2018 UN Social Cohesion and Reconciliation Index for Eastern Ukraine Migration tendency in eastern Ukraine: negative trends in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts About USE

The UN Social Cohesion and Reconciliation Index for Eastern Ukraine (USE) is an analytical tool designed to improve the understanding of societal dynamics in government-controlled areas (GCA) of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and neighboring Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. This helps to identify strategic entry points for policies and programs that contribute to strengthening social cohesion.

USE is based on the Social Cohesion and Reconciliation (SCORE) Index methodology, which was originally developed in Cyprus by the Center for Sustainable Peace and Democratic Development and UNDP. The initiative in Ukraine is jointly implemented by three UN entities, UNDP, UNICEF and IOM, under the overall direction of the Office of the United Nations Resident Coordinator, and is one of the UN’s evidence-based knowledge products for joint analysis and programming in Ukraine.

USE is implemented on an annual basis and consists of two components: one component captures the views of 6,000 adults residing in the five oblasts in eastern Ukraine, including along the GCA side of the contact line; the other component captures the views of adolescents in Donetsk and Luhansk GCAs. The USE conceptual model comprises more than 70 indicators, each measured through multiple questionnaire items.

Conceptualization and analysis of the data has been done in consultations with government and civil society representatives in Kyiv and in each of the five oblasts. For more information on USE and to see the results of the first (2017) and second (2018) waves please visituse.scoreforpeace.org . Photo: Shutterstock Photo:

1 UN SCORE for Eastern Ukraine MIGRATION TENDENCY IN EASTERN UKRAINE: NEGATIVE TRENDS IN DONETSK AND LUHANSK OBLASTS contributing to re-shaping thepopulation profilecontributing to ofthe re-shaping country. haslongfaced While eastern Ukraine the rapid declineofthepopulation. debated over andreported thepasttwo decades, behind andhasbeennamedoneofthefactors social, security, political, andenvironmental ones. Strong outward migration hasbeen from Ukraine There are variousreasons why peoplemay want to leave theirplace ofresidence, includingfinancial, that more reflect negative trends. in order to or healthy distinguish between is normal thus important patterns,tendency and those an overall negative onsocialcohesion. Understandingthedrivers andscope impact ofmigration on thelocaleconomy, inaregion, causingbrain-drain disruptingsocialdynamics, andleadingto and well-managed migration policies”. responsible migration ofpeople, andmobility includingthrough theimplementation ofplanned withinandamongcountries by ofinequality reduction facilitating “orderly, safe, regular and or even apositive phenomenon.Oneofthetargets ofSustainableDevelopment 10isthe Goal of a population and freedomMigration the mobility reflects of movement, and is thus a neutral 2 1 from theregion. place ofresidence, migration andoutlinessteps that canbetakento preventlarge-scale further bymigration analyzingthereasons ineastern Ukraine why tendency peoplewant to leave their incentivize peopleto continue buildingtheirfuture ineastern Ukraine. This focuses brief on Understanding thedrivers of migration iscrucialfor designing to policiesandinterventions people leaving theregion. industries, thistrend in2014,withmillions intensified of ofthearmed conflict following thestart the reality ofitsresidents leaving thearea dueto theweak ofitsbackbone economic performance

http://iom.org.ua/sites/default/files/ff_eng_10_10_press.pdf https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg10 „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ Migration tendency is moreMigration pronouncedtendency among younger people, aged 18-35, than among older however, anoticeable increase andLuhansk inboth Donetsk oblasts; just under half of the population expressing a desire to leave their place of residence. There was, remainedOverall migration ineasternunchangedfrom Ukraine 2017to tendency 2018,with Summary ofkeyfindings Introduction and asenseofagency, andimprove andtheavailability ofleisure satisfaction activities. locality that enhance together civic engagementwith activities support, traditional income-generating aimedat mitigating negativeInterventions population trends mustincludeacombination of professions; and white-collar the olderpopulation, additionaldrivers includelow trustincentral in institutions andhaving skills Additional drivers for andinfrastructure. theyounger For population includepoorpublicservices migration tendency; Experience ofatraumatic event, whether conflict related ornot, isalsoasignificantdriver of dissatisfaction; The mainreasons for why peoplewant to migrate are civicdisempowerment andlocality tendency; people, aged36-60. There isnodifference between menand women whenit comes to migration 2 Internal migration Internal are andlabormobility lessvisible, butare

