Presentation.Pdf

IBM Corporation Computing, Business and

Operations Research

William Pulleyblank VP, Center for Business Optimization IBM

1E+16 Blue Gene / P Blue Gene / L 1E+14 NEC Earth Simulator ASCI White ASCI Red Blue Pacific 1E+12 ASCI Red NWT CP-PACS CM-5 Paragon 1E+10 Delta CRAY-2 i860 (MPPs) Doubling time = 1.5 yr. Y-MP8 X-MP4 Cyber 205 X-MP2 (parallel vectors) 1E+8 CRAY-1 CDC STAR-100 (vectors) CDC 7600 CDC 6600 (ICs)

Peak Speed (flops) 1E+6 IBM Stretch 1E+4 IBM 7090 (transistors) IBM 701 IBM 704 UNIVAC 1E+2 ENIAC (vacuum tubes) 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Introduced

7.3 Teraflop/s on LINPACK 12.3 Teraflop/s Source: http://www.llnl.gov/CASC/sc2001_fliers/ASCI_White/ASCI_White01.html

Source: http://archive.niees.ac.uk/talks/esm/Lois.ppt

35.9 Teraflop/s on LINPACK Source: http://callysto.hpcc.unical.it/hpc2004/talks/stadler.ppt 35.86 Tflop/s

Node Card 180/360 TF/s 32 TB (32 chips 4x4x2) 16 compute, 0-2 IO cards 2.8/5.6 TF/s 512 GB Compute Card 2 chips, 1x2x1

90/180 GF/s Chip 16 GB 2 processors

PLB (4:1) 32k/32k L1 256 128 L2

440 CPU 4MB

EDRAM Shared “Double FPU” L3 directory L3 Cache Multiported 1024+ for EDRAM or 256 144 ECC snoop Shared Memory SRAM 32k/32k L1 128 Buffer L2 440 CPU 256 Includes ECC I/O proc

256 “Double FPU”

128

DDR Ethernet JTAG Control • IBM CU-11, 0.13 µm Gbit Access Torus Tree Global with ECC • 11 x 11 mm die size Interrupt • 25 x 32 mm CBGA Gbit JTAG 6 out and 3 out and 144 bit wide • 474 pins, 328 signal Ethernet 6 in, each at 3 in, each at 4 global DDR 1.4 Gbit/s link 2.8 Gbit/s link barriers or 256/512MB • 1.5/2.5 Volt interrupts

Center for Business Optimization © 2008 IBM Corporation 7 IBM: Blue Gene breaks speed record Wednesday, September 29, 2004 Posted: 12:47 PM EDT (1647 GMT) NEW YORK (AP) -- IBM Corp. claimed unofficial bragging rights Tuesday as owner of the world's fastest supercomputer. Earth BlueGene/L BlueGene/L For three years running, the fastest supercomputerSimulator has8 beenracks NEC's Earth64 Simulator racks in Japan. 2002 2004 2005 … Earth Simulator can sustain speeds of 35.86 teraflops. LINPACK 35.86 TF/s 36.01 TF/s 280.6 TF/s IBM said itsperformance still-unfinished Blue Gene/L System, named for its ability to model the folding of human proteins, can sustain speeds of 36 teraflops. A teraflop is 1 trillion Footprint 3250 sq. m. 32 sq. m. 250 sq. m. calculations per second.

Lawrence LivermoreElectrical National Power Laboratory 6000 Kwattsplans to install216 theKwatts Blue Gene/L1700 system Kwatts next year withRequirement 130,000 processors and 64 racks, half a tennis court in size. The labs will use it for modeling the behavior and aging of high explosives, astrophysics, cosmology and basic science, lab spokesman Bob Hirschfeld said.

70.7 Teraflop/s on LINPACK

280 Teraflop/s on LINPACK (128K processors)

Center for Business Optimization © 2008 IBM Corporation 11 Faster than a speeding bullet, ASCI’s partnership with IBM is creating BlueGene/L – a new supercomputer with nearly 10x the peak speed, in 1/5th the area, using a fraction of the electrical power of comparable supercomputers

Generating a theoretical peak computing speed of 360 trillion operations per second, occupying 2,500 ft2 of floor space, and consuming 1.5 MW of electrical power–a fraction of the space and power needed by other supercomputers at this scale–BlueGene/L will likely be the fastest supercomputer on the planet when it is deployed in early 2005. In the time that a speeding bullet could fly across BlueGene/L, this system can perform 10,000 global sums over a value stored in each of its 65,536 nodes. More powerful than a locomotive, BlueGene/L will use the electrical power equivalent of a 2000-horsepower diesel engine, in the space of a moderately sized suburban home. To match BlueGene/L’s prodigious peak compute capability, every man, woman and child on Earth would need to perform 60,000 calculations per second without transposing digits or forgetting to “carry the one”. The enormous bandwidth of its internal communications networks will support 150 simultaneous telephone conversations for every person in the US. To match its tremendous input rate, an individual would need to speed-read the complete works of Shakespeare in 1/1000-th of a second. Without getting writers cramp, in less than 10 minutes BlueGene/L can write the entire 20TB book collection of the Library of Congress. In the time it takes for an individual to say “Mississippi one”, BlueGene/L can send and receive 100,000 round-trip MPI messages between its 216 dual-processor nodes. Unfortunately at a weight of 30 metric tons, BlueGene/L is not able to leap tall buildings in a single bound.

