Public Polling Analysis
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Table of Contents
National Environment ...... 2 Direction of the Country Issue Importance Trump Favorability Trump Job Approval Making Headlines ...... 6 Russia ...... 26 North Korea ...... 39 Gun Control ...... 50
National Environment
Direction of the Country
Would you say things in this country today are... The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Male Female Right Direction 27% 35% 20% Wrong Track 59% 55% 64% Not Sure 14% 11% 16%
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? Reuters/Ipsos, Americans online 10/6-10/17 9/26-10/3/17 9/22-26/17 9/15-19/17, , N=1584 , N=1659 , N=1557 N=3429 Right Direction 24% 25% 25% 26% Wrong Track 64% 63% 61% 60% Unsure 11% 11% 15% 14%
Rasmussen Reports, n=2,500 likely voters Right Wrong Track Direction 10/1-5/17 32% 62% 9/24-28/17 29% 65%
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Issue Importance In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today? Reuters/Ipsos, October 6-10, 2017, n=1,584 Americans online Total Terrorism / terrorist attacks 18% Healthcare 17% Economy generally 9% Morality 9% War / foreign conflicts 8% Crime 6% Unemployment/lack of jobs 6%
Which of these is the most important issue for you? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Healthcare 18% The economy 14% Social Security 13% Terrorism 10% The environment 8% Education 6% Medicare 6% Immigration 6%
Trump Favorability Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al Men Women Total Favorable 38% 45% 31% Total Unfavorable 54% 49% 60% Very Favorable 24% 31% 17% Somewhat Favorable 14% 14% 14%
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Somewhat Unfavorable 9% 9% 10% Very Unfavorable 45% 40% 50% Don’t Know 8% 6% 9%
Trump Job Approval
Reuters/Ipsos, October 6-10, 2017, n=1,584 Americans online Total Democra Republica Independent t n Total Approve 36% 10% 75% 29% Total 59% 88% 22% 67% Disapprove
The way Donald Trump is handling is job as president Gallup Poll, n= approx. 1,500 Adults nationwide Approve Disapprove Delta 10/8-10/17 37% 56% -19 10/7-9/17 36% 58% -22 10/6-8/17 37% 56% -19 10/5-7/17 38% 57% -19 10/4-6/17 39% 56% -17 10/3-5/17 39% 57% -18 10/2-4/17 39% 56% -17 10/1-3/17 39% 57% -18
Rasmussen, n=1,500 likely voters Total Approve Total Delta Disapprove 10/12/17 44% 55% -11 10/11/17 43% 56% -13 10/10/17 43% 56% -13 10/9/17 44% 55% -11 10/6/17 46% 53% -7
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10/5/17 45% 54% -9 10/4/17 44% 55% -11
The Economist/YouGov,, n=1500 US Adults Total Approve Total Delta Disapprove 10/7-10/17 36% 52% -16 10/1-3/17 39% 54% -15 9/24-26/17 37% 53% -16
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Making Headlines
October 11, 2017 - U.S. Voters Feel Good About Economy, But Not Trump, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Take A Knee For Both Trump And NFL Players
American voters feel better about the economy and good about their own pocketbooks, but still disapprove 56 - 38 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.
Today's approval rating compares to a 57 - 36 percent disapproval in a September 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Voters today say 55 - 43 percent that Trump is not fit to serve as president, compared to 56 - 42 percent not fit two weeks ago.
On his job approval, President Trump gets 81 - 12 percent support from Republicans, 55 - 40 percent backing from white voters with no college degree and 52 - 43 percent from white men. Every other listed party, gender, education, age and racial group disapproves.
American voters are divided on Trump's handling of the economy, as 48 percent approve and 46 percent disapprove.
A total of 61 percent of voters - close to an all-time high - say the nation's economy is "excellent" or "good," while 37 percent say it is "not so good" or "poor."
Their personal financial situation is "excellent" or "good," 73 percent of voters say, while 26 percent say it is "not so good" or "poor."
But only 27 percent of voters are "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied" with the way things are going in the nation today, while 72 percent are "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied."
Anti-Twitter sentiment hits a new high as 70 percent of voters say the president should stop tweeting from his personal account.
"After a turbulent stretch of heartbreaking tragedies, President Donald Trump is still deep in negative territory," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac
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University Poll.
"President Trump may not be fit, but the economy is, voters say. They remain troubled by the president's competence, but see the economy booming along under his stewardship."
American voter opinions of most Trump qualities remain negative:
• 56 - 40 percent that he is not honest;
• 59 - 38 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
• 54 - 44 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
• 67 - 29 percent that he is not level headed;
• 61 - 35 percent that he is a strong person;
• 56 - 40 percent that he is intelligent;
• 60 - 37 percent that he does not share their values.
NFL Protests American voters say 58 - 34 percent that Trump's comments on NFL protests were not appropriate. Republicans say 67 - 21 percent the remarks were appropriate and white voters with no college degree are divided 46 - 45 percent. Every other party, gender, education, age and racial group listed says the remarks were not appropriate.
Voters also disapprove 52 - 43 percent of NFL players taking a knee during the National Anthem. There are wide gender, age and racial gaps:
• Men disapprove 57 - 39 percent while women are divided 48 - 48 percent;
• Voters 18 to 34 years old approve 66 - 27 percent, while voters over 65 years old disapprove 62 - 34 percent;
• White voters disapprove 60 - 37 percent, as black voters approve 79 - 18 percent. Hispanic voters are divided 46 - 45 percent.
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Voters are divided 48 - 46 percent on their approval of Trump's handling of terrorism. He gets mostly negative approval ratings for handling other key issues:
• 38 - 58 percent for handling foreign policy;
• 39 - 56 percent for immigration;
• 35 - 59 percent for race relations;
• 37 - 49 percent for taxes.
From October 5 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,482 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.
Trump's Tax Plan Gets High Marks As His Approval Rating Stumbles: IBD/TIPP Poll
A majority of the public backs the key elements of the tax reform plan outlined by President Trump and the Republican leadership in Congress, including a sharp reduction in the corporate income tax rate and the doubling of the standard deduction, according to the latest IBD/TIPP poll.
But Trump's approval rating took a tumble this month, dropping to 33% and nearly erasing the gain he made last month.
The poll also found that nearly half say athletes should be disciplined by the NFL for protesting during the national anthem, and 33% say they're less likely to watch an NFL game because of the protests by football players.
The national poll was conducted from Sept. 29 through Oct. 8, and includes a sample size 887, giving it a margin of error = +/-3.4 percentage points.
Public Backs Tax Cut Specifics: The October IBD/TIPP poll asked several questions about specific proposals in the GOP tax plan, and found that each one gained majority support.
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• 51% support lowering the business income tax rate from 35% to 20%; while 43% oppose it. On a partisan basis, this gets 81% backing from Republicans, 52% from independents and 26% from Democrats.
• 52% support the GOP plan to cut the number of tax brackets from seven to three. That includes 75% of Republicans, 51% of independents and 32% of Democrats. Thirty-seven percent oppose.
• 81% support lowering the "pass through" tax rate on small businesses and file taxes using the individual income tax form from 39.6% to 25%. On a partisan basis, this idea gets 91% support from Republicans, 86% from independents and — surprisingly — 68% from Democrats.
• Nearly two-thirds (64%) support the idea of doubling the standard deduction for tax filers. Just 28% oppose. This, too, gets a majority support across the partisan spectrum, with 77% of Republicans backing it, 62% of independents and 56% of Democrats.
These findings stand in stark contrast to polls that showed limited support when the public was asked about "Trump's tax plan" in general. An ABC News poll found that just 44% backed the plan when described that way.
A Morning Consult poll also found little support when the public is asked generically about the Trump tax plan (47% approved). But it, too, found strong support for most of the individual pieces: 62% say doubling the standard deduction should be in the tax bill, 61% cutting small business taxes, 60% boosting child tax credit, 52% getting rid of the death tax.
Trump Support Drops: Trump's approval rating took another beating, dropping five points to 33%, while 61% disapprove. Last month, 38% approved while 57% disapproved. That drop brings Trump close to where he was in August, when his approval rating stood at a low 32%.
"The most significant declines in Trump's approval rating, according to our data, came from southerners, conservatives, millennials and women," noted Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts the IBD/TIPP poll.
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Trump's support in the south plunged 14 points, going from 48% in September to 34% in October. Among conservatives, it went from 72% to 63%; millennials, 33% to 22%; women, 34% to 26%.
Trump's favorability rating went from -20 points in September (38% favorable to 58% unfavorable) to -26 points in October (33% favorable, 59% unfavorable).
More than half (53%), say Trump is providing weak leadership.
As a result, the proprietary IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index dropped 9.2% in October to 36.5, the second lowest of Trump's presidency.
"Trump's feud with the mayor of San Juan provided his critics with an opportunity to criticize his ability to lead during a crisis. On the national anthem controversy, many Americans disapprove of the president's harsh language in his criticism of professional athletes who kneel during the anthem, though they may agree with his overarching message of patriotism," Mayur said.
The failure to get ObamaCare repealed and Trump's outreach to Democrats hurt his ratings among conservatives, he noted.
"Finally, his public disapproval of cabinet officials like Jeff Sessions and Rex Tillerson, along with the recent revelation of Tillerson's criticism of the president, does not reflect the high expectations many have assigned to Trump's dream cabinet."
NFL In Trouble: The public was fairly evenly split on the question of whether football players should face disciplinary action, such as a fine, for not standing during the national anthem, as allowed for in the Game Operations Manual.
