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UFC Fight Night Las Vegas, Nevada

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UFC Fight Night Las Vegas, Nevada Tipped Bets: Bet Marvin Vettori on the Money line for 1.5 units @ -122 203-147-5 (57.1%) picking sides in 2020. 35-11-1 (74.4%) on level 5 confidence. Picking the card with a level of confidence 1-5 on fighter winning. Winner Confidence level Best Bets for each bout My odds Vettori 4 Vettori ML -141 -200 (67%) Hill 3 Hill TKO +170 -150 (60%) Santos 4 Santos DEC +100 -233 (70%) Dolidze 3 Dolidze ML -205 -150 (60%) Villante 4 Villante ML -205 -233 (70%) Evloev 5 Evloev DEC -135 -300 (75%) Durden 3 Durden ITD +275 +100 (50%) Topuria 3 Topuria DEC +275 -170 (42%) Benitez 4 Benitez DEC +165 -186 (65%) Leavitt 4 Leavitt SUB +120 -186 (65%) Quinonez 3 Quinonez DEC +200 +100 (50%) Lines from BetOnline 12/04/20 +121 Jack Hermansson vs Marvin Vettori -141 Hermansson went from fighting Darren Till to Kevin Holland both of which IMO were far more favorable matchups for the top ranked middleweight. Nothing but respect to Jack for not batting an eye in taking any of the 3 fights, however he shouldn’t have taken this fight with Vettori. Marvin Vettori might be the most well rounded fighter in the division right now, and hes only continuing to improve. I rate the Italian very highly, and skill for skill hes in my top 5 in this middleweight division today. On the feet I feel like Marvin is going to have the striking edge with the ability to constantly press forward with heavy pressure. Hermansson has shown us more than once he doesn’t deal with pressure very well. Thiago Santos, Jared Cannonier both finished Jack fighting very similarly to how Vettori will approach the fight. Throw in Vettori has a small cage to work with taking away the much needed space from Hermansson. Vettori is going to have Jack constantly on his bike, and once that starts going south he is sure to look for his takedown. Another problem for Jack is that Marvin not only does a great Job of defending the takedown entries, but hes excellent at returning back to his feet while looking to do so immediately post takedown. Jack is an athletic skilled middleweight, but I Just feel like its going to be a matter of time until Marvin starts having some major success on the feet landing combinations. The Italian is going to have Hermansson constantly on his back foot where he will land finishing blows late in round 2 or early 3 finishing this fight inside the distance. My main concern for Marvin in this bout is if Jack were to have an opportunity to hit his very dangerous guillotine chokes or even another heel hook like he Just beat Kelvin Gastelum with. Outside of a submission threat I Just don’t feel like Jack is going to give Marvin many problems. Give me the Italian to make his mark in the division cementing himself in the top 5, and getting a number 1 contender fight next. Confidence in winner: 4 How I lined this fight: Vettori -200 (67%) Best bets for this bout: Vettori Money line -122 TIPPED BET*** -177 Jamahal Hill vs Ovince St Preux +152 In our co-main event we have what seems to be a passing of the torch type bout. OSP has been a UFC mainstay in the light heavyweight division since 2013. Hill is not only new to the UFC, but also pretty short on experience with only an 8-0 record. The precise, hard hitting striking of Hill who has incredible speed for a 205 pounder is going to be very tough for St Preux to overcome. You cant completely rule OSP out in this bout due to the massive experience edge, and if the fight hits the floor I do think he will have the edge. I Just think timing is everything, and in this particular spot I think Hill is going to roll. I like for Hill that OSP came in overweight which is rare for him, so I question how serious his training camp for the bout was. On the flip side Hill is clearly a hungry up and coming fighter looking to make his mark. I was going back n fourth on this fight all week, but I’m going to side with the up and comer to get yet another finish which will be his biggest to date. Hill knocks out St Preux early in round 2. Confidence in winner: 3 How I lined this fight: Hill -150 (60%) Best bets for this bout: Hill TKO +170 -220 Taila Santos vs Montana De La Rosa +185 Santos brings an impressive 16-1 professional