmost in customer experience. It means example, the web-based DTNA Service Tracker not only delivering trucks equipped with the allows customers to monitor the status of their latest technologies focused on efficiency, safety vehicle service or repair in real time, receive and connectivity, but also providing our notifications about the repair status and customers with an industry-leading post-sale approve estimates.

Research by Automotive World 5 Special report: What is the future of trucking?

“DTNA is jockeying for a leadership position in the emerging ecosystem of automation, which it believes will not only make the job easier for truck drivers but also go far in reducing the number of truck crashes on the road every year

Connected technology, in general, is proving a Jason Krajewski, Director of Connectivity for game-changer in the truck industry and will DTNA. Fleet management services specialist only grow in importance moving forward. Zonar was the first telematics service provider “Vehicle connectivity is a great benefit to our integrated onto the Detroit Connect platform. products today to support safety, efficiency and uptime," the spokesman observed. The From automated company offers a suite of connected vehicle services under the Detroit Connect platform, functionality... including virtual technician, analytics and remote updates. In March 2019, Daimler Notably, Detroit Connect can help pave the way opened it up to third-party telematics service for automated and eventually autonomous providers. According to the company, this is capabilities, and DTNA sees the platform as an designed to give customers greater flexibility to enabler for Level 2 technologies. In early 2019, work with the partner of their choice and avoid DTNA introduced what it claims was the first the need to install additional hardware. SAE Level 2 automated truck in series "Integrating the services of third-party production in North America with the latest providers onto our Detroit Connect platform... updates to the new Freightliner Cascadia provides us with the ability to expand our model. In this case, Level 2 automation means capabilities and push the bounds of the that the truck can steer, accelerate and brake connected vehicle experience," commented by itself in certain conditions.

DTNA is jockeying for a leadership position in the emerging ecosystem of automation, which it believes will not only make the job easier for truck drivers but also go far in reducing the In addition to the safety number of truck crashes on the road every “ year. Developments have been gaining pace, benefits Level 4 can and are already well under way. “Benefits from provide, it will also free the automated technologies in heavy-duty trucks will be realised in as little as a few months’ driver to focus on some time," promised Suman Narayanan, Director of tasks while leaving Engineering, Daimler Trucks Autonomous Technology Group. "Our Detroit Assurance 5.0 automation to take care of will soon become standard equipment on every Freightliner Cascadia we build." Detroit others Assurance is the name Daimler has given to its new safety system, which is classified as an SAE Level 2 technology.

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“The Freightliner Inspiration marked the first autonomous commercial vehicle to operate legally on public roads in the US

As Narayanan told Automotive World , the leaving automation to take care of others." choice to launch on the Cascadia was DTNA offered a concrete vision for the future of obvious: "The Cascadia is the most popular trucking in the form of its Freightliner Inspiration and highest-selling Class 8 tractor on the Truck, which made its debut four years ago at an road." Customers can add Active Lane Assist, event at the Hoover Dam. It came one year after Lane Keep Assist, Side Guard Assist, Active the unveiling of the Mercedes-Benz Future Truck Brake Assist and Adaptive Cruise Control. The 2025, but had the edge over its European sister in system draws on forward-looking radar to one important way: Licensed by the Nevada maintain a specific following distance from a Department of Motor Vehicles in 2015, the vehicle ahead. The active-braking component Freightliner Inspiration marked the first can slow the truck if it detects an imminent autonomous commercial vehicle to operate collision, mitigating the potential impact. legally on public roads in the US. "Numerous studies make clear the safety benefits of these systems for passenger cars Based on the Cascadia, engineers added and their drivers, and the benefits for Class 8 Highway Pilot technology, which links together trucks and their drivers will be similar," camera and radar technology with systems asserted Narayanan. "The introduction of providing lane keeping assistance, electronic these advanced safety systems provides a stability control, collision avoidance, speed benefit for the industry, for drivers and for control, braking and steering. When operating society as a whole." in autonomous mode, the radiator grille changes colour from white to blue. This is the same coloured-light principle that engineers ... to autonomous driving used with the autonomous research vehicles, the Mercedes-Benz F 015. Level 2 systems are the building blocks towards greater autonomous capabilities, and For DTNA, and for Freightliner in particular, DTNA has its eye on these at well. At CES developing a truck that can operate in 2019, the automaker announced it was autonomous mode marked a significant allocating more than US$500m to support its engineering achievement. But it also global push to put highly automated trucks, demonstrated the company's intention to which it considers to be SAE Level 4, on the lead the trucking industry in terms of road within a decade. It is also creating about connectivity, efficiency and safety. That last 200 additional jobs in this area, most of which aspect is particularly important in light of will be located at the new Daimler Trucks unproven autonomous technology, which Automated Truck Research & Development still has some industry watchers and players Center at DTNA headquarters in Portland, concerned. "Safety is our number one priority Oregon. "Level 4 technologies will carry a and the goal of Daimler Trucks is to similar value proposition to what Level 2 significantly reduce accidents," the company offers," said Narayanan. "In addition to the emphasised. Whatever else the future brings, safety benefits Level 4 can provide, it will also for DTNA and its customers it will be a safer free the driver to focus on some tasks while one on the road.