1 Large-scale migration, however, Large-scale may have adverse effects 2 UN SCORE for Eastern Ukraine MIGRATION TENDENCY IN EASTERN UKRAINE: NEGATIVE TRENDS IN DONETSK AND LUHANSK OBLASTS 4 3 Frontier communities andLuhansk ofDonetsk resource oblasts:aneglected higher inclination toward migration,(seeUSEbrief muchlower satisfaction althoughtheyreport locality islocated.where ofMariupol thelarge city People linedonothave livingalongthecontact amuch central Luhansk oblastandinsouthern Donetsk oblast, whilethelowest oblast, Donetsk isinsouthern are alsonoteworthy differencesDonetsk and within Luhansk oblasts:migration ishighestin tendency highest migration isinLuhansk tendency oblast(5.3)andthelowest oblast(4.5). inZaporizhzhia There aboutleaving,no oneisthinking and10indicates wishesto that everyone leave. The average score for is4.8(seeFigure migration ineastern Ukraine tendency 1),where 0indicates that differences andrural between urban residents. There are, however, nosignificant differences between menand women,nor are there any significant 18–35 have astronger wishto leave 1). theirplace ofresidence thanpeopleofolderage(see Table Age istheonlydemographic that onmigration hasasignificant factor impact tendency. People aged is,Migration however, tendency increasing andLuhansk inDonetsk oblasts. indicating adesireless thanhalf of thepopulation ineastern Ukraine to leave theirplace ofresidence. The overall regional score for migration remained unchangedfrom tendency 2017to 2018,withslightly

Migration tendency is not a measure of actual migration isnotameasureMigration ofactual tendency flows, but refers to the extent to whichpeopleare inclined to leave theirplace of residence insearch ofmore or better opportunities. better opportunities. The USEmigration indicator alsodoes notexplore tendency thelocations where peoplewant to move orabroad). to (withinthecountry A 0.5difference inscores indicates anotabledifference. 18 – 35 Dnipro 5.6 „ Geographical comparisons to leavetheir homes? Which residentsofeasternUkrainewant „ Demographic comparisons 2017–2018 Migration tendency „ „ Figure 1. Table 1. Age group Migration by demographic tendency group 36 – 60 Range ofscoresRange Migration tendency 4.7 Dnipropetrovsk region 4.7 Dnipro Zaporizhzhia regionZaporizhzhia 61+ 3.8 Kharkiv regionKharkiv 0 4.5 4.9 1 Women South-West Donetsk Sea ofAzovSea West Donetsk 4.6 4.9 Centre Donetsk 4.7 2 5.6 North Donetsk South Donetsk 4.8 East Donetsk 4.4 4.6 3 Sex contact line contact Donetsk 4.5 Luhansk Centre 5.0 region Donetsk 4 4 Luhansk North 5.0 Men 4.9 contact line contact Luhansk Average scores 5.3 5 region Luhansk South Luhansk ). Luhansk East 5.7 5.3 6 Urban 7 4.7 3 At theoblastlevel, the Settlement type Settlement 5.3 4.8 4.8 4.7 8 Donetsk oblast Donetsk Luhansk oblast Contact line Five oblast 9 Rural 4.8 10 3 UN SCORE for Eastern Ukraine MIGRATION TENDENCY IN EASTERN UKRAINE: NEGATIVE TRENDS IN DONETSK AND LUHANSK OBLASTS of theircommunity, themore likelytheyare to want to leave. life, are thefewer available, opportunities andthelesspeoplefeel that theycanaffectthedevelopment in community they canmakeadifference theless apersonisparticipating In short, intheir communities). for (theextentto whichpeoplefeel civicengagement, andasenseofagency availability ofopportunities shows that thestrongest linkwithmigration ispeople’s tendency level ofcivicengagement, the contrast to ageneral for beliefthat themainpushfactor migration isunemployment, theUSEanalysis Low levels ofcivicempowerment isamajordriver ofmigration for bothyounger andolderpeople. drivers). are additionalspecific reasons withineachage group (see Annex A for afulllistofscores for these Ukraine. present sections thereasonsThe next why peoplewant to leave theirplace ofresidence ineastern Overall, thelevel ofcivicengagement intheregion islow, especiallyamongyoung men(seeFigure 2). 7 6 5 higher senseofagency, butlower levels ofcivicengagement compared to olderpeople. remain intheircommunity. truefor womenThis over isparticularly theageof35. Younger peoplehave a doesnotthinktheycanmakearealMore thanhalfofthepopulation ineastern difference Ukraine ifthey