WhatWhat isis aa protein?protein? Examples of Protein Function Structural: keratin (skin, hair, nail), collagen (tendon), fibrin (clot) Motive: actomyosin (muscle) Transport: Hemoglobin (blood) Signaling: Growth factors, insulin, hormones (blood) Regulation: Transcription factor (gene expression) Catalysis: Enzymes

H R H RRH There are 20 natural amino acids N CCNCCNCC with different physicochemical properties, such as: shape, volume, H O H O H O flexibility, hydrophobic, hydrophilic, charge

Protein is a linear polymer. 30 to several hundred residues long.

Sequence >3FIB:_ FIBRINOGEN GAMMA CHAIN QIHDITGKDCQDIANKGAKQSGLYFIKPLKANQQFLVYCEIDGSGNGWTVFQKRLDGSVD FKKNWIQYKEGFGHLSPTGTTEFWLGNEKIHLISTQSAIPYALRVELEDWNGRTSTADYA MFKVGPEADKYRLTYAYFAGGDAGDAFDGFDFGDDPSDKFFTSHNGMQFSTWDNDNDKFE GNCAEQDGSGWWMNKCHAGHLNGVYYQGGTYSKASTPNGYDNGIIWATWKTRWYSMKKTT MKIIPFNRL Structure

Function

Precursor of fibrin. Fibrin polymerizes to form blood clots. Conversion of fibrinogen to fibrin is regulated via a cascade of factors to control blood clotting.

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Scalable, general purpose code for performing classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations using highly accurate MGPT potentials MGPT semi-empirical potentials, based on a rigorous expansion of many body terms in the total energy, are needed in to quantitatively investigate dynamic behavior of transitions metals and actinides under extreme conditions 64K and 256K atom simulations on 2K nodes are order of magnitude larger than previously 2,048,000 Tantalum atoms attempted; based on 2M atom simulation on Visualization of important new 16K nodes, close to perfect scaling expected scientific findings already achieved for full machine (“very impressive machine” on BG/L: Molten Ta at 5000K says PI…) demonstrates solidification during isothermal compression to 250 GPa

Center for Business Optimization © 2008 IBM Corporation 17 Center for Business Optimization © 2008 IBM Corporation 18 LOFAR (Low Frequency Array) A radio antennae array covering 350 km in Northern Europe, sending 320 Gbits/s to a central computer for processing

LOFAR will observe galaxies at the edge of the visible universe, revealing how they formed, 13 billion years ago. LOFAR array in Netherlands

Data streaming: a new application for BG/L, also useful for surveillance, weather, and geological sensing.

Investigate multi-petaop processing for the Square Kilometer Array, the next generation telescope under current discussion.

90% 60% 80% 50% 70% 60% 40% 50% 30% 40% 1810 1835 1860 1885 1910 1935 1960 1985 2010 30% 20% 20% 10% Japan 10% United States 0% 0% 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

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100% 90%

90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20% 10% Germany 10% China 0% 0%1810 1835 1860 1885 1910 1935 1960 1985 2010 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20% Russia 10% India 10% 0% 0%1810 1835 1860 1885 1910 1935 1960 1985 2010 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

US Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/winter/art03.pdf

“… modern economies are both service economies and economies of innovation. Paradoxically, they are not regarded as economies of innovation in services... It is as if service and innovation were two parallel universes that coexist in blissful ignorance of each other.”

