What’s Next For the 2016 Campaign
95 days 208 days Until the GOP Convention Until the General Election (4/14 to 7/18) (4/14 to 11/8)
17 Trump Victory Scenario #1: It’s a Change Election
Voters Seek the Opposite of the Incumbent
Opposites Attract
Old Young
Weak Strong “No Drama” High Energy
Politically-Correct Un-PC
Elitist Populist Detached, Global Regular, Domestic Irresolute Strong
Tongue-tied, Eloquent, Weary Hopeful
20 Trump Victory Scenario #2: It’s a Realignment Election
REALIGNMENTS WHEN CRISES (OFTEN FINANCIAL) BRING LONG-SIMMERING PROBLEMS TO A BOIL, WITH NEW LEADERS LEVERAGING COMMUNICATIONS INNOVATIONS TO REACH NEW COALITIONS.
Financial crises erode remaining trust in the Establishment. New communications technologies disintermediate them.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year Leader – New Paradigm Financial Crisis New Communications Technologies 1 1796 Jefferson – Federalists / Anti-Federalists Panics of 1792, 1796-7 Newspapers proliferating 4x faster than population 2 1824/8 Jackson – More Representative Panic of 1819 Campaign Biography born (1824 “Life of Jackson”) Democracy 3 1856/60 Lincoln – Preserve the Union Panic of 1857 News via telegraph; illustrations in papers; cost of newspapers down to pennies 4 1896 McKinley/TR – Industrial Era Reform The Long Depression; Telephone; Linotype; halftone printing; ubiquitous Panic of 1893 campaign posters; over 10,000 newspapers 5 1932 FDR – More Activist Government 1929 Great Depression Radio 6 1980 Reagan – Less Intrusive Government 1970s Stagflation Direct mail (1970’s); CNN launched (1980); Conservative radio (Limbaugh+) 1988 7 2016 Trump – Anti-Globalization Nationalism ‘08-’09 Great Recession Facebook (‘04); YouTube (‘05); Twitter (‘06); iPhone (NASCAR Republicans & Sanders Dems: (‘07) anti-elites, anti-trade, anti-immigration)
Source (and a great read): Jill LePore, New Yorker, “Politics & the New Machine,” Nov. 16, 2016 21 Trump Victory Scenario #3: It’s A-B-C Anybody But Clinton Voters – By the Numbers 18% 25% 57% Fewer Dems voted Pinocchios awarded Percent of Sanders Percent of voters in ‘16 vs. ‘08 by Washington Post voters say they are believe Clinton is primaries, reflecting fact checkers for unwilling to back “untrustworthy” lower enthusiasm ever-evolving Clinton Clinton in general (Washington Post poll, Mar. 3-6 2016) (GOP up 57% from answers to email election ‘12) (Public Opinion questions (Glenn Kessler, (Marist Poll, Mar. 2016)
Strategies, 4/6/16) WashPost, Mar. 9, 2016)
Clinton Net Favorability 18-34 Blue Collar Midwest Over $75k Rural Independents White Men 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -18 -25 -20 -20 -22 -30 -35 -32 -40 -45 -41 -50 -45 Source: WSJ / NBC News, March 2016 22 Clinton Victory Scenario #1: New Demography
Coalition of the Offended (by Trump) = Coalition of the Ascendant
Unmarried Millennials Non-White Voters College Graduates Independents Women Will outnumber Now outnumber ~31% of 32.5% of those 25 42% of all voters married women Baby Boomers in electorate, highest & older had 4 year independents as st for 1 time ever U.S. workforce in U.S. history degree in 2015, up registered Rs & Ds (Voter Participation Data Center) (Pew Research, 2015) (Pew Research, Feb. 3, 2016) from 17% in 1980. hit historic lows. (US Census Bureau) (Gallup, 1/11/16)
Net Favorable Net Favorable Opinion of Opinion of TRUMP -74 -60 -65 -51 -37 TRUMP
Sources: Langer Research for ABC News / Wash. Post, Apr. 14, 2016 (Net Favorability) 23 How Clinton Wins #2: GOP House Divided #OnlyTrump vs. #NeverTrump
47% 17% of Trump Voters of GOP Voters will vote for the Democrat, an will vote for the Democrat, an Independent or not vote if Trump Independent or not vote if Trump denied nomination receives the nomination
Sources: Monmouth U. poll, 3/23, Q5 (#OnlyTrump); Quinnippiac, 3/23, Q3 (#NeverTrump) 24 How Clinton Wins #3: Sentiments Favoring Dems Obama Approval Surging
FOREIGN OVERALL 3-year high ECONOMY 6.5-year high 2-year high POLICY
Low GOP Net Image Usually Spells Doom 40 9/11 ATTACKS +35 30
BUSH43 20 REELECT +12
10 1ST OBAMA MIDTERM +1 0
POST- -10 IMPEACHMENT MIDTERM -9 BUSH41 LOSS -20 ND -16 2 BUSH MIDTERM ROMNEY NOW -17 McCAIN LOSS -23 -30 LOSS -25 -25 SHUTDOWN -31 -40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sources: Obama (CBS/NYT, March); GOP Net Image (Public Opinion Strategies) 25