DEMOGRAPHIC COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH

IN SEVEN CITIES OF : 1961-1971

by

RININGSIH SALADI

A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Arts in Demography in the Australian National University

Canberra, March 1981.

' UBRARY O DECLARATION

Except where otherwise indicated, this thesis is my own work.

Riningsih Saladi i

DEMOGRAPHIC COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH

IN SEVEN CITIES OF CENTRAL JAVA : 1961-1971

ABSTRACT

This thesis presents the results of an attempt to estimate, through the use of demographic analysis, the components of population growth in the seven cities of Central Java having municipal statuses. Special tabulation runs on the 1971

Population Census of are the main source of data for the estimates. The average crude birth rates during the period

1961-1971 were obtained by multiplying the 1971 population age distributions by the given age specific fertility rates during the period assuming little change in the age structure. The average crude death rates and crude net migration rates were obtained from the life tables produced by the Brass method, West

Model Life Tables and the logit system. The results indicate that the cities experienced mostly net out migration, which in some cases was explained by overspill beyond the official city's boundaries. ii

CONTENTS

Page

ABSTRACT i

LIST OF TABLES iV

LIST OF FIGURES V

CHAPTER

1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Research Problem 1

1.2 Predominant Characteristics of the Seven Cities 3

1.3 The Approach 8

2 AGEDISTRIBUTION 10

2.1 The Importance of Age Distribution 10

2.2 The Reliability of Age Data 12

2.3 Differences in Age Distribution 16

2.4 Conclusion 20

3 FERTILITY AND MORTALITY 23

3.1 Fertility 23

3.1.1 Age at First Marriage 23

3.1.2 Measures of Fertility 32

3.2 Mortality 36

3.2.1 Estimation of Life Table 37

3.2.2 Crude Death Rate 41

3.3 Conclusion 41

4 MIGRATION 43

4.1 Estimation of Net Migration 43

4.2 Characteristics of Inmigrants from Other Provinces 52

4.2.1 Age at Migration and Sex 54

4.2.2 Marital Status and Duration of Residence 56 iii

Page

4.3 Motives for Moving 60

CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS 62

APPENDICES 67 iv

LIST OF TABLES

Table Title Page

1.1 Some Characteristics of the Seven Cities 2

2.1 Deviation of Per Cent Blended Population from Ten by Terminal Digit in the Seven Cities of Central Java and Indonesia, 1971 14

2.2 Scores for Age and Sex Ratios for Quinquennial Groups for the Seven Cities in Central Java and Indonesia, 1971 17

2.3 Percentage of Population in Various Age Groups, Median Age and Dependency Ratio (1971) and Population Growth Rates (1961-1971) for the Seven Cities and Jakarta 18

3.1 Percentage of Women Single by Age Group and Singulate Mean Age at Marriage for the Seven Cities in Central Java, 1971 25

3.2 Percentages of Single Women Aged 15-19 Attaining Primary School Plus and Percentages of Population Who Are Moslem, for the Seven Cities in Central Java, 1971 25

3.3 Percentage of Single Women in Selected Age Groups and Years in Java 28

3.4 Percentages of Single Women Aged 15-19 for Provinces in Selected Series of Population Surveys 28

3.5 Percentage of Women with No Schooling by Age, for the Seven Cities in Central Java, 1971 30

3.6 Trend of Fertility Rates at Ages 15-19 for the Seven Cities in Central Java, 1961-71 30

3.7 Mean Number of Children Ever Born, Born to Ever Married Women of the Seven Cities in Central Java, by Age, 1971 34

3.8 Average Age Specific Fertility Rates and Total Fertility Rates During 1961-1970 for the Seven Cities of Central Java 34

3.9 Estimates of Q(2), Q(3) and Q(5) Using Brass' Method and 'West' Level of Mortality, for the Seven Cities of Central Java, 1971 38

3.10 Standard Logit l-I(xs) for Males and Females of the Seven Cities in Central Java 42

4.1 Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in 45

4.2 Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in ' 46

4.3 Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in 47 V

Table Title Page

4.4 Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in 48

4.5 Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in 49

4.6 Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in Yogyakarta 50

4.7 Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in 51

4.8 The Calculation of the Average Annual Rates of Net Migration During 1961-1971, for the Seven Cities in Central Java 52

4.9 Number and Sex of Inmigrants to the Seven Cities of Central Java from Other Provinces, 1961-1971 54

4.10 Percentage Distribution of Migrants to the Seven Cities in Central Java from Other Provinces by Age at Migration, 1971 55

4.11 Percentage of Inmigrants to the Seven Cities in Central Java from Other Provinces, by Sex and Age at Migration, 19'71 57

4.12 Percentaqe Distribution of Inmigrants to the Seven Cities in Central Java from Other Provinces bv Current Age, Duration of Residence, Marital Status, and Activities, 1971 58

5.1 Rates and Components of Population Growth for the Seven Cities of Central Java 62

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure Age-Sex Distribution of the Cities 21 2.1

Map Site of Seven Cities in Central Java 4 CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Research Problem

This thesis considers the overall level of population growth

in seven cities of Central Java, namely Semarang, Salatiga,

Tegal, Magelang, Surakarta, Yogyakarta and Pekalongan. During

the decade 1961-1971, these cities experienced low growth rates

compared to Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia. In this

decade Jakarta"s population grew at 4.6% per annum (McNicoll et

al,1973:47) while that of the seven cities grew much more slowly

(Table 1.1). The rates of population growth for the seven cities

differ from one another quite substantially (indicated by this

table) and the factors contributing to these differences form a

research problem of as much interest and importance as their

overall low rate of growth when compared to Jakarta. Therefore,

the main focus of this research will be to explain the variations

in population growth of the seven cities in terms of the

demographic components of growth.

The components of population growth of a city are births,

deaths, migration and changes of boundary definitions. Because

there were no annexations or detachments of rural areas to or

from any of the seven cities during the intercensal decade of

1961-1971, the components of population growth in this study are

only natural increase (the difference between the numbers of

births and deaths) and net migration (the difference between the

numbers of in-migrants and out-migrants). Page 2

Table 1.1

Some Characteristics of the Seven Cities

CHARACTER­ SEM SAL TEG MAG SUR YOG PEK ISTICS

Pop. :

(1).1961 503153 58135 89016 96454 367626 312648 102380

(2).1971 641795 69668 105481 109938 413077 340908 110865

% rate of growth* 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.2 .9 .8

Density:*)

(3).1961 5062 3844 7026 5323 8478 9265 5966

(4) .1971 6457 4608 8325 6067 9527 10101 6461

(7).Number of industries:

(5).M size 303 12 136 74 887 629 391

(6).L size 126 2 20 8 101 54 22

Number of univ.: 2 1 -- 3 6 -

(8) Site Coastal Upland Coastal Upland Lowland Lowland Coastal port non-port non-port

Source: (1),(3),(5),(6),(7) Milone:1966 (2) Central Bureau of Statistics, 1971 Census, Series E (4) Subset, 1971 Census (8) Withington:1963 Note : * annual, geometric *) per square Km. M = medium; L = large Page 3

Despite this, the absence of boundary changes may still be

important in explaining low growth rates as some of these cities may well have experienced suburbanization outside the official boundary. For example, in Yogyakarta, many government employees have moved out of congested areas in the city centre to new housing estates outside the city boundary.

The seven cities are the only cities in Central Java having municipal status. To gain this status, a city must fulfil two main criteria. Namely, they must have a population of at least

50,000 and be a capital of either a province, residency or

regency (Milone, 1966:65). Furthermore, cities designated as municipalities are functionally more important than the other

cities in the sense of their role in regional development

planning. Out of the seven cities, Semarang, Yogyakarta,

Surakarta and Magelang are planned to become secondary growth

poles after the primary centres; which are Medan, Jakarta,

Surabaya and Ujung Pandang (Sugijanto et al,1976:77). A

secondary growth pole is a center for stimulating development at

a regional level.

1.2 Predominant Character-istics of the Seven Cities

Most of the discussion concerning the characteristics of the

seven cities is developed from Table 1.1 and Map 1.1. By showing

the distribution of the seven cities, this map displays the types

of "site" of these cities, a term which refers to the actual

physical characteristics of the location on which a city is built

(Berry et al,1977:11). The three types of site are shown in

Table 1.1. M A P 1.1 SITE OF SEVEN CITIES IN CENTRAL JAVA Seele 1: 1.400.000 ae 4 Page

LEGEND Page 5

In historic time, these physical characteristics played an

important role in population growth.

In 1971, the seven cities ranged in size from 69,668 people

in Salatiga, to 641,795 people in Semarang, which is the capital city of the province of Central Java. In addition to this

administrative function, the city of Semarang is both capital of

the regency and the residency of Semarang. Also, Semarang, in

1971, was the fourth largest city in Indonesia after Jakarta

(4,576,009), Surabaya(l,332,249) and Bandung(1,201,730).

Semarang has a higher rate of growth than Bandung(2.1%), and a

rate .3% lower than Surabaya. 1) However this comparison may be

somewhat misleading as the population growth in the areas

surrounding Bandung and Surabaya would have been greater than in

the areas around Semarang.

Semarang not only has the largest population among the seven

cities, but it also has the largest city area (99.40 sq.Km) and

the most large-scale industry. The population density of

Semarang is therefore lower than that of Surakarta or Yogyakarta,

which have city areas of only 43.36 and 33.75 sq.Km.,

respectively. Among the cities located in the coastal areas only

Semarang maintains its status as a city port. Pekalongan is no

longer a city port because of silting of the rivers and the

increasing size of ships. In terms of higher education

functions, one of the existing universities in Semarang,

Diponegoro University, has attracted students from all over

Indonesia.

1) The 1961-1971 rate of growth for Surabaya of 2.8 per cent refers to the growth rate based on the 1961 boundaries of Surabaya. In fact, between 1961 and 1971, the boundary of Surabaya was extended to take account of the expansion of the n i HfTMrr'in rl i 4- c K/-\i m v i Page 6

Although Salatiga is the smallest city, its rate of growth is second to that of Semarang. The population density though, and the number of industries for this city are the lowest.

Satyawacana University, a privately owned religious university, is located here. The higher proportion of Christians (10%) in this city may be closely related to its being a Protestant educational centre.

Surakarta and Yogyakarta are the second and third largest cities. Like Semarang, Yogyakarta is a provincial capital, being the capital of the Yogyakarta Special Region, which is at the same level as a province. The two cities, Yogyakarta and

Surakarta have some similarities. Both are former court cities, located in a central position on a fertile agricultural plain.

In addition to this, the "batik" industry with its research centre and silverwork handicrafts make Yogyakarta and Surakarta the outstanding centres of Javanese culture and art. The designation of Yogyakarta as a student city is due to the great number of higher educational institutions which exist in this city. Gadjah Mada University is one of the oldest, largest and most highly regarded universities in Indonesia, and is in fact

the main stimulus for the extension of these institutions. The

Academy of Art and Music reflects Yogyakarta"s role as a centre of Javanese culture.

Three of the cities have populations of about the same size.

They are Tegal, Magelang and Pekalongan. These cities have, however, experienced substantial differences in population growth, population density and industrial development. With

respect to their physical background, fishing is an important

source of livelihood for Tegal and Pekalongan, and in the case of Magelang, its upland site is cooler during the dry season. The existence of a school for fishermen in Tegal is closely related to the presence of this natural resource. The existence of a military academy in Magelang, has meant that this city has become a garrison city.

Map 1.1 does not only show the distribution of the seven cities, but also indicates that Tegal, Pekalongan, Semarang,

Surakarta and Yogyakarta are situated on the railroad connecting

Jakarta and Surabaya. Therefore, they can act as alternative centres of attraction for people moving to the largest cities if the regional planning development mentioned above is realized.

As a rule, population growth of an area is positively related to the processes of social and economic development in the area. Therefore, we may expect higher growth rates for cities having, for example, more industries and schools than those cities having fewer or no such components of growth. 1)

This relationship is easily identified in some cities, generally those located outside of Java. Extractive industries, such as petroleum and timber have led Pakanbaru and Samarinda to grow in the decade of the 1960s at the very high rates of 7.4% and 7.0% per annum, respectively (McNicoll et al,1973:47). For the seven cities, as briefly shown in Table 1.1 or as evidenced by other characteristics, the above expectation is not easily identified.

The relationship between population growth and demographic processes is more easily identified than that with the

socioeconomic processes.

1) It should be realized, however, that this is not necessarily always the case. As the declining textile towns of New England testify, it is not the number of industries or schools in a city that determine its growth rate, but rather the prospects for future industrial and educational development. However, in the developing country situation, the relationship between population growth and the number of industries and schools is likely to be stronger. Page 8

1.3 The Approach

The explanation of the variation in population growth for the seven cities in terms of demographic components of growth will be preceded by a discussion and evaluation of the age distribution of the population of each city. For this purpose the subset of the 1971 Census becomes the main source of data because the 1961 Census only provides data on the total population for each city. It is worth noting that the subset is a special tabulation run of the 1971 Population Census of

Indonesia which covered 3.8 per cent of the total population of

Indonesia (Cho, 1976:78). According to the availability of data, it is expected that cities showing higher rates of growth will have younger age distributions than those showing lower rates of growth. Besides, the age distributions may provide some insight into the interaction of demographic processes during the past decades.

The estimated components of growth are obtained indirectly

from life tables for both sexes for each city and age specific

fertility rates for each city arrived at by the "own children" method (Cho et al,1976:18-19). The life tables are used to

estimate the crude death rate and the crude net migration rate,

and the fertility rates are used to estimate the crude birth

rate. This estimation procedure is necessitated by the

unavailability of vital statistics and statistics on migration.

Since all the three components of growth are to be estimated, the

rate of growth derived from these components may not match the

observed population growth between the two census counts. Thus

the consistency between the two calculated rates of growth serves Page 9 as a means of evaluating the results.

To simplify the analysis, the seven cities will sometimes be divided into four groups; they are firstly Semarang, secondly

Salatiga and Tegal, thirdly Magelang and Surakarta, and lastly

Yogyakarta and Pekalongan. The grouping is based on the observed pace of population growth; cities having about the same rate being grouped together. Page 10

CHAPTER 2

AGE DISTRIBUTION

2.1 The Importance of Age Distribution

The study of population growth in terms of the demographic components of growth, births, deaths and migration, generally requires vital statistics and statistics on migration. In the absence of these statistics, the age distribution of a population plays an important role as it is useful for tracing back or for forecasting the components of growth so that the pace of growth can be explained. However, the contribution of each component in fixing the observed rate of growth will not be known precisely.