Research by Automotive World 7 Special report: What is the future of trucking? Facing disruptive truck tech, early-adopter fleets stand to benefit

As logistics firms electrify and automate their fleets, there is no time to relax. To remain competitive, fleets need to get their hands dirty. By Jack Hunsley

ommercial vehicles have always been Cabout making money as quickly and efficiently as possible. For fleet operators, this has traditionally required in-depth experience of the space, and partnering with the right We get to focus on people. However, this could change with “ automation and electrification. After decades autonomy fully, while they of dominance with pen and paper, the new computer-driven future is allowing new have to juggle it with the players to enter the fleet business. thousand other things they For the existing giants in the space, this is are doing proving challenging. Just as how major automakers need to juggle autonomous and electric development alongside their core business, the major fleet operators must do the Clean Van Commitment, the companies the same. involved are looking to make a dent in the four million diesel vans currently in operation in Some movement is already under way. UPS the country. announced it had purchased a minority stake in autonomous trucking company TuSimple in August 2019. Its Chief Strategy and Incumbent disadvantage Transformation Officer, Scott Price, said at the time that, “UPS is committed to “They have some major advantages and major developing and deploying technologies that disadvantages,” said Adriel Lubarsky, Director enable (UPS) to operate (its) global logistics of Business Development at Udelv, an network more efficiently.” autonomous delivery company founded in 2016. “One of the disadvantages is that we get In the UK, 16 of the largest van fleet operators to focus on autonomy fully, while they have to including Tesco, Siemens and Network Rail juggle it with the thousand other things they announced their intention in September 2018 are doing.” As he continued, however, there is to fully transition to electric fleets. By signing scope to turn this into meaningful growth.

8 Research by Automotive World Special report: What is the future of trucking?

Companies that try to time it perfectly are going to be behind “those that recognise that there is absolutely no doubt that this is the future

“The advantage is that automation specifically why the delivery side of things could not be as will allow them to carry out their core business automated as its checkout kiosks,” said needs better,” Lubarsky detailed. “Being Lubarsky. “Walmart has the freedom to really incumbents, they cannot structure their entire focus on its core business, which is creating an business around this revolution in logistics, but exceptional retail experience.” they have the advantage of knowing exactly where the best place is to start.” Two to tango For example, Walmart—which has more than 5,000 stores in North America alone—has Adopting and integrating automation and immediate access to a test base that new mobility electrification, however, is far easier said companies could only dream of. Not only this, than done. Here, the increasingly common but its knowledge of how the logistics sector, and solution is for these existing giants to partner in particular its vehicles, work day-to-day offers with start-ups. valuable potential data points into what could eventually be automated or electrified. This In the case of Walmart, for example, Udelv could make it simpler to design elements such as has been the partner of choice. The AV charging infrastructure layouts. specialist also counts Texas grocer H-E-B, Baidu and Microsoft among its list of “Walmart is not a delivery company. Walmart collaborators. is a retail company and it needs delivery to improve its overall output. There is no reason As mentioned, UPS is working with TuSimple in automating long haul trucking. In 2018, the company also cooperated with electric vehicle (EV) producer Xos by testing electric vans in Los Angeles. Carlton Rose, President, Global Fleet Maintenance and Engineering at Being incumbents, they UPS, spoke at the time of the company’s wish to “support the research needed to make “cannot structure their entire advances and the companies developing business around this those innovative products.” revolution in logistics, but FedEx has also been active here. In January 2019, in partnership with Ryder System, it they have the advantage of completed the largest electric commercial vehicle lease-purchase deal in history knowing exactly where the involving 1,000 Chanje vans. It has also best place to start is worked with Peloton in the past in developing platooning and semi-autonomous technologies for highways.

Research by Automotive World 9 Special report: What is the future of trucking?

