ISSN: 2560-1601

Vol. 34, No. 1 (BH)

November 2020

Bosnia- political briefing: The eruption of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus spread and the overview of the the local (municipal) elections results Zvonimir Stopić

1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11.

+36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin

Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01

The eruption of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus spread and the overview of the the local (municipal) elections results

Second half of October and the first half of November were a turbulent period for and Herzegovina. In that period, recorded the highest rate of the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus since the virus first entered the country in March, more than doubling the overall number of the diseased and deceased from the COVID-19. Amidst the eruption of pandemics, which created a strain in the country’s resources and functionality of various institutions, 7th local (municipal) elections were held on November 15th. This year’s elections, alongside some expected results, brought also some interesting surprises.

The eruption of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus spread

Cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 exceeded 70,000 in Bosnia and Herzegovina by November 15th. Compared to the same date in previous month (31,655), we can see that the number more than doubled. This dramatic change made the rate of spread of coronavirus in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which was more or less consistent from July until October (8-9,000 per month), to more than quadruple in just one month. Until now, out of the 72,682 cases confirmed by November 16th, 46,092 originated from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 25,456 from the and 7,336 from the District of Brčko. By the evening of the same day, the number of deceased from Covid-19 in all of Bosnia and Herzegovina exceeded 2,000, more than doubling the number of Covid-19 related deaths registered on the same day in October. Currently there are 34,243 active cases in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while 36,473 recovered in total since the disease was first reported in March. The number of tested people also drastically increased in second half of October and first half of November, cumulatively reaching 375,000 in total (more than 10 % of the population). A total of 107,604 tests was done between October 15th and November 15th, meaning that currently little less than 40 % of testes done in Bosnia and Herzegovina ends up showing positive.

The general results of the local (municipal) elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s local (municipal) elections were held on Sunday, November 15th. Regarding the voting on mayors, a total of 3,196,511 voters had the chance to chose

1 between 114 political subjects and 425 political candidates on 5,106 polling stations. As of October 21th, there were 6 % invalid ballots. Regarding the voting on 411 political subjects and 30,384 candidates in 143 municipal assemblies, a total 3,283,380 people were registered to cast their ballots in 5,246 polling stations. As of November 21th, there were 5.18 % invalid ballots. According to the available data, voter turnout in 2020 was little over 50 %, a decline from the 53.8 % voter turnout in the 2016 elections.

The results of the elections, regarding the municipal assemblies are as follows (it should be taken into consideration that the results presented in the table do not reflect overall victories in the assemblies, but show only those parties which got the highest number of votes; the real power in the assemblies for many of the electoral units depend on numerous coalitions and deals which will be done in the weeks that follow the elections):

Party Electoral unit Alliance of Independent Novi Grad (007), Kozarska Dubica (008), (009), Social Democrats (Savez Gradiška (010), Laktaši (011), (012), Prnjavor (013), nezavisnih (014), Brod (016), (018), socijaldemokrata, SNSD) (029), Petrovac (031), Oštra Luka (033), (034), Čelinac (035), (038), (040), Petrovo (045), (057), Ribnik (061), Mrkonjić Grad (064), Jezero (066), Kneževo (068), (081), (083), Glamoč (085), Šipovo (088), Šekovići (101), (103), (104), (105), RS (108), (121), (123), East New (140), Trnovo (142), Pale (144), (146), Višegrad (147), (161), Kalinovk (163), (164), Foča (166), Novo Goražde (168), Čajniče (169), (170), Bileća (180), (182), Kostajnica (184), Milići (185). Party of Democratic Action Bihać (003), (004), Bužim (005), Bosanski (Stranka Demokratske Petrovac (030), (032), Doboj Istok (036), Tešanj Akcije; SDA) (039), (049), Čelić (052), Teočak (055), Živinice (079), (089), (091), (094), Vareš (095), (096), (098), (109), Gornji Vakuf - Uskoplje (110), Busovača (113), (114), (116), Breza (117), Ilijaš (118), Jablanica (126), (127), Hadžići (130), Ilidža (131), Novi Grad Sarajevo (133), Vogošća (135), Trnovo (FBiH) (141), Pale (FBiH) (143), Foča (FBiH), (165), Brčko Distrikt BiH (200) Croatian Democratic Union Odžak (017), Domaljevac-Šamac (020), Orašje (022), Žepče (Hrvatska demokratska (075), (106), Kupres (107), Kreševo (129), Posušje zajednica Bosne i (148), (149), Široki Brijeg (150), Ljubuški (171), Hercegovine; HDZ BiH) Čitluk (172), (174), (176), Ravno (181), (183)

