74 / . 4p 6/2- D Senate He arin

GOVERNMENT Before the Committee on Appropriations Storage 1974

I t 1 u— • « — - • KA NS AS STA Tfc U N lV rifiS iY Y Natur al Di saste r M on ito rin g, Warn ing Disse mination, and Com m un ity Pr ep ared ne ss

CONGRESS, SECOND SESSION

Fiscal Year •975

SPECIAL HEARING

N a tu ra l D is a s te r M o n it o rin g , W a rn in g D is s e m in a ti o n , an d C o m m u n ity Preparedness

H E A R IN G B E FO R E T H E SUBCOMMITTEE ON DEPARTMENTS OF STATE, JUSTICE, AND COMMERCE, THE JUDICIARY, AND RELATED AGENCIES OF T H E COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATION S UNITED STATES SENATE NINE TY -TH IRD CONGRESS SE CO ND SE SS IO N

Printed fo r the use of the Committee on Appropriations

U.S . G O V ER N M EN T PR IN T IN G O FFIC E 29-545 O W A SH IN G TO N : 1974 SU BC OM MITTE E OF T H E COM MITTE E ON APP ROPR IA TIO NS

JO HN O. PA ST ORE, Rhode Isla nd , C hairm an JO H N L. M cC LELLA N , A rk an sas RO MAN L. H R U SK A , N ebra sk a M IK E M A N SFIE LD , M o n ta n a HIR A M L. FO NG, H aw aii E R N E S T F. H O LLIN G S, S o u th C aro li n a ED W A R D W. BRO O K E, M assach u sett s W A R R EN G. MAG NUSO N, W ash in g to n N O R R IS COTT ON, New H am p sh ir e TH O M A S F . EA G LETO N , M is so uri M IL TON It. YO UN G. N o rt h D akota ex of fic io

Ex O ff ic io M em ber s on D iplo m ati c and Consu la r I te ms J . W. F U L B R IG H T , A rk a n sa s G EO R G E I). A IK EN , V erm ont JO H N SPA R K M A N , A la bam a (I I) DEPARTMENTS OF STATE. JUSTICE, AND COMMERCE, THE JUDICIARY, AND RELATED AGENCIES APPRO­ PRIATIONS FOR FISCAL YEAR 1975

W ED N ESD A Y , F E B R U A R Y 20 , 19 74

U.S. S en ate , S ub co mmitte e of t h e C om m it te e on A pp ro pr ia ti ons , D.G. The subcom mittee me t a t 10 a.m., in room 1114, E vere tt McK inley Dirks en Office B uildi ng , li on. Th om as F. Eag le to n, pres iding. P re se nt: S en ator s Eag le to n an d Fo ng .

D EPARTM ENT OF CO MM ER CE

N at iona l O ce anic an d A tm os ph er ic A dm in istr ati on STATEMENTS OF: JOHN W. TOWNSEND, JR.. ASSOCIATE ADMINISTRATOR GEORGE P. CRESSMAN, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ACCOMPANIED BY: DAVID S. NATHAN, DIRECTOR, OFFICE OF BUDGET AND PRO­ GRAM ANALYSIS GERALD PETERSON, DIRECTOR, METEOROLOGICAL AND HY­ DROGRAPHIC OFFICE GEORGE N. BRANCATO, METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE, ST. LOUIS, MO., OFFICE, NATIONAL WEA THER SERVICE ROBERT E. BECK, DIRECTOR, OFFICE OF PROGRAMS AND BUDGET PAUL E. CLEMENTS, BUDGET OFFICER JOSEPH A. STRAHL, ASSISTANT CHIEF, OPERATIONS AND FIELD SERVICES DIVISION, NATIONAL WEA THER SERVICE

O PEN IN G ST A TEM EN T OF SE NA TO R EA GL ET ON

Sen at or E agleton. Go od mor ning , ladies an d gentlem en. T his m or ni ng the Su bc om mittee fo r the Dep ar tm en ts o f Sta te , Ju stic e, and Comm erc e, the Judic ia ry an d related agencie s will ho ld an ov er sigh t hea ring on the pr og ra m s of the Na tio na l Oc eanic an d Atm os ph eric A dm in istrat io n an d the fa ci lities of the Nationa l W ea th er Service , with rega rd to na tu ra l dis as te r mon ito rin g, war ni ng dissem ination, an d co mmun ity pr ep ared ne ss . On the ev en ing of No ve mbe r 24, 1973, tw o to rn ad oe s st ru ck in th e so ut he as t co rn er o f Miss ou ri, the so-cal led Bo otheel area . Thi s na tu ra l dis as te r resulte d in two de at hs an d ex tens ive pro pert y dama ge. (1) 2 In response to my subsequent inquiry. I was informed by the Na­ tional Weather Service that there had been a partial breakdown in the warning system serving the Bootheel area. T also contacted Senator John O. Pastore, chairman of the sub­ committee. and requested that the subcommittee hold an oversight hearing on not only what occurred in the Bootheel area and what steps have been taken to prevent a recurrence, but also how the total severe storm warning system is now operating and what needs to be done to maximize the effectiveness of the system. Senator Pastore was in complete accord with my suggestion and asked me to preside at this hearing. Our principal witnesses are Dr. John W. Townsend, Associate Ad­ ministrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra­ tion: and Dr. George P. Cressman, Director of the National Weather Service. PREPARED STATEMENT OF SENATOR SYMIN GTON Before these gentlemen proceed, we have a statement and some sup­ porting information from my distinguished colleague. Senator Stua rt Symington, that will be made a p art of the record a t this juncture. ["The information follows:] On November 24, 1973 a torna do struck the Boot heel are a of S outheast

Mis souri killing two re sid ent s of Dunkli n County. Three other persons we re killed in Shann on County the same day. Thr ough the investigative efforts of the D ail y Dunklin De mocrat in K en ne tt , Mis so ur i, it became apparent that these and f utu re tragedies mi ght be avo ided through more effici ent mana gem ent o f the Nat ional Storm Warning System.

The responsibi lit y for observing and re por tin g storm activity in

Sou the ast Mis souri is di vice d unique ly between three sections of the

Natio nal Wea the r S er vi ce ’s internal radar report ing and weathe r coo rdi nation system. Relay cente rs for the transmis sion of warnings between those sections are located in St. Louis, Memphis, Ten nessee, and Louisville, Kentucky.

These stations mus t rely o n radio and televisio n s tations in all three states to broadcast storm warni ngs to the public.

On November 24 sane of these broadc ast s tations we re no t no tif ied in time to wa rn cit izens of the impen ding danger. Mec hanical delays in the radar warni ng s yst em and t he lack of personn el at the relay centers p revent ed the dissemination of wa rnings to some of the stations ser ving the Bootheel area. At the sug ges tio n o f Jac k St apleton, Jr., pub lisher o f the

Daily H m k l i n De mo cr at , I asked Dr. George Cressman, Direc tor of the

Nation al Weathe r Servic e, to explain the cause of the dela ys in the weather war nin g system on Nov ember 24 and wh at steps w er e being taken to remedy this. In his reply, Dr. Cres sman stated:

"Our pri mary means for distri but ing wea ther inf orm ation to the news m ed ia is the N OA A Weather Wire Ser vic e (NWWS). Due to tariff regulations and the need to limit cir cuit traffic, the NWW S is composed o f intrastat e circuits. Mis sou ri and all o f its surrounding s tates hav e NWWS.

"The pri mary rel ay o f war nings b etween NWW S circ uits is accompli shed by our int ern al RARE P (Radar Report) and Warning Coordination (RAWARC) networ k, figur e enclosed, con sisting of five circuits. Relays b etw een RAWARC circuits are han dled by the canputer ized RAWARC Autanatic Mes sage Switchin g (RAMS) cen ter located in Wa shi ngt on, D.C. Tor nado warnings and other significant wea ther mes sa ge s have a to p prio rity at RAMS. These top pri ori ty messa ges are relayed accordin g to the order in wh ic h they are received. Depe nding upon the amount o f top priority traffic, the r elay of so me war nin g messa ges cou ld b e delayed. A dela y of just a f ew mi nutes in rel ayi ng a to rna do warnin g can, of course, be critical. 4

"On November 24, 197 3, a tornado caused two deaths in the Missouri Bootheel 1 1/2 miles ea st of Cla rkston, Dunklin County, at 10:25 p.ra. This tornado was covered by a watch bullet in issu ed at 5:50 p.m ., vali d from 6 p.m. to 1 a.m. Sunday. A severe thunderstorm warning was issu ed by the Weather Service Fore cast Office (WSFO) a t St. Louis fo r Dunklin County at 9:15 p.m ., followed by a torn ado warning at 9:45 p.m. These warnings were rela yed to the RAWARC cir cuits serving Tennessee and Kentucky. The State Relay Center (SRC) at Memphis enter ed the warnings on the Tennessee NWWS, but the Lo uis ville SRC did not en ter these warnings on the Kentucky NWWS as require d. In add ition to issuin g the warnings, WSFO St . Louis notified the Civil Defense of Dunklin County where community emergency procedures were taken, including tra ck ing the tornado by ca r. The Missouri Bootheel Commission was also no tified . "As well as we can determine, RANG relaye d the 9:45 p.m. tornado warning to the RAWARC ci rc uit s serving Kentucky and Tennessee between 10:10 p.m. and 10:15 p.m. Memphis SRC transmitted i t on the Tennessee NWWS between 10:11 and 10:17 p.m. Our in ability to determine ex ac tly when the warning was rec eived and tra nsmitted at Memphis is due to the lack of time to log a ll stat io n actions during c ritic a l, sho rtfu sed weather si tu ations. We were unable to determine what Memphis radio and te le vi sion stat io ns broadcast the se warnings, or when the broadcasts were made. The Paducah te le vi si on st at io n was unable to broadcast them, because they were not transmitted on the Kentucky NWWS." In an eff ort to prevent futur e breakdowns in communications between st ate relay cente rs and the weather service st ati ons, Dr. Cressman has taken sev era l steps to improve warning service s for the Bootheel area. Through the coo peratio n of the Defense Ci vil Preparedness Agency, a new in te rs ta te d ir ect comnunication line has been in st al le d between the Weather Service For ecast Office in St . Louis and the State Relay Station in Memphis. We had asked Dr. Cressman about the poss ib ility of establishing such a dir ect lin e following a suggestion in the Daily Dunklin Democrat. At the time of the tornados, a di re ct lin e alre ady was in opera tion between St . Louis and the Kentucky in tr ast ate warning system hea dqu arters in Lo uisville. Dr. Cressman al so noted th at the Fore cast Office in Lo uis ville has been in stru ct ed to transm it on its st ate wire a ll warnings which are received through the region al warning system and which cover areas wi thin 100 miles of its sta te boundaries. He assured us th at in fi sc al 1974 the National Weather Service would automate and speed up the exchanges between reg ional cir cu it s. Ce rta inly we would hope th at the National Weather 5

Service w ill be granted su ff ic ie nt funding to improve its storm warning system in ord er to more ef fe ct iv el y serv e those citiz en s who may become endangered through weather conditions over which they have no co ntrol. Each season seems to bring with i t new haza rds. The melting of winte r snows followed by spr ing rains could crea te a flood po te nt ia l along the Mississipp i River even grea ter than la st year when record flood leve ls le ft many Missourians homeless. I t is encouraging th at the National Weather Service has expanded its National Weather Service Warning System ale rt s to include flooding as well as tomadcs and other severe storms.

This warning system is the la st line of defense against sudden dis ast er. The sa fety of our ci tize ns depends upon the speed with which we can transm it the news of impending storms or flooding to those most likely to be affected . We should therefore make every eff ort to assure th at our warning system is the be st av ailable to allcw persons in storm areas su ff ic ie nt time to pr otec t them selv es, th eir fa m ili es , and th eir possessions . As a pa rt of th is rec ord I would like to include an art ic le from the November 27, 1973 Daily Dunklin Democrat, our le tte r of December 4, 1973 to the National Weather Service , and the December 27 reply from Dr. Cressman.