“I cannot think of anybody in a better position than the logistics giants to really take advantage of these things because they know the routes it will work on the best, and they have the resources to experiment with

Potential upheaval The need to remain proactive is already clear. Both FedEx and Amazon have made investments in last mile delivery robots. The The potential for change is not solely limited to news ties in with FedEx’s decision in August the technologies themselves, however. The 2019 to end its current contract with the e- success of players such as Udelv have enjoyed commerce giant to supply ground delivery by leveraging new profitable niches in today’s services. Two months earlier, it also let its world, show there is potential for new players Express air agreement with Amazon lapse. to rub shoulders with current leading outfits. After years of cooperation, the old fort is becoming wary of new tech-savvy One such example is OnTrac, which is currently competitors. focusing on the American West Coast. In June 2019, it announced a partnership with AV start- Lubarsky believes the transformation will be up Boxbot to trial automated last-mile delivery such that in 20 years’ time, a company like vans. The pair are currently looking eastward FedEx will look fundamentally different. “It is into North Carolina. “For players like FedEx not about predicting the future, it is about and UPS, there is an enormous disadvantage in knowing that the future coming and the sense that they have a system built around continuing to try to put in resources to bring the human driver and they need to figure out that date closer and closer. The best way to how to upend that, otherwise they’ll fall behind predict the future is to create it.” to players that do,” said Lubarsky. On paper, it is certainly an intimidating time No time to dawdle for these players. But, if fleet players can utilise their assets effectively and recognise What is increasingly clear, therefore, is that where help is needed, there appears to be little there is no time to relax for any player looking reason that they cannot survive the trials and to compete in the logistics industry of tribulations to come over the next decade. tomorrow. E-mobility and automation may still only be in their very early years, but major “I cannot think of anybody in a better position investments are already being made by those than the logistics giants to really take advantage looking to upend the hierarchy. of these things, because they know the routes it will work on the best, and they have the “The revolution that is happening in logistics resources to experiment with,” said Lubarsky. over the next 15 years—electrification, “They can set up ten pilots in ten locations with automation, what that means for costs, how ten use cases immediately, assess them for a businesses run, the supply chain—is on that year, spend an amount equivalent to one day of same level of magnitude as the growth of the their executive team's salary, and learn more internet,” explained Lubarsky. than anyone else in the world.”

10 Research by Automotive World Special report: What is the future of trucking?

Urban delivery relies on electrified, automated and personalised experience

Automated e-mobility is a great step for the first and last mile, but to enable profitable uptake, players need to create a coherent delivery experience. By Jack Hunsley

he first and last mile of delivery saw little environments there is a growing belief that this Tinnovation across the first decades of transition is not a case of if, but when. automobile-driven logistics. Outside of more fuel-efficient and compact vehicles, there was “Everyone we speak to says this is inevitable, it relatively little that could be done to improve is just a question of timing,” said Adriel this section of the logistics chain. However, just Lubarsky, Director of Business Development at as automation and e-mobility could autonomous delivery company Udelv. “We love fundamentally change mobility as a whole, in the fact that there are many people doing it. If this specific space there is huge promise. we were the only ones doing it, we’d be doing something very wrong.” As more cities look to limit the use of fossil fuel internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, Udelv is well versed in this space now. As urban delivery is beginning to embrace this Lubarsky detailed, having completed its first new world. Daimler, for instance, confirmed in autonomous delivery at the end of January August 2019 that the successor to its Citan city 2018, Udelv has made automated deliveries delivery van will be electric. Other players such every day since. “I do not think there is any as StreetScooter and Chanje are also making other on-road autonomous vehicle (AV) grounds, with the former securing a deal with company that can claim anything like that,” he DHL and the latter sealing a 1,000 unit electric added. van deal with FedEx in November 2018, much to the frustration of some of the world’s established automakers. Clear gains

Automation also holds much promise. There are clear gains to electrified and Continental is just one of many players to have automated first and last mile logistics. Through designed an autonomous delivery shuttle. The the electrification lens, not only are electric likes of EasyMile and BoxBot are also carving vehicles (EVs) theoretically more reliable than out a space in this niche. As the industry their ICE counterparts, they will also allow continues to struggle with the tech for players to skirt existing and imminent passenger vehicles, in low-speed urban emissions zone regulations.

Research by Automotive World 11 Special report: What is the future of trucking?

“The possible ban of diesel plays an important role, so more and more customers are thinking about alternatives like e-vehicles

