DOCSLIB.ORG

Fergana Range, Southern Kyrgyzstan

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Fergana Range, Southern Kyrgyzstan Effects of land use and vegetation changes on soil erosion of alpine grazing lands - Fergana Range, Southern Kyrgyzstan Kumulative Dissertation zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades der Naturwissenschaften an der Fakultät für Mathematik, Informatik und Naturwissenschaften Fachbereich Geowissenschaften der Universität Hamburg vorgelegt von Maksim Kulikov aus Zarafshon, Usbekistan Hamburg, 2018 Als Dissertation angenommen am Fachbereich Geowissenschaften Tag des Vollzugs der Promotion: 30.10.2018 Gutachter/Gutachterinnen: Prof. Dr. Udo Schickhoff Dr. Alexander Gröngröft Vorsitzender des Fachpromotionsausschusses Prof. Dr. Dirk Gajewski Geowissenschaften: Dekan der Fakultät MIN: Prof. Dr. Heinrich Graener "Hiermit versichere ich an Eides statt, dass ich die vorliegende Dissertation mit dem Titel: „Effects of land use and vegetation changes on soil erosion of alpine grazing lands - Fergana Range, Southern Kyrgyzstan“ selbstständig verfasst und keine anderen als die angegebenen Hilfsmittel – insbesondere keine im Quellenverzeichnis nicht benannten Internet-Quellen – benutzt habe. Alle Stellen, die wörtlich oder sinngemäß aus Veröffentlichungen entnommen wurden, sind als solche kenntlich gemacht. Ich versichere weiterhin, dass ich die Dissertation oder Teile davon vorher weder im In- noch im Ausland in einem anderen Prüfungsverfahren eingereicht habe und die eingereichte schriftliche Fassung der auf dem elektronischen Speichermedium entspricht.“ Hamburg, August 2018 Acknowledgements First, I would like to thank my supervisors Prof. Dr. Udo Schickhoff and Dr. Alexander Gröngröft, for their guidance and assistance through all these years of seemingly everlasting Ph.D. project. Their expertise, advices and motivation kept me working in the right direction. I am also very grateful to Dr. Elke Fischer, Dr. Olaf Conrad, Prof. Dr. Jürgen Böhner, Dr. Stefan Kern and Dr. Georgy Lazkov for their constant and tireless support, advices and expertise in the field, in the laboratory and with GIS, this entire endeavor would not be possible without them. I am also very appreciated to Niels Schwab, Peter Borchardt and Bolot Tagaev, the friends who granted me so much of their time and invaluable advices that their input into this work and my wellbeing cannot be overestimated. The big thanks and hugs go to my numerous office and mountain friends: Li, Jelena, Alina, Birgit, Anna, Julia, Janne, Sabrina, Lena, Eli, Franzi, Maria, Benni, Martin, Björn, Jan, Lars, Alex and many others for their small talks and large chats, offers here and there, their company at lunches and in bars, and for just being such wonderful people. Volkswagen Foundation, Hannover, Germany and Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst, Bonn, Germany are greatly appreciated for their financial support. Thank you very much to the entire SAGA team, Q GIS team, R team, Python team, NASA, USGS, SRTM, ASTER, DWD and ICDC, these wonderful software and data was the key stone of this work. I am very thankful to my parents, my brother, my wife and friends for their patience, constant support and not yawning at times, when I was carried away by talking what my work actually is and when it would be finished. List of figures Contents List of figures ....................................................................................................................... 2 List of tables ......................................................................................................................... 3 List of acronyms .................................................................................................................. 4 Zusammenfassung ................................................................................................................ 5 Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 8 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 10 2. Study area ................................................................................................................... 13 2.1 Climate ..................................................................................................................... 13 2.2 Vegetation ................................................................................................................ 19 2.3 Soils .......................................................................................................................... 26 2.4 Human impact .......................................................................................................... 29 3. Soil erosion modelling ................................................................................................ 33 3.1 USLE and its derivatives .......................................................................................... 33 3.2 GIS and soil loss modelling ..................................................................................... 37 3.3 Digital soil mapping ................................................................................................. 40 3.4 Soil sampling design and validation ......................................................................... 43 4. Modelling of climate and vegetation interactions ...................................................... 46 4.1 Review of climate and vegetation studies ................................................................ 49 4.2 Vegetation mapping and sampling design ............................................................... 53 5. Overview of original publications .............................................................................. 56 5.1 Article I .................................................................................................................... 56 5.2 Article II ................................................................................................................... 57 5.3 Article III .................................................................................................................. 58 5.4 Article IV .................................................................................................................. 59 6. Results ........................................................................................................................ 