Farm Labor & Mexican Produce Philip Martin: [email protected]

Asparagus , Cucumbers.. Greon Garlic , Grgen Onions., Herbs , Halr1oom Tomatoee, Rad Grape Tomatoes, Snow Peas. strawbGrr!Gs , &.mmGr Squash , Tomatoes

Asparagus.. Basil , 81111Plll)pers-Greon , Rc>d, Yellow and OrengG , Brussels Sprouts , ChGny TomatDGs, Cucl.rnbers , Englsh Cucumbers.. Eggplant , G,-n BGans, GrapGfrult, •• _ . Hlllnoom TomatoGs , Hot PGppGrB, Melons , Minl Peppers , - - Rad Grape Toma!DGs, Roma TomatoGs , Sugar Snap Peas. Tomatoes. Tomatiloa. Sl.nY'nclr Squash , Valencia Oranges , Wlntar Squash , Zucchini

B1111Pvppeni- Green, Rad. Yellow and BAJA Orange , Cucumbers , Eggplant. CALIFORNIA English CUCUTlbers, Mini Pvppera , SUR , Rad Grape Tomatoes , Roma Tomatoes . , Sum!Ta' Sq.ash, Tomatoee , Zucchini

Asparagus . Bell Peppers- Green , Red and Yellow. Cucl.rnbers , Limes Eggplant. Green Beans, Green Gano , Green Onions. Herbs , Hertoom Tomatogs , Mini Peppers . Blackberries, Red Cherry Tomatoes , Cucumbers , •• JALISCO Red Grape Tomatoes . Raspberries ,' ·· · Roma Tomatoes , Snow strawberries Peas. strawberries , Sum~ Squash, Tomatoes

Blackberries , Hass Avocados , Raspberries , strawberries Herbs Tommy Atkns Mangos Highlights • Half of US fresh fruit; ¼ of fresh vegetables, are imported. : half of fruit and ¾ of vegetables • LA Times December 2014 & media reports: exporters exploit workers, use forced & child labor • CIESAS-Migration Dialogue-Wilson – Top-down statistical data to confirm or refute these bottom-up reports – Methodology: interview 300 workers per commodity in proportion to size of farm. If 10 largest farms produce half of tomatoes in Sinaloa, 150 worker interviews on 10 farms – Interpret data: focus groups with stakeholders – Timeline: interviews & focus groups in Winter 2019, report with recommendations in Fall 2019 NAFTA: Comparative advantage & econ of scale. US trade deficit trade balancewith: 1 Mexico $20 billion

1994 Nafta goes into effect . 0 •

. -20 • --- ·--.• •. • • • • • • -40 •

-60 • .• . • • .• -80 .- ,- ,- , ,- ,- ,- ,- ,- ,- , '10 1 , - , I ',16 I1990 ' I I 12000 I United Stat ,es-Mexico agricultural trade , 1990-2015

Billion U.S. d'olla s 25 Completionof NAFTA's NAFTA'sinitial transhionto intraregional impementa1ion fee trade 20

5

U.S.agricuttural exports, to Me ico 0

5

U.S.A riculturalim ort fromMexico

0 1'9 0 1 92 19 1 · 6 19 ,s 2000 2002 2004 .200 2008 2010 20112 2014 C I n y r Big 3 Mex X: Tomatoes, Avocados, Berries = half $11 billion F&V imports from Mexico

ore ha1n two - hirds of US . agricultural ! imports from Mexico con 1i ted of vege able ·fruit, or eer in 2016

0 her gr -ins and feeds 2% Other Peppers Biscuits and wafers agricul tural 5% 3% produc s 0th r ug r nd 9% relatedproducts 3% Canes gar 3% , er nim Is and nim I roducts 4% B f and beef varley me ts 5% Othe ver g s, e cludln tr i Juice % Big 3 US ag exports to Mexico Corn, grain, meat

Grains oilseeds meat and related products made up about three-fourths of U.S. agricult ural exports to exlco in 2016

Beef and beef Por'kand por'k variety m ats 6% Othe sug r nd related products Other agricultural 2% products HFCS 15% 2% Fruit. vegetables, and preparations, including juice 7% Other oilseeds and related products 9%

Com, DOGS, and cracked com 17% US fruit & vegetable imports increased, led by avocados & tomatoes (blue) Red fruit = raspberries & blackberries; red veg = peppers

