Transparency and Campaign Spending in , Report 3: State Spending*

Kathryn Pearson Associate Professor Department of Political Science University of Minnesota [email protected]

Lawrence R. Jacobs Mondale Chair Humphrey School of Public Affairs University of Minnesota [email protected]

November 3, 2018

* This is a project of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota. We are grateful for the contributions of Madeline Salucka and Matthew Motta. The authors are solely responsible for the content of this report. Other parties who use or draw conclusions from this research are solely responsible for their own views, which do not necessarily reflect those of the original authors. This research is supported by a grant from the McKnight Foundation.

1

Executive Summary

 Nearly $34 million has flowed into Minnesota’s campaigns for Governor, Attorney General, and Statehouse. This is on top of the huge spending on federal elections – likely to top $100 million.

 Overall spending to support DFL candidates for state government is greater than overall spending for GOP candidates, largely due to Tim Walz’s advantage over Jeff Johnson in the gubernatorial campaign. Keith Ellison also enjoys a spending edge over Doug Wardlow in the Attorney General race. Page 4.

 Republican candidates have a financial advantage over DFL candidates in the battle for control of the Minnesota House of Representatives, particularly in the most competitive races.

Of the 23 battleground statehouse races, GOP candidates are outspending their DFL counterparts in 16 districts, including 12 districts where GOP candidates have an advantage of $40,000 or more. GOP candidates are outspending the DFL even in 13 of the 15 districts that Democrats targeted as pick-up opportunities. Page 14.

 Independent expenditures from parties, groups, corporations, unions, and associations are flooding Minnesota, helping to create disparities in spending for DFL and GOP candidates. Page 5.

Independent expenditures (IEs) account for a majority of overall spending on the Governor, Attorney General, and statehouse races.

 Big donors dominate the gubernatorial contest. The majority of money in both candidates’ campaign coffers comes from individual checks of over $500. Page 12.

The campaign finance data used for this analysis come from Minnesota's Campaign Finance Board, covering the period of January 1, 2018 through October 29, 2018. The authors analyzed and compiled contributions received by candidates from all sources, including individuals, parties, and PACs, in addition to data on all of the independent expenditures made in each race.

2 A Lot of Money

Nearly $34 million has flowed into Minnesota’s campaigns for Governor, Attorney General, and Statehouse (see Figure 1). It is likely that at least another $100 million will be spent on Minnesota elections for US Senate and Congress.

Overall spending to support DFL candidates for state government is greater than for GOP candidates

Figure 1 shows that spending to support DFL candidates for Governor, Attorney General, and the Statehouse is nearly $10 million greater than for GOP candidates.

Much of this advantage is due to the lopsided spending advantage for Tim Walz over Jeff Johnson in the gubernatorial race (over $9 million).

Support for the DFL candidate for Attorney General (Keith Ellison) is greater than for his opponent (Doug Wardlow) by almost $1.2 million

GOP candidates for the statehouse enjoy a comparatively narrow spending advantage of just over $450,000. (The GOP advantage has narrowed since September.)

3 Figure 1. Overall Spending in Support of General Election Candidates Since January 1, 2018 $22,000,000 $21,908,946 $20,000,000 $18,000,000 $16,000,000 $14,000,000 $13,471,532 $12,000,000 $12,049,828 $10,000,000 GOP $8,000,000 AmountRaised $6,915,444 $6,433,031 $6,000,000 DFL $4,304,504 $4,000,000 $2,004,383 $2,000,000 $829,880 $0 Overall Spending Johnson/Walz Wardlow/Ellison Minnesota House $33,958,774 $17,776,036 $2,834,264 $13,348,475

*Independent expenditures include spending for the candidates and against their opponents

4 Independent expenditures by parties, groups, corporations, unions, and associations are flooding Minnesota, helping to create disparities in spending for DFL and GOP candidates.

Independent expenditures (IEs) account for a majority of overall spending on state races. Independent expenditures are unlimited, and they are made without coordination with the candidates or their campaigns. By contrast, party, political action committees, individual, other, and public subsidy contributions are direct contributions to candidates’ campaigns and limited by law.

Independent expenditure groups in support of Walz and Ellison were far greater than IE support for their rivals, while IE groups propelled the spending advantage for GOP candidates for statehouse contests.

Figure 2 shows that 59% of the overall spending on DFL candidates came from IEs and 51% for GOP candidates.