In this thesis, the age distribution of the population is important because vital statistics are not available. As age data are only available from the subset of the 1971 Census, these data are used for tracing back the components of growth in line with the purpose of the study of population growth during the decade 1961-1971.

The importance of the age distribution for tracing back the components of growth is due to the fact that age distribution of a population at any point of time is a result of the interaction of the number of births, deaths and migrations of the past decades. In a life table or stationary population, the age distribution is smooth because the number of persons at each age

is greater than the number at the next older age. Actual populations, however, experience varying numbers of births and deaths and some of them are subject to large migrant streams. As a result, the population may not exhibit a smooth age distribution. However, irregularities in the age distribution Page 11 cannot always be attributed to fluctuations in the number of births, deaths and migration changes in the population but can also be attributed to errors in age reporting as well as errors of coverage. It is important, therefore, to consider the accuracy of the recorded age data.

The explanation that the age distribution is important for forecasting the components of growth is basically biological, and the biological potential for influencing the pace of growth varies according to age. In terms of births, only women in the age range of about 15-49 are exposed to the risk of pregnancy; in terms of deaths, the risk of dying starts high at birth, falls rapidly to a minimum at about age 10 and thereafter increases throughout life (Pollard et al,1975:59-76). In terms of migrations, people at late adolescent and young adult ages are more exposed to the risk of migrating than the other ages as evidenced by the fact that in both internal and external migrations these age groups are usually preponderant. Although these people are often migrating to their first job, they adjust themselves more easily to their new environment than people in other age groups (Clarke,1965:124). Accordingly, a population having larger proportions in the childbearing and low-mortality ages tends to grow faster than one having smaller proportions of people in these categories. This natural growth is then either impeded or accelerated by the loss or gain of population through net migration to produce overall growth.

Finally, the age distribution and components of growth are in a reciprocal relationship, that is, the age distribution affects the demographic processes, while in turn, these processes affect the age distribution. Page 12

Ideally, of course, data on age distributions for subsequent points of time are available. This would mean that contributions of births, deaths and migrations would be more easily inferred from the changes of age distribution. The most detailed manner of analysis would be to examine changes in numbers of persons by single years of age, however, there are two major problems with that approach. First, for a large data set (one hundred separate age intervals, for example) it is difficult to detect major trends, and second, the possibility of errors is great. Instead, analysis is usually based on grouped age data.

Ways used in the examination of age distribution for tracing back or for forecasting the components of population growth are usually in the form of a table or a pyramid which group the age data, or in the form of an index, whether a median age or a dependecy ratio.

2.2 The Reliability of Age Data

Mis-reportings of age are usually dominated by errors of the

digital preference type, that is, a person"s age is rounded to

ages ending in certain digits. In order to check digit

preference in the single-year age reportings, Myers" index was

calculated for both males and females, using the ages 10-49 as

input. As shown in Table 2.1 digit preference or age heaping

occurs as usual at ages ending in 5 and 0, and the extent of

heaping is higher for terminal digit 0 than for 5. Furthermore,

negative deviations for the other digits indicate unpopular ages

and accordingly, fewer persons at these ages. The sum of

absolute deviations, or Myers" index, is higher for females than

that for males. When the indices for the seven cities are Page 13 compared to those of the urban population of all Indonesia, the table indicates that in the seven cities the indices for females are generally higher, whereas those for males are generally lower than for the Indonesian urban population as a whole.

In addition to the large number of people who reported their ages ending in digits 0 and 5, the 1971 Census for the whole of

Indonesia indicates a comparatively large number of people who reported their ages with terminal digits 1 and 6. This unusual

feature proved to be a result of the rounding of year of birth to calendar years ending in 0 and 5 (McDonald, et al.1976:13).

In fact, the possibility of errors in age data are most

serious when age classification is based on single years, less

serious when 5-year categories are used, and least serious when

age distributions are grouped into even larger categories such as

"less than 15 years old," "15 to 59 years of age," and "60 years

of age and over. Page 14

Table 2.1

Deviation of Per Cent Blended Population From Ten by Terminal Digit in the Seven Cities of Central Java and Indonesia,1971

CITY Terminal digit

5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 Sum*

SEM

M 3.5 -1.3 -2.1 - .0 - .9 5.8 - .7 - .4 -1.4 -2.4 18.6

F 6.3 -1.6 -2.1 - .5 -1.8 8.1 -1.8 -1.6 -2.1 -2.8 28.8

SAL

M 3.5 -1.2 -1.8 -3.3 -2.1 6.7 - .1 - .7 -1.4 -2.7 20.4

F 5.5 .0 -1.6 .8 -1.5 5.9 -1.3 -2.5 -2.1 -3.2 24.5

TEG

M 5.9 -3.1 - .4 - .6 - .9 8.4 -2.4 -1.7 -2.1 -3.1 28.7

F 9.6 -2.1 -1.6 - .4 -3.6 12.6 -4.3 -1.7 -4.6 -4.0 44.4

MAG

M 4.5 - .4 -1.9 -1.2 - .7 3.9 .2 -1.7 -1.0 -1.7 17.4

F 5.1 -1.9 -2.1 .2 - .9 9.5 -3.3 .7 -3.2 -4.0 30-9

SUR

M 3.7 -1.3 -1.0 - .1 -1.6 5.5 -1.4 -1.0 -1.0 -1.9 18.5

F 4.3 -1.8 - .3 - .0 -2.1 7.7 -1.9 -1.6 -2.1 -2.2 24.1

YOG

M 3.5 -1.9 -1.1 .3 -1.1 5.6 -1.1 - .3 -1.8 -2.2 19.0

F 6.1 -1.2 -1.2 .2 -2.0 8.6 -2.5 -2.4 -2.1 -3.5 29.8

PER

M 8.6 -2.1 -1.3 -1.4 -3.4 13.0 -1.7 -2.6 -5.1 -4.1 43.4

F 13.2 -1.6 -3.0 -1.7 -4.9 14.8 -3.0 -2.9 -5.0 -5.9 55.9 Page 15

Table 2.1 cont.

IND*)

M 4.7 -1.1 -1.1 .0 -1.3 5.6 - .9 -1.1 -2.4 -2.6 20.7

F 5.9 -1.0 -1.4 - .1 -2.0 7.4 -1.6 -1.9 -2.4 -2.9 26.7

Source: Subset, 1971 Census *) Central Bureau of Statistics, 1971 Census, Series E Note : * of absulute deviations; M=males; F=females

A method (United Nations, 1952:23) developed by the United

Nations Secretariat is used to check the accuracy of age data

after being grouped into 5-year age intervals. This method is

based on the assumption that the sex ratios and the numbers in

each age group should change smoothly with increasing age and it

attempts to measure the differences which occur from a steady

trend. The indices are called the sex ratio score, the age ratio

score, and the joint score as the combination of the first two

scores. However, when the United Nations approach is applied to

areas such as a city, it is important to remember that observed

distortions in the age-sex structure may not be due to

inaccuracies but rather to the impact of migration.

Table 2.2 indicates that the differences of each score among

the cities are substantial. Compared to the score for urban

Indonesia, most of the seven cities have much higher scores

Those cities having scores of less than that of the average, are

Surakarta for the sex ratio score, Surakarta and Semarang for the

male age ratio score, Salatiga and Semarang for the female age

ratio score, and Semarang and Surakarta for the joint score. Page 16

Age mis-statements can also be examined using population pyramids, because irregularities can reflect faults in the data.

If this is the case, for the seven cities, only Semarang"s population distribution has no marked irregularities (Figure

2.1). Besides mis-statements of age, the 1971 Census of

Indonesia indicates an underenumeration, especially of those aged

0 (McNicoll et al,1973:7) . The smaller proportion of population

aged 0-4 than those aged 5-9 indicated by the population pyramid

for Yogyakarta, may be due to the underenumeration of children

under 1 year of age.

2.3 Differences in Age Distribution

As has been stated earlier, the age distribution of a

population influences its growth; it is therefore expected that

differences in population growth will be reflected in differences

of age distribution. Figure 2.1 as well as Table 2.3 indicate

that the populations in the seven cities of Central Java in 1971

were heavily weighted in the young age group of 0-14. The table

also indicates the same phenomenon for Jakarta. Consequently, a

great potential for growth during 1961-1971 was expected to be

observed. Actually the table indicates substantial growth only

for Jakarta and Semarang, moderate growth for Salatiga and Tegal,

and low growth for the rest of the cities.

The exception to the above general phenomenon is Yogykarta;

that is, the proportion of population in age group 15-34 is

higher than in age group 0-14, and it is highest compared to the

other cities. The higher proportion of population in age group

15-34 in Yogyakarta is largely explained by the existence of a

large number of schools and universities in the city. The Page 17 age-pyramid (Figure 2.1) shows that the students are concentrated in the age range of 15-24 years old.

Table 2.2

Scores for Age and Sex Ratios for Quinquennial Groups for the Seven Cities in Central Java and Indonesia,1971

Scores SEM SAL TEG MAG SUR YOG PEK IND.*)

Sex ratio 9.8 20.5 17.3 15.4 6.9 12.4 18.3 7.8

Age ratio:

Male 5.8 15.8 16.7 10.9 6.1 10.4 12.5 7.4

Female 6.2 11.3 12.0 17.4 12.0 12.2 27.4 11.4

Joint score 41.4 88.7 80.7 74.4 38.9 59.9 94.8 42.2

Source: Subset, 1971 Census :*) Central Bureau of Statistics, 1971 Census, Series E Note :*) Indonesia urban Page 18

Table 2.3

Percentage of Population in Various Age Groups, Median Age and Dependency Ratio (1971), and Population Growth Rates (1961-1971) for the Seven Cities and Jakarta

CHARACTER­ SEM SAL TEG MAG SUR YOG PER JAR*) ISTICS

AGE

0-14 39.7 40.6 39.8 39.3 37.9 35.5 37.9 43.0

15-34 33.2 31.4 33.4 31.4 32.5 37.7 32.5 37.2

35-59 22.8 23.0 22.8 23.5 23.4 21.0 25.4 17.1

60 + 4.3 5.1 4.0 5.8 6.3 5.7 4.2 2.6

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Med. age 19.8 18.8 19.0 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.3 18.1

Dep. ratio 79.0 84.0 78.0 82.0 79.0 70.0 73.0 84.0

Rate of gr. 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.2 .9 .8 4.6

Source: Subset, 1971 Census :*) Central Bureau of Statistics, 1971 Census, Series E Note :Med.=median; Dep.=dependency; gr.=growth; JAK=Jakarta

Looking at the sex ratios of age group 15-24 for the seven

cities, the pyramid indicates that for Tegal, Magelang and

Yogyakarta, there are more males than females in this age group.

It is likely that for" Tegal and Magelang, this phenomenon is

related to schools which are only available for males; they are,

the School for Fishermen in Tegal and the Military Academy in

Magelang. As for Yogyakarta, the high sex ratio (128 males per

100 females) in age group 20-24 may reflect priority for boys

over girls for furthering education to the university level.

Greater emphasis on higher education for males compared to

females in Java more generally is evident from the proportions of

population aged 5 years and over who were enumerated in the 1971 Page 19

Census as still attending school.

The lower proportion of population in the age group 0-14 in

Yogyakarta compared to the other cities in Central Java may indicate a lower crude birth rate here compared to those in the other cities. This conclusion is supported by the lower crude birth rate in Yogyakarta Special Region than in Central Java province during the decade 1960-1970; these rates being 37 per

1000 and 42 per 1000, respectively (McNicoll et al,1973:45).

In terms of the proportion of the population aged 0-14, the seven cities" populations are older than the population of

Jakarta because these proportions are lower. This suggests that the population growth rate of Jakarta is higher than the overall population growth rate in the seven cities, which is indeed the case. For the seven cities, this phenomenon, that is the relationship between the proportion aged 0-14 and growth, applies in the expected direction for all cities except Semarang and

Pekalongan. If the age distribution of each city is measured by the median age, instead of proportion of population aged 0-14, the relation between age distribution and growth is mostly confirmed, the only exception being Semarang, where migration may serve to inflate the numbers in the working ages.

A median age is an age which divides a population into two equal parts, half above the median age and half below it. Table

2.3 also shows the dependency ratio which indicates the number of the non-productive population to every 100 population in the productive age range. With respect to economic development, the dependency ratio is a useful concept because economic development is related in several ways to age distribution. Their Page 20 relationship is inverse, as high dependency ratio is a hindrance to economic development. The non-productive population in Table

2.3 are indicated by those in the age groups 0-14 and 60+, whereas the productive population are those in the age range

15-59. The table shows that Jakarta has a higher dependency ratio than all the cities in Central Java.