I. Fruit Imports from Mexico Figure 2.Vegetable Imports from Mexico

($millions) ($millions) 2,000 2,000

1,500 1,500

1,000 1,000

500 500

0 0 _(','\ _C\Cb_(',o, ~() ~'\- ~"\t ~"> ~ ~ . ~) ~ ~ ~

Fruits and Vegetables Shipped to U.S. Distribution Centers

~ April r- September ~

1998

11million metric tons 21million metrictons 30%imported (outer ring) Largedelivery from Central America to Miam~Fla. Smalldelivery from Canada to Detroit,Mich. • 2005

3.6million metric tons 27 millionmetric tons

2012

3J millionmetric tons 12 millionmetric tons

Grcles:Areas depict percent of tonnage;local farm sales not induded. Maps:Each dot representstwo shipmentsfrom a regionoutside the U.S. (nodots for domestic shipments). Dot size reflects shipment size.

Domestic Canada Europe Middle East Asia Padfic Africa SouthAmerica Central America Mexico Mexico: major comparative advantage is climate: Export when US is NOT producing Mexico exporting tomatoes all months of the year Mexican protected culture: higher yields, better quality, & extended growing season Mexico: 25% of global tomato exports in 2016 .,, .,

.; ., .,

J .,

~ z ., ., $50i4 ✓ ,, mRRE0s 0 : ., C!:

COUNTRY PERCENTOF TOTAL VALUE OF TOMATO EXPORTS EXPORTS

1. MEXICO $2.1 BILLION 2. NETHERLANDS 19.0% $1 .6 billion 3. SPAIN 12.6% $1. 1 billion 4.MOROCCO 6.1% $509.2 million 5. CANADA 4.4% $373. 1 million 1- 6. FRANCE 4.2% $355.1 million $5------ 4 CORREOS 0 ~ 7. 4.2% $352.0 million ------C!: 8. BELGIUM 3.4% $287.9 million 9.JORDAN 3.0% $255.5 million 10. TURKEY 2.9°/a $239.9 million 11. ITALY 2.3% $191.4 million 12. CHINA 2.0% $170.3 million 13. AZERBAIJAN 1.1% $92. 1 million 14. INDIA 0.9°/o $76. 1 million 15.BELARUS 0.8% $66.4 million $501------4 . CORREOS 0 : . ------C!: Most Mexican imports complement US production: peak in winter months

3. Monthly Selected Fruit Imports Figure 4. Monthly Vegetable Imports from Mexico, 20 16 from Mexico, 20 16

($millions) ($millions) 250 300

200

150

100

50

.fr ,X;«>~ 51.~ ~ .;::,~ .;::,'-'..:) 0 ~ 6 0~ ~(J .fr ~<¢ ~ 51.~ ~ .;::,~ .;::,'-'..:) 0 ~ 6 0~ ~(J ) ' ~ ~ ~ 'i 'i ~ c., 0 ~ <) ) «~ ~~ ~ ~~ c.,o <) ~ Avocados (80440) ~ Tomatoes (HS 70200) ....._ Raspberries, blackberries (HS 80120) ....._ Peppers (HS70960) -.a- Strawberries (HS 81010) -.- cucumbe rs (HS 70700) ...... ,._ Lemons, limes (HS 80550) ~ Pumpkins, squash (HS 70993) --..- cranberr ies, blueberries (HS 81040) ~ Cabbage, kale (HS 70490) ~ Watermelons (HS 80711) ~ Onions, shallots (HS 70310) ~ Canateloupe, melon (HS80719) ~ Beans (HS 70820) -- ora nges, fresh (HS80510) - Asparagus (HS 70920) US ag imports from Mexico: vegetables (red) & fruits (green) = half; beer = purple

$,mtlllio }i All Other 2SrQOQ Coffee

 Fruit Juices 20rQOQ Cocoa and Produc s

1SrQOQ Nuts, Prepa tions Grains, Feeds

10rQOQ Sugar and Products

Animals and Products 5,000 Beverages (exc. Juice)

 Frui sand Products 0 Share of imports in US consumption = 50% or more in some commodities