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Party Electoral unit Serb Democratic Party Donji Žabar (023), Modriča (024), (054), (Srpska demokratska (056), Kotor Varoš (070), Teslić (074), Istočna Ilidža (132), stranka; SDS) Istočni Stari Grad (138), Istočni (158), Berkovići (177), (179) Social Democratic Party of Gradačac (025), Doboj Jug (037), (042), Gračnica Bosnia and Herzegovina (044), (050), Ključ (059), Zavidovići (077) (Socijaldemokratska partija Bosne i Hercegovine; SDP BiH) Independent list of Bosnia (080), Stari grad Sarajevo (137), Goražde (167) and Herzegovina (Nezavisna Bosanhercegovačka lista; NBL) People and justice (Narod i Sarajevo Center (136), (139). pravda; NIP) Movement of the Banovići (078), (082) Democratic Action (Pokret demokratske akcije; PDA) Party of Democratic (002) Activity (Stranka demokratske aktivnosti; A- SDA) Democratic People's (006) Alliance (Demokratski narodni savez; DNS) People’s movement “Đorđe Šamac (021) Milićević” (Narodni pokret “Đorđe Milićević”) Socialist Party Pelagićevo (026) (Socijalistička partija; SP) Socialdemocats of Bosnia (047) and Herzegovina (Socijaldemokrate BiH; SDBiH) Croatian national (124) movement (Hrvatski nacionalni pomak; HNP) Croatian Democratic Union Prozor-Rama (125) 1990 (Hrvatska Demokratska Zajednica 1990; HDZ 1990)

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Party Electoral unit Croatian Peasant Party of Dobretići (067) Stjepan Radić (Hrvatska Seljačka Stranka Stjepana Radića; HSS SR) Coalition of HDZ BiH and (115), (112), Čapljina (173) HSS SR Coalition of HDZ BiH and (111) HDZ 1990 Alliance SDA, SBiH, A- (065) SDA Labour Party of Bosnia and Velika Kladuša (001) Herzegovina (Laburistička stranka Bosne i Hercegovine; LS BiH) Serbian Progressive Party (084) of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Srpska napredna stranka FBiH; SNS FBiH) Initative (Zenička Zenica (093) inicijativa)

Regarding the election of mayors, for the majority of electoral units of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the results roughly correspond to the results regarding the assemblies. However, these elections did show several surprises, which no doubt will affect the dynamics of politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Setting aside similar occurrences in some other areas, most significant changes concern the two major parties, Milorad Dodik’s SNSD and Bakir Izetbegović’s SDA, who lost support in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s two major cities, Banja Luka and Sarajevo, respectively. Out of the three major parties, only Dragan Čović’s HDZ BiH was not affected negatively by the results. Other differences and surprises are as follows:

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Electoral unit Mayor (Party) Most votes in the assembly

Bihać (003) Movement for modern and SDA acive Kajina (Pokret za moderniju i aktivniju Krajniu - Pomak)

Bosanska Krupa (004) SDP BiH, A-SDA and NIP SDA coalition

Derventa (014) SDS and Party of SNSD Democratic Progress (Partija demokratskog progresa; PDP) coalition

Brod (016) SDS SNSD

Odžak (017) HDZ 1990 HDZ BiH

Donji Žabar (023) SNSD SDS

Bijeljina (029) SDS and PDP coalition SNSD

Banja Luka (034) PDP SNSD

Doboj Jug (037) SDA SDP BiH

Stanari (040) United Srpska (Ujedinjena SNSD Srpska)

Srebrenik (049) Independent candidate SDA

Čelić (052) Party for Bosnia and SDA Herzegovina (Stranka za Bosnu i Hercegovinu)

Zavidovići (077) NBL SDP BiH

Banovići (078) SDA PDA

Bosansko Grahovo (084) SNSD SNS FBiH

Donji Vakuf (089) Independent candidate SDA

Vareš (095) HDZ BiH SDA

Kladanj (098) PDA SDA

Šekovići (101) Democratic alliance SNSD (Demokratski savez)

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Electoral unit Mayor (Party) Most votes in the assembly

Bratunac (104) Independent candidate SNSD

Han Pijesak (123) SDS SNSD

Jablanica (126) SDP SDA

Ilidža (131) SDP BiH, NS and NIP SDA coalition

Foča (FBiH): Party for btter Goražde SDA (Stranka za bolje Goražde)

Conclusion

Despite of the absolute record breaking spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in the weeks that preceded the local (municipal) elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, they were held as planned. Although for most of the electoral units the results itself showed little change regarding the past elections, leaving the same political forces in power, potentially significant shifts occurred. The largest one being the loss of Banja Luka and Sarajevo for Dodik and Izetbegović, respectively, which will no doubt create new frictions in the future Bosnia and Herzegovina politics. Although the election results are known and finite for most of the Bosnia and Herzegovina, we are still waiting to see what the results will be for the city of Mostar, in which no elections were held since 2008 due to the disagreements over electoral rules. Mostar’s elections will be held on December 20th. Election will also probably be repeated in Travnik because the newly elected mayor, Peco Mirsad, passed away from complications caused by COVID-19.

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