El Salvador's Democratic Transition Ten Years After
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W EL SALVADOR’S DEMOCRATIC oodrow Wilson Center Reports on the Americas • #6 TRANSITION TEN YEARS AFTER THE PEACE ACCORD edited by Cynthia J. Arnson Ricardo Guillermo Castaneda Rubén Zamora José Miguel Cruz Terry Karl Sandra Barraza William Pleitéz José Roberto López-Cálix Latin American Program EL SALVADOR’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION TEN YEARS AFTER THE PEACE ACCORD Edited by Cynthia J. Arnson Ricardo Guillermo Castaneda Rubén Zamora José Miguel Cruz Terry Karl Sandra Barraza William Pleitéz José Roberto López-Cálix Latin American Program EL SALVADOR’S DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION TEN YEARS AFTER THE PEACE ACCORD Edited by Cynthia J. Arnson Ricardo Guillermo Castaneda Rubén Zamora José Miguel Cruz Terry Karl Sandra Barraza William Pleitéz José Roberto López-Cálix ©2003 Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, D.C. www.wilsoncenter.org Cover Photograph: “Mural Commemorating Ceasefire in El Salvador” © Kevin Fleming/CORBIS WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS LEE H. HAMILTON, DIRECTOR BOARD OF TRUSTEES Joseph B. Gildenhorn, Chair; David A. Metzner, Vice Chair. Public Members: James H. Billington, Librarian of Congress; John W. Carlin, Archivist of the United States; Bruce Cole, Chair, National Endowment for the Humanities; Roderick R. Paige, Secretary, U.S. Department of Education; Colin L. Powell, Secretary, U.S. Department of State; Lawrence M. Small, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution; Tommy G. Thompson, Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Private Citizen Members: Joseph A. Cari, Jr., Carol Cartwright, Donald E. Garcia, Bruce S. Gelb, Daniel L. 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Small, Thomas F. Stephenson, Norma Kline Tiefel, Mark C. Treanor, Anthony G. Viscogliosi, Christine M. Warnke, Ruth Westheimer, Pete Wilson, Deborah Wince-Smith, Herbert S. Winokur, Jr., Paul Martin Wolff, Joseph Zappala, Nancy M. Zirkin, Richard S. Ziman ABOUT THE CENTER The Center is the living memorial of the United States of America to the nation’s twenty-eighth presi- dent, Woodrow Wilson. Congress established the Woodrow Wilson Center in 1968 as an international institute for advanced study, “symbolizing and strengthening the fruitful relationship between the world of learning and the world of public affairs.” The Center opened in 1970 under its own board of trustees. In all its activities the Woodrow Wilson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, supported financially by annual appropriations from Congress, and by the contributions of foundations, corpora- tions, and individuals. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or organizations that provide financial support to the Center. | iv | TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION vii Cynthia J. Arnson Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars PART I. THE NATURE OF THE POLITICAL TRANSITION: ADVANCES AND SETBACKS IN DEMOCRATIC CONSOLIDATION Ricardo Guillermo Castaneda 1 Consejo Empresarial Salvadoreño para el Desarrollo Sostenible Rubén Zamora 5 political leader and former Chair, Political Science Department,University of El Salvador José Miguel Cruz 13 Universidad Centroamericana José Simeón Cañas, Instituto Universitario de Opinión Pública (IUDOP) Commentator,Terry Karl 39 Stanford University Panel Discussion 47 PART II. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SALVADORAN ECONOMY: ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL POLICY Sandra Barraza 57 Comisión Nacional de Desarrollo | v | William Pleitéz 65 United Nations Development Program, San Salvador Commentator, José Roberto López-Cálix 75 The World Bank Panel Discussion 79 APPENDIX A Biographies of Participants 87 APPENDIX B Publications of the Project on Comparative Peace Processes 91 | vi | INTRODUCTION n January 16, 1992, El Salvador’s government and guerrillas of the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) O signed a sweeping and historic peace agreement that put an end to a brutal twelve-year conflict. Almost exactly ten years later to the day, on January 20, 2002, the Latin American Program held a confer- ence to evaluate in political and economic terms the years since the sign- ing of the accord. The goal of the conference was less to analyze the degree of implementation of key provisions of the accord—although many participants made reference to its principal accomplishments and deficiencies—as much as to assess the nature of the democratic transition and related socio-economic developments in the post-war era. Virtually all participants agreed on the central and enduring achieve- ments of the Salvadoran peace agreement: the demilitarization of politics and an end to the left’s political exclusion; reform of the armed forces and its separation from the political life of the country; improved respect for human rights; enhanced press freedoms and freedom of speech; the successful holding of presidential, legislative, and municipal elections and improved representation at the local level; and a process, albeit far from complete, of modernization and reform of key state institutions. In addi- tion, in the post-accord era, the economy has grown at a rate faster than the average of the rest of Latin America, inflation and levels of income poverty have fallen, educational opportunities have expanded, the ratio of debt service to exports remains low, and exports have risen, especially in the maquila sector. Despite progress in these areas, panelists also underscored persistent dif- ficulties and challenges, many of them rooted in the nature of El Salvador’s multiple and simultaneous transitions. Salvadoran society remains polarized and stratified, characterized by wide gaps between rich and poor, between urban and rural populations, and between the Greater San Salvador area and the rest of the country. Emigration, which provides an economic and population safety valve and contributes to the economy through massive remittances, also deprives El Salvador of professionals, members of the middle class, and campesinos who count among society’s most talented | vii | Introduction entrepreneurs.1 Moreover, the peace accord’s relative inattention to socio- economic issues, rooted in the dynamic of the peace negotiations and rel- ative strengths and possibilities of the negotiating parties, left important root causes of the war unaddressed. While recognizing the contribution of the accords to El Salvador’s political evolution, participants in the first panel highlighted issues that create uncertainty about the country’s political future. Ricardo Castaneda, for example, cited the absence of trust in government institutions and argued that Salvadorans living abroad, who contribute so much to the national economy, should also be able to vote via absentee ballot. In emphasizing the numerous ways that aspects of El Salvador’s transition were over-determined by the fact of the war, Rubén Zamora questioned whether political parties were capable of assuming a leadership role in the transition, given their failure to go through an internal process of reform and modernization, as well as their instrumentalist view of civil society. Miguel Cruz laid out the complexity of public opinion regarding the peace process. Although a majority has consistently viewed the accords as positive, key expectations have not been met: after ten years, nearly half of those polled viewed the country as the same or worse than a decade ago, citing the increase in crime as well as disappointing economic perform- ance. Growing rates of abstention from electoral participation