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Singapore Stock Pulse Daily Focus Singapore Stock Pulse Refer to important disclosures at the end of each report DBS Equity Research 5 Mar 2020 Market Cap: US$37,268m | Average Daily Value: US$70.43m Yeo Kee Yan, CMT [email protected] Singapore Research Team Last Traded Price: S$29.99; Price Target: S$33.20 (Upside 10.7%) Sue LinResearch LIM / Rui WenCall LIMAlert • Singapore Strategy: The only thing to fear is fear itself Strong 1Q18; keep watch on dividends ahead • Trending Sectors: Singapore Banks: Further NIM pressures • • Trending1Q18 earnings Sectors: wereSingapore in line; Property: topline Three driven GLS largelysites attracted from higher collective NI M;bids lower of S$686m trading gains• offsetStock someto Wa tch:revenues SingTel: Negatives are priced in at 22% HoldCo. Discount • DBS Equity Picks: Remove UOB from Blue Chips category • Credit costs at new low of 23bps, guidance at 20-25bps possibly towards the lower end; still some buffers noted under the Expected Credit Losses line for other assets Market View Update • Positive outlook ahead, topline growth supported by lower credit costs; dividends The only thing to fear is fear itself shouldCovid be- 19sustainable playbook – at 5 stagesS$1.00 of percoronavirus year and experience could head higher Relieve or Complacency Fear Anger Recovery • Maintain BUY; TP at S$33.20 (1.5x FY18 BV); higherAcceptance dividends and lower credit •Current examples: •Current examples: •Current example: •Current example: Germany, Bahrain, Italy, South Korea, Singapore China costs are upside risks Kuwait, Australia, Japan •Outperformers: •Outperformers: US •Outperformers: Suburban malls, Manufacturing, •Outperformers: Medical supplies, F&B, e-commerce domestic consumer Medical supplies, pharmaceuticals, and internet services, domestic Read more..DBS Grouppharmaceuticals, Research. Equity groceries, telecom, services, telecom demand (F&B, groceries, telecom, e-commerce and •Underperformers: retail) e-commerce, internet services Travel and tourism •Underperformers: 30 internet services •Underperformers: (depending on Groceries, •Underperformers: Travel and tourism, global Covid-19 consumer staples Travel and tourism, cyclicals, consumer situation) cyclicals, consumer discretionary DBS Equity Research discretionary 5 June 2018 Source: DBS Bank Market• WeCap: identif US$37,268mied the following | Average stages ofDaily public/investor Value: US$70.43m emotions through the COVID-19 experience - complacency, fear, anger, relieve or acceptance, recovery - and the associated sector outperformers/underperformers Last Traded Price: S$29.99; Price Target: S$33.20 (Upside 10.7%) • We believe that China has started its recovery phase, Singapore is at relieve/acceptance Sue Lin• CovidLIM /- 19Rui situation Wen LIM in China has improved drastically Strong 1Q18; keep watch on dividends ahead ed: JS• / sa: PY, CS 1Q18 earnings were in line; topline driven largely from higher NIM; lower trading Daily Focus Singapore Stock Pulse - Unconfirmed sources suggest factory activities have recovered up to 70-80% of pre-COVID-19 levels and rising in provinces such as Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian and Jiangsu → Barring a sudden surge in new cases, factory activities could recover to pre-epidemic levels in the second half of March - Recent ratio of new cases in China over outside of China is around a quarter or less - Number of COVID-19 patients is currently 25,441 and declining at a rate of 2000 or higher per day → If this rate continues, there will be very few COVID-19 patients in 2 weeks’ time • Beneficiaries of China’s COVID-19 recovery and Singapore malls’ footfall recovery - Sunpower, Frencken, Yangzijiang, CapitaLand Retail China Trust, CapitaLand, CapitaLand Mall Trust, Mapletree Commercial Trust and Koufu • COVID-19 resilience list - AIMS, ESR REIT, StarHub, Netlink, AREIT, FCT, Sheng Siong and Thai Beverage Click here to find out more about our Covid-19 playbook and the 4QFY19 results review in our Singapore Strategy Ideas of the Day Actionable ideas by our analysts based on macro, industry or corporate developments Trending Sectors Singapore Banks Further NIM pressures • NIM likely to see more downside on surprise Fed cut • Keep watch on COVID-19 situation • Downgrade UOB to HOLD; TP S$25.50 on limited catalysts • Singapore banks’ share prices likely to be supported at 1.0x P/BV barring any major deterioration in asset quality Read more… OCBC UOB HOLD HOLD (downgrade from BUY) Last Traded Price: S$10.55 Last Traded Price: S$24.00 Price Target (12-mth): S$11.50 Price Target (12-mth): S$25.50 Upside 9% Upside 6.3% Singapore Property Three GLS sites attracted collective bids of S$686m • Three selected developers successfully added to their respective landbanks • Two adjacent sites at Canberra drew bids of up to S$650psf ppr; launch prices may range between S$1,300- 1,400 psf • EC site at Fernvale Lane saw 7 bids; FPL emerged as the