record into the fight looking to start another win streak making it 2 in a row. Santos is a very athletic, strong, and powerful woman who IMO has a very high ceiling. The UFC is doing De La Rosa no favors here with another tough matchup following a loss last time out. Montana is 1-2 in her last 3 fights, and Santos fights very similarly to both girls who Just beat De La Rosa. I feel like the outcome is very likely to remain the same unless if MDR can get her wrestling going. MDR does have decent wrestling, and if she can get some takedowns with some extended top control shes got a shot here. I Just feel like the physical strength + athletic ability of Santos is going to be very hard to overcome. In her past fights MDR also hasn’t done a great Job of keeping extended top control post takedown, and I don’t expect that to change for her here. Santos will Just have a little to much speed + power for MDR potentially finding the finish after landing an accumulation of strikes. The finish likely comes late if it happens, but women’s fights see the scorecards well over 75% of the time so Santos by decision +100 isn’t a bad bet. Confidence in winner: 4 How I lined this fight: Santos -233 (70%) Best bets for this bout: Taila Santos Decision +100 -205 Roman Dolidze vs John Allan +175 I didn’t really dig into this fight at all with both guys being so short on UFC experience. Dolidze had a solid showing in his debut, but he fought a bad fighter. Allan fought on the contender series where he was ultimately submitted. If I had to pick a side here it would be Roman, but again this is my least confident pick on the entire card. Confidence in winner: 3 How I lined this fight: Dolidze -150 (60%) Best bets for this bout: Dolidze Money line -205 -205 Gian Villante vs Jake Collier +175 We have a battle of the two physically worst looking fighters in the UFC, where both guys literally look like they Just got off the couch. Keeping this one short & sweet I would have to side with Villante. I think Villante is probably the guy whose actually a legit heavyweight here not Just in horrible shape, and hes the fighter with more skill out of the two. I’m not feeling great about either guy here, but look for Villante to get his leg kicks going early which will slow Collier down. Then Gian will start landing big shots on Collier finishing him with strikes. Confidence in winner: 4 How I lined this fight: Villante -233 (70%) Best bet for this bout: Villante Money line -205 -675 Movsar Evloev vs Nate Landwehr +500 In a bout between two former m-1 champions there may be a little bad blood in this bout. Evloev is a skilled technician bringing a potent wrestling attack with some decent striking skills. Landwehr on the other hand is more of a brawler looking to make the fight chaotic, and that’s exactly what he hast to do here if he has any shot to win. Personally I think this line is a bit wide, but I do still think Evloev wins this fight around 75%. Nate is going to have to keep distance from Evloev keeping this bout a striking match as long as possible while staying off the cage. I feel like the Russians wrestling chops are going to Just be a little bit to much to overcome for the brawling American fighter. The more chaotic this fight gets the better for Nate. However, I expect the technician to keep this bout within his realm getting the win. I wouldn’t touch the money line, but if you must be on the fight take Evloev to win by decision. Confidence in winner: 5 How I lined this fight: Evloev -300 (75%) Best bets for this bout: Evloev Decision -135 +145 Cody Durden vs Jimmy Flick -170 Jimmy Flick is one of the two fighters who make their debut coming off contender series wins over the summer. Flick seems a bit one dimensional, but hes very good in that dimension. In his 15 professional wins 13 of them have come by way of submission, and if he wins here I expect no different. The opposition is another new comer to the UFC who will be making his 2nd walk to the octagon after a draw in his debut. Cody Durden is without question the more well rounded fighter of the two in this bout. IMO, the outcome of this bout is pretty easy, if Flick can continually get his takedown he probably wins by submission. I Just don’t love siding with guys who only have one path of victory.
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