UFC Fight Night ,

Tipped Bets: Bet Marvin Vettori on the Money line for 1.5 units @ -122

203-147-5 (57.1%) picking sides in 2020. 35-11-1 (74.4%) on level 5 confidence. Picking the card with a level of confidence 1-5 on fighter winning. Winner Confidence level Best Bets for each bout My odds Vettori 4 Vettori ML -141 -200 (67%) Hill 3 Hill TKO +170 -150 (60%) Santos 4 Santos DEC +100 -233 (70%) Dolidze 3 Dolidze ML -205 -150 (60%) Villante 4 Villante ML -205 -233 (70%) Evloev 5 Evloev DEC -135 -300 (75%) Durden 3 Durden ITD +275 +100 (50%) Topuria 3 Topuria DEC +275 -170 (42%) Benitez 4 Benitez DEC +165 -186 (65%) Leavitt 4 Leavitt SUB +120 -186 (65%) Quinonez 3 Quinonez DEC +200 +100 (50%) Lines from BetOnline 12/04/20

+121 vs Marvin Vettori -141 Hermansson went from fighting to both of which IMO were far more favorable matchups for the top ranked . Nothing but respect to Jack for not batting an eye in taking any of the 3 fights, however he shouldn’t have taken this fight with Vettori. Marvin Vettori might be the most well rounded fighter in the division right now, and hes only continuing to improve. I rate the Italian very highly, and skill for skill hes in my top 5 in this middleweight division today. On the feet I feel like Marvin is going to have the striking edge with the ability to constantly press forward with heavy pressure. Hermansson has shown us more than once he doesn’t deal with pressure very well. , both finished Jack fighting very similarly to how Vettori will approach the fight. Throw in Vettori has a small cage to work with taking away the much needed space from Hermansson. Vettori is going to have Jack constantly on his bike, and once that starts going south he is sure to look for his takedown. Another problem for Jack is that Marvin not only does a great job of defending the takedown entries, but hes excellent at returning back to his feet while looking to do so immediately post takedown. Jack is an athletic skilled middleweight, but I just feel like its going to be a matter of time until Marvin starts having some major success on the feet landing combinations. The Italian is going to have Hermansson constantly on his back foot where he will land finishing blows late in round 2 or early 3 finishing this fight inside the distance. My main concern for Marvin in this bout is if Jack were to have an opportunity to hit his very dangerous guillotine chokes or even another heel hook like he just beat with. Outside of a submission threat I just don’t feel like Jack is going to give Marvin many problems. Give me the Italian to make his mark in the division cementing himself in the top 5, and getting a number 1 contender fight next. Confidence in winner: 4 How I lined this fight: Vettori -200 (67%) Best bets for this bout: Vettori Money line -122 TIPPED BET***

-177 Jamahal Hill vs Ovince St Preux +152 In our co-main event we have what seems to be a passing of the torch type bout. OSP has been a UFC mainstay in the light heavyweight division since 2013. Hill is not only new to the UFC, but also pretty short on experience with only an 8-0 record. The precise, hard hitting striking of Hill who has incredible speed for a 205 pounder is going to be very tough for St Preux to overcome. You cant completely rule OSP out in this bout due to the massive experience edge, and if the fight hits the floor I do think he will have the edge. I just think timing is everything, and in this particular spot I think Hill is going to roll. I like for Hill that OSP came in overweight which is rare for him, so I question how serious his training camp for the bout was. On the flip side Hill is clearly a hungry up and coming fighter looking to make his mark. I was going back n fourth on this fight all week, but I’m going to side with the up and comer to get yet another finish which will be his biggest to date. Hill knocks out St Preux early in round 2. Confidence in winner: 3 How I lined this fight: Hill -150 (60%) Best bets for this bout: Hill TKO +170

