HONG KONG TCL Communication 2618 HK Outperform

Price (at 07:59, 30 Jan 2015 GMT) HK$6.86 Technology

Valuation HK$ 11.02 - PER Hungry for a bigger global presence 12-month target HK$ 11.02 Upside/Downside % +60.6 Event 12-month TSR % +65.0 Volatility Index High . IDC and Strategic Analytics recently released 4Q14 global GICS sector shipment rankings. Overall global smartphone shipments for 4Q14 reached Technology Hardware & Equipment 375m (+28% y-y). TCL Com continued its strong momentum, with market Market cap HK$m 8,396 share expanding to 4.1% 4Q14 from 3.3% in 3Q14 and 2.6% in 4Q13. Market cap US$m 1,083 Free float % 36 Impact 30-day avg turnover US$m 2.3 . and Apple continued to dominate the top two positions in 4Q14 Number shares on issue m 1,224 global shipments, with a 20% market share each. The remaining three out of Investment fundamentals top five smartphone vendors are all Chinese brands (, and Year end 31 Dec 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E ), making up total market share of 17.3% (vs 12.4% 4Q13). Revenue m 19,362 30,503 40,870 42,462 EBIT m 405 1,185 1,624 1,800 . TCL Com achieved smartphone shipments of 15.5mn (+101% y-y) with EBIT growth % nmf 192.7 37.0 10.9 Reported profit m 313 1,032 1,435 1,598 market share expanding to 4.1% 4Q14 from 2.6% 4Q13. TCL Com expanded Adjusted profit m 313 1,032 1,435 1,598 its smartphone market share from 3.3% in 3Q14 to 4.1% in 4Q14, driven not EPS rep HK$ 0.27 0.83 1.16 1.29 EPS rep growth % nmf 206.4 39.1 11.4 only by late-cycle feature phone to smartphone migration in developing EPS adj HK$ 0.26 0.84 1.16 1.29 countries, but also by early-cycle 4G entry-level smartphone adoption in EPS adj growth % nmf 220.4 39.0 11.4 PER rep x 25.2 8.2 5.9 5.3 developed markets. Its smartphone shipments grew 42% q-q, as its products PER adj x 26.3 8.2 5.9 5.3 have superior cost/performance ratio vs and vs Korean/Japanese Total DPS HK$ 0.10 0.22 0.30 0.34 Total div yield % 1.5 3.2 4.4 4.9 brands in the low-end segment. ROA % 2.9 6.5 6.7 6.1 ROE % 12.0 30.1 31.9 28.4 EV/EBITDA x 7.5 4.5 3.8 4.0 Net debt/equity % 94.2 95.9 96.5 96.7 TCL global smartphone shipment market share P/BV x 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2618 HK rel HSI performance, & rec Shipment (mn) 6.3 8.4 10.9 15.5 history Market share (%) 2.70% 2.90% 3.30% 4.10% Source: IDC, Strategic Analytics, Company information, Macquarie Research.

Earnings and target price revision . No change. Price catalyst

. 12-month price target: HK$11.02 based on a PER methodology.

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. . Catalyst: 1) Monthly shipment number (early Feb); 2) FY14 results (March); 3) Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2015 IDC/Gartner quarterly shipment data/market share by vendor (mid Feb); 4) (all figures in HKD unless noted) New carrier partnership wins in US (currently in talks with Verizon); 5)

Detailed business plan (yet to be announced) for Palm brand. Action and recommendation

Analyst(s) . The stock is trading at 6.0x FY15E P/E, versus its historical multiple of 9.5x Laetitia Yu +852 3922 4725 [email protected] during mid-cycles, 15x during up-cycles and 7x during down-cycles. Our Danny Chu, CFA target price of HK$11.02 is based on 9.5x FY15F EPS. +852 3922 4762 [email protected]

2 February 2015 Macquarie Capital Securities Limited

Please refer to page 7 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

Macquarie Research TCL Communication Technology

Hungry for a bigger global presence Chinese vendors ended 2014 with a bigger smartphone market share IDC and Strategic Analytics recently released 4Q14 global smartphone shipment rankings. Overall global smartphone shipments for 4Q14 reached 375m (+28% y-y). Samsung (4Q14 market share 20% vs 4Q13 29%) and Apple (4Q14 market share 20% vs 4Q13 17%) still dominate the top two positions, but we have seen a strong trend of emerging Chinese vendors expanding their global presence. Three out of top five smartphone vendors are Chinese brands (Huawei, Lenovo and Xiaomi), with market share of 17.3% (vs 12.4% 4Q13). Their shipment volume also out grew the industry average of +28% y-y, with Lenovo +78% y-y, Huawei +42% y-y and Xiaomi +181% y-y. Our top pick in the handset space, TCL Com (2618 HK, Outperform, TP HK$11.02) achieved smartphone shipments of 15.5m (+101% y-y) with market share expanding to 4.1% 4Q14 from 2.6% 4Q13.