or voting in elections. decidedto doso. easternpeople whoalready Ukraine left Civic engagement refers inlocalcouncil meetings, to improving engagement suchasparticipating invarioussocialandpolitical activities, common residential territory, Young peoplerefers to those18–35years old. Those aged 61 andolderhave beenexcluded from theanalysis asthisgroup exhibits amuchlower inclination to migrate. As USEfocuses onthecurrent residents ofeastern Ukraine,ananalysis ofmigration cannotbeautomatically extrapolated tendency to explain thereasons for why Dnipro Civic empowerment What drivesmigrationineasternUkraine? „ „ 5 Figure 2. All agegroups want to leave theirplace ofresidence similarreasons, for very althoughthere Range ofscoresRange Civic engagement Dnipropetrovsk region 2.7 Dnipro Zaporizhzhia regionZaporizhzhia Kharkiv regionKharkiv 0 2.5 2.2 1 South-West Donetsk Sea ofAzovSea West Donetsk 1.6 Centre Donetsk 3.0 2 1.8 North Donetsk South Donetsk 2.1 East Donetsk 2.4 2.2 3 contact line contact Donetsk 1.3 Luhansk Centre 2.3 region Donetsk 4 Luhansk North 2.3 contact line contact Luhansk Average scores 2.1 5 region Luhansk South Luhansk Luhansk East 2.0 2.6 6 7 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.5 8 Donetsk oblast Donetsk Luhansk oblast Contact line Five oblast 9 10 6 In In 7