Figure 2. Independent expenditures and individual campaign contributions are the biggest source of overall spending for state offices. Sources of Candidate Support - General Election Candidates $22,000,000 $20,000,000 $18,000,000 $16,000,000 59% $14,000,000 Independent Expenditures $12,000,000 Party Contributions $10,000,000 51% 2% PAC Contributions

$8,000,000 4% AmountRaised $6,000,000 2% 4% Contributions from Individuals $4,000,000 28% 33% Other Contributions $2,000,000 3% 2% $0 7% 5% Public Subsidy GOP DFL $12,049,828 $21,908,946 *Independent expenditures includes spending for the candidates and against their opponents

5

Figure 3. Top groups making independent expenditures Groups making independent expenditures*

GOP Total Spent Freedom Club State PAC $1,656,799 HRCC $885,356 Pro Jobs Majority $866,060 Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC $827,625 Housing First Fund $601,500

DFL Alliance for a Better Minnesota Action Fund $4,290,503 MN Victory PAC $2,763,805 MN DFL State Central Committee $2,475,312 Planned Parenthood of Minnesota Political Action Fund $778,020 Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund Minnesota $445,243

*Does not include $90,253 spent by liberal-leaning Alliance for Jobs Political Action Committee against Tim Walz before the primary

Figure 4 shows that 71% of spending to support Walz comes from independent expenditure groups, greatly increasing his spending advantage over Johnson (only 45% of his support comes from IEs).

Figure 4. Walz receives far more of his funding from independent expenditures Sources of Candidate Support - Governor $14,000,000

$12,000,000

$10,000,000 71% Independent Expenditures $8,000,000 Party Contributions $6,000,000 PAC Contributions

AmountRaised $4,000,000 Contributions from Individuals 45% 2% Other Contributions $2,000,000 3% 22% 41% Public Subsidy 2% 1% $0 8% 4% Jeff Johnson Tim Walz $4,304,504 $13,471,532

*Independent expenditures include spending for the candidates and against their opponents

6 Figure 5 shows that 54% of spending to support Ellison comes from independent expenditure groups, fueling his spending advantage over Wardlow (only 4% of his support comes from IEs).

Figure 5. Ellison receives far more of his funding from independent expenditures Sources of Candidate Support - Attorney General $2,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 54% Independent Expenditures $1,200,000 $1,000,000 Party Contributions 3% $800,000 2% 4% 2% PAC Contributions

AmountRaised $600,000 Contributions from Individuals 38% $400,000 82% Other Contributions $200,000 .04% $0 9% 1% 5% Public Subsidy Doug Wardlow Keith Ellison $829,880 $2,004,383

*Independent expenditures include spending for the candidates and against their opponents

7 Figure 6 shows that 60% of spending to support GOP statehouse candidates comes from independent expenditure groups, helping to account for their spending advantage over DFL candidates (only 33% of their support comes from IEs).

Figure 6. GOP statehouse candidates receive far more of their funding from independent expenditures Sources of Candidate Support - Minnesota House $7,000,000 $6,000,000 33% $5,000,000 60% Independent Expenditures $4,000,000 6% 9% Party Contributions $3,000,000 4% PAC Contributions 5% AmountRaised $2,000,000 40% Contributions from Individuals 23% $1,000,000 Other Contributions 3% 3% 10% $0 5% Public Subsidy GOP DFL $6,915,444 $6,433,031

*Independent expenditures include spending for the candidates and against their opponents

8 In-state spending supports gubernatorial and statehouse races

Around three quarters of contributions to the Walz and Johnson campaigns originates within Minnesota, according to Figure 7.

Figure 7. Most contributions to the gubernatorial candidates come from Minnesota Contributions to Gubenatorial Candidates by State Origin $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 74% $1,500,000 75% In-State

AmountRaised $1,000,000 5% Out-of-State $500,000 5% 21% Unknown Origin** 20% $0 Jeff Johnson Tim Walz $1,974,518 $3,367,329

*Does not include public subsidies or independent expenditures **Most unknown origin contributions are unitemized contributions, which do not require information on the contributor to be reported

9 Minnesota contributors account for the majority of contributions to statehouse races by Republicans (53%) and Democrats (52%), according to Figure 8.

Figure 8. Most contributions to the statehouse races comes from Minnesota Contributions to House Candidates by State Origin $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 52% $2,500,000 $2,000,000 53% 5% $1,500,000 In-State

AmountRaised $1,000,000 4% Out-of-State 43% $500,000 44% Unknown Origin** $0 GOP DFL $2,400,682 $3,684,402

*Does not include public subsidies or independent expenditures **Most unknown origin contributions are unitemized contributions, which do not require information on the contributor to be reported

10 Out-of-state contributors are an important source of Ellison’s funds (28%), whereas only 9% of Wardlow’s contributions come from outside Minnesota. See Figure 9

Figure 9. Most of Wardlow’s support comes from Minnesota sources Contributions to Attorney General Candidates by State Origin $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 33% $600,000 48% $500,000 28% $400,000 In-State $300,000 9% AmountRaised Out-of-State $200,000 42% 39% $100,000 Unknown Origin** $0 Doug Wardlow Keith Ellison $721,124 $826,200

*Does not include public subsidies or independent expenditures **Most unknown origin contributions are unitemized contributions, which do not require information on the contributor to be reported

11 Big Checks Dominate Gubernatorial Candidates’ Coffers

Walz and Johnson raise most of their campaign money from individuals contributing over $500. These large contributions fund 60% of Walz’s campaign funds and 63% of Wardlow’s, according to Figure 10.

Smaller donations of less than $200 account for the majority or plurality of the candidates’ funds in the Attorney General and Statehouse races, as shown in Figures 11 and 12.