-0-0-0- -0- -0-0-0- 6

THE DAILY DUNKLIN DEMOCRAT, KENNETT, MISSOURI

N ove m be r 2 7 , 19 73

C o m m u n ic ati o n s Gap L e a v e s SeMo i n V oi d T or W e ath er W arn in g s

By DAIL Y DEMOCRAT was the explanation offered by St al l Newsma n Jack Cox, assistant dir ector of the Memphis station. Cax did­ Despite an extensive n’t mean the station wouldn’t s to r m warning system give storm warnings for r South­ that links Civil Defense, east Missouri, only th at his p o l ic e and electronic agen cy’s organizational . chart media, two D u n k lin places the Bootheel in the area served by the St. Louis weather Countians are dead as a station. resu lt of a . tornado Sat­ The Memphis station has di­ urday night that went un­ rec t responsibility for storm reported on several Mem­ warnings in 10 counties in phis television stations. Northeast Arkansas, 21 counties in western Tennessee and five A Daily Democrat investiga ­ counties in Northwest Missis­ tion of the procedures involved in the Issuance of severe storm sippi. warnings by the N a t i o n a l The Daily Democrat check of Weather Sendee reveals e se­ Saturday night’s storm warn­ rious communications void ings by the St. Louis office exists between the agency’s St. ■ shows numerous messages were Louis and Memphis stations, a . rela yed to agencies throughout void - tha t prevents direct com ­ Southeast Missouri but no di­ munication between the two rect communication was made units. 3 ' . ' with the Memphis office of the National W e a t h e r Service, The National Weather Service station at Lam bert Airport in which in turn services the St. Louis has the direct respon­ Memphis television stations. sibility for issuing severe According to William Wald- storm warnings throughout all heuser, supervising forecaster of Missouri, and tha t includes of the St. Louis weather bureau, the Bootheel. The Memphis sta­ calls were made to Civil De­ tion, The Daily Dem ocrat fense units, the Missouri High­ check shows, has no direct way Patrol, a volunteer storm responsibility for issuing sto rm watch service organized by the warnings to the Bootheel, de­ Bootheel Planning Commission spite the fact that its area does at Malden, and radio station? include counties in No rtheast at Pop lar Bluff, Kennett, Mal­ Arkansas and western Tennes­ den and Caruthersville. Sev­ see. The Bootheel area' is a eral of the stations did not an­ void on the Memphis station’s swer the Weather Service calls .. night, Waldheuser we ather map. » > ‘ Saturday “ We cannot give storm, warn­ said, probably because they had ings for Southeast Missouri,’* . gone off the air. Calls were an- 7

swered at KBOA In Kennett and 1 rer e J eforms or tornadoes in at Poplar Bluff,- the S t Louis the Bootheel. This would enable official said. . - ? the Memphis weather station to By 9:50 p.m. Saturday, the al er t Southeast Missouri’o s po ss ib ility of a tornado in the through direct broadcasts over Bootheel was plac ed, on the Memphis television stations, Weather Service’s * teletype, a just as is now done with warn­ sta te comm unications link call­ ings for Northe ast Arkansas and ed the Missouri-'Weather Wire. western Tennessee. Asked how Bootheel residents Waldheuser said the NAWAS could be assured of receiving line would be a direct connec­ severe weather bulletins on tion, always open for instant Memphis TV stations, Waldheu- comm unication between the two ser suggested the installation of stations. a dire ct St. Louis-to-Memphis Asked how such a line might telephone line, linking the two be installed, he said auth ority weathe r stations. Called NA WAS ‘ would have to be made by the (National’ Warning System ) the N a t i o n a l Weather Service’s line would enable the St. Louis weather station to notify the overall supe rvising agency, the Memphis station of possible se- U.S. Department of Commerce.

29-545 O - 74 -- 2 December 4, 1373

Dr. Oeorge Creiamn Rational Oceanic and Atmospheric Adm inistration Department of Commerce l4 th and Co nstitution Washington, D.C.

Dear Dr. Cresmman: Twc re side nt s of Timkl In County were k il le d In Tornadoes vbich struck Southeast Missouri November 24.

Based upon a preliminary in ve st ig at io n by the Daily Dunklin Democrat in Kennett, storm warning information was not dir ec tly av ai la bl e to a ll of the bro* least st ati ons which ser ve the "bootheel" area of our Sta te . As a resu lt , persons watching te le vis io n programs from Memphis, Tennessee or Paducah, Kentucky did not hear advis ory warnings which were sen t cut by the St. Louis o ff ic e of the Nationa l Weather Service . Suggested in the a rti cle ia the esta blishm ent of a di re ct 8t„ Louis to Memphis teleph one li n e to lin k the two weather st ati ons.

Clearly the na tte r requ ire s urgent at te ntion . We would appre­ ci ate your comments and sugg es tion s for a temporary so lu tion to ■ problem, in the event a storm occurs in the immediate future and any proposed long-ra nge ayste a which can overcome thia coaasunicatlon warning gap. Sinc er ely,

Stua rt Symington U.S. DEP ART MEN T OF COMMERCE Nation al Oceanic and Atm osp heric A dm inistration Rockville, Md 20 85 2 Wx2

Hon or ab le S tu a rt Sy mington U nited S ta te s Sen at e W as hi ng to n, D. C. 20510

De ar S enato r Sy mi ngton :

T his i s in re sp onse to you r l e t t e r of December 4 , 19 73 , co nce rn in g th e d is sem in ati o n of st orm w ar nin gs to b ro ad cast s ta tio n s serv in g th e B ooth ee l a re a of M is so u ri . We’ve re vi ew ed th is c a re f u lly . Our re vie w showed th a t th e w ar nin g a c ti o n s ta k en by our S t. Lou is o ff ic e we re ti m ely and th e s a f e ty a u th o r itie s in th e c o u n ti e s a ffe c te d to ok e f f e c tiv e a c ti o n s. A bre ak do wn in p a rt o f our d is tr ib u tio n p ro ced u re s, ho wev er , pre vente d d is se m in a ti o n to some of th e med ia s ta tio n s serv in g th e B ooth ee l are a .

Our pr im ar y means fo r d is tr ib u tin g w eath er in fo rm ati o n to th e news med ia i s th e NOAA W eather Wire S erv ic e (NWWS). Due to t a r i f f re gu­ la tio n s and th e need to li m i t c ir c u it t r a f f i c , th e NWWS is composed of in t r a s t a te c ir c u it s . M is so uri and a l l of i t s su rr o u n d in g s ta te s ha ve NWWS.

The pri m ar y re la y of w arn in gs be tw een NWWS c ir c u it s i s ac co m plish ed by our in te r n a l RAREP (R ad ar Rep or t) and Warn ing C o o rd in ati o n (RAWARC) net w ork , fig u re en clo sed , c o n s is ti n g of fiv e c i r c u i t s . Relay s betw een RAWARC c ir c u it s a re handle d by th e com pute ri ze d RAWARC Aut om at ic Me ssage Sw itchin g (RAMS) c e n te r lo c a te d in W as hi ng to n, D.C. To rnado w ar ni ngs and o th e r s ig n if ic a n t w eath er message s ha ve a top p r i o r it y a t RAMS. Th ese to p p r i o r it y m es sa ge s a re re la y ed acco rd in g to th e o rd er in which th ey a re re c e iv e d . De pend ing upo n th e amo unt of to p p r io r ity t r a f f i c , th e re la y of some war ni ng mes sa ge s could be dela yed. A d ela y of j u s t a few m in ut es in re la y in g a to rn ado war ni ng can, of co u rs e, be c r i t i c a l .

On November 24 , 19 73, a to rn ad o ca us ed two d eath s in th e M is so uri B oo th ee l 1 1/ 2 m il es e a s t of C la rk sto n , Dun klin Cou nt y, a t 10 :25 p.m . This to rn ad o was co ve re d by a watc h b u lle tin is su ed a t 5:5 0 p.m ., v a li d from 6 p.m . to 1 a. m . Sunday. A sev ere th unders to rm w ar ni ng was is su ed by th e W eather S erv ic e F o re cast O ff ic e (WSFO) a t S t. Lou is fo r Dun klin County a t 9:1 5 p .m ., fo llow ed by a to rn ado war ni ng a t 9:45 p.m . These w ar ni ng s were re la y ed to th e RAWARC c ir c u it s se rv in g Ten ne ss ee and Ken tuck y. The S ta te Relay C ente r (SRC) a t Memphis e n te re d th e w ar ni ng s on th e T en nes se e NWWS, but th e L o u is v ill e SRC did no t 10

e n te r th e se w ar ni ng s on th e Ke ntu cky NWWS as re q u ir e d . In a d d it io n to is s u in g th e w ar nin gs, WSFO S t. Lou is n o tifie d th e C iv il Defense of D un kl in County wh ere com munity em erg ency pro cedure s were ta k en , in c lu d in g tr a c k in g th e to rn ado by c a r. The M is so uri Boo th ee l Com mission was a ls o n o tifie d .

As w e ll as we can d ete rm in e, RAMS re la y ed th e 9:45 p.m . to rn ad o wa rn­ in g to th e RAWARC c ir c u it s se rv in g Ke ntu cky and T en nes se e betw een 10 :1 0 and 10 :15 p.m. Memphis SRC tr a n sm it te d i t on th e Ten ne ss ee NWWS betw een 10 :11 and 10 :1 7 p.m . Our in a b i li ty to det erm in e e x a c tl y when th e war ning was re c e iv e d and tr a n sm it te d a t Memphis is due to th e la c k of tim e to lo g a l l s ta tio n a c ti o n s duri ng c r i t i c a l , s h o rt- fu se d w eath er s itu a tio n s . We were unable to dete rm in e wh at Memphis ra d io and te le v is io n s ta tio n s b ro ad cast th ese w arn in gs, o r when th e b ro a d c a sts were made. The Pa ducah te le v is io n s ta tio n was unab le to b ro ad cast the m, bec au se th ey we re not tr a n sm it te d on th e Ke ntu cky NWWS.

We ha ve ta ken a number of ste p s to im prove th e w ar ni ng se rv ic e s fo r th e B ooth eel a re a . The Def en se C iv il P re pare dness Agency (DCPA) ha s be en re q u e ste d to fu rn is h WSFO S t. Lou is w ith an i n t e r s t a t e N ati o n al Warn ing Syste m (NAWAS) dr op on T en n ess ee's NAWAS. (T his i s th e d ir e c t S t. L ouis to Memphis te le p h o n e lin e d is cu ssed in your l e t t e r and th e D ail y D un kl in Democrat e d i t o r i a l . ) We b e li e v e ou r re q u e st w ill be g ra n te d . They alr e a d y ha ve a dr op on K entu cky's NAWAS. WSFO L o u is v ill e ha s be en in s tr u c te d to tr a n sm it on NWWS a l l w ar ni ng s wh ich a re re ceiv ed on RAWARC and wh ich are fo r a re a s w it h in 100 m il es of i t s s ta te boun d ari es We p la n in FY 1974 to au to m at e and sp ee d up th e RAWARC c i r c u it s . We a re a ls o tr y in g to fi n d way s to assu re f a s te r re la y of to rn ad o w ar nin gs on RAWARC c ir c u it s .

I a ssu re you we’ l l do our b e st to pro vid e th e b e st w ar nin g se rv ic e s p o s s ib le . The ste p s o u tl in e d above sh ould help to im prov e th e w ar ni ng se rv ic e s fo r th e B ooth ee l a re a .

S in c e re ly ,

Ge org e P. C re ssm aik ^ - ^ e c to r , N ati o n al W ea ther S erv ic e

E nclo su re s

12

INT RODUCTION O F ASSOCIATES

Senator E agleton. 1 )r. To wn sen d, yo n may proceed. I)r. T ownsend. 1 would like to introd uce the people accompan ying me. At my fa r left is Mr. Peterson , next to him we have Mr. George Branc ato. On my imm ediate left is I)r. George Pressma n, th e Director of the Na tional Weat her Serv ice. On my imm ediate righ t is Mr. Pau l Clemen ts, b udget officer, and next t o him is Mr. Robert Beck, Dir ector, Office of Pr og rams and Bud get.

NATU RAL disaster wa rning and preparedness fu nc tion s Mr. Ch airm an a nd m embers of the committee, 1 am pleased th at we have this op po rtu nity to te sti fy to day on N OA A prog ram s fo r n atu ral disaste r warning and pre pared ness. I will give an overview of pe rti ­ nent NO AA activities , the n, with your permission . Dr. George Cress- man , Direc tor of the Nationa l W ea ther Service, will discuss the to r­ nadoes which caused two de ath s and considerable dam age in the adjacent portio ns o f Mis souri. Arkansas and Ken tucky on Novem­ ber 24, 1973. Na tur al disasters continue to plague t his Nation. How ever, a record number of 1,107 torn ado es in 1973 caused only 87 dea ths, well below the average of 113. Ou r warning system and com munity pre pared ness prog ram s contr ibu ted signif ica ntl y to this reduced dea th toll. The natio nal responsibility fo r severe storm and Hood wa rning s lies with the Nationa l Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad ministratio n (N OAA). Ot he r agencies of the Federa l Government m ake m ajo r con­ tributions to the ope ration of the system . NOA A also supp orts na tural disaste r pre par edn ess plan ning in co­ opera tion with the Defense Civil Prepare dness Agency and prov ides assistance to State and com munity programs. Ou r extensiv e fac ilities are good and our systems are efficient but they are str aine d to the breaking p oin t by wid esp read major disasters which ove rload the system and by phenomena such as to rnadoes which req uire fas t reaction times. Th e form er Office of Em erg ency P rep are dn ess identified many needs in its Ja nuar y 1972 Report to Congress on Disaster Prepare dness which have been reaffirmed by survey s of subsequent disasters. The most urgent needs are fo r more efficient wa rning dissem ination and be tte r assista nce to community prep are dness plannin g. We view the wa rning sys tem as bein g composed o f th ree equally im­ po rtan t and interd ependent elem ents. These elem ents ar e: observing, wa rning prepa ratio n, an d warning dissemination .

GEOSTATIONARY OI’ERATIONA I. EN VIRO NM EN TA L SATELLITE SYSTEM (GOES) Th e first of these, obs erving , requires a multip lic ity of equipm ents and network s th at detect, mea sure, and trac k specific haz ardous phenom ena. We conti nu ally exploit ou r expa nd ing technology. For exam ple, th e geostation ary o perational env ironm ent al satel lite system is expected to be o peratio na l later this year. The GO ES system off'ere rad ica lly new and impro ved methods of iden tif ying poten tial locations of severe weather and tor nado -produ cin g thu nders tor ms . 13 Satellite data must be supplemented for effective use in warnings on severe local storms. To do this we plan to fill gaps in the present radar network, modernize it. and develop more efficient applications of radar data. AAre plan to extend the network of river and rainfall stations to a total of about 10,000 stations, one-half of which should lx 1 automated. About 15 percent of the present network of 5,500 stations is now automated. Aircraft provide another important source of specialized informa­ tion. Planned improvements to the XOAA aircraft fleet are vital to Project STORMF1 RY which has shown potential in decreasing the maximum wind speeds in hurricanes. The XOAA aircraft can also collect data for studies of severe local storms and tornadoes.