“The possible ban of diesel plays an important be combined with automation to create a role, so more and more customers are thinking digitally-enabled supply chain. about alternatives like e-vehicles,” said Fabian Schmitt, Chief Technical Officer at “Right now, the entire supply chain industry is StreetScooter. “Our postal customers expect a handcuffed by drivers and not in an irrational reliable and eco-friendly delivery. That’s where way,” explained Lubarsky. “Sometimes drivers the StreetScooter comes into play. Our third- come in late because there was traffic. party customers also expect to have an eco- Sometimes they have to leave work early friendly e-vehicle for inner-city deliveries and a because their child was hurt at school. total cost of ownership (TCO) that is at least Sometimes they crash because they’re driving comparable to combustion engines.” hundreds of miles every day. If automation can get rid of those issues and standardise this There are also practical benefits. Given the process, that creates an entire revolution in choice between a noisy, dirty ICE van or a quiet, what it means to move a product end-to-end.” clean e-van it would be quite a challenge to find any driver who would turn down the latter. In Innovation is already under way here. FedEx terms of automation, the majority of the benefits and UPS, for instance, have both announced in come in cost savings and efficiency. 2019 that they will offer Sunday delivery for the first time for its US customers. New players “About half the cost of last mile delivery is in the such as US-based goPuff are also now offering driver,” explained Lubarsky. “If we can cut the 24/7 delivery options. While these orders are cost in half, that saving is passed on to handled by humans today, future automation consumers and also businesses, which most of could help expand these new operations. the time are losing money on delivery. That is not sustainable.” “If you do not need the people for those Sunday or overnight shifts, what becomes possible?” On the efficiency side, consumers are said Lubarsky. “If you have a fully automated beginning to expect shorter delivery times and warehouse, AV delivery vehicles and maybe a rethink is needed as to how logistics chains with one-tenth of the employees, you can work are designed. “Consumers are becoming more at three times the efficiency because everything demanding with delivery times and returns, is faster. There’s huge potential for the future and these are the areas we can help customers that needs to be built out over time.” the most,” said Mario Harik, Chief Information Officer at XPO Logistics. “The key is to strategically place goods in warehouses near Partnership the end consumers. Our customers can capitalise on the need for increasingly faster Maximising this potential is easier said than delivery by using technology to forecast where done, however. Just as how automakers must goods need to be even before the order is juggle all elements of future mobility placed." These connectivity insights could then development along with their core business,

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You can have all the autonomous delivery vehicles you want but “if the experience of putting goods in and taking goods out of an AV is not exceptional it will never work

the leading giants in the logistics space are also Companies, therefore, need to consider how to being asked to multitask. beautify the autonomous delivery experience. With the additional costs of a human driver What is becoming increasingly common are factored in, anything that players can do to partnerships. UPS, for example, has partnered convince consumers to sway towards with AV truck company TuSimple. Having autonomy instead could prove highly profitable revealed the conclusion of a secret successful down the line. pilot that operated in early 2019, UPS announced in August that it had bought a “Imagine this,” detailed Lubarsky, “you walk minority stake in the start-up. up to the car, get your items and a screen recognises who you are. If it’s your birthday, it FedEx announced in February 2019 that it was brings you a gift. If it knows you have shared working with Walmart, Pizza Hut and Deka to access with your 14-year-old child and knows integrate last-mile delivery robots. The company they play soccer, the screen shows the latest claimed at the time that the service could roll out Premier League news. You can really customise to the 1,900 cities across the world where its in a way that a driver showing up today with a SameDay delivery service operates. bunch of paper bags cannot offer.”

Autonomy, of course, is still in its early days. New delivery experience While the slower speeds and urban delivery routes are maybe more suited to the Perhaps an unintended side effect of automation technology than long haul trucking, for is the need to rethink how the physical delivery example, more work is still needed. In the experience works. Today, ordering groceries electrification space, however, the time to from a store, for example, requires considerable switch is rapidly approaching; some may even human interaction once the order reaches a argue it has already come and next steps are customer. The delivery driver may be required now needed. to inform the customer of any errors or out of stock items in their order. They may also help In the case of StreetScooter, that includes bring the goods inside, especially if the customer investment in hydrogen. As announced in May is elderly or physically unable to. Once the 2019, it is working on an EV with an added human driver is taken out of this loop, these fuel cell. DHL Express has ordered 100 H2 experiences need to be catered for digitally. Panel Vans that are expected to begin delivery in late 2020. “You can have all the autonomous delivery vehicles you want, but if the experience of “The difference with the H2 Panel Van is that it putting goods in and taking goods out of an AV will have a fuel cell as a range extender,” is not exceptional it will never work,” said explained Schmitt. “This will be interesting for Lubarsky. “If it is a pain to get your groceries customers who need a range of 200 kilometres from a self-driving car then people will (124 miles) and more, but for customers who probably pay a little extra for a human driver, only need a range of less than 200 kilometres, and I think that option will always exist.” normal EVs are the better alternatives.”