61 7. Conclusions and outlook ............................................................................................ 65 List of publications ............................................................................................................ 69 Oral presentations .............................................................................................................. 69 References .......................................................................................................................... 70 Attachment: Original publications ..................................................................................... 83 Article I .......................................................................................................................... 83 Article II ......................................................................................................................... 95 Article III ...................................................................................................................... 110 Article IV ...................................................................................................................... 130 1 List of figures List of figures Figure 1. Study area. .......................................................................................................... 14 Figure 2. Climatic zones (for details see Table 1). ............................................................ 16 Figure 3. Geobotanical regions of the first and second order, adopted from Vykhodtsev (1966) and Adyshev et al. (1987). The geobotanical regions of the first order are differentiated by colors, and those of the second order – by boundaries and their respective titles................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 4. Soil provinces and soil districts, adopted from Mamytov (1974) and Adyshev et al. (1987). The soil provinces are differentiated by colors, and soil districts – by boundaries and their respective titles. ................................................................................ 27 Figure 5. Spatial clusters of vegetation-climate interactions. ............................................ 63 2 List of tables List of tables Table 1. Characteristics of climatic zones (Iliasov et al. 2003). ........................................ 17 3 List of acronyms List of acronyms ARIMA - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARMA - Autoregressive Moving Average ASTER - Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer CAIAG - Central-Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences DEM – Digital Elevation Model DWD – Deutscher Wetterdienst EOF - Empirical Orthogonal Function FAO – Food and Agriculture Organization GDEM – Global Digital Elevation Map GDP - Gross Domestic Product GIS – Geographic Information System GPS – Global Positioning System ICDC - Integrated Climate Data Center KRSU – Kyrgyz Russian Slavic University LOESS - LOcally wEighted regreSsion Smoother MODIS - Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MUSLE – Modified Soil Loss Equation NASA - National Aeronautics and Space
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Conflicts on Irrigation Water in the South of the Kyrgyz Republic
    Conflicts on Irrigation Water in the South of the Kyrgyz Republic ACTED December, 2013 This report is made possible by the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the sole responsibility of the ACTED and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. Page | 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ....................................................................................................................................... 5 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ....................................................................................... 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 8 I. BACKGROUND INFORMATION .......................................................................................... 10 II. WATER CONFLICTS IN THE STUDY AREAS .................................................................. 15 III. CONFLICT TYPOLOGY ...................................................................................................... 21 IV. CONFLICT ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................ 26 1. Primary participants (individuals, institutions and groups), which are involved in disputes on irrigation water, their roles, influence and interaction .............................................................. 26 2. Underlying Drivers of Conflict ............................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Aksu-Zhabagly BIOSPHERE RESERVE National Commission Republic of Kazakhstan
    Aksu-Zhabagly BIOSPHERE RESERVE National Commission Republic of Kazakhstan Kazakhstan National Committee Kazakhstan National Committee for the UNESCO Programme “Man and Biosphere” MAB, Institute of Zoology, 93 al-Farabi Str. Almaty, 050060 KAZAKHSTAN Kazakhstan National Committee Aksu-Zhabagly Biosphere Reserve NominatioN PART I: SUMMARY 1. PROPOSED NAME OF THE BIOSPHERE RESERVE: Aksu-Zhabagly Biosphere Reserve 2. COUNTRY: Kazakhstan Aksu-Zhabagly 4 FULFILLMENT OF THE THREE FUNCTIONS OF BIOSPHERE RESERVES 3. «Conservation — contribute to the conservation of landscapes, ecosystems, species and genetic variation» 3. 1 Aksu-Zhabagly biosphere reserve is located in the Western end of Talasskiy Alatau and Southern part of Karatau in the West Tien Shan. The whole region of the West Tien Shan is an Eastern outpost of Mediterranean atmospheric circulation, therefore it has a winter-spring rainfall. The mountain range of the West Tien Shan is a barrier that catches the moisture in the Western transport of air masses; in addition, this region is situated within the zone of the Southern deserts, where the annual temperature sum is high and about 4000-5000o C. As a result, this area is the most favorable for vegetation and preservation of many ancient relict species and plant communities. Moreover, the reserve’s ecosystems have a very close relationship with the natural systems of the Near East and the Mediterranean than to the rest of the ecosystems of the Tien Shan. The territory of Aksu Zhabagly has a high degree of representativeness at regional level. For example, it has almost all landscape types and sub-types of the West Tien Shan, except for deserts and gypsophilous subshrub communities, which are well below the reserve in altitude.