GOES SYSTEM

Senator E agleton. May 1 break in there? Let's backtrack a bit to where you were talk ing about GOES, which is the new satellite you expect to have on line later this year. Is that the one that will coordinate 10.000 rainfall and river stations? Dr. T ownsend. X o: the GOES system is used primarily for pro­ ducing pictures of the full disc of the Earth with a resolution of about 1 mile. This is considerably better than the pictures you see on TV, which come from a research satellite called ATS. The reason I hesitated initially was that the GOES satellite does have the ability to automatically relay remote station data back to a central location. The central locat ion can interrogate out or the remote station can continuously provide information through the satellite. In that sense. GOES is useful in the collection of (lata from river and rainfall stations. AVo do plan to automate a number of those systems through GOES, but only where they cannot be connected up to local power or telephone lines. Senator E agleton. Then what you plan to have is 10,000 rainfall and river stations as an optimum. You don't have that now. You only have 5,500; is that correct ? I)r. Townsend. That is correct. Senator E agleton. Y ou want to have them automated and now only 15 percent are automated, is that right? Dr. Townsend. Right.

WARN I NG I’REI’ARATION The second element of the warning system, warning preparation, depends on rapid centralized analysis and computer processing of data. A more powerful fourth-generation computer system being in­ stalled at Suitland. Md., will permit improved operational forecasts as well as expanded research and development. The President's fiscal year 1975 budget includes funds for imple­ mentation of the first operational phase of the automation of field operations and services (AEOS) which will provide for minicom­ puters and TA’-type displays at key forecast offices and river forecast centers. 14

Th e automated fea tures of AFO S will improve the accuracy and timelin ess of wa rning messages and gre atly expan d the cap acity oi the wa rning system to efficiently handle the excessive workloads g en­ erated by widespread ma jor disasters.

DIS SEMINA TIO N Dissem ination is the th ir d elem ent in the wa rning system . None of the special purpose dis sem ina tion systems now in use is sufficient in itself. The y sup pleme nt one anoth er to reach the greates t num ber of people. NO AA ’s rada r repo rt an d wa rning coo rdination circuit, and the natio nal wa rning system network of the Defense Civil Pre pared ness Agency are used for interna l office-to-office communications. Th e N OAA W eat her W ire Service, the na tional wa rning system, and local pub lic service teletype writ er circuits are used to provide in fo r­ ma tio n to the mass news med ia and Governmen t officials. Th e prim ary means of d ire ct public contact is the broadca st by com­ mercial radio and T V sta tio ns of w arn ing s p repa red bv NOAA. Ho w­ ever. NOAA also tra ns mits warnings directly to the public by V H F / FM continu ous weath er radio transmissio ns, mu ltip le access recorded teleph one announcem ent systems and a few local civil defense sire n systems. The V H F/F M rad io and telephone wa rning dissemination systems are plan ned for exp ansion and imp rovement. W arning s m ust be accurat e and timely, but public response depends on ade quate community pre pared ness. This is the final lin k in the chain of Fe de ral-S tate com munity pro gra ms to mi tig ate the impact of na tu ra l disasters. NO AA prov ides risk assessment inf orm ation on atm ospheric ph e­ nom ena that cause disaste rs and has a conti nuing pro gra m for the pr ep aration of storm evacu ation charts for the Gulf of Mexico and Atla ntic coastlines. NO AA 's pre par edn ess assistance pro gra ms are ca rri ed out in coo rdination with the Defense Civil Prepare dness Agency.

FEDERAL PLA N FOR NA TCRA L DISASTER WA RNING AND PREPAREDNESS

In Ju ne 1973, NOAA pub lish ed a “F edera l Pl an fo r Na tural Dis­ as ter W arning and Pr ep ared ne ss” which was prepare d with the assist­ ance of several other agencies. The pla n pre sen ts a coordin ated re­ sponse to the needs t ha t are known to exist in our pro gra ms to detect, predict, warn, and p repa re for na tural disa sters. 1 have copies of the plan if members of th is com mittee desire them . We are now preparing a supplem ent to the pla n to reflect the Pr es i­ de nt ’s fiscal year 1975 budget, which c ontinues to recognize the imp or­ tance of disaster wa rning a nd preparedn ess pro grams. 15

XOA A BU DG ET AM O U N TS FOR NE ED ED DISA ST ER W ARNIN G 1 have made references to past budget increases of XOAA that were directed to improving our natural disaster warning system and community preparedness efforts. I have also described planned im­ provements in many elements of our systems which will require fu r­ the r budget increases. The total amounts are summarized as follows: Fis cal ye ar i M illions 1972— Ap p ro p ri ate d ______$145, 089 1973— Ap p ro p ri ate d ______170,1 57 1974— Ap p ro p ri ate d ______202, 619 1975— Req ue sted ______226, 263 Recent budget increases show a 50 percent increase.

CO NCL USION In conclusion, I would like briefly to summarize my testimony by making the following points. First, the United States has an extensive and efficient natural disas­ ter warning and preparedness system, but identified needs have yet to be fully satisfied. Each year disasters continue to take a toll in lives and property damage tha t is of deep concern to us all. Second, advances in technology and continuing operations require a continuing investment to maintain and extend the capabilities of the system. Last, we have developed balanced programs to satisfy demands on XOAA warning systems and services. These functions have been given highest priority in recent Presidential budgets and favorable consider­ ation by the Congress. We hope this trend will continue so long as we can identify worthwhile means of improving our performance. Mr. Chairman, that completes my verbal testimony. I have a more detailed statement I would like to submit for the record. I will be glad to answer any questions now, or after I)r. Cressman presents his testi­ mony. PR EP AR ED STA TEM EN T AN D CO PY OF “ FE DE RA L P L A N ’’

Senator E agleton. Doctor, we would be pleased to have a copy of your “ Federal Plan for Natural Disaster Warning and Preparedness." It will be made a part of the record. We will also include your full statement in the record. [ The statement follows:] [A copy of “A Federal Plan for National Disaster Warning and Preparedness" has been forwarded to Senator Eagleton and is avail­ able in the committee files.]

2 9 -5 4 5 O - 74 - - 3 16

Mr. Chairman and M embers of the subcommittee, I am ple ased that we have this opportunity to testify today on NOAA programs for

natural disaster warning and preparedness. Our testimony will be

in two parts— first, I will give an overview of NOAA activities

covering the broad areas of disaster monitoring, warning preparation,

warning dissemination, and community preparedness; then, with your

permission, Dr. George Cressman, Director of the National Weather

Service, will discuss the situation of November 24, 1973, in which

tornadoes caused two deaths and considerable damage in portions of

Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky.

Natural disasters continue to plague this nation. For example,

1972 produced record floods and 1973 produced a record-setting total

of 1,107 tornadoes. This is considerably higher than the annual

average of 681 and the previous one-year record of 929 which occurred

in 1967. I think it is highly significant that although there was a

record number of tornadoes in 1973, they caused only 87 deaths, well

below the average of 113. Our warning system and community preparedness

programs made a significant contribution to this reduced death toll.

The year 1973 also saw prolonged floods of record on the Mississippi

River. Here again the system worked very well.

As you know, the national responsibility for severe storm and

flood warnings lies with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(NOAA). The national natural disaster warning system is operated by

NOAA’s National Weather Service, but other parts of NOAA and other

agencies of the Federal Government provide key facilities and make major

contributions to the system. The Departments of Commerce, Interior,

Agriculture, Defense, Housing and Urban Development, and Transportation,

as well as NASA and the National Science Foundation are integral to this

fully coordinated national system. NOAA also supports natural disaster

preparedness planning in cooperation with the Defense Civil Preparedness

Agency and provides assistance to state and local programs. 17

To carry out natural disaster warning responsibilities, NQAA operates extensive facilities and systems. Our facilities are good and our systems are efficient but they are strained to the breaking point in two types of situations. First, widespread major disasters simply overload and overwhelm the capacity of the system. This was the case in some areas in the devastating floods following Hurricane Agnes in

1972. The second situation involves highly destructive phenomena such as tornadoes which occur rapidly and on a very small scale placing enormous demands upon the reaction time of our system.

The former Office of Emergency Preparedness identified many needs in its January 1972 "P.eport to Congress on Disaster Preparedness.”

The findings of that landmark report have been reaffirmed by post-disaster surveys of subsequent disasters such as the floods of Rapid City and

Hurricane Agnes. We learned long ago that experience is a great proving ground and teacher so each major disaster is surveyed to evaluate the effectiveness of all elements of our systems involved in detection, prediction, and warning dissemination. Particular attention is given to determining if system elements functioned adequately, and if they did not, why, and what is needed to prevent recurrence of the deficiency.

Requirements identified by these surveys are frequently beyond the existing capability and resources of NOAA and therefore evolve into requests for budget increases. As I review for you the NOAA programs directed toward our major objective to reduce the economic and social disruption of natural disasters, I shall also describe the considerable success we have achieved in recent years in our budget requests needed to attain this objective. Even with this success, many improvements remain to be made. The most urgent of these needs are to achieve more efficient warning dissemination and to provide better assistance to community preparedness planning.

We view the warning system as being composed of three equally important and interdependent elements. These elements are: 18

o O bs er vi ng

o Warn ing p re p a r a tio n , and

o Warn ing d is se m in a ti o n

The f i r s t o f th e s e , o b se rv in g , must d e te c t, m ea su re , and tr a c k s p e c if ic haz ard ous phenom ena and, a t th e same ti m e, i t mus t pro vid e d a ta to su pport both f o r e c a s ts and v u ln e r a b ility assessm en ts o f th ese phen om en a. O bse rv in g r e q u ir e s a m u ltip lic ity of eq ui pm en t and n e t­ works th a t comp lem ent on e a n o th e r, some of wh ich p ro v id e h ig h ly s p e c ia liz e d in fo rm a ti o n .

We c o n ti n u a ll y develo p improv ed ways to e x p lo it our ex pa nd in g te ch n o lo g y . Fo r ex am ple , our pla nned im pr ov em en ts in c lu d e one of th e mo re o u ts ta n d in g te c h n o lo g ic a l dev el opm en ts in re c e n t y e a rs , th e

G e o sta ti o n a ry O p e ra ti o n a l E nvir onm enta l S a t e l l i t e (GOES). NASA w ill so on la unch th e f i r s t o p e ra tio n a l p ro to ty p e s a t e l l i t e and a two s p a c e c ra ft sy stem i s exp ecte d to be o p e ra tio n a l l a t e r t h is y e a r. The

GOES sy stem o f f e r s r a d ic a l l y new and im prov ed metho ds o f fo re c a s tin g b o th h u rric a n e s and se v e re lo c a l st orm s because we ca n obse rv e th e ir de ve lo pm en t alm ost c o n ti n u o u s ly . Fo r ex am ple , NOAA s c i e n t i s t s , w ork in g w it h d a ta fro m NASA's Adv anced Tec hn olog y S a t e l l i t e , ha ve le a rn e d th a t c e r ta in uniq ue cl oud fo rm ati o n s se en in th e s a t e l l i t e p ic tu r e s perm it i d e n t i f ic a t i o n of p o te n tia l lo c a tio n s of sev ere w e a th e r. NOAA and NASA s c i e n t i s t s wor ki ng to g e th e r ha ve dete rm in ed th e d e ta ile d c h a r a c t e r i s ti c f e a tu re s o f c e r ta in to rn ad o -p ro d u cin g th u n d ers to rm s, which th e o p e ra tio n a l g e o s ta tio n a ry s a t e l l i t e s w ill e n a b le us to obse rv e r o u tin e ly . O th er s tu d ie s ha ve c o n tr ib u te d to im prov ed fo re c a s ts o f h u rric a n e winds and r a i n f a l l , fo g , c le a r - a i r tu rb u le n c e , b liz z a r d s , c o a s ta l g a le s , and f la s h flo o d s .

The r e la ti v e ly b ro a d -s c a le s a t e l l i t e d a ta mus t be su pp le m en te d to p ro v id e th e d e ta i ls re q u ir e d fo r e f f e c tiv e w arn in gs on sev ere lo c a l sto rm s. To do t h is we a re fo ll o w in g a c a r e f u lly c o n sid ere d p la n to f i l l ga ps in th e p re se n t ra d a r netw ork , m oder niz e i t by re p la c in g worn 19

o u t an d o b so le te equip m ent, and c o n ti n u e to devel op more e f f i c ie n t

a p p lic a tio n s o f ra d a r d a ta su ch as in te g r a tio n w it h th e in fo rm a ti o n from

s a t e l l i t e s and th e net w ork o f r iv e r and r a i n f a l l s t a ti o n s . We pla n tc im pr ov e r e l i a b i l i t y o f r i v e r and r a i n f a l l s ta tio n s th ro ugh auto m ation

and by in c re a s in g th e numb er o f s ta tio n s u n t i l th e netw ork i s com ple te .

A t o t a l of about 10,0 00 s t a ti o n s i s needed, o n e -h a lf o f which sh ould

be auto m ate d. A ppro xim at el y 15 p e rc e n t o f th e p re s e n t net w ork of

5,5 00 s ta tio n s i s now auto m ate d.

F la sh flo o d s p re s e n t a s p e c ia l pr ob le m in both fo r e c a s tin g and

d e te c tio n in th a t th ey develo p over v ery sm all a re a s in extr em ely

sh o rt p e rio d s o f ti m e. R e la tiv e ly new and e f f e c tiv e au to m a ti c fla s h

flo o d ala rm d e v ic es a re b e in g te s te d in a num ber o f lo c a tio n s .

