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Macroeconomic Review October 2019 Vol XVIII Issue 2

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Macroeconomic Review October 2019 Vol XVIII Issue 2 Volume XVIII, Issue 2 October 2019 Volume XVIII, Issue 2 October 2019 Economic Policy Group Monetary Authority of Singapore ISSN 0219-8908 Published in October 2019 Economic Policy Group Monetary Authority of Singapore http://www.mas.gov.sg All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanised, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act (Cap. 63). Application for the copyright owner's written permission to reproduce any part of this publication should be addressed to: Economic Policy Group Monetary Authority of Singapore 10 Shenton Way MAS Building Singapore 079117 Printed by Xpress Print Singapore Contents Preface i Monetary Policy Statement ii-iv 1 The International Economy 2 1.1 G3 Economies 4 1.2 Asia 8 1.3 Global Inflation 14 2 The Singapore Economy 18 2.1 Recent Economic Developments 19 2.2 Economic Outlook 23 2.3 Singapore’s Economic Downturns: A Macro-Financial Perspective 29 Box A: Business and Financial Cycles in Singapore 34 3 Labour Market and Inflation 40 3.1 Labour Market 41 3.2 Consumer Price Developments 45 Box B: A New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve for Singapore 54 4 Macroeconomic Policy 62 4.1 Monetary Policy 63 4.2 Fiscal Policy 70 Box C: Review of MAS Money Market Operations in FY2018/19 73 Special Features Special Feature A: Asian Monetary Policy Forum 2019 78 Special Feature B: Mind the Gaps! Output Gaps for Monetary Policy 85 And Financial Stability Assessments Special Feature C: Upgrading and Inflation Expectations in Singapore: 92 A Survey Experiment Statistical Appendix 100 Monetary Authority of Singapore Economic Policy Group Macroeconomic Review, October 2019 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ACU Asian Currency Unit AFC Asian Financial Crisis ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BIS Bank for International Settlements COE Certificate of Entitlement CPF Central Provident Fund CPI consumer price index DBU Domestic Banking Unit ECB European Central Bank EIA Energy Information Administration EU European Union EPG Economic Policy Group FDI Foreign Direct Investment F&B food and beverage GDP gross domestic product GFC Global Financial Crisis GFCF gross fixed capital formation GST Goods and Services Tax HDB Housing & Development Board ICT information and communications technology IMF International Monetary Fund IPI import price index IT information technology m-o-m month-on-month MNC multinational corporation NAIRU non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment NEA Northeast Asian economies NEER nominal effective exchange rate NODX non-oil domestic exports OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OPEC Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries PBC People’s Bank of China PCE private consumption expenditure PMI purchasing managers’ index PPP purchasing power parity q-o-q quarter-on-quarter REER real effective exchange rate SA seasonally adjusted SAAR seasonally adjusted annualised rate ULC unit labour cost VA value added y-o-y year-on-year Monetary Authority of Singapore Economic Policy Group Preface i Preface The Macroeconomic Review is published twice a year in conjunction with the release of the MAS Monetary Policy Statement. The Review documents the Economic Policy Group’s (EPG) analysis and assessment of macroeconomic developments in the Singapore economy, and shares with market participants, analysts and the wider public, the basis for the policy decisions conveyed in the Monetary Policy Statement. It also features in-depth studies undertaken by EPG, and invited guest contributors, on broader economic issues facing Singapore. In this issue of the Review, we are pleased to present Special Feature A documenting the proceedings of the 6th Asian Monetary Policy Forum (AMPF) held in May this year, which saw central bankers, academics and industry representatives offer their perspectives on the challenges confronting monetary policy today. The 6th AMPF was jointly organised by the Chicago Booth School of Business, the National University of Singapore (NUS) Business School and MAS under the auspices of the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER). We are grateful to Professor Douglas Laxton of the NOVA School of Business and Economics and former Division Chief of the Economic Modeling Division in the IMF’s Research Department for contributing Special Feature B, which discusses the output gap measures relevant to monetary policy and financial stability assessments, and for the need to make a clear distinction between them for policy purposes. Our thanks also go to Professor Sumit Agarwal and Mr Chua Yeow Hwee at NUS and Professor Changcheng Song of the Singapore Management University (SMU) for Special Feature C, which presents the findings of a study on the role of changing consumption habits in shaping the inflation