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Indian truck fleets need flexibility and quick decision making

New generation connectivity in logistics continues to emerge at pace, in markets around the globe. What challenges does India’s trucking sector face? By Xavier Boucherat

ruck sales in India were up around 20% Tyear-on-year for 2018, reaching nearly a million units. The country’s trucking segment is now maturing on several fronts: for example, the upcoming leap from Bharat In a way, logistics and Stage IV to VI in 2020 will phase out heavy- “ polluting vehicles still working in the fulfilment have become a US$180bn industry, and could push new major differentiator than just powertrain technologies. However, perhaps of greater interest to players is the improved a mere cost centre. The connectivity available which promises greater dynamism in these modern efficiency, optimised utilisation and more. Despite a recent slowdown, India remains one supply chains requires of the world’s fastest-growing major economies, with Moody’s predicting GDP faster decision making, and growth of 6.2% for 2019. This is great news for new techniques such as road freight transport, but continued growth only makes freight marketplaces and related machine learning and AI are services more important. going to play a big role One such company offering services is Locus, a Bengaluru-based tech developer which was born of the RideSafe app, a route-deviation detection application initially developed for developers now is not to show simply where a safety. When founders Nishith Rastogi and truck is, but where it should be. Geet Garg discovered delivery fleets were using the app for other purposes, they formed Krishna Khandelwal is Chief Business Officer the company to begin offering automation and at Locus. As he affirms, these are busy times optimisation services, from routing, to for the Indian economy, and logistics is at the tracking, to shipment sorting. The mission for very heart of it. At the same time, technology

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“Geographical and demographic challenges make day-to-day operational planning and decision making decentralised, and heavily dominated by local resources, owing to their tribal knowledge about the market

is transforming the way things are done, The potential benefits of services from Locus particularly with the rise of e-commerce. become clear in this context. The company “India is a huge consumption economy,” he aims to provide a full-stack service to its says, with most locally-manufactured goods customers, and moving forward wants to finding their way to end-consumers via expand offerings to reflect shifting trends in the surface transportation, particularly road- industry. One such trend it is counting on is the based. “The Indian logistics market is emergence of blockchain-backed contracts. undergoing massive disruption, and one of the biggest reasons for this is the emergence Beyond route optimisation and real-time tracking, of new, alternative channels for end- the other connected trend is freight-matching. consumption, e-commerce being the biggest Start-ups and tech-giants alike have emerged in contributor to this digital transformation.” this burgeoning space, such as Uber Freight, but one India-based company is Lobb, which operates What this means, he explains, is that in four of the country’s major cities. traditionally push-heavy supply chains—in which manufacturers use forecasts and Co-founder Venu Kondur has previously said projections to predict demand for goods—are the relatively high cost of shipping in India now considering more ‘pull strategies’, driven could be reduced through increased utilisation by real-time demand from customers, enabled of trucks. This it attempts with a freight by deeper connectivity and contact with marketplace for its 2,000 vehicles and 15,000 customers. The consequences for logistics truckers. The company claims shippers can find firms are clear: flexibility, speed and trucks in ten to 15 minutes through the app, knowledge become more important than ever. where normally they might wait two to three hours. The app is aimed in particular at owner- “What is happening is forcing logistics to operators and small fleets of fewer than three become more dynamic, rather than static in vehicles, which make up the big majority of the nature,” says Khandelwal. “In a way, logistics Indian trucking sector. Among other things, the and fulfilment have become a major app allows for easy and quick payment for jobs. differentiator than just a mere cost centre. The dynamism in these modern supply chains requires faster decision making, and new The Indian context techniques such as machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) are going to play a Such changes in logistics that Khandelwal big role helping large enterprises and logistics describes may be happening in markets all companies to improve operational decision over the world, but what are some of the making.” challenges unique to India?

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“The app is aimed in particular at owner-operators and small fleets of less a few vehicles, which make up the big majority of the Indian trucking sector. Among other things, the app allows for easy and quick payment for jobs

“Most of the logistics infrastructure is highly planning their operations with customer fragmented,” says Khandelwal, “including the satisfaction at the core. It also gives them ownership of vehicles, warehouses and more control over the daily transportation more.” In addition, he adds, further needs of their customers.” fragmentation occurs on the ground: “Geographical and demographic challenges make day-to-day operational planning and decision making decentralised, and heavily dominated by local resources, owing to their local knowledge of the market.” This, he explains, leads to a lack of transparency, Despite a recent slowdown, consistency and efficiency in the operational “ process. India remains one of the world’s fastest-growing Solving problems like these, he says, will mean giving tools to various stakeholders major economies, with which will allow for the automation of day-to- day operational decisions. This will minimise Moody’s predicting GDP geographic and demographic constraints, and growth of 6.2% for 2019 AI will be at the core of this. This presents one of the bigger challenges for groups like Locus, Lobb and others. “100% of our tech is built in- house from the ground up, challenging the pre-defined biases in the sector,” says For example, he says, fleet owners must now Khandelwal. “AI will take centre stage with bring more transparency and visibility to their much more decision making passed on from operations when fulfilling consignments for human beings to machines, reducing customers. Customers must be able to check mistakes.” on the status and location of an order at any time and, if necessary, amend timings and Locus also places importance on helping delivery methods. This progress is indicative Indian truckers to modernise not just in of change: the last four years, concludes terms of technology, but in terms of service. Khandelwal, have seen Indian transporters “With our advisory and consulting solutions, become more and more open to new we try to help fleet owners and transporters connected solutions. In that respect, the plan operations better and optimise their Indian market is beginning to better resemble business offerings with a more customer- the European and North American markets, centric approach,” he says. “Some where there is already a high propensity to transporters have now taken ownership of leverage new technology for efficiency gains.