A ir c r a f t pro v id e a n o th e r im p o rt an t so urc e o f s p e c ia liz e d

in fo rm a ti o n . A e ria l re c o n n a is sa n c e by DOD a i r c r a f t i s use d e x te n s iv e ly

to c o ll e c t d e ta ile d d a ta , su ch a s win d fo rc e and c e n tr a l p re s s u re , on

se v e re w in te r st orm s and t r o p ic a l d is tu rb a n c e s . NOAA a i r c r a f t a re us ed

p rim a rily in w eat her m o d if ic a tio n re s e a rc h . Pla nned im pr ov em en ts

in c lu d e m o d ern iz ati o n o f th e NOAA a ir c r a f t f l e e t by phas ed re pla cem ent

o f o b s o le te a i r c r a f t and im pr ov ed in s tru m e n ta tio n . The se im pr ov em en ts

a re v i t a l to P ro je c t STORMFURY which has shown p o te n tia l in d e c re a sin g

th e maximum win d sp eeds in h u rric a n e s . R ese arc h to b e tte r u n ders ta nd

se v e re lo c a l st orm s i s now under st u d y and we p la n to in c re a s e th e NOAA efforts in future years. Eventually, NOAA aircraft will assist in this st u d y in a ma nner s im ila r to th a t wh ich has bee n so e f f e c tiv e in th e

F lo rid a experi m ents on in c re a s e d r a i n f a l l . The kn ow ledg e gain ed w ill a ls o a s s i s t us to b e tt e r u n d e rsta n d se v e re lo c a l st orm s and sh ould c o n tr ib u te to more a c c u ra te f o r e c a s ts and w arn in gs o f to rn a d o e s.

The se co nd el em en t o f th e w ar nin g sy st em , w ar nin g p r e p a ra tio n , mus t de pe nd on c e n tra liz e d a n a ly s is and p ro c e ss in g o f hu ge vo lumes of pow erf ul fo u rth -g e n e ra tio n co m pute r sy stem i s n e a rin g com ple ti on a t S u itla n d , M ar yla nd, fo r j o i n t use by th e N a ti o n a l M e te o ro lo g ic a l 20

C ente r and th e N ati o n al E nvir onm enta l S a t e l l i t e S e rv ic e . T his in cre ased c a p a b ility w ill perm it im prov ed o p e ra tio n a l f o r e c a s ts as w e ll as ex pa nd ed re s e a rc h and dev el opm en t.

Im pr ov em en ts in te c h n iq u es an d f a c i l i t i e s o f our f i e l d fo r e c a s t o f f ic e s ha ve n o t kept pa ce w it h em er gin g te chnolo gy as ha ve our n a ti o n a l a n a ly s is an d fo re c a s tin g c e n te r s . However, we ha ve a pr og ra m to c o rre c t t h i s . The Autom ation of F ie ld O p e ra ti o n s and S e rv ic e s (AFOS) Sy ste m is now In p ro to ty p e de ve lo pm en t s ta g e . The P r e s id e n t's FY75 budget in clu d e s fu nds fo r im ple m enta tion o f th e f i r s t o p e ra tio n a l ph as e of AFOS wh ich w ill p ro v id e fo r m in i- com pute rs an d TV -ty pe d is p la y s a t ke y fo re c a s t o f f ic e s an d r iv e r f o re c a s t c e n te r s in th e f i e l d . Th ese a re to be in te rc o n n e c te d w it h ea ch o th e r , w it h n a ti o n a l c e n te rs and w it h f ie ld s e rv ic e o f f ic e s by hig h sp ee d co m m un ic at io ns lin k s . The auto m at ed f e a tu r e s of AFOS w ill im prov e th e accura cy and tim e li n e s s of w ar ni ng m es sa ges and g r e a tly expand th e c a p a b it y o f th e w ar ni ng sy st em to e f f i c i e n t l y handle th e e x c e ssiv e w ork lo ad s g e n era te d by w id esp re ad m aj or d i s a s t e r s .

D is sem in ati o n i s th e th ir d ele m en t in th e w ar nin g sy ste m . Fo r maximum e f fe c tiv e n e s s , a c c u ra te w arn in gs of a l l ty p es of p o te n tia l

n a tu r a l d is a s te r s must re ac h a l l who ne ed th e in fo rm a ti o n w it h adeq uat e

le a d ti m e fo r makin g d e c is io n s an d ta k in g p r o te c tiv e a c tio n s . M u lt ip le w ar nin g d is se m in a ti o n sy st em s c u r re n tly in use a ls o serv e a s a means to

d is se m in a te g e n e ra l w eath er in fo rm a ti o n and f o r e c a s ts . None of th e

s p e c ia l purp ose sy st em s now in u se i s s u f f ic ie n t in i t s e l f . They

su pple m en t one a n o th e r to make w arn in gs a v a ila b le to th e g r e a te s t number of p e o p le we can re a c h . T e le ty p e w rit e r netw ork s, su ch a s NOAA’s Ra dar

R ep ort and Warn ing C o o rd in ati o n C ir c u it, and th e N a ti o n a l Warn ing System

te le p h o n e p a r ty - lin e ne tw or k o f th e Def en se C iv il P re p a re d n e ss Agency

a re use d fo r in te r n a l o f f ic e to o f f ic e co m m unic at io ns. The NOAA W eathe r

Wire S e rv ic e , th e N a ti o n a l W arning Sys tem and lo c a l p u b li c se rv ic e

te le ty p e w r ite r c ir c u it s a re use d to p ro v id e in fo rm a ti o n to th e mass news

med ia an d go ve rnmen t o f f i c i a l s . The N ati o n al W arn ing Sy stem i s a ls o 21

e s p e c ia lly u s e fu l f o r o b ta in in g fe ed back fro m v o lu n te e r o b se rv er s p o tte r

netw ork s and fro m p o lic e an d o th e r lo c a l a u th o r i t ie s in a re a s w ar ne d.

The pri m ary me ans o f d ir e c t p u b li c c o n ta c t i s th e b ro a d c a st by

co m m er ci al ra d io and TV s t a ti o n s of w arn in gs p re p are d by NOAA. However,

NOAA a ls o tra n s m its w arn in gs d ir e c tly to th e p u b lic by VHF/FM co nti nuous

w eath er ra d io tra n s m is s io n s , m u lt ip le a c c e ss re co rd ed te le p h o n e an no un ce ­

ment sy st em s and a few l o c a l c i v i l d e fe n se s ir e n sy ste m s. The VHF/FM

ra d io and te le p h o n e w arn in g d is se m in a ti o n sy st em s a re pla nned fo r

expansio n and im pr ov em en t.

A no th er sy st em , th e D e cis io n In fo rm ati o n D is tr ib u tio n Sy stem , i s

b e in g te s te d by th e D efe nse C iv il P re p a re d n e ss Ag en cy . I f f e a s ib le ,

i t w ill be use d fo r b o th a tta c k w ar nin gs and fo r w arn in gs o f n a tu ra l

d i s a s t e r s . In th e lo ng te rm , NOAA in c o n ju n c ti o n w it h NASA i s st u d y in g

th e f e a s i b i l i t y of a D is a s te r Warn ing S a t e l l i t e Sy stem th a t m ig ht be

a v a ila b le by th e 1980's f o r both th e d is se m in a ti o n o f n a tu r a l d is a s te r

w arn in gs and th e c o lle c tio n o f d a ta and fe ed back in fo rm a ti o n b e fo re and

during natural disasters.

W arning s mus t be a c c u ra te and ti m e ly , b u t p u b lic re sp o n se de pe nd s

on adequate comm unity p re p a re d n e s s. T his i s th e f i n a l lin k in th e ch ain

o f F ed era l- S ta te -c o m m u n it y pr og ra m s to m itig a te th e im pac t o f n a tu ra l

d i s a s t e r s . NOAA r o u tin e ly p ro v id e s r is k ass ess m ent in fo rm a ti o n on th e fr equency o f o c cu rr e n ce s and in te n s i t y o f atm osp heri c phe nomena th a t cau se d i s a s t e r s .

In a d d itio n , th e NOAA N a ti o n a l Ocean Sur ve y has a c o n ti n u in g pr og ram fo r

th e p re p a ra ti o n o f st orm e v ac u ati o n c h a rts fo r th e G ulf o f Mexico and

A tla n tic c o a s tlin e s . NOAA's p re p are d n ess a s s is ta n c e pr og ra m s a re

c a r r ie d o u t p rim a rily th ro u g h th e f i e l d o f f ic e s of th e N a ti o n a l W eather

S e rv ic e . A re c e n t j o in t ag re em en t be tw ee n th e D ef en se C iv il P re p are d n ess

Agency and NOAA p ro v id e s f o r f u l l c o o rd in a ti o n o f p re p a re d n e ss pla n n in g

a s s is ta n c e to com m unitie s. The prog ram i s giv en em phas is s e a so n a ll y

fo r d if f e r e n t ty p es o f st orm s in a re a s whe re th ey m ost fre q u e n tl y occur 22 u sin g a p p ro p ria te pam phle ts an d v e rb a l p r e s e n ta tio n s . H urr ic ane p re p a re d n e ss s p e c ia li s ts ha ve bee n assig n ed to H u rr ic an e Warn ing

O ffic e s to a s s i s t co m m un itie s in o rg a n iz in g th e i r p re p are d n ess e f f o r t s .

We p la n to a ssig n a d d itio n a l comm unity p re p are d n ess s p e c ia li s ts to

W ea ther S erv ic e F o re c a st O ffic e s in th e fu tu re to perf orm s e v e ra l ta s k s , in c lu d in g :

o im pr ov in g fla s h flo o d w ar nin g sy st em s;

o develo pin g to rn ado an d se v e re st orm s p o tte r netw ork s; and

o comm unity p re p are d n ess p la n n in g a s s is ta n c e .

The P r e s id e n t's FY 197 3 and 1974 budgets re co g n iz ed th e need fo r in te ra g e n c y a c tio n and c o o rd in a ti o n of pr og ram s co nce rn ed w it h d is a s te r w arn in gs and comm unity p re p a re d n e s s. In co ns on an ce w it h th a t guid ance,

NOAA p u b li sh ed in Ju ne 1973 , a F e d e ra l Pla n fo r N a tu ra l D is a s te r Wa rning and P re p are d n ess which was p re p are d w it h th e a s s is ta n c e of se v e ra l o th e r a g e n c ie s. The P la n was conce iv ed as a j o i n t e f f o r t of th e ag en c ie s in v o lv e d to p re se n t a c o o rd in a te d re sp o n se to th e need s th a t a re known to e x is t in ou r pr og ra m s to d e te c t, p r e d ic t, w ar n, and p re p a re fo r n a tu r a l d i s a s t e r s . C op ie s of th e Pla n a re a v a ila b le f o r mem bers of t h i s su bc om m ittee and ha ve been fu rn is h e d to a num ber o f o th e r

Members o f C ongre ss . The P r e s id e n t’s FY 75 budget c o n ti n u e s to re c o g n iz e th e im port ance o f d i s a s t e r w ar nin g and p re p are d n ess pro gra m s.

We a re now p re p a rin g a su pple m en t to th e Pla n to r e f l e c t re c e n t a c tio n s .

I ha ve made re fe re n c e s to p a s t budget in c re a s e s o f NOAA th a t wer e d ire c te d to Im pr ov ing our n a tu r a l d is a s te r w ar nin g sy stem and comm unity p re p are d n ess e f f o r t s . I ha ve a ls o d e sc ri b e d pla nned im pr ov em en ts in many ele m en ts of our sy st em s which w ill re q u ir e f u r th e r budget in c re a s e s . The t o ta l am ou nt s, p a s t and p la n n e d , wh ich we r e f e r to as th e " D is a s te r Pa ck ag e" a re summari zed a s fo ll o w s

FY 197 2 - A ppro pri ate d $145,0 89,0 00 FY 197 3 - A ppro pri ate d 170,1 57,0 00 FY 1974 - A pp ro p ri ate d 202,6 19,0 00 FY 197 5 - Req ue sted 226,2 63,0 00 23

In co n clu sio n I wo uld l ik e to b r i e f l y summarize my te sti m o n y by making th e fo ll o w in g p o in ts :

F i r s t , The U nit ed S ta te s has an e x te n siv e and e f f i c i e n t n a tu ra l

d i s a s t e r w arn in g and p re p are d n ess sy st em , b u t id e n tif ie d

nee ds ha ve y e t to be f u lly s a t i s f i e d . Ea ch y ear d is a s te r s

co n ti n u e to ta k e a t o l l in liv e s and p ro p e rty damage th a t

i s o f de ep co n cern to us a l l .

Sec ond, Ad va nces in te ch n o lo g y and c o n ti n u in g o p e ra tio n s re n d er

many of th e e le m en ts of th e w ar nin g sy st em — o b se rv in g ,

w ar ni ng p r e p a r a tio n , and w ar nin g d is s e m in a tio n —o b so le te

fro m tim e to ti m e and n e c e s s ita te re p la ce m en t. C ontinuin g

in vestm ent i s n e c e ssa ry to m a in ta in and ex te n d th e c a p a b il i ti e s

of th e sy st em .