Figure 10. Checks of over $500 fund the gubernatorial candidates’ campaigns Donations to Gubernatorial Candidates from Individuals $3,000,000

$2,500,000

$2,000,000 60%

Donations $501+ $1,500,000 63% Donations $201-$500

AmountRaised $1,000,000 18% Donations $0-$200

$500,000 15% 23% 22% $0 Jeff Johnson Tim Walz $1,759,297 $2,905,241

12 Figure 11. Donations of less than $200 comprise the majority or plurality of the candidates’ coffers Donations to Attorney General Candidates from Individuals $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 40% 37% $500,000 Donations $501+ $400,000 18% 19% Donations $201-$500 $300,000

AmountRaised Donations $0-$200 $200,000 44% 41% $100,000 $0 Doug Wardlow Keith Ellison $679,316 $765,625

Figure 12. Donations of less than $200 fund the majority of statehouse candidates’ campaign coffers Donations to House Candidates from Individuals $3,000,000

$2,500,000 22% $2,000,000 20% Donations $501+ $1,500,000 23% Donations $201-$500 23% AmountRaised $1,000,000 Donations $0-$200 58% $500,000 54%

$0 GOP DFL $1,607,934 $2,555,721

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GOP candidates for Minnesota House of Representatives are receiving more campaign support than DFL candidates

There are 23 battleground statehouse races, according to party documents and interviews with party officials and consultants.

 GOP candidates are outspending their DFL counterparts in 16 of the 23 battleground districts and by large margins in 12 districts of $40,000 or more.  Even for the 15 districts that the DFL targeted as pick-up opportunities, 13 of the GOP candidates received more support, 10 by large margins  DFL candidates outspent their GOP rivals in only 5 of the 23 battleground districts.

Table 1. GOP candidates are outspending DFL candidates in more state House races Incumbent holding seat Party targeting district Reason district Party with greater campaign targeted spending $10K; 40K or more; Even 3A Rob Eckland (DFL Incumbent) GOP targeting Trump won DFL 4B (DFL Incumbent) GOP targeting Trump won DFL 5A (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Top 2016 race that is GOP still targeted 11A (DFL Incumbent) GOP targeting Clinton won with less GOP than 50% 14B Jim Knoblach (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Trump won with less DFL than 50% 19A Clark Johnson (DFL Incumbent) GOP targeting Trump won DFL 20B David Bly (DFL not running in GOP targeting Clinton won with less GOP 2018) than 50% 33B Cindy Pugh (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Clinton won GOP 34B Dennis Smith (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Clinton won DFL 37A (DFL Incumbent) GOP targeting Trump won GOP 38B Matt Dean (GOP Incumbent and DFL targeting Trump won with less GOP not running in 2018) than 50% 42A Randy Jessup (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Clinton won GOP 44A Sarah Anderson (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Clinton won GOP 48B Jennifer Loon (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Clinton won X 48A (DFL Incumbent) GOP targeting Won by only 3.48% in GOP 2016 49A Cario Anselmo (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Clinton won GOP 52B Regina Barr (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Clinton won GOP 53B Kelly Fenton (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Clinton won GOP 54A Keith Franklin (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Clinton won GOP 56A Drew Christensen (GOP DFL targeting Clinton won GOP Incumbent) 56B Roz Peterson (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Clinton won GOP 57A Erin Maye-Quade (DFL GOP targeting Clinton won with less Missing disclosure Incumbent and not running in 2018) than 50% 57B Anna Wills (GOP Incumbent) DFL targeting Clinton won GOP

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Out of all the 134 seats up for election in 2018, DFL candidates receive more support than their GOP rivals in more contests (Figure 13). However, support for GOP candidates is better targeted at the most competitive races, while politically safe DFL incumbents are receiving ample support.

Figure 13. A Comparison of Candidate and Opponent Support by Distict 60 50 40 30 20

Numberof Districts 10 0 GOP outspend DFL DFL outspend GOP GOP & DFL spending comparable* *Spending is comparable if the candidates in a race spendi within $10,000 of each other even if one of the candidates has not raised any money or had indepndent expenditures benefitting them **Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and ag

15 House District 3A

Ecklund has held the seat since a special election in 2015 when he won with 63% of the vote compared to the 19% and 16% of his Republican and Independent opponents, respectively. Both Ecklund and Goutermont ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. All of the independent expenditures benefitting Goutermout come from spending by the MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund against Ecklund. The independent expenditures benefitting Ecklund come from spending by DFL House Caucus, Education Minnesota, and MN DFL State Central Committee for Ecklund.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 3A $120,000

$100,000

$80,000 Independent Expenditures

$60,000 75% Party Contributions PAC Contributions $40,000 AmountRaised Contributions from Individuals 4% $20,000 58% 1% Other Contributions 15% 30% 3% $0 10% 5% Public Subsidy Randy Goutermout (GOP) (DFL) $30,866 $102,647

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 3A is in northeastern Minnesota. Barack Obama won the district in 2012 with 55% of the vote whereas Donald Trump won in 2016 with 50%.