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Truck hybridisation is an opportunity for suppliers

Long-haul electric trucking remains as distant a pipe-dream as ever, but for suppliers there is still much work to be done to hybridise models. By Xavier Boucherat

hat opportunities do suppliers to major challenges for suppliers, and these are being Wtruck manufacturers have as the industry met enthusiastically. evolves? For Eaton, one of the primary growth areas is electrification, says Mihai Dorobantu, 48V Director of Technology Planning and Government Affairs. Indeed, it has a been a Today, one focus for Eaton is transmissions for long-term concern of the company’s, which electric CVs. 48V technology, says Dorobantu, is originally debuted a hybrid commercial vehicle opening up new roles for CV transmissions. An (CV) concept for FedEx in 2004, and would important consideration, however, is where the form a business centring CV electrification in 48V source is centred. If, as Dorobantu explains, 2007. Since then, says Dorobantu, the a truck maker uses a belt-driven alternator like company has enabled around two billion miles is done in the passenger car world, there is a of electrified commercial vehicle driving, limit to how much stress can be put on the belt, through hybrids and other powertrain types, and the engine has to be running for it to work, predominantly in China. even if a vehicle is coasting.

What has changed since 2007? The impending “A good alternative is to centre the source arrival of more stringent greenhouse gas around the transmission,” he says, “as it is the (GHG) regulations for markets worldwide only part of the vehicle which can really see comes at a time when diesel is likely to the engine and the wheels at the same time, continue dominating the sector. The industry meaning it can be driven off either. Shifting is still many years out from replacing diesel can also be improved, which is important as engines with batteries, says Dorobantu. Brett truck-makers downsize engines: smaller Merrit, Vice President, On Highway, Engine engines mean an increase in shifting Business at Cummins, agrees: “Cummins frequency. Faster, more precise shifts become believes diesel will be a primary power source a GHG-reduction enabler.” in many commercial markets for years to come,” he says. “The future of diesel is bright, Unlike in the passenger-car segment, Dorobantu and when hybridised, a zero tailpipe sees the transmissions used in electrified CVs as emissions driving mode can be made possible being multi-speed. The difference in torque for city routes.” Hybridisation sets new requirements is one thing, he says, but more

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“A smart, hybridised automated mechanical transmission can creep, meaning it can perform low-speed, high-precision manoeuvrability. This is a hard thing for a driver to do today, as on manual transmissions it requires them to slip the clutch. This is inefficient, and requires considerable skill

importantly, this allows for the maximisation of Components like transmissions, says regenerative power when braking and coasting. Dorobantu, must be ‘vocational’. Efficiency gains of up to 30% on single speed transmission electrified CVs are possible for “A smart, hybridised automated mechanical vehicles in urban applications, such as delivery transmission not only saves fuel thanks to the trucks, refuse trucks and more: multi-speed hybrid function, but it also becomes a high- transmissions can run an electricity generation performance vocational transmission,” he mechanism at different ratios to the wheel- explains. “For example, it can creep, meaning it speed. Suddenly, smaller batteries or greater can perform low-speed, high-precision ranges are available to fleets. manoeuvrability. This is a hard thing for a driver to do today, as on manual transmissions it Vocational components requires them to slip the clutch. This is inefficient, and requires considerable skill.” An automatic transmission, he adds, might make life This kind of intimate knowledge around easier for the driver, but still proves very fuel- products will be essential to truck suppliers as inefficient without a hybrid powertrain. they move forward: how are components used, and how will requirements change not just with the advent of electrification, but autonomy too? Power-up A transmission for an electrified CV is built to reduce emissions, in particular GHG, but Another area where Eaton is deeply involved is Dorobantu is confident that Eaton’s expertise in power electronics for CVs. There are several the area, and its knowledge of applications, will trends which mean that more power is needed also help companies at the forefront of self- in the average truck: the advent of by-wire driving development: “We’ve been in the systems, controlled electrically by computers, is transmission and clutch business for so long,” one example. Computers for autonomous he says, “that we understand the applications, functions is another. However, an especially and we can work with the new players entering important consideration is the exhaust treatment the market, such as sensor providers and technology that will be used to comply with software companies.” ultra-low NOx requirements. All this comes on top of the substantial existing requirements, For example, one potential autonomy such as good quality air conditioning. application is automatic reversal into loading bays, and similarly precise movements such “These need to heat up the exhaust very quickly, as auto-coupling. However, this is not nearly and this is possible at 48V,” he says, “but as straight-forward for a heavy-duty vehicle providing 48V power to these vehicles is no as it might be for a passenger vehicle. trivial matter. What is needed is intelligence and