2.4 Conclusion

The age distributions of the seven cities were not very different because they were concentrated in the age group of

0-14. The only exception was Yogyakarta. The analysis of age structure is a necessary preliminary step in the calculation of crude birth and death rates, but the similarity of the age

structures does not give any clear picture as to the causes of

the inter-city differences in growth rates. Therefore, the next

chapter is concerned mainly with estimation of the components of

natural increase. 85-99 Page 21 80-84 figure 2.1 75-79 * 70-74 ~k Age-Sex D istriburion * 65-69 of tue cities ** 60-64 k k *** 55-59 k k k **** 50-54 ***** ***** 45-49 k k k k k k m al e******* 40-44 ******* f emal e ******** 35-39 ********* *-*•****•*■* 30-34 ********* ******* 25-29 ********** * ********* 20-24 ************ k *-Jr *** * ** * * * * 15-19 ************** * * ** * * * ** * * * -k * * * 10-14 *************** **************** 5- 9 ***************** ****************** 0- 4 ****************** S em aran g

85-99 80-84 * 75-79 * * 70-74 ** * 65-69 ** ** 60-64 ** *** 55-59 *-*** ***** 50-54 **** ***** 45-49 ****** m ale ******** 40-44 ******* f em a l e ******* 35-39 ********** ******* 30-34 ********* ****** 25-29 ******** ********* 20-24 ********* *************** 15-19 **************** ***************** 10-14 **************** **************** 5- 9 ***************** ****************** 0- 4 ************** * * * S a l a t i g a

85-99 - - 80-84 75-79 k 70-74 k * 65-69 * • ** 60-64 ** *** 55-59 ****

***** 1 ***** 4> 0 s/l ****** 45-49 ***** male ******* 40-44 ******** i emal e ******* 35-39 ********* ****** 30-34 ******** ******** 25-29’ ********* ************ 20-24 ********* ***************** 15-19 **************** ***************** 10-14 **************** *************** 5- 9 ************** ******************* 0- 4 ******************* •re g a l Page 22

2 ^

8 5 - 9 9 k 8 5 - 9 9 8 0 - 8 4 k 8 0 - 8 4 k 7 5 -7 9 'k 7 5 - 7 9 k k 7 0 - 7 4 kk * 7 0 -7 4 kk kk 6 5 - 6 9 kk kk 6 5 - 6 9 kk kk 6 0 -6 4 kkk ** 6 0 - 6 4 kkkk kkkk 5 5 - 5 9 kkkk kkk 5 5 -5 9 kk kkkkk 5 0 -5 4 kkkkkk ***** 1 kkkk -O O '•V' kkkkk 4 5 - 4 9 kkkkkk ******* 4 5 - 4 9 ***** *** a.1 e ^***** 4 0 - 4 4 kkkkkkkk 1 em ale j^j_0 ********* 4 0 - 4 4 kkkkkkk female kkkkkkk kkkkkkkk ******** kkkkkkkkk 3 5 - 3 9 CO 3 5 - 3 9 o kkkkkk l kkkkkkkk * * * * * * * * 3 0 - 3 4 ******** kkkkkkk 2 5 -2 9 kkkkkkkk * * * * * * * * 2 5 -2 9 kkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkk 2 0 -2 4 kkkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkk 2 0 -2 4 kkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkkkk 1 5 -1 9 kkkkkkkkkkkkkkk 1 5 -1 9 kkkkkkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk kkkk k k k k k k kk k k k kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk 1 0 -1 4 1 0 -1 4 kkkkkkkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk 5 - 9 kkkkkkkkkkkkkkk 5 - 9 kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk Q— 4 kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkkk kk 0 - 4 kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk S u r a k a r ta magelang

8 5 - 9 9 8 5 - 9 9 3 0 - 8 4 * 8 0 - 8 4 7 5 -7 9 7 5 -7 9 k 7 0 -7 4 kk k 7 0 -7 4 * * 6 5 - 6 9 kk k 6 5 - 6 9 * kkk 6 0 —64 kkk kk 6 0 - 6 4 kkk kkk 5 5 -5 9 kkk kkk 5 5 -5 9 kkk kkkk 5 0 - 5 4 kkkkk kkkkk 5 0 - 5 4 ***** kkkkk 4 5 - 4 9 kkkkkk kkkkkk 4 5 - 4 9 ****** m ale ****** 4 0 - 4 4 kkkkkkk f e m a l e m ale ******** 4 0 - 4 4 ******** fem ale kkkkkk 3 5 - 3 9 kkkkkkkk ********* 3 5 - 3 9 *********** kkkkkkk 3 0 - 3 4 kkkkkkk ******** 3 0 -3 4 ********** kkkkkkkkk 2 5 - 2 9 kkkkkkkk ******** 2 5 - 2 9 ******** ********* kkkkkkkkkkkkk 2 0 - 2 4 kkkkkkkkkkkk ********* 2 0 -2 4 *************** kkkkkkkkkkkkk 1 5 -1 9 kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk ************** 1 5 -1 9 kkkkkkkkkkkkk 1 0 -1 4 kkkkkkkkkkkkkkk *************** 1 0 -1 4 ************* ***************** kkkkkkkkkkkkk 5 - 9 kkkkkkkkkkkkkkk **************** 5 - 9 kkkkkkkkkkkkk 0 - 4 kkkkkkkkkkkkkk ***************** 0 - 4 ***************** logyakarta Pekalongan i?ig. 2.1 com, Page 23

CHAPTER 3

FERTILITY AND MORTALITY

3.1 Fertility

Before discussing measures of fertility, age at first marriage is regarded worth discussing as it may indirectly affect population growth through its effect on fertilty.

3.1.1 Age at First Marriage

In general, age specific fertility is a result of age at marriage, proportions married and intervals between marriage and

first birth and subsequent births. Accordingly, higher fertility

rates tend to be associated with earlier marriage, higher proportions marrying and shorter intervals between marriage and

first birth and successive births. Due to the unavailability of

data, only the first factor among these influencing components of

fertility will be identified. That is, examination will be made

of whether cities indicating lower ages at first marriage are

those indicating higher fertility. This matter will be discussed

below but firstly this section discusses some possible factors

leading to differences of age at first marriage.

Because no direct data on female age at first marriage are

available, the study will be based on the composition of the

population by age and marital status. The proportion single in

the younger adult age range is a good indicator of age at first

marriage. In the case of females in urban areas of Indonesia,

the age group 15-19 is most appropriate. The increased

aspirations concerning education for girls seem to be responsible

for the observed high proportions single in the ages 15-19 for Page 24 the seven cities in particular (Table 3.1) and for urban

Indonesia in general (77%) in comparison with all of Indonesia.

Educational attainment for a child attending school until age 16 would be junior high school and for age 19 senior high school. These levels of education are therefore regarded as desirable instead of primary school education for those who are still single in the age range 15-19. Therefore, even before the promulgation in 1974 of the new marriage law, which fixed the ages at first marriage at 16 and 19 for a girl and boy respectively, there were indications of an increasing age at first marriage. This trend coincides with increased education aspirations for both sexes (Hull,1975:200), reflected in the dramatic rise in levels of education among 15-19 year olds.

The proportions of single women in the age range 15-19 with an educational level of primary school and above are presented in

Table 3.2. The highest proportion for Yogyakarta seems to confirm that furthering education to junior high school and/or senior high school is the main reason for staying single in the age group 15-19, as inducement for higher education is great in this city. In fact, up to completion of secondary education

(i.e., senior high school) the norm is to stay single. However, among those who go on to tertiary educational level some are married while students. Page 25

Table 3.1

Percentage of Women Single by Age Group and Singulate Mean Age at Marriage for the Seven Cities in Central Java, 1971

Percentage of women single

AGE SEM SAL TEG MAG SUR YOG PER

15-19 81 88 76 83 87 93 81

20-24 44 44 33 49 46 64 35

25-29 14 11 15 9 15 22 14

30-34 6 4 7 4 7 9 4

35-39 4 2 3 2 4 4 2

40-44 3 2 1 1 2 3 1

45-49 1 2 - 3 3 2 2

SMAM 22.1 21.9 21.7 22.0 22.7 24.5 21.1

Source:Subset, 1971 Census Note:SMAM=Singulate Mean Age at Marriage

Table 3.2

Percentages of Single Women Aged 15-19 Attaining Primary School Plus and Percentages of Population Who Are Moslem, for the Seven Cities in Central Java,1971

CHARACTER­ SEM SAL TEG MAG SUR YOG PER ISTICS

Single women 85 89 83 87 90 94 86 aged 15-19 with PS+

Moslem 81 78 91 82 79 83 93 population

Source: Subset, 1971 Census Page 26

In most countries age at first marriage is strongly influenced by religious affiliation, age at completion of education, social class, and age at attainment of a steady income large enough to support a family (Thomlinson,1976:208). In considering the influence of religion on age at first marriage, the proportion Moslem, which is the ratio of the Moslem population in each city to the total population of the city, is used as an index. Table 3.2 indicates some differences in the proportion Moslem among the seven cities.

The Moslem religion is claimed to be conducive both to early and universal marriage because celibacy is condemned

(Korson,1969:153; Momeni,1972:548). This table indicates that, in general, the cities having a higher proportion Moslem are those indicating a lower singulate mean age at marriage. The table indicates, however, that there are two exceptions to this pattern, namely, Yogyakarta and Salatiga. The anomaly for these cities is reflected by the higher proportion Moslem for

Yogyakarta than that for Salatiga but the singulate mean age at marriage for Yogyakarta is much higher than that for Salatiga.

This may be related to the higher proportion of students who are

likely to delay marriage in Yogyakarta than in Salatiga .

Throughout Indonesia, an upward trend of age at first marriage through the 1960s and early 1970s has been identified.

McNicoll and Mamas (1973:22) came to this conclusion using data

from the first four rounds of the National Socioeconomic Survey

and the 1971 Census, whereas McDonald (1978:4) studied the matter

in more detail with data from three large population

enumerations; the 1971 Census, 1973 Fertility-Mortality Survey

and the 1976 Intercensal Population Survey. The results for Java Page 27 are presented in Table 3.3 and Table 3.4. The suggested increase in age at first marriage for females is derived in these two tables from the comparison of the proportions single in the early adult age groups at successive enumerations. The increasing proportions single at successive enumerations are obvious especially in the age group 15-19. When data for Central Java and Yogyakarta are separated it is clear that among the provinces in Java, in every enumeration, age at first marriage is always highest in Yogyakarta Special Region (Table 3.4). Altthough no single factor leading to the indicated increase of age at first marriage was mentioned, increasing education of women is probably the most likely determinant. To identify the increasing education of women, Table 3.5 is presented. This table shows the proportions of adult women to the total women in each age bracket, Page 28

Table 3.3

Percentage of Single Women in Selected Age Groups and Years in Java

A g e

YEAR 15-19 20-24 25-29

1963 49.6 11.2 3.3

1964 50.4 8.9 2.5

1967 54.2 12.3 2.9

1969 57.9 14.2 2.8

1971 56.0 14.5 3.5

1976 59.2 - -

Source: McNicoll, et al. 1973:Table 7 McDonald, 1978:Table 1

Table 3.4

Percentages of Single Women Aged 15-19 for Provinces of Java in Selected Series of Population Surveys

PROVINCE 1971 CENSUS 1973 FM SURVEY 1976 SUPAS

Jakarta 68.5 - 73.7

West Java 47.0 55.3 44.8

Central Java 60.1 65.4

Central Java 75.0

Yogyakarta 85.4 86.0

East Java 55.0 62.8 59.6

Source: McDonald, 1978:Table 1 Note : FM=Fertility-Mortality;SUPAS=Intercensal survey. Page 29 who have never attended school. As the table indicates an increasing proportion of women with no schooling as age increases, the existence of increasing educational attainment by women is confirmed. It is not clear whether the variation in trends between cities is due to differences in educational facilities or to regional differences in the social demand for education.

Indirect evidence supporting the finding of an upward trend in age at first marriage in the cities of Central Java is shown by Table 3.6. Comparing the first three periods of time shown in this table, all the seven cities of Central Java indicate a downward trend of fertility in age group 15-19. If this trend means a decrease in the proportion of women entering into married life at ages less than 20, a delay of marriage would be the explanation. However, this trend might also be interpreted as a delay of first births. If this was the case, it is unlikely to have been due to the success of the Family Planning Program, because the program only started in 1970. Since having a child as soon as possible after marriage is still the norm, it is almost certain that there was a delay in age at first marriage rather than a delay in first births. This norm is reflected in a study on the value of children in Java that showed only 32% of the Javanese respondents approved of usage of family planning to delay the first birth (Singarimbun et al,1977:14).

Table 3.1 indicates that the proportion of single women in the ages 15-19 to total women in the age bracket and the singulate mean age at marriage vary considerably between the cities. Age at first marriage as indicated by these indices is found to be higher for women in Yogyakarta than for those in the Page 30

Table 3.5

Percentage of Women with No Schooling by Agef for the Seven Cities in Central Java,1971

AGE SEM SAL TEG MAG SUR YOG PEK

15-19 10 7 12 4 9 4 12

20-24 14 10 11 8 10 6 11

25-29 26 17 23 18 21 14 31

30-34 44 37 47 27 41 34 55

35-39 53 47 59 43 48 42 59

40-44 58 52 59 48 57 44 71

45-49 64 63 62 57 61 56 77

Source: Subset, 1971 Census

Table 3.6

Trend of Fertility Rates at Ages 15-19 for the Seven Cities in Central Java, 1961-1970

PERIOD SEM SAL TEG MAG SUR YOG PEK

1961-"63 102 115 136 118 97 65 128

1964-"66 88 72 108 135 84 56 115

1967-"70 79 55 103 49 64 27 95

Source: Cho, 1976:Table 2.2 other cities, the difference in the mean being about two years

There is however no indication that cities having higher rates of

growth are cities having lower ages at first marriage. Even when

the comparison is between cities having about the same rate of

population growth, the ages at marriage in terms of the singulate

mean age at marriage, are not very different in the case of

Salatiga and Tegal, but are very different in the case of Page 31

Yogyakarta and Pekalongan, while Magelang and Surakarta show a medium level difference. This suggests that for the seven cities in Central Java, there is no relationship between age at first marriage and population growth.

It should be noted, however, that the singulate mean age at marriage is calculated in this study adopting Hajnal"s method

(1953:130) based on the proportions single in successive age groups as presented in Table 3.1. The limitation of this method is that it does not take migration into consideration; and, in fact, in and out migration from the seven cities was very substantial. As migration is generally selective for those who are single, consequently, for places of origin this factor will depress the singulate mean age at marriage, whereas for places of destination migration will increase the singulate mean age at marriage. As indicated later, Semarang and Tegal experienced net inmigration whereas the other cities experienced net outmigration during the intercensal decade of 1961-1971. Therefore, the estimated age at first marriage may be too high for Semarang and

Tegal, and too low for the rest of the cities presuming that the direction of total net migration is indicative of the migration of females aged 15-24. Page 32

3.1.2 Measures of Fertility

Three kinds of fertility measure will be discussed in this thesis. They are, children ever born to women, the total fertility rate, and the crude birth rate. The first one is derived from the 1971 Census (subset) data on children ever born to ever married women, the second one was estimated by Cho (1976) using the "own children" method, the data of own children being derived from the 1971 Census. Finally the crude birth rates are derived from the age specific fertility rates of the second measure and the city age distributions from 1971 Census (subset).

According to Table 3.7, the mean number of children ever born to ever married women in all the cities increases steadily up to age group 35-39, except in Yogyakarta where it continues to increase up to age group 40-44. For most cities, therefore, the mean number of children ever born falls at age groups of 40-44 and 45-49. It is unlikely that all of this decline is real; it

is more likely to be caused in part by "recall lapse", the fact that women are more inclined to omit births which occurred a long

time in the past. Furthermore, it may also be due to

interviewers forgetting to ask widows and divorcees about their

children ever born. However, the impact of low fertility rates

during the revolutionary years of 1940s may also account for some

of the decline.

Given the strong likelihood of understatement of children

ever born by women at ages 40 and above, children ever born to

women in the age group 15-39 is used to display fertility

differences among the younger women of each city. The index used

is the mean number of children ever born to women aged 15-39. Page 33

The table indicates that Tegal and Pekalongan have relatively the highest fertility rates for women in the age range 15-39 compared to the other cities. The higher fertility rates in Tegal and

Pekalongan are also evident from the higher mean number of children ever born from ages 25 and over. As the singulate mean ages at marriage for these cities are the lowest, the higher fertility in Tegal and Pekalongan may be related to younger ages at first marriage.