expectations of households. We also extend our appreciation to Dan Nyberg and Han Teng Chua of the IMF for preparing Box A, which examines the degree of synchronisation of business and financial cycles in Singapore with their global counterparts. Finally, we would like to thank Associate Professor Peter Wilson for his assistance in editing the Review. This Macroeconomic Review is produced by EPG, MAS. The team comprises: Alvin Jason s/o John, Andrew Colquhoun, Ang Ziqin, Angeline Qiu, Betty Chong, Brian Lee, Celine Sia, Chia Yan Min, Choy Keen Meng, Cyrene Chew, Edward Robinson, Elitza Mileva, Eng Aik Shan, Geraldine Koh, Grace Lim, Harry Lee, Hema d/o Sevakerdasan, Huang Junjie, Irineu de Carvalho Filho, Jensen Tan, Li Tiansheng, Liew Yin Sze, Linda Ng, Michael Ng, Neha Varma, Ng DingXuan, Ng Yi Ping, Nicholas Koh, Priscilla Ng, Seah Wee Ting, Shem Ng, Soh Wai Mei, Tan Boon Heng, Tan Choon Leng, Tan Yin Ying, Toh Jing Ting, Toh Ling Yan, Tu Suh Ping and Wu Jingyu. The data used in the Review was drawn from the following government agencies, unless otherwise stated: BCA, CPF Board, DOS, EDB, Enterprise Singapore, IMDA, LTA, MOF, MOM, MND, MPA, MTI, STB and URA. Monetary Authority of Singapore Economic Policy Group ii Macroeconomic Review, October 2019 3 14 October 2019 Monetary Policy Statement INTRODUCTION 1. In its April 2019 Monetary Policy Statement, MAS maintained the rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band. There was also no change to the width of the policy band or the level at which it was centred. This policy stance was assessed to be appropriate, given contained inflationary pressures and a narrowing of the positive output gap. Chart 1 S$ Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) 103 Appreciation 102 101 100 8 Apr 2016 Average = 100) Average= 2016 Apr 8 – 99 Depreciation Index Index (4 98 Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct 2016 2017 2018 2019 indicates release of Monetary Policy Statement 2. Over the last six months, the S$NEER has fluctuated within the upper half of the policy band, reflecting shifts in global risk sentiment and capital inflows into Singapore. The three-month S$ SIBOR edged up from 1.9% in end-April 2019 to 2.0% in end-June, before falling back to 1.9% in August, where it has remained as at end-September. OUTLOOK 3. Growth in the Singapore economy has slowed over the first three quarters of the year. It is expected to pick up modestly in 2020, although this projection is subject to considerable uncertainty in the external environment. Core inflation has come in lower than anticipated in recent months, and will remain subdued in the year ahead. Monetary Authority of Singapore Economic Policy Group Monetary Policy Statement iii Growth Backdrop 4. According to the Advance Estimates released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry today, the Singapore economy grew by 0.1% year-on-year in Q3 2019, similar to the preceding quarter. In the last six months, the drag on GDP growth exerted by the manufacturing sector has intensified, reflecting the ongoing downturn in the global electronics cycle as well as the pullback in investment spending, caused in part by the uncertainty in US-China relations. In comparison, activity in the services sectors continued to expand, supported mainly by finance & insurance and business services. The construction sector also remained on a recovery path, and grew for the third consecutive quarter in Q3. 5. Global economic growth is expected to slow discernibly in 2019 compared to the previous two years, and should stabilise in 2020 barring further shocks. Growth had eased more significantly in Q2 2019 as the cumulative effect of the tariffs and elevated policy uncertainty took a heavier toll on manufacturing and trade. There are nascent signs that the downturn could spill over into domestic demand in some of Singapore’s major trading partners in the quarters ahead, even as macroeconomic policy conditions in these economies have turned more accommodative. 6. Against this global backdrop, the weakness in electronics production and its supporting industries in Singapore is likely to persist over the near term. At the same time, the finance & insurance and information & communications services sectors should continue to expand, underpinned by domestic demand in the region and ongoing digitalisation-related investments. Within the domestic-oriented sectors, the outlook for the retail industry has dimmed but growth in education, health & social services is expected to stay resilient. The construction sector should also recover further in the year ahead, given the strong pipeline of public infrastructure projects. 7. On the whole, Singapore’s GDP growth is projected to come in at around the mid-point of the 0–1% forecast range in 2019 and improve modestly in 2020. The output gap has turned slightly negative and this is expected to persist into 2020, which will keep inflationary pressures muted. Inflation Trends and Outlook 8.
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