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Cummins believes diesel will be a primary power source in many “commercial markets for years to come. The future of diesel is bright, and when hybridised, a zero tailpipe emissions driving mode can be made possible for city routes

control, to manage what is essentially a four- at 12V, are limited to 2kW power due to pack of 12V lead-acid batteries. The problem with limitations on wires and electrical harneses. lithium-ion batteries is that they still lack the Future trucks will require more power, to run robustness demanded by the industry, and this better quality air conditioners, ultra-low NOx will remain the case for some years. Lead-acid emissions treatment systems, electric power batteries are reliable, but now the problem is steering and higher levels of infotainment, that they will be cycled much harder, which telematics and computing. The jump from 12V exacerbates problems around battery life.” to 48V brings power up to between 8kW and 10kW, which can accommodate these added More fleets could therefore start to make use of loads, using a similar electrical harness. intelligent power electronics, which uses temperature and voltage sensors to determine a The next step will be 30 to 40kW capability, battery pack’s status and condition, and which, as in the passenger car segment, will manages power use accordingly. Intelligent enable electric launches and better power electronics is also about integration. regenerative braking. At this level of power, Higher voltages require more complex systems, he says, lead-acid technology becomes a which is not hard in theory, says Dorobantu: it is limiting factor: “This is when the industry will simply a case of putting more componentry into need the next generation of lithium-ion the vehicle. However, this increases complexity, batteries for commercial vehicles.” Anything reduces reliability and increases costs. beyond 10kW will require high voltage systems in excess of 100V. Wires and The integration of components such as DC to harnessing become very expensive in this DC convertors, power distributors and case, due to the electric shock risk. junction boxes reduces numerous costs, such as connectors and thermal management Beyond that, Dorobantu believes the next big solutions, but also grants higher levels of question is whether long-haul can make the control and diagnostics. This is the norm in the switch to pure battery-propulsion. Today passenger car segment: the challenge for such technology is effectively written off by suppliers is how to achieve such high levels of poor ranges and long re-charge times, he integration for the commercial vehicle says. “Hydrogen is an attractive segment, a high-mix low-volume market where opportunity,” he concludes, “as it fixes vehicles are highly customised. problems around weight and re-charging time, which is similar to diesel. And if that hydrogen fuel is produced by renewables, it Lithium looms is a true well-to-wheel zero emission solution.” Interest generated by the likes of Whilst lithium-ion batteries may not be ready Nikola, Toyota and infrastructure giants such today, Dorobantu predicts their mass adoption as Shell has proven that Dorobantu is not will become necessary in future following more alone in his assessment. development. Conventional trucks, which run

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From mines to motorways: Volvo taps AI expert for autonomous truck evolution

Megan Lampinen takes a closer look at Volvo Group's autonomous truck tech partnership with Nvidia

utomation promises to revolutionise freight Amovement. With driverless trucks plying the world's highways 24/7, goods can be shipped across vast distances in record time. At We need to partner with the the same time, eliminating human error, the cause of most truck accidents, road collisions “best. Partnership is the new and fatalities could all but disappear. leadership Before those benefits can be realised, though, the industry has to develop a truck capable of operating by itself. That's exactly what Volvo Group and Nvidia aim to do. The two vehicles, its Vera concept offers a glimpse of companies, leaders in their respective the future with its entirely cabless design, but segments, came together earlier this year to it's not quite ready for production. The big focus on perfecting autonomous capability for step now is to take automated technology trucks on public roads. While Volvo has built onto public roads, and for that Volvo needs up decades of expertise in the commercial expert input. vehicle segment, Nvidia has established a leadership position with artificial intelligence "Our strategy has been to partner with the (AI) and computing. world's best company in this area," added Stenqvist. "Nvidia's strong knowledge in AI and "We have been looking into autonomous accelerated computing combined with our vehicles (AV) for some time and have been deep knowledge of vehicle dynamics and testing them over the last couple of years," customer needs is a fantastic base for a long- Lars Stenqvist, Volvo Group's Chief term partnership." Technology Officer, told media at the announcement of the partnership. The Martin Lundstedt, President and Chief company, which has been developing Executive of the Volvo Group, echoed the automated driving systems on its own until importance of strong collaborations. "We need now, began with tests of autonomous trucks to partner with the best," he said. "Partnership in a limestone mine in Norway. For road is the new leadership."

