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Download Open Letter 1 Supply projections include vaccines produced by Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca/Oxford, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, and CureVac. Amanda Glassman J. Stephen Morrison Gary Edson Mark McClellan Executive Vice President, Senior Vice President and President, COVID Director, Duke-Margolis Center for Global Director, Global Health Collaborative Center for Health Policy, Development; CEO of CGD Policy Center, Center for Duke University Europe; and Senior Fellow Strategic and International John Bridgeland Studies CEO, COVID Krishna Udayakumar Rachel Silverman Collaborative Director, Duke Global Policy Fellow, Center for Katherine Bliss Health Innovation Center, Global Development Senior Fellow, Global Anjali Balakrishna Duke University Health Policy Center, Program Director, COVID Prashant Yadav Center for Strategic and Collaborative Michael Merson International Studies Senior Fellow, Center for Wolfgang Joklik Professor Global Development of Global Health, Duke Anna McCaffrey Global Health Institute, Fellow, Global Health Duke University Policy Center, Center for Strategic and International Studies Thomas Bollyky Helene Gayle William H. Frist Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign President and Chief Executive Former U.S. Senate Majority Relations Officer, The Chicago Community Leader Trust Scott Gottlieb Margaret (Peggy) Hamburg Amb [ret] Jimmy Kolker Resident Fellow, American Former Commissioner of the US Former Assistant Secretary, Enterprise Institute, and former Food and Drug Administration, Global Affairs, Department Health Commissioner of the US Food and and former Foreign Secretary of and Human Services Drug Administration the National Academy of Medicine Jack Leslie Jennifer Nuzzo Carolyn Reynolds Chairman, Weber Shandwick Associate Professor, Johns Co-Founder, Pandemic Action Hopkins Bloomberg School of Network, and Senior Associate, Public Health Global Health Policy Center, CSIS Source: Launch and Scale Speedometer, Duke GHIC, from publicly available sources Platform Vaccine 2021 Supply 2022 Supply Pfizer/BioNTech 3,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 mRNA Moderna 800,000,000 3,000,000,000 CureVac 300,000,000 1,000,000,000 AZ/Oxford 1,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 Viral Vector JNJ 1,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 Protein Subunit Novovax 500,000,000 1,800,000,000 TOTAL 7,100,000,000 14,300,000,000 Population Coverage 4,050,000,000 8,400,000,000 Source: Launch and Scale Speedometer, Duke GHIC, from publicly available sources Pfizer/ Az/ Moderna JNJ CureVac Novovax Total Doses BioNTech Oxford EU 650,000,000 310,000,000 300,000,000 200,000,000 225,000,000 1,685,000,000 UK 100,000,000 17,000,000 100,000,000 30,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 357,000,000 US 300,000,000 300,000,000 300,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000 1,100,000,000 Canada 105,000,000 44,000,000 23,500,000 10,000,000 52,000,000 234,500,000 Japan 194,000,000 50,000,000 120,000,000 364,000,000 Total 1,349,000,000 721,000,000 843,500,000 340,000,000 275,000,000 212,000,000 3,740,500,000 2021 Projected 3,000,000,000 800,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,000,000,000 300,000,000 500,000,000 7,100,000,000 Supply % to G7/EU 45% 90% 56% 34% 92% 42% 53% Source: Team Analysis, using data from publicly available sources Projected 2021 Supply to G7/EU (from Table 2) 3,740,500,000 Estimated doses required to fully vaccinate 70% (total population of ~1 billion; assumes two doses for 70% of total population, plus additional doses lost to 1,600,000,000 wastage, expiration, etc.) 10% additional contingency (for further unforeseen circumstances, or demand 160,000,000 beyond 70% total population coverage) Excess doses available in 2021 without boosters 1,980,500,000 Potential booster doses used in 2021 (assumes single dose booster for full 70% of 880,000,000 population, plus 10% contingency) Excess doses available in 2021 after boosters 1,100,500,000 .
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