Table 3.8 presents the second measure of fertility for the seven cities. The total fertility rate is very similar in five of the seven cities with a somewhat higher rate being observed for Magelang and a somewhat lower rate for Pekalongan. The low total fertility rate for Pekalongan contrasts sharply with the Page 34

Table 3.7

Mean Number of Children Ever Born Born to Ever Married Women of the Seven Cities in Central Java, by Age, 1971

AGE SEM SAL TEG MAG SUR YOG PEK

15-19 .6 .7 .8 .6 .5 .5 .6

20-24 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4

25-29 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.8

30-34 3.5 3.7 4.4 3.6 3.5 3.5 4.0

35-39 4.0 4.7 5.2 4.7 4.3 4.5 5.0

40-44 3.8 4.6 4.9 4.7 4.1 4.9 4.7

45-49 3.9 4.2 4.8 4.1 3.7 4.5 4.6

15-39 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.4

Source: Subset, 1971 Census

Table 3.8

Average Age Specific Fertility Rates and Total Fertility Rates During 1961-1970 for the Seven Cities of Central Java

AGE SEM SAL TEG MAG SUR YOG PEK

15-19 89 78 115 95 80 47 111

20-24 216 215 223 251 228 196 214

25-29 231 232 227 263 234 237 191

30-34 178 198 159 217 181 201 150

35-39 102 119 96 113 99 120 89

40-44 36 36 38 28 38 42 30

45-49 5 11 10 3 8 13 6

TFR*) 4260 4390 4290 4835 4300 4215 3925

Source: Cho, 1976: Table 2. 2 Note :*) Total fertility rate Page 35 higher fertility indicated for this city by the children ever born data while the high fertility for Magelang based on the total fertility rate is less evident from the children ever born data. In general, the levels of fertility indicated by the children ever born data are higher than those based on the total fertility rates. The discrepancies between the levels of fertility in Tables 3.7 and 3.8 may be related to the different time periods to which the estimates apply or, alternatively, may reflect inaccuracy in one or the other set of estimates.

Looking at the more detailed fertility rates presented in this table, the age specific fertility rates in the age range

15-19 are highest for Tegal and Pekalongan. It is likely that this phenomenon is related to younger ages at first marriage.

The younger age at first marriage for Pekalongan is also supported when the age specific fertility rates for the age ranges 20-24 and 25-29 are compared. Except for Pekalongan, the age specific fertility rate for age group 25-29 is the highest age specific rate for all cities. However, for Pekalongan, the age specific fertility rate in the age range 20-24 is highest.

On the other hand, the much lower age specific fertility rates in the age range 15-24 for Yogyakarta are likely related to older age at first marriage.

Given the age specific fertility rates for the seven cities

in the period 1961-1971 (Table 3.8), the estimated average crude birth rates for the period were obtained by multiplying these

rates by the 1971 population age distributions on the assumption

that the age structure would not have changed very much during

the decade. Although the crude birth rate includes the effect of

the age structure of the population, this is the rate which must Page 36 be used in explaining the observed growth of the population during the intercensal decade of 1961-1971.

The estimated annual crude birth rates per thousand for the seven cities are as follows: Semarang (36) , Salatiga (33),

Tegal (33) , Magelang (34) , Surakarta (33) , Yogyakarta (31), and

Pekalongan (32). It is evident that Semarang, which experienced the highest rate of population growth during the 1960s, also had the highest crude birth rate among the seven cities. At the other end of the scale, Yogyakarta and Pekalongan which had the lowest rates of growth also had the lowest crude birth rates. It is interesting also to note the impact of differences in age distributions upon the crude birth rates. For example, although the total fertility rate for Magelang was somewhat higher than that for Semarang, the crude birth rate was higher in Semarang.

3.2 Mortality

The crude death rate is the mortality component of the rate of population growth. However, since death registration statistics are not available, this index has to be estimated using life table age specific death rates, M(X). To produce the life table, Brass" method (1975) , "West" model life tables

(United Nations,1967) and the logit system are to be used. Page 37

3.2.1 Estimation of Life Table

Table 3.9 shows the results of the Brass" method for estimating the proportions dying before the exact ages of 2, 3, and 5, respectively, for children born to women in successive age groups. Each of the Q(X) values are the result of the multiplication of the proportion dead (to the ever born) and the multiplying factor k using P(2) over P(3) as the parameter. This parameter is preferred to P(l) over P(2) because P(l) is sensitive to undercount of children ever born and children still living (Hull et al,1978:15). They presumed that the problem was more likely interviewers "not asking" the question than the women

"not stating" the number of children ever born or still living.

P(l), P(2) and P(3) denote the mean parity (number of children) per woman in the 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 age groups, respectively.

The Q(2), Q(3), and Q(5) values in Table 3.9 provide estimates of child mortality. Since data on adult mortality are not available, it is assumed that the level of the adult mortality can be estimated from the level of child mortality.

Therefore, the average of the "West" levels implied by each Q(X)

value is accepted as the estimate of the level of childhood mortality for each city (column 9). Accordingly, this table

indicates that Yogyakarta has the lowest child mortality whereas

Pekalongan and Tegal have the highest child mortality. The

Indonesian fertility-mortality survey for Central Java (1973:17)

suggested that educational differentials are more substantial

than rural-urban differentials for differences in child

mortality. Page 38

Table 3.9

Estimates of Q (2), Q(3) and Q (5) Using Brass" Method and "West" Level of Mortality, for the Seven Cities of Central Java,1971

CITY NO. OF CEB CSL k Q(X) X WL AWL AND AGE FEMALES

SEM

20-24 31314 23610 21806 1.128 .0862 2 17.6

25-29 24641 53707 47216 1.054 .1274 3 15.5 15.5

30-34 24513 82525 67917 1.046 .1851 5 13.3

SAL

20-24 2492 1852 1632 1.139 .1353 2 14.5

25-29 2280 5110 4440 1.059 .1388 3 14.9 14.6

30-34 2541 9084 7702 1.049 .1596 5 14.5

TEG

20-24 3914 4155 3325 1.092 .2182 2 10.1

25-29 3762 9852 7496 1.038 .2482 3 9.7 10.0

30-34 3540 14273 10700 1.034 .2588 5 10.2

MAG

20-24 3521 2738 2394 1.177 .1478 2 13.7

25-29 3808 10361 9257 1.076 .1147 3 16.2 15.3

30-34 3513 12248 10727 1.060 .1317 5 15.9

SUR

20-24 17434 13526 12267 1.123 .1046 2 16.3

25-29 13334 29185 26009 1.052 .1145 3 16.2 15.8

30-34 13691 44553 38102 1.044 .1512 5 14.8 Page 39

Table 3.9 cont.

YOG

20-24 16625 7572 6976 1.220 .0960 2 16.9

25-29 11331 22212 20246 1.095 .0969 3 17.3 16.7

30-34 9205 29051 25495 1.072 .1312 5 15.9

PEK

20-24 3946 3612 3246 2.311 .2341 2 9.4

25-29 3667 8935 7066 1.046 .2188 3 10.96 9.7

30-34 4662 17328 12354 1.040 .2985 5 8.6

Source: Subset,1971 Census (col.2,3,4) Brass,1975,Table 14 (col.5) Note : CEB=children ever born; CSL=children still living WL="West" level; AWL=average "West" level

It is likely that the lower child mortality in Yogyakarta than in

Pekalongan and Tegal reflects the differences in educational

levels of these places. If the proportion of women with no

schooling in the age group 15-19 to total women in the same age

bracket is taken as an index of education, then for Yogyakarta

this index is 4% compared to 12% for both Tegal and Pekalongan

(Table 3.5).

Based on these "West" levels of mortality for each city, the

proportions of males and females surviving to exact ages 5 and 1

1(5) and 1(1) were estimated. Accordingly, there are 14 values

of 1(5) and 1(1), respectively, for each city. These 1(5) values

are then used to estimate the mortality parameter, "a" , using

the logit system formula :logit 1-1(5) ="a"+"b" logit 1-1(5s)

assuming "b"=l. This means that the relation between the child

mortality and the adult mortality in the derived life tables is

the same as that in the standard life table. The logit 1-1(Xs)

values are shown in Table 3.10. The I(X) values for each city Page 40 are obtained by substituting the estimated "a" into the logit system formula for X=10,15,20,...... 80.

All the I(X) values are then used to estimate the probability of dying between age X and X+l using the formula

I(X+N) Q (X) = 1 ------I(X) where n=5. Lastly, the other values in the life table shown in

Table III.1-III.7 can be derived from these Q(X) values. They

are:

(1) . The number dying at age X last birthday,

D (X) = Q (X) .1 (X)

(2) . The number living at age X last birthday,

L(X) = 2.5 I(X)+ 1 (X+5)

(3) . The central death rate at age X,

D (X) M (X) = ------L (X) Page 41

(4). The five-year survival ratio,

L(X+5) S(X) = ------L(X)

(5). The total population aged X and over,

T(X) = cummulative sum of L(X)

(6). The expectation of life,

T (X) E(X) = ------I(X)

3.2.2 Crude Death Rate

Applying the M(X) values from the life tables to the population of each city at successive age groups, the total number of deaths and the crude death rates are obtained. The

estimated annual crude death rates per one thousand for the seven cities are as follows: Semarang (12), Salatiga (14), Tegal (21),

Magelang (14), Surakarta (12), Yogyakarta (11), and Pekalongan

(21) . It is clearly indicated that Tegal and Pekalongan

experienced much higher death rates compared to the other cities.

The rates of natural increase and the possible explanation

of the differences are discussed below in Chapter 5.

3.3 Conclusion

The interesting point arising out of the analysis in this

chapter is that the crude death rates vary more between cities

than do the crude birth rates. Table 3.10

Standard Logit 1 - I(xs) for Males and females of the Seven Cities in Central Java

AGE MALES FEMALES

5 -.7420 -.8005

10 -.6821 -.7294

15 -.6531 -.7007

20 -.6209 -.6661

25 -.5816 -.6240

30 -.5364 -.5717

35 -.4810 -.5095

40 -.4108 -.4401

45 -.3252 -.3640

50 -.2177 -.2774

55 -.0858 -.1666

60 .0818 -.0054

65 .2837 .1940

70 .5310 .4423

75 .8395 .7425

80 1.2518 1.1306

Source: National Research Council,1979 Page 43

CHAPTER 4

MIGRATION

4.1 Estimation of Net Migration

The 1971 Census (subset) contained three questions relating to migration: province of birth, province of last residence and duration of residence in current province. With this information, intercensal net migration can only be estimated for provinces, and not for cities. Therefore, an indirect method has to be used to estimate intercensal net migration for the seven cities under study: the method is called the survival ratio method.

This method takes mortality into account by using age specific survival ratios to estimate from the 1971 Census

(subset) age distribution how many people were alive in specific age groups at the time of the 1961 Census. These ratios are computed from the L(X) values of the life tables in Tables III.l-

L(X+10) III.7, in the appendix, using the relevant formula ------MX)

The estimated population is obtained by dividing the number of people in a given age interval, say 15-19 year olds in 1971, by the survival ratio of that age group during the ten-year period.

The result is an estimate of the number of 5-9 year olds in 1961. Page 44

61 P(X+10) Actually, the general formula for the estimate is P = ------

L(X+10)

L(X)

However, for the estimate of the population in the age group 71 P + 61 80 70+, the formula is modified to P + = --- 70 T + 80

T 70 Of course, the validity of the estimate is dependent upon the accuracy of the age specific survival ratios.

Details of the estimated 1961 population are given in Tables

4.1-4.7. The total number of the estimated 1961 population is then compared with the enumerated total number of population at the 1961 Census; and the difference is taken as an estimate of the net number of migrants during the period, 1961-1971. The annual intercensal net migration rates for each city are then

0.1 (the net number of migrants) calculated using the formula: ------61 71 0.5 (P + P ) 61 71 where P and P are the total populations at the census dates of

1961 and 1971.

Table 4.8 (column 6) shows the average annual rates of net migration for the seven cities in Central Java. It indicates that most cities experienced outmigration in the period

