| No 1 | January to February 2007

KAZAKHSTAN | Trends in Conflict and Cooperation

The resignation of Prime Minister Daniyal Akhmetov on 8 January led to the automatic resignation of the entire government. Only two days later, the parliament elected his successor and a new government was formed. This shows that the change in government was planned before hand. The new Prime Minister, Karim Masimov, is a 41- year-old ethnic Uyghur educated in Russia, the U.S. and China, and reportedly fluent in English, Arabic and Chinese, besides Russian and Kazakh. He has a record of holding various high-ranking government and business positions, the latest serving as a deputy prime minister in the previous government. Experts do not expect any policy change by the new government: first, because the political power still lies with the President, and second, because many ministers in the new government have served in the previous one, albeit in different functions. On 19 February the State Democracy Commission held its conclusive meeting, in which it came up with recommendations for further political reform. Some of the recommendations tackle the current system of power. The Commission suggested shifting some of the powers from the President to the parliament (e.g. the right to nominate members of the Constitutional Court and the Central Election Commission). Even if implemented, given the strong presidency the overall political system is not set to change. The State Democracy Commission was initiated and supervised by the President and boycotted by the opposition. Experts see the establishment of the Commission as an effort to improve the country’s international image, which suffered in the past due to continued reports of failed elections, lack of rule of law and human rights abuses. To further demonstrate its commitment towards democratic reforms and as a conciliatory move towards the opposition, the opposition Social Democratic Party was registered on 25 January. The Party is led by Zhamarkhan Tuyakbay, a former speaker of the Kazakhstani senate and candidate for the 2005 presidency. Other opposition parties are still waiting for their registration, among them the parties Alga and Atameken, both of which were denied registration due to incorrect signature lists of their supporters. Despite these conciliatory steps, democratic rules are far from being implemented. The political decision making process is concentrated in the inner power circle of the President and his family and not run by democratically legitimized institutions like the government and the parliament. This inner power circle is heavily involved in business activities. The latest example is the scandal around the President’s son-in-law, Rakhat Aliev, who is accused of kidnapping a chairman and his deputy of the banking institute Nurbank. In order to ease tensions caused by the scandal, Aliev was sent to Vienna as Kazakhstan’s ambassador to Austria and the international organizations present there. His tasks include the promotion of Kazakhstan’s bid to hold the chairmanship of the OSCE in 2009 (see below).

Kazakhstan is successfully continuing its multi-vectored foreign policy. One cornerstone of this policy is the rapprochement to the West. Already for several years, Kazakhstan has been bidding for the chairmanship of the OSCE in 2009. At the 2006 Ministerial Council, the decision on the chairmanship was postponed due to the outstanding democratic reforms until the end of 2007. In an effort to honor Kazakhstan’s continued interest in chairing the OSCE, it was decided that Kazakhstan would host the meeting of the OSCE parliamentary assembly in 2008. It is now up to Kazakhstan to prove its firm commitment to democratic reforms. Various Western governments are quite confident that Kazakhstan will achieve its goal, barring any unforeseen developments. Among the government representatives who positively commented on Kazakhstan’s OSCE bid was the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, during President Nazarbaev’s official visit to Germany on 29 and 30 January. With Germany holding the presidency of both the European Union (EU) and the G8, this visit underlined the importance of German-Kazakhstani relations as a reflection of the EU’s increased attention towards the countries of Central Asia. The increased attention is motivated – not exclusively but mainly – by the search for alternatives to Russian energy resources and for extended military cooperation within the framework of the Anti-Terror-Coalition in Afghanistan. As a result, Germany and Kazakhstan signed an agreement allowing the transit through Kazakhstani territory of military equipment and personnel heading for Afghanistan. FAST Update | Kazakhstan | No 1 | January to February 2007

Kazakhstan’s multi-vectored foreign policy is directed towards attracting business and diversifying export routes. This policy approach was re-emphasized when President Nazarbaev visited Kyiv on 5 February, where he held talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yushchenko on economic cooperation, mainly in the transportation and energy spheres. The discussion focused on the shipment of Kazakh oil to Ukraine and Western through the Odessa-Brody-Gdansk pipeline. Combined with plans by the state-owned KazMunayGaz Company to build an oil refinery in the Georgian port of Batumi, the pattern of an energy exportation route from Kazakhstan to Europe, bypassing Russia, clearly emerged. It remains to be seen whether this will harm traditionally good Russian- Kazakhstani relations. Besides Russia, the United States are one of the “strategic partners” of Kazakhstan. During his visit to Kazakhstan on 27 January, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher outlined the fields of cooperation between the two countries: economic cooperation and the process of reform. Furthermore, the United States declared their intention to support Kazakhstan in diversifying its economy, a crucial task for a country whose economic growth is based mainly on the exploitation and export of hydrocarbon resources.

On a day-to-day level, political maneuverings as well as foreign policy directions are of a lesser concern to the people. Highly debated are issues such as the motion of the government to increase the profile of the in the public as well as the idea to change from the Cyrillic to the Latin alphabet. Catalyst of the debate was the opening of teaching centers in the state (i.e. Kazakh) language and the Education Ministry’s idea that all school graduates will have to pass compulsory examinations in the Kazakh language starting in 2008. The resolution adopted by the Constitutional Council on 23 February, according to which the Kazakh and Russian languages are used equally in state organizations and local government institutions did not end the debate. However, the language discussion has been simmering for many years. The task for the authorities of finding a balance between the need for promoting the Kazakh language and the fears of non-Kazakh speakers ( and non-Kazakhs) is quite difficult. Yet there is no real danger of major ethnic unrest or a remarkable worsening in Kazakhstani-Russian relations. The above-mentioned lack of transparency and the rule of law are not only issues at the highest political level, but also at lower government levels. The actions of the local authorities in a dispute Relative Conflictive Events Kazakhstan (blue) and Almaty province (red) about land property rights between the local government of the Almaty suburb Karasai and the local Hare Krishna community do not seem to correspond to the rule of law. As reflected in the graph, a peak was reached on 21 November 2006, when the authorities demolished 13 houses belonging to members of the Hare Krishna community. The underlying reason for the conflict is clearly economical, as the land is close to Almaty where real estate prices are soaring. The local authorities, however, ostensibly argue on strictly legal grounds, claiming that the actual usage of the land plots acquired by the Hare Krishna community does not correspond to the usage rights stated in the purchase contract. Despite these claims, remarks by local government Source: FAST event data officials suggest a religious undertone in the affair. International criticism on the demolition of houses (OSCE, U.S. Embassy, U.K. Parliament) did neither lead the authorities on a conciliatory path nor will it seriously undermine the country’s OSCE ambitions.

Kazakhstan is set on a stable path of development. There are no serious threats to the overall stability of the country and, on the international level, Kazakhstan will continue to lobby for its bid for the OSCE chairmanship while maintaining its balanced policy towards different regional players. In the upcoming months the current rule of President Nazarbaev will not be challenged in any way, despite the President’s entourage’s efforts to prepare for the succession in 2012. As this date nears, increased tension in the upper power circles are to be expected, although probably with few repercussions on the lives of ordinary people.

Contact FAST International is the early warning program of swisspeace, FAST International covering 25 countries/regions in Africa, Asia and Europe. Based in Country Team: Kazakhstan Bern, Switzerland, the program is funded and utilized by an Sonnenbergstrasse 17 international consortium of development agencies, including the 3000 Bern 7 Austrian Development Agency (ADA), the Canadian International Switzerland Development Agency (CIDA), the Swedish International Development [email protected] Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Swiss Agency for Development and www.swisspeace.org Cooperation (SDC).