Nearly half (49%) said the league should punish those athletes, while 46% said it shouldn't.
More than three-quarters of conservatives (79%) favor punishing those athletes, but just 17% of liberals do.
Generationally, support for punishing those athletes climbs with age, with only 35% of millennials backing punishment, compared with 46% of Gen-Xers, 56% of young boomers, 58% of old boomers, and 62% of those over age 71.
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Regionally, enforcing the national anthem guideline gets its strongest support from rural Americans (63% of whom say the athletes should face disciplinary action), and the least support among urban dwellers (41%).
By gender, the split is 55% men vs. 44% of women who favor enforcing the policy.
Meanwhile, a 33% say they're less likely to watch NFL games because of the protests, nearly three times as many as say they're more likely to watch (12%). Fifty-four percent say it makes no difference.
NFL ratings have declined since the controversy erupted last month.
In other findings:
• ObamaCare support is now at 59%, with opposition at 39%. This is one of the highest approval ratings ObamaCare has received since IBD/TIPP began asking that question. Support for the law had shown a decline in the monthly Kaiser Family Foundation survey.
• Just 20% say they are satisfied with the direction the country is going when it comes to morals and ethics. That's down from 23% in September and is the lowest number in 17 years of IBD/TIPP polling.
• 45% say the economy is improving, while 49% say it isn't. Last month, 51% said the economy was improving while 45% said it wasn't.
Methodology: The October IBD/TIPP Poll was conducted Sept. 2-Oct 8. It includes responses from 887 people nationwide, who were asked questions by live interviewers on cell or landline phones. The poll's margin of error is +/-3.4 percentage points.
The IBD/TIPP Poll has been credited as being the most accurate poll in the past four presidential elections, and was one of only two that correctly predicted the outcome of the November elections.
IBD/TIPP Poll: Presidential Approval, Direction Of Country
Each month, the IBD/TIPP Poll, a collaboration between Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica, produces an exclusive Presidential Leadership Index. This index combines results from several questions in the monthly IBD/TIPP Poll to gauge how
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well the president is viewed when it comes to leading the country, both domestically and internationally.
The index includes questions on presidential approval, favorability measures on the president's handling of domestic and foreign policy issues, and whether the president is providing strong or weak leadership.
In addition, IBD/TIPP each month asks questions focused on the public's outlook overall. These questions gauge satisfaction with the direction of the country, respondents' quality of life and the United States' standing in the world.
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Presidential Leadership Index: Overall
The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index dropped in October to 36.5, all but erasing the gain Trump made in August. It marks the third time the index has been under 40 since Trump took office.
The Leadership Index comprises three subindexes measuring the president's favorability, job approval (see below), and whether he is providing strong or weak leadership. Trump gained ground on all three subindexes in September.
Presidential Approval
President Trump's job approval rating dropped 5 percentage points in September to 33%. Trump lost the most ground from those in the South, as well as among conservatives, millennials and women. President Trump's approval rating has been below 40% for most of his presidency.
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Direction Of The Country
The Direction of the Country index dropped sharply in October to 34.4, a 10.2% decline from September. This index is now lower than the 37 average during President Obama's eight years in office.
Quality Of Life
The Quality of Life Index also dropped slightly in October to 56.8, a decline of 1.6%. The average under President Obama was 53.7. Unlike other measures, this has been relatively steady for the past 16 years. It peaked at 63.1 in January 2004. It's lowest level was 43.5 in June 2008.
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Standing In The World
Another measure included in the monthly IBD/TIPP Poll tracks the public's view of the United States' standing in the world. This plunged in October to 35.7, a decline of 20.1% from September and the lowest rating of Trump's presidency. Over the past 17 years, the highest this index ever got was in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, when it hit 74.9.
Poll: 70% support Trump's immigration policies, want Americans hired first
Most Americans support President Trump's immigration reform plans that aim to cut illegal entries and boost the hiring of legal Americans, according to a new survey just being circulated.
Despite charges from Democratic leaders like Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Nancy Pelosi that the "vast majority of Americans" decry Trump's America First focus, the new survey shows that many of the president's policies are supported by 70 percent to 80 percent of the public.
And they reject the media's description that the new White House list of immigration reforms issued Sunday night is "hardline."
Said a Trump official, "The administration's immigration priorities represent the mainstream view of the overwhelming majority of Americans."
Late Sunday, the White House offered a list of demands in return for a deal that would let some 700,000 recipients of the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals stay in the U.S. The list included funding of the U.S.-Mexico border wall,
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hiring more Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents and immigration judges, E- Verify, and the punishment of sanctuary cities.
Officials said that president has other immigration plans to unveil, but they won't be tied to any DACA deal.
The poll was completed by National Research Inc., and The Polling Company August 11-13. According to the analysis, 1,201 were interviewed, a third each via landline, internet and cellular phone.
The key findings:
• 71 percent call on companies to offer jobs to Americans before foreign workers. • 82 percent of voters support a law that would strengthen sentencing penalties for illegals who had previously been deported and strengthens laws against illegal immigrants who commit crimes in the U.S. • 76 percent want more ICE officers. • 75 percent support Trump's focus on jailing MS-13 members • 73 percent believe immigrants must be able to support themselves financially. • By a 2-to-1 margin, voters support limiting the number of immigrants who are seeking to live here just because their relatives do, so-called "chain migration." • 59 percent said new immigrants should be required to speak English. • 64 percent back legislation that would create a point system based on factors such as English speaking ability, education levels and job skills to rank applicants for the 140,000 employment-based green cards that are granted annually by the United States.
Overall more agree that legal immigration is at the right levels, but want illegal immigration curbed. They do believe, however, that the president's focus on illegals, the so-called "Trump Effect," has cut those crossing U.S. borders without approval.
Trump Approval Dips in Every State, Though Deep Pockets of Support Remain: A comprehensive survey of more than 470,000 Americans finds Trump's approval has fallen in every state since taking office
• A majority of voters in 25 states and the District of Columbia said they disapprove of the president’s job performance.
• Trump retains support from a majority of voters in 12 states ranging from the Mountain States to the South.
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Fewer than nine months into President Donald Trump’s White House tenure, a Morning Consult survey in all 50 states indicates that voters have grown bearish on his performance in office.
Trump has failed to improve his standing among the public anywhere — including the states he won handily as the Republican nominee during the 2016 presidential election, according to the online survey, which was based on interviews of 472,032 registered voters across each state and Washington, D.C., from Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration to Sept. 26.
The negative swings in net approval ranged from as high as 30 percentage points in solidly blue Illinois and New York to as low as 11 points in red Louisiana. But in many of the states Trump easily carried last year — such as Tennessee (-23 percentage points), Mississippi (-21 points), Kentucky (-20 points), Kansas (-19 points) and Indiana (-17 points) — voters have soured on the president in 2017.
A majority of voters in 25 states and the District of Columbia said they disapproved of the president’s job performance in September, including those residing in Upper Midwest states with large Electoral College hauls that were critical to Trump’s victory over 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton — and some of which are home to some of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats of the 2018 election cycle. Fifty-five percent of respondents in Michigan said they disapproved of Trump, as did 53 percent in Wisconsin and Iowa and 51 percent in Pennsylvania.
Fifty-one percent of voters in Nevada and Arizona, where the Senate GOP’s most vulnerable members are up for re-election next year, also disapproved of Trump’s handling of the presidency.
“It’s always hard, though not impossible, for the president’s party to maintain or even gain ground in an election,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said in a Sept. 21 interview. He cited solid approval numbers in recent years for former Presidents Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002, when their parties bucked midterm trends.
But, Kondik said, those types of gains are made when the president has favorable numbers.
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“Again, these presidents were all popular,” Kondik said. “Trump is not right now, and his weakened standing could threaten Republican chances to defeat Democratic Senate incumbents in dark red states.”
In three other states Trump carried during the presidential election — Florida, Georgia and North Carolina — voters were practically split on his job performance, with an even or nearly even net rating.
The president retained support from a majority of voters in a dozen states in September, all of which he carried in 2016. Trump is most popular in Wyoming, where 60 percent of Cowboy State constituents said they approved of his job performance as of September, followed by West Virginia, where 59 percent of Mountain State voters approved. Trump’s approval in the Deep South is highest in Alabama, at 59 percent, while 57 percent of Louisianans, 54 percent of Arkansans, 53 percent of Tennesseans and 51 percent of South Carolinians are still in his corner.
Looking at the bigger picture, Trump’s national net rating was down 19 points from January, when 49 percent of voters approved of him and 39 percent disapproved. In September, 43 percent of respondents approved of Trump while 52 percent disapproved.
The president enjoyed a relative honeymoon period during his first three months in office, but the decline in his support was consistent into August before his numbers bounced back slightly in September amid bipartisan deals with top congressional
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Democrats on extending the debt ceiling and government funding. From April to August, the dips tracked with a number of controversies involving the investigation into whether any of Trump’s campaign associates colluded with Russia to influence the 2016 presidential election — particularly the circumstances surrounding his decision to fire then-Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey in early May — and his reaction to the violent events in Charlottesville, Va. Congressional Republicans’ at- times chaotic and secretive efforts to overhaul the Affordable Care Act, former President Barack Obama’s signature 2010 health law, also correlated with a loss of confidence in the president.
Democrats and independents accounted for much of the downward spiral: Trump’s net approval among Democrats is down 25 points (from -46 to -71) since taking office and he’s down 18 points among independents (from even to -18). Eighty-four percent of Democrats and 54 percent of independents said they disapproved of Trump as of September. Republican voters have also taken a dimmer view of Trump’s job performance as the months rolled on: His net approval rating among GOP voters has dropped 9 points, although 81 percent still backed him in September.