L a s t, We ha ve develo ped b a la n ce d , ti m e-p has ed pr ogra m s to s a tis f y

unmet dem and s on NOAA sy st em s an d s e r v ic e s . The se giv e

a p p ro p ria te a tt e n ti o n to our mos t u rg e n t needs fo r more

e f f i c ie n t w arn in g d is se m in a ti o n and to p ro v id e b e tte r

a s s is ta n c e to comm unity p re p a re d n e ss p la n n in g . The

en vir onm enta l m o n it o rin g , p r e d ic tio n , and w ar nin g fu n c ti o n s

ha ve bee n g iv en h ig h e s t p r i o r i t y in re c e n t P r e s id e n tia l

budgets and fa v o ra b le c o n s id e ra ti o n by th e C ongre ss . T his

i s evid ence d by th e in c re a s e o f $67,2 98,0 00 ap pr oved by

th e Con gr es s f o r 19 72 , 19 73 , and 1974 fo r t h i s prog ram and

by th e in c re a s e o f $23,6 44,0 00 re q u e ste d by th e P re sid e n t

fo r 19 75 . We e x p ec t th is tr e n d to c o n ti n u e so lo ng as we

ca n id e n tif y w ort hw hil e me ans o f im pro vin g our perf orm ance .

Mr. Cha irm an , th a t com ple te s my p o rtio n o f th e NOAA te sti m o n y .

I w ill be gla d to an sw er an y q u e sti o n s now , o r a f t e r D r. Cressm an p re s e n ts h is te sti m o n y .

29 -5 4 5 O - 74 - - 4 24

K EY ELE M E N TS OP W ARNIN G SY ST EM

Senator E agleton. Befor e going to Dr. Cressman; in your pre­ pared statement. Dr. Townsen d, you mentioned the three key ele­ ments in the warning system : One, observing: two. warning prepara­ tion, and three, warning dissemination.

W EA KES T L IN K IN W ARNIN G SY ST EM O f those three interconnected links in the chain, is any one o f the three the weakest? Dr. T ownsend. Yes, sir. I would say warning dissemination is the weakest by the very nature of the problem. Reaching all of the people at any hour of the day or night in all parts of the country is a for­ midable problem. In my statement. I said quite apart from N O A A ’s technical job. each community can pla y a vital role for itse lf in preparing for natu­ ral disasters. I would say that kind of work is probably even weaker than the dissemination system. It depends on where you are in the country. If you are out in the so-called tornado alley, you find the commu­ nities are quite prepared. Th ey are used to the threat of tornadoes and the y work hard at ge tting ready. Likewise, along the gu lf coast, where hurricanes are relative ly common, you find the cities and com­ munities rela tively well prepared. Unfortun ately, where severe weather is less of a threat, you find less community interest. To summarize, I would say the weakest link is comm unity prepared­ ness. The weakest techn ical problem is dissemination.

vi if / fm transmissions

Senator E agleton. In y our statement you mentioned V H F and EM continuous transmissions. As a practical matter, do you rely mostly on commercial broa dcasting to alert the citizenry ? Dr. T ownsend. Yes, sir. Senator E agleton. The key question is, then, to observe the phenom­ ena. and as quickly as possible disseminate that information as expe­ ditiou sly as possible through commercial networks? Dr. T ownsend. Ye s, sir. the commercial networks giv e you the high ­ est p robability of con tacting the m ajority of the people. Senator E agleton. W ith respect to the tornado in Missouri in No ­ vember of 1973. what problems did N O AA come up against with dis­ semination of that information ? Dr. T ownsend. The preparedness system in the State of Missouri worked quite well. The problem was a number of the people in the Bootheel app arently listened to a distant TA" station. Our problem was getting to this T V station. Dr. Cressman will discuss it at this point. Senator E agleton. I will yield at this time. We welcome Senator Fong. 25

SEVERE STORM MO DIFICA TIO N Senator F ong. W ha t has NO AA done to am eliora te the force of torn adoes? Dr. T ownsend. We have no plans to m oderate tornad oes at th e pres­ ent time. We have research prog rams inv olv ing the severe conv ective process, the th un de rstorm —which, in some cases, when it is large and violent, produces a tornado. We are tryin g to un derstand th at con ­ vective problem , hut we have no prog ram s to mo dify a to rnado as yet. We have attem pted to mo dify hurricanes and have heen successful in reducing the w ind fields on two or thre e occasions. I say ap pa rently successful because we have a physical model th at leads ns lo believe th at we can un derstand tin* storm and we can sim u­ late a storm seeding in th at model. We went out and tried it ex pe ri­ me nta lly, and abo ut wha t we expected occ urred. We are op tim istic there. In terms of the tornad o, my guess would he th at we are well away from any ability to modify or change the tornado -produ cin g th un de r­ storm. Senator F ong. Is NOA A working on a process? I)r. T ownsend. Sir, within the Federal Gover nment, there are pro ­ gra ms addressed at mo dif yin g severe storms to some extent. For ex ­ ample. the National Science Fo un da tio n, with the cooperatio n of a number of agencies, ha s a program th at is l>eing run in no rth we st Colo­ rad o to att em pt to mod ify hail from severe thu nders torms . Again, the manner in which this is done and the physical model fo r it do not indicate, at least to me. th at one could change a tornad o in that kind of a fashion. Senator F ong. Wo uld the responsibility lie in N OAA or the National Science Foundat ion or somewhere else ? Dr. T ownsend. The respo nsibility is sh ared. The Science Fou nd ation and N OAA p lay the m ain role. Senator F ong. T ha nk you. Senator E agleton. Th an k you. S enato r Fon g. Dr. Cressman ? statement of di:, cressman Dr. C ressman. Mr. Ch airma n and mem bers o f the committee, I am here today to testify con cerning the tornadoes which struck the Boot- heel area of Missouri on the 24th of November 1973. Betw een 10: 25 and 10: 2,0 p.m. No vemb er 24. two tornad oes st ruck in the Bootheel area of Missouri. Altho ugh the warnings issued were tim ely a nd acc ura te, two lives were lost. We are not sure everyone go t the word. A serious problem in ma kin g a warning system 100 percent effective is to reach all citizens in the area reg ard less of w hat they may lx?, doing. In pa rtic ul ar , people may be asleep in lied or listen ing to rad io or television sta tio ns a hundred or m ore miles away. Th is prob ­ lem has arisen in ot he r instances in different State s du ring the last year. As we review the events of November 24. we will go over the par tic­ ul ar aspects of the difficulty as it affected th e wa rning s for Bootheel.

internal and external systems To fully app recia te the events of t ha t eve ning, it is necessary to have some bac kgroun d of the co mm unication fac ilities used by the National Weather Service to ha nd le wa rning messages. Th ey a re essentially of 26 two kin ds: in ternal system s to t rans mit messages to other NW S offices, an d external systems to dissem inate the wa rning s to the pub lic via rad io and T V and to law enforcement and civil d efense autho rities who in t urn can a ctivate th ei r ow n aler t systems, | See figure 1. page 27,J

RADAR REPORT AND WAR NING COORDINATION TELETYPEWR ITE R NET WORK (RAWARC)

I)r. Cressman. The Radar Report and W arning Coordination Tele­ type writer Netwo rk (R AW ARC) is an internal system, a nd is shown on the firs t c hart. It is a lan dline telety pewr ite r n etw ork consisting of five c ircuits which ter minates at both Ka nsas City and Su itland, Md. Th e Com munications Ce nter at the Na tional Severe Sto rms Forec ast Ce nte r (N SS FC ) at Kan sa s City is the monitor station. Su itlan d per ­ form s the com puter relay fun ctions between RA WAR C circuits. The traffic on RAWARC is basically unscheduled and is handled according to a pr iority system. Th e only regu larly scheduled ope ration on RAWARC is an hourly collection of radar reports which are re­ layed by S uitla nd as re quired. Th e pr iorit y system has two categories—severe w eathe r info rm ation (wa tches, tornado wa rning s, and so for th ) and rou tine weather (zone. St ate forecasts, and tempe rature bu lle tin s). The RA WAR C consists of a combination of 75 an d 100 wpm circuits. Kentu cky , Tennessee, a nd Missouri a re each on diffe ren t circuits. | See figure 2. page 28. j

NOAA WE AT HE R WIRE SERVICE (N W W S)

I)r. Cressman. N OA A W eather Wire Service (N W W S) is an ex ter­ nal system. Th is is the tel etyp ew riter system operated by the NW S which makes a rou nd-the-clock weather service available to mass news dissem ination media an d other subscribers. NW WS cu rre ntl y covers 30 State s, e ith er wholly or pa rti ally. Plan s call f or completely covering the contiguous Un ited St ates as funds become ava ilab le. The NW S pays fo r th e line ch arges to a ce ntra l location in a us er area an d the user pay s for the equipm ent and line cha rge from the central location. Due to tar iff restricti on s and the need to lim it a nd select the material tra nsmitted , the cir cuits are ope rated on a State-by -State basis. In ­ form ation can be relayed between circuits as req uir ed by means of an overlay circuit. Ea ch W ea ther Service office (W SO ) can enter ma ter ial on the circuit and one office, usually the Weather Serv ice fore cast of ­ fice for the Sta te, serves as a S tate rela y center (S R C ). | See figure 3. page 29.] 27

F ig . 1 IN TERNA L RA RE P AN D W ARNIN G CO O RDIN A TIO N S Y S TE M

ALL STATIONS ARE WSO’S UNLESS INDICATED OTHERWISE NHC NAT IONAL HURRICA NE CENTER NSSFC NATIONAL SEVERE STORM FORECAST CENTER WSFO WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE WSMO WEATHER SERVICE MET EOROLOGICA L OBSERVATORY WSO WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WSRFC WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST CENTER NOAA WEATH ER IRE SERVICE

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L S n L E V A N W " - ' ^ 4 J ^ '' -H u NT „ v LEXINGTON HITA \CAIRO

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LITTLE ROCk S ^ E M P H IS — * . a THENS —-• f I I HUNTSVILLE '

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LEGEND: • INTRASTATE LOCATION INTERSTATE CONNECTION • ARROW TERMINATES IN THE STATE ON WHOSE NAWAS CIRCUIT THE OFFICE LOCATED AT THE ARROWS ORIGIN IS CONNECTED. 30

NA TI ONAL W A R N IN G SY ST EM (N AW AS)

Dr. Chessman. National Warning System—NAWAS—is an exter­ nal system. This is the Defense Civil Preparedness Agency—DCPA— operated hotline interstate telephone system which connects DCPA warning points within each State and between States. Most WSO's are connected with this system. Such circuits are operated on a State- by-State basis. Some WSO ’s have interstate connections with adja­ cent States. At the present time, the NWS has 218 intrastate and 67 interstate connections on this system, all funded by the DCPA. The system is very useful in disseminating NWS warnings and collecting severe weather information from Civil Defense and law enforcement agen­ cies. The NWS utilizes these circuits and works with the Missouri State Highway Patrol, civil defense, other law enforcement agencies, Mis­ souri Bootheel Commission, and mass news disseminators, and has developed a very effective warning system for the Missouri Bootheel. 'Phe Missouri Bootheel Commission is an organization of civic and business leaders residing in the area whose purpose is to promote the welfare and prosperity of the Bootheel in any possible manner. Peri­ odic meetings are held with all of the above organizations to improve the warning system for the Bootheel. Procedures in this system call for disseminating the warnings via NAWAS, NWWS, telephone, and law enforcement radio networks. Various agencies and individuals continually monitor these systems. | See figure 4. page 31.] I

9 48 48 PM 9

9 50 PM 50 9

RTR

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Oadley. Missouri Missouri ,0 30PM Oadley.

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Clarhton, Missaan 25PM Missaan 10 Clarhton,

. . . . flew laterrapttd 32

WA RNING S ISSUED TO BOO THEEL AREA----TORNADO WATCH

Dr. Cressman. On Novem ber 24, 1973, the reside nts of the Bootheel were alerted to'th e approach of severe s torm s by a series of messages. Th e National Severe Storms Fo recast Cente r in Ka nsas City, Mo., issued a tornado watch fo r th e Bootheel and su rro un ding areas at 5:50 p.m., valid from 6 p.m. November 24 to 1 a.m. Novemb er 25. This wa tch w as distr ibu ted by all affected S tate rela y cen ters on th e ap pr o­ pr iate c ircuits, tog eth er with the redefin ing stateme nt. The rede fining sta teme nt names the affected counties. All of the countie s l ater affected by the tornad oes were nam ed in thi s rede fining statem ent. Th e w atc h alerted all co ncerned NW S offices to continuo usly m onitor the situa tio n. Based on ra dar da ta, W SF O St. Lou is issued a severe thun de rstorm wa rning fo r Du nklin, Pem iscot, and New Ma drid Cou nties at 9:15 p.m. Th is wa rning , valid from 9:15 p.m. to 11 p.m., was giv en distr ibu tio n in the Missouri Bootheel on all ap prop ria te circuits. | See figure 5, page 33.] SEVERE WE ATHER IN M l' 1URI BOOTHEEL AREA November 24-2 5, 1973

ST. LOUIS

—I / \ . . C H A R L E S T O W 'C ^ 'P A DU C A H DL CO D U D LE Y-^ cc 10:30P.M^" *BOAZ______------10_30 ,._ 7 h ------^ ^ R IS C OFunnel -•■— cloud 25 /1:31A .M . ^7 CLA RKTON -. M A R M A D U K E * / 10 25 P.M . \ O NASHVIL LE J s '

M E M P H IS ' ___r._. y * - o 1 LITTLE ROCK T o rn a d o W a tc h Is s u e d 5 : 5 0 P M , \i V a li d 6 : 0 0 P M N o v e m b e r 2 4 to 1:00AM November 25. 1973 LEGEND • Tornado Location

o \ ■ ■ Tornado Path BIR MIN GHAM O We ath er Service Forecast Office 34

TORNADO WAR NING FOR BOOTHEEL AREA

Dr. Cressman. At 9 :45 p.m.. St. Louis, af te r rece iving a re po rt from AVSFO Memphis th at a ra dar hook echo was located n ear M arm adu ke, Ark. (Greene Cou nt y) . issued a to rnado wa rning , valid 9 :45 to 11 p.m. fo r Du nklin. Pem iscot an d New Madrid Cou nties in the Bootheel. A hook echo looks like a figure 6. and is one r ad ar in dic ation of a tornado. At the same time. Me mphis issued a torna do w arning for the counties of Cla v and Greene in north east Ark ans as. Both of these warnings were entered on the ap pr op riat e RA WAR C cir cuits so the relay to other RA WAR C cir cu its could he initiated . St. Louis and Mem phis entered their wa rning s on th eir St ate NW W S and oth er circuits. T un de rst an d th at the radio sta tio ns a t Ke nnett and Po pl ar Bluff. Mo., and the TV and radio sta tion at Cape Gira rdeau broadcast the St. Louis wa rning s ho rtly aft er it was received via the M issouri NW WS aro un d 9 :50 p.m. In addition , the St. Louis W SF O called the police de partm ent at Ma lden. Mo. (D un klin Co un ty), via comm ercial telephone. In tu rn the police departm ent contacted Mr. W ilb ur Th ornton , civil defense director of Du nk lin County. Accor ding to the warning pla n fo r the Bootheel. contac ting Mr. Th ornto n fulfills the re quireme nt for conta ct­ ing the Missouri Bootheel Commission. Mr. Thornton, in tu rn dis ­ trib uted the wa rning via citizens ban d rad io to othe r counties in the Bootheel. The Civil Defense of Du nk lin County, on rec eiving this warning, were able to follow the t orna do by autom obile. St. Txniis conta cted the Missouri State H ighw ay P at ro l via NA WAS and gave them the wa rn­ ing. The patrol also sub scribes to N WWS. and fan s out the w arnin g to othe r Missouri patro l divisio ns and other cou nty law enforcem ent agencies. By 9:55 p.m.. St. Louis had entered the 9:45 p.m. tornado wa rning on all teletype writ er circuits as well as the NA WAS and comm ercial telephone conta cts requ ired by the Bootheel wa rning pla n.