    [Show full text]
  • Report on Position 3.1.1.3
    PROJECT Transboundary Water Management Adaptation in the Amu Darya Basin to Climate Change Uncertainties Work program item: 3.1 Make series of calculations for different scenario combinations (climate, water, hydropower regimes, innovations, water requirements) for 2016-2055 Report on position 3.1.1.3. Improving the ASBmm river model interface 3.1.2.8. Improving the ASBmm PZ model interface and integration of PZ model Project manager Prof. V.A.Dukhovniy Responsible for position A.G.Sorokin Executor R.Toshpulatov Tashkent 2017 Contents Introduction 1. Improving the ASBmm Interface 2. Integrating PZ model into ASBmm 3. Extending operational life of ASBmm Conclusion Annex Introduction Present report shows the results of work undertaken under the following tasks: • 3.1.1.3. “Improving the ASBmm river model interface” – choosing and customizing new scenarios (in line with the PEER Project requirements), changing modeling period, modifying interface in part of input data of the river model - WAm – adjustments to a new format and user data option, dates of putting new HEPS into operation, etc., • 3.1.2.8. “Improving the ASBmm PZ model interface and integration of PZ model - PZm” – changing data input-output forms, arranging access to the model (user’s work with the model), running routine implementing the model, testing PZ in ASBmm for the Amu Darya Basin. This work was done under guidance of Mr. A.Sorokin, who also provided the scenario data and WAm model structure. Adaptation of PZm to ASBmm was undertaken under supervision of R.Khafazov. Giver report consists of introduction, three sections showing major results of work, conclusion (findings and future tasks) and an annex with the tables and file structures.
    [Show full text]
  • Sacred Sites of the Southern Kyrgyzstan: Nature, Manas, Islam
    Aigine Cultural Research Center Sacred Sites of the Southern Kyrgyzstan: Nature, Manas, Islam Edited by Gulnara Aitpaeva Bishkek 2013 УДК 908 ББК 26.891 S 13 © Aigine Cultural Research Center, 2013 The research work and the publication was supported by The Christensen Fund, 260 Townsend St Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94107 USA Author of the project, Gulnara Aitpaeva Working group, Aibek Samakov, Cholponai U-G, Gulnara Aitpaeva, Kyial Tajieva and Meerim Aitkeeva Design by Cholponai U-G Photographs by the team of the Aigine CRC, Aibek Samakov, Cholponai U-G, Guljan Kudabaeva and Gulnara Aitpaeva Sacred Site of the Southern Kyrgyzstan: Nature, Manas and Islam, Aigine Cultural S 13 Research Center. – B.: 2013, 240 p. ISBN 978-9967-27-146-3 This publication is a result of the participatory research conducted by the Aigine CRC, together with traditional practitioners and experts, in Batken, Jalalabad and Osh provinces for the last three years. The first part of the book contains oral history of natural and historical sacred sites, as well as, sacred sites related to Manas and Islam. The second part of the book contains life stories on interconnection of people, sacred sites, animals, plants and the stars. Printed and bound in Kyrgyzstan by St.art Ltd. S 1805080000-13 УДК 908 ISBN 978-9967-27-146-3 ББК 26.891 CONTENTS Note from the Editor 4 Acknowledgements 5 Introduction 6 Part 1 Sacred Sites in the South of Kyrgyzstan 11 Chapter 1 Natural Sacred Sites . 11 Sacred Lakes . 12 Sacred Caves . 18 Sacred Mountains . 21 Sacred Springs . 22 Sacred Rocks .