Perhaps more concerning for Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill ahead of the 2018 midterms — which typically serve as referendums on the presidency — is a growing enthusiasm gap among GOP voters and dissenting partisans.
From January to September, the share of Republicans who strongly approve of Trump declined by 10 points, from 53 percent to 43 percent. Meanwhile, the intensity of disapproval among Democrats and independents has risen. Seventy-one percent of Democrats said they strongly disapproved of Trump in September, up 16 points from
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January, and among independents, there was an 11-point bump in strong disapproval, from 26 percent to 37 percent.
Those figures may encourage the Democratic Party, which is hoping to harness that energy — and a lack thereof for Washington’s ruling party — to ride a wave similar to the one that gave Republicans control of the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014.
Nonpartisan political handicapper and former Roll Call columnist Stuart Rothenberg said in a Sept. 25 interview that while the growing enthusiasm gap doesn’t guarantee a wave election, “the potential drop-off in Republican turnout, along with independents behaving like Democrats in the midterm elections, create a significant risk.”
However, that risk is minimized in the Senate, where Democrats are defending 25 seats and Republicans are trying to hold just eight — and “even in the House, you have so few competitive races,” Rothenberg said.
The more immediate problem for Trump, according to Rothenberg, is that his declining numbers will reduce his influence with Republicans on Capitol Hill, whom he’ll need to help secure legislative victories.
“He wants to have clout, and to the extent that he is deemed to be a drag — an albatross — on Republicans running around the country, it just lessens his influence on the Hill,” he said.
Use the table below to sort through Trump’s approval now and at the beginning of his term. State Jan. Approval Jan. Disapproval Sept. Approval Sept. Dissaproval MOE AK 55.20% 30.70% 52.30% 42.60% 5% AL 62.20% 26.20% 59.10% 35.80% 4% AR 59.00% 29.00% 54.40% 40.00% 5% AZ 54.60% 35.20% 44.20% 51.10% 3% CA 41.70% 47.60% 36.00% 58.30% 2% CO 45.30% 44.30% 41.10% 54.20% 4% CT 47.00% 42.30% 35.90% 59.40% 4% DC 29.90% 61.20% 17.40% 77.70% 4% DE 48.70% 40.50% 37.50% 57.20% 4% FL 55.80% 34.30% 47.90% 47.40% 3%
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State Jan. Approval Jan. Disapproval Sept. Approval Sept. Dissaproval MOE GA 53.40% 35.20% 47.50% 47.30% 3% HI 37.60% 51.50% 30.80% 63.70% 5% IA 48.60% 39.60% 41.90% 52.60% 4% ID 59.00% 30.00% 54.50% 40.50% 3% IL 48.70% 39.50% 36.90% 58.30% 3% IN 55.30% 33.10% 49.80% 44.90% 3% KS 56.30% 32.30% 50.10% 45.00% 3% KY 60.80% 27.20% 54.40% 40.80% 3% LA 58.80% 27.50% 57.10% 37.20% 3% MA 43.00% 47.10% 32.20% 62.80% 3% MD 38.30% 50.70% 33.20% 61.90% 4% ME 48.00% 40.30% 42.40% 52.20% 5% MI 47.60% 40.30% 39.60% 54.90% 3% MN 46.20% 43.00% 38.80% 56.10% 3% MO 53.20% 34.30% 49.40% 44.60% 3% MS 60.90% 27.20% 54.10% 40.70% 4% MT 56.50% 32.00% 49.80% 45.20% 3% NC 52.60% 35.30% 47.10% 47.80% 3% ND 55.80% 33.10% 50.90% 43.90% 3% NE 55.70% 33.10% 49.70% 45.50% 5% NH 45.20% 44.00% 38.00% 56.70% 4% NJ 45.50% 44.40% 37.70% 57.00% 3% NM 52.20% 35.40% 42.60% 52.10% 4% NV 49.40% 38.90% 43.60% 51.20% 3% NY 48.70% 40.90% 36.70% 58.40% 2% OH 50.70% 36.50% 45.80% 48.80% 3% OK 60.90% 27.20% 55.80% 38.90% 4% OR 45.30% 43.00% 38.60% 56.30% 5% PA 49.00% 39.50% 44.60% 50.70% 3% RI 42.30% 46.40% 34.60% 60.30% 4% SC 56.10% 31.20% 50.90% 43.90% 3% SD 54.20% 33.50% 50.70% 43.50% 4% TN 61.30% 27.70% 53.10% 41.80% 3% TX 54.30% 33.70% 50.60% 44.00% 2%
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State Jan. Approval Jan. Disapproval Sept. Approval Sept. Dissaproval MOE UT 57.60% 30.80% 52.40% 42.90% 6% VA 48.80% 40.60% 42.20% 52.90% 3% VT 43.10% 45.40% 33.00% 61.60% 5% WA 45.30% 44.50% 36.80% 58.30% 4% WI 47.10% 41.10% 41.30% 53.20% 3% WV 61.90% 25.20% 59.50% 35.70% 4% WY 63.30% 23.40% 60.50% 34.70% 4%
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State Races By the Numbers…
VIRGINIA
Northam leads Gillespie by 7% in race for governor; Democrats Fairfax and Herring also lead down ballot
Summary of Key Findings:
1. For Governor, Democrat Ralph Northam leads Republican Ed Gillespie, 49%- 42%. 2. For Lieutenant Governor, Democrat Justin Fairfax leads Republican Jill Vogel, 48%-40%. 3. For Attorney General, Democrat Mark Herring leads Republican John Adams, 51%-40%. 4. Changes since the last survey favor all three Democrats, but only Herring, the incumbent Attorney General, has crossed the 50% mark. 5. Crime and gang-related crime don’t appear to move most Gillespie or Northam voters, but far more Gillespie voters are concerned about illegal immigration.
Analysis:
With barely a month to go before Virginians choose their next governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, all three Democratic candidates maintain statistically significant leads over their Republican rivals, according to a Wason Center survey of likely voters. At the top of the ticket, current Democratic Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam leads former Republican National Committee Chair Ed Gillespie, 49% to 42%, with Libertarian Cliff Hyra taking 3% of the vote and another 6% still undecided.
Democrat Justin Fairfax, a former federal prosecutor, leads Republican state Senator Jill Vogel in the Lieutenant Governor’s race, 48% to 40%, while current Democratic Attorney General Mark Herring breaks the 50% mark in leading former federal prosecutor and White House aide John Adams, 51% to 40%. In a generic House of Delegates test ballot, Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates, 49% to 38%. T he Wason Center surveyed 928 registered voters, including 616 who were determined to be likely voters, October 2-6. The margin of error for the likely voter model is +/- 4.3% at the 95% level of confidence. Likely voters are registered voters with a history of voting in recent statewide elections, who also say they definitely or probably will vote in the upcoming election.
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In the Wason Center’s benchmark poll in this election, released September 25, Northam led Gillespie, 47% to 41%, and Fairfax and Herring similarly led Vogel and Adams.
“The movement we see in this tracking poll runs in the Democrats’ favor, and all three continue to hold their advantage,” said Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center.
In recent weeks the Gillespie campaign has opened up a line of attack against Northam centered on gangs, crime, and illegal immigrants. Gillespie voters appear to be no more concerned than Northam voters about crime generally or gang-related crime specifically, with very strong majorities of both indicating that crime and gang related crime are not problems where they live. However, the two candidates’ voters diverge sharply on whether illegal immigration is a problem, with a third (33%) of Gillespie voters agreeing or strongly agreeing that illegal immigration is a problem where they live and only 6% of Northam voters saying the same.
“Gillespie's focus on crime and immigration appear to be attempts to appeal to his base, specifically those Republicans who voted for his primary opponent,” said Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center.
Emerson College Poll: Northam Leads Gillespie by Five Points in VA Governor’s Race. Voters Split Over Charlottesville, Confederate Monuments.
Boston, MA – A new Emerson College poll in Virginia finds Democratic Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam leading former Republican National Committee chair Ed Gillespie in the race for Governor by a margin of five points, 49% to 44%. Libertarian nominee Cliff Hyra takes 2%. The margin is virtually unchanged from the results of the 2016 Presidential election in the state – Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump in the Old Dominion 50% to 44%. The poll, with a sample size of n = 318 and a margin of error of +/- 5.5%, was conducted from October 5 – October 7.
President Trump endorsed Gillespie on Twitter on Thursday night. Trump has a 42% favorable opinion and 53% unfavorable opinion in Virginia. The current Democratic Governor of Virginia, Terry McAuliffe, is also underwater with regards to favorability, with 39% viewing McAuliffe favorably compared to 41% who view him unfavorably, while 15% have no opinion of the outgoing Governor.
Northam and Gillespie hold similar approval numbers – Northam comes in at 42% favorable/39% unfavorable, while Gillespie scores a 43% favorable/42% unfavorable
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rating. These numbers are similar to the 2013 race between McAuliffe and Ken Cuccinelli where both candidates boosted high unfavorable ratings and the focus was to maximize turnout in the Northern part of the Commonwealth for McAuliffe and along the western region for Cuccinelli.
Democrats lead on a generic ballot for the Virginia House of Delegates as well. Statewide, a generic Democratic candidate defeats a generic Republican candidate 48% to 44%. Independents break for the Republican candidate 42% to 38%.
The recent events in Charlottesville continue to be divisive in Virginia. 38% of Virginians approve of President Trump’s response to the events, and 51% disapprove. Governor McAuliffe’s response to the events split the electorate down the middle – 36% approve of his response, while 36% also disapprove, while 22% have no opinion.