16 House District 4B

Marquart has held the seat since 2000 (9B from 2000-2012). Marquart and Peterson both ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. All of the independent expenditures benefitting Peterson come from HRCC and MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Funding spending against Marquart. The independent expenditures benefitting Marquart come from spending by Education Minnesota, MN AFL-CIO, the MN DFL State Central Committee, Housing First Fund, and Pro Jobs Majority spending for him.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 4B $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 40% $30,000 Independent Expenditures $25,000 6% Party Contributions $20,000 64% PAC Contributions $15,000 23% AmountRaised Contributions from Individuals $10,000 4% 20% 20% Other Contributions $5,000 1% 10% $0 12% Public Subsidy Jason Peterson (GOP) Paul Marquart (DFL) $26,053 $39,278

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 4B is in northwestern Minnesota. Mitt Romney won the district in 2012 with 51% of the vote and Donald Trump won in 2016 with 57%.

17 House District 5A

Persell had held the seat from 2008-2016 when Bliss defeated him by 13.9%. Both Bliss and Persell ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. The independent expenditures benefitting Bliss come from spending by the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC and Pro Jobs Majority both for Bliss and against Persell with MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund and HRCC also spending against Persell. The independent expenditures benefitting Persell come from spending by Alliance for a Better Minnesota, MN AFL-CIO, and SEIU Minnesota State Council for him.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 5A $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 Independent Expenditures $80,000 71% Party Contributions $60,000 PAC Contributions 19% AmountRaised $40,000 16% Contributions from Individuals 8% 19% $20,000 6% Other Contributions 12% 35% 1% 4% $0 3% 8% Public Subsidy Matt Bliss (GOP) (DFL) $118,475 $51,487

*Indpendent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 5A is in northern Minnesota. Barack Obama won the district in 2012 with 52% of the vote whereas Donald Trump won in 2016 with 52%.

18 House District 11A

Sundin has held the seat since 2012 when he won 64% of the vote compared to the 30% and 6% of his Republican and Independent opponents, respectively. Dotseth and Sundin both ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. The independent expenditures benefitting Dotseth come from spending by the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC both for Dotseth and against Sundin and spending by MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund and Pro Jobs Majority spending against Sundin.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 11A $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 59% Independent Expenditures $20,000 Party Contributions $15,000 PAC Contributions

AmountRaised 32% $10,000 22% Contributions from Individuals 36% $5,000 10% 1% Other Contributions 31% $0 8% Public Subsidy Jeff Dotseth (GOP) Mike Sundin (DFL) $35,900 $14,512

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 11A is in northeastern Minnesota. Barack Obama won the district with 62% of the vote in 2012 and Hillary Clinton won in 2016 with 47%.

19 House District 14B

Knoblach has held the seat since 2014 when he defeated the incumbent, Zach Dorholt (DFL) by 2.66%. Knoblach and both ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. A majority of the independent expenditures benefitting Knoblach come from spending by Pro Jobs Majority supporting him with some additional spending by MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund against Wolgamott. Most of the independent expenditures supporting Wolgamott come from independent expenditures made by the DFL House Caucus and the MN DFL State Central Committee supporting him with Education Minnesota and MN AFL-CIO also spending for him. Additionally, the MN DFL State Central Committee made independent expenditures against Knoblach.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 14B $140,000

$120,000

$100,000 56% Independent Expenditures $80,000 17% Party Contributions 9% 2% $60,000 PAC Contributions 4% AmountRaised 6% Contributions from Individuals $40,000 56% Other Contributions $20,000 30% Public Subsidy 17% 1% $0 3% Jim Knoblach (GOP) Dan Wolgamott (DFL) $86,480 $121,743

*Independent expenditures include spending for the candidates and against their opponents

District 14B is in central Minnesota and includes parts of St. Cloud. Barack Obama won the district in 2012 with 53% of the vote whereas Donald Trump won in 2016 with 47% of the vote.

20 House District 19A

Clark Johnson (DFL) has held the seat since a special election in 2013, but is not seeking re- election in 2018. Spears ran against Johnson in 2014 and 2016. Spears and Brand both ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. The independent expenditures benefitting Spears come from spending by the Coalition of MN Businesses IEPC both for Spears and against Brand and spending by MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund, Pro Jobs Majority, and HRCC against Brand. Housing First Fund for Spears also made independent expenditures for Spears. The independent expenditures benefitting Brand come from spending by the DFL House Caucus and MN DFL State Central Committee both for Spears and against Brand. Additionally, Education Minnesota, MN AFL-CIO, and SEIU Minnesota State Council all made independent expenditures for Brand.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 19A $160,000.00 $140,000.00 $120,000.00 $100,000.00 Independent Expenditures 63% $80,000.00 Party Contributions 66% $60,000.00 PAC Contributions

AmountRaised 2% $40,000.00 8% Contributions from Individuals 4% 2% 18% Other Contributions $20,000.00 23% 7% $0.00 3% 1% 3% Public Subsidy Kim Spears (GOP) (DFL) $100,862 $137,034

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 19A is in southern Minnesota. Barack Obama won the district in 2012 with 53% whereas Donald Trump won in 2016 with 48%.

