californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE SUNDAY, JUNE 21, 2020

Note: We are the most accurate predictor of the winners of Southern California thoroughbred races at Santa Anita, Del Mar, and Los Alamitos for the few weeks they offer when the other two facilities are not in session.

MESSAGE BOARD TO MY SUBSCRIBERS

Today’s Card/Horsecellany

SATURDAY! WOW! WE HAD ELEVEN OF TWELVE WINNERS YESTERDAY, AND MOST WERE ONE OR TWO DEEP!

This is closeout Sunday, so we have lots of races to play/pay with. Today, we have twelve races, seven on the grass. There are four stakes races, The Siren Lure, Race 1, The San Juan Capistrano, Race 6, The Melair, Race 7, and The American, Race 10.

Today there are two things to keep in mind: (i) the mandatory payout on the Pick 6, and (ii) the possibility of closeout communism, if it exists. For the next two weeks we move to Los Alamitos, thoroughbreds of course. (I can’t even watch quarter horse races, almost as bad as harness races, lol.) On July 10 we will be at our summer home, Del Mar.

NEWS OF NOTE: Premier turf rider Keith Desormeaux is back, at least for today’s festivities. , former track announcer for Santa Anita, and erstwhile track announcer for Del Mar, won’t be calling the races at Del Mar this summer, apparently because he does not want to leave Minnesota due to COVID 19 concerns. Instead, we get the great Larry Collmus, late of Belmont fame. He made the call when won the triple crown at Belmont, to wit: “he’s just perfect…and now…he’s just…IMMORTAL!”

One of the best racing calls this guy has ever heard…

STAY HEALTHY…MY FRIENDS

______

NOTE: FOR THOSE WHO PLAY THE TRIFECTA AND SUPERFECTA, AND SUPER HIGH FIVE, AN ENHANCED VERSION (TOP FIVE HORSES) OF TODAY’S ANALYSIS IS AVAILABLE FOR TODAY AT THE LOW PRICE OF $5. Or, $20 for the Race Week (including Thursday-Sunday, or Friday-Sunday as the case may be). Or, you can do the weekend enhanced plan (Saturday-Sunday) for a mere $10.

New Long-Term Pricing discount for the Enhanced Analysis: You can purchase the Weekly Enhanced Analysis (3-5 races) for $500 for one year, $250 for six months. That is of course a 50% discount. You can purchase the weekend Enhanced Analysis for a year for $300. Or, you can purchase the weekend analysis for six months for $150. That is also a huge discount. The weekend Enhanced Analysis covers Saturday, Sunday and any Monday holiday. Special Projects As you know, californiawinning.com is available for various special projects for any race course which is covered by DRF. At any time, on at least three days’ notice, we can handicap a day’s race at any U.S. track, We have been charging $50 for a full day’s card, because I will be putting my usual 6-7 hours in, and the report is almost one-off (no one else will be interested in purchasing an analysis for that track). I acknowledge that while from my standpoint the $50 I charge is a “bargain” (I make less than minimum wage in the venture), it may still be deemed prohibitively expensive by the buyer. Therefore, the new price rules are, I will charge $5 per race, minimum three races (minimum charge $15). That is a lot easier on the buyer, and the buyer will select the three races he/she wants analyzed and the track. He/she can select three to seven races at $5 per race: the full card is still $50, UNLESS THERE ARE TEN OR MORE RACES, IN WHICH CASE, PRICE IS TBD. This will help if, say, you would like my thoughts on a particular stakes race or two or three at a “foreign” track--- one that is not in the three- track So Cal circuit we deal with. The “notice” rule still applies: you need to ask me if I will have time to do your project, and you still need to give me three days’ notice, please. I hope that this new pricing structure helps you to utilize this service economically. The full card as noted will still be a flat $50.

Thanks for reading this ladies and gents.