4 UN SCORE for Eastern Ukraine MIGRATION TENDENCY IN EASTERN UKRAINE: NEGATIVE TRENDS IN DONETSK AND LUHANSK OBLASTS Age group 18–35years contact lineproximity effects. was controlled forage, gender, and settlementtype indicates thestrength The model of theimpact. lines Red linesindicate anegative andblue impact, Shadowed drivers are uniqueforeachof thegroups. Adverse experiences Civic empowerment Provision ofservices Level ofincome and Locality satisfaction economic security Support for EU Support destabilization Online media membership – Expectation Expectation of internal „ exposure apositive one. ofthearrows The thickness „ Figure 3. Main driversMain ofmigration by agegroup tendency MIGRATION TENDENCY Age group 36–60years Adverse experiences Civic empowerment Level ofincome and Locality satisfaction Employment status Political separatism Relationship to the Ukraine (friends or (friends Ukraine economic security conflict inEastern conflict Trust incentral Support for EU Support destabilization Online media membership competence Expectation Expectation White collar institutions of internal exposure family) 5 UN SCORE for Eastern Ukraine MIGRATION TENDENCY IN EASTERN UKRAINE: NEGATIVE TRENDS IN DONETSK AND LUHANSK OBLASTS due to low income, are not even expressing a wish to do so as there are few viable options for relocation. explanation isthat thosewhodonothave thefinancial resources to leave theirplace of residence, suchas higher thelevel themore ofincome that likelytheyare peoplereport, to want to move. Onepossible The third strongest driver ofmigration islevel ofincome, whichappliesequallyto bothagegroups. The residence orstay. time isessential for aperson’s andtheirdecisionto withtheir community leave satisfaction theirplace of rural areas. The SCORE Moldova analysis alsodemonstrates that having optionsfor spendingyour spare lackorabsence islowest Locality ofsuchactivities. satisfaction in report inLuhansk oblast, inparticular but thinkthat leisure intheirarea: andrecreational are asmuch40percent lacking opportunities to shows leave. satisfaction that, locality overall, Unpacking peopletend to besatisfied withtheirlocality Unsurprisingly, thelesssatisfied apersoniswiththeirplace of residence, themore likelytheyare to want isthesecondLocality strongest satisfaction driver for migration tendency, shared by bothagegroups. 9 8 Other, albeitlessinfluential, drivers ofmigration common tobothage tendency groups are: they willhave better chances elsewhere. cannot finditintheirplace of residence demonstrate more readiness risk movingto andbelieve that line.contact Ontheother hand, unemployed for people aged 36-60 who are work looking actively but andLuhansk ofDonetsk oblasts, are income sinceparts andeconomic reported lower security at the significantly higherinclinations linedonotreport the contact to migrate compared to residents ofother and are afraid to losewhat theyalready have, suchasaplace to live. This could explain why peoplealong This group of people also seems to negatively assess their chances to successfully settle in a newplace https://use.scoreforpeace.org/en/moldova/2018-General%20population-0 Online mediaconsumption aswell asotherindicators have beencontrolled for age, ofsettlement. sex and type „ „ „ „ „ „ „ „ and politicalrivalries, are inthefuture likelyto destabilize are thecountry more likelyto consider Fear ofdestabilization: Those whobelieve that internal factors, crime, suchasrising unemployment EU countries provide; driver may the reflect comparatively stronger jobincentives—availability and remuneration—that Ukraine’sthan those who do not support accession to the EU. Aside from this the political aspect, Political preferences: joining theEUhave Ukraine astronger wishtoThose migrate whosupport factors Other Level ofincome andeconomic security Locality satisfaction present outsidetheimmediate place ofresidence. media, compared to traditional media, which may greater bring awareness of attractive pull factors leave. Online mediaexposure: The more apersonusesonlinemedia,themore likelytheyare to want to and home is more likely to want to leave than those who have experiences; not had such direct/indirect member hasexperienced, atraumatic event suchasrobbery, physical from their assaultoreviction Adverse experiences: Apersonwhohaspersonallyexperienced, orfamily orwhoseclosefriend leaving thanthosewhodonotfear suchdevelopments; 9 This may be explained by greater exposure of information to a variety available on online 8 6 UN SCORE for Eastern Ukraine MIGRATION TENDENCY IN EASTERN UKRAINE: NEGATIVE TRENDS IN DONETSK AND LUHANSK OBLASTS economic, politicalandconflict-related factors, namely: Only the36–60agegroup islikelyto have incentives to leave theregion dueto anadditionalmixof justice low are amongyoung rated people. particularly themoreinfrastructure andpublicservices, likelytheyare to want to move. and Healthcare services to theless satisfied movemembersofthis group ofservices; are becauseofthelow quality with differences.important The firstisthat onlythe youngerpopulation, specifically driven youngmen,is that mostdrivers ofmigrationDespite thefact are common tendency to bothagegroups, there are person cannotmakeadifference strongly intheir community contribute to thewish to migrate. local institutions also makes no real difference, while trust in central institutions and the feeling that a a person’s feeling ofphysical doesnotseemto affecttheirdesire security to stay orleave. Trust in provednot to significanceof major be easternfor Ukraine. personalsecurity,These include that is, The USEanalysis shows that several thatmigration inother