    [Show full text]
  • 32. ALLIUM Linnaeus, Sp. Pl. 1: 294. 1753. 葱属 Cong Shu Xu Jiemei (许介眉); Rudolf V
    Flora of China 24: 165–202. 2000. 32. ALLIUM Linnaeus, Sp. Pl. 1: 294. 1753. 葱属 cong shu Xu Jiemei (许介眉); Rudolf V. Kamelin1 Caloscordum Herbert. Herbs perennial, bulbiferous, sometimes with well-developed, thick or thin rhizomes, rarely with stolons or tuberous roots, usually with onionlike, leeklike, or garliclike odor when fresh. Bulb covered with a tunic. Leaves sessile, very rarely narrowed into a petiole, with a closed leaf sheath at base, linear, linear-lanceolate, or lorate to orbicular-ovate, cross section flat, angled, or semiterete to terete, fistulose or solid. Scape terminal or lateral, sheathed or naked. Inflorescence a terminal umbel, sometimes with bulblets, rarely flowerless and with bulblets only, enclosed in a spathelike bract before anthesis. Pedicels with or without basal bracteoles. Flowers bisexual, very rarely degenerating into unisexual (when plants dioecious). Perianth segments free or united into a tube at base. Filaments usually connate at base and adnate to perianth segments, entire or toothed. Ovary with 1 to several ovules per locule; septa often containing nectaries opening by pores at base of ovary. Style simple; stigma entire or 3-cleft. Capsule loculicidal. Seeds black, rhomboidal or spheroidal. About 660 species: N hemisphere, mainly in Asia, some species in Africa and Central and South America; 138 species (50 endemic, five introduced) in China. Most Eurasian species have the base chromosome number x = 8, whereas North American species predominantly have x = 7. Nearly all species with x = 10 and 11 occur in SW China. Most species of Allium are edible, and some have long been cultivated in China and elsewhere, e.g., A.
    [Show full text]
  • Subgen. Rhinopetalum; Liliaceae) Is Described by Alexander Naumenko and Dimitri Zubov
    International Rock Gardener ISSN 2053-7557 Number 140 The Scottish Rock Garden Club August 2021 ---International Rock Gardener--- August 2021 In IRG 140 a new fritillary species from the Fergana Valley, southern Kyrgyzstan, Fritillaria rugillosa (subgen. Rhinopetalum; Liliaceae) is described by Alexander Naumenko and Dimitri Zubov. Dr Zubov, of the State Institute for Genetic and Regenerative Medicine, National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine; Kyiv, Ukraine, is already familiar to IRG readers for his plant articles and species descriptions – he is also known for his medical science papers, of course. Alexander Naumenko opened the Nova Zahrada nursery in Mořice, in Central Moravia (Czech Republic) in the spring of 2014. He had begun to grow his plant collection fifteen years earlier, in Kyrgyzstan, in Central Asia. In 2012, Alexander wrote, with Dr. Sci. Georgy A. Lazkov, "Растения Кыргызстана" ("Plants of Kyrgyzstan") It contains images of 100 native plants of Kyrgyzstan. Each plant has its Latin name given and a short botanical description in Russian. The second article this month is Patagonian Verbenas - Junellia ( part 1) by Martin Sheader, a marine biologist from Southampton, who is known for a great interest in all plants, particularly those from South America, as well as for his writing, talks and show exhibits. Dr Sheader has travelled extensively in this part of South America and his book ‘Flowers of the Patagonian Mountains’ is the most comprehensive photographic guide yet published to the area’s diverse and fascinating flora. In a foreword to the book, Professor Sir Ghillean Prance FRS, VMH writes enthusiastically about the book, commenting that it is ‘ ..a thoroughly researched botanical field guide based on a huge amount of experience in the field by the authors.