A plurality of Virginians, 44%, continue to support keeping Confederate monuments on public property – including 20% of Democrats, 73% of Republicans and 49% of independents. 37% believe that these monuments should be displayed only in museums or exhibits – including 57% of Democrats, 13% of Republicans and 32% of independents. Only 4% of Virginians say the monuments should never be displayed.
The Confederate flag appears to be less popular than the monuments with 30% supporting the display of the Confederate flag on public property, while 50% are opposed. Notably, the public display of the Confederate flag is opposed by 48% of White voters, and supported by 35%. Among African Americans, the flag is opposed by 66% and supported by 13%.
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Russia
By the Numbers:
Do you consider Russia to be a friend or an enemy of the United States? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al F riendly 16% Tot al Unfriendly 64% Ally 4% Friendly 12% Unfriendly 36% Enemy 28% Not sure 20%
Do you think Donald Trump considers Russia to be a friend or an enemy of the United States? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al F riendly 42% Tot al Unfriendly 35% Ally 12% Friendly 30% Unfriendly 21% Enemy 14% Not sure 23%
Do you think the following statements are true or not true? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Total Total True Not True Russia hacked the email of Democrats in order to increase 52% 47% the chance that Donald Trump would win the Presidential election
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Russia tampered with vote tallies in order to get Donald 39% 61% Trump elected President Russia created and spread fake news stories to help Donald 56% 43% Trump win the election
How concerned are you about improper relations between the Trump campaign and Russia? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al Concerned 48% Tot al N ot Concerned 36% Very Concerned 30% Somewhat Concerned 18% Not very Concerned 14% Not Concerned at All 22% Not Sure 16%
Senate Democrats worry Russia could jeopardize reelection bids
A warning from the Senate Intelligence Committee has vulnerable lawmakers fretting about election security
Democratic senators fighting to hold on to their seats next year are increasingly worried about a troubling reality: Russia appears set to mess with U.S. elections — again.
The bipartisan leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee warned last week that Russia's second straight attempt to upend a major election appears certain. They pointed to hacked emails, fake news stories and other evidence of interference in France, Montenegro and elsewhere over the past year as signs Moscow remains determined to monkey with voting.
Democratic senators such as Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Jon Tester of Montana — who hail from states President Donald Trump won in 2016 — know they're already facing stiff reelection challenges.
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Now they’re concerned the Trump administration is dragging its feet on thwarting sophisticated Russian cyber operations that could have significant impact on their races — and could even sway which party wins control of the Senate. The red- and purple-state Democratic seats are top targets for Republicans hoping to expand their two-seat majority in the Senate; Democrats likely would have to hold all of them if they are to have any hope of retaking the chamber.
“If there isn’t some effort to take steps against Russian interference, every campaign is going to have to be on guard and working against it,” said Casey, describing himself as “very concerned.”
Trump has been reluctant to acknowledge, as various congressional panels have concluded, that Russia overtly interfered in last year’s election. The president has described Moscow’s purported meddling as a “hoax” and said Democrats are making excuses for his defeat of Hillary Clinton in November, even though some members of his own party believe it’s likely to happen again. “You can't walk away from this and believe that Russia's not currently active in trying to create chaos in our election process,” Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), the Senate intelligence chairman, said last week.
Democrats say the president’s disinterest has meant there’s been little urgency behind preparing for the next wave of Russian threats, which U.S. intelligence has said included hacking and leaking Democratic operatives’ emails and creating fake Facebook and Twitter accounts to push stories that hurt Clinton.
Democrat Mark Warner of Virginia, vice chairman of the Senate intelligence panel, said last week at a joint news conference with Burr that he was frustrated the Department of Homeland Security took nearly a year to notify 21 states that Russia tried to penetrate their election systems. Some states disputed that assessment, including Wisconsin, leaving a lack of clarity that Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) — who is also up for reelection next year — called “kind of disturbing.”
Rep. Bennie Thompson of Mississippi, the top Democrat on the House Homeland Security Committee, complained in a letter to DHS last month that his call for a briefing on election security concerns had been rejected because Republicans weren't planning to attend.
Senate Democrats sought to attach a package of election security measures to a recently passed defense bill — and were turned down by Republicans who lead the
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chamber. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently said it asked its Republican counterpart to work together on cybersecurity issues but never heard back.
“We absolutely need to get ahead of this,” Heitkamp, one of the GOP’s top targets in the midterm elections, told POLITICO. “We need to understand the threat. But more importantly, states need to understand this is real.”
Warner and Burr said they intend to map out the breadth and depth of the Russian 2016 interference campaign by early 2018. But Burr said those findings wouldn't necessarily point toward policy solutions — rather, it would be up to states and other committees in Congress to develop responses.
That leaves little time for states to respond ahead of the 2018 primary election season, which begins in Texas in March.
State election officials say they're confident in the integrity of their vote-counting systems heading into 2018, with numerous upgrades responding to the breaches that marred last year’s election. States are creating cyber defense offices, adding extra security layers to network logins, revamping digital training for employees, establishing digital security positions and making plans for wholesale upgrades of voter registration systems.
Still, these same officials concede that money is tight, imperiling long-term investments such as replacing the country’s already old voting machines. Many blame a tight-fisted Congress for refusing to help fill the financial gap and express anger over Republicans’ attempts to defund a federal election agency.
In the waning days of the Obama administration, DHS labeled the country’s election systems as “critical infrastructure” in an attempt to get states more access to the government’s technical insight and expertise. The agency recently erected an election security task force to streamline its efforts.
DHS is setting up a coordinating council to align states' work on bolstering electoral cybersecurity, spokesman Scott McConnell said.
“We continue to work with state and local election officials to improve the security of their election infrastructure," McConnell said by email. "We are having regular and continuous dialogue and building trusted relationships. States have already taken
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steps to secure elections, and DHS’ efforts are meant to support, not replace, state and local efforts."
But former DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson said in August that the U.S. elections were “almost as vulnerable, perhaps, now as we were six, nine months ago."
The concerns are particularly acute for Democrats facing tough re-election battles.
West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s home state was not one of the 21 notified by the Trump administration that Russia tried to interfere with voting, but he echoed other vulnerable Democratic incumbents in vowing vigilance against any repeat threat of electoral disruption.
“I think we have to get out in front of it,” Manchin said. “We’re watching everything that we possibly can.”
It’s not just Democrats fretting about potential Russian cyber-intrusions as the midterms approach. Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) won Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) support for an amendment to a defense bill that would have set up grants for states to modernize aging voting systems and bring federal authorities together to create guidelines for cybersecurity of voting.
House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) has introduced another election-security bill, and Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said this week that he’s working on legislation of his own on the issue.
“We’ve got to maintain state control of their own elections,” Lankford said. “And we also want to be able to help states trying to defend themselves against a foreign adversary.”
Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) said he's confident his state is ready for what's likely to be a fierce reelection fight by his counterpart, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. Blunt — a former top election official in Missouri — said his primary fear is any cyber intrusion of states' vote-counting systems. Officials have insisted there is no evidence of such an infiltration in the 2016 race, but security experts warn that flawed and aging voting machines make it possible.
"Whether it's bad actors in another country or some guy in his own basement, you just want to make sure that if you have questions about the integrity of the count that there's a way you can always go back and recreate what happened," he said.
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Blunt praised efforts in some states to ensure voting machines include a paper trail, and he said secretaries of state, typically the top election officials in their state, have the most at stake when it comes to ensuring voting occurs seamlessly. He said he's not sure whether state election security efforts will require more federal resources.
A test case for 2018 will occur in Virginia, which is holding a gubernatorial election next month that could be closely fought. Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), who as Clinton's running mate got a firsthand view of Russian interference attempts last year, said he worried that states needed more details about that foreign influence operation to prepare for next year's.
"2016 is in the rearview mirror," he said, "But we ought to protect future elections. I am confident that we are going to get the full story out on the table.”
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Nunes signs off on new subpoenas to firm behind Trump-Russia dossier
(CNN)The chairman of the House intelligence committee has issued subpoenas to the partners who run Fusion GPS, the research firm that produced the dossier of memos on alleged Russian efforts to aid the Trump campaign, according to sources briefed on the matter.
The subpoenas -- signed by California Republican Rep. Devin Nunes -- were issued Oct. 4, demanding documents and testimony later this month and early November.
Earlier this year, Nunes announced that he was stepping aside from directing the committee's Russia inquiry after he became the subject of an ethics investigation into his handling of classified information. But more recently, he has made clear that he is still playing an influential role, despite announcing that he had delegated authority on the Russia matter to Republican Rep. Mike Conaway of Texas.
A source familiar with the matter told CNN that all Russia-related subpoenas have been approved by Conaway, and Conaway confirmed to CNN Monday he asked for the most recent subpoenas.
But the subpoenas appear to be the latest fight in an investigation that has periodically been hobbled by controversy and infighting.
A Democratic committee source said "the subpoenas were issued unilaterally by the majority, without the minority's agreement and despite good faith engagement thus far by the witnesses on the potential terms for voluntary cooperation."
Indeed, the move blindsided some committee members, multiple sources told CNN. And it has angered some on the committee who say that Nunes is still seeking to direct an investigation he was supposed to have no involvement in leading.
"He's not in any way, shape or form working on the investigation," said one Democratic committee member. "He's sitting outside the investigation and pushing it in a political direction."
Rep. Eric Swalwell, a California Democrat, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer that Nunes appeared to be "trying to undermine the investigation."
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"This would violate that recusal if this is indeed what he has done," Swalwell said.