Fig 1 4Q14 smartphone shipment and market share by vendor Smartphone 4Q14 shipment 4Q13 shipment Shipment y-y Ranking vendor (mn) Market share (mn) Market share change (%)

1 Samsung 75.1 20.0% 84.4 28.8% -11.0% 2 Apple 74.5 19.9% 51 17.4% 46.1% 3* Lenovo 24.7 6.6% 13.9 4.7% 77.7% Lenovo + Moto 24.7 6.6% 19.5 6.7% 26.7% 4 Huawei 23.5 6.3% 16.6 5.7% 41.6% 5 Xiaomi 16.6 4.4% 5.9 2.0% 181.4% 8** TCL 15.5 4.1% 7.7 2.6% 101.3% Others 145.4 38.7% 113.2 38.7% 28.4% Total 375.3 100.0% 292.7 100.0% 28.2% *For 4Q14 Motorola shipment is already consolidated into Lenovo's total shipment amount. **Ranking and market share are based on company information and Macquarie estimate. Source: IDC, Strategic Analytics, Company information, Macquarie Research.

Apple’s market share surged from 12% in 3Q14 to 20% in 4Q14 (kindly refer to Ben Schachter’s recent Apple results update), on the brand’s strong position in the high-end segment and record sales in the PRC market post iPhone6/iPhone6 Plus launch. Lenovo expanded its overseas presence with market share growing from 5.2% in 3Q14 to 6.6% in 4Q14 post the acquisition of Motorola. Huawei continued its strong momentum (4Q14 6.3% vs 3Q14 5%) driven by a series of successful flagship products debut in both domestic and overseas markets (Mate 7, 6 Plus, etc) while Xiaomi saw a slight decline (4Q14 4.4% vs 3Q14 5.3%) as it faced challenges in both overseas market (IPR disputes) as well as domestic market (rising competition from the likes of Meizu). Two Korean brands, Samsung and LG, both recorded a slide in market share, down 3.8ppt and 0.7ppt respectively. TCL Com expanded its smartphone market share from 3.3% in 3Q14 to 4.1% of 4Q14, driven by both late-cycle feature phone to smartphone migration in developing countries, and early-cycle 4G entry-level smartphone adoption in developed markets.

Fig 1 Smartphone shipment q-q market share by vendor 4Q14 shipment 3Q14 shipment Market share Smartphone vendor (mn) Market share (mn) Market share change

Samsung 75.1 20.0% 78.1 23.8% -3.8% Apple 74.5 19.9% 39.3 12.0% 7.9% Lenovo 24.7 6.6% 16.9 5.2% 1.4% Lenovo + Moto 24.7 6.6% 25.6 7.8% -1.2% Huawei 23.5 6.3% 16.5 5.0% 1.2% Xiaomi 16.6 4.4% 17.3 5.3% -0.9% LG 16.5 4.4% 16.8 5.1% -0.7% TCL 15.5 4.1% 10.9 3.3% 0.8% Others 145.4 38.7% 106.2 32.4% 6.3% Total 375.3 100.0% 327.6 100.0% 0.0% Source: IDC, Strategic Analytics, Company information, Macquarie Research.