    [Show full text]
  • Botanica Pacifica
    Russian Academy of Sciences, Far Eastern Branch Botanical Garden-Institute botanica pacifica A journal of plant science and conservation Volume 9, No. 1 2020 VLADIVOSTOK 2020 Botanica Pacifica. A journal of plant science and conservation. 2020. 9(1): 131–138 DOI: 10.17581/bp.2020.09114 Addition to the flora of Kyrgyzstan Alexey A. Kechaykin1*, Georgy A. Lazkov2, Alexander I. Shmakov1 & Sardor A. Usmanov1 Alexey A. Kechaykin1* ABSTRACT e-mail: [email protected] The paper proposes new data and contributions related to distribution of some Georgy A. Lazkov2 species from the family Rosaceae in Kyrgyzstan. Five species of the genus Potentilla e-mail: [email protected] are newly recorded for the flora of Kyrgyzstan, of which Potentilla tuvinica is a new taxon for the Tian Shan Mountain Range. One species from the genus Fragarias- Alexander I. Shmakov1 trum and one from the genus Sibbaldia, as well as 16 species of Potentilla have been e-mail: [email protected] indicated for some biogeographic regions of Kyrgyzstan for the first time. The Sardor A. Usmanov1 area of distribution of Potentilla ferganensis is specified, and data on distribution of Potentilla tobolensis are supplemented. Specific habitats are reported forPotentilla exuta and Potentilla penniphylla described from Kyrgyzstan, but not included in the lists of plants growing in this territory. For each species presented, the general distribution 1 outside Kyrgyzstan is indicated. The endemism of the genus Potentilla in the study Altai State University, Barnaul, Russia area is analyzed. For Potentilla biflora, a nomenclature correction is provided. A map 2 Institute for Biology and Soil Science, of the biogeographic regions of Kyrgyzstan is presented.
    [Show full text]
  • Simulating Water Resource Availability Under Data Scarcity—A Case Study for the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia)
    Water 2014, 6, 3270-3299; doi:10.3390/w6113270 OPEN ACCESS water ISSN 2073-4441 www.mdpi.com/journal/water Article Simulating Water Resource Availability under Data Scarcity—A Case Study for the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia) Iuliia Radchenko 1,*, Lutz Breuer 1, Irina Forkutsa 2 and Hans-Georg Frede 1 1 Landscape, Water and Biogeochemical Cycles, Research Center for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26-32, Giessen 35392, Germany; E-Mails: [email protected] (L.B.); [email protected] (H.-G.F.) 2 Center for International Development and Environmental Research (ZEU), Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Senckenbergstr. 3, Giessen 35390, Germany; E-Mail: [email protected] * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]; Tel.: +49-641-99-37382; Fax: +49-641-99-37389. External Editor: Richard Skeffington Received: 17 June 2014; in revised form: 29 September 2014 / Accepted: 14 October 2014 / Published: 30 October 2014 Abstract: Glaciers and snowmelt supply the Naryn and Karadarya rivers, and about 70% of the water available for the irrigated agriculture in the Ferghana Valley. Nineteen smaller catchments contribute the remaining water mainly from annual precipitation. The latter will gain importance if glaciers retreat as predicted. Hydrological models can visualize such climate change impacts on water resources. However, poor data availability often hampers simulating the contributions of smaller catchments. We tested several data pre-processing methods (gap filling, MODAWEC (MOnthly to DAily WEather Converter), lapse rate) and their effect on the performance of the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning)-light model.
    [Show full text]
  • Andrea Topalovic-Arthan
    Wildflower meadows of Kyrgyzstan A tour of Kyrgyzstan between 18th June and 4th July 2018 Andrea Topalovic Arthan Contents About the author .................................................................................................................... 5 Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................. 5 Aims and objectives .............................................................................................................. 6 Summary of locations visited ................................................................................................. 6 Itinerary ................................................................................................................................. 7 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 8 Overview of the flora of Kyrgyzstan ......................................................................................14 Climate .................................................................................................................................15 North-east Kyrgyzstan ..........................................................................................................16 Chong Kemin National Park .................................................................................................16 Chong Kemin Valley .............................................................................................................21
    [Show full text]
  • United Nations ___Economic Commission for Europe Use of Clean, Renewable And/Or Alternative Energy Technologies In
    1 UNITED NATIONS _____________ ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DIVISION USE OF CLEAN, RENEWABLE AND/OR ALTERNATIVE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES IN RURAL DISTRICTS OF KYRGYZSTAN Shamil Dikambaev Bishkek 2015 2 Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3 1. Assessment of proposed decisions for autonomous and network access to power services in rural and remote districts of Kyrgyzstan ...................................................................................................................... 5 1.1. General description of power generation and consumption ............................................................ 5 in Kyrgyzstan ................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.2. Issues of power supply to rural and remote districts of Kyrgyzstan .................................................... 10 1.3. Assessment of using renewable power technologies for rural districts of Kyrgyzstan in the current conditions .................................................................................................................................................... 20 2. Assessment of political measures, advanced practices and business models for support of rendering sustainable power services in the rural areas of Kyrgyzstan ...................................................................... 26 3.