Just contact us at [email protected] for a special project. ______Clarification of the Nature of the Ultimate Pick of the Day, Penultimate Pick of the Day For new subscribers, ladies and gents, suppose, hypothetically of course, that in a graded stakes race today here at Santa Anita we found Man O War, [sic], Sea Biscuit, Justify, Secretariat, Curlin, Vasilika, City of Light and Fahan Mura in a field of nine. There is no way in that hypothetical race that any of the foregoing iconic equines would ever be the Ultimate Pick of the Day or even the Penultimate Pick of the Day. The point: The Ultimate Pick of the Day may or may not be the best that day. The Penultimate Pick of the Day may or may not be the second best horse racing that day. The Ultimate Pick of the Day is the horse that is most likely to win the race in which he/she has been entered. The Penultimate Pick of the Day is the second most likely horse to win his/her race. ______Post Time today is 12:30 PM PT, 3:30 PM ET

SUNDAY, JUNE 21, 2020 LEGAL: FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to “predict the future,” because it ain’t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn…so please stick with me if there are a few “speed-bumps” along the way.)

This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a “firm” turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded “fast.” Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my “Handicapping Tips” No. 6, “What If It Rains on Race Day?,” in this regard… californiawinning.com, Graded Selections….as follows…

Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race…I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively…however, as we all know, “a horse is a horse, of course, of course” on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day’s analysis and you will receive the next racing day’s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. ______

Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h…

Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a “Likeable Longshot”: it is a horse whom we do not “expect” to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other “mitigating factors” which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this “longshot” might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even… I am sure you get the idea now…don’t bet “the house”…but it makes an excellent “beer money,” as in Bud Light, bet!

How Fast are These Thoroughbreds Really Running in Races and Workouts?

I thought I would take a moment to let you in on what is perhaps a well-kept secret: the difference between a fantastic workout and a so-so workout is quite the fine line. So I have converted workout fractions to something we are all much more familiar with: miles per hour (“mph”).

A few preliminary facts are in order. I believe Dr. Fager holds the North American record for the mile: he did it in 1:321 in 1968, with a 134 pound rider aboard (Bill Shoemaker, I think)!!! That translates to an average speed of 38.94 mph.

As you know, quarter horses can attain speeds of 50 mph for a very short distance, usually 2600 feet or less.

Well, I am sure you have seen a usually inexperienced rider take that 20/1 longshot out to a big lead, hitting the quarter mile in 22 and maybe even the half at 44, did you ever wonder why he never wins? Well those times represent speeds in excess of 40 mph (40.8 to be exact), and no thoroughbred can run a mile or even a half mile in excess of 40 mph. So when you watch a race where the leader hits the quarter around 22 or the half around 44, you can bet (if you could) that he will not win the race. They simply cannot sustain that pace for six or eight furlongs.

Now let me show you a chart, with the most common workouts, 4f 5f and 6f, and the figures which I perceive to be mundane up to sublime for the respective workout.

Four furlong workouts:

Time MPH 48 seconds 37.4 47 38.19 46 39.02 45 (rare) 39.88

Five furlong workouts:

Time MPH 1:00 37.4 59 seconds 38.03 58 (rare) 38.68

Six furlong workouts:

Time MPH 1:14 36.38 1:13 36.88 1:12 (rare) 37.4

The point: the difference between a mundane workout and a fantastic workout is nominally about 1 mph. This speaks as much to the talent of these exceptional equine athletes as much as anything else.

As for me, the workouts that really catch my eye, especially if they are the most recent (we are, after all, seeking to measure trends when we handicap), are: Six furlongs faster than 1:13; five furlongs faster than 1:00; and four furlongs faster than 48. Each of those levels of exercise is rather uncommon, and I have found over the years, subject to the “morning glory” phenomenon (the horse works great but develops “stage fright” when pitted against other horses in a race) a very recent workout at those levels portends a good race. Naturally, if the race is one mile, for example, I tend to discount somewhat a four- furlong workout.