F. Gallouj (2002)

Center for Business Optimization © 2008 IBM Corporation 24 IBM launched the Center for Business Optimization to tackle our clients’ most complex challenges and lead the commercialization of IBM’s, and our partners’, optimization and analytics capability Mission

Tackle previously unsolvable, complex client business problems Lead the commercialization of IBM’s advanced optimization and business analytics capabilities to deliver unique value to our clients and establish IBM as the leader in this market Create a sustainable, profitable business

Scope of Activities

Advanced analytic and optimization consulting Methods and tools Solutions

Integrate asset-based solutions with business operations

Provide scalable, replicable asset-based solutions on standard platforms Hosted services www.ibm.com/services/cbo

1.Massive amounts of noisy data, both repository and streaming

2.Risk and uncertainty

3.Operations systems augment strategy and planning

Repository and streaming data Sensors, RF/ID tags, point of sale devices Business intelligence, data mining, integrated with optimization Integration of data from multiple sources Public

Private

Shared

The growth of machine generated, time-based data from a variety of sources is changing the game

Machine-generated data Machine-generated versus authored dataMachine-generated versus authored data 1,0001,000 Storage Machine-generatedonlineStorage online Video Machine-generated MedicalAllAll medical medical data imaging imaging 100100 Data data storedMedical data stored SurveillanceSurveillance bytes bytes 1010 SurveillanceSurveillance for for urban urban areas Personalareas multimediaPersonal multimedia 1 1 InIn databases databases Authored Data Authored Authored data .1 .1 data StaticStatic Web Web data data .01.01 TextText data data Giga-bytes/UScapita/year

.001.001 19951995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 YearYear

1. Faster rotation speeds 4D CT – = more data, faster includes time 2. More slices per rotation = more data, faster (# of images per study increased 10X in last 24 months) 3. Will lead to more computer aided detection and/or diagnosis ALL 3 drive demand for 256 compute power and for medical imaging, real slices time imaging, and functional imaging Opportunity for integration Image whole heart 128 of hardware in 1 rotation accelerators with CT devices and software 64 slices systems 32 slices 16 slices 2 slices 4 slices 8 slices slices Current CT Products Future CT Products

Decisions must be made in the face of an uncertain future

Improved forecasting helps sometimes, but many things cannot be forecast

Sometimes rapid response is necessary (and sufficient)

Risk can be reduced – and bought and sold (hedging) but at a cost

Challenge IBM wished to have a statistical tool to assist: Resource allocation and planning Risk assessment associated with recovery center operation Strategic decisions based on risk estimation

Solution Developed a probability-based tool to: Produce risk estimate for a particular resource over a long period Forecast a short-term risk for a particular location Assess contractual risk with a potential customer

Benefits Enabled strategic inventory control and resource management based on probabilistic risk estimation Estimate risk and profitability during contract negotiation

How can we make decisions in the face of an unpredictable future? Stochastic Optimization – consider many future scenarios Hedging – investment that reduces exposure to uncertain alternative future scenarios.

Require probability distributions for multiple stages of future scenarios

Results in very large, structured, optimization problems Examples Investment decisions in anticipation of natural disasters

Supply chain planning in anticipation of fluctuations of fuel prices

Changes in Prime Rate

0.3 0.5

0.2 Represent scenarios occurring in future time 0.2 periods up 0.2 Require quantization and 0.5 0.5 …

same probability estimates up 0.3 Get big quickly 0.3 Define structure for very 0.1 large optimization problems 0.5 …

0.4

Time 0 Time 1 Time 2

Cost function These become massive, but are structured

Constraints

Time period 0 1 2

Challenge Cut the cost of maintenance related field service Maintain a very high level of customer satisfaction Meet the contractual service level agreements

Solution Devised a multi objective continual optimization engine that assigns field workforce to service calls to:

Maximize customer satisfaction Minimize the cost of service delivery Continually optimize the schedule responding quickly to changing environment

Benefits In large scale pilot, customer satisfaction was improved significantly The utilization of the field workforce increased significantly, especially for workforce that services the high end products

Input Data Test Case A Test Case B Test Case C Items (SKUs) 504 156 14,350 Stocking Points 9,622 51,820 1,235,435 Supply Paths 18,740 103,587 2,413,808 Planning Periods 4 52 28 External Demand Forecasts 82,062 3,106,020 32,994,444 Networks 504 53 53,230

Application # of CPUs CPU Partition Optimization Time Optimization Time Optimization Time

Standard MIPO™ 4 N/A 00:03:11.000 00:55:00.000 05:41:38.000

(*) MIPO™ for Blue Gene/L 512 512x1 00:00:00.406 00:01:38.181 00:06:55.318

(*) MIPO™ for Blue Gene/L 1,024 32(VN)x16 - - 00:01:01.013 with Data Partitioning 8,192 512x16 - - 00:00:18.346

Total Optimization Phase Performance Improvement from 3 minutes to less from 55 minutes to 1.5 from 5 hours and 42 than 1 second minutes minutes to 1 (*) only ½ rack of Blue Gene® was utilized - from a maximum minute (or 18 of 32 racks seconds)

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons. ” Popular Mechanics, 1949 “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. ” Ken Olsen, founder of DEC, 1977

“640K ought to be enough for anybody. ” Bill Gates, 1981 “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future” Yogi Berra

IBM Corporation Computing, Business and

Operations Research

William Pulleyblank VP, Center for Business Optimization IBM