21 House District 20B

David Bly (DFL) has held the seat since 2006, but is not seeking re-election in 2018. Gare and Lippert both ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. The independent expenditures benefitting Gare come from spending by Pro Jobs Majority and the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC for both for Gare and against Lippert, Housing First Fund spending for Gare, and HRCC spending against Lippert. The independent expenditures benefitting Lippert come from spending by the DFL House Caucus both for Lippert and against Gare. Additionally, the MN DFL State Central Committee and SEIU Minnesota State Council also spent for Lippert.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 20B $250,000

$200,000 Independent Expenditures $150,000 Party Contributions 90% $100,000 PAC Contributions

AmountRaised 20% Contributions from Individuals $50,000 8% 62% Other Contributions 4% 1% $0 3% 8% 3% Public Subsidy Josh Gare (GOP) (DFL) $204,469 $72,432

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 20B is in southeastern Minnesota. Barack Obama won in the district with 54% of the vote in 2012 and Hillary Clinton won in 2016 with 47%.

22 House District 33B

Pugh has held the seat since 2012 when she defeated Denise Bader (DFL) for the open seat by 8.8%. Both Pugh and Morrison ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. The independent expenditures benefitting Pugh come from spending by Freedom Club State PAC for her and by HRCC both for Pugh and against Morrison. The independent expenditures benefitting Morrison come from spending by Everytown for Gun Safety both for Morrison and against Pugh.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 33B $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 13% $120,000 2% Independent Expenditures 68% $100,000 Party Contributions $80,000 PAC Contributions $60,000 77% AmountRaised 4% Contributions from Individuals $40,000 4% Other Contributions $20,000 17% 2% 4% $0 3% 4% Public Subsidy Cindy Pugh (GOP) (DFL) $160,346 $142,261

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 33B is in the western Twin Cities area. Mitt Romney won the district in 2012 with 55% of the vote whereas Hillary Clinton won the district with 46%.

23 House District 34B

Smith has held the seat since 2014 since he defeated David Hoden (DFL) for the open seat by 12.9%. Smith and Bahner both ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. All of the independent expenditures benefitting Smith come from spending by Housing First Fund for him and by the HRCC and MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund against Bahner. The independent expenditures benefitting Bahner come from spending by the DFL House Caucus, Driving MN, Everytown for Gun Safety, and MN DFL State Central Committee for Bahner and against Smith. Additionally, Alliance for a Better Minnesota, Education Minnesota, Outfront MN, and SEIU Minnesota State Council all spent for Bahner.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 34B $250,000

$200,000 Independent Expenditures $150,000 60% Party Contributions $100,000 PAC Contributions 99% 3% AmountRaised Contributions from Individuals $50,000 33% Other Contributions

$0 3%.04% Public Subsidy Dennis Smith (GOP) (DFL) $181,289 $219,351 *Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 34B is in the western Twin Cities area. Mitt Romney won the district in 2012 with 52% whereas Hillary Clinton won in 2016 with 48%.

24 House District 37A

Koegel has held the seat since 2016 when she defeated Wilder by 2.68% with Libertarian Brian McCormick garnering 8.2% of the vote. Both ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC made independent expenditures both for Wilder and against Koegel and Housing First Fund also made independent expenditures for Wilder. Pro Jobs Majority, HRCC, and MN Jobs Coalition Legislative fund all made independent expenditures against Koegel. The independent expenditures supporting Koegel come from spending by the DFL House Caucus and MN DFL State Central Committee both for Koegel and against Wilder. Education Minnesota, MN AFL-CIO, SEIU Minnesota State Council, and Sierra Club all made independent expenditures for Koegel.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 37A $300,000

$250,000

$200,000 Independent Expenditures

$150,000 Party Contributions 96% PAC Contributions $100,000 AmountRaised 71% Contributions from Individuals $50,000 Other Contributions 9% 2% 4% 11% $0 2% Public Subsidy Anthony Wilder (GOP) Erin Koegel (DFL) $240,307 $118,100

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 37A is a northern suburban district covering areas in Coon Rapids, Blaine, and Spring Lake Park. Barack Obama won in 2012 with 53% of the vote whereas Donald Trump narrowly won in 2016 with 46% to Hillary Clinton’s 45%.

25 House District 38B

Republican Matt Dean held the seat since 2004, but entered the gubernatorial race in 2018 leaving the seat open. Patti Anderson and , who previously challenged Dean in 2016, both ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. Independent expenditures supporting Anderson come from spending by the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC both for Anderson and against Wazlawik. Housing First Fund and Pro Jobs Majority both made independent expenditures for Anderson. Additionally, HRCC and MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund spend against Wazlawik.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 38B $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 Independent Expenditures $200,000 80% Party Contributions $150,000 PAC Contributions

AmountRaised $100,000 Contributions from Individuals .04% $50,000 2% 10% Other Contributions 15% 14% 3% 64% $0 2% 11% Public Subsidy Patti Anderson (GOP) Ami Wazlawik (DFL) $292,178 $53,953

*Independent expenditures include spending for the candidates and against their opponents

District 38B is northeast of Minneapolis covering areas of White Bear Lake. Mitt Romney won the district with 52% of the vote while Trump narrowly won in 2016 with 47% of the vote compared to Hillary Clinton’s 45%.