-220 Taila Santos vs Montana De La Rosa +185 Santos brings an impressive 16-1 professional record into the fight looking to start another win streak making it 2 in a row. Santos is a very athletic, strong, and powerful woman who IMO has a very high ceiling. The UFC is doing De La Rosa no favors here with another tough matchup following a loss last time out. Montana is 1-2 in her last 3 fights, and Santos fights very similarly to both girls who just beat De La Rosa. I feel like the outcome is very likely to remain the same unless if MDR can get her going. MDR does have decent wrestling, and if she can get some takedowns with some extended top control shes got a shot here. I just feel like the physical strength + athletic ability of Santos is going to be very hard to overcome. In her past fights MDR also hasn’t done a great job of keeping extended top control post takedown, and I don’t expect that to change for her here. Santos will just have a little to much speed + power for MDR potentially finding the finish after landing an accumulation of strikes. The finish likely comes late if it happens, but women’s fights see the scorecards well over 75% of the time so Santos by decision +100 isn’t a bad bet. Confidence in winner: 4 How I lined this fight: Santos -233 (70%) Best bets for this bout: Taila Santos Decision +100

-205 Roman Dolidze vs John Allan +175 I didn’t really dig into this fight at all with both guys being so short on UFC experience. Dolidze had a solid showing in his debut, but he fought a bad fighter. Allan fought on the contender series where he was ultimately submitted. If I had to pick a side here it would be Roman, but again this is my least confident pick on the entire card. Confidence in winner: 3 How I lined this fight: Dolidze -150 (60%) Best bets for this bout: Dolidze Money line -205

-205 Gian Villante vs Jake Collier +175 We have a battle of the two physically worst looking fighters in the UFC, where both guys literally look like they just got off the couch. Keeping this one short & sweet I would have to side with Villante. I think Villante is probably the guy whose actually a legit heavyweight here not just in horrible shape, and hes the fighter with more skill out of the two. I’m not feeling great about either guy here, but look for Villante to get his leg kicks going early which will slow Collier down. Then Gian will start landing big shots on Collier finishing him with strikes. Confidence in winner: 4 How I lined this fight: Villante -233 (70%) Best bet for this bout: Villante Money line -205

-675 Movsar Evloev vs Nate Landwehr +500 In a bout between two former m-1 champions there may be a little bad blood in this bout. Evloev is a skilled technician bringing a potent wrestling attack with some decent striking skills. Landwehr on the other hand is more of a brawler looking to make the fight chaotic, and that’s exactly what he hast to do here if he has any shot to win. Personally I think this line is a bit wide, but I do still think Evloev wins this fight around 75%. Nate is going to have to keep distance from Evloev keeping this bout a striking match as long as possible while staying off the cage. I feel like the Russians wrestling chops are going to just be a little bit to much to overcome for the brawling American fighter. The more chaotic this fight gets the better for Nate. However, I expect the technician to keep this bout within his realm getting the win. I wouldn’t touch the money line, but if you must be on the fight take Evloev to win by decision. Confidence in winner: 5 How I lined this fight: Evloev -300 (75%) Best bets for this bout: Evloev Decision -135

+145 Cody Durden vs Jimmy Flick -170 Jimmy Flick is one of the two fighters who make their debut coming off contender series wins over the summer. Flick seems a bit one dimensional, but hes very good in that dimension. In his 15 professional wins 13 of them have come by way of submission, and if he wins here I expect no different. The opposition is another new comer to the UFC who will be making his 2nd walk to the octagon after a draw in his debut. Cody Durden is without question the more well rounded fighter of the two in this bout. IMO, the outcome of this bout is pretty easy, if Flick can continually get his takedown he probably wins by submission. I just don’t love siding with guys who only have one path of victory. If Durden can keep this fight on the feet or return to his feet without being submitted I feel like hes going to finish Flick. If your going to bet on Flick I think you should play the submission prop which sits at +105 right now, however if you go the Durden side which I am ITD +275 seems like a very solid play. Ill take the dog Durden to avoid the specialists spider web keeping this fight on the feet getting the win most likely by TKO. Confidence in winner: 3 How I line this fight: Durden +100 (50%) Best bets for this bout: Durden ITD +275