2 February 2015 2 Macquarie Research TCL Communication Technology

And they are eyeing more… Overall we think those Chinese handset vendors who already have well established overseas business (Huawei, Lenovo and TCL), will continue to expand their market shares at the expense of Nokia and Korean/Japanese brands especially in the low-end segment. Thanks to a leaner cost structure and superior cost/performance ratio, Chinese vendors have already established a strong presence in the entry level segment. In the recent few months we have also noticed a clear trend of Chinese vendors upgrading their brand positioning, launching a series of flagship models/acquiring trademarks of foreign peers/moving into developed markets with better margin/ASP (Huawei’s intention to expand US market share for Fy15 and beyond, TCL’s acquisition of Palm trademarks and the on-going Lenovo-Moto consolidation). Domestic market remains challenging For the PRC market, we think competition is likely to intensify in the smartphone space. With a decelerating smartphone demand growth outlook, existing vendors also face increasingly more complicated dynamics due to lower entry barrier, faster than expected 4G device commoditization, operator subsidy cuts, emerging brands (Xiaomi, Meizu, , Vivo) expanding market share and the risk of software/media/internet companies moving into the hardware space. Two trends we have noticed over the past few months: 1) vendors streamlining their product-offerings, with a focus more on the mid-range segment as an effort to up-lift their brand perception, rather than competing purely on price/specs; 2) joining hands with internet/media/software companies to form a stronger eco- system and leverage one another’s user base. Stress testing TCL’s EM exposure We acknowledge that, on the downside, economic uncertainties as well as currency volatility in the EM region may heighten market concerns for the coming two years. Even though the company has been running a well-established overseas business with well-diversified business exposure and well hedged currency exposure for over a decade, overall shipments, ASP and gross margin could come under pressure in case of an EM downturn. We conduct a sensitivity analysis below to quantify TCL Com’s emerging markets risk.

Fig 3 Forex sensitivity of sales Currency exposure % of sales Base case assumptions

USD 65% Reporting currency HKD EUR 20% Currencies under depreciation pressure RUB, BRL and EUR. BRL 2% FY15E total revenue assumption (HK$ bn) 40.87 RUB 5% Total EUR/BRL/RUB denominated revenue (HK$ bn) 11.03 RMB 8% Total USD/RMB denominated revenue (HK$ bn) 29.84 Source: Macquarie Research, February 2015

TCL hedging practice: Purchase 6~9 months currency/interest rate futures based on pre-order / contracts signed with operators / sales forecasts in each region. Demand visibility: 70%~80% sales exposure to operator channel (pre-orders are normally signed at least 6 months ahead so better demand visibility). Overseas business experience: Over 10 years of overseas experience (since 2004 Alcatel deal) with well established hedging practice. Background assumption for our sensitivity analysis: We expect limited impact from currency volatility itself due to the company's well-established hedging practice, but cannot rule out the possibility of weaker demand in case RUB/EUR/BRL depreciates. Below we conduct a sensitivity analysis, in a conservative manner assuming consumers will not trade down (from mid-range/high- end phones to entry-level phones which benefits TCL). Rather, we expect consumers to delay their device purchase, which would extend the handset replacement cycle from our base case assumption of 2 years to a bear case of 2.5-3 years. GPM will come down due to weaker demand (from base case of 18.9% to 18.8% and 18.7% for bear cases), while OPEX will stay the same as our base case assumption.

2 February 2015 3 Macquarie Research TCL Communication Technology

Fig 2 TCL emerging markets exposure sensitivity analysis Shipment FY15E EUR/BRL/RUB FY15E USD/RMB FY15E total Revenue Replacement FY15E downside vs denominated revenue denominated revenue revenue downside vs FY15E cycle shipment (mn) base case (HK$ bn) (HK$ bn) (HK$ bn) base case GPM

Base case 2 years 89 0.00% 11.03 29.84 40.87 0.00% 18.90% Bear case 1 2.5 years 71 - 20.00% 8.83 29.84 38.66 -5.40% 18.85% Bear case 2 3 years 59 -33.33% 7.36 29.84 37.19 -9.00% 18.80%

GP downside Jan-26-2015 FY15E GP vs base case FY15E Opex EBIT downside vs FY15E EPS close price FY15E (HK$ bn) (%) (HK$ bn) FY15E EBIT (HK$ bn) base case (%) (HK$) (HK$) PER

Base case 7.72 0.00% 6.12 1.60 0.00% 1.16 6.85 5.91 Bear case 1 7.29 -5.65% 6.12 1.17 -27.20% 0.84 6.85 8.11 Bear case 2 6.99 -9.48% 6.12 0.87 -45.65% 0.63 6.85 10.86 Note: Opex = Base case GP - Base case EBIT, Source: Macquarie Research, February 2015

For the sake of being conservative, we rule out the possibility of consumers trading down or shifting from high-end/mid-range devices to entry-level devices, which benefits TCL Com, in our view. This assumption is based on an extension of the replacement cycle, lower shipment volumes, weaker sales, and GPM being under pressure while OPEX stays the same. Even in the worse case of a 46% profitability downside vs our base case, the implied FY15E PER stands at 10.9x, attractive vs peers.