1961-1971. Page 45

Table 4.1

Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in Semarang

AGE SURVIVAL RATIO *) 1971 POPULATION 1961 ESTIM. POP.*

Males Females Males Females Males Females

0 - 4 .94721 .94625 40,109 37,567 42,344 39,701

5 - 9 .97571 .97634 33,729 35,822 34,569 36,690

10-14 .97690 .97788 25,557 31,314 26,161 32,022

15-19 .97123 .97123 18,688 24,641 19,242 25,371

20-24 .96352 .96215 20,254 24,513 21,021 25,477

25-29 .95176 .95146 20,026 23,886 21,041 25,105

30-34 .93429 .93986 18,451 17,512 19,749 18,633

35-39 .90941 .92567 13,628 14,892 14,986 16,088

40-44 .87340 .90259 10,277 12,392 11,767 13,729

45-49 .82034 .85594 7,498 8,411 9,140 9,827

50-54 .74594 .77940 4,868 6,305 6,526 8,090

55-59 .65053 .68012 2,992 4,376 4,599 6,434

60-64 .53380 .56175 1,859 2,958 3,483 5,266

65-69 .39762 .42816 566 1,151 1,423 2,688

70-74 .17312 .18958 875 1,577 5,054 8,318

Total 241,105 273,439

Note:*) Ten year survival ratio * Estimated population Page 46

Table 4.2

Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in Salatiga

AGE SURVIVAL RATIO *) 1971 POPULATION 1961 ESTIM . POP.*

Males Females Males Females Males Females

0 - 4 .93974 .93691 4,821 4,560 5,130 4,867

5 - 9 .97274 97326 4,060 4,560 5,130 4,716

10-14 .97409 .97507 2,450 2,492 2,515 2,556

15-19 .96783 .96759 1,600 2,280 1,653 2,356

20-24 .95931 .95746 1,840 2,541 1,918 2,654

25-29 .94637 .94558 1,902 2,670 2,010 2,824

30-34 .93732 .93282 2,290 1,901 2,469 2,038

35-39 .90047 .91744 1,391 1,591 1,545 1,734

40-44 .86204 .89237 1,311 1,201 1,521 1,346

45-49 .80626 .84232 771 1,000 956 1,188

50-54 .72954 .76210 550 680 754 892

55-59 .63338 .66087 320 531 505 803

60-64 .51831 .54347 251 590 484 1,086

65-69 .38623 .41398 140 140 362 338

70-74 .16824 .18316 140 200 832 1,092

Total 26,888 30,883

Note:*) Ten year survival ratio * Estimated population Page 47

Table 4.3

Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in Tegal

AGE SURVIVAL RATIO*) 1971 POPULATION 1961 ESTIM . POP.*

Males Females Males Females Males Females

0 - 4 .89237 .89207 7,252 6,835 8,127 7,662

5 - 9 .95561 .95551 7,110 6,664 7,440 6,974

10-14 .96090 .95907 5,104 3,914 5,312 4,081

15-19 .95404 .94748 3,279 3,762 3,437 3,971

20-24 .93877 .93211 2,428 3,540 2,586 3,798

25-29 .91742 .91471 2,794 3,907 3,045 4,271

30-34 .89070 .89696 2,912 3,341 3,269 3,724

35-39 .85479 .87655 2,393 2,254 2,800 2,571

40-44 .80630 .84449 2,086 2,047 2,587 2,424

45-49 .74100 .78289 1,156 1,557 1,560 1,989

50-54 .65849 .69147 932 955 1,415 1,381

55-59 .56431 .58809 383 566 679 962

60-64 .46031 .47859 363 364 789 761

65-69 .34606 .36625 163 142 471 388

70-74 .15175 .16266 261 122 1,720 750

Total 45,237 45,707

Note:*) Ten year survival ratio * Estimated population Page 48

Table 4.4

Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in Magelang

AGE SURVIVAL RATIO*) 1971 POPULATION 1961 ESTIM . POP.*

Males Females Males Females Males Females

0 - 4 .94739 .94441 6,829 6,808 7,208 7,209

5 - 9 .97507 .97579 6,563 6,317 6,731 6,474

10-14 .97625 .97739 3,726 3,521 3,817 3,602

15-19 .97044 .97049 3,297 3,803 3,397 3,919

20-24 .96259 .96117 3,638 3,513 3,779 3,655

25-29 .95064 .95024 3,281 3,790 3,451 3,988

30-34 .93280 .93836 3,830 3,174 4,106 3,382

35-39 .90746 .92389 2,953 2,264 3,264 2,451

40-44 .87095 .90041 2,289 1,652 2,628 1,835

45-49 .81730 .85306 1,434 1,063 1,755 1,246

50-54 .74238 .77566 936 1,587 1,261 2,046

55-59 .64670 .67588 696 841 1,076 1,244

60-64 .53024 .55770 387 720 730 1,291

65-69 .39499 .42499 165 248 418 584

70-74 .17201 .18812 248 475 1,442 2,525

Total 45,053 45,453

Note:*) Ten year survival ratio * Estimated population Page 49

Table 4.5

Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in Surakarta

AGE SURVIVAL RATIO*) 1971 POPULATION 1961 ESTIM. POP.*

Males Females Males Females Males Females

0 - 4 .94954 .94904 25,649 26,820 27,008 28,260

5 - 9 .97655 .97738 23,336 26,518 23,896 27,132

10-14 .97769 .97887 16,971 17,434 17,358 17,810

15-19 .97221 .97246 11,382 13,334 11,707 13,712

20-24 .96475 .96372 10,556 13,691 10,952 14,206

25-29 .95337 .95336 10,850 13,845 11,381 14,522

30-34 .93646 .94209 10,534 13,339 11,249 14,159

35-39 .91230 .92835 8,804 9,949 9,650 10,717

40-44 .87712 .90594 7,853 9,069 8,953 10,011

45-49 .82496 .86039 5,772 6,117 6,997 7,110

50-54 .75144 .78515 3,955 5,473 5,263 6,971

55-59 .65639 .68668 2,756 3,172 4,199 4,619

60-64 .53915 .56816 2,216 3,280 4,110 5,773

65-69 .40164 .43326 680 1,060 1,693 2,447

70-74 .17489 .19191 1,075 2,085 6,147 395

Total 160,563 177,844

Note:*) Ten year survival ratio * Estimated population Page 50

Table 4.6

Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in Yogyakarta

AGE SURVIVAL RATIO*) 1971 POPULATION 1961 ESTIM. POP.*

Males Females Males Females Males Females

0 - 4 .95302 .95739 19,737 20,104 20,710 20,999

5 - 9 .97948 .98036 24,262 22,955 24,770 23,415

10-14 .98040 .98155 21,327 16,625 21,753 16,937

15-19 .97552 .97591 12,429 11,331 12,741 11,611

20-24 .96882 .96823 9,282 9,205 9,581 9,507

25-29 .95859 .95907 8,299 10,716 8,658 11,173

30-34 .94327 .94902 7,747 9,314 8,213 9,814

35-39 .92116 .93658 6,633 7,942 7,201 8,480

40-44 .88869 .91610 5,332 6,179 6,000 6,745

45-49 .83985 .87418 4,648 4,225 5,534 4,833

50-54 .76944 .80366 3,447 4,267 4,480 5,309

55-59 .67586 .70841 1,876 2,453 2,776 3,463

60-64 .55741 .58983 1,534 2,671 2,752 4,528

65-69 .41559 .45088 391 635 941 1,408

70-74 .18107 .20012 517 1,552 2,855 7,755

Total 138,965 145,977

Note:*) Ten year survival ratio * Estimated population Page 51

Table 4.7

Survival Ratio, 1971 Population, and 1961 Estimated Population, by Age and Sex, in Pekalongan

AGE SURVIVAL RATIO*) 1971 POPULATION 1961 ESTIM . POP.*

Males Females Males Females Males Females

0 - 4 .88898 .88870 6,583 5,690 7,405 6,403

5 - 9 .95443 .95433 6,306 6,690 6,607 7,010

10-14 .95721 .95794 4,181 3,946 4,368 4,119

15-19 .94747 .94607 3,357 3,667 3,543 3,876

20-24 .93461 .93043 3,378 4,662 3,614 5,011

25-29 .91561 .91276 3,926 5,001 4,288 5,479

30-34 .88845 .89470 3,777 3,547 4,251 3,964

35-39 .85204 .87399 2,641 2,464 3,100 2,819

40-44 .80310 .84162 2,182 2,422 2,717 2,878

45-49 .73744 .77950 1,191 1,121 1,615 1,438

50-54 .65482 .68658 878 1,341 1,341 1,953

55-59 .56096 .58232 448 461 799 792

60-64 .45764 .47456 422 560 922 1,180

65-69 .34433 .36413 63 120 183 330

70-74 .15101 .16175 100 280 662 1,731

Total 45,415 48,983

Note:*) Ten year survival ratio * Estimated population Page 52

Table 4.8

The Calculation of the Average Annual Rates of Net Migration During 1961-1971, for the Seven Cities in Central Java

CITY 1961 POPULATION 1971 POP. MIGRANTS* RATE*)

EST. CENSUS + N> SEM 514,544 503,153 641,795 +11,391 •

SAL 57,373 58,135 69,668 - 757 -.1

TEG 90,944 89,016 105,481 + 1,928 + .2

MAG 90,506 96,454 109,938 - 5,948 -.6

SUR 338,407 367,626 413,077 -29,219 -.7

YOG 284,942 312,698 340,908 -27,756 -.8

PEK 94,398 102,380 110,865 - 7,982 -.7

Note: * number of net migrants ♦annual rate of net migration (%) EST.=estimated

4.2 Characteristics of Inmigrants from Other Provinces

As mentioned above, inmigrants to the cities of Central Java from within the province of Central Java cannot be separately identified from the 1971 Census results. Moreover, it is not possible to identify persons who moved out of the cities of

Central Java, whether to another part of the province or outside of the province. The only group of migrants which can be examined from the Census tape are inmigrants to the seven cities of Central Java who came from other provinces. This section examines the characteristics of these inmigrants. It should be remembered, however, that many of these inmigrants may in fact have been return migrants, that is former residents of the city who moved to another province but have since returned. Page 53

To enable some degree of comparison with the net migration estimates in the previous section, this study of inmigrants is restricted to persons who were aged 10 and over, who had ever migrated and who had lived in the current residence for less than

10 years at the time of the 1971 Census.

Due to the limitations of the data, not only net migration, but also some characteristics of inmigrants have to be measured indirectly. This measurement can be made by studying the characteristics of inmigrants at the time of the census, for example, age at migration was estimated from current age and duration of residence at the time of the census. The number and distribution by sex of the inmigrants to the seven cities is set out in Table 4.9. Yogyakarta had the highest number of inmigrants, probably reflecting the attraction of the city"s centres of higher education. However the high figure for

Yogyakarta City compared with the other cities is somewhat misleading as it includes migrants from the province of Central

I Java, while these migrants are not included for other cities.

Generally, however, the number of inmigrants to these cities from other provinces was small. In Salatiga, Magelang, Tegal and

Yogyakarta, all of which contain educational institutions which

attract students from all over Indonesia, the number of male

inmigrants was much greater than the number of female inmigrants.

For the other three cities, the numbers of males and females

among the inmigrants were rather similar. Page 54

Table 4.9

Number and Sex of Inmigrants to the Seven Cities of Central Java from other Provincies, 1961-1971.

CITY Males Females Total

Semarang 13191 14215 27406

Salatiga 1170 680 1850

Tegal 3461 1692 5153

Magelang 4940 3279 8219

Surakarta 10674 9317 19991

Yogyakarta 31754 20050 51806

Pekalongan 1217 1003 2220

Total 66407 50236 116643

Source: Subset, 1971 Census.

4.2.1 Age at Migration and Sex

As the estimate of age at migration was based on the population aged 10 and over, the proportion of those migrating at ages less than 10 years indicates a smaller percentage than if the population in the age group 0-9 had been included (Table

4.10). Page 55

Table 4.10

Percentage Distribution of Migrants to the Seven Cities in Central Java from other Provincies by Age at Migration, 1971.

AGE AT SEM SAL TEG MAG SUR YOG PEK MIGRATION

0- 4 1.8 2.2 3.1 2.4 2.5 1.1 5.5

5- 9 8.4 5.4 9.7 11.0 10.6 4.8 6.4

10-14 9.8 11.9 8.2 11.4 11.9 11.6 10.1

15-19 19.6 15.7 27.6 14.5 18.5 36.0 15.7

20-24 19.0 22.2 16.8 18.0 16.9 23.4 18.8

25-29 12.5 14.1 9.8 14.3 11.9 7.7 12.5

30-34 10.4 9.2 8.2 11.6 9.5 4.9 14.4

35-39 7.1 7.6 3.5 7.4 6.7 3.2 6.1

40-44 4.3 4.3 5.1 4.6 4.5 2.6 3.1

45 + 7.2 7.6 7.8 4.8 7.0 4.5 7.4

Total: % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

N 27406 1850 5153 8219 19991 51804 2220

Source: Subset, 1971 Census. Note: N = Number.

The larger proportions of inmigrants in age groups 15-19 and

20-24 shown in this table suggest that the age range from 15-24

is the most likely one for people to move to the seven cities in

this study. After age 25, the table indicates a steadily

decreasing proportion of inmigrants with advancing age. This

tendency implies that it is easier for people to move during the

age range 15-24 rather than later in life, presumably because of

the lack of commitments. As a general phenomenon, those in this

age category are single people and/or married persons without

children or with a small number of children. Page 56

Based on the proportion of inmigrants aged less than 20,

Table 4.10 shows that Yogyakarta(53.5), Tegal(48.6), and

Surakarta(43.5) had relatively younger inmigrants than the other cities (Semarang:39.6; Salatiga:35.2; Magelang:39.3). At least in the cases of Yogyakarta and Tegal, this was related to the high number of 15-19 year old male inmigrants who made up almost a quarter of the total movement to these cities from other provinces (Table 4.11).

4.2.2 Marital Status and Duration of Residence

Table 4.12 points out that only three cities have a higher proportion of inmigrants of single status compared to those of married status. These cities are, in order of highest to lowest,

Yogyakarta, Tegal, and Salatiga, all of which had a large excess of males in the movement. This indication is contrary to the expectation that migration is dominated by those who are still unmarried. Page 57

Table 4.11

Percentage of Inmigrants to the Seven Cities in Central Java from Other Provinces, by Sex and Age at Migration,1971

CITY A G E A T M I G R A T I 0 N AND SEX 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45+ TOTAL*

SEM ' M 1.0 4.0 4.4 7.3 9.7 7.1 4.9 4.1 2.3 3.3 F .8 4.4 5.4 12.3 9.3 5.4 5.5 2.9 1.9 3.9 27406

SAL M 1.1 2.7 8.1 6.5 15.1 10.3 7.0 5.9 2.7 3.8 F 1.1 2.7 3.8 9.2 7.0 3.8 2.2 1.6 1.6 3.8 1850

TEG M 1.6 5.1 4.7 24.1 12.1 6.3 3.5 2.0 2.8 5.1 F 1.6 4.7 3.5 3.5 4.7 3.5 4.7 1.6 2.4 2.7 5153

MAG M 1.0 5.7 5.7 8.0 11.0 8.5 8.3 5.8 3.8 2.2 F 1.3 5.3 5.8 6.5 6.9 5.8 3.3 1.6 .8 2.6 8219

SUR M 1.6 4.8 5.7 8.6 9.6 7.0 4.8 4.4 3.1 3.8 F .9 5.8 6.2 9.9 7.3 4.9 4.7 2.3 1.4 3.2 19991

YOG M .6 2.3 6.3 23.7 15.9 4.3 2.7 1.7 1.3 2.3 F .5 2.5 5.4 12.3 7.5 3.4 2.2 1.5 1.3 2.2 51804

PEK M 3.6 5.5 6.4 5.7 9.6 5.9 7.9 3.4 2.2 4.7 F 1.8 .9 3.7 10.0 9.1 6.6 6.5 2.7 .9 2.7 2220

Source: Subset, 1971 Census Note : * total number of males (M) and females (F) Page 58

Table 4.12

Percentage Distribution of Inmigrants to the Seven Cities in Central Java from Other Provinces by Current Age, Duration of Residence,Marital Status,and Activities,1971

CHARACTER­ SEM SAL TEG MAG SUR YOG PEK ISTICS

AGE

10-14 11.1 12.4 13.2 14.4 15.0 9.4 13.7

15-29 49.5 51.3 54.3 41.6 45.9 69.5 45.6

30-44 27.7 25.4 20.3 35.5 28.8 14.1 31.9

454- 11.6 10.8 12.2 8.4 10.3 5.7 8.8

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

DURATION OF RESIDENCE

0-4 27.8 31.5 42.3 21.1 28.1 43.9 24.4

5-9 20.1 15.9 21.8 25.1 25.5 16.9 17.8

104- 52.1 52.6 35.9 53.8 46.4 39.2 57.8

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

MARITAL STATUS

Single 44.2 52.4 58.5 37.5 44.2 67.1 38.0

Married 49.5 43.8 33.3 58.3 49.5 28.7 55.1

Widowed and divorced 6.3 3.8 8.2 4.2 6.3 4.2 6.9

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

ACTIVITIES (pop. aged 15-■29)

Working 44.5 49.5 20.8 42.0 41.2 17.4 50.2

Looking for work 6.2 2.1 3.6 1.9 5.9 1.5 4.0 Page 59

Table 4.12 cont.