26

House District 42A

Jessup has held the seat since 2016 when he defeated DFL incumbent Barb Yarusso by 0.54%. Both Jessup and Moller ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. Independent expenditures benefitting Jessup come from spending by the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC and Pro Jobs Majority both for Jessup and against Moller. Housing First Fund also made independent expenditures for Jessup while the HRCC spent against Moller. The independent expenditures benefitting Moller come from spending by MN DFL State Central Committee and Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund both spending for Moller and against Jessup. Additionally, the DFL House Caucus spent against Jessup while Alliance for a Better Minnesota, Education Minnesota, MN AFL-CIO, SEIU Minnesota State Council, and Sierra Club all spent for Moller.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 42A $250,000.00

$200,000.00 Independent Expenditures $150,000.00 82% 55% Party Contributions $100,000.00 PAC Contributions

AmountRaised 5% 5% Contributions from Individuals $50,000.00 1% 3% 31% Other Contributions 10% $0.00 2% 2% 4% Public Subsidy Randy Jessup (GOP) (DFL) $211,124 $171079

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 42A is in the northeastern Twin Cities area. Barack Obama won the district in 2012 with 51% of the vote and Hillary Clinton won in 2016 with 53%.

27 House District 44A

Anderson has held the seat since 2006 (43A from 2006-2012) when she defeated DFL incumbent Sandy Hewitt by 5.17%. Both Anderson and Klevorn ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. Independent expenditures benefitting Anderson come from spending by the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC and Pro Jobs Majority both for Anserson and against Klevorn. Housing First Fund and National Association of Realtors Fund all made independent expenditures for Anderson with MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund and HRCC spending against Klevorn. The independent expenditures benefitting Klevorn come from spending by the MN DFL State Central Committee, the DFL House Caucus, and Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund Minnesota spending both against Anderson and for Klevorn. Additionally, Alliance for a Better Minnesota, Education Minnesota, MN AFL-CIO, Outreach MN Action, and SEIU Minnesota State Council all made independent expenditures for Klevorn.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 44A $300,000

$250,000

$200,000 Independent Expenditures

$150,000 85% 64% Party Contributions PAC Contributions $100,000 AmountRaised Contributions from Individuals 4% 5% $50,000 2% Other Contributions 2% 26% 9% $0 2% 1% Public Subsidy Sarah Anderson (GOP) (DFL) $278,725 $229,802

*Independent expenditures include spending for the candidates and against their opponents

District 44A is in the western Twin Cities area and covers much of Plymouth. Mitt Romney won the district with 51% in 2012 whereas Hillary Clinton won with 53% in 2016.

28 House District 48A

A DFL representative has held the seat since 2012 with Pryor defeating Mary Shapiro (GOP) for the open seat in 2016 by 3.48%. Both Pryor and Cousins ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. The independent expenditures benefitting Cousins come from spending by the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC both for Cousins and against Pryor, spending by Housing First Fund for Cousins, and spending by HRCC, MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund, and Pro Jobs Majority spending against Pryor. Independent expenditures benefitting Pryor come from spending by the DFL House Caucus against Cousins and by Education Minnesota, MN AFL- CIO, MN DFL State Central Committee, and Sierra Club for Pryor.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 48A $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 40% $60,000 Independent Expenditures 32% $50,000 6% Party Contributions $40,000 9% 10% 5% PAC Contributions $30,000 AmountRaised Contributions from Individuals $20,000 44% 42% Other Contributions $10,000 3% $0 7% 2% Public Subsidy Ellen Cousins (GOP) Laurie Pryor (DFL) $66,546 $81,802

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 48A is in the western Twin Cities area. Barack Obama won the district in 2012 with 52% of the vote and Hillary Clinton won in 2016 with 56%.

29 House District 48B

Loon has held the seat since 2008 (42B from 2008-2012) when she defeated Jerry Pitzrick (DFL) by 14.69%. Both Loon and Kotyza-Witthuhn ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. The independent expenditures benefitting Loon come from spending by the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC both for Loon and against Kotyza-Witthuhn, spending by Housing First Fund for Loon, and by HRCC against Kotyza-Witthuhn. The independent expenditures benefitting Kotyza-Witthuhn come from spending by the DFL House Caucus, Everytown for Gun Safety, and the MN DFL State Central Committee both for her and against Loon. Additionally, Alliance for a Better Minnesota and Education Minnesota spent for Kotyza-Witthuhn.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 48B $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 Independent Expenditures 76% 73% $100,000 Party Contributions $80,000 PAC Contributions $60,000 AmountRaised Contributions from Individuals 3% $40,000 3% 4% 2% Other Contributions $20,000 13% 16% .05% Public Subsidy $0 2% 3% 3% Jennifer Loon (GOP) Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn (DFL) $169,792 $169,849

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 48B is southwest of the Twin Cities area and covers most of Eden Prairie. Mitt Romney won the district in 2012 with 52% of the vote whereas Hillary Clinton won in 2016 with 53%.