Conaway said the committee's procedures were to consult with the committee's Democratic leader, and that "the mechanics on that fit in with the chairman's responsibilities."
"I'm trying to maintain good relations, but at the end of the day we need to get those records that are subject to those subpoenas," Conaway said.
Asked by CNN Monday why he issued the subpoenas, Nunes declined to comment. "You can ask, but you're not going to get a response," Nunes said.
Previously, in a June interview with CNN, Nunes said: "When I temporarily stepped aside from leading the investigation, that's exactly what it means: It doesn't mean I wasn't going to be involved, it doesn't mean I wasn't going to be fully read in."
Joshua Levy, an attorney for Fusion GPS, said the firm's founder, Glenn Simpson, already provided a 10-hour interview to the Senate judiciary committee and Nunes could first seek to review that testimony.
"This is a blatant attempt to undermine the reporting of the so-called 'dossier,' even as its core conclusion of a broad campaign by the Russian government to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election has been confirmed by the US intelligence community and is now widely accepted as fact," Levy said.
"Rep. Nunes recused himself, but now appears to be running a parallel investigation outside of the official (House intelligence) investigation run by Reps. Conaway and (California Rep. Adam) Schiff. His actions undermine the House, its investigation and the public's ability to learn the truth. As we evaluate these subpoenas, we have serious concerns about their legitimacy."
The Fusion GPS subpoenas mark at least the fourth time Nunes has inserted himself into the investigation since his April announcement that he was temporarily stepping aside.
Earlier this summer, Nunes led an effort to subpoena the FBI, CIA and NSA about Trump associates whose identities were allegedly unmasked during the presidential transition by Obama administration officials.
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Later, a pair of GOP staffers on the panel flew to London to urge the British agent who wrote the dossier, Christopher Steele, to appear before the committee, an effort several committee members said was led by Nunes. And in late August, Nunes signed off on subpoenas to Attorney General Jeff Sessions and FBI Director Christopher Wray to provide the panel with records about the Justice Department's relationship with Steele and the Trump dossier, warning in a letter that he would haul them to Capitol Hill to answer questions at a public hearing if they did not comply.
Tension has been building on the House intelligence committee over Nunes' role ever since he first secretly traveled to the White House in March to review classified intelligence reports that he said showed rampant misconduct by US officials in revealing the identities of unsuspecting Americans, including Trump officials. Nunes later briefed President Donald Trump on the matter, and seemed to give cover to the President's unsubstantiated allegations that former President Barack Obama had Trump Tower wiretapped during the campaign. Nunes, however, did say that he had seen no evidence that Trump Tower was wiretapped.
After the House ethics committee in April announced it would investigate Nunes over allegations he disclosed classified information, the Republican chairman said he would temporarily step aside from the probe -- a move that satisfied Democrats on the panel at the time.
But while the announcement was widely viewed as a recusal from the Russia investigation, Nunes has said privately and publicly since then that he never recused himself.
In fact, as chairman, Nunes still retains significant power to influence the investigation -- even as Conaway is in charge of leading the investigation.
Most notably, Nunes still has the power to issue subpoenas "in consultation" with Schiff, the committee's top Democrat.
But unlike other committee members, Nunes does not attend classified hearings of the key witnesses in the Russia probe, sources said, and instead appears to be making his push from the outside.
The committee's Democrats face a dilemma: They still need Nunes to sign off on subpoenas that Conaway and Schiff are seeking directly tied to the Russia investigation.
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As a result, intelligence committee sources say Democrats are opting not to object loudly to Nunes issuing subpoenas, so long as he continues to sign off on the subpoenas that Conaway and Schiff want to issue as part of their probe.
"His recusal is basically entirely up to his discretion," said one intelligence committee source. "When you talk about the unmasking situation, people don't see that as separate, but they don't really have a way of stopping it."
Google Finds Accounts Connected to Russia Bought Election Ads
SAN FRANCISCO — Google has found evidence that Russian agents bought ads on its wide-ranging networks in an effort to interfere with the 2016 presidential campaign.
The findings from an internal inquiry draw Google further into the growing investigation of how social networks and technology services were manipulated by the Russian government to spread misinformation and sow division during the 2016 election.
Using accounts believed to be connected to the Russian government, the agents purchased $4,700 worth of search ads and more traditional display ads, according to a person familiar with the company’s inquiry who was not allowed to speak about it publicly. Google found the accounts through its own research and information provided by other technology companies.
Google found a separate $53,000 worth of ads with political material that were purchased from Russian internet addresses, building addresses or with Russian currency. It is not clear whether any of those were connected to the Russian government, and they may have been purchased by Russian citizens, the person said.
The messages of those ads spanned the political spectrum. One account spent $7,000 on ads to promote a documentary called “You’ve Been Trumped,” a film about Donald J. Trump’s efforts to build a golf course in Scotland along an environmentally sensitive coastline. Another spent $36,000 on ads questioning whether President Barack Obama needed to resign. Yet another bought ads to promote political merchandise for Mr. Obama.
The ads appeared mainly alongside Google’s search results or on websites that use Google ads outside the search company’s own sites. It was not clear whether such ads appeared on YouTube or the Gmail email service, the person said.
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There is a chance that Google may find other ads from Russian-linked accounts, the person familiar with the investigation said.
Microsoft, a distant rival to Google in the internet search and advertising market, said Monday evening that it too was examining whether suspected Russian agents used its services to show political ads during the 2016 election. Microsoft’s Bing search engine accounts for about 23 percent of searches in the United States, compared with more than 63 percent for Google, according comScore, an internet measurement firm.
Google has been called to testify at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on Nov. 1. But it has so far escaped the intense scrutiny confronting Facebook after the social network admitted that it discovered 470 profiles and pages to the internet Research Agency, a Russian company with ties to the Kremlin.
The top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, Representative Adam B. Schiff of California, said on Monday that it should not be surprising that Russians were using Google as well as Facebook and Twitter. The only thing that is surprising, he said, is that it took so long for Google to find the activity.
“It will take more time and length and breadth to know what Russia did on social media,” Mr. Schiff said. “But the themes are consistent across platforms: the desire to help Donald Trump, to hurt Hillary Clinton and the desire to set Americans against each other.”
In addition to the Senate committee hearing, Google and Facebook are expected to testify at another Nov. 1 hearing before the House Intelligence Committee. Twitter was also invited to the House committee hearing, but it was not clear on Monday whether officials from the company planned to attend.
Facebook has said the Russian company had placed 3,000 ads on its network at a cost of about $100,000. Last month, Twitter said it had found about 200 accounts that appeared to be linked to a Russian campaign to influence the election.
Google is the only company that sells more digital advertising than Facebook, and its role in the coordinated Russian campaign has been a source of intense speculation in Washington and Silicon Valley. The Washington Post reported that Google had found that Russian agents hoping to spread misinformation had spent tens of thousands of dollars on the company’s advertising platforms.
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But Google’s investigation has not found the same type of pinpoint advertising that Russian agents conducted on Facebook. The social network allows advertisers to target its audience with more specificity than Google, including users with a wide range of political leanings.
The 2016 presidential election was the first time that Google allowed targeting by political leanings and it allowed just two categories — left-leaning and right-leaning.
However, Google has not found any evidence that the ads from the accounts suspected of having ties to the Russian government used these political categories or geographic parameters to focus on specific groups, the person familiar with the company’s investigation said. The ads were much more broad, aimed at English- language queries or any users in the United States, for example.
A Google spokeswoman, Andrea Faville, said the company had a policy that limited political ad targeting and prohibited targeting based on race and religion.
“We are taking a deeper look to investigate attempts to abuse our systems, working with researchers and other companies, and will provide assistance to ongoing inquiries,” Ms. Faville said.
On Facebook, fake Russia-linked accounts — in which fictional people posed as American activists — promoted inflammatory messages on divisive issues. Those accounts bought advertising to promote those messages and reach a bigger audience within the Facebook universe, while promoting the incendiary posts to different locations or people with established political leanings for maximum impact.
The Russian-linked accounts did not target ads based on political affiliation, but it raises the question of why Google allowed such targeting for the 2016 election when it had not done so in the past. The only location where Google allows ad targeting by political affiliation is the United States.
Google is working with Jigsaw, a think tank owned by its parent company, Alphabet. Jigsaw has been doing research for 18 months on fake news and misinformation campaigns and Google is applying some of those findings in the investigation into Russian election meddling, the person said. It is also working with other technology companies like Facebook and Twitter, in addition to independent researchers and law enforcement.
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North Korea
By the Numbers:
Do you consider North Korea to be a friend or an enemy of the United States? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al F riendly 5% Tot al Unfriendly 86% Ally 2% Friendly 3% Unfriendly 13% Enemy 73% Not sure 10%
Do you think Donald Trump considers North Korea to be a friend or an enemy of the United States? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al F riendly 5% Tot al Unfriendly 82% Ally 2% Friendly 3% Unfriendly 7% Enemy 75% Not sure 14%
How important is foreign policy to you? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al Im port ant 84% Tot al Unim port ant 17% Very Important 42% Somewhat Important 42%
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Not Very Important 11% Unimportant 6%
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Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump is handling foreign policy? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al Approve 35% Tot al Disapprove 47% Strongly approve 19% Somewhat approve 16% Somewhat disapprove 12% Strongly disapprove 35% No Opinion 18%
Trump’s North Korea Threat-Theater Is Working
The heated rhetorical exchanges between Washington and Pyongyang have once again fired public interest in Korean war scenarios and the Korean information war.