RAWARC CIR CU IT RELAY OE MESSAGES The rela y of messages fro m one RA WAR C cir cuit to anoth er is a c­ com plished at the NW S C ommunicatio n C enter located at the Natio nal Meteorological Cente r (NMC ) at Su itlan d. Md. Th is relay function is autom ate d and is p erform ed in a com puter which also handles a large numb er of oth er cir cu its which carry national an d intern ational en­ vironme nta l data. Our best inf orma tio n shows t hat the torn ado wa rn­ ing issued by St. L ouis at 9:45 p.m. was rela yed to the RA WAR C ci r­ cuit which serves Ke ntu cky at appro xim ate ly 10 p.m. It was also re­ layed to the RA WAR C circuit which serves Ar kansas a nd Tennessee, a slower speed circuit, between 10:10 and 10:15 p.m. The delay in the relay of messages between circuits, although it was ap pa rently not a sign ificant factor in t hi s instance, is a cause for some concern and will be ad dres sed a litt le la ter. Our Mem phis office received the 9:45 p.m. St. Louis wa rning via RA WAR C between 10:10 and 10:15 pm. and relayed it to the Te n­ nessee NW WS between 10:11 and 10:17 pm. We are not able to say exactly when Memphis received and tra ns mitted this warning, since no time entries are made on the t elety pewr ite r networks. Altho ugh all 35 warnings were probably not disseminated by radio or television sta­ tions in Memphis, the 9:45 p.m. tornado warning for the two north­ east Arkansas counties was broadcast at least once by some of the Memphis stations.

BREAKDOWN IN WA RN ING DIS SEMINA TIO N PROCEDURES A breakdown in the warning dissemination procedures occurred at our Louisville, Ky., forecast office. The tornado warning issued by St. Louis, and relayed about 10 p.m. to the RAWARC circuit serving Kentucky, should have been relayed manually to the Kentucky NOAA weather wire service, but wasn't. The purpose of the desired relay was to enable Bootheel residents listening to distant stations in Ken­ tucky to hear the warnings. However, this relay wasn't made, and the Paducah, Ky., television station didn't receive the warning. At Louisville there were two men on duty, the forecaster and the weather observer. Each was in a separate room working on his assigned duties. The teletypewriter machines are in a third room, located between the forecasting and observing rooms: the men on duty failed to hear the bells which signal that an important warning message is coming in on the teletypewriter. In retrospect we can see that it is not always practical to expect a busy man to hear a small bell in another room. The remedy is relatively inexpensive—a remote bell or light at the forecaster’s desk, and has been ordered. I See Chart 4. page 31.]

TORNADO DAMAGE AND I jOSS OF LI FE

I)r. P ressman. The tornado associated with the radar hook echo moved out of Arkansas and skipped intermittently across much of the Bootheel. There were several damage areas along a line from Marmaduke. Ark., to Clarkton, Mo., across Risco. Mo. to near Charles­ ton, Mo. in Mississippi County, then into Kentucky. Xo damage was reported from Kentucky. Two persons, a man and his wife, were killed near Clarkton, Mo., as the tornado moved across the area at 10:25 p.m. Six people were injured along the tornado's path. Damage was esti­ mated at $150,000 to $200,000. One home was destroyed near Gideon. Mo., but the family was in the cellar and escaped injury. Apparently they had heard the tornado warning broadcast by the radio and television stations in the Bootheel and had taken the necessary safety precautions. Another small tor­ nado struck Dudley in Stoddard County at 10:30 p.m. causing no deaths or injuries and only minor property damage. Stoddard County was not included in the warned area, though the county was named in the watch area about 4y2 hours earlier. From what we have lieen able to find out. radio and TV broadcast coverage of the warning for the Bootheel area was quite good. One radio station and the TV station at Cape Girardeau covered it. So did a Kennett. Mo., radio station before 10 p.m. A Popular Bluff. Mo., radio station also carried the warnings. The staff at the Sikeston radio sta­ tion could not recall whether they broadcast the warning. We in the Xational Weather Service continuously try to improve our service within our capabilities. This is especially true after natural disasters. f Sec Ch art 5. page 33.] 36

IMPROVEM ENTS TO WA RN ING SYST EM

Dr. C hessman. We ask ourselves how we could have improved our service. Since the November 24. 1973. tornadoes in the Bootheel. we have done the following: 1. At Louisville we have reissued the warning relay instructions to each employee. The main point here is the immediate relay onto the NOAA weather wire of any warnings for the seven neighboring States. 2. We have ordered a speedup to 100 words per minute of the remaining three RAWARC circuits, where the speed is now 75 words per minute. These serve the Midwest and the West. This should be done by April 1. 1974, and will provide increased capacity and faster dissemination. 3. We have requested DCPA to install telephone connections on the Tennessee NA WAS system at our St. Louis office and the Memphis radar site. That is at Millington, Tenn. This will permit the radar man to talk directly to St. Louis. Now let’s discuss what we plan to do. (а) We have ordered remote alerting devices to be attached to RAWARC teleprinters in offices where the communication facilities are not in the forecaster’s area. The alerting devices will provide a visible or audible indication at the forecaster’s desk that a warning message is being transm itted on RAWARC. The first of these remote alerting devices has been ordered for Louisville. The cost for the first year will be approximately $300 per station. (б) The automatic relay of warning information between RAWARC circuits takes too long. We are going to rewrite the com­ puter program that does the relay to exercise a better priority scheme so tornado warnings will be relayed faster. Together with the speedup of RAWARC circuits this will do the job.

FISCAL YEAR 1 9 75 BUDGET REQUESTS (c) The NOAA Weather Wire Service will be expanded to addi­ tional States as funds become available. As a result of our fiscal year 1974 budget request, the following States will be provided service: Arizona, Montana. Nebraska. New Hampshire. New York, Vermont, Virginia, and the northern parts of Michigan and Wisconsin. In fiscal year 1975 we have requested funds to expand the NWWS to the fol­ lowing States: California. Connecticut, Northern Idaho, Maine, Mas­ sachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Washington. Senator E agletov. I take it the NOAA Weather Wire Sendee is operable in all parts of Missouri ? Dr. Chessman. Yes. sir.

CO MMUN ITY PREPAREDN ESS PROGRAM (d) We will shortly establish a separate staff in the National Weather Service to concentrate on our Community Preparedness P ro­ gram. These people, working with others at our forecast offices, will work with civil groups to establish or improve emergency warning plans. 37

Dr. T ownsend men tioned one o f o ur majo r efforts tow ard improving ou r service du ring the next few years : the A uto ma tio n of F ield O pe ra­ tions and Service s (A FO S). T his will provide, among o ther imp rov e­ ments, hig h-speed autom atic rel ay and distr ibu tio n of wa rning s both internally and to radio, T V and press inte rests via the NO A A Weather W ire circuits. Th e Pr esiden t's fiscal ye ar 1975 budget requ ests additio na l fun ds to su pp or t the w arnin g service. In pa rti cu lar I draw to yo ur attenti on the fo llowing item s: 1. AFO S, which Dr. Townsend and I have both mentioned. 2. Rad ar, which will pro vid e local use rad ars at 25 lo cations aro und the country plus filling a ga p in ou r prim ary weath er ra dar network over south ern New York. 3. Comm unity Prepare dness , which will pro vide some addition al staff at foreca st offices to work with civil groups to establish emergency wa rning pl ans for variou s com munities. 4. NO AA Weather Wire, which will provide coverage fo r nine and a ha lf St at es : Maine. Massachu setts, ( ’onnecticu t. Rhode Island. Min­ nesota. No rth and South Dakota. Wash ing ton . Ca lifornia, and no rth­ ern Idah o. STAT ES IN CL UDED IX W EATH ER W IR E SE RV ICE

Se nator F agleton. You read off the State s th at will be br ou gh t into the system in fiscal 1974 and an othe r gro up of States in 1975. Wo uld the g roup of S tat es on pa ragr ap h four, page 10, be all of them? Dr. C ressman. No, sir. Tt is t he same as the list fo r fiscal 1975. Se na tor F agletox. After th at is done, will the re still be several State s not covered ? Dr. C ressman. I hope to clean them up in 1976. Se na tor F agletox. Then it is clea rly a matter of dollars. If you h ad more money, you could br ing m ore State s into th e sy stem ? Dr. C ressman. We have to have people and dollars. They go hand in han d. At the pre sen t time, the manual operations of t he NOAA Weather W ire Service require a good number o f people. Our minim um is three people for each relay station. T ha t requires time.

ST AT E PR IO RI TY EOR NO AA W EATH ER W IR E SERV ICE

Se nator F agletox. W ha t determines the pr io rity bv which State s are brought into the system ? Dr. C ressmax. Wherev er a St ate is subject to bad weath er, we have given it a hig h pr iorit y fo r the NOAA W eather W ire Service. As you can see on the ch art with the 1975 budget, we will have the vast tornado areas of the United States covered bv the NO AA system. Tt so happ ens th at the Gulf Coast and South eas t States are also included in t hi s group of States. 5. Sa tel lite, which will provide equipm ent fo r displaying inform a­ tion from the GOFS satellite at some 24 forecast offices th at don’t have this e quipment. 6. Flash Flo od W arning prog ram to pro vid e some people and equip me nt to e xpand ou r Hood warning pro gra m. 38 In the meantime, we will pursue the near time improvements, in­ cluding the reprograming of about $15,000 to install warning message alerting devices at the forecaster’s desks. This concludes my statement. I will be glad to answer questions.

FLASH FLOOD WA RNING PROGRAM

Senator E agleton. Let's take up item 6, the Flash Flood Warning program. It is my understanding that record floods are projected for the Nation this year; is that correct? Dr. C ressman. That is a little premature, Senator. If I may give you a lit tle sum mary of this situatio n. I will he gla d to do so now. Senator E agleton. Please proceed.

LOWER MISSOURI AND CENTRAL AND LOWER M IS SI SS IPPI FLOODS Dr. C ressman. The flood situation along the lower Missouri, and the central and lower Mississippi River has improved during the past few weeks. Senator E agleton. Y ou say it has improved in the last 2 weeks? Dr. Cressman. Yes, the situation has improved very rapidly during the past 2 weeks. Only scattered light rain has fallen since early Feb­ ruary on the lower Missouri and Mississippi Rivers southward to Vicksburg. We predict slowly falling water levels from Vicksburg to New Orleans. Senator E agleton. Y ou say stages have fallen on the lower Mis­ souri first? Dr. C ressman. Yes. Senator E agleton. What would be the parameters of what you describe to be the lower Missouri ? Dr. C ressman. I have here information concerning the Missouri River from Kansas City to St. Charles, which is near St. Louis. Senator E agleton. That is pa rt of the lower Missouri? Dr. Cressman. Yes, sir. Senator E agleton. The stages are now below flood level? Dr. C ressman. Yes, they are. They are also 4 or 5 feet below the levels at this time last year. Senator E agleton. They are below the stages at this time last year? Dr. C ressman. Yes, sir. They are well below flood stage.

MIDDLE MIS SI SS IP PI FLOODS

Senator E agleton. Now let us take up the situation in the Middle Mississippi River. First, describe that area for us. Dr. Cressman. Going from New Madrid. The present levels are at or below the stages at this time last year. From Quincy, Ill., to New Madrid, the stages are running again as much as 5 feet below the stages at this time last year. They are well below flood stages. The recent crest has passed through that area. Senator E agleton. From Quincy. Ill., through New Madrid, Mo., which is the southern extremity of Missouri, the stages are well below flood level? 39

Dr. Cressman. Yes, sir. The only exception is th e area from B ur­ lingto n, Iowa, to Qu inc y, Ill., which is still below flood level. If we the n go down the Mis sissippi, say fro m Mem phis, Tenn., to New Orleans, we are now dea ling wi th h igh stages in the a rea fro m Vicksburg, Miss., to New Orleans. Senator E agleton. W ould the hig h stages be high er th an t hi s tim e last year? Dr. C hessman. Yes, sir. The y are 5 to 7 f eet high er th an th ey were last year. The stage now is at about its maxim um aro und Baton Rouge, but fa rt her up the Mis sissippi, the rive r has fallen, so it is a coup le of feet below its stag e at this time last ye ar and about 8 feet below flood stage. Th e w ate r has moved dow n the Mississip pi and is now down to abo ut the m outh of the Mis sissippi and is moving out.