30 House District 49A

Anselmo has held the seat since 2016 when he defeated the incumbent Ron Erhardt (DFL) by 2.26%. Both Anselmo and ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. Most of the independent expenditures benefitting Anselmo come from spending by Housing First Fund supporting him and spending by HRCC against Edelson. A majority of the independent expenditures benefitting Edelson are from spending by the MN DFL State Central Committee against Anselmo. The DFL House Caucus made independent expenditures both against Anselmo and for Edelson. Additionally, Alliance for a Better Minnesota made independent expenditures for Edelson.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 49A $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 36% $140,000 Independent Expenditures $120,000 1% 6% Party Contributions $100,000 24% $80,000 9% PAC Contributions 7% AmountRaised $60,000 50% Contributions from Individuals $40,000 58% Other Contributions $20,000 3% $0 2% 4% Public Subsidy Dario Anselmo (GOP) Heather Edelson (DFL) $107,263 $187,023

*Independent expenditures include spending for the candidates and against their opponents

District 49A is in the southwest suburbs of Minneapolis covering most of Edina. Barack Obama won the district in 2012 with 52% of the vote and Hillary Clinton won in 2016 with 57%.

31 House District 52B

Barr has held the seat since 2016 when she defeated Mary T’Kach for the open seat by a narrow 0.56%. Both Barr and Richardson ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC and Pro Jobs Majority spent both for Barr and against Richardson. Housing First Fund also made independent expenditures for Barr while HRCC and MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund both spent against Richardson. The independent expenditures benefitting Richardson come from spending by the DFL House Caucus and MN DFL State Central Committee against Barr and for Richardson. Alliance for a Better Minnesota, Education Minnesota, Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund, MN AFL-CIO, Outfront MN Action, and Sierra Club all also made independent expenditures for Richardson.

Sources of Candidate Sources - House District 52B $250,000

$200,000 Independent Expenditures $150,000 62% 80% Party Contributions $100,000 PAC Contributions

AmountRaised 3% 5% Contributions from Individuals $50,000 4% 1% 25% Other Contributions 13% $0 2% 3% Public Subsidy Regina Barr (GOP) Ruth Richardson (DFL) $213,848 $204278

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 52B is in the southeastern Twin Cities area. Barack Obama won the district with 53% of the vote in 2012 and Hillary Clinton won with 50% in 2016.

32 House District 53B

Fenton has held the seat since 2014 when she defeated incumbent Kay Hendrikson (DFL) by 13.9%. Fenton and Steven Sandell both ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. Most of the independent expenditures benefitting Fenton come from spending by the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC and Pro Jobs Majority both for Fenton and against Sandell. Housing First Fund also spent for Fenton while HRCC spent against Sandell. Independent expenditures benefitting Sandell come from spending by the DFL House Caucus, MN DFL State Central Committee, and Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund for Sandell and against Fenton. Additionally, Alliance for a Better Minnesota, Education Minnesota, MN AFL-CIO, and Sierra Club made independent expenditures for Sandell.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 53B $250,000

$200,000 Independent Expenditures $150,000 80% Party Contributions $100,000 PAC Contributions 67% AmountRaised Contributions from Individuals $50,000 1%.05% .06% 3% Other Contributions 13% 21% 4% 4% $0 2% 4% Public Subsidy Kelly Fenton (GOP) (DFL) $216568 $130132

*Independent expenditures include spending for the candidates and against their opponents

District 53B is in the greater Twin Cities area covering most of Woodbury. Mitt Romney won 52% of the vote in 2012 whereas Hillary Clinton won with 52% of the vote in 2016.

33 House District 54A

Franke has held the seat since 2016 when he defeated Jen Peterson (DFL) for the open seat by 2.98%. Both Franke and Claflin ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. The independent expenditures benefitting Franke come from spending by the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses, HRCC, and Pro Jobs Majority spending for Franke and against Claflin. Housing First Fund spent for Franke and MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund spent against Claflin. The independent expenditures benefitting Claflin come from spending by the DFL House Caucus, Everytown for Gun Safety, and the MN DFL State Central Committee spending for Claflin and against Franke. Additionally, Alliance for a Better Minnesota, Education Minnesota, MN AFL-CIO, SEIU Minnesota State Council, and We Can Change the World Committee all made independent expenditures for Claflin.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 54A $250,000

$200,000 Independent Expenditures $150,000 90% Party Contributions

$100,000 75% PAC Contributions

AmountRaised Contributions from Individuals $50,000 2% 7% Other Contributions 1% 2% 4% 12% $0 2% 1% 3% 1% Public Subsidy Keith Franke (GOP) (DFL) $232,823 $148,210

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 54A is in the southeastern Twin Cities area. Barack Obama won the district in 2012 with 56% of the vote and Hillary Clinton won in 2016 with 47%.