Fig 3 TCL valuation benchmark vs peers Benchmark against peers Ticker FY15E PER

Chinese handset brands TCL base case 2618 HK 5.9 TCL bear case 1 2618 HK 8.1 TCL bear case 2 2618 HK 10.9 Lenovo 992 HK 17.8 ZTE 000063 CH 19.5 2369 HK 11.7 Global handset brands HTC 2498 TT 73.2 Apple AAPL US 13.4 Nokia NOK1V FH 21 Blackberry BBRY US NA LG 066570 KS 8.8 Samsung 005930 KS 11.5 Source: Macquarie Research, February 2015 (PER is calculated based on 30 January close price).

Reiterate long TCL (2618 HK, OP) / short Coolpad (2369 HK, UP) pair trade To reiterate our investment thesis in China handset initiation, we believe now is a good time to enter a pair trade of long TCL (2618 HK, Outperform) / short Coolpad (2369 HK, HK$1.46, Underperform, TP: HK$1.18) given: 1. The risk from PRC competition and subsidy cuts is the lowest for TCL in our universe and the highest for Coolpad; 2. TCL is likely to surprise on the upside (PRC/MEA/US to grow from small base + Palm potential) vs Coolpad to surprise on the downside (continuous ASP/margin erosion + heavy opex from open channel/online sales); 3. Expect operational leverage from TCL / operational deleverage from Coolpad going into 2015; 4. TCL 6x FY15 PER with 32% ROE vs Coolpad of FY15 PER with 14% PER; 5. Long-term ecosystem battle: TCL can leverage multiple product lines/facilities/R&D know- how/distribution networks of parent/sister companies while Coolpad’s JV with Qihoo rules out the possibility of joining hands with better established ecosystems and could pose overhang to future development.

2 February 2015 4 Macquarie Research TCL Communication Technology

Macquarie Quant View

The quant model currently holds a marginally positive view on TCL Attractive Displays where the Communication Technology. The strongest style exposure is Growth, indicating company’s ranked based on this stock has good historic and/or forecast growth. Growth metrics focus on both s

l the fundamental consensus a top and bottom line items. The weakest style exposure is Price Momentum, t

n Price Target and indicating this stock has had weak medium to long term returns which often e

Macquarie’s Quantitative m

persist into the future. a

Alpha model. The rankings d

n are displayed relative to the 94/206 u F sector and country. Global Alpha Model Sector Rank Quant % of BUY recommendations 71% (15/21) Rank within Country Rank within Sector Number of Price Target downgrades 1 Number of Price Target upgrades 0

Macquarie Alpha Model ranking Factors driving the Alpha Model A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their (higher is better). contribution to the current overall Alpha score.

TCL Communication Technol… 0.3 TCL Communication Technol…

China ITS -0.5 China ITS

Ju Teng International -0.6 Ju Teng International

Kingdee International Sof… -0.9 Kingdee International Sof…

Forgame Holdings -1.2 Forgame Holdings

Comtec Solar Systems -2.0 Comtec Solar Systems

United Photovoltaics Grou… -2.4 United Photovoltaics Grou…

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings Price Quality Momentum Momentum

Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator Drivers of Stock Return The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple. revisions. Current score shown below.

TCL Communication Technol… TCL Communication Technol… -0.3 China ITS China ITS -1.2 Ju Teng International Ju Teng International -1.3 Kingdee International Sof… Kingdee International Sof… -0.7 Forgame Holdings Forgame Holdings -0.1

Comtec Solar Systems -0.5 Comtec Solar Systems

United Photovoltaics Grou… NaN United Photovoltaics Grou…

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return

What drove this Company in the last 5 years How it looks on the Alpha model Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company’s A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is returns over the last 5 years. better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and country ⇐ Negatives Positives ⇒ Normalized Percentile relative Percentile relative Operating Leverage NTM 33% Score to sector(/206) to country(/251) Alpha Model Score 0.28 3M Price Target Revisions… 28% Valuation 0.04 Momentum 12 Month 24% Growth 2.16 Momentum 6 Month 23% Profitability 0.17 Earnings Momentum 0.01 Operating Margin FY0 -32% Price Momentum -0.79 Dividend Yield NTM -37% Quality -0.57 Capital & Funding -0.15 Dividend Yield FY1 -38% Liquidity -1.74 Price to Earnings NTM -38% Risk -0.50 Technicals & Trading 0.57 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 0 50 100 0 50 100 0 0 1 1 .