Schooling 24.7 31.6 56.8 27.1 25.7 69.1 8.4

House­ keeping 20.5 15.8 15.1 24.2 21.3 9.1 36.2

Others 4.1 1.1 3.6 4.8 5.9 2.9 1.1

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Subset, 1971 Census

In fact, however, this phenomenon is related to the age of the inmigrants. The table indicates that the seven cities have the largest proportion of inmigrants in the age group of 15-29.

Cities having a larger proportion of inmigrants in this age group are also the cities which had a larger proportion of inmigrants in the single state. In addition, the table indicates that the second largest proportion of inmigrants is in the age group of

30-44. Cities having a relatively high proportion in this age group are also the cities having a high proportion in the married state.

It is interesting to note that the table also indicates a close relationship between proportions single and duration of residence. The larger the proportion single, the higher the proportion of inmigrants who had been resident for less than 5 years. As single status is closely related to younger age, the relationship between duration of residence and single status may confirm the fact that inmigrants were mostly young and single. Page 60

4.3 Motives for Moving

In some ways the characteristics of migrants are closely

related to the purposes for moving. It was found, for example,

in a survey of rural-urban migration in Indonesia, that the

principal motives of the young adult urban migrants for moving were schooling and looking for a job (Suharso et al,1976:35).

The examination of these specific motives for moving to the seven

cities can to some extent be inferred from the estimated age at migration.

The above mentioned survey concluded that rural migration to

large cities tends to be for work whereas migration to small

cities tends to be for school. For the purposes of that survey,

among the cities studied here, Semarang and Yogyakarta were

classified in the large city category, whereas Tegal and

Surakarta were classified in the small city category. 1)

However, among large cities Yogyakarta is an exception because it

is a centre of higher educational institutions. Many people had

moved there for the purpose of study.

Since Table 4.10 shows only interprovincial inmigrants, the

high proportion in the age range 15-24 in Yogyakarta almost

certainly reflects movement to both high schools as well as

tertiary education institutions. Surprisingly, the second

largest proportion in this age range is indicated for Tegal, but

it should be remembered that the overall number of inmigrants to

Tegal was small, so that one or two educational institutions may

have a large effect. Moreover, at least in the cases of Salatiga

1) It should be noted that this classification is somewhat strange as, at the 1971 Census, the population of Surakarta was considerably larger than that of Yogyakarta. Page 61 and Magelang, the higher proportion in age group 20-24 than 15-19 probably reflects a movement to the two prominent tertiary education institutions in these cities; Satyawacana University in the case of Salatiga and the Indonesian Military Academy for the case of Magelang.

In order of importance, the most probable reasons for moving to these seven cities were working, schooling and housekeeping

(refers mostly to housewives following husbands), as reflected by the activities being performed by inmigrants aged 15-29 according to the 1971 Census (Table 4.12). This conclusion in fact is contrary to the expectation that the main reason for moving to the seven cities was for schooling, except in the cases of

Yogyakarta and Tegal. However,many of those currently working may have moved to further their schooling, and then taken a job. Page 62

CHAPTER 5

CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS

It is not easy to explain observed differences in population growth in terms of non demographic factors. For example,

Semarang and Yogyakarta indicate a great difference in population growth even though both are capital cities of the same level of administrative unit. Moreover, Yogyakarta indicates only a slightly higher rate of growth compared to Pekalongan although

there are many more higher education institutions in Yogyakarta

than in Pekalongan assuming that such institutions promote growth

through migration.

The demographic components of population growth for the

seven cities are summarized in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1

Rates and Components of Population Growth for the Seven Cities of Central Java

CHARACTERISTICS SEM SAL TEG MAG SUR YOG PER

1.Observed rate of 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.2 .9 .8 growth(r)

2.Crude birth rate 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.2

3.Crude death rate 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.4 1.2 1.1 2.1

4.Crude net + .2 -.1 + .2 -.6 -.7 -.8 -.7 migration rate

5.Estimated rate of 2.6 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 .4 growth(r")

Note: r"=(2)-(3)+or-(4)

The estimated rates (r") of population growth are similar to

those observed (r), except in the cases of Tegal, Pekalongan and Page 63

Yogyakarta. In proportional terms, the greatest difference applies for Pekalongan. The rank order of the rates is also slightly changed if r" is used, that is, the rates for Magelang and Surakarta are no longer lower than that for Tegal but become the same. Given the wide possibilities for error in the estimated rates of growth the observed rates of growth are likely to be more reliable.

The fertility estimate is evidently the cause of the great difference between the observed and the estimated rates of growth. That is, the crude birth rates for Tegal and Pekalongan in particular may be too low. If they were as high as that for

Semarang, the estimated rates of growth for these cities would become the same as those observed. In fact, higher fertility rates than those estimated by Cho et al (1976) for Tegal and

Pekalongan are suggested by the 1971 Census fertility levels based on children ever born (see Chapter 3). However, this argument cannot be applied to the discrepancy in the two rates of growth for Yogyakarta. In this case, the discrepancy may be related to difficulties of measurement in a population with a high turnover of students.

Two points stand out in Table 5.1, namely, the high mortality for Tegal and Pekalongan and the loss of population

through migration for most of the cities. There are a number of possible reasons for the high mortality rates applying in Tegal

and Pekalongan. Firstly, these are both northern coastal cities where the standard of living is very low. The workforce of these

two cities is heavily engaged in manufacturing industry (46% in

Pekalongan and 25% in Tegal) which is usually small scale manufacturing paying very low wages. Secondly, as the levels of Page 64 mortality have been based on estimates of child mortality, the lower education levels of women in these two cities probably plays an important role because childhood mortality is strongly

related to the mother"s education. Thirdly, it has been observed

that women in the southern areas of Central Java practice long periods of breast-feeding and while data for the northern areas

are difficult to obtain, it is likely that the average length of

breast-feeding is shorter in the north. Finally, it is

interesting to note that the Indonesian Sample Vital Registration

Project found very high mortality rates applying in Kabupaten

Pekalongan, the rural area surrounding the city (Central Bureau

of Statistics,1979:81).

To investigate whether the low growth rates and the observed

outmigration were due to spillover growth into the areas outside

the designated city boundaries, the pace of growth of the

population in the surrounding areas was examined. The selected

areas are Kabupatens Semarang, Tegal, Magelang, Sukoharjo, Sleman

and Pekalongan for the cities of Semarang, Tegal, Magelang,

Surakarta, Yogyakarta, and Pekalongan, respectively. The

observed rates of population growth per annum during the

intercensal decade 1961-1971 for these kabupaten were as follows:

1.8%(Semarang), 1.3%(Tegal), 1.5%(Magelang), 2.0%(Sukoharjo),

1.3%(Sleman) and 1.6%(Pekalongan). However, when the examination

was extended to the kecamatan level, some high growth rates were

observed (see appendix Tables V.1-V.6). The high rate of growth

for Ungaran(3.1%) in kabupaten Semarang while it may reflect

development of a commuting area for Semarang, is undoubtly also

due to the separate development of Ungaran through the location

of many new factories in the area. For the cities of Tegal, Page 65

Pekalongan and Magelang, the nearby kecamatans of

Kedungbanteng(2.6%), Talun(3.4%) and Mertoyudan(3.3%) experienced high rates of growth. In fact, the administration of the city of

Tegal is presently attempting to have the boundaries of the city extended (personal communication with Walikota, Tegal).

Mertoyudan, on the other hand is located on the busy road linking

Magelang with Yogyakarta which has experienced a lot of industrial development (McDonald, 1976:70). It is worth noting that 70 % of all kecamatans in kabupaten Sukoharjo grew at more than 2%, in most cases reflecting the growth of the city of

Surakarta beyond its boundaries. Although the data for kabupaten

Sleman do not reflect city growth beyond the official boundary of the city of Yogyakarta, overspill, for this city has been documented at the kecamatan level. McDonald (1976:77) has observed that kecamatan Depok not only grew at the fastest rate

(3.0%) but is located also close to the city.

Examining each component of growth, Table 5.1 suggests that for Semarang, fertility and inmigration play important roles in fixing the higher rate of growth. Compared to the other cities,

Semarang has the most large-scale industry. In addition it is the capital city of the province and is a port city. These are factors inducing migration to Semarang. Looking at the population density which is fourth lowest, Semarang may be regarded as still having enough space for population to grow.

For Tegal and Pekalongan, the high mortality rates have depressed

their rate of growth. The lower rates of growth for Magelang and

Surakarta were determined by outmigration at least in the latter case probably reflecting movement to the surrounding areas. For

Yogyakarta the low fertility and spillover growth to the Page 66 surrounding areas seem to be the most probable reasons for the low rate of population growth. Table II 1.1 ,\bri (i r eri life Table Page 67 b e - ’M r 1 nr , 1 71

Fema’l e

age: ü ( x ) n c x ) h ( x) i < x > l. ( x ) s ( x ) i ex > E(X)

0 0.00770 8 7 7 0 . . 09332 100000 , 93976. . 89831 5190606. 5 1 . 9 1 1 0.01570 1 I 6 9 . .01171 9 1 2 3 0 . 3 5 5 t 9 7. . 95973 5396630. 59 . 1 5 5 0.01 ? <10 1689 . . 00392 87061. 131082 . . 98595 5011138. 5 7 . 9 l 10 0.00860 731 . . 00.1.73 85372. 125021. . 99025 16 1.0357 . 51.00 15 0.01090 923 . . 00219 81638. 120882. .98751 1.1.85333 . 19.15 20 0 . 01110 1 180 . .00281 83715. 115621 . .98352 3761152. 11.9 7 95 0.01890 1560 . .00382 82535, 108771. .97028 3318827. 1 0.5 7 30 0.02160 1992 . . 00198 8 0 9 7 5 . 399891. .97259 7910051 . 3 6 . 31 35 0.030 30 2393 . . 0061.5 78983. 388931. .96635 2510160 . 3 2 . 16 10 0.03710 2811 . . 00756 7 6 5 9 0 , 07581 ^ . .95790 a 11. I a a 9 . 2 8 . 09 15 - 0.01730 3188 ., 00969 7 3 7 1 8 . 3 60 0 20 . . 91226 1775381 . 2 1 . 07 7 / (J "> Z *> 50 0 . 06870 182 7 . .01123 7 0 2 6 0 . \ . »8 / A*.. %./ A- ♦ . 90039 Ill 5361 . 2 0 . 11

55 0 . 1 1620 7603 .. 02167 6 5 1 3 3 . 3 0 8 1 5 7 . . 85000 1 . 076.1 32 . J 6 . 15 60 0.17120 V 9 0 0 .. 03715 5 7 8 3 0 . 2 61 3 97 . . 79268 767975 . 1 3.28 65 0.25090 12025. . 05738 4 7 9 2 9 . 2 09 5 83 .. 70867 503578. 1 0.51 70 0 . 31530 12398 .. 08317 3 5 9 0 1 . 118525 . . 60117 2 93996 . 8 . 1.9 .....75 0 . 17300 11118. . 12390 - 23506. 89735 . ♦ 38311 115171. . 6 . 19 '•> o n '•> /. r i- 7 7 / GO 1 . 00000 12388 . ♦ A.. A.. A- V. 1.) 12388 . 5 5 7 3 6 . .00000 % J \ J / a.; O ♦ 1 . 50

M ale

AGE U< X ) Ii ( X ) M t X ) I ( X ) 1. ( X ) 8 ( X ) I ( X ) I: ( X )

0 ■ 0.10510 105 U) . . 1 1 J 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 . 92958. ,87956 5255256. 5 2 . 55 1 0.01700 1206 . . 01 213 89190. 316822. .96070 5 .1 62298 , 5 7,6 9 5 0 .0 1 8 4 0 1 5 69 , .00371 85281. 12219 7. .90596 1815475. 56.4 6 10 0 . 00960 801 . .00193 83715. 1 16 5 6 5 . .98960 4392978. 5 2 . 18 15 0.01120 929 . .00225 02911. 11.2231 , .98716 3976114. 17.96 70 0.01150 1 189 . , 00792 8.1982 . 1 06 9 4 1 . . 98386 3561180 . 13.17 25 0.01780 1 138 . . 00359 80791. 1 00 3 7 3 . . 9 7933 3157239. 39.08 30 0 . 02360 1 8 , 3 . .00170 79356. 392096. . 97185 2756866. 3 1 . 71 35 0 . 03280 7 5 41 . , 0066 7 7 7 1 8 3 . 3 8 1 0 6 0 . . 96.135 2361770. 3 0 . 52 40 0 , O il 70 3350 . .00911 7 1 9 4 1 . 3 6 6 3 3 2 . . 91597 1983709 . 2 6 , 17 45 0 . 06380 4568 . .01318 71591 . 3 1 6 5 3 9 . . 92329 1. 617377 . a '•> cr 9 50 0 . 09050 V*) 0 6 X . . 0.189 6 6 7 0 2 1 . 3 1 9 9 5 6 . .08850 1270839 . 1 8 . 96 55 0.13160 8205 .. 02886 6 0 9 5 8 . 2 8 1 2 7 9 . .83956 950883 . 15.60

60 0.19030 10039 . .01206 52753. 238669. .77185 666604 . 1 2 . 61 65 0.26820 11156 . . 06195 1 2 7 1 1 . 101932 . . 68091 427935 . 10.02 70 0.36970 11556 . .09071 3 1 2 5 0 . 127101 . .57718 243003. 7.77 75 0 . 50710 9 9 9 1 . . 13587 19702 . 7 3 5 3 3 . . 3639 1. 1 1.5602 . 5 . 8 7 BO 1 . 00000 9 7 1 t . . 23081 “ ' l l . 1 2 0 6 8 . . 00000 42068 . 1 . 3 3 Table ITT.2 Abridged life Table Page 68 S alati^a , 1971

Female

AGE Q < X > n (x ) M< X) I ( X) L. ( X ) 8 ( X ) T < X > E ( X )