The extent to which workouts are used by a handicapper is of course a matter of personal choice, and I am sure some of you attach great weight to same, while others give little or no credence to same. That is why handicapping is an art not a science. ______

ULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: not available in free version

PENULTIMATE PICK OF THE DAY: not available in free version

Thought for the Day: “the jockey can lose the race, but it is the horse that wins the race…”

RACES 3-6

***** RACE 3 very closely graded

Only two entries raced, and only Claw raced at RD- he hit the board here in his debut.

Speaking of Claw, the colt also has a good trainer and sports a string of decent works, like four furlongs at 48 flat two weeks ago. Dr. Schivel is the stark ML favorite, as the first-time starter sports a string of nearly spectacular works, not the least of which is the very relevant four-furlong work six days ago--- a bullet 463. Ambivalent is another first-time starter, with a good trainer, works are steady and strong and he will battle.

RACE 4

Six of the entries raced, four in the turf sprint, at RD. And, all four hit the board.

Lets Get Wild carries seven to thirteen pounds less rider weight than all other entries, akin to getting a major head start in such a short race, and she hit the board in all three of her races on the grass at RD, her most recent three races, works are decent as well. Bella Chica is the stark ML favorite, as she hit the board in all four of her turf sprints, three at RD, she missed a win at RD by a nose last time out with the excellent turf rider Rispoli aboard. Ride Sally Ride hit the board in three of four turf races, two of three at RD, works are steady and strong and it is hard to count Prat out of any race.

Queensbeccaandjane is a Likeable Longshot, at a ML of 20/1: now she races off only eight days rest, but may not have a problem with that, plus she has not worked for a couple of weeks, she hit the board in two of three races on the main, and her works are top-tier, like four furlongs at 473 a month ago.

RACE 5

All of the contestants raced at RD, and four of them won , once.

Your Royal Coil hit the board in four of five dirt sprints, and won here at RD in February, the rider knows her well and she looks great in this spot. Awesome Amanda won here last time out at RD more than a year ago, she hit the board in three of four dirt sprints, two of three at RD, and he connections are beyond reproach. Mucho Macho Woman is the narrow ML favorite, despite the fact that she races off a mere eight days rest, she has never excelled off short rest in the past, typically two weeks rest, so I don’t expect her to win this race, the strong of works is very good and she drops in class, and she won by nine lengths here at RD plus 330 feet, but that was after three months of rest, I don’t think she can win this.

RACE 6 THE SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO, GRADE II, ONE AND THREE- QUARTER MILES, TURF COURSE ($100000)

All raced the turf route, however only Red King raced at this loooong distance, and he did hit the board at such on the turf, here one year ago, he wins 20% of his turf routes, and invariably hits the board ( he missed only once in the last dozen races), the top 2019 earner has a fine turf rider to boot. Ward ‘n Jerry, racing off a mere fifteen days rest, is the very prohibitive ML favorite, as he won handily at one and one-half miles on the grass last December, but even that is 1,320 feet shorter than this race, this top 2020 earner has never raced off such short rest in the past so it is hard to predict what the effect will be, he has an elite rider and has not worked for three weeks. Tintoretto won back home in Germany on the grass at one and one-half miles and at one and three-eight miles, the latter win coming by some seventeen lengths, he improves incrementally each time out and his last four turf routes have been well-executed, watch him.

*****

Likeable Longshot(s): (there are several today but except as above they are not available in this free version…you can go to “Today’s Full Race Card” on this site and purchase today’s full analysis for a mere $5, less than you pay for your DRF or Racing Form, and they don’t handicap for you…OR you can subscribe for THIRTY (30) calendar days for a mere $20, at the same location on this website…you can also pay at PayPal.me/SailorBoston if you have a PayPal account.)

MAY THE HORSE BE WITH YOU!

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(Pick 6)”… It’s a can’t miss…and the latest one, “What If It Rains on Race Day?” ______