For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group ([email protected])

2 February 2015 5 Macquarie Research TCL Communication Technology

TCL Communication Technology (2618 HK, Outperform, Target Price: HK$11.02) Quarterly Results 3Q/14A 4Q/14E 1Q/15E 2Q/15E Profit & Loss 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Revenue m 7,779 10,507 7,461 9,156 Revenue m 19,362 30,503 40,870 42,462 Gross Profit m 1,481 2,017 1,486 1,788 Gross Profit m 3,672 5,879 7,739 7,882 Cost of Goods Sold m 6,297 8,490 5,975 7,368 Cost of Goods Sold m 15,690 24,625 33,131 34,580 EBITDA m 671 756 692 791 EBITDA m 1,543 2,642 3,138 2,952 Depreciation m 364 364 298 366 Depreciation m 1,138 1,457 1,514 1,152 Amortisation of Goodwill m 0 0 0 0 Amortisation of Goodwill m 0 0 0 0 Other Amortisation m 0 0 0 0 Other Amortisation m 0 0 0 0 EBIT m 306 391 394 425 EBIT m 405 1,185 1,624 1,800 Net Interest Income m -21 -28 -20 -24 Net Interest Income m -105 -91 -108 -112 Associates m 0 0 0 0 Associates m 2 1 0 0 Exceptionals m 0 0 0 0 Exceptionals m 0 0 0 0 Forex Gains / Losses m 0 0 0 0 Forex Gains / Losses m 0 0 0 0 Other Pre-Tax Income m 0 -0 -0 0 Other Pre-Tax Income m -3 -1 0 -0 Pre-Tax Profit m 286 364 374 400 Pre-Tax Profit m 298 1,095 1,516 1,688 Tax Expense m -7 -11 -11 -12 Tax Expense m 18 -38 -46 -51 Net Profit m 279 352 363 388 Net Profit m 316 1,056 1,470 1,637 Minority Interests m -7 -8 -9 -9 Minority Interests m -3 -25 -35 -39

Reported Earnings m 273 344 354 379 Reported Earnings m 313 1,032 1,435 1,598 Adjusted Earnings m 273 344 354 379 Adjusted Earnings m 313 1,032 1,435 1,598

EPS (rep) 0.22 0.28 0.29 0.31 EPS (rep) 0.27 0.83 1.16 1.29 EPS (adj) 0.22 0.28 0.29 0.31 EPS (adj) 0.26 0.84 1.16 1.29 EPS Growth yoy (adj) % 13.5 11.5 101.5 58.1 EPS Growth (adj) % nmf 220.4 39.0 11.4 PE (rep) x 25.2 8.2 5.9 5.3 PE (adj) x 26.3 8.2 5.9 5.3

EBITDA Margin % 8.6 7.2 9.3 8.6 Total DPS 0.10 0.22 0.30 0.34 EBIT Margin % 3.9 3.7 5.3 4.6 Total Div Yield % 1.5 3.2 4.4 4.9 Earnings Split % 26.4 33.4 24.7 26.4 Basic Shares Outstanding m 1,180 1,236 1,236 1,236 Revenue Growth % 42.6 40.1 34.7 37.1 Diluted Shares Outstanding m 1,150 1,236 1,236 1,236 EBIT Growth % 27.1 18.5 85.3 54.3