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“The safety aspect is super important, and I can't imagine any company that stands more so for the belief in and dedication to safety than Volvo

Nvidia end-to-end The data centre work focuses on training the AI system's neural networks. Once the algorithms have been built, NVIDIA's DRIVE Constellation For Nvidia, this collaboration marks its entry vehicle simulator is used to test and validate the into a new, and potentially lucrative, segment. hardware and software going into the trucks. "We have been working on AVs for some time "We can scale up a data centre full of hundreds but up to now the focus has been on robo-taxis, or even thousands of our DRIVE Constellation passenger vehicles, and mobility innovation units, and each of those serves as an with start-ups," explained Nvidia founder and autonomous test vehicle driving in some Chief Executive Jensen Huang. "With Volvo we scenario that we can control," explained are entering into the CV world, where Shapiro. This allows a huge database of autonomous capability will revolutionise the simulated tests covering numerous, high-risk services available. This CV industry is a very scenarios such as rain, snow, blinding sun, etc. large one—several hundred billion dollars large. "These are the kinds of dangerous scenarios It is fairly safe to say now that autonomous that you’d never want to test in the real world," drive capability will change its future." he added.

The expertise behind this partnership is Nvidia DRIVE hardware and software is also formidable, but so too is the challenge ahead. found in the vehicle itself, where it takes all the "We have to respect the great engineering feats sensor data and essentially recreates a 3D ahead of us," observed Huang. Developing version of the vehicle's surroundings, in real automated functionality for trucks isn't quite the time. And it can do this 30 times a second. same as it is for cars. To start with, long-haul trucks operate in a different environment from robotaxis, running mostly on highways as opposed to dense urban environments. "There are unique challenges with trucks," explained Danny Shapiro, Senior Director Automotive at NVIDIA. "They are much heavier, they are bigger This partnership, one of the and they need longer stopping distances. Types “ deepest and broadest of sensors are different, and the number of sensors will often be more plentiful on a truck. development partnerships As such, you need even more processing power." we've ever announced, is And Nvidia is here to provide that. The transforming Volvo into a partnership was billed as the first 'end-to-end AI development, simulation and in-car computing technology company project' that Nvidia has yet announced. That means that Volvo uses the supplier's technology every step of the way, from the data centre to the truck on the road, and at every stage in between.

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“The transport industry is going through a huge transformation. It is all about bringing new technology into the business models

"This is almost like 3D graphics in reverse," announced, is transforming Volvo into a Shapiro told Automotive World . "Instead of technology company." creating a 3D model and projecting it onto a 2D screen, which is what you would do in a But what does that mean for the traditional truck video game or in a CAD programme, we take maker business model? A change, conceded two-dimensional data from a camera, three- Volvo. "The transport industry is going through a dimensional data from other sensors, and we huge transformation," observed Lundstedt. "It is recreate a 3D world. We then put ourselves in all about bringing new technology into the the middle of it and figure out how to actuate business model." But it will be a gradual process. the vehicle, accelerate or brake, turn left or The company intends to start its autonomous turn right, and so on." journey with development work for specific use cases. As Huang observed: "Because of the Notably, the core technology from Nvidia can diverse operating conditions and domains in find a home in many different applications. It which Volvo's CVs operate, there are many is not developing an end product that opportunities and areas where we can deploy somebody can simply snap into a vehicle, but early. These early domains include fenced areas rather an open system, a platform on which where the public is not allowed." developers can build. "There are hundreds of companies across all different segments that While the initial domains may be highly are developing on our technology," said structured, the goal is to develop technology Shapiro. "We made announcements in the that will work in the more open-ended world past with Paccar, and we have demonstrated of public driving. For now, Volvo is shying some things with DAF." away from any hard and firm launch dates. "We will not be super firm on when we hit the road," said Stenqvist. "We are humble in front Volvo's evolution of the challenges that we have. But safety is in the DNA of the Volvo Group and we would For the truck industry as a whole and for never take any solution to public roads until Volvo specifically, this automation project is we are sure we have a safe solution." significant for various reasons. As Huang emphasised, the safety impact could be huge: While the partners recognise the scale of "The safety aspect is super important, and I their challenge, they also recognise the scope can't imagine any company that stands more of its potential. For Huang, this is just the tip so for the belief in and dedication to safety of the iceberg: "The world is barely starting to than Volvo." He also went on to highlight how understand the profound implications of it signalled the transformation of Volvo from automating the future of machinery. simply a manufacturer of trucks into a Everything that moves in the future will have company offering much more: "This partial or complete automation. Automating partnership, one of the deepest and broadest technology will be foundational to the future development partnerships we've ever of everything that moves."

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