CA USE S OF VA RIAT IO NS IN RIVE R LEVE LS

Se nator E agleton. Since I am not a we ath er foreca ster or an ex­ pe rt, can you expla in to me as a layman, wha t phenomena has oc­ curre d th at causes, fo r instance, the riv er level from Bu rli ng ton to Quinc y to be equiv ale nt to wha t it was a ye ar ago at this time, yet from Quincy to New M ad rid , it is 5 feet below what it was? Dr. C hessman. I th in k, I would describe th at easiest by sayin g it was not hig h a t th is t im e last year. You will recall we ha d extensive rainfall up un til the begin nin g of Fe brua ry. Since th at tim e, it has almost stopped rainin g. As a res ult, the rive r has an o pp or tuni ty to let the water go down. Senator E agleton. Ye t, the stages down ne ar Vicksbu rg are quite hi gh ; are th ey n ot? Dr. C ressman. Yes, sir. Th at is the wa ter which was rainfall much ea rli er and is now on its way out the river. We have also looked at the snow situatio n because the me lting snow cover in the up pe r reaches of these riv ers could contr ibu te to flooding at a later time. So far, the snow cov er in the up pe r areas of the Mississ ippi and Missouri is about normal. We would have to have large rainfall to cause serious flooding. We are exp ecting more in th at are a, say in the Mississippi Ba sin , in the next day or so. How ever, it will req uire more than 1 or 2 days to give us a flood level.

long-range weather forecasts

Se nator E agleton. Can you give us your long-rang e foreca st? Based on what you hav e told us so far. rainfall has been almost non­ existent since the first pa rt of Fe bruary. The snow cover is ave rage, and thus, I tak e it, not overly worrisom e. W ha t do you pro jec t fo r us into the sp rin g? Dr. C ressman. Our skill at long-rang e forec astin g is not rea lly useful in th at respect. How ever. I will say th at in order to pro duce floods like we had las t year, we would need much above normal ra in ­ fal l. But th at is an improvem ent from the situatio n at the begin nin g 40 of February 1974 when, at that time, it looked as though normal rains would produce flooding. Senator E agleton. Had we had this hearing a month ago, your general projection at that time, based on what had occurred up until a month ago would have been that we were headed for some serious floods, equivalent to or even greater than those we had last year? Dr. Cressman. Yes, sir. Senator E agleton. Then, because of the sharp decline in rainfall since February 1, it is your opinion that if we experience normal rains from here on out we will be without any amount of flooding? Dr. C ressman. It depends how the rains fall, of course, but we would have no big troubles. The picture is much better now than it was a few weeks ago.

ACCURACY IN FORECASTS OF RA INFALL

Senator E agleton. Y ou say long-range forecasting is a vague art. How far in advance can you predict rainfall with some degree of rational accuracy ? Dr. C ressman. I thin k the best way I could pu t this is to say that we can forecast rainfall up until 4 to 5 days in advance. After that, we have very little skill in forecasting rainfall. Our skill at forecasting temperature extends farthe r into the future, but rainfall is more difficult. Senator E agleton. T o summarize further—you said the accumula­ tion of snow up north does not trouble you because it is within normal ranges? Dr. C ressman. Tha t is right. With one possible exception; tha t is, the Red River of the north. We have an accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. We are going to have to watch it closely. It is not a sign of trouble, vet, but it is something for us to watch. Senator E agleton. With that one exception then, if the rainfall is normal, we will get through the spring without significant flooding. Dr. Cressman. Yes, sir. Senator E agleton. If the rainfall is abnormally high, will we have problems? Dr. Cressman. Yes, sir. Senator E agleton. If we have abnormally high rainfall, where will the flood warning devices be placed, what are the costs involved, and how many will be needed ? Dr. Cressman. I thin k it would be wise if I distinguished between flash floods and a slow rising flood. A flash flood is a flood that occurs over a limited area over a short period of time where the water level comes up very rapidly, within a few hours. The water comes out of the streams and does damage to houses and roads. That is a flash flood. When we discuss the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers, we are deal­ ing with the long-range, slow rising floods.

FLA SH FLOOD W ARNIN G SY ST EM

Senator E agleton. Isn ’t there occasional flash flooding in the tribu­ taries leading to the Mississippi ? Dr. Cressman. Yes. sir. You can have that happen within 12 hours or 24 hours. We are seldom, if ever, free from that in the Missouri area. 41

Senator E agletox. W ha t wa rning mechanisms do we utilize to alert, us to flash flooding? Dr. C ressmax. We have a varie ty of ways of ge tti ng a t th at. First of all. we star t out with the central forecasts which origi nate from the National Meteorolog ical Cente r in Su itland. Md.. which are made for the entire cou ntry. On e of these foreca sts is a forec ast of how much precipita tio n will fall withi n a certain amoun t of time. At th e same time. we. have availabl e from ou r rive r forecast, system, a system describing how much rainfall is needed within specific period s to produce flooding. Tn ou r weather cen ters, they take the inform ation t ellin g how muc h rainfall is needed fo r flooding toge ther with the evidence from the National Meteorological Cente r as to how mu ch precipita tio n is ex­ pected. and this allo ws the m to evalu ate the da ng er o f flash flooding. Closer into the even t, a v aluable tool is rada r. I t gives very good in­ form ation on how much rai n falls. It also shows wh eth er or not ra in ­ fall will stay in one area or move across an area. In a dditio n to th at , we have rep orts, actu al rain gages from o ur own pers onnel, the FA A. an d ordina ry citizens who coopera te in taki ng these measurem ents and telep honin g them into our offices. Based upon the ra in fa ll rep orts from all these sources, our foreca st offices then issue flash flood warnings as a pp ropriate.

FL ASH FLOOD ALARM SYSTEM Anoth er device I sho uld m ention is th e flash flood ala rm system. The flash flood ala rm system is a sim ple device which consists of a float which is placed, say, in a stream or creek or riv er subje ct to flash flood­ ing. Wh en the riv er rise s the float reaches a preset point, and reaches con tact, this causes a loud, disagreeable noise in the office where the gag e is connected, indica tin g that the creek or rive r has reache d the dang er stage. These* flash flood alarm s have been secured in small volum e up to now. We have installed them in a few places in the Ap palac hia ns, mainly . The experience with thes e has been very good. Senator E agletox. Are flash flood wa rnings diss eminated in about the same manner as tornad o warnings, both by your own wire service and by co mmercial communication ? Dr. C ressmax. Exac tly , yes. Senator E agletox. I have one final question on the possibility of flooding thi s year. To day is Fe bruary 20. W ha t is the date af te r which we can stop w orr yin g about sprin g flooding? Dr. C ressmax. We are going to worry about it until the snow is gone. 1 'p in th e Dak otas. I th in k we have to wo rry ab out it until the first pa rt of Apri l. Se nator E agletox. I f we have average rainfall between now and the first p ar t of April, we will get by ? Dr. C ressmax. Yes. sir.

TORiXADO WA RXIXGS TO XEIGH BORIX G STATES

Se nator E agletox. Dr . Cressman. in connection with the Bootheel, you indicated th at the Louisville fore cast office has been instructed to imm ediately relay any wa rning s for th e ne igh bo rin g State s in o rder to 42 preclude the events of las t Novem ber from ha pp ening again. Have sim ila r instr uctio ns been giv en to other weath er service offices servic­ ing multis tate areas ? Dr. C hessman. Yes, sir. We have rei ter ate d them in the case of Lou isville. I t is one th ing to m ake instru ctions and a no ther to get them followed. Tha t is why we hav e asked th at the remote wa rning device be placed at the fore cas ter's desk, so the re is no possibility of overlook­ ing an event such as this.

DIS SE M IN ATIO N OF W ARNIN GS ON RADIO AN D TV

Se nator E agleton. Your lette r, in response to a previous inq uiry of mine, and your testimo ny sta te th at a brea kdo wn in pa rt of you r distr ibution centers pre vente d dissem ination of the tornad o wa rning to tho B ootheel area. Does th at include the tw o men who were in adjac ent rooms a nd did not hear the buzzer ? Dr. C ressman. T ha t is correc t. If t hat had worked, we would have been able to get th at warning to the Paducah TV station. Se na tor E agleton. Then the majo r breakd own occ urred when the Pa du ca h sta tio n, which is widely hea rd, did not get the wa rning and hence, d id no t broad cas t it? Dr. C ressman. Th at is correc t. Se na tor E agleton. D o y ou constan tly try to up da te your inform a­ tio n so as to know what com mercial rad io and TV sta tio ns are tuned in a certain area? Dr. C ressman. We have person nel who have a grea t deal of knowl­ edge in this area. We do try to keep up to da te on who is wa tch ing what. It is not easy. In some State s, for example, some of the citizens at ni gh t are listening to radio sta tio ns some ways away .

WAR NI NG S ON CABLE TV

Se na tor E agleton. W ha t ab ou t t he expansion of cab le television? I was in Jefferson City, Mo., recently and a TV wa tch er told me that most people in Jefferson City watch cable TV ra th er t ha n either the local TV sta tio n or the ad jace nt one in Columbia. If th at practic e is wid esp read, how do we dissem inate dis aster warning s to cable TV viewers ? Dr. C ressman. W e have one method which is in fairly wide use at the present time. We have a new device which is connected to the NO AA weather wa tch device. We will displa y the m on th e cable TV. Th ere have been a large numb er of these bou ght. I am not sure how man y. I belie ve it is in the or de r of 100. Se na tor E agleton. T herefore, if I am in Jefferson Ci ty and I ha p­ pen to be watch ing a St. Louis sta tio n via cable som eth ing will flash on the screen tellin g ab out the to rnado? Dr. C ressman. Th is is generally directed to a we ath er channel. If you do n’t tune to the we ath er cha nnel, you wo n't see t ha t. W e a re also experim entin g with cable tele vision in anothe r sense. We have run an experim ent where we have a device called a carou sel which relays maps a nd forec asts to the vario us TV stations. W e ha ve lea rne d a grea t deal fro m this and we have lea rne d where we can serve such a n area. 43 The cable TV systems are beginning very well. This is a good pos­ sibility for the future. As long as the cable T V is watched by the citizens. When they start to connect, then this offers a good oppor­ tunity to us. We are watching that very carefully.

FA TA LIT IE S IN CL AR KT ON

Senator E agleton. Regarding the two people that were killed in Clarkton, am I correct tha t they were victims of a direct hit? Dr. C hessman. Yes, sir. I wouldn’t want to see a more direct hit. I understand that not even any lumber from the house was even in the vicinity of the house. Senator E agleton. So even if that family had been watching a TV station which carried the warning and gone to the basement, the chances of their survival were meager. Dr. C ressman. I have a problem here. sir. in that I am not sure that house had a basement. The report I had seen from Mr. Thornton, who is head of Civil Defense, said the area was stripped down to the foundation of the house. T don’t know if this means there was a base­ ment. or not. Senator E agleton. T should know but I don’t. Assuming it had a basement, if they had gotten to it, would they have had a chance to survive ? Dr. Cressman. That is problematic. I f the debris was removed, they might have had a better chance than if rhe debris had fallen in. A regular tornado cellar, of course, would be the only wav you could guarantee survival in a situation like that. This is generally a small underground structure that is lined or some other strong structure separate from the house so it wouldn’t he subject to debris from the house. T don’t think you could give those poor people much chance.

W ARNIN G D IS SEM IN A TIO N IN KANSA S CIT Y TORN AD O BELT

Senator E agleton. Over the past several years our office received some complaints about the adequacy of warning dissemination in the Kansas City tornado belt. I think you are aware of some of those complaints. Has anything been done to correct those deficiencies? Dr. C ressman. We have placed an order now for the Nebraska weather wire system, which should help. One problem we had in Kansas was residents of Kansas listening to stations in Nebraska. We don’t have, as yet. in Nebraska a weather wire system. They listen to stations in Nebraska and there is no way for those stations to get word out. Senator E agleton. I s a weather wire for Nebraska on one of your priority lists for fiscal 1974. or fiscal 1975 ? Dr. Cressman. I think it is due this year, fiscal 1974. Senator E agleton. You say Nebraska is? Dr. C ressman. It is due this year, and I believe the order has al­ ready been placed. I am not positive of th at, but it should be bv now. 44

TORNADO WAR NING IN SALIN A, KA NS. That particular tornado situation was one in which the warnings were extremely effective in Kansas, and we are convinced that a large number of lives were saved by the warning service there. This was a warning of tornadoes that struck Salina and other nearby towns. This was a situation where we got some complaints that there was no warn­ ing of the Nebraska stations. Senator K agleton. Maybe you could point out on the map where Salina. Kans., is. Is it north of Topeka ? Dr. C ressman. It is west of Topeka, approximately 90-100 miles. Senator K agleton. S o the warning was adequate there for those who listen to Kansas broadcasts but some were listening to Nebraska stations and hence didn’t receive it. Dr. Chessman. Right.