Profit and Loss Ratios 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Cashflow Analysis 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Revenue Growth % 60.9 57.5 34.0 3.9 EBITDA m 1,543 2,642 3,138 2,952 EBITDA Growth % 99.9 71.2 18.7 -5.9 Tax Paid m 18 -38 -46 -51 EBIT Growth % nmf 192.7 37.0 10.9 Chgs in Working Cap m -58 -553 -1,260 -1,418 Gross Profit Margin % 19.0 19.3 18.9 18.6 Net Interest Paid m -105 -91 -108 -112 EBITDA Margin % 8.0 8.7 7.7 7.0 Other m 2,740 -649 -790 -887 EBIT Margin % 2.1 3.9 4.0 4.2 Operating Cashflow m 4,138 1,311 934 483 Net Profit Margin % 1.6 3.4 3.5 3.8 Acquisitions m 0 0 0 0 Payout Ratio % 38.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 Capex m -1,434 -1,961 -1,400 -1,000 EV/EBITDA x 7.5 4.5 3.8 4.0 Asset Sales m 0 0 0 0 EV/EBIT x 28.4 10.1 7.4 6.6 Other m 139 232 -127 -142 Investing Cashflow m -1,295 -1,729 -1,527 -1,142 Balance Sheet Ratios Dividend (Ordinary) m -114 -258 -359 -399 ROE % 12.0 30.1 31.9 28.4 Equity Raised m 0 0 0 0 ROA % 2.9 6.5 6.7 6.1 Debt Movements m -3,583 1,906 1,273 1,417 ROIC % 5.5 20.2 19.8 17.3 Other m 26 -468 -108 -112 Net Debt/Equity % 94.2 95.9 96.5 96.7 Financing Cashflow m -3,671 1,180 806 905 Interest Cover x 3.9 13.1 15.0 16.1 Price/Book x 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.4 Net Chg in Cash/Debt m -828 763 212 247 Book Value per Share 2.5 3.2 4.1 5.0 Free Cashflow m 2,704 -650 -466 -517

Balance Sheet 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Cash m 142 905 1,117 1,364 Receivables m 6,070 7,914 10,016 12,356 Inventories m 2,649 5,845 7,397 9,126 Investments m 0 0 0 0 Fixed Assets m 1,070 1,574 1,460 1,309 Intangibles m 1,410 1,692 1,692 1,692 Other Assets m 3,082 4,039 5,058 6,192 Total Assets m 14,423 21,969 26,740 32,038 Payables m 3,875 7,213 9,129 11,262 Short Term Debt m 2,690 4,792 6,064 7,481 Long Term Debt m 196 0 0 0 Provisions m 4,656 5,804 6,283 6,801 Other Liabilities m 93 107 136 168 Total Liabilities m 11,510 17,917 21,612 25,712 Shareholders' Funds m 2,909 3,955 5,031 6,229 Minority Interests m 4 97 97 97 Other m 0 0 0 0 Total S/H Equity m 2,913 4,052 5,128 6,327 Total Liab & S/H Funds m 14,423 21,969 26,740 32,038

All figures in HKD unless noted. Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, February 2015

2 February 2015 6 Macquarie Research TCL Communication Technology Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Volatility index definition* Financial definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand This is calculated from the volatility of historical All "Adjusted" data items have had the following Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return price movements. adjustments made: Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Very high–highest risk – Stock should be catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal – investors should be aware this stock is highly Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend speculative. revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & yield minority interests Macquarie – Asia/Europe High – stock should be expected to move up or Outperform – expected return >+10% down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% be aware this stock could be speculative. ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets Underperform – expected return <-10% ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average Medium – stock should be expected to move up total assets Macquarie First South - South Africa or down at least 30–40% in a year. ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Outperform – expected return >+10% Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Low–medium – stock should be expected to *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average Underperform – expected return <-10% move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. number of shares Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Low – stock should be expected to move up or All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return down at least 15–25% in a year. are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks Reporting Standards). only Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell Recommendations – 12 months 3000 index return Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index Fundamental Analyst recommendations return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 December 2014 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 51.80% 58.06% 45.07% 44.42% 60.54% 46.81% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.29% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 31.80% 27.37% 30.99% 50.10% 35.37% 33.51% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 3.08% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 16.39% 14.57% 23.94% 5.48% 4.08% 19.68% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.44% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

2618 HK vs HSI, & rec history

(all figures in HKD currency unless noted)

Note: Recommendation timeline – if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2015

12-month target price methodology 2618 HK: HK$11.02 based on a PER methodology

Company-specific disclosures:

Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/disclosures.

Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 16-Jan-2015 2618 HK Outperform HK$11.02 24-Apr-2014 2618 HK Outperform HK$11.40 25-Feb-2014 2618 HK Outperform HK$10.80 29-Oct-2013 2618 HK Outperform HK$7.70 19-Jun-2013 2618 HK Underperform HK$2.00 10-Aug-2012 2618 HK Underperform HK$.90

Target price risk disclosures: 2618 HK: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures.

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