contexts underpin factors have tendency „ „ „ „ „ „ What donot affectmigration factors tendency? have to theconflict. suchconnections are conflict more inthearmed pronewho hasparticipated to want to leave thanthosewhodonot Relationship to theconflict: People, especially women, whohave afamilymemberorclosefriend to want to migrate; and controlled areas (NGCAs) outsideofUkraine,asopposedto beingreintegrated, are alsomore likely to migrate. leaving apoliticalsettlement oftheconflict thenon-government Those whosupport Parliament, are theCabinet more ahigherinclination ofMinisters, andthecourts likelyto report Political views: People whohave lower trustincentral institutionssuchasthepresident, the migrate; such skills. This driver is valid for men only. unemployed Being a higher inclination also predicts to as management, engineering andITwant to leave to alarger extentthanthosewhodonothave Employment: Those whohave assessedthemselves ascompetent inwhite collar professions such to youngerandolderresidents Migration driversspecific 7 UN SCORE for Eastern Ukraine MIGRATION TENDENCY IN EASTERN UKRAINE: NEGATIVE TRENDS IN DONETSK AND LUHANSK OBLASTS Given thesignificance for ofcivicempowerment factor migration asanexplanatory tendency, people are showing thehighestinclination to leave. on thedemographic composition ofeastern Ukraine,asthepopulation isalready aging andyoung have skills thestrongest inclination to migrate.white-collar Migration willalsohave negative effects residents withhigherincomes, that is, withresources to invest insmallandmediumbusinesses, and growth willaddto thelossofhumancapitalinregion, andsocialcohesion ofeastern Ukraine.It as A continued trend ofmigration willinevitablyhave long-term implications for thesustainability, from conflict. thearmed andmoredissatisfaction, context-specific factors, suchaslow levels ofcivicempowerment ortrauma People whoconsider are leaving easterndriven Ukraine by amixoftraditional factors, suchaslocality had, andcontinue to have, thehighestlevels exposure andindirect ofbothdirect to theconflict. economic growth anddevelopment, andLuhansk especiallyinDonetsk oblasts, where peoplehave remains ineastern above Ukraine Migration tendency alevel that canbeconsidered positive for entail acombination ofdifferent tailored activities to contextual anddemographic needs. andto building sustainableandattractivemigration ineastern Ukraine communities must tendency As theUSE analysis hasdemonstrated, designing that interventions willcontribute to mitigating population. and thestatus andpresence offormer combatants, whichare for ofmore thelocal importance butbysuch asRussianintervention, issuessuchasgrowing unemployment, crime, corruption Notably, residents are ineastern notdriven Ukraine to leave becauseofafear threats, ofexternal of internal threats, localdialogueandopen discussionsaround thesetopics shouldbeencouraged. As bothyounger andolderresidents are driven to leave becauseofhigh perception eastern Ukraine must beensured, withthedemandsofregional sothat peoplecanmatch labormarket. theirskills intheregion. access vocational to Equally important, quality opportunities training andeducation professionalsto by retain providing white-collar employment for themwithprospects high-skilled for isalsocrucialUnemployment activities SMEs. shouldbeaddressed It through income-generating and especiallyhealthcare andjustice,rated thelowest the two services by young peopleintheregion. for asInternet smallandrural toto communities, improve suchservices delivery, itisimportant service access to for leisure activities young peoplefrom rural areas improves. additionto access ensuring In so that to oblast or raion local prioritize mobility centersis important become more reachable, and (see e.g., networks road and weak quality transportation USEbrief outsideofmainpopulation centers. areactivities rural, ofeastern Ukraine Given withpoor that parts To investment increase satisfaction, locality mustbemadeinto bringing cultural andcommunity individuals resulted inapositive change. and disseminatingsharing civic success stories, where proposals and initiatives from ordinary aboutpositiveindividuals canbring changeintheircommunities, through canalsobenurtured consideration thevoices oftheirconstituents. The senseofagency, that is, thebeliefthat ordinary must includeafeedback backonhow element, theyhave where report theauthorities takeninto feeleastern Ukraine that theycannotmakeadifference intheircommunities, suchmechanisms processes through initiatives. orneighborhood loosecommunity ofpeoplein Since themajority mechanisms canbeformalized through localgovernment agenciesandcivilsociety, orinformal andissuesthat couldidentify motivate activities thisgroup to become more civically. active These processes isessential. As young menare under-represented itiscrucialto incivicactivities, focusing onestablishingmechanisms that allow for individualinputinto the local development Conclusions andrecommendations Key changes from 2017to 2018 ), it 8 UN SCORE for Eastern Ukraine MIGRATION TENDENCY IN EASTERN UKRAINE: NEGATIVE TRENDS IN DONETSK AND LUHANSK OBLASTS Adverse experiences Online mediaexposure Fear ofinternal destabilization oftheEUmembership Support Level ofincome Civic empowerment Locality satisfaction Scores formajormigrationdriversbyagegroup Annex A Indicator

18–35 1.2 6.5 6.3 5.2 4.5 4.5 6.4 (five oblasts) Average 36–60

1.0 4.9 6.4 4.6 3.7 4.6 6.4 18–35 0.9 6.9 6.5 4.9 3.9 4.3 5.6 Donetsk oblast 36–60 0.9 5.1 6.4 3.9 3.5 4.2 5.6 18–35 0.8 6.2 6.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.9 Luhansk oblast 36–60 0.9 4.8 6.9 3.3 3.0 4.1 5.0 9