highest; EC could be launched at S$1,200-1,300 psf • MCC Land came in second place for all three GLS sites Page 2 Daily Focus Singapore Stock Pulse Read more… CapitaLand City Developments UOL Group BUY BUY BUY Last Traded Price: S$3.64 Last Traded Price: S$9.91 Last Traded Price: S$7.40 Price Target (12-mth): S$4.50 Price Target (12-mth): S$13.00 Price Target (12-mth): S$9.50 Upside 23.3% Upside 31.2% Upside 28.4% Stocks to Watch Singtel : BUY Last Traded Price: S$2.97 Price Target (12-mth): S$3.52 (Prev S$3.63) Upside 18.5% Negatives are priced in at 22% HoldCo. Discount • Excluding National Broadband Network (NBN) fee, Australia business is likely to stabilise in FY21F; raise FY21F/22F earnings by 6%/8% • We estimate average free cash generation of 15Scts per share over FY20F-22F although divestments can help to sustain 17.5Scts dividend per share (DPS) • Maintain BUY with a slightly lower TP of S$3.52 Read more… DBS Equity Picks Our stock picks aim to help investors build a portfolio of Singapore stocks, based on their risk profiles. Stock picks are based on sectoral, fundamental, and technical analysis Remove UOB from Blue Chips category We remove the stock following our analyst downgrade to HOLD today on NIM pressure considering the FED emergency rate cut of 50bps and possible asset quality issues due to Covid-19. UOB returned c.-7.5% to underperform the STI by c.2.6%. Blue Chips CapitaLand Thai Beverage Public Company UOB Remove Entry Date: 2 Jan 2020 Entry Date: 17 Feb 2020 Entry Date: 29 Oct 2019 # of shares: 3,500 # of shares: 20,000 # of shares: 400 Entry Price: $0.785 Entry Price: $3.75 Entry Price: $26.09 Last Traded Price: S$0.785 Entry Date: 4 Feb 2020 Entry Date: 4 Feb 2020 # of shares: 1,500 # of shares: 200 Page 3 Daily Focus Singapore Stock Pulse Entry Price: $3.55 Entry Price: $25.30 Last Traded Price: S$3.640 Last Traded Price: S$24.000 Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd Entry Date: 2 Jan 2020 # of shares: 8,800 Entry Price: $1.12 Entry Date: 4 Feb 2020 # of shares: 4,000 Entry Price: $0.94 Last Traded Price: S$0.895 Growth CapitaLand Sunpower Group Ltd Entry Date: 2 Jan 2020 Entry Date: 3 Mar 2020 # of shares: 3,500 # of shares: 20,000 Entry Price: $0.53 Entry Price: $3.75 Last Traded Price: S$0.515 Entry Date: 4 Feb 2020 # of shares: 1,500 Entry Price: $3.55 Last Traded Price: S$3.640 Dividends CapitaLand Retail China Trust Koufu Group Limited Entry Date: 3 Mar 2020 Entry Date: 14 Oct 2019 # of shares: 8,000 # of shares: 12,000 Entry Price: $1.35 Entry Price: $0.725 Last Traded Price: S$1.450 Entry Date: 13 Nov 2019 # of shares: 4,800 Entry Price: $0.750 Last Traded Price: S$0.710 SIA Engineering StarHub Entry Date: 4 Nov 2019 Entry Date: 24 Feb 2020 # of shares: 4,500 # of shares: 8,000 Page 4 Daily Focus Singapore Stock Pulse Entry Price: $2.65 Entry Price: $1.52 Last Traded Price: S$2.410 Last Traded Price: S$1.500 Covid-19 Update Total Infections Daily New Infections 120,000 18,000 16,000 New infection classification 100,000 to include clinically 14,000 diagnosed cases 12,000 New infection 80,000 classification to include 10,000 clinically diagnosed cases 60,000 8,000 6,000 40,000 4,000 2,000 20,000 0 2-Feb 6-Feb 8-Feb -2,000 4-Feb 1-Mar 5-Mar 3-Mar 13-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 23-Jan 27-Jan 31-Jan 11-Jan 15-Jan 21-Jan 25-Jan 29-Jan 10-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 20-Feb 24-Feb 28-Feb 18-Feb 22-Feb 26-Feb 0 12-Feb 9-Jan 16-Jan 23-Jan 30-Jan 6-Feb 13-Feb 20-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar Mortality Rate Countries Infected 5.0% 90 4.5% 80 4.0% New infection classification 70 3.5% to include clinically diagnosed cases 60 3.0% 50 2.5% 40 2.0% 30 1.5% 20 1.0% 10 0.5% 0 0.0% 9-Jan 16-Jan 23-Jan 30-Jan 6-Feb 13-Feb 20-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar 9-Jan 16-Jan 23-Jan 30-Jan 6-Feb 13-Feb 20-Feb 27-Feb 5-Mar Source: Channel News Asia, DBS Bank Page 5 Daily Focus Singapore Stock Pulse Straits Times Index Year End Objective: 3,350 Support Current Resistance level Level 3,000 3,058 3,025 2,960 3,086 Source: DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P. 10 most active traded STI component stocks Prices as of Mkt Cap Company 4 Mar 20 Sector (S$m) Volume Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd 0.895 Industrial 3,507 51,603,800 Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust 3.330 REITs 12,049 45,223,700 CapitaLand Mall Trust 2.460 REITs 9,078 35,989,300 CapitaLand Commercial Trust 2.030 REITs 7,840 35,662,300 Singapore Telecommunications Ltd 2.970 Telecom 48,496 31,526,500 Mapletree Commercial Trust 2.240 REITs 7,409 29,311,800 Genting Singapore PLC 0.805 Consumer Services 9,712 23,569,800 Mapletree Logistics Trust 1.960 REITs 7,449 22,223,800 ComfortDelGro Corp Ltd 1.970 Consumer Services 4,267 11,901,600 DBS Group Holdings Ltd 23.910 Banks 61,167 10,258,700 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
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