REMOVE ALERTIN G DEVICES

Senator K agleton. ITow many remote alerting devices similar to those, to lx>i installed in Louisville will go nationwide? Dr. C hessman. I can't give an exact number. I would judge it is approximately 40 to 45. Senator K agleton. Can you give me a rough estimate o f cost? Dr. C hessman. T believe T had this in the testimony. T believe it was $15,000. Senator K agleton. Each? Dr. Chessman. No. sir. T mentioned we were presuming about $300 to install a warning message alerting device.

NWS EX TE NS ION TO ALL STATES

Senator K agleton. Dr. Townsend, since the electronics media is the primary means of informing the public of impending national disas­ ters, why isn't NWS service in each radio and TV station in the country ? Dr. T ownsend. Well. sir. the system we are using now is available when we have the weather wire in the State. To provide connections for all of the TV and radio stations in that State, they have to share some of the expense. Senator K agleton. A s I understand it. if a TV or radio station requests the weather wire service, they must assume the cost of the equipment and its operating cost. Dr. Townsend. That is correct. Senator K agleton. I think in your testimony you may have men­ tioned how many stations currently subscribe to the service. Did you? Dr. T ownsend. 1 don't believe I did mention that number: no, sir. We can provide that for the record, sir. [The information follows:] 45

NOAA W eathe r Wire S erv ic e L is t of N ati o n al W ea ther S e rv ic e and No n-Weathe r S e rv ic e Dr ops by S ta te As of 1/3 0/7 4 W ea ther S erv ic e No n-Weather Drop 8 S erv ic e Dr op s T o ta l Drops

Alab am a...... 5 68 73 A la sk a...... • • • • • • • • • A riz o n a...... • • • • • • • • • A rk ansa s...... 4 60 64 C a lif o r n ia ...... • • • • • • • • • C olo ra do...... 6 22 28 C o n n e c ti c u t...... • • • • • • • • • D ela w are ...... 1 1 2 ♦ F lo ri d a 14 150 164 G eo rg ia ...... 9 1»3 52 H aw ai i...... • • • ♦Id aho...... 7 16 23 I l l i n o i s ...... 7 118 125 In d ia n a ...... 5 85 90 Iowa...... 4 61 65 K ansa s...... 6 95 101 K en tu ck y...... 3 42 45 L o u is ia n a ...... 7 78 85 M ai ne ...... • • • ♦M ar yl an d...... 4 3 7 M a ssa c h u se tt s...... * • • • . . . M ic hig an...... 11 110 121 M in neso ta ...... • • • • • • • • • M is s is s ip p i...... 4 75 79 M is s o u ri...... 6 93 99 M on tana ...... N ebra sk a...... Nev ad a...... New H am psh ire...... • • • • • • • • • New J e r s e y ...... 4 15 19 New M ex ic o...... New Y or k...... 1 1 Nor th C a ro li n a ...... 6 40 4*6 Nor th D akota ...... • • • O hi o...... 9 - 82 91 Ok lah om a...... 3 90 93 Ore go n...... 10 34 44 P e n n sy lv a n ia ...... 8 58 66 Rhode I s la n d ...... • • • So uth C a ro li n a ...... 4 88 92 So uth D akota ...... T en n ess ee...... 8 54 62 T ex as...... 24 334 358 U ta h...... • • • Vermon t...... ♦ V ir g in ia ...... 5 11 16 W as hin gt on...... • • • • • • • • • ♦West V ir g in ia ...... 5 30 35 ♦W is co nsi n...... 5 55 60 Wyoming...... 4 16 20 199 2, 02 7 2, 22 6 * P a r tia l Cov erage 46

BROADCAST STATION S RECEIVING FORECAST SERVICES

Se na tor E ageeton. B ut it would pro bab ly be a small percentage of the. total number o f s tat ion s in the co untry, w ouldn 't it ? Dr. T ownsend. Of those States th at have a weath er wire service it is a reason ably good percen tage. It w ouldn ’t be a small percenta ge. Se na tor E ageeton. But is NO A A, as a matter of national public policy in ord er to more effectively warn people, consider ing under­ ta ki ng th e total cost o f dis semi natin g disaste r warning in for ma tio n to every st ation in the co untry ? Dr. T ownsend. Yes, sir. We have considered it and rejected that. We have considered it at least twice since T have been with NOAA and its predecessor. Th is is about 6 years. There are two prob lems. One is the very large cost. Two, th ere is a question of red undancy in a city like Washin gto n where you have a grea t numb er o f r adio statio ns. The question is do you need to p ut it in all of them , even the v ery small ones. It is a policy decision, sir , and was felt, that as par t of the respon­ sib ility th at any public com municatio ns media has, th at they ought to conside r, very strongly , su pp ortin g some share of t his cost. As you know, when the FC C issues a sta tio n license, it is issued in the public inte rest and the sta tio n is to pro vid e public service. W ar n­ ing service is a brow nie po int, if you will excuse the expression, for anv station licensed.

FISC A I, YEAR 1 9 75 BIT)GET REQUEST

Se na tor E ageeton. In vo ur statement, Dr. Tow nsend, you indicated that disaste r wa rning and dissem ination systems h ave been given the hig hest pr iority in recent Presiden tia l budgets ; vet, when you look at the de tails of fiscal ye ar 1975 you find th at the fu nd ing an d m anpowe r in the follow ing 2 years rem ain s the same, between 1974 a nd the new bud get of 1975. The two th at rem ain the sam e: hurrican e warning and dissem ina­ tion. 44 positions. $1.1 million: tornado and severe storm warnin gs, 31 positions. $500,000. Are. we really lieefing up our system of disse mi natin g wa rning in­ forma tion if the fund ing level fo r those two a reas rem ain constant ? Dr. T ownsend. We will have to do some che cking on which items you have in mind, I believe t he tw o you described are probably the re­ search efforts in these are as and t hey are n ot b eing augmented in e ith er fiscal year. On the oth er hand, as we pointed out. we have made a very sizable investment in local use ra da rs, in network rada rs, in the weather wire serv ice itself which we discussed, and in our rem oting devices which remote a ra da r scope pictu re to a s tation th at doesn't have rad ar. We have made sizable investments in computers. We have two bran d new IB M 360-195's which were just installed. Se na tor E ageeton. Doctor, let's pass this questio n for a moment. Maylx* your budget man can ans wer it. It is my inf orma tion thes e are two line items in the hurricane and tornad o wa rning services pa rt of you r bu dg et: hu rri cane wa rning pr ep aration and dissem ina tion, 44 positions. $1.1 million : torn ado and severe storm wa rnings pr ep aration. 31 positions. $500,000. 47

Perhaps he could flip through and t ry to find the answer so we may continue. Dr. T ownsend . It sounds as if you have the two national centers here. Senator E agleton. W ha t I am saying is I don't think they are re­ search items. I)r. T ownsend. OK, he does have it.

NATIONAL SEVERE STORM AND HU RR ICAN E CEN TERS Yes, it looks like these numbers — and we will check it for the record— are the start’s at the two principal specialty centers. As Dr. Cressm an described, the central hub of all the fore casting activities is in Su itlan d. There are two specialty offices in this system : One in Kansas City — the National Severe Storm Forecast Cen ter; they are responsible for the entire country ; the other is in Miami, Fla ., the National Hurricane Center — they have the respo nsibility for the hurricane forecasting for all over the country, at least until the storm begins to move up the coast. Then the responsibility for the minute-to-minute forecast is passed along the system. We have set up specialty centers because o f the particular problems with these severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hurricanes. Senator E agleton. I won't belabor the point. I still have some diffi­ culty if the 1975 budget is identical to 1974 for hurricane dissemina­ tion. When one considers inflation, it doesn't seem to me we have en­ hanced the service much.

COST INCREA SES IN BUDGET REQUEST

Dr. T ownsend. Th is budget does consider inflation. There are ad­ justments to base that take care of the sala ry increases and the items that we can identifv as hav ing increased, such as the cost, of tele­ communications and thin gs of this nature. Those are taken care of elsewhere in the budget. There is no attrition. That is correct. We do not have augmentation of either Miami or Kan sas City in either one of these budgets. We have felt that the more important parts of this system to consider were these tilings we have been discussing. Fo r example, dissemination is under public weather. Senator E agleton. Dr. Townsend, you indicated in vour prepared statement that the disaster warning, dissemination, and community preparedness function is to be increased by $23.5 million in the fiscal year 1975 budget. However. I understand that warning dissemina­ tion. the admitted weak link in the system we discussed earlier, will be increased by only $2 million. Why isn't this entire area get tin g a bit more emphasis with in the NOA A budget ? Dr. T ownsend. Sir. we do feel we are giving this area a very high prior ity and emphasis. In all of these systems there is a rate at which you can install. It takes engineering work. It takes planning work. In the case of weather wire it takes a good deal of work with the local telephone companies, the people that provide the telecommunica­ tions with the radio stations, and with the T V stations. We simply do 48 not have th e man pow er to p ut all of these pro gra ms in a t t he same time throug ho ut th e entire country. W ha t we have done is to tr y to develop cri ter ia to deal with the are as most exposed first. By most exposed T mean subject to severe weath er o f any typ e and where th ere is a significant population density and economic investment. We rank areas in te rms o f t hese c riteria and then we have pu t in the systems as fa st as we are able to do it in tech nically soun d fashion and within the constraints th at any Federal budget is lim ited to. You do have to have priority. But believe me, this a rea is a very high priority are a with us.

FISC AL YEAR 1973 FU ND S IMP OUNDED BY OMB

Se nator E agleton. In the pas t 5 yea rs have any d isa ste r wa rning or dissem ination fun ds been im pounded bv OM B ? I)r. T ownsend. Yes. sir. We had a situation a little ove r a year ago where money that was ap prop ria ted in fiscal ye ar 1973 was impounded. Se na tor E agleton. H ow much was th at ? Dr. T ownsend. Abo ut $10 millio n, sir. It was $10,072,000 t hat was impou nde d in the various categories th at go to make up this general are a of disaste r prevention w arning and so for th. Se na tor E agleton. So in fiscal year 1973 $10 million of wa rning money—we will call it—was imp oun ded out of the tot al agg reg ate amoun t? Dr. T ownsend. The increase th at year was abou t $26 million, sir, $26,679,000, and about $10 million was im pounded. Se na tor E agleton. Have any funds been impounded in '74? Dr. T ownsend. No, sir.

IMPOUN DED F I NDS AVAILABLE IN FISCAL YEAR 19 7 4 I sho uld make one other point clear. In essence, we g ot th at money back. If you will notice th e detai ls of our 1975 budget you will see th at the re was abo ut $30 million carried over from fiscal ye ar 1973 into fiscal ye ar 1974. So th at I th in k you could sum it up by say ing that some program s took about a yea r's delay. Se na tor E agleton. Gentle men, I want to than k you fo r your testi ­ mony. You have been fran k and can did with the subcomm ittee both in thi s p res entation and in ea rli er interv iew s with us. I believe both N OAA and th e National Weather Service do an excel­ lent job. I recognize th at no warning system, however sop histica ted, can ever eliminate the loss of lives and injuries. We must share in ma kin g the system com pletely opera tional rapidly eno ugh to preven t unn ecessary loss of lives, unnecessary injur ies and unn ecessary pr op ­ erty dam age. 49

Therefore, the subcommittee very much appreciates your testimony. I am encouraged, I might say. with Dr. Chessman's testimony that the Hood situation along the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers today, Feb­ ruary 20, is considerably improved over what it was a month ago. I still presume, though, Doctor, we have to be cautious since we can predict rainfall more than 4 to 5 days in advance. We can't be over­ confident, can we ? Dr. Chessman. That is correct.

CONCLU SI ON OF HEARIN G

Senator E agleton. Thank you very much, gentlemen. That will conclude this morning's hearing. [Whereupon, at 11:25 a.m., Wednesday, February 20, the subcom­ mittee hearing was concluded.]

I N D E X

Page Bootlieel are a—tornado watch, warnings issued to------32, 34 Area map o n ______33 Clarkton, fatalities in______43 Damage and loss of life in______35 Budget re qu es ts ______36, 46 Cres.sman, Dr. George P., sta tem ent______25 Letter ______9 “Daily Dunklin Democrat,” the, article from------6 Eagleton, Hon. Thomas F., U.S. Senator from Missouri, opening sta tem ent. 1 Flash flood warning program : Alarm system for______41 Lower Missouri and cen tral and lower Mississippi floods------38 Middle Mississippi floods______38 River levels, causes of variations in______39 System of______40 Weather forecasting, accuracy and long-range______39 Impounded funds______48 Inter nal RAREP and warning coordination system______25 C h art ______27 Map on______11 Inter nal and external warning systems------25 Improvements in______30 National warning system (NAWAS)------30 C h art ______31 National Weather Serv ice: Drops, cha rt on______45 States, extension to______44 Natural disaster warning and preparedness, functions of------12, 24 Community program ______30 Disse mina tion______14 Breakdown of procedures in ______35 Federal plan for ______14 Geostationary operation al environmental satellite system (GO ES)— 12 NOAA budget amounts for______15 Warning pre paration ______13 Ra dar report and warning coordination tele typewrite r network (RAWARC) ______26 C h art ______28 Circuit relay of messages______34 Severe storm, modification of______25 Symington, lion. Stuart, U.S. Senator from Missouri, prep ared s tatement— 3 Letter from______8 Tornado warning syste m: Cable TV______42 Kansas City tornado belt, effect in------43 Neighboring State s______41 Radio and TV______42 Townsend, Dr. John W., J r., prepared statem ent______16 VHF/FM transmissions______24 Weathe r Wire Service (W WS)______26 Chart ______29 States included in______37 (I) O