-250 Illia Topuria vs Damon Jackson +210 Topuria is new to the UFC making his second appearance this weekend, and was extremely impressive in his debut. The young fighter has very solid takedowns coupled with excellent ground game where hes positionally aware with a submission threat. Jackson has double the professional experience while making his 4th walk to the octagon in his second stint with the promotion. Last time out Jackson was taken down, and controlled most of the fight. Come R3 his opponent ran out of gas leaving an opening for Jackson to capitalize, where he came from behind to win by submission. While Jackson will be competent enough in submission defense to not be finished, I think the major difference in this bout will be that Topuria is a much better positional mat grappler than Jacksons previous opposition. Topuria is going to get his takedowns early winning round 1 & 2. Round 3 is where it gets interesting as Topuria did slow down in his debut so hes gotta be careful considering Jackson has a good gas tank. Assuming Topuria doesn’t get caught after he slows down in the latter part of the bout, I feel like this fight is his for the taking. I think Topuria will take 2 rounds pretty clearly & the 3rd will be tightly contested, but the up and coming fighter will improve to 2-0 inside the octagon winning by decision. Confidence in winner: 3 How I line this fight: Topuria -170 (62%) Best bets for this bout: Topuria Decision +275

+187 Justin Jaynes vs Gabriel Benitez -222 In a featherweight contest we have two fighters who both are needing to get back into the win column after coming off losses. Jaynes was out-classed by Gavin Tucker for the better part of 3 rounds, and Benitez out-powered by Omar Morales in his last outing. Jaynes has two great equalizers one being his power, and the second being his ability to wrestle. If he has any hope of winning this fight hes going to need to employ one of the two if not both to beat Benitez. Benitez has shown he can be finished, and taken to the floor with a wrestling attack. On the flip side Jaynes will have his hands full on the feet as Benitez will not only be the better striker, but should possess the speed advantage beating him to the punch. The most important key to this fight will likely be the fact that Benitez has shown to have good cardio, and Jaynes does not. I think Jaynes keeps this fight close for the first 7 minutes mixing in the wrestling, but after that I think Moggly is going to start finding his footing landing some consistent offense. Look for the cardio of Benitez to shine through in this bout helping him flip the momentum in his favor ultimately winning a decision. Confidence in winner: 4 How I line this fight: Benitez -186 (65%) Best bets for this bout: Benitez Decision +165

-425 Jordan Leavitt vs Matt Wiman +325 Leavitt is making his first official UFC appearance since winning on the contender series back in August. Jordan is a very high level bjj player whose won 5 of his 7 professional bouts on the floor forcing his opposition to tap. Outside of Leavitt’s grappling skills he leaves a lot to be desired as a fighter. On the other side you have Wiman whose fought far superior competition, and in 25 professional fights hes never been submitted making this bout very interesting. Wiman last won a fight in 2014 where he seemingly retired from the sport, but then returned in 2019 taking two very lopsided losses. At 37 years old I question Wiman’s ability to compete at the highest level dealing with the next breed of fighters. Fortunately for him hes fighting what seems to be a one trick pony in Leavitt. I do think this line is wide giving Leavitt far to much respect. However, I’m still siding with the up and coming fighter to eventually get this fight to the floor giving Wiman his first career submission loss. When Leavitt wins this fight I feel comfortable saying it happens a little over 50% of the time by submission, and another 15% or so by decision making that submission prop a solid play. Give me Leavitt to win by submission late in round 1 in his official UFC debut. Confidence in winner: 4 How I line this fight: Leavitt -186 (65%) Best bets for this bout: Leavitt SUB +120

-135 Louis Smolka vs Jose Quinonez +115 Smolka v Quinonez could very well play as a grappler v striker affair. I feel that if this fight hits the mat on Smolka’s terms he will have an advantage with his heavy top pressure & dangerous submission game. If the fight stays on the feet then I’ll give Quinonez an edge versus the overly aggressive Smolka. Another reason that I lean Quinonez in this spot is that hes shown the ability to take guys down landing on average 2.58 takedowns per 15 minutes. If Jose can take Smolka down while establishing, and keeping top control it wont be quite as dangerous of a proposition for him on the floor. I think Quinonez keeps this fight upright being the cleaner striker on the feet while mixing in takedowns winning 2 of the 3 rounds. Ill take Quinonez to edge a decision victory in a close back n fourth bout. Confidence in winner: 3 How I line this fight: Quinonez +100 (50%) Best bets for this bout: Quinonez Decision +200

No full Draft Kings lineups tomorrow. This week seems very hard after these 3, but when I took a look I felt these salaries are excellent for tomorrow.

Vettori 8.2k Hill 8.4k Durden 7.7k