    [Show full text]
  • A Review of the Paralasa Jordana-Complex from Central Asia with Descriptions of New Taxa 120-144 Atalanta 43 (1/2): 120-144, Würzburg (2012), ISSN 0171-0079
    ZOBODAT - www.zobodat.at Zoologisch-Botanische Datenbank/Zoological-Botanical Database Digitale Literatur/Digital Literature Zeitschrift/Journal: Atalanta Jahr/Year: 2012 Band/Volume: 43 Autor(en)/Author(s): Churkin Sergei V., Pletnev Vladimir A. Artikel/Article: A review of the Paralasa jordana-complex from Central Asia with descriptions of new taxa 120-144 Atalanta 43 (1/2): 120-144, Würzburg (2012), ISSN 0171-0079 A review of the Paralasa jordana-complex from Central Asia with descriptions of new taxa (Lepidoptera, Satyridae) by SERGEI V. CHURKIN & VLADIMIR A. PLETNE V received 11.X.2011 Summary: The review includes all taxa belonging to the Paralasa jordana-complex of species. The lectotypes of 4 taxa are designated. Three new subspecies are described: P. jordana kipnisi subspec. nov. (Peter the Great Range, Gardani-Kaftar Pass), P. jordana khramovi subspec. nov. (North-East Alai, Ak-Bura R.), and P. kusnezovi bosbutaensis subspec. nov. (West Tian-Shan, Bosbu- Too Mts.). Field studies confirm that the complex consists of 3 species (at least) and 16 subspecies,. The relations between them are discussed in detail. Резюме: Обзор включает все таксоны, входящие в Paralasa jordana-комплекс. Выделены лектотипы 4 таксонов. Описано три новых подвида - P. jordana khramovi subspec. nov. (хр. Петра Первого, пер. Гардани-Кафтар), P. jordana khramovi subspec. nov. (северо-восточный Алай, р. Ак-Бура) и P. kusnezovi bosbutaensis subspec. nov. (Зап. Тянь-Шань, хр. Бозбу-Тоо). Результаты полевых исследований подтверждают деление комплекса на 3 вида (как минимум) и 16 подвидов, взаимоотношения между которыми тщательно проанализирована. Key words: Paralasa, jordana, kusnezovi, kolesnichenkoi, helios, roxane, Lepidoptera, new taxon, Rhopalocera, Tian-Shan, Alai, Pamirs, Ghissar, glacial period.
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Runoff Variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779 to 2015, Inferred from Tree Rings 1Panyushkina I.P., 1Meko D.M
    Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779 to 2015, inferred from tree rings 1Panyushkina I.P., 1Meko D.M., 2,3Macklin M.G., 4Toonen W.H.J., 5 Mukhamаdiev N.S, 6Konovalov V.G., 5Ashikbaev N.Z, 5Sagitov A.O. 1Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona 1215 E. Lowell St., Tucson, AZ, 85721 USA 2 School of Geography and Lincoln Centre for Water and Planetary Health University of Lincoln, LN6 7TS Lincoln, United Kingdom 3Innovative River Solutions, Institute of Agriculture and Environment Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, 4222 New Zealand 4Dept. Geography and Earth Sciences, Aberystwyth University Llandinam Building, Penglais Campus, SY23 3DB Aberystwyth, United Kingdom 5 Z.H. Zhiembaev Research Institute of Plant Protections and Quarantine, Kazybek Bi 1, Almaty, 050070 Kazakhstan 6RAN Institute of Geography Staromonetnyi Pereulok 29, Moscow, 119017 Russia Corresponding author: Irina Panyushkina Email: [email protected] Phone: +1 520 245 730 1 Abstract Long highly-resolved proxies for runoff are in high demand for hydrological forecasts and water management in arid Central Asia. An accurate (R2=0.53) reconstruction of October-September discharge of the Ili River in Kazakhstan, 1779-2015, is developed from moisture-sensitive tree rings of spruce sampled in the Tian Shan Mountains. The fivefold extension of the gauged discharge record represents the variability of runoff in the Lake Balkhash Basin for the last 235 years. The reconstruction shows a 40 yr long interval of low discharge preceded a recent high peak in the first decade of the 2000s followed by a decline to more recent levels of discharge not seen since the start of the gauged record.
    [Show full text]