0 -0.09840 98 40 . .10518 100000. 93557. .88572 5270771. 52.71 J 0.05430 4(396 . .01402 90160. 349302. .95207 51 772.14 . 5 7.4 2 5 0.02200 1876 . .00445 85264. 421632. .98408 4827912. 56.62 19 0.009 70 809. .00195 03308. 414920. .98901 4406280. 52.84 lb 0.01230 1 0 16 . .00240 82580. 410359. ♦98591 3991360. 48.33 20 0.01590 1297. .00321 81564. 404577. .98142 3581001. 43.90 ~ 25 - 0.02130 1710 ; .00431 80267. 397061. .97558 3176424. 3 V .57 30 0.02760 2168 . .00560 78557. 387366. . 9692 4 2779363. 35.38 35 0.03400 259 7 . .00692 76389. 375453. .96241 2391996. 31.31 4 0 0.04130 304 8 . .00843 73792. 36 1341. . 95327 2016544. 27.33 45 0.05240 3707 . .01076 70744. 344454. .93612 .1 655203 . 23.4 0 50 0.07600 5095. .01580 67037 * 322450. .89980 1310749. 19.55 55 —0.12640 7830. .02699 61942. 290139. .84698 988299. 15.96 60 0 . 18350 9930 . .04041 54113. 245740. .78027 698 1 6.1. . 1 2.90 65 0.26410 11669, . 06086 44183. 191744♦ ,69652 452420. 10.24 70 0.35700 11608. .08691 32514 . 133553. .59435 260676. 8.02 75 0.48130 10062♦ .12677 20907. 79378. .37558 12 71 2 3 . 6.08 80 1.00000 10844 . ♦ na .. '*>d, 7/ 1JL 2)x 10844. 47745. .00000 47745. 4.40

Mai e

AGE Q ( X ) I- ( X > M ( X ) I ( X ) L. ( X ) S ( X ) f C X ) E ( X )

0 0.11700 11700. . 12695 100000. 92161. .86505 5047672. 50.4 8 1 0.05490 4848. .01424 88300. 340363. .95478 4v55511, 56 . 12 5 0.02060 t 71 9 . .00416 83452. 412964, .98425 4615148. 55.30 10 0.01080 883. . 002.17 81733. 406459. .98830 4202184. 51.41 15 0.01260 1019. .00254 80850. 401706. ♦98561 3795725. 46,95 20 0.01620 1293 . .00327 79832. 395926. .98197 3394019. 42.51 25 0.01990 1563. .00402 78539. 388785. .97693 2998093. 38.17 30 0.02630 2024 . . 00533 76976. 379017. .96872 2609308. 33.90 35 - 0.03640 2728. -.00741 74951 . 367935. .95727 2229491, 29 . 75 4 0 0.04930 3561 . . 01011 7 * : > '} '? 7 , 35221 3-. . 94066 1861556. 25 , 78 4 5 0.06990 4799 . . 01449 68662 . 33.1313 . ,91641 1.50934 3 . 21.98 50 0.09830 6278 . .02068 63863. 303620. . 87979 11.78030 , 18,45 r: cr q 0 g n n sJ J 0.14 450 8321 . .03115 57585 . 267123. ♦ O A,. / id. A- 874410 . .1.5 . 18 60 0.20150 9927 . .04482 49264 . 221504 . .76383 607287 . 1 2 . 3 3 65 0.27960 10999 , .06501 39337 . 169190 . .67857 385784 . 9 . HI 70 0 . 37950 10755 . .09367 28339 . 114807. . 56919 216594. 7 . 64 75 0 . 51350 9029 . . 13818 17584 . 65347 . .35800 101787. 5 . 7 9 80 1 . 00000 0 ' ■ 5 , .23476 8555. 36440. . 00000 36440. 4 . 26 Ta Me I I I , 7, 7 \ ri'\ v v<\ I.i f e 7 ab 1 e Tr/v.-r, ]°71 Page 69

F e e rIh

a nr: g n l cx> sex) n x ) e::

0 0 . 16190 16190. . 10094 100000 . 89477. . 80272 4225813 . 42 . 26

1 0 . 10560 0850 . .02838 83810. 31188 4 . . 91659 4136336 . 4 9.35

5 0,03690 27 66. . 00752 74960. 367883. .97326 3824452. 5 1 , 02

10 0.01620 1 1.70 . .00327 72194 . 35804 4 . , 98177 3456569 . 4 7 . 88

15 0 . 02030 1 4 4 2 . .00410 71024 . 351516 . . 97688 3098524 . 4 3 . 63

• 20 0.02600 1809. . 00527 69582. 343389 .. 96990 2747008 . 39 , 48 n i ' ) r-; 25 0 . 03430 •L. O a.. v j ♦ . 00698 67773 . 333054 . .96103 2403620 . 35 . 4 7

30 0 . 04380 2867 . .00896 65449. 320076. . 95180 2070565. 31.64 35 0.05280 3304. .01085 62582. 304649♦ .94238 1750489. 27.97

40 0.06270 3717 , .01295 59278. 287096. .93014 1445840. 2 4 . 39 4 5 0.07750 4 306. . 016 1 2 55561 ♦ 267040. .90791 1158744. 20.86 — 50 0.10790 5530. .02201 51255. 242449. .86230 891704. J. 7.40

55 0.17110 7023 . .03742 45725. 209064 . .80189 649256. .14. 20

60 0.23070 874 4 ♦ . 05216 37901. 167646. .73339 440192. 1 1. . 61

65 ~ 0.31330 9135 . . 07430 29157. 122949. ♦ OAS a.. \.) U 272546. 9 . 35

70 0.39710 7951 . . 09910 20022. 80234 . .56122 149597. 7 . 47

75 0.50790 6 1 31 . ,13616 12071 . 45030 . .35081 69363. 5.75

CO 1.00000 594 0 . .24412 5940 . 24333. . 00000 24333 . 4.10

bale

AGE Q ( X > Li ( X ) M< X ) I ( X ) 1... ( X ) S < X ) I ( X ) 1." < X )

0 0.18950 18950 . .21706 100000. 87304. .77746 4025716. 4 0.26 1 0 . 1 6 1 0 8599 . .02853 ,81050. 301429. ,91609 3938412, 4 8 ♦ 59 5 0.03390 2456 . . 00690 72 4 5.1 . 3561| 3. .97411 3636984. 50.20 10 0.01760 1 232 . .00355 69995. 34 6893 . .98101 3280871. 4 6.07 15 0 . 02040 1403 . .00412 68763. 340306, ,97950 2933970. 42.67 2 0 0.02060 1388. .00416 67360. 3 33330 . .97401 2593672. 38.50 25 0.03150 20 78 . .00640 65972. 324666. . 9638 3 2260342. 34.26 30 0.04100 26 20 . .00037 63894. 312921 . .95185 1935676. 30.30 35 0.05560 3 407 . .01144 6.1274 . 297855. ,93575 1.622754 . 26.4 8 40 0.07340 4247. .01524 57868. 278719, .9.1347 1324099. 22.90 45 •“ 0.10070 5 400 . .02121 53620. 254602. .88268 1046100. 1 9.51 50 0.13580 654 8 . .02914 48221. 224732. . 83949 791578. 16.4 2 55 0.10910 7880 . .04177 41672. 188661 . .78439 566846. 1 3,60 60 0.24830 8391 . .05670 33792. 147904. .71943 378185. 1. 1.19 65 0.32350 821 7 . .07718 25401 . 1064 64 . . 63982 230202. 9 . 06 7 0 0.41440 7 1 21 . . 10454 17184, 60118. .54087 123738. 7 . 20 V. L. X 75 0.53550 5389 . .14626 • 10063. 36843. . 33760 55620. s.) ♦ JO 80 1.00000 4 67 4 . .24893 4674 . 18777. . 00000 18777. 4 . 02 Ta b ] e I I I . 4 . b ri ö g eil life Ta b 1 e T-again ng, I 071 Page 70

l'e na 1 e

AGE Q (X ) D(X) M ( X ) I ( X ) !.. ( X ) 8 ( X ) MX) E (X)

0 0,09000 9000 . .09587 100000 . 93880. .89566 5444162. 54.4 4 t 0,04740 4 3 t 3 . . 01 21 9 91000. 353952. .95822 5350282. 58.79 er 0.01.990 1 725. .00402 86687 . 429120 . . 98559 4996330. 5 7 . 64 1: x ‘"J i 1 0 0 . 00090 7 48. .00177 84962 . 422939. .99006 4567210. \J kJ ♦ / O 1 5 0.01110 9 35 . .00223 84214. 418732. .98721 4144271. 4 9.21

20 0.01450 1208. . 00292 83279. 413377. . 98307 3725539. 4 4 . 74

25 0 . 0.194 0 1592. . 00392 82072 . 406377. . 97773 3312162 . 40.36

30 0.02520 2028 . .00510 80479. 397327 . . 9 71.89 2905785. 36 . 1.1 7 er 0.031 10 24 40. . 00632 78451 . 386137. . 96550 2500458 . 31.97 . , ) -;) j /\ ,;> ' > 7 0 '•> 40 0 . 03800 2888 . .00775 76011 . 372836 . . 95690 A. 1 A.. A-. K.J \/ A. ♦ 7 1 i O 7 4 b 0 . 04840 3539 . . 00992 / O .1 *1. kJ * 356767 . . 94097 1. 749465 . 2 3 , 9 2

50 0 . 07020 4885 . .01455 69584 . 335707 . .90658 1392698. 20.01

55 0.11840 7660 . .02517 64699 . 304344 . . 85560 1056991. 1.6. 34 — 60 0.17390 9919 . .03809 5703?. 260396 . .78995 752646. 13.20

65 0.25380 11959. .05814 47120. 205701 . .70599 492251. 1 0 . 45

70 0 . 34790 1 2 2 3 2 . .08423 35161 . 145222 . .60197 236550. 8 . 1. 5

75 0 . 4 74 90 10889 . ♦ 12456 22928 . 87420 . . 38144 141.327 . 6 .1 . 6

BO 1 . 00000 12040 . . 22334 12040 . 53907 .. 00000 53907 . 4 . 4 8

Male

AGE: «< X ) IK X > M< X ) I < X ) !... ( X ) 8 < X ) T < X > E< X )

0 0.1114 0 11140. .12039 100000. 92536. .87501 5209942. 52.10 1 0.04450 3954 . .01146 08860. 344969. . 96122 5117405. 5 7.59 5 0.01880 159 6 . .00300 *84906. 420538. .98561 4772436. 56.21 — 10 0.00990 825.- -.00199 83310. 414486. .98930 4351898. 52.2 4 15 0.01150 9 4 9 . .00231 82485. 410052. .90681 3937413. 47,74 20 0.01490 1215. .00300 81536. 404644. . 9834 1. 3527360. 4 * . 26 25 0.01830 14 70. . 0.0369 80321. 397932. .97083 3122717 . 38.88 30- 0.02 410 1900 . .00400 ,78851 . 309506. .97121 2724785. 34.56 35 0.03360 2506. .00683 76951. 378292. .96045 2335279 . 30.35 • 1 /, / ■ > 4 0 0.04570 339° . .00935 74366. 363331. .94483 1956987. A. * sJ 45 0.06510 4 620. .01346 70967. 343285. .92181 1593656. 22.46 50 0.09220 6117. .01933 66347. 316442. ♦88663 1250371, 18.85 55 0.13670 023 3 . ♦02935 60230. 280566. ♦83731 933928. 15.51 60 0.19280 10025. .04267 51996. 234920. .77236 653363. 1 2 .5 7 65 0.27080 11366. ♦06264 41972. 181443. .68652 4 18443. 9,97 — 70 0.3 7200 -11385 .- -. 091.4 0 30606. 124565. .57535 237000. 7.74 75 0.50850 97 7 4 . .13637 19220. 71668. .36258 1 1.24 35 . 5.85 00 1.00000 94 47 . .23173 94 47 . 40767. .00000 40767. 4.32 Tn hie 111. r' ‘ b r i d f e d I. i f e G,n b 1 e F u r n k n itn , 1°71

Fe ;nn 1 c

AGE 0 < X ) n < x ) M < X > T ( X ) L. ( X ) S ( X ) MX) E ( X )

0 0.08 4 30 8 430. .00956 100000. 94123. . 90230 5563019. 55.63 S g 7 '•) 1 0.04520 3956 . .01100 91570. 357028. ,96190 5468895. X .J 7 • / C-'j 0,01.060 1630 , .00375 87614. 433997. .90655 5111067. t: < > i rr 10 0 , 00020 705 . .00165 05985. 423160. .99070 4677071 , 54.4 0 15 -0.01040 OB7 . .00209 85279. 424180. .90806 4249711. 49.03 20 0.01350 1 1 39 . .00272 84393 . 419115. .98422 3025530, 45.33 o r* 0.01010 1507 . .00365 83253. 41249?. .97918 3406416. 40.92 3 0 0.02360 !

M ell, e

AGE . 0 ( X ) 11 ( X ) M c X ) I ( X ) I. ( X > S < X ) T < X ) E ( X )

0 0 . 10.1 30 1 0 1. 3 0 . . 1.0860 100000. 93213 . .00421 5322961 . 53.23

t 0.04450 3999 . . 0 1 1 4 6 09070. 340090 , , 96257 5229740. 50.1 9 5 0.01770 1520 . .00357 85871 . 4 25554 . .98646 4000850 . 56.04 1 0 0.009 30 7 0 4 . , 0 0 I 8 7 0 4 351 . 419793. .90995 4455304. 52.02

.1 5 0.01000 903 . . 002L 7 03566 . 415576 . .90761 4035511 . 40.29 20 0.01400 1 1 57 , . 00282 82664 . 410426 . . 904 4 .1 361993 5 . 4 3.79 -

25 0 , 01720 1 4 0 2 , .00347 0 1 507. 404020. . 90002 3209509 . 39.38

30 0 . 0 2200 1 026 . . 00461 80105 . 395957 . . 97200 20054 8.1 , 35 . 02

3 5 0 . 03170 2 4 0 1 . . 00644 78278 . 305100 . . 96264 2409523 . 3 0 . 70

4 0 0 . 04 320 3 27 4 . . 00883 75797 . 370790 . , 9 4 77.1 2024335 . 26 , 7 1 “ 7 ' > tr '1 > g ' > t:, «•:; O i / u: *j r r 7 y 4 5 0 . 06 1.00 4 4 02 . . 0 1. 2 75 / A — J •_ t 351400, » 7 a‘.. \.J a'.. .1 O x.) v.7 x.) O / ♦ 22.80 5 0 0.08000 5900 . . 0.18 4 1 68041. 325234. .09135 1302130. 19.14 r: r xJ vJ 0.13130 0 1 4 0 . . 020t 1 62053 . 209096 . . 0 4 304 976096 . 15.74