Obvious truth tends to die in Beltway media darkness, but The Washington Post finally noticed the intent and utility of the Trump administration’s orchestrated information warfare operation, something Observer readers know I began covering in March and emphasized in August and September while mainstream media dismissed Trump as incompetent.
It’s a fair bet that one recent “scenario” article was read with interest by North Korean intelligence analysts, senior military officers with access to global media, and Kim Jong “Rocket Man” Un.
On October 7, the Voice of America published what I’ll call a double-barreled article, meaning it combined a military-political intervention scenario and an indirect (or inadvertent) sampling of Trump’s information operation.
VOA’s first barrel featured a speculative North Korea scenario written by a former Economist editor Bill Emmott and published by Project Syndicate in early September.
VOA’s second barrel highlighted a comment President Donald Trump made on October 5 following a visit to the White House by top U.S. military leaders. Trump said the
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visit was “the calm before the storm.” When reporters asked the president to elaborate on “the storm,” he simply said, “You’ll find out.'”
But back to Barrel One. Emmott posited a Chinese military intervention in North Korea to convince the North Korean military to remove the Kim regime. Emmott wrote:
“Whereas a nuclear exchange with the U.S. would mean devastation, submission to China would promise survival, and presumably a degree of continued autonomy. For all except those closest to Kim, the choice would not be a difficult one.
China’s strategic gains from a successful military intervention would include not only control of what happens on the Korean Peninsula, where it presumably would be able to establish military bases, but also regional gratitude for having prevented a catastrophic war.”
But would Beijing’s gamble work? Emmott acknowledged the risks. Though China has superior military forces “…their inferior opponents have leaders who might be prepared to use nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction, if they did not simply accept Chinese terms and surrender.”
Emmott added this upside: A Chinese invasion in lieu of an American-led attack “would stand a better chance of avoiding Kim’s likely response: an artillery attack on the South Korean capital, Seoul, which lies just a few dozen miles south of the demilitarized zone.”
In June, StrategyPage.com published an analysis of China’s relationships with North Korea and South Korea and argued that a united Korea “is something China is willing to go to war over to prevent, or at least make some serious moves in that direction.” This scenario maintains the division of Korea.
On October 7 (after VOA’s article first appeared on the web), President Trump fired two tweets at North Korea.
@realDonaldTrump - Presidents and their administrations have been talking to North Korea for 25 years, agreements made and massive amounts of money paid...... 3:40 PM - Oct 7, 2017
@realDonaldTrump - ...hasn't worked, agreements violated before the ink was dry, makings fools of U.S. negotiators. Sorry, but only one thing will work! 3:45 PM - Oct 7, 2017
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To put it colloquially, The Donald continues to mess with Rocket Man.
Several months ago, Trump decided to give North Korea a relentless dose of its own threat-theater bombast. Trump seeds his threat-theatrics with customized belittling designed to rattle an imperious autocrat (e.g., Crooked Hillary, Little Rocket Man). Trump is conducting an information warfare operation, and one Kim Jong Un and his regime have not confronted, especially one executed by an American president. Trump didn’t undermine Secretary of State Rex Tillerson when he tweeted that Tillerson was “wasting his time” negotiating with North Korea. That drama was “good cop, bad cop,” with the goal of rattling Kim. Nor does Trump undermine Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis. That noted, at times it must astonish (and perhaps please) Mattis that this is the first time in his professional life he’s played the good cop.
Moreover, Trump’s information warfare operation isn’t all verbal theater, good cop- bad cop kabuki and tweetkrieg. The U.S. and its allies back the verbal assaults and tweets with shows of powerful and credible military force.
Trump’s information operation appalls mainstream media, despite the Washington Post’s belated and singular epiphany. Media geniuses continue to miss its point. The information warfare operation sends the message “hey dummy, it’s different.” It forces the Kim regime to recognize the geo-strategic situation has changed in ways that the regime did not expect and cannot control. Strategic patience is really over, Rocket Man. That’s Trump’s message and the Kim regime and North Korean military are its critical audiences, not the sideshow of mainstream media.
Which brings us back to VOA’s double-barreled article. VOA is U.S. government-funded and overseen by an independent agency.
VOA is editorially independent but is tasked with presenting a “balanced” view of issues. As its Wikipedia page notes, VOA radio broadcasts influence foreign public opinion, and I assume that holds true for its website. I doubt anyone in the Trump administration told VOA to write the October 7 article. From an editorial point of view, its newsworthiness alone justifies publishing it. Nevertheless, when juxtaposed, the article’s two barrels frame a choice for North Korea: Chinese intervention and survival versus Madman Trump’s war of annihilation. I’ll wager there are North Korean intelligence analysts and senior military officers who will read it that way and read it as a message. Kim Jong Un’s information warfare advisers certainly will.
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Why, Kim might conclude it’s time to purge intelligence analysts and kill a few more senior military officers. Would Beijing read that as a sign of instability? Stay tuned.
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Trump's fiery, furious threats to 'totally destroy' North Korea might just work
President Donald Trump's bold approach to North Korea has horrified many and raised the issue of nuclear war into everyday conversation, but the unconventional tactic may work in a roundabout way, an expert on US-China relations and North Korea says.
Trump's fiery rhetoric and the administration's decision to make North Korea its top national security priority have "changed the momentum" on the issue, Yun Sun, a senior associate at the Stimson Center, a Washington, DC-based think tank, told Business Insider.
In recent months, North Korea has shocked the world by demonstrating that it's most likely just a few months from developing a nuclear-equipped intercontinental ballistic missile.
President Donald Trump has responded to North Korea with escalating rhetoric, saying in August that the US would respond to further North Korean threats with "fire and fury." Last month, he stood in front of the United Nations and threatened to "totally destroy" North Korea if necessary. He has leaned more heavily on the prospect of military action than any of his recent predecessors.
While North Korea has yet to halt its nuclear program, Trump's rebukes of the country's leader, Kim Jong Un, and the president's open flirtation with nuclear war appear to have pushed the international community toward action.
"If the criteria is North Korea stops its nuclear program, the data so far suggests that North Korea has not been stopped by real or rhetorical threats," Sun said.
But if the criteria is to get China, North Korea's treaty ally and the nation responsible for 90% of its trade, to stop backing Pyongyang, Trump's threats have "worked and potentially could 'work' more," Sun said.
"No matter how much people don't like him, he has extracted more cooperation out of China than any of his predecessors on North Korea," Sun said of Trump.
So even though North Korea is unlikely to be frightened by Trump's sometimes obvious bluster, the intended audience for the threats may not be Kim.
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Several countries have cut or curbed ties with North Korea in recent weeks as the Trump administration has stepped up its approach toward Kim, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday.
Over the past 25 years, the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations attempted to curb North Korea's nuclear program through a mix of sanctions, diplomacy, and aid dollars to feed the sometimes starving nation.
Despite these efforts, North Korea has continued its provocations and missile tests, culminating this year in two intercontinental-ballistic-missile launches, two missile launches over Japan, and its most powerful nuclear test yet.
At best, previous administrations slowed North Korea's nuclear progress but failed to stop it. At the same time, Trump's threats and bluster appear to have whipped up a kind of urgency that UN sanctions and condemnations and previous administrations' diplomacy failed to do.
Defense Secretary Mattis urges US Army 'to be ready' with North Korea military options
• Defense Secretary James Mattis calls on the U.S. Army "to be ready" with North Korea "military options that our president can employ, if needed."
• Speaking at an Army convention in Washington, Mattis said diplomatic efforts and sanctions continue "to try to turn North Korea off this path."
• Mattis also criticized Congress for not doing more to invest in the U.S. military and said America's advantage is being "eroded."
• The secretary also called for open communications with Silicon Valley and American industry to help the military get more advanced equipment and capabilities.
Defense Secretary James Mattis on Monday told the U.S. Army "to be ready" should military action be ordered by President Donald Trumpagainst North Korea.
Speaking to the Association of the United States Army (AUSA) convention in Washington, Mattis said efforts continue by the administration to get a peaceful solution to the problem of having a nuclear-armed North Korea. He said, "North Korean provocations [are] threatening regional and even global peace."
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"It is right now a diplomatically led, economic-sanction buttressed effort to try to turn North Korea off this path," said Mattis. "What does the future hold? Neither you nor I can say, so there's one thing the U.S. Army can do, and that is you've got to be ready to ensure that we have military options that our president can employ, if needed."
The comments come amid heightened tensions with North Korea, which has indicated it plans to conduct more ballistic missile tests. The hermit regime also has threatened to conduct a nuclear weapons test over the Pacific.
The retired four-star Marine Corps general also spoke about how past mistakes made during battles are "a reminder that we've got to be brilliant in the basics of blocking and tackling. Right now what we want to do is be so ready and be very much aware that we fight the way we come that everybody in the world wants to deal with Secretary [of State Rex] Tillerson and the Department of State, not the Department of Defense and the United States Army."
Mattis also was critical of Iran without mentioning it by name.
"One state sponsor of terror in the Mideast cannot hide behind its nation-state status while in effect it is actually a destabilizing revolutionary regime," he said.
"The international situation is the most complex and demanding that I have seen in all my years of service — and that's over four decades," Mattis said.
However, the Defense secretary didn't specifically talk about the Iran nuclear deal, although in remarks last week to Congress said the U.S. should stay in the international agreement. Trump, who has been sharply critical of the deal, faces a looming Oct. 15 deadline on whether to certify Iran's compliance with the agreement.
At the same time, Mattis was critical of Congress for not doing enough to invest in the readiness of the military and he called on U.S. lawmakers to get rid of automatic spending cuts under budget caps and the so-called sequestration process.