Table I. Imports as a Share of Total Supplies, 2007-2016 (Select Years) 2007 2010 2013 2016 (Import percentage) All fresh fruit, excluding bananas 32 32 36 38 Avocados , fresh 65 73 83 86 Blueberries, fresh 44 49 52 57 Raspberries, fresh 48 51 58 48 Strawberries , fresh 8 9 13 14 Oranges, fresh 11 8 9 12 All fresh vegetab les 20 24 27 31 Asparagus, fresh 78 89 90 96 Broccoli, fresh 11 15 17 19 Cucumbers, fresh 52 62 69 74 Bell peppers, total 48 53 59 60 Tomatoes, fresh 41 53 53 57 NAFTA: Comparative advantage at work. Mexican share of N American auto & light truck production = 17% in 2004, 20% in 2017, projected 25% in 2020

PRODUCTIONPOPUIARITY CONTEST

70~ •••• ~---....---....-----,,-...--..---....------~ ------,-----,

•••••••••• 10 - . - 1 09.4% 1woN · · 14.1% ~1u10N, 2CXM2005 2006 N.>7 100IS 20m • 2010 2011 1012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mexican autos & parts: 750,000 workers earn $50/day to produce 3.5 million vehicles (2016); 80% exported, mostly to US. Autos = 25% of FDI in Mexico and 20% of Mexican manufacturing

en Mexico de Plantas de Vehfculos Ligeros

PLANT A TIJUANA I ® ···:P LANTA I eeli ERMOSILLO ee@I @ I PLANTA MOTORES 1PLANTA : PLANTA PLANTA ~AMOS ARIZPE 1 RAMOS ARIZPE 1SAL TILLO 1 SALTILLO 2013 I I I I r ------~

PLANTA ~I ~I PLANTA I 1 PLANT A PUEBLA AGUASCALIENTES 1 MORELOS 1------I : I

- - - , PLANTA _:L! A: T~ ____ _ 0 PLANTA AGUASCALI ENTES 2013 '©

,------I I I C®) PLANT A TOLUCA PLANTA PLANT A DE PLANTA TOLUCA PLANTA CUATITLAN CELAYA 2014 PLANT A SILAO MOTORES 2013 NAFTA Superhighway: I-35 links northern Mexico, US Midwest, & Ontario

Calgary Winniptg

Ottawa Port Huron Billings Minntapolis t Poul /Htroit Windsor hicogo Dovtnport Denver /ndionopol,s Wichita Oklahoma City Mtmphis

Inland Ports Saltillo lnasco North America's SuporConidor Coalition, Inc. NAFTA Superhighway:American Motor Vehicle I-35 Assembly links northernin 2016 Mexico, US Midwest, & Ontario Locationsand numberof units assembledin thousands Lessthan 500 500-1,000 More than  1,000

Canada I Ontario 1,358 CrANADA

United States Michigan 1,145 Ohio _ 1,418 Indiana _ 1,355 \ _ 1,258 Alabama 11,053 862 - 752 Illinois - 667 603 Mississippi Gallfomla S. Carolina 411 Georgia 372 Kansas 179 California 83 Baja California Mexico Guanajuato ·• 785 Aguascalientes- 551 Coahuila 415 Puebla 415 Sonora 311 Morelos 294 Mexico 202 SanLuis Potosi 186 Nuevole6n 105 BajaCalifornia 97 Jalisco 58 Mexico: #7 in global auto production, #6 by 2020 Mexican auto success driven by 44 FTAs & welcome FDI US unions: raise wages in Mexico auto & parts plants OR 50% US content

obal Top 10 Product· on Co ntr· es

2010 2014 2015 2020 1 China China China China 2 Japan United States United States United States 3 United States Japan Japan Japan 4 Germany Germany Germ1any India 5 South Korea South Korea India Germany 6 lndiia India South Korea ex A 7 Brazil A ICO Brazil 8 Spain BrazH Brazill South Korea 9 0 A Thailand Spain Thailand 10 France Canada Thailand Spain Auto worker housing in Saltillo, Detroit of Mexico Mexican minimum wage = 88 pesos/day or $5. Autos = $2/hour NAFTA is th e worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere , but certainly ever signed in this country.

- D~nalc!Twmp -

AZ a u OTES

Donald J. Trump O @realDon ... · 21m We are in the NAFTA (worst trade deal ever made) renegotiation process with Mexico & Canada.Both being very difficult,may have to terminate?

() 5,328 t12,784 Trump: levy 20% tax on imports to pay for border wall?