34 House District 56A

Christensen has held the seat since 2014 when he defeated Dan Kimmel (DFL) by 11.8% for the open seat. Both Christensen and Cantrell ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. The independent expenditures benefitting Christensen come from spending by the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses spending both for Christensen and against Cantrell. The National Association of Realtors Fund also spent for Christensen while HRCC and MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund spent against Cantrell. The independent expenditures benefitting Cantrell come from spending the DFL House Caucus, Everytown for Gun Safety, and MN DFL State Central Committee spending for Cantrell and against Christensen. Additionally, Alliance for a Better Minnesota, Education Minnesota, MN AFL-CIO, Outfront MN, and SEIU Minnesota State Council all made independent expenditures for Cantrell.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 56A $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 Independent Expenditures $120,000 79% $100,000 Party Contributions $80,000 60% PAC Contributions

AmountRaised $60,000 Contributions from Individuals 4% $40,000 2% 7% 3% Other Contributions $20,000 11% 25% 3% $0 2% 4% 1% Public Subsidy Drew Christensen (GOP) (DFL) $186,356 $124,715

*Independent expenditures include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 56A is in the southwestern Twin Cities area. Mitt Romney won the district in 2012 with 51% of the vote whereas Hillary Clinton won in 2016 with 47%.

35 House District 56B

Peterson has held the seat since 2014 when she defeated the incumbent, Will Morgan (DFL) by 8.2%. Both Peterson and ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. Most of the independent expenditures benefitting Peterson are from spending by the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC, MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund, and the HRCC against Mann along with some spending by Housing First Fund, Coalition of Minnesota Businesses, National Association of Realtors, and Pro Jobs Majority supporting Peterson. Independent expenditures benefitting Mann come from spending by the DFL House Caucus and MN DFL State Central Committee both against Peterson and for Mann. Additionally, Alliance for a Better Minnesota, Education Minnesota PAC, Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund Minnesota, MN AFL-CIO, and SEIU Minnesota State Council Political Fund all made independent expenditures supporting Mann.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 56B $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 Independent Expenditures $200,000 80% Party Contributions $150,000 PAC Contributions

AmountRaised $100,000 61% Contributions from Individuals $50,000 1% 2% 1% 6% Other Contributions 13% 23% $0 1% 2% 3% 6% Public Subsidy Roz Peterson (GOP) Alice Mann (DFL) $292,124 $152,878

*Independent expenditures include spending for the candidates and against their opponents

District 56B is in the southern suburbs of Minnesota covering parts of Burnsville and Lakeville. Barack Obama narrowly won the district in 2012 with 49% of the vote while Hillary Clinton won in 2016 with 49% to Donald Trumps 44%.

36

House District 57B

Wills has held the seat since 2012 when she defeated Jeff Wilfahrt (DFL) by 6.6% for the open seat. Wills and Huot ran unopposed in the 2018 primary. Most of the independent expenditures benefitting Wills come from spending by the Coalition of Minnesota Businesses IEPC and Pro Jobs Majority both for Wills and against Huot. HRCC and MN Jobs Coalition Legislative Fund also spent against Huot. The independent expenditures benefitting Huot come from spending by the MN DFL State Central Committee, the DFL House Caucus, and Everytown for Gun Safety spending for Huot and against Wills. Additionally, Alliance for a Better Minnesota, Education Minnesota, MN AFL-CIO, and SEIU Minnesota State Council all made independent expenditures for Huot.

Sources of Candidate Support - House District 57B $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 Independent Expenditures 76% $100,000 Party Contributions $80,000 72% PAC Contributions $60,000 AmountRaised Contributions from Individuals 2% $40,000 3% 2% 6% Other Contributions $20,000 15% 17% 2% .03% $0 3% 4% Public Subsidy Anna Wills (GOP) (DFL) $169,157 $129,748

*Independent expenditures include include spending for candidates and against their opponents

District 57B is in the southern Twin Cities area. Mitt Romney won the district in 2012 with 50% of the vote whereas Hillary Clinton won in 2016 with 48%.

37 About the Study

The campaign finance data used for this analysis come from Minnesota's Campaign Finance Board (https://cfb.mn.gov/reports-and-data/self-help/data-downloads/campaign-finance/) and cover the period of January 1, 2018 through October 22, 2018. The authors analyzed and compiled contributions received by candidates from all sources, including individuals, parties, and PACs and the independent expenditures made by parties and groups. Only candidates who won in the August primaries are included.1

1 Our analysis does not include spending after July in Minnesota House Districts 57A, 66A, 17A, and 65B because a candidate in each of those races has not yet submitted his/her report to the Minnesota Campaign Finance Board. District 7B is not included in the in-state vs out-of-state and microdonations graphs because one of the reports was missing information, but it is included in the overall analysis.

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