"I am among the majority in this country that believes our nation can afford survival," Mattis said. "And I want the Congress back in the driver's seat of budget decisions, not in the spectator's seat of automatic cuts."
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Added Mattis, "We have the time right now to prepare for war as the best way to prevent war," he said. "But should conflict break out, to get money later will not be good enough because we won't have the time at that point."
Meantime, Mattis on Monday also called for open communications with Silicon Valley and American industry to help the U.S. military get its hands on more technologically advanced equipment and capabilities. He said America's military advantage is being "eroded" as other major superpowers adopted new advances more rapidly.
"I want no longer this gulf between us to deny us the very advances that American industry is out there and executing for themselves in the private sector," said Mattis. "The advances in weaponry that are out there right now."
Mattis added, "I've lived out in Silicon Valley for the three years that I was retired. I've seen what American industry is capable of, from Silicon Valley to Michigan, from Boston to Texas. And we've got to open the communication with them much more robustly."
Elsewhere, Mattis said reforms were underway at the Pentagon to "move faster in research in engineering." He also said acquisition reforms were in the works.
Congressionally mandated legislation passed last year will result in the splitting up of the job of undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics (AT&L) into two positions: one on the technology wing and a second on the acquisitions wing.
The Defense secretary also applauded the Army's new modernization strategy "to move us more rapidly and organize to move more rapidly."
The Army modernization plan includes acquisition reform and is expected to be formally announced this week at the AUSA convention. That said, some details of the Army plan already are known based on a memo sent last week to the general staff and from acting Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley.
The memo, which was obtained by CNBC, said the military's "recent focus on fighting wars of insurgency and terrorism allowed our adversaries to make improvements on their modernization efforts and erode our advantages enjoyed since World War II."
The Army had no comment on the memo.
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Mandy Smithberger, a defense expert and director at the nonpartisan watchdog Project On Government Oversight (POGO), said to some degree that the "memo is based on a false premise that technology is going to be the deciding factor. Tactics and strategy and how weapons are used is really where the thinking needs to begin."
Smithberger believes the memo is essentially the Army's "justification for a larger budget. This is the kind of rhetoric we heard around the Future Combat Systems where the Army ended up wasting $19 billion and fielding really nothing."
The Future Combat Systems was an earlier modernization program to replace heavy armor with more networked weapon systems consisting of lighter armored vehicles, weaponized robots and other advanced tech on the battlefield. It was formally ended in 2009 but information was still learned from the program that some experts see as beneficial today.
The Army memo stated the need to streamline work "to overcome the bureaucratic inertia and stove-piping found in the Army's current construct. It will directly incorporate requirements from the warfighter into the acquisitions process and allow us to prototype concepts. It will enable disruption — the messy, chaotic work that is the hallmark of truly innovative organizations."
According to the document, the Army "must turn ideas into action through continued experimenting and prototyping, improving acquisition business process, pursuing appropriate/off-the-shelf options, and improving training."
Indeed, some members of Congress also have pushed for the Pentagon to use more commercial off-the-shelf products as a way to cut costs in the military.
Some consumer electronics already have found their way into the U.S. military. For example, Microsoft's Xbox 360 game controllers have been used to operate Navy submarine periscopes. Also, other branches of the armed forces have used similar off- the-shelf devices to control robot movements.
POGO agrees with the use of off-the-shelf options "as long as it's something that is truly commercial," said Smithberger. However, she said there are "a number of instances where the military has purchased things claiming that it's commercial off the shelf but there's so many modifications made that it really isn't commercial — and costs get totally out of control."
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Gun Control
By the Numbers:
How important is gun control to you? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al Im port ant 73% Tot al Unim port ant 27% Very Important 47% Somewhat Important 26% Not Very Important 15% Unimportant 12%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump is handling gun control? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al Approve 34% Tot al Disapprove 42% Strongly approve 18% Somewhat approve 16% Somewhat disapprove 10% Strongly disapprove 32% No Opinion 24%
Which is more important? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al Men Women The right of people to own guns 15% 21% 10% Protecting people from gun 28% 25% 30% violence Both are equally important 47% 46% 49% Not sure 10% 8% 11%
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In general, do you feel the laws covering the sale of handguns should be made more strict than they are now? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al Men Women Make gun laws more strict 51% 44% 57% No change 28% 33% 24% Make gun laws less strict 8% 12% 5% Not sure 13% 12% 14%
Do you favor or oppose the following gun control measures? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Favor Oppose Not Sure Preventing persons with a history of mental 77% 12% 12% illness from owning guns Requiring criminal and mental background 75% 15% 11% checks for all those buying guns, including at gun shows and private sales Requiring people who purchase handguns to 68% 20% 13% wait five days before they receive that gun Requiring gun owners to register their guns 61% 27% 12% with a national gun registry Banning the sale of magazine clips for semi- 57% 29% 14% automatic weapons that hold more than 10 rounds Spending $50 million to hire officers and 55% 25% 21% counselors for schools, and provide emergency planning in schools Banning semi-automatic weapons 53% 33% 14% Requiring people to obtain a police permit 52% 32% 16% before buying a handgun Limit the number of handguns a person can 49% 39% 12% own Having the Centers for Disease Control conduct 46% 30% 24% research on gun violence Stationing armed guards at all schools 42% 40% 19%
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Preventing people from carrying a concealed 39% 47% 14% gun in public Banning the sale of all handguns, except those 24% 63% 13% that are issued to law enforcement officers Making it easier to buy a silencer 17% 67% 16%
Do you think that stricter gun control laws could have prevented the Las Vegas shooting? The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al Yes 38% Tot al N o 51% Definitely yes 19% Probably yes 19% Probably no 19% Definitely no 32% Not sure 11%
Do you think the sale of bump stocks, mechanisms that allow semi-automatic rifles to fire bullets more rapidly, should be… The Economist/YouGov, October 7-10, 2017, n=1500 US Adults Tot al Men Women Banned completely 53% 49% 57% Regulated, but not banned 22% 25% 19% Neither regulated nor banned 11% 16% 6% Not sure 14% 10% 19%
Poll: Majority backs stricter gun control laws after Vegas shooting
A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows that a majority of voters support stricter gun control laws in the wake of last week’s mass murder of 58 concertgoers in Las Vegas by a single man with nearly two dozen firearms shooting from the window of his 32nd-floor hotel room.
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On most of the proposals to regulate gun ownership — including background checks, restrictions on where Americans can carry firearms and prohibitions against accessories like the “bump fire” stocks used by the Las Vegas gunman — large majorities express support in the poll, conducted last Thursday through Monday.
But despite those findings, voters still don’t think the chances are high that Congress will act to strengthen federal firearm laws, even after the deadliest mass shooting in modern American history. And slightly more voters still say it’s more important to protect Americans’ right to own guns than it is, in general, to limit gun ownership.
Sixty-four percent of voters support stricter gun laws, the poll shows, including 41 percent who strongly support them. Less than 3-in-10 voters, 29 percent, oppose stricter gun laws, including 16 percent in strong opposition.
That’s a slight increase in support from June of this year, when 61 percent of voters backed stricter gun laws and 33 percent opposed them.
Democratic voters are overwhelmingly supportive of new gun laws: Eighty-three percent back stricter laws, compared with only 12 percent who oppose them. Among independents, 58 percent support stricter gun control, and a third oppose them.
But the poll also finds some less-likely groups are closely split. Forty-nine percent of Republican voters support stricter gun control laws, and 45 percent oppose them. Among voters who said they supported Donald Trump in last year’s election, 46 percent are in favor of stricter gun laws and 48 percent are opposed.
A 55 percent majority of gun owners back new restrictions, while 41 percent oppose them.
Seventy-nine percent of voters support banning the use of bump fire stocks — the device the Las Vegas shooter used to modify a dozen of his semi-automatic weapons to fire hundreds of rounds per minute. Only 13 percent of voters oppose banning bump fire stocks.
A number of specific proposals garner significant public support, with more than eight in 10 voters backing required background checks on all gun sales (88 percent), preventing sales of all firearms to people who have been reported as dangerous to law enforcement by a mental-health provider (87 percent), making private gun sales and sales at gun shows subject to background checks (84 percent), preventing those
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convicted of violent misdemeanors from buying guns (83 percent) and barring gun purchases by those on the federal “no fly” or terrorist watch lists (82 percent).
“The results of this survey demonstrate there is support for at least some new gun control measures, even if support for whole-scale reform is murkier,” said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief research officer. “Sixty-four percent of voters, including 49 percent of Republicans, support stricter gun laws. There are also individual proposals that receive even broader backing, such as 84 percent support for closing the gun show loophole.”
Other proposals earning majority support: requiring all owners to store their guns in a safe storage unit (77 percent), creating a national database for each gun sale (76 percent), requiring a three-day waiting period for gun purchases (76 percent), banning assault-style weapons (72 percent), banning high-capacity magazines (72 percent), prohibiting Americans from carrying guns at schools and on college campuses (69 percent), limiting Americans to one firearms purchase per month (69 percent), limiting ammunition purchases (69 percent) and banning firearms from all workplace settings (59 percent).