60 0 . 10650 10053. . 0 4 1 1 4 53905 . 24 4 394 .. 77060 607000 . 12.74

65 0 , 26430 11590, . 060?1 43852 . 190205 . . 69247 442606 . 10 . 09

7' 0 0 , 36X30 1 1 0 ■ . 0096? 32262 . 131766 . .50002 2 5 2 3 2 1 . 7.82

75 0.50470 1 0 310. . 1 3501 20 4 4 4 , 76426 .. 36604 120555. 5 . 90 '•> M g n h 1 , u < e O O ! r ' ' •' > 1 a 1 / * A 1 > < ) -1 ' > o rl * 1. Table 11T ß . b r i d r ed I i f e T a u 1 e page 7 2 Yojivyakart: , 1971

resales

AGE Q ( X ) D ( X ) M < X ) 1 ( X ) L. ( X ) 8 ( X ) T ( X ) E (X)

0 0.07410 7 410. .07832 100000. 94608. . 91111 5791030. 5 7.91 1 0,03560 3 296 . . 00909 92590. 362596. .96866 5696123 . 61.52 5 0.0161. 0 1438 . .00325 89294. 442875. »98836 5333827. 59.73 r. 1.:* / - y 10 0.00710 62 4 . ,00143 87856. 437721. .99190 1890952. x ) x J ♦ O / — 13" 0.00910 794. -.00183 87232. 431177. .98956 1153230, 51 .05 20 0.01180 1020. .00237 06439. 429643. .98621 4019053. 46.50 2 b 0.01580 1350. ♦00319 85419 . 423719. ,90177 3589410. 42.02 30 0.02070 1740. ,00418 84069, 415991. .97688 3165691 , 37.66 35 0.02560 2108. ,00519 82329. 106375. . 97119 2749697. 33.40 #:> x 4 x x ':> 9 , 40 0.03150 2327 . .00640 00221. 391788. . 96107 A.. X.t 1 \7 »./ ». A.- » 2 9 . 21 —*-43- 0.04050 3147. -.00827 77694 . 380601 . . 95025 1948534. 25.08 30 0.05940 4 4 28. .01224 74548 . 361667. .91995 1567929. 2.1 .03

35 0 . 10200 7 .152 . , 02150 70119. 332717. .87359 1206262. 1 7 , 20 60 0.15360 9672 . .03328 62967. 290657 . .81092 873545. 13.07 *7 '*> 7 / r:; 65 0.23100 12311 . .05223 53295. 235699 . ♦ J A.. / x j >J 582888 . 10.94 70 0 . 32680 13394. .07813 40984 . 171137. .61989 347189 . 0.4 7 . .... ^ ------7 5 — 0.45930 12672. -.1192-1 27591. 106272. .39533 .1. / %.) / x j A - « 6.37

BO 1.00000 14918 . .21471 14918. 69180 , . 00000 69480 . 4,66 jTOF'

Ha 1 e

AGE G ( X ) It ( X ) M ( X ) I (X L < X ) 8 < X ) I ( X ) E ( X )

0 0.09000 9000 . .09604 100000 , 93 71 1. . 90133 5540387. 55.4 0

1 0.03730 3391 . .00951 91000 . 356954. .96443 5446676. 5 9 . 85 r 0.01550 1358 . .00312 87606. 434634. .98817 5089722. 58 . 10

1 0 0.00810 699. .00163 86248. 429493. , 99 .1 20 4655088. 5 3 . 97 15 0.00950 813. .0019.1 05549 .. 425714. . 9891 1 4225596. 49.39

20 0.01230 1 012 . .00248 84736, 421077, . 98626 3799881 . 4 4,84

------25 “ 0.01520 X 2 7 2 . .00306 83694 . 415291 . . 98232 3378805 . 4 0 . 37

r * a . 30 0.02020 1665 . .00408 8 407948. .97584 2963514. 35 . 96 ■•*) c: i:r «::• l .’ / / 35 0.02820 2277 . . 00572 80757 . 398092 . . 96663 aL. x.) \.l • J vJ O O ♦ 3 1 ♦ 65

10 0.03870 30 3 7 . . 00789 78480. 334806 .. 95297 21 5 74 73 , 2 7.49 o "Z ') r -‘ t*:* 15 0 , 05570 1202 . .0 1146 75443 . 366708 ♦ ♦ ) A - J X.) 1772667 . 2 3 . 50

50 0.07990 569 2 . . 01664 71240. 341972 . . 90060 1405960, 19 , 7 4

- — 55 - 0 . 1 2060 7905 . .02567 65548 . 307979 . . 85437 1063987 , I 6.23

60 0.17410 10036. .03814 57643. 263127. .79107 756008 . 1 3 . 12

65 0,25110 1 1 954 . . 05743 47608. 208152. . 70462 492082 . 1 0 . 35

70 0.35150 12639 . . 08617 35653 , 146669 .. 58980 284729 . 7.99 “7 C* / vJ 0.19650 1 1 4 2 7 . . 13209 23014 . 86505 . . 3 734 3 1 >806 J . 6 , 00 i*« rv lt / i i l r.r / 80 1.00000 t 1588 . . 22476 J. 1 588 , \.) 1 U vJ O ♦ .00000 x j 1 \ ) .J O ♦ 4.4 5 T able I T 1.7 \ h rid p e d Life T.a Lie Page 73 ]'eka]cII«:an , 1971

Fernale

AGE (MX) IK X) M ( X ) I ( x:> L ( X ) s < x) r (x) £ (x)

0 0.16670 16670. * 1 8 6 9 6 100000. 89165. .79694 4160923. 0 1 . 61 1 0.10920 91 00 . .02942 83330. 309306. .91379 5 0.03790 28 I 3 . 4071758. 48.86 .00773 74230. 36 41.18 , .97254 3762452. 50,6? . 10 0.01660 11 86 . .00335 71417. 354.1 21 . ' 15 0.02090 1 468 . .98 1.27 3398334. 4 7.50 .00422 70232. 347488. .97623 20 0.02670 1836 . 3044212. 43.35 . 005 4 :1 68764. 339228. .96911 2696724. 39.22 ' ) 7 c r / 25 0.035.20 . J O ♦ .00717 66928. 3287 4? , 30 0.04400 2893 , . 00917 .96009 2357496. 35.22 64572. 315627 . .95071 2028747. 31.42 35 0.05400 3331 . .0111,0 61679. 300068. .941,0? 1713120 . 27.77 4 0 0.0641 0 . 374 0 . 0132 4 583 4 8 . 282391 , . 928 70 4 5 0.07900 4 3 I. 4 . . 016 4 5 1413052. 24.22 54608, 262256 . .90623 1 1 . 30660 . 20.70 50 • i -j n ' ) t 0.10980 .02324 50294 , c t :• 237665, . 860 1.5 868404. 17.27 vJ U 0.17360 . 7 772 . 03802 44972. 204428. .79821 630739. 1 4.09 60 . 0 23590 8728 , . 05349 . 36 999 163177. .72954 4 263.1 L . 1 1.52 65 . . 0 31570 8925 . . 07497 28271 119043. .65050 263134, 9.31 70 . 0 39890 7717. . . 09966 J93 4 6 77437. .559 77 144091. 7 .45 . 75 0 50900 5919. . . n '7 r :( 3655 1J 6 2? 43347. . 34 96 7 66653, J ♦ / 0 8 0 . . 1 00000 5 7.1 0 . 24499 . . 5710 2 3 3 0 7 . 00000 23307, 4 .08

Male

AGE (MX) M ( X ) M ( X ) I ( X E ( X ) 5 ( X ) I ( X E < X )

0 0.19490 19490. .22417 1. 00000, 86942. . 77119 3949326. 3 9.4 9 - 1. 0.10970 8832 , .02957 805 1. 0 ♦ 298653 . .91328 3862384. 4 7,97 5 0,03480 2 4 94. .00708 7.1678 , 35215 4 . .97340 3563731, 4? , 72 1 0 0.01 8 1 0 1252 . .00365 69184. 342788. .98051 3211577. 4 6.4 2 1 8 0.02090 1 420 . .00422 67931 . 336.108 , .97623 2860789, 4 2.23 2 0 0,02670 i 7 76 . . 005 Ml. 665 12. 3 28 1. .1 9 , .97054 2532682. 38.08 25 0.03230 2091 . .0065 7 6 4 736 , 318452. .96298 2204563. 3 4.05 30 0.04170 26 25 , .00856 62645, 306662. .95081 18861 11, . 30.1 1 3 5 0 . 05680 3 409 . .0 L169 60020. 291577. . 9 3 4 4 1 1579449, 26.32 4 0 0.07490 4 2 4 0 . .01556 5 6 6 1 1 . 2724 54 . .9118 4 1287072. 22,75 4 5 0. t 0250 5368 . .02161 52371. 2 4 8434 . .88076 1015418, 1 9.39 5 0 0.13790 6482 , .02962 47003. 21880?. .83728 766984. 16.3 2 55 0,19150 7760 , .04236 40521. 183206. . 78208 548175. .1 3.53 6 0 0,25060 8210 , .05730 32761. 14 3281. . .71727 36496?. 11,14 6 5 0,32560 799 4 . .07778 24551. 102772. .63803 221688, 9.03 70 0.41590 6886 . -i / c: c: 7 1 irr c r i .10502 .1. O v J / ♦ O sJ y.) / 1 ♦ . 539 6 7 t 18916. 7.10 7 5 0.5 3 6 4 0 5188 . ,14660 96 71 , 35387. .33664 53344 . 5 , 52 80 1.00000 4 48 4 . * 2 4967 4 48 4. 1 7958. .00000 17958. 4.01 Table V.l

Per Cent Rate of Population Growth by Kecamatan in Kabupaten Semarang,1961-1971

KECAMATAN P 0 P U L A T I 0 N RATE OF

1961* 1971*) GROWTH

Getasan 36311 39094 .7

Tengaran 39672 47338 1.8

Susukan 56719 64861 1.5

Suruh 42484 49009 1.4

Salatiga 29399 35794 2.0

Tuntang 41706 48022 1.4

Banyubiru 26320 31749 1.9

Jambu 26677 32487 2.0

S umowono 17144 21267 2.2

Ambarawa 52514 62770 1.8

Bawen 28742 33629 1.6

Bar ingin 47428 51898 .9

Klepu 55181 68573 2.2

Gunung Pati 23998 30285 2.4

Ungaran 44475 60491 3.1

Source:* 1961 Census, Series no. 23 *) 1971 Census, Series B no. 1 Table V.2

Per Cent Rate of Population Growth by Kecamatan in Kabupaten Tegal,1961-1971

KECAMATAN P 0 P U L A T I 0 N RATE OF

1961* 1971*) GROWTH

Sumurpanggang 40162 46533 1.5

Surodadi 41450 47185 1.3

Kramat 37280 42856 1.4

Warurejo 30703 35546 1.5

Talang 41787 45948 1.0

Tarub 37420 41264 1.0

Dukuhturi 54133 60251 1.1

Lebaksiu 45251 52554 1.5

Slawi 64523 72641 1.2

Pangkah 49067 56091 1.3

Kedung- 20708 26732 2.6 banteng

Jatinegara 34403 38349 1.1

Balapulang 44981 51488 1.4

Pagerbarang 29851 32328 .8

Margasari 51909 61275 1.7

Bumijawa 44871 50984 1.3

Bojong 33579 37215 1.0

Adiwarna 57519 66267 1.4

Source:* 1961 Census, Series no.23 *) 1971 Census, Series B no.l Table V.3

Per Cent Rate of Population Growth by Kecamatan in Kabupaten Magelang,1961-1971

KECAMATAN P 0 P U L A T I 0 N RATE OF

1961* 1971*) GROWTH

Bandongan 29861 36132 1.9

Kaliangkrik 30112 34960 1.5

Windusari 24491 29356 1.8

Grabag 46682 55900 2.0

Ngablak 27706 30488 1.0

Secang 37388 48461 2.6

Tegalrejo 26325 31397 1.8

Candimulyo 31374 35645 1.3

Pakis 35476 38586 .8

Mer toyudan 43666 60476 3.3

Muntilan 48395 54006 1.1

Dukun 32605 34819 .7

Sawangan 40191 43701 .8

Mungkid 42028 47710 1.3

Salam 30282 33525 1.0

Ngluwar 25938 28679 1.0

Srumbung 36424 35770 -.2

Salaman 38626 46379 1.8

Borobudur 32546 37764 1.5

Tempuran 23532 28586 2.0

Kajoran 31569 37801 1.8

Source:*1961 Census, Series no.23 *) 1971 Census, Series B no.l Table V.4

Per Cent Rate of Population Growth by Kecamatan in Kabupaten Sukoharjo,1961-1971

KECAMATAN P 0 P U L A T I 0 N RATE OF

1961* 1971*) GROWTH

Wiru 37212 45846 2.1

Bulu 28209 35831 t o

Tawangsari 32072 37626 1.6

Sukoharjo 40468 51480 2.4

Nguter 41581 49664 1.8

Bendosari 31776 38806 2.0

Pulokerto 37786 46153 2.0

Mojolambar 35447 44326 2.3

Grogol 31718 39114 2.1

Baki 26057 31174 1.8

Gatak 26717 30761 1.4

Kartosuro 34003 42870 2.3

Source:* 1961 Census, Series no.23 *) 1971 Census, Series B no.l Table V.5

Per Cent Rate of Population Growth by Kecamatan in Kabupaten Sleman,1961-1971

KECAMATAN 1971 POP. RATE OF GROWTH

Depok 48,688 3.0

Sleman 41,061 1.9

Mlati 40,970 1.5

Gamping 40,705 1.4

Berbah 29,383 1.3

Kalasan 38,790 1.2

Tempel 38,516 1.2

Godean 39,452 1.1

Sayegan 33,655 1.1

Prambanan 33,220 1.1

Ngaglik 37,562 1.0

Ngemplak 32,202 .9

Cangkringan 22,870 .9

Tur i 25,692 .6

Moyudan 29,296 .5

Minggir 30,518 .5

Pa kern •25,690 .3

Source: McDonald, 1976:Table 6.4 Table V.6

Per Cent Rate of Population Growth by Kecamatan in Kabupaten Pekalongan,1961-1971

KECAMATAN P 0 P U L A T I 0 N RATE OF

1961* 1971*) GROWTH

Tirto 39626 46310 1.6

Buwaran 47373 53172 1.2

Wiradesa 46015 53141 1.5

Sragi 57969 67893 1.6

Kedungwuni 55355 66726 1.9

Wonopringgo 22461 26050 1.5

Bojong 33345 38486 1.4

Doro 15972 20413 2.5

Talun 10688 14894 3.4

Patungkriyono 8009 8909 1.1

Lebakbarang 6606 8015 2.0

Kajen 31909 36484 1.3

Kosesi 37811 44692 1.7

Karanganyar 19513 23717 2.0

Paninggaran 22603 24036 .6

Kandangseran 18805 21178 1.2

Source:* 1961 Census, Series no.23 *) 1971 Census, Series B no.l Page 80

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