Eating Healthy May Soon Become More Expensive U.S. imports of fruit and vegetables in 2015 by supplier country

$2.92b

• I Chile I. ----• I $1.95b

EU-28 - o------$1.63b Chi n a - --- $1.40b Peru I $1.11 b --- President Trump suggested ' $0.74b introducing a 20% import tax on all Mexican goods to fund Guatemala $0.47b construction of the border wall. $0.41b 0 Brazil $0.37b

All others e I I $2.1b @©0 @StatistaCharts Sources: CRS, U.S. International Trade Commission statista§ Mexico: $60 billion trade surplus with US in 2016, including a $7 billion ag surplus •

Mexico'sImports of grainsand dairy products,2016 Corn Dairy Sorghum Barley 13.3 564.2 423.8 116 Imports from U.S. mllllon thousand thousand thousand metric tons metric tons metric tons metr ic tons

U.S. share of total imports • • NAFTA speeded changes underway in Mexico: fewer & larger farmers

~-,..,.... pooo)  :111--tQ.OOO -- OQ,OOl')OQ,000 ._ JOCI.OOJ•a,Q,OIIO... CAU

r--~n,d- ... -~Joilloco,

2---..1•~~-i.--.and · ::r=:::-:.-~:: u.1 ...... ""°'.,.....,.,..,_ =-~=~._....,.....,, ... -..- ,,,....,.,-.,lolio,\....,._..,..::...o:::i..=: «~~-..-.-- =· NAFTA: Freer trade in corn: Iowa & Mexican corn farmers

Iowa produced twice as much corn as Mexico in the early 1990s, and at half of the price. Exports of US corn to Mexico, & Mexico- US migration, rose together Mexico-US Migration Hump: 1995-2007 Same policies that reduce migration in long run increase migration in short run

Migration / 2000 Status Quo A Pattern

(/) +-' C ro Migration :i... NAFTA C C) Avoided ~ 1994 It- r· 0 :i... a, .c E z::::J

9'0 9,"> 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Migration' ' Pattern with Year of Economic Restructuring Economic Restructuring

Figure 3: NAFTA and Mexico-U.S. Migration NAFTA took effect 1994; CAFTA-DR in 2006

10.000.000 --~-- -1-r------MEXJCANIMMIGRA TS I UNI ED ST~ ES SINCE1990 8.000.000

6.00CtOOO __ ___,___ ~------

4.000.000 1990 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

IMMIGRANTSIN UNITEDSTATES FROM NORTHERNTRIANG E COUNTRIES SINCE1990

1,500,000 ---1,----t------EI Salvador

1,200,000

Guatemala

300,000

0 ------'-- 1990 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Trump: wall on Mexico-US border LA Times: bottom-up reports on export farms How typical is what LA Times found? LA Times: focus on poor on-farm housing Focus on indigenous migrants

fire) M xico's · dig nous g ons a b s d o ort tar s in the st and o st o p o a d process fr i s a d egetab Ies h as ca r g io is a p source o agr"c I ura I bo

0

300 Contractors recruit & transport workers Our project: Reliable top-down data • 1. Production & supply chain analysis of tomatoes, bell peppers, cucumbers, berries, & avocados • 2. Interview 300 farm workers in each of nine sites (Sinaloa, the Bajio, Jalisco, Michoacán), total of 2,700 interviews • 3. Conduct focus groups in 9 areas to understand the data & context • Methodology: interview workers in proportion to size of production & employment in each commodity We need stakeholder cooperation • 1. Need production and employment shares by commodity and state to sample workers by size of farm • 2. Need employer cooperation to facilitate interviews (we will do some interviews off farm to ensure no bias) • 3. Look forward to stakeholder participation in focus groups • 4. Welcome data, studies and suggestions – Philip Martin: [email protected] – Agustin Escobar: [email protected]

Americans eating more fresh fruits and vegetables

Per cap i·ta U.S. fruit and vegetabl 1 e availa bi lity , 1970-2005

200 f u

20 Fresh fruits up 30%; fresh vegetables 20%; cheese up 200%

1. p r cap1 a food ava· a ·uY P rccnt cha g , 1 70-2

All red meat -27 % Poultr 13 °/4 - -20 °/c Eggs ll d iry products -• 7% Fluid milk -27 °/c Che sc - 189°/4 All fr it & v gctablc - 13% ll r it  7% fresh fruit 29 °/4 Proc ss d tr it -8% ll veg - 16 3/c ·resh vc - 21 % Processed veg 123/c Fats & oils - 50 % Su rs & sw ctn rs 10% Corn -based S\ tncr - 29 1% - 0% 0% 0% 1 0% 5 % 2003/c 2 0% 3 Q0/4 35 % Demand up for very labor intensive crops