Wide support for stricter gun measures Do you support/oppose ___? Support Oppose DK/NA Requiring background checks on all gun sales 88% 7% 5% Preventing sales of all firearms to people who have been reported as dangerous to law 87% 7% 6% enforcement by a mental-health provider Expanding screening and treatment for the 87% 6% 7% mentally ill Making private gun sales and sales at gun shows 84% 10% 6% subject to background checks Preventing sales of all firearms to people who 83% 11% 7% have been convicted of violent misdemeanors Barring gun purchases by people on the federal 82% 10% 8% no-fly or watch lists Banning the use of bump fire stocks, a gun accessory that allows a shooter to fire hundreds 79% 13% 8% of rounds per minute Requiring that all gun owners store their guns in 77% 17% 6% a safe storage unit
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Do you support/oppose ___? Support Oppose DK/NA Creating a national database with information 76% 17% 6% about each gun sale Requiring a mandatory waiting period of three days after a gun is purchased before it can be 76% 17% 7% taken home Banning assault-style weapons 72% 21% 7% Banning high-capacity ammunition magazines 72% 20% 8% Banning firearms from schools and college 69% 23% 8% campuses nationally Limiting the number of guns that can be 69% 22% 9% purchased to one per month Limiting the amount of ammunition you can 69% 24% 7% purchase within a given time period Banning firearms from all workplace settings 59% 31% 10% nationally Requiring that all gun buyers demonstrate a "genuine need" for a gun, such as a law- 48% 44% 9% enforcement job or hunting Making it easier for people to buy gun silencers, also known as suppressors, which reduces the 24% 65% 11% amount of noise generated by firing
Voters don’t believe it’s likely that Congress will act on these proposals, however. Only a combined 26 percent say there’s an excellent or good chance of stricter gun control laws passing Congress in the next year or so, the poll shows. A quarter say the chances are fair, while 38 percent say the chances are poor that Congress will pass stricter gun laws.
Moreover, backing for stronger gun laws is weaker on two other measures. If stronger laws are enacted, just 40 percent say they think gun violence will decrease because it will be harder for “criminals and persons with mental-health issues” to acquire guns, while 32 percent think gun violence will increase “by making it more difficult for people to defend themselves against criminals and persons with mental-health issues.”
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Voters are evenly divided on which party in Congress they trust more on gun policy: Thirty-nine percent trust Democrats, and 38 percent trust Republicans. The remaining 23 percent are undecided.
And given a choice between protecting the right of Americans to own guns and limiting gun ownership, 47 percent think it’s more important to protect gun rights, while slightly fewer — 42 percent — say limiting gun ownership is more important.
Among Republican voters, 70 percent say it’s more important to protect gun rights, compared with 23 percent who say limiting gun ownership is more important. A quarter of Democrats think it’s more important to protect gun rights, while 63 percent lean toward limiting gun ownership. Independents tilt toward protecting gun rights, 49 percent to 36 percent.
Voters with at least one gun in the household think it’s more important to protect gun rights — by a ratio of more than 2-to-1, 66 percent to 27 percent. But a 51 percent majority of voters without guns in the home think it’s more important to limit gun ownership.
The poll surveyed 1,996 registered voters and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Trump is wild card in gun control debate
As rare bipartisan momentum builds on Capitol Hill for a change to gun laws, the wild card in the debate might be the man in the White House.
President Trump has a long and checkered history on gun reform that stretches back decades and runs a spectrum of conflicting positions, from promotion of an assault weapons ban to a more recent embrace of the Second Amendment protectionism advocated by the National Rifle Association (NRA).
Following Sunday's mass shooting in Las Vegas, the deadliest in the country's history, the president vowed to revisit federal gun laws "as time goes by." That promise will be tested by Democrats, who are pushing hard this week for a range of legislative steps to reduce gun violence.
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It may also prove a headache for GOP leaders, who for decades have aligned themselves with Second Amendment advocates in blanket opposition to new restrictions on buying, owning or operating firearms — a stance they've largely maintained following the horror in Las Vegas.
“It’s premature to be discussing legislative solutions, if there are any,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Tuesday.
Faced with the Republicans’ refusal to debate the issue, Democrats are increasingly turning to the White House in hopes that Trump will take their side and use his bully pulpit to bring Republicans along.
If recent history is any indication, though, they have their work cut out for them.
Trump, since hitting the presidential trail in 2015, has positioned himself as a fierce champion of gun rights and staunch opponent of any Second Amendment restrictions. During the campaign, he argued that gun violence “has nothing to do with guns,” blaming the problem on gun-free zones like those surrounding schools and “people that are mentally ill.”
“The gun laws have nothing to do with this,” he told ABC’s “This Week” program in October of 2015. “This isn't guns. This is about mental illness.”
In April, Trump spoke before the NRA’s annual convention — the first sitting president to do so since Ronald Reagan — and vowed he’d never infringe on the right to bear arms.
“You came through for me, and I am going to come through for you,” he said.
Since taking office, Trump has rolled back Obama-era regulations designed to reduce gun violence. And following Sunday’s events in Las Vegas, the president has largely sidestepped the gun-reform debate, focusing instead on memorializing the victims and praising the first responders.
“The president is a strong supporter of the Second Amendment,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said. “That hasn't changed.”
Citing that history, many Democrats aren’t holding their breath for Trump to back tougher gun laws in response to the Las Vegas massacre.
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“The best time to have made that statement would have been when he was in Las Vegas [on Wednesday], and he didn’t,” said Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.). “Something might come, but if you’re talking about impact, the impact opportunity has come and gone.”
Still, Trump was not always opposed to tougher gun laws.
In “The America We Deserve,” his book published in 2000, when he was exploring a bid for president under the Reform Party, Trump accused Republicans of being pawns of the gun lobby.
“The Republicans walk the NRA line and refuse even limited restrictions,” he wrote.
In the same book, he also promoted an assault weapons ban and “a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun.”
More recently, after the 2012 mass shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., Trump hailed then-President Obama for launching an aggressive campaign against gun violence that included 23 executive actions and a series of legislative proposals he urged Congress to adopt.
“President Obama spoke for me and every American in his remarks in #Newtown Connecticut,” Trump tweeted at the time.
The Democrats have been buoyed by a pair of recent agreements — one on the budget, the other on immigration — cut between Trump and Democratic leaders in the face of GOP opposition. They’re hoping that cooperation extends to the gun debate.
“Historically, he was on the other side,” said Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.), the head of the Democrats’ gun-violence prevention task force, who’s urging Trump to join the Democrats on legislation like expanded background checks and a prohibition on gun sales to those on the FBI’s “no-fly” list.
The Democrats may see some rare movement on gun legislation in the coming weeks, as the Vegas shooting has sparked a sudden interest in bump stocks — devices which essentially convert semi-automatic weapons, which are legal, into automatic weapons, which are not.
The devices were used by the shooter in Nevada, likely increasing the lethality of the attack, and several bills banning them have emerged this week. Some lawmakers are
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also pushing the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) to reclassify bump stocks, making them unavailable to most consumers without the need for congressional action.
Sanders, the White House spokeswoman, said Trump is “certainly open” to a discussion on whether bump stocks should be prohibited.
Democrats are welcoming those proposals, along with the willingness of some Republicans to endorse them. But they’re also warning that a bump-stock ban is hardly enough to stop the epidemic of gun violence across the country.
“If that’s the bill in front of me, I’ll vote for that,” Thompson said. “[But] if this majority believes that a bump-stock prohibition is enough, they’ve been smoking something.
“It just doesn’t even come close.”
WHITE HOUSE CALLS OUT LAS VEGAS PROFESSOR FOR SAYING AFTER MASS SHOOTING THAT TRUMP'S ELECTION INCITED VIOLENCE
The White House says a University of Nevada-Las Vegas assistant professor should be “ashamed of herself” for telling her students four days after the Las Vegas mass shooting that “people will die” because of President Donald Trump’s election.
Tessa Winkelmann told her history class that she predicted Trump’s election would lead to death. Her comments came after Stephen Paddock killed 58 people and injured hundreds on the Las Vegas Strip, located minutes away from the university campus.
"I don’t know that these events would have inevitably happened whether or not he got elected, but he has rhetorical powers every president has to encourage or to discourage [violence]," Winkelmann said to her class on Thursday in a video obtained by the Las Vegas-Review Journal.
Winkelmann did not explicitly mention the Las Vegas shooting in the video, but she referred to how Trump “threatened to declare violence against North Korea” as rhetoric leading to violence.
“And words, especially if they are coming from someone who is president, have consequences,” she said.
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White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders called out Winkelmann in an interview with the Journal.
“It is sad she is teaching students such divisive, inaccurate and irresponsible rhetoric,” Sanders told the Journal. “She should be ashamed of herself, and the university should look into it. What a terrible example to set for students.”
One student told the paper that Winkelmann’s comments started a shouting match among students.
In an email to the Journal, the assistant professor apologized for her comments. Winkelmann said that the following the shooting, she wanted to give her students a space in her classroom to discuss how they were affected.
“I regret that my comments caused more pain during this difficult time,” she told the Journal. “Emotions were running high, and I wish I would have been more thoughtful in how I directed the conversation.”
After the shooting, university President Len Jessup released a statement saying he wanted the campus to be a place where students could talk about the shooting and begin to heal.
"Having a place where we come together and talk, in classes, during the vigil and in gathering spaces across campus, gives us all an opportunity to begin to heal as a community," he said.
University of Nevada-Las Vegas, which has a student body of 30,000, has not specified whether Winkelmann will be reprimanded for her comments. University spokesman Tony Allen said in a statement that the university values and respects free speech on campus.
“While we respect academic freedom in the classroom and the right to free speech, we believe the comments were insensitive, especially given the series of events this week and the healing process that has begun in the community,” he said.
According to Winkelmann’s university biography, the assistant professor teaches in the history department, leading classes in U.S. foreign relations as well as women and gender history in a global perspective. She started working at the university in 2015.
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